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Daniel Davis Deep Dive · Brian Thomas

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  Speaker 1: From fifty five KR the Talk station A twenty nine
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  Speaker 1: to fifty five KRC the talk station. It's Tuesday. It's
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  Speaker 1: that time of week we get the Daniel Davis Deep Dive.
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  Speaker 1: Retired Lieutenant Colonel Daniel Davis joins a fifty five KRC
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  Speaker 1: Morning should have brought his military expertise and knowledge. Of course,
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  Speaker 1: today we're gonna be focusing on Iran as we have
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  Speaker 1: been for weeks and weeks now. Welcome back, Daniel Davis.
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  Speaker 1: It's always a pleasure to have you on the Morning
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  Speaker 1: show man.
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  Speaker 2: Always a pleasure to be here, Brian, thanks for having.
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  Speaker 1: Me thought about you. I read Gerard Baker's history repeats
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  Speaker 1: in iran op ed piece quote it isn't unpatriotic to
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  Speaker 1: express skepticism about our ability to fight and when this
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  Speaker 1: kind of war, of course, and I think that's an
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  Speaker 1: accurate statement. Since I've been listening to you for such
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  Speaker 1: a long time, spreading a dose of realism. It's easy
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  Speaker 1: to say we got the biggest military in the world,
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  Speaker 1: but when you look at the reality of even what
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  Speaker 1: happened yesterday, what do we do We well, did some
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  Speaker 1: defensive strikes, but we bombed missile sites and we bombed
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  Speaker 1: the boats and other of the these resources that apparently
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  Speaker 1: Iran has tons of. If you keep pointing out and
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  Speaker 1: when you pivot over to the idea that Saudis have
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  Speaker 1: to contemplate this. If we can't resolve some sort of peace,
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  Speaker 1: which sounds like it's being discussed, they're going to get
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  Speaker 1: their desalination plants get hit. They're going to have their
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  Speaker 1: infrastructure get hit. They have enough resources of the routings
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  Speaker 1: do to blow up lots and lots of really important targets.
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  Speaker 1: And I would say the desalination plants. That's a humanitarian
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  Speaker 1: problem for the Saudis. They're not going to have drinking water.
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  Speaker 1: So the realities of just saying we're going to fight
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  Speaker 1: and win not as simple as you, Daniel Davis, have
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  Speaker 1: been pointing out now for quite some time. So where
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  Speaker 1: are we on this is it? I do you think
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  Speaker 1: Donald Trump is willing to like, not push for an
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  Speaker 1: unconditional surrender, but go ahead and agree to this. What
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  Speaker 1: sounds like the framework at least has been reached to
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  Speaker 1: open the ports back up, open the straight of horror
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  Speaker 1: moves back up. And then let's talk longer about the
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  Speaker 1: nuclear program. That's about what we've got this morning, although
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  Speaker 1: some side just saying yes and some sites are saying no.
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  Speaker 1: And of course everything comes with the United States, says,
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  Speaker 1: but Irtian officials deny kind of caveats to it. I
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  Speaker 1: know that's a lot to unpackage, Daniel, but we've got
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  Speaker 1: a lot to unpackage right now.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, and let's just start with the military aspect of it.
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  Speaker 2: This is absolutely an unwinnable military problem for the United States.
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  Speaker 2: It doesn't matter if you look at the spreadsheets of
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  Speaker 2: who's got more power on the other side, and it's
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  Speaker 2: well overwhelmingly in our favor. Our budgeted last year was
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  Speaker 2: one trillionaires, was about twelve billion. I think something like that,
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  Speaker 2: just a fraction of ours. Of course, there's stuff is antiquated,
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  Speaker 2: they don't have much of it, et cetera, but they
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  Speaker 2: have what is necessary to defend their country. Our military
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  Speaker 2: problem is so much greater than the Iranian military problem
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  Speaker 2: that it's hard to overstate. Because you have geography. Not
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  Speaker 2: only is it a country that it's about as big
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  Speaker 2: as Western Europe, but it's also got the entire western
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  Speaker 2: nearly half of the country is a massive series of
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  Speaker 2: mountain ranges, not just make it nearly effectively impossible to
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  Speaker 2: invade on a ground route, which is why we never
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  Speaker 2: even contemplated put in the ground force. But it also
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  Speaker 2: makes it nearly impossible to win in the air because
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  Speaker 2: they have all these underground bunkers in granite mountains. And
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  Speaker 2: I've been inside one of our granite mountain complexes which
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  Speaker 2: is designed to survive a nuclear blast when I was
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  Speaker 2: on active duty, and they're basically constructed the same way.
