Latest / Best of Business / John Key: Former Prime Minister on the Ignite 25 Growth Summit, Trump tariffs

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John Key: Former Prime Minister on the Ignite 25 Growth Summit, Trump tariffs · Best of Business

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  Speaker 1: You're listening to a podcast from News Talks'd be follow
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: this and our wide range of podcasts now on iHeartRadio.
• 0:16
  Speaker 2: A big day for business in this country is hundreds
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  Speaker 2: gather at the inaugural Ice House Ignite twenty five summit.
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  Speaker 2: The plan has to spark business led growth in the
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  Speaker 2: economy of the star. Turn is Sir John Key, who.
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  Speaker 3: Is with us.
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  Speaker 2: Very good morning to you, Mollie, Mike. Are we in
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  Speaker 2: need of a shot in the arm?
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  Speaker 3: Oh?
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  Speaker 1: Yeah.
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  Speaker 3: Look, I think if you walk out there at the
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  Speaker 3: moment and ask people what's the business environment like, I
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  Speaker 3: think most people would say it's been pretty tough over
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  Speaker 3: the last eighteen months, a few years. But you know,
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  Speaker 3: but as they say in ice hockey, it's a little
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  Speaker 3: bit less about where the puck's been, a bit more
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  Speaker 3: about where it's going. And I think the fundamental reason
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  Speaker 3: we've been in such bad shape is because interest rates
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  Speaker 3: have been in the wrong place, and that's been a
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  Speaker 3: slightly self induced position. Too much been by the previous government,
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  Speaker 3: too much pressure, pretty slow to react I think personally
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  Speaker 3: on the en straight environment from the Reserve Bank. So
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  Speaker 3: if you accept that argument in straits have been lowered,
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  Speaker 3: I think actually they're going to come down even more.
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  Speaker 3: I mean, it's less predictable from him. I still think
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  Speaker 3: they go lower and you'll start breathing some confidence back.
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  Speaker 3: And I think you're very slowly saying to see that
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  Speaker 3: in the housing market, agriculture, as you've pointed out in
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  Speaker 3: your show many times, is on fire. And actually I
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  Speaker 3: think there's some things the government are doing. I mean
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  Speaker 3: my understanding is the uptake of this high net with
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  Speaker 3: individual visa category is really starting to pour an in
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  Speaker 3: big way. So again, you know, there's some light at
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  Speaker 3: the end of the tunnel.
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  Speaker 2: Really, Okay, Having said all of that, do we know
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  Speaker 2: where the puck is going when we've got a bloke
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  Speaker 2: in America who's changing the rules literally on a daily basis.
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, you know, to describe as unpredictable would be,
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  Speaker 3: you know, an understatement. But let's just take one step
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  Speaker 3: back and say, what do we know? Okay? So Donald
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  Speaker 3: Trump hates trade oars hairs, go and look at the
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  Speaker 3: videos of them forty years ago. He hasn't changed, saying
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  Speaker 3: the same thing as he was then as he is now.
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  Speaker 3: And he find of me, he thinks that the playing
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  Speaker 3: field is not level and America gets taken advantage of
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  Speaker 3: now to a degree, to a level playing field, right,
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  Speaker 3: not say I agree with his policies. I'm saying it's
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  Speaker 3: god point. So then you still say, okay, well he's
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  Speaker 3: put on these massive tariffs, and what did he get
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  Speaker 3: an enormous vomit from the stock market and the bond markets,
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  Speaker 3: and that forced them to take them off with everyone
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  Speaker 3: except China. So let's part China up for a few seconds.
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  Speaker 3: I was there last week at shit in China. But
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  Speaker 3: take that out, you know, take that off the table
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  Speaker 3: for a second, because they're an individual case. Then what
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  Speaker 3: he's sort of saying is, well, I'm going to negotiate
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  Speaker 3: with people, and I'm going to negotiate with countries. We'll
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  Speaker 3: see how it all goes. If you don't play ball,
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  Speaker 3: I'll put it back on. But here's the best predictor,
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  Speaker 3: I think the markets, and that is the markets themselves,
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  Speaker 3: the stop market, the bond markets, the currency markets. They
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  Speaker 3: are not buying that he's leaving massive tariffs on. When
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  Speaker 3: you put them on, they had a reaction. You know,
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  Speaker 3: as Andrew Kalaher points out on your show every morning,
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  Speaker 3: you know, that's not been the situation for the last
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  Speaker 3: twelve days. So these people are pretty smart and they've
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  Speaker 3: worked out that he's going to negotiate some solution.
