Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / The Favorites - NFL Betting Recap Week 5

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The Favorites - NFL Betting Recap Week 5 · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:08
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three
0:12
Speaker 1: six five. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network,
0:16
Speaker 1: Live from our Tommy John Home Studios. I am Chad Mellman,
0:20
Speaker 1: Chief Content Officer of the Action Network. This is our
0:23
Speaker 1: Sunday Night episode in which we review the faves five
0:28
Speaker 1: picks we put into the contest, discussed why, discuss why
0:33
Speaker 1: we left some games out, preview the early lines we
0:37
Speaker 1: already like for week six. I'm joined as always by
0:43
Speaker 1: my co host, my companion, Mike Campadre my BFF, professional
0:47
Speaker 1: vetter Ed Osimon.
0:50
Speaker 2: Hi, Chad dud Dude.
0:55
Speaker 1: We just finished watching the Rams game, which was an
0:59
Speaker 1: extreme cruciating beat. We'll get into it because they actually
1:03
Speaker 1: played better than the Packers the whole game. Goddamn kickers, Kickers.
1:10
Speaker 1: What an insane, ugly, infuriating, tense, exhausting and to all
1:19
Speaker 1: three games we had in our early and late window
1:22
Speaker 1: that we put in the contest. Don't forget we have
1:25
Speaker 1: the Steelers minus two and a half tonight, New Orleans
1:28
Speaker 1: plus five and a half tomorrow. In these games, there'll
1:32
Speaker 1: been a cavalcade of bad quarterback play from quarterbacks. We
1:37
Speaker 1: almost always can count on befuddling, idiotic play calling from coaches,
1:45
Speaker 1: ultimately a one and two start in games in which
1:49
Speaker 1: it looked like we could have gone three and zero.
1:51
Speaker 1: We could have gone two and one. We could have
1:52
Speaker 1: gone oh and three. It could have been one and
1:54
Speaker 1: two with a different combination of games. We'll break it
1:59
Speaker 1: all down. If you believe you could beat our picks
2:02
Speaker 1: this season, be our guest, let us pay you forty
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Speaker 1: thousand dollars. Sign up four at Favorites dot actionnetwork dot com.
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Speaker 1: Catch every opposite eph catch every episode of the Favorites
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Speaker 1: live on YouTube. For those enjoying on YouTube, don't forget
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Speaker 1: to give us a like and subscribe to the Action
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Speaker 1: Network YouTube page. I am as tongue tied about these
2:26
Speaker 1: reads as I am about what happened on the field today.
2:31
Speaker 1: As a reminder of The Favorites podcast is presented by
2:33
Speaker 1: Bet three sixty five and now new Bet three sixty five.
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Speaker 1: Customers get two hundred dollars in bonus bets when you
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Speaker 1: bet five dollars. Sign up using promo code Favorites, deposit
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Speaker 1: ten dollars and place a bet for five dollars to
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Speaker 1: can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures, and more.
2:53
Speaker 1: Whatever the moment. It's never ordinary. At bet three sixty
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Speaker 1: five must be twenty one or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Virginia,
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Speaker 1: I'm sorry, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia,
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Speaker 1: we're eighteen and older. In Kentucky, gambling problem, call one
3:13
Speaker 1: eight hundred gambler or one eight hundred bets off. In
3:16
Speaker 1: Iowa terms conditioned restrictions applied. Maybe I'm like losing it
3:22
Speaker 1: right now because my brain has melted from some of
3:25
Speaker 1: the games today. Here's a little stat we've been tracking
3:29
Speaker 1: and talking about it in all the podcasts. How the
3:32
Speaker 1: underdogs of six plus points are doing this season now
3:39
Speaker 1: eleven and eight straight up sixteen two and one against
3:44
Speaker 1: the spread this season, the first time since nineteen sixty
3:49
Speaker 1: dogs of six or more are over five hundred straight
3:53
Speaker 1: up through five weeks with the best against the spread.
3:59
Speaker 1: When page one of those games was one of our
4:02
Speaker 1: last ones out Today, we will get to that crazy
4:06
Speaker 1: crazy day. First up, Baltimore's Cincinnati. Look, this was a
4:11
Speaker 1: kick in the dick because the Bengals were up by
4:14
Speaker 1: ten points three different times in the second half twenty
4:18
Speaker 1: four to fourteen, thirty one, twenty one, thirty eight, twenty eight.
4:22
Speaker 1: Like there was a point where Lamar Jackson bobbled a
4:26
Speaker 1: snap twice, scrambled all over the field, ended up rolling right,
4:31
Speaker 1: lofted a ball across his body to the middle of
4:34
Speaker 1: the end zone for an Isaiah Likely touchdown to make
4:36
Speaker 1: it thirty one to twenty eight. In my notes, I wrote,
4:39
Speaker 1: no one can stop anyone. The next series, Jamar Chase
4:45
Speaker 1: takes a screen, goes sixty yards for a touchdown, and
4:48
Speaker 1: the Bengals are back up thirty eight twenty eight. Both
4:50
Speaker 1: teams averaged six point eight yards per play, insane, and
4:58
Speaker 1: we lost.
5:00
Speaker 2: Yeah, it sucks because that was so much fun. I mean,
5:02
Speaker 2: that's those are the best games to watch. And you're
5:05
Speaker 2: feeling pretty good because you got the dog in a
5:07
Speaker 2: shootout game, right and your dog is up. And honestly,
5:11
Speaker 2: even when they were scoring all those points of the Ravens,
5:13
Speaker 2: I was like, it's okay, Joe will keep keep getting
5:15
Speaker 2: us back. And yeah, the one he tried to force
5:18
Speaker 2: to Chase trying into an interception kind of flipped the
5:22
Speaker 2: game because even then, at worst they were gonna get
5:24
Speaker 2: three points and we were gonna be up six. Yeah,
5:26
Speaker 2: and that was gonna be nice for us with our
5:28
Speaker 2: number two and a half. It's like, okay, even if
5:31
Speaker 2: we don't win out right here, at least we'll get
5:33
Speaker 2: the cover. And uh no, the gambling gods had other plans.
5:38
Speaker 2: They tried to get cue with it, and overtime they
5:40
Speaker 2: ran I think three times or whatever it was, got
5:43
Speaker 2: zero yards, put their kicker at a long kick, you know,
5:49
Speaker 2: like you said, fumble, snap, put it down, bad kick.
5:54
Speaker 2: You know, as soon as they missed that, we both
5:56
Speaker 2: knew we were dead. I mean that that just sucked
5:59
Speaker 2: all the air out the stadium. So that was just
6:01
Speaker 2: a brutal way to start the day.