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  Speaker 2: So you're never going to get them off of there.
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  Speaker 2: So it doesn't matter how many missions we have, because
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  Speaker 2: we can't penetrate in that far into the mountains. So
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  Speaker 2: they're going to maintain the ability to do as you
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  Speaker 2: suggested a second ago hit desalinization plants oil into structure, energy, infrastructure,
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  Speaker 2: gas fields, you name it, if we restart this war,
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  Speaker 2: and that gives them tremendous negotiating leverage and they very
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  Speaker 2: well know it. And so now then we're stuck with
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  Speaker 2: what can President Trump do? We should I of course
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  Speaker 2: argue we shouldn't have ever started this war, but we have.
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  Speaker 2: So now we have what we have, how then are
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  Speaker 2: we going to get out of it? Iran this morning saying, listen,
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  Speaker 2: we do want to negotiate this shittle this blockade and
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  Speaker 2: the attacks from the first forty days have genuinely caused
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  Speaker 2: a lot of harm and pain for the Iranian side,
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  Speaker 2: and they have a lot of motivation to get this off,
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  Speaker 2: but they don't want to have to come back and
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  Speaker 2: do this again six months from now, nine months from now,
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  Speaker 2: whenever we're an israel Is ready to attack again from
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  Speaker 2: their perspective, So they say, listen, I want like at
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  Speaker 2: least twelve billion dollars of my funds released upfront sanctions
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  Speaker 2: relief that are going to be phased in as we
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  Speaker 2: go through the negotiations, and then we have a two
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  Speaker 2: phase proper process from the Iranian side. One is to
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  Speaker 2: get the straight opened up, which they say they'll do
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  Speaker 2: with caveats. They want the reprocessing, et cetera. And then
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  Speaker 2: once we get past that part, then we'll start talking
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  Speaker 2: about the negotiation for nuclear program, etc. Which they say
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  Speaker 2: is on the table. So that's a positive thing, but
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  Speaker 2: that means President Trump has to do something that he's
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  Speaker 2: been mocking even as of last night on True Social
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  Speaker 2: which is Obama gave billions in cash to Ukraine, et cetera.
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  Speaker 2: In the twenty fifteen deal, but now Iran is saying,
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  Speaker 2: we've got to have even more of that before we'll
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  Speaker 2: even start negotiations on phase one. That is the big
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  Speaker 2: problem we face right now.
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  Speaker 1: It really is. And all of this absent you know,
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  Speaker 1: total regime change, you know, pivoting, aside from whether you know,
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  Speaker 1: they get some cash up front, which would be an
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  Speaker 1: embarrassment to I think everybody, or straight opens up and
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  Speaker 1: we let their ports open up first, which would help
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  Speaker 1: everybody to a large degree deal with his backup of
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  Speaker 1: shipping and everything. And then let's just say that happens. Though,
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  Speaker 1: is Donald Trump willing to get less than or take
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  Speaker 1: less than he's been promising in order to get himself
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  Speaker 1: out of these problems that we all are dealing with
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  Speaker 1: with with regard to the ripple effect in the economy.
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  Speaker 1: And I think more importantly, recognizing that absent regime change,
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  Speaker 1: which of course would require all the military complexities you
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  Speaker 1: just mentioned and so much more, the Iranians know that
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  Speaker 1: at any time on a going forward basis, they could
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  Speaker 1: close the straight up horror moves back down because they've
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  Speaker 1: done it before and they know they can do it again.
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  Speaker 2: Well, that's exactly the point. And I think that they
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  Speaker 2: in fact, they're saying this morning, we will never go
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  Speaker 2: back to the pre war conditions that the straight of
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  Speaker 2: Horror moves can be open, and we'll have it completely
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  Speaker 2: open as long as everybody pays a fee. They say,
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  Speaker 2: it's not a toll. Let's be accurate, it's a fee.
