Latest / Bloomberg Intelligence / P&L: Training for Modern Jobs Is the Answer to Wage Stagnation

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P&L: Training for Modern Jobs Is the Answer to Wage Stagnation · Bloomberg Intelligence

• 0:04
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg P and L Podcast. I'm Pim Fox.
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Along with my co host Lisa Abramowitz. Each day we
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: bring you the most important, noteworthy, and useful interviews for
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: you and your money, whether you at the grocery store
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: or the trading floor. Find the Bloomberg P L Podcast
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: on iTunes, SoundCloud and at Bloomberg dot com. All right,
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: let's go to our nation's capital and Chris Lou. He's
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: a Deputy secretary for the Department of Labor, here to
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: tell us more about the just released at eight thirty
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: Wall Street time November payroll report. Deputy Secretary Lou, thanks
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: very much for being with us. Thank you for having me.
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: All right, so just give us the specific details and
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: then we'll get into things like the participation rating song.
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: But the one and seventy eight thousand on the payroll
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: and four point six on unemployment. One seventy eight thousand
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: jobs that created in the month in November. That essentially
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: matches the average that we've had during over the past
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: seventy four months. We've created fifteen point six million private
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: sector jobs. That continues the longest trip of job creation
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: in history. As you said, four point six percent unemployment.
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: Uh that's the lowest than the August of two thousand seven.
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: Uh in comparison to where we were at the peak
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: of the recession about ten percent. Well, so what do
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: you say about the wages? I mean, we were hearing
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: earlier from Bloomberg Intelligence is Carl Rickadonna about how perhaps
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: the decline in wages that we saw in November was
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: really due to a quirk really in October, so it
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: was not such a big deal. But still, why has
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: there been such a lack of momentum in wage growth? Well, look,
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: you're right, there was an uptick in November that some
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: of that pulled back. So over the past twelve months
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: wages have grown two point five p m. That's good,
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: but it's only to be better when you consider the
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: long term stagnational wages that most workers have felt. You know,
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: when you take a look at this long term trend
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: though in for instance, the household income grew by the
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: fastest amount and records, So, um, the trend is going
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: in the right direction, but clearly much more needs to
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: be done, which is why the President continues to call
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: for increase in the minimum wage while we're pushing to
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: provide greater overtime protection to American workers. Have have you
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: done any workers or maybe just give us your perspective
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: on the ability for companies to pass along the price
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: increases that they may experience if they do increase wages,
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: because many companies are now able to avail themselves of
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: labor saving technology, which means that they don't even have
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: to worry about passing along those increased wage costs. Well,
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: what has been interesting, and today the White House released
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: the new reports showing how the minimum wage increases that
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: have um gone into effect in a number of states
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: have not led to any decline and employment. And you
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: actually see many companies raising wages. That's what happens when
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: you have unemployment at for point six. In order to
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: attract the workers you need and keep them, wages are
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: going to go up and that you you start to
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: see that trend over the last couple of years. UM.
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: One thing that has been talked about is that the
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: job growth among millennials, among the younger generation just as
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: lagged behind UM. How concerned are you about that? What?
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: What kind of information did you kind of glean from
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: this report? Well, I'm not sure, right, I'm not sure
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: there's anything particularly in this report. Although I think your
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: point is an important one. It's not only meant millennials
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: who are unemployed, it's millennials who are underemployed as well. Um,
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: you know, we're in the middle of kind of longer
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: term changes in the demographics of the workforce. You have
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: older workers who are staying longer, which is probably diminishing
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: opportunities for younger workers. You have more young people in
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: school that weren't thirty years ago, and it's one of
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: the reasons why labor force participation is where it is
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: right now. Well, that's what I was going to ask
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: you next, is so if it sounds all great, then
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: why is the labor force participation rate at the lowest
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: level since nine eight? Well, again, you know, it's it's
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: hard to it's hard, and this has been a long
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: term trend. I mean, with all due respect, I mean,
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: you know this is a move lower from a rate
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: last month of sixty two point eight percent. Okay, now
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: this is sixty two point seven. But this has been
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: a long term trend. You're right, it's been a longer
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: term training over the last forty years where you've seen
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: the drop in the labor force participation. In part, it's
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: because you have more people UM now who are in
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: school that um weren't in school before. You have people
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: older workers, some working long or some not working as long.
