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NFL Week 10 Betting Preview · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: six five. We are part of the Action Network. Today
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: is our week ten Tuesday NFL episode. I am Chad Milman,
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: Chief Content Officer of the Action Network. We are coming
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: off of a three and two week in our contest.
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: We reviewed that extensively, at least the first three games
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: in our Sunday Night recap episode. Since we did have
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: contest plays on the Bengals on Sunday Night Football the
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: Jets on Monday Night Football for posterity. We went one
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: and one in those plays. Those were our foxhol the
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: Bengals and our Big Balls the Jets bets of the week.
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: As we said on the show on Sunday, a lot
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: of the lines we liked to have already moved, which
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: is why you need to listen to the Sunday Shoh
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: if you want to get the best of the number.
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: Today we will get to our Simon says and our
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: exec decision. This episode will look at the entire board
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: as we begin narrowing down the five picks we'll enter
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: in the Favorites podcast one hundred thousand dollars per football
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: Pick Them contest still open for sign up still free
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: to play, still awarding weekly and season long cash prizes
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: at Favorites dot actionnetwork dot com. Halfway through the season, Simon,
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: you and I are now we in one hundred and
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: sixty second place in our contest. We are inside the
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: top one point three percent. Time to bring in my
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: co host, my bff, my companion, Mike and Padre professional
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: better Simon the Hunter, Simon Simon, we had a winning
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: week last week. As I said to a buddy, I
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: was emailing with a buddy three and two, three and two,
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: three and two. Next thing you know, eighteen weeks later,
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: you're up eighteen units. I'll say it was our hardest,
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: most contentious week of the year. I feel like we
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: are lucky to have gotten out of it at three
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: and two, especially since our anchor leg was that Jets game.
• 2:14
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think Action newk just retweeted this. The Jets
• 2:19
  Speaker 2: the only NFL team the Super Bowl era to have
• 2:22
  Speaker 2: their defense collect five plus sex, hold their appunt under
• 2:25
  Speaker 2: two hundred yards, not allow any play of twenty five
• 2:28
  Speaker 2: yards or more, and lose the game by twenty plus points.
• 2:31
  Speaker 2: So that's just the breaks Jet. We bet ugly teams
• 2:35
  Speaker 2: doesn't break our way The painful part is whenever we
• 2:39
  Speaker 2: leave two plays out and they both win, the odds
• 2:42
  Speaker 2: are stacked against us. So we left the Eagles and
• 2:44
  Speaker 2: the Raiders out both covered. That's always scary where it's
• 2:48
  Speaker 2: just like you know you're not gonna hit win them all.
• 2:51
  Speaker 2: When you leave leave out a couple of those plays,
• 2:53
  Speaker 2: it asially comes back and bites you. And I'm with you,
• 2:56
  Speaker 2: Like three and two feels good to get there. We
• 2:58
  Speaker 2: nailed that Bengals game. Jets game not so much.
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: I think at the end of the day, I still
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: would have made that play. Again, Like, looking at that game,
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: their defense is so freaking good. If Zach Wilson can
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: make one forward play instead of one backwards play in
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: a couple of times in the first half, in the
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: second half combined, yeah, it's a different conversation. Right, So,
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: you know, I think.
• 3:21
  Speaker 2: Could have got Josh Dobbs for a six round pick,
• 3:23
  Speaker 2: but they decided to roll with Zach Wilson. I'd be
• 3:26
  Speaker 2: pretty pissed off right now if I was a Jets fan.
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: Soon after this show, Simon, Matt Mitchell and I Matt
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: Mitchell from Milwaukee, Me from New York City. From JFK.
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: We will be getting on planes to visit to visit
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: our Danish overlords in Copenhagen, where we will record our
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: Thursday show. Matt Mitchell and I will be recording the
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: show together from Copenhagen. The last time we recorded the
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: show together might have been in Louisville, Kentucky at this
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: time last year. As a reminder, the favorite podcast presented
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: by Bet three sixty five Bet three six y five
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  Speaker 1: Must be twenty one or older and present in Colorado, Iowa,
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  Speaker 1: New Jersey, Ohio, or Virginia, or eighteen and older in Kentucky.
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler or one eight
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: hundred bets off in Iowa. Terms. Conditions and restrictions apply
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: As a reminder, Producer Tito would like us to say,
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: catch every episode of the Favorites live on YouTube. So
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: for those enjoying on YouTube, give us a like subscribe
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: to the Action Network YouTube pay which boy, oh boy,
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: this is a crazy, crazy week we got coming up.
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: One more update. Here's the Week nine winners roundup from
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: the Favorites contest. We had sixty two entries finish five
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: and oh that's just one point four percent of entries.
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: Congrats to our first place winner, Sood Productions. This week's
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: Producer Couple of Ward goes to dog Jimbo for finishing
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: dead fucking last and the Week nine contests going on
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: to five, missing the tiebreaker by two hundred and fifty
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: four yards. Dog Jimbo, please email producer Matt Mitchell at
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: podcasts at Actionnetwork dot com to claim your non cash prize.
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: Thanks for playing. Week ten contest is live tiebreaker total
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: passing yards on Monday Night Football. All right, justin, justin
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: Herbert one of our passing yardage futures twenty five to one.
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: Pretty much dead. Tyreek Hill leading the league in receiving yards,
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: but barely hanging out against a streaking AJ Brown. He's
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: we got him at nine to one. Jalen Carter had
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: another half sack on Sunday against Dallas, still minus money
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: to win Defensive Rookie of the Year, Simon. Let's get
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: to week ten. Okay, Thursday Night football, Carolina visiting Chicago.
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: Chicago is a three and a half point underdog. This
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: one feels kind of strange to me. I will say
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: the total is forty prime time unders twenty two and
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: seven one sixty one one O two and three since
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: twenty nineteen. Another prime time under last night, actually twenty
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: three and seven because I forgot to update from last night,
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: so three prime time unders this weekend. The Bears should
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: have beaten New Orleans outright Like the Bears had five turnovers,
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: New Orleans still only won by seven. Bryce Young throws
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: two pick six's, which were the difference in the game.
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: We like Caroline a lot. On Sunday, I think it
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: was the right side. They dominated that game. More total yards,
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: more total plays, more yards per play, more rushing yards.
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: India was truly terrible. What do we want to do here?
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: Just bet the under? Move on?
• 7:16
  Speaker 2: Yeah, a bit of a weird line though, right doesn't
• 7:18
  Speaker 2: it feel like a justin fields line. It feels like
• 7:21
  Speaker 2: a justin Fields line.
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: It feels, well, why do you say justin fields line?
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: Because the Bears are three and a half point dogs?
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: Like if if we knew field.
• 7:28
  Speaker 2: Was no, no, no, Bears are favorites. Yeah yeah, oh
• 7:32
  Speaker 2: they are. Yeah, nothing changed. I think they've been favorites,
• 7:36
  Speaker 2: haven't that? But they're minus three and a half.
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: All right, the shit, I guess I wrote down wrong.
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: That's weird.
• 7:42
  Speaker 2: Weird. Yeah, it's a game where you know, I'm just
• 7:46
  Speaker 2: going to be happy to take Carolina and I'm happy
• 7:49
  Speaker 2: to take the under. A lot of conversation about when
• 7:53
  Speaker 2: the books are going to adjust to this trend and
• 7:55
  Speaker 2: when they're going to catch you know, us betting these unders.
• 8:00
  Speaker 2: As long as the money keeps coming in late on
• 8:03
  Speaker 2: the over, I'm really not too worried about the books
• 8:06
  Speaker 2: catching up to us. I mean that number last night
• 8:08
  Speaker 2: moved from I believe thirty nine and closed at forty one,
• 8:11
  Speaker 2: and a lot of books by kickoff, Like that's what
• 8:14
  Speaker 2: keeps happening people, I'm telling you, like, you might think
• 8:16
  Speaker 2: everyone's on the under because on the app, and you know,
• 8:19
  Speaker 2: in the action app it says, you know, all the
• 8:21
  Speaker 2: money all the ticket is on the under in that
• 8:24
  Speaker 2: last hour. So much money always comes in on the over.
• 8:27
  Speaker 2: It's either people thinking they're smarter than ever all of
• 8:29
  Speaker 2: us and they're like, you know what we're doing for
• 8:31
  Speaker 2: an over? They come in on it, and then Joe
• 8:33
  Speaker 2: Public comes in on it. So right now, yeah, all
• 8:36
  Speaker 2: the bets, all the money is on the under. It'll
• 8:38
  Speaker 2: probably flip when it gets closer to it. I have
• 8:42
  Speaker 2: to just do it. I have to tick Caroline. I
• 8:44
  Speaker 2: have to stick the under. And it's a it's just
• 8:46
  Speaker 2: a bet on if it is fields. He hasn't played
• 8:50
  Speaker 2: a competitive football game and over a month, you expect
• 8:53
  Speaker 2: the guy who's not been the most accurate quarterback in
• 8:55
  Speaker 2: football to continue to be rusty coming back from an injury.
• 8:59
  Speaker 2: And on the Panthers side, I just I don't have
• 9:02
  Speaker 2: a model that can predict Bryce Young throwing pick sixes.
• 9:04
  Speaker 2: I wish I did. Me and Chat would be on
• 9:06
  Speaker 2: an island together if I did. But we assume you
• 9:11
  Speaker 2: won't have back to back weeks throwing pick sixes. So
• 9:15
  Speaker 2: if Brice can protect the ball, the Panthers will be
• 9:17
  Speaker 2: able to move the ball. I mean yea. Honestly, the
• 9:21
  Speaker 2: craziest thing craziest takeaway from that Saints game was how
• 9:23
  Speaker 2: good sweat was for you guys like that dude on
• 9:26
  Speaker 2: running plays, rushing the pass or sweat was it stood
• 9:30
  Speaker 2: out how good sweat is to your defense the Bears defense. Now,
• 9:34
  Speaker 2: you could say, well, that was just one game, don't
• 9:35
  Speaker 2: take too much from it, but that's a big deal
• 9:38
  Speaker 2: to me. You guys had no pulse on that d line.
• 9:40
  Speaker 2: A team could run it, they could pass it, they
• 9:42
  Speaker 2: could do whatever they want because they don't have to
• 9:43
  Speaker 2: really worry about a pass rush or your run defense.
• 9:46
  Speaker 2: So maybe I need to adjust more that sweat is
• 9:49
  Speaker 2: now in the Bears defense. But I still think teams
• 9:53
  Speaker 2: will be able to run the ball, and that's what
• 9:54
  Speaker 2: Carolina wants to do. So three and a half it
• 9:58
  Speaker 2: feels a little boring taken, but the fact that no
• 10:01
  Speaker 2: one really will on this Carolina team, right, everyone's just
• 10:03
  Speaker 2: off this stink like they just look so bad this week.
