Latest / Trumponomics / Episode 18: Will Your Job Disappear by 2024?

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Episode 18: Will Your Job Disappear by 2024? · Trumponomics

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Let's say I'm squeamish. I don't like to see blood.
• 0:03
  Speaker 1: I get a bit uneasy around sick people makes me sad.
• 0:07
  Speaker 1: So what else could I do when I get old?
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: This episode is brought to you by nat X, the
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  Speaker 1: e X, dot com, futures, options and spots. Trading involves
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  Speaker 1: risk and may not be appropriate for all investors. Hi,
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  Speaker 1: and welcome back to Bloomberg Benchmark, a podcast about the
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  Speaker 1: global economy. It is Wednesday, December. I'm Tori Stiwell and
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  Speaker 1: economics reporter with Bloomberg News, and I am in New
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  Speaker 1: York work today with Dan Moss. And we're also joined
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: by Aki Edo, our editor for Benchmark in San Francisco. Guys, Hiaki,
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: are you feeling all lonesome out there? I am, I am,
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  Speaker 1: I wish. Yeah. We're having a big party here in
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: New York with the producers Crazy. Today we're going to
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: be looking forward, not just next year, but to the
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: coming decade. We're going to offer everyone a sneak preview
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: far out into the future. What does the American labor
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: market look like a decade from now? And we have
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: a great guide with us, which is this giant set
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: of projections that the US Labor Department published this month.
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  Speaker 1: It's got info on the fate of hundreds of different
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: kinds of jobs by the year, and it's a pretty
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  Speaker 1: fascinating look into the future. Gosh, I just love this report.
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  Speaker 1: I've used it for my own reporting, and I like
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: it for myself to you know, thinking about where I
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: want my own career to go. Uh Tori, what will
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: your life look like? And ideally I will be on
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: a farm making homemade cheese. And that's the dream just
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  Speaker 1: in overalls, Yeah, retirement at age six. Now I'm going
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: to be a farmer. I'm gonnas how farmers are going
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  Speaker 1: to do real quick? Farmers are going to lose jobs. Yeah, yeah,
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  Speaker 1: we're moving away from an agricultural economy. You'll be one
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  Speaker 1: of the very few. You'll be really special, excellent, It'll
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  Speaker 1: be like an artisanal farm. To help us make sense
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  Speaker 1: of this brave new world, and we have Heidi Sherholtz
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  Speaker 1: on the line. She is the chief economist at the
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  Speaker 1: Labor Department. Hello Heidi, Hi, thank you for having me. Heidi.
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  Speaker 1: This is a huge report that you guys have put out.
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  Speaker 1: So let's start with very broad, five thousand foot view
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  Speaker 1: of the labor market. What are the main changes that
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  Speaker 1: we are going to see in the demographic makeup of
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  Speaker 1: our workforce over the next nine tennis years. Yeah. So
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  Speaker 1: this is the report that the Bureau of Labor Statistics
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  Speaker 1: puts out every two years where they do these massive
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  Speaker 1: projections of what employment will be like for the next
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  Speaker 1: ten years. They look at not just occupations and industries
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  Speaker 1: that will be growing, but also demographic changes. And one
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  Speaker 1: of the sort of the theme we see from these
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  Speaker 1: numbers is not a surprise. The labor force is going
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  Speaker 1: to continue to get older. We're seeing more of the
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  Speaker 1: just broad aging of the population that will sort of
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  Speaker 1: start tapering off at the end of this window, at
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  Speaker 1: the end of this tenure window they're looking at, but
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  Speaker 1: we are seeing the labor force continuing to get older.
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  Speaker 1: And then the other thing that we're seeing is increasing
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  Speaker 1: diversity of the labor force. We see bigger share of
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  Speaker 1: the labor force are racial un ethnic minorities, and so
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  Speaker 1: those two key things are sort of important dynamics going forward.
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  Speaker 1: And one one thing I should say though, is none
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  Speaker 1: of that is changing incredibly rapidly. Deetographic trends tend to
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  Speaker 1: move pretty slowly, but that's the direction they're going in
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  Speaker 1: right now. I want to I want to zoom in
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  Speaker 1: on the on the kind of aging piece of this
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  Speaker 1: because I thought it was really interesting in the report,
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  Speaker 1: you guys say that the labor force participation rate, which
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  Speaker 1: is the share of the working age population that is
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  Speaker 1: either employed or at least looking for a job, that
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  Speaker 1: rate for the sixty five years old and older age
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  Speaker 1: group is going to rise to one point seven percent
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  Speaker 1: from eighteen point six percent. And I think that's just
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  Speaker 1: it's astounding. It's a it's a really big increase in
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  Speaker 1: I think really illustrates what you just said very well. Yeah,
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  Speaker 1: it's a fascinating dynamic. So we see workers workers who
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  Speaker 1: are older or people who are older are more likely
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  Speaker 1: to be in the labor force than they used to be,
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  Speaker 1: and that trend is continuing. So some of that so
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  Speaker 1: we're never going to retire at all. I do I
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  Speaker 1: do plan on retiring myself, and I believe you all
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  Speaker 1: will also be able to have a period of retirement.
