Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 578 - 9/14/26 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

Transcript

Episode 578 - 9/14/26 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

• 0:01
  54321 All systems Go with Josh Applebaum starts now.
• 0:13
  Hello and welcome. To episode 5. 78.
• 0:17
  Of the all systems. Go sports betting podcast.
• 0:20
  Powered by. Rhythm, I am your.
• 0:22
  Host Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
• 0:31
  Happy Monday. A new week begins, guys.
• 0:33
  Another day here in the arena. And boy, we just went through
• 0:36
  our first. NFL full weekend.
• 0:39
  I think there's some good signs. Good.
• 0:40
  Takeaways Here I'll have a full recap of all of our.
• 0:43
  Plays for college and NFL and. Then we got to just.
• 0:46
  Continue to roll because. Once you get into football
• 0:48
  season, you never. Come up for.
• 0:50
  Air, you're head. Down, you're grinding.
• 0:52
  And really it's it's what I. Love.
• 0:53
  I love grinding in the sports betting arena, embracing the
• 0:56
  challenge and. It's always like, hey, you have
• 0:59
  a good day. Good.
• 0:59
  Weekend, you're trying to keep it going.
• 1:01
  If you have a tough weekend, things go.
• 1:03
  Don't go your way. You got another game, don't have
• 1:05
  to wait too. Long for it because we got.
• 1:07
  Again, full Sundays, Monday, Thursday night, Sunday night
• 1:11
  again. It's just all locked and loaded.
• 1:13
  So it's really. Great to have football back in
• 1:15
  our lives. Both.
• 1:16
  Both. Pro and college.
• 1:17
  But as I mentioned, no sleep for the for the wicked here, because
• 1:21
  we have. A Monday Night Football game
• 1:23
  tonight. Denver Broncos, Kansas City
• 1:25
  Chiefs. I got a.
• 1:26
  Best bet for you. So there's a play that we
• 1:28
  haven't talked about. At all, you know, again, I want
• 1:30
  to kind of get into. The the routine of trying to
• 1:33
  pick off. Good numbers.
• 1:34
  Early in the week, if there's something that, you know, is
• 1:36
  really piquing our interest, you know, matching our data-driven
• 1:39
  system. And maybe there's a good rhythm
• 1:41
  edge or a good. Juice Reel Angle Hey, we want to
• 1:43
  get that 7 1/2 before it gets down to seven.
• 1:46
  You know, we want to get that -2 1/2 before it goes up.
• 1:49
  To three, but there are some. Games where, again, you may not
• 1:52
  talk about it and it just kind of.
• 1:53
  Evolves into a play like if you don't.
• 1:55
  See something that is? Really.
• 1:56
  You know. Piquing your interest early.
• 1:58
  I always think it's never a bad idea just to wait, let the bets
• 2:00
  build up. Especially when it comes to
• 2:02
  these. Prime time games, your your
• 2:04
  Sunday night, you know your Monday night, your Thursday
• 2:06
  night because those are your standalones.
• 2:07
  Those are really the opportunities to go contrarian
• 2:10
  because you have the most amount of public betting coming in for
• 2:13
  those games, so. Chiefs Broncos best bet for you
• 2:16
  here tonight guys we're. Going to see if we can start off
• 2:18
  our week on a winning note. Second thing I want to mention
• 2:21
  is. Thank you to everyone.
• 2:23
  Who joined Survivor Now? You might.
• 2:25
  Have seen me tweeting up a storm.
• 2:27
  Because I was like a a guerrilla marketer.
• 2:29
  Over the weekend, just trying to get as many.
• 2:31
  Signups as possible for our Splash Sports survivor.
• 2:34
  Contest. And wouldn't you know it, we
• 2:36
  landed on 300 and. 44 entries. So I.
• 2:39
  Want to thank. Everyone for joining thanking.
• 2:41
  Everyone for putting. Up with my constant tweets and
• 2:44
  invites. Hope I didn't blow up your inbox
• 2:46
  too much. But really, really proud of
• 2:49
  three. 144 entries. Because last last year, What's
• 2:52
  cool about Splash Sports is. You have your My Commissioner
• 2:56
  tab. So you can.