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  Speaker 2: Okay, India, our boots are on the ground for this FTA.
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  Speaker 2: You tried, you couldn't do it. Will they this time?
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  Speaker 2: And will it be quality?
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  Speaker 3: Got a better chance with Mumah with Mody. I was
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  Speaker 3: then with mum Hun Sing lovely man actually passed away recently.
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  Speaker 3: But you know, I was up against the bureaucracy and
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  Speaker 3: never want to do it. I think this is the
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  Speaker 3: way to look at it is that I think if
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  Speaker 3: you believe you're going to get a comprehensive, you know,
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  Speaker 3: incredible suptin uts FTA with India in day one, then
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  Speaker 3: I think you're going to be disappointed. And I mean
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  Speaker 3: I remember standing in the Beehive Theater doing a press
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  Speaker 3: conference with the visiting then in the Minister of Trade
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  Speaker 3: from India, and he said, I'll do an FTA with
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  Speaker 3: New Zealand on podium right here, right now, And I said, yeah,
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  Speaker 3: but you'll exclude agriculture and you'll exclude all of the
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  Speaker 3: things we want right And it's like a lot of
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  Speaker 3: things life. You can write anything down, but if you
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  Speaker 3: excluded bit's the matter. It doesn't do much. So my
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  Speaker 3: point would be you can always get an FTA. That's
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  Speaker 3: not the judge. It's the quality or the tests. It's
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  Speaker 3: the quality of what actually comes out at the other end.
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  Speaker 3: But I suspect what's going to happen is they're going
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  Speaker 3: to get what in sort of trade talk is called
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  Speaker 3: the early harvest. I think they'll get certain categories where
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  Speaker 3: they'll get some gain. So for the likes of maybe
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  Speaker 3: a zespre for instance, could be really really important and
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  Speaker 3: really useful across the board. That takes a much longer
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  Speaker 3: period of time.
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  Speaker 2: You made a very good point about the Trump point,
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  Speaker 2: which is that it's not a level playing field. And
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  Speaker 2: one of the people who moved the level playing field
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  Speaker 2: away from being leveled was you when you're older Jackson
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  Speaker 2: into Premier House and the LTD all those years ago
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  Speaker 2: and on that Trump is right, isn't he?
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  Speaker 3: Yeah? No, No, here's the deal. I mean when we
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  Speaker 3: put in the incentives, which there were already something sensives there,
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  Speaker 3: but we fundamentally made them better than let's beyonds for
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  Speaker 3: the movie industry. I remember discussions around the cabinet and
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  Speaker 3: you know, it's like a lot of around the cabinet table.
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  Speaker 3: You may not like what you're suggested. You just like
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  Speaker 3: the alternative even less, which was they were going to
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  Speaker 3: go to the UK and make the Hobbits over there.
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  Speaker 3: Peter didn't want to go, if you want to brothers
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  Speaker 3: thought he'd make a better movie in a series of
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  Speaker 3: movies in New Zealand, like he did. But the reality
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  Speaker 3: was that it's just a business that gravitates to where
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  Speaker 3: the incentives are the greatest. And so you've seen a
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  Speaker 3: hollowing out of the movie industry in Hollywood, and so
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  Speaker 3: Trump is right about that actually, and so I guess
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  Speaker 3: my point being, I think if we all sit there
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  Speaker 3: and say, if he really can put one hundred percent
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  Speaker 3: tariff on and let's or a very significant terror I
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  Speaker 3: don't know exactly appliers like for instance, I mean, you know,
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  Speaker 3: there's only so much AI generation you might want to
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  Speaker 3: do of a backdrop that was used in the making
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  Speaker 3: of many movies that have used New zealm landscape, or
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  Speaker 3: where you've used very specific technology out to where the workshops.
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  Speaker 3: So let's just argue for moments of very large TERRFF.
