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College Football Predictions for All 9 Conference Championship Games! · Winning Cures Everything | College Football

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: On a day's show, We're going over all nine conference
• 0:03
  Speaker 1: championship games for the twenty twenty five college football season.
• 0:07
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  Speaker 5: I've been thinking we need to talk to him about it.
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  Speaker 6: a time as any. Okay, I'll give it a go
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• 1:10
  Speaker 1: Welcome in Winning Cures Everything. It's a college football podcast.
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: I'm your host, Gary Siegers at Gary WCE on all
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: the different socials, and we are going to go over
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: all nine conference championship games for this weekend. We got
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: four games on Friday night, we got five games on Saturday,
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  Speaker 1: and they are some monster monster matchups. Let me go
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: ahead and tell you subscribe to the channel like the
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: video of course, jump in the comments. I want to
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: know your picks on these games. And of course you
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: want to be a member of the community. Sign up
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: over at buy me a Coffee dot com slash Winning Cures.
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: That's where you get all of these stat spreadsheets and whatnot.
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: But let's not waste time. Let's get to it. Game
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: number one, Friday night, six pm Central time, God's time zone,
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: of course, on the CBS Sports Network, the Conference USA title,
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: Kennesaw State going over to Jacksonville State in Kennesaw. Currently
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: a two and a half point favorite total of fifty
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  Speaker 1: nine and a half. Jacksonville State won the earlier matchup.
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: A lot of these are rematches, and we've got one here.
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: This one, of course, the rematch of a game that
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: happened in Jacksonville and jack State won at thirty five
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  Speaker 1: to twenty six, and you can certainly understand why they
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: would have won that game. Looking at the numbers. Of course,
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: power rating of got Jacksonville State by point one. The
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: projected stat spread has Jacksonville State by point six eight.
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  Speaker 1: The last four weeks numbers would have KINNESSAUW favored by
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  Speaker 1: four point six two, which is why that number is
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: now out to KENNESSAUW minus two and a half. Jack
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: State opened as a one and a half point favorite,
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  Speaker 1: or at least that's the earliest number that I got
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  Speaker 1: with a total of fifty eight and a half. It's
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  Speaker 1: up to fifty nine and a half now, so we're
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  Speaker 1: expecting some points in this game. Certainly, the reason why
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  Speaker 1: jack State eight might have an advantage here would be
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  Speaker 1: their running game and the fact that Knnessau State can't
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  Speaker 1: stop the run. Number nineteen in PPA per rush for
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  Speaker 1: jack State's offense, number eighty six for Knnessau State's defense.
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  Speaker 1: Both of these teams outside the top one hundred as
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  Speaker 1: far as special teams efficiency, both of them outside the
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  Speaker 1: top one hundred as far as overall talent rank. So
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  Speaker 1: that's totally normal for a Conference USA game. Looking at
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  Speaker 1: the five factors rank jack State number sixty two, Kennessau
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  Speaker 1: number sixty five. I mean, these two teams are very
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  Speaker 1: very similar. But when it comes to just the random
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  Speaker 1: stuff that wins you ball games, Jack State is number
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  Speaker 1: thirteen in turnover margin, number fifty in pennlies per game.
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  Speaker 1: Kennesaw number eighty in turnover margin, number one twenty six
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  Speaker 1: in pennlues per game. Those are pretty important things, is
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  Speaker 1: what it is. You can get into the actual five
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  Speaker 1: factors and why they're so close. Kennesaw much better as
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  Speaker 1: far as average field position. They're pretty good as far
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  Speaker 1: as creating havoc on defense and not allowing it on offense.
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  Speaker 1: There are reasons why Kennesaw is nine to three this season.
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  Speaker 1: One of it has to do with their passing attack.
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  Speaker 1: They are number forty in passing success rate, number forty
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  Speaker 1: two in PPA per pass. The jack State defense is
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  Speaker 1: number eighty in PPA allowed per pass. That's predicted points added.
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  Speaker 1: Who can finish drives here? Jack State number forty eight
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  Speaker 1: points per scoring opportunity. That's when you get a first
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  Speaker 1: down inside of the opponent's forty How many points do
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  Speaker 1: you score on average on those drives? Kennesau State's defense
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  Speaker 1: is number seventy four. On the other side, Kennesaw State
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  Speaker 1: number one eleven in points per scoring opportunity, and this
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  Speaker 1: right here will tell you a little bit about that
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  Speaker 1: number ninety in offensive red zone conversion percentage. But jack
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  Speaker 1: State's defense they don't give up a lot of scoring
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  Speaker 1: opportunities per game, but they are number one hundred in
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  Speaker 1: point's allowed per scoring opportunity. So who takes advantage of who?
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  Speaker 7: Here?
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  Speaker 1: Jack State is better at finishing drives, Kennesaw State's defense
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  Speaker 1: is not very good at stopping it, but also Kinnessas
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  Speaker 1: State not very good at finishing drives, and jack State's
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  Speaker 1: defense is not good at stopping it either, So who
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  Speaker 1: takes advantage there? I think the team that you can
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  Speaker 1: trust more is the team that can run the ball,
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  Speaker 1: that can hold on to the football because they don't
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  Speaker 1: turn it over very often. I think Jacksonville State is
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  Speaker 1: gonna win another Conference USA championship. So I think Charles
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  Speaker 1: Kelly has done a really good job here. Yeah, Kennessall's
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  Speaker 1: got some flash and whatnot, but this is a big
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  Speaker 1: line move and I think I trust jack State to
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  Speaker 1: get it done. So give me Jack State plus the
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: two and a half. The Sun Belt Championship six pm
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  Speaker 1: Central time, this one on ESPN. Troy is headed to
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: James Madison and yes, James Madison's coach headed off to UCLA,
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: but he will be here for this game. And they
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  Speaker 1: just got ranked in the College Football Playoff top twenty five.
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: So if Duke beats Virginia, there is a shot James
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  Speaker 1: Madison will end up in the playoff. The last meeting
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  Speaker 1: between these two teams sixteen to fourteen. James Madison win
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  Speaker 1: back in twenty twenty three. But boy, that was a
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: It feels like a lifetime ago. That was John sumrawl
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  Speaker 1: against Kurt Signetty. Pretty wild, huh. James Madison won that
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  Speaker 1: game sixteen to fourteen. Now, James Madison is a twenty
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  Speaker 1: three and a half point home favorite with a total
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  Speaker 1: of forty seven and a half. James Madison has been
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  Speaker 1: absolutely rolling teams five and one against the spread at
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  Speaker 1: home plus nine point three. Now, or excuse me, excuse me,
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  Speaker 1: James Madison four and two against the spread at home
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  Speaker 1: plus nine point six. Troy is five and one against
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  Speaker 1: the spread on the road plus nine point three. And yes,
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  Speaker 1: even though they have these horrible numbers three PPA margin
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  Speaker 1: to James Madison's eight number one oh one offensive PPA
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  Speaker 1: per drive predicted points added per drive, James Madison's defense
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  Speaker 1: number six. It's kind of difficult to see where Troy
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  Speaker 1: is going to have success here. Their defense is okay,
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  Speaker 1: number fifty six, and defensive success right number fifty eight
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  Speaker 1: and ppa per drive allowed. They're not great against the run.
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  Speaker 1: They're okay. They're number fifty four in rushing success allowed,
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  Speaker 1: but they are number eighty nine in yards allowed per rush.
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  Speaker 1: James Madison's offense is number fifteen. As far as being
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  Speaker 1: able to stop the other team from scoring, Troy number
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  Speaker 1: twenty nine in points allowed per scoring opportunity, James Madison
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  Speaker 1: number forty six. Now, the difference between these two is
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: the fact that Troy is number ninety in scoring opportunities
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  Speaker 1: allowed per game. That's a first down inside of the opponent forty.
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  Speaker 1: James Madison number three in scoring opportunities opportunities per game.
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  Speaker 1: So James Madison's gonna get down there a lot. They'll
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  Speaker 1: find ways to score. Most certainly you look at turnover margin.
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  Speaker 1: Both are number seventy. James Madison a little bit better.
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  Speaker 1: As far as holding onto the football Jmu number one
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  Speaker 1: oh six, and penalties per game, Troy is number fifty seven.
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  Speaker 1: This Troy offense is just abysmal. They can't run the football.
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  Speaker 1: They're okay throwing it, but number one twenty six in
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  Speaker 1: ppa per rush. They're just not gonna have success at
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  Speaker 1: all running on this defense. Troy number one fourteen of
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  Speaker 1: rushing success rate, number one thirty in yards per rush
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  Speaker 1: James Madison number four and number two in those two stats.
