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STRAT with Hal Kempfer | In-depth Analysis of Global Geopolitical Tensions · STRAT

• 0:06
  From
• 0:06
  the
• 0:06
  Mutual
• 0:07
  Broadcasting
• 0:08
  System,
• 0:08
  this
• 0:09
  is
• 0:10
  Strat
• 0:10
  Strategic
• 0:11
  Risk
• 0:11
  Assessment
• 0:12
  Talk.
• 0:13
  Now,
• 0:14
  retired
• 0:14
  Marine
• 0:15
  intelligence
• 0:15
  officer
• 0:16
  and
• 0:16
  globally
• 0:17
  recognized
• 0:17
  risk
• 0:18
  expert,
• 0:18
  Hal
• 0:18
  Kaemfer.
• 0:28
  Well,
• 0:29
  welcome.
• 0:29
  It's
• 0:29
  another
• 0:30
  Strat
• 0:30
  podcast
• 0:31
  and
• 0:32
  we're
• 0:32
  going
• 0:32
  to
• 0:32
  be
• 0:33
  having
• 0:33
  truly,
• 0:34
  by
• 0:34
  the
• 0:34
  definition
• 0:35
  of
• 0:35
  the
• 0:35
  term,
• 0:35
  a
• 0:36
  strategic
• 0:36
  risk
• 0:37
  assessment
• 0:37
  talk.
• 0:38
  It
• 0:38
  has
• 0:38
  been
• 0:38
  an
• 0:38
  amazing
• 0:39
  week.
• 0:39
  There's
• 0:40
  been
• 0:40
  a
• 0:40
  lot
• 0:40
  of
• 0:40
  things
• 0:40
  going
• 0:41
  on.
• 0:41
  It's
• 0:41
  been
• 0:42
  an
• 0:42
  amazing
• 0:42
  month,
• 0:43
  I
• 0:43
  should
• 0:43
  say.
• 0:44
  It's
• 0:44
  not
• 0:44
  slowing
• 0:45
  down
• 0:45
  in
• 0:46
  the
• 0:46
  least
• 0:46
  and
• 0:47
  I'm
• 0:47
  going
• 0:47
  to
• 0:47
  hit
• 0:47
  a
• 0:47
  lot
• 0:48
  of
• 0:48
  different
• 0:48
  things
• 0:48
  again.
• 0:49
  And
• 0:49
  I
• 0:49
  guess
• 0:49
  at
• 0:49
  some
• 0:50
  point
• 0:50
  I'll
• 0:50
  quit
• 0:51
  saying
• 0:51
  this,
• 0:51
  but
• 0:52
  every
• 0:53
  time
• 0:53
  I
• 0:53
  do
• 0:53
  this,
• 0:53
  I
• 0:53
  still
• 0:54
  think
• 0:54
  of
• 0:54
  my
• 0:54
  Strat
• 0:55
  co
• 0:55
  host,
• 0:56
  Mark
• 0:56
  Mansfield,
• 0:57
  who,
• 0:57
  you
• 0:57
  know,
• 0:57
  tragically
• 0:58
  passed
• 0:58
  away
• 0:59
  last
• 0:59
  Christmas.
• 1:00
  And
• 1:00
  I
• 1:00
  just
• 1:00
  wish
• 1:01
  every
• 1:01
  day
• 1:01
  that
• 1:01
  he
• 1:02
  was
• 1:02
  here.
• 1:02
  There's
• 1:02
  hardly
• 1:03
  a
• 1:03
  day
• 1:03
  that
• 1:03
  goes
• 1:03
  by
• 1:04
  that
• 1:04
  something
• 1:05
  doesn't
• 1:05
  pop
• 1:05
  up
• 1:05
  in
• 1:05
  the
• 1:05
  news.
• 1:06
  I
• 1:06
  go,
• 1:06
  I
• 1:06
  got
• 1:06
  to
• 1:06
  call
• 1:06
  Mark.
• 1:07
  Anyway,
• 1:07
  let
• 1:07
  me
• 1:08
  move
• 1:08
  on
• 1:08
  and
• 1:09
  let's
• 1:09
  talk
• 1:09
  about
• 1:09
  what's
• 1:10
  been
• 1:10
  happening.
• 1:11
  Of
• 1:11
  course,
• 1:11
  one
• 1:11
  of
• 1:11
  the
• 1:12
  things
• 1:12
  hanging
• 1:12
  over
• 1:14
  for
• 1:14
  a
• 1:14
  very
• 1:14
  long
• 1:15
  time,
• 1:15
  hanging
• 1:15
  over
• 1:16
  everybody's
• 1:16
  heads,
• 1:17
  was
• 1:18
  when
• 1:19
  and
• 1:19
  how
• 1:19
  Israel
• 1:20
  would
• 1:20
  respond
• 1:22
  to
• 1:22
  the
• 1:22
  Iranian
• 1:23
  ballistic
• 1:24
  missile
• 1:24
  attacks
• 1:25
  of
• 1:25
  October
• 1:25
  1st.
• 1:26
  This
• 1:27
  was
• 1:27
  the
• 1:27
  second
• 1:27
  time
• 1:28
  that
• 1:28
  Iran
• 1:29
  had
• 1:29
  attacked
• 1:31
  Israel
• 1:31
  directly.
• 1:32
  You
• 1:32
  may
• 1:33
  recall
• 1:33
  last
• 1:33
  April,
• 1:34
  they
• 1:35
  launched
• 1:35
  somewhere
• 1:36
  around
• 1:37
  almost
• 1:37
  300
• 1:38
  drones
• 1:39
  and
• 1:39
  ballistic
• 1:40
  missiles
• 1:41
  towards
• 1:41
  Israel,
• 1:42
  which
• 1:43
  were
• 1:43
  pretty
• 1:43
  much
• 1:44
  almost
• 1:44
  all
• 1:45
  of
• 1:45
  them
• 1:45
  were
• 1:45
  interdicted.
• 1:47
  So
• 1:48
  Israel
• 1:49
  then
• 1:50
  reportedly
• 1:51
  responded
• 1:52
  with
• 1:52
  something
• 1:53
  that
• 1:53
  akin
• 1:53
  to
• 1:53
  a
• 1:54
  stealth
• 1:54
  attack,
• 1:55
  which
• 1:55
  was
• 1:56
  taking
• 1:57
  out
• 1:57
  a
• 1:58
  S300.
• 1:59
  That's
• 2:00
  a
• 2:00
  air
• 2:00
  defense
• 2:01
  missile
• 2:01
  system
• 2:01
  the
• 2:02
  Russians
• 2:02
  have.
• 2:02
  It's
• 2:02
  one
• 2:02
  of
• 2:03
  the
• 2:03
  more
• 2:03
  advanced
• 2:03
  ones,
• 2:03
  not
• 2:04
  the
• 2:04
  most
• 2:04
  advanced
• 2:04
  one,
• 2:05
  but
• 2:05
  one
• 2:05
  of
• 2:05
  the
• 2:05
  more
• 2:05
  advanced
• 2:06
  ones.
• 2:06
  Most
• 2:06
  advanced
• 2:07
  one.
• 2:07
  The
• 2:07
  Iranians
• 2:07
  have
• 2:08
  took
• 2:08
  it
• 2:08
  out
• 2:09
  near
• 2:09
  a
• 2:09
  very
• 2:09
  sensitive
• 2:10
  site,
• 2:11
  a
• 2:11
  place
• 2:11
  that
• 2:11
  the
• 2:11
  Iranians
• 2:12
  thought
• 2:12
  was
• 2:13
  somewhat
• 2:13
  impervious
• 2:14
  to
• 2:14
  attack
• 2:14
  or
• 2:15
  strike.
• 2:15
  And
• 2:16
  that
• 2:16
  was
• 2:16
  to
• 2:16
  send
• 2:17
  a
• 2:17
  message.
• 2:18
  And
• 2:18
  the
• 2:18
  message
• 2:19
  is,
• 2:19
  you
• 2:19
  won't
• 2:19
  see
• 2:19
  us
• 2:20
  coming.
• 2:20
  And
• 2:20
  we
• 2:21
  can
• 2:21
  hit
• 2:21
  pretty
• 2:21
  much
• 2:21
  anywhere
• 2:22
  to
• 2:22
  include
• 2:22
  the
• 2:23
  places
• 2:23
  you
• 2:23
  think
• 2:23
  are
• 2:24
  most
• 2:24
  well,
• 2:25
  most
• 2:25
  heavily
• 2:25
  defended
• 2:25
  or
• 2:26
  best
• 2:26
  defended.
• 2:27
  In
• 2:27
  Iran,
• 2:29
  that
• 2:29
  message
• 2:30
  was
• 2:30
  clearly
• 2:30
  lost
• 2:31
  on
• 2:31
  Ayatollah
• 2:32
  Khomeini,
• 2:33
  lost
• 2:34
  on
• 2:34
  the
• 2:34
  Revolutionary
• 2:35
  Guard
• 2:35
  Corps,
• 2:36
  lost
• 2:37
  on
• 2:37
  his
• 2:37
  command
• 2:38
  staff.
• 2:39
  Basically,
• 2:40
  it
• 2:40
  was
• 2:40
  very
• 2:41
  subtle
• 2:41
  the
• 2:41
  way
• 2:41
  it
• 2:41
  was
• 2:42
  done.
• 2:42
  And
• 2:43
  everyone
• 2:43
  was
• 2:44
  very
• 2:44
  pleased
• 2:44
  that
• 2:45
  Israel
• 2:45
  had
• 2:45
  shown
• 2:45
  great
• 2:46
  restraint
• 2:47
  in
• 2:48
  terms
• 2:48
  of
• 2:48
  this.
• 2:48
  Well,
• 2:49
  you
• 2:49
  know,
• 2:49
  of
• 2:49
  course,
• 2:50
  a
• 2:50
  lot
• 2:50
  of
• 2:50
  things
• 2:50
  have
• 2:51
  happened
• 2:51
  since
• 2:51
  April.
• 2:52
  You
• 2:52
  know,
• 2:52
  Haniyeh,
• 2:53
  the
• 2:53
  head
• 2:53
  of
• 2:53
  Hamas,
• 2:54
  the
• 2:54
  political
• 2:55
  side
• 2:55
  of
• 2:55
  Hamas
• 2:55
  out
• 2:56
  of
• 2:56
  Doha,
• 2:57
  was
• 2:57
  not
• 2:57
  just
• 2:58
  assassinated,
• 2:59
  but
• 2:59
  he
• 2:59
  was
• 2:59
  actually
• 3:00
  assassinated
• 3:01
  in
• 3:02
  a
• 3:02
  Revolutionary
• 3:03
  Guard
• 3:03
  safe
• 3:04
  house
• 3:04
  in
• 3:04
  Tehran.
• 3:06
  And
• 3:06
  he
• 3:06
  was
• 3:06
  there
• 3:07
  for
• 3:07
  the
• 3:07
  inauguration
• 3:08
  of
• 3:08
  the
• 3:09
  Iranian
• 3:09
  president.
• 3:09
  It
• 3:10
  was
• 3:10
  extremely
• 3:11
  embarrassing
• 3:12
  to
• 3:13
  Iran
• 3:13
  and
• 3:14
  that
• 3:14
  is
• 3:14
  one
• 3:14
  of
• 3:14
  the
• 3:14
  big
• 3:15
  reasons
• 3:15
  that
• 3:15
  they
• 3:15
  responded.
• 3:16
  And
• 3:16
  then
• 3:16
  of
• 3:16
  course
• 3:17
  also
• 3:18
  the
• 3:18
  Israelis
• 3:18
  managed
• 3:19
  to
• 3:19
  take
• 3:19
  out
• 3:19
  Nasrallah,
• 3:20
  the
• 3:20
  head
• 3:21
  of
• 3:21
  Hamas
• 3:23
  in
• 3:23
  Lebanon,
• 3:24
  in
• 3:24
  a
• 3:25
  very
• 3:25
  spectacular
• 3:25
  strike.
• 3:26
  Then
• 3:27
  this
• 3:27
  week,
• 3:27
  this
• 3:27
  last
• 3:28
  week,
• 3:28
  they
• 3:28
  took
• 3:28
  out,
• 3:29
  they
• 3:29
  admitted
• 3:30
  they'd
• 3:30
  already
• 3:30
  taken
• 3:30
  him
• 3:31
  out,
• 3:31
  but
• 3:31
  they
• 3:31
  admitted
• 3:32
  taking
• 3:32
  out
• 3:32
  Hassan
• 3:33
  Sufideen,
• 3:34
  which
• 3:34
  was
• 3:35
  the
• 3:35
  heir
• 3:36
  apparent
• 3:36
  to
• 3:37
  Nasrallah,
• 3:37
  the
• 3:38
  next
• 3:38
  head
• 3:38
  of
• 3:39
  Hezbollah.
• 3:39
  And
• 3:40
  I
• 3:40
  don't
• 3:40
  want
• 3:40
  to
• 3:41
  get
• 3:41
  into
• 3:41
  all
• 3:41
  of
• 3:42
  the
• 3:42
  leaders
• 3:42
  of
• 3:43
  Hezbollah,
• 3:43
  Hamas,
• 3:44
  ET,
• 3:44
  etc.
• 3:45
  And
• 3:46
  of
• 3:46
  course
• 3:46
  also
• 3:47
  in
• 3:47
  these
• 3:47
  strikes,
• 3:48
  they
• 3:48
  took
• 3:48
  out
• 3:48
  the
• 3:48
  head
• 3:48
  of
• 3:48
  the
• 3:49
  Al
• 3:49
  Quds
• 3:49
  Force
• 3:50
  who
• 3:50
  was
• 3:51
  reportedly
• 3:51
  with
• 3:51
  Sufideen
• 3:52
  standing
• 3:52
  next
• 3:53
  to
• 3:53
  him
• 3:53
  when
• 3:54
  he
• 3:54
  was
• 3:54
  struck,
• 3:54
  and
• 3:55
  the
• 3:55
  Revolutionary
• 3:56
  Guard
• 3:56
  Corps
• 3:56
  who
• 3:56
  was
• 3:56
  standing
• 3:57
  next
• 3:57
  to
• 3:58
  Nasrallah
• 3:59
  when
• 3:59
  he
• 3:59
  was
• 3:59
  struck.
• 4:00
  So
• 4:00
  just
• 4:00
  an
• 4:00
  amazing
• 4:01
  series
• 4:02
  of
• 4:02
  decapitation
• 4:03
  strikes
• 4:04
  across
• 4:04
  the
• 4:04
  board.
• 4:04
  Anyway,
• 4:05
  all
• 4:05
  of
• 4:05
  that
• 4:05
  has
• 4:05
  led
• 4:06
  to
• 4:06
  what
• 4:07
  the
• 4:07
  Iranians
• 4:07
  did
• 4:08
  on
• 4:08
  October
• 4:09
  5th
• 4:09
  and
• 4:10
  that
• 4:10
  has
• 4:10
  led
• 4:10
  to
• 4:10
  what
• 4:11
  just
• 4:11
  happened,
• 4:12
  which
• 4:12
  is
• 4:13
  the
• 4:13
  Israeli
• 4:14
  response.
• 4:14
  Now
• 4:15
  what
• 4:15
  did
• 4:15
  Israel
• 4:16
  do?
