EP 158: Equilibrium or Explosion?
Kip Fotheringham joins the crew to break down a lumber market that feels coiled.
Canadian shipments are down 30% year-over-year. Inventory on the ground is near multi-year lows. Futures are trading at a discount to cash. And dealers are running lean.
So are we stuck in a trading range… or one buying shift away from a $100 move?
In this episode, the guys debate:
Why majors aren’t aggressively EFP’ing
Government “support” vs. subsidy risk in Canada
Southern Pine regional price spreads
What happens if retailers add just 2–3 weeks of inventory
Why breakeven doesn’t matter — return on capital does…
The skinny
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