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GM Slashes Guidance, Kohl’s Fires CEO · Bloomberg Intelligence

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Speaker 2: All right, So two days later, we finally get GM's
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Speaker 2: conference call slashing guidance with up to five billion dollar
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Speaker 2: hit from taruffs. Joining US now David Well to Bloomberg
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Speaker 2: Detroit Bureau chief.
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Speaker 1: David.
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Speaker 2: I thought that these offsets that were announced on Monday
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Speaker 2: or Tuesday, I forget, my time has no meaning, were
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Speaker 2: supposed to help this part from the administration.
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Speaker 3: They did. I mean, some analysts had they hit to
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Speaker 3: General Motors from tariffs being as high as ten billion dollars. Wow,
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Speaker 3: so it did help some. You still have a twenty
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Speaker 3: five percent tariff on imported vehicle. This does help offset
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Speaker 3: some of the parts tariffs. And I think what GM's
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Speaker 3: hoping for here is that eventually the Trump administration gets
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Speaker 3: trade deals with South Korea for example, and some something
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Speaker 3: new with USMCA, because that's where GM's really taking a
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Speaker 3: big hit. Here are those countries in terms of where
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Speaker 3: they get imported vehicles from, and so it's four to
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Speaker 3: five billion dollars. Two billion of that is from the
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Speaker 3: vehicles they important, the rest is parts. So if the
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Speaker 3: automotisy wants to escape heavy hit from tariffs, there's still
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Speaker 3: a lot more to be done in terms of either
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Speaker 3: resourcing parts or getting some new trade deals.
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Speaker 4: So, David, is the expectation this is kind of a
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Speaker 4: worst case scenario, or this is a company positioning that as, hey,
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Speaker 4: this is kind of what we know when this is
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Speaker 4: kind of our best guess.
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Speaker 3: It's what they know based on the structure of the
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Speaker 3: tariffs right now. So let's say next week the Trump
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Speaker 3: administration cut a deal to lower tariffs with South Korea.
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Speaker 3: GM gets a couple hundred thousand vehicles, all entry level
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Speaker 3: models from its factories in Korea. That would lower this burden.
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Speaker 3: If they got something that would reduce the tariffs on
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Speaker 3: the non US parts in vehicles. GM makes some Canada
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Speaker 3: and Mexico that would also give them some relief. But
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Speaker 3: right now those are the so called Ventanyl tariffs with
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Speaker 3: Canada and Mexico. Those are still hanging out there. Those
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Speaker 3: are still in force here, So they would need something
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Speaker 3: that would either lower that or get rid of those
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Speaker 3: to really get this burden down unless they start relocating
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Speaker 3: vehicles and doing things like that.
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Speaker 4: David earlier the Wall Street Journal reporting that the board
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Speaker 4: at Tesla may have started efforts to take a look
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Speaker 4: at a search for a new chief executive officer to
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Speaker 4: succeed Elon Musk. What's your take on.
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Speaker 3: That big company denied it about these things when there's
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Speaker 3: there's a story written with conviction, uh, and then a
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Speaker 3: denial with conviction. You know, you do wonder if maybe
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Speaker 3: some people on the board started talking to other executives
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Speaker 3: or executive search firms out there to get some ideas.
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Speaker 3: But it wasn't maybe an official board search. That's me speculating,
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Speaker 3: But look, Elon Musk has a lot of interest here
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Speaker 3: and this has always been an issue with Tesla's shareholders.
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Speaker 3: And this is well before he was in the Trump
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Speaker 3: administration and politically active with Doge. He had the boring
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Speaker 3: company of course has SpaceX. Then he got Twitter now
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Speaker 3: X and he's got Tesla, and then you add him
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Speaker 3: to a big government role, and this is somebody who
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Speaker 3: has a lot of different things going on. And when
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Speaker 3: Tesla starts to struggle shareholders and the board has to
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Speaker 3: do it's fiduciary duty. If shareholders are asking questions, maybe
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Speaker 3: there's maybe they're asking questions about when this guy is
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Speaker 3: going to come back in the chair, and if he's not,
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Speaker 3: then they need someone who's going to really take a
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Speaker 3: look at getting their sales turned around.
