Latest / Bloomberg Intelligence / Wall Street Bonuses, Baker Hughes CEO on Earnings
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- 0:02Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news.
- 0:09Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live
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- 0:24Speaker 3: Happy Friday, everybody, I'm Alexe alongside Paul Sweeney. This is
- 0:27Speaker 3: Bloomberg Intelligence Radio. We bring you all the top news
- 0:29Speaker 3: in business, economics, and finance through our lens of our
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- 0:34Speaker 3: hundred and thirty industries worldwide.
- 0:37Speaker 4: Every day.
- 0:37Speaker 3: We also take a look at the Bloomberg Big Take story.
- 0:39Speaker 3: It's a deep dive into some of the pressing financial, political,
- 0:43Speaker 3: and economic issues of our time. You can check it
- 0:45Speaker 3: out on the terminal or also Bloomberg dot com slash
- 0:48Speaker 3: Big Take. And today it's about banker bonuses. Wall Street
- 0:52Speaker 3: bonuses often come in the form of restricted stock units,
- 0:55Speaker 3: So how did that actually perform? It's dicey, it's unpredictable.
- 1:00Speaker 3: Do you actually make money off of those things?
- 1:02Speaker 4: Well?
- 1:02Speaker 3: Joining us now is one of the authors of the story.
- 1:04Speaker 3: Laura Noonan, Bloomberg News finance reporter Walkers to your story, Laura.
- 1:09Speaker 5: Thank you.
- 1:10Speaker 6: So the story basically looked at the restricted shares over
- 1:13Speaker 6: a period from the Frantic christ Sinteszan Night, and the
- 1:16Speaker 6: question we wanted to ask is how does the number
- 1:19Speaker 6: on the letter you get on bonus day compare to
- 1:21Speaker 6: how much you actually get by the time those shares best.
- 1:23Speaker 6: So we assume certain things, and what we showed was
- 1:26Speaker 6: that in the case of the US banks, you usually
- 1:29Speaker 6: end up making more, in the case of the European banks,
- 1:33Speaker 6: you usually end up making less. And in some cases
- 1:35Speaker 6: the numbers were quite severe. So there was one case
- 1:38Speaker 6: we looked at where the Bank of America people who
- 1:40Speaker 6: got bonuses in twenty eleven slash twenty twelve, they ended
- 1:44Speaker 6: up if they had sold them as they could over
- 1:47Speaker 6: a three year period, they would have got two hundred
- 1:49Speaker 6: and seventy thousand dollars for every one hundred and for
- 1:51Speaker 6: every one hundred thousand dollars in the letter. So that's
- 1:53Speaker 6: a big upside off the end of the spectrum of
- 1:56Speaker 6: the credit Switez. Bankers who got bonuses towards the end
- 1:58Speaker 6: of credit spesis life would have seen the money effectively
- 2:02Speaker 6: disappear when credits fee is collapsed in twenty twenty three.
- 2:05Speaker 4: Are we see investment banks pay more of the bonus
- 2:08Speaker 4: in stock or RSUs less cash more. Is that a trend.
- 2:13Speaker 6: It's been a trend since the financial crisis, which is
- 2:15Speaker 6: why we started the analysis there. So the idea was
- 2:18Speaker 6: to align the risk taking of the people who are
- 2:21Speaker 6: making bonuses with the longer term fate of the banks that.
- 2:24Speaker 4: They work for.
- 2:25Speaker 6: Within the EU, there are rules about this, so you
- 2:27Speaker 6: have to get a certain percentage of your bonus in
- 2:30Speaker 6: these kind of restricted instruments, and the percentage that you
- 2:33Speaker 6: get is higher depending on how senior you are. So
- 2:36Speaker 6: it's certainly something the banks have been doing for risk management.
- 2:38Speaker 5: They're also doing it in terms of.
- 2:40Speaker 6: Pretention, in terms of if you are a really strong
- 2:43Speaker 6: bank and your share price they expected to appreciate, and
- 2:45Speaker 6: we want people to stay working for you, it makes
- 2:48Speaker 6: sense to give them things which kind of align their
- 2:51Speaker 6: fate with the fate of the bank because it makes
- 2:53Speaker 6: them stay, which is what banks are trying to do,
- 2:55Speaker 6: especially as they face more competition for for staff from
- 2:58Speaker 6: other industries like tes like some of the non listed
- 3:01Speaker 6: banks and the and the private markets industry.
