Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / Gambling on NFL Week 2 with Pro Gambler Simon Hunter

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Gambling on NFL Week 2 with Pro Gambler Simon Hunter · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:09
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast from the Action Network.
0:13
Speaker 1: I am Chad Millman and I will be joined by
0:17
Speaker 1: Simon Hunter, Professional Better. Who did us a gift? Who
0:22
Speaker 1: did us right? Because in the first weekend, the very
0:26
Speaker 1: first weekend of the Draft Kings Pro Football pick Um
0:29
Speaker 1: National Championship, we went five and oh five and oh
0:35
Speaker 1: five and oh? What am I talking about here? As
0:45
Speaker 1: you all may recall in case you need a reminder,
0:48
Speaker 1: last year Professional Better Simon Hunter joined the podcast and
0:51
Speaker 1: offered season pick um contest advice every single week. This year,
0:56
Speaker 1: we are taking it a step further. He is joining
0:58
Speaker 1: the Draft Kings Football pick Up National Championship and every
1:02
Speaker 1: week we are going to decide what picks he should put. In.
1:08
Speaker 1: Last week, week one of an unprecedented season, an impossible season,
1:14
Speaker 1: Simon went five and oh five and oh in the
1:17
Speaker 1: very first week. I feel like I have something to
1:19
Speaker 1: do with it. I helped helped walking through every game.
1:22
Speaker 1: We're gonna go through every game, even if it's a
1:24
Speaker 1: game we don't end up liking. For the contest, it's
1:26
Speaker 1: gonna be a game that we probably have opinions and
1:28
Speaker 1: advice on. You will be able to get all of
1:31
Speaker 1: that if you read the story on Action network dot com,
1:34
Speaker 1: or you can follow the picks that we ultimately put in.
1:38
Speaker 1: We put these in on Saturday morning. That's when we're
1:41
Speaker 1: gonna put him in in the d K contest. Uh.
1:43
Speaker 1: Follow Simon Hunter in the Action app. That's where you
1:46
Speaker 1: can keep track of all the picks we are putting
1:49
Speaker 1: in to the contest. Every week, we're offering top match
1:52
Speaker 1: insight into a professional vetters do when they break down games,
1:56
Speaker 1: what they look at. You will get lifelong lessons. He's
2:00
Speaker 1: gonna come up in just a minute, but reminder, go
2:04
Speaker 1: rate and review the podcast this week. This week the
2:07
Speaker 1: phrase the pays Simon says, let's go undefeated. If we
2:11
Speaker 1: like it and we randomly choose it, you will win
2:13
Speaker 1: a free Action Network coody. We will announce last week's
2:17
Speaker 1: winner at the end of the show. Uh, Simon coming back.
2:23
Speaker 1: Holy freaking crap. Simon, tell me you've never had a
2:28
Speaker 1: weekend like you had this weekend. I wish I could
2:31
Speaker 1: say that, but actually happened to decent amount of times. Yeah, buddy,
2:36
Speaker 1: I was going crazy. Uh, it's funny I talked to you.
2:40
Speaker 1: I guess it was either Saturday afternoon Sunday morning, I
2:43
Speaker 1: was like, we have to use two bye weeks in
2:45
Speaker 1: this competition. I was pleading to Chad, can we use
2:48
Speaker 1: a bye week this week? Be cause I slept maybe
2:50
Speaker 1: four hours. Just number is running through my head, overthinking everything,
2:55
Speaker 1: just saying, oh my, this is gonna be a doomsday.
2:57
Speaker 1: I like had to owe him five feeling and I
2:59
Speaker 1: try getting you at and you said we couldn't do
3:01
Speaker 1: it to the fans. We had we had to put
3:03
Speaker 1: the picks in and uh, sure enough, man five and
3:07
Speaker 1: know that that that that's it's crazy. Yeah, it's insane.
3:11
Speaker 1: And I wanted noted that I did think of the fans.
3:14
Speaker 1: You texted me. True story. You texted me Saturday morning.
3:18
Speaker 1: I was in my car in line to get a
3:22
Speaker 1: COVID nineteen test because I had surgery on Monday on
3:29
Speaker 1: my thumb. Uh. Everybody may recall that I broke my
3:33
Speaker 1: pinky earlier in the summer, did not need to get surgery,
3:36
Speaker 1: But then two weeks ago I broke my thumb playing
3:39
Speaker 1: football with my kid, so this one required surgery. I
3:43
Speaker 1: have two pins in my thumb. Now I got the
3:45
Speaker 1: surgery twenty four hours ago, but you had to get
3:47
Speaker 1: a COVID test in advance. They wouldn't see you unless
3:50
Speaker 1: you sort of had you were you were negative for COVID.
3:52
Speaker 1: So you're texting me in the cars. I'm waiting in
3:55
Speaker 1: line for this COVID thing. And first, and this is
3:57
Speaker 1: why it's important you listen to the podcast. But you
3:59
Speaker 1: got a follow Simon, And yeah, because we were gonna
4:03
Speaker 1: go with Jacksonville. I think the final the picks we
4:06
Speaker 1: had decided on where Jacksonville, the Rams, um Baltimore. I
4:11
Speaker 1: forgot the other two. And um, you texted me Saturday morning,
4:16
Speaker 1: You're like, we should do the Bengals. I'm like, all right,
4:19
Speaker 1: let's do the Bengals. And then you're like, or maybe
4:21
Speaker 1: we shouldn't do it at all, Maybe we should just skip.
4:23
Speaker 1: I'm like, dude, we gotta put the picks in. We
4:27
Speaker 1: must put the pixel But why did you decide? Explain
4:29
Speaker 1: why you decided to switch from the Jaguars to the Bengals,
4:32
Speaker 1: because it ultimately it meant everything. Yeah, and it's also
4:38
Speaker 1: that the Jags that was I loved that number a lot,
4:43
Speaker 1: but it was scaring me. Was that, Um, I just
4:48
Speaker 1: thought we weren't getting the best of the number. It
4:50
Speaker 1: had moved up to like eight and a half or
4:52
Speaker 1: nine at one point, and in my mind, the Bengals
4:55
Speaker 1: a three and a half. That's the perfect number. I
4:57
Speaker 1: just didn't see the Bengals losing by a field goal.
5:00
Speaker 1: And it really really was funny that like basically people
5:04
Speaker 1: online they're probably new to the show where they don't
5:06
Speaker 1: they're new to follow me on Twitter, and they're like
5:08
Speaker 1: coming at me, especially in my d M is like saying,
5:10
Speaker 1: like you seem like a phony, Like you seem what
5:12
Speaker 1: you don't know what you're talking about. This be four
5:13
Speaker 1: week one games, So like I'll never do this because
5:15
Speaker 1: like I'm not here to like put people out of
5:17
Speaker 1: work or like take people. People have jobs where they
5:20
Speaker 1: give out picks for a living, Like I already have
5:22
Speaker 1: my job. I don't need to do it on Twitter.
5:25
Speaker 1: But basically they're coming at me, So I just threw
5:27
Speaker 1: up three dogs. I like. I like the Jaguars money line.
5:30
Speaker 1: I like the football team's money line. I like the
5:32
Speaker 1: Jets money line. So obviously the Jets one didn't work out,
5:35
Speaker 1: but like no one, I don't think anyone else was
5:36
Speaker 1: throwing out the Jags money aline, and I just did
5:39
Speaker 1: just to shut the people up. It's like you don't
5:40
Speaker 1: get like I do this for a living, Like I
5:43
Speaker 1: don't just bet these lines just saying oh, yeah this
5:45
Speaker 1: might work out, Like yeah, no, I'm bending because I'm
5:47
Speaker 1: confident the number and the percentage is saying that there's
5:49
Speaker 1: value on that number. So it was pretty funny when
5:52
Speaker 1: I hit you up. I love the Jags, no joke,
5:54
Speaker 1: but I just thought the three and a half of
5:56
Speaker 1: the BEng was that was a great number. So the
5:58
Speaker 1: five and oh the only real sweat for us was
6:00
Speaker 1: that bangle. So I swore they're gonna go over time,
6:02
Speaker 1: and you know what happens, and over time we bet
6:04
Speaker 1: this competition. They throw up pick six, Joe bro whatever
6:07
Speaker 1: it is. We lose by six, though, So that was great.
6:09
Speaker 1: When that guy pulled up a ham and shank that.
6:12
Speaker 1: It was so stunning when he shank that kick, It
6:15
Speaker 1: was the end of that game was so bangles right.
6:17
Speaker 1: It was to get the offensive pass interference on a
6:21
Speaker 1: game winning touchdown, then to have the guy shank the
6:24
Speaker 1: kick for us. It worked out brilliantly, and I went
6:27
Speaker 1: through I did I did the gamblers math on the weekend. Um.
6:31
Speaker 1: I also had the Dolphins plus six and a half.
6:34
Speaker 1: Obviously Ryan Fitzpatrick throwing that interception of the end zone
6:38
Speaker 1: late in the game that could have been my garbage
6:40
Speaker 1: time TV backdoor, my TV backdoor cover. I had the
6:43
Speaker 1: Jets bills under thirty nine and a half, So obviously
6:48
Speaker 1: that last garbage touchdown for the Jets like crushed me.