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Speaker 2: If Elon Musk goes back, as it looks like he
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Speaker 2: will to Tesla, does all the problem just go away?
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Speaker 5: Now?
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Speaker 3: It doesn't mean Tesla's got some real issues here. The
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Speaker 3: product line is very stale, right. Most of these vehicles,
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Speaker 3: the model esc goes back twelve years and the other
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Speaker 3: vehicles in the lineup, with the exception of cyber truck,
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Speaker 3: all kind of carry the same basic styling on the exterior, right,
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Speaker 3: So nothing looks fresh. The cyber truck is obviously very
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Speaker 3: fresh and different, but it's a niche product. It's an
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Speaker 3: expensive pickup truck that a lot of people think is
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Speaker 3: pretty weird looking. So this is a company with stale product.
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Speaker 3: A lot of new competition from the Korean automakers in
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Speaker 3: the US from General motors, heavy competition in China. European automakers,
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Speaker 3: especially on the high end, have a lot of new
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Speaker 3: EV's in Europe, so they don't have an Olagaboli like
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Speaker 3: they did five years ago, and they just haven't freshened
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Speaker 3: up the product line. And then there's there's the AI
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Speaker 3: and the autonomy UH strategy of Tesla's. I think that's
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Speaker 3: going to take a while. It took Waynwell a very
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Speaker 3: long time of testing vehicles on public roads to actually
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Speaker 3: launch a service. Tesla hasn't done any of that yet.
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Speaker 3: So you're looking at turning around a product line that's
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Speaker 3: pretty stale in the face of tough competition, and you're
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Speaker 3: looking at going from you know, an announcement last year
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Speaker 3: on autonomous vehicles to robotaxis on the road, which took
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Speaker 3: Waymewell about at least a decade. These are things that
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Speaker 3: that are difficult to do, and you know, getting an
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Speaker 3: active CEO back in the chair helps, but it's still
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Speaker 3: it's still a lot of heavy lifting to get those
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Speaker 3: initiatives going.
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Speaker 4: All right, David, thank you so much. Appreciate a lot
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Speaker 4: going on in the world of the automobile. David Walsh,
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Speaker 4: Bloomberg Detroit, a bureau chief.
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Speaker 2: All right, let's get more on Cole's here. That stock
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Speaker 2: readjusting after we saw the CEO being ousted from inappropriate
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Speaker 2: behavior and a probe that uncovers personal ties to the vendor.
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Speaker 2: Yet but overall, like the stock's not done well, as
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Speaker 2: Nora was saying, Mary Ross Gilbert s Bloomberg Intelligence senior
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Speaker 2: equity analyst who covers retail for us. Hey, Mary, if
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Speaker 2: we just take out this ten minute pop, ten minute,
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Speaker 2: ten percent pop on the CEO ouster, how is Coles
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Speaker 2: actually doing?
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Speaker 6: So that's a good question, Alex, So really, what's happening here? Yes,
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Speaker 6: we had the news that the CEO was ousted, but
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Speaker 6: that that's a big It's big news, right because now
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Speaker 6: we have Michael Bender stepping in as CEO, and he's
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Speaker 6: the fourth and under three years. But let's give you
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Speaker 6: a little bit of a backdrop since twenty twenty one,
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Speaker 6: when the company added so far Warris shops to their stores.
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Speaker 6: Their revenues have fallen two point two billion, but in
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Speaker 6: the meantime, so Fura added one point eight billion, So
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Speaker 6: that means that their revenues are down almost five billion
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Speaker 6: away from Beauty, So that kind of gives you the
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Speaker 6: backdrop of what's happening operationally here and with these different CEOs,
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Speaker 6: nobody has seemed to find the formula of how to
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Speaker 6: get back to growth. The reason why the stock has
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Speaker 6: popped today is really because they came out with their
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Speaker 6: first quarter preliminary figures showing that their comp sales were
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Speaker 6: down four to four point three percent, when the company
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Speaker 6: was guiding down six percent and consensus was at down
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Speaker 6: six point four percent, and earnings were even higher. So
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Speaker 6: what I mean by higher is from an operating income perspective,
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Speaker 6: consensus was at six million, and they're guiding to, you know,
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Speaker 6: somewhere around forty million, So that's much better. And so
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Speaker 6: from an EPs perspective, the loss is going to be
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Speaker 6: about half of what analysts expected, and that's really the
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Speaker 6: pop and the good news here is that the company
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Speaker 6: is rich in real estate, and so if you look
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Speaker 6: at the value potential value of the real estate holdings,
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Speaker 6: which could be nearly six billion, And if you look
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Speaker 6: at their stock and where it's trading and how it's
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Speaker 6: valuing the business, that's under five billion. So that kind
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Speaker 6: of gives you, I sort of a framework.
