Latest / The Crazy Sheet - CFB Handicapping / Episode 35: Week 4 College Football Betting Preview

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Episode 35: Week 4 College Football Betting Preview · The Crazy Sheet - CFB Handicapping

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Ladies and gentlemen, boys and girls, fans of all ages, it's your
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favorite time of the week. You might need to brace yourself and grab a
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cold beverage. Mark and Scott are ready to drop some college football betting knowledge
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on your gass. The boys are back and ready to help you find some
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angles to beat your book, impress your friends, and get you ready to
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enjoy the greatest sport on the planet. So sit back and enjoy, because
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we're damn happy to have you. Welcome to the Crazy Sheet, Ladies and
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gentlemen, boys and girls. As your favorite time a week when you download
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the Crazy Sheets, get some cold to shrink, and you buckle in,
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and you get ready to talk to some college football with your boys. Scotty
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and Mark. I'm here in the podcasting studio in Scott. I can see
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your fancy face sitting in your car. How the hell are your brother,
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man? I'm good in my rental car. I'm trying to do some work.
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It's hopefully I'm generating as much revenue as I did last Saturday on the
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gambling front, because that was a good day and I needed a good day.
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It was a good day, you know. We talked about it being
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a weekend where a lot of people wouldn't watch, and as that always seems
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to happen, there's opportunities there. I thought we were gonna have some upsets.
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You had some big names have some clunkers, but they got through the
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weekend. It was an interesting watch Alabama, there was a lot going on.
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I mean, that's probably been the talk between that and Prime. That's
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been the talk of just about everything with Alabama last week trying to start both
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their backup quarterbacks and Buckner and Simpson. Simpson looked better, Buttling looked terrible,
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and so in Alabama's offensive lines got some problem in South Florida was in
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that game throughout the game, and I'm sure that made practice a lot of
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fun in Tesca Lousive this week. Yeah, I can imagine that. It
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looked like Sabans just kind of took that deal over and said here's the direction
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we're going. How by Lane Kiffin rolling out that bars Robinson's calling played calling
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defense not uh steal. So I'm like, I, you know, and
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then Saban's got to address it. That's going to be a fascinating game this
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weekend that I think the Georgia South Carolina game was equally surprising because it wasn't
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that's how good South Carolina looked as more of how bad Georgia looked. I
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thought so too, and George's banged uh yeah, And I thought that was
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an interesting thing. As everybody knows. I went to the LSU Mississippi State
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game that I got to tell you the Tigers look exactly like who I thought
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they would be before the season. I think people reading too much into that
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Florida State FSU LSU game. The way that the score is bigger than that
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game was farther apart, and there's just a couple of plays that swung that
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game and really made it big. But LSU didn't execute down inside the red
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zone either. I think it's more a testament to how good f SU is
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and because that LSU team I saw is as good as advertised. They did
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move Perkins back where he could pressure the quarterback spaces, didn't even play or
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didn't play much if he played, And I just got to tell you they
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looked good. That's the best Jadan Daniels has ever looked to me. I
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know everybody is talking about Neighbors, who was a Mississippi State commit, forever
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and then and then went to LSU right at signing day. I think Neighbors
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had a great game, but he's talented that that's not the point. Mississippi
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State played man to man coverage on him three times and three touchdown long touchdowns,
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and the coverage was fine all three times. I mean, it's not
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like he was busted wide open. Two of those three Jane Daniels make through
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darts and now all three of them were great throws. You can't play any
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better than Daniels played last week. He was outstanding. And if he can
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play remotely close to that level for the bulk of the year, man,
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they're gonna be They're gonna be hard to handle. They might be the best
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team in the West right now as I see it, which we'll get into
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you know FSU and what we think about them this week, But LSU is
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still a good football team and you do not need to write them off for
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that loss early. I think it is really now. I think we talked
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about this last week when someone said, you know, FSU needs to be
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LSU's bigg as fan. I will tall some of LSU keep playing way they
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did, and yeah, FSU can lose and not gonna not gonna drop anywhere
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that they're a good football team. I thought the I thought Coach Prime's response
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to the late hit in that ball game what I would even call a cheap
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shot from the safety. I think on Hunter is you know you gotta you
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gotta understand if you're gonna run your k cool all week about it being personal,
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well, the other guys are gonna take it personal too, And that's
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exactly what happened. Was it chippy one hundred percent on both sides? And
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I I thought that I did think that the hit was cheap. I did
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think it was dirty. I don't know how in the world you can throw
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somebody out for targeting and not throw them out for that. But you know
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that that's just to me another problem with targeting and tossing guys. I mean,
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you watch Sean Preston is gonna miss the first half from Mississippi State this
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weekend, and he gets getting the stomach. I mean really, I mean,
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this dude got a separated got a lacerated liver. But I thought Prime's
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response to that, on which, first off, can we say death threats
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to a college athlete are the dumbest damn thing. Ever, if you are
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an idiot doing that, you literally ought to be put in prison. I
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mean, you're just so stupid that you can't be a functional member of society.
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If you're that mad at a football game and you're above nineteen years old
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and you're hammered an afternity dude sitting in the student section, I mean,
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you're you're just an idiot. I mean, giving kids death threats, I
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mean, come on, I mean, And I love how he responded.
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I love our Colorado responded in general to all of that. I think Prime
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knew, hey man, Chippy's Chippy. We're gonna play with some edge,
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and those guys did too. I like the response of it, Like said,
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I like how Prime's running this program. A lot of people don't.
