Latest / Financial Survival Network / Silver Breakout Fakeout Or Launchpad? - David Erfle #6383

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Silver Breakout Fakeout Or Launchpad? - David Erfle #6383 · Financial Survival Network

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Speaker 2: And welcome everybody. This is Financial Survival Network. I'm Carrie Leutz,
0:32
Speaker 2: but you already knew all that. David Arthley is with
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Speaker 2: me now, junior minor junkie. That is the place that
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Speaker 2: you find him. And probably we've lost all of our
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Speaker 2: people who we're going to sign up. Denny's with us,
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Speaker 2: Richard's with us, Rusty Fletcher, John Michael, Michael, You're on
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Speaker 2: there twice, Gil Bryce Man. They're really coming off here.
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Speaker 2: And I love the concept of doing this, David, because
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Speaker 2: you know, it adds like a little more. I don't
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Speaker 2: want to say drama because then I would have to
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Speaker 2: go get married. But again has been no, we're done. No,
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Speaker 2: the store has closed, the checkbook has been permanently frozen.
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Speaker 2: It's never happened. And again Charles is with us ninety cougar.
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Speaker 2: That one I want to find out more about but
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Speaker 2: ninety cougar. If you're there, just send a text here.
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Speaker 2: By the way, all of you you can ask questions.
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Speaker 2: We got like on all the other streams going on,
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Speaker 2: close to forty fifty people on with us. David, you know,
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Speaker 2: watching the gyrations of silver especially but gold as well.
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Speaker 2: Over the past month, I kept hearing your words because look,
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Speaker 2: the war starts. If anything, gold and silver should skyrocket,
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Speaker 2: and what do they do? They crash and then the
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Speaker 2: war is supposedly over, which it's not. It's seventh to
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Speaker 2: seventh inning stretch. And what happens It goes up? Man like,
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Speaker 2: so which does Don't watch headlines. Don't set your investment
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Speaker 2: thesis according to the headlines, because you were always going
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Speaker 2: to be wrong because it's always going to do what
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Speaker 2: you think it shouldn't. And right, I mean, isn't that
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Speaker 2: proof of your thesis? Yeah?
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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, well, first of all, thanks for having
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Speaker 3: me on, and I'm a live stream version of I've
2:43
Speaker 3: never done anything like this before, so it's going to
2:46
Speaker 3: be fun. But yeah, I mean when you look at
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Speaker 3: the gold price, first of all, let's go back a
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Speaker 3: little bit, right, Both gold and silver had huge parabolic
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Speaker 3: runs right, and we had a sharp reversal from parabolic
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Speaker 3: peaks an intermediate peak. So if you weren't, you know,
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Speaker 3: trim and some profits into that parabolic peak. And I
3:11
Speaker 3: sent out a message to my subscribers. And I know
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Speaker 3: it's difficult, it's it's almost damn near impossible right to
3:16
Speaker 3: call tops and bottoms consistently. But when you see a
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Speaker 3: parabolic peak like that and an interesting reversal after such
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Speaker 3: a huge move, I mean, that's a that's a pretty
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Speaker 3: easy one to call. And I did call that one,
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Speaker 3: and I you know, I sent out a message to
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Speaker 3: my subscribers, Hey, it's a good time to trim some profits,
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Speaker 3: because in bull markets in this sector, what do you do?
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Speaker 3: You trim rhino horns and then you accumulate fishing lines.
3:43
Speaker 3: You don't look at headlines, You look at the price action.
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Speaker 3: And that's that's what my subscribers and I did. So
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Speaker 3: we had a bunch of cash waiting, you know, for
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Speaker 3: something like this to happen, because it happens every time
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Speaker 3: there's a deleveraging event, right, I mean, sure war is
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Speaker 3: bullish for gold, you know, everybody knows that, but deleveraging events,
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Speaker 3: you know, margin call clerks. You know, they don't care
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Speaker 3: about fundamentals when when the margin call clerk comes to
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Speaker 3: call and you got to.
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Speaker 2: Pay them up.
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Speaker 3: So you know, we had these people had these huge
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Speaker 3: gains in goold stocks and paper gold stocks, and in
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Speaker 3: paper gold and paper silver. So you know, we had
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Speaker 3: this wild volatility throughout the war. Now, with a peak
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Speaker 3: to trough correction of over fifteen hundred dollars in gold,
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Speaker 3: that's a twenty seven percent correction.
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Speaker 2: What did it do?
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Speaker 3: Came down and tested its two hundred day moving average
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Speaker 3: real quickly and just bounced right back up. And then
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Speaker 3: but at the silver it was in silver it was
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Speaker 3: even more incredible, right, I mean, look at silver, we
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Speaker 3: had a forty five year cup and handle break.
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Speaker 2: Out above fifty dollars in ounce.
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Speaker 3: I mean that is historic to say the least, right,
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Speaker 3: So what did the silver price do? It just ran
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Speaker 3: up from that cup and handle a breakout to one
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Speaker 3: hundred and twenty one dollars an ounce. So we've had
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Speaker 3: a sixty dollars correction in silver. That's a fifty percent correction.