• 10:07
  Speaker 2: It's hard to avoid this number. Chen, I kind of
• 10:09
  Speaker 2: have to take it.
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: No, I agree, three and a half is totally this
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: side to me because Carolina they outplayed Indie last week
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: and it's like watching the Jets, right. Zach Wilson makes
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: horrific plays, but the rest of the team is playing
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: incredibly well. Yeah, and that's the difference maker, and that
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: this is what professional betters do. By the way, forty
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: eight hours later, they look at the entirety of what
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: happened in the game, They look at every line item
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: of the box score, and they're like, wait a second,
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: this team dominated the other team. We're gonna if we're
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: gonna look at the final score and make our bets
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: base in the final score, then we're no better than
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: any other smuck. So yes, I agree with you, Indy
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: and New England. And this is the Frankfurt, Germany game,
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: one of those dreaded games where the Colts started as
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: a dog. They're now the favorite. That's a forty four
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: to eighty four against the spread trend since twenty nineteen.
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: Of course, the Colts were in the same spot last
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: week against Carolina started as started in that same position,
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: and it's swung they covered. I hate saying that the
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: value is now on the Pats. I'm so glad this
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: camp be in the contest. We've talked about the Pats
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: all season. I want to spend his little time talking
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: about this game as possible.
• 11:40
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it feels like my gut instincts like you want
• 11:44
  Speaker 2: to take the Colts. Colts just had a bad game.
• 11:46
  Speaker 2: You expect them to bounce back offensively. You know, we
• 11:51
  Speaker 2: talked about the splits for Minshew. He's not that great
• 11:57
  Speaker 2: of a quarterback, right, I think I said going to
• 11:58
  Speaker 2: the last game in his last fourteen, three and eleven ats,
• 12:01
  Speaker 2: he's good and he's bad. He's good and he's bad.
• 12:03
  Speaker 2: That's just how Minshew is. That's why he's a backup
• 12:06
  Speaker 2: Mac Jones though, four and fifteen ats for my guy
• 12:10
  Speaker 2: Evan four and fifteen ats. So you know, I'll be
• 12:15
  Speaker 2: one of those people, admit, Like earlier this year, anytime
• 12:18
  Speaker 2: Mac was a dog with Belichick, it was like you
• 12:20
  Speaker 2: got to take this like you're getting Belichick as an underdog,
• 12:24
  Speaker 2: and that's that's born out. That's gone like that. That
• 12:27
  Speaker 2: mentality for me is totally gone. And I'm with you, Chad,
• 12:31
  Speaker 2: like I'm I'll probably end up on the culture. I'll
• 12:33
  Speaker 2: just pass on this one. I got no no itch
• 12:35
  Speaker 2: in my body to get in on this Colt. I
• 12:37
  Speaker 2: mean this Patriots team where Mac Jones just can't make
• 12:40
  Speaker 2: the throws and he doesn't have the talent around him either,
• 12:43
  Speaker 2: Like he has good running backs, but the receivers are
• 12:45
  Speaker 2: terrible and Mac is no better. So yeah, four and
• 12:48
  Speaker 2: fifteen ats as a dog Mac Jones, I just I
• 12:51
  Speaker 2: just can't do it.
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: All right, Let's get into the heart of it then,
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: because the Niners are visiting the Jags and Brock and
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: the Niners just had to buy he had been concussed. Uh,
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: they have been injured. After that Cowboys game, they've gone
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: into a tailspin. The Jags very sneaky six and two,
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: playing better since the London games. We talked about this
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: on Sunday night. We bet at a two and a half,
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: it moved up to three. You said it was your
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: first bet of the week. I don't know why anybody
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: wouldn't take this. With Jags at plus three, everything feels
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: like it's lining up in the right spot. Shanahan historically
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: not great as a favorite on the road. His teams
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: are much much better when there. The expectations are a
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: little bit lower, to be honest.
• 13:50
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I would say I get it from the standpoint
• 13:52
  Speaker 2: of they've lost three straights. The four Nines have lost
• 13:56
  Speaker 2: three straight. They had a bye week. You assume they
• 13:59
  Speaker 2: come back and get right against this Jaguars team that
• 14:04
  Speaker 2: I mean, they're they're probably the second, what, the second
• 14:08
  Speaker 2: hottest team of football behind the Ravens. I mean, people
• 14:10
  Speaker 2: don't realize it because they just came off a bye week, but.
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: Yeah, that's what I mean. It's very sneaky that they're
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: six and two. Like the AFC South is becoming more
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: interesting because of the Texans, but they're like, slowly but
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: surely they started. They started badly. They've been winning games,
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: they've been winning ugly games. They haven't even reached their
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: peak and they're six and two.
• 14:35
  Speaker 2: Yeah, and honestly, you know that that Houston game is
• 14:39
  Speaker 2: probably their worst game of the year. They lost what
• 14:43
  Speaker 2: was it, seventeen thirty seven. They like they got dominated,
• 14:47
  Speaker 2: but if you go back and look, that was that
• 14:49
  Speaker 2: wonky game of you know, Taryl Larns can stop turned
• 14:52
  Speaker 2: the ball over. They got a kick return Houston by
• 14:54
  Speaker 2: I think like a fullback something crazy like that. And
• 14:58
  Speaker 2: you know, since then, they've been good, Like they beat Atlanta,
• 15:01
  Speaker 2: they beat Buffalo, they beat the Colts, they beat the Saints,
• 15:04
  Speaker 2: then they just beat Pittsburgh then they had a bye week.
• 15:08
  Speaker 2: That's my only fear here is it's just like, what
• 15:10
  Speaker 2: are we not seeing, Chad, because that's obviously professional money
• 15:14
  Speaker 2: that's made this go up to three now. But I'll
• 15:16
  Speaker 2: take the three if the public and a couple of
• 15:19
  Speaker 2: pros love the forty nine ers. And you know, Chad
• 15:23
  Speaker 2: just said it, like Shanahan, he's kind of a different
• 15:25
  Speaker 2: coach than at home as a favorite than he is
• 15:27
  Speaker 2: on the road as a favorite. And I'm not going
• 15:32
  Speaker 2: to make this, Simon says, as much as I want to,
• 15:34
  Speaker 2: just because this could keep going up, like it could
• 15:38
  Speaker 2: go up to three and a half, but we'll grab
• 15:41
  Speaker 2: the three just in case it does come down. But
• 15:44
  Speaker 2: it's crazy. All the early money I'm looking at right
• 15:46
  Speaker 2: now in the action app all the early money is
• 15:48
  Speaker 2: on the forty nine ers. So I don't know, it's
• 15:51
  Speaker 2: just I just can't stop thinking that party has concussion.
• 15:55
  Speaker 2: He's not going to be healed from it right away,
• 15:56
  Speaker 2: and since he's gotten his head wrong, like you know,
• 15:59
  Speaker 2: it's they've lost three straight games, and you can put
• 16:05
  Speaker 2: blame wherever you won in these games. At the end
• 16:07
  Speaker 2: of the day, it all fell onto Purty. Perty was
• 16:09
  Speaker 2: the one that kept turning the ball over. He's the
• 16:10
  Speaker 2: one that when the game was close, they needed winning drive.
• 16:14
  Speaker 2: He got making mistakes and the four nine ers could
• 16:18
  Speaker 2: have picked a better time to have that bye week, right,
• 16:19
  Speaker 2: they might be getting back Trent Williams, the best tackle
• 16:22
  Speaker 2: in football arguably and Deebo Samuel. So big, big deal,
• 16:27
  Speaker 2: big deal for that four nine ers team. It's don't
• 16:33
  Speaker 2: don't go crazy ben this one yet, people, but you
• 16:35
  Speaker 2: have to grab the three, Like if you listen to
• 16:36
  Speaker 2: the show, you know which we love Home Dogs. You
• 16:39
  Speaker 2: got it, Dote, you got to grab the plus three
• 16:41
  Speaker 2: here and Evan just putting our chat. It could be
• 16:43
  Speaker 2: windy and Jacksonville as well, which you know between these
• 16:47
  Speaker 2: two teams might be looking to the under like Jags
• 16:50
  Speaker 2: defense better than people get perceived. Forty nine Ers defense
• 16:54
  Speaker 2: not as bad as that people are perceiving right now. Right,
• 16:56
  Speaker 2: they've looked bad these last couple of weeks. You know,
• 16:59
  Speaker 2: they just had a tough stretch where they got diced
• 17:02
  Speaker 2: up by Kirk, they got diced up by uh, you know,
• 17:07
  Speaker 2: Joe Burrow, Like they just they've had a bad run here.
• 17:10
  Speaker 2: So the fact that it might be windy that actually
• 17:13
  Speaker 2: would help that forty nine ers defense.
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: Uh, this next game, we haven't talked about it, yet
• 17:20
  Speaker 1: Tennessee visiting Tampa Bay. This is a Mike Vrabel we
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: love you spot. They're off of a right, they're off
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: of a bad loss against a really good defense now
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: playing a team that is coached by basically the bizarro
• 17:42
  Speaker 1: Mike Rabel. If Mike Brabel, we love him because over
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: the past twenty years, he's one of the most profitable
• 17:48
  Speaker 1: coaches in the NFL. Todd Bowles. Todd Bowles the past
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: twenty years one hundred and forty three out of one
• 17:59
  Speaker 1: hundred and forty eight coaches. In terms of profitability against
• 18:03
  Speaker 1: the spread, he has one hundred and forty three out
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: of one hundred and forty eight. I mean, you know,
• 18:12
  Speaker 1: right now, we got Tennessee as a short road dog
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: plus one and a half. I got some other stats here,
• 18:20
  Speaker 1: but I want to get your take on what you
• 18:21
  Speaker 1: think of this because we didn't discuss it at all,
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: and I'm feeling like, how did we miss this? One
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: has a move, so we didn't miss anything, but we
• 18:29
  Speaker 1: just didn't bring it up.
• 18:31
  Speaker 2: Yeah, and initially I wanted to be on Titans. The
• 18:33
  Speaker 2: fear here is the Titans' only weakness on defense is
• 18:38
  Speaker 2: their secondary the only thing Tampa can do good is
• 18:42
  Speaker 2: give the ball on Mike Evans and Chris Godwin and
• 18:46
  Speaker 2: you know, a little scary like you're trying to convince
• 18:48
  Speaker 2: me it back a rookie quarterback again on the road.
