Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / Early Picks, Mischief Night & Printed Pam Anderson | NFL Week 14
Transcript
- 0:09Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, presented by DraftKings. The Crown is yours.
- 0:14Speaker 1: We are an Action Network podcast. I'm Brandon Kravitz, back
- 0:17Speaker 1: at it on this fine Tuesday morning. Kendrick Middleton and
- 0:20Speaker 1: the Prime Minister of Degenerate Nation Stuckey, who is very
- 0:24Speaker 1: much on the Men today, back for today's episode. We've
- 0:28Speaker 1: got our Plant the Flag game for Week fourteen, after
- 0:31Speaker 1: the blood bath that was Week thirteen for all of us.
- 0:34Speaker 1: Our official Thursday Night football preview Cowboys Lions should be
- 0:38Speaker 1: a good one, and of course the main event Evans
- 0:41Speaker 1: Tuesday Primer Monday Night Football kind of a snoozer. New
- 0:46Speaker 1: England pulled away early on in this game. Do we
- 0:49Speaker 1: actually feel like we know who this New England Patriots
- 0:55Speaker 1: team is? They do have some impressive wins on the season,
- 0:59Speaker 1: but we're talking about an eleven win team. It feels
- 1:01Speaker 1: like every week they're beating up on the giants of
- 1:05Speaker 1: the world. And here you have Drake May, who, by
- 1:08Speaker 1: the way, right now odds on favorite to win the
- 1:10Speaker 1: NFL MVP at minus one thirty five, has not thrown
- 1:15Speaker 1: for three hundred yards in a single game. Yet I'm
- 1:18Speaker 1: not taking away from his MVP candidacy and saying that
- 1:21Speaker 1: he has been hyper efficient. His long ball is top
- 1:24Speaker 1: notch in the NFL, and he runs the ball as well.
- 1:27Speaker 1: I just wonder how many NFL MVPs at the quarterback
- 1:32Speaker 1: position could go an entire season without throwing for three
- 1:35Speaker 1: hundred yards. It's a bizarre sort of year for New England. Kendra,
- 1:38Speaker 1: you're in the market. Do you feel like you have
- 1:41Speaker 1: a good read on exactly what this team is or
- 1:43Speaker 1: do you think there's still some fraud within them? So?
- 1:48Speaker 2: I think I do know who this team is just
- 1:50Speaker 2: from existing in this space this season. I think that
- 1:54Speaker 2: they are not the most talented team. But I think
- 1:58Speaker 2: we've talked about how we think they like each other, right,
- 2:00Speaker 2: But I think that they're the type of team who
- 2:02Speaker 2: is coached by Mike Vrabel to do the little things
- 2:05Speaker 2: and to do the little things so well that they're
- 2:07Speaker 2: perfect that in combination with Drake May kind of elevating
- 2:11Speaker 2: himself so highly this year. I think that that's what
- 2:14Speaker 2: we're looking at, right. It's like they like each other,
- 2:17Speaker 2: they got the luck out of Drake May, and they're
- 2:19Speaker 2: doing the little things, and they're doing the little things
- 2:21Speaker 2: hard like the physicality. Difference between the Giants and the
- 2:25Speaker 2: Patriots last night is one of those, you know, things
- 2:28Speaker 2: that people consider little but really make a huge difference
- 2:31Speaker 2: down in and down out, you know. So I think
- 2:33Speaker 2: that that to this new England Patriots team is I
- 2:35Speaker 2: think that they're going to continue with the strength of schedule.
- 2:39Speaker 2: They have to be able to do those things and
- 2:41Speaker 2: do those things successfully. I do think at some point
- 2:44Speaker 2: they will slip up and lose a weird game that
- 2:46Speaker 2: they shouldn't. I think they it'll maybe be you know,
- 2:49Speaker 2: I do think that they lose to the Bills. They
- 2:51Speaker 2: have to kind of where the Bills need to be,
- 2:54Speaker 2: and I think later in the year, when you're beat up,
- 2:57Speaker 2: you know, your quarterback's been there season after season. Also
- 3:00Speaker 2: play in cold weather, so there's no advantage there. I
- 3:02Speaker 2: think that they lose that game, but maybe one other
- 3:04Speaker 2: game that's just like a random slip up for them.
- 3:08Speaker 2: But I do think that they make the postseason, probably
- 3:11Speaker 2: a first round exit, depending on who they get, just
- 3:14Speaker 2: because the talent discrepancy, like I said, is there. They
- 3:18Speaker 2: like each other, they play hard, they do the things
- 3:19Speaker 2: they are you know, do well. But not being said,
- 3:22Speaker 2: I think that that's probably where they slip up just
- 3:24Speaker 2: because you can't avoid the talent discrepancy in the postseason
- 3:28Speaker 2: in the NFL.
- 3:29Speaker 1: Very much bloated by an easy schedule throughout the course
- 3:32Speaker 1: of the season. But Stucky, have you seen enough consistency
- 3:35Speaker 1: from them where you feel like, when it actually matters,
- 3:38Speaker 1: this team is clearly going to be in a prime
- 3:40Speaker 1: position heading into the playoffs?
- 3:42Speaker 3: Are they going to be a team that you believe in.
- 3:44Speaker 1: When we've got we've got lines coming out with the
- 3:48Speaker 1: Patriots against teams like the like the Bills, like potentially
- 3:52Speaker 1: Kansas City Chiefs or or an LA Chargers, where you're
- 3:56Speaker 1: in that do or die situation, Patriots probably gonna be favored.
- 4:01Speaker 3: Are we getting to the point where we trust them
- 4:03Speaker 3: in those situations?
- 4:05Speaker 1: Or are they gonna be like last year's Minnesota team
- 4:08Speaker 1: where the record doesn't necessarily tell the story of who
- 4:12Speaker 1: they really are.