6:03
Speaker 1: And like, what's so frustrating about this game? Burrow is
6:09
Speaker 1: the guy we want to have the ball. And you
6:11
Speaker 1: would say earlier this week, you and Evan talked about
6:14
Speaker 1: this Joe Burrow as a long shot MVP candidate if
6:21
Speaker 1: this Bengals team could go on a run.
6:23
Speaker 2: Still not terrible. I think he had fourty yards of
6:25
Speaker 2: five touchdowns.
6:25
Speaker 1: Four hundred yards five touchdowns, one costly pick, but he
6:29
Speaker 1: was playing like the Burrow who had been playing this
6:33
Speaker 1: way all season, only he'd been doing it in the
6:37
Speaker 1: best possible circumstances for his team to really get back
6:41
Speaker 1: into the year. Right now, that one in four and
6:44
Speaker 1: that pick was excruciating. I don't blame him, because we're
6:49
Speaker 1: not in it without him. You gotta blame the defense
6:52
Speaker 1: because look in the overtime Lamar Jackson fumble, they get
6:58
Speaker 1: the ball back, and like you said, explain this to me.
7:04
Speaker 1: You have Joe Burrow who's thrown for four hundred yards
7:06
Speaker 1: and five touchdowns. You have Jamar Chase who has ten
7:11
Speaker 1: touchdowns before the age of twenty five of sixty plus yards,
7:16
Speaker 1: he set a new record today, breaking Odell Beckham Junior's record.
7:22
Speaker 1: I know everybody thinks fifty yard field goals are gimmes now,
7:27
Speaker 1: but they're not. They're just not. So why are you
7:31
Speaker 1: not even trying to gain any yards when you have
7:36
Speaker 1: the ball on the thirty five yard line. It doesn't
7:38
Speaker 1: make any sense to me at all. When you were
7:41
Speaker 1: watching that, are you thinking like, oh, yeah, this is
7:43
Speaker 1: exactly what I would do.
7:45
Speaker 2: No, I've said thought as you. I was just thinking
7:47
Speaker 2: to myself Okay, get one more first down, then go
7:49
Speaker 2: for the kicks, I mean the runs. Like if you
7:52
Speaker 2: get one first down, then it's like you just said,
7:55
Speaker 2: it's a forty yarder, not a fifty yarder. And what
7:57
Speaker 2: was even like it was a fifty yard I think
7:59
Speaker 2: it was like a fifty eight. It was something crazy
8:01
Speaker 2: like that.
8:01
Speaker 1: It was fifty three field Okay.
8:04
Speaker 2: I just remember thinking like that's still really far. But yeah, again,
8:08
Speaker 2: all of our bets today came down to a kicker.
8:12
Speaker 1: Yeah, and it's crazy, like Justin Tucker finally found his
8:17
Speaker 1: range and kicked a fifty six yard field goal. It
8:22
Speaker 1: was just excruciating. We either we either totally deserved that
8:27
Speaker 1: win and just got you know, totally posed, or we
8:34
Speaker 1: don't deserve it at all.
8:36
Speaker 2: It's also the best of the number, right, Like the
8:38
Speaker 2: people at the three, the plus three, they were never
8:41
Speaker 2: word me and you sitting there two and a half.
8:44
Speaker 2: We were dying all game because we knew it was
8:45
Speaker 2: gonna come down to that number.
8:47
Speaker 1: Well, look that I'm glad you said that, because I
8:49
Speaker 1: do want to point out, if I'm not mistaken, Cincinnati
8:54
Speaker 1: plus three was your Simon.
8:57
Speaker 2: Says, yeah, but push pushes hurt just as bad, you.
9:00
Speaker 1: Know, and so at least a push you don't lose,
9:04
Speaker 1: I know, and you know, we don't get that option
9:07
Speaker 1: in the contest, so we were always on Cincy at
9:11
Speaker 1: two and a half. So a lot of things went
9:14
Speaker 1: the wrong way for us, but pointed a brief second.
9:18
Speaker 2: That was the one team we talked about switching out
9:21
Speaker 2: for a brief second this morning, but you're.
9:23
Speaker 1: Right, we did before.
9:25
Speaker 2: It was honestly stupid people, but it was in the
9:28
Speaker 2: end it was semi sound because it was just we're
9:31
Speaker 2: all all the games we had, that was the one
9:32
Speaker 2: that scared me the most. All the other games I
9:34
Speaker 2: felt comfortable with, but there was just something about this
9:37
Speaker 2: line sitting at two and a half all week. Something
9:39
Speaker 2: was off about it. But well luck we end of
9:41
Speaker 2: the day. It was just bad luck.
9:43
Speaker 1: It was It was really bad luck. And these half
9:46
Speaker 1: points are becoming so much more relevant this year. V
9:51
Speaker 1: maybe this is something we look up for the Tuesday
9:54
Speaker 1: show because haven't had a great stat He did it
9:56
Speaker 1: unconvinced me the pregame show this morning, and we talked
9:59
Speaker 1: to about it earlier in the week on Thursday. The
10:02
Speaker 1: spreads right now are historically low four point two points
10:08
Speaker 1: per game, right, So when a spread is that low,
10:11
Speaker 1: it naturally means that a half point is going to
10:16
Speaker 1: have a percentage influence that is much greater on winning
10:19
Speaker 1: or losing than when there's a much bigger variance in
10:23
Speaker 1: the spreads. So that half point, all of a sudden,
10:27
Speaker 1: means the world to us, which is why we decided
10:32
Speaker 1: not to take it out because we also loved Houston,
10:37
Speaker 1: and we loved Houston at minus a half, which is
10:41
Speaker 1: when we put it in on Friday, and by today
10:43
Speaker 1: the line was up to one and a half, and
10:45
Speaker 1: we didn't want to lose the one and a half
10:48
Speaker 1: on Houston because we felt like this game could be
10:51
Speaker 1: a little bit close. And this is another one where
10:55
Speaker 1: we had a big lead. Texans were up twenty to
10:59
Speaker 1: three in the second half and then just slowly but surely,
11:05
Speaker 1: they let it bleed away. What were you thinking when
11:10
Speaker 1: we were watching that game.
11:12
Speaker 2: That was like that that game was dead. We should
11:15
Speaker 2: have lost that game, Yeah, CJ he whatever. Whatever. They
11:20
Speaker 2: talked about it halftime, they came out of a game plan.
11:22
Speaker 2: He looked totally uncomfortable, totally lost. Once Nico Collins left
11:26
Speaker 2: that game, Yes, something shifted that offense where he just
11:29
Speaker 2: did not feel comfortable anymore. And I mean the one
11:33
Speaker 2: turner rehad the interception obviously was bad. He threw it
11:35
Speaker 2: to a spot that his Rye receiver went to. The
11:37
Speaker 2: other went the other way, or maybe it was the
11:39
Speaker 2: tight end went the other way. He threw it to
11:41
Speaker 2: the other spot. The defender was right there for the pick.