• 4:16
  Well,
• 4:17
  on
• 4:18
  basically,
• 4:19
  I
• 4:20
  don't
• 4:20
  know,
• 4:21
  you
• 4:21
  could
• 4:21
  say,
• 4:22
  you
• 4:23
  know,
• 4:23
  Saturday
• 4:23
  night,
• 4:24
  I
• 4:24
  guess
• 4:25
  there's
• 4:25
  a
• 4:25
  big
• 4:25
  time
• 4:26
  difference
• 4:26
  between
• 4:26
  the
• 4:26
  US
• 4:27
  and
• 4:27
  over
• 4:27
  there.
• 4:28
  But
• 4:28
  in
• 4:28
  the
• 4:28
  wee
• 4:29
  hours
• 4:29
  of
• 4:29
  the
• 4:29
  morning,
• 4:30
  there
• 4:30
  was
• 4:30
  a
• 4:31
  massive
• 4:32
  Israeli
• 4:32
  strike
• 4:33
  involved
• 4:33
  over
• 4:33
  100
• 4:34
  strike
• 4:35
  aircraft
• 4:36
  of
• 4:36
  various
• 4:37
  different
• 4:37
  types
• 4:37
  that
• 4:37
  I
• 4:37
  would
• 4:38
  remind
• 4:39
  everyone
• 4:39
  that
• 4:39
  they
• 4:40
  fly
• 4:40
  the
• 4:40
  F35
• 4:41
  which
• 4:42
  is
• 4:42
  one
• 4:42
  of
• 4:42
  the
• 4:42
  most
• 4:42
  advanced
• 4:43
  fighter
• 4:43
  bombers
• 4:43
  we
• 4:43
  have.
• 4:44
  They
• 4:44
  also
• 4:45
  fly
• 4:45
  the
• 4:46
  15,
• 4:46
  the
• 4:47
  more
• 4:47
  advanced
• 4:48
  15
• 4:48
  Eagles.
• 4:49
  These
• 4:49
  are,
• 4:51
  these
• 4:51
  are
• 4:51
  not
• 4:51
  the
• 4:52
  ones
• 4:52
  from
• 4:52
  way
• 4:53
  back
• 4:53
  when
• 4:53
  in
• 4:53
  the
• 4:53
  70s.
• 4:54
  These
• 4:54
  are
• 4:55
  very
• 4:55
  advanced
• 4:56
  strike
• 4:56
  aircraft
• 4:57
  and
• 4:57
  of
• 4:58
  course
• 4:58
  F16s
• 4:59
  as
• 4:59
  well.
• 5:00
  All
• 5:00
  of
• 5:00
  these
• 5:00
  flew
• 5:01
  very
• 5:01
  long
• 5:02
  missions.
• 5:02
  Now
• 5:02
  some
• 5:02
  of
• 5:02
  the,
• 5:03
  some
• 5:03
  of
• 5:03
  the
• 5:03
  target
• 5:03
  sets
• 5:04
  were
• 5:04
  closer
• 5:04
  to
• 5:05
  Israel
• 5:06
  than
• 5:06
  some
• 5:06
  of
• 5:06
  the
• 5:06
  others.
• 5:06
  They
• 5:07
  did
• 5:07
  get
• 5:07
  all
• 5:07
  the
• 5:07
  way
• 5:08
  into
• 5:08
  Tehran,
• 5:08
  in
• 5:09
  and
• 5:09
  around
• 5:09
  Tehran.
• 5:10
  There
• 5:10
  were,
• 5:11
  there
• 5:11
  are
• 5:11
  videos
• 5:12
  that
• 5:12
  are
• 5:12
  out
• 5:12
  there
• 5:13
  circulating
• 5:13
  taken
• 5:14
  from
• 5:14
  Tehran
• 5:15
  residents
• 5:16
  where
• 5:16
  you
• 5:17
  hear
• 5:18
  constant
• 5:18
  explosions
• 5:19
  and
• 5:19
  stuff.
• 5:20
  You
• 5:20
  hear
• 5:20
  anti
• 5:20
  aircraft
• 5:21
  fire,
• 5:22
  but
• 5:22
  you
• 5:22
  can
• 5:22
  clearly
• 5:23
  hear
• 5:23
  what
• 5:23
  sounds
• 5:23
  like
• 5:24
  something
• 5:24
  big
• 5:25
  exploding
• 5:25
  in
• 5:25
  the
• 5:26
  distance.
• 5:27
  And
• 5:27
  those
• 5:27
  would
• 5:27
  probably
• 5:28
  be
• 5:28
  the
• 5:28
  Israeli
• 5:28
  strike
• 5:29
  missions
• 5:29
  hitting
• 5:30
  various
• 5:30
  targets
• 5:31
  in
• 5:31
  and
• 5:31
  around
• 5:31
  Tehran.
• 5:32
  Part
• 5:33
  of
• 5:33
  that
• 5:33
  is
• 5:33
  for
• 5:33
  the
• 5:34
  physical
• 5:34
  attack,
• 5:35
  taking
• 5:35
  out
• 5:35
  air
• 5:35
  defense
• 5:36
  in
• 5:36
  Tehran,
• 5:37
  which
• 5:37
  of
• 5:37
  course
• 5:37
  degrades
• 5:38
  the
• 5:38
  ability
• 5:38
  of
• 5:38
  Tehran
• 5:39
  to
• 5:39
  defend
• 5:39
  itself
• 5:40
  the
• 5:40
  next
• 5:41
  time
• 5:41
  there
• 5:41
  might
• 5:41
  be
• 5:42
  a
• 5:42
  strike.
• 5:43
  But
• 5:43
  also
• 5:44
  it
• 5:44
  is
• 5:44
  a
• 5:44
  big
• 5:44
  psychological
• 5:46
  operation
• 5:46
  in
• 5:47
  that
• 5:47
  it
• 5:47
  tells
• 5:48
  everybody
• 5:48
  in
• 5:49
  the
• 5:49
  capital
• 5:49
  city,
• 5:50
  well
• 5:51
  within
• 5:51
  the
• 5:52
  air
• 5:52
  defense
• 5:53
  envelope
• 5:54
  of
• 5:54
  Iran,
• 5:55
  that
• 5:55
  they
• 5:56
  are
• 5:56
  vulnerable,
• 5:57
  that
• 5:57
  they
• 5:57
  can
• 5:57
  be
• 5:57
  hit.
• 5:58
  And
• 5:58
  it
• 5:58
  is
• 5:58
  a
• 5:58
  bit
• 5:59
  of
• 5:59
  a
• 5:59
  reminder
• 5:59
  on
• 5:59
  that.
• 6:00
  Now
• 6:01
  a
• 6:01
  number
• 6:01
  of
• 6:01
  the
• 6:01
  strikes
• 6:02
  are
• 6:02
  actually
• 6:02
  closer
• 6:03
  to
• 6:03
  the
• 6:03
  border
• 6:04
  with
• 6:05
  Iraq
• 6:05
  and
• 6:06
  Kuwait
• 6:06
  and
• 6:06
  they
• 6:06
  took
• 6:07
  out
• 6:07
  on
• 6:07
  all
• 6:08
  the
• 6:08
  strikes,
• 6:08
  I
• 6:08
  should
• 6:08
  mention
• 6:09
  took
• 6:10
  out
• 6:10
  military
• 6:11
  sites,
• 6:11
  none
• 6:12
  of
• 6:12
  them
• 6:12
  were
• 6:12
  aimed
• 6:12
  at
• 6:12
  civilian
• 6:13
  stuff.
• 6:14
  They
• 6:14
  did
• 6:14
  not
• 6:15
  take
• 6:15
  out,
• 6:15
  they
• 6:15
  did
• 6:16
  not
• 6:16
  go
• 6:16
  after
• 6:16
  the
• 6:17
  nuclear
• 6:18
  facilities
• 6:18
  that
• 6:19
  had
• 6:19
  been
• 6:19
  talked
• 6:19
  about
• 6:20
  so
• 6:20
  much
• 6:20
  in
• 6:20
  the
• 6:20
  news.
• 6:21
  They
• 6:21
  did
• 6:21
  not
• 6:21
  do
• 6:21
  that,
• 6:22
  although
• 6:23
  there
• 6:23
  were
• 6:23
  reports
• 6:24
  still
• 6:24
  waiting
• 6:24
  for
• 6:25
  confirmation
• 6:25
  that
• 6:26
  one
• 6:26
  of
• 6:26
  the
• 6:26
  strikes
• 6:27
  may
• 6:27
  have
• 6:27
  been
• 6:28
  close
• 6:29
  to
• 6:29
  maybe
• 6:30
  not
• 6:30
  exactly
• 6:30
  on.
• 6:31
  Again,
• 6:31
  we're
• 6:32
  still
• 6:32
  waiting
• 6:32
  for
• 6:32
  more
• 6:32
  information,
• 6:33
  but
• 6:33
  close
• 6:34
  to
• 6:34
  one
• 6:34
  of
• 6:34
  the
• 6:35
  sites
• 6:35
  that
• 6:35
  Iran
• 6:36
  had
• 6:36
  said
• 6:36
  was
• 6:36
  going
• 6:37
  to
• 6:37
  become
• 6:38
  a
• 6:39
  nuclear
• 6:39
  research
• 6:40
  and
• 6:40
  development
• 6:40
  facility.
• 6:41
  And
• 6:42
  right
• 6:42
  now,
• 6:42
  if
• 6:42
  I
• 6:42
  had
• 6:42
  to
• 6:43
  guess
• 6:43
  or
• 6:43
  just
• 6:44
  take
• 6:44
  from
• 6:44
  what
• 6:44
  we
• 6:44
  got,
• 6:45
  I
• 6:45
  should
• 6:45
  say
• 6:46
  it
• 6:46
  looks
• 6:46
  like
• 6:46
  they
• 6:47
  may
• 6:47
  have
• 6:47
  taken
• 6:47
  out
• 6:47
  one
• 6:47
  or
• 6:48
  two
• 6:48
  air
• 6:48
  defense
• 6:49
  sites
• 6:50
  in
• 6:51
  and
• 6:51
  around
• 6:51
  that
• 6:51
  area
• 6:52
  just
• 6:53
  to
• 6:53
  send
• 6:53
  the
• 6:53
  message
• 6:54
  that
• 6:54
  that
• 6:54
  that
• 6:55
  particular
• 6:55
  location
• 6:57
  is
• 6:57
  vulnerable.
• 6:58
  And
• 6:58
  it's
• 6:58
  an
• 6:58
  interesting
• 6:59
  message
• 6:59
  that
• 6:59
  sends
• 6:59
  the
• 6:59
  Iranians,
• 7:00
  which
• 7:00
  is
• 7:01
  that
• 7:02
  they
• 7:02
  did
• 7:02
  not,
• 7:02
  they
• 7:03
  were,
• 7:03
  they
• 7:03
  didn't
• 7:04
  hit
• 7:05
  a
• 7:05
  nuclear
• 7:05
  site,
• 7:06
  and
• 7:06
  technically
• 7:06
  this
• 7:07
  was
• 7:07
  a
• 7:07
  nuclear
• 7:07
  site
• 7:07
  because
• 7:08
  it
• 7:08
  was
• 7:08
  still
• 7:08
  being
• 7:08
  built,
• 7:09
  but
• 7:10
  that
• 7:10
  they
• 7:10
  have
• 7:10
  the
• 7:10
  capability
• 7:11
  to
• 7:11
  do
• 7:12
  so.
• 7:12
  And
• 7:13
  that's
• 7:13
  an
• 7:13
  interesting
• 7:13
  one.
• 7:13
  The
• 7:13
  other
• 7:14
  one
• 7:14
  was
• 7:14
  they
• 7:14
  hit
• 7:14
  a
• 7:15
  number
• 7:15
  of
• 7:15
  things.
• 7:16
  A
• 7:16
  couple
• 7:16
  of
• 7:16
  provinces
• 7:17
  close
• 7:18
  right
• 7:18
  on
• 7:18
  the
• 7:18
  border
• 7:18
  with
• 7:18
  Iraq
• 7:19
  and
• 7:19
  Kuwait,
• 7:20
  and
• 7:20
  those
• 7:20
  are
• 7:20
  areas
• 7:21
  at
• 7:21
  least
• 7:21
  one
• 7:21
  of
• 7:22
  them,
• 7:22
  certainly
• 7:22
  the
• 7:22
  one
• 7:22
  next
• 7:23
  to
• 7:23
  Kuwait,
• 7:23
  that's
• 7:23
  an
• 7:23
  area
• 7:24
  that's
• 7:24
  heavy
• 7:25
  in
• 7:25
  oil
• 7:26
  production.
• 7:26
  A
• 7:26
  lot
• 7:26
  of
• 7:27
  oil
• 7:27
  fields,
• 7:27
  both
• 7:28
  of
• 7:28
  them
• 7:28
  have
• 7:28
  oil
• 7:28
  refineries.
• 7:29
  Oil
• 7:30
  pipelines
• 7:30
  didn't
• 7:31
  hit
• 7:31
  any
• 7:31
  of
• 7:31
  those,
• 7:31
  albeit
• 7:32
  one
• 7:32
  thing
• 7:32
  I
• 7:33
  should
• 7:33
  mention
• 7:33
  is
• 7:34
  last
• 7:34
  week
• 7:34
  there
• 7:34
  was
• 7:35
  one
• 7:35
  of
• 7:35
  the
• 7:35
  refineries
• 7:36
  in
• 7:36
  one
• 7:36
  of
• 7:36
  the
• 7:36
  areas
• 7:37
  that
• 7:37
  was
• 7:37
  targeted
• 7:38
  that
• 7:38
  had
• 7:38
  a
• 7:39
  mysterious
• 7:39
  fire,
• 7:40
  an
• 7:40
  explosion,
• 7:41
  a
• 7:41
  fire.
• 7:42
  I
• 7:42
  think
• 7:42
  one
• 7:42
  one
• 7:42
  person
• 7:43
  was
• 7:43
  killed.
• 7:44
  And
• 7:44
  it
• 7:44
  wasn't
• 7:45
  quite
• 7:45
  clear
• 7:46
  what
• 7:46
  exactly
• 7:48
  caused
• 7:48
  that
• 7:48
  to
• 7:49
  happen.
• 7:49
  There
• 7:50
  was
• 7:50
  speculation
• 7:51
  it
• 7:51
  might
• 7:51
  have
• 7:51
  not
• 7:51
  been
• 7:52
  accidental.
• 7:52
  It
• 7:53
  could
• 7:53
  have
• 7:53
  been
• 7:53
  intentional.
• 7:54
  And
• 7:54
  then
• 7:55
  you
• 7:55
  can
• 7:56
  read
• 7:56
  into
• 7:56
  that
• 7:57
  what
• 7:57
  you
• 7:57
  will
• 7:58
  as
• 7:58
  to
• 7:58
  how
• 7:58
  that
• 7:59
  could
• 7:59
  have
• 7:59
  been
• 7:59
  done.
• 8:00
  But
• 8:00
  I
• 8:00
  did
• 8:00
  find
• 8:00
  it
• 8:00
  rather
• 8:01
  interesting
• 8:01
  that
• 8:01
  in
• 8:01
  and
• 8:02
  around
• 8:02
  the
• 8:02
  area
• 8:02
  where
• 8:03
  that
• 8:03
  mysterious
• 8:03
  fire
• 8:04
  had
• 8:04
  taken
• 8:04
  place
• 8:05
  that
• 8:05
  then
• 8:05
  we,
• 8:06
  you
• 8:06
  see
• 8:07
  Israeli
• 8:08
  strike
• 8:08
  missions
• 8:09
  hitting
• 8:09
  various
• 8:10
  military
• 8:10
  targets,
• 8:11
  if
• 8:11
  you
• 8:11
  will,
• 8:12
  in
• 8:12
  that
• 8:12
  area.