- 4:14Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, they're obviously not as good as the
- 4:16Speaker 4: record that but I mean they benefited from one of
- 4:19Speaker 4: the easiest schedules in the NFL. I mean, look at
- 4:21Speaker 4: the defenses they faced. They've also won some close games.
- 4:24Speaker 4: You know, you can go look back to that Falcons
- 4:26Speaker 4: game that could have went either way, and then they've
- 4:28Speaker 4: had a couple of games at home that just flipped
- 4:30Speaker 4: on special teams like that Giants. The Giants were like
- 4:32Speaker 4: minus seventeen in the first half on special teams that
- 4:35Speaker 4: they gave up a pund return for a touchdown. Although
- 4:37Speaker 4: you have to give credit to Marcus Jones, He's an
- 4:38Speaker 4: electric pund returner. And like Kendrick said, the Patriots do
- 4:43Speaker 4: do all those little things right. And I think Rabel's
- 4:45Speaker 4: very good in game which gives them a little edge
- 4:47Speaker 4: as far as in game management. But I mean last
- 4:50Speaker 4: night it was a pond return for a touchdown. I
- 4:52Speaker 4: dropped a dropped fumble kick return and then young Way,
- 4:56Speaker 4: who I don't know what, I've never seen that before
- 4:58Speaker 4: in my life. He just kicked the ground and missed
- 5:01Speaker 4: the ball by two feet. I guess you don't get
- 5:04Speaker 4: you don't get dopted for a missed gilgal on that,
- 5:06Speaker 4: so maybe he just knew he was going to miss it,
- 5:08Speaker 4: so he just said, you know what, Gil, and you
- 5:10Speaker 4: take a sack. So they got like plus seventeen points.
- 5:13Speaker 4: Especially the same thing happened in a Panthers game earlier
- 5:15Speaker 4: the season, So yeah, they've benefited from an easy schedule.
- 5:18Speaker 4: I mean, I think ultimately, I mean, if you it's
- 5:21Speaker 4: pretty funny if you look from like, for example, from
- 5:23Speaker 4: a DVA perspective, which adjusts for opponent, the Patriots are
- 5:28Speaker 4: like fourteenth and the fourteen to fifteen somewhere around there,
- 5:31Speaker 4: like a league average team. The Bears, who are the
- 5:34Speaker 4: other one seed, are like eighteenth nineteenth, slightly below league
- 5:38Speaker 4: average team. Those are the two one seeds in the NFL.
- 5:41Speaker 4: So you can't judge everything by wins and losses. I
- 5:43Speaker 4: think the market it's kind of where similar to where
- 5:45Speaker 4: I have the Patriots. They're like a plus two the Patriots,
- 5:48Speaker 4: so they're like they're like a I don't know, like
- 5:49Speaker 4: a two point favorite over an average team on a
- 5:52Speaker 4: neutral field. So yeah, there are a couple of points
- 5:55Speaker 4: better than an average team. Do I trust them? I mean,
- 6:00Speaker 4: here's the thing they've been. They've had an East schedule,
- 6:02Speaker 4: they've been really healthy. Now they're starting to finally deal
- 6:04Speaker 4: with some injuries, so we'll see how that plays out.
- 6:07Speaker 4: The good news is they have a buy coming up,
- 6:10Speaker 4: so they survived up up until their bye week. I
- 6:13Speaker 4: think they probably lose the Bills, but you know, coin
- 6:16Speaker 4: flippish game probably lose at Baltimore. But all they have
- 6:19Speaker 4: to do is beat the Jets and Dolphins. No matter
- 6:21Speaker 4: what else happens, they win the division. And obviously they
- 6:24Speaker 4: have their sight set on the one seat as well.
- 6:26Speaker 4: But look, they they're well coached the one if they
- 6:32Speaker 4: get healthy. Their run defense is good, their defense still
- 6:34Speaker 4: has some holes. Their offensive line still isn't great. It's
- 6:37Speaker 4: not the most talented teams Kendra alluded to. But Drake May,
- 6:40Speaker 4: I mean he's I'm a believer in Drake May. I
- 6:44Speaker 4: think most people are. He's starting to establish himself as
- 6:48Speaker 4: one of the better quarterbacks about His deep ball is
- 6:50Speaker 4: a weapon. I mean, his placement of the deep ball
- 6:53Speaker 4: can flip a game no matter who he's playing. So
- 6:56Speaker 4: you know, and if you look at the AFC right now,
- 6:59Speaker 4: you say, like, do you trust the Patriots, I mean,
- 7:02Speaker 4: who are you?
- 7:03Speaker 1: Like?
- 7:03Speaker 4: Yeah, this is the team I trust. I mean the
- 7:07Speaker 4: Chiefs are not even favored to make the playoffs. We'll
- 7:10Speaker 4: see if the Ravens make it. The Bills have flaws,
- 7:13Speaker 4: I mean, but like the other AFC teams right now,
- 7:16Speaker 4: the Jags, the Colts, the Broncos, like, this isn't a
- 7:23Speaker 4: murderers ruh. This isn't the AFA of two years ago.
- 7:26Speaker 4: So can the Patriots make a run? Sure? I mean
- 7:28Speaker 4: get in in the AFC and you can make a run.
- 7:31Speaker 4: So yeah, I think they're bound as good as their record.
- 7:33Speaker 4: But they're a good football team.
- 7:36Speaker 1: They're favored right now to make it out of the
- 7:38Speaker 1: AFC at plus four hundred on DraftKings. They're either going
- 7:41Speaker 1: to end up with the one or the two seed
- 7:42Speaker 1: the way that things are looking right now. If they
- 7:45Speaker 1: were the two seed, they probably end up taking on
- 7:48Speaker 1: a Buffalo team that they've already shown that they can beat.