• 2:56
  Look at all the. Contests you've done previously.
• 2:59
  And I think the first. One we did last year, the 1st.
• 3:01
  Annual I think it was 172 entries.
• 3:03
  So we. You know, pretty much.
• 3:04
  Doubled that, so I. Want to thank everyone for
• 3:06
  joining. I also want to.
• 3:09
  Say condolences to anyone. Who took the Chargers?
• 3:12
  Because there is something about the Chargers.
• 3:14
  That just kind. Of was a bit of a red flag and
• 3:16
  it was the fact that they are the most popular pick yet.
• 3:20
  The line kind of dropped a. Little bit away from them.
• 3:23
  Chargers were -10 1/2 down to -9 1/2.
• 3:26
  And again, 9 1/2 point favorite you should still.
• 3:28
  Win the game. It's still a massive upset that
• 3:30
  Arizona. Beat the Chargers.
• 3:32
  But because of that. Because of the Chargers losing.
• 3:35
  We went from 344 entries. Let's.
• 3:38
  See What are we down to? I want to.
• 3:40
  Double check this. We are now down to 249.
• 3:44
  So maybe a flip to the Jaguars, Maybe you you played the the
• 3:49
  Pittsburgh Steelers because Cooper Rush started and 2 of got
• 3:52
  hurt. But again, if.
• 3:54
  If you got the Chargers, hey. What can you do that's betting?
• 3:58
  If you had the the Jacksonville Jags or the Steelers, hey,
• 4:02
  you're survived here, but. Again, overall, I just want to
• 4:04
  say thank you to everyone for joining, for supporting the
• 4:08
  Survivor contest. That really meant a lot to me.
• 4:10
  Now real quick. Recap over the weekend.
• 4:13
  It was basically a break even because we had four college
• 4:15
  plays. Went two and two.
• 4:17
  We got some great hits with Michigan.
• 4:19
  Everyone and their mother was on Oklahoma and Michigan just came
• 4:23
  off that, you know. Controversial win last second.
• 4:25
  Against Western Michigan, I think.
• 4:27
  They should have lost. That game I still don't
• 4:29
  understand how they put an extra second on, but everyone was on
• 4:33
  Oklahoma. But that.
• 4:34
  Line kept dropping toward Michigan.
• 4:35
  I think they. Ended up closing like.
• 4:36
  Plus 4 1/2 at one point they're like +6.
• 4:38
  And 1/2 so if you have the stones to take.
• 4:41
  The number one contrarian play? Only 13% of tickets took
• 4:45
  Michigan. They won the game outright.
• 4:46
  What wasn't that great? Late night Texas Longhorns.
• 4:50
  Oh my God. All right, all right, all right
• 4:52
  though. Because the Longhorns, as bad as
• 4:54
  that game was, they were down, what was it, 20 to 3 or 23 to 3?
• 4:58
  And they came back in one. But the importance of what we
• 5:01
  always talked about on the pod money lining short.
• 5:04
  Favorites. Because Texas.
• 5:05
  Won by one point. They actually closed -2 1/2.
• 5:09
  I money lined them and you may have as well at -1 1/2.
• 5:12
  That's the importance. Of moneylining short favorite
• 5:15
  you lay one and half or two and half you.
• 5:16
  Lose Texas, you went. Money line you won.
• 5:19
  So Texas and Michigan were fantastic.
• 5:21
  Kentucky and Georgia Tech? Not fantastic.
• 5:24
  Kentucky annoyed me because. Got some CLV?
• 5:27
  Got them plus 10 1/2 they closed plus 9 1/2 they got rolled by
• 5:30
  Alabama. So thanks for not showing up at
• 5:31
  all. And then Georgia Tech plus the
• 5:33
  points. They're another sharp.
• 5:35
  Play they. Got rolled by Tennessee, so two
• 5:37
  and two Saturday. And then a three and three.
• 5:39
  Sunday some great hits. With the Saints.
• 5:42
  Saints Plus. Seven needed that thing.
• 5:44
  To go to overtime and then in. Overtime, you know, OK, they can
• 5:47
  only score six or seven that we can come.