• 8:13
  Now,
• 8:13
  they
• 8:14
  flew
• 8:14
  over,
• 8:15
  I
• 8:15
  don't
• 8:15
  know
• 8:16
  if
• 8:16
  they
• 8:16
  flew
• 8:16
  through
• 8:16
  Saudi
• 8:17
  airspace.
• 8:18
  I
• 8:18
  think
• 8:18
  with
• 8:18
  one
• 8:19
  of
• 8:19
  the
• 8:19
  missions,
• 8:19
  that's
• 8:20
  very
• 8:20
  likely.
• 8:21
  I
• 8:21
  don't
• 8:21
  know
• 8:21
  if
• 8:21
  they
• 8:22
  flew
• 8:22
  through
• 8:22
  Jordanian
• 8:23
  airspace,
• 8:24
  although
• 8:24
  I
• 8:24
  think
• 8:25
  that's
• 8:25
  very
• 8:25
  probable
• 8:26
  as
• 8:26
  well.
• 8:26
  You
• 8:26
  may
• 8:27
  recall
• 8:27
  that
• 8:27
  Iran
• 8:28
  had
• 8:29
  pretty
• 8:29
  much
• 8:30
  threatened
• 8:30
  Saudi
• 8:31
  Arabia,
• 8:31
  Jordan
• 8:32
  and
• 8:32
  other
• 8:33
  countries
• 8:33
  in
• 8:33
  the
• 8:33
  Middle
• 8:34
  east
• 8:34
  that
• 8:34
  if
• 8:34
  they
• 8:34
  allowed
• 8:35
  the
• 8:35
  Israelis
• 8:35
  to
• 8:36
  retaliate
• 8:37
  by
• 8:37
  flying
• 8:37
  through
• 8:37
  their
• 8:38
  airspace,
• 8:38
  that
• 8:38
  those
• 8:39
  countries
• 8:39
  themselves
• 8:40
  would
• 8:40
  become
• 8:41
  the
• 8:41
  targets
• 8:42
  of
• 8:42
  Iranian
• 8:42
  retaliation.
• 8:44
  However,
• 8:44
  it
• 8:44
  does
• 8:45
  appear
• 8:46
  that
• 8:46
  a
• 8:46
  number
• 8:46
  of
• 8:46
  the
• 8:47
  planes
• 8:47
  went
• 8:47
  up
• 8:48
  through
• 8:48
  Syria
• 8:49
  and
• 8:49
  Iraq.
• 8:50
  And
• 8:50
  the
• 8:51
  reason
• 8:51
  we
• 8:51
  know
• 8:51
  that
• 8:51
  is
• 8:52
  because
• 8:52
  they
• 8:53
  struck
• 8:53
  military
• 8:54
  sites
• 8:55
  of
• 8:55
  Shiite
• 8:56
  militias,
• 8:57
  Iranian
• 8:58
  proxy
• 8:58
  groups
• 8:59
  in
• 9:00
  Syria
• 9:00
  and
• 9:01
  Iraq.
• 9:01
  So
• 9:02
  we
• 9:02
  know
• 9:02
  that
• 9:02
  some
• 9:03
  planes
• 9:03
  went
• 9:03
  up
• 9:03
  there
• 9:03
  because
• 9:04
  they
• 9:04
  actually
• 9:04
  did
• 9:04
  strike
• 9:05
  missions
• 9:06
  in
• 9:06
  those
• 9:06
  countries.
• 9:07
  And
• 9:07
  of
• 9:07
  course,
• 9:08
  to
• 9:08
  fly
• 9:08
  through
• 9:09
  Syrian
• 9:09
  airspace,
• 9:10
  they're
• 9:10
  not
• 9:10
  going
• 9:10
  to
• 9:10
  ask
• 9:10
  permission.
• 9:11
  And
• 9:11
  frankly,
• 9:12
  to
• 9:12
  fly
• 9:12
  through
• 9:12
  Iraqi
• 9:13
  airspace,
• 9:13
  they're
• 9:13
  probably
• 9:14
  not
• 9:14
  going
• 9:14
  to.
• 9:14
  They
• 9:14
  wouldn't
• 9:15
  ask
• 9:15
  for
• 9:15
  permission
• 9:15
  either.
• 9:16
  They
• 9:17
  went
• 9:17
  through
• 9:17
  those
• 9:17
  areas
• 9:18
  and
• 9:18
  they
• 9:19
  hit
• 9:19
  those
• 9:19
  targets.
• 9:21
  Three
• 9:21
  waves,
• 9:22
  over
• 9:22
  100
• 9:22
  planes
• 9:23
  and
• 9:23
  a
• 9:24
  lot
• 9:24
  of
• 9:24
  damage,
• 9:24
  but
• 9:25
  no
• 9:26
  big.
• 9:26
  And
• 9:26
  this
• 9:26
  was
• 9:27
  something
• 9:27
  I
• 9:27
  was
• 9:27
  wondering,
• 9:28
  I'd
• 9:28
  said
• 9:28
  this
• 9:28
  many
• 9:28
  times
• 9:29
  in
• 9:29
  the
• 9:29
  air
• 9:29
  that
• 9:30
  I
• 9:30
  thought
• 9:30
  they
• 9:30
  might
• 9:30
  go
• 9:31
  after
• 9:31
  some
• 9:31
  command
• 9:31
  and
• 9:32
  control.
• 9:33
  They
• 9:33
  did
• 9:33
  not
• 9:33
  go
• 9:34
  directly
• 9:34
  after
• 9:34
  command
• 9:35
  and
• 9:35
  control.
• 9:35
  What
• 9:36
  they
• 9:36
  did
• 9:36
  was
• 9:36
  they
• 9:37
  went
• 9:37
  after
• 9:37
  the
• 9:37
  air
• 9:38
  defenses
• 9:38
  surrounding
• 9:40
  these
• 9:41
  high
• 9:41
  value
• 9:42
  targets,
• 9:42
  you
• 9:42
  know,
• 9:42
  like
• 9:43
  irg,
• 9:44
  Revolutionary
• 9:44
  Guard
• 9:45
  Corps
• 9:45
  headquarters,
• 9:46
  and
• 9:46
  certainly
• 9:47
  all
• 9:47
  the
• 9:48
  major
• 9:48
  buildings,
• 9:49
  facilities
• 9:50
  in
• 9:50
  and
• 9:50
  around
• 9:50
  Tehran,
• 9:51
  the
• 9:51
  capital
• 9:52
  city
• 9:52
  of
• 9:52
  Iran.
• 9:53
  They
• 9:53
  didn't
• 9:53
  hit
• 9:54
  them,
• 9:54
  but
• 9:54
  they
• 9:55
  kind
• 9:55
  of
• 9:55
  left.
• 9:55
  They
• 9:56
  left
• 9:56
  the
• 9:56
  gate
• 9:56
  door
• 9:57
  wide
• 9:57
  open,
• 9:57
  if
• 9:57
  you
• 9:57
  will,
• 9:58
  by
• 9:58
  taking
• 9:58
  out
• 9:58
  air
• 9:59
  defense
• 9:59
  and
• 9:59
  basically
• 10:00
  sending
• 10:00
  a
• 10:00
  message
• 10:00
  to
• 10:01
  Iran
• 10:01
  is
• 10:01
  okay,
• 10:02
  we
• 10:02
  did
• 10:03
  this,
• 10:03
  we
• 10:03
  showed
• 10:03
  restraint,
• 10:04
  and
• 10:04
  we'll
• 10:05
  see
• 10:05
  what
• 10:05
  you
• 10:05
  do.
• 10:05
  And
• 10:05
  if
• 10:06
  Iran
• 10:06
  retaliates
• 10:07
  in
• 10:07
  some
• 10:08
  way
• 10:08
  similar
• 10:08
  to
• 10:08
  what
• 10:08
  they've
• 10:08
  done
• 10:09
  in
• 10:09
  the
• 10:09
  past,
• 10:10
  then
• 10:11
  I
• 10:11
  would
• 10:11
  anticipate
• 10:12
  whatever
• 10:12
  Israel
• 10:13
  does
• 10:13
  would
• 10:13
  be
• 10:14
  much
• 10:14
  more
• 10:15
  honed
• 10:16
  in
• 10:17
  on
• 10:17
  going
• 10:18
  after
• 10:18
  things
• 10:18
  that
• 10:18
  are
• 10:18
  much
• 10:19
  closer
• 10:19
  to
• 10:20
  what,
• 10:20
  what
• 10:20
  maintains
• 10:21
  a
• 10:21
  regime,
• 10:22
  if
• 10:22
  you
• 10:22
  will,
• 10:23
  in,
• 10:24
  in,
• 10:25
  in
• 10:25
  Iran
• 10:26
  and
• 10:26
  taking
• 10:26
  out
• 10:26
  that
• 10:26
  autocratic
• 10:27
  theocratic
• 10:28
  regime,
• 10:28
  at
• 10:29
  least
• 10:29
  removing
• 10:30
  or
• 10:30
  loosening
• 10:30
  some
• 10:30
  of
• 10:30
  those
• 10:31
  pillars
• 10:31
  that
• 10:31
  prop
• 10:31
  it
• 10:32
  up.
• 10:32
  So
• 10:33
  that
• 10:33
  would
• 10:33
  be
• 10:33
  my
• 10:33
  guess
• 10:34
  if
• 10:34
  Iran
• 10:34
  does
• 10:35
  something
• 10:35
  like
• 10:35
  some
• 10:35
  big
• 10:36
  retaliation.
• 10:36
  But
• 10:36
  again,
• 10:37
  we
• 10:37
  don't
• 10:37
  know.
• 10:37
  We
• 10:38
  don't
• 10:38
  know
• 10:38
  what
• 10:38
  they're
• 10:38
  going
• 10:38
  to
• 10:38
  do
• 10:40
  and
• 10:40
  we'll
• 10:40
  find
• 10:40
  out
• 10:41
  soon
• 10:41
  enough.
• 10:41
  So
• 10:42
  that's
• 10:43
  what
• 10:43
  happened
• 10:44
  this
• 10:44
  week.
• 10:44
  One
• 10:45
  of
• 10:45
  the
• 10:45
  more
• 10:45
  interesting
• 10:45
  targets
• 10:46
  they
• 10:46
  hit
• 10:47
  was
• 10:48
  taking
• 10:48
  out
• 10:48
  a
• 10:48
  manufacturing
• 10:49
  facility,
• 10:49
  a
• 10:50
  ballistic
• 10:50
  missile
• 10:51
  site,
• 10:52
  and
• 10:52
  there
• 10:52
  was
• 10:52
  some
• 10:53
  discussion
• 10:54
  about
• 10:55
  maybe
• 10:56
  there
• 10:56
  was
• 10:56
  a
• 10:57
  drone
• 10:58
  facility,
• 10:59
  drone
• 10:59
  manufacturing
• 11:00
  facility
• 11:00
  might
• 11:00
  have
• 11:00
  been
• 11:00
  hit.
• 11:01
  I
• 11:01
  never
• 11:01
  heard
• 11:02
  any
• 11:02
  confirmation
• 11:03
  that
• 11:03
  they
• 11:03
  actually
• 11:04
  hit
• 11:05
  a
• 11:05
  drone
• 11:06
  manufacturing
• 11:07
  facility.
• 11:07
  I
• 11:08
  certainly
• 11:08
  was
• 11:08
  looking
• 11:09
  for
• 11:09
  that.
• 11:10
  That
• 11:10
  is
• 11:10
  one
• 11:10
  of
• 11:11
  the
• 11:11
  targets
• 11:11
  that
• 11:11
  I
• 11:11
  had
• 11:12
  speculated
• 11:13
  that
• 11:13
  they
• 11:14
  might
• 11:14
  look
• 11:14
  at
• 11:15
  that
• 11:15
  before,
• 11:16
  before
• 11:16
  the
• 11:16
  missions
• 11:16
  took
• 11:17
  place
• 11:17
  as
• 11:17
  a
• 11:18
  possible
• 11:18
  target
• 11:18
  set.
• 11:19
  But
• 11:20
  I
• 11:20
  did
• 11:20
  not
• 11:20
  see
• 11:20
  where
• 11:20
  they
• 11:20
  got
• 11:21
  hit.
• 11:21
  But
• 11:21
  they
• 11:21
  did
• 11:22
  confirm
• 11:22
  that
• 11:22
  they
• 11:22
  hit
• 11:22
  a
• 11:22
  ballistic
• 11:23
  missile.
• 11:23
  And
• 11:23
  they
• 11:24
  hit
• 11:24
  the
• 11:24
  missile
• 11:24
  site
• 11:25
  in
• 11:25
  such
• 11:25
  a
• 11:25
  way
• 11:26
  that
• 11:26
  went
• 11:27
  after
• 11:27
  basically
• 11:28
  the
• 11:28
  fuel
• 11:28
  system
• 11:29
  components,
• 11:29
  I
• 11:29
  should
• 11:30
  say
• 11:30
  tied
• 11:30
  to
• 11:31
  the
• 11:31
  fuel
• 11:31
  system
• 11:32
  components
• 11:32
  that
• 11:33
  they
• 11:33
  don't
• 11:33
  have
• 11:34
  organically
• 11:35
  in
• 11:36
  Iran.
• 11:36
  In
• 11:36
  other
• 11:36
  words,
• 11:37
  they
• 11:37
  don't
• 11:37
  produce
• 11:37
  those
• 11:37
  components
• 11:38
  in
• 11:38
  Iran.
• 11:39
  They
• 11:39
  have
• 11:40
  to
• 11:40
  import
• 11:40
  them.
• 11:41
  I
• 11:42
  believe
• 11:42
  they
• 11:42
  import
• 11:42
  them
• 11:42
  from
• 11:43
  China.
• 11:43
  And
• 11:45
  if
• 11:45
  you're
• 11:45
  familiar
• 11:46
  with
• 11:46
  the
• 11:46
  Carver
• 11:47
  analysis,
• 11:48
  Carver,
• 11:50
  it's
• 11:50
  a
• 11:50
  analysis
• 11:51
  used
• 11:51
  for
• 11:52
  critical
• 11:52
  infrastructure
• 11:52
  vulnerability.
• 11:53
  It's
• 11:53
  also
• 11:53
  used
• 11:54
  for
• 11:54
  targeting.
• 11:55
  It's
• 11:55
  a
• 11:55
  kind
• 11:55
  of
• 11:55
  a
• 11:55
  double
• 11:55
  edged
• 11:56
  sword
• 11:56
  thing.
• 11:56
  But
• 11:56
  if
• 11:56
  you're
• 11:57
  familiar
• 11:57
  with
• 11:57
  that
• 11:57
  and
• 11:57
  you're
• 11:57
  certainly
• 11:58
  welcome
• 11:58
  to
• 11:58
  look
• 11:58
  it
• 11:58
  up
• 11:59
  online.
• 12:00
  Carver,
• 12:01
  ironically,
• 12:02
  I
• 12:03
  always
• 12:03
  thought
• 12:03
  it
• 12:03
  was
• 12:03
  really
• 12:04
  amazing
• 12:04
  stuff.