- 7:50Speaker 1: That's gonna be a tough matchup for them in a
- 7:53Speaker 1: playoff scenario because of what I'm talking about, how much
- 7:56Speaker 1: will you actually trust Drake May and this team that
- 7:58Speaker 1: doesn't feel like they're as good as their record. But
- 8:00Speaker 1: here's the thing, that path that you talk about. Let's
- 8:02Speaker 1: say they end up as the one seed and you
- 8:05Speaker 1: get a three six matchup Colts Jags, Colts knockoff Jacksonville. Now,
- 8:11Speaker 1: all of a sudden, you're into Round two already with
- 8:15Speaker 1: your bye, taking on a Colts team that also is
- 8:19Speaker 1: it very trustworthy. So the path of the AFC Championship
- 8:22Speaker 1: game just depending.
- 8:24Speaker 4: On the Nickson Denver waiting for you, which isn't that scary,
- 8:27Speaker 4: But yeah, you bring up a good point. The thing
- 8:30Speaker 4: that is one of the biggest wild the two biggest
- 8:34Speaker 4: wild cards about and it's in related to the wild card,
- 8:39Speaker 4: but do the Chiefs end up making it so Chiefs
- 8:41Speaker 4: Texans huge game because then if you like and then
- 8:45Speaker 4: do the Patriots get the one or the two? So
- 8:47Speaker 4: Patriots have they're by then a couple tough games because
- 8:50Speaker 4: if you get that too, and you get you end
- 8:53Speaker 4: up getting either Buffalo or Kansas City or Baltimore. That's
- 8:58Speaker 4: a brutal job. Well Baltimore on can really get in
- 9:00Speaker 4: if they win the division, so they'll they'll be a
- 9:03Speaker 4: four their favorite to win the divisions. They'll be a
- 9:06Speaker 4: four seed. And as a Ravens fan, someone I bet
- 9:09Speaker 4: the Ravens twenty twenty three to one to win the
- 9:12Speaker 4: Super Bowl win. They bottomed out before Lamar came back.
- 9:15Speaker 4: Lamar needs to get help. I need to see it
- 9:17Speaker 4: from the first. But the good news with the Ravens
- 9:19Speaker 4: if they're that four seed, right like, you win that
- 9:22Speaker 4: first game, you're going to Denver, which I don't think
- 9:26Speaker 4: anyone's really that scared of as far as like who
- 9:29Speaker 4: one seeds could be or you're going to New England. Right,
- 9:31Speaker 4: It's not that they're not the scariest. The potential one
- 9:35Speaker 4: seeds in the NFC aren't the scariest. But where does
- 9:37Speaker 4: Buffalo end up? Does Buffalo end up as the five
- 9:40Speaker 4: the six of seven? Does Kansas City get in? So
- 9:42Speaker 4: a lot to shake out in the AFC. But if
- 9:44Speaker 4: this ends up with and look, the Bills aren't a
- 9:46Speaker 4: guaranteed to get in and either of this or the Ravens,
- 9:49Speaker 4: can you imagine an AFC playoffs? It's possible without Allen, Lamar,
- 9:54Speaker 4: Mahomes and Burrow. I mean there is a possibility.
- 9:59Speaker 2: That ap it's possible, but there's no way that all
- 10:02Speaker 2: four of them miss. Now.
- 10:03Speaker 4: I don't think it happens, but it's pretty cool like
- 10:06Speaker 4: it right now.
- 10:07Speaker 2: We would talk about this for the rest of eternity
- 10:09Speaker 2: as people who love football, truly, we would talk about
- 10:12Speaker 2: this year in particular forever.
- 10:15Speaker 1: Yeah, it'd be one of those years where it reshapes
- 10:19Speaker 1: the way that we talk about seasons prior to them
- 10:22Speaker 1: starting go well, just because you have one of the
- 10:24Speaker 1: best quarterbacks in the NFL, No longer guarantee that you're
- 10:27Speaker 1: gonna make it to the playoffs or make a deep run.
- 10:29Speaker 1: I think it would change the way that we view
- 10:31Speaker 1: the futures market.
- 10:33Speaker 3: Plus four hundred. Yeah, I mean, anything's possible at this point.
- 10:37Speaker 1: I did stab on Patriots Rams exact matchup.
- 10:41Speaker 4: Please night.
- 10:44Speaker 1: Well, that's the thing I sort of had this day
- 10:46Speaker 1: dream of, like we're gonna end up sitting there on
- 10:48Speaker 1: Super Bowl Sunday going, really again, we've got the Patriots
- 10:53Speaker 1: in the Rams. Can we get away from this matchup?
- 10:57Speaker 1: This would be the third time in my life we've
- 10:59Speaker 1: seen that.
- 10:59Speaker 2: But I was in college here when that happened. I
- 11:02Speaker 2: have pictures of like the downtown of my campus after
- 11:06Speaker 2: the Patriots won the Super Bowl and how insane it was.
- 11:09Speaker 2: It was absolutely like nuts up here anytime anybody would
- 11:13Speaker 2: win a championship.
- 11:15Speaker 1: Plus four hundred. You willing to take a stab before
- 11:17Speaker 1: we move on, Kendra, Yeah, the Patriots to make me
- 11:20Speaker 1: absolutely not okay. The Eagles offensive coordinator his house got
- 11:25Speaker 1: egged after the loss to the Bear's highest salaried offense
- 11:28Speaker 1: in the NFL ranks twenty fourth in yards, twenty third
- 11:32Speaker 1: in passing, twenty second in rushing, nineteenth in scoring, but still, guys, eggs.
- 11:39Speaker 1: In this economy, we have to find a cheaper item
- 11:43Speaker 1: to ruin people's houses with.
- 11:46Speaker 2: I know it, I've done it. You fork somebody's house.
- 11:49Speaker 2: You buy a thousand plastic forks at the dollar store
- 11:53Speaker 2: for four dollars, and you go and stick forks all
- 11:57Speaker 2: over someone's yard. And then the joke is that they
- 11:59Speaker 2: just have to go out there and pick them up,
- 12:02Speaker 2: and that's annoying.
