Latest / The Illinois Nutrient Loss Reduction Podcast / Episode 54 | Navigating Extreme Weather Impacts on Agriculture
Transcript
- Episode 54 | Navigating Extreme Weather Impacts on Agriculture 00:00:05:28 - 00:00:35:11 Todd Gleason This is episode 54 of the Illinois Nutrient Loss Reduction Podcast. Navigating extreme weather impacts on Illinois agriculture. I'm University of Illinois Extension's Todd Gleason. Today, we'll take up the changing climate and the larger events that are happening around the Midwest as it relates to row crop production and how producers and others may mitigate them. We'll start with that changing climate with Trent Ford. 00:00:35:12 - 00:00:42:28 Todd Gleason He's a state climatologist at the Illinois State Water Survey. I called and asked him to tell me a little bit about himself. 00:00:43:01 - 00:01:02:01 Trent Ford Yeah. So, I'm the, Illinois state climatologist and based at the State Water survey, the University of Illinois. And so I'm a climate scientist by training. So part of my work is, climate research into especially I like to study, you know, extreme events that have to do with water and climate. 00:01:02:02 - 00:01:23:14 Trent Ford So I think about drought, extreme rain, flooding, things like that. And, and then there, their different impacts, as well as I study the impacts of changes in our climate and, when I say impacts really mean kind of sectoral impacts in Illinois. So things to agriculture, but also water resources industry, things like that. And then the other half my job is, is really outreach. 00:01:23:14 - 00:01:30:05 Trent Ford So a lot of public outreach and engagement media, interaction. And then work with our state agencies. 00:01:30:12 - 00:01:35:29 Todd Gleason You interact directly with agriculture on sometimes a daily, certainly a weekly basis, I would think. 00:01:36:01 - 00:01:47:15 Trent Ford Yeah. You know, I mean, it can it can range from, you know, weekly reports and summaries, like what? You know, Todd, you and I, work with our, calls with extension. 00:01:47:17 - 00:02:13:04 Trent Ford But it also can be, things like, creating climate reports and information for Illinois Department of Ag or Illinois Farm Bureau. Giving public speaking events, talking about either current events or current conditions with our weather and climate, or maybe things to look forward to. With, with climate change, we just did two kind of back to back event, one in Piatt County that was put on by their Farm Bureau. 00:02:13:04 - 00:02:32:01 Trent Ford And then yesterday the SIU ag day down in Bellville. So that's, you know, working directly with farmers. And so, yeah, I like you mentioned on the, on a day to day basis sometimes, but but certainly on a weekly basis, you know, keeping in touch with, the ag community, ag researchers and, and extension all over the state. 00:02:32:04 - 00:02:36:05 Todd Gleason Longer term, do you expect more volatility within the weather patterns? 00:02:36:08 - 00:02:58:27 Trent Ford You know, this is this is a really good question. You know, something that we've seen historically the last several decades is is a trend towards increasing intensity of precipitation or precipitation variability. So we think about what that really means is thinking about a condition like what we had across, parts of the Saint Louis Metro East area last summer, where, you know, we went for, 6 or 7 weeks with very little rain. 00:02:58:29 - 00:03:11:05 Trent Ford You know, for Memorial Day to the 4th of July, I think the Saint Louis Metro East area maybe had an inch and a half of rain is not much at all. And then they get ten inches of rain in 12 hours, and then it's dry again. Right. So you add it all up for the course of the summer. 00:03:11:05 - 00:03:32:12 Trent Ford And Saint Louis had its six wettest summer on record last year. But it's not it's not the same kind of precipitation regime that we're sort of used to with more gentle rains. And it's certainly not ideal. Or think about cropping systems, when we stress the crop with a ton of or with, with, with dry conditions and then we dump a bunch of rain on it, most of it runs off carries with it some nutrients and topsoil. 00:03:32:15 - 00:03:51:04 Trent Ford And then the water is not there. So, you know, to to to your question more directly, do we expect those kind of trends towards that increasing intensity to continue? It's a tough question because models, our climate models on which we base the projections of what to expect for the future is, are a bit uncertain with how they do project. 