Latest / The Paul Barron Crypto Show / Mt. Gox Bitcoin Dump vs Ethereum ETF Launch Week🔥
Transcript
- Let's dive into the eth ETF today. It's going to be a good one because we'll break down some of the things that could push ETH into a very bullish signal or maybe a reversal. We'll talk about all that good stuff. My name is Paul Vera. Welcome back in a tech path. We've got a big poll up today, so everybody that's listening in right now watching make sure and participate in the poll. I want to get a really good feedback of what the audience thinks is going to happen to the Ethereum ETF as we start to go live next week, so it's coming up very fast. I do want to thank our sponsor, that's coinbase. If you're looking at decent or excuse me, centralized exchanges and you want to get in and start your first crypto purchase, this is the place to do it. So this is for a lot of new people that are maybe just getting into crypto for the first time. Coinbase is always a great place to start. Yes, we talk about all sorts of decentralized products out there, but this is one to use as one of your primaries, so make sure and check it out. Just at a coinbase dot com. You can of course sign up over there and get up to two hundred bucks in a crypto reward just by signing up and getting into it. All right, let's get into a few topics today. One I want to talk about, of course, is been ethereum. And by the way, I know a lot of people in our Mastermind group has been actually asking when the indicator will be available. It is. We're like literally hours away from starting to assign this into your trading View account, so you'll be able to get the MSI indicator on the charts. So right now, eth trading up and still a little bit of a positive sentiment overall trade MSI is still holding pretty positive at fifty five percent as ethereum starts to hit thirty four, so not bad at all. Right now, we'll take a look, and I think that's the big question that everybody's asking, is how's this going to play out? When you look at the other thing that can play into this is of course bitcoin and Malcox Mountcox creditors now opt to hotal bitcoin a little bit more in terms of pay us. This was a Reddit pole. I'll just highlight right here on the reddit pole itself, you can kind of see what percentage of bitcoins will you sell immediately? Most people looking to be in a position of holding so, but you know, we have a handful that most likely will be taking a little bit of profits and moving on other things that we're kind of focused on in the article. Approximately twenty percent of creditors basically intend to sell their bitcoins. So we'll see would you guys do that? Would you sell your bitcoin if you were if you're a mountgox holder out there, let us know in the comments, just drop some over there. I'm kind of curious how many ogs do we have out there that are watching the show, because I don't think I would do it. I don't think I would do it. If you look at the actual Malgox's wallet here, of course, is what's happening right there, you can kind of see some of the activity that's been happening, including just over a little bit ago, we're continuing to see two days ago, we saw a lot of transactions that flowed into what we think is a Kraken wallet, which is around three billion right there. And of course, a couple of things to consider on the krack in scenario is this statement right here, This was done by Krack and talking about the way they're going to roll this out. So they they receive the funds from Malcox Trustee and they're going to do the distribution from seven to fourteen days. So this was back on the sixteenth of July, so figure seven days forward of that, you'll probably start seeing funds going into that. That's going to be about I guess a third of what we'll see in terms of the activity. Could this push bitcoin down? And does ethereum follow along with it? All of this timing is very interesting because it cues up right into what's happening with the e ETF as well other things I want to hit on right here. It was the site was down for twenty four hours because of scam login emails. And this is a problem that I think maybe the Reddit chart or poll may not be as accurate as we think, but this is talking about users claiming they've been hit with the flurry of attempted login attacks. Dozens of users in the threads claim that they've been receiving multiple attempted logging emails out of the blues. So intriguing that we could see maybe and it also could be just a scenario because it's just in such of a huge focus in terms of a magnifying glass right now, user unsure. If maltgox says bugs or hackers, we'll see, jeez, what would that do? That would be another big mess. All right, we're getting some questions in make sure and drop some of those over there. And if you like the live streams, let us know, make sure and just smash the like button right now. It's a great way for us to get information from you, our partners, our community, and it really gives us insights to whether or not