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Speaker 4: When you start going to the value of the real estate,
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Speaker 4: then you know the business. It's never a good sign trouble.
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Speaker 4: We did that with Macy's and the value of their
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Speaker 4: air rights in Manhattan. That's not good. So, Mary, what
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Speaker 4: is Cole saying? What are some of the retailers that
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Speaker 4: you cover. What are they saying about tariffs, their ability
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Speaker 4: to manage terrorsts, how much they will take in their
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Speaker 4: profit margin versus how much they'll try to pass along
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Speaker 4: to consumers.
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Speaker 6: Paul, You're right, tariffs is really a big issue, and
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Speaker 6: there was no commentary regarding that, neither in this call
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Speaker 6: and neither in their.
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Speaker 5: Fourth quarter call.
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Speaker 6: But we do know that roughly thirty over thirty percent
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Speaker 6: of their revenues they directly import. So there is going
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Speaker 6: to be a hit here or some sort of exposure.
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Speaker 6: And we're still early in the earnings for the first quarter,
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Speaker 6: because that's where we're going to really get an update.
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Speaker 6: Because when these companies reported their fourth quarter earnings. We
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Speaker 6: were talking about tariffs in that sort of twenty percent
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Speaker 6: range and now we're at one forty five for China.
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Speaker 6: So yeah, so we're going to learn more obviously when
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Speaker 6: we get the call, but for now there's not a
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Speaker 6: lot of disclosure around it, but we do know there
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Speaker 6: is an impact.
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Speaker 4: All right, Mary, thank you so much. We always appreciate
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Speaker 4: getting your thoughts on the global retailers here, Mary Ross,
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Speaker 4: Gilbert Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Equdannilysty covers the retail space.
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Speaker 4: One of the big stories here today from an earning's
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Speaker 4: perspective is Facebook. Some of the kids call it meta
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Speaker 4: metaight stocks up six percent here today on some pretty
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Speaker 4: solid numbers. And you want to talk about this company,
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Speaker 4: There's really only a couple of folks you want to
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Speaker 4: talk to, and one of them is David Kirkpatrick, founder
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Speaker 4: of Techomanie in New York, and of course he is
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Speaker 4: the author of what I think remains the definitive book
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Speaker 4: about Facebook in the early days of Facebook. It's called
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Speaker 4: The Facebook Effect. It's a great book, highly recommended. Hey David,
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Speaker 4: what do you make of the numbers coming out of
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Speaker 4: Meta these days?
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Speaker 5: Well, thanks, Paul, thanks for your nice comments.
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Speaker 7: Well, Meta really is the kind of Bellweather I think
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Speaker 7: for what's happening with the digital economy, and their numbers
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Speaker 7: were quite surprisingly good, almost spectacular, you might say.
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Speaker 5: I mean, they've been delivering very steadily for a long time.
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Speaker 7: But I think the most important thing that their numbers indicated,
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Speaker 7: in the comments that Zuckerberg made yesterday, indicated are that,
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Speaker 7: you know, this very crazy, unpredictable economic environment we're in
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Speaker 7: right now, which you were just discussing regarding retail, is
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Speaker 7: not likely.
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Speaker 5: To affect these companies as much as some feared, at
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Speaker 5: least in the near term. And that's really good news.
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Speaker 7: There's a whole lot about AI and other stuff that
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Speaker 7: we learned about what they're doing that was quite spectacular also.