- 12:03Speaker 4: Did you guys do Mischief Night the night before Halloween
- 12:05Speaker 4: when you were growing up? No?
- 12:07Speaker 2: What the hell didn't.
- 12:09Speaker 4: You didn't do that?
- 12:09Speaker 2: Oh?
- 12:10Speaker 4: My god? One of the most fun nights.
- 12:13Speaker 3: Dn't.
- 12:13Speaker 4: This is like a this might be like a Tri
- 12:15Speaker 4: State aira thing, or maybe just a Delko thing outside
- 12:19Speaker 4: of Philly, but Mischief Night. So yeah, the night before Halloween.
- 12:25Speaker 4: It's October thirtieth. Every night you would go out and
- 12:28Speaker 4: you would just terrorize neighborhoods. And so we would go
- 12:32Speaker 4: out with we would have book bags full of eggs
- 12:37Speaker 4: and then duffel bags full of toilet paper, and then
- 12:40Speaker 4: we would just go we were off for like four
- 12:43Speaker 4: or five hours. We would just go neighborhood to neighborhood
- 12:45Speaker 4: and we just egg houses and then cover the trees
- 12:49Speaker 4: people's trees and bushes and toilet paper. The next morning hilarious,
- 12:53Speaker 4: like just walking around and seeing all the houses covered
- 12:56Speaker 4: in toilet paper. Uh So I'm not surprised that this
- 12:58Speaker 4: happened in because that's that that is a thing.
- 13:02Speaker 1: But that.
- 13:04Speaker 4: Eggs are when you were really little, you used to
- 13:07Speaker 4: when you were too little to like really cause trouble,
- 13:11Speaker 4: you would just we would just ding down ditch when
- 13:14Speaker 4: you were like in like fourth fifth grade, and that
- 13:15Speaker 4: was always fun. You would like think that you're someone's
- 13:17Speaker 4: gonna come out and murder you when you were like
- 13:19Speaker 4: running and hiding. But yeah, they the Eagles need that.
- 13:23Speaker 4: I don't even know what the question was, but the
- 13:24Speaker 4: Eagles offense is wasn't a question.
- 13:26Speaker 1: It was more of a statement on the price of
- 13:28Speaker 1: eggs more than anything else.
- 13:30Speaker 4: Yeah. Yeah, but the Eagles offenses is broken. It's I mean,
- 13:35Speaker 4: think about it this. The Bears had no linebackers in
- 13:38Speaker 4: that game. All their linebackers were hurt, and it's not
- 13:41Speaker 4: a very good defense. Their their secondary is getting healthier.
- 13:44Speaker 4: They still couldn't run the ball. They still went a
- 13:46Speaker 4: whole half without doing anything. This happens every week. I
- 13:49Speaker 4: mean there is I this is We're in week fourteen.
- 13:52Speaker 4: Now there you are who you are at this point,
- 13:56Speaker 4: Like especially when there's just no signs, you get like
- 13:58Speaker 4: a little you had, like a couple of little sparks.
- 14:00Speaker 4: It's like, oh, the second half against the Rams, Like
- 14:04Speaker 4: where else has this offense done? Much? Every week it's
- 14:08Speaker 4: the same thing. I don't think that the Eagles are
- 14:12Speaker 4: a serious contender this year with their offense until I
- 14:15Speaker 4: see it consistently fixed and until I do. That's my
- 14:19Speaker 4: opinion on the Eagles.
- 14:21Speaker 2: I think that them, the Rams and the Ravens probably
- 14:24Speaker 2: just have played way too many playoff games, like they're exhausted,
- 14:27Speaker 2: you know. I think that we're probably just seeing like
- 14:28Speaker 2: a dip of the exhaustion.
- 14:31Speaker 1: It's probably not a coincidence that all of those teams
- 14:35Speaker 1: feel like they look the same on paper and then
- 14:39Speaker 1: they're not the same when you watch them.
- 14:41Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean the Eagles, the coordinator is it was
- 14:44Speaker 4: a big deal. It was one of the things I
- 14:45Speaker 4: was worried, but a lot of people were worried about
- 14:46Speaker 4: coming into the year. I mean, we saw this a
- 14:47Speaker 4: couple of years ago with the Eagles offense under Brian Johnson.
- 14:51Speaker 4: The offensive line also is in as good. You know,
- 14:54Speaker 4: Lane Johnson's been hurt. They've had a number of guys
- 14:56Speaker 4: who have been hurt. I think they missed backed in
- 14:59Speaker 4: the two year so that the run game just isn't
- 15:02Speaker 4: as good. The defense now is trending up, although they
- 15:06Speaker 4: just got that. That Bears running rushing offense right now
- 15:10Speaker 4: is on another level. Ben Johnson has that humming. But
- 15:14Speaker 4: I still think the defense will be fine for the Eagles,
- 15:16Speaker 4: but the offense, like, you're not gonna win, You're not
- 15:22Speaker 4: going So the what the Eagles have to do because
- 15:24Speaker 4: because of their flawed offense is their best path because
- 15:30Speaker 4: I just can't see them winning like four playoff games
- 15:36Speaker 4: with that offense going into hibernation for a whole half.
- 15:40Speaker 4: So what they have to do is, I didn't get
- 15:43Speaker 4: what gets in the best chance. They're gonna have to
- 15:44Speaker 4: find some solutions. But they got to get the one
- 15:46Speaker 4: seed and losing to the Bears didn't help. They do
- 15:50Speaker 4: have the tiebreaker of the Rams, but now they're one
- 15:51Speaker 4: back of the Rams and the Bears. If you get
- 15:53Speaker 4: that one seed, you get the skip a playoff game.
- 15:55Speaker 4: You just win two home games get to the super Bowl. Obviously,
- 15:58Speaker 4: anything can happen in the Super Bowl, but that that
- 16:01Speaker 4: loss to the Bears was detrimental for for many reasons,
- 16:05Speaker 4: because I do think that the Eagles really need that one.