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: It does speak to the importance of sensible policies to
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: get people off the sidelines and into the workforce. One
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: of the ways we know that you can do that
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: is through paid leaf policies. We have far too many
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: UM women who are not working UH and staying at home.
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: And I shouldn't say women, fathers and mothers who are
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: staying at home who's through sensible paid leaf policies would
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: be able to work again. It was certainly seen that
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: happen in other countries. So you were talking about how
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: the increase in wage UH, the increase in wages has
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: been about two point five over the past twelve months.
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: What's your projection for the next twelve months of what
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: those how much those wages will increase. Well, I'm not
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: sure I can make a projection. I will tell you though,
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: that UM, when you have an economy that is at
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: four point six percent unemployment, you would expect to see
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: continued wage growth simply as employers need to pay more
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: to keep more workers. But again, whether it's two and
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: a half percent or three and a half percent, that's
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: just not enough. I mean, we need there's been a
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: longer term wage stagnation that's happened over the last couple
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: of decades. The President is called for an increase in
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: the minimum wage. It's one of the reasons why we're
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: pushing to increase the overtime salary thresholds. But more broadly,
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: why we are as focused as we are on training
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: people for the good paying jobs of the twenty first century,
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: whether it's advanced manufacturing, I T healthcare, that is really
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: the ultimate solution to wage stagnation. If that's the solution
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: to wage stagnation, I just want to bring your attention
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: back to that labor force participation rate. I mean, it's
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: been declining, but it's been declining from two thousand Before
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: that it was rising. So for the following sixteen years,
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: for the two four year terms of President Obama, we've
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: we've seen a small uptick in two thousand five, but
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: then a precipitates dropped. Do you think that that's because
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: of the increased availability of credit inexpensive credit? You know,
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: I'm not sure I would I would claim that as
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: a reason as much as the demographic changes we've seen
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: in the country. But you're right. I mean, whether it's
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: UH mothers and fathers who would be working but aren't
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: because of the lack of paid leave policy, whether it's
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: younger people who can't find employment or who are underemployed. UM,
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: there are broader demographic issues that we need to address.
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: UM going forward, what are you sort of looking for
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: with respect to where jobs are, where people are gaining jobs,
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: and what are you hoping for. What's the best case
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: scenario for employment rates over the next year? And well,
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: I would tell you that, I mean this past month,
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: we have seen a strong growth and professional business services, UH, construction, healthcare,
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: particularly when you look at healthcare UM, that's been a
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: long term positive trend. UM. I would note that since
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: the passage of the Affordable Care Act, we've created two
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: million jobs in the healthcare sector. So there are many
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: many jobs that continue to do well. We know how
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: to get some of these other ones kick started. One
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: of them is through a long term UM infrastructure built,
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: which not only creates good paying construction jobs, but good
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: paying manufacturing jobs as well. Chris Leu thank you so
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: much for joining US. Unbridled optimism has been the key
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: to stock markets since the US election when Donald Trump
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: was selected as the next president of the US. Will
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: it continue with us? Here is Peter Kenny, senior market
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: strategist at Global Markets Advisory Group. He has been in
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: the market for more than three decades. He sits on
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: the boards of companies, he advises governments. Uh, Peter, you
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: have a good read on markets. How are the people
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: you're talking about allocating now and are they shifting after
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: the U s election? Well, I think it's very interesting, Lisa.
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: We're seeing several major themes really impacting US equities specifically,
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: and the largest of those themes, of course, is the
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: rotation out of dead instruments and into equities because of
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: the the expectation that as a result of the stimulus
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: provided by the incoming Trump administration, you will see some
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: very significant gains in sectors of the economy that have
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: really not really generated a lot of investor enthusiasm. And
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: I'm speaking specifically of infrastructure and defense areas where we
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: have over the lay of state you've seen tremendous performance
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: and investor enthusiasm. Like large cap tech probably going to
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: be an underperforming sector moving forward, at least in time frame. Peter,
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: I want to just press you a little bit here
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: because this idea of infrastructure spending and more spending and
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: the defense and aerospace industry, I mean I got that.
