Latest / Pod Save America / “Joementum!”

Transcript

“Joementum!” · Pod Save America

• 0:20
  Speaker 1: Welcome to Pod Save America. I'm Jon Favreau.
• 0:22
  Speaker 2: I'm Jon Lovett.
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: Tommy Vitor. On today's pod. Lovett talks with our old boss,
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: David Plouffe, about what to look for on Super Tuesday. Actually,
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: was he ever your boss? Oh, no, because he came
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: to the White House after you left. He's America's boss.
• 0:37
  Speaker 2: Honestly, though, I still report to him.
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: Okay, good.
• 0:39
  Speaker 3: He's got a book coming out.
• 0:40
  Speaker 4: Yeah, he does.
• 0:41
  Speaker 2: Two books.
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: Two books.
• 0:42
  Speaker 5: Amazing.
• 0:43
  Speaker 3: It's a lot of work.
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: I can barely read tweets. We'll also break down the
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: results of the South Carolina primary, which has reshaped the
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: Democratic race by reviving Joe Biden's candidacy and ending the
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: campaigns of Pete Buttigieg, Amy Klobuchar, and Tom Steyer. And
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: we'll spend some time on President Trump's response to the coronavirus,
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: which has been just as terrifying as you would expect.
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: Love it. How was the show this week?
• 1:03
  Speaker 2: Great love it or leave it with Fortune Femster and
• 1:05
  Speaker 2: Moshe Kosher. I also told the story of a camp
• 1:10
  Speaker 2: owner who tried to tell my mom I was gay,
• 1:12
  Speaker 2: but she did not figure it out.
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: Wait, what?
• 1:15
  Speaker 2: I was having a rough summer and I wasn't really
• 1:17
  Speaker 2: enjoying basketball.
• 1:19
  Speaker 4: Yeah.
• 1:20
  Speaker 2: And he said to my mother, Fran, for boys like
• 1:24
  Speaker 2: your son, that's why we do the musicals. What?
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: Is this like another version of Marvelous Mrs.
• 1:30
  Speaker 4: Maisel?
• 1:30
  Speaker 6: Yeah.
• 1:31
  Speaker 2: Well, I do believe Marvelous Mrs. Maisel could have taken
• 1:34
  Speaker 2: place at Camp Starlight. Anyway, continue.
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: Okay. We have some exciting news. We have a brand
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: new Crooked podcast called Hall of Shame. Yeah, that's right.
• 1:43
  Speaker 4: Clap.
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: Each week, Rachel Bonetta of Fox Sports and comedy writer
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: Rechna Freckbaum will break down some of the craziest scandals
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: in sports history, talk about why these stories matter... and
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: why they're still relevant today, you can check out Hollow
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: Shame's trailer and subscribe to the show now on Apple Podcasts, Spotify,
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: and wherever you listen to your podcasts.
• 2:01
  Speaker 2: I listened to the first episode, and I didn't want
• 2:04
  Speaker 2: to get out of my car until it was over.
• 2:06
  Speaker 2: You're going to really like it.
• 2:07
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I listened to two of them. They're hilarious, and
• 2:09
  Speaker 3: they're interesting stories that you may or may not know.
• 2:11
  Speaker 3: You don't have to be a sports fan to like
• 2:13
  Speaker 3: this show.
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: No, you probably don't.
• 2:14
  Speaker 3: Do you like funny people telling interesting stories?
• 2:16
  Speaker 2: Right.
• 2:17
  Speaker 3: Check it out.
• 2:17
  Speaker 2: You're going to love it.
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: Finally, tomorrow is Super Tuesday, as you all know. And
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: if you don't want to watch all the people on
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: cable news say the same thing for 10 hours in
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: a row, come watch us do it.
• 2:31
  Speaker 3: That is very self-aware. Fuck, I watched like eight hours
• 2:34
  Speaker 3: of cable news on Saturday.
• 2:35
  Speaker 2: Brutal. Brutal.
• 2:37
  Speaker 3: I'll be honest, I was hungover and feeling terrible and
• 2:39
  Speaker 3: didn't want to leave my house, but it was awful.
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: It was so redundant. Except for the people we like
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: on cable. We won't tell you which ones. But there's
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: some people who are really good to listen to.
• 2:47
  Speaker 2: It was great to see Gibbs.
• 2:48
  Speaker 3: It was great to see Pluff out there and Axe.
• 2:50
  Speaker 3: But like, It's just amazing how many hours in a
• 2:52
  Speaker 3: row you hear that turnout is important.
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: Anyway, come watch us because we've decided to do a
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: live stream. And you can watch the results with us
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: starting at 8 p.m. Eastern, 5 p.m. Pacific on YouTube.com
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: slash Crooked Media.
• 3:06
  Speaker 5: Love it.
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: Tommy, Dan, me, and Akilah and Gideon from What A Day.
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: And some special guests.
• 3:13
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: We're going to have a Steve Kornacki-like figure.
• 3:16
  Speaker 4: Yeah.
• 3:16
  Speaker 2: Let's just leave it at that.
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: We'll just leave it at that, too.
• 3:19
  Speaker 2: Let's leave it at that.
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: But anyway, you're going to want to tune in. YouTube.com
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: slash Crooked Media. Okay, let's get to the news. There
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: was no malarkey as far as the eye could see
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: on Saturday night as Vice President Joe Biden won his
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: first primary in the biggest state yet to vote by
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: the biggest margin we've seen so far. A 28-point victory
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: over Bernie Sanders in South Carolina, where the turnout has
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: now beaten the record set in 2008 in the primary.
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: With all precincts reporting... It's Biden at 48.4%, Bernie at 19.9%,
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: Tom Steyer at 11.3%, Pete at 8.2%, Warren at 7.1%,
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: and Amy Klobuchar at 3.1%. The estimated split of the
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: state's 54 delegates will be 39 for Biden and 15
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: for Bernie, which means Biden is now just six delegates
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: behind Bernie in the overall count. In his victory speech,
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: the former vice president said that South Carolina, quote, launched
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: our campaign on the path to defeating Donald Trump. and
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: made the most forceful case yet for his candidacy. Let's
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: take a listen.
• 4:14
  Speaker 7: And the decisions Democrats make all across America in the
• 4:17
  Speaker 7: next few days will determine what this party stands for,
• 4:22
  Speaker 7: what we believe, and what we'll get done.
• 4:24
  Speaker 6: If Democrats.
• 4:29
  Speaker 7: Nominate me, I believe we can beat Donald Trump.
• 4:42
  Speaker 8: Keep Nancy Pelosi in the House of Representatives as Speaker,
• 4:46
  Speaker 8: and take back the United States Senate.
• 4:50
  Speaker 5: So join us.
• 4:52
  Speaker 8: My fellow Democrats across America, join us. If Democrats want.
• 4:56
  Speaker 7: To nominate someone who will build on Obamacare, not scrap it,
• 5:02
  Speaker 7: take on the NRA and.
• 5:03
  Speaker 8: Gun manufacturers, not protect them, stand up and give the
• 5:08
  Speaker 8: poor a fighting chance for the middle class to get restored,
• 5:11
  Speaker 8: not raise their taxes and keep the promises we make,
• 5:15
  Speaker 8: then join us.
• 5:17
  Speaker 7: And if the Democrats want a nominee who's a Democrat.
• 5:21
  Speaker 6: A lifelong Democrat, a proud Democrat, An Obama-Biden Democrat will join.
• 5:43
  Speaker 4: Us.
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: Guys, after New Hampshire, Joe Biden's polling average over Bernie
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: Sanders in South Carolina was four points. He was outspent
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: on television 40 to 1, outorganized, and won the state
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: by 28 points. What do you think happened?
• 5:56
  Speaker 2: I think Jim Clyburn's endorsement was huge.
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: I think 49% of voters said it was an important
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: factor in their decision. I've never seen anything like that.
• 6:06
  Speaker 2: I also do think one, one thing we've seen throughout
• 6:08
  Speaker 2: this primary is that when a, a front runner emerges,
• 6:12
  Speaker 2: there is a buyer's remorse that sort of sets in, uh,
• 6:15
  Speaker 2: whether it's, uh, what happened to Warren, uh, uh, late
• 6:19
  Speaker 2: last year, uh, whether it's, uh, uh, Pete and, uh,
• 6:22
  Speaker 2: and Amy rising in New Hampshire. Uh, and now I
• 6:25
  Speaker 2: think with Biden in South Carolina, I think you see, um,
• 6:31
  Speaker 2: I think you see a desire to have an alternative and,
• 6:34
  Speaker 2: you know, how that plays out outside of a state
• 6:36
  Speaker 2: that is as favorable to Biden as South Carolina. I
• 6:38
  Speaker 2: don't think anybody knows.
• 6:39
  Speaker 5: Yeah.
• 6:39
  Speaker 3: I mean, you really can't stress enough how big a
• 6:41
  Speaker 3: win this was. It was an overwhelming victory for Biden.
• 6:44
  Speaker 3: And like John said, he was down to two or
• 6:45
  Speaker 3: three points in some polls after getting crushed in New Hampshire.
• 6:49
  Speaker 3: There was a lot of talk out of Bernie's camp
• 6:51
  Speaker 3: after the Nevada results that they were going to go
• 6:54
  Speaker 3: all in with a big ad buy in South Carolina
• 6:56
  Speaker 3: and really make a play there. And again, Biden fought
• 7:01
  Speaker 3: it off and had an enormous victory. The Clyburn endorsement is,
• 7:04
  Speaker 3: I think, a unique endorsement in maybe all of politics.
• 7:07
  Speaker 3: It's hard to imagine another person endorsing a candidate, and
• 7:11
  Speaker 3: then you get exit polls where 27% of voters said
• 7:14
  Speaker 3: the endorsement was the most important factor in their candidate choice.
• 7:17
  Speaker 3: That's astounding. That's a level of respect for an elected
• 7:21
  Speaker 3: official that maybe doesn't exist anywhere else.
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: Very impressive.
• 7:24
  Speaker 3: But also, Joe Biden... ran a great campaign over the
• 7:29
  Speaker 3: course of that last week. You know, he had that incredibly,
• 7:31
  Speaker 3: he had a strong debate. He had that powerful emotional
• 7:35
  Speaker 3: moment in his CNN town hall when he was talking
• 7:38
  Speaker 3: about loss in his personal life and loss in South Carolina.
• 7:42
  Speaker 3: And he brought that theme into the speech, which we'll
• 7:45
  Speaker 3: talk about later. But I mean, Joe Biden needs to
• 7:48
  Speaker 3: campaign like he did the last week going forward.
• 7:51
  Speaker 4: Yeah.
• 7:51
  Speaker 3: You know, let's just be honest. His campaign leading up
• 7:54
  Speaker 3: to Iowa and New Hampshire was bad. They ran a
• 7:56
  Speaker 3: bad race until then, and something caught hold inside of
• 7:59
  Speaker 3: him this week, and he just kicked ass.
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I think a few things, off what Lovett said,
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: there has been this sort of search for an alternative
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: to Bernie Sanders, or originally it wasn't even an alternative
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: specifically to Bernie Sanders, but just someone who could basically
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: lead the center-left of the Democratic Party. And I think
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: particularly college-educated voters, mostly white, who pay a lot of
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: attention to politics, have gone back and forth, you know,
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: very fluidly over the course of the primary. They liked Pete.
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: They liked Warren. Amy got a surge in New Hampshire, right?
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: And then it's just, they've gone back and forth between
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: all these candidates. When Bloomberg first entered the race, before
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: he took the debate stage, people were curious about Bloomberg, right?
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: And I think this started in Nevada, right? And it
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: didn't seem as apparent at first, but a strong second
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: in Nevada, right? And Bernie still won by a lot.
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: But the distance between Biden and the rest of the
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: field in Nevada was significant. And it also showed that
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: Joe Biden could do well in a diverse electorate and
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: that no other candidate in the race but Joe Biden
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: and Bernie Sanders could do well in a diverse electorate.
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: And so that started with Nevada. And then you had
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: the debate. You had the focus on Bernie. You had
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: a real concern that, you know, Bernie Sanders, despite polling,
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: shows that he's competitive with Trump. that you know once
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: you know dan's talked about this once more people found
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: out that he's a democratic socialist which a lot of
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: people don't know that it could be trouble for him
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: and so all of this sort of swirling in that
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: last week probably moved people to biden and of course
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: you know um he won people who decided in the
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: last couple days by a significant amount and a lot
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: of people decided in the last couple days i.
• 9:40
  Speaker 2: Also think that jim cliburn endorsement obviously it's significant for
• 9:43
  Speaker 2: all the ways in which jim cliburn is significant in
• 9:45
  Speaker 2: south carolina but there's also um Everyone's been paying attention.
• 9:48
  Speaker 2: Everyone's been watching this race. And what we've seen is
• 9:49
  Speaker 2: as we've gotten closer and closer to election day, Biden's
• 9:51
  Speaker 2: has done really poorly. That's what happened to me in Iowa.
• 9:53
  Speaker 2: That's what happened to him in New Hampshire. And Jim
• 9:56
  Speaker 2: Clyburn coming out there and saying, I'm voting for Joe
• 9:58
  Speaker 2: Biden and I want you to vote for Joe Biden.
• 10:00
  Speaker 2: is somewhat of incredible stature saying, I know how scared
• 10:02
  Speaker 2: you are. I know you don't know who's right. I
• 10:05
  Speaker 2: know you know, especially black people in South Carolina, just
• 10:08
  Speaker 2: how bad shit can get. And I'm pushing my chips
• 10:11
  Speaker 2: forward for Biden because I think this is the best
• 10:13
  Speaker 2: and safest place for us to rally behind a candidate
• 10:16
  Speaker 2: to make sure we have someone who can defeat Donald Trump.
• 10:18
  Speaker 2: And I think the power of that probably will have
• 10:20
  Speaker 2: impact outside of South Carolina because I think there's probably
• 10:23
  Speaker 2: a lot of people feeling the same way.
• 10:25
  Speaker 3: There's also, I think, some air cover from Joe Biden's
• 10:28
  Speaker 3: super PAC, which took that endorsement, put it in the
• 10:30
  Speaker 3: mail piece, put it on radio ads and blasted it
• 10:33
  Speaker 3: into every household of African-American voters. I mean, we're also
• 10:36
  Speaker 3: into the part of the campaign where we spend, us included,
• 10:40
  Speaker 3: so much time talking about momentum and who's up and
• 10:42
  Speaker 3: who's down. And then all along the demographics in South Carolina,
• 10:46
  Speaker 3: a heavy African-American electorate was seen as a strength for
• 10:49
  Speaker 3: Joe Biden. And we may just be at the place
• 10:51
  Speaker 3: where demographics becomes destiny and he continues to do well
• 10:55
  Speaker 3: in states like South Carolina with a larger African-American population
• 10:58
  Speaker 3: or southern states with a more moderate vote. But it's
• 11:01
  Speaker 3: funny because the narrative about Joe Biden that we all
• 11:04
  Speaker 3: know was like Scranton Joe, the guy who you send
• 11:06
  Speaker 3: to Pennsylvania and appeal to Midwestern voters. We haven't had
• 11:10
  Speaker 3: a chance to see that play out yet because Michigan
• 11:13
  Speaker 3: is March 10th, Wisconsin's April 7th, Pennsylvania's April 28th. But
• 11:17
  Speaker 3: that will be a key test for him because I
• 11:19
  Speaker 3: think that speaks to electability in a different way.
• 11:21
  Speaker 4: Yeah.
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: And I want to dig into the demographics here, too,
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: in the exit polling, because I think it's important to
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: understand that Joe Biden didn't just win South Carolina, but
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: he won so many different groups by such a large margin,
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: which could portend quite a bit for the future.
• 11:37
  Speaker 3: The only age he lost was 17 to 29.
• 11:40
  Speaker 2: Right.
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: And white voters, white voters.
• 11:42
  Speaker 4: Right.
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: He and Bernie basically won 17 to 29-year-old black voters
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: by two points, but that's pretty good to tie that.
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: So black voters made up 56% of the electorate. He
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: won them by 44 points. He won white voters by
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: 10 points. He won every age group, as we just said.
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: Even in the small number of Latino-heavy precincts, he beat
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: Bernie by 19 points. Biden won independents by 12 points,
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: moderate and conservative voters by 40 points, self-identified liberal voters
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: by 14 points. Biden won And the 48% of primary
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: voters who support Medicare for All, Biden won by 16 points.
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: Healthcare was the number one issue for voters, and Biden
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: won those voters by 28 points. And he also won
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: the 19% of first-time primary voters by 7 points. This
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: is worth talking about because this happened in New Hampshire
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: as well, where Pete basically tied Bernie among first-time voters
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: in New Hampshire. And now Joe Biden won them by
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: a significant margin in South Carolina. That is a real
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: challenge for Bernie Sanders moving forward because the crux of
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: his argument is that he can bring in new voters
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: to the electorate and win them by a large margin.
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: And while Bernie is certainly bringing in his share of
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: first-time voters in all these contests that we've seen, for
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: Biden to win them in South Carolina and Pete to
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: almost win them in New Hampshire, it says a lot.
• 12:59
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, this is something I talked about with
• 13:01
  Speaker 2: Plouffe briefly. Bernie has shown that he can excite millions
• 13:05
  Speaker 2: of people to donate to his campaign, to volunteer to
• 13:08
  Speaker 2: his campaign, but that has not yet translated in any
• 13:10
  Speaker 2: significant way into an increase in turnout, which you really
• 13:14
  Speaker 2: want to see because if you, you know, not just
• 13:17
  Speaker 2: because you want Bernie to win, but you want Bernie's
• 13:19
  Speaker 2: case to win. You want him to be accurate in
• 13:21
  Speaker 2: what he is saying about his ability to turn out
• 13:23
  Speaker 2: unlikely voters. And that said, you know, you can't translate
• 13:26
  Speaker 2: what happens in a primary to what will happen in
• 13:27
  Speaker 2: a general, but it is just a reason to, you know,
• 13:31
  Speaker 2: have a concern.
• 13:31
  Speaker 3: It's also interesting to watch how the makeup of the
• 13:34
  Speaker 3: primary electorate changes over the course of these states. I mean,
• 13:36
  Speaker 3: Iowa was overwhelmingly white, but it was also just overwhelmingly
• 13:40
  Speaker 3: a bunch of pundits, right, who were worried about electability.
• 13:43
  Speaker 3: Peter Hamby has written about this for Vanity Fair, has
• 13:46
  Speaker 3: been beating the drum on how the typical South Carolina
• 13:49
  Speaker 3: Democratic primary voter in 2016 was an African-American woman without
• 13:52
  Speaker 3: a college degree, making $ 50, 000 a year, who considers herself
• 13:55
  Speaker 3: moderate to slightly liberal and goes to church weekly, cares
• 13:58
  Speaker 3: about the economy, cares about health care. Like, that is...