you like the live streams or if you like the recorded videos, which we do a lot of those as well. This is something though that I think a lot of people are trying to figure out, is when does the marketing begin for the ETFs one, and then how will the strategy start to roll out? Because if you look at the fees of things like you know, coinbase, Finance, et cetera, and then you look at the fees that are basically being proposed here by all of these funds, I mean, we'll all kind of zoom in on these. You can kind of see what's happening here. Starting fee pretty much zero for most of these most of these till at least the end of the year, and many of course even going into next year. So you've got van k coming in at zero point two after their waiver fee after one year, you got Bitwise coming in at zero six month on their waiver fee, twenty one Shares coming in at zero and even Fidelity coming in at zero the point twenty five until the end of the year for this year. So but they have an unlimited amount on the waiver fee. So it'll be this could be how would you play this? Would you trade ether or would I mean with these fees, would you maybe go into an ETF with an eath purchase? I don't know. And if you did have something that's sitting on a brokerage, this is an easy flip over into, especially if it's cash, you don't have to move it. You know, it could go right into an ETF. Grayscale though, of course, just abusing it over and over at a two point five percent fee. Right now in the post fee still setting at two point five so things not being necessarily taken into consideration on what Grayscale is doing. Here's Jacob Camfield. He hits on a couple of points ETF may may not be as bullish as you think for a few months, and he's looking at why many of this is still kind of flowing into the grayscale situation. I mean, people might end up getting out of that situation and could cause a little bit softer launch with this. Black Rocks fees or point two five n X still point to five, even though that's coming down and we're seeing this now at zero. But once the unlock happens, I expect massive selling similar to what we saw with bitcoin. This of course talking about the gray scale unlock right there on that ethereum trust so there it's et as you can see, we're getting into that zone where you know, the discount isn't there, So this would be the opportunity for that to occur. Other things of course, here's that are Bolshon is cheap and not sure cheap enough to move the needle, and they're talking about gray scale here, but black Rock same fee, tro tract organic flowst off set the big unlock. Do these newborns have enough strength to offset the outflows? I'll a bitcoin and I think I don't know. I think this is a different scenario this time around. Even though it's just a you look at supply and demand, you look at the framework in which eth is is really looked at by asset managers, and to an extent, I just wonder if people are going to say, no, I see eth as an upside here even on the gray scale trade, and may not necessarily take advantage of it. So, as he says, we'll see a lot of questions coming in, we'll try to get to some of those in there. I do want to go to a clip because this clip will get into whether or not the ETF you know, performance in how it signals to investors, because remember that first few days is going to be pretty significant in reference to signaling to traditional asset managers. Take a look at what this analyst had to say. Let's go to that clip. So a couple of different things. The first thing is signals. It's kind of trickled down investing strategy. So if you were to go back twelve eighteen, twenty four months we were talking to family offices. These are people with hundreds or hundreds of millions of dollars of assets, I would say, uh, and I'm speaking a little bit ending Dudley. One hundred percent of family offices had some crypto, right, and they're getting more serious about that over time. That's moving into the general kind of investing mainstream. So I think the first key takeaway for my colleagues over at Parthenon is there's nothing about crypto assets or tokenized assets that is a fad. Like anybody who sees that anymore, that viewpoint is out of date. I get very excited about this. The thing that people should kind of keep in mind and have a little bit of caution about is more money into crypto and blockchain is not a rising tide that lifts all boats. I believe we will see investment markets behave in relatively similar ways. And what I mean by this is Ethereum has become the dominant kind of tokenized asset and smart contract platform. I think that'll be kind of a similar effect there where the you know, Ethereum will soak up more than ninety percent of all these tokenized real world assets that companies like Blackrock and others are talking about deploying. All right, so I think that's still very bullish, you know, in the sense of how eth is going to be deployed in the traditional financial markets. But with that, you know, you look at