Latest / AG Bull / AG Squawk AM 9/8/2026 with Jed Sidwell | Wetter Forecasts, Brazilian Soybeans, and Oil near $100

Transcript

AG Squawk AM 9/8/2026 with Jed Sidwell | Wetter Forecasts, Brazilian Soybeans, and Oil near $100 · AG Bull

• 0:09
  SPEAKER_00: Good morning and welcome to Ag Squawk AM.
• 0:11
  SPEAKER_00: Jed Sidwell here, live from Joliet, Illinois.
• 0:15
  SPEAKER_00: Today on this fine Tuesday morning, after a long Labor Day weekend, we're going to be talking about Packer Margins Brazilian soybean harvest and the price of Brant Crude.
• 0:25
  SPEAKER_00: Man, it's skyrocketed here recently.
• 0:27
  SPEAKER_00: We'll get to all of that and more here in a bit.
• 0:55
  SPEAKER_00: Lean hogs were also down$1.15 at$82.30.
• 0:59
  SPEAKER_00: As I quote the grain markets here live, like to pop up our sponsor, plus$500.
• 1:04
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• 1:09
  SPEAKER_00: And as I look here live, the December corn new crop is at$5.37.5.
• 1:14
  SPEAKER_00: Nove beans are at$13.05 and a quarter.
• 1:17
  SPEAKER_00: Chicago D suite is at$743.
• 1:20
  SPEAKER_00: I got the price oil popped up, but I'll get to that here in a little while.
• 1:25
  SPEAKER_00: On the weather discussion for today, we have a lot of positivity to talk about finally on the weather side.
• 1:30
  SPEAKER_00: We've seen a major pattern flip versus Friday.
• 1:33
  SPEAKER_00: It's going to be wetter and cooler trend for the central and southern growing regions with two to four inches of rain hitting the northwestern corn belt and rain finally returning to the parched southern plains as soon as tomorrow.
• 1:45
  SPEAKER_00: The ongoing heat wave of 10 plus degrees above normal and highs over 100 in the southern and central and southern plains is setting to break with temperatures moderating to near or even below normal across the plains and the western corn belt by September 15th.
• 2:04
  SPEAKER_00: This is great news, especially due to the fact that they say the first week of September for the whole United States is one of the absolute hottest on record.
• 2:14
  SPEAKER_00: I met with a bunch of friends this weekend in Manhattan, Kansas for a wedding, and not only was the wedding super, super hot, that was the story from around the country, from the Dakotas all the way down into Texas.
• 2:27
  SPEAKER_00: It has been an absolute scorcher.
• 2:30
  SPEAKER_00: The grain market discussion for today.
• 2:32
  SPEAKER_00: This is going kind of overseas to talk about the safrina soybeans in Brazilian soybeans, excuse me, getting a little tongue-tied for a second.
• 2:44
  SPEAKER_00: The green dots there are when we have seen an El Nino with a Brazilian harvest.
• 2:50
  SPEAKER_00: And most of the time there's a negative connotation that too much rain is going to push out these soybeans.
• 2:56
  SPEAKER_00: Well, as you see there, of the seven times there has been an El Nino and on recent history, four of those, or I guess it'd be six times, four of those have been above the average expectation with regards to yields.
• 3:13
  SPEAKER_00: Oftentimes we just assume, well, too much water is going to be a bad thing.
• 3:17
  SPEAKER_00: Well, if we go back and look at past history, honestly, it's been not bad for that soybean harvest.
• 3:24
  SPEAKER_00: Of course, we can maybe see different things year to year.
• 3:27
  SPEAKER_00: But keep that in mind as some people might be getting, you know, bared up there.
• 3:33
  SPEAKER_00: The livestock markets.
• 3:35
  SPEAKER_00: This was the big discussion over the weekend as we had those two executive orders go out on Friday that affect the livestock space, saying that you know we're going to be able to process our own beef now.