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I don't have a problem with I don't either. He knows what he's get
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himself into and how he's putting it out there. So but as we talked
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about it, this week is when it's all going to start for Colorado and
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we're gonna find out how real or unreal that team is. They are the
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biggest polarizing draw in college football today. But I think it's good for football.
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You know, as we get it further into it, we're gonna find
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out as the Pac twelve as good as we think they may be, could
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we see someone else come out of the ACC what's going on in the SEC?
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And oh, by the way, if you want a little sneaker,
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maybe put you some pizza money down on Oklahoma to have a chance to play
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for the national championship. I know there's a lot of season left, but
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fifty bucks you can still get you something close to twenty to one out there
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at some shops. Might not be a bad investment, because I'm telling you
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right now, from what I have seen, as we are twenty five percent
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the way through the schedule, it's wide open at the top. You know,
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the last couple of years it's been really peavy, but right now I've
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seen a lot of really good teams, you know, from twelve all the
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way up. This would be I know we've got a lot of football left,
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but this would be the first time since you and I've been doing this
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that if there was a twelve team playoff, this would be the first time
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I could actually see twelve teams that we could put in there and get a
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good tournament out of it. Based on what we've seen on the field so
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far. I agree with you, Washington is as good as advertised. They
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went on the road just absolutely smoke, showed a mid level Big ten team.
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They're legit. They've got a legit chance to make the Natty. I
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think, depending on what happens down the road, like we talked about last
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week, but them, I can certainly see them in order. I mean
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them in usc boat making the playoff if they have one win, because their
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scores are just going to be so impressive. But again, there's a lot
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of football left, a lot of injuries determine this. A lot of teams
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are good and in September, and it gets down to depth and things like
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that when you get to know, and that obviously is gonna affect a lot.
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But I thought the games last week were great. I love some of
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the some of the things that that went on. So it was a it
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was a good week. I mean not at four for us Mark. That
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was a big week. We talked about a bunch of games. I mean
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that was a huge deal. I think the biggest surprise to me of the
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entire weekend not that four to one, but how they just kicked Tennessee all
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over the field and shout out the Grand Mrtz on the Hotti Award for the
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week. If you have not seen his girlfriend, he did his worth.
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It is worth an internet search. She is a smoke show. Kudos to
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Grand Merchs for winning in life and winning in football because that is a pretty
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solid performance on both on both fronts for young Grand Murts. He has two
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good games in his five year career that we can Yeah, right, how
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about Ohio getting the straight up win against Iowa State. I felt like that
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was a legit possibility. The Scarlet Knights, Baby or three and oh headed
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to the Big House. Love it, I love it. There's some really
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like I said, there's some top heavy teams. There's some bad team Arizona
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State, Holy Cow, Landing, Fresno State, Wax those guys. But
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they're down to their four string quarterback at this point, and it's gonna be
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a long season for those guys out there because there's some really good teams that
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they're gonna be matched up against. I think the MAX good. I think
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the Max better than I thought the MAC was gonna be. So I'm excited
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about that. Sun Belt's gonna be interesting as we get some things rolling.
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Let me ask you this question real quick. As I said, twenty five
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percent of the way through the schedule, we still have a long long way
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to go. What are two things that are hot topics that you do not
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think we will be talking about in another three weeks from now as we get
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to the Midway Park for the season Colorado. I agree with that. I
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agree with that that is number one. Oh, I don't know three weeks
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gets it gets it there, But based on what I've seen to this point,
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I don't think you're gonna be talking about Alabama. I was gonna be
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my number two. And I think you will not be talking about Clemson again
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unless it's demise of their program after Saturday. Interesting. Interesting. I would
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agree with you all those three things. I think that you're in three more
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weeks from now, But I also want to ask you something I think we
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could be talking about three weeks from now is A and M. Because I
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think A and M will be undefeated. I think they will have not lost
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another game when they host Alabama, and three weeks from now, and if
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BAMA comes out here and plays like they did against South Florida, I think
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I think the Aggies could figure how to get it done, and A and
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M will be in the national picture at that point in time and the midway
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point through the season, and so yeah, it's it's it's And let me
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just say that that really helps the acc again if that happens, FSU beats
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Miami to get him at home, they beat him at home, and the
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Yaggies do that, say Yeaggi's go ten and two again. More strength,
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more just momentum right behind some of holes. So I think things are setting
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up really well for Florida State. He's not this Saturday can go a long
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way to determining if he is going to be much like much like Sark and
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that figure out a way to not get in the playoffs. Well, you
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know we're gonna talk about that game when we get to it, so I'll
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just hold it there. But I'm excited this Cottage football season is shaping up.
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Somebody asked me their to day, They said, what was Is this
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gonna be wild? I said wild. The scottge football season ever was two
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thousand and seven, when at one point you looked up in Kansas and South
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Florida were ranked number one and two or two and three, and I was
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like what in the fuck is going on? But that's when we had all
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crazy upsets last weekend. I mean, all West Virginia had to do was
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beat pit with everybody. I mean, you know, with a great football
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team, and they just blow up right at the right at the end of
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that ball game, just because I was crazier and Lesticles getting a two lost
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Natty. That was a crazy Scotty. That's all I got for the recap.