6:51
Speaker 1: But you always forget, like you know, and we talked
6:53
Speaker 1: about it. Obviously, I got my Chicago hat on. I'm
6:55
Speaker 1: sit in front of my Bear's banner. I love Chicago teams,
6:59
Speaker 1: and um I had the Bears plus three, like thank
7:03
Speaker 1: god for DeAndre Swift. Like you always have to account for,
7:06
Speaker 1: like the ones that go your way and the ones
7:09
Speaker 1: that don't go your way. Right, we're still on the
7:11
Speaker 1: right number. We have, we both we talked, we had
7:13
Speaker 1: this podcast. It was plus three, so like when I
7:15
Speaker 1: bet that I plus three ticket, like I was sitting
7:17
Speaker 1: on that in the money line. Obviously got to take
7:19
Speaker 1: always take the money line when I had better dog,
7:21
Speaker 1: but the plus three, yeah, it was a sweats. Early
7:24
Speaker 1: on You're just like, oh my god, I bet I'm
7:26
Speaker 1: Mitch Drabski. Why did I do that? But then the
7:29
Speaker 1: lines lined it was just classic. Everything I said like math, Patricia,
7:33
Speaker 1: it's impossible to back this guy. It feels like this
7:35
Speaker 1: is just what he does. So that that was a
7:37
Speaker 1: great call, especially a lot of you guys. I knew
7:39
Speaker 1: you were saying, Chris at it and it's just a
7:42
Speaker 1: lot of people are on that number, and we were
7:44
Speaker 1: looking like idiots for about three quarters. Yeah, well you
7:48
Speaker 1: know we probably look like idiots for longer. The Bengals thing.
7:52
Speaker 1: You just said something really interesting. When you bet an underdog,
7:57
Speaker 1: you also bet the money line, explore. Yeah. So, so
8:02
Speaker 1: as someone asked me on Twitter about, like, because I
8:04
Speaker 1: put out all those dogs and the SF, I was
8:06
Speaker 1: betting the spread. So if you're a unit better, because
8:08
Speaker 1: I don't do units like my my bets are so weird,
8:11
Speaker 1: like I literally had a grand on the Jags money
8:13
Speaker 1: line in June, Like I just do weird bets earlier
8:16
Speaker 1: in the year when there's like value on the numbers.
8:19
Speaker 1: And I told him that if if you're a unit better,
8:23
Speaker 1: you basically put three units on the spread, so easy.
8:26
Speaker 1: One was a Cardinals. We gave that out at seven.
8:28
Speaker 1: They moved the six and a half. The money line
8:30
Speaker 1: I think was might have been two fifty UM. So
8:35
Speaker 1: that guy I told him he should bet like point
8:37
Speaker 1: five or point to five of a unit on the
8:39
Speaker 1: money line and then put three units on the number
8:42
Speaker 1: because more often than not, you're going to cover the dog.
8:45
Speaker 1: And then over time, especially if you do this long term,
8:49
Speaker 1: you have to bet on the money line the dog.
8:51
Speaker 1: There's just so much value in it. Like the Jags.
8:54
Speaker 1: I put a graind on it. I won three thousand,
8:56
Speaker 1: five hundred. I'm good now in the Jags money line
8:58
Speaker 1: for a while, Like that value is saying, because it's
9:01
Speaker 1: so it's so pumped up, and you're so I can
9:03
Speaker 1: lose the next two money line bets and the Jags
9:05
Speaker 1: I'm still have five bucks. So that's why you like
9:07
Speaker 1: to play the money line. It just accumulates your your funds,
9:11
Speaker 1: all right. So the only other thing is, like I
9:13
Speaker 1: will tell you Sunday mid day after the Jags game,
9:19
Speaker 1: I was like, I can't freaking believe we jumped off
9:23
Speaker 1: the Jacks, like we could be we could be four
9:26
Speaker 1: and oh right now, I don't know. We could have
9:29
Speaker 1: been three and o at that point and not but
9:31
Speaker 1: the Bengals, but it all worked out okay, and then yeah,
9:33
Speaker 1: that's what happens, right, Yeah, And then, Uh, the good
9:38
Speaker 1: news is we get the Bengals again. Let's go to
9:43
Speaker 1: the Thursday night game. We get the Bengals visiting the Browns.
9:47
Speaker 1: There are six point underdogs at our friends draft Kings.
9:53
Speaker 1: Right now, I'm gonna set Lana, a listener to the
9:57
Speaker 1: podcast who d M me and said she was so
10:00
Speaker 1: sad Scooch was leaving, but one of the things that
10:02
Speaker 1: she loved was giving the context of like where the
10:05
Speaker 1: bets are coming in, where the money is coming in,
10:07
Speaker 1: So I do want to spet Lana made a very
10:09
Speaker 1: good point. Uh, right now, the majority of the bets
10:14
Speaker 1: are coming in on the Bengals, but the majority of
10:16
Speaker 1: the money coming in on the Browns. Money usually means professionals,
10:21
Speaker 1: that usually means the public. So right now, to reiterate,
10:26
Speaker 1: the public is on the Bengals. The money the professionals
10:28
Speaker 1: are on the Browns. Brown's minus six. What say you, Simon? Right?
10:33
Speaker 1: This is a I mean classic Proverst Joe game. Just
10:36
Speaker 1: because the Bengals look good, they look like they deserve
10:38
Speaker 1: to win their game with the Browns just got embarrassed
10:41
Speaker 1: and smacked around by arguably a top two, top three
10:44
Speaker 1: team the NFL. So I got this a five and
10:47
Speaker 1: a half right when it came out on Someday night
10:49
Speaker 1: with the Browns. Uh. On these Thursday nights, unless it's
10:53
Speaker 1: two really good teams, you always take the crap your
10:57
Speaker 1: team at home on a Thursday night. I know it's
10:59
Speaker 1: different because is like a bus ride for Cincinnati and
11:01
Speaker 1: they're not really going on to flight. It's still a
11:04
Speaker 1: road game on a short week, and they played a tough,
11:07
Speaker 1: tough game with the Chargers and a lot of the
11:09
Speaker 1: things because we watched, we had we obviously had since
11:11
Speaker 1: he so I watched pretty much every second of that
11:13
Speaker 1: game and I rewatched it this morning, and that the scheme,
11:19
Speaker 1: the scheme the Bengals are running on defense was funny
11:22
Speaker 1: because they're they're kind of weak at these corner spots,
11:25
Speaker 1: so basically the Charges were just trying to hit them
11:29
Speaker 1: fast and outside. So they were really showing that the
11:33
Speaker 1: speed on the edges with running backs is what kind
11:35
Speaker 1: of the Achille heels to this Bengal team. And then
11:37
Speaker 1: they were hitting him up the middle every now, because
11:39
Speaker 1: there's no Geno Atkins, he's hurt. He might be back
11:41
Speaker 1: this week, which would affect me on the bentness. But
11:46
Speaker 1: every sign points to this is a really really good
11:48
Speaker 1: spot for Cleveland because I don't know if they're gonna
11:50
Speaker 1: trust Baker. I don't know if they're gonna let him
11:52
Speaker 1: throw it around. And with Burrow, I don't see him
11:55
Speaker 1: having a twenty point game, like he doesn't. He still
11:57
Speaker 1: seems uneasy. Even in that game he pulled it down
12:00
Speaker 1: and ran a lot. His first read is not there
12:02
Speaker 1: Brows just gonna pull it down a run because he's
12:04
Speaker 1: pretty athletic. So I like this Spott a lot for
12:07
Speaker 1: the Browns. But we can put that on the side
12:08
Speaker 1: because it is the Browns. It is the Browns. And
12:10
Speaker 1: also it's say, we're already not getting the best of
12:13
Speaker 1: the number, right it said five, you said you got
12:15
Speaker 1: it at five and a half. It's already it's already
12:18
Speaker 1: moved up to six. Uh. And I'm also not sure,
12:22
Speaker 1: like unless we love a Thursday night game, I hate
12:27
Speaker 1: the idea of going into the weekend, Like potentially, let
12:31
Speaker 1: me go back to something you just said, you said
12:33
Speaker 1: you rewatched that Chargers Bengals game this morning. How many
12:38
Speaker 1: how many games will you rewatch as you're prepping to
12:42
Speaker 1: make bets and things like that. I'm nuts, man, Like
12:45
Speaker 1: I literally went to bed probably midway through that Steelers game,
12:48
Speaker 1: and I get I gotta probably three in the morning.
12:50
Speaker 1: I did a bunch of stuff for this podcast again,
12:52
Speaker 1: the numbers ready, everything from the weekend, so I had
12:55
Speaker 1: the chart. I rewatched the end of the Steelers game,
12:57
Speaker 1: and then I watched the game after I watched in
13:00
Speaker 1: Denver Titans game just because I didn't couldn't watch last night.
13:03
Speaker 1: And then I did the Bengals, I did the Patriots,
13:07
Speaker 1: and then I did um the Eagles game before the show,
13:10
Speaker 1: so like I'll finish all that before this weekend. Um.
13:14
Speaker 1: But yeah, I just do to get a field for
13:15
Speaker 1: the schemes and the offenses because you can chart this stuff.