• 18:52
  Speaker 2: And I do agree, right, the Pittsburgh's defense is actually
• 18:56
  Speaker 2: legit compared to the Bucks defense, which looked like tissue paper. Right.
• 19:00
  Speaker 2: I mean, Houston went up and down the field at
• 19:02
  Speaker 2: will on this team, but they do have guys like
• 19:05
  Speaker 2: That's the hardest part here is they got guys on
• 19:07
  Speaker 2: this Tampa team that like they're playmakers. I know they
• 19:10
  Speaker 2: haven't shown up and they have a lot of holes
• 19:11
  Speaker 2: and Todd Bowles's defensive scheme is just trash. But it's hard.
• 19:16
  Speaker 2: I can't get there right now, Chad with you. Maybe
• 19:18
  Speaker 2: by Thursday, I'll get there on this Tennessee team. But
• 19:21
  Speaker 2: as we sit here right now, I don't know how
• 19:24
  Speaker 2: much I love Tennessee. In the spot.
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: Let me give you a couple more stats. You're not wrong.
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: They got guys. You're not wrong, rush D. This is
• 19:36
  Speaker 1: why I love you. I didn't even tell you what
• 19:38
  Speaker 1: I was going to want you to bring up so
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: I could get these stats in the Bucks defense is
• 19:45
  Speaker 1: getting exposed every single week. I know Vidave is back,
• 19:48
  Speaker 1: but they're rush D bottom five grade per Pro Football Focus.
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: They're past D bottom ten coverage, which has nothing to
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: do with vidavea bottom five. So they're going to get
• 20:01
  Speaker 1: a quarterback who likes to fling it almost blindly sometimes,
• 20:06
  Speaker 1: and every guy he tries to throw to might be open.
• 20:13
  Speaker 1: This will be like by the time we get to
• 20:15
  Speaker 1: the end of Thursday, like we're gonna have six or
• 20:17
  Speaker 1: seven games, and this will probably be one of the
• 20:20
  Speaker 1: games that is on that like.
• 20:22
  Speaker 2: Oh god, okay, you'll probably better convince me that. So,
• 20:25
  Speaker 2: I mean, I need more time on this one. I
• 20:26
  Speaker 2: just I just didn't know what to deal with it.
• 20:28
  Speaker 1: This is this is my my favorite game this week.
• 20:33
  Speaker 1: Cleveland and Baltimore. Baltimore is a six point favorite. I
• 20:38
  Speaker 1: loved it on Sunday. It was at five. I betted
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: at five, it moved up. I bet it again at six.
• 20:49
  Speaker 1: Give me the Cleveland Browns. My exact decision, the choice
• 20:54
  Speaker 1: between the unthinkable and the impossible?
• 20:57
  Speaker 2: Are you have your orders texting your numb execut have decision.
• 21:02
  Speaker 1: I feel like there should be four. It makes no
• 21:05
  Speaker 1: sense to me. Everything we can talk about, says, take
• 21:09
  Speaker 1: the underdog in a divisional game between two great defenses.
• 21:12
  Speaker 1: Don't I don't get this. You're a professional, better explain
• 21:15
  Speaker 1: it to me.
• 21:16
  Speaker 2: I did. I told you Sunday night why you should
• 21:18
  Speaker 2: have waited. It's it's the Deshaun Watson. It's just it's
• 21:23
  Speaker 2: unclear what the hell Deshaun Watson is. I don't know
• 21:25
  Speaker 2: if it's Deshaun Watson the old, which is a top
• 21:27
  Speaker 2: ten quarterback, or this is who Deshaun Watson is now,
• 21:31
  Speaker 2: which is a you know, top twenty, maybe number eighteen
• 21:36
  Speaker 2: quarterback in this league. He's just he's not what he
• 21:40
  Speaker 2: used to be. You'll have moments, these little these little
• 21:42
  Speaker 2: flashes of great throws and get it outside the pocket
• 21:44
  Speaker 2: and making good reads, and then you'll have these other
• 21:46
  Speaker 2: moments of just a guy that looks like at him
• 21:48
  Speaker 2: play competitive football in two years. It is tough for
• 21:53
  Speaker 2: me to get there, Chad, Like I, I mean, six
• 21:56
  Speaker 2: is such a key number. I'll probably get there now
• 21:58
  Speaker 2: with you on that number. But this feels like Seattle
• 22:01
  Speaker 2: over again, where it's just like you just take the
• 22:03
  Speaker 2: money line against the Ravens. Here like this feels like
• 22:06
  Speaker 2: the Ravens will roll again, or they'll lose a close
• 22:09
  Speaker 2: one to Cleveland because Cleveland, like Chad said, they got
• 22:11
  Speaker 2: the defense for it right. We talked last time they
• 22:14
  Speaker 2: played the Browns, the way they structured this D line
• 22:18
  Speaker 2: was kind of shut down Lamar and Joe Burrow, these
• 22:22
  Speaker 2: guys who can move in the pocket. They wanted to
• 22:24
  Speaker 2: have really fast guys on the edges that could keep
• 22:26
  Speaker 2: up with these guys if they do scramble. And you know,
• 22:30
  Speaker 2: the first time they played it was a total throwaway game.
• 22:33
  Speaker 2: Cleveland had in that I think rookie who threw multiple
• 22:36
  Speaker 2: picks and was just a complete disaster. I think it
• 22:39
  Speaker 2: was twenty seven to three again early in the season.
• 22:41
  Speaker 2: I could be wrong, but they got smoked. I want
• 22:45
  Speaker 2: to be there with you in Cleveland, like this is
• 22:47
  Speaker 2: a great defense. They know how big of a deal
• 22:49
  Speaker 2: this game is. Divisionally, it's huge. We say it every week,
• 22:54
  Speaker 2: but it's been true like this, this is peak, this
• 22:58
  Speaker 2: is peak on Lamar and this Ravens team. Like they've
• 23:03
  Speaker 2: been the best team the AFC through a couple of weeks.
• 23:06
  Speaker 2: Usually me and you like coming on the other side.
• 23:07
  Speaker 2: So I'll join you on the sixth chap. I'll tell
• 23:10
  Speaker 2: to everyone you can grab the six. But another game
• 23:12
  Speaker 2: that I think could keep going up just because all
• 23:15
  Speaker 2: the teasers, all the parlays will be tied to this
• 23:17
  Speaker 2: Ravens team.
• 23:18
  Speaker 1: Miles Garrett right now is dominant no matter what the position.
• 23:25
  Speaker 1: He is one of the one of the top five
• 23:28
  Speaker 1: most impactful players in football right now. He has the
• 23:32
  Speaker 1: best pass rush win rate in the NFL, the second
• 23:37
  Speaker 1: best run stop win rate. Essentially, this is the percent
• 23:41
  Speaker 1: of time in a game that this player impacts a play,
• 23:45
  Speaker 1: so basically, every single time he's on the field, he's
• 23:47
  Speaker 1: impacting the play. As a team, Cleveland is better at
• 23:52
  Speaker 1: pass rush win rate, run stop win rate offensively pass
• 23:56
  Speaker 1: block win rate just behind Baltimore run block win rate.
• 24:01
  Speaker 1: The Browns are actually graded as the best pass rush
• 24:05
  Speaker 1: in the NFL. The Ravens are sixteenth. Ravens Rush D
• 24:08
  Speaker 1: and Brown's rush OH are essentially even. Then there's this
• 24:15
  Speaker 1: Harbaugh favorite of three and a half or more under
• 24:20
  Speaker 1: five hundred against the spread five and fourteen the last
• 24:24
  Speaker 1: three years. Lamar three and a half, three and a
• 24:27
  Speaker 1: half or more as a favorite twenty twenty nine, one
• 24:31
  Speaker 1: hundred and sixty eighth of one hundred and seventy five
• 24:33
  Speaker 1: quarterbacks against the spread the past twenty years, and then
• 24:37
  Speaker 1: we refer to the stat a bunch this year. It's
• 24:39
  Speaker 1: my favorite stat this year. Home faves in the division
• 24:44
  Speaker 1: since twenty fifteen forty five percent against the spread. This
• 24:52
  Speaker 1: one just like it could go up. You're right, it
• 24:54
  Speaker 1: could totally go up, and maybe it will. And I'm
• 24:57
  Speaker 1: just I'm gonna do the Simon Hunter play. I believe
• 25:02
  Speaker 1: in the game it goes up, I'm getting a better number,
• 25:05
  Speaker 1: just gonna better it again, and it'll end up being
• 25:07
  Speaker 1: my entire bank bro for the year, because this game
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: will keep going up and I'll lose it all on
• 25:13
  Speaker 1: the Cleveland fucking Browns. It'll be another mistake I get
• 25:18
  Speaker 1: myself into because of the Cleveland Browns. But just doesn't
• 25:21
  Speaker 1: make sense to me. Yeah, all right, Houston at Cincinnati.
• 25:29
  Speaker 1: I feel like you this is to me like the
• 25:31
  Speaker 1: Cowboys and the Eagles were, Like, it feels a little
• 25:34
  Speaker 1: square to you. You can't quite get there. You're gonna
• 25:37
  Speaker 1: get information that the wise guys are liking it for
• 25:39
  Speaker 1: some reason, like this is where my tomfoolery and my
• 25:46
  Speaker 1: sort of lack of vision might actually play to our benefit.
• 25:51
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I just get scared off of games I perceive
• 25:53
  Speaker 2: as coin flip games, and I do. I try my
• 25:56
  Speaker 2: best to avoid those type of games, like that Eagles game.
• 25:59
  Speaker 2: It was a win, but at the end of the day,
• 26:01
  Speaker 2: it was a coin flip. It came down to a
• 26:02
  Speaker 2: two pointer and we were on the right side of
• 26:04
  Speaker 2: that two pointer. You know, that Houston and Bucks game
• 26:10
  Speaker 2: total coin flip game, and I couldn't avoid it because
• 26:14
  Speaker 2: the numbers didn't make sense, and we got lucky where
• 26:16
  Speaker 2: it worked out for us, because I just think, get
• 26:18
  Speaker 2: why it was two and a half. It was like
• 26:19
  Speaker 2: everyone in the world was betting Houston. All the money
• 26:21
  Speaker 2: was coming on Houston, but the number one from three
• 26:24
  Speaker 2: on the Bucks down to two and a half. So
• 26:26
  Speaker 2: those are things I'm looking for where it's like if
• 26:28
  Speaker 2: I don't understand a game, I don't trust a number
• 26:30
  Speaker 2: and I think it's a coin flip game, but the
• 26:32
  Speaker 2: number of reverse moves and it's moving towards what I
• 26:35
  Speaker 2: think is gonna happen, which is obviously the book's covering.