the trajectory of you know, because he's been family offices who at the time of the Bitcoin ETF maybe we're just dabbling. Have they started to look at a position now from a portfolio side of rebalancing this into a mix. Think of it this way. If you said, Okay, I'm going to go with two percent to five percent of crypto, just blockchain in general, and of that mix, I want to do a fifty to fifty bitcoin eighth. That's the kind of impact that this could have, which could be significant going forward. The other thing that we'll hit on here because this is a clip I want to play that gets into where the next trillion dollars is going to be coming from. Because this is a scenario that plays into this. We'll go to this clip in a second. By the way, before we get into that clip, I want to remind everybody that hit the poll because I want to get enough votes here to really get a good read on the potential of what you guys think around the ethereum ETF and how it might play. All Right, So we just did an interview earlier today with i would say one of the top fed analysts out there, and she was hitting on a couple of points, and this was in reference to the clip I'm about to play for you guys of where the potential opportunity would come from in terms of growth, I'll mention I'll precursor it with that. Then I'll give you guys an insight on the backside of this. Let's go to that clip. Is there's some new wave that's going to open people tonight. The next ten trillion dollars are going to be driven by clients, not by us attending to the interest of young investors. So do it yourself, investors, millennials who are buying df so for the first time. Ether is a much smaller product in terms of assets under management and bitcoin. What are we expecting? So give give it a six month run. I think we'll look at this and we'll say the EAT funds have about ten percent of what's in the bitcoin funds. If a Salona ETF comes next, I think it's going to be an even smaller allocation. Do you have a strategy here, Yeah, Bob, I'm a big believer in digital assets. I think that whether we like it or we hate it, we have to pay it tension because this is where the money is going and this is where investors are and what's exciting to me is a digital asset two point zero? What is the next version? And that's why we partner with the Galaxy Capital because we think that the expertise lies with cryptonatives. What is this involved. It's not going to be about the big coin, is not going to be about either. It's going to be the entire digital assets ecosystem. How do we hedge the volatility within a portfolio? Interesting way to do this, all right, So a lot of things to unpacked there in that clip. Her look and viewpoint is that we're going to see kind of a new wave of investor. It may not necessarily fall into the primary tokens and some of the primary assets that we see in digital but at the same time, and this is what was brought to me by the analyst today and I kind of I'm thinking through this more now that I've listened to her talk about it. Who has, you know, decades of experience around how these markets have moved. And one of the things she mentioned was the shift from the boomer to gen X. Boomer's controlled a lot of the assets under management that's now shifting some down to generation X and if you look at that in comparison, have we just transitioned more wealth into a smaller class and they become the ones that dictate how the markets move? Because that's really where the boomer has really played a huge role going forward. So if that is the case, if her analysis was correct, then she thinks that we would see less of the crypt natives and or you know, the millennial gen Z really impacting the market just because of the difference in how much. Now when you look at the market cap of bitcoins two and a half times of the size of ether. This is a company that was just on the clip right here at Galaxy and they hit on a few points here. Based on the above, we think that Ether on the spotifos will be about three times three x less than the US spot bickcoin ETF inflows, So okay, but we think that the ether spot inflows could be as high as thirty three percent of the size of the spot bitcoin ETF inflows with a range of around twenty to fifty. This would be huge in terms of inflows. Now, the question is where does that come from. It goes back to that point that the analysts on the FED and the Markets was talking about, which is this could be coming from an emerging class of gen X investors that have a lot of liquid wealth to flow into something, who might be likelier to invest in ethereum. So I know this is a lot of different you know, positions, but i'd love to you know, I want your feedback too, So again, hit that poll today. We'll get into it. A couple other things and other news. Yeah, a lot more questions coming in. We'll try to get some of those for sure. Other things on other news right here, just as a reminder of the Sunshine Acts, this is changes in the meeting. This was the closed meeting