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Speaker 2: Yeah, so let's get to that. So, as you mentioned,
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Speaker 2: the advertising business, which is ninety eight percent of the
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Speaker 2: company's revenue, is continued to grow.
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Speaker 8: So check that box.
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Speaker 2: Let's get to the AI because they unveiled a new
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Speaker 2: standalone AI app called Meta AI. What is that? What's
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Speaker 2: it going to do for me?
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Speaker 5: Well, thanks, Alex Meda.
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Speaker 7: You know, Meta is one of the top players in AI,
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Speaker 7: there's no question.
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Speaker 5: And they are spending an extraordinary amount on this.
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Speaker 7: I mean they up their capital expenditure estimate to up
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Speaker 7: to seventy two billion from a high of sixty five billion,
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Speaker 7: and that's like a huge percentage above last year which
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Speaker 7: was under forty billion. So they're really really ranking really
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Speaker 7: hard on data center investment and AAR. And what they
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Speaker 7: want to do is they want to compete head to
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Speaker 7: head with chat, GPT and all the other claud et cetera,
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Speaker 7: all the other AIS that are directed particularly at consumers.
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Speaker 7: And they have a unique advantage in doing that because
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Speaker 7: they have this extraordinary, unique trove of data about all
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Speaker 7: of us that they have been accumulating for decades and
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Speaker 7: they can use that in the training of the AI
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Speaker 7: to customize and personalize the results they give to people
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Speaker 7: in a way that could be a major competitive differentiator
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Speaker 7: down the road. And of course they'll use it in
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Speaker 7: all the normal ways, you know, they bring it into.
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Speaker 5: A WhatsApp, Chat, et cetera.
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Speaker 7: But they I think are extremely well positioned to become
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Speaker 7: a very very major force in especially consumer AI.
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Speaker 4: And Alexander Cockter parties. People often come up to me
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Speaker 4: and say, hey, Paul, give me an example of AI.
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Speaker 4: An example I give is just what David explained to you.
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Speaker 4: So long these advertising companies like Google and Facebook, they
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Speaker 4: can really get to know who the consumer is better
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Speaker 4: and better and better and then charge more for the ads.
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Speaker 8: I mean, and that's what kind of what I think, right.
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Speaker 7: Well, that's true too, yeah, I mean, they're customizing the
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Speaker 7: ads using AI.
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Speaker 5: That's the thing I didn't even mention. I'm talking about the.
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Speaker 7: Results before, but the ads themselves will be far more
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Speaker 7: accurately targeted.
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Speaker 5: And they're already doing that tremendously often.
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Speaker 2: And isn't that just like free training because you have
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Speaker 2: all the input from Instagram and threads and Facebook and
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Speaker 2: all that.
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Speaker 7: Absolutely, they have the best train one of the best
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Speaker 7: training maybe the best training purpose for consumer.
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Speaker 5: AI that anybody has.
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Speaker 7: I mean, this is the thing that has differentiated Facebook
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Speaker 7: and Meta from the beginning was the depth and volume
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Speaker 7: of their data about individuals. It continues to get more
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Speaker 7: and more rich and they're figuring out new ways to
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Speaker 7: mine it in the age of AI, and that is
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Speaker 7: going to be a huge advantage.
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Speaker 4: Hey, Dave, you look at this stock chart. Since it's IPO,
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Speaker 4: the only thing that's ever derailed this stock has been
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Speaker 4: the metaverse. What's the latest on that whole thing? How
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Speaker 4: are you positioning it?
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Speaker 7: Well, they don't talk about it nearly as much as
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Speaker 7: they did, but you know, I think what they're finding
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Speaker 7: is that there may be an overlap between the metaverse
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Speaker 7: and AI. And you know, they're they're one of the
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Speaker 7: things that I'd say they got into because of their
14:24
Speaker 7: metaverse obsession is hardware, and they are now saying that
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Speaker 7: their hardware business, their ray Ban AI glasses, their Quest
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Speaker 7: gaming and other virtual reality headsets, those are going to
14:37
Speaker 7: be an incredible entree into the world of AI. And
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Speaker 7: I think what we'll see is that they dovetail their
14:44
Speaker 7: work in metaverse in immersive content.