11:44
Speaker 2: The fumble was inexcusable though. That was just like, oh
11:47
Speaker 2: my god, in your own end. After Josh Allen had
11:51
Speaker 2: most likely just got a concussion and somehow yes talked
11:54
Speaker 2: his way out of the tent and came back out,
11:55
Speaker 2: and I was like, okay, if they get a touchdown here,
11:58
Speaker 2: me and you, I just thought me and you were dead.
12:00
Speaker 2: And you know, luckily the defense held. You could see
12:03
Speaker 2: Josh just wasn't right, like you know, he didn't didn't
12:07
Speaker 2: come out there and looked like his old self. To
12:11
Speaker 2: two plays that he had guys open. He didn't make
12:13
Speaker 2: the throw. Got lucky that they took a field goal there,
12:16
Speaker 2: and then you know, once again came down to a kicker.
12:19
Speaker 2: Houston put them in the position to get the CJ
12:22
Speaker 2: put them in the position to get the three man.
12:25
Speaker 2: That was that was a sweat once he kicked that throw,
12:28
Speaker 2: I was like, Okay, at least at least the right
12:30
Speaker 2: side on that one came through, because you're right. It
12:32
Speaker 2: was up twenty to three and Houston had the ball,
12:35
Speaker 2: and it was just like, Okay, this was a good read,
12:38
Speaker 2: good bet. Not so much. It was a sweat all
12:41
Speaker 2: way to the end there. So yeah, never never easy,
12:43
Speaker 2: is it.
12:44
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's actually why I'm not so bummed about the
12:50
Speaker 1: one in two, because like, we lost the Bengals game
12:56
Speaker 1: that we probably should have won, but we won the
12:58
Speaker 1: Texans game that we probably show lost only because of CJ.
13:04
Speaker 1: Josh Allen was downright terrible. Nine of thirty one hundred
13:08
Speaker 1: and thirty one yards, four point four yards per attempt,
13:13
Speaker 1: the Bills three to fourteen on third down, and that
13:15
Speaker 1: was even before.
13:16
Speaker 2: That's what I mean. That's why I don't know if
13:17
Speaker 2: we deserve to lose that. Like they dominated Josh Allen
13:20
Speaker 2: that game. They had two big plays that turn into touchdowns. Yes,
13:24
Speaker 2: I mean did you watch that all that London game? Yes,
13:27
Speaker 2: it was incredible. I think Sam Darnold might have had
13:31
Speaker 2: ten completions for like one hundred yards like that. He
13:34
Speaker 2: was awful with an interception and they almost won by
13:37
Speaker 2: double digits. It's just it really shows this year, like
13:40
Speaker 2: these complete teams, the teams that do have the defense
13:44
Speaker 2: with the offense like that. You know that second half
13:46
Speaker 2: we were dead, Like you said, CJ was awful, but
13:49
Speaker 2: lucky for us Houston's defense, you know, they kept us
13:52
Speaker 2: in this game.
13:53
Speaker 1: Well, either I was going to say, even before Josh
13:57
Speaker 1: Allen hit the turf and the two violent hits today,
14:02
Speaker 1: there was this guy in the Panthers, the tight end Tremble,
14:06
Speaker 1: who looked like he just flopped. He got hit so
14:11
Speaker 1: hard by Jakwan Brisker, flopped, dropped the ball mid air
14:15
Speaker 1: like when he was falling to the ground. The Bears
14:17
Speaker 1: recover it. It looked like he was out cold. And
14:21
Speaker 1: then the Josh Allen hit where his head slammed into
14:24
Speaker 1: the turf. I am shocked they let him come back
14:29
Speaker 1: into the game because if it's not there's something fishy
14:34
Speaker 1: about that one one hundred percent, because there has to be,
14:38
Speaker 1: because he was dazed, he was out like that was
14:42
Speaker 1: uncomfortable to look at in the replay.
14:45
Speaker 2: Well, the key is to be really dumb on your
14:47
Speaker 2: cognitive test when you do it, like when you don't
14:50
Speaker 2: have a concussion, and so your baseline's really loose, and
14:53
Speaker 2: maybe Josh Allen knows the system, so he did the test.
14:56
Speaker 2: I saw them give him the test on the sidelines,
14:58
Speaker 2: and it's you know, I see it's a lot of
15:00
Speaker 2: pressure on this doctor who doesn't work for the team,
15:02
Speaker 2: he works for the league. But yeah, I could not
15:05
Speaker 2: believe when he came back out there. I really couldn't,
15:07
Speaker 2: because it was like everyone knows he just he got
15:09
Speaker 2: a concussion. I mean, there's there's no way around. He
15:12
Speaker 2: got slammed really hard on the turf, which is concrete.
15:15
Speaker 2: But yeah, yeah, you're right, that's a question work for
15:19
Speaker 2: this upcoming week. Maybe we'll see what the lines are
15:22
Speaker 2: for that. But there could not be a line on
15:24
Speaker 2: his game just because it's unknown if he'll be playing
15:26
Speaker 2: in it.
15:26
Speaker 1: In the second half of that game, after going up
15:28
Speaker 1: twenty to three, you mentioned a couple mistakes by CG.
15:32
Speaker 1: I just want to be clear about what they were.
15:35
Speaker 1: The Texans went they were They went up to twenty
15:38
Speaker 1: to three, the Bills came back, cut it to twenty ten.
15:41
Speaker 1: Texans go three and out, they give up a TD,
15:44
Speaker 1: they're up twenty seventeen, went five and out, forced to punt.
15:49
Speaker 1: CJ throws and pick at the Buffalo twenty, the Bills punt,
15:55
Speaker 1: CJ fumbles at his own fifteen. Texans get the ball back,
15:58
Speaker 1: they're driving close ished field goal range, cig gets called
16:03
Speaker 1: for intentional grounding on third down knocks them out of
16:07
Speaker 1: field goal range. But this is where we won the game,
16:11
Speaker 1: and thank god for idiotic play calling. It killed us
16:16
Speaker 1: with the Bengals and that overtime drive, but it won
16:20
Speaker 1: us because the Bills threw three straight times out of
16:25
Speaker 1: the back of the end zone when the Texans had
16:28
Speaker 1: no timeouts and the game could have gone to overtime,
16:33
Speaker 1: and they end up getting the punt, getting into field
16:35
Speaker 1: goal range and kicking a fifty eight year field goal.
16:39
Speaker 1: What the f were the Bills thinking? Yeah?
