Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 402 - 11/24/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum
Transcript
- 0:0154321 All systems Go with Josh Applebaum starts now.
- 0:13Hello and welcome. To episode.
- 0:16Four O 2 of the all systems go sports betting podcast powered
- 0:21by. Rhythm, I am your.
- 0:22Host Josh. Applebaum.
- 0:28What's going on, everyone? Happy Monday.
- 0:31A new week begins, but more importantly, the final week in
- 0:33November. You.
- 0:34Know what that means? Guys right it's.
- 0:36Thanksgiving week, so the holidays here coming up.
- 0:39Get ready for your. Thanksgiving feast family.
- 0:42Football hopefully have a. Little bit of fun.
- 0:44But one of my favorite. Weeks of the year.
- 0:46I will tell you guys a few. Things right?
- 0:48Off the bat, we'll. Not be doing a pod on.
- 0:50Thursday or Friday? Thursday.
- 0:52I don't know if I told you guys. This but my in laws moved from
- 0:55San Diego, CA. To New Hampshire, so they're
- 0:58hosting their first Thanksgiving.
- 0:59We'll be helping outgoing. Up there on Thursday.
- 1:02And then on Friday. I will be driving.
- 1:05Back home to Western Mass for my 20th.
- 1:08High school reunion go and follow my.
- 1:10Buddies should. Be an interesting.
- 1:11Time and. Then my mom and dad and my
- 1:14sister. 'S family lucky enough to agree
- 1:16to do our Thanksgiving on Saturday.
- 1:18So I'll be busy with those two days.
- 1:20But reminder, you can always read the Sharp report.
- 1:22We'll talk about the. Thanksgiving Day games already
- 1:25seeing some line movement, Joe Burrow looks.
- 1:27Like he's gonna play here for the.
- 1:30Cincinnati Bengals. At one point that was Baltimore
- 1:33-10 1/2, Now it's -7. Maybe intrigued by the?
- 1:37Cowboys. They were plus 3 1/2, four and a
- 1:40half. It's down to. 3 1/2.
- 1:41And. Juice like can make.
- 1:42It down to three. And the line did.
- 1:43Move a little bit toward Green Bay at.
- 1:45Detroit for that early game, plus three down to 2 and a.
- 1:48Half, so don't worry. We'll talk about all those
- 1:49games. I.
- 1:50Just want to give you guys a lay of the land because it is
- 1:53Thanksgiving. Week A reminder I'll still write
- 1:55the sharp reports. On Thursday and Friday.
- 1:57Still have, of course, all the plays.
- 1:58Posted. On the juice.
- 2:00Reel app if you want to support the pod.
- 2:02It costs $4. And $0.99 a week. 5 bucks a week
- 2:05to get all the plays now. Looking towards today guys,
- 2:08we're going to wrap. Up NFL Week 12.
- 2:10We got a big Monday night. Football game here.
- 2:12Carolina and San Francisco. So you have a play on this one
- 2:14for you. It happens to be a Robo Jackson.
- 2:17Best bet, pick with a rhythm. Sharp, much edge.
- 2:20My buddy Dave Tooley, one of my mentors at V Sin, who I've.
- 2:23Learned a lot from. Over the years, he's with us on
- 2:25this one as well, so stay tuned. For that and then couple plays
- 2:28in college basketball. They call it feast week.
- 2:31I don't know when this became a thing.
- 2:32Feast week? Maybe it's.
- 2:34Thanksgiving, but the all you got to know is you got a lot of
- 2:36day games. A lot of.
- 2:37These tournament games, so there's.
- 2:39A big tournament called the Players Era.
- 2:41Festival in Las Vegas, NV. They got a lot of great games
- 2:45tonight. They're the most.
- 2:46Heavily backed games ranked. Teams, but I have. 2 plays a
- 2:50couple. Neutral court spots here for the
- 2:52Players Era festival and college hoops so for.
- 2:54Tonight we got NFL play and. We got 2.
- 2:57College plays. As always, let's try to get 2
- 2:59out of 3. And eek.
- 3:00Out a winning day. Now looking back toward the
- 3:03weekend, guys start off. Like a nightmare.
- 3:05O and 4 -, 4 units. In college football.
- 3:09Gators were a play that we talked.
- 3:10About on the pod. End up adding Nebraska, Kentucky
- 3:12and. Arkansas.
- 3:14All of them lost. None of them covered so
- 3:16obviously terrible. Frustrating.