- 3:06Speaker 3: Paul's here shaking his head like it.
- 3:08Speaker 4: I'm just going to keep my mouth shed here because
- 3:10Speaker 4: I think about the Europeans in their pay structure, and
- 3:14Speaker 4: you don't like that.
- 3:15Speaker 2: Ball not a fan.
- 3:16Speaker 4: That's why there's no global investment bank coming out of Europe.
- 3:19Speaker 4: That's why there's no technology coming out of I mean.
- 3:21Speaker 3: It's a fair point, like okay, I mean is a
- 3:25Speaker 3: recovering former m and a media banker. So this is
- 3:28Speaker 3: near and dear.
- 3:30Speaker 6: There are a lot of issues in European investment banks
- 3:32Speaker 6: and we will be telling you more about that. Those
- 3:34Speaker 6: in different There are some unique structural issues around bank pay.
- 3:39Speaker 6: Those do limit their capacity to attract some people. It's
- 3:43Speaker 6: going to be really interesting in the UK market now
- 3:45Speaker 6: because the UK has just ruled off some of those
- 3:49Speaker 6: crisis some of those rules introduced in the EU. The
- 3:51Speaker 6: EUP obviously is outside the EU now they are liberating
- 3:53Speaker 6: things here. It's going to be a really interesting market
- 3:55Speaker 6: to see how people respond in terms of do people
- 3:58Speaker 6: want to work for a Joyty Bank MP Paraba within
- 4:01Speaker 6: the London operators now or would they be even more
- 4:04Speaker 6: likely to go to a Gunman Sachs at JP Morgan
- 4:06Speaker 6: where you can now get really big bonuses.
- 4:09Speaker 3: Can I just ask about the whole credit Sueeze debacle there,
- 4:13Speaker 3: like what happened to all of those bonuses and payouts, etc.
- 4:18Speaker 3: When you take a look at Deutsche Bank and Credit Sweeze.
- 4:22Speaker 6: So Deutsche Bank has just had a very troubled share
- 4:24Speaker 6: price situation. I mean, if you look at the share
- 4:26Speaker 6: of Deutsche since Cintomatic crisis, it has pretty much it
- 4:30Speaker 6: had a very very sharp decline over that period. So
- 4:32Speaker 6: you know, I knew people who had Deutsche bonuses and
- 4:34Speaker 6: they were like, oh, this will be the best trade
- 4:36Speaker 6: I've ever made, because you get a lot of shares
- 4:39Speaker 6: when your share price is low to get you to
- 4:41Speaker 6: that dollar number. And they expected the share price to recover.
- 4:44Speaker 6: The share price did not recover. It fell further and
- 4:47Speaker 6: further and further. So they just had a very tough
- 4:49Speaker 6: time share price wise. Creditsweez was interesting because if you
- 4:52Speaker 6: look back over the analysis, there were some years when
- 4:55Speaker 6: actually Credit sweez stock did really well, and that was
- 4:57Speaker 6: because in the immediate after math of the crisis kind
- 5:01Speaker 6: of ten eleven twelve is actually very strong. Where came
- 5:04Speaker 6: crashing down to earth was in the more recent past
- 5:06Speaker 6: when those shares effectively got zeroed by the collapsash takeover
- 5:10Speaker 6: from Yes, there's a lot of nuance there. What I
- 5:12Speaker 6: should also say is, for this analysis, we looked at
- 5:15Speaker 6: twelve banks, the twelve banks who most commonly give bonuses. However,
- 5:19Speaker 6: we have a tool for the terminal users. You can
- 5:21Speaker 6: go on that you can click on it. You can
- 5:23Speaker 6: enter any listed company in the world. You can enter
- 5:26Speaker 6: any kind of vesting structure. You might have any dates,
- 5:29Speaker 6: and you can see how your life would have been
- 5:31Speaker 6: different if you got your bonus at a different bank,
- 5:34Speaker 6: or if you made different career choices when you were
- 5:36Speaker 6: like twenty five, or you know how your colleagues down
- 5:39Speaker 6: the road have done. So there is a lot of
- 5:40Speaker 6: fun that you can have. If you're into playing with
- 5:42Speaker 6: Excel sheets, you're.