13:17
Speaker 1: A lot of people put it online. But if I
13:19
Speaker 1: feel more comfortable watching it because you can really see
13:21
Speaker 1: what players stand out in these different schemes and what
13:24
Speaker 1: players don't really fit it or they just they're they're
13:28
Speaker 1: not meant for that scheme. So you can get edges
13:29
Speaker 1: in different games. That way, got it? That's cool? And
13:32
Speaker 1: you'll watch every game like are you fast forwarding? Are
13:35
Speaker 1: you like watching the commercials? Like how do you do it? Uh?
13:39
Speaker 1: I mean depends like right now, I have um all
13:42
Speaker 1: twenty two, so like I can get through, I can
13:45
Speaker 1: break it all down and like they have it all
13:47
Speaker 1: just on there to the NFL so like as only
13:49
Speaker 1: like it's pretty easy to get that and if you're
13:51
Speaker 1: into football, it's worth the money. Um for me. I
13:57
Speaker 1: it all depends on the week. Like there's some game
14:00
Speaker 1: is where like you know what they are, like the Chiefs.
14:01
Speaker 1: I don't need to rewatch the Chiefs, right, Like we
14:03
Speaker 1: know what the Chiefs are. We all watched that game.
14:06
Speaker 1: But there's other teams that are new offenses, new schemes
14:08
Speaker 1: that like I watched their games of the early weeks
14:10
Speaker 1: or two or three times different games. Well, this is
14:13
Speaker 1: an really interesting week. So the other theme for this
14:16
Speaker 1: week and uh our friends Colin Wilson and Stucky talked
14:20
Speaker 1: about this in the Action Network podcasts that came out
14:23
Speaker 1: on Monday. They're Amazing Weekend Review Monday Night Preview. They
14:28
Speaker 1: review both college and NFL games and then talk about
14:31
Speaker 1: the Monday Night game. But they talked about how like
14:35
Speaker 1: this will be a bylow cell high weekend, right, there
14:38
Speaker 1: will be so many teams that we're gonna talk about them,
14:41
Speaker 1: like the Rams visiting the Eagles or this Brown's Bengals game.
14:45
Speaker 1: We're like, you can all of a sudden get numbers
14:48
Speaker 1: that are different than you would normally get because after
14:50
Speaker 1: week one, everybody who one in week one is amazing
14:52
Speaker 1: and everyone who lost in week one is terrible. Right, Like,
14:56
Speaker 1: this is like as good at betting week as there
14:58
Speaker 1: could possibly be in the NFL. And you would hope
15:01
Speaker 1: it that because it's the pretty much the norm most years.
15:04
Speaker 1: All you do is you fade week one. It's usually
15:07
Speaker 1: gonna work out for you. There's gonna be teams you
15:09
Speaker 1: need to take stuff away from where it's like, Okay,
15:11
Speaker 1: this team is for real, like the Cardinals. They might
15:13
Speaker 1: be for real, but there's other teams that got wins
15:16
Speaker 1: w re you go. You know, I need them to
15:17
Speaker 1: see I need to see more. I don't know if
15:19
Speaker 1: they're really this legit. I think it was just a
15:21
Speaker 1: good matchup. So that's what's so funny about week two.
15:23
Speaker 1: You start building up this database. Alright, let's get into
15:26
Speaker 1: week two. Now, we're gonna go to the one o'clock games.
15:31
Speaker 1: First one in the docket. Jack's visiting Tennessee. Tennessee is
15:36
Speaker 1: a nine point favorite from our friends and DraftKings it's
15:39
Speaker 1: a little too early to give any sort of credence
15:43
Speaker 1: to the bet percentage of money percentages right now, just
15:47
Speaker 1: because Tennessee just ended last night and not a lot
15:49
Speaker 1: of bets in the game yet um overwhelmingly money and
15:53
Speaker 1: bet percentages coming in on Jacksonville at plus nine. And
15:59
Speaker 1: it's funny where I got Jags like, like I said
16:03
Speaker 1: on Twitter, I gave out like months ago, like bets
16:05
Speaker 1: I like for week one, and I gave out the
16:07
Speaker 1: Jags ten and a half. And this is classic overreaction
16:12
Speaker 1: where the the Jags and annoying they shouldn't have won
16:14
Speaker 1: that game. The reason they won that game against the
16:16
Speaker 1: Colts because Philip Rivers is Philip Rivers, I said months ago.
16:19
Speaker 1: The guy's cooked. He's cooked. So the public's coming in
16:22
Speaker 1: and saying, look at all this value on the Jags
16:25
Speaker 1: against the tightens team that didn't look that good against
16:27
Speaker 1: the Broncos. They're kicker, missed all these field goals, they
16:31
Speaker 1: won by two at the very end, they're they're not
16:33
Speaker 1: that good. Where there's tons and tons of value on
16:36
Speaker 1: the Titans. Here where they're what they do well the
16:38
Speaker 1: Titans is run the ball. Derrick Kennedy, the biggest weakness
16:40
Speaker 1: of this Jacks team is running. They the cults. If
16:43
Speaker 1: they didn't let Rivers throw the ball that entire game,
16:45
Speaker 1: they would have won that game. But they didn't. They
16:48
Speaker 1: went away from I don't know Frank Wright was doing,
16:50
Speaker 1: but I like them. I like the value on the Titans,
16:54
Speaker 1: But I don't know if you want to put them
16:56
Speaker 1: in the competition, because it is honest. Nine. So I
16:59
Speaker 1: I like everything you're saying, And to me, it a
17:03
Speaker 1: hundred percent is a Bilo scenario. Well, nine feels like
17:07
Speaker 1: a big number. Look, we liked the Ravens at eight
17:10
Speaker 1: last week against the Browns. Um we liked the Chiefs
17:15
Speaker 1: as relatively big touchdown favorites, big favorites against the Texans. Like,
17:19
Speaker 1: I'm not that concerned about the number, especially against the
17:22
Speaker 1: team like the Jags. Everyone like this game opened at eleven,
17:26
Speaker 1: you know, so like it's already gone down two points
17:29
Speaker 1: just off of the the preseason opener, just based on
17:33
Speaker 1: what we saw the last twenty four hours. So I
17:35
Speaker 1: don't hate it. I think it's a it's a let's uh,
17:39
Speaker 1: it's a question mark game for me. Right now. We
17:40
Speaker 1: gotta think about it. We gotta go through the rest
17:42
Speaker 1: of the doctor, because there might be better, bigger sort
17:44
Speaker 1: of bilo sell high opportunities, there might be better value.
17:48
Speaker 1: This was one where like because we had the Steelers
17:51
Speaker 1: in the contest. Uh, you know, I got home from
17:53
Speaker 1: surgery yesterday at like five, and like when you come
17:56
Speaker 1: home from a surgery, like you're still so groggy from
18:00
Speaker 1: anesthesia that you can barely function right, And so I'm
18:04
Speaker 1: in bed, my contacts are out. I've got to get
18:07
Speaker 1: the Steelers game on, but it's almost like I'm listening
18:10
Speaker 1: to it like the radio. And so I tried to
18:14
Speaker 1: keep track of that just because I knew we needed
18:15
Speaker 1: that game. At the time the Titans and the Broncos played,
18:18
Speaker 1: I was cooked, so I was done. So I have
18:20
Speaker 1: no idea what happened in that game other than the
18:22
Speaker 1: end knowing that I had the Broncos plus three, so
18:25
Speaker 1: it worked out for me. Um, But I can't tell
18:28
Speaker 1: you anything about this Titans team right now. Yeah, because
18:31
Speaker 1: I rewatched. I mean that it was just sloppy both sides.
18:34
Speaker 1: I'm honestly, Locke looked good at at there's moments where
18:38
Speaker 1: he looked really good, like he's got a good arm,
18:40
Speaker 1: and there's other times where he looks like he's still
18:42
Speaker 1: a rookie, like he's making really dumb decisions. And the Titans,
18:46
Speaker 1: they were in the red zone a bunch and it
18:47
Speaker 1: kicked a lot of field goals. So it was one
18:49
Speaker 1: of those where a lot everything was going wrong for
18:52
Speaker 1: the Titans and they still got the win even though
18:53
Speaker 1: the kicker was trying to sabotage them. So there's good
18:56
Speaker 1: value here, but we can keep we can keep it moving.
18:59
Speaker 1: DraftKings has Bears at five and a half over the
19:01
Speaker 1: Giants visiting Soldier Field right now. The money is coming
19:06
Speaker 1: in on the Bears. I'm sorry, the money is coming
19:09
Speaker 1: in on the Giants, and the tickets are coming in
19:11
Speaker 1: on the Giants in a very large numbers. I would
19:15
Speaker 1: agree with that side. Yeah, it feels like a big number.