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That seems like that was forever ago. I bet on like seventeen games
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since then, suffering through of NFL slate. And I will only mention this
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because of your favorite team in the Pittsburgh Steelers, But fucking a can that
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team screw up and undercover with two defensive touchdowns in a seventy one yard Carl
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Pickings touchdown? I mean, what in the world that team is terrible terrible
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on offense. Canada. I'm gonna have to find this stat as I am
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bemoaning Canada, but I don't know. You have two options if you're the
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Pittburg Steelers. Either Matt Canada sucks or Kenny Pickett sucks, because both of
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them can't are those are mutually exclusive? If you think he's the quarterback of
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the future, then you better go get a new coordinator because he looks like
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hot garbage two weeks in a row. I know he's played two good defenses,
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and I know it's early in the season, but man if I hear
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one more announcer, color guy, sideline guy, or reporter say how good
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Pittsburgh looked in the preseason, the preseason doesn't mean jack shit. I mean
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they were playing starters when a lot of other teams were playing backups. None
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of that matters. He is, Oh, Matt, Canada's terrible. That
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offense is just absolutely atrocious, and I don't know, I really don't know
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what they're gonna do up from from a from an offensive standpoint, here's the
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stat I wanted to tell you. The Pittsburgh Steelers did not run an offensive
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play with inside the Browns thirty yard line and still one. You know how
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hard that in the NFL. I mean, they're better. Be glad they
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got t. J. Watt And look, Hot Smith's playing great too.
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Those two were those two were fast approaching being the best tandem defenders in the
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NFL. They're both good. I mean, they're they are playmakers. Steelers
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don't have a great defense around them. They just got a couple of really
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good players, especially with Hayward out on the defensive line. But last night
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was wild, And how would you like to be the Cleveland Browns? You
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have? What did they drop two hundred and seventy million or something crazy on
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him? Yeah, guaranteed something nuts. Yeah if you watched him throw the
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football last night, that don't look like that kind of guy to me.
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Anybody that wants to tell me Dak Prescott getting better than that can take a
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flying kiss at my ass because I want. I can't take anymore Dak Prescott.
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He drives me crazy. Anyway. Moving on, let's get to college
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football. Thursday night, Georgia's state will be traveling up to play on the
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turquoise turf as they go out to the Dirty Myrtle while they'll be playing Coastal
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Carolina here over under here is sixty three Coastals laying six and a half.
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Both these teams are scoring over thirty five points a game, giving up sixteen
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to twenty four points respectively. Georgia States three and oh Coastals two and one.
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Georgia States two and one against the number and Coastals three and oh against
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the number. Looking at this when both these teams are heavy turn are heavy
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in the turnover margin, schedules have not been difficult thus far for both of
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these squads that you got. I think this game is gonna be a shootout.
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I'm gonna let you tell me how we're gonna play the sun Belt Thursday
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night game. Belt is gonna be my upset play of the week. I
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think both these offenses are good. I think both these offenses are gonna be
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able to score on the other team. You look statistically be to one of
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them are giving up very many points, both of them scoring almost forty a
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game. I think both these teams are gonna be able to move the football.
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There's some weaknesses on that defense that are strengths of the other team.
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So I really like the opportunity that I for Coastal. But here's what I
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think the difference is. George State has got a pretty good run defense,
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better than I think people realize. And this is one of the reasons that
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I like this team and in the underdog I think it makes them one dimensional
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on while they're bad in past defense, I think that allows them to focus
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essentially on the past, making Coastal throw the football more even though they got
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a dynamic quarterback. So I think that's the deal. McCall. I think
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it's going to be forced into throwing the ball a lot. I think this
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turns into a shootout. I just like anytime that I've got a chance where
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I think both teams are gonna score and it's gonna be a shootout. You
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got a chance for an upset, and that's what I like about this ball
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games. I like Georgia States my upset play the week getting to one money
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as well. I'm gonna lean over here in this one as well. But
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I do like Georgia State and this and Georgia State can throw the right man.
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This is a team that has not been d one for very long,
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and they were the worst team in the country when they first came up,
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and I like what they've got going here. I'm gonna go Georgia State with
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you plus six and a half Scotty next thing. I like the over.
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I like the over in this too. So if somebody looking for something fun,
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you do your you know, a parlay or whatever, but this is
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a I do like this over too, just as you bring it up,
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But I do think George State's gotta win. If you look for a good
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money line parlay, this is worth the risk. I mean a good money
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line underdog. This is worth the risk. I would never recommend a part
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from kidding. I flame every weekend like a dumbass. Anyway, next game,
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I want to go to Scotty GI Tech Wake Forrest, two teams that
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we have been on. Why in the hell do I keep betting on Wake
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Forrest? I have no idea Georgia Tech. This is a much improved team.
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Haynes King's playing. You know, they've played well throughout the first couple
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of weeks this season. It's obviously you But tell me Lane wanted to cover
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the game last week. Rank Giffin definitely wanted to cover that number last week.
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Just that why hey, no, damn doubt he was trying to cover
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that number. At the end of the game. We totally got hosed on
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the cover, but go ahead. So anyway, he's done that two weeks
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in a row, by the way, and it's obvious that he knows what
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he's doing. But I like this game. Wake Forrest still plays that slowmash
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tempo, likes to thought downfield, They've had a little trouble getting the offense
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rolling, but they're still averaging thirty three points a game. Georgia Tech's coming
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in here averaging thirty five points a game, but they can't stop anybody.
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I think this will be a much even more evenly matched game. I like
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the over I got it at fifty eight. It's been released obviously by service.
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Now I think it's up to sixty. I would still play it up
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to sixty sixty one in this spot, but I like the over here.
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I think this one's gonna be a shootout. This is a conference game.
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This is a game most of the people in this conference are gonna be paying
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attention to on I guarantee you the watching of this game Saturday night at six
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thirty is gonna be low. But if you've got a Georgia Tech team here
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that's fired up, they've got some win, they've got a win under their
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belt, they're feeling some momentum, I'm gonna roll with them in this spot.
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Let's go over sixty in the total. I think we got a shoot
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out in this one. This number one of the ways I really like to
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figure where the average is on scoring defense, points allow things like that shakeout.