00:03:51:07 - 00:04:16:20 Trent Ford Increases in precipitation intensity. So an increase in more of those extreme types of rainfall events. We're getting several inches of rain in just a handful of hours. But, you know, the kind of the kind of mechanisms that create those really intense rainfall events are, are hard for the models to pick up. So I, I always like to say, you know, the there's nothing indicating that we're going to shift away from this kind of trend of increasing intensity. 00:04:16:22 - 00:04:23:26 Trent Ford But the degree to which precipitation intensity changes between now and let's say, 2050 or 2080 is still a bit uncertain. 00:04:24:02 - 00:04:41:01 Todd Gleason Is there, in those same models, longer dry spells in between the large rainfalls? And I'm not talking about drought. Well, maybe I'm talking about drought type spells, but just the length of time gives you a flash drought and then suddenly a flash flood. 00:04:41:04 - 00:05:01:00 Trent Ford Yeah. You know, that's that's a it's a good question. They do show longer periods of dryness, especially in the summertime in between, wet conditions. And so, you know, when you look at projections of summer rainfall, a lot of people make a big deal about the fact that's, you know, when you take a bunch of models and average them together, it looks like summer is drying slightly in the Midwest and by it's throughout this century. 00:05:01:00 - 00:05:30:09 Trent Ford But, you know, those those absolute changes in summer precipitation are on the order of 2 to 5%. Either way, give or take positive or negative, which really means nothing. It's really more the characteristics of the summer rainfall that matter. And so, like you said, if you have the same amount of rainfall as we've been getting, let's say between 12 and 15in of rain in the summertime across the state, but you're getting those in, in a handful of very intensive events that are separated by prolonged dry spells, depending on, on the level at which your soil can take that water in. 00:05:30:09 - 00:05:57:28 Trent Ford And the timing of those dry spells, like you mentioned, you know, a dry spell can turn into a drought if it's poorly timed. And, you know, time's up with some, critical crop stages. And so, that is something that is projected, those longer dry spells, and combined with the fact that summer temperatures are increasing, which means evaporation is increasing, it could, despite an overall outlook of a wetter Illinois in coming decades, like what we've seen historically. 00:05:57:28 - 00:06:19:20 Trent Ford And the trends, despite that, we may see increased drought stress in some years when we do have those dry spells that are poorly timed. All of this to say that, you know, the, the management for, not prolonged drought, you know, we don't want to think about the 1950s as something that's likely not going to be happening is often where we have multiple, multiple years of drought. 00:06:19:20 - 00:06:42:03 Trent Ford But kind of these these short term droughts that maybe last a month or two months, and then are kind of interspersed with big rain events. What we really want to do is be maximizing the, the, amount of water that our soils can take in and can keep. So soil infiltration rates and soil water retention is extremely important, so that when we get the big burst of rain, it soaks down. 00:06:42:03 - 00:06:50:21 Trent Ford So it's not just ponding at the surface of the soil. So it soaks down the deeper layer, so that it's there, that water is there when you have those kind of prolonged dry spells. 00:06:50:26 - 00:07:13:11 Todd Gleason When you talk to the rest of the folks at the Illinois State Water Survey, the Prairie Research Institute, what do they say about the soil conditions that allow it to take in, that water, that rainfall more effectively and how and what needs to be done to make soils, better at hold at their holding capacity. 00:07:13:14 - 00:07:36:15 Trent Ford Yeah. You know, the the the research is done on the Prairie Research Institute and, the aces college of aces on, on, on, campus of Illinois and with extension and, you know, it's it's, it's it's it all kind of points in the same direction when it comes to soil and water management. And it's funny, we go to these ag shows and, you know, it'll be like 3 or 4 folks from extension, maybe a couple of folks from other universities or somewhere. 00:07:36:15 - 00:08:01:13 Trent Ford And, and I'll listen to their talks and, whether they're coming from an entomology standpoint or a weed science standpoint or a agronomy standpoint, you know, a lot of the same kind of strategies are really, highlighted, you know, things like cover cropping, conservation or no till, you know, reasonable crop rotation and maybe even throwing in perennial cropping systems on, on especially some of the marginal grounds. 