- 3:17Annoying, but if you look at. Numbers that we got.
- 3:21And where the lines close, we beat the.
- 3:23Closing line on every. Play I know this is like who
- 3:25cares you lost the. Bet just, you know, shut up and
- 3:27it. Doesn't matter.
- 3:28But it goes to. It goes to.
- 3:29Show and tells. Me that.
- 3:31We're reading the market correctly and for whatever
- 3:33reason. These dogs are not barking.
- 3:35So for example, Gators. Got them plus 4 1/2.
- 3:37They close plus 3 1/2. They get rolled 30. 1:00 to
- 3:4011:00. I added.
- 3:42Nebraska plus 7 1/2. They close +7.
- 3:45They got rolled 30. 7 to 10 Kentucky I got them plus 8 1/2
- 3:49they. Closed +7.
- 3:50They lost 40. 5 to 17. Got Arkansas plus 9 1/2.
- 3:53Closed 8 1/2. Lost. 52 to 30. 7.
- 3:56So again, all those public plays again, if you.
- 3:59Look at the opponents. There with.
- 4:03Who is it? Tennessee.
- 4:05Penn State. And then Vanderbilt and.
- 4:09Going off the top. Of my head here, Texas.
- 4:11All were getting like 70% of bets line was.
- 4:13Going away from them. Didn't matter, they rolled and
- 4:15covered. So that was a.
- 4:16Frustrating Saturday. But a nice NFL.
- 4:20Sunday 3 and 1 + 1 point. 4/2 units.
- 4:23Had the Bears. On the money line coming through
- 4:25for. The team non conference.
- 4:27Favorite both off. A win.
- 4:29Take the favorite you. Know some books close at -3.
- 4:32And they won by three. And they made me.
- 4:34Sweat their. Late cuz they're up two scores
- 4:35and give up. A score late to make it a
- 4:37three-point game, but. Important thing there is.
- 4:39Money lining short. Favorites, if you even.
- 4:41If you got a. 2 1/2. You would have you would have
- 4:43covered that, but even if it was at 3, you would.
- 4:46You won your money line, so the bears came through.
- 4:48With a Really. Sharp smart signal on the money
- 4:50line. From Rhythm Colts Plus. 3 1/2
- 4:53got a little nervous cuz that line ticked.
- 4:55Back up to like. 4/4 and 1/2. In favor of the Chiefs, but
- 4:59Colts end up losing by. 3IN overtime probably should have
- 5:01won that. Game, but they covered.
- 5:03That number and again. Rhythm had that closer to a two
- 5:05point game. The greatest?
- 5:07Play. And again, this is like.
- 5:09Here we go again with the Dallas Cowboys.
- 5:11I feel like whenever I play them they always let me down.
- 5:13When I bet against. Them they do well.
- 5:16And add the Cowboys plus 3 1/2. This is a play that we talked
- 5:18about on Friday's pod and I was like.
- 5:21Hey. You know the Lions.
- 5:22Just moving toward the boys, you know, weed and.
- 5:24Boys, they open at one point. I believe getting 4 1/2.
- 5:27Even some shops are closer to like maybe 5 or 6.
- 5:30Immediately got down to 4 1/2, then 3 1/2, then three and.
- 5:33All the juice was actually leaning down toward.
- 5:35Two and a. Half so late money was.
- 5:36Really breaking toward Dallas. Dallas gets down. 21 to nothing.
- 5:40So I'm like, here we go. Again, what a joke.
- 5:43But before you're able to throw dirt on the grave.
- 5:45Of weed em boys. Jerry Jones got.
- 5:48The last laugh, because the Cowboys, I tell you what, guys,
- 5:50my heart. Was racing.
- 5:52If you were watching that game when they had the punt.
- 5:54Where the idiot guy forgot the. Name his name.
- 5:58But the punt returner? For the Eagles, he was at the 1
- 6:01yard line. He should have just let the
- 6:02ball. Go into the end zone instead.
- 6:03He wants. To be a hero.
- 6:05Runs it out and. There was a great play by the
- 6:07Dallas guy who I think it was an undrafted.
- 6:10Free agent, but he. Was a gunner.
- 6:11And he got crushed at the beginning, fell.
- 6:13On the ground, got crushed again, fell on the ground.
- 6:15But didn't give up on the play, ran all the way down the field.
- 6:18Caused the fumble pop. The kick returner got the ball
- 6:21back. Cowboys were.