16:45
Speaker 2: I think they were thinking, well, they have three time outs,
16:47
Speaker 2: so even if we run it here three times, how
16:49
Speaker 2: much time does that take off? But because they had
16:51
Speaker 2: those three timeouts, they were able to put themselves in
16:53
Speaker 2: a field goal position and kick that field goal. Like
16:55
Speaker 2: you just said, so, yeah, pretty bizarre, But again it
17:00
Speaker 2: was I couldn't even watch it. You just det it
17:02
Speaker 2: out looked like Josh Allen there on those three throws.
17:04
Speaker 2: That's another reason I didn't get it. It's like, you know,
17:07
Speaker 2: look himself on the other throws you just had him do.
17:09
Speaker 2: Now you're putting the ball in his hands again. I
17:11
Speaker 2: thought he was in good sacked. But yeah, that was
17:15
Speaker 2: pretty pretty crazy, the fact they passed three straight times
17:18
Speaker 2: and that in that spot.
17:20
Speaker 1: Last game on the board that we've bet so far
17:22
Speaker 1: today for the contest was the Rams and the Packers.
17:24
Speaker 1: This was our big balls, I think, and first one
17:28
Speaker 1: we've lost this year, and we shouldn't have lost it. Like,
17:32
Speaker 1: the Rams were dominating this game, and they were dominating
17:34
Speaker 1: it in the exact way you said they were, which
17:38
Speaker 1: was run the ball, run the ball, run the ball.
17:40
Speaker 1: The problem was and like Sean McVay, you knew from
17:45
Speaker 1: the beginning he was going to be uber aggressive, right
17:47
Speaker 1: he went for a fourth down down seven to nothing
17:49
Speaker 1: in the four yard line in the first quarter, Like
17:52
Speaker 1: he knew he had to be aggressive to stay in
17:53
Speaker 1: this game. And the problem and then the Rams were dominating.
17:58
Speaker 1: They had twenty plays on the Packer's side of the
18:02
Speaker 1: field in the first half. They had thirteen points. One
18:06
Speaker 1: of them was a pick six, So like they just
18:08
Speaker 1: couldn't finish and of course, goddamn kicker next the point
18:15
Speaker 1: that basically is the reason we lost.
18:16
Speaker 2: This bet, and we both knew, right we've been betting
18:19
Speaker 2: long enough. As soon as you missed that, it's like,
18:20
Speaker 2: all right now you need a lot of things to
18:22
Speaker 2: break your way to make up for that point, because
18:24
Speaker 2: that's how it is when you bet these dogs. But
18:26
Speaker 2: you're right. In that first half, I was like, this
18:28
Speaker 2: should be twenty one to ten, like they dominated it,
18:31
Speaker 2: and you know, they come out, this is on my
18:34
Speaker 2: main TV. They have a great drive. I think it's
18:37
Speaker 2: down to the twenty five and Williams fumbles for the Rams.
18:40
Speaker 2: So again they're thirteen to ten. Drive in the field,
18:42
Speaker 2: probably at least going to get three there. You know,
18:45
Speaker 2: they fumble, it's like three four plays Green Bay. You know,
18:48
Speaker 2: big plays, goes down the field, score another touchdown. And
18:52
Speaker 2: that was my fear was we couldn't have Stafford playing
18:55
Speaker 2: from behind with this team. We needed them to keep
18:57
Speaker 2: running the ball and that's when they were going to
18:59
Speaker 2: be dominant this game. Once he got behind, he needs
19:02
Speaker 2: to start making big plays. That's where Stafford kind of,
19:04
Speaker 2: you know, throws it up for people, and that's what
19:06
Speaker 2: he did right, he had a bad turnover, So yeah,
19:09
Speaker 2: it's the.
19:09
Speaker 1: Next series, had a bad turnover again in the packer's
19:12
Speaker 1: side of the field. Like they couldn't they just couldn't
19:15
Speaker 1: close it out.
19:16
Speaker 2: Yeah, and they're just a really bad team. I mean,
19:18
Speaker 2: the Rams are really bad and even in the game
19:21
Speaker 2: where they dominated, they're just so bad that eventually, you know,
19:25
Speaker 2: green Bay took advantage of it. And like you said,
19:27
Speaker 2: once they misstok your point, we still had a chance.
19:32
Speaker 2: They went, they went for the two pointer, and you know,
19:36
Speaker 2: green Bay smart, they called a time out because they
19:38
Speaker 2: knew they had a bad set on defense, came back
19:41
Speaker 2: out in a different look, and they stuffed the Rams
19:44
Speaker 2: on a reverse. So a day where all of our
19:48
Speaker 2: bets basically came down to kickers and two pointers, we're
19:51
Speaker 2: one and two right now, which is brutal, but it's
19:52
Speaker 2: also a day where it's like we easily could have
19:54
Speaker 2: been three and oh. So it's like trying not to
19:56
Speaker 2: get too upset overreact to it. The biggest one, I mean,
20:01
Speaker 2: if you're ready to get to it, was just thank
20:04
Speaker 2: god Houston covered because I would have been a real
20:07
Speaker 2: jackass if we were zero and three right now when
20:09
Speaker 2: I made you switch out Arizona.
20:12
Speaker 1: Yeah, well look, thank god we didn't put in the Raiders,
20:16
Speaker 1: we didn't put in the base.
20:17
Speaker 2: No, we're never going to contest.
20:20
Speaker 1: And I'm proud of us actually, And we didn't take
20:23
Speaker 1: the bait on the Browns at three and a half.
20:27
Speaker 2: Story because I remember you liked Seattle and the Browns
20:29
Speaker 2: and both of them. I like, now that I talked
20:31
Speaker 2: to you off it, I was just like, I bet
20:33
Speaker 2: Washington at three I had no read on that one.
20:36
Speaker 2: And then Seattle. I was just like, there's something fishy
20:38
Speaker 2: about this line no neighbors. I didn't understand what that
20:42
Speaker 2: line was. In seven and a half eight and boy
20:44
Speaker 2: did the books know. The books know every teaser, everything
20:48
Speaker 2: was tied to that Seattle team. I think they were
20:50
Speaker 2: number one two. Any people left in their survivor contest
20:53
Speaker 2: took Seattle. Just brutal, brutal, brutal survivor contest.
20:57
Speaker 1: Oh my god, I just realized I told a friend
21:01
Speaker 1: to take Seattle and their survivor.
21:04
Speaker 2: I think everyone did. It was the spot no neighbors.
21:07
Speaker 2: It's crazy, you know what.
21:08
Speaker 1: I honestly, for I think for anybody left, it really
21:11
Speaker 1: came down to Seattle and San Francisco. Yeah, and so
21:17
Speaker 1: either way, you were losing this weekend if you took
21:20
Speaker 1: out either one of those teams. So I don't I
21:22
Speaker 1: don't feel that bad. What you want to what I
21:26
Speaker 1: want to talk about? What you want to talk about Arizona?