00:08:01:15 - 00:08:26:20 Trent Ford And these are things that are touted for their, weed suppression or their, their insect pest sort of benefits or their economic benefits, depending on, on things like carbon markets and stuff like that. And then I come up there and I say, oh, by the way, all of these things that we've just talked about that all these people have talked about also have climate benefits because they are a reducing runoff, nutrient runoff, which we know is a big problem. 00:08:26:20 - 00:08:48:07 Trent Ford And and your topsoil erosion, which is also a major problem, economic problem. They're also helping your your soil infiltration rates. And that's what study after study have shown, is that the combination of those things and I understand, you know, folks have individual operations. They have different types of ground and soils they're working with. So maybe one strategy doesn't work, but another strategy does. 00:08:48:07 - 00:09:08:03 Trent Ford So it's really more of a cafeteria kind of approach as opposed to just, you know, everybody should do the same thing. But implementing a combination of those approaches that we that have been talked about, that has been shown across the board, not just in Midwest, but across the board in agriculture to improve your soil health, your your soil biome, and then your soil infiltration rates. 00:09:08:05 - 00:09:17:06 Trent Ford And so, and again, fighting against both the flooding side of things where we're getting these really intense rainfall events and then the dry spell or drought side of things as well. 00:09:17:12 - 00:09:19:23 Todd Gleason How does that fight against the drought side? 00:09:19:27 - 00:09:32:14 Trent Ford Well, so if you improve your soil infiltration rates when you do get that rainfall, this is the thing is that if we getting let's say if I say, okay, CHampaign’s going to get five inches of rain over the next two weeks, everybody here would probably be like, hey, we'll take it. 00:09:32:16 - 00:09:51:24 Trent Ford But, if that's going to come that one day where we get five inches in a 12 hour period, versus, you know, getting five inches spread over many gentle rains. You know, in that intense situation, that the soil, it may rain five inches and your rain gauge says five inches, but the soil is going to take in a fraction of that. 00:09:51:27 - 00:10:11:26 Trent Ford And once that top layer is saturated, it's going to essentially act as impervious surface like concrete, and the rest is going to run off. And of course, that carries with it. Doc, I mentioned topsoil, nutrients is is, not a great situation. But the the higher the soil infiltration rates, the, the lower the runoff is going to be, the higher the infiltration is going to be. 00:10:11:29 - 00:10:28:21 Trent Ford And so instead of netting, let's say just hypothetically a half inch or three quarters of an inch of that five inch rain, maybe you're capturing an inch and a half or two inches and that water is in the soil, which means that if we get five inches tomorrow and then we go two weeks without any rain, you still got water in the soil. 00:10:28:28 - 00:10:50:24 Trent Ford If you don't get those good soil infiltration rates, you got a bunch of runoff coming off your soil. That water is gone. And it's down stream down the Sangamon, and down down the Illinois, down the Mississippi, out in the Gulf. You don't have it where you want it, which is on your field. In your field. Really. So, so that's how the soil filtration rates can help reduce the runoff surge, when we get those really intense rainfall events. 00:10:50:24 - 00:10:56:12 Trent Ford But keeping the water, you know, in the soil, that's how they can help with those drought conditions, too. 00:10:56:14 - 00:11:12:21 Todd Gleason So it's about, creating, channels, within the soil structure for rainfall. Er, either one to move. That may be from the cover crop where the root is dying off in the channels or there, I suppose, or other places. 00:11:12:24 - 00:11:18:22 Todd Gleason If you're no till, worms, of course. Making channels in the soil. Something like that, I guess. 00:11:18:24 - 00:11:34:23 Trent Ford Yeah, yeah. Now, you know, from the, from the when we get into the, the, the agronomic details of how things like cover crops improve soil infiltration, that's where my expertise ends very quickly. I'm pulling in from the experts here that say that that happens, you know, but I it was interesting. 