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  Speaker 1: On defense. As far as finishing drives, Troy number sixty
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  Speaker 1: one in points per scoring opportunity James Madison number thirty six.
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  Speaker 1: So if Troy gets down there, they I'll probably be
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: able to kick some phil Wolves something along those lines.
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  Speaker 1: The issue is that Troy is number one nineteen scoring
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  Speaker 1: opportunities per game, James Madison number three at preventing them.
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  Speaker 1: So I don't know how often Troy is actually going
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  Speaker 1: to get down there, and that's why this line has
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  Speaker 1: gone from twenty one and a half up to twenty
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  Speaker 1: three and a half. But you gotta wonder, like, are
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  Speaker 1: these kids from James Madison, are they going to play
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  Speaker 1: for Bob Chesney or are they maybe a little distracted?
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  Speaker 1: Is there you know, I thought at some point over
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: the past few weeks that they would slow down, and
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  Speaker 1: they haven't. This still feels like way too many points.
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  Speaker 1: Because I've got James Madison by seventeen point eighty six.
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  Speaker 1: My power rating only has them by two touchdowns. My
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  Speaker 1: last four weeks has them by a little less than
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  Speaker 1: twenty points. And this thing's out to twenty three and
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  Speaker 1: a half because James Madison has been just blowing teams
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  Speaker 1: out of the water. Even still with all the stuff
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  Speaker 1: that's going on with Chesney taking another job, the playoff stuff,
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  Speaker 1: et cetera. I think Troy can hang around here. I
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: don't know that I expect them to stay within three touchdowns,
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  Speaker 1: but stay within twenty three and a half. I would
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  Speaker 1: take a shot on that because the number just feels
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  Speaker 1: like it's gotten too big. So I will trust my
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: number here. We'll take Troy Troy plus twenty three and
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• 12:25
  Speaker 1: The American Conference Championship seven pm Central Time Friday night
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: on ABC, the two lane Green Wave are hosting the
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: North Texas Mean Green, so a lot of green going
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: on in the stadium. North Texas currently a two and
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  Speaker 1: a half point road favorite total of sixty six and
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  Speaker 1: a half on this The last meeting between these two
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  Speaker 1: teams was last year twenty twenty four, two Lane one
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: forty five to thirty seven. And this is an interesting
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: spot because South Florida absolutely blew the breaks off in
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: North Texas in the biggest game of their season, and
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: North Texas really didn't play anybody after that. North Texas
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  Speaker 1: number one twenty five in current strength of schedule to
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  Speaker 1: lane number seventy eight, but two lane two three and
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: one against the spread at home, they're just six five
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: and one against the spread so far this season. North
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: Texas four and one against the spread on the road
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: plus five point eight, and they are ten to two
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: against the spread thus far this season. Overall, they are
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: blowing numbers out of the water. North Texas number ten
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  Speaker 1: and ppa margin two lane number forty nine, and a
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: lot of this has to do with Eric Morris's offense.
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: Both of these coaches, by the way, headed off to
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: take better jobs. Saying better jobs sounds bad. Eric Morris
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: is going to take the Oklahoma State job and John
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: summerl is taking the Florida job. Different levels obviously, but
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: Eric Morris pretty good football coach, knows how to coach
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: quarterbacks for sure. This thing was three on Sunday, it
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: has gone down to two and a half. And my
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: issue with this because all of the numbers would say
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: that you got to take you got to take two lane.
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: As the home team, they match up better right as
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: far as the defensive line for two lane goes. We
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: saw North Texas against South Florida, who had better athletes,
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: and South Florida just destroyed them. I think that might
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: really be the only time this year the North Texas
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: has played a team that just can dominate them at
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: the line of scrimmage. Two lanes offensive line though, is eh,
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: not great, and North Texas not a great defense at all,
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: but good enough. They can slow down opposing teams and
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: that is certainly something to pay attention to. The two
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: lane offense is interesting. Number seventy four in Ppapril Rush,
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: number twenty nine in ppapri pass but they only throw
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: the ball forty six and a half percent of the
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: time the number thirty eight and passing success rate number
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: thirty nine and passing explosiveness. North Texas really good against
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: the pass. But North Texas cannot stop the run. So
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: if Tulane can get the running game going, which their
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: number seventy one and rushing success rate North Texas, their
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: defense is number one eleven in rushing success allowed, Twu
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: lane can keep the ball away from them and you know,
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: make them work a little bit as far as finishing drives.
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: Twu Lane is number fifty two in points per scoring opportunity,
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: North Texas number ninety five on defense. On the other side,
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: there we go North Texas number one in point points
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: per scoring opportunity to lane, number sixty three in points
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: allowed per scoring opportunity North Texas number seven and five
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: factors rank to lane is number thirty five. This is
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: a different level than what Tu Lane is used to.
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: Utsa came out and did some similar stuff to what
• 16:06
  Speaker 1: North Texas will do, and Utsa ran them out of
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: the building. Ole Miss threw the foo all around a
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: little bit. Beat two Lane thirty eight to three. Now
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: that's a different level of athlete and whatnot. I agree,
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: but there's something about this North Texas offense. They've known
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: for weeks that their coach's gone. John Summral was in
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: Gainesville on Tuesday or on Monday, and now he's supposed
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: to be preparing for this North Texas offense. I saw
• 16:41
  Speaker 1: this last year with John Somerall, and they just fell apart.
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: At the end of the season. They beat Charlotte twenty
• 16:50
  Speaker 1: seven to nothing. Two Lane did, but I don't feel
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: like they looked great doing it. You know. I went
• 16:57
  Speaker 1: back and watched on my ESPN app and was able to,
• 17:03
  Speaker 1: you know, kind of watch through see the key plays,
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: and there wasn't really anything super impressive about TWU Lane.
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: But their lines of scrimmage when they want to can
• 17:15
  Speaker 1: be pretty devastating. The question is do they want to
• 17:18
  Speaker 1: at this point? And I don't know North Texas. I
• 17:22
  Speaker 1: know that they have been smoking teams. That offense is
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: something serious. Two Lane number sixty four in PPA allowed
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: per drive. On defense, they are not good against the
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: pass number seventy four and PPA allowed per pass. North
• 17:39
  Speaker 1: Texas offense is number four to lane number eighty six
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: and rushing success rate allowed North Texas is number six.
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: It looks like this North Texas offense might just be overwhelming,
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: and that's the side that I'm going to go with.
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: My projected stat spread has North Texas by four power
• 17:59
  Speaker 1: rating North Texas by point seven. The last four weeks
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: would have two Lane by one point five to seven,
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: which I found very interesting, but I'm gonna trust my
• 18:09
  Speaker 1: overall numbers. I'll take North Texas to get this win
• 18:12
  Speaker 1: on the road. Give me the mean Green, not the
• 18:17
  Speaker 1: green wave. Give me the mean Green minus two and
• 18:20
  Speaker 1: a half on the road one more time. If you
• 18:24
  Speaker 1: haven't already liked the video, subscribe to the channel, and
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: of course jump in the comments. Let me know what
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: you're taking on these games and whatnot if you agree
• 18:33
  Speaker 1: with the picks, et cetera. I would love to hear
• 18:35
  Speaker 1: from you. The Mountain West Championship game seven pm Central Time,
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: God's time Zone on Fox, and boy, it'd be nice
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: if they would stagger some of these times. I mean,
• 18:47
  Speaker 1: it's We're gonna have four games going on at the
• 18:49
  Speaker 1: exact same time on Friday night. Two of them started six,
• 18:52
  Speaker 1: two of them started seven. Just ridiculous. Un LV is
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: going to the blue turf. That is what the computer
• 18:58
  Speaker 1: gods decided for the Mountain West Conference championship game. Sorry
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: San Diego State, Sorry New Mexico is what it is.
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: Boise last beat UNLV fifty six to thirty one just
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: earlier this year. Now that was with Maddox Madsen as
• 19:16
  Speaker 1: the quarterback. Boise's offense has fallen off a cliff since
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: they lost Madison. They did look a little bit better
• 19:24
  Speaker 1: against Utah State last week, and they are at home,
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: so that certainly plays into it. Boise certainly rated higher
• 19:31
  Speaker 1: as far as power ratings, etc. Boise has favored three
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: and are by three and a half to four depending
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: on the book, and the total is fifty eight and
• 19:39
  Speaker 1: a half. So the total has come up, and part
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: of that has to do with the fact that UNLV's
• 19:45
  Speaker 1: defense is just atrocious. And Boise has now had what
• 19:48
  Speaker 1: three weeks with the new starting quarterback, so he's started
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: to figure some things out. He looks a little bit
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: better now. He'd certainly looked better last week against Utah State.