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Speaker 3: So you know it's perfectly normal to come back and
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Speaker 3: test the breakout and what's the breakout fifty to fifty
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Speaker 3: five dollars, so that could still be in the cards,
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Speaker 3: even though we've corrected down to the sixty one dollars level.
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Speaker 3: But the interesting thing to point out during this carry
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Speaker 3: is the gold stocks. Right. You've had a lot of people,
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Speaker 3: you know, jumping off cliffs saying, oh my god, my
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Speaker 3: gold stocks are down fifty sixty percent in just three weeks.
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Speaker 3: But you want to take a step back and look
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Speaker 3: at the big picture. What did they do before that?
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Speaker 2: Right?
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Speaker 3: The miners were up to one hundred percent in a year. Okay,
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Speaker 3: that needs to correct for a healthy move to continue,
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Speaker 3: and that's exactly what happened in three weeks, right, But
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Speaker 3: the gold stocks only corrected thirty five percent while silver
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Speaker 3: corrected fifty percent.
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Speaker 2: That's pretty good.
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Speaker 3: And they didn't even come down to test their two
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Speaker 3: hundred day moving averages yet. So you know this is
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Speaker 3: all this is all just a healthy consolidation, but it
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Speaker 3: was driven by force de leveraging, which kind of panicked
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Speaker 3: a lot of people.
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Speaker 2: Yeah, I couldn't have said it better myself. In fact,
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Speaker 2: that's the reason you're on the show, because I couldn't
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Speaker 2: have said it better myself. But just a few things
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Speaker 2: you know, margin clerks are the only people who can
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Speaker 2: turn a winning trade into a life lesson right after
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Speaker 2: they lick, right after they liquidate you at the exact bottom,
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Speaker 2: and the market doesn't bottom when the news gets bad
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Speaker 2: at bottoms, when the margin clerk finally stops calling, and finally,
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Speaker 2: I don't need a financial advisor.
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Speaker 3: I've got a margin clerk with perfect timing, exactly. And
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Speaker 3: every bull market is begun by what short covering?
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Speaker 2: Of course, of course, that's what caused this bull market
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Speaker 2: in silver was shrip covering. And the thing was, the
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Speaker 2: reason you know it had to crash, was because there
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Speaker 2: was really no retail involvement in this upsearch. It was
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Speaker 2: strictly Armstrong called this. I know you're not a big
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Speaker 2: fan of his, but he called it. To the day
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Speaker 2: he called it. He put out a thing on I
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Speaker 2: think it was Wednesday or Thursday, said that February second
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Speaker 2: was an inflection point for silver. That was the Monday following.
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Speaker 2: The inflection point was Friday. Because all the pros front
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Speaker 2: ran the inflection point, you know, because they know, because
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Speaker 2: they actual, because you know, the big guys see the
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Speaker 2: short positions.
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Speaker 3: I mean, that's just what started the bull market back
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Speaker 3: up in gold stocks in late twenty fifteen early twenty sixteen, right,
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Speaker 3: I mean the shorts cleaned up, right, I mean GDXGDXJ
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Speaker 3: down eighty five percent. And in order for them to
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Speaker 3: clean up, what do they got to do?
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Speaker 2: They got to buy back shares. No, that's it what
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Speaker 2: started it. But we're going to see it again because
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Speaker 2: you know, this is a case where you cannot trade headlines.
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Speaker 2: Certainly in the medals. Maybe it works if you're a
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Speaker 2: day trader and you can trade headlines and share it.
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Speaker 2: Good luck day trading the sucktor. Yeah, well, if you're
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Speaker 2: a short term swing trader or whatever, maybe you can
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Speaker 2: do it there. It doesn't work for the medals. And
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Speaker 2: the only thing that works for the medals is taking
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Speaker 2: money off the table. I took some off, not enough.
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Speaker 2: I wish I had taken off more, but I took
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Speaker 2: enough so that the hit honestly made no difference to me.
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Speaker 2: It didn't shake me, it didn't upset me, didn't rattle me.
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Speaker 2: I kind of knew it was coming, I didn't know
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Speaker 2: exactly when until I read that Armstrong announcement, and then
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Speaker 2: I knew totally knew it was coming. But fundamentally here, David,
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Speaker 2: nothing's changed.
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Speaker 3: No, absolutely not. I mean what look, well, let's go
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Speaker 3: back and look at the gold price here. I mean,
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Speaker 3: March was the weakest month for gold in nearly thirteen years.
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Speaker 3: But like we said, you know that sell off was
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Speaker 3: driven by deleveraging and liquidity concerns and amid the you know,
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Speaker 3: the I ran, I mean they ran all the oil shock,
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Speaker 3: not a breakdown in fundamentals. I mean the goal price
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Speaker 3: is down, was down eleven and a half percent in March.