19:20
Speaker 1: But I think it's one of those where people still
19:24
Speaker 1: don't trust the miss I mean, how can you that
19:25
Speaker 1: that was such a can't You really can't. And it's
19:29
Speaker 1: it's terrifying that I love the Bears here because everything
19:34
Speaker 1: I saw the Giants do against us here is what
19:35
Speaker 1: I predicted. I knew their offensive line was gonna struggle
19:38
Speaker 1: and I knew their defense was gonna show because they've
19:39
Speaker 1: had they had the one guy get cut for all
19:42
Speaker 1: those everything I went on. I think his name was
19:44
Speaker 1: Budda Baker or something Baker umdre right. They're they're hurting
19:50
Speaker 1: the Bears. They're hurting in the secondary. So once again
19:54
Speaker 1: we can stay away from because it's a howerk pick
19:56
Speaker 1: for you. But in my like in my gambling personal life,
19:58
Speaker 1: I'm gonna be on the Bears again that this week. Well,
20:01
Speaker 1: tell me something, right now, do you feel that strongly
20:03
Speaker 1: about them? Like, forget about the fact I've got a
20:07
Speaker 1: Bear's banner over my shoulder and I'm wearing I'm wearing
20:10
Speaker 1: a hat that has the Chicago flag on it. Like,
20:14
Speaker 1: would this be a top five pick for you? No? Okay,
20:21
Speaker 1: I really can't believe you broke your thumb having a
20:23
Speaker 1: catch with your son. You're such a narrow man. I
20:27
Speaker 1: prefer to think of it as being a good father,
20:29
Speaker 1: that's true. I also I broke my pinky playing basketball
20:34
Speaker 1: with him, so maybe I just shouldn't be playing sports anymore.
20:40
Speaker 1: The thing is, simon, honest to god, I'm an amazing athlete.
20:46
Speaker 1: I'm such a good athlete it's frightening. I have great
20:50
Speaker 1: form when I when I was growing up and I
20:52
Speaker 1: went to basketball camp. Uh we were doing a film
20:55
Speaker 1: session and the coach once said, I'm stopping this film
20:59
Speaker 1: session right now. Chad Melman has the best form of
21:01
Speaker 1: anyone in this camp. And it was like all high
21:03
Speaker 1: school kids. And then it was out. It wasn't like
21:06
Speaker 1: the Winds of Wisconsin. And we were invited to play
21:10
Speaker 1: the DePaul Blue Demons basketball camp. And I was invited
21:14
Speaker 1: to play. And I went to the camp and it
21:18
Speaker 1: was Ray Meyer, who had been the coach of DePaul
21:21
Speaker 1: for like fifty years, and like you know, he recruited
21:24
Speaker 1: every great DePaul player in the sixties, seventies and eighties.
21:27
Speaker 1: Then his son Joey took over and they were on
21:30
Speaker 1: the sidelines and it was my high school basketball coach.
21:33
Speaker 1: And at the end of the game, I was shooting
21:34
Speaker 1: free throws to keep it close, and I sank both
21:37
Speaker 1: free throws at De Paul's court with all the DePaul
21:41
Speaker 1: students like Camper sitting around, and Uh, I ran back
21:45
Speaker 1: on defense and I saw the coaches all just standing
21:48
Speaker 1: there with their arms crossed, shaking their head up and down,
21:50
Speaker 1: nodding approvenly, really slowly, and I thought to myself. I'm
21:54
Speaker 1: going to DePaul. I'm gonna be like the sharpshooter who
21:58
Speaker 1: comes off the bench and makes threes at de Paul.
22:01
Speaker 1: I think people listen to this podcast. No one here
22:03
Speaker 1: is shocked that you peaked when you were thirteen years old. Chat.
22:06
Speaker 1: Oh my gosh, Simon, I cannot believe you're coming after
22:09
Speaker 1: me like that and it was fourteen years old. That's
22:13
Speaker 1: what the fans want. It is it is, It's exactly
22:17
Speaker 1: what they want. You're right, you're gonna read in their reviews.
22:19
Speaker 1: So let's stay away from the Bears. That's the point,
22:23
Speaker 1: all right, Dallas said. Dallas is hosting Atlanta. Dallas looks
22:28
Speaker 1: like cold on Dallas looks like a four and a
22:31
Speaker 1: half point favorite here. Um, Atlanta getting the tickets, Dallas
22:35
Speaker 1: getting the money too easy. I gotta go Dallas here.
22:38
Speaker 1: I love and I know people are gonna say, well,
22:40
Speaker 1: you guys are taking a lot of favorites. I just
22:42
Speaker 1: love Dallas here. This is such a good spot, good
22:44
Speaker 1: number their weapons. It's the same thing like last last
22:48
Speaker 1: week with the Seahawks. I remember you were saying how
22:50
Speaker 1: that was the classic proversh show game and all the
22:52
Speaker 1: pros were gonna be on Atlanta, and that's like we
22:55
Speaker 1: were saying, that's the old school thinking, where no pros
22:57
Speaker 1: are gonna go where the value is, and there was
22:59
Speaker 1: tons of value and Hawks with the way they lined
23:01
Speaker 1: up against Atlanta, and the same goes this week with Dallas.
23:04
Speaker 1: This could be a shootout. That's the only thing that
23:06
Speaker 1: gives me a pause is that we could be sweating
23:09
Speaker 1: here at the end, because no one does it better
23:11
Speaker 1: than Matt Ryan and junk Time. But I do like
23:14
Speaker 1: the Cowboys here. I got this number at seven for
23:16
Speaker 1: them and it's down to five, four and a half.
23:18
Speaker 1: Oh Jesus, that's a no brainer then for me, Like
23:21
Speaker 1: I'm happy to bet on the Cowboys. Actually think they
23:24
Speaker 1: had a really good shot to win the other night,
23:26
Speaker 1: and that O p I at the end of the
23:27
Speaker 1: game probably cost them the game because it clearly was
23:31
Speaker 1: a junk call and Jalalen Ramsey sold it. But they
23:34
Speaker 1: had so many opportunities to win that game. And I
23:37
Speaker 1: thought after the Rams sort of came out shooting in
23:40
Speaker 1: the very beginning, they completely started to shut them down,
23:44
Speaker 1: and you know, they couldn't get their offense going very well.
23:46
Speaker 1: Aaron Donald was a machine the Falcons do not have
23:50
Speaker 1: an Aaron Donald and Matt Ryan. Meanwhile, all of a sudden,
23:54
Speaker 1: he's top eight in career passing yuards. Has there been
23:58
Speaker 1: a quieter, more irrelevant and passing yardage leader in the
24:02
Speaker 1: history of the NFL then Matt Ryan. I don't even
24:05
Speaker 1: know if the guy makes it the Hall of Fame
24:06
Speaker 1: top ten all time pastor will not make the whole fame. Yeah,
24:10
Speaker 1: it's honestly because the times we're inning, the weapons he had,
24:12
Speaker 1: like he literally came in the league with studd receivers,
24:15
Speaker 1: Roddy White, feels like a lifetime ago. That guy was
24:17
Speaker 1: the number one in the league for I don't know,
24:19
Speaker 1: seven years. And it's funny. He's he's actually local to me.
24:24
Speaker 1: He's from Penn Charter, so he's kind of a legend
24:26
Speaker 1: around here, Matt Ryan. And it's funny seeing him now
24:31
Speaker 1: all these years, like he's still in the league, he's
24:32
Speaker 1: still put up all the yards, but he just never wins.
24:35
Speaker 1: He's just every year they're eight and eight, nine and seven.
24:37
Speaker 1: That's just what he is. It's he's he's Maddie mediocre.
24:44
Speaker 1: That was funny. You didn't laugh, No, I didn't, m
24:51
Speaker 1: damn it all right, Wow, it's like Scooch never left.
24:56
Speaker 1: I'm I'm tough to make laugh chat. I'll be honest, funny,
24:59
Speaker 1: like I was probably the his person in high school
25:01
Speaker 1: and now I'm just a loser, so it's stuff to
25:02
Speaker 1: make me laugh. So you're saying you peaked in high school. Oh,
25:07
Speaker 1: I definitely peaked in high school, buddy, no doubt about that.
25:09
Speaker 1: How does it feel? It feels good Like people and
25:12
Speaker 1: I tell them we're pro better, like, oh, that's so cool.
25:14
Speaker 1: I'm like, it's not. You should you should hear you
25:16
Speaker 1: about my high school days. I'm back in high school
25:19
Speaker 1: before I started working for the Real Word for what
25:22
Speaker 1: wait was it when it was Jersey Shore? The Jersey Shore. Yeah, man,
25:25
Speaker 1: that was my first like real job. I don't know
25:29
Speaker 1: if people know that full story. Give him five minutes
25:31
Speaker 1: of that story, five minutes. I went down the beach
25:35
Speaker 1: as most nineteen year olds due to try to go
25:37
Speaker 1: to a party because it's not legal to drink. So
25:39
Speaker 1: I'm trying to go like, you know, adult house party
25:41
Speaker 1: that a girl I knew, And I'm there and I'm
25:43
Speaker 1: chatting a guy up that's in like a red T
25:45
Speaker 1: shirt that has the Phillies on it, and we're just
25:47
Speaker 1: talking because the Phillies were good back then, and we're
25:50
Speaker 1: talking about and he goes, you seem like a cool kid.
25:51
Speaker 1: You want a job this summer, So what kind of job?
25:54
Speaker 1: And he's like, oh, like, we're doing a showdown here.
25:56
Speaker 1: You should come work on it. So I give him
25:59
Speaker 1: my email address. I wake up the next morning, I'll
26:01
Speaker 1: home go over to like ten emails to get to
26:03
Speaker 1: this address. And I get there and it's some rinky
26:06
Speaker 1: like motel and there's like camera equipment coming in and out,
26:09
Speaker 1: and I thought I was at a port of shoot.