• 14:01
  Speaker 3: that is your average voter probably across the country in
• 14:05
  Speaker 3: a lot of ways. And I think we're moving out of, hopefully,
• 14:09
  Speaker 3: the electability obsession season and can get to a bigger
• 14:13
  Speaker 3: message that's about the future of the country.
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: I do think that we'll have to watch going forward
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: out of South Carolina is, is Joe Biden's win in
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: South Carolina due to demographics or is it geographic, right?
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: And so do the voters in South Carolina can probably
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: be expected to perform similarly in the other Southern states
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: that we're going to see tomorrow. But as you go
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: on to other states, Michigan, Missouri, Illinois, Arizona, some states
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: like that, black voters act differently in different states. Latino
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: voters act differently in different states and white voters act
• 14:45
  Speaker 1: differently in different states as well. And so you have to,
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: you know, but I do want to say one thing
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: about the black vote in South Carolina too, because I've
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: seen a lot of pundits talk about how Black voters
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: tend to be more pragmatic, more focused on electability. There
• 14:57
  Speaker 1: was a question in the exit poll. They said, which
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: candidate better understands the concerns of racial and ethnic minorities?
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: And Joe Biden won that. 45% said Joe Biden is
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: the candidate who best understands the problems and concerns of
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: racial and ethnic minorities. Bernie Sanders was next at 20%.
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: That really tells you a lot about Joe Biden's connection
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: to black voters that goes beyond just simple electability concerns.
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: And I think You know, it's also sometimes just saying
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: that black voters only care about electability is really selling
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: them short because they, you know, Joe Biden's been sort
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: of undersold this whole campaign, too. But clearly in South Carolina,
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: there was a real connection that both black and white
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: voters felt with Joe Biden. And he did something well.
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: And that was the Clyburn endorsement as well. One thing
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: on turnout. So turnout was up by a quarter over
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: 2016 black voters. And then it doubled among white college-educated
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: suburban voters. Biden has been struggling with this last group.
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: This is the group that has gone back and forth
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: between Pete, Warren, Amy, and Biden, everyone else. If they
• 16:06
  Speaker 1: act like they did in South Carolina and other places,
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: things could turn very quickly. Because again, we have seen
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: that the turnout surges in the 2018 midterms and now
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: in the primaries. This was true in Iowa. This was
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: true in New Hampshire. And this is now true in
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: South Carolina. are around these suburban areas with mostly college-educated
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: white voters.
• 16:26
  Speaker 3: Shout out primaries over caucuses again, by the way.
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: I mean.
• 16:29
  Speaker 3: And like, you know what? Pete, we'll talk about later,
• 16:32
  Speaker 3: got screwed by the Iowa caucus results. Bernie, I think,
• 16:34
  Speaker 3: was seen early as a winner in Nevada, but not
• 16:36
  Speaker 3: as definitively as Biden won as early. I mean, it's just,
• 16:39
  Speaker 3: it's this process, man. We got to formalize some things.
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: Let's talk a little bit more about Bernie, who had
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: really gone in for the kill in South Carolina with
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: a lot of ad spending in the final week. It
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: didn't work. He gave a speech congratulating Biden while pushing
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: back on Biden's case for the presidency. Let's listen.
• 16:57
  Speaker 9: In my view, old-fashioned politics, the same old, same old
• 17:02
  Speaker 9: type of politics that doesn't excite anybody, that doesn't energize anybody.
• 17:08
  Speaker 4: That is not going to be the campaign that beats Trump.
• 17:15
  Speaker 4: In order to beat Trump, What we are going to have.
• 17:19
  Speaker 9: To do is speak to millions of working class people
• 17:23
  Speaker 9: who today are working two or three jobs. They're worried
• 17:26
  Speaker 9: about their kids. They're worried about their retirement. They can't
• 17:29
  Speaker 9: afford health care. And they are saying, who cares about me?
• 17:34
  Speaker 9: Who is worried about me? I've seen candidates run to
• 17:36
  Speaker 9: billionaire's homes to raise money. Is anybody worried about me
• 17:41
  Speaker 9: and my kids? And our job together is to reach
• 17:49
  Speaker 9: out to those working people and say, you know what?
• 17:52
  Speaker 9: We do care about you.
• 17:54
  Speaker 5: Join us.
• 17:54
  Speaker 9: Come on into our movement.
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: Guys, what does Bernie's performance in South Carolina tell us
• 18:01
  Speaker 1: about his challenges going forward?
• 18:04
  Speaker 3: I mean, I think it signals a challenge with African-American
• 18:08
  Speaker 3: voters and it signals a challenge with the Suburban voters
• 18:13
  Speaker 3: you were just talking about that made the difference in
• 18:15
  Speaker 3: a lot of these districts in 2018. I don't want
• 18:18
  Speaker 3: to overread it because when you win overwhelmingly in a state,
• 18:22
  Speaker 3: it will make every thinner sliced breakdown of the electorate
• 18:26
  Speaker 3: look like you're getting punished there as well.
• 18:29
  Speaker 2: And we had the opposite conversation in Nevada.
• 18:30
  Speaker 3: Exactly. And he has strength with Latino voters. But, you know,
• 18:34
  Speaker 3: it seems to speak to the fact that, and this
• 18:36
  Speaker 3: should not surprise anyone, that a more moderate electorate is
• 18:39
  Speaker 3: likely to be less supportive of Bernie in a primary.
• 18:42
  Speaker 2: Right.
• 18:42
  Speaker 1: And I also think, look, his favorability rating in the
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: exit poll was 43-51. The only two candidates behind him
• 18:49
  Speaker 1: were Amy Klobuchar and, by the way, Mike Bloomberg's favorability?
• 18:53
  Speaker 4: Brutal.
• 18:55
  Speaker 1: 26-66 among a Democratic electorate in South Carolina. What are
• 18:59
  Speaker 1: you doing, man?
• 19:00
  Speaker 2: Gonna need some more ads.
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: But look, that is, you know, Bernie's had incredibly high
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: favorability ratings in national polls in the Democratic Party, at
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: the highest of the field in many polls. And so
• 19:12
  Speaker 1: it was sort of interesting to see that in South Carolina.
• 19:15
  Speaker 1: I think his challenges is he has not been able
• 19:17
  Speaker 1: to expand beyond his current coalition in a primary setting.
• 19:22
  Speaker 2: Right.
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: So caucus, it's tough to judge Nevada. It's tough to
• 19:24
  Speaker 1: judge Iowa because there's so few voters that participate in
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: the caucus in general. But in the two primaries we've
• 19:31
  Speaker 1: seen so far, he has basically hit the his his
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: traditional ceiling, as they call it.
• 19:37
  Speaker 3: Right.
• 19:38
  Speaker 1: And so the question is, and look, in South Carolina,
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: he spent a lot of money, and not just money
• 19:42
  Speaker 1: on the air, a lot of time on the ground
• 19:45
  Speaker 1: since 2016 trying to expand his vote among the black electorates.
• 19:50
  Speaker 1: and with moderate whites, you know, to no good end. Now,
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: we could be sitting here Wednesday and he'll have these
• 19:56
  Speaker 1: giant victories in California and in Massachusetts and some other places.
• 20:00
  Speaker 1: And and perhaps we'll see something different. But if I
• 20:03
  Speaker 1: were the Sanders campaign, I wouldn't just look at it as, well,
• 20:06
  Speaker 1: this is a good state for Joe Biden. We should
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: move on. there are some challenges for Bernie Sanders now
• 20:10
  Speaker 1: in expanding this coalition that we've seen in a number
• 20:13
  Speaker 1: of States that I think he probably has to work on. Um,
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: the good thing is he does have cash, $ 46 million
• 20:18
  Speaker 1: raised in February.
• 20:19
  Speaker 2: That's incredible.
• 20:20
  Speaker 3: Although I think Dan was looking up what Obama raised after, uh,
• 20:24
  Speaker 3: in February of 2008, I think it was closer to
• 20:26
  Speaker 3: like 53 million.
• 20:27
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 20:28
  Speaker 3: So, but still, I mean, when you're outstripping your opponents
• 20:30
  Speaker 3: like that, it's incredible.
• 20:32
  Speaker 1: Uh, let's talk about the other candidates starting with the
• 20:33
  Speaker 1: two who dropped out. Um, The first to drop out
• 20:36
  Speaker 1: was Tom Steyer, who spent $ 160 million to get zero
• 20:39
  Speaker 1: delegates from four states. Guys, what did we learn from
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: Tom Steyer's experiment here?
• 20:46
  Speaker 2: What did we learn?
• 20:49
  Speaker 1: I mean, a billionaire came in, dropped $ 160 million, and
• 20:54
  Speaker 1: got zero delegates. What's the lesson?
• 20:56
  Speaker 2: That it takes more than money, obviously. I think Tom
• 20:59
  Speaker 2: Starr had a lot of problems with his campaign beyond
• 21:04
  Speaker 2: just the fact that he was sort of buying a
• 21:05
  Speaker 2: ticket to the race. He, at some point, would stake
• 21:09
  Speaker 2: out this sort of progressive vision, which I think competed
• 21:14
  Speaker 2: with Elizabeth Warren and certainly with Bernie Sanders. If you
• 21:17
  Speaker 2: want the most progressive person, there was a different option.
• 21:19
  Speaker 2: At times, he tried to stake out a more kind
• 21:21
  Speaker 2: of pragmatic, business-moderate role for himself. But of course, that
• 21:26
  Speaker 2: lane was very busy with, you know, Biden and Buttigieg
• 21:30
  Speaker 2: and Amy and others that came and went while Tom
• 21:33
  Speaker 2: Steyer was still there and competed with those there. And so,
• 21:35
  Speaker 2: you know, he struggled to identify why exactly he was
• 21:38
  Speaker 2: the best person to be the nominee. And having failed
• 21:41
  Speaker 2: to do that, he had no real role in the race.
• 21:44
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, listen, you know, I respect the way
• 21:46
  Speaker 3: Tom Steyer ran his campaign. He did not get up
• 21:49
  Speaker 3: on that stage and beat the shit out of a
• 21:51
  Speaker 3: bunch of Democrats. He was trying to advance progressive issues
• 21:53
  Speaker 3: from climate to criminal justice reform to you name it.
• 21:57
  Speaker 3: It's incredibly hard to run for president, even if you're
• 22:00
  Speaker 3: a billionaire. Most people are going to lose. Most people
• 22:05
  Speaker 3: probably shouldn't run, right? Because ultimately it's an incredibly difficult task.
• 22:11
  Speaker 3: I think that, you know, Any other year, he might
• 22:15
  Speaker 3: have had a little better chance. I just don't think
• 22:18
  Speaker 3: that it was the easiest year to come out of
• 22:21
  Speaker 3: nowhere and introduce yourself to a nation and ask them
• 22:23
  Speaker 3: to put their trust in you to win that election.
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I think the lesson is money can certainly buy
• 22:29
  Speaker 1: you attention, but then the rest is up to you
• 22:31
  Speaker 1: once the spotlight's on you, once people are watching those ads.
• 22:35
  Speaker 1: You need a message. And I remember all of us
• 22:37
  Speaker 1: saying when Tom Steyer got in the race that the
• 22:39
  Speaker 1: reason that we sort of liked him is his message
• 22:42
  Speaker 1: sounded a lot like Elizabeth Warren or Bernie Sanders, right? Like,
• 22:45
  Speaker 1: he's a progressive guy and a progressive message. But then
• 22:48
  Speaker 1: the question is, okay, well, why you and not them? And, look,
• 22:52
  Speaker 1: there could have been a case for why him and
• 22:54
  Speaker 1: not them, but he didn't really make it. And that's
• 22:56
  Speaker 1: sort of the story we can go from Beto to
• 22:59
  Speaker 1: Kamala to Cory Booker. Again, the story in this race
• 23:02
  Speaker 1: was in a very crowded field, which is what we had,
• 23:05
  Speaker 1: it is even more important to set yourself apart when
• 23:08
  Speaker 1: you do not have sky-high name ID like probably the
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: final two candidates in this race, Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders.
• 23:16
  Speaker 1: And if you were going to be a newcomer at
• 23:17
  Speaker 1: this time, when Donald Trump is president, sucking up a
• 23:20
  Speaker 1: lot of oxygen, everyone knows Joe Biden and everyone knows
• 23:22
  Speaker 1: Bernie Sanders. To get that attention, your message and why
• 23:26
  Speaker 1: you differentiated yourself from the rest of the field had
• 23:28
  Speaker 1: to be super sharp.
• 23:29
  Speaker 2: It's pretty amazing. This long, long primary, who are the,
• 23:32
  Speaker 2: right now, four standing? The four people who were most
• 23:35
  Speaker 2: well-known before the whole thing began.
• 23:36
  Speaker 1: That's right.
• 23:37
  Speaker 2: Bloomberg, Warren, Bernie, and Biden.
• 23:39
  Speaker 1: That's right. So the biggest announcement over the last couple
• 23:40
  Speaker 1: of days was from Pete Buttigieg. who ended his campaign
• 23:43
  Speaker 1: on Sunday night. The campaign had reportedly run out of
• 23:45
  Speaker 1: money ahead of Super Tuesday, where they were having a
• 23:48
  Speaker 1: tough time finding states to win. And Pete basically said
• 23:51
  Speaker 1: that he wanted to step aside so that the center-left
• 23:53
  Speaker 1: candidate could take on Bernie Sanders. He did not explicitly
• 23:56
  Speaker 1: endorse Joe Biden at the time, but right before we recorded,
• 23:59
  Speaker 1: there's news breaking that he will. Here's part of his
• 24:02
  Speaker 1: speech on Sunday night.
• 24:03
  Speaker 5: We cannot afford to miss this moment.
• 24:14
  Speaker 10: With every passing day, I am more and more convinced
• 24:16
  Speaker 10: that the only way we will defeat Trump and Trumpism
• 24:20
  Speaker 10: is with a new politics that gathers people together.
• 24:23
  Speaker 5: We need leadership to heal.
• 24:24
  Speaker 10: A divided nation, not drive us further apart. We need
• 24:28
  Speaker 10: a broad-based agenda that can truly deliver for the American people,
• 24:32
  Speaker 10: not one that gets lost in ideology. We need an
• 24:35
  Speaker 10: approach strong enough not only to win the White House,
• 24:38
  Speaker 10: but to hold the House, win the Senate, and send
• 24:41
  Speaker 10: Mitch McConnell into retirement.
• 24:54
  Speaker 5: And that broad and.
• 24:55
  Speaker 10: Inclusive politics, that is the politics that we have attempted
• 24:58
  Speaker 10: to model through this campaign.
• 25:00
  Speaker 5: That, I believe, is the way forward for our eventual nominee.
• 25:04
  Speaker 1: What did you guys think of Pete's decision?
• 25:05
  Speaker 2: I think it makes sense, you know, where he was.
• 25:09
  Speaker 2: You know, we had talked about this. He needed to
• 25:11
  Speaker 2: demonstrate that he could appeal to the base of the
• 25:13
  Speaker 2: Democratic Party in South Carolina, and he just wasn't able
• 25:15
  Speaker 2: to deliver on that, and that made it really hard
• 25:18
  Speaker 2: to argue for why he should stay in the race.
• 25:21
  Speaker 2: You know, I think you see in that speech, I think, Honestly,
• 25:23
  Speaker 2: I think you saw it in Chasten's speech and then
• 25:26
  Speaker 2: Mayor Pete's speech.
• 25:27
  Speaker 1: Chasten gave a very beautiful, moving speech, I thought.
• 25:30
  Speaker 2: Absolutely. It was a beautiful and moving speech. And I
• 25:32
  Speaker 2: think even in what Pete's saying, I think you see
• 25:34
  Speaker 2: his strengths and his weaknesses and sort of why a
• 25:37
  Speaker 2: gay mayor from South Bend, Indiana was able to outlast
• 25:40
  Speaker 2: so many more seasoned politicians. I think he's an incredibly
• 25:42
  Speaker 2: smart person. I think he's an incredibly strategic and thoughtful
• 25:46
  Speaker 2: person about why he was in this race and what
• 25:47
  Speaker 2: he brought to this race. At the same time, I
• 25:50
  Speaker 2: think what you heard in there is, I think, a
• 25:52
  Speaker 2: lot of rhetoric that and a lot of kind of
• 25:54
  Speaker 2: talking points that made it hard to really get to
• 25:57
  Speaker 2: know what was really driving his campaign, especially once he
• 26:01
  Speaker 2: started sort of shifting and trying to take on Bernie
• 26:04
  Speaker 2: as the race went on. But that said, you know,
• 26:06
  Speaker 2: I was so moved by Chasten. It's a classic case
• 26:10
  Speaker 2: of seeing someone you like a lot give a speech
• 26:13
  Speaker 2: about how much they love and believe in the person
• 26:14
  Speaker 2: they're with that tells you maybe Pete is a little
• 26:18
  Speaker 2: bit stiff and maybe he's not always the most open
• 26:20
  Speaker 2: about who he is. But in In Chaston's speech, I
• 26:22
  Speaker 2: think you saw why Pete was such a strong candidate
• 26:25
  Speaker 2: and why it did matter that we had a gay
• 26:28
  Speaker 2: candidate make it this far in this race.
• 26:30
  Speaker 5: Yeah.
• 26:31
  Speaker 3: I mean, it's historic, you know, and he won Iowa
• 26:34
  Speaker 3: and no one can ever take that away from him
• 26:35
  Speaker 3: except the Iowa Democratic Party tried, which is truly unfair,
• 26:40
  Speaker 3: you know, in the tail of the tape here. But,
• 26:42
  Speaker 3: you know. That aside, I believe what Pete said about
• 26:46
  Speaker 3: wanting to clear the moderate lane to go against Sanders.
• 26:49
  Speaker 3: I also think this is a decision that was born
• 26:51
  Speaker 3: out of necessity. I imagine fundraising is very hard when
• 26:53
  Speaker 3: you pull out the spreadsheet and look at the map
• 26:55
  Speaker 3: and try to decide where you'll get delegates. There weren't
• 26:57
  Speaker 3: a lot of options.
• 26:58
  Speaker 1: I agree with you guys.
• 26:59
  Speaker 3: The Chastin speech really choked me up. Pete also, when
• 27:03
  Speaker 3: he talked about his father and when he talked about
• 27:05
  Speaker 3: a young kid who might not think that there was
• 27:08
  Speaker 3: a place in politics for him or she were gay,
• 27:11
  Speaker 3: that is incredibly powerful moving thing. Um, you know, Pete
• 27:15
  Speaker 3: raised a hundred million dollars. He was the mayor of
• 27:18
  Speaker 3: South Bend. He was a hundred million dollars younger than us. Uh,
• 27:21
  Speaker 3: me at least, um, which is remarkable.
• 27:23
  Speaker 5: And, you know, I.
• 27:24
  Speaker 3: Think he will, he clearly is an incredibly talented person.