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Speaker 3: That's its worth worst month since October twenty eight, October
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Speaker 3: two thousand and eight. What was happening in October two
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Speaker 3: thousand and eight, right, another deleveraging related event in the
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Speaker 3: marketplace caused by the global financial crisis.
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Speaker 2: That was that was that was that one was a
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Speaker 2: little worse, but so kPr.
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Speaker 3: But if you take a little in another old price,
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Speaker 3: I mean it's it averaged forty eight and seventy dollars
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Speaker 3: in Q one this year, and that's it closed. If
10:01
Speaker 3: take a step back, it closed its tenth consecutive record
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Speaker 3: quarterly closed, right, and it's it's seventy percent higher than
10:09
Speaker 3: Q four and it's seventy percent higher than Q one.
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Speaker 2: Of a year ago.
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Speaker 3: So since the gold price double bottomed. You remember the
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Speaker 3: brown bottom at two fifty in two thousand and one,
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Speaker 3: that was the bottom, right, Gold's fallen ten percent in
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Speaker 3: one month, five other times, and every single time it
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Speaker 3: rebounded with an average gain of nine point two percent
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Speaker 3: in the following month.
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Speaker 2: Makes sense. So I want to share with you a
10:40
Speaker 2: proprietary index that I have created living in South Florida. Here.
10:45
Speaker 2: It's called the Palm Beach Trophy Wife Index. And there's
10:51
Speaker 2: a place called Swifties in the Colony Hotel. That's where
10:55
Speaker 2: they all gather for lunch. And let me tell you,
10:57
Speaker 2: they are like gazelle's out in the bush the second
11:03
Speaker 2: something happens, you know, like when you see those gazelles
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Speaker 2: go like that they clutch. No danger is on the horizon.
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Speaker 2: And let me tell you it was flashing a major
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Speaker 2: warning in late March, you know, throughout mid March to
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Speaker 2: early April. But the warning has passed. I think worth
11:24
Speaker 2: av is safe and.
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Speaker 3: Well we also had the PDAC curse right right.
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Speaker 2: On, Yeah, perfect right, that exactly. I mean. You know,
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Speaker 2: March is an interesting month because it could be a
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Speaker 2: crash month or it could be a take breakout month. Yeah, yeah,
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Speaker 2: same with October. Yeah, exactly the same, exactly because October
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Speaker 2: is Q four and uh, you know it's the beginning
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Speaker 2: of Q four, which historically is when the medals move
11:57
Speaker 2: most of the time, eighty percent of the time they
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Speaker 2: move in October. Right, yeah, that's seasonal Yeah, yeah, so
12:04
Speaker 2: seasonal boost. Anyway, we got over like sixty people here.
12:08
Speaker 2: David's a you're talking to your audience, so you guys,
12:11
Speaker 2: ask any questions. Richard said, it said, this was an
12:16
Speaker 2: emergency broadcast. Well, an emergency. Let you know that the
12:20
Speaker 2: emergency is over, Like I said, I don't believe the
12:24
Speaker 2: war is over. Oh that's fortunately not. No, it'll it'll
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Speaker 2: go on for probably till June, is my guess.
12:33
Speaker 3: And you can't flip on a switch to turn turn
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Speaker 3: back the turned back, the to open up the straight
12:38
Speaker 3: of her MUDs. It's it's it's like, you know, it's
12:40
Speaker 3: like it's like, uh, you know, turning back, turning a
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Speaker 3: mine back on. That's been on Karen maintenance for a while. Right.
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Speaker 2: You can't just flip a switch. Yeah, but psychology, it's
12:50
Speaker 2: a psychological moment.
12:53
Speaker 3: Oh I was covering and look at a huge gap
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Speaker 3: up and in S and P and in goold and
13:00
Speaker 3: solder and the doubts.
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Speaker 2: Those are huge gaps, right those are you know they're
13:06
Speaker 2: going to get filled eventually. Yeah, oh yeah, I mean
13:10
Speaker 2: this is a seventh seventh inning stretch, I would call it.
13:14
Speaker 2: You know, it's going to be over soon. Yeah.
13:17
Speaker 3: But as far as as far as gold price is concerned,
13:19
Speaker 3: you know, I mean with this two week ceasefire bringing
13:23
Speaker 3: risk gone back in the marketplace. The focus now has
13:26
Speaker 3: been shifted to monetary policy expectations. So we just came
13:31
Speaker 3: on at eleven, so I didn't see the release, but
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Speaker 3: the FED, the FED minutes were released just now.
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Speaker 2: Oh.
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Speaker 3: Then that's going to be followed by Q four GDP
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Speaker 3: and PC inflation numbers tomorrow and then CPI inflation on Friday.
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Speaker 3: So that's what the that's what the gold market's going
13:48
Speaker 3: to be looking at now. But but you know, at
13:50
Speaker 3: the same time, we got a FED that's totally boxed
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Speaker 3: in into a textbook stagflationary setup. Right, it caught between
13:58
Speaker 3: two bad options. If they kind interest rates, that's going
14:01
Speaker 3: to pour fuel on an already you know pce fire
14:04
Speaker 3: that's over three percent. That's an over over a percent
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Speaker 3: above their fantasy two percent target. But if they hike rates,
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Speaker 3: that's going to stagnate growth further. Right, the last g
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Speaker 3: Q four GDP number was less than one percent up.