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: You can read that in the headlines, but the details
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: are that none of that money is going to be
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: allocated unless it is proposed and then ratified and passed
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: by the House and the Senate. That could take quite
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: a while. And last time I checked stock markets, they
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: love to buy the rumor and they love to sell
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: the news. You hit the nail on the head. Markets,
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: particularly those sectors, are way ahead of themselves. I wrote
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: a piece way overbought, way overbought. I wrote a piece
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: two days before the election. I said, by infrastructure, by
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: US steel bar by Martin Marietta. US steel in the
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: last four weeks is up seventy and it was up
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: a lot before because of those towiffs that had been
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: previously imposed because of the cheap imports. When you see
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: am of your wise to take some money off the table,
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: I mean it's should There's no technical or fundamental reason
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: to own something in that with that kind of a
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: move in four weeks in my in my opinion, now,
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: I do think that you're right about the infrastructure over
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: this degree of over enthusiasm for the for the space,
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: and we are going to probably see some modulation in
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: that performance and probably a reset lower in the near term,
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: but in the longer term, I do think it's a
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: trend that investors must pay attention to. You know, you
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: started talking about the rotation out of fixing co instruments
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: into equities. How much has that gone on already? I mean,
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: is this is this sort of some a trend that
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: will gain momentum and accelerat Yes, okay, so I uh,
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: let's see November where was the worst month? I mean
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: it was an absolute and you know you you at
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: least you cover it was. Yeah, it was the worst
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: month on record. And depending on benchmark, you had that
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: on a safe get key for for your columns. I
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: think worst month, worst month, yeah, no, of course, yeah, yeah,
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: best worst. So absolutely you were spot on absolutely a
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: blood path. Now will that continue? I don't think to
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: that degree we're not going to see that's sort of
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: dramatic turn in velocity in terms of rotation, but it's
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: a trend um and I do think it's a trend
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: that is going to fuel equity market appreciation because that
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: rotation into equities and out of debt instruments is going
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: to be dramatic. Well, can I just challenge that. One
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: measure that I look at is the earnings yield in
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: the spire and I compare that to uh say, ten
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: year treasury yields, and you can see that that gap
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: the extra yield that stocks are paying above benchmark bonds
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: has narrowed to the lowest since two tent At what
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: point are people going to say, look, sort of looking
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: to stocks as a as a yielding investment doesn't cut
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: it anymore. Maybe I'd be better off than treasure. Okay,
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: great point, But I don't think that that's the way
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: people look at equities. I think the way people look
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: at equities is, hey, there's an opportunity here for price
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: appreciation away from yield, and that expectation is what's driving
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: this investor enthusiasm. And oftentimes enthusiasm is not a wise
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: investment strategy, but you have to be able to identify
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: it to take advantage of it. I'm just looking at
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: things like CD rates, right, I mean, you know, no
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: one ever even talked about CD rates over the last
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: what eight ten years one point eight eight five percent.
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: If you want to get something from a synchrony, that's
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: the former Capital Bank com minimum balance two thousand dollars
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: one point eight five percent got open to account. So
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: you're gonna see more people do that or should they
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: just wait a little bit and see what happens. Don't
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: make any big decisions right now. I think it would
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: be a mistake to make to draw line in the sand.
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: But you are going to see you are going to
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: see people putting money into instruments, even as short lived
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: is one year, because frankly, they're accustomed to something that
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: is significantly lower in yield, and it's abtractive. Even at
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: one point one, it's very very attractive. It's a place
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: to park money until you can guarantee it's guarantee and
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: its guarantee. You know. One thing that surprises me is um, Peter,
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: you not the first person to talk about this rotation
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: out of bonds and its stocks. I don't understand about
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: all the cash people were talking about that was slashing
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: around the portfolios. Why isn't it as that like are
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: you know and and are you seeing people actually just
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: using their cash to be more fully invested in the market.
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: An interesting study was released by csfb UH two days ago.