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  Speaker 3: Then there's just no getting away from the fact that
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  Speaker 3: it will completely rebalance the cost effectiveness of where things
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  Speaker 3: are made. But on the other side of the coin,
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  Speaker 3: the only point of sort of make is that if
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  Speaker 3: that meant that everyone eliminated any kind of subsidies, then
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  Speaker 3: interestingly enough, actually New zale went on that basis because
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  Speaker 3: we've always been a really good place to do things,
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  Speaker 3: because of the skills and talent here and the natural landscape.
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  Speaker 2: Exactly. I was talking before the news about kids leaving
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  Speaker 2: the country and the numbers and generally New Zealanders leaving
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  Speaker 2: the country. As a person who can live anywhere in
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  Speaker 2: the world, are you bullish for this place still?
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  Speaker 3: Yeah? I mean, you know the sort of argments that
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  Speaker 3: you hear sometimes. You know, we're a giant retirement village
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  Speaker 3: and with this and with that. Yeah, yeah, okay, but
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  Speaker 3: I get that, and I don't want to be some
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  Speaker 3: sort of ridiculous Pollyanna. But but you know, I travel
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  Speaker 3: the world quite a lot. I'm off the States next week,
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  Speaker 3: as I was in China last week. You still get
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  Speaker 3: that feeling when you come home to New Zealand where
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  Speaker 3: there's it's more than just look, it's a nice place
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  Speaker 3: to live in there. Every country you go to has
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  Speaker 3: significant problems. I mean, just list them in the United States,
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  Speaker 3: from racial issues to break trust in the systems to
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  Speaker 3: it no longer independent judiciary. I mean, you just go
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  Speaker 3: on on on, can't you. But it still doesn't mean
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  Speaker 3: it's not a great place to live. So my point
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  Speaker 3: is that it's the same one I always used to
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  Speaker 3: make when I was Prime Minister. Look, we have tyranny
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  Speaker 3: of distance, always been our problem. We're at the bottom
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  Speaker 3: of the world. Well, actually technology is changing that very
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  Speaker 3: rapidly in helping us. We also are very small. So
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  Speaker 3: while we you know, like you know, I have simpathy
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  Speaker 3: for Crys Luxance Peem. You know, it's slow to turn
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  Speaker 3: things around, but we're still a lot quicker to turn
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  Speaker 3: around in a bigger country. I mean, can we, with
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  Speaker 3: the right policies, with the rights of the level of confidence,
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  Speaker 3: with the right sense of enthusiasm, could we actually make
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  Speaker 3: New Zealand you know, a fantastic better place than it
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  Speaker 3: currently is. The answer is absolutely. And I always thought,
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  Speaker 3: you know, like we campaigned three elections on ambitious for
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  Speaker 3: New Zealand building a brighter future. Why do we do that?
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  Speaker 3: Because that resonated number one with voters of anything we
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  Speaker 3: ever tested through a focus group, and that shows you
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  Speaker 3: people want their country to do really well. And actually,
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  Speaker 3: for the most part, New Zealand is a hard working,
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  Speaker 3: decent people. We actually do have decent institutions like a
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  Speaker 3: very loyal and dependable police force and the proper judiciary
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  Speaker 3: and all those things. So I guess that's a long
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  Speaker 3: winded way of saying we're a great place to grow things,
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  Speaker 3: We're a beautiful place to visit. We do have some
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  Speaker 3: very smart do we need to do a hell of
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  Speaker 3: a lot better and socks up? And actually do we
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  Speaker 3: need to be more welcoming to foreign capital, smart foreigners
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  Speaker 3: who want to come and live here. People who want
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  Speaker 3: to stop them these stupid things like, oh, they can't
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  Speaker 3: come here and buy a house something, For god's sake,
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  Speaker 3: If they've got an IQ that's well above one hundred
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  Speaker 3: and they're bringing capital or whatever, let's have them in
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  Speaker 3: the country generating jobs. But can we do it? The
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  Speaker 3: answer is absolutely we can.
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  Speaker 2: Good stuff. I always good to talk to. You appreciate it,
• 9:34
  Speaker 2: so John Keith.
• 9:35
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