- 6:22Stupid because they they should have just taken the points.
- 6:25And instead they went for it on 4th down.
- 6:26Didn't get. It but anyway.
- 6:27They end up. Winning the game 24 to 21.
- 6:29So the boys coming back from 21? Nothing.
- 6:32Coming up massive for the team, so that was great to see.
- 6:35And got CLV. Because it closed 3. 3 1/2 was.
- 6:38The number we got. Only loser was.
- 6:40The Saints again. Letting us down there.
- 6:42Dog to fave line move. But if you did play the Saints.
- 6:46Under win total under 5 1/2. I guess that.
- 6:48Was a good thing, but. Again.
- 6:50Saturday, I don't even. To me when you beat closing
- 6:54lines. And the public gets the last
- 6:55laugh. Like in those.
- 6:56Saturday games in college? I don't even really.
- 6:59Again it. Kills me to go on 4 but I'm.
- 7:01Like hey, I did. My part just they.
- 7:02Didn't show up. For us now if.
- 7:05I were to get. You know Gators plus 4 1/2 and
- 7:07they. Closed at Plus.
- 7:08Six and then got blown out. I'd really be.
- 7:10Mad at myself but. Diagnosed the plays correctly,
- 7:13just didn't come through. But a great.
- 7:15Sunday in the NFL. 3 and 1 + 1 four 1.42 units, so that was
- 7:19nice to. See, and I believe, I believe, I
- 7:22don't want to jinx it, but ten and two.
- 7:24Our last twelve NFL. Plays had a couple weeks that
- 7:27have been pretty good back to. Back anyway guys, let's.
- 7:30Waste no more time. Because it is a big Monday, we.
- 7:32Got Monday Night Football. We got a ton of college hoops,
- 7:34so let's get after it. Now, 8:15 PM Eastern Time, you
- 7:38got the Carolina Panthers. At the San Francisco. 40.
- 7:41Niners. Now setting the table.
- 7:42For. This one, the Panthers come in
- 7:44six. And five on the year, remember,
- 7:45they came through. Bigley for the team last week.
- 7:48They're plus 3 1/2 they won out right at the Falcons. 30 to 20.
- 7:51Seven in overtime. Meanwhile, the 40.
- 7:53Niners 7 and 4. You know, Mac Jones back on the
- 7:56bench, Brock Purdy's back and beat up on the Cardinals. 41 to.
- 7:5922 last week, easily covered as a three.
- 8:01And a half point Rd. favorite. So what do we see across the
- 8:04market here? Well, this game open San Fran
- 8:06around a 6 1/2 point home. Favorite and early money?
- 8:10Certainly laid it with. San Fran.
- 8:12Because San. Fran and Even.
- 8:13Some books I saw open minus 6/6. 6 1/2 You know, some books were
- 8:167. So it got steamed all the.
- 8:18Way up to -7 1/2. With San Fran and I'm thinking
- 8:21to myself. OK, got to respect the line
- 8:23move. Toward the 49ers.
- 8:25But does. It fly through the seven half
- 8:26get up to 8. Or is there some sort of
- 8:28inflated? Resistance on Carolina.
- 8:31Where it's. Maybe coming back down and
- 8:32that's what we're seeing. Across the board because.
- 8:35Now that it's gotten up to. SAN Fran -7.
- 8:37And a half if you look. At the juice, it's all juiced.
- 8:39Back toward Carolina plus 7 1/2. -115 -, 120 So it tells me some
- 8:45resistance and inflated. Dog buyback on Carolina, now the
- 8:49splits. Are kind of confusing.
- 8:51Because they look really good at DraftKings.
- 8:53Carolina's only getting. 48% of spread.
- 8:55Bets but 60. Percent of spread dollars.
- 8:58However, circa. Is showing 76.
- 9:00Percent of spread bets 92% of spread dollars on the 40.
- 9:03Niners. So again, the line move to the
- 9:06Niners. Vegas has got a good split, but
- 9:08think of it this way, Pros got. -6 -. 6 1/2 you know San.
- 9:12Fran wins by 7. They win.
- 9:14You lay a late. 7 1/2 you lose. So my angle here is I'm.
- 9:18Going to take the inflated. Primetime Dog, Carolina and.
- 9:21I'll give you more reasons. Why here in a?
- 9:222nd But let's just. Look at our system matches.
- 9:25Carolina is a primetime dog. Those PT dogs are. 19 and 17
- 9:29ATS. This year, 53.