00:11:34:23 - 00:12:09:16 Trent Ford I was talking to somebody, down in Bellville yesterday, and they said that they have, you know, they've been doing experiments where they've been cover cropping and, and, doing, conservation or, no tillage for ten years. And, and over that ten year period, what they've seen is, the, the nearby exact same kind of soils that have been, tilled and have had not had the cover crops on it for the last ten years when they get a four inch rain event, for example, in a single day that that soil nets about a half inch or so and, maybe an up to an inch, and they said that on 00:12:09:16 - 00:12:35:15 Trent Ford their, their, their soils that they've been doing the conservation or no tillage and the cover crop for the last ten years. They don't get runoff out of those fields until they reach the four inch mark. So that's just additional water that that soil is netting, and getting down in the deeper layer. And, and but, you know, as I mentioned, as kind of kind of alluded to in this person I was talking to was mentioning this, that it's the ten year, the ten year number is not, random. 00:12:35:15 - 00:13:01:04 Trent Ford I mean, it takes a while to build in those benefits. And so, this is one of the, I guess, one of the issues with, with, with these kind of strategies, with conservation, they're, they're extremely important. But, if you, if you have been doing, you know, pretty regular tillage and not implementing, cover crops for a long time on your fields, and you want to start seeing the benefits of doing those things. 00:13:01:04 - 00:13:20:09 Trent Ford It's going to take a little while, going to take several years. And and often in agriculture, we can think on a year to year basis, you know, just for better or worse. It's kind of the way it is. So, so, you know, it's it's one of those things that, you know, and whenever I'm talking about these strategies from a climate standpoint, I always remark, okay, this isn't getting into these. 00:13:20:09 - 00:13:34:18 Trent Ford This is not my expertise. I just want to make the point that that the real experts are saying these have climate benefits, but also these are long term kind of solutions, just as important to implement, but something that you're not necessarily going to see the benefit of right away. 00:13:34:20 - 00:13:39:07 Todd Gleason So I suppose your advice to farmers is to be proactive and think long term. 00:13:39:11 - 00:13:57:18 Trent Ford Yeah. Exactly. Exactly. And that's that's the thing being proactive, thinking long term. And that's what climate change is about. I mean, if we if we're only thinking on year to year timescales, well, the year to year variability of weather is going to dominate that. So for example, I'm telling you Illinois is getting wetter. And we had a really significant drought between April and June. 00:13:57:18 - 00:14:36:28 Trent Ford Well that's weather variability. It's climate variability. But when we when we get beyond that year to year thinking, we start thinking decade to decade. The longer term, when we start wanting to talk about long term productivity, that's when these kind of trends really come in to be important. And so what we don't want to do is think year to year for the next 20 years, get ourselves up to 2050, and then say, well, I'm seeing losses every single year because I haven't planned ahead for, to to mitigate these kind of, changes in our precipitation characteristic to be more intense and, you know, more frequent dry spells, things like that. 00:14:37:01 - 00:15:09:15 Todd Gleason And it was Trent Ford. He is the state climatologist at the Illinois State Water Survey located on the Urbana-Champaign campus of the University of Illinois within the Prairie Research Institute. We were talking about those larger, more intense rainfall events and the impacts they have on soils, soil erosion, compaction, all kinds of other things related to crop production. He mentioned that the College of Aces, the agricultural, Consumer and Environmental Sciences and University of Illinois Extension have also been doing a great deal of research in this area. 00:15:09:15 - 00:15:22:29 Todd Gleason Connor Sible was a student not long ago, and he works for Is now in crop sciences. He's been looking at these heavy rainfall events and their impacts. 00:15:22:29 - 00:15:34:13 Connor Sible This is it's been a great project for the year. We're doing with this, thankfully, being, Grant with the USDA, led by an initiated doctor at Dr. Esther Ngumbi, so it's a collaboration project. 