• 27:28
  Speaker 3: He's very smart. He got better and better and better
• 27:31
  Speaker 3: in debates and interviews as he went along. It was
• 27:33
  Speaker 3: impressive to watch. I did feel the same way as
• 27:35
  Speaker 3: you did love it at the end. Like I would
• 27:37
  Speaker 3: love to see Pete just grab the mic out of
• 27:41
  Speaker 3: the thing and say, fuck it, and just let rip
• 27:44
  Speaker 3: on what he really thinks. But maybe that's not who
• 27:46
  Speaker 3: he is.
• 27:49
  Speaker 1: I think who we saw is the real Pete. I
• 27:51
  Speaker 1: think that's who he is. Pete got a ton of
• 27:55
  Speaker 1: shit online, and we have criticized him at times, too.
• 27:59
  Speaker 1: But I think it's worth stopping. It is amazing that
• 28:02
  Speaker 1: a 37, now 38-year-old mayor from South Bend, Indiana, in
• 28:09
  Speaker 1: a field that was this crowded that we were just
• 28:11
  Speaker 1: talking about how hard it is to get attention with
• 28:13
  Speaker 1: this many big names, rocketed to the top of the
• 28:16
  Speaker 1: Democratic field, won the Iowa caucuses, the first openly gay
• 28:21
  Speaker 1: candidate to win a primary. That is a huge accomplishment.
• 28:25
  Speaker 1: And by the way, we've talked all the time on
• 28:28
  Speaker 1: the show about candidates who are inspiring people. Pete inspired
• 28:31
  Speaker 1: a lot of people. A lot of people were passionately
• 28:34
  Speaker 1: inspired by his candidacy. And that is not nothing. I
• 28:38
  Speaker 1: also think, by the way, that Pete's message is a
• 28:41
  Speaker 1: message that probably fits not only the Democratic electorate, but
• 28:44
  Speaker 1: the general electorate maybe better than anyone else's. And if
• 28:48
  Speaker 1: I were Joe Biden and Joe Biden's team, I would
• 28:50
  Speaker 1: look at all Pete's speeches and Pete's message. And I
• 28:53
  Speaker 1: would think about how to making sure that make sure
• 28:55
  Speaker 1: that was my message. In fairness to the Biden people,
• 28:57
  Speaker 1: that's a lot of Biden's message anyway. But sometimes Pete's
• 29:00
  Speaker 1: is even sharper. And in.
• 29:02
  Speaker 2: For any Pete fans out there, take solace in knowing
• 29:05
  Speaker 2: that he could run for president every four years until 2060.
• 29:09
  Speaker 2: And that would be the year he would be Bernie
• 29:10
  Speaker 2: Sanders age.
• 29:11
  Speaker 3: That is an incredible stat. Just incredible. And the fact
• 29:15
  Speaker 3: that Donald Trump is now the youngest male in the
• 29:17
  Speaker 3: race is a horrifying stat, but also relevant. Yeah, I mean,
• 29:21
  Speaker 3: to your point, like it does seem like I think
• 29:23
  Speaker 3: Pete is planning to about to has announced he's going
• 29:26
  Speaker 3: to endorse Joe Biden. It's more likely, though. that his
• 29:30
  Speaker 3: support gets sort of partially distributed to a bunch of
• 29:32
  Speaker 3: people because voters are complicated. FiveThirtyEight seems to think that
• 29:37
  Speaker 3: Pete dropping out will hurt Bernie because some of his
• 29:39
  Speaker 3: votes will go to Warren and Bloomberg and others who
• 29:42
  Speaker 3: are just at the threshold of 15% viability and seeking delegates.
• 29:46
  Speaker 3: I would just say to all of the campaigns out there,
• 29:48
  Speaker 3: or all supporters of all campaigns, if you want Pete's supporters,
• 29:52
  Speaker 3: maybe now is not the time to publish your mocking
• 29:55
  Speaker 3: high hopes dance on Instagram or Twitter or whatever. treat
• 29:59
  Speaker 3: people like human beings. Politics is pretty basic. If someone's
• 30:02
  Speaker 3: a dick to you, they're probably not going to come
• 30:03
  Speaker 3: to your side later on when you need them.
• 30:06
  Speaker 1: Movements are based on addition. That's just fucking basics. It's
• 30:09
  Speaker 1: just so childish, but whatever. So just as we were
• 30:12
  Speaker 1: about to record, Amy Klobuchar dropped out and endorsed Joe Biden.
• 30:17
  Speaker 1: Why do we think she did this today? And any
• 30:19
  Speaker 1: final thoughts on Klobuchar's candidacy?
• 30:23
  Speaker 2: I think she faced the same dilemma as a bunch
• 30:26
  Speaker 2: of other candidates, there really was no path to her
• 30:27
  Speaker 2: being the nominee. I wonder if they started getting a
• 30:29
  Speaker 2: little nervous about her, uh, not necessarily beating. I haven't,
• 30:33
  Speaker 2: I don't know exactly where the polls have been in Minnesota,
• 30:35
  Speaker 2: but if there was any concern about her not winning there,
• 30:37
  Speaker 2: I think it'd be smart for her to avoid that
• 30:38
  Speaker 2: because that's her, that was her sort of claim, uh,
• 30:41
  Speaker 2: to the race or the Midwest. Uh, you know, she
• 30:44
  Speaker 2: emerged as another almost center left alternative to Bernie. Uh,
• 30:50
  Speaker 2: she had a great debate performance that, uh, pushed her, uh, um, uh,
• 30:55
  Speaker 2: to the top of the field, probably denying Pete Buttigieg
• 30:58
  Speaker 2: a victory in New Hampshire. And given how she seems
• 31:03
  Speaker 2: to feel about Pete, she can take some comfort in that,
• 31:05
  Speaker 2: I guess.
• 31:06
  Speaker 6: Yes.
• 31:07
  Speaker 1: Amy Klobuchar conspired with the Iowa Democratic Party to both.
• 31:11
  Speaker 2: By the way, by the way, Kui Bono, she made
• 31:13
  Speaker 2: the app.
• 31:16
  Speaker 1: It was Amy all along.
• 31:17
  Speaker 2: Yeah, just Amy coding.
• 31:19
  Speaker 3: Yeah, look, when Klobuchar got in, I don't remember how
• 31:22
  Speaker 3: late it was in the process to But, you know,
• 31:24
  Speaker 3: I don't think a lot of people had her down
• 31:28
  Speaker 3: as being a top competitor.
• 31:29
  Speaker 5: I didn't.
• 31:29
  Speaker 3: I'll be honest. She's a really good politician.
• 31:32
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 31:33
  Speaker 3: And that's true out on the stump where we saw her.
• 31:36
  Speaker 3: That was obviously true in debates. I mean, she put
• 31:38
  Speaker 3: in one of the best performances of the entire election
• 31:40
  Speaker 3: in that New Hampshire debate. I also think she reached
• 31:42
  Speaker 3: people in a different way. Like she was able to
• 31:47
  Speaker 3: marry up a sort of moderate message with her values
• 31:49
  Speaker 3: and her biography in a way that was I think
• 31:52
  Speaker 3: impeachment probably stunted her growth in Iowa and ultimately helped
• 31:57
  Speaker 3: lead to the campaign ending faster than she wanted. But
• 31:59
  Speaker 3: I think she leaves this having done very well for herself.
• 32:03
  Speaker 4: Yes.
• 32:04
  Speaker 1: Stature improved. Stature improved. For sure. For Amy Klobuchar.
• 32:06
  Speaker 3: Same with Pete, obviously.
• 32:07
  Speaker 1: For sure.
• 32:08
  Speaker 2: I'll also just say, too, you know, as we look
• 32:10
  Speaker 2: at the field narrowing, one reason I think we're talking
• 32:13
  Speaker 2: about these candidates, whether it was moments for Kamala or
• 32:17
  Speaker 2: Booker or Beto or Amy Klobuchar or Mayor Pete, At
• 32:21
  Speaker 2: various moments throughout this campaign, each of these people has
• 32:24
  Speaker 2: articulated the best argument for a center-left Democratic nominee. And
• 32:29
  Speaker 2: now that these people are gone, it is incumbent upon
• 32:32
  Speaker 2: Joe Biden to finally make that argument and win that argument.
• 32:44
  Speaker 1: So we have Super Tuesday tomorrow where the remaining candidates
• 32:46
  Speaker 1: will compete are now Bernie Sanders, Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren,
• 32:50
  Speaker 1: and for the first time, Michael Bloomberg. This is it.
• 32:53
  Speaker 1: We're down to four, guys. And about a third of
• 32:57
  Speaker 1: the total delegates are up for grabs with states like California, Texas,
• 33:01
  Speaker 1: North Carolina, Massachusetts, and Virginia as the biggest prizes. As
• 33:04
  Speaker 1: a reminder, we're going to cover the big day in
• 33:06
  Speaker 1: full on Tuesday night during our live stream at youtube.com
• 33:08
  Speaker 1: slash frickinmedia. But for now, since we don't do predictions,
• 33:12
  Speaker 1: let's talk scenarios. What is a good plausible scenario for Biden?
• 33:17
  Speaker 1: And then let's talk more broadly about what does Biden
• 33:21
  Speaker 1: have to do message wise going forward now, which in
• 33:26
  Speaker 1: what could become a much narrower race here?
• 33:29
  Speaker 3: Biden said in that speech, for all those who have
• 33:31
  Speaker 3: been knocked down, counted out and left behind like this
• 33:33
  Speaker 3: victory is for you. And that's that's a bit of
• 33:36
  Speaker 3: an electability message, but that's not the core of it.
• 33:39
  Speaker 5: Right.
• 33:40
  Speaker 3: What is unique about Joe Biden is, and really makes
• 33:43
  Speaker 3: him unlike almost any other politician, is how much tragedy
• 33:46
  Speaker 3: he's endured in his own life and the way he
• 33:48
  Speaker 3: has taken that pain and used it to help other people.
• 33:52
  Speaker 3: And we have all heard these stories because we've worked
• 33:54
  Speaker 3: with him. We've heard from friends who are giving tours
• 33:57
  Speaker 3: to people who ran into Joe Biden in the hallway,
• 34:00
  Speaker 3: and he changed their life with a five-minute conversation about
• 34:04
  Speaker 3: loss and truly moved people. And That has come out
• 34:09
  Speaker 3: in special moments in this campaign, but the way he
• 34:12
  Speaker 3: tied the story of his loss to what South Carolina
• 34:16
  Speaker 3: experienced after the mother Emanuel church shooting and the progress
• 34:19
  Speaker 3: that state then made to take down the Confederate flag
• 34:22
  Speaker 3: felt to me perfectly suited for what has been a
• 34:25
  Speaker 3: moment of trauma in our politics. And I think if
• 34:28
  Speaker 3: he can make his bigger campaign about like healing and
• 34:31
  Speaker 3: redemption and progress and decency and bringing people together, That's
• 34:35
  Speaker 3: a bigger message than, hey, I can beat Trump or hey,
• 34:39
  Speaker 3: we don't want a revolution. We want evolution or whatever
• 34:42
  Speaker 3: the shit has been to date that actually draws people
• 34:44
  Speaker 3: in and speaks to you on an emotional level. And
• 34:46
  Speaker 3: I think that's why it felt so impressive. And it's
• 34:49
  Speaker 3: not a surprise, by the way, that he was disciplined.
• 34:52
  Speaker 3: He was on the prompter. It was a tight speech.
• 34:54
  Speaker 3: It was like 18 minutes, maybe less than that. It
• 34:57
  Speaker 3: was really well executed by Biden in his campaign.
• 35:00
  Speaker 1: Well, look, we've talked about this before. We know from
• 35:03
  Speaker 1: all the research that you know, whether it was the
• 35:06
  Speaker 1: focus groups I did in the wilderness, polls we've seen separately,
• 35:09
  Speaker 1: that there's sort of two major attacks on Trump that work, right?
• 35:13
  Speaker 1: Trump is chaos and division and is tiring, exhausting people.
• 35:19
  Speaker 1: And we just got to like get him out of
• 35:22
  Speaker 1: here and sort of bring the country back together. And
• 35:24
  Speaker 1: then there is Trump has been ineffective at dealing with
• 35:27
  Speaker 1: any of the problems that really affect people's lives, their
• 35:30
  Speaker 1: health insurance, their cost of living, stuff like that. And
• 35:32
  Speaker 1: You know, Bernie's been really good on that message and
• 35:34
  Speaker 1: Biden is good on the other message. And I think
• 35:37
  Speaker 1: the question for both of them is, can they sort
• 35:40
  Speaker 1: of get into each other's lane message wise? Look, I
• 35:42
  Speaker 1: thought that that speech in South Carolina was the best
• 35:45
  Speaker 1: speech that Joe Biden has given in the entire campaign.
• 35:48
  Speaker 1: And he if look, we have been pretty tough on
• 35:52
  Speaker 1: Joe Biden here. And I think part of the reason
• 35:54
  Speaker 1: that we've been tough on him is because we have
• 35:56
  Speaker 1: all seen him be so much better than he has
• 35:59
  Speaker 1: been through a lot of this campaign before. performance wise,
• 36:02
  Speaker 1: whether it's at debates, whether it's in speeches. And I
• 36:06
  Speaker 1: think that if Joe Biden can do what he did
• 36:09
  Speaker 1: on Saturday night, not just winning in South Carolina, but
• 36:12
  Speaker 1: the actual the message he delivered and the discipline with
• 36:14
  Speaker 1: which he delivered it. And look, he was pretty good
• 36:16
  Speaker 1: on the on the Sunday shows the next day, too.
• 36:18
  Speaker 1: He had more energy. He was happier. If he can
• 36:20
  Speaker 1: do that going forward, then he's going to be very competitive.
• 36:23
  Speaker 1: Like we have been saying for a long time that
• 36:27
  Speaker 1: Joe Biden, the happy warrior, needs to show up. finally
• 36:30
  Speaker 1: Joe Biden, the happy warrior, showed up on Saturday night.
• 36:32
  Speaker 1: And I think one of his biggest challenges in debates
• 36:34
  Speaker 1: has been this defensiveness, right, when people attack him. And
• 36:38
  Speaker 1: this is going to be a challenge for him going
• 36:39
  Speaker 1: forward because Bernie Sanders is going to come at him,
• 36:42
  Speaker 1: as Bernie Sanders should, because he's trying to win. And
• 36:45
  Speaker 1: if Joe Biden handles those attacks super defensive and angry,
• 36:50
  Speaker 1: it's not going to go well. But if he seems
• 36:51
  Speaker 1: like the happy warrior and he can brush it off,
• 36:54
  Speaker 1: he will succeed.
• 36:55
  Speaker 2: I think. Yeah, I think that's right. I agree. I
• 36:58
  Speaker 2: think it's the best speech Joe Biden has given in
• 37:00
  Speaker 2: this campaign, it was the best articulation of an argument.
• 37:03
  Speaker 2: I do think, you know, the part you played at
• 37:04
  Speaker 2: the beginning of the show of, of his sort of
• 37:06
  Speaker 2: hits on Bernie, um, you know, uh, you know, the
• 37:09
  Speaker 2: gun hits that he's not a Democrat hit. I feel
• 37:11
  Speaker 2: like that's, you know, I don't know if it's going
• 37:14
  Speaker 2: to work or not for me as it means to me,
• 37:15
  Speaker 2: it's the least effective, but yeah.
• 37:16
  Speaker 1: Can I just say one thing on that? Because I
• 37:18
  Speaker 1: was in this camp on the gun hit for a
• 37:20
  Speaker 1: while too, but in South Carolina and Jim Clyburn said
• 37:22
  Speaker 1: this in an interview, um, he said, people forget that
• 37:26
  Speaker 1: the mother Emanuel church, you know, was there, the shooting happened,
• 37:30
  Speaker 1: and that not just to, like, liberal white voters, but
• 37:33
  Speaker 1: to black voters, gun control is such an important issue
• 37:37
  Speaker 1: to the Democratic electorate in South Carolina, and for Joe
• 37:39
  Speaker 1: Biden to bring that up in the last week when
• 37:41
  Speaker 1: Bernie Sanders hasn't had the best record on gun control
• 37:44
  Speaker 1: actually was pretty powerful. I hadn't realized that.
• 37:45
  Speaker 3: I don't doubt the gun hit. It was the he's
• 37:47
  Speaker 3: not a Democrat.
• 37:47
  Speaker 2: Oh, yeah, I agree.
• 37:49
  Speaker 1: I just wanted to say that about the gun thing
• 37:50
  Speaker 1: because I hadn't heard that.
• 37:51
  Speaker 2: I think the Democrat hit is, I think, the smallest hit.
• 37:56
  Speaker 2: I'm not arguing whether or not the gun hit is...
• 37:58
  Speaker 2: effective or not i do find it to be given
• 38:00
  Speaker 2: where bernie's position on guns is now it's not the
• 38:02
  Speaker 2: most it's not actually the biggest contrast between them as candidates.
• 38:05
  Speaker 1: Well with that this is this is going to be
• 38:07
  Speaker 1: a big thing going forward right because i bet you
• 38:09
  Speaker 1: anything bernie's going to go and start saying you know
• 38:13
  Speaker 1: joe biden wanted to cut medicare and social security in
• 38:14
  Speaker 1: the past and biden's going to say he was bad
• 38:17
  Speaker 1: on guns in the past and it's going to be
• 38:18
  Speaker 1: an argument about past positions and the question is how
• 38:22
  Speaker 1: much the past positions that have changed matter to voters today.
• 38:25
  Speaker 5: Yeah, no, I agree.
• 38:26
  Speaker 2: The larger point I was getting at, though, is that
• 38:27
  Speaker 2: I think when we get to the speech about loss,
• 38:29
  Speaker 2: I was really like genuinely blown away by the speech
• 38:32
  Speaker 2: because it was very strong, but it was also incredibly
• 38:34
  Speaker 2: sophisticated in how it moved from, you know, he says plainly,
• 38:38
  Speaker 2: you know, Donald Trump has terrible policies. His policies are
• 38:41
  Speaker 2: very bad. But look at all the cruelty. Look at
• 38:43
  Speaker 2: all the meanness. I don't believe in that kind of America.
• 38:47
  Speaker 2: I believe in America where we treat each other better.
• 38:49
  Speaker 2: And that led into his understanding of loss and pain.
• 38:52
  Speaker 2: and how he can sort of unite people who are
• 38:55
  Speaker 2: going through terrible things. It was a, the Biden whose
• 38:57
  Speaker 2: candidacy is propelled by loss, propelled by trauma and pain
• 39:01
  Speaker 2: as a source of purpose in his own life. I
• 39:04
  Speaker 2: do think he seems to have been reluctant to make
• 39:06
  Speaker 2: that a part of his stump. And I understand that,
• 39:08
  Speaker 2: you know, I understand not wanting to go to that
• 39:10
  Speaker 2: well for the purposes of an election.
• 39:12
  Speaker 1: Well, especially, and, and, you know, he talks about an isolation.