• 12:05
  And
• 12:05
  then
• 12:05
  years
• 12:06
  later
• 12:06
  I
• 12:06
  was,
• 12:07
  I
• 12:07
  was
• 12:07
  somewhat,
• 12:08
  I
• 12:08
  don't
• 12:08
  know,
• 12:09
  disappointed
• 12:09
  to
• 12:09
  find
• 12:10
  out
• 12:10
  that
• 12:10
  the
• 12:10
  guy
• 12:10
  who
• 12:10
  developed
• 12:11
  the
• 12:11
  Carver
• 12:12
  acronym,
• 12:13
  his
• 12:13
  last
• 12:13
  name
• 12:14
  just
• 12:14
  happened
• 12:14
  to
• 12:14
  be
• 12:14
  Carver,
• 12:15
  which
• 12:15
  kind
• 12:15
  of
• 12:15
  always
• 12:16
  made
• 12:16
  me
• 12:16
  wonder,
• 12:17
  okay,
• 12:17
  what
• 12:18
  if
• 12:18
  his
• 12:18
  name
• 12:18
  was
• 12:18
  John
• 12:19
  Jacob
• 12:19
  Jingleheimer
• 12:19
  Schmidt,
• 12:20
  what
• 12:20
  would
• 12:20
  it
• 12:20
  have
• 12:21
  been
• 12:21
  then?
• 12:21
  But
• 12:21
  nonetheless,
• 12:22
  I,
• 12:22
  you
• 12:22
  know,
• 12:23
  I
• 12:23
  would
• 12:23
  say
• 12:23
  take
• 12:23
  a
• 12:23
  look
• 12:24
  at
• 12:24
  that.
• 12:24
  And
• 12:24
  it
• 12:24
  was
• 12:24
  kind
• 12:25
  of
• 12:25
  interesting
• 12:25
  that
• 12:25
  they
• 12:25
  hit
• 12:26
  that
• 12:26
  facility.
• 12:26
  I'm
• 12:27
  sure
• 12:27
  that
• 12:27
  was
• 12:27
  going
• 12:27
  after
• 12:28
  components
• 12:28
  that
• 12:29
  would
• 12:29
  take
• 12:29
  a
• 12:30
  long
• 12:30
  lead
• 12:31
  time
• 12:32
  to
• 12:32
  replace
• 12:33
  and
• 12:34
  that
• 12:34
  really
• 12:34
  slows
• 12:35
  down
• 12:36
  the
• 12:36
  ability
• 12:36
  of
• 12:36
  Iran
• 12:37
  to
• 12:37
  produce
• 12:37
  ballistic
• 12:38
  missiles
• 12:38
  that
• 12:38
  could
• 12:38
  be
• 12:39
  aimed
• 12:39
  at
• 12:39
  Israel.
• 12:39
  Also
• 12:40
  the
• 12:41
  ability
• 12:41
  of
• 12:41
  Iran
• 12:41
  to
• 12:41
  produce
• 12:42
  ballistic
• 12:42
  missiles
• 12:43
  that
• 12:43
  could
• 12:43
  potentially
• 12:44
  be
• 12:44
  shipped
• 12:44
  to
• 12:45
  Russia
• 12:45
  and
• 12:46
  that
• 12:46
  they
• 12:46
  might
• 12:46
  try
• 12:47
  to
• 12:47
  use
• 12:47
  those
• 12:47
  in
• 12:48
  fighting
• 12:48
  the
• 12:48
  Ukrainians.
• 12:49
  So
• 12:50
  there's
• 12:52
  a
• 12:52
  rather
• 12:52
  interesting
• 12:53
  message,
• 12:54
  strategic
• 12:54
  message
• 12:54
  across
• 12:55
  the
• 12:55
  board
• 12:56
  from
• 12:56
  taking
• 12:56
  out
• 12:57
  that
• 12:57
  particular
• 12:57
  set.
• 12:57
  So
• 12:58
  I
• 12:58
  thought
• 12:58
  that
• 12:58
  was
• 12:58
  kind
• 12:58
  of
• 12:59
  interesting
• 12:59
  that
• 13:00
  they
• 13:00
  did
• 13:00
  that.
• 13:01
  Now
• 13:01
  what
• 13:01
  were
• 13:02
  Israel's
• 13:03
  strategic
• 13:03
  goals
• 13:04
  in
• 13:04
  this
• 13:04
  thing?
• 13:04
  I'm
• 13:05
  sure
• 13:05
  a
• 13:05
  lot
• 13:05
  of
• 13:05
  people
• 13:05
  are
• 13:05
  kind
• 13:05
  of
• 13:06
  wondering,
• 13:06
  you
• 13:07
  know,
• 13:07
  what
• 13:07
  did
• 13:07
  they
• 13:07
  want
• 13:07
  to
• 13:08
  accomplish?
• 13:08
  Well,
• 13:08
  one
• 13:09
  of
• 13:09
  the
• 13:09
  first
• 13:09
  thoughts
• 13:09
  is,
• 13:10
  well,
• 13:10
  they'd
• 13:10
  like
• 13:10
  to
• 13:10
  see
• 13:10
  regime
• 13:11
  change.
• 13:11
  Honestly,
• 13:12
  I
• 13:12
  think
• 13:13
  every
• 13:13
  other
• 13:13
  country
• 13:14
  except
• 13:15
  for
• 13:15
  Syria
• 13:16
  in
• 13:17
  the
• 13:17
  Middle
• 13:17
  east
• 13:18
  would
• 13:18
  like
• 13:18
  to
• 13:18
  see
• 13:18
  regime
• 13:19
  change
• 13:20
  in
• 13:21
  Iran.
• 13:21
  I
• 13:21
  think
• 13:22
  everyone's
• 13:22
  had
• 13:22
  enough.
• 13:22
  Certainly
• 13:23
  Saudi
• 13:23
  Arabia,
• 13:24
  all
• 13:24
  the
• 13:24
  Gulf
• 13:24
  states
• 13:25
  have
• 13:26
  certainly
• 13:26
  had
• 13:26
  enough
• 13:27
  of
• 13:27
  this
• 13:29
  extremist
• 13:30
  theocratic
• 13:30
  autocratic
• 13:31
  regime
• 13:33
  that
• 13:33
  is,
• 13:34
  that's
• 13:35
  controlled
• 13:35
  Iran
• 13:36
  since
• 13:36
  1979.
• 13:37
  They
• 13:37
  would
• 13:38
  certainly
• 13:38
  like
• 13:38
  to
• 13:38
  see
• 13:38
  it
• 13:38
  happen.
• 13:39
  To
• 13:40
  execute
• 13:41
  regime
• 13:41
  change
• 13:42
  would
• 13:42
  take
• 13:42
  a
• 13:42
  lot.
• 13:43
  And
• 13:44
  it's
• 13:44
  not
• 13:44
  something
• 13:44
  you're
• 13:44
  going
• 13:45
  to
• 13:45
  do
• 13:45
  on
• 13:45
  one
• 13:45
  overnight
• 13:46
  strike
• 13:46
  mission.
• 13:47
  That
• 13:47
  would
• 13:47
  be
• 13:48
  a
• 13:49
  series
• 13:49
  of
• 13:50
  strike
• 13:50
  missions
• 13:51
  over
• 13:51
  an
• 13:51
  extended
• 13:52
  period
• 13:52
  of
• 13:52
  time.
• 13:53
  And
• 13:54
  frankly
• 13:54
  it
• 13:54
  would
• 13:55
  be
• 13:55
  much
• 13:55
  more
• 13:55
  than
• 13:55
  that
• 13:56
  because
• 13:56
  you'd
• 13:57
  have
• 13:57
  to
• 13:57
  have,
• 13:57
  you
• 13:58
  know,
• 13:58
  things
• 13:58
  that
• 13:58
  you
• 13:58
  just
• 13:58
  don't
• 13:59
  have
• 13:59
  now,
• 13:59
  which
• 13:59
  is
• 14:00
  you'd
• 14:01
  probably
• 14:01
  have
• 14:01
  to
• 14:01
  have
• 14:02
  some
• 14:02
  sort
• 14:02
  of
• 14:02
  commando
• 14:03
  or
• 14:03
  a
• 14:03
  presence
• 14:04
  or
• 14:04
  something
• 14:04
  like
• 14:04
  that
• 14:05
  to
• 14:05
  go
• 14:05
  in
• 14:05
  there
• 14:06
  and
• 14:06
  actually
• 14:06
  do
• 14:06
  physical
• 14:06
  raids
• 14:07
  on
• 14:07
  the
• 14:07
  ground.
• 14:07
  And
• 14:08
  that's
• 14:08
  not
• 14:08
  something
• 14:08
  that
• 14:09
  obviously
• 14:09
  Israel
• 14:10
  was
• 14:10
  set
• 14:10
  up
• 14:10
  to
• 14:11
  do
• 14:11
  with
• 14:11
  this
• 14:11
  particular
• 14:12
  raid.
• 14:12
  The
• 14:12
  other
• 14:12
  thing
• 14:13
  you'd
• 14:13
  have
• 14:13
  to
• 14:13
  do
• 14:13
  is
• 14:14
  have
• 14:14
  a
• 14:14
  phenomenal
• 14:14
  clandestine
• 14:15
  or
• 14:16
  covert
• 14:16
  action
• 14:17
  program
• 14:18
  that
• 14:18
  would
• 14:18
  somehow
• 14:19
  mobilize
• 14:19
  Iranian
• 14:21
  personnel,
• 14:21
  Iranian
• 14:22
  citizens
• 14:23
  I
• 14:23
  should
• 14:23
  say
• 14:23
  to
• 14:23
  try
• 14:24
  and
• 14:24
  overthrow
• 14:24
  the
• 14:25
  government.
• 14:25
  And
• 14:25
  certainly
• 14:26
  with
• 14:27
  the
• 14:27
  crackdown
• 14:27
  from
• 14:27
  the
• 14:28
  last
• 14:28
  series
• 14:28
  of
• 14:28
  protests,
• 14:29
  even
• 14:29
  though
• 14:29
  this
• 14:29
  is
• 14:29
  a
• 14:30
  very,
• 14:30
  very
• 14:30
  unpopular
• 14:31
  regime,
• 14:32
  to
• 14:32
  say
• 14:32
  the
• 14:32
  least,
• 14:33
  I
• 14:33
  just
• 14:33
  don't
• 14:33
  see
• 14:33
  that
• 14:33
  manifesting
• 14:34
  itself
• 14:34
  in
• 14:35
  short
• 14:35
  order.
• 14:35
  That
• 14:35
  would
• 14:36
  be
• 14:36
  a
• 14:36
  very,
• 14:36
  that
• 14:36
  would
• 14:36
  be
• 14:36
  a
• 14:37
  tall
• 14:37
  thing
• 14:37
  to
• 14:37
  put
• 14:37
  out
• 14:37
  there.
• 14:37
  So
• 14:38
  that,
• 14:38
  so
• 14:38
  Israel's
• 14:38
  strategic
• 14:39
  goals
• 14:39
  was
• 14:40
  basically,
• 14:40
  from
• 14:40
  what
• 14:40
  I
• 14:41
  can
• 14:41
  tell,
• 14:41
  was
• 14:41
  to
• 14:42
  strike
• 14:42
  at
• 14:43
  those
• 14:43
  things
• 14:43
  that
• 14:43
  posed
• 14:44
  a
• 14:44
  direct
• 14:44
  threat
• 14:44
  to
• 14:45
  Israel.
• 14:45
  And
• 14:45
  in
• 14:46
  that
• 14:46
  regard,
• 14:47
  I
• 14:47
  think
• 14:47
  they
• 14:47
  largely
• 14:48
  accomplished
• 14:49
  what
• 14:49
  they
• 14:49
  set
• 14:49
  out
• 14:49
  to
• 14:50
  do.
• 14:50
  I
• 14:51
  mean,
• 14:51
  certainly
• 14:51
  they
• 14:51
  could
• 14:52
  hit
• 14:52
  some
• 14:52
  more
• 14:52
  targets.
• 14:53
  I
• 14:53
  can
• 14:53
  think
• 14:53
  of
• 14:53
  plenty
• 14:53
  of
• 14:53
  things
• 14:54
  they
• 14:54
  may
• 14:54
  want
• 14:55
  to
• 14:55
  hit,
• 14:55
  but.
• 14:56
  But
• 14:56
  I
• 14:56
  think
• 14:56
  they
• 14:56
  accomplished
• 14:57
  what
• 14:57
  they
• 14:57
  want
• 14:57
  to
• 14:58
  do
• 14:58
  with
• 14:58
  this
• 14:58
  one.
• 14:59
  The
• 14:59
  other
• 14:59
  thing
• 14:59
  is
• 15:00
  militarily,
• 15:01
  they
• 15:01
  can
• 15:01
  still
• 15:01
  have
• 15:01
  their
• 15:02
  hands
• 15:02
  kind
• 15:02
  of
• 15:02
  full
• 15:02
  with
• 15:03
  what's
• 15:03
  going
• 15:03
  on
• 15:04
  in
• 15:05
  southern
• 15:06
  Lebanon
• 15:06
  and
• 15:07
  Lebanon
• 15:07
  as
• 15:07
  a
• 15:07
  whole,
• 15:07
  dealing
• 15:08
  with
• 15:08
  Hezbollah.
• 15:09
  You
• 15:10
  know,
• 15:10
  they're
• 15:10
  still
• 15:10
  having
• 15:10
  to
• 15:10
  occasionally
• 15:11
  deal
• 15:11
  with
• 15:11
  things
• 15:11
  coming
• 15:11
  out
• 15:12
  of
• 15:12
  the
• 15:12
  Houthis
• 15:13
  down
• 15:13
  in
• 15:13
  Yemen.
• 15:14
  And
• 15:14
  of
• 15:14
  course
• 15:14
  they
• 15:14
  have
• 15:15
  the
• 15:15
  ongoing
• 15:16
  situation
• 15:17
  in
• 15:17
  the
• 15:18
  Gaza
• 15:18
  Strip
• 15:19
  and
• 15:19
  of
• 15:19
  course
• 15:20
  things
• 15:20
  in,
• 15:20
  in
• 15:21
  the
• 15:21
  West
• 15:21
  Bank.
• 15:21
  And
• 15:21
  it
• 15:22
  was
• 15:22
  interesting
• 15:22
  to
• 15:22
  hear
• 15:23
  Israel
• 15:23
  talk
• 15:23
  about
• 15:23
  this
• 15:24
  as
• 15:24
  a
• 15:24
  seven
• 15:25
  front
• 15:25
  war.
• 15:26
  And
• 15:26
  I
• 15:27
  actually
• 15:27
  had
• 15:27
  to
• 15:27
  do
• 15:27
  some
• 15:27
  math
• 15:28
  to
• 15:28
  go
• 15:28
  seven
• 15:28
  fronts,
• 15:29
  where
• 15:29
  they
• 15:29
  get
• 15:29
  seven
• 15:29
  fronts.
• 15:30
  And
• 15:30
  then
• 15:30
  I
• 15:31
  realized
• 15:31
  what
• 15:31
  they're
• 15:31
  talking
• 15:31
  about,
• 15:32
  you
• 15:32
  know,
• 15:32
  Syria,
• 15:32
  Iraq,
• 15:33
  Iran,
• 15:34
  and
• 15:34
  then
• 15:35
  they
• 15:35
  get
• 15:35
  into,
• 15:36
  you
• 15:36
  know,
• 15:36
  certainly
• 15:37
  Gaza,
• 15:37
  the
• 15:37
  West
• 15:38
  Bank,
• 15:38
  Lebanon,
• 15:40
  and
• 15:40
  then
• 15:40
  of
• 15:40
  course
• 15:40
  the
• 15:41
  Houthis
• 15:41
  down
• 15:41
  Yemen.
• 15:42
  Like,
• 15:42
  yeah,
• 15:42
  there
• 15:42
  you
• 15:42
  go.