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Speaker 3: And and also and not to mention the interest rising
14:25
Speaker 3: on exploding debt. Did you see last Monday where lame
14:30
Speaker 3: duck Fed chair Jerome Powell used one of his last
14:33
Speaker 3: public appearances to boldly, boldly address what sitting officials. I mean,
14:41
Speaker 3: they never go out on a limb and say and
14:44
Speaker 3: tell the truth, especially about debt. So he but he
14:47
Speaker 3: told a room full of Harvard undergrads that the US
14:50
Speaker 3: debt is growing much faster than the economy and the
14:55
Speaker 3: path is not sustainable.
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Speaker 2: Gee. I mean, and I said, is that gold.
15:00
Speaker 3: Stocks have been has been outperforming not only the gold
15:04
Speaker 3: price but the stock.
15:05
Speaker 2: Market as well. That's been the case for most of
15:09
Speaker 2: my life. That's been increasing unsustainably. Apply it increases unsustainably
15:17
Speaker 2: until it can't be sustained anywhere.
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Speaker 3: Right, Yeah, I mean, just look at the gold price
15:22
Speaker 3: and and and the and the debt ceiling graph right debts. Yeah,
15:26
Speaker 3: it just keeps going like this, and the gold price
15:28
Speaker 3: does the same thing.
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Speaker 2: So tell me your thoughts about the private credit crack up,
15:35
Speaker 2: because it really is a crack up.
15:37
Speaker 3: Oh yeah, all these all these redemptions that that these
15:40
Speaker 3: companies are saying, you know what, you can't have your
15:43
Speaker 3: money back. That's that's that that's pretty huge. I mean
15:48
Speaker 3: one after one, Blue owls.
15:49
Speaker 2: That was was the one that got most of the headlines.
15:52
Speaker 2: I think that saying you know, we we're not giving
15:54
Speaker 2: you your money back, that's huge. Yeah, right, that's the way.
16:00
Speaker 2: It's the same, same exactly. But you know what the
16:02
Speaker 2: difference is. The difference here is people aren't losing their houses,
16:07
Speaker 2: so it's not in the news, which makes it easy
16:11
Speaker 2: for the Fed to do a backdoor bailout. Isn't good
16:15
Speaker 2: for the economy. They should let it all fail, but
16:19
Speaker 2: it extend and pretend in the dark because nobody knows
16:24
Speaker 2: it and you can't. You know. Now, before we were
16:28
Speaker 2: worried about JP, Morgan, City Bank, all the big banks.
16:34
Speaker 2: Now we're worried about Blackrock, Blackstone, Blackstone, Ye, Blue Owl,
16:41
Speaker 2: and a bunch of names that you never heard of.
16:44
Speaker 2: But it's going to lead to a recession because all
16:48
Speaker 2: of those mid market companies are unbankable. Now, no, we'll
16:53
Speaker 2: loan the money.
16:54
Speaker 3: I employ millions of people, and there's no way the
16:57
Speaker 3: Fed's going to raise rates to force a recession because
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Speaker 3: of this.
17:02
Speaker 2: I mean, they're stuck. They can't do anything. They're in
17:05
Speaker 2: a box, like you said. And hey, so we had
17:09
Speaker 2: a question here, Martin Armstrong is calling for directional change
17:13
Speaker 2: in April for medals. What do you think transist?
17:16
Speaker 3: Is that? That?
17:18
Speaker 2: I saw that?
17:18
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's funny because he also said in a private
17:22
Speaker 3: blog in his private blog a couple of weeks ago
17:26
Speaker 3: that if this de leveraging really accelerates and the gold
17:31
Speaker 3: price loses forty two hundred dollars on a weekly basis, then.
17:37
Speaker 2: The gold price could get down to like thirty eight
17:39
Speaker 2: to fifty something like that.
17:40
Speaker 3: I mean, but you know, we've now we had a
17:44
Speaker 3: now that we've had a you know, a Miya kulpa
17:47
Speaker 3: again by by by Trump, which shouldn't be surprising to anybody.
17:51
Speaker 3: Right when did it happen? It happened on Taco Tuesday. Right,
17:55
Speaker 3: So whenever the stock market looks like it's gonna tank, right,
18:00
Speaker 3: Trump comes out and says something about the war winding down,
18:03
Speaker 3: something positive like, hey, don't worry, I'm not going to
18:06
Speaker 3: blow up the entire Persian community.
18:08
Speaker 2: It's all, yes, yeah, I'm not ready to do that yet.
18:13
Speaker 3: I'm not ready to to unleash, you know, the mighty
18:17
Speaker 3: weaponry of the of the of the United States upon
18:19
Speaker 3: the Persian community just yet.