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: In the study, it was highlighted that the average r
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: I A is UH currently modeling fifty in equities and
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: the balance in debt instruments UM. That is well below
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: the historical norm exactly, and that alone speaks to a
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: shift in the way people are looking at the opportunity
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: in equity markets. And I think that is going to
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: that's gonna turn over time. And it's it's not that
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: there's no room for dead instruments in your portfolio. For
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: heaven's sakes, you have to have them. There's a certainty there,
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: there's a yield there that you can bank on. But
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: I do think that people are going to step one
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: or two three steps outside that that what what they've
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: perceived to be an acceptable norm for risk. Peter Kennedy
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: just quickly, I was looking at the thirty year right
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: now trades at three point oh five percent, the ten
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: year trades at two point three eight. You think short term,
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: let's say you know, next quarter, we're going to see
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: your back up in rates. I actually I do. I
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: think you're right I think we will see you back
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: up in rates. And I think that we've seen such
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: a move in such a short period of time that
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: you know, the reversion to the mean always plays plays
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: a role in whether it's you're talking about debt yields,
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: whether you're talking about equities, it's it's it's whenever you
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: see that that kind of a move, you you've got
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: to see a reversion. But I want to bring in
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: Alberto Gallo, portfolio managing manager and head of macro Strategies
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: at Algebras Investments in London. Alberto, thank you so much
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: for being with us. Good morning, Good morning. So first
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: I want to I want to talk about sort of
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: the movement that we saw yesterday in UH in German
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: bond yields, in particular yields climbing to the highest of
• 15:48
  Speaker 1: the year. UM. Do you think that the ECB will
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: start tapering in the near future and do you think
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: that UH markets are adequately prepared for that. I do
• 15:59
  Speaker 1: say they have discussed tapering. They will extend the maturity
• 16:03
  Speaker 1: of quantity division from March two seventeen to September or
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: perhaps December two thousand seventeen, and they will taper after that,
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: so it's an extension of maturity and then tapering. They
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: cannot talk about it. They are afraid of spook in
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: the market. It's like fight club. You know, you can't
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: talk about fight club, but they have to do it.
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: Data is better, growth is better, inflation across across the
• 16:31
  Speaker 1: eurosone despite the fears about various selections and votes that
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: we see. So they're getting closer to their target. And
• 16:37
  Speaker 1: also remember Mario drugg is going to finish his mandates
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: in January two, so there needs to be a transition
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: from eighty billion euros purchases per month to something a
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: lot to something lower um. I think market expectations are
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: very high on the e c b UM. There's a
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: lot of investors still thinking about Queen infinity, about central
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: banks buying ussets forever um, and everyone is long bonds,
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: so people both bonds for capital gains and equities for
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: for yield and it doesn't work. This trade is over
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: and the rotation is is just starting alright, So that
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: rotation is starting. Alberto Gallo, who's going to buy all
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: the debt of all the banks in Europe? Where is
• 17:19
  Speaker 1: it going to go? And how is the banking system
• 17:21
  Speaker 1: going to survive. Well, let's remember that we still have
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: the liquidity assistance facility of the c B, the t
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: L t r O in jargon, which means ec we
• 17:33
  Speaker 1: can still lend two banks close to the deposit rate
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: which is a very very low rat from near zero basically,
• 17:39
  Speaker 1: I mean banks normally with banks normally with pay, but
• 17:44
  Speaker 1: with the t L t r O they don't pay.
• 17:45
  Speaker 1: Actually they receive some money. Um they get paid for
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: borrowing correct from d CB. So especially if they're lending
• 17:55
  Speaker 1: so effectively. The liquidity across European banks is fine that
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: there is no run on deposits. The problem, however, that
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: we have in some regions is capital, So banking systems
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: that need to um show up capital and consolidate and
• 18:09
  Speaker 1: improve their profitability. Alberto, how are you positioning heading into
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: this stretch of popular discontent? We have the Italian referendum
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: on Sunday night, followed by the Austrian election, followed by
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: uh what promises to be a very interesting French election,
• 18:26
  Speaker 1: just a lot of political uncertainty. How are you positioning? Well?
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: I would say that after the Brexit vote and after
• 18:36
  Speaker 1: after the US elections, which poll agency has got wrong.
• 18:40
  Speaker 1: Every investor has been very heavily hedging for the Italian
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: vote this Sunday and the Austrian vote as well, so
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: it's also at the end of the year, so everyone
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: is very long cash and very very short on on
• 18:54
  Speaker 1: Italy or generally on Europe. So we we have been
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: we have been very light on on Italy until last
• 19:01
  Speaker 1: week where we saw some headlines talking about bank failures
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: and things that were extremely catastrophic, which we're not really
• 19:08
  Speaker 1: painting the true picture. The true picture is lack of capital,
• 19:11
  Speaker 1: is some profitability issues. But actually the vote the Yes
• 19:14
  Speaker 1: novel is very close to fifty fifty and the market
• 19:17
  Speaker 1: is pricing a percent probability of a no. So I
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: think here you're supposed to be a bit more optimistic
• 19:24
  Speaker 1: because if the poll is wrong again and actually you
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: have a yes win for the change in the constitution,
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: this opens up the road to a lot of reforms,
• 19:34
  Speaker 1: to a lot of change which Italian governments weren't weren't
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: able to do over the last thirty years. So we're
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: cauxiously optimistic here against the market that has gone one way.