26:11
Speaker 1: I go, what the hell did this guy just sent
26:13
Speaker 1: me to? And I go in the room and sure enough,
26:16
Speaker 1: it's like boxes of paper, all this like all this
26:20
Speaker 1: legal stuff, all these cameras, everything. And she tells me, yeah,
26:23
Speaker 1: we're doing a show called Shore Party down here. Would
26:26
Speaker 1: you are you? Like, you're here to get a job
26:27
Speaker 1: as at P And I go, yeah, I guess I'll
26:29
Speaker 1: sign up. So I did the first season at Jersey Shore,
26:32
Speaker 1: and then I went back to college because I thought
26:34
Speaker 1: it was nothing, you know, I thought it was not
26:35
Speaker 1: going to really make it. And sure enough I got
26:38
Speaker 1: us give us a call and said, no, we're doing
26:39
Speaker 1: a second season. So that's that's how I got into
26:41
Speaker 1: the Jersey Shore as a nineteen year old. All right,
26:44
Speaker 1: we'll save more for next time because I think there's
26:47
Speaker 1: more stories to tell. Their Steelers way over inflated seven
26:51
Speaker 1: and a half on DraftKings against the Broncos in Pittsburgh.
26:56
Speaker 1: This is a weird one because the money and the
26:57
Speaker 1: tickets are flowing in on the Steelers. Is it crazy
27:02
Speaker 1: for me to say that I like the Broncos here?
27:05
Speaker 1: I love the Broncos in the sense that this is
27:07
Speaker 1: a great spot for them. All the values is gonna
27:08
Speaker 1: be on Pittsburgh and this is a good letdown spot
27:11
Speaker 1: for for Pittsburgh. We also a big bend needed about
27:14
Speaker 1: a half there to really get it going. Like if
27:16
Speaker 1: they didn't get that turnover in the first half, Pittsburgh,
27:20
Speaker 1: but they probably would have not lost that game, but
27:22
Speaker 1: Giants would have had a way better shot of covering
27:24
Speaker 1: that number. Uh, that's funny you said the money is on.
27:28
Speaker 1: I guess it must have came in early in the
27:29
Speaker 1: six and a half. Now it's all up the seven half.
27:31
Speaker 1: I can't see a pro hitting that number. Um. Yeah,
27:35
Speaker 1: all the values definitely the Bronchos, but I wouldn't put
27:37
Speaker 1: them in the competition. I don't know if Lock can
27:40
Speaker 1: really show off against that defense. I can't get over.
27:42
Speaker 1: I'll get that. Pittsburgh's defenses, Oh my god, they were insane.
27:46
Speaker 1: They were insane. Like all I think all I heard
27:50
Speaker 1: them talk about last night was Bubba Dupree. Honestly, guy
27:54
Speaker 1: was everywhere. And it's funny because all you could see
27:56
Speaker 1: their whole line shifts the wat side and then you
27:59
Speaker 1: just see him come from me a side. Do pree
28:00
Speaker 1: that you had to have one on one one where
28:02
Speaker 1: they try to bring a running back on. He was
28:03
Speaker 1: beating them both. He really was showcasing last night. All right,
28:07
Speaker 1: let's get that one. Then Vikings colds Vikings plus three.
28:11
Speaker 1: Uh visiting Indianapolis. This is a I mean, this is
28:16
Speaker 1: exactly what we're talking about, right, Like, you've got two teams.
28:20
Speaker 1: And by the way, the money's coming in on Indianapolis
28:23
Speaker 1: very slightly, the money of the bets coming in on
28:29
Speaker 1: the Vikings. That's that's actually shocking. How many people are
28:33
Speaker 1: back in Kirk Yeah, I mean it's it's true. Rivers.
28:37
Speaker 1: Rivers literally tanked that game. He was terrible. Um, I'm
28:43
Speaker 1: uneasy about it because that's a good number, the minus three,
28:46
Speaker 1: But like I personally will be back in the culture
28:49
Speaker 1: that that's a no brainers the home team that got
28:52
Speaker 1: embarrassed on the road. So I don't want I don't
28:57
Speaker 1: want to put the competition. No, I can't back forth
28:59
Speaker 1: Rivers yet. I can't back Philip Rivers at all. I
29:01
Speaker 1: can't believe you'd even bet him outright outside of the
29:05
Speaker 1: competition like that, to me, is your professional better betting
29:08
Speaker 1: and number? You're not. You're not looking at this as
29:11
Speaker 1: sort of a and an advantage Colts, You're looking this
29:15
Speaker 1: as a value play. Yeah, match up, because I do.
29:18
Speaker 1: I do think the Colds their defense. I know Minshew
29:20
Speaker 1: had a good game, but a lot of that was
29:22
Speaker 1: short field because of Philip Rivers. Uh. I just like
29:27
Speaker 1: all the matchups for the Cold side of the Vikings
29:29
Speaker 1: and Lakings are a little banged up to on defense
29:31
Speaker 1: and that really I mean Aaron Rodgers tore the him up,
29:34
Speaker 1: but he looked like he was twenty five again, So
29:36
Speaker 1: I do like the Colds here. We also wonder like
29:39
Speaker 1: how many of the Vikings had so many changes on defense,
29:42
Speaker 1: Like when will that start to correct itself. Right when
29:47
Speaker 1: when does Mike Zimmer sort of figure out, Okay, this
29:49
Speaker 1: is what I can do with this system, now, this
29:51
Speaker 1: is what I can do with this personnel in what scheme.
29:53
Speaker 1: They just might need three or four weeks to get better.
29:56
Speaker 1: And kind of like I'm in a like text chain
29:58
Speaker 1: with a bunch of other pros. They were just talking
30:00
Speaker 1: about how this is truly is a preseason with US Football,
30:03
Speaker 1: Like the next four weeks, especially for these young teams,
30:05
Speaker 1: this is a preseason. These coaches need to see looks
30:08
Speaker 1: and see what these guys can do, because it's hard
30:10
Speaker 1: to really know that when you're going against your own
30:12
Speaker 1: team all the time. Oh boy, the Bucks are nine
30:17
Speaker 1: and a half point favorites against the Carolina Panthers. This
30:22
Speaker 1: is a game right now. You've got bets coming in
30:25
Speaker 1: on the money coming in on the Panthers. Bets just
30:29
Speaker 1: a slight percentage. Again, it's still Tuesday, coming in on
30:34
Speaker 1: the Bucks. Dude, the Panthers. This feels like a spot
30:38
Speaker 1: for the Panthers. It does if it feels like a
30:43
Speaker 1: good number, especially that we're watching that Bucks game. We
30:47
Speaker 1: saw how not in tune Brady was with his receivers
30:50
Speaker 1: and how he just looks old like that was. I
30:53
Speaker 1: saw the statistic, like we talked, I think last week
30:56
Speaker 1: there's only been eight starts by quarterbacks that are forty
30:59
Speaker 1: three in the league. Says, So you just got the
31:01
Speaker 1: knife one last night. The other night, we saw how
31:04
Speaker 1: that worked out for him. Even though every people say
31:06
Speaker 1: the Saints are one of the better teams in the
31:08
Speaker 1: entire league, but they dominated him. They could have beat
31:11
Speaker 1: them by more. And I like this number here with
31:13
Speaker 1: the Panthers because like we saw from that Raider's game,
31:16
Speaker 1: the Panthers they can throw with anybody. They got weapons
31:18
Speaker 1: on that offense. So yeah, their defenses are absolutely horrible
31:21
Speaker 1: the Panthers, but I think they're offense. Canna keep them
31:23
Speaker 1: in this game with that number? Do we like it?
31:27
Speaker 1: It feels like yeah, I like it to bet it?
31:31
Speaker 1: What do we like it to put in the contest?
31:34
Speaker 1: I like the only thing that's making me nerves, like
31:35
Speaker 1: giving me any type of pause it is Brady after
31:38
Speaker 1: getting embarrassed the day before. Like I know, he's not
31:41
Speaker 1: the Patriots. That's what's so hard with it. It's like
31:43
Speaker 1: if he's on the Patriots, this is an auto play
31:45
Speaker 1: with Brady, but he's not, so that's it gives you pause, Goes,
31:49
Speaker 1: I don't know how he's gonna react to it. I
31:51
Speaker 1: don't know. I don't know how he's gonna feel about that.
31:53
Speaker 1: So the only thing it makes me nervous, I'll putting
31:55
Speaker 1: the competition, all right. So right now for the competition,
31:57
Speaker 1: we are both locked on dalla us at minus four
32:02
Speaker 1: and a half right now. Um, they're gonna be hosting
32:05
Speaker 1: the Falcons. We like that a lot. Uh, And we
32:10
Speaker 1: may like the Titans and minus nine against the Jags,
32:15
Speaker 1: but we're gonna put a pin in that kind of
32:18
Speaker 1: like my thumb, and then we're gonna see if we
32:21
Speaker 1: like any other games better. Um, we've got the Browns
32:27
Speaker 1: and the Browns and the Bears are maybe still right,
32:30
Speaker 1: the Browns and the Bears. You want to keep the
32:32
Speaker 1: Browns is and maybe two Okay, I know you hate it.