• 5:50
  Back they went for two. They end up.
• 5:52
  Losing by 1. But Saints were that.
• 5:54
  Big Dog Plus. 6 1/2 system that came through, so it's nice to
• 5:57
  see the Saints cover. Vikings were incredible.
• 6:00
  Vikings were like the. The Texas Longhorns, because
• 6:02
  they were down big, it was a just terrible game.
• 6:05
  They came back and won though, and just.
• 6:07
  Unbelievably, it wasn't even a. You know, a sweat like toward
• 6:10
  the end they just poured it on, poured it on.
• 6:11
  They won't be like, what was it, 17 points or something?
• 6:14
  But Vikings were a fade the trendy dog dog to.
• 6:17
  Fave line move and then. The G.
• 6:19
  Ben, how about the? Giants getting it done.
• 6:22
  I tell you what guys, I love that.
• 6:23
  Spot a prime time game? Where that road favorites like.
• 6:26
  -3 Ish. Line doesn't really move at all.
• 6:29
  Everyone's. Playing that road favorite.
• 6:30
  Thinking they got a roll but the line pretty much stayed where
• 6:32
  it's at. So line freeze, Contrarian
• 6:34
  giants, Scataboo and Dark came up huge and so did Malik
• 6:38
  Neighbors and likely as well. So that was great.
• 6:41
  Losers, though, were the Panthers plus three and A.
• 6:42
  Half. I mean, that thing was nip and
• 6:44
  tuck and then man. Chicago just blew doors.
• 6:47
  In the 2nd or the 3rd. Third quarter, Fourth quarter.
• 6:50
  At one point that game was. 24 to 20.
• 6:52
  Four, It's like, OK, we got a shot here, but you know, Ben
• 6:56
  Johnson and the Bears. Wouldn't quit Colts plus 3 1/2
• 6:59
  another sharp play they got rolled so no show by the.
• 7:01
  Colts, you stink, Indianapolis. The one that really hurt though,
• 7:04
  which would have been a. Four in two day instead of three
• 7:06
  and three was the Texans. Texans plus 1 1/2 got down to 1.
• 7:11
  Public Played Buffalo Public. One on Buffalo.
• 7:14
  But the Texans had a lead late, and they actually had an
• 7:17
  opportunity with the. Ball in their hands.
• 7:19
  To to score and walk it off. And they got sacked, strip
• 7:22
  sacked and fumble by CJ Stroud. So.
• 7:25
  I think there's some good takeaways here guys, but I want
• 7:26
  to. Go.
• 7:27
  Four and O in college, 3:00 and 1:00 in.
• 7:29
  College, you know 4. And two, five and one NFL.
• 7:32
  Of course I would, But it's our first week, so we're getting
• 7:34
  back into the groove. Again, there's a lot of
• 7:36
  volatility week 1. It's like there's some good
• 7:38
  takeaways. Some of our systems came
• 7:39
  through, so we'll see if we can apply that here to today and
• 7:42
  moving on and moving forward. But with that being said, let's
• 7:46
  get to. A play here for tonight guys, so
• 7:48
  I just got one best bet for you. So we're going to get locked and
• 7:50
  loaded. We're going to sweat.
• 7:51
  This thing like crazy. Denver Broncos, Kansas City.
• 7:54
  Chiefs. So let's set the stage.
• 7:57
  Talk splits, talk line moves, and.
• 7:59
  I'll give you my play here for this one.
• 8:00
  So of course this. Is the final.
• 8:02
  Game of Week 1. One Night Football.
• 8:04
  And we got the divisional match. Up here between.
• 8:06
  Denver and Kansas City, now a. Little background Broncos
• 8:10
  remember. Went fourteen and three last
• 8:11
  year, so great season. Odds makers expect another.
• 8:14
  Good season they. Win total is 9 1/2 but.
• 8:16
  It is juiced over. -125 at DK Chiefs, meanwhile. 6:00 and
• 8:21
  11:00. Last year you really never see
• 8:23
  them having a down. Year like that, but odds makers
• 8:25
  do think they'll be better their win total.