• 26:37
  Speaker 2: It's like, Okay, that gives me confidence. But on the
• 26:40
  Speaker 2: flip side, like that Jets game, I told you like
• 26:43
  Speaker 2: I did, not like I was just sitting at three
• 26:45
  Speaker 2: and a half. When when there's a game like that
• 26:47
  Speaker 2: and it's a public dog and it's a primetime public dog,
• 26:50
  Speaker 2: those are things you look for. So it is tough
• 26:53
  Speaker 2: where we do a show like here on Tuesday, just
• 26:55
  Speaker 2: like the Jets last week, we did the show Tuesday.
• 26:57
  Speaker 2: So I already had been betting since Sunday night. Bet
• 27:00
  Speaker 2: it Tuesday, bet it again, Wednesday, I bet it again,
• 27:02
  Speaker 2: Thursday better Friday, Saturday. Started losing confidence me and you
• 27:06
  Speaker 2: talk Sunday morning. I'm just like, I fucking hate this Jets.
• 27:09
  Speaker 2: Pick what are we gonna do? I'm already heavily invested
• 27:12
  Speaker 2: in it. I promoted on multiple different shows we did,
• 27:15
  Speaker 2: so yeah, that's the fir for me. Chat. It's like
• 27:18
  Speaker 2: this week, Like I know, we said last week was tough.
• 27:21
  Speaker 2: This week there's a couple of lines that really jump
• 27:23
  Speaker 2: out where it's like that feels too good to be true.
• 27:25
  Speaker 2: And that's what this Browns number feels like like six
• 27:27
  Speaker 2: Like you just said, way too many points this defense
• 27:30
  Speaker 2: to be getting. So definitely a weird line.
• 27:33
  Speaker 1: Let me have no fear enough for both of us
• 27:36
  Speaker 1: Houston Houston at since y since he was a seven
• 27:40
  Speaker 1: point favorite. It's down to six and a half. Bets
• 27:44
  Speaker 1: are coming in on Sincy, money's coming in on Houston. Look,
• 27:49
  Speaker 1: Joe Burrow right now is nine to one to win
• 27:52
  Speaker 1: MVP after the Sunday night game. When October began, he
• 27:55
  Speaker 1: was fifty to one. Meanwhile, c J. Stroud is having
• 27:59
  Speaker 1: coming off the best for a rookie quarterback in history.
• 28:03
  Speaker 1: Since the defense is actually pretty middle of the road,
• 28:07
  Speaker 1: just top five against the rush.
• 28:10
  Speaker 2: C J.
• 28:10
  Speaker 1: Stroud is very good under pressure and that's because he
• 28:16
  Speaker 1: doesn't feel the pressure because he gets the ball away
• 28:19
  Speaker 1: in two seconds, literally two seconds, which is just behind
• 28:23
  Speaker 1: Joe Burrow and two of for quickest release in the NFL.
• 28:26
  Speaker 1: I don't have a strong opinion on this one. If I,
• 28:28
  Speaker 1: if I had been smart, I would have played Houston
• 28:31
  Speaker 1: a plus seven. I didn't doesn't feel like a contest
• 28:34
  Speaker 1: play to me.
• 28:37
  Speaker 2: I'm on the other side right now. I love Bengals.
• 28:39
  Speaker 2: I love Bengals on the screen. You're getting to fade
• 28:45
  Speaker 2: a rookie off a historical performance. I know he's cool headed,
• 28:49
  Speaker 2: like he's not gonna let us head get too big
• 28:50
  Speaker 2: from it, but it's gonna be a big difference going
• 28:54
  Speaker 2: at home throwing up thrown against air. Now he's going
• 28:57
  Speaker 2: on the road to Cincy, playing against a legiti AFC contender.
• 29:02
  Speaker 2: That's a reason this number is so big. That's why
• 29:04
  Speaker 2: I like a couple people in message, why don't you
• 29:05
  Speaker 2: guys talk about Houston at the seven. I just don't
• 29:08
  Speaker 2: want anyone to bet it. I just I thought that
• 29:09
  Speaker 2: was a weird number in the first place. Even before
• 29:11
  Speaker 2: the Bengals game, I thought to myself, that's just a
• 29:13
  Speaker 2: weird number. They're hanging out there that you can grab
• 29:16
  Speaker 2: Houston before this game's even played at plus seven. I mean,
• 29:19
  Speaker 2: if that Bengalis said they had lost that game, what's
• 29:22
  Speaker 2: this dropped to four and a half? Most likely, like
• 29:24
  Speaker 2: it just would have been a total overreaction by the public.
• 29:27
  Speaker 2: And it feels like they're reacting on Houston right now,
• 29:30
  Speaker 2: just the fact that they're just blindly betting this number
• 29:33
  Speaker 2: at what it's at. The question right now is what
• 29:39
  Speaker 2: is what is the difference between CJ at home than
• 29:42
  Speaker 2: on the road? Right we've seen the splits. I think
• 29:44
  Speaker 2: I don't want could go look at the splits. He's
• 29:46
  Speaker 2: a totally different quarterback at home than on the road.
• 29:49
  Speaker 2: You know, the previous week before last week, they lost
• 29:52
  Speaker 2: to the Panthers thirteen to fifteen on the road. Right,
• 29:55
  Speaker 2: struggled to struggle on the road. Let's go two weeks
• 29:58
  Speaker 2: before that, he played in a lan Remember how bad
• 30:01
  Speaker 2: this Atlanta secondary is. This Atlanta secondary has given up
• 30:03
  Speaker 2: all these yards at will Levis just gave up a
• 30:05
  Speaker 2: ton of yards of the dobbs. They lost nineteen to
• 30:08
  Speaker 2: twenty one to Atlanta on the road. And he just
• 30:11
  Speaker 2: had a bad game as well, because why because he
• 30:13
  Speaker 2: struggled in the red zone. So I believe you're able
• 30:16
  Speaker 2: to move the ball, like you said, up and down
• 30:18
  Speaker 2: the field on sincey, but when they get in the
• 30:20
  Speaker 2: red zone, that's what since he's really good at this year.
• 30:23
  Speaker 2: And yeah, some of those early numbers on their defensive front,
• 30:29
  Speaker 2: they were bad the first three four weeks defensively the
• 30:31
  Speaker 2: Sincy team. So those numbers do make sense that they
• 30:34
  Speaker 2: don't project out as a great defense right now. But
• 30:37
  Speaker 2: can we all say we've seen something different than these
• 30:39
  Speaker 2: last couple of weeks. I mean the way they played
• 30:41
  Speaker 2: against the forty nine ers, the way they played against
• 30:43
  Speaker 2: Josh Allen. I mean Josh Allen. You could say he
• 30:45
  Speaker 2: had a bad game that game. I thought he played
• 30:47
  Speaker 2: really well. I just thought since he kept taking away
• 30:48
  Speaker 2: what he wanted to do, which they took away digs.
• 30:50
  Speaker 2: So yeah, here we go, another great staff from our guy,
• 30:53
  Speaker 2: Evan Stroud. Nine point three yards per attempt at home,
• 30:57
  Speaker 2: he's six point nine on the road. Oh that's that's
• 31:00
  Speaker 2: a pretty big drop off on the yards he's getting
• 31:02
  Speaker 2: through the air passing. So not going to be suckering
• 31:05
  Speaker 2: into this one. Like I got my first flance was like,
• 31:07
  Speaker 2: take Houston. That's a huge number, too big. I'm gonna
• 31:11
  Speaker 2: go at the Bengals and I'll back them at six
• 31:13
  Speaker 2: and a half. Here you know what Simon says, six
• 31:15
  Speaker 2: and a half Bengals.
• 31:17
  Speaker 3: When Simon says do it, we do what Simon's say.
• 31:21
  Speaker 2: No, Wow, I can't believe it did it because I
• 31:25
  Speaker 2: wasn't Eve gonna do that. But I just I don't
• 31:26
  Speaker 2: feel confident about this one where it's just big splits.
• 31:29
  Speaker 1: I'm so glad you said that because in my notes
• 31:33
  Speaker 1: when I was researching the game yesterday, like I couldn't
• 31:38
  Speaker 1: like and it was seven, I couldn't get a sense
• 31:40
  Speaker 1: of where the inflation was, and I'm like, I think
• 31:42
  Speaker 1: it's Houston, But I'm not quite sure, and like because
• 31:46
  Speaker 1: you had so much like positivity from both sides.
• 31:50
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it's hard.
• 31:51
  Speaker 1: So you're bringing clarity right now, and you're giving me
• 31:55
  Speaker 1: comfort to bet on the team that we think is
• 31:58
  Speaker 1: better and is really playing like one of the two
• 32:02
  Speaker 1: or three best teams in the AFC, along with the
• 32:04
  Speaker 1: Ravens and the Chiefs. To bet on them as in
• 32:07
  Speaker 1: your touchdown favorite and we're getting the half point different.
• 32:10
  Speaker 1: So you're calling it, You're putting your credibility behind it,
• 32:15
  Speaker 1: your authority, your genius. I fucking love that you just
• 32:19
  Speaker 1: made this, Simon says. I did not see this coming,
• 32:21
  Speaker 1: didn't see it. Love this, Simon. I love when there's
• 32:27
  Speaker 1: magic like that. You know where there's not magic New Orleans,
• 32:32
  Speaker 1: it's just luck. This team another one. We talked about
• 32:36
  Speaker 1: it on Sunday night. They're at Minnesota, the game open
• 32:39
  Speaker 1: at three, Minnesota plus three, down to two and a half.
• 32:42
  Speaker 1: We expected it to move in the Vikings direction. It did.
• 32:46
  Speaker 1: I mentioned earlier in the show when talking about the Bears,
• 32:50
  Speaker 1: how lucky the Saints got and all the stats are
• 32:54
  Speaker 1: in our direction. Here about how terrible car is as
• 32:58
  Speaker 1: a favorite. He did not cover against the Bears. They
• 33:01
  Speaker 1: needed five turnovers to win. I went back and counted
• 33:06
  Speaker 1: yesterday when I was doing my research. All of those
• 33:10
  Speaker 1: turnovers for the Bears were in Bears territory led to
• 33:16
  Speaker 1: ten points. Another was a miss Saints field goal, include
• 33:20
  Speaker 1: a fourth down stop and a punt like they couldn't
• 33:25
  Speaker 1: convert anything. We've been talking about Derek Carr being better
• 33:28
  Speaker 1: as he got closer to the goal line. That wasn't it.
• 33:32
  Speaker 1: This team got very lucky to walk away from that
• 33:35
  Speaker 1: game with a win. So now we got Josh Dobbs.