18:21
Speaker 2: So we're going to wait a couple of weeks and
18:23
Speaker 2: see what happens. All right, here's a question from Paul High.
18:28
Speaker 2: I'm from from New Zealand. A good place to be
18:31
Speaker 2: with everything going on. Oh, ninety Cougar. I got to
18:41
Speaker 2: know who ninety Cougar is. But he or she says,
18:45
Speaker 2: is this going to be a sell in May and
18:48
Speaker 2: go away type of year? My guess is no, No, Yeah,
18:53
Speaker 2: I wouldn't think so. I mean, you got to look
18:56
Speaker 2: at capitol flows. You know, Martin arch Armstrong has taught
18:58
Speaker 2: us that the most right about capital flows. I mean,
19:02
Speaker 2: everybody could you know that have been preaching that the
19:04
Speaker 2: stock market is going to is going to crash. You
19:06
Speaker 2: know where's all that money going to go? Yeah, you
19:10
Speaker 2: know it's the US is still the number one economy.
19:14
Speaker 2: The US is.
19:14
Speaker 3: Still where Europeans want to park their park their money.
19:18
Speaker 2: Say have to mark it, not want it exactly, no choice.
19:22
Speaker 2: You're a ten billion dollar hedge fund in uh, someplace
19:28
Speaker 2: in Europe, and you got a billion and a half
19:30
Speaker 2: in cash. Are you parking it in a uh you're
19:33
Speaker 2: in bank? Right, No, you're wiring it to JP. Morgan
19:37
Speaker 2: is the you know, it's that old concept, the best
19:41
Speaker 2: looking house in Baltimore. Yep, and watch it and watch
19:44
Speaker 2: the dollar.
19:44
Speaker 3: Right. Where did the dollar index go? It ran right
19:48
Speaker 3: up to that one hundred.
19:49
Speaker 2: Dollar lenth's exactly.
19:51
Speaker 3: Really strong support for so long. And once it lost it, right,
19:55
Speaker 3: that's when gold really started to move up.
19:58
Speaker 2: And that what do we do?
20:00
Speaker 3: Recently?
20:00
Speaker 2: We back tested it.
20:01
Speaker 3: It held there waiting to see what was going to
20:03
Speaker 3: happen with with with the Iran war. And then as
20:07
Speaker 3: soon as Trump came out on Taco Tuesday it announced
20:10
Speaker 3: the Hey, you know there's going to be a ceasefire
20:13
Speaker 3: for two weeks. What did the index do? It tanked
20:16
Speaker 3: this morning below ninety nine. Even so, watch that dollar
20:22
Speaker 3: in and watch the two hundred day moving averages on
20:25
Speaker 3: the S and P, the Dow, the the Nasdaq. Right
20:28
Speaker 3: they were all hanging around the back testing their two
20:31
Speaker 3: hundred day moving average, waiting to see what was going
20:33
Speaker 3: to happen with Iran.
20:35
Speaker 2: It old price was it.
20:36
Speaker 3: Was also was also hanging around, right, it was also
20:40
Speaker 3: below five thousand. That's the number you got to watch
20:43
Speaker 3: on the gold price.
20:43
Speaker 2: Right.
20:43
Speaker 3: It easy to get back up of one thousand on
20:45
Speaker 3: a weekly closing basis, and silver needs to get back
20:48
Speaker 3: above ninety.
20:50
Speaker 2: So one thing I want to cover with you is
20:54
Speaker 2: deficit in silver production here, right. We're not imagining this, right,
21:00
Speaker 2: this is you know, it's it's what it's the sixty
21:02
Speaker 2: year now of a structural deficit and there's.
21:05
Speaker 3: No end in sight, no, I mean, and as far
21:08
Speaker 3: as wrapping up new silver mines, I mean, what seventy
21:11
Speaker 3: percent of silver is mined as a byproduct of something else?
21:15
Speaker 2: Y mind's going to be coming online anytime soon? No, no,
21:22
Speaker 2: even at a one hundred dollars silver right. So, and
21:25
Speaker 2: at the same time we have increasing demand and it's
21:30
Speaker 2: really hard.
21:31
Speaker 3: Yeah, and look what happened was happening in Asia during
21:34
Speaker 3: this paper gold this paper precious metal cell off right
21:39
Speaker 3: in Asia, especially in China, physical demand remained very robust
21:45
Speaker 3: and the premiums are still you know, ten to fifteen
21:47
Speaker 3: percent Ire and Changai. So that's that hasn't changed at all.
21:51
Speaker 3: This was just a de leveraged paper flush.
21:56
Speaker 2: So Francisca again, so would you start buying in a
22:01
Speaker 2: portion now? And thanks? At least this is what I'm
22:05
Speaker 2: planning for the next few days.
22:08
Speaker 3: Well, here's what I've been telling I've been telling my
22:10
Speaker 3: subscribers and telling to anybody who listen.
22:12
Speaker 2: Not financial advice.
22:14
Speaker 3: Yeah you take if you watch the watch these levels.