• 8:27
  Is 10 1/2. This year.
• 8:28
  Although it is juiced. Under -140 so maybe they win 910
• 8:32
  games based on the juice. Now what?
• 8:34
  Do we see across the market for tonight?
• 8:35
  Well, this game's interesting. I've had a lot of people reach
• 8:37
  out to me. About this game and I want to
• 8:39
  kind of explain how I handle situations like this.
• 8:42
  Doesn't mean you. Have to do the same thing, but
• 8:44
  I've been betting a long time and this is kind of the way I
• 8:46
  approach these things so. Let's start off with always.
• 8:49
  Where did the line open at? It opened at Chiefs -2 1/2.
• 8:53
  At home now. The public says the wrong team
• 8:56
  is favored. You go to the.
• 8:57
  Bar. Tonight, everybody's going.
• 8:58
  Denver and Bo Nicks, right now 66.
• 9:01
  Percent of spread bets at DK. Are going with the.
• 9:04
  Broncos. So right off the bat.
• 9:06
  Primetime game? Heavily bet.
• 9:09
  Tons of. Public action Publix on Denver.
• 9:11
  Automatically as a contrarian. I say give me Kansas City.
• 9:15
  Here's where it gets more interesting, and also a little.
• 9:17
  Bit more challenging, Kansas. City open -2 and a.
• 9:20
  Half 2/3 of. Bets are on Denver.
• 9:22
  But Kansas City has. Remained minus. 2 1/2.
• 9:25
  For much of the day, this. Told me that basically.
• 9:28
  We had a sharp line freeze, so even though you had heavy
• 9:30
  betting, Denver line really didn't move at all.
• 9:32
  That is an indicator of liability on Kansas City,
• 9:35
  basically. Despite all the public.
• 9:37
  Support. For Denver odds makers.
• 9:39
  Don't want to get down to a pick because they don't want to hand
• 9:41
  out a better number to contrarians who want to go.
• 9:43
  KC That was pretty much the story all day, however, over the
• 9:46
  last couple. Hours, early afternoon.
• 9:49
  Some books are getting down to -2 so there's still some 2.
• 9:51
  And a half's out there, some books.
• 9:53
  Are down to Kansas City -2. Now a.
• 9:56
  Lot of people. Reached out to me.
• 9:57
  And said OK now that it went from. 2 1/2 down to two.
• 9:59
  That means you like. Denver, right.
• 10:01
  And here's. The way I look at it.
• 10:04
  One, I'm sticking with Kansas City because the bet.
• 10:07
  Splits are still sharp. In contrarian on Kansas City.
• 10:09
  So if you look. At DK right now.
• 10:11
  We have 34% of spread bets. But 52% of spread dollars?
• 10:16
  On the Chiefs. So that is a low bets higher
• 10:19
  dollar split. In favor of KC.
• 10:21
  We look over at Circa. 41. Percent bets 47.
• 10:24
  Percent dollars. On KC, So yes, some books are 2
• 10:28
  1/2 down to 2. So we have to.
• 10:30
  We have to. Respect that.
• 10:31
  There was some respected. Money who did take?
• 10:33
  Denver plus 2 1/2. But to me, the reason why I'm
• 10:36
  sticking with Kansas City, one, I'm a dance with the one who
• 10:38
  brung you. Guys, you know if I make.
• 10:40
  A bet and ideally. I want that CLV.
• 10:43
  I I want Denver and my guy only locks reach out to me earlier
• 10:46
  and said hey, you still like KC and kind of.
• 10:48
  What I said is, you know. Do I like?
• 10:50
  That Kansas City has fallen at some some shops -2 1/2 down to
• 10:53
  two. No, I don't like that.
• 10:54
  I'm not going to be fully transparent.
• 10:57
  Because it because it tells me I have to respect there was some
• 10:59
  plus 2 1/2 Denver money. I much rather would have loved
• 11:02
  Kansas. City to get up.
• 11:04
  From -2 1/2 to up to minus. Three.
• 11:06
  The reason? Why I'm sticking with the
• 11:07
  Chiefs, though, is. That they're still contrarian.