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  Speaker 1: But people are um starting to delay that more than
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  Speaker 1: they used to. So we're starting to see workers over
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  Speaker 1: age sixty five and larger numbers continue being in the
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  Speaker 1: labor force. But you will note those numbers you cited
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  Speaker 1: are still quite low. It's not like they're compared to
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  Speaker 1: younger workers. Yes, and one of the dynamics we're seeing
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  Speaker 1: is the um the overall labor force participation rate is
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  Speaker 1: actually dropping. Interestingly enough, because when you even though you
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  Speaker 1: have this increase in labor force participation of older workers,
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  Speaker 1: their overall numbers are lower. It's growing, but from sort
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  Speaker 1: of a very low base. And so as we have
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  Speaker 1: the aging of the workforce, you're aging people into this
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  Speaker 1: category that has a lower labor force participation rate. Let's
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  Speaker 1: talk about this older population, and you know, as our
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  Speaker 1: population ages, that really means that some jobs are going
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  Speaker 1: to be in huge amen and other jobs aren't going
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  Speaker 1: to be in demand at all. So, Dan, do you
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  Speaker 1: want to walk us through some of those numbers. We'll
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  Speaker 1: be seeing big increases in healthcare across the board. Someone
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  Speaker 1: has to take care of this aging population. The job
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  Speaker 1: that's going to see the most growth over the next
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  Speaker 1: decade is a thing called personal care aids. These are
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  Speaker 1: people who take care of everyday stuff when you can't
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  Speaker 1: do it yourself. This job is going to employ almost
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  Speaker 1: half a million more people in compared with last year.
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  Speaker 1: That's a lot of people. And there are tons of
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  Speaker 1: other jobs in healthcare that are also going to win
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  Speaker 1: pretty big registered nurses, home health aids, nursing assistance, medical assistance.
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  Speaker 1: So let's say I'm squeamish. I don't like to see blood.
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  Speaker 1: I get a bit uneasy around sick people. Makes me sad.
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  Speaker 1: You know, I'm not a huge guy in terms of
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: guzzling medicine or administering medicine. So what else could I
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  Speaker 1: do when I get old? We've got other jobs for you,
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  Speaker 1: I promise, Thank god there are You were really emphatic there.
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  Speaker 1: That was great. Over the next ten years, it's expected
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  Speaker 1: that will add almost ten million jobs. Around a quarter
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  Speaker 1: of those jobs are indeed expected to be in healthcare,
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  Speaker 1: so that's a huge share, but it's still only a
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  Speaker 1: quarter of those jobs. So even though it's a fast
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: growing industry, there's going to be a lot of other
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: jobs growing. So there's a lot of other jobs. There's
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: a lot of other high paying jobs that are going
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  Speaker 1: to be added. Outside of the health care industry. You
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  Speaker 1: see a lot of growth and business and financial operations,
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  Speaker 1: computer and mathematics occupations, management occupations. One of the category
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  Speaker 1: that's growing strongly that is a good paying job that
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  Speaker 1: doesn't necessarily require a college degree are installation, maintenance and
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  Speaker 1: repair occupations. And that's one of the categories where the
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  Speaker 1: aging of the workforce factors in. Is that like the
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  Speaker 1: guy who comes in and puts in your cable box
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  Speaker 1: at his or the plumber who comes in and compares
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  Speaker 1: that that when you sort of think of installation and repair,
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  Speaker 1: that that's a catch all for all of those skilled,
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  Speaker 1: in many cases very skilled trades. And we're seeing many
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  Speaker 1: of the workers in those jobs are getting older and
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  Speaker 1: so as you see retirements happening, it's going to open
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  Speaker 1: up a lot of jobs. And I just have to
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  Speaker 1: mention this category because it's jumping out of me. You've
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: listed as an industry offices of dentists and they're supposed
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  Speaker 1: to do really well. Yeah, I don't have anything specific
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  Speaker 1: to say about the offices of that dis although one
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  Speaker 1: thing I can say is that now that I've become
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  Speaker 1: chief Economists at the Department of Labor, the job involves
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  Speaker 1: such stress that I now grind my teeth at night.