22:19
Speaker 2: In the GDX and GDXJ.
22:21
Speaker 3: Today we had gap ups above them and now those
22:25
Speaker 3: those gaps are already selling and filling down. Watched the
22:29
Speaker 3: ninety five level in GDX and the one hundred and
22:32
Speaker 3: twenty five level in GDX. That's the eighteen week moving average, right,
22:37
Speaker 3: So the eighteen week moving average has been major support
22:41
Speaker 3: ever since the gold stocks broke out early last year.
22:44
Speaker 2: They tested, they were tested.
22:47
Speaker 3: Several times on the way up, but they were broke
22:50
Speaker 3: for the first time during this deleveraging event, and then
22:53
Speaker 3: they came up and they were back testing waiting right
22:56
Speaker 3: as S and P Dow Nasdaq, we're back testing two
23:00
Speaker 3: under day moving average waiting around there. Gd X and
23:02
Speaker 3: gd XJ, we're waiting around their eighteen week moving averages.
23:07
Speaker 3: So if we see a weekly close above those above
23:10
Speaker 3: their eighteen week moving averages this week. That would raise
23:14
Speaker 3: odds considerably that the recent low that we saw were
23:19
Speaker 3: most likely a sustainable bottom. But take a look at
23:24
Speaker 3: that at the at the at their rising two hundred
23:26
Speaker 3: day moving averages. Also because I expect more backing and filling, right,
23:30
Speaker 3: I mean, let's we need we need to we need
23:34
Speaker 3: to to create a sustainable base, right. I mean, like
23:38
Speaker 3: I said, remember miners, what up two without without as
23:42
Speaker 3: much as a fifteen person correction, Right, So we need
23:48
Speaker 3: to build a sustainable base for the next move higher. Right,
23:52
Speaker 3: I mean, every time we've had deleveraging events and and hey,
23:55
Speaker 3: this deleveraging event, this.
23:57
Speaker 2: Could be a pause. This, this might not be over.
24:01
Speaker 3: We could still see.
24:02
Speaker 2: More deleveraging that that could that could very well happen.
24:05
Speaker 3: And if we do, I still expect that the gold
24:08
Speaker 3: stocks that did GDX GDXJ to hold their.
24:11
Speaker 2: Their two hundred date wing averages, which aren't too much
24:14
Speaker 2: lower than where they are right now.
24:17
Speaker 3: So basically what I'm saying is, I think the downside
24:21
Speaker 3: in the short term is minimal, but the upside in
24:24
Speaker 3: the long term is huge. Because you know, while we
24:27
Speaker 3: had those huge moves in the minors that the venture exchange, right,
24:31
Speaker 3: the CDNX, the TSX venture was only up eighty five percent,
24:35
Speaker 3: and it's it's bumping up against that thousand level, which
24:38
Speaker 3: it's been bumping up against for the past twelve years.
24:42
Speaker 3: That's a huge base, right, And if you want some
24:46
Speaker 3: if you want some perspective, right in two thousand and eight,
24:50
Speaker 3: when the gold price finally cleared one thousand dollars for
24:54
Speaker 3: like a day, that was right before the Great Financial Crisis,
24:58
Speaker 3: when it went from one thousand, town that's done the
25:01
Speaker 3: like sixteen to twenty really quickly. But when it ran
25:04
Speaker 3: up to one thousand, the TSX venture ran up to
25:08
Speaker 3: thirty three hundred. It's nowhere near that. It's a thound.
25:12
Speaker 3: Like I said, it's right below one thousand now. So
25:15
Speaker 3: you need massive participation in all sectors, all sub sectors
25:20
Speaker 3: of the mining of the mining sector for this, for
25:24
Speaker 3: this sector to create a major top We're nowhere near it.
25:29
Speaker 2: I don't see it. Even looking at the Fibonacci numbers,
25:33
Speaker 2: you know, it pretty much lines up with them as well,
25:36
Speaker 2: you know. So all right, interesting here somebody mentions a company.
25:46
Speaker 2: Do you ever hear this company? Manuka Resources? On the
25:49
Speaker 2: ASX will be producing silver in about two months new mine.
25:54
Speaker 2: I don't follow Australian juniors. I'm sorry. I just followed
25:58
Speaker 2: North North American juniors. Or they are too abusive to
26:03
Speaker 2: their shareholder's in the land down under. It too much neighborhood.
26:08
Speaker 2: I never met a plution that they didn't look exactly. Yeah,
26:11
Speaker 2: billion series is commonplace and jugurial diluters, and it works
26:16
Speaker 2: there but doesn't work here. Works in Canada to some extent,
26:21
Speaker 2: but eventually even in Canada it doesn't work. So all right,
26:27
Speaker 2: I think we are good. This is good. We had
26:30
Speaker 2: like over, I'm looking at ninety two people. Ninety three
26:35
Speaker 2: people here will have a replay up. I mean that's
26:38
Speaker 2: a lot of people. I just sent out a little
26:40
Speaker 2: notice yesterday. We got a lot of you out there.