- 5:43Speaker 2: In for a fun weekend.
- 5:44Speaker 4: And I guess, I mean, you have some great stuff
- 5:46Speaker 4: in here about how the best year for bank bonuses
- 5:48Speaker 4: was twenty twenty twelve because I guess, you know, depressed
- 5:51Speaker 4: values and after.
- 5:53Speaker 6: That prices were not good. Yeah, so it's something some
- 5:56Speaker 6: parts of better, kind of counter intuitive. But thinking about
- 5:59Speaker 6: depressed values is they and this kind of goes without saying,
- 6:02Speaker 6: but they have to recover. So I've seen people make
- 6:05Speaker 6: some pretty bad decisions thinking that that, thinking that things
- 6:08Speaker 6: will always rebound to some kind of normal. The one
- 6:11Speaker 6: thing we've learned in European bank since the financial crisis
- 6:13Speaker 6: is like me and reversion hasn't really been a thing
- 6:16Speaker 6: in the way people think it was going to be.
- 6:18Speaker 6: Some business models turned out to be, you know, structurally flowed,
- 6:21Speaker 6: structurally fatally flowed in the case of credit sweet So
- 6:24Speaker 6: you can't always assume that it's going to bounce back,
- 6:27Speaker 6: because I mean, if you talk to the credit feece Banger,
- 6:29Speaker 6: they talk to the Liman bankers who live a different era.
- 6:31Speaker 6: But they also and then I know a few people
- 6:33Speaker 6: who work for both Lehman and Credits Feet and you
- 6:35Speaker 6: know the Times Violin. They're silk white rich guys. However,
- 6:38Speaker 6: they will be much in picture guys in other places.
- 6:41Speaker 3: All Right, Laura, thanks a lot. We're gonna leave it there.
- 6:42Speaker 3: Thank you very much. Lauren and a Bloomberg News finance
- 6:45Speaker 3: reporter joining us on Banker Bonuses.
- 6:49Speaker 2: You were listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch the
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- 6:59Speaker 2: can all so listen live on Amazon Alexa from our
- 7:02Speaker 2: flagship New York station, Just Say Alexa played Bloomberg eleven
- 7:06Speaker 2: thirty one.
- 7:07Speaker 3: Stock on the move to the upside is Baker Hughes.
- 7:10Speaker 3: It is the best performing stock in the energy sector
- 7:13Speaker 3: within the SMP. Baker Hughes is an oil services company.
- 7:16Speaker 3: It has two main lines. One is literally oil services,
- 7:19Speaker 3: so if you're an oil driller, you call Baker to
- 7:21Speaker 3: help you drill the oil. The other is industrial and
- 7:24Speaker 3: energy technology that's much more related to sort of the
- 7:28Speaker 3: future of what the business will be. Encapsulates LNG export facilities,
- 7:32Speaker 3: which they are a huge provider of. And this stock
- 7:35Speaker 3: has car rushed its competition. You look at a comp
- 7:38Speaker 3: chart Baker Hughes versus A, Halliburton and SLB. They've crushed
- 7:42Speaker 3: it over the last year. They reported earnings last night
- 7:44Speaker 3: the beat very high estimates and yet the stock is
- 7:47Speaker 3: still up by about six percent. Were pleased to have
- 7:50Speaker 3: the CEO, President and Chairman, Lorenzo Seminelli joining us. Now, Lorenzo,
- 7:54Speaker 3: good to chat with you. I gave you a nice
- 7:56Speaker 3: set up there. What do you think that you have
- 7:58Speaker 3: if Pears don't.
- 8:03Speaker 5: Say that again, Alex, what do.
- 8:05Speaker 3: You have that your other peers don't in your best estimation?
- 8:10Speaker 7: Well, Alex, firstval it's great to be with you and
- 8:13Speaker 7: very pleased with the results of twenty twenty four.
- 8:15Speaker 5: And I think it.
- 8:17Speaker 7: Really talks to the portfolio and the capabilities of baking US.