• 15:42
  You
• 15:42
  got
• 15:43
  a
• 15:43
  seven
• 15:43
  front
• 15:43
  war
• 15:44
  literally
• 15:44
  spreading
• 15:45
  across
• 15:45
  the
• 15:45
  Middle
• 15:46
  east
• 15:46
  if
• 15:46
  you
• 15:46
  look
• 15:47
  at
• 15:47
  it.
• 15:47
  So
• 15:47
  it's
• 15:47
  a.
• 15:48
  They've
• 15:48
  got,
• 15:49
  let's
• 15:49
  just
• 15:49
  say
• 15:49
  they
• 15:49
  got
• 15:50
  a
• 15:50
  lot
• 15:50
  of
• 15:50
  things
• 15:50
  they
• 15:50
  have
• 15:51
  to
• 15:51
  take
• 15:51
  care
• 15:51
  of
• 15:51
  militarily
• 15:52
  without
• 15:52
  opening
• 15:53
  up
• 15:53
  this
• 15:53
  thing
• 15:54
  further.
• 15:54
  The
• 15:54
  other
• 15:55
  thing
• 15:55
  is
• 15:55
  their
• 15:56
  primary
• 15:56
  backer,
• 15:56
  the
• 15:57
  United
• 15:57
  States
• 15:59
  has
• 15:59
  been
• 15:59
  very
• 15:59
  clear
• 16:00
  since
• 16:00
  the
• 16:00
  outset
• 16:01
  that
• 16:01
  they
• 16:01
  did
• 16:01
  not
• 16:01
  want
• 16:01
  to
• 16:01
  see
• 16:02
  nuclear
• 16:02
  facilities
• 16:03
  targeted
• 16:04
  for
• 16:04
  a
• 16:04
  variety
• 16:04
  of
• 16:05
  reasons,
• 16:05
  not
• 16:05
  the
• 16:05
  least
• 16:06
  of
• 16:06
  which
• 16:06
  is
• 16:06
  they
• 16:06
  thought
• 16:07
  it
• 16:07
  could
• 16:07
  have
• 16:07
  the
• 16:07
  opposite
• 16:08
  effect.
• 16:09
  Instead
• 16:09
  of,
• 16:10
  you
• 16:10
  know,
• 16:11
  slowing
• 16:11
  down
• 16:12
  Iran's
• 16:12
  movement
• 16:13
  to
• 16:13
  creating
• 16:13
  a
• 16:14
  building
• 16:14
  a
• 16:14
  nuclear
• 16:15
  bomb,
• 16:15
  it
• 16:15
  could
• 16:16
  actually
• 16:16
  have
• 16:16
  the
• 16:16
  indirect
• 16:17
  effect
• 16:17
  of
• 16:17
  speeding
• 16:18
  up
• 16:18
  Iran's
• 16:19
  movement
• 16:19
  into
• 16:20
  trying
• 16:20
  to
• 16:20
  build
• 16:20
  a
• 16:21
  nuclear
• 16:21
  weapon.
• 16:21
  So
• 16:21
  that
• 16:22
  was
• 16:22
  a
• 16:22
  big
• 16:22
  fear
• 16:23
  that
• 16:23
  also
• 16:23
  the
• 16:24
  real
• 16:24
  world
• 16:24
  is
• 16:25
  some
• 16:25
  of
• 16:25
  those
• 16:25
  facilities
• 16:26
  are
• 16:26
  so
• 16:27
  deeply
• 16:28
  embedded
• 16:29
  underground,
• 16:30
  reinforced
• 16:31
  concrete,
• 16:32
  so
• 16:32
  tough
• 16:33
  to
• 16:33
  target
• 16:34
  that
• 16:34
  you
• 16:34
  could
• 16:34
  go
• 16:35
  in
• 16:35
  and
• 16:35
  hit
• 16:35
  them
• 16:35
  with
• 16:35
  strike
• 16:36
  missions
• 16:36
  and
• 16:36
  frankly,
• 16:37
  you
• 16:38
  wouldn't
• 16:38
  destroy
• 16:38
  them.
• 16:39
  You
• 16:39
  can,
• 16:40
  some
• 16:40
  things
• 16:40
  you
• 16:40
  could
• 16:40
  destroy,
• 16:41
  but
• 16:41
  there's
• 16:41
  a
• 16:41
  lot
• 16:42
  of
• 16:42
  things,
• 16:42
  certainly
• 16:43
  the
• 16:43
  most
• 16:43
  sensitive
• 16:43
  sites,
• 16:44
  the
• 16:44
  ones
• 16:44
  you
• 16:44
  really
• 16:44
  would
• 16:45
  like
• 16:45
  to
• 16:45
  take
• 16:45
  out,
• 16:46
  you
• 16:47
  probably
• 16:47
  wouldn't
• 16:47
  take
• 16:48
  out
• 16:48
  and
• 16:48
  again,
• 16:49
  that
• 16:49
  would
• 16:49
  be
• 16:49
  a
• 16:49
  big
• 16:50
  setback
• 16:50
  to
• 16:50
  hit
• 16:50
  them
• 16:51
  and
• 16:51
  then
• 16:52
  not
• 16:52
  have
• 16:52
  accomplished
• 16:53
  the
• 16:53
  mission.
• 16:53
  Just
• 16:53
  wasted
• 16:54
  ordnance
• 16:54
  destroying
• 16:55
  things
• 16:55
  around
• 16:55
  it,
• 16:55
  but
• 16:56
  not
• 16:56
  actually
• 16:56
  destroying
• 16:56
  the
• 16:57
  target
• 16:57
  sets
• 16:57
  themselves.
• 16:58
  So
• 16:58
  that,
• 16:59
  that's
• 16:59
  another
• 16:59
  thing.
• 16:59
  So
• 16:59
  the
• 17:00
  US
• 17:00
  Was
• 17:00
  opposed
• 17:00
  to
• 17:01
  that
• 17:01
  President
• 17:02
  Biden,
• 17:02
  and
• 17:02
  I
• 17:02
  don't
• 17:02
  know
• 17:02
  what
• 17:02
  he
• 17:03
  was
• 17:03
  thinking
• 17:03
  when
• 17:03
  he
• 17:03
  said
• 17:03
  this,
• 17:04
  but
• 17:04
  he
• 17:04
  did
• 17:05
  one
• 17:05
  day
• 17:05
  he
• 17:06
  talked
• 17:06
  about
• 17:06
  this,
• 17:06
  he
• 17:07
  said,
• 17:07
  well,
• 17:07
  maybe
• 17:07
  they
• 17:07
  could
• 17:07
  hit
• 17:08
  oil
• 17:08
  facilities
• 17:09
  like
• 17:09
  refineries
• 17:09
  or
• 17:09
  pipelines
• 17:10
  or
• 17:10
  something.
• 17:11
  I'm
• 17:11
  not
• 17:11
  quite
• 17:12
  sure
• 17:12
  what
• 17:12
  he
• 17:12
  was
• 17:12
  thinking
• 17:13
  when
• 17:13
  he
• 17:13
  said
• 17:13
  that.
• 17:13
  But
• 17:14
  literally
• 17:14
  the
• 17:14
  next
• 17:14
  day,
• 17:15
  global
• 17:15
  oil
• 17:16
  prices
• 17:16
  jumped
• 17:16
  10%.
• 17:17
  And
• 17:17
  the
• 17:18
  day
• 17:18
  after
• 17:18
  that,
• 17:18
  he
• 17:18
  immediately
• 17:19
  came
• 17:19
  back,
• 17:19
  said,
• 17:19
  no,
• 17:19
  no,
• 17:20
  no,
• 17:20
  I
• 17:20
  didn't
• 17:20
  mean
• 17:20
  that
• 17:20
  they're
• 17:21
  not
• 17:21
  supposed
• 17:21
  to.
• 17:21
  They
• 17:21
  should
• 17:22
  not
• 17:22
  hit
• 17:22
  oil
• 17:22
  facilities
• 17:23
  or
• 17:23
  pipelines
• 17:23
  or
• 17:23
  refineries
• 17:24
  and
• 17:24
  stuff
• 17:24
  like
• 17:24
  that.
• 17:25
  Oil
• 17:25
  prices
• 17:26
  started
• 17:26
  to
• 17:26
  come
• 17:26
  back
• 17:27
  down.
• 17:27
  And
• 17:27
  in
• 17:28
  this
• 17:28
  discussion,
• 17:29
  it,
• 17:30
  prior
• 17:30
  to
• 17:30
  the
• 17:30
  strikes,
• 17:31
  it
• 17:31
  was,
• 17:32
  it
• 17:32
  was
• 17:32
  announced
• 17:33
  that
• 17:33
  it
• 17:33
  had
• 17:33
  been
• 17:33
  agreed
• 17:34
  by
• 17:34
  the
• 17:34
  Israelis
• 17:34
  that
• 17:35
  they
• 17:35
  would
• 17:35
  not
• 17:35
  hit
• 17:35
  nuclear
• 17:36
  sites,
• 17:36
  nor
• 17:37
  would
• 17:37
  they
• 17:37
  hit
• 17:37
  oil
• 17:38
  pipelines,
• 17:39
  refineries,
• 17:39
  oil
• 17:40
  infrastructure
• 17:40
  as
• 17:41
  well.
• 17:42
  And
• 17:42
  so
• 17:42
  that
• 17:42
  appears
• 17:43
  to
• 17:43
  have
• 17:43
  been
• 17:43
  something
• 17:44
  that
• 17:44
  the
• 17:44
  US
• 17:44
  did
• 17:45
  not
• 17:45
  want
• 17:45
  to
• 17:45
  see
• 17:46
  hit,
• 17:47
  and
• 17:47
  the
• 17:47
  Israelis
• 17:48
  did
• 17:48
  not
• 17:48
  hit
• 17:48
  it.
• 17:49
  And
• 17:49
  I
• 17:49
  think
• 17:49
  the
• 17:49
  Israelis
• 17:50
  did
• 17:50
  that
• 17:50
  in
• 17:51
  order
• 17:51
  to
• 17:51
  pay
• 17:52
  some
• 17:52
  level
• 17:52
  of,
• 17:53
  of,
• 17:54
  I
• 17:55
  don't
• 17:55
  know
• 17:55
  if
• 17:55
  you
• 17:55
  want
• 17:55
  to
• 17:55
  say
• 17:55
  homage,
• 17:56
  but
• 17:56
  certainly
• 17:57
  some
• 17:57
  level
• 17:58
  of
• 17:58
  compliance
• 17:58
  with
• 17:59
  what
• 17:59
  the
• 17:59
  US
• 17:59
  wished
• 18:00
  to
• 18:01
  see
• 18:01
  with
• 18:01
  whatever
• 18:02
  Israel
• 18:02
  did.
• 18:03
  And
• 18:03
  so
• 18:03
  they
• 18:04
  did
• 18:04
  that.
• 18:04
  And
• 18:05
  I
• 18:05
  think
• 18:05
  that's
• 18:05
  kind
• 18:05
  of
• 18:06
  interesting
• 18:06
  to
• 18:06
  see
• 18:06
  that.
• 18:07
  Also,
• 18:07
  at
• 18:07
  the
• 18:07
  same
• 18:07
  time,
• 18:08
  the
• 18:08
  US
• 18:08
  is
• 18:08
  working
• 18:09
  on
• 18:09
  trying
• 18:09
  to
• 18:09
  get
• 18:09
  a
• 18:09
  ceasefire
• 18:10
  agreement
• 18:10
  in
• 18:10
  place
• 18:11
  in
• 18:11
  Gaza,
• 18:11
  is
• 18:12
  working
• 18:12
  on
• 18:12
  trying
• 18:12
  to
• 18:12
  get
• 18:12
  a
• 18:12
  ceasefire
• 18:13
  in
• 18:13
  place
• 18:15
  in
• 18:15
  Lebanon.
• 18:16
  So
• 18:16
  there's
• 18:16
  a
• 18:17
  lot
• 18:17
  of
• 18:17
  other
• 18:17
  externalities
• 18:18
  that
• 18:18
  the
• 18:19
  US
• 18:19
  is
• 18:19
  working
• 18:19
  on
• 18:20
  that
• 18:20
  would
• 18:20
  have
• 18:21
  been
• 18:21
  completely
• 18:21
  upended
• 18:22
  if
• 18:23
  Israel
• 18:23
  had
• 18:23
  gone
• 18:24
  into
• 18:24
  a
• 18:24
  big
• 18:25
  escalatory
• 18:26
  war,
• 18:27
  if
• 18:27
  you
• 18:27
  will,
• 18:27
  with
• 18:27
  Iran.
• 18:28
  And
• 18:29
  the
• 18:29
  reality
• 18:29
  is
• 18:29
  Iran
• 18:30
  does
• 18:30
  not
• 18:30
  want
• 18:30
  to
• 18:30
  go
• 18:30
  to
• 18:31
  war
• 18:31
  with
• 18:31
  Israel
• 18:31
  because
• 18:32
  at
• 18:32
  the
• 18:32
  end
• 18:32
  of
• 18:32
  the
• 18:32
  day,
• 18:32
  Iran
• 18:33
  cannot
• 18:33
  win
• 18:34
  a
• 18:34
  war
• 18:35
  against
• 18:35
  Israel.
• 18:36
  And
• 18:36
  the
• 18:36
  regime
• 18:36
  knows
• 18:36
  that.
• 18:37
  So
• 18:37
  the
• 18:37
  regime
• 18:38
  has
• 18:38
  done
• 18:38
  what
• 18:39
  they
• 18:39
  traditionally
• 18:40
  have
• 18:40
  done,
• 18:41
  which
• 18:41
  is
• 18:42
  they
• 18:42
  have
• 18:42
  focused
• 18:43
  on
• 18:43
  regime
• 18:43
  survival,
• 18:44
  which
• 18:44
  is
• 18:45
  live
• 18:45
  to
• 18:45
  fight
• 18:45
  another
• 18:46
  day.
• 18:46
  And
• 18:46
  so
• 18:47
  there's
• 18:47
  a
• 18:47
  lot
• 18:47
  of
• 18:47
  reason
• 18:47
  to
• 18:47
  believe
• 18:48
  that
• 18:48
  there
• 18:49
  really
• 18:49
  won't
• 18:49
  be
• 18:49
  much
• 18:50
  of
• 18:50
  a
• 18:50
  retaliation
• 18:51
  or
• 18:51
  response
• 18:52
  to
• 18:52
  what
• 18:52
  Israel
• 18:52
  just
• 18:53
  did.
• 18:53
  Although
• 18:56
  I
• 18:56
  don't
• 18:57
  want
• 18:57
  to
• 18:58
  second
• 18:58
  guess
• 19:00
  Ayatollah
• 19:00
  Khomeini's
• 19:01
  ability
• 19:02
  to
• 19:03
  never
• 19:03
  miss
• 19:03
  an
• 19:03
  opportunity.
• 19:04
  To
• 19:04
  miss
• 19:04
  an
• 19:05
  opportunity.
• 19:05
  And
• 19:06
  frankly,
• 19:06
  what
• 19:06
  I
• 19:06
  understand
• 19:07
  is
• 19:07
  that
• 19:07
  Khomeini
• 19:08
  overrode
• 19:10
  a
• 19:10
  number
• 19:10
  of
• 19:11
  his.
• 19:11
  Overrode
• 19:12
  the
• 19:12
  present
• 19:13
  of
• 19:13
  Iran
• 19:14
  and
• 19:14
  a
• 19:14
  number
• 19:14
  of
• 19:14
  other
• 19:15
  Senior
• 19:16
  officials
• 19:16
  there
• 19:16
  who
• 19:17
  said
• 19:18
  don't
• 19:18
  do
• 19:18
  the
• 19:18
  October
• 19:19
  1st
• 19:20
  strike.