- 9:30Percent. They're one. 60 and 1:43.
- 9:33ATS 53%. Almost a 2% ROI since 2020, but
- 9:38here's. Where it gets a little better.
- 9:40If you only isolate the prime time dogs getting 6 1/2 or more
- 9:43so your bigger prime time dogs, they're seven and five against
- 9:46the spread. This year, 58.
- 9:47Percent they're. 60 and 43. Against the spread. 58.
- 9:50Percent 12% ROI since 2020. Now if you isolate, just big.
- 9:55Dogs in general. Plus 7 1/2 or more.
- 9:58They're 23. And 17 against.
- 9:59The spread this year 58. Percent, 10% ROI.
- 10:03And if you go all the way back since 2004, that's as far as my.
- 10:06Database will go back. Big Dog 7.
- 10:09And F or more on Monday. Night.
- 10:11Monday Football. Spot Big Dog.
- 10:13They're 49 and 36. Against the spread 58%. 11% ROI.
- 10:18Then you get into. Some angles here with.
- 10:21First off, Bryce Young. 19 and 16 against.
- 10:24The Spread 54. Percent, 4% ROI.
- 10:26As a dog. In his career.
- 10:28He's 8 and. Five against the spread 62%.
- 10:30Nearly a 20% ROI as a dog getting six or more Carolina, by
- 10:35the way. 7:00 and 3:00. Excuse me against the spread
- 10:38this year as. A dog.
- 10:39Covering 70% of the time. Then you dig into Shanahan.
- 10:42Now Shanahan. 'S got some great numbers as a
- 10:46dog. But as a favorite?
- 10:47Only 42 and 47. Against the spread 47%.
- 10:51He's only 20 and 27. ATS 43% as a home favorite.
- 10:56He's only 17 and 20. Four against the spread 42%.
- 10:59As a favorite. Laying six or more.
- 11:01And Brock Purdy, 8:00 and 11:00. Against the spread. 42%.
- 11:05Link six or more. So Shanahan in this spot as a
- 11:08favorite, as a home favorite, as a big favorite of 6 or.
- 11:11More and. Purdy as a favorite.
- 11:12Of six or more well below 500. Flip it the other way.
- 11:15Caroline in the spot. Obviously with Bryce Young has
- 11:18done pretty well now if you. Tell me you want to tease down.
- 11:21San Fran. I'm not going to argue with you.
- 11:237 1/2. Down to 1 and. 1/2 you.
- 11:25Go through the three and the seven.
- 11:26So. That could make some sense.
- 11:28But the other angles? To me, in terms of.
- 11:30The side. Let's go to Rhythm.
- 11:32Rhythm has 2. 3 plays on Carolina.
- 11:35Two of which are a green. Star recommended play so.
- 11:37The first one is Carolina plus Five Point. 3.
- 11:40Second one is Carolina plus 4.1. Third one is Carolina.
- 11:44Plus 5.5. So even if you take the 5 1/2.
- 11:47And you know. Round up 6.
- 11:49Point game rhythm saying. Basically.
- 11:51Basically it should be. Between a.
- 11:52Four and a six point game you can get a 7 1/2, so there's some
- 11:56good value there. I also like the fact that when I
- 11:58popped open juice rail. I noticed one of the two.
- 12:02Robo Jackson best bet? Picks the AI generated.
- 12:04Plays. There's 2 plays that come out
- 12:06every day at noon. One of them.
- 12:09Is on Carolina +7. And a half so the AI.
- 12:11Analytics from Juice Reel. Also like.
- 12:14Caroline and the points. And I mentioned my buddy Dave
- 12:16Tooley. He's you can follow.
- 12:18Him on Twitter. At View from Vegas, he's just
- 12:20an. Awesome dude.
- 12:22I read him back when he wrote for ESPNI, remember?
- 12:25Reading him in like 2011. When I first started.
- 12:27Working in the sports betting industry, but then.
- 12:30Joined V sin in 2019 I met. Dave a few times at the
- 12:33Superbook. Just an.
- 12:34Awesome, nice, cool. Sharp guy, he had a write.
- 12:37Up in vsin.com, where he. Liked Carolina plus the.
- 12:40Points as well, so. I'm taking Panthers plus. 7 1/2.
- 12:45Now shop round, a lot of books are juice Panthers plus.
- 12:48Seven F - 1. 15 - 1. 20 I found -112 at DraftKings, so I did
- 12:53take the +7. And 1/2 with.