• 20:00
  Speaker 1: But UNLV, I mean, their offense has been good all season.
• 20:03
  Speaker 1: Number fifteen in PPA per Drive, their number thirty four
• 20:06
  Speaker 1: and PPA margin number nineteen in offensive success rate. They
• 20:10
  Speaker 1: are doing well under Dan Mullen and quarterback Anthony Calandria,
• 20:17
  Speaker 1: but we'll start with Boise on offense. These numbers are
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: not exactly accurate because obviously they had their quarterback once
• 20:25
  Speaker 1: upon a time and now they don't. But they are
• 20:28
  Speaker 1: number sixty in PPA per pass, number seventy four in
• 20:31
  Speaker 1: QBR overall, number fifty four in passing success rate. Well,
• 20:34
  Speaker 1: UNLV is number eighty in yards allowed per attempt, number
• 20:37
  Speaker 1: sixty four and QBR allowed, and number ninety five in
• 20:40
  Speaker 1: passing success allowed. So I think the quarterback is going
• 20:44
  Speaker 1: to have some time here UNLV number fifty eight and
• 20:46
  Speaker 1: have it allowed or have it created and Boise number
• 20:50
  Speaker 1: fifty three and HAVOC allowed. I think that Boise is
• 20:53
  Speaker 1: going to be able to run the football though, number
• 20:56
  Speaker 1: fifty nine in PPA per rush UNOV is number one
• 20:58
  Speaker 1: thirty two, Boise number forty eight in yards per rush,
• 21:03
  Speaker 1: UNLV number one thirty two in yards allowed. It's just
• 21:08
  Speaker 1: rough watching this UNOV defense. Boise number sixty seven and
• 21:12
  Speaker 1: points per scoring opportunity UNLV number seventy two. Now, part
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: of that has to do with the fact that they
• 21:18
  Speaker 1: are number fifteen in takeaways per game, they're only number
• 21:22
  Speaker 1: fifty three and giveaways per game that puts them at
• 21:24
  Speaker 1: number twenty five and turnover margin. Boise is number thirty four.
• 21:27
  Speaker 1: They're number seventy nine and giveaways per game, but they
• 21:30
  Speaker 1: are also number fifteen in takeaways per game. So we'll
• 21:32
  Speaker 1: see if you know the whoopsie Daisy King is Tom
• 21:34
  Speaker 1: Fournellie once upon a time called him Anthony calandrel. We'll
• 21:38
  Speaker 1: see if he can hold on to the football. That
• 21:41
  Speaker 1: is one of the only issues with them. There are
• 21:45
  Speaker 1: number fifty nine and interceptions thrown per pass attempt on offense.
• 21:48
  Speaker 1: UNLV is and Boise is number nine and interceptions gained
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: per pass attempt defended. But teams only throw the ball
• 21:55
  Speaker 1: forty six percent of the time. On Boise, well, UNOV
• 21:59
  Speaker 1: only throws it forty six and a half percent of
• 22:01
  Speaker 1: the time. I do think UNLV is gonna run the
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: football here. Number eight in PPA per rush, number ten
• 22:08
  Speaker 1: in the yards per rush, Bois number one twenty two
• 22:10
  Speaker 1: and number one fifteen in those metrics. On defense, you
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: could certainly see points in this game. UNLV number fourteen
• 22:17
  Speaker 1: in points per scoring opportunity, Boise number one twelve in
• 22:21
  Speaker 1: points allowed per scoring opportunity. As far as raw five
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: factors go number fifty three for Boise, number forty five
• 22:32
  Speaker 1: for UNLV. UNLV five and one against the spread on
• 22:35
  Speaker 1: the road, Boise five and one against the spread at home.
• 22:37
  Speaker 1: So there's not a huge advantage for either team here
• 22:41
  Speaker 1: other than the fact that Boise has just blown up
• 22:47
  Speaker 1: UNLV the past what five times that they've played. I mean,
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: it really hasn't even been close. So and part of
• 22:54
  Speaker 1: this is U and V is number one thirty in
• 22:56
  Speaker 1: current strength schedule, bois number seventy two. So while BOIS
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: is eight and four on the season and un V
• 23:04
  Speaker 1: is ten and two, big difference there is that Boise
• 23:07
  Speaker 1: had to play at South Florida and at Notre Dame
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: and UNOV did not, So big massive difference in those
• 23:16
  Speaker 1: two things. Looking at this, U and V better As
• 23:20
  Speaker 1: far as strength, excuse me. As far as special teams
• 23:22
  Speaker 1: efficiency and whatnot, both teams are outside the top one ten.
• 23:26
  Speaker 1: As far as penalties per game, both are inside the
• 23:28
  Speaker 1: top thirty five. As far as turnovers or turnover margin,
• 23:35
  Speaker 1: my projected stat spread has Boise minus three point two eight.
• 23:38
  Speaker 1: My power rating has Bois minus four point four but
• 23:40
  Speaker 1: my last four weeks has U and OV minus ten
• 23:43
  Speaker 1: and a half. We saw this game earlier, but man,
• 23:48
  Speaker 1: I think Mattox Matson had a lot to do with that.
• 23:51
  Speaker 1: I think this is too many points. I think boys
• 23:54
  Speaker 1: could still win, But man, this feels like it could
• 23:56
  Speaker 1: be a much tighter game. So I will take you
• 24:00
  Speaker 1: and OV plus the four. That's the best number we
• 24:03
  Speaker 1: can get. But I'll take you and OV plus the
• 24:05
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• 26:01
  Speaker 1: five bucks a month, fifty bucks for the year, and
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• 26:07
  Speaker 1: these spreadsheets. I'm gonna do them for all the bowl games,
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  Speaker 1: for the playoff games as well. Obviously you'll see some
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• 26:25
  Speaker 1: All right, we moved to Saturday and the Big twelve
• 26:28
  Speaker 1: Conference Championship game is at eleven am Central Time, God's
• 26:32
  Speaker 1: time Zone on ABC BYU is taking on Texas Tech.
• 26:38
  Speaker 1: Good Gracious Tech is a twelve and a half point
• 26:41
  Speaker 1: favorite with a total of forty nine and a half
• 26:43
  Speaker 1: on this one. Tech played this bunch a few weeks
• 26:46
  Speaker 1: ago and beat them twenty nine to seven. You still
• 26:50
  Speaker 1: have a freshman quarterback who at this point isn't really
• 26:53
  Speaker 1: a freshman. He's been through a whole season. I get that,
• 26:55
  Speaker 1: but he's still young. And this BYU team, while they
• 27:00
  Speaker 1: have shown a lot of fight and a lot of
• 27:03
  Speaker 1: grit in just all that they cannot block for bear Bagmeier,
• 27:11
  Speaker 1: they can't do it. And this defense for Texas Tech
• 27:17
  Speaker 1: is just outrageous. Let's start with BYU on offense right,
• 27:27
  Speaker 1: b YU number twenty two and five factors and Texas
• 27:30
  Speaker 1: Tech is number one, way more talent on the Texas
• 27:34
  Speaker 1: Tech side, by the way, but BYU on offense number
• 27:38
  Speaker 1: one oh two. In passing success rate they are number
• 27:40
  Speaker 1: forty five and PBA per pass number fifty six and
• 27:43
  Speaker 1: QBR Texas Tech is number nine and QBR allowed number
• 27:46
  Speaker 1: four in yards allowed for attempt number four. In passing
• 27:49
  Speaker 1: success rate allowed they are number two and have a
• 27:52
  Speaker 1: great BYU is number twenty four and have it allowed?
• 27:57
  Speaker 1: Can you block them? Because last week against UCF, BYU
• 28:03
  Speaker 1: was down to what six offensive lineman total. I don't
• 28:08
  Speaker 1: see that getting better, uh, And they may have more
• 28:11
  Speaker 1: bodies available, but I don't think they're healthy. And with that,
• 28:16
  Speaker 1: I don't know that BYU is going to be able
• 28:18
  Speaker 1: to score a lot of points here. I mean, obviously
• 28:20
  Speaker 1: they only put up seven in the first meeting. PPA
• 28:25
  Speaker 1: per rush BYU is number twenty five. This is kind
• 28:28
  Speaker 1: of what they hang their hat on. They run the
• 28:30
  Speaker 1: ball almost fifty seven percent of the time, number twenty
• 28:34
  Speaker 1: five and PBA per rush number thirty three. In yards
• 28:36
  Speaker 1: per rush, number thirty four in rushing success Texas Tech
• 28:40
  Speaker 1: number one in PPA allowed per rush, number one in
• 28:43
  Speaker 1: yards allowed per rush, number three in rushing success allowed.