- 16:07Speaker 3: Seed, and they've got land mines everywhere in the NFC.
- 16:11Speaker 5: This is not because you know, you don't get the
- 16:13Speaker 5: two seed like you could get the you could get
- 16:15Speaker 5: the Packers or the Seahawks or the Niners, the Rams,
- 16:19Speaker 5: the line like stuff.
- 16:21Speaker 2: He just got so passionate he had to sit up
- 16:23Speaker 2: out of his charing cross his legs.
- 16:24Speaker 3: But the NFC is not the The NFC will do
- 16:27Speaker 3: that to people. Can Yeah, the.
- 16:29Speaker 4: NFC now is like what the a C used to be. Like,
- 16:31Speaker 4: there's no now. Granted we just talked about the SIC
- 16:34Speaker 4: could have some of those top teams sneaking to get
- 16:36Speaker 4: the six or seven, but you're you're not getting a
- 16:38Speaker 4: free pass in the first round of the NFC playoffs.
- 16:42Speaker 4: That Wildcar weekend is going to be crazy, so especially.
- 16:46Speaker 1: Because the Sade Coots baby, oh yeah, I think the
- 16:50Speaker 1: Panthers look like they might make the playoffs. Who knows
- 16:52Speaker 1: what the Bucks could be. One of those two teams
- 16:54Speaker 1: will end up being out doubt they'll both get in.
- 16:57Speaker 4: Yeah, play each other again twice?
- 16:59Speaker 2: I think two times, right, Yeah, I think that they
- 17:01Speaker 2: end the season with each other, and then like two
- 17:03Speaker 2: weeks before that, while we're.
- 17:04Speaker 1: On the Eagles for a moment. Uh and well you've
- 17:07Speaker 1: got Thursday night football preview coming up. Our plant the
- 17:09Speaker 1: Flag game, Evans Primer. Is still a lot to get
- 17:12Speaker 1: to here on the episode, justin Herbert is day to
- 17:14Speaker 1: day after getting surgery on his hand. Kind of feels
- 17:17Speaker 1: like the odds makers are playing the middle with this line.
- 17:20Speaker 1: The Eagles are two and a half point road favorites here, Stucky,
- 17:24Speaker 1: Is that how you see it as far as the
- 17:26Speaker 1: way the line is set right now, hard to put
- 17:30Speaker 1: any action on this game until we know what's going
- 17:32Speaker 1: on with Herbert.
- 17:33Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean I think he's going to play, but
- 17:35Speaker 4: there obviously is some uncertainty. What's the ball security going
- 17:39Speaker 4: to be? Like, you know, he obviously just is a
- 17:43Speaker 4: higher injury risk, like if something happens to it and
- 17:46Speaker 4: he has to come out. And then you get Trey Lance.
- 17:48Speaker 4: I'm assuming you'll.
- 17:49Speaker 2: See Tree Lance to go to the preseason.
- 17:51Speaker 4: I'm assuming you'll get Tree lancing goal line packages when
- 17:55Speaker 4: some goal line packages, some goal line looks. But yeah,
- 17:59Speaker 4: I mean I would I would assume that if Herbert,
- 18:04Speaker 4: you know, I'll tell you what I make it. If
- 18:07Speaker 4: Herbert was in and like there was no questions. I
- 18:11Speaker 4: mean this, I think that this game would be like, remember,
- 18:15Speaker 4: the Chargers don't have much of a home field, like you,
- 18:17Speaker 4: there might be more Eagles fans, I don't know, even
- 18:19Speaker 4: though it's across the country. Yeah, I mean I think
- 18:24Speaker 4: that this line would be like one with a healthy.
- 18:27Speaker 3: Herbert plus one Chargers.
- 18:31Speaker 4: Yeah, probably Eagles minus one. Ish The biggest like, can
- 18:35Speaker 4: the Eagles defensive line? This is the biggest concern if you, like,
- 18:39Speaker 4: if you're betting the charters, and then why the hand
- 18:41Speaker 4: becomes a bigger issue because you're behind a much aligned
- 18:45Speaker 4: offensive line that's completely broken and then you have a
- 18:49Speaker 4: hand injury. Now granted it's not your throwing him, but
- 18:51Speaker 4: now you're going up against the Eagles defensive line. That
- 18:55Speaker 4: that could be really problematic. But it's hard for me
- 18:58Speaker 4: to not see the Eagles offense not going into complete
- 19:02Speaker 4: hibernation for at least a half against a very game
- 19:06Speaker 4: Chargers defense. And it doesn't even matter who the defense is,
- 19:09Speaker 4: Like the Cowboys defense. I know they're trending up, but
- 19:11Speaker 4: the Eagles just didn't score for all half. The Bears defense,
- 19:14Speaker 4: they just didn't score for a whole half. It doesn't
- 19:16Speaker 4: matter who they play, so and the Chargers defense is
- 19:20Speaker 4: better than those teams. So yeah, I think that this
- 19:24Speaker 4: is a little bit of a ahead from odds makers
- 19:28Speaker 4: because they're they're definitely is some uncertainty, but I do
- 19:29Speaker 4: expect him to ply.
- 19:30Speaker 1: But we'll see some more great analysis from the Favorites
- 19:34Speaker 1: coming your way momentarily. But first let's kick it over
- 19:37Speaker 1: to Kendrim Middleton for a word about DraftKings.
- 19:40Speaker 2: The Favorites podcast is sponsored by DraftKings and in partnership
- 19:44Speaker 2: with DraftKings, our listeners can get a great offer right now.