- 12:55Carolina, the total. I'm not touching.
- 12:57Because I got to respect that it rose. 45 1/2 all the way up to
- 13:0149 1/2 so. A lot of money came in on the.
- 13:03Over and the splits. Look good on the.
- 13:05Over 45% bets, 57% dollars at. DK, 46%.
- 13:11Bets 88% dollars at Circa. But what I am worried about is
- 13:14it's moved so much to the over. Is there actually value to to
- 13:17play? The under here.
- 13:19Because rhythm has this. Closer to a 40.
- 13:20Seven point game. Primetime unders are 20. 3 and
- 13:2316 this year 59. Percent.
- 13:25They're 58% since 2019. If you look at these.
- 13:29High totals of 47 half or. More in a prime time game.
- 13:32There's 62% this year. 59% since 2017.
- 13:36Monday Night Football Unders 50. 7% this year. 59%.
- 13:41Since 20/19 and. When a Monday Night Football.
- 13:43Total is 49 or more the under. Is 62%.
- 13:47Since 2019. So again.
- 13:49If the pros got over 40. 5 1/2. 4647. 48 even let's say it lands
- 13:5549, they all win. You lose because you got the
- 13:58worst of it. So I never want to get the worst
- 14:00of it. Getting the over would be the
- 14:01worst of it. Right now, 49 1/2.
- 14:04If you tell me you want to play. The over because it's been
- 14:06consistently. Going up.
- 14:07I'm going to. Respect that.
- 14:09If you tell me you want to go the other way, sell high on a
- 14:12big. Move and take an.
- 14:13Inflated under I also. Can support that so anytime I
- 14:16can. Make a case for both sides I.
- 14:18Think the best thing to do is lay off.
- 14:19So no play for me on the total, but I am going.
- 14:22Panthers. Plus 7 1/2.
- 14:24Let's see if they can. Bark for us.
- 14:25Keep it close. Can you lose by 7 or less?
- 14:28Fingers crossed now. Over to the college basketball
- 14:31site. You guys might have some
- 14:33afternoon action going on right now.
- 14:35But I have a couple plays. That I'm excited to sweat
- 14:37tonight so. Plays here are both the players
- 14:42era. Festival in Las Vegas and
- 14:45they're both on, I believe on. Tru TV.
- 14:48So if you remember Tru TV, that's.
- 14:49Like, you know, March Madness, you got to figure out what
- 14:52channel Truth Truth TV is on. So you got to you got to find
- 14:55that one again. But anyway.
- 14:56First one that. Jumped out to me. 8.
- 14:58O clock game, Auburn. Tigers, Oregon Ducks.
- 15:02Now Auburn comes in. 4:00 and 1:00.
- 15:03On the year just beat up on. Jacksonville, Jackson State. 112
- 15:07to 60. 6 They're O and. 6 on the year.
- 15:10Though, so probably took. Care of business as you should
- 15:12have. Oregon comes in.
- 15:13Four and O. The big thing though, is.
- 15:16Auburn is ranked 21st. Oregon is unranked.
- 15:19So what? Have we seen across the market?
- 15:20Will this game open? Auburn minus. 4 1/2. -4.
- 15:25And the public says give me the Tigers all day because Auburn is
- 15:28getting. 73% of spread. Bets in a heavily.
- 15:31Bet primetime game. So ton of love.
- 15:34Laying it. With Auburn, however.
- 15:36Auburn open -4 1/2 - 4. You would think.
- 15:39Getting all the support, they'd be up to 5 or 6.
- 15:42No, the lines gone down. To 3 1/2.
- 15:45So this reminds me a lot if you remember.
- 15:46Last week, Michigan State in the points.
- 15:48Against Kentucky, what do we get them?
- 15:503 1/2 they close 2. And 1/2 unpopular.
- 15:53Heavily back game. Sharp reverse line move.
- 15:56Same sort of thing here with Oregon.
- 15:57Public is all over. Auburn, but the lines.
- 15:59Dropping toward Oregon. At DraftKings, only 27% of bets,
- 16:03but 56% of dollars. Are on Oregon so great low bets.
- 16:08Higher dollars, reverse line move, Sharp play in primetime
- 16:11with Oregon unranked versus ranked.
- 16:14I can buy low just like we. Do on.
- 16:16Ranked First. Ranked.
- 16:17Ranked. In college football.
- 16:19On ranked first ranked is. 31 and 20.