• 3:48
  SPEAKER_00: And Mike Sands and I will get to that.
• 3:50
  SPEAKER_00: I I promise you, here before too long, in our Fat Tuesday show.
• 3:55
  SPEAKER_00: Um, I'll go ahead and pop that up.
• 3:56
  SPEAKER_00: It's on our premium side.
• 3:58
  SPEAKER_00: It's$25 or$250 annually to be on the premium side and watch that Fat Tuesday show.
• 4:04
  SPEAKER_00: And Mike will and I will dissect all of that, look at the statistics actually regarding it, because even though there might be a certain connotation each way, the facts or the statistics maybe don't back a lot of these kind of orders.
• 4:18
  SPEAKER_00: And here's the big one The Packer hasn't been just receiving a ton of the margin in the beef space recently.
• 4:26
  SPEAKER_00: Uh if we look there, uh they've actually kind of been in the red here uh in 2026.
• 4:31
  SPEAKER_00: Now they may kind of get to see a rebound here since the price of you know fat cattle has gone down.
• 4:38
  SPEAKER_00: But it's something to keep in mind.
• 4:40
  SPEAKER_00: And the other thing that I just you know immediately popped into my head, the reason that a lot of cattle feeders don't own their own packing house is due to the scale and the timeline of the cattle industry.
• 4:52
  SPEAKER_00: It's hard to pencil a business model that would take uh, you know, several years if we did like a pharaoh to finish in the cattle side.
• 5:03
  SPEAKER_00: It would it's just not very feasible due to the timeliness and the return on your investment and how long that would take.
• 5:10
  SPEAKER_00: And that has limited our ability to, you know, have packing houses right across the road from feed yards all owned under one entity.
• 5:19
  SPEAKER_00: But like I said, I'll get to that with Mr.
• 5:22
  SPEAKER_00: Mike Sands later on.
• 5:23
  SPEAKER_00: Brent crewed near$100 after strikes on Saudi Energy sites amid renewed Mideast hostilities.
• 5:31
  SPEAKER_00: The tit-for-tat strikes over the weekend that have sent oil higher also pushed up gas prices.
• 5:36
  SPEAKER_00: Goldman Sachs raised its forecasts for Brent and WTI prices by$5 to$85 and$80 a barrel, respectively for December 2026.
• 5:45
  SPEAKER_00: As I look at my quilts here live, WTI crude October right now, as of this morning, is at$93.89.
• 5:55
  SPEAKER_00: Got up there close to$95.
• 5:59
  SPEAKER_00: Well, these are the big things to look out for today.
• 6:03
  SPEAKER_00: In Sport Expections come out at 10 a.m.
• 6:05
  SPEAKER_00: Central, and then after the close today, Crop Progress Report comes out at 3.
• 6:10
  SPEAKER_00: You know, I will make sure and have some comments on that in the morning.
• 6:15
  SPEAKER_00: Well, thank you for watching and thank you for listening.
• 6:18
  SPEAKER_00: Watch Ag Squawk wherever you would like on YouTube, Spotify, Apple Podcasts.
• 6:23
  SPEAKER_00: We live stream this show every single day, 8 15 a.m.
• 6:26
  SPEAKER_00: and 8 15 p.m.
• 6:28
  SPEAKER_00: on X.
• 6:29
  SPEAKER_00: Always happy to have you guys that click on the live stream there to watch.
• 6:33
  SPEAKER_00: Well, that's all I have for you today.
• 6:35
  SPEAKER_00: Make sure and catch everything on the premium side, as well as Mr.
• 6:38
  SPEAKER_00: Davis Michelson this afternoon with AgSquawk P.M.
• 6:42
  SPEAKER_00: He has a great slate of guests lined up for this week.
• 6:45
  SPEAKER_00: Well, I'll catch you tomorrow.
• 6:46
  SPEAKER_00: I'm Jed Sidwell with AgBull Media.
• 6:49
  SPEAKER_00: We're a financial channel that loves agriculture.
• 6:52
  SPEAKER_00: See you then.