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This shakes out right at sixty one. Yeah, and so I agree
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with you. I'm with you. Anything at sixty one and under. I
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think it's a buy on that spot. So definitely like the over in that
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one. Let's see, Scotty, what do we guys our next game.
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I'm not talking about the Mississippi State South Carolina games, so you can just
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scroll through that one if you want to out people is that game doesn't go
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under. South Carolina blows Mississippi stayed out. I expect that game going next
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two games I got are still in the ACC. Florida States traveling two Clemson.
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It's an eleven o'clock kickoff. This is a huge game in Clemson South
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Carolina, probably the biggest home game they've had there since Lamar Jackson played for
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Louisville and they went up and played this game in the spot. Clemson has
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owned this series as of recent years. Florida State's coming in here. They
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are laying two and a half points on the road over under total. Here's
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fifty five, Florida State scoring forty seven, giving up twenty two. They're
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three and oh straight up two and one against the number Clemson's scoring forty given
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up nineteen. They're two and one strip one and two against the number.
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This is an interesting spot. You've got Florida State as a road dog,
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I've excuse me, road favorite, and Clemson's not even ranked. They looked
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so bad the first week and a half two weeks that literally they're not getting
21:56
AP votes. It's kind of strange to me. But where I'm out on
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this one is I like Florida State. I think Florida State's dynamic. I
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think they're playing with an edge. They've got a chip on their shoulder in
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this spot. Coming into this one. They've been blown out by Clemson a
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couple of times in this spot hasn't been competitive. I think they go up
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to Clemson realize what they you know, last week they got it done against
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Boston College. I think they move on through and keep everything rolling. I
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think everybody's gonna remember, you know where all these points coming from from Clemson.
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When I told you they were averaging forty some odd points a game.
22:33
Well, they've beat a bad Florida Atlantic team and they scored sixty six against
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Charleston Southern. I think this is gonna be a fantastic football game. I'm
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going to Florida State. I know they didn't looked good against Boston College last
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week was on the road, it was the Red Bandana game. You had
22:48
some weather issues that never shook out. But then I also got worried this
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week that there were a lot of Florida State players that might have been a
22:55
little under the weather last week. And so you've got to go out there
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and you gotta win your clunkers. But the thing, and it's different from
23:00
me here is is that I don't know how Clemson is going to exploit the
23:04
Florida State defense. I don't see the explosion. I mean, Will Shipley
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is the most explosive player they got, and he's very reliable, but he's
23:12
not Christian McCaffrey. And I'm only saying that because the white to a white
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I get it. But Florida State, they've got some edge guys that can
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go. I think Jordan Travis is his third year to start, you know,
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the game is slowed down for him. You could see it in that
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LSU game. After he got settled in, he was able to get it
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rolling. I don't know. I think Clemson's front seven is still strong,
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but I don't know from the back four perspective, if they can cover these
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guys, give me the knowles all day, baby, just doing the shop,
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get it done. I'll take the knowles by us two and a half.
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If Travis is healthy, which he got a little banged up last week.
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If he's healthy Saturday, they've drilled these guys. Look, you're doing
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my Shipley. He's not better than Benson. I mean, that's the bottom
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line. You look at the skill positions in this ball game. Tell me
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where and I'm gonna include defensive line in the skill positions. Tell me where
24:06
Clemson is better. It's not defensive line. At Florida State, defensive line
24:11
looks really, really good. It's certainly is not wide receiver, and I
24:15
don't think it's running back, and it's certainly not quarterback, and it's not
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defensive backs. I believe Florida State has a significant a significant talent edge and
24:26
for the first time, and this is why I think they're going to go
24:30
drill those guys. They're able to compete and if not compete, the better
24:36
at both lines of scrimmage. And that's not happened. Their offensive line has
24:40
been bad since help since before Jimbo left. I mean, it really am
24:44
been good since James was there until now, and now it's getting to be
24:48
all legitimate offensive line again. And that's the difference to me and this team.
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And I just really like I really like this team's ability to get out,
24:57
moved the football, throw the football, big wide receivers, and I
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think not hitting the portal and not being as big of an NIL player as
25:07
they should be, I think that is gonna get shown for the problem that
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it is. I think Florida State may hammer to these guys. They might
25:14
make a statement for number one in the country. I definitely could see that
25:18
here. I really I like Florida State a lot. And I'm not just
25:19
riding that trenth that LSU game. I just think this team is better.
25:23
I agree with you on the Clemson front. This team they couldn't explode the
25:26
last couple of years and that's really been the difference for them. So Florida
25:30
State, baby, get this win. I need this. If they're gonna
25:33
win the ACC, let's stay in the ACC. Scotty, We've got a
25:37
nighttime game. Nobody's gonna watch unless unless your kids are playing. North Carolina
25:41
is playing Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh is getting seven, seven and a half at home
25:47
over under here is fifty. I'm just gonna get to the chase in this
25:49
when North Carolina, to me, is so much better than I thought they
25:53
were gonna be. They lost downs, You've got a new offensive coordinator,
25:57
the defense was garbage. We talked about all these things. This is a
26:02
good football team, I mean, legitimate good football team. Pittsburgh, on
26:06
the other hand, looks broken. Drakovic looks terrible. Nard Dog has leaned
26:11
on that defense for so long, and they still have a pretty solid unit.
26:15
But again, they don't have any playmakers. And I think you and
26:19
c can bottle this team up, and it's gonna be able to exploit that.