• 39:15
  Speaker 1: We've heard him in some of these town halls talk
• 39:16
  Speaker 1: about it, but also connect it somehow to a message
• 39:19
  Speaker 1: without seeming Yeah, manipulative.
• 39:23
  Speaker 3: In the CNN town hall he did right before the
• 39:25
  Speaker 3: South Carolina election, he was talking to, I believe, the
• 39:27
  Speaker 3: pastor for Mother emmanuel and he was like talking about
• 39:31
  Speaker 3: how bo told him not to give up and what
• 39:32
  Speaker 3: he said is basically that staying in politics staying engaged
• 39:36
  Speaker 3: and trying to you know continue this mission that's been
• 39:39
  Speaker 3: his entire life's work is what kept him alive yeah
• 39:41
  Speaker 3: and that is a powerful powerful message there was.
• 39:44
  Speaker 1: Also by the way in a You know, the return
• 39:47
  Speaker 1: to sort of an electability message against Bernie, too, which
• 39:50
  Speaker 1: wasn't just based on polls, which Biden had previously based
• 39:53
  Speaker 1: it on. But you heard him talk about we've got
• 39:55
  Speaker 1: to keep Nancy Pelosi as speaker. We've got to take
• 39:58
  Speaker 1: back the Senate. And I bet he will probably use
• 40:01
  Speaker 1: that going forward, which, again, because polls go up and
• 40:04
  Speaker 1: polls go down. But you're going to start to see
• 40:07
  Speaker 1: sort of a flood of endorsements of people who have
• 40:10
  Speaker 1: won in tough areas. saying, as they have in some
• 40:14
  Speaker 1: of these suburban districts and some of these red places
• 40:17
  Speaker 1: from 18, Joe Biden can win here because I had
• 40:20
  Speaker 1: him come stump for me in 18, and he's the
• 40:23
  Speaker 1: only one that could come stump for me.
• 40:25
  Speaker 3: You're already seeing a bunch of them this morning.
• 40:26
  Speaker 11: You're right.
• 40:27
  Speaker 2: We should also, though, say that I think part of
• 40:29
  Speaker 2: the reason we're talking about Joe Biden's performance is right
• 40:32
  Speaker 2: now Bernie Sanders is the frontrunner. He is primed to
• 40:35
  Speaker 2: get the most delegates on Super Tuesday. He is in
• 40:37
  Speaker 2: a position to become the nominee. If Joe Biden wants
• 40:40
  Speaker 2: to have a chance at winning, the Joe Biden that
• 40:42
  Speaker 2: showed up in South Carolina that did that speech is
• 40:45
  Speaker 2: the only Joe Biden that could win. If he has
• 40:46
  Speaker 2: an incredibly bad debate, if he has some more sort
• 40:50
  Speaker 2: of rough moments, meandering moments, gaffes that make people once
• 40:54
  Speaker 2: again remember their serious concerns about him as our standard bearer,
• 41:00
  Speaker 2: we will very quickly forget about a South Carolina win.
• 41:03
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, I think we'll talk about Bernie in
• 41:05
  Speaker 1: a second, but both candidates have challenges. Biden's is almost
• 41:08
  Speaker 1: entirely performance-based. Bernie has other structural challenges, but Biden's is performance-based.
• 41:14
  Speaker 1: And I know how hard... I know some of his speechwriters.
• 41:18
  Speaker 1: I know the people that work for him. And it's
• 41:20
  Speaker 1: going to be a challenge to get Joe Biden to
• 41:22
  Speaker 1: go around to different events using a prompter and staying
• 41:24
  Speaker 1: on the same stump. If they want him to win
• 41:26
  Speaker 1: the nomination, it's an important challenge to meet. And if
• 41:29
  Speaker 1: he is our nominee, it is the most important challenge.
• 41:34
  Speaker 2: And also, I just think of also the challenge of
• 41:36
  Speaker 2: Joe Biden, who I think is... a difficult ship to steer.
• 41:40
  Speaker 11: Yeah.
• 41:40
  Speaker 2: And knowing that he needs to get it, he needs
• 41:42
  Speaker 2: to get it. But also, you know, I, I, I've
• 41:44
  Speaker 2: seen at times they kind of put in his hands,
• 41:47
  Speaker 2: a kind of message of the day that he's trying
• 41:48
  Speaker 2: to deliver. And he really struggles to kind of do
• 41:51
  Speaker 2: that hit in the midst of his stump. I just
• 41:53
  Speaker 2: think these are the kind of, that is not a,
• 41:55
  Speaker 2: that is just a challenge that the Joe Biden team
• 41:58
  Speaker 2: has in trying to keep their candidate in the news cycle,
• 42:00
  Speaker 2: delivering hits while recognizing that he has been, I think
• 42:04
  Speaker 2: not particularly live in.
• 42:05
  Speaker 1: So good plausible scenarios for Biden on Tuesday. Basically, he
• 42:09
  Speaker 1: needs to keep it somewhat close in California. So Joe
• 42:14
  Speaker 1: Biden needs to a cross the threshold of 15 percent
• 42:16
  Speaker 1: in California, which in some polls he hadn't been doing,
• 42:18
  Speaker 1: although there was one out today that had him up
• 42:20
  Speaker 1: at 22. He probably needs to keep it very close
• 42:22
  Speaker 1: or win in Texas. The way the delegates are split,
• 42:26
  Speaker 1: a win or a narrow loss are almost the same
• 42:27
  Speaker 1: in Texas compared when you look at all the delegates.
• 42:30
  Speaker 1: And then, of course, he has to win the South.
• 42:32
  Speaker 1: He has to win the Virginias, the North Carolinas, the Alabamas,
• 42:35
  Speaker 1: all those places. Tennessee, right. And then not get completely
• 42:40
  Speaker 1: blown out in some of the states that Bernie's going
• 42:42
  Speaker 1: to win, which is all possible now that as people
• 42:48
  Speaker 1: start consolidating and Amy and Pete drop out and start
• 42:51
  Speaker 1: consolidating around a center-left candidate. Let's talk about Bernie. Let's
• 42:54
  Speaker 1: talk about his– challenges going forward and then what a
• 42:57
  Speaker 1: good plausible scenario for him is. What does Bernie have
• 43:00
  Speaker 1: to do now that he's, you know, potentially facing just
• 43:03
  Speaker 1: a Joe Biden race going forward?
• 43:05
  Speaker 3: Well, I mean, I think that if Bernie comes out
• 43:07
  Speaker 3: of Super Tuesday with a 300 or more pledge delegate lead,
• 43:12
  Speaker 3: that begins to feel insurmountable for the other candidates.
• 43:15
  Speaker 1: And it could happen.
• 43:16
  Speaker 3: Steve Kornacki over at NBC has been like playing with
• 43:19
  Speaker 3: their delegate calculator thing. And he sort of figure out
• 43:22
  Speaker 3: what he thought was a best case for Biden, which
• 43:24
  Speaker 3: has Bernie ahead 590 to 529. And that's assuming Biden
• 43:29
  Speaker 3: gets like 19% of the vote in California. So Bernie
• 43:33
  Speaker 3: is very well positioned here. There is some national polling
• 43:37
  Speaker 3: out today that shows a pretty significant surge for Joe Biden,
• 43:42
  Speaker 3: up seven points from pre-South Carolina. And it has Bernie's
• 43:46
  Speaker 3: national support dipping 3% to 29%. But he's still In
• 43:51
  Speaker 3: a strong place. And when you look at a state
• 43:52
  Speaker 3: like California, where millions and millions of people have voted already,
• 43:55
  Speaker 3: it's always a question of how much momentum matters, how
• 43:58
  Speaker 3: much it's just demographics, how much of these votes are
• 44:00
  Speaker 3: locked in anyway.
• 44:01
  Speaker 1: Right.
• 44:02
  Speaker 2: We probably know half of California has already.
• 44:04
  Speaker 1: Cast their ballots. They think it'll be about 30 to
• 44:07
  Speaker 1: 40 percent.
• 44:08
  Speaker 2: Because people held their ballots.
• 44:09
  Speaker 1: Because a lot more people are.
• 44:10
  Speaker 4: Yeah.
• 44:11
  Speaker 1: Which is another sign for Biden, too, is that a
• 44:13
  Speaker 1: lot of people in California have held back their ballots. God,
• 44:15
  Speaker 1: you know what? In a fucking competitive primary like this,
• 44:17
  Speaker 1: everyone should hold back their ballots. This is why early
• 44:19
  Speaker 1: votes are a real problem.
• 44:20
  Speaker 6: Yeah.
• 44:21
  Speaker 3: But, you know, look, in California, I mean, Bernie could
• 44:22
  Speaker 3: get more than half of the state's delegates. And that's
• 44:25
  Speaker 3: a lot of delegates. There's 144 statewide and 271 that
• 44:27
  Speaker 3: are divvied up by the congressional district.
• 44:30
  Speaker 1: It's the biggest prize.
• 44:31
  Speaker 3: It's a huge prize. And Bernie has done really deliberate,
• 44:35
  Speaker 3: impressive work in Latinx communities. He's been organizing since 2016, basically. And,
• 44:41
  Speaker 3: you know, if that bears out and continues to pay
• 44:44
  Speaker 3: off for him in California, it will, you know, speak.
• 44:47
  Speaker 1: To an electability argument. Yeah, I mean, you started this
• 44:50
  Speaker 1: whole thing off by talking about demographics. You know, they
• 44:52
  Speaker 1: haven't all fallen into place yet, but it does seem
• 44:54
  Speaker 1: now like we have Bernie with real strength among Latino voters,
• 44:59
  Speaker 1: with Biden competitive, Biden with real strength among black voters,
• 45:02
  Speaker 1: with Bernie somewhat competitive, and the white voter has not really...
• 45:07
  Speaker 1: Non-college whites, unique in a Democratic primary, you have both
• 45:12
  Speaker 1: Bernie and Biden are pretty good with non-college white voters,
• 45:14
  Speaker 1: though Bernie's probably done a little better with them so far.
• 45:17
  Speaker 1: And then, of course, the college-educated white voter has been
• 45:19
  Speaker 1: the one who's all over the fucking map, going back
• 45:22
  Speaker 1: and forth between all the candidates. And so we're likely
• 45:24
  Speaker 1: to see that settle out after Super Tuesday. What do
• 45:26
  Speaker 1: you think about Bernie's sort of messaging challenges going forward?
• 45:30
  Speaker 1: I mean, I thought in that speech clip that we played,
• 45:34
  Speaker 1: him talking about sort of the same old politics– you know,
• 45:36
  Speaker 1: that's probably his best bet there.
• 45:39
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think it is. I don't know if this
• 45:41
  Speaker 2: is what's best for the primary or simply what's best
• 45:43
  Speaker 2: for Bernie as a potential nominee. The clip we played
• 45:45
  Speaker 2: about him talking about just who's fighting for me, who's
• 45:48
  Speaker 2: the person that's going to be on my side, or
• 45:49
  Speaker 2: whether it's Bernie saying, you know, think about someone in
• 45:53
  Speaker 2: your life, think about a stranger, are you willing to
• 45:55
  Speaker 2: fight for them? The positive part of that message, the
• 45:59
  Speaker 2: hopeful part of that message to me, I think he
• 46:01
  Speaker 2: delivers it. You know, there is going to be, if
• 46:04
  Speaker 2: Bernie Sanders is the Democratic nominee, there is going to
• 46:07
  Speaker 2: be a incredible crush of bad faith, intellectual bullshit coming
• 46:13
  Speaker 2: at us when it's us, that he is a radical,
• 46:16
  Speaker 2: that he's an extremist, that he's just like Trump, all
• 46:19
  Speaker 2: of this stuff that isn't true. And I think it's
• 46:23
  Speaker 2: just incumbent upon Bernie Sanders to be ready for that
• 46:26
  Speaker 2: by beginning to answer it now if he is going
• 46:29
  Speaker 2: to be the nominee. And I don't think that means
• 46:31
  Speaker 2: standing off his edges. I just think that means, you know,
• 46:33
  Speaker 2: speaking to the hope that he inspires in his supporters.
• 46:36
  Speaker 2: And I think that he's doing that more. And I just,
• 46:39
  Speaker 2: I think that that's a really good thing.
• 46:41
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, Bernie's obviously a great messenger. I mean,
• 46:43
  Speaker 3: look at what he's built since 2016. It's one of
• 46:46
  Speaker 3: the more astounding political stories of this decade. That said,
• 46:51
  Speaker 3: sometimes I think where he, what he lacks is a
• 46:54
  Speaker 3: willingness to connect on an emotional level. Like that 60
• 46:57
  Speaker 3: Minutes interview when they asked him about his mom getting
• 46:59
  Speaker 3: sick and that sort of helping him turn to making
• 47:03
  Speaker 3: health care and Medicare for all the cause of his life.
• 47:07
  Speaker 3: He didn't want to talk about that. And look, I
• 47:08
  Speaker 3: don't know the reasons why. I'm not criticizing him. I'm
• 47:11
  Speaker 3: just saying that when you tell those stories about yourself
• 47:14
  Speaker 3: in your biography and then you link it to your
• 47:16
  Speaker 3: policy views, I do think that's the most powerful way
• 47:20
  Speaker 3: to get people to believe you. And now I don't
• 47:22
  Speaker 3: think anyone looks at Bernie and thinks he doesn't mean
• 47:25
  Speaker 3: what he said. I think few people are more consistent
• 47:28
  Speaker 3: and authentic in terms of what they've thought over time.
• 47:31
  Speaker 3: but it's still going to be about connecting to people
• 47:33
  Speaker 3: that are still, as crazy as it sounds, hearing about
• 47:36
  Speaker 3: him for the first time.
• 47:38
  Speaker 1: And the reason that's so important, Tommy, is because the
• 47:42
  Speaker 1: perception of Bernie that is problematic, that's out there, and
• 47:47
  Speaker 1: it's just one, is that he is too far to
• 47:48
  Speaker 1: the left. He is a socialist. He is too radical.
• 47:51
  Speaker 1: He is too extreme to be a mainstream party's nominee
• 47:55
  Speaker 1: and to be the president of the United States. And
• 47:57
  Speaker 1: It's not just about because we've seen this with voters
• 47:59
  Speaker 1: to like voters don't just vote based on ideology. But
• 48:02
  Speaker 1: Dan was saying this in one of our pods. It's
• 48:04
  Speaker 1: more about an identity.
• 48:05
  Speaker 4: Right.
• 48:06
  Speaker 1: And they did this to Barack Obama, too. Barack Obama
• 48:08
  Speaker 1: is a foreign Kenyan born Muslim imposter who's going to
• 48:12
  Speaker 1: take over the country.
• 48:12
  Speaker 4: Right.
• 48:13
  Speaker 1: That's what we had to deal with. And the way
• 48:15
  Speaker 1: that we fought back against that with Obama was about
• 48:18
  Speaker 1: trying to, you know, project an identity that was fundamentally
• 48:22
  Speaker 1: American in its story. And Bernie Sanders needs to reassure voters,
• 48:27
  Speaker 1: both in the Democratic Party and writ large in the country,
• 48:30
  Speaker 1: that his story and his message and his beliefs are
• 48:34
  Speaker 1: fundamentally American as well. And I have seen him do that, right?
• 48:39
  Speaker 1: In 2016, there was the Simon and Garfunkel America ad
• 48:41
  Speaker 1: that was one of the most beautiful ads of the
• 48:43
  Speaker 1: cycle back then. And, you know, you can see it
• 48:46
  Speaker 1: in some of his rhetoric, the rhetoric that you were
• 48:47
  Speaker 1: talking about, about fighting for someone else as much as
• 48:50
  Speaker 1: you're willing to fight for yourself. That sort of positive,
• 48:52
  Speaker 1: uplifting message He needs to lean on that more than
• 48:56
  Speaker 1: just the anger. And I know that the left loves
• 48:59
  Speaker 1: the anger, and I know that the anger is part
• 49:01
  Speaker 1: of his message, and he shouldn't just get rid of
• 49:03
  Speaker 1: it completely. But I think without changing his policies, his principles,
• 49:07
  Speaker 1: don't want him to do anything like that, but the
• 49:09
  Speaker 1: message itself has to be more unifying and uplifting, I think,
• 49:13
  Speaker 1: or at least has to lean on that part.
• 49:14
  Speaker 3: No, anger is good. Anger has motivated a lot of
• 49:16
  Speaker 3: people uh, in the Trump era to, to protest and
• 49:18
  Speaker 3: to knock doors and to vote, you know, in primaries
• 49:20
  Speaker 3: they wouldn't have voted for. But I agree with you
• 49:23
  Speaker 3: in the general election longterm, you're going to need to
• 49:25
  Speaker 3: bring people out for both reasons.
• 49:27
  Speaker 1: And remember, it's always, it's anger on behalf of other people,
• 49:30
  Speaker 1: not anger at people like the democratic establishment. Like, you know,
• 49:34
  Speaker 1: that is only useful just to a point.
• 49:37
  Speaker 4: Yeah.
• 49:38
  Speaker 1: Um, So, yeah, so a good plausible scenario for Bernie,
• 49:41
  Speaker 1: like we said, is, you know, he keeps people under
• 49:44
  Speaker 1: the 15% threshold, other candidates in some of these states.
• 49:47
  Speaker 1: He could get the delegate total out of California alone
• 49:51
  Speaker 1: that he needs to almost have an insurmountable lead, and
• 49:54
  Speaker 1: then he's on his way. So he needs to rack
• 49:55
  Speaker 1: up a huge win in California, which, again, we're not
• 49:57
  Speaker 1: going to know for probably weeks because it's California. So
• 50:01
  Speaker 1: everyone put away your.
• 50:02
  Speaker 2: Especially if you have.
• 50:02
  Speaker 1: Everyone, before you start your conspiracy theories, just stop them
• 50:06
  Speaker 1: now because California is going to take A couple weeks.
• 50:09
  Speaker 1: That's important.
• 50:10
  Speaker 2: And especially when we see so many public polls that
• 50:13
  Speaker 2: show like Bloomberg or Warren or even Biden just about
• 50:17
  Speaker 2: the 15% threshold when that 15% threshold is so important.
• 50:20
  Speaker 2: We really may not know for days.
• 50:22
  Speaker 1: All right. Let's talk about the two other candidates competing
• 50:24
  Speaker 1: on Super Tuesday. Let's talk about Elizabeth Warren. So, you know,
• 50:30
  Speaker 1: Warren had another disappointing finish in South Carolina. She used
• 50:34
  Speaker 1: her speech that night to take on Bernie. She said,
• 50:36
  Speaker 1: This crisis demands more than a senator who has had
• 50:39
  Speaker 1: good ideas, but whose 30-year track record shows he consistently
• 50:41
  Speaker 1: calls for things he fails to get done and consistently
• 50:44
  Speaker 1: opposes things he nevertheless fails to stop. Her toughest hit
• 50:47
  Speaker 1: on Bernie yet. What do we think about Warren staying in?