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  Speaker 2: But whatever they're saying, yeah, we will never relinquish control
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  Speaker 2: of this. So whatever agreement you think you're going to
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  Speaker 2: come up with America, it needs to include that or
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  Speaker 2: there's not going to be a deal on top of
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  Speaker 2: the money and everything else. And that's just what It's
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  Speaker 2: hard to imagine why they would ever go back on that,
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  Speaker 2: with that leverage in their hand, to just relinquish it
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  Speaker 2: with no nothing but a word or promise from our side,
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  Speaker 2: because our word hasn't been very good here in the
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  Speaker 2: last two years with the wars that we started in
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  Speaker 2: twenty five and twenty six. So that's kind of where
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  Speaker 2: we're at. Also on the difficulty side, but for President Trump,
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  Speaker 2: he is really, i think digging himself a deeper hole
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  Speaker 2: right now, making it more difficult because he keeps mocking
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  Speaker 2: stuff from the Obama deal in twenty fifteen. But he's
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  Speaker 2: gonna have to do something that's kind of like it,
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  Speaker 2: or he's not gonna succeed. And his base is well
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  Speaker 2: aware of this. And in fact, this I guess it was.
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  Speaker 2: I think it was this morning. Jack Keene was on
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  Speaker 2: there saying, do not make a deal, mister President. Don't
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  Speaker 2: do it, because they wouldn't live up to it, et cetera.
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  Speaker 2: There's no trust on either side. But the problem is
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  Speaker 2: there's gonna have to be Brian because if we don't,
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  Speaker 2: I'm tired of paying ninety five dollars for a tank
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  Speaker 2: of gas. Yeah, for a wiscar, you know what I'm saying.
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  Speaker 2: And it's only gonna get worse if we don't get
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  Speaker 2: this thing open with pretty quick.
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  Speaker 1: Well in speed of the twenty fifteen deal. I mean,
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  Speaker 1: the the Iranians can't be trusted either. They were supposed
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  Speaker 1: to limit their uranium production and they built more centrifuges
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  Speaker 1: and they push more toward getting a nuclear weapon, and
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  Speaker 1: Hans Blix would go in from time to time and
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  Speaker 1: give us some you know, strongly worded letter and nothing
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  Speaker 1: would happen, and they just continue to go down their
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  Speaker 1: merry way, also while continuing to fund proxy terrorist organization.
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  Speaker 1: So you know, the regime is evil and bad. I
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  Speaker 1: think we can all collectively agree on that, but we're
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  Speaker 1: I don't. It doesn't sound like we can really accomplish anything.
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  Speaker 1: And oddly enough, they seem like they have the upper
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  Speaker 1: hand right now, Daniel Davis, which I think could that
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  Speaker 1: be contemplated at the outset of this. I know you
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  Speaker 1: didn't want to launch this for at the outset, but
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  Speaker 1: is that something that you think the administration contemplated, that
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  Speaker 1: Iran would have an upper hand to this end.
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  Speaker 2: They should have. I've spoken a couple of several times
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  Speaker 2: with Joe Kent after he resigned from the ODE and I,
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  Speaker 2: and he confirmed to me that absolutely that the President
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  Speaker 2: was told by a number of people, senior intelligence, senior
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  Speaker 2: military people. They said, the likelihood is that if you
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  Speaker 2: if you strike, they're going to take control of the
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  Speaker 2: straight of horror moves and they may never relinquish it.
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  Speaker 2: So he was told by other people they said, no,
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  Speaker 2: they won't do that, or else we can take it
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  Speaker 2: from him. He listened to the people who told him
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  Speaker 2: what he wanted to hear, unfortunately, and so that's why
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  Speaker 2: we got in now. I would I would take a
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  Speaker 2: bit of an issue with the claim that Ukraine, that Iran,
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  Speaker 2: you know, continued to break all their promises and reprocess
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  Speaker 2: et cetera. They only did that after we got out
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  Speaker 2: of the deal. So when they were in the deal,
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  Speaker 2: they largely kept to it. And every time they Hans
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  Speaker 2: Blix and some of these other folks would wreck acknowledge
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  Speaker 2: some place they were out, they would bring it back
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  Speaker 2: into compliance until we left it. And even when they
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  Speaker 2: went up to twenty percent and then sixty percent, they
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  Speaker 2: said they would go back to the three point sixty
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  Speaker 2: seven percent if we would go back to the JCP away.
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  Speaker 2: So there is that, and we of course would never
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  Speaker 2: do that once we started it. And now then again
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  Speaker 2: we are where we are. Whether we should have been
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  Speaker 2: or shouldn't have been doesn't matter. Now this is where
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  Speaker 2: we are, and how are we going to get out
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  Speaker 2: of it?
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  Speaker 1: Well, and one more point I want to ask you
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  Speaker 1: about Daniel Davis before we part, coming to hey, coming today,
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  Speaker 1: the whole idea of getting the various Arab nations together
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  Speaker 1: under one big Abraham Accord. I love the idea conceptually.