- 19:47Speaker 2: New customers can bet five dollars and get two hundred
- 19:50Speaker 2: dollars in bonus bets. That's right, New customers can turn
- 19:53Speaker 2: five bucks into two hundred if your bet wins paid
- 19:56Speaker 2: instantly in bonus bets. If sports betting is not yet
- 20:00Speaker 2: available in your state, don't worry. You can still join
- 20:02Speaker 2: in on all the fun with DraftKings Daily Fantasy Sports
- 20:05Speaker 2: and have the shot to win cash prizes to get
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- 20:14Speaker 2: The crown is yours?
- 20:16Speaker 3: All right, Kendra? Before we get back at it, what's
- 20:19Speaker 3: on your mind today?
- 20:20Speaker 4: What sell could you be?
- 20:31Speaker 2: Okay? I don't know if you guys saw this last night.
- 20:34Speaker 2: I took a screenshot of it because a lot of
- 20:36Speaker 2: people got got by this. There were a couple of
- 20:39Speaker 2: these like aggregate accounts and then like some of the
- 20:41Speaker 2: troll accounts last night during the game, and one of
- 20:44Speaker 2: the bigger ones tweeted hashtag Giants defensive end. Abdul Carter
- 20:49Speaker 2: will miss the first drive tonight for disciplinary reasons after
- 20:52Speaker 2: getting caught watching porn and a team meeting when his
- 20:56Speaker 2: headphones disconnected. So many of these media accounts got got
- 21:01Speaker 2: by this last night. It was unreal. I don't know
- 21:04Speaker 2: if you guys saw this, but I can't stop digging
- 21:07Speaker 2: into the tweets of the people who got got by this.
- 21:09Speaker 2: Like Abdul Carter was watching porn in a team meeting
- 21:13Speaker 2: piece but.
- 21:13Speaker 4: Jenny was benched, and then he said after the game,
- 21:15Speaker 4: no comment, shit happens, which was so funny that these
- 21:21Speaker 4: two things happened that no one will say why he
- 21:24Speaker 4: was suspended. Were not suspended, but he didn't start, And yeah,
- 21:29Speaker 4: that was very funny, Like a troll account tweeted.
- 21:32Speaker 1: That and the about Yeah, what would be the would
- 21:35Speaker 1: that be the proper response disciplinary action?
- 21:40Speaker 4: If you're watching porn in a team meeting, yeah, you're
- 21:43Speaker 4: not gonna get suspended for a game, but you probably
- 21:45Speaker 4: don't start. It's hard to imagine he was doing that, but.
- 21:50Speaker 2: Yeah, I would imagine you, guys, I went to college
- 21:53Speaker 2: when people would open their laptops and stuff would still
- 21:56Speaker 2: be playing because they forgot to close it out. If
- 21:59Speaker 2: I had a nickel for every time it happened to me,
- 22:01Speaker 2: I would have two nickels, which isn't a lot, but
- 22:03Speaker 2: it's weird that it happened twice.
- 22:04Speaker 1: Yeah, that is that has always close out your browser. People,
- 22:07Speaker 1: it's not hard. There's a big ex at the top
- 22:10Speaker 1: right of the screen. Just take care of your business.
- 22:15Speaker 2: So that's what's on my mind.
- 22:17Speaker 3: I appreciate that I did not see that. It is amazing.
- 22:20Speaker 1: I feel like you and I live in different sectors
- 22:23Speaker 1: of the Internet. Every single week. When I talked to Gendre,
- 22:26Speaker 1: whether it is on the podcast or off of the podcast.
- 22:35Speaker 4: I've never had a laptop happened. The closest I came
- 22:38Speaker 4: to something like that happening was when I was in
- 22:42Speaker 4: like seventh grade. Oh dude, no, I was just looking up.
- 22:50Speaker 6: I don't know.
- 22:50Speaker 4: It was probably porn, like just general porn, or it
- 22:53Speaker 4: was probably just like back.
- 22:54Speaker 2: Then, I mean Google search for big titties.
- 22:58Speaker 4: Yeah, it was. I just know that it was not
- 23:02Speaker 4: good or why I wasn't supposed to look. But then
- 23:04Speaker 4: I because my mom wasn't home yet, and then I
- 23:06Speaker 4: fell asleep on the couch and then I woke up
- 23:10Speaker 4: and my mom was on the computer and I was like, oh,
- 23:12Speaker 4: I didn't X out, I don't think, so my mom
- 23:14Speaker 4: had to x out and then luckily she didn't say anything,
- 23:17Speaker 4: but it was very awkward. I pretended to sleep for
- 23:19Speaker 4: like four hours longer because I didn't want to like
- 23:21Speaker 4: face her. And yeah, I will never forget that I
- 23:28Speaker 4: learned my lesson young.
- 23:29Speaker 3: I have a very similar story.
- 23:31Speaker 1: I'm not going to bother telling it because it's basically
- 23:33Speaker 1: a copy and paste, but yeah, I think, uh, I
- 23:36Speaker 1: think every seventh.
- 23:37Speaker 2: Three D we read right now Kravits this.
- 23:39Speaker 1: Was it was Dan Anderson, and it was a print
- 23:42Speaker 1: out on the family printer, Okay, and I found I
- 23:47Speaker 1: found it later in a different room than where I
- 23:50Speaker 1: had it, and it was displayed like we got you.
- 23:57Speaker 3: It has never been. This is why my face is
- 24:00Speaker 3: this read this is discredible.
- 24:04Speaker 2: I'm gonna you, guys.
- 24:05Speaker 3: I'm.
- 24:08Speaker 4: Is hilarious.
- 24:09Speaker 2: My face hurt.
- 24:12Speaker 3: For the younger audience, you guys do there's probably not
- 24:14Speaker 3: even color was it wasn't it was flack.
- 24:20Speaker 4: The struggle that kids don't know about these days.
- 24:23Speaker 2: Modern day Pamela Anderson happening in an NFL meeting, You guys,
- 24:27Speaker 2: that's exactly what you maybe my tinfoil hat is on.
- 24:31Speaker 1: I think the important note here is that kids today
- 24:33Speaker 1: do not understand the prime pam Anderson in black and white.