• 19:45
  Speaker 1: Perish Caffeine Coffee International expand Shin Are you gonna are
• 20:01
  Speaker 1: you gonna find me coffee and give me an option
• 20:03
  Speaker 1: for international expansion? Well, if you happen to be at Starbucks,
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: I mean you might be able to qualify. You know
• 20:10
  Speaker 1: that they have over I think it's over four locations
• 20:13
  Speaker 1: in China, and it's they want to expand even further
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: in Asia. I bet you knew that at anyway, I
• 20:20
  Speaker 1: was going to say the reason I think you know
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: that is because Bloomberg Gatflight Columns. Shelley Banjo is sitting
• 20:25
  Speaker 1: right next to you, and she's here to tell us
• 20:27
  Speaker 1: all about Starbucks, Starbucks whisper our Starbucks Whisper and Howard
• 20:31
  Speaker 1: and Howard Schultz, who is the founder of Starbucks. He
• 20:35
  Speaker 1: is turning over the reins the CEO rains rather to
• 20:38
  Speaker 1: Kevin Johnson. Shelley, thanks for being with us, tell us
• 20:41
  Speaker 1: about this, Thanks so much for having me. Yes, this
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: was big news yesterday. Um, you know this guy is
• 20:48
  Speaker 1: synonymous with Starbucks. He built Starbucks and Howard. Yes, rags
• 20:53
  Speaker 1: really almost a Rags the Richest story. It's an amazing
• 20:56
  Speaker 1: story and and people are right to worry about what's
• 20:59
  Speaker 1: going to happened because we've seen this story before. He
• 21:02
  Speaker 1: left the company between two thousand and two thousand and eight,
• 21:05
  Speaker 1: and it did not do very well. Their sales tank,
• 21:08
  Speaker 1: the stock tanked, everything was kind of a mess. Um
• 21:12
  Speaker 1: went through a couple of CEOs, and during the recession,
• 21:14
  Speaker 1: he said, I'm coming back and I'm going to write
• 21:16
  Speaker 1: it right right these wrongs, and he did, and he
• 21:19
  Speaker 1: turned it around and now it's doing really well. And
• 21:22
  Speaker 1: so people are worried what's going to happen now once
• 21:24
  Speaker 1: once he's gone, But he says that this time is
• 21:27
  Speaker 1: different that previously he left at the beginning of the
• 21:29
  Speaker 1: cataclysmic financial crisis UM, and that now things are different.
• 21:33
  Speaker 1: Let's talk about one thing that's different. Kevin Johnson, who
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: is coming in to fill his shoes. He's a thirty
• 21:40
  Speaker 1: three year veteran of the tech industry, joined the company
• 21:42
  Speaker 1: last year. What are his challenges going forward and what
• 21:45
  Speaker 1: does he bring. Kevin Johnson has a really close relationship
• 21:49
  Speaker 1: with Howard Schultz, so they you know, they've really forged
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: this relationship over the past couple of years, and he's
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: been he's a tenured executive. He was at Microsoft for
• 21:57
  Speaker 1: a really long time. He brought a lot of the
• 21:59
  Speaker 1: tech stuff to Starbucks that has really helped them and
• 22:03
  Speaker 1: kind of been ahead of the curve for Starbucks. So
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: it isn't kind of a knock on Kevin Johnson. It's
• 22:08
  Speaker 1: just well, what's going to happen? Now? You know? Schultz
• 22:11
  Speaker 1: has this kind of gravitas, He's he's looked upon as
• 22:13
  Speaker 1: this genius, and so Kevin Johnson is an operator, and
• 22:17
  Speaker 1: so do you need that kind of genius or do
• 22:20
  Speaker 1: you need the operator at this point in Starbucks? Is
• 22:23
  Speaker 1: you know kind of trajectory. I just want to correct myself.