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  Speaker 1: Did you get a nightguard? I have a nightguard. Now
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  Speaker 1: help health employ more than this, But I, UM, I
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  Speaker 1: do think it's part of the broader We're going to
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  Speaker 1: need more people in healthcare. I like. I also like
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  Speaker 1: the occupation you guys have here. It's the fastest growing occupation,
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  Speaker 1: even though it employees a relatively small number of people,
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: wind turbine service technicians. That makes me so the story
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  Speaker 1: behind that. You're right, it's small, but it sticks out
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  Speaker 1: as the fastest. Yeah, it is because it's been around
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  Speaker 1: ten or so years when we started, since we started
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  Speaker 1: to see a big investment in wind turbine and now
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  Speaker 1: they're coming due for repair, and so we're we are
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  Speaker 1: now seeing we're going to continue to see the need
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  Speaker 1: for more of those of repair technicians. That's interesting because
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  Speaker 1: I still think of them as being a failing new phenomenon.
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  Speaker 1: But you're signing the replacement cycles already here. Yeah, we've
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  Speaker 1: really we started to see, um that investment pick up
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  Speaker 1: five ten years ago. So over the next ten years
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  Speaker 1: they're gonna start to need to be fixed. Let's let's
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: bum everyone out for one second. Which jobs are disappearing
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  Speaker 1: a CD of those numbers for us? Yeah, so the
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  Speaker 1: postal service as an industry is going to lose a
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  Speaker 1: whole lot a hundred and sixty five thousand jobs. Uh,
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  Speaker 1: and we're probably going to see really big losses in
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  Speaker 1: the number of federal government jobs. To other than that,
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  Speaker 1: our economy is going to continue to make more progress
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  Speaker 1: into becoming a service oriented economy. So we're gonna lose
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  Speaker 1: a lot of manufacturing jobs. Um, these jobs are going
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  Speaker 1: to move to countries with cheaper labor, or they're going
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  Speaker 1: to be replaced by robots altogether, HAIDI. I worry that
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: we may already know the answer to this, but we've
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: got to ask anyway, what do our prospects as journalists
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: look like? So one of the journalists, it's tricky. It
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: is one of those industries where it's evolving so quickly
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: that one way people consume news to day may not
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: be the way they consume news the next day. But
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: I think the key thing is they're still consuming news
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: like you know, people are always going to be hungry
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: for the information, and so you guys are doing the
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  Speaker 1: right thing by being creative about different ways to try
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: to get the news to people. Are not like regular
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: journalists were cool journals you are. I think she's saying
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: we're lucky we were exactly. Well that's a ringing endorsement
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: from the US government itself. Yeah, well, we've gone through
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: lots of winners and losers. Let's jump into a broader
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: discussion about the future of the job market and what
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: we can do to be ready for that future. After
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  Speaker 1: at n A d e X dot com. Futures options
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  Speaker 1: and swaps. Trading involves risk and may not be appropriate
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  Speaker 1: for all investors. So in a previous episode, we talked
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: about how advances and artificial intelligence are allowing engineers to
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: make software do all these things that only humans could
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: do before. And one of my pet favorites has been
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: driverless cars because I don't really like driving and this
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: would presumably displace human taxi drivers. So Heidi, you know,
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: what are your thoughts on the technological progress that we've
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: seen so far are and it's impact on the job
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: market and where do you think that's going. So while
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: I remain extremely excited about the prospect of driverless cars,
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: I do think that there's an important context for thinking
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: about how fast things are changing right now. There's a
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: sort of breathless conversation out there about this pace of change,
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: But there's actually a way we can look at, like
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: like sort of measure how fast things are changing, and
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: it's productivity growth. So if robots really were stealing all
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: our jobs, that means that before something that took you know,
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: ten people to do, now it takes one person to
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: sort of supervise for lack of a better word, ten
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: robots and so that one human hour of work they
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: get the same amount done, where before it took ten
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: human hours to do the work. So that kind of
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: scenario describes a big acceleration of productivity growth. But if
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: you look historically, productivity has typically grown around two percent
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: per year. It's sometimes faster, sometimes slower, but that's sort
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: of been its long run growth rate. It is, if anything,
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: a little slower than that over the last ten years
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: than it was before. So we are not seeing a
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: massive acceleration and productivity growth that would signal that robots
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: were stealing all of our jobs. And our listeners will
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: know from our very first episode it is the US
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: economies silent menace. Yeah, I I. One of the things
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: about that long run productivity growth is that that's happened
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: in times of prosperity and times of recessions, but that
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: but mostly it's happened in times of prosperity. In times
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: of prosperity is when there's a lot of innovation going on,
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: and productivity tends to accelerate because there's sort of a
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: lot of action out there and investments and innovation and
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: people people having the opportunity to try new things that
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: can lead to productivity growth um that goes hand in
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: hand with a lot of job growth, a lot of
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: good things happening, So it doesn't necessarily spell it doesn't
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: in my view, productivity growth doesn't spell menace. Um. You know,
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: robots will steal some jobs, but the people who then
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: benefit from that productivity growth have more income. They buy
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: nude things that generates demand for other things that people
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: get employed in other places. So there's there's sort of
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: there could be adjustment pain as there's one occupation or
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: industry that gets subsumed by robots, but it, you know,
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: it sort of balloons out elsewhere and there's something else
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: at growth. One thing I thought was really interesting in
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: projections is participation by youth in the labor force. So
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: people ages sixteen to twenty four, and right now they
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: make up about almost four of the labor force, but
• 15:59
  Speaker 1: that's projected to decrease. So I think it's it's fascinating
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  Speaker 1: You've got this dynamic where the participation by older adults
• 16:06
  Speaker 1: is increasing and the participation by the youngest adults is decreasing.
