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Transcript

Tariff Wreck-oning Day!🔥Crypto Market Update🔥 · The Paul Barron Crypto Show

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Markets are crashing? Is now tariff reckoning today? Today we'll
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: break it down. My name is Paul Barrel. Welcome back
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: into the show. Let's just get started. If you want
• 0:07
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• 0:30
  Speaker 1: Let's lead off the show with a clip and this
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: is a good one because it starts to break down
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: a lot of what's happening around tariff's and today is
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: the day take a look effectively?
• 0:41
  Speaker 2: Is this real? Does it get pushed again? Does it
• 0:44
  Speaker 2: have teeth?
• 0:44
  Speaker 3: Well?
• 0:44
  Speaker 4: Andrew have April second was liberation today. I think August
• 0:47
  Speaker 4: versus the day of reckoning so to speak. It's getting
• 0:50
  Speaker 4: them countries until the seventh to implement them. But are
• 0:54
  Speaker 4: you a gain if you were a gambling man.
• 0:56
  Speaker 2: You believe that come next week these actually will be
• 0:59
  Speaker 2: in leman.
• 1:00
  Speaker 4: That is just the reality, whether it goes into effect
• 1:03
  Speaker 4: right now or someone's on the road.
• 1:04
  Speaker 5: Right all time highs Michael.
• 1:06
  Speaker 4: And the bond market hasn't collapsed, the economy hasn't collapsed,
• 1:09
  Speaker 4: and we've had hardly any inflation. Inflation's ticked up a
• 1:13
  Speaker 4: little bit, but not terribly significantly. Yet it's probably not
• 1:17
  Speaker 4: great to be complacent about it. That has to get
• 1:19
  Speaker 4: eaten somewhere, and it's going to get eaten in part
• 1:22
  Speaker 4: by consumers.
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: All right, So you have to look at this and
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: wonder is inflation.
• 1:28
  Speaker 2: Is this the early stages of.
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: The inflation starting to take place? The FED believes Chairpala
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: specifically believes.
• 1:34
  Speaker 2: That is the case. I'll get to that in a second.
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: But if you look at the markets right now, eight
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: and a five million liquidated from the cryptocurrency markets in
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: the past twenty four I know that seems like a
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: little in comparison to the overall size of the market,
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: But in general, I think the big concern here is
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: how does this play out on not only jobs, but
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: also the issue around true inflation starting to come back
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: in because.
• 1:56
  Speaker 2: Today is the day. If we actually see these tariffs hold.
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: Play in through the next few weeks, we could see
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: a big reversal quickly. I want to go to another
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: clip here because this clip will get into what the
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: data is showing, and it's not looking good. Take a look,
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: got more economic data just crossing rig since ELI has.
• 2:14
  Speaker 6: That for US rec Yes, David, you have to go
• 2:17
  Speaker 6: to March to find a bigger dropping construction spending ism
• 2:21
  Speaker 6: on the manufacturing side. So it's the fifth consecutive number
• 2:25
  Speaker 6: in contraction territory. You have to go back to October
• 2:29
  Speaker 6: of last year to find a lower number, sixty four
• 2:31
  Speaker 6: point eight. That would be the lowest since February. It's
• 2:34
  Speaker 6: forty seven point one. Definitely light. The number has been
• 2:37
  Speaker 6: now the fifth consecutive month, also under fifty. Employment kind
• 2:41
  Speaker 6: of late, well below expectations sentiment, shall we and that
• 2:45
  Speaker 6: would be the weakest level of just since well since March. Finally,
• 2:50
  Speaker 6: inflation maybe the most important aspect, four point four becomes
• 2:53
  Speaker 6: four point five on the one year, so we see
• 2:56
  Speaker 6: that that's going to motentially fuel a little bit more
• 2:58
  Speaker 6: maybe downside is Sarah back to you?
• 3:01
  Speaker 2: All right?
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: So a couple of points a lot of indicators around
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: the data. Jobs numbers came in soft. There was also
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: a re adjustment of jobs. All of that starts to
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: move into where the markets are responding.
• 3:12
  Speaker 2: Now, what's interesting about this?
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: Let me kind of go to this next tweet here
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  Speaker 1: by kobeec Market says the trade war has lost all credibility,
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: So it's kind of the taco model here. S and
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: p futures are down a mere ten points. Remember the
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: last time we had a little bit more significant fall.
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: That is not the case now, and the trade war
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  Speaker 1: has lost all of its shock effect on the markets
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: in general. I'll show you some charts in a second
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: what it might look like. Yes, bitcoin is trading at
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: around one twelve. But the point is does this stick
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: around or is this the bottom right now?
• 3:44
  Speaker 2: Based on just this August first.
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  Speaker 1: Deadline and all these tariffs going into place. I want
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  Speaker 1: to go to another clip real quick, because this one
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  Speaker 1: we'll get into more of a tariff reality check. You
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: guys need to pay attention to take a look.