- 16:21Two this year ATS 58% I'm. Going to bank on Oregon's
- 16:25defensive. Efficiency hopefully showing up.
- 16:27The rank 29th in the country versus 40th.
- 16:30For Auburn, rhythm has. Oregon plus 3.1.
- 16:35So not a huge edge off of 3. And a half, but hey, Lance lands
- 16:38on three. We cover 3 1/2.
- 16:40Rhythm is also showing a. Or, sorry, Juice Reel.
- 16:43Is showing a 10% sharp mush edge.
- 16:46In favor of. Oregon as well.
- 16:48And I know. There is an injury.
- 16:51I believe it's Keyshawn Hall. He's their leading scorer.
- 16:56He's questionable. So I don't know if he's playing
- 16:58or not. I obviously would like him not.
- 17:00To play, but maybe that's part of the.
- 17:03Reason why you're seeing this drop toward Oregon.
- 17:05Either way, everyone's playing. Auburn Lines.
- 17:07Dropping to the Ducks. So Ducks fly together.
- 17:11Let's go Oregon. I took the three.
- 17:13And 1/2 with Oregon you can get plus 3 1/2 -, 110.
- 17:16At Bet MGM. But again, shop around because a
- 17:18lot of books are plus 3 1/2. -1. 15 -, 120 and actually see one.
- 17:22Book down to three. So I'd love to see this get down
- 17:25to 3 or 2 1/2 across the board, but.
- 17:27Heavily back game, everybody on Auburn line dropping to Oregon.
- 17:31We have a sharp mush edge from Juice Reel.
- 17:33We got a rhythm. Plus 3.1.
- 17:35I'm taking the ducks in the points plus. 3 1/2.
- 17:39Now, if you like Oregon, I think you're probably.
- 17:41Like San Diego State. Now this is the.
- 17:45Nightcap, same tournament. The Players era.
- 17:47Festival in Las Vegas. But we.
- 17:49Have San Diego State playing Michigan now San Diego State
- 17:53comes in two and. One they lost to.
- 17:55Troy in double overtime. One O 8 to one O 7 their last
- 17:57game. Michigan comes in. 4 and up.
- 18:00And Michigan, they've been blowing people out.
- 18:02And they are ranked. 7th overall.
- 18:05San Diego State is unranked now. This game opened.
- 18:10Most shops were Michigan -7 -, 6 1/2.
- 18:13And the. Public is hammering Michigan
- 18:15better team undefeated, ranked. Versus unranked, you know.
- 18:19They'll easily win by, you know, 10 points or more.
- 18:22However. Even though 75% of bets are on
- 18:24Michigan at DraftKings, they're not up to 8 or 9.
- 18:27They're down to 5 1/2. So why is this line dropping
- 18:30toward? San Diego State.
- 18:33If everyone and their mother is on, the Wolverines again tells
- 18:36me smart money. Taking the dog in the points
- 18:38with San Diego State. At DraftKings, only 25% bets,
- 18:42but 54% of the spread dollars are on San Diego State, and at
- 18:46circa 71% of bets, 95% of spread dollars.
- 18:50On San Diego State. And again this.
- 18:52These games are in Vegas, circa. Based in Vegas, so maybe there's
- 18:57some hometown cook in there. Hopefully in favor of Oregon.
- 19:01As well as. As San Diego State hometown
- 19:03cooking, I mean the money that people are betting.
- 19:05At Circa in Vegas. Aligns with these splits.
- 19:09On ranked first ranked. Once again, so that is A50. 8%
- 19:13ATS system this year. Rhythm.
- 19:16Has San Diego State. Plus 4.8.
- 19:19So again, a little. Bit of an edge there if you're
- 19:21getting the five and a half. You look at.
- 19:24Juice Reel. 15% sharp mush. Edge on San Diego State.
- 19:29Actually have a second. Play.
- 19:31On. Where is it Rhythm A 4.8?
- 19:34And a four point. Two and Ken Palm has San Diego
- 19:37State. Losing by 5.
- 19:39So all of these edges are telling you to take.
- 19:42The Aztecs in the points. Now, hopefully, the Aztecs their
- 19:46three. Pointer shot can fall.
- 19:47Tonight, because they're actually. 20th in the nation.
- 19:50And shooting the. 341%. Michigan.
- 19:53They're only. Shooting 33%.
- 19:55That's 100. And 99th you.
- 19:57Always know Michigan State. Plays great.