26:22
That's not a home field advantage when you're playing at pitt especially after they
26:26
lost the backyard brawl last week. And so I like what we've got here,
26:32
and so I'm gonna take North Carolina minus the seven. I bought the
26:36
hook. I got it earlier in the week. But if you have to
26:37
buy the hook, I think North Carolina covers this. I'mna tell you this
26:41
is a loop real quick. Just a little rumor I heard this week.
26:45
So We've heard all the talk that Drake May was gonna transfer. He even
26:48
looked at Bama last year. Blah blah blah blah blah. Supposedly the reason
26:53
he was saying that was because he didn't want to play for long Ago anymore.
26:57
And when long Ago took the job and went to Wisconsin, that's what
27:02
made him decide to come back and play for MAC. And I was like,
27:04
well, it makes some sense. And Wisconsin looks terrible currently and Mordecai
27:08
looks worse than he has at Oklahoma. Riss I you and Longo system.
27:12
I thought that was interesting. Doesn't have a going to do it this game.
27:15
Give me the tar heels to roll over Pittsburgh Saturday night. Yeah,
27:21
I think they're gonna win this game. I saw stat and I know you
27:25
saw this earlier in the week. Carolina's twelve and three the last fifteen against
27:30
the spread on these guys. That's an interesting yostat right there, because had
27:37
I not read it. Yeah, and there's been some good pistol. I
27:38
agree with North Carolina here. This team is playing better. So bottom line
27:44
is I think they go up gets cover pit did not look good last week.
27:48
I just think they are probably out manned. Great good quarterback play can
27:52
make a difference, and I think they have such a wide advantage there because
27:56
the coovid is not looking good. As you said, Scotty, let's go
28:00
out West midday game at two thirty. Here it is Colorado Oregon over under
28:07
here seventy and a half. Oregon is now laying twenty and a half.
28:11
When you listen to this, if it is still twenty and a half,
28:15
go bet Oregon minus twenty one is what I'm gonna tell you. I think
28:18
this game is gonna get out of hand, and it's gonna get out of
28:22
hand quickly. The offensive line for Colorado is a problem. Shoulders Sanders is
28:27
a freak, and I honestly think that guy has a great chance to play
28:30
in the NFL. I don't think he'll go this year. I think he'll
28:33
come one more year back with his dad. But that offensive line is big.
28:37
Good of an athlete as he is. He's still been sacked twelve times,
28:41
and it's not like they're playing the steal curtain defense here. This is
28:45
gonna be the best unit they've seen. On the flip side, you're getting
28:49
Voe Nicks at home with this Oregon team. I think they're right. I
28:53
think they're healthy. I think they've heard all the talk and think about this.
28:59
Colorado is still literally it's Wednesday as we record, and people are still
29:03
talking about the Colorado State game, Primes having to address it in the media,
29:07
all this other stuff. They have to be in Eugene on Friday.
29:11
You haven't heard one word out of the University of Oregon about this game.
29:17
Not one. The only thing you've heard about this game is that Phil Knight
29:19
gave him some shoes that changed colors. And that's the only thing I have
29:23
read about them this week. Give me the Ducks to roll the dog shit
29:29
out of Colorado. And if this game gets out of hand, I don't
29:30
think Colorado's got the talent to stretch it back in. You've lost. It's
29:34
like you said coming in the season with Travis Hunter, they didn't lose one
29:37
starter. Last week, they lost two. They lost their best corner and
29:41
their best wide receiver. And they can't run the ball. They have been
29:44
able to run the ball season, They're not gonna be able to do it
29:45
here. Yep, that's exactly right. And I think that you know,
29:51
I look, when you look statistically at this game because Colorado has plays some
29:56
real competition, so this isn't where you can mix. And you know,
30:00
they played a Big ten team, they played a their biggest rival, probably
30:07
an end state rival, and then they played a big twelve team. So
30:11
you get legitimate statistics on these guys. These are November statistics on them.
30:15
Their statistics on defense are just absolutely attrocious. They're giving up over six yards
30:21
a carry. I don't know what you're gonna do. I don't know how
30:26
in the world you're gonna stop Oregon if you give up six yards of carry.
30:30
I just don't know how that's gonna happen. And look, this offense,
30:37
as you said, with the sacks, the offensive line is just simply
30:41
not a part. This is a good organ front too, and on the
30:45
defensive side of the football, so I want to talk about that as well.
30:48
I think Oregon is going to gas can these guys. And let me
30:52
be really clear, they've been where all three of these games, they been
31:00
the TCU and they've been home twice. They have not played in an environment
31:04
like they're going up to at Organs woud yea. And even though it's from
31:10
the gigantic stadium, not one hundred thousand people. They are right on top
31:12
of that field. I think Oregon pounds these guys. Yeah, it's what's
31:18
interesting. If you go look at the splits on draft kings as you come
31:22
into this, Colorado is still getting all the money, all of it.
31:29
But I think this is finally of the week where the bookmakers get right because
31:33
they have lost their ass the last several weeks. Now, granted, last
31:37
week Colorado didn't cover that number against Colorado State, we've played the over.
31:41
But I think they get right here and you can lay a big number.