• 50:51
  Speaker 1: Her campaign manager released a memo saying she's sort of
• 50:54
  Speaker 1: like in this to the convention. She thinks she's going
• 50:58
  Speaker 1: to get delegates in California and Massachusetts and a few
• 51:00
  Speaker 1: other states by being over 15%, which is certainly possible.
• 51:04
  Speaker 1: But what do we think?
• 51:06
  Speaker 2: I say this as someone who admires Elizabeth Warren so much.
• 51:11
  Speaker 2: One thing that has stuck with me is after the
• 51:14
  Speaker 2: Nevada caucus, Elizabeth Warren's campaign manager made the point that
• 51:19
  Speaker 2: Biden declining makes the race more fluid, that clearly their
• 51:24
  Speaker 2: hope is to be three left standing with a weak
• 51:27
  Speaker 2: Biden leaving more of an opening for Elizabeth Warren's candidacy.
• 51:31
  Speaker 2: The stronger Joe Biden does, the harder it is to
• 51:33
  Speaker 2: make that argument. And I think Uh, that's why I
• 51:37
  Speaker 2: think we've left with this sort of convention path as
• 51:39
  Speaker 2: a possibility. Now, I don't know how serious that is
• 51:42
  Speaker 2: about continuing all the way to the convention to become
• 51:44
  Speaker 2: the nominee. I don't know how much that about is
• 51:46
  Speaker 2: keeping your options open now, how much of that is
• 51:48
  Speaker 2: about leverage. Uh, but it's, uh, you know, I talked
• 51:50
  Speaker 2: about this with, with Plouffe. It's a pretty tough argument.
• 51:53
  Speaker 11: Yeah.
• 51:53
  Speaker 3: I mean, she's got a very tough path. Um, I
• 51:56
  Speaker 3: think she thinks she could get delegates in a bunch
• 51:59
  Speaker 3: of places. Like you take the argument at face value
• 52:01
  Speaker 3: that yes, I'm in this and I'm competing to the convention.
• 52:03
  Speaker 3: she could win delegates in a bunch of precincts and
• 52:05
  Speaker 3: have leverage to push policy views or whatever it is
• 52:08
  Speaker 3: she cares about deeply. I also think that, of course,
• 52:12
  Speaker 3: she has to say this. You can't signal to your voters, donors,
• 52:16
  Speaker 3: staff that you might drop out, right? Then there's blood
• 52:20
  Speaker 3: in the water and everyone attacks you. So I kind
• 52:21
  Speaker 3: of hate the period of time where everybody calls on
• 52:25
  Speaker 3: other candidates to drop out because there's no downside to
• 52:28
  Speaker 3: her competing, I don't think. I'm sure you could do
• 52:30
  Speaker 3: the math and crunch numbers and figure out, which candidates
• 52:34
  Speaker 3: it helps and hurts. But I think it's fine for
• 52:36
  Speaker 3: all these folks to stay in, mostly, until you get
• 52:40
  Speaker 3: to the debate stage. And I do think those debates
• 52:43
  Speaker 3: need to start shrinking down to clarify exactly what the
• 52:46
  Speaker 3: choice is. But I do think Warren has, in my opinion,
• 52:51
  Speaker 3: earned her right to compete on Super Tuesday. I think
• 52:54
  Speaker 3: that is less so for Bloomberg because he has not
• 52:57
  Speaker 3: competed in an election yet.
• 52:58
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I think with Warren, she must be thinking, okay...
• 53:03
  Speaker 1: I mean, Amy and Pete dropped out, right? It's down
• 53:06
  Speaker 1: to Biden and Bernie and Bloomberg and her. She wins
• 53:11
  Speaker 1: a bunch of delegates on Super Tuesday, probably doesn't win
• 53:13
  Speaker 1: a state, but maybe she wins Massachusetts and maybe she
• 53:16
  Speaker 1: crosses the 15% in California and she gets some delegates
• 53:19
  Speaker 1: other places. Now we're going to have a debate after
• 53:21
  Speaker 1: Super Tuesday. And she's probably thinking, if I can be
• 53:23
  Speaker 1: on stage as the alternative to these other two guys,
• 53:27
  Speaker 1: and maybe Bloomberg if he's still in it, then she
• 53:30
  Speaker 1: has more of a spotlight on her, and then it's
• 53:32
  Speaker 1: a long primary season, and maybe things change. Now, delegate-wise, math-wise,
• 53:38
  Speaker 1: it is a very tough path, because I don't think
• 53:41
  Speaker 1: at this point, and I don't know for sure, but
• 53:43
  Speaker 1: I think it's very, very tough math for her to
• 53:46
  Speaker 1: come into Milwaukee as a pledged delegate leader, but I
• 53:49
  Speaker 1: think that might not be the strategy, because as she said,
• 53:54
  Speaker 1: even though we've been saying the pledged delegate leader should
• 53:57
  Speaker 1: get the nomination, None of the other candidates except Bernie
• 54:00
  Speaker 1: are saying that. And it's unexpected what happens in Milwaukee.
• 54:04
  Speaker 1: And so what if you go into Milwaukee and there's
• 54:06
  Speaker 1: no pledged delegate leader, which now looks very likely or
• 54:11
  Speaker 1: more likely than it did last week for sure, then,
• 54:14
  Speaker 1: you know, maybe it's enough chaos. And if you've got
• 54:16
  Speaker 1: a bunch of delegates, you're a player. It's still a
• 54:19
  Speaker 1: hard argument for her to make because she's not going
• 54:21
  Speaker 1: to have the most popular vote or the most pledged delegates.
• 54:23
  Speaker 1: But I don't know. Maybe you stick around.
• 54:25
  Speaker 2: And what does being a player mean? Is this a
• 54:27
  Speaker 2: play to be vice president?
• 54:28
  Speaker 1: Is this a play to- Could be a bunch of
• 54:29
  Speaker 1: different things.
• 54:30
  Speaker 2: And you know what? Also too, Elizabeth Warren has run
• 54:37
  Speaker 2: an incredible campaign. She has put out plans that have,
• 54:41
  Speaker 2: I think, set the standard for democratic policymaking. She's excited
• 54:45
  Speaker 2: a lot of organizers. I think she has paid a
• 54:47
  Speaker 2: price for being a woman. She's also paid a price
• 54:50
  Speaker 2: for mistakes she's made in her race. But Every single
• 54:52
  Speaker 2: president of the United States has run a campaign that
• 54:54
  Speaker 2: was imperfect. So I understand staying in, and I agree
• 54:59
  Speaker 2: with Tommy. It is a reality. She is polling better
• 55:02
  Speaker 2: nationally than she has in some of these early states.
• 55:05
  Speaker 2: And she has not yet been to one of those
• 55:06
  Speaker 2: states where she has those higher poll numbers. And it
• 55:09
  Speaker 2: is an artifact of the process that we went from
• 55:12
  Speaker 2: Iowa to New Hampshire to Nevada to South Carolina before
• 55:15
  Speaker 2: getting to some of the places where she thought she
• 55:16
  Speaker 2: would perform better. She had an incredible debate in Nevada.
• 55:21
  Speaker 2: when a lot of people had already voted. I mean,
• 55:22
  Speaker 2: there's a lot of good reasons to say I should
• 55:25
  Speaker 2: stay in this fight. And as a person who has
• 55:27
  Speaker 2: built her campaign about being a fighter, I understand and
• 55:31
  Speaker 2: respect staying in the fight for all these people that
• 55:34
  Speaker 2: got behind you for the maybe dwindling but still real
• 55:37
  Speaker 2: chance of doing well.
• 55:39
  Speaker 1: And what about Mike Bloomberg, who's just rolling into Super Tuesday?
• 55:44
  Speaker 1: Mike Bloomberg, who entered the race partly because he was
• 55:48
  Speaker 1: concerned that Bernie Sanders would win the nomination and thought
• 55:50
  Speaker 1: that Joe Biden... didn't have what it takes to compete
• 55:54
  Speaker 1: and beat Bernie Sanders. And now there's a Biden resurgence.
• 55:58
  Speaker 1: And here is Mike Bloomberg competing for the first time
• 56:00
  Speaker 1: on Super Tuesday in any states after having spent, you know,
• 56:04
  Speaker 1: like half a billion dollars so far. Is that where
• 56:06
  Speaker 1: we're at?
• 56:07
  Speaker 2: Are we heading towards 650?
• 56:08
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I think so.
• 56:09
  Speaker 3: I mean, listen, maybe if he hadn't gone to that
• 56:14
  Speaker 3: debate and performed so terribly, we would be having a
• 56:16
  Speaker 3: different conversation right now. But I think his record, that performance,
• 56:21
  Speaker 3: it caught up to him. It undercut his entire rationale.
• 56:23
  Speaker 3: It showed how soft some of the numbers that had
• 56:26
  Speaker 3: been inflated by his ad spend were. I have nothing
• 56:30
  Speaker 3: bad to say about him. I just don't think he
• 56:33
  Speaker 3: has any rationale for staying in if the whole premise
• 56:35
  Speaker 3: was Biden's not doing well and he's the only one
• 56:38
  Speaker 3: who can win.
• 56:39
  Speaker 1: And I do think to voters out there, if, you know, look,
• 56:44
  Speaker 1: If you want Bernie Sanders to be the nominee, you
• 56:45
  Speaker 1: should definitely vote for Bernie Sanders tomorrow. If you don't,
• 56:49
  Speaker 1: then look, there's cases to vote for Elizabeth Warren because
• 56:53
  Speaker 1: she if she's above the 15 percent threshold, you know,
• 56:58
  Speaker 1: she sort of takes some delegates away from Bernie. And again,
• 57:00
  Speaker 1: she can amass them herself.
• 57:02
  Speaker 2: But and she cannot be the nominee if she's not.
• 57:04
  Speaker 2: If she doesn't get 15 percent in California, it starts
• 57:06
  Speaker 2: to really become very difficult.
• 57:07
  Speaker 1: But if you're trying to decide between a Joe Biden
• 57:09
  Speaker 1: and a Mike Bloomberg, I do not know why you
• 57:11
  Speaker 1: would vote for Mike Bloomberg. His polling numbers are falling.
• 57:18
  Speaker 1: You saw this favorability rating in South Carolina, 2266 among Democrats.
• 57:23
  Speaker 1: And now in these general election matchup polls, he is
• 57:25
  Speaker 1: at the bottom of the list in Democrats who are
• 57:27
  Speaker 1: competitive against Donald Trump. And his whole case was electability.
• 57:30
  Speaker 1: He has spent a lot of money. It just hasn't
• 57:33
  Speaker 1: worked out for him. And Joe Biden is just in
• 57:36
  Speaker 1: a much better position.
• 57:38
  Speaker 2: I will say, too, I was actually thinking... when Howard
• 57:41
  Speaker 2: Schultz said that he was going to run as an independent,
• 57:44
  Speaker 2: I wrote a piece about Howard Schultz and how wrong
• 57:45
  Speaker 2: I thought it was to become a spoiler. And in
• 57:47
  Speaker 2: the piece, I said, look at Mike Bloomberg, considering running
• 57:50
  Speaker 2: as a Democrat, even though it's a long shot, because
• 57:53
  Speaker 2: he recognizes that that's the right thing to do in
• 57:57
  Speaker 2: a race like this. You know, Mike Bloomberg, Tom Steyer,
• 58:00
  Speaker 2: I don't want billionaires to be buying tickets to our debates.
• 58:02
  Speaker 2: I don't think that that's the right way to elect
• 58:04
  Speaker 2: a president. But that said... They entered our primary to
• 58:07
  Speaker 2: be part of the big conversation that we were going
• 58:09
  Speaker 2: to have together to choose a nominee. And I hope
• 58:12
  Speaker 2: that the same thought process that led him to make that,
• 58:14
  Speaker 2: I think, better decision than some others made leads him
• 58:16
  Speaker 2: to recognize that his place in this race does not
• 58:20
  Speaker 2: really make sense anymore.
• 58:21
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I think it would have been different, too, if
• 58:23
  Speaker 1: he had decided to compete in even just South Carolina,
• 58:26
  Speaker 1: you know, like just one race where he had to actually.
• 58:29
  Speaker 1: get in there, have the conversation, have this debate that
• 58:31
  Speaker 1: you're talking about earlier than just one performance one night.
• 58:34
  Speaker 2: And on television.
• 58:35
  Speaker 1: On television than one in South Carolina, which doesn't tell
• 58:37
  Speaker 1: you much. And then just a bunch of ads. Like
• 58:39
  Speaker 1: just more Mike Bloomberg in the race would have given him,
• 58:41
  Speaker 1: like we said with Warren, more of a right to
• 58:43
  Speaker 1: just like stay in for the long haul. And he just,
• 58:45
  Speaker 1: but it's been all an air war.
• 58:47
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 58:47
  Speaker 1: And a couple of debate performances.
• 58:48
  Speaker 2: Mike Bloomberg, the candidate, did not rise to the occasion.
• 58:52
  Speaker 2: And that's all that counted. It's like so funny. Imagine
• 58:55
  Speaker 2: if he had shown up and just sort of crushed it,
• 58:56
  Speaker 2: been a different person. He would have said... Well, all.
• 59:00
  Speaker 1: These very nervous Democrats that were worried about, you know,
• 59:02
  Speaker 1: electability more than anything else and wanted a center-left candidate,
• 59:05
  Speaker 1: or in his case, a center candidate, might have gone
• 59:07
  Speaker 1: to him.
• 59:08
  Speaker 2: It turns out the naked cowboy was... staring at him
• 59:10
  Speaker 2: in the mirror, you know?
• 59:12
  Speaker 1: All right, let's end on a high note by talking
• 59:13
  Speaker 1: about the coronavirus, which has now infected more than 90,000
• 59:16
  Speaker 1: people worldwide and killed 3,000 here in the U.S. The
• 59:19
  Speaker 1: official count is now 88 cases and two deaths, both
• 59:22
  Speaker 1: older Americans with underlying health problems who lived in Washington state,
• 59:25
  Speaker 1: where experts now believe the virus could have spread undetected
• 59:28
  Speaker 1: for six weeks.
• 59:29
  Speaker 2: Yikes.
• 59:30
  Speaker 1: The Trump administration's response has been slow and confused at best,
• 59:34
  Speaker 1: with one senior official telling the Washington Post, quote, it's
• 59:37
  Speaker 1: complete chaos. Everyone is just trying to get a handle
• 59:39
  Speaker 1: on what the fuck is going on. Makes you sleep well. Guys,
• 59:43
  Speaker 1: let's start with the substance of Trump's response before we
• 59:45
  Speaker 1: get to the politics. We remember, of course, when the
• 59:48
  Speaker 1: Obama administration had to deal with the Ebola crisis. Where
• 59:50
  Speaker 1: has the coronavirus response fallen short so far?
• 59:54
  Speaker 8: Everywhere.
• 59:54
  Speaker 5: Everywhere.
• 59:55
  Speaker 3: Every single place. I mean, Barack Obama in 2014 led
• 59:58
  Speaker 3: the international Ebola response. They learned a lot. They set
• 1:00:01
  Speaker 3: up a bunch of infrastructure, including staffing and people in
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 3: the National Security Council. And, you know, you go down
• 1:00:06
  Speaker 3: the list and Trump got rid of it because he's
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 3: opposed to everything Obama does. On top of that, in
• 1:00:11
  Speaker 3: times of crisis, being seen as a credible, truthful messenger
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 3: is very important. And instead of telling the American people
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 3: hard truths, they have spun it every which way they
• 1:00:20
  Speaker 3: can to include putting Mike Pence on A guy who
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 3: doesn't believe in climate science, who helped spur an HIV
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 3: outbreak in the state of Indiana because of the crazy
• 1:00:30
  Speaker 3: position on needle exchanges, who wrote op-eds attacking fucking Mulan
• 1:00:34
  Speaker 3: in charge of this thing. He is a joke. This
• 1:00:37
  Speaker 3: response is a joke. And honestly, the fact that we
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 3: don't have an accurate, widespread testing process today means that
• 1:00:46
  Speaker 3: this virus is probably just all over the place and
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 3: we have no idea because we can't test for it.
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 3: So this has been a disaster. This is an incompetent president,
• 1:00:54
  Speaker 3: an incompetent team. And that press conference Saturday was as
• 1:00:59
  Speaker 3: chastened as I've ever seen Donald Trump. He clearly I
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 3: don't know that he cares about people dying, but I
• 1:01:05
  Speaker 3: think he cares about getting in himself. He's a selfish
• 1:01:07
  Speaker 3: prick and he cares about how bad this could be
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 3: for him politically.
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 1: Well, that that seems to be the overriding concern. Yeah.
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 1: What do you think?
• 1:01:14
  Speaker 2: I think what captures to me that, you know, the
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 2: danger of Donald Trump and what's actually happening, you have
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 2: Donald Trump get in front of the podium. And wave
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 2: around a piece of paper saying we're number one. And
• 1:01:25
  Speaker 2: everything's going to be fine. Don't worry. Because he's more
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 2: worried about the Dow than he is about people. And
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 2: then one by one, you have Trump fucking cronies get
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 2: up there and praise Donald Trump. Say how good a
• 1:01:39
  Speaker 2: job he's doing. While then slipping in, what Donald Trump
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 2: did was buy us time. Because they don't want to
• 1:01:45
  Speaker 2: disagree with Donald Trump in front of everybody. But they
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 2: want to let everyone know that things are about to
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 2: get worse. or you have Fauci and some of the
• 1:01:51
  Speaker 2: other serious, nonpartisan career experts coming to the podium, not
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 2: wanting to dispute Donald Trump in front of Donald Trump,
• 1:01:59
  Speaker 2: not because they're cowards, but because I think these are
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 2: serious people who want to make sure they're in the
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 2: position to do the most good, while trying to outline
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 2: for everyone just how serious this could get, how you
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 2: need to prepare, how you need to stock up, how
• 1:02:12
  Speaker 2: this is a moment to be ready for what comes next,
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 2: all sort of underneath all of those words, a warning
• 1:02:18
  Speaker 2: that that Donald Trump's rosy portrait is simply not accurate.
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 1: It's sort of the perfect storm of everything that Donald
• 1:02:24
  Speaker 1: Trump does poorly as president, right? So in preparation for
• 1:02:28
  Speaker 1: something like this, there was the budget that consistently cut
• 1:02:32
  Speaker 1: funding from the CDC. There was all of these positions
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 1: in the government that involved managing pandemics left open in
• 1:02:41
  Speaker 1: the administration because Donald Trump can't fill a lot of
• 1:02:44
  Speaker 1: vacancies in his administration. And then there's the response itself,
• 1:02:47
  Speaker 1: and I think the anecdote that was most telling that
• 1:02:49
  Speaker 1: was in that Washington Post piece is when the CDC
• 1:02:52
  Speaker 1: director went out a couple weeks ago and said, by
• 1:02:54
  Speaker 1: the way, this could get very bad and I just
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 1: want to prepare all Americans, Donald Trump's response to seeing
• 1:02:59
  Speaker 1: that was getting enraged and wanting to tell everyone that
• 1:03:02
  Speaker 1: it's fine because his overriding goal is to get elected.