32:35
Speaker 1: It's just it's just such a good spot. Alright, alright, alright, alright, alright. Uh,
32:41
Speaker 1: Bill's Dolphins bills minus five and a half at DraftKings
32:45
Speaker 1: visiting Miami. Uh, boatload of money, boatload of tickets coming
32:51
Speaker 1: in on Buffalo and it's another spots as a pro
32:58
Speaker 1: You gotta love divisional game. Gotta take the Dolphins your
33:01
Speaker 1: home dog divisional game and they'll have fans there. And
33:05
Speaker 1: the Bills. They played well against the Jets for about
33:09
Speaker 1: a half, and they really were slopping the second half.
33:11
Speaker 1: Josh Allen, I'm trying to think of statistic. I think
33:15
Speaker 1: he was twelve or eight teen on play action and
33:17
Speaker 1: he was really on the money. So it's nice to
33:20
Speaker 1: see them really incorporating then. And he's doing a lot
33:21
Speaker 1: of bootlegs where he's going outside and he's running with it.
33:25
Speaker 1: But everything's points to the Dolphins here where this is
33:27
Speaker 1: a good bounce back game. They should have covered last game.
33:29
Speaker 1: They had a bunch of little flute things and I
33:32
Speaker 1: guess not because fits magic is gonna fits magic. But
33:35
Speaker 1: this could this could be one of those games where
33:36
Speaker 1: he really comes out. So I do like the Dolphins here.
33:40
Speaker 1: I do too. I like him a lot here like this.
33:43
Speaker 1: This is one of the imedately It immediately jumped at me.
33:47
Speaker 1: Is a Bilow cell high because everyone saw the Bills
33:50
Speaker 1: beat up on a horrible Jets team. And you know,
33:53
Speaker 1: I contend like most people aren't like you and me.
33:55
Speaker 1: They're not watching every game would you and I are,
33:59
Speaker 1: and to know that the paths sort of they needed
34:03
Speaker 1: a lot of sort of help to get to that.
34:08
Speaker 1: And if not for fits magic, fits magic ng in
34:11
Speaker 1: the end zone at the end of the game, Fits magic,
34:15
Speaker 1: magic Magic, the Dolphins easily cover that game. And that's
34:20
Speaker 1: what this game has in store in Miami. Like the
34:25
Speaker 1: it's a fifty fifty shot every single time that Ryan
34:30
Speaker 1: Fitzpatrick gets you the back door cover always. He's always alive,
34:35
Speaker 1: all right, So Miami five and a half is on
34:37
Speaker 1: the board for us. Let's do it done. Uh Niners,
34:42
Speaker 1: Jets Jets plus seven Jets are Nobody likes the Jets.
34:46
Speaker 1: Not a single person likes the Jets except maybe you.
34:54
Speaker 1: Usually I would. This would be a classic spot for
34:57
Speaker 1: the pros verse Joe's I'm gonna ride with all all
35:00
Speaker 1: the like Joe Paublic here just because it's it's everything
35:04
Speaker 1: that Same Fran is doing really well. It's really what
35:08
Speaker 1: the Jets do bad. I mean their offensive line. That
35:10
Speaker 1: Jets throw a bunch of new guys. We saw what
35:13
Speaker 1: the Bills Bills defense did to their own line. So
35:16
Speaker 1: San Fran arguably the best the line of football. And
35:18
Speaker 1: now I was gonna tee off on these guys in
35:20
Speaker 1: the Jets. This is number that's moved. It was opened
35:24
Speaker 1: at minus six and people must have just been hitting it.
35:26
Speaker 1: Now it's up to seven. So the value is all
35:28
Speaker 1: gone there for us in this competition. I do like
35:30
Speaker 1: the San France I got it at eight and a half.
35:34
Speaker 1: Oh boy. So speaking of value, if we're talking about
35:38
Speaker 1: bilow so high, if you and I are not on
35:40
Speaker 1: the same side of this game, I will be shocked.
35:43
Speaker 1: Are you ready ready? Rams one and a half point
35:47
Speaker 1: favorites visiting the Eagles. Yeah. It's funny because on this
35:54
Speaker 1: podcast I said I'd like the Eagles, and then on
35:56
Speaker 1: Twitter I gave out the football team's money line, and
35:59
Speaker 1: it would just be because when Lane Johnson was out
36:01
Speaker 1: and Miles Sanders is out, I just didn't see how
36:03
Speaker 1: they're gonna be able to kill the clock at the
36:05
Speaker 1: end of the game when they had to lead, or
36:07
Speaker 1: how they're gonna stop the d line of the the
36:10
Speaker 1: football team. So this is one of these things where
36:14
Speaker 1: the Eagles will have to wait and see if Lane
36:16
Speaker 1: comes back, if Miles comes back. This is an automatic play.
36:20
Speaker 1: Everyone in the world is gonna be on the Rams.
36:23
Speaker 1: This whenever you have a team that wins on prime
36:27
Speaker 1: time the following week, unless that team is really top tier,
36:30
Speaker 1: top five team, they're not gonna win a cover again.
36:33
Speaker 1: They're gonna They're gonna lose, just because that's such a
36:35
Speaker 1: letdown game after having such a big win the following Sunday.
36:39
Speaker 1: So I like, I like the Eagles here for us,
36:42
Speaker 1: but we can put on the side just and wait
36:44
Speaker 1: until Sunday we see what the injury report is for them.
36:49
Speaker 1: I have it. I have it on the sideline here. Uh,
36:51
Speaker 1: let's see the last of the one o'clock games before
36:54
Speaker 1: we get to the four o'clock games East Coast time.
36:57
Speaker 1: Lions visiting the Packers. Lions plus six right now on DraftKings,
37:03
Speaker 1: money and tickets both coming in on the Packers. Oh brother,
37:10
Speaker 1: all the value in the world is on the lines.
37:12
Speaker 1: This is this is an easy play too. Obviously. I
37:14
Speaker 1: don't want to put in a competition because I hate
37:16
Speaker 1: Matt Patricia, but this is a great, great number, especially
37:20
Speaker 1: if it's at six now to take the lines and
37:21
Speaker 1: want to take their money line because Green Bay, Yeah,
37:25
Speaker 1: they looked like rock stars there against Minnesota. I think
37:28
Speaker 1: that was just more about Minnesota's deficiencies where the Lions
37:33
Speaker 1: they played really well for three quarters against the barriers,
37:37
Speaker 1: it just kind of snowballed on them, where everything just
37:39
Speaker 1: started going wrong on a really short amount of time.
37:42
Speaker 1: So this is a really really good spot to buy
37:44
Speaker 1: alow on the lines. Yeah, I agree. I mean, obviously
37:47
Speaker 1: I watched a ton of that Lions game. They looked fantastic,
37:49
Speaker 1: and honestly, DeAndre Swift just dropped the ball in the
37:53
Speaker 1: end zone like it couldn't have been really, it was
37:55
Speaker 1: in his hands, it was in his hands. He turned
37:59
Speaker 1: his head around and just completely dropped the ball. Uh
38:03
Speaker 1: and thank god, Like, oh my god, the screaming happening
38:06
Speaker 1: in my house. Uh, talk about in school learning. My
38:09
Speaker 1: kid was getting a serious education in the F word.
38:13
Speaker 1: But that was, like Simon left, that was that was
38:19
Speaker 1: just amazing. It's amazing. It was amazing. That's why we
38:23
Speaker 1: love football. It is. It's it's why we love betting,
38:27
Speaker 1: the heartbreak and the happiness. Alright, everybody remind a review
38:31
Speaker 1: the podcast using the phrase Simon says, let's go undefeated
38:34
Speaker 1: and if we like it and randomly choose it, you
38:36
Speaker 1: will win a free action network. COULDI um will announce
38:40
Speaker 1: last week's winner at the end of the show. But
38:43
Speaker 1: first let's get to the late games. And the late
38:47
Speaker 1: games include the Washington football team visiting the team that
38:51
Speaker 1: I hope nobody ever catches up on, which is the
38:55
Speaker 1: Arizona Cardinals, who are now six and a half point favorites.
38:58
Speaker 1: Is open at six. I've seen it in some places
39:01
Speaker 1: at seven. Um boy, like that Cardinal You and I
39:05
Speaker 1: You and I love that Cardinals game from the beginning.
39:07
Speaker 1: Money and tickets right now both coming in on the Cardinals.
39:10
Speaker 1: So I gotta tell you, I love the Cardinals. But
39:13
Speaker 1: I think by the time we want to put our
39:15
Speaker 1: bets in, which is gonna be Saturday or Sunday, like,
39:18
Speaker 1: the value is going to be wake on the line
39:20
Speaker 1: will have gone up so much on this game. Yeah.