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: What's going on there? Shouldn't the the young ones be
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: the ones that are most highly engaged? Is it's solely
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: because they're going to college. What what's what's thee you
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: put your finger on it. So the UM the there's
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: been a long term decline in labor force participation of
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: younger people, workers under the age of people under the
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: age of and that is a huge chunk of that
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: is attributable to people staying in school longer. So it's people.
• 16:38
  Speaker 1: You know, even high school graduation rates are going up,
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: and then college graduation rates going up, people going and
• 16:44
  Speaker 1: getting master's degrees and even higher levels of professional degrees.
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: The incidents of that, the share of young workers that
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: are continuing on in school is just going up. So
• 16:56
  Speaker 1: that um, that piece of the clin mine in labor
• 17:01
  Speaker 1: force participation among young people is actually really good news.
• 17:04
  Speaker 1: It's people making investments that will set them up to
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: get higher earnings going forward. And when you finished this
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: report and you sat back and you went home at night,
• 17:15
  Speaker 1: did anything keep you up anything? He'd really worry us,
• 17:21
  Speaker 1: you know, none of what maybe not in the sense
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: that it was what we see wasn't a surprise. The
• 17:27
  Speaker 1: even though there's changes, all we were seeing sort of
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: things like the fastest growing jobs are going to be
• 17:33
  Speaker 1: in healthcare, that there are. The labor market is evolving
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: all the time, but it tends to evolve pretty slowly.
• 17:40
  Speaker 1: If you look out in the world and you see
• 17:42
  Speaker 1: the jobs that people do, it's you know, it's this.
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: It doesn't evolve all that fast. We still have unless
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: there's a shock, right, unless we get another another accession,
• 17:52
  Speaker 1: oh right right, that would be indeed a uh that
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: that I do not want to have happened. And that's
• 17:59
  Speaker 1: the stand of mixed in and for as long as
• 18:01
  Speaker 1: is absolutely possible. Um. So the thing about these projections
• 18:06
  Speaker 1: is that they don't factor that in. These projections come
• 18:09
  Speaker 1: out of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and we we
• 18:12
  Speaker 1: certainly it is not their job to try to predict
• 18:15
  Speaker 1: when the next recession will be. And so they just
• 18:17
  Speaker 1: assume that things are going to be humming along at
• 18:20
  Speaker 1: a at a sort of a happy place. And so
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: I do get worried about the prospect of another recession,
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: but that is not what these numbers are about it
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: right right, um, you know, how do you Before a break,
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: we talked about the not very encouraging future of print
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: journalism at least um so a newspaper, the newspaper and
• 18:43
  Speaker 1: periodicals industry is projected to lose more than one thousand
• 18:47
  Speaker 1: jobs over the next decade UM. For for people like
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: us who are in these potentially losing industries, UM, what
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: do you think we should be thinking about it? It
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: is tricky because you the well I keep saying things
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: evolved slowly, but there's some occupations and industries where things
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: are evolving quickly, and journalism in point of those. You
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: just see this, it's sort of lightning pace of the
• 19:14
  Speaker 1: way people absorb news just seems to be changing all
• 19:19
  Speaker 1: the time, really rapidly. But I think you just can
• 19:22
  Speaker 1: go back to we know they're still taking a news.
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: People are still really hungry for this information, and so
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: it will be out there. So the best advice is
• 19:31
  Speaker 1: to do what you're doing, experiment, be flexible, be you know,
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: sort of able to to um looking forward into how
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: people are consuming it and trying to go in that direction. Wonderful. Well,
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: thank you Heidi so much for joining us. It's been
• 19:48
  Speaker 1: great getting all this wonderful insight from you. It's been
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: my pleasure. Happy New Year, you guys, thanks again for
• 19:56
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