• 28:46
  Speaker 1: They are number five in offensive line yards allowed BYU
• 28:49
  Speaker 1: is number thirty three in that on offense BYU, number
• 28:53
  Speaker 1: thirty nine. In points per scoring opportunity, Texas deck is
• 28:57
  Speaker 1: number four on defense. I mean, this Tech defense is
• 29:00
  Speaker 1: just I mean, what do you even do with them?
• 29:05
  Speaker 1: I mean, it's it's wild. On the other side when
• 29:08
  Speaker 1: Tech has the ball like this is the offensive side.
• 29:10
  Speaker 1: Is Tech's weakness number thirty nine. An offensive success rate
• 29:15
  Speaker 1: well BYU's defense is number thirty in defensive success allowed,
• 29:19
  Speaker 1: number forty four against the pass, number twenty six against
• 29:21
  Speaker 1: the rush, Tech is better at throwing the football and
• 29:25
  Speaker 1: that happens to be if you want to call it that.
• 29:29
  Speaker 1: The weakness of the BYU defense BYU number forty four
• 29:32
  Speaker 1: and passing success allowed Texas Tech number twenty three. B
• 29:37
  Speaker 1: YU number twenty four in QBR allowed, Texas TECT number fourteen.
• 29:42
  Speaker 1: I just and it's not like by you can get
• 29:44
  Speaker 1: after the quarterback number fifty nine and havoc and Texas
• 29:48
  Speaker 1: Tech number fifty five and havoc allowed. So I don't
• 29:52
  Speaker 1: look for Tech to run the ball a lot. They
• 29:55
  Speaker 1: do run it, you know, fifty one percent of the time,
• 29:58
  Speaker 1: but you're kind of going into the teeth of that defense.
• 30:02
  Speaker 1: And I think they can hit some explosives passing the football.
• 30:05
  Speaker 1: They're number fourteen and passing explosiveness and BYU is number
• 30:09
  Speaker 1: forty five. As far as points per scoring opportunity, Tech
• 30:14
  Speaker 1: number thirty one, BYU number thirty seven. The big difference
• 30:17
  Speaker 1: that you'll see though, is Texas Tech gets a lot
• 30:19
  Speaker 1: more bites at the Apple. They're number one in scoring
• 30:21
  Speaker 1: opportunities per game. BYU is number thirty in scoring opportunities allowed,
• 30:26
  Speaker 1: which is really good except for the fact that you're
• 30:30
  Speaker 1: going up against the team that right now is a
• 30:33
  Speaker 1: top four team in the CFP rankings. And I still
• 30:37
  Speaker 1: don't know how they lost to Arizona State. I know
• 30:38
  Speaker 1: their quarterback was hurt, but my goodness, both of these
• 30:43
  Speaker 1: teams inside the top seven as far as turnover margin,
• 30:46
  Speaker 1: Texas Tech number one oh one and penalties per game
• 30:48
  Speaker 1: BYU number forty five in penalties per game. I don't
• 30:52
  Speaker 1: think that makes a huge difference. Both teams inside the
• 30:56
  Speaker 1: top fifty as far as special teams efficiency, but Tech
• 30:59
  Speaker 1: is just so much more talented. How this number has
• 31:02
  Speaker 1: not gotten to two touchdowns yet? I don't know, Like
• 31:05
  Speaker 1: at my projected stat spread has Tech by twelve or
• 31:09
  Speaker 1: twelve point one four. My power rating has it less
• 31:11
  Speaker 1: than six points. But over the last four weeks, Texas
• 31:15
  Speaker 1: Tech minus fifteen and a half. We're going favorite here,
• 31:19
  Speaker 1: Red Raiders. I don't see this train slowing down, and
• 31:24
  Speaker 1: I think Lubbock will be celebrating tortillas everywhere. Texas Tech
• 31:29
  Speaker 1: minus twelve and a half is the way we're going
• 31:31
  Speaker 1: on the show. The MAC Championship game almost are almost
• 31:36
  Speaker 1: also eleven am Central Time on ESPN. Miami of Ohio
• 31:42
  Speaker 1: travels to Western Michigan. Well is Detroit in Western Michigan.
• 31:48
  Speaker 1: I don't suppose it is really anyway. This is a
• 31:52
  Speaker 1: neutral field game. It's at Ford Field, but Western Michigan.
• 31:56
  Speaker 1: This is their first time there in a long long time.
• 32:00
  Speaker 1: I believe PJ. Fleck was the last one that got
• 32:02
  Speaker 1: Western Michigan to the title game, but Western Michigan favored
• 32:06
  Speaker 1: by two and a half a total of forty three
• 32:07
  Speaker 1: and a half on this These two teams played earlier
• 32:09
  Speaker 1: this season in October. Miami got the win twenty six
• 32:12
  Speaker 1: to seventeen. Granted that one was played in Ohio. My
• 32:17
  Speaker 1: projected stat spread has Western Michigan by two point sixty one,
• 32:20
  Speaker 1: My power rating has Western Michigan by point five, and
• 32:23
  Speaker 1: my last four weeks has Western Michigan minus three point
• 32:26
  Speaker 1: one point nine. So all very very close to the
• 32:30
  Speaker 1: two and a half, which is where it has sat. Basically,
• 32:34
  Speaker 1: it was at forty four and a half for a
• 32:36
  Speaker 1: total it's come down to forty three and a half
• 32:38
  Speaker 1: on this Both of these teams outside the top one
• 32:43
  Speaker 1: hundred as far as current strength to schedule. Miami's offense
• 32:47
  Speaker 1: number ninety five in PPA per drive, Western Michigan's offense
• 32:50
  Speaker 1: number one hundred in PPA per drive. So you've got
• 32:54
  Speaker 1: two bad offenses going against two really good defenses and
• 32:59
  Speaker 1: Mia move Io playing for a third straight MAC Championship
• 33:04
  Speaker 1: game here. They did not win last year, they did
• 33:07
  Speaker 1: win the year before that. Ohio won it last year
• 33:11
  Speaker 1: five Factors ranked Miami is number forty, Western Michigan number
• 33:14
  Speaker 1: forty three Miami. The reason why, now granted the numbers,
• 33:19
  Speaker 1: I'll say that Western Michigan should be favored, but it
• 33:23
  Speaker 1: didn't look like Miami was going to get here because
• 33:26
  Speaker 1: they had to change a quarterback. The Kwan Finn is
• 33:29
  Speaker 1: gone and they've got a new guy, and they put
• 33:32
  Speaker 1: in a backup that wasn't very good and then they
• 33:35
  Speaker 1: went with somebody else completely different. Name escapes me at
• 33:38
  Speaker 1: the moment, probably should have written it down. But he
• 33:41
  Speaker 1: played pretty well, I believe the last two weeks. So
• 33:46
  Speaker 1: the Miami offense, I'm not going to say homing right along,
• 33:51
  Speaker 1: but they're about what they were, so they look about
• 33:55
  Speaker 1: the same. The issue is Western Michigan is really good
• 33:58
  Speaker 1: on defense number thirty five in QBR allowed number eighteen
• 34:02
  Speaker 1: and PPA allowed per pass number forty two and passing
• 34:04
  Speaker 1: success allowed. Miami's offense number seventy nine, number ninety one
• 34:08
  Speaker 1: and number one four in though, so they can't really
• 34:11
  Speaker 1: throw the football. They're gonna have to rely on running it,
• 34:14
  Speaker 1: which they do almost fifty five percent of the time.
• 34:16
  Speaker 1: Number thirty four in rushing rate. Western Michigan is number
• 34:19
  Speaker 1: sixty five, and PPA allowed per rush Miami of Ohio
• 34:23
  Speaker 1: is number eighty six. There, Western is number forty in
• 34:26
  Speaker 1: yards allowed per rush, number thirty four in rushing success allowed,
• 34:30
  Speaker 1: Miami number sixty nine and number sixty two in those spots.