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  Speaker 1: It's beautiful. Everybody can trade and play nicely with you
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  Speaker 1: each other. Nobody's gonna be dropping bombs on each other
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  Speaker 1: then and everybody gets to keep their own country. Fine,
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  Speaker 1: what's the likelihood that the I know, the Iranians would
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  Speaker 1: never accept peace with the Israel. They hate Israel, they
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  Speaker 1: want to eradicate them from the map. But the other
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  Speaker 1: Arab nations who haven't yet on to the Abraham Accords,
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  Speaker 1: are they going to give up their you know, animosity,
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  Speaker 1: hatred toward the whole concept of Israel being there?
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, Actually, Saudi Arabia is that's kind of the lynch pin,
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  Speaker 2: and that's what both Israel and the United States have
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  Speaker 2: been chasing after since the Abraham Accords were first announced,
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  Speaker 2: and Saudi Arabia has always said they are open to
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  Speaker 2: the idea. They would be willing to if and this
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  Speaker 2: is the big if Israel recognizes a Palestinian state in
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  Speaker 2: the in Gaza and in the West Bank and gives
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  Speaker 2: freedom to the people. They said, that's our non negotiable requirement,
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  Speaker 2: and then we want to and then others would fall
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  Speaker 2: in place. There is a deal to be had there.
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  Speaker 2: There is an expansion of the Abrahm Records, which could
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  Speaker 2: bring a lot of peace to the region, but it
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  Speaker 2: comes with for what right now is the Israeli political
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  Speaker 2: poison pill of having anything to do with a Palestinian state,
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  Speaker 2: they won't even contemplate that. So that is dead on
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  Speaker 2: arrival because Saudi Arabia is emphatic that they will not
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  Speaker 2: compromise on that point. There's other things that they can
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  Speaker 2: work with and they desire and overall, but they won't
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  Speaker 2: compromise on that, and right now Israel won't either, So
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  Speaker 2: the whole thing is dead. So if the Saudi proposal
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  Speaker 2: were to go through, and I know how much of
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  Speaker 2: an ask that is, you establish a Palestine state and
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  Speaker 2: the regents you talked about Saudi Arabi they come over
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  Speaker 2: to the idea of Abraham Accords. Does that bring with
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  Speaker 2: them the various other Arab nations. Is that concession by
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  Speaker 2: the part on the Israeli part work for all the
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  Speaker 2: other countries, presumably with the exception of the Iranians. No,
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  Speaker 2: I think it does. I think that most other countries
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  Speaker 2: also want that as well. They would love to live
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  Speaker 2: in peace and man, all these GCC countries that have
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  Speaker 2: been hit this war, they want nothing more than for
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  Speaker 2: all the reasons for war to be off the table,
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  Speaker 2: so they can just do business, sell oil, get money
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  Speaker 2: from it and take care of their population. They would
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  Speaker 2: love that. But that's a pretty big problem that so
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  Speaker 2: far has never been solved.
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  Speaker 1: And I presume that Hasbala would then therefore forward from
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  Speaker 1: that point forward be defunded. Asmala wouldn't get what it
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  Speaker 1: wants with the eradication of Israel, but all the other
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  Speaker 1: countries probably would stop unding the terrorist network accept that.
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  Speaker 2: And this is this is not commonly thought about here,
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  Speaker 2: but both Humas and especially uh Hezebola and the Hoothies,
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  Speaker 2: they are both on record as saying they are fighting
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  Speaker 2: because of what's happening with the Palaescet Indians in the
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  Speaker 2: West Bank and in the Godza Strip. If that gets solved,
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  Speaker 2: and the Hoothies have shown they've done this, when when
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  Speaker 2: Israel has done what it said on you know, the
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  Speaker 2: ceasefires or whatever, they backed off. So there is every
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  Speaker 2: reason to think that the Hezebola would also back off
• 12:27
  Speaker 2: because they also don't want to catch Israeli missiles and
• 12:30
  Speaker 2: tank rounds in the teeth every time something happens. They'd
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  Speaker 2: love to not have to do that anymore. So it
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  Speaker 2: has a lot of positive ripple effects if we could
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  Speaker 2: get there.
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: We'll find out someday Daniel Davis Deep Dive every Tuesday
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: here in the fifty five KRSCY Morning Show at eighty thirty.
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: Find him during the week and all the conversations he
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: has with others. Thank you for your time. As always,
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  Speaker 1: Daniel Davis, always my pleasure for Brian. See you next time.
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: Enjoy your week eight forty two to fifty five KRCD
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