• 33:41
  Speaker 1: There's always something weird about backup quarterbacks when they come in.
• 33:46
  Speaker 1: It flips the script on your bet, right because all
• 33:49
  Speaker 1: of a sudden, like there's havoc that's being created in
• 33:54
  Speaker 1: weird ways that a team has to defend against. Jobs
• 34:00
  Speaker 1: doesn't have that this week. He might just go back
• 34:02
  Speaker 1: to being Josh Jobs from the Cardinals. So I don't
• 34:06
  Speaker 1: really have a strong opinion on this game.
• 34:09
  Speaker 2: Yeah, another game where it feels like we're able to
• 34:11
  Speaker 2: buy low on the Saints team. I think most people
• 34:14
  Speaker 2: perceive what you just said, which is like the Saints
• 34:16
  Speaker 2: got pretty lucky. They didn't play that good last week,
• 34:19
  Speaker 2: which is true, Like they didn't play that great. How
• 34:24
  Speaker 2: only reason I want to back the Vikings because it's
• 34:25
  Speaker 2: a fun story. It's a fun team, but the numbers
• 34:29
  Speaker 2: move too much. The value is now on the Saints.
• 34:31
  Speaker 2: You're getting a better team under three playing against you know,
• 34:36
  Speaker 2: a team's backup. They just brought in like they're gonna
• 34:40
  Speaker 2: see the tape. The tape will be pretty simple. It's
• 34:42
  Speaker 2: like if you can stop you can stop Dobbs from
• 34:45
  Speaker 2: you know, running outside the pocket and picking up first downs.
• 34:48
  Speaker 2: They're dead like the guy. The guy only knew when
• 34:52
  Speaker 2: when If you go back and watch a film when
• 34:53
  Speaker 2: they would run routes, they basically only had five plays
• 34:56
  Speaker 2: to run. They must have went to them and said,
• 34:58
  Speaker 2: what are the five plays? You know? And they just
• 35:00
  Speaker 2: ran those five plays. It's I'm with everyone, it's such
• 35:05
  Speaker 2: a fun story, but I need to like be the
• 35:07
  Speaker 2: professional game that I am and take the value here.
• 35:10
  Speaker 2: The value is the Saints. Like their defense is good.
• 35:13
  Speaker 2: They're what I talked about the Derek Carr in the
• 35:16
  Speaker 2: red zones are real thing, but they're kind of neutralizing
• 35:19
  Speaker 2: that with the Taysom Hill aspect. Like Taysom Hill came in,
• 35:23
  Speaker 2: what do he do he? I think he ran for
• 35:25
  Speaker 2: a touchdown and he received a touchdown. I think my guy, uh,
• 35:32
  Speaker 2: I think it was. Chris Raymond said that since week
• 35:35
  Speaker 2: like three, Taysom Hill is tied with Travis Kelcey's number
• 35:39
  Speaker 2: one tight end in fantasy football. So it's a thing
• 35:42
  Speaker 2: where they're just been using him like they started. They started.
• 35:45
  Speaker 2: They started the season, I really using Taysom Hill, and
• 35:47
  Speaker 2: the season has gone on here they've kind of figured
• 35:49
  Speaker 2: out how to use him. So Vikings, they were being
• 35:54
  Speaker 2: held up by Kirk Cousins, right. We talked all year
• 35:57
  Speaker 2: like they have a bad defense. They're the one that
• 35:59
  Speaker 2: most blitz heavy defense in all football because they have
• 36:01
  Speaker 2: no talent. And Leslie Frazier just knows, I just got
• 36:04
  Speaker 2: a blitz like I don't have the dudes to cover.
• 36:07
  Speaker 2: We gotta get pressure on the quarterback, rush to the
• 36:08
  Speaker 2: quarterback being lost in the shufflers. Heindekee put up what
• 36:12
  Speaker 2: twenty eight points against this defense and this Vikings team.
• 36:18
  Speaker 2: It's hard for me not to want to back the
• 36:19
  Speaker 2: Saints here. And another staff from our guy, Evan Dobbs,
• 36:23
  Speaker 2: is one and nine straight up as a starter. Chat.
• 36:26
  Speaker 2: So if this number keeps moving, if this dips between
• 36:29
  Speaker 2: one and a half. This might not being one of
• 36:31
  Speaker 2: my biggest bets of the week. I'm gonna hate myself
• 36:33
  Speaker 2: putting this much money on Derek Carr, but it's just
• 36:36
  Speaker 2: that's the way the line's moving people.
• 36:37
  Speaker 1: You know what's funny is sometimes I'm taking notes while
• 36:40
  Speaker 1: we're doing the podcast so I can refer to it
• 36:43
  Speaker 1: on Thursday and then on Sunday and our conversations about
• 36:46
  Speaker 1: what we're going to put in there. Sometimes we start
• 36:49
  Speaker 1: talking about a game and you say you like it,
• 36:52
  Speaker 1: and I'm like, I'm not even gonna write that one down.
• 36:55
  Speaker 1: And then as it goes along, that's fair. And then
• 36:58
  Speaker 1: as it goes along, like I hear you talking about
• 37:00
  Speaker 1: it more and more, I'm like, oh fuck, he loves me.
• 37:03
  Speaker 3: I know.
• 37:04
  Speaker 2: That's that's how I feel. That's how I feel.
• 37:06
  Speaker 1: And then you just you just told me it will
• 37:11
  Speaker 1: move down. It will end up being one of your
• 37:12
  Speaker 1: biggest bets of the week. We will have to put
• 37:14
  Speaker 1: it in the contest. And it's making me sick because
• 37:17
  Speaker 1: now I just started adding up like the contest is
• 37:19
  Speaker 1: going to be. It'll end up being the fucking Jags
• 37:22
  Speaker 1: plus three, the Titans plus one, and a half Saints
• 37:26
  Speaker 1: the Saints, like it'll get down to minus one and
• 37:28
  Speaker 1: a half, Like, oh my god, it's gonna be fucking terrible.
• 37:31
  Speaker 2: By the way, that's.
• 37:34
  Speaker 1: That's right, producer Tito reporting in the chat, the Rams
• 37:38
  Speaker 1: are signing Carson Wentz.
• 37:40
  Speaker 2: My my old, my old hero. I still love, still
• 37:44
  Speaker 2: have his jersey, never burned it. Thank you Carson Wentz
• 37:46
  Speaker 2: for my Super Bowl and I'm happy for him going
• 37:48
  Speaker 2: the Rams. Maybe I'll have that Baker bump Baker went
• 37:50
  Speaker 2: to the RAMS completely helped him re energize and relearn
• 37:55
  Speaker 2: football with McVeigh and hope. Nothing the best for Wentz,
• 37:59
  Speaker 2: but pretty horrible, pretty horrible for me as someone that
• 38:02
  Speaker 2: has a decent amount of money on Rams over six
• 38:06
  Speaker 2: and a half wins. This might mean Stafford's out for
• 38:09
  Speaker 2: a little while, which is just not what I wanted
• 38:12
  Speaker 2: to hear. So hopefully this is a signing just to
• 38:13
  Speaker 2: be the backup, not to come in and be like
• 38:16
  Speaker 2: a starter for the next four weeks.
• 38:18
  Speaker 1: Well, it's appropriate that Tito gave us the news because,
• 38:20
  Speaker 1: as a reminder for the second time, catch every episode
• 38:23
  Speaker 1: of The Favorites live on YouTube. For those enjoying on YouTube,
• 38:28
  Speaker 1: don't forget to give us a like and subscribe to
• 38:30
  Speaker 1: the Action Network YouTube page. Okay, next game up, green
• 38:35
  Speaker 1: Bay at Pittsburg. I was gonna say pitt but that's
• 38:38
  Speaker 1: not really how they say it. Green Bay at Pittsburgh.
• 38:40
  Speaker 1: The Steelers are three point favorites, not a spot that
• 38:43
  Speaker 1: we tend to like. Backing Mike Tomlin, you talked about
• 38:46
  Speaker 1: this on Sunday. You liked it at two and a half,
• 38:49
  Speaker 1: you liked it at three. I was hesitant. Came around
• 38:53
  Speaker 1: it started to make sense. Jordan Love is terrible. He's
• 38:57
  Speaker 1: not even getting blitzed that often but still has one
• 38:59
  Speaker 1: of the highest throw percentages in the league.
• 39:02
  Speaker 2: Horrible, horrible.
• 39:04
  Speaker 1: We really don't like Tomlin when he's not a dog.
• 39:09
  Speaker 3: I try to keep it real simple. Football is our game.
• 39:12
  Speaker 3: Our business is winning. There's a business component of this thing.
• 39:16
  Speaker 3: And when we win, into business is being handled and
• 39:18
  Speaker 3: when you not is not.
• 39:20
  Speaker 1: And then Simon, I don't know if you saw this
• 39:22
  Speaker 1: or not in Slack in our luck Rankings channel, Nick Giffin,
• 39:29
  Speaker 1: let us know this is a massive luck rankings game
• 39:36
  Speaker 1: in favor of the Packers.
• 39:38
  Speaker 2: Damn it, I know it.
• 39:39
  Speaker 1: Actually, Like there's very few stats and trends we do.
• 39:44
  Speaker 1: There's a couple that, like I believe in more than others,
• 39:48
  Speaker 1: like the divisional game that I just talked about with
• 39:50
  Speaker 1: the Browns, Like I believe in that, right, I truly
• 39:52
  Speaker 1: believe that is a real signal in the noise. Luck
• 39:57
  Speaker 1: rankings to me are a signal in the noise because
• 40:00
  Speaker 1: we don't do them haphazardly. We only talk about them
• 40:03
  Speaker 1: when there's real meaning and real delta that can be
• 40:06
  Speaker 1: of value to people. So this fucking kills me because
• 40:10
  Speaker 1: I know we're both on Pittsburgh at two and a
• 40:11
  Speaker 1: half and three.
• 40:13
  Speaker 2: Yeah, and it's things to where it's like, if you
• 40:16
  Speaker 2: want to just play the lazy way, you just take
• 40:19
  Speaker 2: Pittsburgh and the Green Bay under first half, Like both
• 40:24
  Speaker 2: these teams apparently are the worst. I have to check
• 40:26
  Speaker 2: it again, but I'm almost positive. Before I came on
• 40:28
  Speaker 2: my notes, I had it as both bottom five and
• 40:32
  Speaker 2: points scored in the first half, Like these are just
• 40:34
  Speaker 2: two teams. And we joked about the Steelers, how many
• 40:37
  Speaker 2: games did they look dead in the first half and
• 40:39
  Speaker 2: then somehow win coming out in that second half, And
• 40:42
  Speaker 2: they've had a bunch of games that way this year.