• 11:10
  In a heavily back. Game they're only getting. 34.
• 11:12
  Percent of spread bets at DK. They're also still a fade the
• 11:16
  trendy. Dog play.
• 11:17
  Remember, public loves betting favorites.
• 11:19
  If you went. Back, you know.
• 11:20
  Five years ago, when the chiefs are in their dynasty.
• 11:23
  And they're -2 and. Half at home.
• 11:25
  I don't care who they're playing unless it's like.
• 11:27
  Brady and the Pats. You know 80% of bets are going
• 11:29
  to lay. Mahomes -2 and half at.
• 11:31
  Home. So the fact that we have Kansas
• 11:33
  City. Kind of off of down here
• 11:35
  Mahomes. As it is had his ACL again they
• 11:38
  made. Some moves in the offseason, the
• 11:40
  fact that they're -2 and half or -2 and still.
• 11:43
  Unpopular. That's a.
• 11:45
  Fade the trendy dog. So again, public close.
• 11:47
  Favorites when they load up on a dog, the old joke is.
• 11:50
  That you know. Dogs have fleas or trendy dogs
• 11:53
  have fleas, so. Again, you want to kind of go
• 11:57
  against the grain. Normally you're going to go
• 11:59
  against the grain with. A with a dog because public
• 12:01
  Love's favorite, so like the. Saints and the Giants.
• 12:03
  Were good examples. We like the gross dirty hazmat
• 12:06
  dogs. We don't like the popular dogs
• 12:09
  that just. Came out of the the spa and you
• 12:11
  know the poodles that got. Nicely, you know, washed.
• 12:13
  And trimmed and look. Amazing.
• 12:15
  And there's no hair between their toes.
• 12:16
  No, we like the gross dogs, the dogs at the pound, the.
• 12:18
  Dogs no one wants. Denver is not a dog.
• 12:21
  That no. One wants.
• 12:22
  Denver is the. Poodle that everyone wants.
• 12:24
  That's. Nicely groomed and manicured so
• 12:27
  it's still a fade. The trendy dog play to take KC.
• 12:29
  They still have really sharp bet split you look at favorites so
• 12:32
  far. They are 11 and four straight up
• 12:34
  in week. One that's a. 73% win rate, 11%
• 12:37
  ROI. Patrick Mahomes straight up at
• 12:40
  home and the regular. Season has been great. 47 and
• 12:42
  12. 80%. 3% ROI. Now, if you tell me like Denver
• 12:47
  and you did want to tease them up 2 1/2 up to 8 1/2, go through
• 12:50
  a couple key numbers. I I respect that.
• 12:52
  That is a long. Teaser so if you tell me you
• 12:54
  want to tease Denver, I'd. I'd be more.
• 12:56
  Inclined to do that. Even though, again, they're a
• 12:58
  very trendy dog. But that would be a value play.
• 13:01
  My other. Angle here though, is.
• 13:02
  Kind of like with. Texas.
• 13:05
  And with the Vikings, it mattered.
• 13:07
  Huge Bigley with Texas it. Didn't matter with the Vikings
• 13:10
  in the end because. They.
• 13:10
  Won by a bunch. But money lining Short favorite.
• 13:14
  I am not laying a - 2 - 2 now with Kansas City.
• 13:17
  They win by one or two, you know, also Denver, Sean Payton,
• 13:20
  he. Goes for two a lot.
• 13:21
  This score could it could be very critical around A2.
• 13:24
  Point game. So I'm money lined Kansas City.
• 13:27
  Now at the time. Kansas City at draft at FanDuel,
• 13:30
  I should say. Was -130.
• 13:32
  There's an odds boost that FanDuel gave to me.
• 13:35
  I got him down to -1 O 2, so I played a -, 1 O 2.
• 13:39
  If we look at. The splits on the money line as
• 13:41
  well, 36% bets, 62% money at Circa is on the Chiefs money
• 13:48
  line. So Chiefs money line out in
• 13:50
  Vegas again only. 1/3 of bets, but 2/3 of the 2/3.
• 13:53
  Of the money is showing a really sharp split in favor of.