21:32
Speaker 1: I want to I want to go back to the
21:35
Speaker 1: shows earlier this week. I want to bet the Packers
21:39
Speaker 1: at three and a half. If I had, it would
21:41
Speaker 1: have been stupid. And if I had, if the game
21:44
Speaker 1: and end of the exact same way, I wouldn't have
21:46
Speaker 1: deserved to have won that game.
21:48
Speaker 2: Those are the best when you do win. Those the
21:49
Speaker 2: ones you don't deserve.
21:50
Speaker 1: But your comment to me was, don't get cocky. And
21:55
Speaker 1: then I said to you, we got to bet Arizona
21:58
Speaker 1: seven and a half. You have to bet Arizona seven
22:02
Speaker 1: and a half. These are the numbers we play, and
22:04
Speaker 1: then quote, this is what we do. I feel like
22:13
Speaker 1: you got bullied.
22:15
Speaker 2: I didn't, though I saw their reasoning. And again when
22:19
Speaker 2: it was when you had a blocked field goal for
22:22
Speaker 2: a touchdown and then a pick off, you know, Kyler,
22:27
Speaker 2: and it's twenty three to ten, you get it. You're like, okay,
22:30
Speaker 2: this is why so many people are warning me about
22:32
Speaker 2: that number and to stay away. But what they don't
22:35
Speaker 2: understand is in the year of twenty twenty four, if
22:38
Speaker 2: you're a seven point dog, you're gonna win outright. Don't
22:41
Speaker 2: really matter if you get a block kick. The other
22:45
Speaker 2: team's kicker is going to break his leg and it's
22:48
Speaker 2: gonna change the whole dynamic. I don't think they scored
22:50
Speaker 2: a single point after that field goal made by their
22:53
Speaker 2: their punter, like the punter kicked it. I think they
22:55
Speaker 2: got it to twenty three points, and I don't think
22:57
Speaker 2: the four and are scored the rest of the game.
22:59
Speaker 2: It was why we loved, like you said, why we
23:02
Speaker 2: love betting these stupid, ugly dogs. It's like the forty
23:05
Speaker 2: nine ers didn't play that well. The Cardinals were getting
23:08
Speaker 2: really unlucky, and then eventually they kept at it and
23:11
Speaker 2: the tide flipped, and then it just got really stupid
23:14
Speaker 2: and wonky once the kicker went out and was like, Okay,
23:16
Speaker 2: they have a chance to somehow figure out a way
23:17
Speaker 2: to win this game out right. Yeah, that's that's a
23:21
Speaker 2: bad loss for the forty nine ers, right, A ten
23:22
Speaker 2: point lead might have been the fourth quarter. Yeah, at home,
23:26
Speaker 2: and you blow that one. But yeah, kudess to you.
23:29
Speaker 2: It's just Kyler definitely played better than he had the
23:34
Speaker 2: previous three four weeks, probably since Week two, and that
23:39
Speaker 2: was a game they needed because people like me and
23:41
Speaker 2: a lot of other people are just like you know,
23:43
Speaker 2: especially when they were getting blown out. It's just like Kyler,
23:46
Speaker 2: he's so inconsistent. But when he's on and he's running
23:49
Speaker 2: the ball, like when he's using his legs as a threat,
23:52
Speaker 2: the team is so different. And that's why I don't
23:54
Speaker 2: get why some weeks he does in some weeks he doesn't.
23:56
Speaker 2: Where it's like against the Commander, I think he rushed
23:58
Speaker 2: for five yards might have been the second play of
24:00
Speaker 2: the game. Against the forty nine ers, she ran for
24:02
Speaker 2: that fifty yard touchdown. It's like that's his weapon. The
24:05
Speaker 2: team needs to use it more. So, Yeah, someone and
24:08
Speaker 2: you as well that bet futures market on This Cardinals
24:11
Speaker 2: team definitely needed that one in a big way.
24:15
Speaker 1: Trade McBride. One of the reasons why we liked the
24:18
Speaker 1: Cardinals this week and that we felt Kyler could be
24:22
Speaker 1: more consistent was because of Trey McBride coming back for
24:26
Speaker 1: the first time in a few weeks, and look, he
24:28
Speaker 1: had a massive play to start the game. He was
24:31
Speaker 1: a great security blanket for Kyler on a bunch of plays.
24:34
Speaker 1: Nine targets, six catches, fifty three yards. This was the
24:39
Speaker 1: Cardinals team to me, at their best. We do have
24:44
Speaker 1: to worry a little bit about a couple things here
24:47
Speaker 1: before we get into the lines. Just looking bad at
24:51
Speaker 1: some of these teams. How worried are we about CJ Stroud?
24:58
Speaker 1: He is not playing well and all the magic that
25:01
Speaker 1: he had last year on third downs seems to have disappeared.
25:06
Speaker 1: Maybe it's Nico Collins, maybe it's tanked out, maybe it's
25:09
Speaker 1: Joe Mixon. But they've won games. They're four and one.
25:14
Speaker 1: Either they're better than we think, or they're a winning
25:18
Speaker 1: team that is winning ugly despite not playing well and
25:22
Speaker 1: beating good teams. Or they're getting really lucky and they're
25:26
Speaker 1: going to get their come up ince and CJ is
25:30
Speaker 1: struggling and having a hard time seeing the same things
25:33
Speaker 1: he saw last.
25:33
Speaker 2: Year a little bit. But I think, I mean, you
25:36
Speaker 2: talked about it coming in the year. Why I was
25:38
Speaker 2: just telling people, you know, I end up giving in him.
25:42
Speaker 2: Did bet the over on I think it was nine
25:44
Speaker 2: and a half or maybe ten for this Houston team.
25:47
Speaker 2: But my whole reason for being cautious was teams ad
25:51
Speaker 2: just they watched the tape from last year and they
25:54
Speaker 2: figure out, Okay, what does this QB not like to
25:56
Speaker 2: do and what does he really like to do and
25:58
Speaker 2: excel at and they forced him against that. So you know,
26:01
Speaker 2: you can see how teams are playing in and they're
26:03
Speaker 2: shielding it to that he can't roll out to his
26:04
Speaker 2: right to throw the ball and the move anymore. Right.
26:06
Speaker 2: They kind of let the defenders go way outside on
26:09
Speaker 2: the pass rush so that he's forced the other side
26:12
Speaker 2: to throw across his body, which he doesn't look like
26:14
Speaker 2: he's comfortable with doing. But as a whole I think,
26:18
Speaker 2: you know, there's a lot of things in Houston offense
26:20
Speaker 2: it feels like it's stupid, like the play callin wise
26:23
Speaker 2: and you know, maybe you have to go back and
26:25
Speaker 2: watch more of it. But you know, it's hard to
26:28
Speaker 2: criticize the team that's four and one, but you're right,
26:30
Speaker 2: it's like it's a it's a foreign one that feels
26:32
Speaker 2: like they're very lucky to be for and one where
26:34
Speaker 2: they've had some things break their.