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Speaker 5: With their work in AI. I don't think we can
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Speaker 5: exactly predict how that's going to.
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Speaker 7: Happen, but certainly, you know, glasses that sort of look
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Speaker 7: at the world around you and make give you answers
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Speaker 7: and information about everything you see. That's something we can
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Speaker 7: all use, and it's starting to happen, and they would
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Speaker 7: not be in that position had they not made that many,
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Speaker 7: many tens of billions dollar investment in Metaverse.
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Speaker 5: Now was that a good investment? I don't know. I
15:15
Speaker 5: don't think Zuckerberg.
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Speaker 7: Would today say that metaverse is their future the way
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Speaker 7: he did not very long real clearly AI is the future,
15:22
Speaker 7: but there will be an.
15:23
Speaker 2: Overlat Just some breaking news here for you. Apparently the
15:27
Speaker 2: US is now weighing easing Navidia Chip curbs on the UAE.
15:31
Speaker 2: This comes as Trump is planning a visit to the region.
15:34
Speaker 2: Apparently it's his first overseas trip aside from going to
15:37
Speaker 2: the Pope s funeral, so that is definitely quite interesting.
15:40
Speaker 2: In Vidia and other tech companies have been pushing for
15:42
Speaker 2: this us A rule change, and Trump said President Trump
15:46
Speaker 2: sad to visit the UAE on a golf trip coming
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Speaker 2: later this month. All right, David, we're gonna leave it there.
15:52
Speaker 2: David Kirkpatrick joining us one of the best. He literally
15:55
Speaker 2: wrote the book on Facebook, founder of Teconomy, helping us
15:58
Speaker 2: to break through meta earnings. Here's my question. Oh well,
16:02
Speaker 2: went away, look at that question. Oh video and video
16:04
Speaker 2: got a celebrating yesterday from Seagate. Did you see that?
16:06
Speaker 4: I did not see that.
16:07
Speaker 2: Say AI is priced in and their customers are going
16:10
Speaker 2: to start making their own AI check.
16:11
Speaker 4: Interesting. The stocks up five percent today, so a good
16:15
Speaker 4: move here, and again seems like when you think about
16:17
Speaker 4: these TIFFs, I think what we learned from the first
16:20
Speaker 4: Trump presidency to now is a very fluid situation. There's
16:23
Speaker 4: an announcement, then there's some negotiation, then there's some walk back,
16:27
Speaker 4: there's some change, and you're not really sure where you're
16:29
Speaker 4: going to end up. I just go back and look
16:31
Speaker 4: at kind of how everybody behaved back in the first
16:33
Speaker 4: Trump administration. Stock market did okay? I mean, it's just everything.
16:37
Speaker 5: It just relaxs.
16:38
Speaker 2: Really with the UA is not China, I don't know.
16:41
Speaker 4: I would suggest maybe those conversations are ongoing and we'll see,
16:45
Speaker 4: but it gives us something to talk about.
16:49
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live
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Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple, Cocklay and Android
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Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever
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Speaker 1: you get your pod, or watch us live on YouTube.
17:03
Speaker 4: Let's check in with the professional here, Marsha McGregor, head
17:05
Speaker 4: of Portfolio Strategy, where the CIO at Meryl and Bank
17:09
Speaker 4: of America Private Bank. I like keeping the Meryl name
17:14
Speaker 4: because the Meryl names wanted the great names on the
17:18
Speaker 4: makes a title really long. But I would have kept
17:20
Speaker 4: Marylyn the name. I worked at Maryland, so the Thundering
17:23
Speaker 4: heard all that kind of stuff. I think when I
17:25
Speaker 4: worked at Meryl's a biker, I felt like we could
17:26
Speaker 4: get any deal. I don't care who I was competing against.
17:29
Speaker 4: I felt like we could beat them because that's how
17:32
Speaker 4: good I thought the Meryl folks were. So Marshie, thanks
17:34
Speaker 4: so much for joining us here. Boy volatility, I mean,
17:38
Speaker 4: if you like it, this is your kind of market.
17:40
Speaker 4: I guess what kind of conversations are you having with
17:42
Speaker 4: your clients these days?