• 1:03:05
  Speaker 1: Donald Trump cares about himself. He does not care about
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 1: anyone else as much as he cares about himself. And
• 1:03:10
  Speaker 1: he wants to get reelected, and so he wants the
• 1:03:11
  Speaker 1: markets to be calm because he thinks that a recession
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 1: could hurt him. And so... If that is his goal
• 1:03:16
  Speaker 1: and that's his incentive, that is good for his reelection.
• 1:03:20
  Speaker 1: It is very bad, very, very bad for a response
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 1: to a global pandemic. Because it means that he is
• 1:03:26
  Speaker 1: not telling people the truth. He is going to not
• 1:03:28
  Speaker 1: tell people when something is bad because he is too
• 1:03:31
  Speaker 1: afraid that, you know, his poll numbers are going to
• 1:03:34
  Speaker 1: go down.
• 1:03:34
  Speaker 2: I mean, you know, surfaces do not watch Fox News.
• 1:03:41
  Speaker 2: Viruses do not watch Fox News. You know, they... It
• 1:03:43
  Speaker 2: doesn't matter what rosy portrait Donald Trump paints. The reality
• 1:03:47
  Speaker 2: of a spreading illness is all that will ultimately matter,
• 1:03:53
  Speaker 2: which is why it's, you know, yes, obviously Donald Trump
• 1:03:55
  Speaker 2: only cares about his reelection. He's also an incredibly short-term thinker, right?
• 1:03:59
  Speaker 1: If he was- Well, the short-termism really hurts in a
• 1:04:02
  Speaker 1: crisis as well.
• 1:04:03
  Speaker 2: Right, it hurts all of us. And it's this crazy-
• 1:04:06
  Speaker 2: Gotta get through the news cycle. Gotta get through the
• 1:04:07
  Speaker 2: news cycle. But so like, think about what that means.
• 1:04:10
  Speaker 2: His lack of discipline and his narcissism And his desire
• 1:04:13
  Speaker 2: to just get to the next day not only means
• 1:04:15
  Speaker 2: he's like painting a rosy picture that may hurt all
• 1:04:18
  Speaker 2: of us. It doesn't help him. It doesn't help him.
• 1:04:20
  Speaker 2: It's only going to make matters worse for him.
• 1:04:22
  Speaker 1: And look, Obama dealt with this, right? Because of all people,
• 1:04:25
  Speaker 1: Donald Trump back then was tweeting up a storm about
• 1:04:28
  Speaker 1: how Obama has to close all the borders, stuff like that. And,
• 1:04:31
  Speaker 1: you know, it was a lot of political heat on Obama.
• 1:04:33
  Speaker 1: And what Obama did is talk to the experts and
• 1:04:35
  Speaker 1: talk to the scientists. And they said, well, no, you know,
• 1:04:37
  Speaker 1: closing the borders to, you know, stopping all flights to
• 1:04:40
  Speaker 1: Africa isn't actually going to, going to stop it because
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 1: we need to get health workers in there, we need
• 1:04:44
  Speaker 1: to help people, and that's going to be... And it
• 1:04:46
  Speaker 1: was the politically difficult thing for Obama to do, but
• 1:04:49
  Speaker 1: he did it anyway because he knew it would help
• 1:04:51
  Speaker 1: the crisis. Does anyone believe that Donald Trump will make
• 1:04:55
  Speaker 1: any decision around this crisis that is politically difficult?
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 3: No, he's not a tough news guy. In that press conference,
• 1:05:02
  Speaker 3: Trump only got animated when he was talking about markets
• 1:05:06
  Speaker 3: and the Fed and ways to juice the economy or
• 1:05:09
  Speaker 3: the economy that is... The economy as perceived by rich
• 1:05:12
  Speaker 3: people who own stocks. But he also had the nerve
• 1:05:16
  Speaker 3: to chase in the press and chase in Democrats for
• 1:05:19
  Speaker 3: being alarmist about coronavirus. When that asshole in his Twitter
• 1:05:23
  Speaker 3: feed in 2014 was like literally patient zero for spreading
• 1:05:28
  Speaker 3: fear and hysteria about Ebola. He did enormous and very
• 1:05:32
  Speaker 3: real damage back then.
• 1:05:33
  Speaker 1: Yeah, still doing it. You know, he's made himself the
• 1:05:36
  Speaker 1: real victim of this global pandemic. The main message from
• 1:05:39
  Speaker 1: Trump and his allies has been that the coronavirus is
• 1:05:41
  Speaker 1: just an excuse for Democrats and the media to take
• 1:05:43
  Speaker 1: down the president. Here's a clip of Trump at a
• 1:05:45
  Speaker 1: rally in South Carolina on Friday and then comments from
• 1:05:47
  Speaker 1: White House Chief of Staff Mick Mulvaney and Don Jr.
• 1:05:50
  Speaker 12: One of my people came up to me and said, Mr. President,
• 1:05:54
  Speaker 12: they tried to beat you on Russia, Russia, Russia.
• 1:05:57
  Speaker 5: That didn't work out too well. They couldn't do it.
• 1:06:01
  Speaker 12: They tried the impeachment hoax. That was not a perfect conversation.
• 1:06:08
  Speaker 12: They tried anything. They tried it over and over. They've
• 1:06:11
  Speaker 12: been doing it since you got in. It's all turning.
• 1:06:14
  Speaker 5: They lost. It's all turning. Think of it. Think of it.
• 1:06:18
  Speaker 5: And this is their new hoax.
• 1:06:20
  Speaker 13: We took extraordinary steps four or five weeks ago. Why
• 1:06:24
  Speaker 13: didn't you hear about it? What was still going on
• 1:06:26
  Speaker 13: four or five weeks ago?
• 1:06:28
  Speaker 1: Impeachment.
• 1:06:28
  Speaker 13: And that's all the press wanted to talk about. So
• 1:06:31
  Speaker 13: while real news was happening... and we were dealing with
• 1:06:35
  Speaker 13: it in a way that I think you folks would
• 1:06:36
  Speaker 13: be extraordinarily proud of, and that was serving the nation
• 1:06:39
  Speaker 13: extraordinarily well. The press was covering their hopes of the
• 1:06:46
  Speaker 13: day because they thought it would bring down the president.
• 1:06:48
  Speaker 13: The reason you're paying so much attention to it today
• 1:06:52
  Speaker 13: is that they think this is gonna be what brings
• 1:06:54
  Speaker 13: down the president. That's what this is all about.
• 1:06:56
  Speaker 14: We've seen this play out for four years. Anything that
• 1:06:58
  Speaker 14: they can use to try to hurt Trump, they will.
• 1:07:02
  Speaker 14: Anything he does in a positive sense, like you heard
• 1:07:05
  Speaker 14: from the reporter that was just suspended from ABC, they
• 1:07:07
  Speaker 14: will not give him credit for. The playbook is old
• 1:07:10
  Speaker 14: at this point. But for them to try to take
• 1:07:13
  Speaker 14: a pandemic and seemingly hope that it comes here and
• 1:07:16
  Speaker 14: kills millions of people so that they could end Donald
• 1:07:20
  Speaker 14: Trump's streak of winning is a new level of sickness.
• 1:07:24
  Speaker 14: You know, I don't know if this is coronavirus or
• 1:07:26
  Speaker 14: Trump derangement syndrome, but these people are infected badly.
• 1:07:30
  Speaker 3: I fucking hate that guy. The story of the Trump
• 1:07:33
  Speaker 3: era is no matter what is happening, no matter how
• 1:07:35
  Speaker 3: much they are winning or how much power they get,
• 1:07:37
  Speaker 3: they were always the victim.
• 1:07:38
  Speaker 9: Always.
• 1:07:39
  Speaker 3: Exhausting.
• 1:07:40
  Speaker 1: It is so exhausting. They will never grow up. Yeah,
• 1:07:42
  Speaker 1: someone definitely has a sickness, for sure.
• 1:07:44
  Speaker 2: It's, you know.
• 1:07:45
  Speaker 3: Probably you, greaseball.
• 1:07:47
  Speaker 2: He's going to get people killed. You know, MAGA hats
• 1:07:51
  Speaker 2: are not a vaccine, and it won't protect you from
• 1:07:55
  Speaker 2: an actual problem.
• 1:07:56
  Speaker 3: His political allies like Rush Limbaugh are trying to downplay it,
• 1:07:58
  Speaker 3: say this is just the common colds, you know, this
• 1:08:01
  Speaker 3: is media hype. I mean, look, we all should just
• 1:08:03
  Speaker 3: sort of be measured and try to be factual, but
• 1:08:06
  Speaker 3: I don't think that mocking accurate reporting about a disease,
• 1:08:10
  Speaker 3: a virus that could kill 2% of the world population
• 1:08:14
  Speaker 3: if it goes to pandemic mode is overheated.
• 1:08:17
  Speaker 1: No, they're doing this because they want any questioning or
• 1:08:21
  Speaker 1: scrutiny of their response to be seen as purely partisan
• 1:08:24
  Speaker 1: and political in nature. That's what they're trying to say.
• 1:08:25
  Speaker 1: And I think what Democrats have to remember is, like,
• 1:08:28
  Speaker 1: keep going. Like, you know, don't criticize them for things
• 1:08:30
  Speaker 1: that they don't need to be criticized for. But as
• 1:08:33
  Speaker 1: this response unfolds, where there are gaps, where there are problems,
• 1:08:36
  Speaker 1: where they have fucked up, We need to say so.
• 1:08:38
  Speaker 1: And we need to hammer it right to Trump. This
• 1:08:41
  Speaker 1: is the job.
• 1:08:42
  Speaker 3: Your job is to run the government in times of
• 1:08:44
  Speaker 3: duress like this. And he is failing.
• 1:08:46
  Speaker 1: And by the way, this is what people are concerned
• 1:08:49
  Speaker 1: about and have been most concerned about for the last
• 1:08:51
  Speaker 1: several years is that Trump's chaos and his tweeting and
• 1:08:56
  Speaker 1: his just like inability to focus on anything and care
• 1:08:59
  Speaker 1: about anything but himself. is going to lead to broader disaster.
• 1:09:02
  Speaker 1: And we and this is a this is one of
• 1:09:04
  Speaker 1: those cases. Yeah.
• 1:09:05
  Speaker 2: And look, and I think there's been this sort of
• 1:09:07
  Speaker 2: sense like, wow, we've you know, Trump has not had
• 1:09:09
  Speaker 2: to manage, you know, a crisis, a crisis on this scale.
• 1:09:15
  Speaker 1: Puerto Rico is the biggest.
• 1:09:16
  Speaker 2: That's what I was about to say. I mean, you know,
• 1:09:17
  Speaker 2: the one example we have, or one of the examples
• 1:09:20
  Speaker 2: we have is Puerto Rico, and he mismanaged it, politicized it,
• 1:09:26
  Speaker 2: treated those people to this day like objects, objects of
• 1:09:30
  Speaker 2: his own sort of personal animus.
• 1:09:32
  Speaker 1: American citizens.
• 1:09:33
  Speaker 2: American citizens. And so, you know, we know what Donald
• 1:09:36
  Speaker 2: Trump will do in a crisis like this. I do
• 1:09:37
  Speaker 2: think it is also incumbent upon Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders,
• 1:09:42
  Speaker 2: Elizabeth Warren to demonstrate through this campaign the kind of
• 1:09:45
  Speaker 2: leadership they will show in a moment of crisis like this.
• 1:09:48
  Speaker 1: Don't forget Mike Bloomberg's three-minute ad on coronavirus last night. Yeah.
• 1:09:56
  Speaker 2: But, you know, I think about 2008, you know, Barack
• 1:10:00
  Speaker 2: Obama runs on a campaign of change, of turning the page.
• 1:10:05
  Speaker 2: But ultimately, I think one of the reasons Barack Obama
• 1:10:07
  Speaker 2: was able to become president is not because of what
• 1:10:10
  Speaker 2: defined the primary campaign, but because outside of that messaging
• 1:10:13
  Speaker 2: was a person people recognized as intelligent, serious, smart, capable, reliable,
• 1:10:19
  Speaker 2: and up to the task of managing serious problems. And
• 1:10:22
  Speaker 2: so when the financial crisis hits, people felt that they
• 1:10:25
  Speaker 2: could put their faith in him. No one knows what's
• 1:10:27
  Speaker 2: going to happen with coronavirus or any of the other
• 1:10:32
  Speaker 2: potential problems that could happen between now and November, but
• 1:10:35
  Speaker 2: it's incumbent upon our candidates to demonstrate by contrast just
• 1:10:38
  Speaker 2: how much better a president they would be.
• 1:10:40
  Speaker 1: OK, when we come back, we will have Lovett's conversation
• 1:10:43
  Speaker 1: with David Plouffe.
• 1:10:54
  Speaker 2: He is President Barack Obama's campaign manager and senior advisor
• 1:10:57
  Speaker 2: and the author of two books coming out on Super Tuesday,
• 1:10:59
  Speaker 2: A Citizen's Guide to Beating Donald Trump and Ripples of Hope,
• 1:11:03
  Speaker 2: Your Guide to Electing a New President. He's also the
• 1:11:05
  Speaker 2: host of the podcast Campaign HQ. David Plouffe, welcome back
• 1:11:08
  Speaker 2: to Pod Save America.
• 1:11:10
  Speaker 11: John Lovett, it's great to be with you always.
• 1:11:12
  Speaker 2: So we are recording this conversation on Monday. On Saturday,
• 1:11:15
  Speaker 2: Joe Biden had a huge victory in South Carolina. On Tuesday, California, Texas,
• 1:11:20
  Speaker 2: 12 other states will hold primaries. Also, Democrats abroad will
• 1:11:25
  Speaker 2: have a caucus, as will American Samoa. So let's start
• 1:11:28
  Speaker 2: with Biden. You know, he had to win. He did.
• 1:11:31
  Speaker 2: In the days leading up to the South Carolina primary,
• 1:11:33
  Speaker 2: there was this question as to whether or not Biden
• 1:11:35
  Speaker 2: had possibly collapsed. It seems like the opposite has happened.
• 1:11:38
  Speaker 2: What did you learn from Biden's victory in South Carolina?
• 1:11:41
  Speaker 11: Well, it's interesting, John. I mean, you know, my sense
• 1:11:44
  Speaker 11: on this, and I've spoken about it publicly, was, you know,
• 1:11:47
  Speaker 11: Biden was a relatively strong national frontrunner who had that
• 1:11:49
  Speaker 11: firewall of South Carolina. The question was, how poorly would
• 1:11:53
  Speaker 11: he have to do in the first three states to
• 1:11:56
  Speaker 11: test that? And, you know, going four or five in
• 1:11:58
  Speaker 11: Iowa and New Hampshire, I think we got close to
• 1:12:01
  Speaker 11: seeing how bad it could go. But, you know, you
• 1:12:03
  Speaker 11: rebounded a little bit in Nevada. And, you know, he
• 1:12:05
  Speaker 11: just didn't win South Carolina. He won it in a
• 1:12:08
  Speaker 11: dominating fashion, which is important both from a delegates and momentum.
• 1:12:11
  Speaker 11: So I think the question will be, I'd be surprised
• 1:12:14
  Speaker 11: in certainly the primaries through March that he's not winning
• 1:12:17
  Speaker 11: the African-American vote. The question will be, does he do
• 1:12:19
  Speaker 11: it by the same margin he did in South Carolina?
• 1:12:22
  Speaker 11: And can he do that outside of the South? But
• 1:12:26
  Speaker 11: so I think with Klobuchar dropping out, with Mayor Pete
• 1:12:30
  Speaker 11: dropping out, not all that vote's going to go to Biden.
• 1:12:33
  Speaker 11: but things begin to clear up a little bit. And
• 1:12:36
  Speaker 11: so I think if he can survive Super Tuesday, and
• 1:12:38
  Speaker 11: that's an open question because it's a great day for
• 1:12:40
  Speaker 11: Bernie from a delegate standpoint, I think he probably likes
• 1:12:43
  Speaker 11: the rest of the calendar.
• 1:12:45
  Speaker 2: So let's talk about Super Tuesday. What are you going
• 1:12:48
  Speaker 2: to be watching for as results start coming in?
• 1:12:52
  Speaker 11: Well, sadly, the most important in California, we may not
• 1:12:54
  Speaker 11: know much on Super Tuesday or the day after Wednesday.
• 1:12:58
  Speaker 11: So to me, that's the important question really is, What
• 1:13:01
  Speaker 11: kind of delegate yield does Bernie Sanders get out of California?
• 1:13:05
  Speaker 11: It's almost impossible for me to see him not getting
• 1:13:08
  Speaker 11: a significant one. And so there's that. How many does
• 1:13:12
  Speaker 11: he net? And, you know, the important thing there is,
• 1:13:14
  Speaker 11: is Joe Biden and maybe Michael Bloomberg, maybe Elizabeth Warren,
• 1:13:17
  Speaker 11: are others viable above the 15% threshold statewide? I'll also
• 1:13:22
  Speaker 11: be looking at the southern states, you know, Alabama, Tennessee, Virginia,
• 1:13:27
  Speaker 11: North Carolina. What kind of net from a delegate standpoint,
• 1:13:31
  Speaker 11: is Biden able to put on the table? And then,
• 1:13:34
  Speaker 11: you know, Bernie's going to be viable in states like
• 1:13:36
  Speaker 11: Minnesota and Michigan. I'm sorry, Minnesota and Massachusetts. And I
• 1:13:42
  Speaker 11: think there's a question whether Biden can get viable. So
• 1:13:44
  Speaker 11: I'm just going to be looking at that. And so
• 1:13:46
  Speaker 11: I think if Bernie Sanders ends the night, and again,
• 1:13:48
  Speaker 11: we won't know this for many, many days, but if
• 1:13:51
  Speaker 11: the result of Super Tuesday is he's netting hundreds of
• 1:13:54
  Speaker 11: delegates because he dominated in California, No matter how well
• 1:13:58
  Speaker 11: Biden does the rest of the way, I think that's
• 1:14:00
  Speaker 11: going to be hard to catch. If Biden can keep
• 1:14:02
  Speaker 11: that number down, you've got to remember what's coming up
• 1:14:04
  Speaker 11: in March. States like Georgia, states like Florida, I think
• 1:14:08
  Speaker 11: states like Ohio, where I think Biden's going to do well.
• 1:14:11
  Speaker 11: And in some of those states like Florida, he could
• 1:14:13
  Speaker 11: net a tremendously large number of delegates.
• 1:14:17
  Speaker 2: So after the results came in in South Carolina, Mayor
• 1:14:20
  Speaker 2: Pete ended his campaign. Tom Steyer ended his campaign. We
• 1:14:24
  Speaker 2: got word just before we recorded this interview that Senator
• 1:14:27
  Speaker 2: Amy Klobuchar is going to drop out and endorse Vice
• 1:14:31
  Speaker 2: President Joe Biden. How do you think that changes the race?