• 3:57
  Speaker 7: Hey yah, Governor's Waller and Bowman continuing that tradition of
• 4:01
  Speaker 7: explaining their descents on the Friday after the meeting, they're
• 4:04
  Speaker 7: both saying why they wanted or preferred a quarter point raycot.
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  Speaker 7: You also see interestingly in Bowman's comments, who said, if
• 4:11
  Speaker 7: you take out the tariff effect, we're at two and
• 4:15
  Speaker 7: a half percent or lower PCEE inflation. So she's telling
• 4:19
  Speaker 7: us there's zero point three percentage points at this point
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  Speaker 7: of inflation from tariffs.
• 4:25
  Speaker 2: It's not on what they're selling, it's on what's coming in.
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  Speaker 4: So if their markups are three hundred percent, four hundred percent,
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  Speaker 4: it's only on the wholesale price who's market.
• 4:34
  Speaker 5: But if you're talking about grocery stores where your margins
• 4:36
  Speaker 5: are one to two percent, you should cut.
• 4:39
  Speaker 2: Clearly. The president thinks.
• 4:40
  Speaker 4: That that he's going to he's about to create a problem.
• 4:44
  Speaker 2: I think the problem will pay benefit, all right.
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: So from that clip that they were we were just
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: talking about there around the descent. One of the things
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: you've got to look at is what is the real
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: effect on the market in terms of Tarofts and companies
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: that are going to be affected the most.
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  Speaker 2: Apple is probably consider.
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  Speaker 1: One of the biggest, because remember they moved a lot
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: of their manufacturing out of China moving into India. Also
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: projects happening in Vietnam, both of which have been hit
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  Speaker 1: now with higher tariffs. This starts to affect Apple in
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: a very big way.
• 5:14
  Speaker 2: Take a look at this clip.
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  Speaker 3: iPhones are made in India now and they got a
• 5:19
  Speaker 3: twenty five percent tariff rate max. And Apple watches now
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  Speaker 3: made in Vietnam and they've been slapped with twenty percent.
• 5:27
  Speaker 3: It'll cost them one point one billion dollars in the
• 5:29
  Speaker 3: September quarter. Is Apple absorbing some of this tariff cost that?
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  Speaker 8: Obviously it does not bode well with the customers Loyle customers.
• 5:39
  Speaker 3: Tim Cook estimated one percentage point of the nine point
• 5:42
  Speaker 3: six percent sales growth attributed to the customers that were
• 5:46
  Speaker 3: front loading ahead of the tariffs. How do you think
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  Speaker 3: that with the next iPhone release, which is usually in September,
• 5:54
  Speaker 3: how is that going to be impacted?
• 5:55
  Speaker 8: Apple could increase slightly, they would expect Apple to also
• 6:01
  Speaker 8: be to them and not increase the prices.
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: Our sedgency whether or not Apple is going to play
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  Speaker 1: this out and charge an increase to American consumers, because
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  Speaker 1: remember what they were talking about on the clip is
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: that a lot of companies were actually front loading a
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: lot of the acquisition of Apple's products. Now that's starting
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: to change, and a big key there is Apple launches
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  Speaker 1: their next iPhone in the fall, and all this is
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: leading into the biggest holiday season of the year, which
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: of course is around Christmas, and that of course will
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: play into all of this. Now that we place that
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: into consideration, that companies are actually being affected, which means
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: we will see some inflation starting to translate into consumers.
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: Here's what Trump is doing. Trump says the FED Board
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: should assume control if the FED Chair pal continues to
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: refuse to cut rates. He is all over the sky
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: right now in a huge way. And I don't know
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  Speaker 1: if you guys, i'd like to know in your opinion
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: right now, just drop some comments down below. Do you
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: think that the FED should cut With jobs starting to slide,
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: but inflation looking as though with these tariffs going in place,
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  Speaker 1: that it's going.
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  Speaker 2: To edge up.
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  Speaker 1: How will the FED be able to manage that? Because
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  Speaker 1: that essentially is stagflation going forward. What is stagflation? Well,
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: if you look at it in April, this is what
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: Chair Powell was talking about. The FED Chair warned that
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  Speaker 1: Trump's Administration's new tariffs were significant, larger than expected, with
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: likely effects that include higher inflation and slower growth.
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  Speaker 2: Both of those.
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  Speaker 1: Scenarios do not play well good for economies in many
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: cases that could also spiral into recessions. But the point
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  Speaker 1: is is will Trump back off of.
• 7:37
  Speaker 2: This in any way?
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  Speaker 1: If he starts to reduce any of these, maybe the
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  Speaker 1: market will go back.
• 7:42
  Speaker 2: To its potential.