31:44
I don't like to lay huge numbers in spots, but this game is if
31:48
Prime's not there and you've got the exact same roster that Colorado has right now,
31:52
and you've got Mike McEntyre coaching this team, there's no question about it
31:56
that we would bet Oregon to roll at the spot. And no one's even
31:59
paying attention to this game. You're probably not even looking at it at this
32:00
point. So that's my take on that. And mark two to your point,
32:07
because everybody's saying this is, Look, when you look at the statistics
32:12
of this, everybody's all that numbers too big that they covered the seven of
32:15
the last nine years. Now, I understand Prime hasn't been the coach,
32:19
and I understand the environment's different, but it is not like Oregon hasn't Gas
32:22
can this game a lot. It doesn't have the ability to go put wood
32:28
on these guys, and I just think, I think this is where they
32:32
get shown for fool's goal. Now, I agree with you. I am
32:36
all in on this one, Scott. Let's go to SEC. It's going
32:38
to eleven o'clock Central kickoff. Let's go to nash Vegas. Baby, Kentucky
32:44
will be rolling into Nashville play Saturday morning over under. Here's fifty and a
32:49
half, Vanderbilt is getting thirteen and a half. Both these teams are averaging
32:53
thirty five points a game. Bandy's given up twenty nine, Kentucky's giving up
32:58
eleven. Kentucky's three straight up, two and one against the number, Vandy's
33:02
two and two straight up, and they are oz and four against the number.
33:06
Did you watch any of the UNLV Vandy game last week? Just a
33:10
little bit. They looked terrible. It was wild. They were up and
33:15
he thought they're gonna blow them out. Then they gave up all these unanswered
33:17
points. Sleeper gonna be on UNLV this week. But anyway, SEC game
33:24
lay in less than thirteen and a half. This is an SEC East rivalry
33:30
game that's going on. These teams have typically been the seller of the SEC
33:34
East for years and years and years. I like the Blue Cats in this
33:37
game. What's your take? I know two look, I think I think
33:45
just what we saw him just sound like I'm gonna regurgitate what we said about
33:49
Larry last week. But he's playing well. I mean that really is the
33:52
really is a difference. Vandy is not playing very well. Kentucky's covered this
33:57
number the last three trips. The last three trips to Nashville. They lost
34:04
last year straight up. That is another reason that I think they're gonna come
34:08
out ready to play. I don't think this team's ready for what they're gonna
34:13
see in Kentucky. And while those games are always close in Lexington, they're
34:19
generally blowouts when they go to Nashville. So I think I think Kentucky goes
34:24
down and just handles business and moves right on down the road. This is
34:29
an anti Bandy bit. Yeah, that's more of me as an anti fete
34:32
on Vandy. Vandy has not looked good this season, and so I mean,
34:37
I know Kentucky's got Florida next week and they'll be that's a huge,
34:42
huge game to them. And that is the only knock that I would have
34:45
here is there could be some look ahead to that Florida game. But I
34:49
feel like Stoops is such a good coach, so overlooked, so overlooked,
34:53
Like if you know all the names that have been circulating on who they're gonna
34:57
hire at Michigan State, I have no ideal. When no one talks to
35:00
Stoops, it's like a perfect I mean, if he wanted to go up
35:02
there, it's like you're in a basketball school already go to another basketball school,
35:07
but you've got a lot more resources that are up there, and they
35:10
actually like football. I mean, Stoops has done a hell of a job
35:14
at Kentucky. I think he covers this one. But it's more of a
35:16
fade on Vandy for me that I expected a lot more of this Vandy team,
35:21
and this is I don't think they win another game this season. So
35:23
I'm trying to find ways to get out of my over three and a half
35:25
win total bet that is not gonna cash. Now that they're two and two.
35:30
So this is one of the ways I'm gonna do it. Let's get
35:31
Kentucky rolling here. Oh Scotty, let's NANCC sucks too bad right now to
35:38
worry about that. A lot of football up, Oh boy, it's I
35:42
can tell you if that bet cash is whoo Anyway, next game on the
35:45
rotation SMU TCU. A lot of people don't know this is a big rivalry.
35:50
Again, this is the iron skillet for both of these teams. And
35:52
I think this is the last year they're gonna play it because TCU said they
35:55
weren't going to read the contract. Yeah yea, and so sm you who
36:00
has got enough money that is moving into the ACC without a TV deal?
36:04
Good for them? Over under here sixty three and a half. TCU is
36:08
laying six and a half points. I am going over the total. I'm
36:13
not even gonna dig into this one a whole lot. I like where this
36:15
one's going. This game. Let me give you some numbers off of this
36:20
last five of the last seven years. Forty two, thirty four, forty
36:23
two, thirty four, forty one, thirty eight, forty two, twelve,
36:27
fifty six, thirty six, fifty six, thirty seven. I look
36:30
for this game to be electric, lots of points. I think it's gonna
36:35
be pushed the entire time, and both of these teams want to win.
36:37
This is a huge deal. Both of these teams want to win this game,
36:42
and so I look at this is gonna be a fight all the way
36:45
to the end. It'll be an early game that most people won't be watching.
36:49
I really like the quarterback. I really like the quarterback play that SMU
36:53
is getting now, and so I'm excited about this one. I could even
36:57
see SMU sneaking in and get an upset winning this spot. Been covering the
37:01
six and a half. I think it's gonna be a shootout. I think
37:04
it's over sixty three, pretty easy. First team to forty wins, the
37:10
first team to forty wins. I think this game is going over too.
37:14
It'll be high scoring. Both these teams are scoring basically forty points a game.
37:19
And you know the same thing we saw how bad this defense could be
37:22
for TCU against Colorado. I think you'll see a symbol because here's the deal,
37:30
and I think that is in me talent. It's not that much different
37:32
than Colorado, probably not no, and so I think this is a lot.
37:37
I think this is a high scoring game. I agree with you,
37:39
and we obviously know how bad TCU and Sunny dikes. You're gonna want to
37:45
win it. So let's get out and let's get after it. Let's go
37:49
to wake O, Texas, to my alma monitor. University of Texas is
37:52
rolling in here. They're laying fifteen points against the Baylor Bears. I can
37:55
send this one up really quick, and I'll give you the next couple of
37:59
games. Baylor looks bad, like real bad, like four and eight bad.