26:44
Speaker 2: I got a report that I'm going to drop this weekend.
26:46
Speaker 2: I was waiting for the signal. The signal was today.
26:51
Speaker 2: Basically it's called living the silver backed lifestyle. I think
26:56
Speaker 2: you'll find it entertaining. It gives a good historical perspective
27:03
Speaker 2: and basically how you play silver to keep your life,
27:08
Speaker 2: your lifestyle where it is, are better because if you
27:12
Speaker 2: had just kept all your wealth in silver. There are
27:15
Speaker 2: a few times where it would have lost purchasing power.
27:18
Speaker 2: But from nineteen sixty on, David, if all your wealth
27:24
Speaker 2: was in silver, and nobody would would do that, presumably
27:28
Speaker 2: accept the Hunt Brothers, you're out. Yeah, But even with
27:33
Speaker 2: the Hunt Brothers, you know, it pulled back, but it
27:36
Speaker 2: had gone up so much prior to that point that
27:40
Speaker 2: if you were in it, averaging up and averaging down,
27:44
Speaker 2: you'd still be so far ahead. Because two silver dimes
27:48
Speaker 2: from nineteen sixty four. In nineteen sixty four brought you
27:52
Speaker 2: a gallon of gas, but now they up until I
27:57
Speaker 2: can't say what a gallon of gas costs right now.
28:00
Speaker 2: So what state you're in.
28:02
Speaker 3: You're in California, it's going to cost you over It's
28:04
Speaker 3: going to cost you almost six bucks.
28:06
Speaker 2: A gallon right now. Yeah, insane, insane. It's totally self
28:09
Speaker 2: inflicted as well. There's no reason for gats to be
28:13
Speaker 2: six bucks a gallon. But you have the boutiquification of.
28:17
Speaker 3: Olio if you've heard, But our state's broke. So it's
28:19
Speaker 3: it's the taxes. It's the California taxes.
28:22
Speaker 2: Fourth is economy in the world. California the fourth biggest
28:26
Speaker 2: economy in the world. But why are all the billionaires
28:29
Speaker 2: like fleeing in droves. Well, that's that. That's a different
28:33
Speaker 2: podcast for a different time, I think, and they all think.
28:37
Speaker 2: Go on, they all moved down the street from me
28:40
Speaker 2: in Palm Beach and in Miami, right, yeah, yeah, why
28:45
Speaker 2: it must be the weather, right, got to be the weather.
28:49
Speaker 2: There's no other human. Oh, I don't remember if I
28:53
Speaker 2: showed you this last time. The book is out. Oh, yes,
28:57
Speaker 2: you did, you did? That's great? Yeah, well it's actually here.
29:00
Speaker 2: The book's out, The lawsuit is active. We're having lots
29:04
Speaker 2: of fun with Florida attorneys. They're not New York attorneys.
29:10
Speaker 2: I don't want to speak badly of my former profession.
29:14
Speaker 2: I'll leave that for all of you to do it. Wow,
29:17
Speaker 2: this guy, Paul, Yeah, thanks for being on. Paul says
29:21
Speaker 2: in New Zealand, they're paying twelve dollars a gallon. Imagine that. Well,
29:27
Speaker 2: I know in Europe, going into Europe, it's pretty bad too. Yeah.
29:31
Speaker 3: And it was already bad in Europe, it was already
29:35
Speaker 3: so much higher than here.
29:36
Speaker 2: But now it's probably out of it's just out of
29:37
Speaker 2: control there. Yeah here, Well, I think he says, is
29:41
Speaker 2: it's called mining shareholders, not or well, we have some
29:47
Speaker 2: experience with that.
29:49
Speaker 3: Yeah, so we first got into this sector and had
29:52
Speaker 3: to learn all the lessons we needed to learn to
29:53
Speaker 3: start really.
29:54
Speaker 2: Making money, right, still learning them, David, Oh, yeah, every
29:58
Speaker 2: single day. Yeah, So keep an eye on Fibonacci numbers.
30:02
Speaker 2: Fifty technically is not a Fibonacci number, but we kind
30:07
Speaker 2: of saw it there almost in silver, right. Yeah.
30:10
Speaker 3: Well, you know silver, I would keep looking at that
30:13
Speaker 3: fifty to fifty five zone. I mean, if it gets
30:15
Speaker 3: down there, I mean, that would be the buying opportunity
30:17
Speaker 3: of a lifetime there as far as.
30:19
Speaker 2: Physical is concerned.
30:20
Speaker 3: But as far as the shares are concerned, they never
30:24
Speaker 3: even came close to catching up. Even when when silver
30:26
Speaker 3: ran up to hunter twenty one dollars an ounce, right,
30:29
Speaker 3: the silver stocks were lagging big time.
30:32
Speaker 2: So now some of them have.
30:33
Speaker 3: Come off, you know, thirty thirty, forty, fifty percent, it's
30:36
Speaker 3: a great time to start accumulating. But yeah, it's that
30:41
Speaker 3: that's where the big leverage is. It's it's in the
30:43
Speaker 3: juniors and in silver juniors especially. You just got to
30:47
Speaker 3: pick the right ones.