- 8:21Speaker 7: And as you mentioned, we have these two segments, one
- 8:25Speaker 7: being oil field services and equipment and then the other
- 8:28Speaker 7: being industrial and energy technology, and that capability of really
- 8:33Speaker 7: being focused on where there's less cyclicality, less volatility. As
- 8:37Speaker 7: you look at oil field services and equipment, we're much
- 8:40Speaker 7: more on the production side, weighted and looking at the
- 8:44Speaker 7: mature asset solutions. And when you look at the industrial
- 8:47Speaker 7: energy technology, really on the liquefaction side, the gas infrastructure
- 8:53Speaker 7: and also new energy and again we exceeded the guidance
- 8:58Speaker 7: for new energy orders take in twenty twenty four, looking
- 9:02Speaker 7: for another robust twenty twenty five. And it really comes
- 9:05Speaker 7: down to the differentiation in the portfolio. And we're really
- 9:09Speaker 7: not just an all field services company. We're an industrial
- 9:13Speaker 7: energy technology company, and you know, we've created a portfolio
- 9:19Speaker 7: that's unique within the space.
- 9:21Speaker 4: All Right, Lorenzos, I've been telling Alex, who is the
- 9:24Speaker 4: true expert here in Bloomberg for energy. I have watched
- 9:27Speaker 4: season one of land Man, so I now consider myself
- 9:29Speaker 4: an oil and gas expert. Just putting that in front
- 9:32Speaker 4: of you there. Love to get your thoughts. Lorenzo on
- 9:35Speaker 4: the implications of this new administration coming up. How much
- 9:39Speaker 4: of a change in policy do you and your peers
- 9:43Speaker 4: expect out of a Trump administration.
- 9:47Speaker 7: You know, we've seen administrations in the past and changes,
- 9:50Speaker 7: and obviously we had Trump administration previously as well. As
- 9:56Speaker 7: we look at the outlook again, we think that an
- 10:00Speaker 7: number of our customers and EMPs are going to continue
- 10:03Speaker 7: to be disciplined, and we're seeing activity levels and production
- 10:08Speaker 7: at least in the US slightly increasing. As we look
- 10:12Speaker 7: at international again we see flatish year over year. But
- 10:17Speaker 7: again I think as we look at the macro side,
- 10:22Speaker 7: it's over the course of the next few years and
- 10:25Speaker 7: the next decade and increasing demand for energy, and that
- 10:28Speaker 7: means it's an all of the above strategy. It's going
- 10:31Speaker 7: to be oil gas, it's going to be more renewables,
- 10:34Speaker 7: and we see a good outlook on the macro side
- 10:37Speaker 7: for Baker Hughes.
- 10:38Speaker 3: In that environment, he does talk about Landman like all
- 10:41Speaker 3: the time. So to break that down a little bit,
- 10:44Speaker 3: I was talking to Mike Worth's CEO of Chevron earlier,
- 10:46Speaker 3: and basically his theme in the Permian is to produce more.
- 10:50Speaker 4: But with less, so less capex.
- 10:52Speaker 3: It feels like the read through of that for the
- 10:54Speaker 3: oil services business wouldn't be great for you guys. Walk
- 10:58Speaker 3: me through what you're seeing from the big oil players.
- 11:02Speaker 7: Again, as I mentioned the big old players, they're going
- 11:05Speaker 7: to take the opportunity of benefiting from the consolidation and
- 11:08Speaker 7: the acreage that they're bringing on.
- 11:11Speaker 5: And what Mike.
- 11:13Speaker 7: Is mentioning is really the aspect of doing more with
- 11:16Speaker 7: what you have. And that's why Baker Hughes is well
- 11:19Speaker 7: suited because we're more.
- 11:20Speaker 5: On the production side. And again, as you.
- 11:23Speaker 7: Look at our portfolio, greater than fifty percent is associated
- 11:27Speaker 7: with the production. That's the electrical submassible pumps, it's the chemicals,
- 11:34Speaker 7: it's the ability to really take more.
- 11:37Speaker 5: Out of the mature assets.
- 11:38Speaker 7: And that's been a big focus of Baker Hughes over
- 11:42Speaker 7: the course of the last few years. And so as
- 11:44Speaker 7: the intensity continues to increase on doing more with less,
- 11:49Speaker 7: it actually serves the aspect of our production side and
- 11:52Speaker 7: focus that we have on the mature assets.