schedule for Thursday with Ripple. I'm kind of zoom in on that for you guys. Just a little bit has been can now there is speculation running wild. We saw x ORP dip it a little bit. I'll go to the chart in a minute, but some of the speculation is going into this right here. XORP settlement speculation is the top story. It's in the Bloomberg list right there. You can kind of see at number four up right below Adam Shift calling a Biden to quit. But settlement speculation pushes XRP to forefront of crypto rally is the question after several pro crypto rulings over past three well, the sec versus ripptle finally gets settled this summer. If that's the case, we could see a boom and also relistings for XRP, which would be huge. I think that could also be one of the things that maybe lead out some of this bullish market narrative going forward. All Right, you guys got some good questions in here today. I think I've got one more clip to play. Let's go to that clip. Which one do we have here? Let's see here. Oh yeah, we've got Brad garling House. Yeah, let's go with that one, because he goes into the judge ruling and watch his body language here, take a look. But we talk about that. Actually, seems that now have pulled back. Maybe they got the message, But what conversations are you having with them about the structure of regulations, how they may morph, and how they may change going forward. I was actually in Washington, c last Wednesday as part of a crypto roundtable hosted by Repcana but attended by Centat Jillibrand as well as I needed done from the White House, and it was I think the Democrats realizing that they've kind of gotten behind where the Republican Party, the Republican platform has been as relates to crypto, and so I think it was refreshing to start to have that conversation. But look, the one thing that the SEC was arguing most vociferously, it was this idea that XRP, the digital asset that Ripple uses in our technology, was a security, and that was really what they cared about. And what the judge ruled is that XRP is not a security, and that's really been a formative case for the industry. So it's less about the daylight between the regulation of the two parties and it's more just about Gary, Well, certainly Gary Gensler, and my judgment has been he has been at war with crypto, that is for certain. We only have about thirty seconds left, Brad. But I am curious here about your relationship with the SCC. Are you in settlement talks at all with the agency right now? You know, I can't comment that specifically, suffice it to say that the ruling has been clear from the judge. There's one final piece, as you referenced, about these investment contracts are sold to institutions. We expect resolution very soon, but can't predict exactly when the judge will rule there, all right, so I can't comment. I don't know if that's a positive assign or if they're running into some trouble in terms of a settlement. But there are issues out there for sure. Speaking of that, you know, some of the things that, of course Ripple and this has all energized, has been the war against the anti crypto army, and of course we know who leads that with Senator Warren. Here's Medelaman. He says he Finesse created creation of Commonwealth Unity Fund. This is the super pack for John Deaton for the Senate race, and you know he's doing it for the children. As they say, sometimes we have to fight freedom totally. Here's the breaking news right here, and that is let me zoom in on that right there. You can kind of see the pack put together. And there's Ripple Labs now donating in too John Deaton. So great news there, I think in support of the bigger picture here, which is it is this fight is definitely not over. And remember, if you're voting pro crypto, get out in November. You need to get out there in November. Whatever candidate is good for you. But the key here is if you are if you're like me, you're most likely a single issue voter, and that is it's all about crypto and digital assets. What else do we have here? Let's get to some questions. I want to go to the poll real quick. Do we have it up? Yeah? All right, here we go. Let's go. We got four hundred volts in there. Looks like ethereum etf We'll launch with what percent? So everybody's saying around the ten twenty five range, but wow, that more than thirty three. I'm surprised that as large. I'm in that twenty five to thirty three percent range. So I'm a little bit lower, I mean higher, but in the lower percentage amount. For sure. We'll get to some questions. Looks like Mike says, I just can't see eth being so dominant. The fees still a huge problem. Maybe the eight is you're talking about gas fees. I'm assuming, but that's really not going to apply when it comes to the issue of the ETFs. For sure. Rocker Dude says, please tell gray Scale doesn't own any to get dumped on. For months bloodsporces don't. I don't feel like there's any reason to care about big how big the innflows are. Look how big the nflows are with bitcoin. Yeah, it