• 40:45
  Speaker 2: Green Bay is a dead all game, I mean that
• 40:48
  Speaker 2: Rams game. They were begging to lose that game in
• 40:52
  Speaker 2: every way possible. And even though the Rams are banged up,
• 40:55
  Speaker 2: even defensively, Green Bay couldn't do anything offensively. They're just bad.
• 41:01
  Speaker 2: Like and as much I want to put it on
• 41:03
  Speaker 2: Jordan of Love that he's so bad as well, it
• 41:07
  Speaker 2: has to follow on the coaches as well. Right, are
• 41:09
  Speaker 2: they really putting him in the best positions? And if
• 41:11
  Speaker 2: they are, then yeah, he's a complete flop. And I'm
• 41:15
  Speaker 2: assuming they'll move on from them after this year or
• 41:17
  Speaker 2: maybe next year. But uh, I'm with you, Chad, Like
• 41:22
  Speaker 2: I'd feel more confident if more books were shown this
• 41:24
  Speaker 2: at three and a half, Like that would make me
• 41:26
  Speaker 2: feel good because that's like, Okay, at least we got
• 41:27
  Speaker 2: the best number two and a half. At least we
• 41:29
  Speaker 2: got the good number at three. A couple of books
• 41:31
  Speaker 2: have shown the three and a half and then they
• 41:32
  Speaker 2: come back down to the three. You know, maybe we'll
• 41:36
  Speaker 2: get there by Sunday. Like people know I'm gonna be better.
• 41:38
  Speaker 2: I'm investing in this one. I'm gonna be invested in Pittsburgh.
• 41:40
  Speaker 2: I'll be taking Pittsburgh in this game. As long as
• 41:43
  Speaker 2: that three two and a half. I'm gonna be back
• 41:45
  Speaker 2: in Pittsburgh this number. But I'm definitely with you, like
• 41:48
  Speaker 2: the splits, the trends with Tomlin as a favorite, not great,
• 41:52
  Speaker 2: not don't give me as confident as we get when
• 41:55
  Speaker 2: we take him as a dog. So definitely something to
• 41:57
  Speaker 2: be weary of. But another game one Thursday. If I
• 42:00
  Speaker 2: come in here and I have more confidence that it
• 42:03
  Speaker 2: just means I know that there's other pro groups coming
• 42:05
  Speaker 2: in on this Pittsburgh team with me, But right now
• 42:08
  Speaker 2: it feels like it's just me on Pittsburgh. So a
• 42:10
  Speaker 2: little scary.
• 42:12
  Speaker 1: All right, Well, this one won't be in the contest
• 42:14
  Speaker 1: as of yet. Right now, our five contest games, I'll
• 42:16
  Speaker 1: repeat Jags, Tennessee, Brown's, Bengals, New Orleans, Atlanta, Arizona. We
• 42:24
  Speaker 1: talked about this one on Sunday too. We just decided
• 42:27
  Speaker 1: we were taking a little bit, tiny, little little emy
• 42:31
  Speaker 1: weenie taste of Arizona at plus two and a half.
• 42:35
  Speaker 1: If news came out that Kyler was going to come back.
• 42:37
  Speaker 1: He's been practicing in the past couple of weeks. They
• 42:39
  Speaker 1: played Clayton Tune last week. I believe Kyler is playing
• 42:43
  Speaker 1: on Sunday and this lion has now moved to one
• 42:47
  Speaker 1: and a half. Other than the fact I wanted to
• 42:49
  Speaker 1: get the edge at the two and a half, I'm
• 42:52
  Speaker 1: really and I barely bet it like half a unit,
• 42:55
  Speaker 1: and I put it in the app actually network app.
• 42:57
  Speaker 1: I really have a strong opinion on this game, Like
• 42:59
  Speaker 1: to me, I wouldn't put it in the contest.
• 43:03
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm cool keeping it moving, like I'm with you,
• 43:06
  Speaker 2: Like I only got probably like a thousand bucks down.
• 43:08
  Speaker 2: It was freaking Sunday night, like the books aren't taking
• 43:10
  Speaker 2: much anyway, and we kind of made a bet just
• 43:13
  Speaker 2: hoping that it would be Kyler and we would get
• 43:14
  Speaker 2: good value value on the line movement. No, it's great.
• 43:17
  Speaker 2: It's gone from two and a half down to one now,
• 43:19
  Speaker 2: like yeah, that feels great, but it's it's for pennies.
• 43:22
  Speaker 2: Like I'm not getting anything really out of this one.
• 43:24
  Speaker 2: So I'm with you, chat, I got no interest to
• 43:27
  Speaker 2: really betting this game.
• 43:28
  Speaker 1: Weird because I got down five times.
• 43:31
  Speaker 2: You must know a guy.
• 43:32
  Speaker 1: I know a guy Detroit at Los Angeles Chargers. We
• 43:37
  Speaker 1: talked about this one on Sunday night too. You bet
• 43:39
  Speaker 1: it immediately at minus one lions. You said you're back
• 43:44
  Speaker 1: in the public road fave, and you said sometimes public
• 43:47
  Speaker 1: wins super Chalky, is there a number at which you
• 43:52
  Speaker 1: would not bet the Lions? Like to you, you still
• 43:59
  Speaker 1: like the note? You still like the bet.
• 44:01
  Speaker 2: Yeah, Like the Chargers look broken and the Lions look
• 44:04
  Speaker 2: like one of the class of the NFC. Like, uh,
• 44:07
  Speaker 2: you know, they've had some brutal injuries. And I just
• 44:12
  Speaker 2: just before he came on the guy I really trust
• 44:14
  Speaker 2: when they're best beat writers and all Detroit said this
• 44:17
  Speaker 2: is the healthiest this team's been all season. Like, I
• 44:20
  Speaker 2: take that as a big deal, Like a guy that's
• 44:22
  Speaker 2: locked into this team, that means Montgomery's coming back. I
• 44:25
  Speaker 2: don't know Montgommer's coming back. With this beat writer saying
• 44:27
  Speaker 2: that that, I'm assuming it means Montgomery's coming back, which
• 44:30
  Speaker 2: if you look at the numbers this year, he's one
• 44:32
  Speaker 2: of the best red zone running backs in all football.
• 44:34
  Speaker 2: And that's a big deal to Detroit, a team that
• 44:38
  Speaker 2: you know, not that that's their bread and butter, but
• 44:42
  Speaker 2: they're a team that scores like they're a team that
• 44:43
  Speaker 2: really needs to put up points. And their defense has
• 44:45
  Speaker 2: been better and they have made strides and you know,
• 44:49
  Speaker 2: we saw it with that Charters team they lost Williams,
• 44:53
  Speaker 2: they lost Palmer so two and really important receivers to Herbert.
• 44:58
  Speaker 2: So now that means all the focuses shifted to Keenan Allen.
• 45:01
  Speaker 2: So defenses are doubling Keenan Allen. They could not be
• 45:04
  Speaker 2: more happy to leave that rookie. What's the name Quinton Johnson,
• 45:07
  Speaker 2: the rookie receiver for the Chargers. I mean, that's a gift.
• 45:11
  Speaker 2: You can put that guy on one on one coverage
• 45:12
  Speaker 2: without a safety over top all game because he is bad.
• 45:15
  Speaker 2: He's bad at running routes, he's bad at body of control,
• 45:18
  Speaker 2: he's bad at hand placement. Total whift by the Chargers
• 45:22
  Speaker 2: in a draft with wide receivers that really felt like
• 45:23
  Speaker 2: you really couldn't miss. There's a lot of good talent
• 45:26
  Speaker 2: in this draft class. They totally missed on this kid.
• 45:29
  Speaker 2: So I mean, I'm looking at the app right now.
• 45:34
  Speaker 2: It's like the money, the tickets or something like that
• 45:38
  Speaker 2: is on Detroit. So if it stays that way, me
• 45:43
  Speaker 2: and Chad having this in our contest is about zero
• 45:45
  Speaker 2: percent chance. But I bet at the one and a half.
• 45:48
  Speaker 2: I bet the one. I bet the two when he
• 45:51
  Speaker 2: got to two. Now that it's at two and a half,
• 45:53
  Speaker 2: I've kind of stopped, so maybe if this gets a
• 45:56
  Speaker 2: three and a half, I'll do a Chad Middleman play
• 45:59
  Speaker 2: and try to hit that middle But how do I
• 46:02
  Speaker 2: not join the public here? The Lions just feel like
• 46:04
  Speaker 2: such a better team, and I don't see them sleepwalking
• 46:09
  Speaker 2: this game. I mean, I know they're coming off a bye,
• 46:11
  Speaker 2: but like, how do you not get fired up for
• 46:13
  Speaker 2: this game? In La? Yeah, it's off one shad.
• 46:17
  Speaker 1: But what you just said is interesting to me because
• 46:20
  Speaker 1: and by the way, this number is all over the board,
• 46:23
  Speaker 1: two and a half, two and a half, one and
• 46:25
  Speaker 1: a half, one and a half, Like it's it's everywhere
• 46:29
  Speaker 1: right now, what you just said is interesting. The Lions
• 46:34
  Speaker 1: look like the one of the class of the NFC,
• 46:36
  Speaker 1: and the Chargers look broken. All the money is coming
• 46:39
  Speaker 1: in the Lions, Isn't that when we would normally bet
• 46:41
  Speaker 1: the Chargers.
• 46:44
  Speaker 2: It is if they had a true home field. That's like,
• 46:46
  Speaker 2: that's what breaks the rule here. It's not like this
• 46:49
  Speaker 2: is Lambeau or this is Dallas or Philadelphia. Like it's
• 46:54
  Speaker 2: not a real home dog. Their whole lives are on
• 46:58
  Speaker 2: the road, Like even when they're at home. You know,
• 47:02
  Speaker 2: do we really think the diehard Lions fans aren't going
• 47:05
  Speaker 2: to show up more than the Chargers fans of this game.
• 47:07
  Speaker 2: Of course we do. So you're right though, normal spot,
• 47:12
  Speaker 2: I'm almost always on the Chargers here, so that's the
• 47:15
  Speaker 2: only reason I wouldn't be in our contest come Sunday
• 47:17
  Speaker 2: if this is the same splits, which is ninety ninety.
• 47:21
  Speaker 2: I mean, Evan tells us too, You'll tell us Sunday
• 47:23
  Speaker 2: morning what the splits are. Like, I'm out, Like, no
• 47:25
  Speaker 2: way would this one be in the contest. But if
• 47:28
  Speaker 2: we get some hopefully professional money someone to come in
• 47:30
  Speaker 2: on the other side and come in on the Chargers team,
• 47:32
  Speaker 2: I'd feel much better if this was a seventy seventy
• 47:35
  Speaker 2: split rather than a ninety ninety split, which is just insane.