• 19:20
  And
• 19:21
  he
• 19:21
  decided
• 19:21
  to
• 19:21
  do
• 19:21
  it
• 19:21
  anyway.
• 19:22
  And
• 19:22
  so
• 19:22
  whatever's
• 19:23
  happened,
• 19:24
  he
• 19:24
  kind
• 19:25
  of
• 19:25
  brought
• 19:25
  that
• 19:25
  on
• 19:25
  himself.
• 19:26
  Whether
• 19:26
  that
• 19:26
  will
• 19:26
  cause
• 19:27
  him
• 19:27
  internal
• 19:28
  political
• 19:28
  damage
• 19:29
  yet
• 19:30
  to
• 19:30
  be
• 19:30
  seen,
• 19:31
  I
• 19:31
  don't
• 19:31
  know.
• 19:32
  Now,
• 19:33
  the
• 19:33
  Israeli
• 19:34
  Defense
• 19:34
  Forces
• 19:35
  have
• 19:35
  said
• 19:35
  that
• 19:35
  this
• 19:36
  phase,
• 19:36
  this
• 19:37
  particular
• 19:37
  mission
• 19:38
  is
• 19:38
  complete.
• 19:39
  They're
• 19:39
  not
• 19:40
  looking
• 19:40
  at
• 19:40
  doing
• 19:40
  anything
• 19:41
  more.
• 19:41
  They
• 19:41
  have
• 19:41
  nothing.
• 19:42
  I'm
• 19:43
  sure
• 19:43
  they
• 19:43
  have
• 19:43
  stuff
• 19:44
  planned,
• 19:44
  but
• 19:45
  they're
• 19:45
  not
• 19:45
  saying
• 19:45
  that.
• 19:46
  They're,
• 19:46
  they're
• 19:46
  saying
• 19:46
  that
• 19:47
  this
• 19:47
  chapter
• 19:47
  is
• 19:47
  kind
• 19:47
  of
• 19:48
  closed.
• 19:49
  And
• 19:50
  although
• 19:50
  they
• 19:51
  say
• 19:51
  Israel
• 19:51
  is
• 19:51
  ready
• 19:51
  to
• 19:52
  respond,
• 19:52
  they've
• 19:52
  degraded
• 19:53
  Iranian
• 19:54
  air
• 19:54
  defenses
• 19:54
  to
• 19:54
  a
• 19:55
  great
• 19:55
  degree.
• 19:56
  Iran
• 19:56
  certainly
• 19:57
  has
• 19:57
  to
• 19:57
  recognize
• 19:58
  its
• 19:58
  vulnerability
• 19:58
  there.
• 19:59
  Iran
• 20:00
  has
• 20:00
  threatened
• 20:01
  to
• 20:01
  retaliate,
• 20:02
  but
• 20:02
  at
• 20:02
  the
• 20:02
  same
• 20:03
  time
• 20:04
  they're
• 20:04
  also
• 20:05
  saying
• 20:05
  publicly
• 20:06
  that
• 20:06
  the
• 20:06
  damage
• 20:07
  was
• 20:07
  inconsequential.
• 20:08
  It
• 20:08
  really
• 20:09
  didn't
• 20:09
  add
• 20:09
  up
• 20:09
  to
• 20:09
  much.
• 20:10
  And
• 20:11
  this
• 20:11
  is
• 20:11
  the
• 20:11
  type
• 20:11
  of
• 20:12
  language
• 20:13
  that
• 20:13
  you
• 20:13
  would
• 20:13
  hear
• 20:14
  from
• 20:14
  a
• 20:14
  country
• 20:15
  if
• 20:15
  they
• 20:15
  were
• 20:15
  trying
• 20:15
  to
• 20:16
  find
• 20:16
  some
• 20:16
  graceful
• 20:17
  face
• 20:18
  saving
• 20:18
  way
• 20:19
  of
• 20:19
  avoiding
• 20:20
  any
• 20:21
  big
• 20:21
  retaliation.
• 20:22
  So
• 20:23
  again,
• 20:23
  there's
• 20:23
  a
• 20:23
  lot
• 20:24
  to
• 20:24
  look
• 20:24
  at
• 20:24
  here
• 20:24
  which
• 20:25
  indicates
• 20:25
  that
• 20:25
  Iran
• 20:26
  may
• 20:26
  not
• 20:26
  do
• 20:27
  a
• 20:27
  big
• 20:27
  retaliatory
• 20:28
  strike.
• 20:29
  Now
• 20:29
  some
• 20:29
  other
• 20:30
  stuff
• 20:30
  that's
• 20:30
  going
• 20:31
  on
• 20:31
  in
• 20:31
  the
• 20:31
  news,
• 20:31
  the
• 20:32
  war
• 20:32
  in
• 20:32
  Ukraine
• 20:33
  cooking
• 20:33
  right
• 20:33
  along.
• 20:34
  The
• 20:34
  Russians
• 20:34
  are
• 20:34
  taking
• 20:35
  phenomenal
• 20:36
  losses,
• 20:37
  although
• 20:37
  they
• 20:37
  are
• 20:37
  making
• 20:38
  some
• 20:38
  small
• 20:38
  marginal
• 20:39
  gains
• 20:39
  in
• 20:40
  the
• 20:40
  eastern
• 20:40
  front,
• 20:41
  securing
• 20:41
  various
• 20:42
  small
• 20:42
  towns
• 20:43
  and
• 20:43
  villages
• 20:43
  incrementally.
• 20:45
  The
• 20:45
  Iranians
• 20:45
  are,
• 20:46
  I
• 20:46
  got
• 20:46
  to
• 20:46
  tell
• 20:46
  you,
• 20:47
  the
• 20:47
  Iranians
• 20:47
  have
• 20:48
  quite
• 20:48
  a
• 20:48
  bit
• 20:48
  of
• 20:48
  arms,
• 20:49
  not
• 20:49
  as
• 20:49
  much
• 20:49
  as
• 20:49
  they
• 20:50
  need.
• 20:50
  They
• 20:50
  could
• 20:50
  certainly
• 20:51
  use
• 20:51
  more
• 20:51
  of
• 20:51
  everything
• 20:52
  to
• 20:52
  include,
• 20:53
  especially
• 20:54
  artillery.
• 20:55
  The
• 20:55
  Iranians
• 20:55
  also
• 20:56
  need
• 20:56
  manpower.
• 20:57
  That
• 20:57
  is
• 20:57
  also
• 20:58
  a
• 20:58
  big
• 20:58
  problem.
• 20:59
  But
• 21:00
  the
• 21:00
  Russians
• 21:01
  need
• 21:01
  manpower.
• 21:03
  And
• 21:03
  something
• 21:03
  that
• 21:04
  popped
• 21:04
  up
• 21:04
  a
• 21:05
  couple,
• 21:05
  couple,
• 21:06
  three
• 21:06
  weeks
• 21:06
  ago
• 21:07
  was
• 21:07
  that
• 21:08
  they
• 21:08
  were
• 21:08
  using
• 21:09
  their
• 21:09
  strategic
• 21:11
  forces
• 21:12
  personnel.
• 21:13
  This
• 21:14
  is
• 21:14
  like
• 21:14
  their
• 21:14
  version
• 21:15
  of
• 21:16
  air
• 21:16
  force
• 21:18
  or
• 21:19
  space
• 21:19
  force
• 21:20
  personnel,
• 21:21
  highly
• 21:21
  trained
• 21:22
  operators
• 21:23
  doing
• 21:23
  things,
• 21:24
  working
• 21:24
  in
• 21:24
  like
• 21:24
  ballistic
• 21:25
  missiles
• 21:25
  and
• 21:26
  aircraft
• 21:26
  and
• 21:27
  stuff
• 21:27
  like
• 21:27
  that,
• 21:27
  bombers
• 21:28
  and
• 21:29
  using
• 21:29
  them
• 21:29
  as
• 21:29
  line
• 21:30
  infantry.
• 21:31
  And
• 21:31
  you
• 21:31
  don't
• 21:32
  do
• 21:32
  something
• 21:32
  like
• 21:33
  that
• 21:33
  unless
• 21:33
  you
• 21:34
  are
• 21:34
  absolutely
• 21:35
  desperate.
• 21:35
  I
• 21:35
  mean,
• 21:36
  even
• 21:37
  in
• 21:37
  a
• 21:37
  very
• 21:37
  tactical
• 21:38
  environment,
• 21:38
  when
• 21:38
  you,
• 21:39
  when
• 21:39
  you
• 21:39
  pull
• 21:40
  the,
• 21:41
  all
• 21:41
  the
• 21:41
  support
• 21:42
  personnel,
• 21:42
  you
• 21:43
  know,
• 21:43
  the
• 21:44
  cooks,
• 21:45
  the
• 21:45
  administrative
• 21:46
  clerks,
• 21:47
  the
• 21:47
  motor
• 21:48
  pool
• 21:48
  personnel
• 21:49
  and
• 21:49
  everything,
• 21:49
  and
• 21:49
  you
• 21:49
  put
• 21:49
  them
• 21:50
  on
• 21:50
  the
• 21:50
  line
• 21:51
  to
• 21:51
  fight.
• 21:51
  That's
• 21:52
  because
• 21:52
  you're
• 21:52
  in
• 21:52
  a
• 21:54
  last
• 21:54
  ditch
• 21:55
  effort
• 21:55
  and
• 21:55
  you're
• 21:56
  afraid
• 21:56
  that
• 21:56
  your
• 21:56
  lines
• 21:57
  are
• 21:57
  going
• 21:57
  to
• 21:57
  get
• 21:57
  overrun.
• 21:58
  Well,
• 21:58
  the
• 21:59
  Russians
• 21:59
  aren't
• 21:59
  quite
• 22:00
  there,
• 22:00
  but
• 22:00
  they
• 22:01
  are
• 22:01
  so
• 22:01
  short
• 22:01
  of
• 22:02
  personnel
• 22:02
  that
• 22:02
  they're
• 22:02
  doing
• 22:03
  this.
• 22:03
  And
• 22:03
  one
• 22:03
  of
• 22:03
  the
• 22:03
  problems
• 22:03
  the
• 22:04
  Russians
• 22:04
  have,
• 22:04
  and
• 22:04
  this
• 22:04
  is
• 22:05
  a
• 22:05
  problem
• 22:05
  that
• 22:05
  Putin
• 22:05
  has
• 22:06
  personally
• 22:07
  is
• 22:07
  he
• 22:07
  has
• 22:07
  sold
• 22:08
  this
• 22:08
  war
• 22:09
  as
• 22:09
  this,
• 22:09
  you
• 22:09
  know,
• 22:10
  special
• 22:11
  military
• 22:12
  operation.
• 22:13
  Or
• 22:13
  whatever
• 22:13
  it
• 22:13
  is
• 22:14
  that
• 22:14
  he
• 22:14
  sells
• 22:14
  it
• 22:14
  as,
• 22:15
  but
• 22:15
  he
• 22:15
  doesn't,
• 22:16
  he
• 22:16
  didn't
• 22:16
  like
• 22:16
  it
• 22:16
  for
• 22:17
  a
• 22:17
  long
• 22:17
  time.
• 22:17
  And
• 22:18
  there's
• 22:18
  been
• 22:18
  some
• 22:18
  times
• 22:19
  where
• 22:19
  they
• 22:19
  have
• 22:19
  called
• 22:19
  it
• 22:19
  an
• 22:20
  outright
• 22:20
  war.
• 22:21
  They
• 22:21
  have
• 22:21
  tried
• 22:21
  to
• 22:22
  avoid
• 22:22
  calling
• 22:22
  it
• 22:22
  a
• 22:23
  war
• 22:23
  to
• 22:23
  try
• 22:23
  and
• 22:24
  placate
• 22:26
  those
• 22:27
  urban
• 22:27
  populations
• 22:28
  around
• 22:28
  major
• 22:29
  centers
• 22:29
  like
• 22:30
  Moscow
• 22:31
  and
• 22:31
  St.
• 22:31
  Petersburg
• 22:33
  that
• 22:33
  potentially
• 22:34
  could
• 22:34
  pose
• 22:34
  a
• 22:35
  regime
• 22:35
  threat
• 22:36
  should
• 22:36
  they
• 22:36
  become
• 22:37
  enervated
• 22:38
  to
• 22:38
  go
• 22:38
  out
• 22:38
  there
• 22:39
  and,
• 22:40
  you
• 22:40
  know,
• 22:40
  try
• 22:40
  and
• 22:41
  overthrow
• 22:42
  Putin's
• 22:43
  government,
• 22:43
  you
• 22:43
  know,
• 22:43
  go
• 22:43
  to
• 22:43
  the
• 22:44
  streets
• 22:44
  and
• 22:44
  do
• 22:44
  things
• 22:44
  like
• 22:45
  they
• 22:45
  saw
• 22:45
  in
• 22:45
  1989
• 22:46
  or
• 22:46
  something
• 22:47
  like
• 22:47
  that.
• 22:47
  So,
• 22:48
  or
• 22:48
  not
• 22:49
  1999,
• 22:49
  but
• 22:50
  1990,
• 22:50
  well,
• 22:50
  1989,
• 22:51
  1991
• 22:51
  and
• 22:52
  eventually,
• 22:52
  of
• 22:52
  course,
• 22:52
  they
• 22:53
  were
• 22:53
  successful
• 22:54
  in
• 22:55
  overthrowing
• 22:55
  the
• 22:55
  Soviet
• 22:56
  Union.
• 22:56
  So
• 22:56
  he's
• 22:56
  very
• 22:57
  afraid
• 22:58
  of
• 22:58
  something
• 22:58
  like
• 22:58
  that.
• 22:59
  So
• 22:59
  he
• 22:59
  doesn't
• 22:59
  do
• 23:00
  this
• 23:00
  mass
• 23:02
  mobilization,
• 23:03
  if
• 23:03
  you
• 23:03
  will,
• 23:04
  bring
• 23:04
  in
• 23:04
  lots
• 23:04
  of
• 23:05
  troops.
• 23:05
  So
• 23:05
  he's
• 23:05
  trying
• 23:05
  to
• 23:06
  basically
• 23:06
  do
• 23:07
  stuff
• 23:07
  internally
• 23:08
  despite
• 23:09
  the
• 23:09
  long
• 23:09
  term
• 23:10
  consequences
• 23:10
  this
• 23:11
  has
• 23:11
  to
• 23:11
  Russia
• 23:12
  and
• 23:12
  it's,
• 23:13
  and
• 23:13
  Russia's
• 23:14
  defense
• 23:15
  complex,
• 23:15
  if
• 23:15
  you
• 23:15
  will.
• 23:16
  And
• 23:16
  of
• 23:16
  course,
• 23:17
  one
• 23:17
  of
• 23:17
  the
• 23:17
  things
• 23:18
  that
• 23:18
  happened,
• 23:18
  we
• 23:18
  started
• 23:19
  seeing
• 23:19
  about
• 23:19
  over
• 23:19
  a
• 23:19
  week
• 23:20
  ago
• 23:20
  was
• 23:20
  that
• 23:20
  North
• 23:21
  Korean
• 23:21
  troops
• 23:22
  were
• 23:22
  going
• 23:23
  into
• 23:23
  Russia
• 23:24
  and
• 23:24
  they
• 23:24
  were
• 23:24
  training
• 23:25
  in
• 23:25
  the,
• 23:26
  in
• 23:26
  the
• 23:26
  far
• 23:26
  east
• 23:26
  around
• 23:27
  places
• 23:27
  like
• 23:27
  Vladivostok.