26:36
Speaker 1: Way, not just a little Eagles four and one like
26:38
Speaker 1: last year. Remember when the Eagles kept winning and winning
26:41
Speaker 1: and when he then got exposed and like Jalen Hurts,
26:45
Speaker 1: wasn't quite the quarterback he was the year before. There
26:48
Speaker 1: was something missing, but they were a good team that
26:51
Speaker 1: were getting the right bounces. It feels it feels a
26:55
Speaker 1: little inflated to me.
26:57
Speaker 2: Yeah, and it feels like a team that I'm not
26:59
Speaker 2: sure yet. I have to look see what they're playing
27:00
Speaker 2: next week. But the team I'm gonna want to fade
27:02
Speaker 2: next week is I'm guessing Houston's on the road. And
27:04
Speaker 2: it's just we've seen even Chris Raybond talk about today,
27:07
Speaker 2: his splits at home and away are massive, Like he's
27:10
Speaker 2: way better as a QB, not just last year, but
27:14
Speaker 2: it's continued into this seasons. He's struggled on the road
27:17
Speaker 2: this season. So yeah, I think you're right bring that
27:20
Speaker 2: up where it's like I told you, the biggest thing
27:22
Speaker 2: I noticed that was the Nico Collins thing. They looked
27:24
Speaker 2: like a completely different offense and obviously he take away
27:29
Speaker 2: his number one running back running back in Joe Mixon.
27:31
Speaker 2: Now you're taking away Nico Collins. Yeah, a second year
27:34
Speaker 2: quarterback is going to struggle a little bit, right, he's
27:36
Speaker 2: lost two big pieces to his success. So we'll see
27:40
Speaker 2: what their their status is for the upcoming week. But
27:43
Speaker 2: I can tell you right now I'm probably gonna be
27:45
Speaker 2: betting against Houston. It's just that they don't It's kind
27:47
Speaker 2: of like the Chiefs thing. They just don't look right.
27:49
Speaker 2: And the books knows the public are going to keep
27:51
Speaker 2: coming on this team so they can keep bumping up.
27:53
Speaker 2: I mean that was their first cover of the year, right,
27:55
Speaker 2: and you know you said it best too, like when
27:58
Speaker 2: it was plus one and a half. I me and
28:00
Speaker 2: you were betting it pretty hard. I was feeling pretty
28:01
Speaker 2: good about Houston when they flipped to a favorite, didn't like.
28:04
Speaker 2: It made me a little uneasy. So yeah, there you go.
28:08
Speaker 1: Uh they never make it easy. No, in the perfect
28:11
Speaker 1: spot where you'd want to fade Houston, they're going to
28:14
Speaker 1: go on the road as seven point favorites at the
28:19
Speaker 1: New England Patriots.
28:21
Speaker 2: Yeah, God, that's gross.
28:22
Speaker 1: So that when we get to week six lines, let's
28:26
Speaker 1: just pile in because we got a huge road favorite
28:28
Speaker 1: as a touchdown. The Patriots are as likely to win
28:32
Speaker 1: this game as they are to cover this game, so.
28:35
Speaker 2: It is actually correct this year. So I can't even
28:37
Speaker 2: argue against it.
28:37
Speaker 1: You know, think about that, all right, we got to
28:39
Speaker 1: do a quick the other thing before we get to
28:41
Speaker 1: that same thing with the Niners. Like the Niners keep
28:46
Speaker 1: looking amazing. Brock Purty looks like he can do so
28:49
Speaker 1: much and they're not actually following through in anything. And
28:52
Speaker 1: some of it is injuries. That had really freaky injuries
28:55
Speaker 1: this year that I do think have impacted them. But
28:59
Speaker 1: they're two and three right now.
29:03
Speaker 2: And again, he never lost coming into this year, he
29:06
Speaker 2: was undefeated against the visual opponents. This year he's lost both.
29:10
Speaker 2: He lost to the Rams and he just lost to Arizona.
29:13
Speaker 2: And I mean it's it sounds lazy and simple, but
29:16
Speaker 2: a graphic they kept putting up during the game was
29:17
Speaker 2: last year they were nine for nine against that Arizona
29:20
Speaker 2: team in the red zone with touchdowns, and in this game,
29:23
Speaker 2: I think they what attacked.
29:24
Speaker 1: Won for six. The last time I saw the graphic,
29:27
Speaker 1: they were one for four and I can't remember how
29:29
Speaker 1: many more times they made it.
29:30
Speaker 2: So yeah, so I think right there, that's the big
29:34
Speaker 2: issue for this team. But it's like they have they
29:37
Speaker 2: have so much talent and perty is so good and
29:40
Speaker 2: so comfortable, you know, in this game. His biggest weakness
29:44
Speaker 2: was they had the hands up. You saw his size
29:48
Speaker 2: a little bit coming to play here where it's like, Okay,
29:51
Speaker 2: it's not the biggest deal. He's not six five, but
29:54
Speaker 2: you saw they kept putting their hands up, and he
29:56
Speaker 2: had two different tip passes right at the line though,
29:58
Speaker 2: I think, did you have two picks off?
30:00
Speaker 1: Yeah, well one of them went for a pick to
30:02
Speaker 1: end the game, right, that one.
30:03
Speaker 2: At the end of the game. So other than that,
30:05
Speaker 2: the party man, he's he's really good. He is a
30:08
Speaker 2: gamer like he has a couple of big time throws
30:10
Speaker 2: that you're just you're just like, wow, but you're right.
30:13
Speaker 2: Something something's a little off with this four nine ers team.
30:15
Speaker 2: But it's so early in the year. It's like, you know,
30:18
Speaker 2: as long as they can keep treading water, no team's
30:20
Speaker 2: going to want to have to play them in the playoffs.
30:21
Speaker 2: That there's just there's just so much talent for that
30:23
Speaker 2: team across the board.
30:24
Speaker 1: Quick scoot Roulette, because we did forget to include this
30:27
Speaker 1: in our last episode. We did Simon, You're on Pittsburgh
30:31
Speaker 1: tonight two and a half point favorites against the Cowboys.
30:35
Speaker 1: I'm on New Orleans at plus five and a half.
30:37
Speaker 1: The truth is I meant to forget, so we could
30:40
Speaker 1: be on these two teams and we could still include
30:43
Speaker 1: it on Sunday and it would still be relevant for
30:46
Speaker 1: the weekend ahead.