39:22
Speaker 1: If Draft Kings keeps it at six and a half,
39:25
Speaker 1: that's what it's at right now in their site, that's
39:27
Speaker 1: an auto play. I love. I think we gave it
39:30
Speaker 1: out at fifty or fifty one the Cardinals way way
39:33
Speaker 1: way early, and we didn't. I bought it. Yeah, And
39:38
Speaker 1: like you said, it's just one of those we're betting
39:40
Speaker 1: on a player making a second year leap, and I
39:42
Speaker 1: love Murray. So here I have this game and nine
39:45
Speaker 1: and a half, so even if it goes to seven,
39:48
Speaker 1: we can put on the side it's it's one of
39:49
Speaker 1: those I'd be willing to put it in because I
39:51
Speaker 1: love the value everything I watched and that Washington Eagles game,
39:55
Speaker 1: not that it was a fluke. They played well. They
39:58
Speaker 1: schemed it really well, especially second half. The way they
40:00
Speaker 1: played the Eagles was really smart. That's such a classic,
40:03
Speaker 1: really bad team winning their first game for the new
40:06
Speaker 1: coach and the next week just absolutely letdown. Well look
40:11
Speaker 1: at also they're on the road playing against it. To me,
40:14
Speaker 1: like Carson Wentz is not that dynamic of a quarterback
40:17
Speaker 1: and now, and he clearly didn't have weapons, Whereas you're
40:20
Speaker 1: going to Arizona, you've got an incredibly dynamic quarterback and
40:24
Speaker 1: you've got an incredibly talented receiving corps like DeAndre Hopkins
40:28
Speaker 1: is just for real, right anything, any situation he's in,
40:31
Speaker 1: he's going to thrive. And also that defense for the
40:34
Speaker 1: Cardinals is so freaking fast, like they're going sideline to sideline,
40:38
Speaker 1: and you could see that against the Niners, like they
40:40
Speaker 1: had a hard time finding the edge against that team
40:42
Speaker 1: in the running game. So I'm with you. I guess,
40:45
Speaker 1: I guess I can change my mind and think six
40:47
Speaker 1: and a half is okay. Yeah, let's put it in
40:49
Speaker 1: for six and a half. It stays there. They're definitely
40:51
Speaker 1: in all right. So right now we are locked on
40:54
Speaker 1: Dallas at four and a half, we are locked on
40:56
Speaker 1: Miami at five and a half, and are may be's
41:00
Speaker 1: are all over the board because we're maybe Titans minus nine,
41:03
Speaker 1: we're maybe Browns minus five and a half or six.
41:07
Speaker 1: We're maybe Cardinals minus six and a half, and we're
41:09
Speaker 1: maybe Eagles if Lane Johnson and Miles Sanders are playing.
41:12
Speaker 1: So we got a lot of thinking to do beyond.
41:15
Speaker 1: We'll have to to keep people updated if we don't
41:17
Speaker 1: come to our five here, uh, Ravens and Texans. The
41:22
Speaker 1: Ravens blow out the Browns, the Texans losing opening night
41:24
Speaker 1: to the Chiefs. The Chiefs, the Ravens are six and
41:27
Speaker 1: a half point favorites on the road. Pass pass. Yeah,
41:32
Speaker 1: we can pass it because once it gets a seven
41:34
Speaker 1: and a half, I'm gonna take the Texans here um
41:38
Speaker 1: and it will get there. Right now. The money nine
41:40
Speaker 1: percent of the money the bets are on Baltimore. There's
41:45
Speaker 1: just no reason for anyone to bet on Houston here,
41:47
Speaker 1: Like anyone everyone, especially if you're just having fun betting,
41:51
Speaker 1: you should take the Ravens because it's not gonna be
41:53
Speaker 1: fun betting Houston in this game, I tell you that much.
41:55
Speaker 1: It's never fun betting Houston. I love DeShawn Watson, but
41:59
Speaker 1: they are They are like a take your pill and
42:02
Speaker 1: just deal with the team if you want to bet
42:04
Speaker 1: on them, like there's just no upside. And by the way,
42:08
Speaker 1: last week was the perfect example, right. They were massive
42:11
Speaker 1: underdogs against the Chiefs in that spot. In years past,
42:15
Speaker 1: I would have been the guy who follows every axiom
42:18
Speaker 1: and says I'm taking the big road dog with a
42:22
Speaker 1: good quarterback, and you walked me away from it. And
42:25
Speaker 1: it turned out to be the right call, Thank God,
42:27
Speaker 1: Thank God. Speaking the Chiefs, Chiefs eight and a half
42:30
Speaker 1: point favorites over the Chargers in Los Angeles, which if
42:35
Speaker 1: it was being played today would not be able to
42:38
Speaker 1: be played because the air quality index in Los Angeles
42:41
Speaker 1: is north of two hundred. Wow. Uh yeah, this's this
42:47
Speaker 1: is one of those is where the everyone's gonna be
42:50
Speaker 1: all over the Chiefs because no one, no one thinks
42:52
Speaker 1: the chargers can keep up with them. So as much
42:55
Speaker 1: as I love this, look like a really smart guy
42:57
Speaker 1: and say yeah, we're gonna take the charges here, chargers, uh,
43:00
Speaker 1: they're gonna give them a good fight. They're gonna cover
43:02
Speaker 1: that eight and a half. I just have no no
43:04
Speaker 1: faith in that number. I got this at ten and
43:05
Speaker 1: a half. So I like the chief sere wow, chiefs
43:09
Speaker 1: like for the contest even uh no, because that that
43:16
Speaker 1: that's gonna be It's gonna make me too uneasy just
43:19
Speaker 1: on that big of a number. But actually we might
43:21
Speaker 1: because like now I'm really looking at it, goes what
43:23
Speaker 1: what would have to happen for the charges to cover
43:25
Speaker 1: that number? We would have to have my homes just
43:28
Speaker 1: completely laying egg and I just don't see that happening
43:30
Speaker 1: after the extended rest. It's it's basically Andrew weid offer
43:34
Speaker 1: by right seriously though, So damn yeah, we can put
43:39
Speaker 1: that in for now. Let's put the chiefs in for now. Wow,
43:42
Speaker 1: we're doing such a public pick though it's such a
43:44
Speaker 1: public pick. That's oh, look, we can knock it out.
43:47
Speaker 1: We got three or four games on the board that
43:49
Speaker 1: we might want to that we might like better. So
43:51
Speaker 1: like our old friend, old friend, Darren Rabelle. This is
43:54
Speaker 1: something he's gonna pick this week, and it's a little
43:55
Speaker 1: competition to favor Rebel, and I'm just gonna hate myself.
43:59
Speaker 1: I felt so good when I saw he took the lines.
44:01
Speaker 1: I think I doubled down the Bears. Oh my god,
44:04
Speaker 1: that's classic, not even on the show, and you're still
44:06
Speaker 1: giving a hard time. I love that, all right. Sunday
44:10
Speaker 1: Night Football, the New England Patriots are visiting the Seattle
44:13
Speaker 1: Seahawks and they are let me get this year. There
44:17
Speaker 1: are four and a half point underdogs in Seattle. We
44:21
Speaker 1: got money coming in slight edge and the money coming
44:24
Speaker 1: in in New England. I'm checking all of this in
44:27
Speaker 1: the action that we're gap by the way and the
44:30
Speaker 1: bets coming in on the Seattle Seahawks. Love it, Love
44:33
Speaker 1: New England so much here, especially primetime game. Big big
44:37
Speaker 1: win for the Seahawks last week, and they're coming home.
44:39
Speaker 1: They're feeling good, new traveling across country. And I don't
44:44
Speaker 1: know if I gave it out last week, but so
44:46
Speaker 1: Brady hasn't Brady missed that one full season and then
44:48
Speaker 1: he didn't miss any games and stuff that suspension. I
44:51
Speaker 1: think Bill was three and one against the spread. Well, Jimmy,
44:55
Speaker 1: Jimmy and ber set and now he's got Cam Newton
44:59
Speaker 1: and just saw he's one and know now this year
45:02
Speaker 1: against the spread. And I love the value that I
45:06
Speaker 1: when I saw this game come out, I really thought
45:07
Speaker 1: it was gonna be three or two and a half.
45:10
Speaker 1: And when they opened at four and a half, I
45:11
Speaker 1: really jumped on. And it really hasn't moved. Some books
45:13
Speaker 1: have it down to four the Patriots, but if it
45:16
Speaker 1: stays at four or four and a half, that's that's
45:18
Speaker 1: an automatic play for me in this competition. Wow, a
45:22
Speaker 1: lot of a lot of faith in New England. I
45:27
Speaker 1: didn't expect to hear that at all. I love, I love.
45:31
Speaker 1: I love prime time games because you get value. I mean,
45:33
Speaker 1: last week everyone knows me and Chad move lines here.
45:37
Speaker 1: We gave out the Rams plus three. What that closed
45:40
Speaker 1: at Rams minus one? So when I see like these
45:45
Speaker 1: values in these prime time games, it takes a little
45:47
Speaker 1: while for the sharps or the public to hit the side.
45:49
Speaker 1: Usually I'm on. So I think this is good value
45:52
Speaker 1: here where it's still pretty high up. And you just
45:54
Speaker 1: said all these tickets are coming on Seahawks, So I
45:56
Speaker 1: think we might be able to stay at this number
45:57
Speaker 1: as long as the pros don't buy it down too much.
46:00
Speaker 1: All right, then we're closing in on a on a
46:03
Speaker 1: complete set here our own little dining set. Last game
46:07
Speaker 1: Monday night game, New Orleans Saints visiting the Las Vegas
46:12
Speaker 1: Las Vegas Raiders. That game is uh, it looks like
46:16
Speaker 1: it's six and a half right now. Yeah, six and
46:18
Speaker 1: a half opening a stadium. I guess this is great.