• 23:29
  Well,
• 23:29
  those
• 23:30
  North
• 23:30
  Korean
• 23:30
  troops
• 23:31
  have
• 23:31
  shown
• 23:31
  up
• 23:32
  on
• 23:32
  the
• 23:32
  border
• 23:32
  with
• 23:32
  Ukraine.
• 23:34
  Ostensibly,
• 23:35
  everything
• 23:35
  I've
• 23:36
  seen
• 23:36
  sounds
• 23:36
  like
• 23:37
  they're
• 23:37
  in
• 23:37
  the
• 23:37
  Kursk
• 23:37
  Oblast.
• 23:38
  And
• 23:39
  that's
• 23:39
  the
• 23:39
  Kursk
• 23:39
  oblast
• 23:40
  or
• 23:40
  province
• 23:41
  is
• 23:42
  where
• 23:42
  the
• 23:42
  Ukrainians
• 23:43
  had
• 23:43
  actually
• 23:43
  made
• 23:43
  that
• 23:44
  incursion
• 23:44
  into
• 23:45
  Russian
• 23:45
  territory.
• 23:46
  So
• 23:47
  initially
• 23:47
  it
• 23:47
  appears
• 23:48
  that
• 23:48
  they're
• 23:48
  going
• 23:48
  to
• 23:48
  use
• 23:48
  the
• 23:49
  North
• 23:49
  Korean
• 23:50
  troops
• 23:51
  kind
• 23:51
  of
• 23:51
  like
• 23:51
  cannon
• 23:52
  fodder
• 23:53
  to
• 23:53
  fight
• 23:53
  the
• 23:53
  Ukrainians
• 23:54
  on
• 23:54
  Russian
• 23:55
  territory.
• 23:56
  And
• 23:56
  when
• 23:56
  it
• 23:56
  said
• 23:57
  Canafoder,
• 23:58
  there's
• 23:59
  a
• 23:59
  lot
• 23:59
  of
• 23:59
  assessments
• 24:00
  out
• 24:00
  there
• 24:00
  that
• 24:01
  these
• 24:01
  troops
• 24:01
  are
• 24:01
  in
• 24:02
  a
• 24:02
  lot
• 24:02
  of
• 24:02
  trouble.
• 24:02
  Now.
• 24:02
  They
• 24:02
  sense
• 24:03
  the
• 24:03
  special
• 24:03
  Operations,
• 24:04
  the
• 24:04
  Special
• 24:04
  forces
• 24:05
  the
• 24:06
  North
• 24:06
  Koreans
• 24:06
  did,
• 24:07
  those
• 24:08
  are
• 24:08
  far
• 24:08
  better
• 24:09
  trained,
• 24:09
  far
• 24:09
  better
• 24:10
  disciplined,
• 24:11
  and
• 24:11
  they
• 24:12
  potentially
• 24:13
  could
• 24:13
  cause
• 24:14
  quite
• 24:14
  a
• 24:14
  bit
• 24:14
  of
• 24:14
  havoc
• 24:15
  in
• 24:15
  the
• 24:15
  rear
• 24:16
  areas
• 24:16
  of
• 24:16
  the
• 24:16
  Ukrainian
• 24:18
  forces.
• 24:18
  And
• 24:19
  they're
• 24:19
  very
• 24:19
  much
• 24:19
  motivated,
• 24:20
  they're
• 24:21
  far,
• 24:22
  far
• 24:22
  more
• 24:22
  disciplined.
• 24:23
  Regular
• 24:24
  North
• 24:24
  Korean
• 24:25
  troops
• 24:26
  are
• 24:26
  malnourished,
• 24:27
  they're
• 24:28
  poorly
• 24:28
  trained,
• 24:29
  poorly
• 24:29
  equipped.
• 24:29
  One
• 24:30
  of
• 24:30
  the
• 24:30
  things
• 24:30
  the
• 24:30
  Russians
• 24:31
  have
• 24:31
  to
• 24:31
  do
• 24:31
  with
• 24:31
  all
• 24:31
  the
• 24:31
  North
• 24:32
  Korean
• 24:32
  troops
• 24:33
  is
• 24:33
  they
• 24:33
  issued
• 24:33
  them
• 24:34
  Russian
• 24:34
  uniforms,
• 24:35
  Russian
• 24:36
  equipment,
• 24:37
  they
• 24:37
  put
• 24:37
  them
• 24:38
  through
• 24:38
  some
• 24:38
  rudimentary
• 24:39
  tactical
• 24:40
  training.
• 24:41
  And
• 24:42
  when
• 24:42
  you
• 24:42
  look
• 24:42
  at
• 24:42
  the
• 24:43
  abbreviated
• 24:44
  time
• 24:44
  frame
• 24:44
  of
• 24:45
  that
• 24:45
  training,
• 24:46
  you
• 24:46
  have
• 24:46
  to
• 24:47
  assume
• 24:47
  from
• 24:48
  that
• 24:48
  that
• 24:48
  apparently
• 24:49
  North
• 24:49
  Korean
• 24:49
  troops
• 24:49
  were
• 24:50
  not
• 24:50
  very
• 24:50
  well
• 24:50
  trained
• 24:51
  at
• 24:51
  all,
• 24:51
  that
• 24:52
  they
• 24:52
  had
• 24:52
  to
• 24:52
  get
• 24:52
  some
• 24:52
  sort
• 24:53
  of
• 24:53
  tactical
• 24:53
  training
• 24:54
  for
• 24:54
  a
• 24:54
  week
• 24:54
  or
• 24:54
  two
• 24:55
  weeks
• 24:55
  and
• 24:55
  then
• 24:55
  they're
• 24:55
  sent
• 24:56
  straight
• 24:56
  to
• 24:56
  the
• 24:56
  Front.
• 24:57
  And
• 24:58
  so
• 24:58
  there's
• 24:58
  a
• 24:58
  very,
• 24:59
  very
• 24:59
  high
• 25:00
  likelihood
• 25:00
  that
• 25:01
  you
• 25:01
  could
• 25:01
  see
• 25:02
  these
• 25:02
  North
• 25:02
  Korean
• 25:03
  troops
• 25:04
  suffer
• 25:05
  extremely
• 25:06
  high
• 25:06
  attrition
• 25:07
  at
• 25:07
  the
• 25:08
  hands
• 25:08
  of
• 25:09
  what
• 25:09
  are
• 25:09
  truly
• 25:09
  battle
• 25:10
  hardened
• 25:10
  Ukrainian
• 25:11
  troops
• 25:12
  out
• 25:12
  there.
• 25:13
  But
• 25:13
  for
• 25:13
  Putin,
• 25:14
  I
• 25:14
  don't
• 25:14
  think
• 25:14
  he
• 25:14
  cares
• 25:15
  for
• 25:15
  Kim
• 25:15
  Jong
• 25:15
  Un,
• 25:16
  the
• 25:17
  dictator
• 25:17
  of
• 25:18
  North
• 25:18
  Korea,
• 25:18
  I
• 25:18
  don't
• 25:19
  think
• 25:19
  he
• 25:19
  cares
• 25:20
  about
• 25:21
  throwing
• 25:21
  these
• 25:22
  troops
• 25:22
  into
• 25:23
  a
• 25:23
  meat
• 25:23
  grinder
• 25:24
  and
• 25:25
  they
• 25:26
  never
• 25:26
  come
• 25:26
  back.
• 25:27
  I
• 25:27
  don't
• 25:27
  think
• 25:27
  either
• 25:28
  of
• 25:28
  them
• 25:28
  really
• 25:28
  care.
• 25:29
  Certainly
• 25:29
  Kim
• 25:30
  Jong
• 25:30
  Un's
• 25:31
  sees
• 25:31
  as
• 25:31
  a
• 25:31
  necessary
• 25:32
  sacrifice
• 25:32
  to
• 25:32
  get
• 25:33
  something
• 25:33
  in
• 25:33
  return
• 25:33
  from
• 25:34
  Russia,
• 25:35
  maybe
• 25:35
  technology,
• 25:36
  weapons,
• 25:36
  things
• 25:36
  like
• 25:37
  that.
• 25:37
  And
• 25:38
  certainly
• 25:38
  for
• 25:39
  Russia,
• 25:39
  they
• 25:39
  just
• 25:40
  see
• 25:40
  it
• 25:40
  as
• 25:40
  a
• 25:40
  way
• 25:40
  of
• 25:40
  avoiding
• 25:41
  a
• 25:42
  mobilization
• 25:42
  that
• 25:43
  could
• 25:43
  undermine
• 25:44
  Putin's
• 25:45
  support
• 25:45
  in
• 25:45
  these
• 25:46
  major
• 25:46
  urban
• 25:46
  areas.
• 25:46
  So
• 25:47
  that's,
• 25:47
  that's
• 25:48
  some
• 25:48
  of
• 25:48
  the
• 25:48
  stuff
• 25:48
  that's
• 25:48
  going
• 25:49
  on
• 25:49
  there.
• 25:50
  There's
• 25:51
  a
• 25:51
  lot
• 25:51
  more
• 25:51
  in
• 25:51
  the
• 25:52
  news
• 25:53
  happening
• 25:53
  across
• 25:54
  the
• 25:54
  board.
• 25:55
  Dark
• 25:55
  tankers,
• 25:56
  Russian
• 25:56
  tankers
• 25:57
  that
• 25:57
  are
• 25:58
  old,
• 25:59
  under,
• 25:59
  under
• 26:00
  third
• 26:00
  country
• 26:01
  flag
• 26:02
  are
• 26:02
  traversing
• 26:03
  some
• 26:04
  of
• 26:04
  the
• 26:04
  tightest
• 26:04
  waterways
• 26:05
  in
• 26:05
  the
• 26:05
  world
• 26:05
  without
• 26:06
  turning
• 26:06
  on
• 26:06
  their
• 26:06
  AIs
• 26:07
  identification
• 26:08
  system
• 26:09
  and
• 26:10
  causing,
• 26:10
  you
• 26:11
  know,
• 26:11
  potentially
• 26:12
  extreme
• 26:13
  danger
• 26:14
  and
• 26:14
  potentially
• 26:15
  a
• 26:15
  horrendous
• 26:16
  environmental
• 26:16
  disaster,
• 26:18
  especially
• 26:18
  as
• 26:18
  they
• 26:19
  operate
• 26:19
  in
• 26:19
  places
• 26:20
  in
• 26:20
  the,
• 26:20
  in
• 26:20
  the
• 26:21
  very
• 26:21
  closed
• 26:21
  waters
• 26:21
  of
• 26:21
  the
• 26:22
  Baltic,
• 26:23
  the
• 26:23
  very
• 26:23
  confined
• 26:24
  waters
• 26:24
  of
• 26:24
  the
• 26:24
  Danish
• 26:25
  Straits.
• 26:26
  And
• 26:26
  we're
• 26:26
  seeing
• 26:27
  that
• 26:27
  all
• 26:27
  over
• 26:27
  the
• 26:28
  place.
• 26:28
  And
• 26:28
  that
• 26:28
  is
• 26:28
  getting
• 26:29
  a
• 26:29
  lot
• 26:29
  more
• 26:29
  attention
• 26:30
  this
• 26:31
  week.
• 26:31
  And
• 26:31
  then
• 26:31
  the
• 26:31
  head
• 26:31
  of
• 26:32
  MI5
• 26:33
  had
• 26:33
  talked
• 26:34
  about
• 26:34
  publicly
• 26:35
  that
• 26:36
  the
• 26:36
  Russians
• 26:36
  are
• 26:36
  doing
• 26:37
  sabotage
• 26:38
  and
• 26:38
  things
• 26:38
  to
• 26:39
  undermine
• 26:39
  what's
• 26:40
  going
• 26:40
  on
• 26:40
  in
• 26:40
  Great
• 26:40
  Britain
• 26:41
  and
• 26:42
  basically
• 26:42
  talking
• 26:42
  what
• 26:43
  we
• 26:43
  describe
• 26:43
  as
• 26:44
  hybrid
• 26:44
  warfare,
• 26:45
  that
• 26:46
  sort
• 26:46
  of
• 26:46
  gray
• 26:46
  zone
• 26:47
  activity.
• 26:47
  It's
• 26:47
  not
• 26:48
  outright
• 26:48
  hostilities,
• 26:49
  but
• 26:50
  it
• 26:50
  does
• 26:50
  seem
• 26:51
  a
• 26:51
  lot
• 26:51
  like
• 26:51
  what,
• 26:52
  you
• 26:52
  know,
• 26:53
  certainly
• 26:53
  what
• 26:53
  we
• 26:53
  saw
• 26:53
  in
• 26:54
  World
• 26:54
  War
• 26:54
  II
• 26:54
  with
• 26:55
  the
• 26:55
  special
• 26:55
  Operations
• 26:56
  Executive
• 26:56
  and
• 26:57
  the
• 26:57
  Office
• 26:57
  of
• 26:57
  Strategic
• 26:58
  Services.
• 26:59
  You
• 26:59
  know,
• 26:59
  they
• 26:59
  would
• 26:59
  see
• 27:00
  themselves
• 27:00
  as
• 27:00
  going
• 27:01
  behind
• 27:01
  enemy
• 27:01
  lines
• 27:02
  and
• 27:02
  engaging
• 27:02
  in
• 27:03
  all
• 27:03
  sorts
• 27:03
  of
• 27:03
  stuff.
• 27:04
  And
• 27:04
  in
• 27:04
  more
• 27:05
  and
• 27:05
  more
• 27:05
  cases,
• 27:06
  we're
• 27:06
  finding
• 27:06
  that
• 27:06
  they
• 27:07
  actually
• 27:07
  hired
• 27:08
  criminals,
• 27:09
  basically
• 27:09
  hire
• 27:09
  a
• 27:10
  saboteur,
• 27:10
  if
• 27:10
  you
• 27:11
  will.
• 27:11
  They
• 27:11
  pay
• 27:12
  criminals
• 27:12
  to
• 27:12
  go
• 27:12
  and
• 27:13
  do
• 27:13
  some
• 27:13
  of
• 27:13
  these
• 27:13
  attacks
• 27:13
  on
• 27:14
  their
• 27:14
  behalf.
• 27:14
  So
• 27:15
  just
• 27:15
  a
• 27:15
  lot
• 27:16
  of
• 27:16
  things
• 27:16
  happening
• 27:17
  across
• 27:17
  the
• 27:17
  board.
• 27:17
  And
• 27:17
  then
• 27:18
  here
• 27:18
  in
• 27:18
  the
• 27:18
  US
• 27:19
  one
• 27:19
  of
• 27:19
  the
• 27:19
  more
• 27:20
  dynamic
• 27:20
  things,
• 27:20
  and
• 27:20
  I'll
• 27:21
  probably
• 27:21
  spend
• 27:21
  more
• 27:21
  time
• 27:22
  on
• 27:22
  this,
• 27:22
  maybe
• 27:22
  next
• 27:23
  weekend
• 27:23
  or
• 27:24
  next
• 27:24
  week
• 27:25
  when
• 27:25
  I,
• 27:25
  when
• 27:25
  I
• 27:25
  do
• 27:25
  my
• 27:26
  podcast,
• 27:27
  and
• 27:27
  that
• 27:27
  is
• 27:28
  Chinese,
• 27:29
  Iranian
• 27:30
  and
• 27:31
  Russian
• 27:32
  interference
• 27:33
  with
• 27:33
  the
• 27:34
  U.S.