- 19:59Defense. They ranked 10th in the country
- 20:01and forced turnovers. 258th. For Michigan.
- 20:05And maybe you're buying low. San Diego State losing Detroit
- 20:08They. Have a one.
- 20:09Day rest advantage and probably getting.
- 20:11I don't know, you know, coaches may be riding hard in the gym
- 20:15with this layoff here. What's that?
- 20:16A six day layoff versus Michigan.
- 20:18Coming off a blowout. Win, so maybe a buy low, sell
- 20:21high motivational play. But just like Oregon.
- 20:24San Diego State is very unpopular.
- 20:26And heavily back game and the lines moving in their favor.
- 20:29So I took the Aztecs plus. 5 1/2. -110 it's pretty much
- 20:32widely available everywhere. So Panthers.
- 20:36One football plus 7 1/2. Oregon Plus 3 1/2.
- 20:39San Diego State Aztecs plus 5 1/2 Let's see if we can get.
- 20:42Two out of those. Three to come through for us.
- 20:45So that about does it for episode 4 O two of the all
- 20:48systems go sports betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
- 20:51This is the part of the pod where we wrap.
- 20:52Things up and I start first by. Saying thank you.
- 20:55Thank you for listening, thank you for tuning in, thank you for
- 20:58taking the time out of. Your day.
- 20:59I know you guys. Got a lot going.
- 21:00On it's. Thanksgiving week holiday season
- 21:02is pretty much here, but you guys keep keep.
- 21:05Keep tuning in, keep listening, keep grinding.
- 21:08These sharp plays with me, so that really means a lot.
- 21:10So thank you if. You'd like to support the pod?
- 21:12Please would. You give it a. 5.
- 21:13Star Review on Spotify. Or iTunes, click the follow
- 21:17button. Recommend the pod to a friend.
- 21:18Retweet the. Pod, when I tweet it out, that
- 21:21would all be pretty awesome of you to do.
- 21:23Next, I mentioned the holiday season coming up.
- 21:26You're probably looking for a stocking stuffer or a gift for
- 21:28your uncle or your nephew or. Whoever.
- 21:30Well, why? Not get it out of the way.
- 21:32Get some some gift giving. Early by going.
- 21:35To Amazon.com. And typing in.
- 21:37The NFL sharp betting. Playbook.
- 21:39It's my new book. Very proud of it.
- 21:42I. Also have another book called
- 21:43the Everything Guide to Sports Betting.
- 21:44You can actually get. Both.
- 21:45For I think like 30. Bucks now if you.
- 21:48Combine them on Amazon and if you want to get them half.
- 21:51Off the. NFL sharp betting playbook.
- 21:53Just go to the pin tweet on my Twitter.
- 21:55Profile at Josh under score. Insights.
- 21:57Use the promo code. Cheers, 2025.
- 22:00Directly from the Triumph Books website.
- 22:01They're my publisher. Instead of 24.
- 22:03Bucks. It'll be 12 bucks and if you
- 22:06want to really make my day, if you want to give.
- 22:08It A5. Star Review on Spotify.
- 22:09That would really, really, really be awesome.
- 22:12Next have. You downloaded Rhythm and.
- 22:14Juice real yet? My two favorite sports.
- 22:15Betting apps. They help me win.
- 22:17They're going to help you win. By the way, we'll do our.
- 22:20Rhythm Rundown Live show. On Wednesday, a.
- 22:23Couple days from now. Because obviously we got
- 22:25Thanksgiving coming up here, but if you haven't.
- 22:29Downloaded Rhythm, do it now. Use promo code START 25 for 25%
- 22:33off for AI backed models and predictions for game bets.
- 22:35And player props. And then if you wanted to
- 22:39download. Juice Rail A lot of great
- 22:41features of juice rail, but first one.
- 22:43You can you. Know you can get.
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- 22:47Best bet picks. Directly from the juice.
- 22:49Rail app cost you 55, Sorry. $4.90. $0.09 a week.
- 22:54And you get every play as soon as I make it, hopefully beat
- 22:56some. Closing lines.
- 22:57I. Consider it a tip jar if you
- 22:59enjoy. The pot and the.
- 22:59Insights. They're free.
- 23:01So get those. Best bet picks for 5 bucks a
- 23:03week you also get the robo Jackson best bet picks.
- 23:06The sharp mush indicators, the arbitrage.
- 23:08Plays the shop for the best line features.
- 23:11So download rhythm. Download Juice.