- 11:55Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm glad you brought that up, because that's kind
- 11:56Speaker 3: of what my word was saying too, that like the
- 11:59Speaker 3: technology just gets so much better that you can actually
- 12:01Speaker 3: continue to get more oil, lower the cycle costs, and
- 12:05Speaker 3: lower the cycle time. Switching to your IET business, so
- 12:09Speaker 3: industrials and energy, a technology business, that's where you have
- 12:14Speaker 3: sort of your LNG export facilities, it is, that's where
- 12:18Speaker 3: the growth is going to come from. Your numbers for
- 12:20Speaker 3: the first quarter and for all of this year are
- 12:22Speaker 3: just trouncing estimates. Who is your big customer for this.
- 12:27Speaker 7: Well, we've got the large LNG players obviously within North America,
- 12:32Speaker 7: and we're looking forward to a number of FIDS taking
- 12:35Speaker 7: place in twenty twenty five. Overall globally for LNG again,
- 12:40Speaker 7: we see one hundred mtpa of new projects between twenty
- 12:45Speaker 7: four and twenty.
- 12:46Speaker 5: Six over the course of this year.
- 12:49Speaker 7: You know, there's still about eighty mtpa to go internationally
- 12:53Speaker 7: as well as also in the US.
- 12:55Speaker 5: But it's not just the LNG.
- 12:57Speaker 7: It's you know, when you look at gas infrastructure and
- 13:00Speaker 7: the associated infrastructure around pipelines being required compression to be
- 13:05Speaker 7: able to move the molecule, the LNG players Venture Global
- 13:09Speaker 7: which we announced yesterday as well. You've got Shineer, but
- 13:13Speaker 7: you've got the majors when you think of Katar Gas
- 13:18Speaker 7: as well as Exon Mobile with the projects.
- 13:21Speaker 5: That they have.
- 13:21Speaker 7: So we play across the portfolio with these key customers.
- 13:26Speaker 5: But it's not just LNG.
- 13:27Speaker 7: You know, seventy percent of the addressable market opportunity for
- 13:31Speaker 7: us in IT over the course of the next few
- 13:33Speaker 7: years is outside of LNG, and that's one hundred and
- 13:38Speaker 7: forty billion dollar opportunity.
- 13:40Speaker 3: Where is it outside of LNG And do you anticipate
- 13:43Speaker 3: any acquisitions to even beat that up even more?
- 13:47Speaker 7: You know, we're benefiting from the fact that our equipment
- 13:50Speaker 7: can be utilized in multiple end applications. So when you
- 13:54Speaker 7: go onshore offshore production, when you look at FPSOs and
- 13:59Speaker 7: we consistent theme of seven to nine FPSOs on an
- 14:03Speaker 7: annual basis. When you look at pipeline infrastructure, you look
- 14:07Speaker 7: at downstream.
- 14:08Speaker 5: You need pumps, you need valves, you.
- 14:10Speaker 7: Need reciprocating compressors, you need turbines, and increasingly behind the
- 14:16Speaker 7: meta solutions as well, distributed power generation and we've got
- 14:21Speaker 7: a line of industrial gas turbans obviously below one hundred
- 14:24Speaker 7: and fifty megawat and when you think of the data
- 14:27Speaker 7: center growth that's going to be taking place, it's a
- 14:30Speaker 7: large opportunity for us as we go forward.
- 14:32Speaker 3: Does that mean that, Lorenzo, you're going to be able
- 14:34Speaker 3: to play in the AI data center rush?
- 14:38Speaker 7: We already are playing in the aspect of providing behind
- 14:42Speaker 7: the meta solutions and also distributed power generation with our
- 14:47Speaker 7: Nova LT line and as we're working with a number
- 14:50Speaker 7: of hyperscalers and AI is definitely a theme that we
- 14:55Speaker 7: see growing and the need for data centers growing, and
- 14:59Speaker 7: they're going to need short solutions forgetting.
- 15:01Speaker 3: The power Before I let you go, because you know
- 15:03Speaker 3: I'm going to ask it. You got those two huge
- 15:05Speaker 3: business lines. Any any theories or feelings about a spin off.
- 15:10Speaker 7: There is a tremendous amount of synergies between the two.