• 34:34
  Speaker 1: So let's look at who finishes drives. Miami of Ohio
• 34:39
  Speaker 1: number seventy five, and points per scoring opportunity Western Michigan
• 34:43
  Speaker 1: number thirty nine. So Western really good at making sure
• 34:47
  Speaker 1: that you do not score when you get down there.
• 34:49
  Speaker 1: They are number thirty six in red zone touchdown rate allowed.
• 34:52
  Speaker 1: They are number eighteen in defensive red zone conversion percentage.
• 34:57
  Speaker 1: Miami is number sixty four and number ninety five in
• 34:59
  Speaker 1: those metrics, so I'm not expecting a ton of points
• 35:01
  Speaker 1: from this RedHawks offense. On the other side, the Broncos
• 35:07
  Speaker 1: not great on offense either, obviously, and actually probably worse
• 35:10
  Speaker 1: because they cannot throw it whatsoever. They don't let people
• 35:14
  Speaker 1: get to the quarterback. But that does not make much
• 35:16
  Speaker 1: of a difference because they are number one twenty two
• 35:18
  Speaker 1: in passing success, number one twenty six in PPA per pass,
• 35:22
  Speaker 1: number one fifteen in yards per pass attempt, number one
• 35:24
  Speaker 1: fifteen in QBR. Miami's defense is number forty four, twenty four,
• 35:28
  Speaker 1: twenty nine, fifty four in those metrics, just wild. So
• 35:34
  Speaker 1: the only chance for Western to score is going to
• 35:38
  Speaker 1: be running the football. There are number thirty eight. In
• 35:42
  Speaker 1: rushing success rate, Miami is number sixty one, but Miami
• 35:46
  Speaker 1: is number seventy. In yards per rush. Miami's defense or sorry,
• 35:49
  Speaker 1: Western's rushing attack number seventy in yards per rush, Miami's
• 35:54
  Speaker 1: defense number twenty eight, number sixty seven in ppa per
• 35:57
  Speaker 1: rush for the offense there for the Broncos, number four,
• 36:00
  Speaker 1: forty seven for the RedHawks. As far as finishing drives,
• 36:06
  Speaker 1: Miami number excuse me, Western Michigan number eighty eight. In
• 36:08
  Speaker 1: points for scoring opportunity, Miami number seventy three. Miami much better.
• 36:13
  Speaker 1: As far as special teams, they are number twelve and
• 36:15
  Speaker 1: Western Michigan number one oh five turnover margin. Both are
• 36:18
  Speaker 1: inside the top thirty penalties per game. Western Michigan much better,
• 36:22
  Speaker 1: number twelve. Miami is number fifty. And you look at
• 36:26
  Speaker 1: five factors rank again, Miami is a little bit better,
• 36:30
  Speaker 1: number forty in five factors, Western Michigan number forty three.
• 36:37
  Speaker 1: I think there's something to the fact that Miami has
• 36:40
  Speaker 1: been there before, even though they've got a brand new quarterback,
• 36:42
  Speaker 1: et cetera. I kind of trust their defense more in
• 36:46
  Speaker 1: this situation because Lance Taylor and Walt Bell in that bunch.
• 36:52
  Speaker 1: Chritz ol Leary, obviously, his defense has done great. Walt
• 36:57
  Speaker 1: Bell on offense, I just I can't trust him. If
• 37:01
  Speaker 1: you've watched this show for any significant amount of time,
• 37:04
  Speaker 1: you know my thoughts on Walt Bell. I don't buy it.
• 37:09
  Speaker 1: I don't buy it. I will take Miami. I trust them.
• 37:12
  Speaker 1: They have been here before. They know what it takes
• 37:15
  Speaker 1: to win a championship. And Chuck Martin been doing this
• 37:18
  Speaker 1: for a long time, does not care one iota about
• 37:22
  Speaker 1: the non conference stuff. He wants to win the conference
• 37:24
  Speaker 1: and he has got his team in the position to
• 37:27
  Speaker 1: do so again. So Western Michigan plus or excuse me,
• 37:31
  Speaker 1: Western Michigan minus two and a half is not the
• 37:33
  Speaker 1: play We're going RedHawks. Give me Miami plus two and
• 37:37
  Speaker 1: a half. All right, Time for one of the Biggins,
• 37:42
  Speaker 1: this one on ABC three pm Central time, God's time Zone.
• 37:46
  Speaker 1: Alabama and Georgia in Atlanta in Mercedes Been Stadium. Georgia
• 37:51
  Speaker 1: right now a two and a half point favorite with
• 37:54
  Speaker 1: a total forty seven and a half. That is up
• 37:56
  Speaker 1: from the Georgia minus one and a half that it opened.
• 38:00
  Speaker 1: And I will tell you that Georgia has been favored
• 38:03
  Speaker 1: every single time these two teams have played in Atlanta,
• 38:06
  Speaker 1: and Alabama is five and oh straight up five and
• 38:10
  Speaker 1: oh against the spread in Atlanta against the Bulldogs. Bama
• 38:15
  Speaker 1: is ten to one straight up in the last eleven
• 38:19
  Speaker 1: against Georgia. Just this year they played in Athens and
• 38:25
  Speaker 1: Alabama got the win twenty four to twenty one. There.
• 38:29
  Speaker 1: Georgia has certainly looked like the better football team as
• 38:31
  Speaker 1: of late, but I believe the film guy mister Brooks
• 38:35
  Speaker 1: would tell you himself Alabama has the mental edge here.
• 38:40
  Speaker 1: For whatever reason. They can play like crap at Auburn,
• 38:45
  Speaker 1: look awful, and then show up and look like a
• 38:48
  Speaker 1: completely different team against this Georgia team. For whatever reason,
• 38:53
  Speaker 1: my numbers have got Bama favored Bama minus three point
• 38:58
  Speaker 1: five as far as projected statf spread power rating Batma
• 39:01
  Speaker 1: minus two last four weeks, Bama minus four point seventy four.
• 39:07
  Speaker 1: Make it make sense. I will do my best. Uh,
• 39:11
  Speaker 1: the running game is still gonna have problems, although it
• 39:15
  Speaker 1: will look completely different than what Georgia played earlier this year,
• 39:19
  Speaker 1: because it doesn't look like jam Miller is going to play,
• 39:21
  Speaker 1: So Daniel Hill will be the running back here and
• 39:25
  Speaker 1: Ak Deer is going to be the backup because Kevin
• 39:28
  Speaker 1: Riley has a broken jaw, he's the third stringer and
• 39:31
  Speaker 1: jam Miller got hurt against Auburn last week. Shouldn't make
• 39:35
  Speaker 1: much of a difference because Bama's number one oh seven
• 39:38
  Speaker 1: in yards per rush, number one twenty five in rushing explosiveness,
• 39:42
  Speaker 1: number seventy five and rushing success rate. Georgia's defense is
• 39:45
  Speaker 1: number eleven, number six and number eleven in those metrics.
• 39:51
  Speaker 1: Georgia can defend the run. The problem for Georgia is
• 39:55
  Speaker 1: Alabama throws the ball about fifty three percent of the time.
• 40:00
  Speaker 1: They are number fifteen in passing success right, Georgia's defense
• 40:03
  Speaker 1: is number sixty one. Bama is number twenty three in QBR.
• 40:07
  Speaker 1: Georgie's defense number thirty nine, Bama number twenty one, and
• 40:09
  Speaker 1: PBA per pass Georgia's defense number sixty three. So can
• 40:15
  Speaker 1: Bama finish drives? That's the question. There are number thirty
• 40:19
  Speaker 1: in points for scoring opportunity. Georgia is number sixty nine
• 40:23
  Speaker 1: in points allowed per scoring opportunity, So we'll see what
• 40:26
  Speaker 1: that looks like. Georgia a huge advantages for our special
• 40:30
  Speaker 1: teams is concerned number four in special teams efficiency and
• 40:35
  Speaker 1: Bama's number one hundred. Bama gives up punt returns, they
• 40:39
  Speaker 1: give up kick returns, they drop punts. You know, so
• 40:43
  Speaker 1: long as Adams is back there, I don't think they're
• 40:44
  Speaker 1: gonna drop any but you never know, never know what
• 40:48
  Speaker 1: this stuff. Before we get to Georgia. On offense, turnover
• 40:53
  Speaker 1: margin could be huge here Bama number nineteen. They are
• 40:56
  Speaker 1: number seventeen and giveaways per game. Georgia is number twenty
• 40:59
  Speaker 1: three three and giveaways per game. But Bama is number
• 41:02
  Speaker 1: thirty two and takeaways per game. Georgia is number one
• 41:04
  Speaker 1: oh eight. It's a huge difference between these two, like
• 41:10
  Speaker 1: massive difference actually, because Georgia just cannot generate turnovers for
• 41:15
  Speaker 1: whatever reason. So Georgia on offense, they are number fourteen
• 41:20
  Speaker 1: in offensive success rate, Bama's number seventeen in defensive success rate.