- 23:12Reel give them a. Five star review.
- 23:14In the App Store and then. If you have a, if you don't have
- 23:17a live odds page, you need one. You got to be able to track the
- 23:20market, figure out what. All these.
- 23:21Games opened at. Where are they now?
- 23:24Shop for the best. Number Identify Steam.
- 23:26Live scoring, live in game. Majoring odds and obviously.
- 23:29With all day college. Basketball right now.
- 23:31You know there's a page you're going to be glued to non-stop,
- 23:34so give. Odds logic a shot.
- 23:36They're the best live odds page around.
- 23:38Go to oddslogic dot. Com slash Josh. 123 for a free 7
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- 23:46month of service also. Go download Novig Novig is a
- 23:51betting. Exchange, not.
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- 23:56- 1. 20 You'll get -1 O 8 -, 1 O 4 plus one O 2 so you can win.
- 24:01At the same rate as you would betting.
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- 24:18When you fund your. Account.
- 24:20Put in the promo. Code Josh 1/2. 3 for an extra.
- 24:2325 bucks. So that.
- 24:25About does it for episode 4 O. Two of the ASG pod on a big
- 24:28Monday. Thanksgiving week of.
- 24:30Course reminder whether I. See you at the.
- 24:32Borgata in Atlantic. City Twin River in Rhode Island
- 24:35the. Brooklyn, New Hampshire,
- 24:35Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun down in Connecticut.
- 24:38At the Encore in Boston Plain Ridge Park Casino.
- 24:40MGM, Springfield. The Nash.
- 24:42And my neck of. The woods on the border of
- 24:44Nashua, NH in. Massachusetts.
- 24:46They're out. In the desert where the true
- 24:48grinders get down. Where Billy Walter?
- 24:49Sends his number runners. Where the lowest choose possible
- 24:52is. Found at the South Point, OR.
- 24:53Sweat and sharp contrarian plays.
- 24:55Jumping in the stadium. Swimming pool when you catch a
- 24:57big ticket. At circa you're.
- 24:58Going to walk up to me, show me a.
- 25:00Bears money line a Colts. Plus the points.
- 25:04But man, show me a Cowboys. I tell you what, guys.
- 25:06When they got the. I know they didn't.
- 25:08Score. On that drive but.
- 25:08When they got that fumble back. I literally screamed out loud.
- 25:11My dog Meadow jumped up, said what?
- 25:13She was sleeping like, oh, what's going on?
- 25:15A man. Great hit with the boys.
- 25:17That that that would arguably the best sweat hit of the year.
- 25:21Cowboys in the points there. Show me a boys ticket.
- 25:24First one's on me, next one's on you.
- 25:26We'll post about the book. Sweatsharp contrarian plays all
- 25:29night long. So as always guys, whether we
- 25:33are coming off a. You know a three in one Sunday
- 25:35or. A1 in three.
- 25:36Sunday an O and. Four Saturday or a.
- 25:38Four and O Saturday. Whether we're hot, whether we're
- 25:40cold. Whether we're having a great
- 25:42week or a. Terrible week.
- 25:43A great month or an awful month? Whether?
- 25:45We're grinding and we. Just got to stick to it.
- 25:47We can't. Get down on ourselves and we're.
- 25:49Struggling like again you? Beat all these closing lines and
- 25:51the teams don't come through for you you.
- 25:53Know you can't smash? Your your hand through.
- 25:55A window you can't smash your TV you just got to just got to stay
- 25:58even keeled not get too. High or too low?
- 26:01And continue to stay disciplined.
- 26:02With our bankroll management flat.
- 26:04Betting, risking 1 unit and playing the system matches which
- 26:07as of now you might know. By now.
- 26:09Go something like this. Against the.
- 26:11Public with the house with the pros Flat bet avoid.
- 26:14Parlays and get that CLV. If we can do that, we're going
- 26:16to be successful betters long term.
- 26:18So go Panthers. Go Ducks.
- 26:21Go Aztecs. I wish.
- 26:22Everyone a great. Monday night, have an even
- 26:24better. Thanksgiving week again, we got
- 26:26a pod. Today, Tuesday and Wednesday.
- 26:28And then we won't. We will be off Thursday, Friday.
- 26:31But as always, guys. Look forward to seeing you again
- 26:34tomorrow for episode. Four O 3.
- 26:37Of the All Systems Go sports betting podcast powered by
- 26:40rhythm good luck everybody and have a great.
- 26:42Monday night.