• 13:56
  Kansas City Lastly, we're looking at a 5%, nothing crazy,
• 14:00
  but A5. Percent sharp mush edge.
• 14:02
  On the. Chiefs at Juice Reel tells me a
• 14:04
  lot of sharp or betters at Juice.
• 14:06
  Reel are also going with Kansas City.
• 14:09
  So again, if you. Tell me, like Denver, I'm not
• 14:12
  going to touch Denver. Because they're a fade.
• 14:14
  For me, a trendy dog in a primetime game?
• 14:16
  No freaking way. Give me the gross.
• 14:18
  Contrarian favorite in a primetime game.
• 14:20
  But if you got 2 1/2 with Denver and books are getting down to. 2
• 14:23
  As a sports better, I got to respect you because you're
• 14:26
  getting some CLV. There but for me.
• 14:29
  This an auto bet to fade a trendy.
• 14:30
  Dog Go KC money line. So I did play.
• 14:33
  KC again -130 got them boosted down to -1 O2 now in terms.
• 14:38
  Of the total was 42 and half up to 43 and half it.
• 14:41
  Looked like a pretty clear overplay earlier.
• 14:44
  But now it's kind of changing. You are now seeing that total
• 14:48
  fall a little bit down to 43 and the splits are kind of getting
• 14:51
  sharper on the under at circa right now.
• 14:55
  You got 62%. Bets 83% dollars on the under
• 14:59
  and what's interesting. To me, is that overs?
• 15:00
  Crushed it, they went. 9:00 and 6:00 so.
• 15:02
  Far in Week 1 and some of these games are just insane, you know?
• 15:06
  Teams like the. Bears scoring 59.
• 15:08
  So public who played overs there you know they cash they had a
• 15:11
  great. Week great weekend this.
• 15:14
  Is a low total, and yet it's. Starting to fall back.
• 15:16
  Down South looks like. That under 43 1/2 was a bit.
• 15:18
  Of a sharp play. I'm not touching the total.
• 15:21
  Because I don't love. Having both a side and a total
• 15:24
  because it's hard to get both and you would hate, you know,
• 15:27
  Kansas City to win in a high scoring game and then you win
• 15:29
  KC, but you lose your, you know, you lose your under.
• 15:33
  But I will just mention that again, that was 43 1/2 seem to
• 15:35
  be juiced down getting down to 43.
• 15:37
  Splits look pretty sharp. On the under and.
• 15:39
  Is a little bit of a windy under.
• 15:40
  Play and it's like. 80° or 85° it's pretty hot in.
• 15:44
  KC but the. Wind is blowing about 12 miles
• 15:46
  an hour. Prime time under historically
• 15:48
  have done well also, so we'll see how that shapes up.
• 15:51
  But last play of Week 1 here guys.
• 15:54
  Will be nice to finish off week 1 on a hot note.
• 15:58
  Because we started off great with both.
• 16:00
  Who was it the Patriots covering?
• 16:02
  And the 49ers covering, but I'm going KC.
• 16:05
  You're welcome to join me on the money line with the Chiefs.
• 16:08
  Or you can do whatever whatever you want.
• 16:10
  Tail fade. Do what you like from a
• 16:12
  data-driven, contrarian perspective.
• 16:14
  I got to go Chiefs tonight on the money line.
• 16:16
  So that about does it for episode 5. 78 of the all.
• 16:19
  Systems Go sports betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
• 16:23
  This is the part of the pod where we wrap things up.
• 16:25
  Now we start first by saying thank you.
• 16:27
  Thank you for listening. Thank you for tuning in.
• 16:29
  Thank you for grinding in the arena with me.
• 16:31
  Every single day. Through the UPS and the downs,
• 16:33
  the good and. The bad, the great.
• 16:34
  Wins the heartbreaking losses. Just like in life.
• 16:37
  You got ups and downs. Sports betting, there's ups and
• 16:39
  downs. We're always playing that long
• 16:41
  game. We're staying true to the model,
• 16:43
  sharp contrarian, and we're grinding out a profit long term.
• 16:46
  So if you enjoy this pod. You value the insights.