- 24:41Speaker 3: We had to work for it back in the day.
- 24:42Speaker 2: Okay, kids, I do have When my grandpa died, I
- 24:49Speaker 2: was cleaning out his house and my inheritance was a
- 24:51Speaker 2: Winston Racing snapback and his vintage porn mags and full Bush.
- 24:56Speaker 2: Those are my coffee table books in my house.
- 25:01Speaker 4: And Battleship.
- 25:01Speaker 2: I see, yeah, yeah, yeah, we yeah. Anyways, So.
- 25:08Speaker 3: Lions minus three on Thursday night.
- 25:10Speaker 1: Football's ticking on the Dallas Cowboys, total sitting at fifty four.
- 25:14Speaker 1: The two Thanksgiving featured squads squaring off, and it feels
- 25:18Speaker 1: like these two are headed in opposite directions. I'm sorry
- 25:22Speaker 1: there was no smooth transition. I'm just ripping the band
- 25:25Speaker 1: aid off. No surprise here. The bets and the money
- 25:28Speaker 1: are pouring in on the Dallas Cowboys. They feel like
- 25:31Speaker 1: the more fun bets. However, I mean, the trends are
- 25:36Speaker 1: still out there for this Lions team Campbell Golf, still
- 25:41Speaker 1: streaking after a loss. They've won fourteen in a row
- 25:44Speaker 1: back to twenty twenty two, thirteen and one ats in
- 25:47Speaker 1: the last fourteen after a loss. So this is very
- 25:51Speaker 1: much current form Dallas versus trends and basic betting logic
- 25:57Speaker 1: on the Lions.
- 25:58Speaker 3: And I'm honestly not or which way to tilt. Kendrick.
- 26:02Speaker 1: Do you have an early lean on this game Thursday
- 26:05Speaker 1: Night Football?
- 26:07Speaker 2: Yeah, listen, Like, the Cowboys are fun. I'm a Jerry
- 26:09Speaker 2: Jones hater, but they're fun right now. They're they're even
- 26:13Speaker 2: though they killed my bet the other day, like they're
- 26:15Speaker 2: entertaining the thing. For me, if the Lions were healthy,
- 26:18Speaker 2: I would like the Lions in this spot, but seventy
- 26:21Speaker 2: percent of their offense is on the injury report. So
- 26:25Speaker 2: I just it's hard for me to sit here and
- 26:27Speaker 2: pick a side with a team with momentum who got
- 26:30Speaker 2: better at the trade deadline, And if it weren't for
- 26:33Speaker 2: you know, some of these silly little things that the
- 26:35Speaker 2: Cowboys tend to do, Dak would be having a career year.
- 26:38Speaker 2: So it's hard for me to sit here right now
- 26:40Speaker 2: on a day where I don't have an injury report
- 26:42Speaker 2: in front of me and kind of give like an
- 26:43Speaker 2: eloquent take on this. But the Lions are just injured
- 26:47Speaker 2: and the Cowboys are finding momentum at a good time.
- 26:51Speaker 2: I will probably circle back to this game once this
- 26:54Speaker 2: injury report is finalized, but right now, I just I can't.
- 26:58Speaker 2: I can't get to the window on either.
- 26:59Speaker 1: Side, trends or momentum. Which side do you lean, Stuckey, Yeah,
- 27:04Speaker 1: I mean I.
- 27:05Speaker 4: Don't these Lions trends I've been saying for the month,
- 27:07Speaker 4: like put in the bed. This isn't the same Lions team,
- 27:10Speaker 4: Like yeah, yeah, I mean they won after a loss
- 27:12Speaker 4: against the Eagles, but they should have lost to the
- 27:14Speaker 4: Giants at home and didn't come close to covering. And
- 27:18Speaker 4: they didn't cover at home against the Packers. And that's
- 27:22Speaker 4: two straight games at home. They haven't covered usually this team,
- 27:25Speaker 4: and they haven't covered three in a row. This team
- 27:28Speaker 4: is a covering wagon. What's wrong with the offensive line
- 27:30Speaker 4: is not the same. They have tons of injuries on offense,
- 27:32Speaker 4: They have injuries in the back end of the defense.
- 27:34Speaker 4: The play calling isn't the same. Look at what Ben
- 27:36Speaker 4: Johnson's doing with Chicago. That's not happening in Detroit. This
- 27:39Speaker 4: is not the same Lions team. And you know, like
- 27:46Speaker 4: and Kendrick's right, like, well, here's the thing. There's you
- 27:49Speaker 4: could these two teams are head in an opposite directions.
- 27:51Speaker 4: Like the Cowboys offense is electric. I mean, Pickens has
- 27:53Speaker 4: been incredible. Jack's playing at an MVP level that Clayton
- 27:58Speaker 4: Adams higher was amazing. Like the their run game has
- 28:00Speaker 4: been a good complimentary piece when no one, including myself,
- 28:04Speaker 4: thought that was going to be the case. But you
- 28:06Speaker 4: got Lamb ferguson Dak Pickens. That offense is gonna score
- 28:09Speaker 4: on anybody. And then it's a defense that's trending up
- 28:12Speaker 4: because you know, you added Quinn Williams, you got a
- 28:14Speaker 4: bunch of other pieces in the secondary and the linebacker
- 28:17Speaker 4: back healthy. So the run defense is now formidable and
- 28:21Speaker 4: they can get pressure.
- 28:22Speaker 2: Now.
- 28:23Speaker 4: The pass defense still has some holes and some questions.
- 28:27Speaker 4: But are the Lions gonna be able to take advantage
- 28:29Speaker 4: like throwing to like what Tom Kennedy, I mean, Sam
- 28:32Speaker 4: Laporta is a big loss. Their offensive line has tons of.
- 28:35Speaker 2: Injuries, respect Isaac tess Law.