17:44
Speaker 8: Yeah, I mean we're trying to help our clients kind
17:47
Speaker 8: of navigate through what I think of almost as this
17:49
Speaker 8: dense fog of uncertainty of course, on the policy front,
17:53
Speaker 8: on the macro front, and really trying to get our
17:55
Speaker 8: clients to take a step back understand that being really
17:59
Speaker 8: well to versified, being really disciplined in a market that
18:03
Speaker 8: can be can probably continue.
18:05
Speaker 5: To feel choppy.
18:06
Speaker 8: From here is the most important thing we can do
18:09
Speaker 8: with investors. So I say, like, stay diversified, stay invested,
18:12
Speaker 8: really stick to our knitting here. This fog will lift
18:15
Speaker 8: and we'll be able to see through to the other side.
18:18
Speaker 2: When you say diversify, everyone says that what does diversify
18:21
Speaker 2: mean to you over there at Bank of America, Meryl.
18:25
Speaker 8: Yeah, when I think about our portfolio positioning right now,
18:28
Speaker 8: we do have a preference for equities over fixed income,
18:31
Speaker 8: and its global equities, so we have a pretty significant
18:34
Speaker 8: strategic weighting both to international developed equities and emerging markets.
18:39
Speaker 8: And then on the fixed income side, we're actually not
18:42
Speaker 8: taking huge positions on the fixed income side. We like
18:45
Speaker 8: to use fixed income as a diversifier, kind of as
18:48
Speaker 8: that ballast of the portfolio. And then, of course, for
18:50
Speaker 8: our clients that are qualified investors, alternative investments makes a
18:56
Speaker 8: lot of sense, private markets makes a lot of sense
18:58
Speaker 8: in a well diversified portfolio, and of course those big
19:01
Speaker 8: overarching themes. So yes, we're in this moment of you know,
19:05
Speaker 8: I think peak uncertainty is behind us, fortunately, but we're
19:08
Speaker 8: in this moment of uncertainty about what the economy looks
19:12
Speaker 8: like going forward. But I think there's a lot of
19:14
Speaker 8: trends and themes that aren't changing, like the innovation in
19:18
Speaker 8: our economy, like investment in infrastructure, data centers, areas like that.
19:23
Speaker 8: I don't think those big picture trends are necessarily going
19:26
Speaker 8: to change because they're so long term.
19:29
Speaker 4: Marshie, we've seen over the list, I think, just here
19:31
Speaker 4: in twenty twenty five and maybe late twenty four kind
19:34
Speaker 4: of a move into international equities, maybe even fun flows
19:38
Speaker 4: material fun flows out of the US market into other
19:40
Speaker 4: parts of the world. How do you guys think about
19:41
Speaker 4: the US versus non US?
19:44
Speaker 8: Yeah, when I think about international markets, certainly a dollar
19:47
Speaker 8: coming off the way I think of it like the
19:49
Speaker 8: eye popping strength that we had seen recently. So we
19:53
Speaker 8: have this dollar that's moderating. Our few is that the
19:55
Speaker 8: dollar likely continues to moderate from here, really kind of
20:00
Speaker 8: lending some support to international markets. But what keeps me
20:03
Speaker 8: from getting outright bullish outside of the US is we
20:06
Speaker 8: haven't seen the earnings come through. While the US earnings
20:10
Speaker 8: picture expectations have clearly been trimmed over the last several weeks,
20:15
Speaker 8: we still think US corporate earnings stay positive in terms
20:18
Speaker 8: of a growth rate through all of this uncertainty, So
20:22
Speaker 8: I need to see the green shoots on the earning
20:24
Speaker 8: side to get me a lot more positive on international markets.
20:28
Speaker 8: But a dollar that is moderating I think will likely
20:31
Speaker 8: continue to help international from here, probably for the balance
20:34
Speaker 8: of this year. So the answer is I want to
20:37
Speaker 8: own both, but I do still have a preference for
20:39
Speaker 8: US relative to the rest of the world.
20:42
Speaker 2: What about other themes that we've seen. Energy has just
20:46
Speaker 2: gotten crushed, Utilities were kind of rising with the AI play.