• 16:48
  Hopefully I would love for you to support this podcast.
• 16:50
  Give it a five star review. Only takes a second on Spotify
• 16:53
  or iTunes. Leave a.
• 16:55
  Nice comment. If you feel so inclined, maybe
• 16:57
  say what you. Like about the pod?
• 16:59
  If you want to. Click the Follow button.
• 17:00
  Recommend the pod to a friend. Retweet or like the.
• 17:03
  Pod when I put it out on Twitter anywhere, all those things be
• 17:05
  very much appreciated. So Next up.
• 17:09
  If you enjoy the style of sports.
• 17:10
  Betting data-driven, sharp contrarian betting focusing on
• 17:14
  line movement bets but. System matches.
• 17:15
  Taking a contrarian approach, this style betting has appealed
• 17:19
  to you it's. Spoken to you.
• 17:20
  I had someone reach out to me and the other day on Twitter and
• 17:23
  say I never in my life would have taken Michigan.
• 17:25
  But I. Followed the sharp move and I
• 17:27
  cash. So I appreciate that.
• 17:28
  Another person reach out to me and say you know I never would
• 17:31
  money line because it would maybe cost a little more but
• 17:33
  thank God I money line. Texas so if this pod has helped
• 17:36
  you to. Cash some tickets showing you a
• 17:37
  couple good insights and you want to maybe, you know, spread.
• 17:40
  Around the the knowledge or give the give.
• 17:43
  The insights to someone who who might need them I.
• 17:45
  Would love for. You to go to Amazon.com, type in
• 17:48
  the NFL Sharp Betting Playbook or the Everything Guide to
• 17:51
  Sports Betting. Grab a copy for you or a buddy.
• 17:54
  Bring them the sports book. I'll sign them for you.
• 17:55
  I'll buy you a beer or ginger ale.
• 17:57
  Sweat some games together. Next, have you downloaded Rhythm
• 18:01
  and Juice Reel yet? My two favorite.
• 18:02
  Sports betting apps Rhythm for their AI backed models and
• 18:05
  predictions for game bets. And player props, Juice Reel, so
• 18:09
  many great features. The Robo Jackson best bet picks.
• 18:11
  Syncing up your sports books. Getting a running report card of
• 18:14
  your action. Also the sharp mush edges I love
• 18:17
  looking. At where the the smart money's
• 18:18
  leaning. But also if you want to support
• 18:20
  the team. You want to tip your podcast
• 18:23
  host? I would love for you to sign up
• 18:24
  for my Best bet picks. You get them.
• 18:26
  Directly from Juice Reel. It cost you 10 bucks a week.
• 18:29
  Or 25 bucks a month as soon as I make a bet.
• 18:31
  It goes to the Juice Reel page. For all systems go.
• 18:34
  Pod. And you can again tail fade do.
• 18:36
  What you like when you get the plays early?
• 18:38
  And you'll be supporting the the pod again.
• 18:40
  I make the joke, but. If you go out.
• 18:42
  To dinner, you know the. The server, the bartender treats
• 18:44
  you right. You give them a tip.
• 18:45
  At the end of the night. If you enjoy.
• 18:46
  The pot in these insights I help you get a little bit sharper
• 18:49
  then go repay the favor sign up to get a week or more of the
• 18:52
  best bet picks on juice reel, but download rhythm download.
• 18:55
  Juice Reel Give them both. A five star.
• 18:57
  Review in the App Store next do. You have a live odds page.
• 19:01
  If you don't have one, you need one.
• 19:03
  You got to be able to track the market.
• 19:04
  In real time, identify. Line movement Identify late
• 19:07
  steam. Find the book giving you the
• 19:09
  best price get. Live in game wagering odds if.
• 19:11
  You don't have a. Live odds page I don't know how
• 19:13
  you're betting on sports every day.
• 19:14
  It is a must have and the. Best live odds?
• 19:17
  Page around is. Odds logic if.
• 19:18
  You ever want to give it a shot? I got a special.
• 19:20
  Link for you. Oddslogic.com.
• 19:23
  Slash Josh. 123 that's going to give you a 7 day.