• 27:34
  election.
• 27:35
  And
• 27:36
  it
• 27:36
  is,
• 27:36
  it
• 27:36
  is
• 27:37
  rather
• 27:37
  fascinating.
• 27:37
  All
• 27:38
  sorts
• 27:38
  of
• 27:38
  things,
• 27:38
  you
• 27:38
  know,
• 27:39
  certainly
• 27:39
  using
• 27:39
  AI,
• 27:41
  deep
• 27:41
  fakes,
• 27:42
  fake
• 27:42
  email
• 27:43
  addresses,
• 27:44
  all
• 27:44
  the
• 27:44
  things
• 27:44
  that
• 27:45
  they
• 27:45
  do
• 27:45
  to
• 27:45
  rev
• 27:46
  things
• 27:46
  up,
• 27:47
  to
• 27:47
  cause
• 27:48
  a
• 27:48
  viral,
• 27:49
  putting
• 27:49
  out
• 27:49
  a
• 27:50
  false
• 27:50
  information
• 27:51
  or,
• 27:52
  you
• 27:52
  know,
• 27:53
  fake
• 27:53
  news,
• 27:53
  if
• 27:54
  you
• 27:54
  will,
• 27:54
  across
• 27:54
  the
• 27:55
  board.
• 27:55
  And
• 27:55
  certainly
• 27:56
  all
• 27:56
  Those
• 27:56
  tricks
• 27:57
  of
• 27:57
  the
• 27:57
  trade
• 27:58
  that
• 27:58
  go
• 27:59
  back
• 27:59
  way
• 27:59
  back
• 27:59
  when.
• 27:59
  They're
• 27:59
  much,
• 28:00
  much
• 28:00
  more
• 28:00
  sophisticated
• 28:01
  than
• 28:01
  they
• 28:01
  ever
• 28:01
  were.
• 28:02
  Certainly
• 28:02
  much,
• 28:02
  much
• 28:02
  more
• 28:03
  sophisticated
• 28:03
  than
• 28:03
  they
• 28:03
  were,
• 28:04
  say
• 28:04
  back
• 28:04
  in
• 28:04
  2015
• 28:05
  and
• 28:06
  16
• 28:06
  when
• 28:07
  this
• 28:07
  first
• 28:07
  came
• 28:07
  to
• 28:07
  public
• 28:08
  notice.
• 28:08
  But
• 28:09
  one
• 28:09
  of
• 28:09
  the
• 28:09
  things
• 28:09
  I
• 28:09
  would
• 28:10
  point
• 28:10
  out
• 28:10
  with
• 28:10
  this
• 28:11
  is
• 28:12
  Russia
• 28:12
  and
• 28:13
  Iran
• 28:14
  would
• 28:14
  very
• 28:14
  much
• 28:15
  like
• 28:15
  to.
• 28:15
  Or
• 28:16
  Russia,
• 28:16
  Russia
• 28:17
  and
• 28:17
  Iran
• 28:17
  would
• 28:18
  very.
• 28:18
  Well,
• 28:19
  Russia,
• 28:19
  I
• 28:19
  should
• 28:20
  say,
• 28:21
  would
• 28:21
  very
• 28:21
  much
• 28:22
  like
• 28:22
  to
• 28:22
  see
• 28:22
  Trump
• 28:23
  reelected.
• 28:24
  It's
• 28:24
  not
• 28:24
  a
• 28:25
  political
• 28:25
  opinion.
• 28:25
  That's
• 28:26
  just
• 28:26
  what
• 28:26
  everything's
• 28:27
  reporting
• 28:27
  is
• 28:27
  that
• 28:28
  they've
• 28:28
  been
• 28:28
  doing
• 28:28
  stuff
• 28:29
  that
• 28:29
  supports
• 28:30
  Trump.
• 28:30
  Ironically,
• 28:31
  Iran
• 28:32
  and
• 28:33
  China
• 28:34
  do
• 28:34
  not
• 28:34
  want
• 28:34
  to
• 28:35
  see
• 28:35
  Trump
• 28:35
  get
• 28:35
  elected.
• 28:36
  So
• 28:37
  they've
• 28:37
  been
• 28:37
  doing
• 28:38
  all
• 28:38
  this
• 28:38
  covert
• 28:38
  activity
• 28:39
  to
• 28:40
  try
• 28:40
  and
• 28:40
  stop
• 28:40
  Trump
• 28:41
  from
• 28:41
  getting
• 28:41
  elected.
• 28:41
  They've
• 28:41
  been
• 28:42
  actually
• 28:42
  kind
• 28:42
  of
• 28:43
  trying
• 28:43
  to
• 28:43
  subtly
• 28:44
  push
• 28:44
  Harris
• 28:45
  and
• 28:45
  waltz
• 28:46
  in
• 28:46
  getting
• 28:47
  elected
• 28:47
  for
• 28:48
  president.
• 28:48
  And
• 28:48
  I
• 28:48
  just
• 28:49
  find
• 28:49
  it
• 28:49
  fascinating
• 28:49
  because
• 28:50
  as
• 28:50
  you
• 28:50
  know,
• 28:50
  Russia
• 28:51
  and
• 28:51
  Russia
• 28:52
  and
• 28:52
  Iran
• 28:52
  are
• 28:53
  close
• 28:54
  allies
• 28:55
  meeting
• 28:55
  all
• 28:55
  the
• 28:55
  time,
• 28:56
  you
• 28:56
  know,
• 28:56
  lots
• 28:56
  of
• 28:57
  support
• 28:57
  back
• 28:57
  and
• 28:57
  forth.
• 28:58
  Russia
• 28:59
  and
• 28:59
  China
• 29:00
  have
• 29:00
  a
• 29:00
  relationship
• 29:00
  or
• 29:01
  friendship
• 29:01
  that
• 29:01
  knows
• 29:01
  no
• 29:02
  bounds
• 29:02
  or
• 29:02
  whatever.
• 29:03
  And
• 29:04
  yet
• 29:04
  if
• 29:04
  you
• 29:04
  look
• 29:04
  at
• 29:05
  why
• 29:05
  they're
• 29:05
  doing
• 29:05
  what
• 29:05
  they're
• 29:06
  doing,
• 29:06
  it's
• 29:06
  to
• 29:06
  oppose
• 29:06
  the
• 29:07
  West.
• 29:07
  The
• 29:07
  center
• 29:07
  of
• 29:07
  the
• 29:08
  west
• 29:08
  that
• 29:08
  they're
• 29:08
  trying
• 29:08
  to
• 29:09
  oppose
• 29:10
  is
• 29:10
  the
• 29:10
  United
• 29:11
  States.
• 29:12
  And
• 29:12
  they're
• 29:12
  trying
• 29:12
  to
• 29:12
  do
• 29:13
  all
• 29:13
  this
• 29:13
  underhanded
• 29:14
  subterfuge
• 29:15
  stuff
• 29:15
  to
• 29:16
  do
• 29:16
  this.
• 29:17
  Yet
• 29:17
  they
• 29:17
  are
• 29:17
  operating
• 29:18
  in
• 29:18
  completely
• 29:19
  opposite
• 29:19
  directions
• 29:20
  in
• 29:21
  terms
• 29:21
  of
• 29:21
  what
• 29:21
  they're
• 29:21
  doing.
• 29:22
  And
• 29:22
  I
• 29:22
  just
• 29:22
  find
• 29:22
  this
• 29:23
  to
• 29:23
  be
• 29:23
  a
• 29:23
  fascinating
• 29:24
  development.
• 29:24
  We'll
• 29:24
  see
• 29:25
  what
• 29:25
  happens.
• 29:25
  One
• 29:26
  thing
• 29:26
  I
• 29:26
  will
• 29:26
  say
• 29:26
  is
• 29:26
  we're
• 29:26
  a
• 29:27
  heck
• 29:27
  of
• 29:27
  a
• 29:27
  lot
• 29:27
  more
• 29:27
  sophisticated
• 29:28
  picking
• 29:28
  up
• 29:28
  on
• 29:28
  this
• 29:29
  stuff
• 29:29
  than
• 29:30
  we,
• 29:30
  we've
• 29:30
  ever
• 29:31
  been
• 29:31
  in
• 29:31
  the
• 29:31
  past.
• 29:31
  So
• 29:31
  when
• 29:32
  it
• 29:32
  does
• 29:32
  come
• 29:32
  out,
• 29:32
  it's
• 29:33
  not
• 29:33
  like
• 29:33
  we
• 29:33
  waited
• 29:34
  forever
• 29:34
  and
• 29:34
  it's
• 29:34
  revealed.
• 29:35
  It
• 29:35
  is
• 29:36
  revealed.
• 29:36
  Hey,
• 29:37
  I
• 29:37
  have
• 29:37
  covered
• 29:38
  a
• 29:38
  lot
• 29:38
  of
• 29:38
  ground.
• 29:39
  Literally.
• 29:40
  We
• 29:40
  have
• 29:40
  traveled
• 29:41
  around
• 29:41
  a
• 29:41
  good
• 29:41
  chunk
• 29:41
  of
• 29:42
  the,
• 29:42
  I
• 29:42
  think
• 29:42
  pretty
• 29:42
  much
• 29:43
  the
• 29:43
  entire
• 29:43
  world
• 29:44
  at
• 29:44
  this
• 29:44
  point,
• 29:45
  from
• 29:45
  the
• 29:46
  Middle
• 29:46
  east
• 29:47
  to
• 29:47
  Europe
• 29:47
  to
• 29:48
  Asia
• 29:49
  to
• 29:49
  the
• 29:49
  United
• 29:50
  States,
• 29:50
  North
• 29:50
  America.
• 29:51
  I
• 29:51
  think
• 29:51
  that's
• 29:52
  pretty
• 29:52
  much
• 29:52
  globetrotting
• 29:53
  or
• 29:54
  globe
• 29:54
  spanning
• 29:54
  discussion.
• 29:55
  I
• 29:55
  really
• 29:56
  do
• 29:56
  hope
• 29:56
  you've
• 29:56
  enjoyed
• 29:57
  this
• 29:57
  discussion.
• 29:58
  You
• 29:58
  know,
• 29:58
  this
• 29:58
  is,
• 29:59
  this
• 29:59
  is
• 29:59
  really
• 29:59
  talking
• 30:00
  about
• 30:00
  strategic
• 30:01
  risk
• 30:02
  and
• 30:02
  it's
• 30:02
  really,
• 30:03
  it's
• 30:03
  a
• 30:03
  strategic
• 30:04
  risk
• 30:04
  assessment
• 30:06
  discussion
• 30:07
  or
• 30:07
  talk,
• 30:08
  hence
• 30:09
  the
• 30:09
  term
• 30:09
  strat.
• 30:10
  And
• 30:11
  that's
• 30:11
  what
• 30:11
  this
• 30:11
  is
• 30:11
  all
• 30:11
  about,
• 30:12
  is
• 30:12
  to
• 30:12
  dig
• 30:12
  beneath
• 30:13
  the
• 30:13
  headlines,
• 30:14
  to
• 30:14
  get
• 30:14
  a
• 30:14
  little
• 30:14
  bit
• 30:15
  more
• 30:15
  or
• 30:15
  a
• 30:15
  lot
• 30:15
  more
• 30:16
  in
• 30:16
  depth
• 30:17
  as
• 30:17
  to
• 30:17
  what's
• 30:17
  going
• 30:17
  on
• 30:18
  and
• 30:19
  try
• 30:19
  to
• 30:19
  overcome
• 30:19
  some
• 30:20
  of
• 30:20
  the
• 30:20
  things
• 30:20
  we
• 30:20
  see
• 30:20
  in
• 30:20
  the
• 30:21
  news.
• 30:21
  I
• 30:21
  should
• 30:21
  mention,
• 30:22
  you
• 30:22
  know,
• 30:22
  I'm
• 30:22
  on
• 30:22
  a
• 30:23
  number
• 30:23
  of
• 30:23
  news
• 30:23
  outlets,
• 30:24
  I'm
• 30:24
  on
• 30:25
  almost
• 30:25
  daily
• 30:26
  on
• 30:26
  fox's
• 30:27
  Live
• 30:28
  now
• 30:28
  streaming
• 30:28
  news
• 30:29
  network.
• 30:29
  I'm
• 30:30
  on
• 30:30
  regularly
• 30:31
  with
• 30:31
  News
• 30:31
  Nation
• 30:32
  and
• 30:32
  a
• 30:33
  number
• 30:33
  of
• 30:33
  other
• 30:33
  local
• 30:34
  stations,
• 30:35
  television
• 30:35
  and
• 30:35
  radio.
• 30:36
  And
• 30:37
  certainly
• 30:37
  a
• 30:37
  lot
• 30:37
  of
• 30:37
  people
• 30:38
  think
• 30:38
  that
• 30:38
  I
• 30:39
  do
• 30:39
  have
• 30:39
  a
• 30:39
  face
• 30:39
  for
• 30:40
  radio.
• 30:41
  But
• 30:41
  with
• 30:41
  that,
• 30:42
  this
• 30:42
  is
• 30:42
  a
• 30:42
  way
• 30:43
  to
• 30:43
  kind
• 30:43
  of
• 30:43
  get
• 30:43
  beyond
• 30:44
  some
• 30:44
  of
• 30:44
  the
• 30:45
  wave
• 30:45
  top
• 30:45
  stuff
• 30:46
  you
• 30:46
  sometimes
• 30:46
  see
• 30:46
  in
• 30:46
  the
• 30:47
  broadcast
• 30:47
  news
• 30:48
  and
• 30:48
  to
• 30:48
  get
• 30:48
  more
• 30:48
  in
• 30:48
  depth.
• 30:49
  So
• 30:49
  I
• 30:49
  hope
• 30:49
  you
• 30:49
  stay
• 30:49
  tuned.
• 30:50
  I
• 30:50
  hope
• 30:50
  you
• 30:50
  tell
• 30:50
  all
• 30:51
  your
• 30:51
  friends,
• 30:52
  family,
• 30:53
  colleagues,
• 30:54
  anyone,
• 30:54
  to
• 30:55
  take
• 30:55
  a
• 30:55
  little
• 30:55
  time,
• 30:55
  maybe
• 30:56
  listen
• 30:56
  to
• 30:56
  this,
• 30:57
  those
• 30:57
  who
• 30:57
  would
• 30:57
  be
• 30:57
  interested.
• 30:58
  And
• 30:59
  I
• 30:59
  hope
• 30:59
  you
• 30:59
  found
• 30:59
  this
• 31:00
  very
• 31:00
  valuable
• 31:00
  use
• 31:01
  of
• 31:01
  your
• 31:01
  time.
• 31:01
  Thank
• 31:02
  you.
• 31:02
  Strat
• 31:03
  where
• 31:03
  global
• 31:04
  friends
• 31:04
  unfold
• 31:05
  with
• 31:05
  how
• 31:05
  temperate
• 31:06
  braving
• 31:06
  stories
• 31:07
  bold
• 31:07
  from
• 31:07
  espionage
• 31:08
  to
• 31:09
  economic
• 31:09
  might
• 31:10
  gain
• 31:10
  perspective
• 31:11
  see
• 31:11
  the
• 31:12
  light.
• 31:13
  Every
• 31:13
  week
• 31:14
  across
• 31:14
  the
• 31:15
  globe
• 31:15
  we
• 31:15
  spin
• 31:16
  decoding
• 31:17
  gray
• 31:17
  zones
• 31:18
  where
• 31:19
  battles
• 31:19
  often
• 31:20
  begin.