46:22
Speaker 1: If you're a fan of the Raiders and you live
46:24
Speaker 1: in Vegas, you couldn't be happier to take this number.
46:26
Speaker 1: It's gonna get to seven and you have to take
46:29
Speaker 1: a home dog, especially on opening New State. I know
46:32
Speaker 1: there's no fans there, but this is one of those
46:35
Speaker 1: where it's it's just a good number and the Saints
46:37
Speaker 1: they're gonna have a letdown. That was That was shocking
46:41
Speaker 1: how much they dominated the Bucks. But maybe I'm under
46:45
Speaker 1: eight in the Saints, but I really don't empower rate
46:49
Speaker 1: this game all the way up there. I got this
46:50
Speaker 1: at Saints minus three and a half, so I think
46:52
Speaker 1: you're getting a lot of good value in the Raiders.
46:54
Speaker 1: But for us, I'm not gonna put this in our competition,
46:58
Speaker 1: but you bet it. I I am going to be
47:00
Speaker 1: bet in the Raiders. Oh yeah, yeah, Um, all right,
47:03
Speaker 1: so then let's let's recapter the competition then, because we
47:06
Speaker 1: got the games that we love so far, Dallas minus
47:11
Speaker 1: four and a half, New England plus four and a half,
47:16
Speaker 1: we have Miami plus five and a half. Those are
47:19
Speaker 1: like the starred games right now. And Cardinals six and
47:24
Speaker 1: a half that's locked in. Did I write Cards six
47:27
Speaker 1: and a half? Yes, Cards six and a half. We
47:30
Speaker 1: like that. So that's four games right there. So we're
47:33
Speaker 1: waiting on Chief's minus eight and a half. We're waiting
47:36
Speaker 1: on Titans minus nine, We're waiting on Brown's minus five
47:40
Speaker 1: and a half, and we're waiting on Eagles plus one
47:44
Speaker 1: and a half to see if Lane Johnson and Miles
47:46
Speaker 1: Sanders are playing. Yeah, if they come back and they
47:50
Speaker 1: locked the numbers and like, say this does get the
47:52
Speaker 1: plus three Eagles and those guys do come back, that's
47:55
Speaker 1: an easy that's gonna be an easy to play for us.
47:56
Speaker 1: So we're gonna wait and see on that number. Yeah,
48:00
Speaker 1: I feel like we have to wait before we make up.
48:02
Speaker 1: We have four. I think we have to wait before
48:03
Speaker 1: locked in our final call, we gotta get more insight
48:06
Speaker 1: into uh the Eagles injury list, and then I told
48:10
Speaker 1: you the attacks. I signed me and chat up for
48:12
Speaker 1: a survivor pool in the draft kickings because that's another
48:15
Speaker 1: thing they offered. Uh. So luckily I switched out the
48:18
Speaker 1: Colts because I think I did it like a couple
48:20
Speaker 1: of weeks ago, and I put them in not really thinking,
48:23
Speaker 1: and I switched in the Ravens for us. So right now,
48:25
Speaker 1: we got the Ravens done in the survivor pool, so
48:28
Speaker 1: we gotta think of a team for week two? All right,
48:30
Speaker 1: so who's our week to draft Kings Survivor pool entry.
48:36
Speaker 1: You want to just keep playing it safe and just
48:37
Speaker 1: go Chiefs, but then like, we lose the Chiefs for
48:44
Speaker 1: the end of the year when we really need them, see,
48:47
Speaker 1: but I worry about that later. That's how I view
48:49
Speaker 1: these Survivor pools. It's like, how can I just win
48:51
Speaker 1: this one week? And people always like, well, you can.
48:53
Speaker 1: You have to think weeks ahead, I always say, And
48:55
Speaker 1: there's thirty two teams, Like every there's gonna weeks You're
48:58
Speaker 1: gonna have to randomly take some crappy team and hopefully
49:00
Speaker 1: it works out for you all right, Let's say I
49:05
Speaker 1: would take the chiefs of the Cowboys. Oh, the Cowboys.
49:10
Speaker 1: I like that. Let's see the Cowboys. Let's you know,
49:13
Speaker 1: let's you just use the Cowboys. We'll put them in
49:15
Speaker 1: all right, let's use the Cowboys. I am in two
49:20
Speaker 1: other survivor pools, and in one of them, I took
49:23
Speaker 1: the Colts. Of course you did. Yeah, only unfortunately only uh.
49:27
Speaker 1: I think like a hundred thousand people took them. So
49:29
Speaker 1: there's still like four to thousand people left in this
49:31
Speaker 1: Draft Kings thing. But hey man, we're playing in two
49:34
Speaker 1: different things for a million bucks. Also, by the way,
49:36
Speaker 1: by the way, you know what, we go a perfect
49:38
Speaker 1: week in the Draft Kings pick Um Pro Football pick
49:40
Speaker 1: Hum contest, we get a hundred dollars in free bets
49:43
Speaker 1: for winning, uh, for winning the count going five? And
49:46
Speaker 1: how do you think they're gonna give it to us?
49:48
Speaker 1: Of course they are, they better, right, Yeah. I got
49:52
Speaker 1: a call with them. I got a call with them
49:53
Speaker 1: tomorrow to talk about this. I'm gonna make sure they do. Yeah,
49:56
Speaker 1: they're probably shocked. You're like, we gave these idiots real
49:58
Speaker 1: money to play with and they're taking us from money now. Alright,
50:03
Speaker 1: Simon Hunter. Let's recap here. We got the Eagles we
50:05
Speaker 1: are waiting on. But the other teams that we love
50:07
Speaker 1: Miami plus five and a half, New England plus four
50:10
Speaker 1: and a half, Dallas minus four and a half, the
50:13
Speaker 1: Cards plus six and a half, I mean minus six
50:15
Speaker 1: and a half. Um, those are the four we are
50:17
Speaker 1: locked in. I will keep everyone updated via Twitter. You
50:21
Speaker 1: will keep everyone updated via Twitter, and you can follow
50:24
Speaker 1: all of the picks in the Action Network gap. Go
50:27
Speaker 1: follow Simon Hunter. I will put them in before we
50:32
Speaker 1: when we lock on Saturday. I love it, buddy, Yeah,
50:35
Speaker 1: I'm excited. And people out there that they're like messaging
50:39
Speaker 1: me and Demi that they parlayed all five our picks
50:41
Speaker 1: and all this stuff together. Let me remind you we
50:43
Speaker 1: did not go five and oh one time all last season.
50:47
Speaker 1: So we did it week one year. Like Rob's on
50:49
Speaker 1: a nice little groove. But don't parlay our five picks together.
50:52
Speaker 1: Do two and two or something. Just break them up
50:54
Speaker 1: because it's impossible to do that. We can win out.
50:57
Speaker 1: It's hard enough to win one game, let alone to
51:00
Speaker 1: so I really I really want to talk to they're
51:02
Speaker 1: out there parlaying our picks. Just do two at a time,
51:04
Speaker 1: you'll you'll make more money this season doing it. Don't
51:07
Speaker 1: give good advice, Simon. All I do is when, when when? When?
51:12
Speaker 1: No matter what? Talking of money. All right, let me
51:15
Speaker 1: remind people we got the phrase that pays. Last week,
51:17
Speaker 1: we as fans to rate and review the podcast. Those
51:19
Speaker 1: who did and use the winning phrase in the review
51:21
Speaker 1: were eligible to win a free Action Network Couldie. We
51:24
Speaker 1: had loads of reviews, especially after we win five and oh.
51:27
Speaker 1: Thank you for that. In a second, we will reveal
51:30
Speaker 1: the winner. But remember we are doing another phrase that
51:33
Speaker 1: pays this weekend, same practice. Go rate and review the
51:36
Speaker 1: podcast using the phrase. Simon says, let's go and defeat it,
51:40
Speaker 1: and we will randomly choose the winner to get a
51:41
Speaker 1: free Action Network coulding. But the winner the winner, Simon,
51:45
Speaker 1: You're gonna love this. Of last week's contest. Winning the
51:47
Speaker 1: Action Network couldy is Aaron La plant At Aaron kay
51:51
Speaker 1: La plant the review. When Simon says to bet on
51:56
Speaker 1: a team, I bet on them. It's that simple. With
51:58
Speaker 1: alleged author Chad Himan at his side, Simon Hunter dropped
52:02
Speaker 1: a five and oh record on us in week one.
52:04
Speaker 1: I didn't go five and oh at any point last
52:06
Speaker 1: season This podcast is loaded with info. It releases early
52:09
Speaker 1: in the week, so I usually get the best of
52:11
Speaker 1: the number. Great lesson for everybody, and it's a muscle listen.
52:15
Speaker 1: Even with the departure of America's America's Bookmaker, Bob Scucci,
52:19
Speaker 1: make Scooch Proud Boys, Simon, I believe you did. That's
52:25
Speaker 1: a really nice for beam. I appreciate and this whole
52:27
Speaker 1: season will be dedicated to the one, the only, Bob
52:29
Speaker 1: sco as it shouldn't be Simon Hunter. Until next time,
52:34
Speaker 1: everybody else, this has been the favorites. Download from Apple, podcast,
52:38
Speaker 1: from Spotify, wherever you get your podcasts. Until next time,
52:41
Speaker 1: I Love you, Yeah,