20:51
Speaker 2: They became a growth story even though they're also considered
20:53
Speaker 2: a safe haven. What about those trends we were looking
20:55
Speaker 2: at like like eight months ago that now have kind
20:57
Speaker 2: of fallen out by the wayside.
21:00
Speaker 8: Yeah, well, it's really interesting if we rewind before April. Second,
21:03
Speaker 8: this market weakness really started as a rotational correction away
21:08
Speaker 8: from kind of the most overvalued expensive magnificent seven tech names.
21:13
Speaker 8: So our view had been it would be the other
21:15
Speaker 8: four hundred and ninety three that led the way for
21:18
Speaker 8: twenty twenty five, and that's still the case. I think
21:21
Speaker 8: it's going to be this broader market participation. We're talking
21:24
Speaker 8: to clients about playing defense end offense. So defense, as
21:28
Speaker 8: you mentioned, still looks like utilities a way to kind
21:31
Speaker 8: of think about playing that defense just through the S
21:34
Speaker 8: and P five hundred. I also like dividend paying stocks,
21:38
Speaker 8: especially in a world where we're wondering if the FED
21:40
Speaker 8: will or won't cut as the economy shows signs of softening.
21:45
Speaker 8: I think dividend paying stocks and dividend growers it's going
21:48
Speaker 8: to be really interesting. You know, when I think about
21:51
Speaker 8: energy as a sector, it's the only sector I think
21:53
Speaker 8: that's in negative territory in the most recent period for
21:57
Speaker 8: the index this year. You know, I'm a little cautious
22:00
Speaker 8: on energy. I do think when I think about what
22:03
Speaker 8: else could come from Washington to provide a little bit
22:06
Speaker 8: of a cushion from growth, lower energy prices would be
22:09
Speaker 8: a boost to the consumer. We need the consumer to
22:11
Speaker 8: stay resilient here, so I would think about it is
22:15
Speaker 8: less positive on energy. The area of the market that
22:18
Speaker 8: I think has the potential to continue to lead as
22:22
Speaker 8: we get to the other side of this uncertainty is financials.
22:25
Speaker 8: Financials are going to be insulated from some of this
22:28
Speaker 8: trade noise as long as the consumer hangs in and
22:31
Speaker 8: our base cases that the US economy avoids a recession.
22:35
Speaker 8: I think that tees up financials which have pretty strong
22:38
Speaker 8: internals to once again emerges market leadership. But to your point,
22:42
Speaker 8: artificial intelligence innovation, none of those trends are going anywhere,
22:47
Speaker 8: So I think the investment cycle continues as we're in
22:51
Speaker 8: this kind of big picture arms race for technology and AI.
22:56
Speaker 4: Marcy, my notes, tell me that you're based in Savannah, Orga.
23:00
Speaker 4: Please tell me.
23:01
Speaker 3: That's not the case.
23:03
Speaker 8: That is the case.
23:05
Speaker 4: How did you wrangle that? He's just jealous, hugely jealous.
23:10
Speaker 8: Well, if it makes you feel better, I'm in New
23:11
Speaker 8: York pretty regularly. But yeah, as I look out the
23:15
Speaker 8: window here, I.
23:16
Speaker 4: Mean that might be, pound for pound, the prettiest city
23:20
Speaker 4: in all of America. It is awesome, is it down there?
23:22
Speaker 1: Yeah?
23:23
Speaker 4: And the word I mean, she went the Rutgers good,
23:27
Speaker 4: but then she ends up in Savannah, Georgia for banks
23:31
Speaker 4: a jealousy.
23:32
Speaker 5: Marcia, thank you so much.
23:33
Speaker 4: For joining us.
23:33
Speaker 5: We'll have you back.
23:34
Speaker 4: I really appreciate getting some of your thoughts on Marcia Gregor.
23:36
Speaker 4: She's had a portfolio strategy for the CIO at Merrill
23:40
Speaker 4: and Bank of America Private Bank from Savannah.
23:43
Speaker 8: George Savannah.
23:45
Speaker 4: Oh, it is just it's a great long weekend trip
23:48
Speaker 4: from New York. Yeah, it's good, it's I highly recommend.
23:51
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