00:15:34:13 - 00:15:55:20 Connor Sible So we kind of help get the group together, as well as Doctor Angela Kent and Doctor Fred Below and myself to get four of us working on this project for many different angle, really focused on understanding some of these extreme climate events and what that can, mean for our crop moving forward after these events, after. what 00:15:55:20 - 00:15:58:29 Trent Ford What kinds of outcomes are you hoping to obtain from the research? 00:15:58:29 - 00:16:01:19 Todd Gleason What what kind of data are you hoping to collect? 00:16:01:21 - 00:16:23:03 Connor Sible Yeah. So one of the things that I love about this collaboration, we have three very or different, disciplines coming at it, you know, Dr. Ngumbi’s background and anthology and plant defense metabolite. It's an understanding of and then I'll give a little background of this study. We're more or less inducing 6, 7 days of near soil saturation. 00:16:23:06 - 00:16:39:02 Connor Sible You know, near flooding condition, not enough to kill the crop off, but certainly to stress the crop. And so when that crop is stressed, after we get a heavy, heavy rain event or multiple, rain events in a couple of days in a row, you know, what is the plant changing and expressing to react and respond to that. 00:16:39:02 - 00:17:14:23 Connor Sible So that's kind of the first approach. What's going on inside the plant from the, the satellite perspective? Doctor, Kent’s work is really fun with it. Well, because what's going on below ground. Right. So, the soil, the microbiome, you know, just like plants respond to the extreme climate event, how do the microbes in our toil and so better understanding of what happens to the microbes before or after flooding events, especially the recovery both in the plants and in the soil, how fast do plants or microbes recover after a flooding event, which microbes recover a big increase. 00:17:14:25 - 00:17:34:10 Connor Sible Is that the benefits of that come back faster? Or maybe the pathogen microbes in our soil, do they kind of get a comeback after flooding events? So just trying to understand some bigger picture from there. But then from the farmer perspective, you got a crop that can saturated nitrogen deficient now, and you have to ask yourself a question. 00:17:34:10 - 00:17:56:19 Connor Sible Do you put out residue nitrogen or not? That's the agronomy side that we're looking at it from. And if so, how much nitrogen could you apply so that you when I think about the outcome to a better understanding of how the crop and soil reacts to these events, and then is there a way to recover to get an economic yield advantage out of the, crop after they experienced that event? 00:17:56:23 - 00:17:58:22 Connor Sible Those are the main objectives that we're working on. 00:17:58:27 - 00:18:20:11 Todd Gleason And for those of you listening that would like to hear more about Dr Ngumbi’s research, she was at a field day, on Wednesday, the 19th day of July. And you can look up the closing market report for that date in the closing market report podcast. I do want to get one final note from you, about some of this research. 00:18:20:11 - 00:18:27:11 Todd Gleason What advice do you have for other farmers who are trying to mitigate the impact of weather extremes? 00:18:27:13 - 00:18:43:29 Connor Sible Yep, yep. And that's that's the golden question, right? Thankfully, they seem so much more unpredictable these days. The best advice I have is just be patient. Watch, observe. And, you know, don't always give up on that crop too early. 00:18:43:29 - 00:19:07:00 Connor Sible I think last year, 22 was a great example. You know, it was dry early in the year, kind of like we're experiencing this season. But then grain fill period was perfect condition. Cool nights in August and our kernel weight went through the roof. And we actually had phenomenal yield at the end. Because you're trying to, you know, understand how to manage the crop as these new, extreme events come through. 00:19:07:03 - 00:19:27:03 Connor Sible Just don't give up on the crop. And, you know, do you need that in-season nitrogen application after a rain event or whatever those fungicide, disease presents? And don't you know if that application is necessary? You still make that application, and that crop got a long way to go, even after, you know, August 1st. So that would be my my best advice. 00:19:27:05 - 00:19:30:15 Connor Sible Be patient lot, observe. And don't always give up on that crop. Keep doing. 