• 47:38
  Speaker 1: Yeah, it's tough. It's tough, all right. The next game,
• 47:43
  Speaker 1: the New York Giants at the Dallas Cowboys. Our guy
• 47:48
  Speaker 1: Tommy DeVito has been named a full time starter for
• 47:53
  Speaker 1: the rest of the year for the New York Giants.
• 47:55
  Speaker 1: That is tragic, like there's sometimes you just feel bad,
• 47:58
  Speaker 1: like it's basically the truth is, every coach, every player
• 48:04
  Speaker 1: has a limited window in which to experience being in
• 48:07
  Speaker 1: the NFL. And for the Giants, their window one of
• 48:12
  Speaker 1: years of the one year of those of that window
• 48:15
  Speaker 1: is now being controlled by Tommy Davito, And that's just
• 48:20
  Speaker 1: I feel bad for them. They're sixteen and a half
• 48:22
  Speaker 1: point dogs to the Cowboys.
• 48:24
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean Jim tanned laundry Baby. Here we go,
• 48:28
  Speaker 2: Tommy DeVito. How you feeling, boys? Chad said it, we
• 48:33
  Speaker 2: usually go Dallas here. We take them as big favorites
• 48:36
  Speaker 2: against bad teams and tends to work out for us.
• 48:40
  Speaker 2: I don't in what world do they scroll on this
• 48:44
  Speaker 2: Dallas defense, especially at Dallas coming off a loss, Like
• 48:48
  Speaker 2: if they beat the Eagles and this number was this high,
• 48:51
  Speaker 2: you know, I probably could get talked into that, Like
• 48:54
  Speaker 2: I could probably get talked into the Vito like he had,
• 48:58
  Speaker 2: you know, some moments where it's like, Okay, I can
• 49:00
  Speaker 2: see why this kid made a roster against the Raiders,
• 49:04
  Speaker 2: like he that's how low the bar was. He completed
• 49:06
  Speaker 2: a couple of passes out there. Okay, this kid's got
• 49:08
  Speaker 2: some moxie. He's he doesn't it shouldn't be in the league.
• 49:13
  Speaker 2: It's like this guy is the classic definition of well,
• 49:16
  Speaker 2: I don't want to be paying a guy who's been
• 49:18
  Speaker 2: in the league for ten years, a couple extra million.
• 49:21
  Speaker 2: I rather just draft the guy and you know, see
• 49:24
  Speaker 2: what he has making my project. Maybe he's a Rock Purtier.
• 49:26
  Speaker 2: Maybe he's just gonna be on our bench. He'll be
• 49:28
  Speaker 2: out a league in three years. That's that's what this
• 49:30
  Speaker 2: kid's future was, right, he was just gonna come in,
• 49:33
  Speaker 2: get a couple of cheap checks, just filling a body
• 49:36
  Speaker 2: on the roster. Right he was behind Daniel Jones, behind
• 49:39
  Speaker 2: Tyrod Taylor. This kid was never going to see the field.
• 49:42
  Speaker 2: Now he is starting in Dallas. Just a nightmare. So
• 49:47
  Speaker 2: I won't get there because it's such a big number.
• 49:50
  Speaker 2: But if Chad came to me Sunday mornings, like we
• 49:52
  Speaker 2: got to put this in and it's under seventeen, I
• 49:55
  Speaker 2: might be able to get there because it's just a
• 49:57
  Speaker 2: horrible spot for the Giants or just walking into the
• 49:59
  Speaker 2: Hornets nest right now with this Dallas team. But just
• 50:02
  Speaker 2: an absurd, huge number. And I think we use Dallas
• 50:05
  Speaker 2: already for survivor. But like this, this is the standout
• 50:08
  Speaker 2: play of the week, Like, if you still got Dallas,
• 50:10
  Speaker 2: how do you not use them here against this kid?
• 50:12
  Speaker 1: Look, I think we're gonna have a lot of options
• 50:15
  Speaker 1: that we like on Sunday. We probably won't need to
• 50:17
  Speaker 1: get down to Dallas. One of the options which I
• 50:20
  Speaker 1: do like, Seattle a six point favorite at home, some
• 50:29
  Speaker 1: places six and a half, but you can still get
• 50:32
  Speaker 1: it at six at home against Washington. Love Seattle in
• 50:39
  Speaker 1: this spot. All the stuff that we liked about Seattle
• 50:41
  Speaker 1: against Baltimore still applies. They have a good defense, didn't
• 50:46
  Speaker 1: show it against Baltimore. They have a good quarterback, didn't
• 50:50
  Speaker 1: show it against Baltimore. But they are playing a far
• 50:53
  Speaker 1: inferior team in Washington that is sort of coming back
• 50:56
  Speaker 1: down to earth after losing Chase Young and Montes Sweat Right,
• 50:59
  Speaker 1: they had that US against the World dead cat bounce
• 51:03
  Speaker 1: against New England. They were playing the right team in
• 51:05
  Speaker 1: New England, a team that can't execute no matter what
• 51:08
  Speaker 1: the scenario. The reality is this is not New England
• 51:11
  Speaker 1: and that Washington rush d is bad on multiple levels.
• 51:15
  Speaker 1: From an advanced metrics point of view, this is how
• 51:17
  Speaker 1: Seattle will try to win the game. Shout out to
• 51:19
  Speaker 1: Brandon Anderson, who does the hot read in the podcast
• 51:23
  Speaker 1: that Joe Blant and Evan do on Sunday night. Wrapping
• 51:26
  Speaker 1: up the week, who choose a couple games that he
• 51:28
  Speaker 1: looks ahead on, and he's been smoking hot on these games.
• 51:32
  Speaker 1: He was two and er last week and Seattle is
• 51:37
  Speaker 1: one of the games that he liked. I got it
• 51:39
  Speaker 1: at six. It's moving up in some places, but I
• 51:42
  Speaker 1: do love Seattle in this spot.
• 51:45
  Speaker 2: It's line stinks. I don't get it. Why is it
• 51:48
  Speaker 2: not over seven? Fishy number, fishy line, fishy game. I
• 51:53
  Speaker 2: don't get this number. Read I was with you. I
• 51:55
  Speaker 2: want to be on Seattle, Like this is a great
• 51:57
  Speaker 2: bounce back spot for Seattle. Washington already coming off a
• 52:00
  Speaker 2: road win. They don't really need I mean, of course
• 52:02
  Speaker 2: they need this game, but they're not desperate, right, they don't.
• 52:05
  Speaker 2: They don't have that stank all week. They're feeling pretty
• 52:08
  Speaker 2: good all week. They had a win. Now they're going
• 52:10
  Speaker 2: up to Seattle. I do not get this number at all. Like,
• 52:14
  Speaker 2: Seattle is such a better team to me than Washington,
• 52:16
  Speaker 2: especially after Washington made all these trades. Be careful, people,
• 52:20
  Speaker 2: be careful on this one. I have no bets on
• 52:23
  Speaker 2: it yet. I don't know what I'm doing leaning leaning
• 52:25
  Speaker 2: towards Washington. I just I do not Yeah, I just
• 52:29
  Speaker 2: don't get this number, Like why why is this under
• 52:32
  Speaker 2: a touchdown? Like this? Seattle should roll in this game.
• 52:35
  Speaker 2: Like you just said, there's there's nothing on Washington's defense
• 52:39
  Speaker 2: that's going to give problems to Gino in this offense.
• 52:42
  Speaker 2: So you know, maybe maybe I way too much respect
• 52:46
  Speaker 2: for Eric Blentemy and like I think he should be
• 52:49
  Speaker 2: the head coach of the Washington He's just been incredible offensively.
• 52:53
  Speaker 2: What he's done with Sam Howe and this offensive Washington
• 52:56
  Speaker 2: has just been amazing. Like this guy, he's been for them.
• 53:01
  Speaker 2: Just look at what the Chiefs of the Chiefs are
• 53:03
  Speaker 2: now since he's left, like that Chiefs offense looks totally
• 53:06
  Speaker 2: lost and he's the only difference. He's like Yeah, someone said, well,
• 53:11
  Speaker 2: do you think it matters that Juju left? Did Juju
• 53:13
  Speaker 2: really change the Chiefs offense last season? No, Like he's
• 53:17
  Speaker 2: Eric is the reason they're there. Their offense is struggling
• 53:19
  Speaker 2: in the Kansas City. Like the man, maybe we gave
• 53:23
  Speaker 2: too much credit day to Reid and that's why he left, right,
• 53:25
  Speaker 2: he wasn't getting the head coaching jobs. He said, forget it,
• 53:28
  Speaker 2: I'm leaving. I'm going somewhere. That's just a train wreck
• 53:30
  Speaker 2: that I'll prove to everyone that I am an offensive
• 53:33
  Speaker 2: genius and I can't doubt him like he's just he's
• 53:37
  Speaker 2: The way he's coaching now has just been amazing. So
• 53:40
  Speaker 2: I'm right there with you, Chad. I don't get this number.
• 53:43
  Speaker 2: Why Seattle is so low, feels like it's great value
• 53:46
  Speaker 2: in Seattle. I'm just I'm just gonna stay away from it.
• 53:48
  Speaker 2: There's something fishy about this line.
• 53:50
  Speaker 1: Teams to lose by twenty points or more the previous
• 53:53
  Speaker 1: week facing a team that didn't lose by twenty points
• 53:57
  Speaker 1: or more, they are sixty percent against the spread since
• 54:02
  Speaker 1: twenty twenty in Week ten. That includes the Giants, the Cardinals,
• 54:07
  Speaker 1: and Seattle. So in theory, two out of those three
• 54:10
  Speaker 1: teams should cover. And I think, to me, Seattle in
• 54:15
  Speaker 1: Arizona feel like the right sides to cover. So I
• 54:23
  Speaker 1: still like it.
• 54:23
  Speaker 2: I know you don't know if I told you. Ninety
• 54:25
  Speaker 2: percent of the handle is on Sincere on Seattle, and
• 54:28
  Speaker 2: seventy percent of the tickets is on Seattle, and the
• 54:32
  Speaker 2: book is still showing six. It's just weird. It's a weird,
• 54:35
  Speaker 2: weird number. I know it's early in the week, but
• 54:37
  Speaker 2: I just it's only something. Something's funny about that line.
• 54:40
  Speaker 1: Right, But it's no different than the Lions all all
• 54:45
  Speaker 1: the tickets, right, Yeah, it's still yeah.