• 1:14:36
  Speaker 2: And do you think this happening, you know, in the
• 1:14:39
  Speaker 2: three days between South Carolina and Super Tuesday will have
• 1:14:43
  Speaker 2: an impact on the results tomorrow?
• 1:14:46
  Speaker 11: I think it will have a modest impact. That's important because,
• 1:14:49
  Speaker 11: you know, the difference between Joe Biden being viable in
• 1:14:52
  Speaker 11: California and not is probably the difference between him having
• 1:14:54
  Speaker 11: a chance to be the nominee or not. So now
• 1:14:57
  Speaker 11: a bunch of people in California have already voted early
• 1:15:00
  Speaker 11: for Amy and for Pete and for Steyer. But for
• 1:15:03
  Speaker 11: Election Day voting, you know, I think Biden will benefit
• 1:15:07
  Speaker 11: more from those candidates dropping out than Sanders. Not, you know,
• 1:15:10
  Speaker 11: not 100 percent. And the question will be, what is Bloomberg?
• 1:15:13
  Speaker 11: Bloomberg's going to get some votes and get some delegates
• 1:15:16
  Speaker 11: on Super Tuesday. Presuming Biden does a lot more strongly
• 1:15:20
  Speaker 11: than he does, I'd be surprised if Bloomberg lasts through
• 1:15:22
  Speaker 11: the week. And so then you've got Warren still in
• 1:15:26
  Speaker 11: there and she says she's got a convention strategy as
• 1:15:29
  Speaker 11: as as I think far fetched as it is. It
• 1:15:32
  Speaker 11: sounds like they're going to continue to try and just
• 1:15:35
  Speaker 11: build delegates. So, you know, then Biden's got a race
• 1:15:37
  Speaker 11: I think he likes. But again, you know this, John,
• 1:15:39
  Speaker 11: he's also got to perform well.
• 1:15:41
  Speaker 1: He's got to.
• 1:15:42
  Speaker 11: Fully maximize his South Carolina one, which means every interview,
• 1:15:45
  Speaker 11: every speech, every debate, the fundraising, the organizing like they
• 1:15:49
  Speaker 11: up until Saturday night. have not run the strongest of campaigns.
• 1:15:52
  Speaker 11: I think Bernie Sanders has run and will continue to
• 1:15:55
  Speaker 11: run a strong campaign. So this isn't just like on paper.
• 1:15:57
  Speaker 11: It's like, can he fully execute? But things are falling
• 1:16:01
  Speaker 11: about as positively as you could have hoped if you're
• 1:16:04
  Speaker 11: Joe Biden. You know, you would have liked, I think,
• 1:16:07
  Speaker 11: to finish in the top three in Iowa, but, you know,
• 1:16:11
  Speaker 11: and do a little bit better in Nevada. But he's
• 1:16:13
  Speaker 11: now got the opportunity, I think, to have that one-on-one
• 1:16:16
  Speaker 11: or at least one-on-two um, that probably numerically works to
• 1:16:20
  Speaker 11: his benefit. But again, if he, uh, falls too far
• 1:16:24
  Speaker 11: behind because of California on super Tuesday, it may be
• 1:16:27
  Speaker 11: too little too late.
• 1:16:28
  Speaker 2: Let's talk about Joe Biden's performance for a second. You know,
• 1:16:31
  Speaker 2: I feel like there was a lot of people who
• 1:16:33
  Speaker 2: saw his speech in South Carolina and thought, wow, that's the,
• 1:16:36
  Speaker 2: the strongest argument he's made for his candidacy. It's the
• 1:16:39
  Speaker 2: best speech he's given as a candidate. Uh, Why do
• 1:16:43
  Speaker 2: you think it has taken so long for that version
• 1:16:46
  Speaker 2: of Joe Biden to emerge? And do you expect that
• 1:16:49
  Speaker 2: it will continue? Or do you think do you think
• 1:16:52
  Speaker 2: that there's just some limitations he has as a candidate
• 1:16:54
  Speaker 2: that prevents him from executing on the message he delivered
• 1:16:57
  Speaker 2: after his victory?
• 1:16:59
  Speaker 11: Well, you've written a hell of a lot more speeches
• 1:17:01
  Speaker 11: than I am. And as you know, there are some
• 1:17:02
  Speaker 11: great long speeches, but for the most part, brevity helps.
• 1:17:05
  Speaker 4: Right.
• 1:17:05
  Speaker 11: So it was strong and short. I was worried there
• 1:17:09
  Speaker 11: at the end when he started talking about some of
• 1:17:10
  Speaker 11: the South Carolina elected officials we were going off the
• 1:17:13
  Speaker 11: rails a little bit, but he kept it tight. So
• 1:17:15
  Speaker 11: here's what I'd say, and I was part of these
• 1:17:18
  Speaker 11: debate preps with Biden in both 2008 and 2012. So
• 1:17:21
  Speaker 11: he had strong debates with Sarah Palin and Paul Ryan.
• 1:17:24
  Speaker 11: The last one, as you remember, super high pressure because
• 1:17:27
  Speaker 11: we bombed against Romney in the first debate. So now,
• 1:17:31
  Speaker 11: is it just because it's eight years? Is it because
• 1:17:33
  Speaker 11: he's better in one-on-one? I don't know. But if Saturday
• 1:17:37
  Speaker 11: night was the exception to the rule, I think he's
• 1:17:40
  Speaker 11: going to have a very, very hard time becoming the nominee.
• 1:17:43
  Speaker 11: But if somehow this is a new Biden, and listen,
• 1:17:45
  Speaker 11: my suspicion, John, is one of the reasons Saturday was
• 1:17:47
  Speaker 11: so strong is he knew how much he had riding
• 1:17:49
  Speaker 11: on it and his team did. Like they can't make
• 1:17:52
  Speaker 11: any more mistakes because Bernie Sanders is nothing to laugh
• 1:17:57
  Speaker 11: about if you're Joe Biden. He's a strong performer, strong candidate,
• 1:18:01
  Speaker 11: got all the money in the world and all the
• 1:18:02
  Speaker 11: volunteers in the world you'd want in a presidential campaign.
• 1:18:05
  Speaker 11: So that's really the test. You know, and I was
• 1:18:08
  Speaker 11: worried actually if you're, for Biden, I was worried like,
• 1:18:11
  Speaker 11: Would he Sunday morning in those morning shows, you know,
• 1:18:14
  Speaker 11: be terrible because he was tired and coming off the
• 1:18:17
  Speaker 11: high of Saturday?
• 1:18:17
  Speaker 2: You know, he was fine.
• 1:18:18
  Speaker 11: He survived them. So that'll be the question going forward. And,
• 1:18:21
  Speaker 11: you know, you've got to look down the road in
• 1:18:22
  Speaker 11: a couple of weeks. We're going to have a debate
• 1:18:25
  Speaker 11: and it may be down to three people. Could be
• 1:18:27
  Speaker 11: down to two people. And, you know, the assumption I've
• 1:18:30
  Speaker 11: heard from folks is, well, that'll be better for Biden
• 1:18:32
  Speaker 11: because he struggles with a big crowd. But it also
• 1:18:35
  Speaker 11: means Biden's going to be talking a lot more and
• 1:18:38
  Speaker 11: he's going to have to be more agile than he's been.
• 1:18:41
  Speaker 11: And so I think the preparation for that debate is
• 1:18:44
  Speaker 11: going to be almost like a Manhattan Project for the
• 1:18:46
  Speaker 11: Biden team.
• 1:18:48
  Speaker 2: Let's talk about Bloomberg for a second. You know, his
• 1:18:52
  Speaker 2: whole strategy was based around Super Tuesday. They had sent
• 1:18:56
  Speaker 2: so many signals that the only reason he got in
• 1:18:58
  Speaker 2: the race was in part because of the weakness of
• 1:19:01
  Speaker 2: Joe Biden. What is Mike Bloomberg doing in the race
• 1:19:05
  Speaker 2: at this point? Is it simply just a matter of
• 1:19:08
  Speaker 2: getting your money's worth by staying in for Tuesday? Is
• 1:19:11
  Speaker 2: there any path for Bloomberg to the nomination?
• 1:19:14
  Speaker 11: Well, John, I thought from the very beginning, I've spoke
• 1:19:16
  Speaker 11: about this publicly, that for Bloomberg to actually be relevant,
• 1:19:20
  Speaker 11: he needed to have a bunch of things happen in
• 1:19:22
  Speaker 11: the first four states that he didn't control, right? One
• 1:19:24
  Speaker 11: of them being Biden completely falling apart, meaning losing South
• 1:19:29
  Speaker 11: Carolina and Mayor Pete not showing the ability to grow
• 1:19:33
  Speaker 11: outside of his early coalition. So, you know, maybe he
• 1:19:36
  Speaker 11: got one of those things. but he didn't get the second.
• 1:19:39
  Speaker 11: So I think he's left now. He's performed poorly in
• 1:19:42
  Speaker 11: the two debates. The man on the stage has not
• 1:19:46
  Speaker 11: matched the man people are seeing on their TV screens.
• 1:19:49
  Speaker 11: I think his ability to grow into the African-American community,
• 1:19:52
  Speaker 11: the Latino community is severely limited. And so I'm sure
• 1:19:57
  Speaker 11: having spent over $ 650 million, I mean, he has actually
• 1:20:00
  Speaker 11: spent more on advertising than than we spend in either
• 1:20:03
  Speaker 11: of our two presidential campaigns. It's a remarkable statistic. And
• 1:20:07
  Speaker 11: so I'm sure he doesn't want to get out before
• 1:20:09
  Speaker 11: some votes get cast. And listen, he's going to get
• 1:20:11
  Speaker 11: some votes and some delegates. But I assume he's like
• 1:20:14
  Speaker 11: Mayor Pete did, like Amy Klobuchar did, like, can I
• 1:20:17
  Speaker 11: be the nominee? And unless something really funky happens tomorrow night,
• 1:20:21
  Speaker 11: Biden woefully underperforms and Bloomberg overperforms, I think it's going
• 1:20:25
  Speaker 11: to be pretty clear there is no pathway there. And
• 1:20:29
  Speaker 11: my assessment is, you know, Bloomberg is someone who is
• 1:20:32
  Speaker 11: a data-driven person. And if there really is no path
• 1:20:35
  Speaker 11: there post-Super Tuesday, you know, I'd expect them to make
• 1:20:38
  Speaker 11: the hard decision to get out.
• 1:20:40
  Speaker 2: He can take solace that with Tom Steyer, they produced
• 1:20:43
  Speaker 2: a pretty extraordinary stimulus package for local news stations across
• 1:20:47
  Speaker 2: the country.
• 1:20:49
  Speaker 11: Political consultants, you know, organizers. I'm happy about that for
• 1:20:52
  Speaker 11: the organizers.
• 1:20:53
  Speaker 2: But yeah, yeah.
• 1:20:53
  Speaker 11: That's the other thing, by the way, Steyer, You know,
• 1:20:55
  Speaker 11: if Steyer hadn't been in the race in South Carolina now,
• 1:20:58
  Speaker 11: not everything he got would have gone to Biden. But
• 1:21:01
  Speaker 11: Biden's win probably would have been, you know, five to
• 1:21:03
  Speaker 11: six points stronger if Steyer hadn't been in the race.
• 1:21:06
  Speaker 2: So let's talk about Warren. I want to touch on
• 1:21:09
  Speaker 2: her campaign before we move on. One of the arguments
• 1:21:13
  Speaker 2: they made out of Nevada was they saw weakness in
• 1:21:15
  Speaker 2: Joe Biden and they seem to be suggesting that they
• 1:21:18
  Speaker 2: would be one of three and that the race would
• 1:21:21
  Speaker 2: be fluid as a result. It seems as though Biden's
• 1:21:24
  Speaker 2: good performance in South Carolina makes that argument tougher. What
• 1:21:28
  Speaker 2: do you see as Elizabeth Warren's path to the nomination,
• 1:21:32
  Speaker 2: or what do you think her role is in the
• 1:21:35
  Speaker 2: primaries moving forward?
• 1:21:36
  Speaker 11: Well, her campaign set out a really interesting memo yesterday
• 1:21:39
  Speaker 11: that was very candid and straightforward. So they're not suggesting
• 1:21:43
  Speaker 11: that they can win the nomination because all of a
• 1:21:45
  Speaker 11: sudden they're going to start winning a lot of states
• 1:21:47
  Speaker 11: and get more delegates than the other candidates, simply saying
• 1:21:50
  Speaker 11: that I think this leads to a convention strategy for them. Um,
• 1:21:54
  Speaker 11: and you know, it's gotta be frustrating if you're her,
• 1:21:56
  Speaker 11: her campaign supporters, like she's debated exceedingly well, she's a
• 1:21:59
  Speaker 11: strong performer. She's had a really good fundraising month, but
• 1:22:02
  Speaker 11: she hasn't been able to break out of kind of
• 1:22:04
  Speaker 11: the mid teens. And so the notion that if she
• 1:22:07
  Speaker 11: stays in this race and if she does, she will
• 1:22:09
  Speaker 11: win some delegates along the way that we're going to
• 1:22:12
  Speaker 11: go to Milwaukee and neither Biden or Sanders have a
• 1:22:15
  Speaker 11: majority of delegates and we're going to be deadlocked five,
• 1:22:18
  Speaker 11: six ballots. And the convention is going to say, you
• 1:22:20
  Speaker 11: know what?
• 1:22:21
  Speaker 3: We're just stuck.
• 1:22:22
  Speaker 11: So we're going to go down and give it to
• 1:22:24
  Speaker 11: the person who's got the third or fourth amount of delegates.
• 1:22:28
  Speaker 11: Even in the craziest Aaron Sorkin screenplay, that wouldn't happen.
• 1:22:33
  Speaker 11: So I'm not sure what the play is post-Tuesday because
• 1:22:38
  Speaker 11: I don't think it's credible for her campaign to suggest
• 1:22:41
  Speaker 11: that somehow they're going to roll into Milwaukee with a
• 1:22:45
  Speaker 11: pretty small number of delegates compared to the front runners
• 1:22:48
  Speaker 11: and become the consensus choice. I just don't see that happening.
• 1:22:50
  Speaker 11: So I don't know whether that's true and they're just
• 1:22:53
  Speaker 11: going to stay in no matter what, or they're going
• 1:22:55
  Speaker 11: to take stock after Tuesday, but that'll be fascinating to
• 1:22:58
  Speaker 11: watch because it will affect. There's so much attention, understandably,
• 1:23:02
  Speaker 11: on Super Tuesday, but think about the states we have
• 1:23:04
  Speaker 11: coming up, John, in the rest of March. We have Florida,
• 1:23:07
  Speaker 11: we have Illinois, we've got Ohio, we've got Arizona, we've
• 1:23:10
  Speaker 11: got Missouri, we've got Michigan, big, big states with lots
• 1:23:13
  Speaker 11: of delegates. And so her decision, I don't know yet
• 1:23:16
  Speaker 11: how that, there's, I think, a conventional wisdom that If
• 1:23:19
  Speaker 11: she were to get out, that would help Bernie. And
• 1:23:21
  Speaker 11: maybe it does. But like all these candidates, it's not
• 1:23:23
  Speaker 11: like 100 percent of their vote goes to one candidate.
• 1:23:27
  Speaker 4: Right.
• 1:23:27
  Speaker 2: I mean, you know, even even with Mayor Pete dropping
• 1:23:30
  Speaker 2: out there, you know, the the obvious thought is it
• 1:23:34
  Speaker 2: goes to Biden, their fellow center left candidates. But at
• 1:23:37
  Speaker 2: the same time, you look at the second choice polling
• 1:23:40
  Speaker 2: and it's a bit more complicated than that. You know,
• 1:23:41
  Speaker 2: people are more ideologically complicated. And at the same time,
• 1:23:44
  Speaker 2: if the goal is simply to keep Bernie's, forget the
• 1:23:46
  Speaker 2: delegate lead, but just the delegate count down, fewer candidates
• 1:23:51
  Speaker 2: doesn't necessarily redound to Biden's benefit, right?
• 1:23:55
  Speaker 11: Well, it just depends on the math, right? So I
• 1:23:58
  Speaker 11: think that, you know, we're talking about in this conversation
• 1:24:02
  Speaker 11: how important California is, right? Bernie Sanders is likely not
• 1:24:06
  Speaker 11: going to get over 40 percent in California. He might
• 1:24:09
  Speaker 11: not even pass 35 percent. yet he's a delegate threat
• 1:24:12
  Speaker 11: because we're talking about other candidates either not being able
• 1:24:15
  Speaker 11: to get viable or too many of them. So my
• 1:24:17
  Speaker 11: sense is when you talk about a Georgia, you talk
• 1:24:20
  Speaker 11: about a Florida, you talk about Ohio, if this truly
• 1:24:23
  Speaker 11: does get down to a two-person race between Biden and
• 1:24:25
  Speaker 11: Sanders in actuality, then, you know, I think there's probably
• 1:24:30
  Speaker 11: in more states more opportunity for Biden to get into
• 1:24:33
  Speaker 11: the high 40s or low 50s than Sanders. That's my sense. So, um,
• 1:24:38
  Speaker 11: You know, there may be some states like Washington state,
• 1:24:40
  Speaker 11: I'd imagine will be a very good state for Bernie.
• 1:24:42
  Speaker 11: So maybe in a two way race, he could rack
• 1:24:44
  Speaker 11: up a pretty big margin. But I think generally it's
• 1:24:48
  Speaker 11: helpful to Biden to have this race clear out as
• 1:24:51
  Speaker 11: quickly as possible.
• 1:24:52
  Speaker 2: So we've talked a lot about Democrats fighting each other.
• 1:24:54
  Speaker 2: I want to talk about the sort of big fight
• 1:24:56
  Speaker 2: to come in Citizens Guide. You know, the book you
• 1:24:59
  Speaker 2: have coming out on Super Tuesday, you wrote the nominee
• 1:25:01
  Speaker 2: must win the economic argument with Donald Trump among voters
• 1:25:03
  Speaker 2: who will decide this election at this point. What do
• 1:25:06
  Speaker 2: you feel is the best economic argument that Democrats can
• 1:25:09
  Speaker 2: make against Trump? And which of the candidates do you
• 1:25:12
  Speaker 2: see are doing the best job of making that argument?
• 1:25:16
  Speaker 11: Well, I think, you know, of course, we don't know
• 1:25:18
  Speaker 11: where the economy is going to go with the coronavirus
• 1:25:20
  Speaker 11: and its effect. I mean, we could be in a recession.
• 1:25:23
  Speaker 11: And I think that's in some ways a different argument.