38:05
It's the Randa experiment is not working. We're down to a backup quarterback
38:08
and Sawyer Robertson that you guys gifted us from Mississippi State. I think the
38:14
kids probably got some talent, but I don't think there's much talent around him.
38:16
Frankly, I have been underwhelmed by the defense and what they've got.
38:20
And here's the reason I like this game the most. Number One Baylor beat
38:24
Texas last year, and I'm sure Texas loved losing to Baylor at home,
38:30
because nobody likes losing to Baylor anywhere. Number two Texas played like shit last
38:36
week against Wyoming and couldn't ever really get anything rolling in that spot. And
38:43
I think this is just a great spot for Texas to go to Waco and
38:46
just beat the dog shit out of Baylor and then tell them we don't ever
38:51
have to play you again. And that's where I think this thing's gonna roll.
38:54
And so I just can't see them laying a clinker in this spot.
38:59
Give me or the last. I just think this is a big win for
39:01
them. I think they roll it over. I mean, the Wyoming team
39:06
try to hang around. They still won by twenty one, and that one
39:08
stretched it out. I think this one's gonna be way more explosive. I
39:13
would take this one all the way if to Texas minus twenty and I think
39:16
they cover easy. Mark. Here's the thing I think this really is.
39:23
They just got a huge win. I don't think that all they did what
39:27
they need to do. Just win the Wyoming game. That's all you need
39:29
to do. They just had a huge road win. Nobody cares about that.
39:32
But this is where I think you find out if sart casts solved the
39:37
culture problem in Houston. They got Oklahoma coming up in a couple of weeks.
39:44
This team is significantly more talented. You are playing a backup quarterback who
39:49
candidly has a good arm, but it's still learning and struggling reading defenses.
39:53
They've got what it feels like him pretty handcuffed and trying to keep it pretty
39:59
basic. This is a chance where if you have fixed the culture and you
40:05
and you're playing to your ability level and not the opponent's ability level, then
40:09
you cover this game easily. It's like you said, it's a three touchdown
40:13
or more when because they don't have the personnel and the ability to keep up
40:17
with them, they come out and win a squeaker in this ballgame. And
40:23
I think we still have all the questions that we've had continually about Sark and
40:29
the culture in Texas and can it be fixed endedly because you know, I
40:34
have questions about that because I think it's a I don't necessarily think it's a
40:37
culture problem inside the program. I think it's a culture problem around that university.
40:44
I think there's a lot of pomp and circumstance to those guys. This
40:46
is not a generation or hard work is a premium because guys come in feeling
40:52
entitled and a lot of them don't put on the work, and then around
40:55
them, it's just that kind of it's just that kind of you know,
41:01
culture that they don't that they don't play hard. So anyway, that's the
41:06
that's the gist of it. I think we're past that, I really really
41:08
do. I think Texas is I think they got it on the rails this
41:12
year. Let's go to a huge game Saturday night. Ohio State will be
41:15
traveling to Notre Dame. Over one hundred years fifty five. Notre Dame is
41:20
getting three points at home. That line's popped just since we started the podcast.
41:24
It's been a two and a half all week now it's up to three.
41:28
Both these teams are scoring in the forties. Ohio State's only given up
41:30
six point seven points a game. Notre Dame is given up eleven point eight.
41:35
Both these teams are undefeated, and Notre Dame's three and one against the
41:38
number. Ohio State is one and two against the number. Both of them
41:42
are positive in the turnover margin. Scotty, how are we going to play?
41:49
I think we're gonna play Notre Dame. Last year we took this ball
41:51
game and we got it wrong. Candidly, Ohio State was better and Notre
41:54
Dame not as good as I thought they were. And I don't think that's
41:59
the case. I think is a difference maker at quarterback. I've got questions
42:04
about quarterback play at Ohio State. The real key is are they going to
42:07
be able to get Harrison in that group of wide receivers to football. I
42:10
think that is a I think it's a big part of this ball game.
42:14
But I also think it's Notre Dame defense. Is that another year under Marcus
42:17
Freeman, they're better. I think they're playing better. I would take Notre
42:22
Dame in this spot. I think we find out who both these teams are
42:25
Saturday. I think we find out as Notre Dame and National Championship playoff contender
42:31
or is Ohio State. I think we really find out this Saturday. Yeah,
42:37
I agree with you. I think Notre Dame is a playoff contender.
42:40
I think this is a real team. I like what Marcus Freeman's doing,
42:45
and this is a team last year that I mean think about last year what
42:47
they had. They had fucking Drew Pine playing quarterback, and Mayors they're you
42:52
know, tight end was they just they weren't very dynamic. And then you
42:57
have an Ohio State team with c J. Stroud and all those weapons and
43:00
this game wasn't that big of a blowout last year. I think Notre Dame
43:05
comes in here with the you know, Adric Estimate is playing well. Hartman's
43:08
doing some great things at quarterback. I like, we're going here. If
43:14
you make me pick, I think Notre Dame's gonna win. Oh yeah,
43:16
I'm taking Notre Dame on the money line and Notre Dame plus three and this
43:20
one is what I've got. So that'll be one of my underdogs that I've
43:23
got this week that I like to cover. The number Scotty couple of the
43:28
oh MAC Game of the Week Game three seventy seven. Ohio's got bowling green.