30:48
Speaker 2: Hey, well, I would plug your publication, but you're not
30:52
Speaker 2: you're maxed out on your subscribers.
30:56
Speaker 3: Yeah, I am maxed out on my subscribe but I've had,
30:58
Speaker 3: as you can imagine, i had some cancelations over the
31:02
Speaker 3: past few weeks. So on Saturday, I'll be issuing an
31:07
Speaker 3: announcement to the people that have signed up for the
31:10
Speaker 3: waiting list.
31:11
Speaker 2: If you go to my website, you can sign up
31:12
Speaker 2: for the waiting list.
31:14
Speaker 3: So on Saturday morning, I'll be sending out an email
31:17
Speaker 3: to those on the waiting list. It's a first come
31:18
Speaker 3: forort serve basis that ten more ten more positions have
31:23
Speaker 3: been opened up, so there are ten more spaces available
31:26
Speaker 3: that will be available on Saturday.
31:28
Speaker 2: Love it all right, junior minor junkie with a wide
31:31
Speaker 2: dot com and all you guys make sure you sign
31:35
Speaker 2: up become Just try do the trial membership on sub stack.
31:40
Speaker 2: If you don't like it, after seven days, you're canceled.
31:43
Speaker 2: But you'll get my exclusive report which has really been
31:47
Speaker 2: researched out called The Living the Silver Backed Lifestyle. And
31:53
Speaker 2: you know David and like back in the sixty you
31:59
Speaker 2: could buy a car are for roughly thirty five hundred
32:03
Speaker 2: silver dollars. You know, I buy a car now it's
32:07
Speaker 2: like twelve hundred silver dollars. That's a monthly payment for
32:11
Speaker 2: some people one hundred silver dollars.
32:14
Speaker 3: Man, Like I remember, I remember going through my father's
32:18
Speaker 3: change when I was a kid looking for silver dimes, and.
32:23
Speaker 2: Hey, I'll have them. I still have everything I found brilliant. Yeah,
32:26
Speaker 2: well that's the thing, like Rickrel said, well, at some
32:29
Speaker 2: point the Asians, the Indians will sell their silver wrong.
32:34
Speaker 2: Once you start stacking. The only time you stack is
32:37
Speaker 2: you sell is strategic when it hits parabolic highs and
32:43
Speaker 2: you want cash, and then you can buy it back later.
32:47
Speaker 2: That's the only time you sell.
32:49
Speaker 3: I'm concerned, you know, in my in my position, you know,
32:53
Speaker 3: I think the leverage is in the is in the stocks.
32:55
Speaker 3: So that's where that that's where my leverage is. I mean,
32:58
Speaker 3: all the silver that I bought, I bought it in
33:00
Speaker 3: two thousand and three four five and low five dollars
33:03
Speaker 3: an ounce, and I don't plan on selling it. I
33:05
Speaker 3: don't plan I just plan on passing on to my.
33:08
Speaker 2: Son exactly worths eight to ten in two thousand and
33:14
Speaker 2: eight and nine after it crashed out there, you know.
33:19
Speaker 3: So yeah, I mean, yeah, I mean, just like anything
33:22
Speaker 3: in the sector, you buy fishing lines and you sell
33:25
Speaker 3: rhino horns if you need cash, right exactly. It's easy
33:29
Speaker 3: to say, but it's tough to do. It's something you
33:32
Speaker 3: have to learn.
33:33
Speaker 2: Hey, Paul wants tickers, but we don't really mention stocks
33:37
Speaker 2: on the show. It just gets it just gets too difficult.
33:41
Speaker 2: Then people get upset with me when they lose money. Paul,
33:45
Speaker 2: just subscribe to Junior Minor Junkie dot com, get on
33:49
Speaker 2: David's waiting list and subscribe to its Saturday. David's one
33:54
Speaker 2: of the canniest silver analysts out there. If you just
34:01
Speaker 2: hopped on or you came in midstream, we'll be posting
34:05
Speaker 2: the replay probably in a few hours. I got some
34:09
Speaker 2: things to do, so just go back to the substack.
34:12
Speaker 2: You'll see it. If you're on the list. If you
34:15
Speaker 2: haven't subscribed, even just become a free subscriber. You get
34:19
Speaker 2: notifications for all of this. I think this was a
34:22
Speaker 2: good one. I kind of screwed up the last one
34:24
Speaker 2: with Jon Rabino yet again working out the bugs. Yeah,
34:29
Speaker 2: it's a little buggy interface, but it works pretty good anyway. David,
34:34
Speaker 2: thanks for coming on. We will catch up with you later.
34:37
Speaker 2: Thanks for having me. I always great to talk to you.
34:39
Speaker 2: Good luck to everybody.
34:40
Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to carry Letz's Financial Survival Network your
34:44
Speaker 1: solution to today's trying times. For the latest, go to
34:48
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