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  Speaker 1: So it is a little bit of a double edged
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: sword that is playing into it. And if you look
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  Speaker 1: at polymarket right now, after the jobs numbers came out,
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  Speaker 1: it reversed a lot in terms of a potential twenty
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  Speaker 1: five basis points, which is now at sixty nine percent
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  Speaker 1: in the September meeting. So sixty nine percent is a
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: huge move up from where it had dropped to, which
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: was around thirty five percent, which was after the FOMC meeting.
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: So do you agree with poly market right now? Is
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: that we've seen that big of a push just because
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: of the job's numbers coming in so soft tariff numbers,
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: I would say, getting ready to hit.
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  Speaker 2: This is the problem that.
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: I think a lot of people are not completely thinking through.
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: This may actually be worse for the markets as we
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: start to see us go into the fall. But let
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: me know if you guys agree with poly market down
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: in the comments. Other things I want to hit on
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: JP Morgan Squeeze Centiment indicator recently at its highest level
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: since March twenty two, or excuse me, since twenty twenty one.
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: Of course, that was the me Menia, and I think
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: right now we're stuck at a point where either it's
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: going to have a reckoning down in terms of sentiment
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: in the market. And if you look at crypto fear
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: and greed right here, it has started to soften quite
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: a bit over just the last little bit.
• 8:55
  Speaker 2: I'll kind of zoom in on that.
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: So really, if you look at where it had clipped
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: up to, that was on July seventeenth, we were at
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: seventy one. But if you go all the way back
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: here into last year, this was pre the nice little
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: run that everybody had, we were at eighty eight. So
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: again softening and delaying the all coin season for sure.
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: Let's take another look at this next clip, which we'll
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: get into Tom Lee and he's going to talk about
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: whether the market's are ready to boom or not.
• 9:22
  Speaker 5: Take a look, Brian, We've seen markets get frothy and correct.
• 9:29
  Speaker 5: I've been covering markets for thirty five years, so you
• 9:32
  Speaker 5: know I was went through ninety nine, we went through
• 9:37
  Speaker 5: twenty nineteen and twenty twenty two, and the twenty twenty
• 9:40
  Speaker 5: one top that was painful into twenty twenty two, and
• 9:46
  Speaker 5: I'd say that signs of a top are really reckless
• 9:51
  Speaker 5: use of borrowing at a time when cycle indicators are
• 9:56
  Speaker 5: at a top. One thing to be mindful of in
• 9:59
  Speaker 5: twenty twenty is that the ism manufacturing hasn't stayed above
• 10:04
  Speaker 5: fifty for twenty nine months. That's the longest stretch in history.
• 10:07
  Speaker 5: So we know businesses have been ultra cautious despite what
• 10:13
  Speaker 5: people say is frauth. I mean maybe the Robinhood community
• 10:16
  Speaker 5: is quite enthusiastic, but in a general sense because Funstratt
• 10:21
  Speaker 5: has you know, ten thousand RIA clients and over furun
• 10:24
  Speaker 5: at hedge funds, our community of clients is not that enthusiastic.
• 10:29
  Speaker 5: I think it really does sync up with the seven
• 10:31
  Speaker 5: trillion of cash that you see. People are cautious, and
• 10:34
  Speaker 5: when people are cautious at the top, as you know,
• 10:37
  Speaker 5: that's not bell ringing. That's generally more mid cycle.
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: Yeah, all right, so to his point, mid cycle versus
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: bell ringing, and I do agree with that. With the
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: amount of money that is on the sideline still, and
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: I talk to money managers all the time, and they
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: have not deployed. They have not deployed into digital assets.
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: So if we are in a mid cycle, is this
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: going to happen again? If you look back at the
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: tariff day, a lot of this starts to go in
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: these cycles, but tariffs have been a pretty much catalyst
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: of where the market is respond If you look at
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: the two dates here, this is the one April second,
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: this is Liberation Day. Tariffs are starting to be played
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: into the markets. And what bitcoin did from right there
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: on the second it dropped around almost twelve thirteen percent
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: on that dip, but then right after.
• 11:22
  Speaker 2: That, over the period of what was that.
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: Through April ninth, all the way to this top right here,
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: almost fifty percent gain. So are we in that same
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: cycle of you know, kind of the taco trade right now,
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: of Trump pushing the market as we've seen here with
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: August first, and remember we thought we were going to
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: see a lot more activity, including the Genius Act going through,
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: but also the market structure. All of this was supposed
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: to be done by August first. Genius Act good, yes,
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: but the mark structure not in place. Maybe there is
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: a lot more pain than what people are expecting stick around.
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: We're going to be covering this a lot over the
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: next week or two because I think this is a
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: very key time on how the markets are going to
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: react and whether or not this is a good time
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: to start to enter into positions or are you setting
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: on the sidelines waiting for the next move. Get into
• 12:12
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• 12:15
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• 12:20
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