30:47
Speaker 2: Are we about three and one or are we two
30:49
Speaker 2: and two?
30:50
Speaker 1: Oh my god, you're killing me. I've had a terrible year.
30:53
Speaker 1: I think I'm one in three. You might be three
30:55
Speaker 1: and one or two and two.
30:57
Speaker 2: All right, cool toms.
30:59
Speaker 1: We got to talk about some lines, like already, Simon, Yeah,
31:06
Speaker 1: San Francisco is a three point favorite on the road
31:09
Speaker 1: at Seattle. That's Thursday Night. Fortunately, we don't have to
31:12
Speaker 1: take that because you kind of want to bet Thursday
31:15
Speaker 1: Night favorites more than you might want to bet division dogs.
31:19
Speaker 2: It's already minus one twenty two. I bet through six
31:22
Speaker 2: to five.
31:22
Speaker 1: So if we want to get it, get it now.
31:24
Speaker 2: How about your Bears team going to London off to
31:26
Speaker 2: big blow out win and the.
31:28
Speaker 1: Bears are one and a half point favorites these London teams.
31:32
Speaker 2: We usually take the favorites, but aren't we supposed to
31:34
Speaker 2: take the Jags at plus money before they flip to
31:37
Speaker 2: a favorite.
31:38
Speaker 1: Do you think that's what's going to happen?
31:39
Speaker 2: I do, But that's a tricky one just because the
31:43
Speaker 2: Bears they just look so good defensively right now, Well.
31:47
Speaker 1: We don't have to rush like the Bears do look
31:49
Speaker 1: amazing defensively.
31:50
Speaker 2: I'm grabbing the plus one plus one fifteen plus one
31:54
Speaker 2: twenty right now on the Jaguars money line, just in
31:56
Speaker 2: case they do flip to a favorite.
31:58
Speaker 1: Okay, all right, dot of mine net. I'm looking at
32:01
Speaker 1: the board right now. God, these games are just terrible.
32:09
Speaker 1: What is sticking out to you?
32:10
Speaker 2: I would say there's a couple of interesting lines. One
32:13
Speaker 2: that jumps out right away. Ravens are at home minus
32:16
Speaker 2: six and a half against Washington.
32:18
Speaker 1: I was going to ask you about that one.
32:20
Speaker 2: How I mean, how do we not bet Washington? Like
32:23
Speaker 2: that's the scariest part of the books. Put these numbers
32:26
Speaker 2: and it's like they know exactly what I want to do,
32:30
Speaker 2: professionals want to do, and what the betting public wants
32:32
Speaker 2: to do. And the betting public right now is like
32:35
Speaker 2: give me all I can to the Commanders team this
32:37
Speaker 2: This Ravens defense seems like they can't stop really good offenses.
32:42
Speaker 2: Right We've seen it time and time again. Now, So
32:45
Speaker 2: that's that's an interesting number. That's a lot of respect
32:47
Speaker 2: to a Ravens team. Maybe I'm maybe I'm thinking, maybe
32:52
Speaker 2: I'm wrong thinking this way, but I'm grabbing the plus
32:54
Speaker 2: six now plus six and a half now the commanders.
32:56
Speaker 2: I know it's more and our public sides and if eventually,
33:00
Speaker 2: if we end up on the Ravens, we do. But
33:02
Speaker 2: Chad knows my view on this. Once it gets above three,
33:05
Speaker 2: I almost always fade Lamar, and this year I'm one
33:09
Speaker 2: to Oh. I took the Raiders against him in this
33:12
Speaker 2: exact spot, So I don't think the books. I said
33:15
Speaker 2: same thing this week when I took Jane Daniels. Again,
33:18
Speaker 2: I don't think the books caught up to it. But
33:20
Speaker 2: even I don't know what the hell to do with it.
33:22
Speaker 2: Like this kid is playing at such an insanely high level.
33:24
Speaker 2: It's it's bizarre. Even Washington defense. Now, I mean they
33:28
Speaker 2: dominated that offensive line in Cleveland. So yeah, it's a
33:33
Speaker 2: bizarre world. So that one jumped out. Dallas Cowboys are
33:37
Speaker 2: plus three against the Lions at home. Do we not
33:43
Speaker 2: just take the Lions right now? At minus three? How
33:46
Speaker 2: does this not go up?
33:48
Speaker 1: Yeah, especially after tonight, especially.
33:51
Speaker 2: After tonight that we think because we think Pittsburgh is
33:53
Speaker 2: gonna win, and.
33:54
Speaker 1: I think Detroit is finally starting to sort of recognize
33:57
Speaker 1: its power and play to its ability. I loved them
34:00
Speaker 1: last week against He was perfect. Jared Goff was perfect,
34:04
Speaker 1: literally perfect Jared.
34:06
Speaker 2: I don't need to talk about him. Detroit fans gotten
34:08
Speaker 2: mad about him because we didn't bet that game, but
34:10
Speaker 2: it was It was crazy how perfect he was against Seattle.
34:12
Speaker 1: The Lions are playing fourteen games essentially indoors. You know,
34:19
Speaker 1: I'm counting this Cowboys game as indoor. I don't know
34:21
Speaker 1: if it'll be the roof will be closed or not,
34:23
Speaker 1: but it's a fast field and ideal conditions. And I
34:30
Speaker 1: think this team has a lot of confidence right now.
34:32
Speaker 1: And I think they also recognize they got to keep
34:35
Speaker 1: pace with Minnesota and if they can really be the
34:39
Speaker 1: team to beat. They got a lead on Detroit, on
34:43
Speaker 1: San Francisco, they got it on Philadelphia that you know,
34:47
Speaker 1: they got to figure out. Like Washington, the questions are
34:49
Speaker 1: still out there, so they got to keep winning to
34:53
Speaker 1: keep pace. And I think it's a really good team
34:55
Speaker 1: right now. So totally agree with you.
34:57
Speaker 2: Yeah, that division is brutal, though, I mean, even your
35:00
Speaker 2: Bears teams we're saying they're the worst team in that division.
35:03
Speaker 2: They're gonna be really good once they started playing divisional
35:06
Speaker 2: games come November December. Like you just see it every week,
35:09
Speaker 2: even Killer Williams, Like, you know, he did a couple
35:12
Speaker 2: of things today that were really stupid, but overall, a
35:15
Speaker 2: couple of his throws, a couple of his move like
35:17
Speaker 2: his movement in the pocket, it's like it was pretty good. Yeah,
35:20
Speaker 2: it looked really good. And I know it's against Carolina,
35:23
Speaker 2: but it's like, still, that's stuff you want to see
35:26
Speaker 2: him do. It doesn't matter how bad the team is.