• 41:25
  Speaker 1: Georgia is a pretty good run in the football. Bama
• 41:28
  Speaker 1: has actually stepped up their game. It is a massive
• 41:32
  Speaker 1: difference when Tim Keenan is playing because that man can
• 41:36
  Speaker 1: do everything. They had him drop back in coverage against
• 41:41
  Speaker 1: Auburn at a couple of different points. And this man
• 41:44
  Speaker 1: weighs like three hundred and fifty pounds. I mean he sees
• 41:47
  Speaker 1: he takes up so much space. So Georgia on offense,
• 41:52
  Speaker 1: number thirty eight PPA per pass, Bama's number twelve. Georgia
• 41:57
  Speaker 1: number forty in PPA per rush, Bama is number fifty six.
• 42:01
  Speaker 1: On defense, Georgia has gotten better as far as running
• 42:06
  Speaker 1: the football, number thirty two and rustling success, right, but
• 42:08
  Speaker 1: Bama's number nineteen and rushing success. So we're gonna see
• 42:14
  Speaker 1: what this looks like. Georgia, of course, starting center out.
• 42:17
  Speaker 1: Both of these teams are dealing with massive injuries. We're
• 42:22
  Speaker 1: going to see who has really the healthier football team.
• 42:26
  Speaker 1: I think that's the biggest thing. Both of these teams
• 42:29
  Speaker 1: could use a buy in the playoffs. I will say
• 42:31
  Speaker 1: that for sure. So points for scoring opportunity, Georgia is
• 42:35
  Speaker 1: number seven, Bama's defense is number twenty two. As we
• 42:39
  Speaker 1: said on the other one, Bama number thirty in points
• 42:41
  Speaker 1: for scoring opportunity, Georgia number sixty nine. I think that
• 42:45
  Speaker 1: the Bama defense is going to be able to show
• 42:48
  Speaker 1: up here. I'm curious about Georgia and their defense. Can
• 42:56
  Speaker 1: they slow down a passing attack? Factors rank Bama's number
• 43:01
  Speaker 1: twelve and Georgia's number twenty three. Can So many people
• 43:10
  Speaker 1: have seen this game over and over and over again,
• 43:13
  Speaker 1: and they continue to take Georgia. And I'm not totally
• 43:20
  Speaker 1: certain why you would do that, knowing the history of
• 43:23
  Speaker 1: the matchup. Calin de Boor when he gets into games
• 43:26
  Speaker 1: like this, the man is a winner. And do I
• 43:32
  Speaker 1: think Georgia is the overall better team?
• 43:34
  Speaker 10: Yes?
• 43:36
  Speaker 1: Can I bet Georgia until I actually see them beat
• 43:39
  Speaker 1: this team? No? I know they beat him in the
• 43:43
  Speaker 1: National Championship game several weeks ago or several weeks several
• 43:47
  Speaker 1: years ago. That was the only time in the last
• 43:50
  Speaker 1: eleven tries, and it took Bama's Star Wide receiver, really
• 43:55
  Speaker 1: both Star Wide receivers being out in order for Georgia
• 44:01
  Speaker 1: to win the game. I think Jermy Bernard is gonna
• 44:06
  Speaker 1: be fine. Ryan Williams will see about that. But Isaiah
• 44:09
  Speaker 1: Horton has been an absolute beast. The Brooks kid is awesome,
• 44:16
  Speaker 1: Bama's got weapons, Josh Quevo still out. We'll see what
• 44:20
  Speaker 1: that means for the offense. Obviously you'd like to have
• 44:22
  Speaker 1: your safety blanket there. But still until I see it,
• 44:30
  Speaker 1: I gotta go Obama. So give me. Give me the
• 44:32
  Speaker 1: tide plus two and a half. That's the best number
• 44:35
  Speaker 1: we got. If this thing hits three, I mean that's
• 44:37
  Speaker 1: an automatic for me. Yeah, Alabama plus two and a half.
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• 46:01
  Speaker 1: The AC Seed Championship game seven pm Central Time on Saturday,
• 46:06
  Speaker 1: this one on ABC, Virginia taking on the Duke Blue
• 46:12
  Speaker 1: Devils and Virginia a three and a half point favorite
• 46:14
  Speaker 1: total of fifty seven and a half. Virginia won this
• 46:16
  Speaker 1: matchup earlier, just about three weeks ago, thirty four to seventeen.
• 46:23
  Speaker 1: How this duke team got here still blows my mind.
• 46:29
  Speaker 1: Virginia has two losses on the season. One of them, well,
• 46:35
  Speaker 1: both of them were too acc teams, but only one
• 46:37
  Speaker 1: of them counted because they scheduled NC State in a
• 46:41
  Speaker 1: non conference game because the damn conference is so big
• 46:46
  Speaker 1: that they weren't going to get to play them very often,
• 46:50
  Speaker 1: so they did their own thing. So let's look at
• 46:53
  Speaker 1: the numbers. Let's see exactly what we're looking at. My
• 46:56
  Speaker 1: power rating has Virginia by two point six week's Virginia
• 47:00
  Speaker 1: minus seven point six. Projected stat spread has Virginia minus
• 47:04
  Speaker 1: seven point twenty nine. Very interesting. Duke's numbers number twenty
• 47:10
  Speaker 1: five and turnover margin Virginia is number nineteen in that,
• 47:14
  Speaker 1: but it's it's interesting. The Duke is twenty third and
• 47:21
  Speaker 1: giveaways per game they're number one twenty and fumbles lost
• 47:24
  Speaker 1: per rushing attempt Virginia is number thirty seven and fumbles
• 47:28
  Speaker 1: gained per rushing attempt defended. They don't really throw turnovers,
• 47:34
  Speaker 1: they're number three and interceptions thrown per pass attempt, but man,
• 47:39
  Speaker 1: they lose some fumbles. And the Duke defense, it is
• 47:43
  Speaker 1: just atrocious for amany Diaz defense. It's just bad looking
• 47:50
  Speaker 1: at PPA margin Virginia number twenty nine, and their defense
• 47:54
  Speaker 1: is their strength. Duke number seventy three PPA margin. Their
• 47:58
  Speaker 1: offense is their strength, and the defense is so bad.
• 48:01
  Speaker 1: It's number one twenty two in PPA allowed per drive,
• 48:04
  Speaker 1: number ninety nine and defensive success allowed. And it's not
• 48:09
  Speaker 1: like Virginia has been world beaters on offense. Chandler Morris
• 48:13
  Speaker 1: has been okay, number seventy two in PPA per pass
• 48:16
  Speaker 1: seventy two in yards per attempt seventy two in QBR.
• 48:19
  Speaker 1: They are number forty nine in passing success rate, but
• 48:24
  Speaker 1: Duke number one, twenty seven one twenty five win eighteen one,
• 48:27
  Speaker 1: twenty one in those metrics. So Virginia is going to
• 48:31
  Speaker 1: be able to throw the football, and I think they'll
• 48:34
  Speaker 1: be able to run it too. Their number twenty nine
• 48:36
  Speaker 1: in PPA per rush, Duke is number seventy one. As
• 48:39
  Speaker 1: far as offensive line yards are concerned, Duke pretty good
• 48:42
  Speaker 1: at defending against that number twenty four in offensive line
• 48:44
  Speaker 1: yards allowed, Virginia number fifty, Virginia number thirty four in
• 48:48
  Speaker 1: stuff rate allowed. Duke is number nine in stuff rate.
• 48:51
  Speaker 1: The issue is Duke number sixty one in yards per
• 48:55
  Speaker 1: rush allowed and Virginia number forty one. So these Duke
• 49:00
  Speaker 1: numbers are just kind of all over the place. Virginia
• 49:03
  Speaker 1: is number sixty nine in points per scoring opportunity. Duke
• 49:07
  Speaker 1: is number one thirty one third down third down conversion
• 49:13
  Speaker 1: percentage Virginia number fourteen, Duke number one, twenty eight. Virginia
• 49:19
  Speaker 1: will be able to stay on the field. They did
• 49:21
  Speaker 1: it already once against this team. Kind of expect them
• 49:24
  Speaker 1: to do it again on the other side of the ball.