00:19:30:18 - 00:19:53:14 Todd Gleason Connor Sible, he’s a crop scientist in the College of Agricultural, Consumer and Environmental Sciences, he's been working through thinking about and researching climate change and and the larger rainfall events that have been coming along with it, and what kinds of conservation practices farmers might continue to use and develop to mitigate some of the impacts of extreme weather conditions. 00:19:53:16 - 00:20:08:00 Todd Gleason I also spoke for this podcast with John Zumwalt. He's a farmer from Sheldon, Illinois in Iroquois County, and I asked him to tell me about what he's already been up to as it relates to mitigation of water flow. 00:20:08:02 - 00:20:17:07 John Zumwalt Well, we continue to, expand our waterway network and also or course of adopt a no till. And so that limits the amount of runoff. 00:20:17:15 - 00:20:45:23 John Zumwalt And, so, it's all been pretty productive. And it seems like that the rains we're getting are fewer, but they're heavier now. And so I think we need to think in terms of, preparing for four inch rains and things and, you know, and maybe installing, more tile to handle some of those. And, I think one of the things that people look at tile is that, tile, lowers the water table in the soil. 00:20:46:00 - 00:21:01:27 John Zumwalt And so it has more capacity to absorb water as it comes down. And, so I think that's, a key thing that a lot of people don't see it that way because they think that that more tile is, adding to the problem. But so, yeah. 00:21:01:28 - 00:21:21:07 Todd Gleason This is an issue since you are familiar with the drainage issues and work with the Farm Bureau and other places trying to tile a farm that is isolated by itself can be very difficult, because you don't always have a place to run the tiles to. 00:21:21:09 - 00:21:23:28 Todd Gleason And and so how do you get around those kinds of issues? 00:21:24:05 - 00:21:46:25 John Zumwalt Well, I think technology has been a big thing because now they can, find sources that we never outlets that we never had before because, of the GPS technology and the depth control, we just put in a system that, that snaked all around the hills and it was able to drain, spots that we never really could afford. 00:21:47:00 - 00:22:12:03 John Zumwalt So, technology has been good on these tiling outfits to, set the grade, so they do drain. So it's a part of your controlling nutrient loss and the rainfall event runoff. Relatively speaking, is to to lower that, water table. By putting the tile in, make sure that the water holding capacity of the soil is available for the rainfall. 00:22:12:05 - 00:22:17:24 John Zumwalt When the event is large enough. That really doesn't matter if it's large enough fast enough. 00:22:17:24 - 00:22:20:27 Todd Gleason You said you had been expanding your waterways. Can you talk about that? 00:22:21:03 - 00:22:38:20 John Zumwalt Yeah. We're, trying to develop a little bit more and then see, you know, going out when it is raining to see what direction the water is going and, where we could expand and, you know, kind of let the letting the water decide where it wants to go and then working in that direction to try to. 00:22:38:21 - 00:22:49:15 Todd Gleason Do you have advice for producers going forward related to these larger rainfall events and how they should think about them and manage them on their properties? 00:22:49:17 - 00:23:16:03 John Zumwalt I think we need to, develop some areas where there could be some, some flooding and some pockets where that are not crop growing. That's in the best crop growing areas that they can hold some water for a short period of time and, maybe get some funding from the NRCS to, maybe, maybe have some small ponds, you know, just sort of hold some of this water back from the rivers and things. 00:23:16:06 - 00:23:45:28 John Zumwalt We're kind of we're working with the Kankakee River and the Iroquois River to try to develop some funding like Indiana has been doing. They are developing stream bank, work and then also trying to develop areas that could be flooded and do flood and just to take them out of production or for partially or maybe just cut them for hay, you know, and, so I think that might be the secret to, you know, on these big rain events to try to hold some of that water back. 00:23:45:28 - 00:24:10:29 Todd Gleason That was John Zumwalt, he's a farmer near Sheldon in Iroquois County, Illinois. We spoke with him for this nutrient loss reduction podcast. Episode number 54: navigating extreme weather impacts on agriculture. And of course, our program is produced in conjunction with the Illinois Extension Watershed Outreach Associates. Rachel Curry and Nicole Haverback, I'm Illinois Extension's Todd Gleason.