- 15:13Speaker 7: And what's great about Baker Hughes is that we can
- 15:17Speaker 7: navigate with less cyclicality, less volatility because it doesn't matter
- 15:22Speaker 7: on the pace of the transition. We actually match with
- 15:26Speaker 7: the capabilities of oil field services and equipment and the
- 15:29Speaker 7: industrial energy technology, and we actually link the value chain together.
- 15:34Speaker 7: And as you think of subsurface knowledge with then being
- 15:37Speaker 7: able to move the molecule and do something with the
- 15:40Speaker 7: molecule from a compression standpoint, liquefaction or moving it elsewhere.
- 15:46Speaker 7: The two segments were hand in hand together, so we
- 15:49Speaker 7: liked the portfolio of the way that is.
- 15:51Speaker 3: I knew you were going to say that one, Lorenzo.
- 15:52Speaker 4: It's great to chat with you.
- 15:53Speaker 3: I love catching up with you. Lorenzo Saminelli, President, chairman
- 15:56Speaker 3: and CEO of Baker Hughes. That' stock up over a
- 15:59Speaker 3: six percent And today.
- 16:02Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live
- 16:06Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto
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- 16:13Speaker 1: get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.
- 16:17Speaker 4: News came out today that surprised me, talking about the
- 16:21Speaker 4: US Justice Department blocking HPE's acquisition of Juniper Networks. What
- 16:27Speaker 4: happened to the animal spirits of a Republican white House,
- 16:30Speaker 4: Republican Congress pulling back on regulation. This one kind of
- 16:33Speaker 4: threw me for a curve. So we went to the
- 16:35Speaker 4: expert u Jinhoe Senior technolog channels from Bloomberg Intelligence. Wooje
- 16:39Speaker 4: was this expected, what's going on here.
- 16:42Speaker 8: Hey, Paul, it wasn't expected. I think there were some
- 16:45Speaker 8: rumblings going on earlier in the week that the DJ
- 16:48Speaker 8: made blocked the deal for anti competitive reasons, and then
- 16:52Speaker 8: when the deal was close, close to the finish line,
- 16:56Speaker 8: Woomer was next week a DJ decided to step in.
- 16:59Speaker 8: What's the problem, Well, it's all about Wi Fi and
- 17:04Speaker 8: it's clear that HPE can't live without its Wi Fi either.
- 17:09Speaker 8: You know, the combination of HPE and Juniper would create
- 17:12Speaker 8: twenty percent Wi Fi market share in the United States
- 17:15Speaker 8: in the North America, and if you combine that with Cisco,
- 17:20Speaker 8: it would have over seventy percent. So the DOJ is
- 17:23Speaker 8: essentially saying that it would create an anti competitive environment
- 17:26Speaker 8: in the wireless landspace.
- 17:28Speaker 4: Both stocks are kind of flat to a little bit
- 17:31Speaker 4: up here today. So what's the market telling us here, Well.
- 17:36Speaker 8: The market is telling us for a Juniper standpoint, there
- 17:40Speaker 8: might be a we're getting closer to evaluation floor if
- 17:44Speaker 8: HPE needs to walk away. What we did right this
- 17:47Speaker 8: morning was that we think that there is a nine
- 17:49Speaker 8: to ten billion dollar valuation on a standalone Juniper. That
- 17:53Speaker 8: gets us to about a twenty eight to thirty two
- 17:57Speaker 8: dollars share price. It slight discount where it's trading right now.
- 18:00Speaker 8: Now from an HPE standpoint, you know, it's something a
- 18:04Speaker 8: different signal. One of the reasons why they wanted to
- 18:07Speaker 8: acquire Juniper as a whole is for a margin perspective.
- 18:11Speaker 8: So the stock is down about ten percent and some
- 18:13Speaker 8: of the margin decretion related Juniper might be falling off.
- 18:17Speaker 4: What could they do to save this deal?
- 18:19Speaker 3: Is there anything that they could offer?
- 18:22Speaker 8: Yeah, so look at the end of the day, there's
- 18:25Speaker 8: one particular product that Juniper has called missed and that
- 18:31Speaker 8: was automated the Wi Fi functionality as well as delivered
- 18:37Speaker 8: some AI functionality. You know, HP doesn't want to walk
- 18:41Speaker 8: away from that, but if they walk away from that
- 18:43Speaker 8: portion of the deal, that could possibly preserve the deal.
