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Grains: 2025 Crop Tour Day 3 · Professional Ag Marketing Podcast

0:01
SPEAKER_00: Today is August 5th, 2025 on the s what third day?
0:08
SPEAKER_00: Second?
0:09
SPEAKER_00: Third day.
0:10
SPEAKER_00: Third day of our crop tour here.
0:12
SPEAKER_00: I've got Jaden here with me.
0:14
SPEAKER_00: Uh welcome to the 2025 Professional Egg Marketing Crop Tour brought to you by Green Key Egg.
0:19
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0:21
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0:24
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0:33
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0:46
SPEAKER_00: Alright, what do you think?
0:47
SPEAKER_00: We're sitting here just at Bruno's waiting for a pizza.
0:50
SPEAKER_00: We're gonna do a podcast after our third day on the road.
0:53
SPEAKER_00: And where'd we go today, Jaden?
0:55
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, Mike, we took we made six stops today.
0:59
SPEAKER_01: We started the day in Vermilion County, Illinois, and we've made all the way through Ohio and then back up through northern Indiana, and we're in uh uh where are we at again, Mike?
1:12
SPEAKER_00: Logan Sport right now, Indiana.
1:15
SPEAKER_00: We'll end up tonight in Lafayette there.
1:17
SPEAKER_00: So kind of the northwest central part of uh Indiana there anyway.
1:23
SPEAKER_00: So let's let's start on the first part of our journey today.
1:26
SPEAKER_00: What did you learn?
1:28
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I the story of Illinois and in the bottom half at least.
1:33
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, in the bottom half at least so far is every sample we seem to pull is just not the same as last year.
1:39
SPEAKER_01: In Vermillion County, there, I mean, yes, the crops passed the eye test.
1:44
SPEAKER_01: I mean, they look they look green, there's really no signs of stress, but our samples are just not not even really close to last year.
1:51
SPEAKER_01: I mean, in that first stop we were pulling 16 by 28s, and last year they were 18 by 42s.
1:58
SPEAKER_01: And uh I mean they're they're the people in the area are pretty hopeful for uh yields, but uh I don't I just don't see any record setting yields.
2:07
SPEAKER_00: So the samples just weren't quite there.
2:08
SPEAKER_00: There probably shouldn't be too much wrong with the crop.
2:10
SPEAKER_00: It just seemed like compared to last year's uh we just didn't have the the samples out of the field basically.
2:17
SPEAKER_00: So I well we'll see as we wrap through the north side of Illinois tomorrow on what kind of uh data that'll give us.
2:23
SPEAKER_00: How about in Indiana?
2:25
SPEAKER_00: Because we finished Indiana uh on most of the saps except one, but we'll give an Ohio estimate here.
2:33
SPEAKER_00: So uh what do you see on the first bottom side of Indiana going through?
2:37
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I thought Indiana looked pretty strong, uh pretty similar to last year, good overall conditions.
2:43
SPEAKER_01: Um the samples we pulled are very consistent, it seemed like, and um there was really no signs of stress, and um a lot of the locals said they they've had really good moisture and and they've been pretty spread out rains too.
2:57
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, nothing really wrong with this other part of Indiana as we went through there really.
3:02
SPEAKER_00: Um now Ohio.
3:04
SPEAKER_00: Ohio's gonna be a big X factor for us at least.
3:08
SPEAKER_00: A major hindrance right off the bat for them was a slow planting pace to start off with, and then the crop kind of caught up in the season.
3:17
SPEAKER_00: Um what did you think we saw out of the Ohio crop in in total this year?
3:22
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, uh a lot of our samples, I mean, they're they were not as mature as our as other samples in different states, but um I think yeah, the low the slower start to planting really is is going to affect them and it's just uneven development and in the in the ears, and I just I think you know last year that that held them back.
3:46
SPEAKER_01: I mean we kind of had them at a higher yield, but they only finished at 177.
3:50
SPEAKER_01: I kind of think we're seeing the same thing this year.
3:52
SPEAKER_00: We have a little bit of PTSD from last year because we missed it.
3:56
SPEAKER_00: We uh we definitely shot too high last year, but a similar weather pattern and similar season to last year this year.
4:03
SPEAKER_00: And when I look at Ohio, that's gonna be one of the hardest states to judge a yield on this year.
4:07
SPEAKER_00: It's got a very, very wide from what 177 estimate, 175 estimate on some private analysts up to one over 190.
4:16
SPEAKER_00: So there's a huge range of estimates that's gonna make it really tough to judge Ohio, in our opinion, probably closer to the 180, 175.
4:24
SPEAKER_00: What do you think we came up with for an average yield there?
4:26
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I think we're sticking with the 180 number.
4:29
SPEAKER_00: A 180 number, so just slightly higher than some of the private analysts, but definitely lower than the Stone X estimate.
4:35
SPEAKER_00: But it's a very hard crop to judge just because of the lack of maturity.
4:39
SPEAKER_00: We did not find a lot of developed ears to try to take samples of, a lot of white left out there, no denting at all.
4:46
SPEAKER_00: I mean, it it was very um, you know, halfway through pollination in some of those stops.
4:51
SPEAKER_00: So uh that was a very hard state to judge, and probably will be going forward as well.
4:56
SPEAKER_00: As we wrapped back on the north side of Indiana, we didn't quite finish out the stops today, but uh, what did you see in the northern eastern part of Indiana in those stops?
5:06
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, they they were a lot farther ahead for crop development compared to Ohio, anyways.
5:11
SPEAKER_01: Um it we did see uh probably one of our drier fields we've seen so far, some cracking in the soil.
5:17
SPEAKER_01: Uh, they're in a little bit of drought.
5:20
SPEAKER_00: Um just a little bit on the drought map.
5:22
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, just a tad, but yeah.
5:24
SPEAKER_01: I think the samples we pulled are pretty were pretty close to last year, and based on current conditions, I think they're gonna be pretty similar to last year.
5:31
SPEAKER_00: I agree, I agree.
5:33
SPEAKER_00: So nothing too crazy for the northern part of Indiana.
5:36
SPEAKER_00: Uh a little bit easier for us to judge, at least there.
5:39
SPEAKER_00: So let us know what you have, guys, out in that Ohio, Indiana area this year, even Illinois.
5:46
SPEAKER_00: I want to see some samples from the fields that you guys send in.
5:49
SPEAKER_00: I'm very curious because uh Ohio, like I said, difficult to judge, and then uh Indiana as well as we wrap up tomorrow's estimate.
5:57
SPEAKER_00: Um, that one out of the two I'd probably say would be a little bit closer.
6:00
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6:56
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7:04
SPEAKER_00: Thank you for your time today, Jaden.