• 49:28
  Speaker 1: When Duke has it on offense, they are really good
• 49:31
  Speaker 1: throwing the football. The issue for them is that Virginia's
• 49:34
  Speaker 1: defense is really good at defending the pass. Duke number
• 49:39
  Speaker 1: twenty six and PBA per pass number thirty two in
• 49:42
  Speaker 1: yards per attempt, number twenty two in QBR Virginia number
• 49:45
  Speaker 1: twenty three and PBA allowed per pass number forty four
• 49:47
  Speaker 1: in yards allowed per attempt, number thirty three in QBR,
• 49:50
  Speaker 1: number eighteen in passing success allowed for the Who's number
• 49:54
  Speaker 1: twenty four for the Blue Devils, Duke can't run it
• 49:58
  Speaker 1: number one thirteen in rush rate, and they are number
• 50:02
  Speaker 1: fifty eight in passing or in rushing success rate, eighty
• 50:05
  Speaker 1: one in PBA per rush, number seventy eight in yards
• 50:09
  Speaker 1: per rush. Virginia's defense number forty six in PPA per rush,
• 50:13
  Speaker 1: number eighteen in yards per rush, and number forty two
• 50:16
  Speaker 1: in rushing success allowed. So that might be the best
• 50:21
  Speaker 1: opportunity for Duke to you know, actually put up points
• 50:26
  Speaker 1: because that's the weakness of the Virginia defense. I still
• 50:31
  Speaker 1: think Darien Minsa is going to have to be out
• 50:32
  Speaker 1: of this world to be able to win this football game.
• 50:35
  Speaker 1: Duke is number twenty eight in points per scoring opportunity.
• 50:38
  Speaker 1: Virginia is number twenty four, and I'll tell you, I
• 50:42
  Speaker 1: think the majority of the world is pulling for the
• 50:45
  Speaker 1: Blue Devils here because they want to see James Madison
• 50:48
  Speaker 1: get into the playoff. I think there is a world
• 50:51
  Speaker 1: where Duke wins this game, and if they win it convincingly,
• 50:56
  Speaker 1: Duke could jump into that top twenty five in the
• 50:59
  Speaker 1: playoff and James Madison fallout. It's entirely possible. But Virginia
• 51:06
  Speaker 1: in number twenty four and five factors rank Dute number
• 51:09
  Speaker 1: fifty six. I I've seen this Duke team too many times.
• 51:15
  Speaker 1: I think Virginia is actually pretty good. I think the
• 51:18
  Speaker 1: Whos are gonna go to the playoffs, and this number,
• 51:21
  Speaker 1: I don't think it's come up enough. It was two
• 51:23
  Speaker 1: and a half. I already betted at that three and
• 51:26
  Speaker 1: a half is the new number. I think it ends
• 51:29
  Speaker 1: up closer to a touchdown or maybe what it was
• 51:33
  Speaker 1: last time, which is thirty four to seventeen. I don't
• 51:35
  Speaker 1: feel like anything's changed. Maybe I'm nuts, but I think
• 51:40
  Speaker 1: Virginia kind of wipes the forward with these guys. I
• 51:42
  Speaker 1: will take the Cavaliers minus three and a half, all right,
• 51:46
  Speaker 1: one more time if you haven't already subscribed to the
• 51:49
  Speaker 1: channel like the video and jump in the comments. I
• 51:54
  Speaker 1: would appreciate that quite a bit, actually, so go ahead
• 51:57
  Speaker 1: and help me out do that. Oh and check out
• 51:59
  Speaker 1: Buy my Coffee Slash Winning Cures. The Big Ten Championship
• 52:03
  Speaker 1: Game Saturday night. This one seven pm Central Time on Fox.
• 52:08
  Speaker 1: And normally there's a lot more hype when you have
• 52:11
  Speaker 1: number one against number two. But for whatever reason, because
• 52:14
  Speaker 1: of the playoff, the fact that both of these teams
• 52:16
  Speaker 1: are in the playoff, regardless of what happens here, both
• 52:19
  Speaker 1: probably have buyers. Regardless of what happens here, it doesn't
• 52:24
  Speaker 1: feel like there's that sense of urgency. This one happening
• 52:29
  Speaker 1: in Indianapolis, Indiana. The Indiana Hoosiers are going to be there.
• 52:34
  Speaker 1: Ohio State travels well everywhere. I think you're probably going
• 52:43
  Speaker 1: to have more Indiana fans at this one. They haven't
• 52:46
  Speaker 1: been there. But at the same time, Ohio State hasn't
• 52:50
  Speaker 1: been to the Big Ten champion or Big Ten Championship
• 52:53
  Speaker 1: game since what the COVID year twenty twenty, and Indiana
• 52:58
  Speaker 1: technically should have gone that year and the Big Ten
• 53:03
  Speaker 1: changed the rule at the last minute and allowed Ohio
• 53:06
  Speaker 1: State to take the spot. So maybe a little bit
• 53:09
  Speaker 1: of a payback for that one. Last year, these two
• 53:12
  Speaker 1: teams played and Ohio State won the game thirty eight
• 53:15
  Speaker 1: to fifteen in Columbus. It was a splattering, as Josh
• 53:21
  Speaker 1: Pate would call it. The last Indiana win against Ohio
• 53:24
  Speaker 1: State was in nineteen eighty eight in Bloomington. In that
• 53:29
  Speaker 1: time span, Ohio State is thirty one zero and one
• 53:34
  Speaker 1: straight up against Indiana, and I don't see this one
• 53:38
  Speaker 1: being a whole lot different. This thing opened at Ohio
• 53:40
  Speaker 1: State minus five and a half. It has come down.
• 53:42
  Speaker 1: It's now Ohio State minus four to four and a
• 53:44
  Speaker 1: half depending on the book, forty seven and a half
• 53:47
  Speaker 1: to forty eight and a half is your total, depending
• 53:49
  Speaker 1: on the book. The total opened at forty nine and
• 53:53
  Speaker 1: a half. Opened with Ohio State minus five and a half.
• 53:56
  Speaker 1: I think they expected more Buckeye action and there's just
• 53:58
  Speaker 1: been a lot of Indiana love here. My projected stat
• 54:02
  Speaker 1: spread has Ohio State minus four point three to two.
• 54:05
  Speaker 1: My power rating has Ohio State minus two. The last
• 54:08
  Speaker 1: four weeks it has Ohio State minus four and a half.
• 54:13
  Speaker 1: Would you call this a letdown spot for Ohio State?
• 54:17
  Speaker 1: Maybe because they just beat Michigan for the first time
• 54:21
  Speaker 1: since twenty nineteen. How much does that weigh on the
• 54:28
  Speaker 1: coaching staff? Are they relieved? Do they care about this game?
• 54:32
  Speaker 1: You wouldn't think that would be an issue with the
• 54:34
  Speaker 1: one versus two matchup, but eh, I mean, that's what
• 54:38
  Speaker 1: we're looking at. These two teams have played the best
• 54:43
  Speaker 1: of anybody all season. I mean it's not even been close.
• 54:46
  Speaker 1: Ohio State number one and PBA margin, Indiana number three,
• 54:51
  Speaker 1: number one in offensive success rate for Ohio State, Indiana's
• 54:55
  Speaker 1: defense number five, Indiana's offense number two in success rate.
• 55:00
  Speaker 1: Ohio State's defense number ten. Ohio State not great against
• 55:03
  Speaker 1: the pass, which is hilarious because they're number thirty one
• 55:08
  Speaker 1: in passing success allowed, but they're number four in PPA
• 55:12
  Speaker 1: allowed for pass, number one in yards allowed per attempt,
• 55:14
  Speaker 1: number six in QBR well, Indiana's offense is number three,
• 55:17
  Speaker 1: number four, number one in those. They are number two
• 55:21
  Speaker 1: in passing success rate. Fernando Mendoza is going to have
• 55:26
  Speaker 1: his hands full. I will I will certainly say that
• 55:30
  Speaker 1: Indiana running the football number six and PPA per rush,
• 55:33
  Speaker 1: number eleven, in yards per rush, number five in offensive
• 55:36
  Speaker 1: line yards. Ohio State is number five, number five, number
• 55:40
  Speaker 1: six and rushing success allowed, number eighteen in offensive lineyards allowed.
• 55:45
  Speaker 1: So it's the defensive line for Ohio State that is eh.