didn't change the price at all. There are some scenarios I think though with bitcoin. Obviously the flow it did change the price. Let's remember the trajectory of bitcoin going to its all time high, I think was pretty much driven by what we saw with or the bigwin ets. Well, what the problem was is that we were dealing with is the mount Gox mount Gox unlock, and then also the situation that we saw in nation states like Germany. Dog with have doing better today than other coins. I mean, listen, that's another You're talking about a meme token, guys, So memes are there's no rhyme or reason these things get going. There's a sentiment split on something that's happening in the market, and they just fly. It's just it is that way. And I'm looking here, I'll go with dog with hat. I think we have it down here. Yeah, there's with right here. So moving up, let's see what the sentiment looks like. One item right there, which was the Solana. Yeah, just thirty hundred percent Forbes Best Performing Crypto title. Basically, like I said, small amount of move right there and you and you end up with a pretty big split on that. I want to see more all coin ETFs, well, I think you're gonna get a chance every day. Algonont is that an Algoran guy? Is that an Algoran guy? I think it might be, Tommy says on Black Rock. RWSFL will go hire seapool Ondo property, Yes, I like onto m property and others will have good properly any of those real war you know, the RWA tokens definitely potentials there. Crypto minors, I think you know, we're going to see a lot more diversification continued for sure. Will eth E t F lead to decoupling from bitcoin? I think this is the case Fox Molder, is that if we're going to see it happen, this I think is the event that could cause it to occur, and now in the near term or in the next eighteen months twelve months, the likelihood, That's where I think the likelihood is, especially as we start to see a new position on an administration. There you go, I knew it was now band guy, especially in the administration and also especially on the flow and how we come out of these markets, because this is still a little bit sensitive in how this market might respond, because many people still believe we're in a recession right now and that this could get extended because of the job numbers that we're going to see. I was life changing money, I would of course sell. This is John's just talking about the situation with docks holders really impact on Ethwood potentially gray scale alflows to a high feest. That's the one that I think is a bit. It is known because we've seen it happen before the quincf but at the same time, there was different, I think, different market parameters that are in play with this, so I think it responds differently a bit. I know everybody will argue that, but it's it's just when you look at all the variables in the market, the pressures, the likelihood of an straight cut, the situation that we're most likely going to see around, you know, scenarios with inflation, and all of this combined into a run up into a new administration from a political standpoint, So just very interesting stuff. Santiago twenty thirty Crypto market cap expectation. Oh my god, this is going to I don't give expectations. What I will tell you it's going to be huge. I mean, we're looking at the birth of an asset class. We're looking at the birth of a technology integration into modern day finance that's never been done before. And I don't think people really understand what this means for the future of not only just finance, but it's just in tech in general. It's gonna be a lot of new innovation coming at us, and especially if we can get a good, you know, administration in that gets clarity on innovation. Man, there's no holding it back. Invisible says I'm waiting on more of a dip load the toad. I like that. I would only remove him percent of my state into a stable. Okay, that's good, and they're up eight thousand on Nikki's I'm not going to say that Invisible voices, I would not sell all right. You guys are having fun in the comments I see over there quite a bit, So thanks for all the comments. We appreciate that. If you have not subscribed to this show, what are you waiting on? This is the show out there that really dives in deep. We go into an extensive amount of research for you guys. And if you're not in our community, that's another thing that you should be doing, which is our Diamond Circle, and it's very simple. You can join, it's free. We have a great community where you can you know, energize with other people, and we do additional content in there for you. So I do analysis on our MSI, which is our trade Indicators. I do some of my own personal videos just on you know, themes that are happening politically, other areas of you know that are out there within the markets as a business owner, and you should just join in, get in there, make sure and follow me on X. It's very simple. You can go out to at Paul Barron. I'll catch you next time right here on Techpath