• 54:47
  Speaker 2: I don't feel great with the Lions either. It's just
• 54:49
  Speaker 2: I got these books. They lay traps. We talk all
• 54:51
  Speaker 2: the time, and this is this is definitely one of
• 54:53
  Speaker 2: those weird numbers.
• 54:55
  Speaker 1: Yeah, but Simon, you know I don't have nuances in
• 54:58
  Speaker 1: my feelings. I've I feel sick or I feel amazing.
• 55:02
  Speaker 1: Right now on Seattle against Washington, I feel amazing. Simon.
• 55:08
  Speaker 1: Can you name the fastest growing ticketing app in the
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  Speaker 1: United States?
• 55:12
  Speaker 2: Game Time?
• 55:13
  Speaker 1: That's right, our sponsor, game Time. I love game Time
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  Speaker 1: I can see it right now. I'm opening game Time.
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  Speaker 1: coach taking a team and turning it around. Are you
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• 56:09
  Speaker 1: we got two more games, the Jets and Raiders right now.
• 56:14
  Speaker 1: Obviously the Jets coming off that terrible, terrible loss. This
• 56:17
  Speaker 1: game has moved from two and a half to one
• 56:20
  Speaker 1: and a half. No opinion on this. Can't find a
• 56:26
  Speaker 1: way to bet it. That makes me feel comfortable?
• 56:27
  Speaker 2: What you love the Jets here? How do you not
• 56:31
  Speaker 2: love the Jets here? I'm praying this move to them
• 56:33
  Speaker 2: being a dog. That would be incredible Like this, This
• 56:37
  Speaker 2: rookie QB getting all the love right now for the Raiders.
• 56:41
  Speaker 2: And you know, people are feeling good. They had the
• 56:43
  Speaker 2: bounce back game, they won big. Antonio Pierce gave some
• 56:47
  Speaker 2: amazing speech. The boys love playing for him. Everyone's feeling good.
• 56:51
  Speaker 2: Devonte Adams has one catch. He doesn't care. He's happy,
• 56:54
  Speaker 2: right they're winning. Yeah, gotta god, gotta bet the Jets here.
• 56:59
  Speaker 2: I mean these are Can.
• 57:02
  Speaker 1: We at least wait and see if they get to
• 57:03
  Speaker 1: a dog?
• 57:05
  Speaker 2: Yeah, you can. I'm gonna I'm gonna take the one
• 57:07
  Speaker 2: and a half here, but I'm hoping it gets to
• 57:09
  Speaker 2: a dog. But no total overreaction by the public. Yes,
• 57:15
  Speaker 2: Zach Wilson is terrible. Me and Chad hate betting on him.
• 57:18
  Speaker 2: We hate watching him. We hate the experience as it is.
• 57:21
  Speaker 2: But you know, we're playing the numbers here. The Jets
• 57:26
  Speaker 2: are a better team. The bet the Jets have better coaching.
• 57:30
  Speaker 2: The Jets have, you know, a defense that going up
• 57:34
  Speaker 2: against this kid, they should get a bunch of turnovers.
• 57:38
  Speaker 2: Like this feels like a good time to back the
• 57:40
  Speaker 2: Jets team. So it feels good looking at the splits
• 57:43
  Speaker 2: here again, another game where the public is all over
• 57:46
  Speaker 2: one side. And you know, me and Chad we don't
• 57:51
  Speaker 2: blindly fade the public, right we went to and oh
• 57:52
  Speaker 2: last week rounding to the public, we had or three
• 57:54
  Speaker 2: and oh, I guess the Chiefs, the Eagles, and the Bengals,
• 57:56
  Speaker 2: all of them were the most bet teams. That's not
• 58:00
  Speaker 2: the norm for us. That's not somewhere I want to
• 58:02
  Speaker 2: be either. But if the if the numbers line upright
• 58:04
  Speaker 2: and we're getting value on the one side, we don't
• 58:06
  Speaker 2: really care what the public is doing. This is one
• 58:09
  Speaker 2: where the public is totally overreacting, right. They're all pissed off.
• 58:13
  Speaker 2: We said that the Jets are a public dog last night,
• 58:15
  Speaker 2: so that means everyone of the Grandmam they lost on
• 58:18
  Speaker 2: the Jets last night. They're mad. They're coming on the Raiders.
• 58:22
  Speaker 2: This is another primetime game. Man who knows who knows?
• 58:28
  Speaker 2: Comes Sunday. If I convinced, try to put this one in.
• 58:30
  Speaker 2: But because Sunday nights have been good to us, we've
• 58:33
  Speaker 2: had a nice run with these Sunday games. If the
• 58:37
  Speaker 2: Jets are a dog comes Sunday, this will be in.
• 58:41
  Speaker 2: Like I'm telling you people, this will be in. If
• 58:42
  Speaker 2: the Jets are a dog. I can't pass on that value.
• 58:44
  Speaker 2: But as you sit here right now, don't worry not
• 58:48
  Speaker 2: making Simon says, not doing any of that for you people.
• 58:50
  Speaker 2: It's just just letting you know I love the Jets.
• 58:53
  Speaker 2: In the spot this week.
• 58:54
  Speaker 1: It's going to be Thursday afternoon and me and Matt
• 58:57
  Speaker 1: Mitchell are going to be in fucking Copenhagen, and I'm
• 59:00
  Speaker 1: going to be have to to be yelling big balls
• 59:04
  Speaker 1: bet of the week in our Danish studio, and I'm
• 59:07
  Speaker 1: gonna have all these people looking at me like what
• 59:09
  Speaker 1: the fuck is wrong with that guy? While I'm yelling
• 59:12
  Speaker 1: big balls bet of the week about the New York
• 59:14
  Speaker 1: goddamn Jets. Then I'm going to get off a plan
• 59:16
  Speaker 1: on Saturday night at nine thirty in New York's at
• 59:19
  Speaker 1: JFK and have to take a car to the two
• 59:22
  Speaker 1: hours home and then sleep off my jet lag and
• 59:26
  Speaker 1: then have to stay up to watch the goddamn fucking
• 59:29
  Speaker 1: Jets against the Raiders.
• 59:30
  Speaker 2: What a good life. I'm jealous. I want your life, Jed.
• 59:37
  Speaker 1: It's a pretty good life. The Broncos are seven and
• 59:41
  Speaker 1: a half point dogs to the Bills. I bet this
• 59:43
  Speaker 1: at seven and a half on the Broncos. Of course
• 59:46
  Speaker 1: she does like what am I missing here?
• 59:50
  Speaker 2: I don't know? Makes me want to take the Bills?
• 59:52
  Speaker 2: What is this line? Why are the Bills getting seven
• 59:54
  Speaker 2: and a half? Like this is last year? What is happening?
• 59:57
  Speaker 2: Are the books fucking with us? It was the same
• 59:59
  Speaker 2: thing in that Bengals game. It's like it makes no sense. Yeah,
• 1:00:02
  Speaker 2: who were the Bills to be two and a half
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 2: against the Bengals in that game? That was such a
• 1:00:06
  Speaker 2: bizarre line, And it feels the same here where It's like,
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 2: I told you I wanted to fade the Broncos so
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 2: bad last week after they beat the Chiefs and they'd
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 2: won their Super Bowl right first time they'd beat them
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 2: in I don't even know what it was. They'd lost
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 2: like sixteen times. Yeah, they got lucky. They had a
• 1:00:22
  Speaker 2: bye week, you know. Now they're on the road even
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 2: more extended rest playing against the Bills. I'll do the
• 1:00:30
  Speaker 2: coward method and I'll just take Bills first.
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 4: Half Simon Hunter, professional coward and be like.
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 2: You know what long layoff for Denver after a big win.
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 2: They'll come out slow. They'll come out sluggish against the
• 1:00:42
  Speaker 2: Bills team that I expect to come out hungry and desperate.
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 2: But the Bills don't got the dogs on defense. That's
• 1:00:48
  Speaker 2: why I don't get this number, Like they don't got Yeah,
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 2: they don't got the guys I mixed up. So I'm
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 2: not going to fault Chad for jumping right in on
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 2: the seven and a half, Like I feel like I
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 2: want to do it too. I got no more on
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 2: this game right now, but I'm leaning towards just taking
• 1:01:02
  Speaker 2: the Bills first half and just being done with this one,
• 1:01:04
  Speaker 2: because seven and a half. Everything in my body screaming
• 1:01:07
  Speaker 2: take the Broncos. But weird, weird number by the books
• 1:01:12
  Speaker 2: hanging this at seven and a half.
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 1: Guy Russell Wilson has been just good enough. And I
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 1: don't buy the they're going to come out slow theory
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 1: because that's when that's the only time they're good is
• 1:01:22
  Speaker 1: because well, just.
• 1:01:22
  Speaker 2: First drive, he's the only time he's good. They're good
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 2: on the first drive and that's it.
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 1: They're so scripted. And also Sean Payton figured out what
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 1: to do with this team, like they made a conscious
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 1: effort and improved on defense, really good coaching. It's not
• 1:01:39
  Speaker 1: just the flukey way, Like he's had another week to
• 1:01:42
  Speaker 1: build confidence, tighten up that defense, and the Bills aren't
• 1:01:45
  Speaker 1: a bit of a free for all right, two and
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 1: two since that last loss to that since that loss
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 1: of the Jags, unimpressive struggle wins against the Giants and
• 1:01:53
  Speaker 1: the Bucks.
• 1:01:55
  Speaker 2: They're even money right now to make the playoffs. Jet
• 1:01:56
  Speaker 2: that's how the books view.
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 1: That's how bad it is Yeah, like this. It's fascinating
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 1: the AFC North and the AFC East, the way things
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 1: have flipped the past couple of weeks. Right we thought
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 1: the AFC North would be the best division of football,
• 1:02:12
  Speaker 1: and the last few weeks we're seeing, you know, the
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 1: Bengals and Ravens and the Bills and the Dolphins in
• 1:02:20
  Speaker 1: the East just sort of creating a little bit. It's fascinating.
• 1:02:24
  Speaker 1: So right now games that could be in our contest,
• 1:02:28
  Speaker 1: and we're gonna talk about this more on Thursday. Jacks
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 1: plus three, Tennessee plus one and a half, Browns plus six,
• 1:02:34
  Speaker 1: Bengals minus six and a half, New Orleans minus two
• 1:02:37
  Speaker 1: and a half, Lions minus one and a half, Seattle
• 1:02:41
  Speaker 1: minus six, New York Jets minus one and a half,
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 1: Broncos plus seven and a half. Maybe as a reminder,
• 1:02:50
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