43:34
What we got there, I'm telling you Ohio's good. Mark been saying
43:39
it all preseason, been saying it all year. They are gonna roll through
43:45
this group of teams with one loss and that and they should be undefeated because
43:51
I'm telling you Roorke doesn't get hurt in that first game and they win that
43:54
ball game straight up at San Diego State. This is a good foot ball
44:00
team. More fire for this defense is is what's good. I think the
44:05
defense is playing at the highest level that it's played under They've had some pretty
44:08
good offenses before, but they just would kind of will against some of the
44:12
better teams. I don't think that's the case. They may very well have
44:15
the best defense in the MAC, and when you combine that with this offense,
44:20
I think this is a good football team. I like a little gas
44:22
can action from my guys here. I think they are finally getting right with
44:28
a team with a team that is still struggling to find out who they are.
44:35
I really like Ohio here. Even though they're going on the road,
44:38
I think they're going to hammer these guys. I like it. There's never
44:44
been a big I mean, you're on the road in the MAC. Bro,
44:46
there's no home field. The penis in the MAC. Let's be serious.
44:49
For Shre It's definitely not a bowling green right now because that team's been
44:52
rerailing so much. Only other game I got, I mean I got a
44:55
couple more. That's the official board we got. I like to Duke u
44:59
Kin under. Duke's defense is legit, Yukon is broken offensively. I don't
45:04
think they're gonna be able to get anything done. I could see Duke just
45:07
kind of taking care of business and moving on in this one. I like
45:10
that game. I think the over in the Rutgers I think Michigan may go
45:17
over forty five and Rutgers by themselves and I did Rutger. Rutgers is not
45:22
great hardball's back. I could see him blowing him out in this spot.
45:27
I kind of like Texas Tech, but somebody's obviously given that number out because
45:30
it moved from four all the way up to six and six and a half.
45:34
So I'm gonna pass on that one is there on the road, and
45:37
the other one I'm gonna take is I'm gonna take un LV to come to
45:40
l pass Hoole late at night and win the game on the road against Ute.
45:45
UTEP is really bad, and I'm kind of wondering if that locker room
45:50
is starting to give up on Dana Demel. Yeah, I'm surprised UTEP is
45:53
not better. That roster looked like it should be better. The only other
45:58
game that I'm leaning to now, especially now I'm getting hooked, I kind
46:02
of like me, come my Eyewood Penn State. Even though it's a white
46:05
out. I think the Eyewood defense is good enough to keep them in the
46:08
ball game, because at the end of the day, the way Penn State
46:14
sets the tone is running the football, and I think this eye will front
46:16
seven is good enough to even though it's great backs, to slow them down
46:21
enough to keep this ball game close. Something. They hasn't ran the ball
46:27
as well as I was expecting so far this season. I was, yeah,
46:30
I agree. Look, I just think I think this defense is good
46:35
enough to keep them in it. Just keep them in it. So I
46:37
like especially now you're getting a hook. I think that is a I think
46:40
that's a pretty good, pretty good number. I liked it at fourteen,
46:44
I really like it now that there's fourteen, and I have the only a
46:47
thing I've got this of interest is a game really no one's gonna watch is
46:52
the Sam Houston State will travel down forty five to play Houston. And here's
46:57
why this. The over under in this game is thirty eight, and you
47:00
of h Is laying twelve. Now you have h Is played terrible this season.
47:06
They're one and two. They hung around for about a quarter and a
47:08
half against TCU last week. But Sam is averaging one point five points a
47:14
game, and they are averaging they're they have kicked one field goal, that's
47:21
all they done. It's incredible, and I mean if you haven't watched this
47:24
team play, please do because it is rough to watch this team. When
47:30
they played they I mean they are averaging two hundred and twenty yards offensive game
47:37
and they have kicked one field goal, and they've played by U and they've
47:39
played air Force. It is just a dead under bet. And you have
47:45
h Dana Holgerson. He's got to get fired this year. He made a
47:49
comment the other day about how he needs some more older leadership on his team,
47:53
and I was like, motherfucker, you been there for like five years,
47:57
what are you talking about it? Yeah, I need to go get
48:01
something. I think. I think the game is past hologram by. I
48:05
think you know, the party in and the drinking and all of that,
48:08
and as you age there needs to become, you know, a maturity level
48:13
and things like that. He just doesn't. He still gets pissed and gets
48:16
screaming and yelling and gets red faced on the sideline. But when you've got
48:21
that kind of lazy, fair attitude that he does, then I think it's
48:25
hard to do that. You know, Mike Leached was Mike Leachs three hundred
48:29
and sixty five days a year. He's got a different mentality especially on games.
48:35
Be some games over there laughing and cutting up. They're playing games.
48:37
Other games, he's over there just pissed off if they're playing bad. And
48:43
again, I think this generation is different, and I think you have to
48:45
coach them differently. I think you, I know you have to manage them
48:49
differently. And I just think at the end of the day of some of
48:54
these guys needed to move on to the NFL go be assistance to whatever they
49:00
choose to do. But it's there's gonna be some guys hading in different directions.
49:04
I agree with you as maybe the end of the day and Augerson it
49:07
Houston, you got a favorite play this week? Man, I have bounced
49:14
all. I'm going Florida State. I feel as confident about that football team
49:19
being able to cover that one and a half as I do any game that
49:23
we've got out there. I'm I go Texas minus fifteen. So that's what
49:29
we got, Folks, I'm excited. Give us a review, Hit us
49:31
up on Twitter, share us with your friends, so somebody write us a
49:34
couple of reviews so we can get over fifty or whatever the number is that
49:37
we've got from there. We're doing this for a lot of fun trying to
49:38
make some money. We'll put it all out on Twitter. If we got
49:42
any extra plays, we'll add those to them as well. With all that
49:44
being said, we hope you make a few bucks, have a good time,
49:46
and we'll talk to you next week