- 18:47Speaker 8: But you know, with Antonio trying to do to keep
- 18:51Speaker 8: to go through with the lawsuit, they really want Missed
- 18:55Speaker 8: and quite frankly, I think it's one of the crown
- 18:57Speaker 8: jewels of the deal.
- 18:58Speaker 4: So which I know you probably speak to Jenrie at
- 19:01Speaker 4: Bloomberg Intelligence. She does all this anti trust stuff. How
- 19:04Speaker 4: are you guys thinking about this? What are you telling
- 19:06Speaker 4: your clients? Is it still going to get done? Is
- 19:07Speaker 4: it not gonna get done? Are they going to walk away?
- 19:09Speaker 4: What do you think is gonna happen?
- 19:11Speaker 8: Yeah, you know, I've been going back and forth with
- 19:14Speaker 8: with Jen, and you know what Jen is telling us
- 19:17Speaker 8: as well as Bloomberg Bloomberg clients is that the DJ
- 19:21Speaker 8: actually may have a strong case. Quite quite frankly, I
- 19:25Speaker 8: think it's kind of a bunk from from a DJ standpoint.
- 19:29Speaker 8: You know, Hpe is getting penalized for Cisco having fifty
- 19:32Speaker 8: percent market share, right and one of the arguments that
- 19:36Speaker 8: the DJ is making is that there might be an
- 19:40Speaker 8: increase in price. But you know, the historical trend has
- 19:43Speaker 8: been Hpe actually has been a price leader in terms
- 19:47Speaker 8: of having lower price for their wireless land products versus
- 19:50Speaker 8: where Cisco is a price you know, is a price
- 19:54Speaker 8: leader where they have the highest price. So, you know,
- 19:58Speaker 8: I don't know where it'll be. But if uh, Jens
- 20:01Speaker 8: generally says that DJ has a case, HPE may need
- 20:05Speaker 8: to find alternatives.
- 20:06Speaker 3: So let's pretend that deodee h does have a case.
- 20:09Speaker 3: What's a plan B or I guess what does Juniper
- 20:11Speaker 3: and HPE look without a deal?
- 20:14Speaker 4: Yeah?
- 20:14Speaker 8: So, uh, the way I look at it right now
- 20:17Speaker 8: is that the there actually is still a lot of synergies.
- 20:20Speaker 8: You know, Juniper has a data center networking UH data
- 20:24Speaker 8: center uh A as well as cloud routing.
- 20:27Speaker 5: UH.
- 20:27Speaker 8: These are two areas that HPE does not have, and
- 20:30Speaker 8: it actually would fit well UH with HPE's portfolio. From
- 20:34Speaker 8: a valuation standpoint, you know, we think that UH the
- 20:37Speaker 8: standalone missed piece would be about two point seven to
- 20:41Speaker 8: three point five billion dollars if you back that out
- 20:45Speaker 8: of the original UH fourteen billion dollar price, we're talking
- 20:48Speaker 8: about a ten two eleven billion dollar deal. UH, Juniper
- 20:53Speaker 8: valuation X missed. So you know it it it'll still
- 20:57Speaker 8: work out, and and there are still UH areas of synergies,
- 21:01Speaker 8: but you are missing out about a billion plus in
- 21:04Speaker 8: revenue if you carve out missed.
- 21:07Speaker 4: Which about thirty seconds left. What's your favorite name here
- 21:10Speaker 4: in your space these days?
- 21:12Speaker 8: Ironically, it's HPA Okay, and the quick AI. It's the
- 21:18Speaker 8: AI story. It's the I think they're going to start
- 21:20Speaker 8: gaining some AI sent them in the quarter.
- 21:22Speaker 4: All right, great stuff with Jinho Senior Technology. Channleal for
- 21:25Speaker 4: Bloomberg Intelligence joining us via the Zoom from Princeton, New Jersey.
- 21:30Speaker 4: Appreciate that so again, Hpe, Juniper do oj blocking kind
- 21:36Speaker 4: of surprised. I think a lot of us who were
- 21:38Speaker 4: expecting these animal spirits from a regulatory standpoint to take
- 21:42Speaker 4: over and be kind of the wild West out there
- 21:44Speaker 4: for M and A.
- 21:44Speaker 6: But MAK you not.
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