• 1:25:27
  Speaker 11: But it's connected to this, which is he sold America
• 1:25:30
  Speaker 11: a bill of goods. He said he was going to
• 1:25:32
  Speaker 11: come in and fight for working people. And everything he's done,
• 1:25:34
  Speaker 11: his trade policies, is tax cuts, making it harder to
• 1:25:37
  Speaker 11: get health care, not believing in education investment has been
• 1:25:41
  Speaker 11: to benefit the wealthy. And we know that the average worker,
• 1:25:45
  Speaker 11: while most people are employed, are not making the kind
• 1:25:49
  Speaker 11: of wages they want. And so I think that that
• 1:25:52
  Speaker 11: is the case that has to be made every day
• 1:25:55
  Speaker 11: in every way. And then, of course, though, we need
• 1:25:57
  Speaker 11: an alternative that people buy into. And that's going to
• 1:26:01
  Speaker 11: be fascinating if this does get down in reality to
• 1:26:03
  Speaker 11: a Biden-Bernie bait, you know, their prescriptions are quite different.
• 1:26:10
  Speaker 11: And so, although they share more in common, you know,
• 1:26:13
  Speaker 11: they both want to invest more in healthcare, in education.
• 1:26:15
  Speaker 11: They both roll back the tax cuts for the wealthy. But,
• 1:26:19
  Speaker 11: you know, Bernie's really talking about an upheaval, which is
• 1:26:23
  Speaker 11: attractive to a lot of people, particularly young people. I
• 1:26:25
  Speaker 11: think Biden's talking about big and important changes, but less revolutionary.
• 1:26:29
  Speaker 11: So we have to, so the way I think about it, John,
• 1:26:31
  Speaker 11: is in Manitowoc, Wisconsin, or Tucson, Arizona, or Asheville, North Carolina.
• 1:26:38
  Speaker 11: We need a voter who's on the fence to say,
• 1:26:40
  Speaker 11: you know, at the end of the day, the Democratic
• 1:26:42
  Speaker 11: nominee is going to fight for people like me. I
• 1:26:44
  Speaker 11: thought Trump might, but he's not going to. Then we
• 1:26:46
  Speaker 11: also have to make an economic argument to people who
• 1:26:48
  Speaker 11: aren't registered or may not turn out, that it matters
• 1:26:51
  Speaker 11: to them who the president is.
• 1:26:52
  Speaker 3: So this isn't.
• 1:26:53
  Speaker 11: Solely about persuasion, but that's advertising, it's debates, but part
• 1:26:57
  Speaker 11: of the message in my book is it's on all
• 1:26:59
  Speaker 11: of us. If we see our nominee, whether it's an
• 1:27:03
  Speaker 11: interview we see on YouTube, or it's a commercial they
• 1:27:06
  Speaker 11: put out, or some other piece of content, a great
• 1:27:08
  Speaker 11: infographic about how they're going to fight for the middle class.
• 1:27:11
  Speaker 5: We have to share it.
• 1:27:12
  Speaker 11: I think we've all gotten into the routine of, you know,
• 1:27:15
  Speaker 11: using social media to amplify the outrage to Trump. And
• 1:27:18
  Speaker 11: I think we have to do a better job of
• 1:27:20
  Speaker 11: making the positive case for whoever comes out of this primary.
• 1:27:23
  Speaker 2: So, I mean, it sounds like you're talking, you know,
• 1:27:24
  Speaker 2: we've had this conversation a million times that we see
• 1:27:27
  Speaker 2: in 2018, these sort of suburban... more moderate voters helping
• 1:27:33
  Speaker 2: to deliver a Democratic majority in the House. At the
• 1:27:36
  Speaker 2: same time, we see, you know, Bernie Sanders, you know,
• 1:27:41
  Speaker 2: bringing in millions of people into the process, you know,
• 1:27:44
  Speaker 2: new donors, potential new voters. It seems like what you're
• 1:27:48
  Speaker 2: saying is obviously in November, we're going to need both
• 1:27:51
  Speaker 2: of these pools of people to come out. Do you
• 1:27:54
  Speaker 2: believe both Biden and Sanders have the capacity to kind
• 1:27:57
  Speaker 2: of deliver both of those groups?
• 1:28:01
  Speaker 11: Well, first of all, I'd say Sanders has shown the
• 1:28:03
  Speaker 11: ability to activate new donors and volunteers, which is important.
• 1:28:07
  Speaker 11: We don't have evidence yet about bringing new voters in.
• 1:28:09
  Speaker 11: You know, I went through this in 2008. You're on
• 1:28:11
  Speaker 11: the other side of that, right? Can Barack Obama, is
• 1:28:14
  Speaker 11: he electable? Can he win? And one of our pieces
• 1:28:17
  Speaker 11: of evidence was, look what's happening in the primaries. There's
• 1:28:20
  Speaker 11: new people coming in and a lot of young people.
• 1:28:21
  Speaker 11: So we'll see. But yeah, I think both of, you know,
• 1:28:24
  Speaker 11: Biden probably right now, you'd say might be a stronger
• 1:28:27
  Speaker 11: candidate to some of the Obama Trump voters and in
• 1:28:29
  Speaker 11: blue collar and exurban areas. certainly in some of the
• 1:28:31
  Speaker 11: suburban areas. Sanders is going to drive more interest and
• 1:28:35
  Speaker 11: turnout potential among young people. So we don't have somebody
• 1:28:38
  Speaker 11: who has the whole package, but that's where we all
• 1:28:39
  Speaker 11: come in. And I, you know, I think I spent
• 1:28:41
  Speaker 11: some time in the book talking about the unification that's
• 1:28:44
  Speaker 11: so important. A lot of people are just going to say,
• 1:28:46
  Speaker 11: you know, it was a hard fought primary and I'm
• 1:28:49
  Speaker 11: going to support anyone who comes out of it. But
• 1:28:51
  Speaker 11: a lot of people are going to be raw about
• 1:28:52
  Speaker 11: this and we have to be thoughtful about this. And
• 1:28:54
  Speaker 11: the winner's going to have to spend time putting this
• 1:28:56
  Speaker 11: back together and listening to people. But it's on all
• 1:28:59
  Speaker 11: of us to create that because, you know, in the book,
• 1:29:02
  Speaker 11: as you know, I spend time and I really wanted
• 1:29:04
  Speaker 11: to make sure people who weren't involved in politics that
• 1:29:07
  Speaker 11: much or at all understood this. So there is some
• 1:29:10
  Speaker 11: remedial explanations of how do you win a presidential campaign
• 1:29:14
  Speaker 11: and going through the different types of voters. There's registration targets.
• 1:29:18
  Speaker 11: There's turnout targets. There's true swing voters. And there's people
• 1:29:21
  Speaker 11: who are going to flirt with third party. And we
• 1:29:24
  Speaker 11: have to have a campaign that can speak to all
• 1:29:26
  Speaker 11: of them. And then we as volunteers need to do
• 1:29:28
  Speaker 11: our job because the math is such Trump is going
• 1:29:31
  Speaker 11: to drive, I think, big registration and big turnout amongst
• 1:29:35
  Speaker 11: his MAGA base. So the votes required to win, you
• 1:29:39
  Speaker 11: can't say if we just drive turnout, it's enough.
• 1:29:41
  Speaker 4: It won't be.
• 1:29:42
  Speaker 11: We have to do enough amongst all those key cohorts
• 1:29:46
  Speaker 11: to get to a win number because the Trump campaign,
• 1:29:48
  Speaker 11: if they're doing nothing else, they will try and identify
• 1:29:52
  Speaker 11: and find and register and turn out every single person
• 1:29:54
  Speaker 11: in these battleground states. And, you know, look what George
• 1:29:58
  Speaker 11: Bush did in 2004 in Ohio. John Kerry produced 500
• 1:30:03
  Speaker 11: to 600,000 more votes than Al Gore did in 2000.
• 1:30:06
  Speaker 11: Everybody assumed if he got that many votes, he'd win
• 1:30:08
  Speaker 11: and comfortably. But George Bush turned out every conservative imaginable
• 1:30:12
  Speaker 11: in Ohio. Trump's going to do the same thing. And
• 1:30:15
  Speaker 11: I think if we don't think he is, we're going
• 1:30:17
  Speaker 11: to be super unhappy on the night of November 3rd
• 1:30:19
  Speaker 11: because we're going to lose. So that means we need
• 1:30:21
  Speaker 11: to reach all those folks.
• 1:30:22
  Speaker 2: But you're right.
• 1:30:23
  Speaker 11: We don't have a candidate who's naturally strong at all
• 1:30:26
  Speaker 11: those things. So we kind of got to make, we're
• 1:30:28
  Speaker 11: the Calvary. We got to make up the difference.
• 1:30:30
  Speaker 2: So for people listening, I think there's a lot of
• 1:30:32
  Speaker 2: people listening to this that they may have a dog
• 1:30:34
  Speaker 2: in the fight, but they're where you are. They just
• 1:30:36
  Speaker 2: want to win and they want to do their part
• 1:30:38
  Speaker 2: to make sure we're united and we get as many
• 1:30:40
  Speaker 2: people out as possible. What are some of the things
• 1:30:42
  Speaker 2: they'll learn in the book that they could do right
• 1:30:45
  Speaker 2: now as we head into Super Tuesday and beyond to
• 1:30:48
  Speaker 2: make sure they're doing their part to sort of keep
• 1:30:51
  Speaker 2: the Democratic coalition together just as citizens?
• 1:30:54
  Speaker 11: Well, first of all, it's make a plan. So, you know,
• 1:30:57
  Speaker 11: if you live in a battleground state, are you going
• 1:30:59
  Speaker 11: to become a precinct leader? If you don't live in
• 1:31:01
  Speaker 11: a battleground state, maybe you'll make a plan to travel
• 1:31:04
  Speaker 11: there in the fall if you can. What kind of
• 1:31:05
  Speaker 11: financial contributions can you make? Do you feel like you're
• 1:31:09
  Speaker 11: using your social media networks properly? Do you need to
• 1:31:13
  Speaker 11: sign up for them? Make sure that you and everyone
• 1:31:16
  Speaker 11: in your circle, friends and family, even if they're annoyed
• 1:31:18
  Speaker 11: when you ask, Are you registered? Are you registered at
• 1:31:21
  Speaker 11: the proper address? Create content. If you have a neighbor
• 1:31:26
  Speaker 11: who voted for Trump last time and is now going
• 1:31:28
  Speaker 11: to vote Democratic, whip out your phone and take a
• 1:31:29
  Speaker 11: video of that and post it. That kind of content
• 1:31:32
  Speaker 11: actually is more impactful than I think a lot of
• 1:31:35
  Speaker 11: content that's produced professionally because it seems real because it is.
• 1:31:39
  Speaker 11: So there's so much to do. So make your own plan.
• 1:31:42
  Speaker 11: How are you going to use social media? Make sure
• 1:31:44
  Speaker 11: your entire network that you have influence of, and we
• 1:31:47
  Speaker 11: all have dozens and dozens of people that we can,
• 1:31:50
  Speaker 11: without being asked by the campaign to do that. Do
• 1:31:52
  Speaker 11: you want to get more involved? Again, if you're in
• 1:31:54
  Speaker 11: a battleground state, we need you to. If you're not
• 1:31:56
  Speaker 11: in a battleground state, you're going to travel there. You're
• 1:31:59
  Speaker 11: going to make phone calls remotely. You're going to write postcards.
• 1:32:02
  Speaker 11: So it's basically taking stock of everything. And I think
• 1:32:06
  Speaker 11: hopefully an important part of the book was I tried
• 1:32:08
  Speaker 11: to address people's understandable sense that what is it like really?
• 1:32:13
  Speaker 11: Like I go to a battleground state and I register
• 1:32:16
  Speaker 11: two people. What does that matter? Well, If you think
• 1:32:19
  Speaker 11: about it in aggregate, it makes all the difference in
• 1:32:21
  Speaker 11: the world. So if you register two people and 5,000
• 1:32:24
  Speaker 11: other people did it that weekend in a state like Michigan,
• 1:32:28
  Speaker 11: that's 10,000 people. And you do that course of the fall,
• 1:32:30
  Speaker 11: that's way more than the win number. So you have
• 1:32:33
  Speaker 11: to think about it in aggregate. If you post something
• 1:32:37
  Speaker 11: on Facebook or Instagram that's a response to a lie
• 1:32:40
  Speaker 11: you see, maybe you will convince nobody in your own network.
• 1:32:43
  Speaker 11: Everybody's settled, pro against. But other people will see what
• 1:32:47
  Speaker 11: you did and that'll give them the idea and the
• 1:32:49
  Speaker 11: confidence to do it as well. So the other thing
• 1:32:51
  Speaker 11: is capture your volunteer activity, you know, do an Instagram story,
• 1:32:55
  Speaker 11: you know, post about it so that, you know, it's not,
• 1:32:58
  Speaker 11: you know, people, oh, you went out to Wisconsin or
• 1:33:01
  Speaker 11: you were making phone calls today and maybe five other
• 1:33:04
  Speaker 11: people see that and decide to do it as well.
• 1:33:05
  Speaker 11: So it's really like we've got to take ownership of
• 1:33:08
  Speaker 11: this because they've got Fox, they've got Sinclair, they've got
• 1:33:12
  Speaker 11: the Russians, they've got Trump's advantages of incumbency, they've got
• 1:33:15
  Speaker 11: it all. What we have is us, and we basically
• 1:33:19
  Speaker 11: have to aggregate up our own citizen army here to
• 1:33:22
  Speaker 11: fight back.
• 1:33:23
  Speaker 2: One last question. So the other book you have coming
• 1:33:25
  Speaker 2: out is called Ripples of Hope, and it's written for
• 1:33:27
  Speaker 2: a younger audience. What are you hoping younger readers get
• 1:33:29
  Speaker 2: out of it?
• 1:33:31
  Speaker 11: Well, yeah, the premise of that book was, you know,
• 1:33:33
  Speaker 11: you may not have a vote, but you have a
• 1:33:35
  Speaker 11: voice and a really important one. So I certainly, nothing
• 1:33:39
  Speaker 11: gets me more excited to see young people passionate about something.
• 1:33:43
  Speaker 11: So if you're 15 or you're 13, You know, let's
• 1:33:46
  Speaker 11: say you see your parents saying, I really want to
• 1:33:48
  Speaker 11: defeat Trump. You know, you ask them, what are we
• 1:33:51
  Speaker 11: doing about it? Like, are you posting on Facebook and Instagram?
• 1:33:53
  Speaker 11: Are we going to Arizona to volunteer? Have we contributed yet?
• 1:33:58
  Speaker 11: You can give your parents idea, create your own content.
• 1:34:00
  Speaker 11: This election's about their future, but you know, much more
• 1:34:03
  Speaker 11: than mine. So create content about why you want a
• 1:34:07
  Speaker 11: president who believes in climate change or why you want
• 1:34:09
  Speaker 11: a president who's going to make it easier to go
• 1:34:12
  Speaker 11: to community college or college. Um, And also, you know,
• 1:34:15
  Speaker 11: I spent some time explaining things like the electoral college
• 1:34:18
  Speaker 11: and battleground states so that kids who are following this
• 1:34:20
  Speaker 11: election may have a better understanding of what a presidential
• 1:34:23
  Speaker 11: campaign is and what goes into it. But listen, I
• 1:34:26
  Speaker 11: think if we can get millions of kids out there
• 1:34:28
  Speaker 11: really pushing, using their own talents, but also, you know,
• 1:34:33
  Speaker 11: putting pressure on their older relatives and friends to do
• 1:34:36
  Speaker 11: everything they can, think about how powerful that will be. And,
• 1:34:39
  Speaker 11: you know, that excitement, I saw that with, you know,
• 1:34:41
  Speaker 11: in the Obama campaigns, the fact that young people and
• 1:34:43
  Speaker 11: not just people who could vote were excited mattered. It
• 1:34:46
  Speaker 11: really created interest and excitement amongst older relatives and friends
• 1:34:51
  Speaker 11: who then would go the extra mile. So that's the idea.
• 1:34:53
  Speaker 11: And it's in the same spirit, which is this is
• 1:34:55
  Speaker 11: the most important election, if not in American history, certainly
• 1:34:58
  Speaker 11: in our lifetimes.
• 1:34:59
  Speaker 3: It's going to be close.
• 1:35:01
  Speaker 11: And we're running against someone who we've never had anybody
• 1:35:03
  Speaker 11: this obsessed with their reelection than Donald Trump. And he's
• 1:35:06
  Speaker 11: got all the powers of the presidency and maybe powers
• 1:35:10
  Speaker 11: of foreign capitals at his disposal. And we have to
• 1:35:14
  Speaker 11: meet that moment with massive citizen engagement. Small, you know, activities,
• 1:35:21
  Speaker 11: large activities, you know, even somebody who says, you know what,
• 1:35:23
  Speaker 11: I can I'm only going to spend four hours a week.
• 1:35:26
  Speaker 2: Awesome.
• 1:35:27
  Speaker 11: Or four hours a month.
• 1:35:28
  Speaker 4: Awesome.
• 1:35:28
  Speaker 11: It doesn't have to be people who are putting in,
• 1:35:30
  Speaker 11: you know, 20 or 25 hours a week to have
• 1:35:32
  Speaker 11: a difference. So but but we need kids, I think,
• 1:35:34
  Speaker 11: hopefully to be part of that, too. So they're holding
• 1:35:37
  Speaker 11: us all accountable and also using their own creative talents
• 1:35:41
  Speaker 11: for the greater good.
• 1:35:43
  Speaker 2: David Plouffe, thanks for joining us.
• 1:35:46
  Speaker 11: John Lovett, always good to be with you, my friend.
• 1:35:53
  Speaker 1: Thanks to Plouffe for joining us today. We'll see you
• 1:35:55
  Speaker 1: guys tomorrow night. Livestream, youtube.com slash Crooked Media. And then
• 1:35:59
  Speaker 1: the three of us and Dan will be doing a
• 1:36:01
  Speaker 1: pod on Wednesday about the Super Tuesday results. Might as
• 1:36:04
  Speaker 1: well just sit in front of this fucking microphone for
• 1:36:05
  Speaker 1: the next five weeks.
• 1:36:07
  Speaker 2: All right, everyone.
• 1:36:09
  Speaker 1: We'll see you later. Pod Save America is a product
• 1:36:13
  Speaker 1: of Crooked Media. The executive producer is Michael Martinez. Our
• 1:36:16
  Speaker 1: assistant producer is Jordan Waller. It's mixed and edited by
• 1:36:20
  Speaker 1: Andrew Chadwick. Kyle Seglin is our sound engineer. Thanks to
• 1:36:23
  Speaker 1: Tanya Sominator, Katie Long, Roman Papadimitriou, Caroline Reston, and Elisa
• 1:36:27
  Speaker 1: Gutierrez for production support. And to our digital team, Elijah Cohn,
• 1:36:30
  Speaker 1: Nar Melkonian, Yale Freed, and Milo Kim, who film and
• 1:36:33
  Speaker 1: upload these episodes as videos every week.