35:27
Speaker 2: It's like he made some big time throws in that matchup. So, yeah,
35:31
Speaker 2: the lines, you're right, I think, you know, just at
35:35
Speaker 2: this number. I hate being on a favorite, especially this
35:38
Speaker 2: type of scenario. I know everyone that everyone's gonna be
35:41
Speaker 2: betting them in this spot, but it's like, don't we
35:43
Speaker 2: have to take this number? Isn't this a really good number?
35:45
Speaker 2: It just minus three? I just if if the Steelers
35:49
Speaker 2: roll tonight, if they win by ten, how does this
35:52
Speaker 2: not get up the four and a half?
35:53
Speaker 1: Yeall, it's moving immediately.
35:56
Speaker 2: Yeah, there's two other games that jump out to do
36:00
Speaker 2: you see them or no?
36:01
Speaker 1: Well, there's I'm curious what yours are gonna be. I
36:07
Speaker 1: like Tampa Bay at two and a half against New Orleans.
36:12
Speaker 1: I'm curious about tomorrow night. Obviously, I'm very tempted by
36:21
Speaker 1: the Patriots plus seven, just bet I'm already.
36:25
Speaker 2: Yeah. When you guys mentioned it a text a runner,
36:28
Speaker 2: I was like, Oh, just go bet this for me?
36:30
Speaker 2: Why not?
36:31
Speaker 1: It's already minus one oh five, so it's gonna move
36:33
Speaker 1: to six and a half very soon. I was the
36:37
Speaker 1: one that stood out to me, to be honest.
36:41
Speaker 2: Yeah, So just a game that jumped out to me
36:43
Speaker 2: is just this. The Bengals are minus three and a
36:47
Speaker 2: half on Sunday Night against the Giants. Do you think
36:51
Speaker 2: the public's gonna buy this Giants team? You think they're
36:53
Speaker 2: gonna bet them? Or what? Do you what do you
36:54
Speaker 2: think is happened with that number. I'm not to see
36:55
Speaker 2: what your view of it would be.
36:58
Speaker 1: I don't m it's a good question.
37:06
Speaker 2: He's a funny line where it's like, I immediately want
37:08
Speaker 2: to bet the Giants like this this since the defense
37:11
Speaker 2: you talked about they're really bad. They're bad, Like when
37:14
Speaker 2: when will a back door not be open against them?
37:16
Speaker 2: Even Carolina a terrible team almost backdoored them, So it's
37:21
Speaker 2: like our reason for love and since he's all on
37:23
Speaker 2: Joe Burrow, but you know, he's not gonna be able
37:27
Speaker 2: to do what he did consistently in that game, Like
37:29
Speaker 2: that was even for him, a fluky game.
37:32
Speaker 1: And the Giants d line is really good.
37:34
Speaker 2: That's why I loved about him coming to the year.
37:36
Speaker 2: It's like, that's the only thing I could build my
37:38
Speaker 2: hat on. Was like, what's what's why would I like
37:40
Speaker 2: this team? It's like, how can they not be good
37:42
Speaker 2: up front? They have so many good players that can
37:45
Speaker 2: get to the quarterback and stop the run in their
37:47
Speaker 2: front four. But yeah, I'm just shocked this this number
37:51
Speaker 2: open plus three and a half. Clearly the books know
37:54
Speaker 2: that people come in the Bengals, but you know, I
37:57
Speaker 2: have this number two and a half. I thought they
37:58
Speaker 2: would open it at three and get Bengals money then
38:01
Speaker 2: move it up. But yeah, them opening up plus three
38:03
Speaker 2: and a half on the Giants, I'll take a little
38:05
Speaker 2: bit of that.
38:07
Speaker 1: I think there's one more game that's semi interesting to me.
38:12
Speaker 1: I don't mind Green Bay minus.
38:14
Speaker 2: Five green BA at home against the Cardinals.
38:18
Speaker 1: Against the Cardinals, I like this to me.
38:22
Speaker 2: Oh, right after that, Cardinals win.
38:25
Speaker 1: Yeah, like that, Cardinals win.
38:27
Speaker 2: Right.
38:27
Speaker 1: The Packers escaped in a really tough spot in which
38:31
Speaker 1: they didn't play well. Jordan Love continues to get a
38:35
Speaker 1: little bit better. He made some spectacular throws, he made
38:38
Speaker 1: some really good runs. The Packers defense continues to be opportunistic.
38:43
Speaker 1: The Cardinals continue to be the kind of team that
38:46
Speaker 1: makes mistakes and puts themselves in position to have other
38:51
Speaker 1: teams be opportunistic against them. I'm not afraid of the five,
38:58
Speaker 1: and in fact, I think it might come down because
39:00
Speaker 1: of how well the Cardinals played. But that was the spot,
39:04
Speaker 1: you know, like the Cardinals are the kind of team
39:06
Speaker 1: where you know when they're going to be competitive against
39:11
Speaker 1: the Niners on the road in the division as big dogs,
39:14
Speaker 1: is when they're going to be competitive. And as you
39:17
Speaker 1: pointed out, this game might be thirty to ten if
39:21
Speaker 1: the forty nine ers have a kicker, right.
39:24
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's that's interesting to open that a five point
39:27
Speaker 2: dog in that spot. So yeah, it seems like the
39:30
Speaker 2: books are getting a little bit a little bit more
39:32
Speaker 2: respect that to this Backers team. I mean, you're right,
39:35
Speaker 2: I can see this, I could h.
39:38
Speaker 1: You think it'll go up?
39:40
Speaker 2: It could I'm trying to think right now if this,
39:42
Speaker 2: if this is going to be a big side but
39:45
Speaker 2: that the public really likes. But I think people, if
39:47
Speaker 2: you bet green Bay, aren't you feeling like you got
39:50
Speaker 2: away with one there? Like we talked about totally.
39:52
Speaker 1: That's what I mean. Yeah, so it could, it could
39:54
Speaker 1: go down like but I think I'm going to like
39:58
Speaker 1: green Bay this week, just eyeballing it right now, Like
40:02
Speaker 1: we get to Tuesday and I'm probably gonna have a
40:05
Speaker 1: different opinion.
40:06
Speaker 2: Well, they cleaned up. This is the four bets I'm on.
40:08
Speaker 2: I took the Giants home dog plus three and a half,
40:11
Speaker 2: taking the Lions on the road minus three against the Cowboys,
40:16
Speaker 2: taking Washington plus six and a half on the road
40:18
Speaker 2: against the Ravens. And I think Chad's joining me. We're
40:21
Speaker 2: both taking the Patriots plus seven.
40:23
Speaker 1: We are, That's what's happening.
40:26
Speaker 2: A lot of early bets.
40:28
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