• 19:26
  Free trial and 50. Percent off your first month of
• 19:29
  service. Again, that's odds
• 19:30
  logic.com/josh 123 Next. I got a new thing at the end of
• 19:35
  my pod that I'm going to plug for you, Novig.
• 19:38
  I'm a proud affiliate of Novig. Novig.
• 19:40
  Is a prediction market. Good thing about prediction
• 19:43
  markets you're not. Going up against.
• 19:44
  The house you're going going up against?
• 19:46
  Other betters so you're going to get way better juice prices.
• 19:49
  So if you're looking to get away from the sports books, who make
• 19:51
  you pay the juice. And make a you can basically.
• 19:54
  Win at the same rate you would at.
• 19:56
  DraftKings, FanDuel. But you go to Novig and.
• 19:59
  You have the same exact win percentage, but you're going to
• 20:00
  make more money because you're paying less juice.
• 20:03
  So go download Novig. And use the promo.
• 20:05
  Code Josh 123. If you put in at least 10 bucks.
• 20:08
  They'll add 25 bucks in credits to your account.
• 20:11
  Again, it's Josh 123 promo code on Novig.
• 20:14
  So that about does it. For episode 570.
• 20:16
  Eight of the ASG. Pod on a big Monday.
• 20:19
  As always guys 2. Final thoughts one whether I see
• 20:21
  you at the. Borgata in Vegas.
• 20:24
  Or at the Borgata in Jersey or up in my neck.
• 20:27
  Of the Woods, Massachusetts at Bet MGM.
• 20:30
  Or or the Encore Casino. We're down in Connecticut.
• 20:33
  Where we where? We where we grind at Mohegan
• 20:36
  Sun, we're out in Vegas. Where the true grinders?
• 20:38
  Get down where Billy Walters sends his number runners where?
• 20:40
  The lowest choose possible. Is found at the South point or
• 20:43
  sweat and sharp contrain plays jumping in the stadium swim pool
• 20:46
  when you cash a big. Ticket at circa Whatever it may
• 20:48
  be, you're. Going to walk up to me, show me
• 20:50
  Michigan and. Texas from Saturday.
• 20:52
  Show me Saints, Vikings. Giants from yesterday.
• 20:55
  First one's on me, next one's on you.
• 20:56
  Will post about the. Book sweat, Sharp contrain plays
• 20:59
  all night long. So as always, guys coming off a
• 21:02
  what was it? A5 and five.
• 21:04
  Weekend or man, you're making do all these.
• 21:07
  A1 and 9A2 and eight. Three and seven.
• 21:10
  A4 and 6A10 and O&O and 10, A nine and one.
• 21:13
  An 8 and 2, seven and three. Whatever the case may.
• 21:17
  Be great weekend, terrible weekend grinding.
• 21:20
  We can just never get too high when.
• 21:21
  Things are good or too low when things are bad.
• 21:23
  We got to stay. The course think long term and
• 21:25
  keep grinding. So as always guys, we're looking
• 21:28
  for games that fit our model against the public, with the
• 21:30
  house, with the pros. Flat bet Avoid parlays.
• 21:33
  And get some CLV. If we can do that, we're.
• 21:35
  Going to be successful sports bettors so wish everyone the
• 21:38
  best of luck. Hope you had a great weekend.
• 21:40
  Guys, let's go. Kansas City Chiefs on the.
• 21:42
  Money Line. Again, thank you to everyone who
• 21:44
  supported and signed up. For the Survivor pool with
• 21:47
  Splash Sports. I hope everyone had someone
• 21:49
  other than the Chargers. But as always, guys.
• 21:52
  Let's see if we can get a winner tonight and I'll be right.
• 21:53
  Back at it tomorrow, we'll talk about some.
• 21:55
  Early NFL and college games. Early sharp line moves.
• 21:58
  Maybe we'll. Have a couple plays or two.
• 22:00
  For tomorrow, that'll be episode 579.
• 22:03
  Of the all systems. Go sports betting podcast
• 22:05
  powered by Rhythm. Good luck everybody and have a
• 22:07
  great Monday night.