• 55:49
  Speaker 1: I mean, if there is a weakness, I guess that
• 55:51
  Speaker 1: would be. It doesn't feel to me that Matt Patricia's
• 55:54
  Speaker 1: defense has a whole lot of weaknesses though, so we
• 55:58
  Speaker 1: shall see. We're kind of nit picking here, or picking knits,
• 56:04
  Speaker 1: as I guess they would call it. Indiana number three
• 56:08
  Speaker 1: in points for scoring opportunity, Ohio State's defense number six.
• 56:13
  Speaker 1: On the other side, Ohio State number two in points
• 56:16
  Speaker 1: for scoring opportunity, Indiana's defense number one. Ohio stat is
• 56:21
  Speaker 1: number one in PPA P pass Indiana's defense is number
• 56:24
  Speaker 1: twenty five. They're number fifteen in past success allowed, Ohio
• 56:28
  Speaker 1: status number three in passing success rate. I don't think
• 56:32
  Speaker 1: Indiana's got the secondary to hang with a healthy Carnel
• 56:37
  Speaker 1: Tate Jeremiah Smith in this etc. Right, I don't feel
• 56:42
  Speaker 1: like they've got in saying is absurd, just ridiculously accurate.
• 56:49
  Speaker 1: But again, he has not been in one of these situations.
• 56:51
  Speaker 1: Mendoza has not been in one of these situations. So
• 56:54
  Speaker 1: you've got some new faces at quarterback and how much
• 56:59
  Speaker 1: does the environment impact them? I don't think it'll have
• 57:02
  Speaker 1: very much at all, but we'll see. I have State
• 57:05
  Speaker 1: look good running football against Michigan last week, might find
• 57:08
  Speaker 1: it a little more difficult this week against Indiana. I
• 57:11
  Speaker 1: have State number forty six and PBA per rush, number
• 57:13
  Speaker 1: thirty six in yards per rush, number twelve in rushing success,
• 57:17
  Speaker 1: and number thirty six in offensive line yards. Indiana is
• 57:21
  Speaker 1: top ten, really top five, and almost all of these.
• 57:24
  Speaker 1: Number six in PBA per rush, number nine in yards
• 57:27
  Speaker 1: per rush. They are number four in rushing success allowed,
• 57:30
  Speaker 1: number four in offensive line yards allowed. I just don't
• 57:34
  Speaker 1: see it. I have State number two in points per
• 57:37
  Speaker 1: scoring opportunity. Indiana is number one in points allowed per
• 57:41
  Speaker 1: scoring opportunity, so special teams. Indiana has the advantage number
• 57:48
  Speaker 1: thirty to number sixty eight. Turnover margin Indiana number one.
• 57:52
  Speaker 1: They take care of the football, they generate turnovers. Ohio
• 57:55
  Speaker 1: State is number thirty four. They do not generate turnovers.
• 57:58
  Speaker 1: They're number ninety four and take aways per game, but
• 58:00
  Speaker 1: they are number four in giveaways, so they don't give
• 58:02
  Speaker 1: it away very much. Both of these teams inside the
• 58:04
  Speaker 1: top fifteen as far as penalties per game. Both of
• 58:07
  Speaker 1: them are outside the top ninety five as far as
• 58:11
  Speaker 1: plays per minute, so our pace, tempo, whatever you want
• 58:14
  Speaker 1: to call it, they both go slow. So where is
• 58:18
  Speaker 1: the advantage? What are we looking for? Five factors rank
• 58:25
  Speaker 1: Indiana number two, Ohio State number four. The advantage that
• 58:30
  Speaker 1: you will find is that Ohio State is number four
• 58:33
  Speaker 1: in overall talent rank. Indiana is number forty six. I
• 58:40
  Speaker 1: still think talent matters. Ohio State has a roster that
• 58:45
  Speaker 1: is filled with insanely athletic, super talented dudes, and Indiana's
• 58:52
  Speaker 1: got some, but I don't think they got enough. After
• 58:59
  Speaker 1: watching this up in Columbus last year, I know it's
• 59:02
  Speaker 1: completely different teams. I get that. I know Signetti's awesome.
• 59:07
  Speaker 1: I'm a Signetti guy. Smoke them if you got them
• 59:12
  Speaker 1: straight through the filter. But I can't do it. I
• 59:16
  Speaker 1: can't bet Indiana here. I think Ohio State is immensely
• 59:20
  Speaker 1: more talented. I think they want the Big Ten championship.
• 59:23
  Speaker 1: I think both of these teams do. But I think
• 59:26
  Speaker 1: Ohio State is a way better football team. Which is
• 59:32
  Speaker 1: when I say way better, I don't mean like crush
• 59:35
  Speaker 1: them better. But do I think they're about a touchdown better?
• 59:39
  Speaker 2: Yeah?
• 59:39
  Speaker 1: I think that I will take the Buckeyes. Give me
• 59:42
  Speaker 1: Ohio State minus four, best number we can get right now.
• 59:49
  Speaker 1: I don't think Indiana can hang with these guys, so
• 59:51
  Speaker 1: I will take the buck Eyes. All right, we went
• 59:54
  Speaker 1: through all nine games. We spent too long on probably
• 59:57
  Speaker 1: most of them. But let's recap it. Let's go through
• 1:00:00
  Speaker 1: Conference USA title. We're taking Kennessall minus two and a half.
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 1: Or sorry, we're taking jack State plus two and a half.
• 1:00:06
  Speaker 1: Maybe I should read the damn things right, that'd probably
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 1: be good, right, c USA Jack State plus two and
• 1:00:13
  Speaker 1: a half, Sun Belt Troy plus twenty three and a half,
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 1: AAC I guess the ACU North Texas minus two and
• 1:00:20
  Speaker 1: a half, the Mountain West U and LV plus four,
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 1: Big twelve Texas Tech minus twelve and a half, the
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 1: MAC Miami of Ohio plus two and a half, the
• 1:00:30
  Speaker 1: SEC Alabama plus two and a half, the ACC Virginia
• 1:00:34
  Speaker 1: minus three and a half. And in the Big ten,
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 1: we're going with the favorites. We're going Buckeyes minus four.
• 1:00:42
  Speaker 1: That is gonna wrap things up four really the regular season.
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 1: By the next time we talk, my friends, we will
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 1: be looking at a playoff bracket. We're gonna be going
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 1: over bowl games all that good stuff. As I do
• 1:00:59
  Speaker 1: every year. I will go over every single bowl game
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 1: on the schedule right here on the channel. So make
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 1: sure you are subscribed. It's free to do that. It
• 1:01:09
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• 1:01:12
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• 1:01:17
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• 1:01:18
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  Speaker 1: a ton when you sign up over there. Ah, what
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 1: a year it has been, Indiana a playoff that could
• 1:01:32
  Speaker 1: have Virginia Indiana two Lane or North Texas. How weird?
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 2: Is this?
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 1: What a sport? God? I love this sport. All right,
• 1:01:44
  Speaker 1: gotta wrap it up, you guys, take care of yourself,
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 1: take care of each other. God bless college football and
• 1:01:51
  Speaker 1: hopefully all of your tickets cash this week. Thanks for
• 1:01:55
  Speaker 1: listening to Winning Cures Everything. Subscribe, leave a review or comment,
• 1:01:59
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• 1:02:02
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• 1:02:04
  Speaker 2: Their twelve Days of Christmas. Your spar had for me
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 2: twelve Christmas eleven cakes are baking, ten salmon smoking, nine
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 2: Christmas crackers, eight lovely Jesus, seven sheets of wrappings six
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 2: stocking fillers.
• 1:02:20
  Speaker 3: Five mins, Spies for Christmas case, three Brussels rouse, two
• 1:02:26
  Speaker 3: turkey legs and the Christmas mate.
• 1:02:29
  Speaker 7: Super easy, you spy, You're super easy supermarket.
• 1:02:35
  Speaker 5: I've been thinking we need to talk to him about it.
• 1:02:37
  Speaker 6: He might not listen to me, but yeah, as good
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 6: a time as any. Okay, I'll give it a go
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 6: if he ever takes those ear forms out. Vaping is
• 1:02:47
  Speaker 6: harmful to your child's health. Nicotine addiction can affect their concentration, sleep,
• 1:02:52
  Speaker 6: and moods. They're much more likely to smoke when they're older, too,
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 6: so take a deep breath and talk to them today.
• 1:02:59
  Speaker 6: Get the facts about vaceing a nicotine visit h S
• 1:03:02
  Speaker 6: dot I E Forward slash vaping from the h SC