• 22:25
  Speaker 1: I said that Johnson joined last year. He became the
• 22:27
  Speaker 1: chief operating officer last year, but he joined the Starbucks
• 22:30
  Speaker 1: board in two nine. Correct, Yeah, he's been drinking the
• 22:32
  Speaker 1: coffee for a for a lot longer. Can we just
• 22:36
  Speaker 1: I just want to offer you just a moment or
• 22:38
  Speaker 1: two to talk a little bit about Howard Schultz and
• 22:41
  Speaker 1: his background. Born in Brooklyn, Uh in a public housing Uh. Father,
• 22:47
  Speaker 1: I believe it like when Howard was seven, father broke
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: his ankle. He was a truck driver. There was no
• 22:52
  Speaker 1: health insurance, there was no income. And this has really
• 22:56
  Speaker 1: infused the way Howard Schultz runs Starbucks, whether it's way
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: age increases for employees or his commitment to social issues. Yeah,
• 23:04
  Speaker 1: that's exactly right, and that's why there's a lot of
• 23:06
  Speaker 1: the whole rumor's fury yesterday was oh, he must be
• 23:10
  Speaker 1: going to government then, because he has been so active,
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: um with these social causes. And he even said on
• 23:16
  Speaker 1: the on the call that they had with investors after
• 23:18
  Speaker 1: the announcement that you know, he Shoultz is not leaving.
• 23:22
  Speaker 1: He's still gonna be a chair on the board. He's
• 23:23
  Speaker 1: going to focus on this UM reserve rosteries, UM. Kind
• 23:27
  Speaker 1: of his higher end concept at Starbucks is trying to
• 23:29
  Speaker 1: roll out and focus on Starbucks is social agenda. And
• 23:33
  Speaker 1: he didn't really expand on that, but he said, you
• 23:35
  Speaker 1: know this is these are causes that are still really
• 23:37
  Speaker 1: important to us, and we want someone working on them
• 23:40
  Speaker 1: full time and Howard is going to be that person.
• 23:43
  Speaker 1: UM with Kevin, what could he bring to the table,
• 23:45
  Speaker 1: What kinds of initiatives, what could he push along that
• 23:47
  Speaker 1: would help with Starbucks? Well, the best and most obvious
• 23:50
  Speaker 1: thing is his tech experience, and so that is going
• 23:53
  Speaker 1: to continue to be important for Starbucks. They get a
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: ton of orders, digital orders, you know, getting people through
• 23:58
  Speaker 1: that line even faster to get their coffee. Get their
• 24:01
  Speaker 1: fixed and UM, that's going to continue to be important.
• 24:04
  Speaker 1: Their loyalty program is going to continue to be important.
• 24:06
  Speaker 1: And those are two things that Kevin can really bring
• 24:08
  Speaker 1: to Starbucks. The thing I'm most worried about with Kevin
• 24:12
  Speaker 1: is their food. Starbucks is struggle to be able to
• 24:15
  Speaker 1: really serve food. They're awesome at coffee, but their food
• 24:18
  Speaker 1: has never been really up to part. And so in
• 24:21
  Speaker 1: order to keep growing that, um, in order to keep
• 24:24
  Speaker 1: growing Starbucks, They're going to have to bring on good food.
• 24:27
  Speaker 1: And I'm just not sure that Kevin Johnson has the
• 24:30
  Speaker 1: chops to be able to do that yet, because I'll
• 24:31
  Speaker 1: take innovation in a certain degree of creativity to correct. Yeah, definitely.
• 24:35
  Speaker 1: Shelly Banjo, Bloomberg gad Fly columnist, Thank you so much
• 24:39
  Speaker 1: for joining us. Thank you, Shelly Banjo. Favorite Starbucks is,
• 24:44
  Speaker 1: by the way, stocks down about two and UM, I
• 24:47
  Speaker 1: like the soy misto, which is just a fancy way
• 24:50
  Speaker 1: of saying coffee with hot, warm milk. Nice. That sounds
• 24:55
  Speaker 1: pretty good right about now. Shelly Banjo, Bloomberg gad Fly
• 24:58
  Speaker 1: speaking with myself, Lisa Brown Ways and Pim Fox. This
• 25:01
  Speaker 1: is Bloomberg. Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg pien L Podcast.
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: You can subscribe and listen to interviews at iTunes, SoundCloud,
• 25:14
  Speaker 1: or whatever podcast platform you prefer. I'm pim Fox. I'm
• 25:19
  Speaker 1: out there on Twitter at pim Fox. I'm out there
• 25:22
  Speaker 1: on Twitter at Lisa Abramo. It's one before the podcast.
• 25:25
  Speaker 1: You can always catch us worldwide on Bloomberg Radio