- 28:38Speaker 4: Yeah, but they have I mean net Rock right, their
- 28:40Speaker 4: backup tight end is now probably out. Is Aman Raj
- 28:44Speaker 4: gonna play?
- 28:46Speaker 6: I don't know.
- 28:46Speaker 4: That's huge. So here's the thing. These two teams are
- 28:49Speaker 4: headed in opposite directions. Like I don't think the Lions
- 28:52Speaker 4: are gonna make the playoffs. This game is I think
- 28:55Speaker 4: this game is an elimination game. Every game the Cowboys
- 28:58Speaker 4: need because they set themselves so far behind the almost
- 29:00Speaker 4: every game for the Cowboys as a must win. If
- 29:02Speaker 4: the Lions lose this game, they drop to seven and six,
- 29:05Speaker 4: a place you don't want to be in the NFC.
- 29:08Speaker 4: And they go to the Rams next, and you know,
- 29:12Speaker 4: they go to Chicago to close the year. They go
- 29:14Speaker 4: to Minnesota, but they already lost to the Vikings. Not
- 29:16Speaker 4: an easy place to play. I think they're done if
- 29:19Speaker 4: they lose this game, but a lot of injuries. But
- 29:21Speaker 4: here's the thing. The line, the look at line, which
- 29:23Speaker 4: it's not the most efficient market, but it gives you
- 29:26Speaker 4: a general read of where the market is on some
- 29:28Speaker 4: of these teams. Was six six and a half. So
- 29:31Speaker 4: this is a big adjustment down Now we're talking three.
- 29:35Speaker 4: I think it's the correct adjustment, but I wouldn't be
- 29:37Speaker 4: running to bet the Cowboys at three. But I'm also
- 29:42Speaker 4: not betting the lines. I got this think three is
- 29:44Speaker 4: the right line here.
- 29:45Speaker 2: Well, it would be so NFC East for the Cowboys
- 29:49Speaker 2: to have this, you know, progress made at this point
- 29:53Speaker 2: in the season, and the Eagles really hit that point
- 29:55Speaker 2: of regression and the Cowboys win this division because of
- 29:58Speaker 2: how hard it is to continue to win in the
- 30:01Speaker 2: NFC East. So maybe that's the play, is whatever the
- 30:05Speaker 2: Cowboys are at.
- 30:05Speaker 4: To win the division.
- 30:08Speaker 2: Yeah, like, maybe that's the play here.
- 30:10Speaker 1: Truly, they do feel like the best team in the
- 30:13Speaker 1: division at the moment. If this were to tick down,
- 30:16Speaker 1: those save money continues to pour in on Dallas, we
- 30:18Speaker 1: get Lions minus two and a half with that, with
- 30:21Speaker 1: that three being as key as it is, would that
- 30:23Speaker 1: be enough to make you want to buy in on Detroit.
- 30:26Speaker 4: Possibly, it depends on the injury report.
- 30:29Speaker 1: It's most likely the fact that Frank Ragnow tried to
- 30:33Speaker 1: come out of retirement on this offensive line and they
- 30:35Speaker 1: were like, nah, you can't.
- 30:37Speaker 3: That's a problem.
- 30:38Speaker 2: That's so sad though, Like imagine.
- 30:41Speaker 1: He's like, I want to come and save you and
- 30:44Speaker 1: uh and then didn't pass the physical time.
- 30:46Speaker 4: I just told the Lions games right and that like
- 30:48Speaker 4: line's at three in a shootout game. I mean, you
- 30:52Speaker 4: know what this is going to come down to. In
- 30:55Speaker 4: the last two weeks, it hasn't worked out for degenerate Dan.
- 31:02Speaker 4: He's what they're like, Oh, I don't know. They went
- 31:06Speaker 4: four down against hard They went oh of five on
- 31:10Speaker 4: fourth downs against the Eagles, So yeah, you know that
- 31:18Speaker 4: degenerate Dan. Yeah, so they're all of seven on fourth
- 31:20Speaker 4: downs over their past three games. You know, Degenerate Dan
- 31:26Speaker 4: is gonna be going on fourth downs and in a
- 31:28Speaker 4: game the Lions are gonna be able to put up
- 31:30Speaker 4: points on the Cowboys off and that the Cow's gonna
- 31:32Speaker 4: be able to score. They can score on anybody. So
- 31:33Speaker 4: what's this How's this game probably gonna be decided a
- 31:36Speaker 4: couple of lines, fourth downs, A shut up. I'm trying
- 31:43Speaker 4: to plant my flag here.
- 31:44Speaker 7: Okay, you're really.
- 31:45Speaker 3: Planting your flag in that deck?
- 31:47Speaker 1: Time to plant are flag presented by DraftKings.
- 31:50Speaker 3: The crown is yours. I'll get us started.
- 31:52Speaker 1: I'm gonna go with the Baltimore Ravens minus five and
- 31:55Speaker 1: a half against the Pittsburgh Steelers. I think the lore
- 31:58Speaker 1: around this rivalry is helping to drive the price down.
- 32:01Speaker 1: The fact that the Ravens got dusted last week against
- 32:04Speaker 1: Cincinnati that helped keeps the helps to keep the price down.
- 32:08Speaker 1: But it's not like Pittsburgh's been all that good either.
- 32:10Speaker 1: They got blown out by Buffalo, They've lost three of
- 32:12Speaker 1: their last four, five of the last seven, and the
- 32:15Speaker 1: tides they may be shifting in this matchup as well.
- 32:18Speaker 1: Last two meetings between the Ravens and the Steelers have
- 32:20Speaker 1: not been close games. Ravens by fourteen, Ravens by seventeen.
- 32:25Speaker 1: I'll take the Ravens now before this ticks back up
- 32:28Speaker 1: to six. Still six at DraftKings five and a half
- 32:34Speaker 1: if you can get it.
- 32:34Speaker 3: But I like the Ravens in this matchup.
- 32:37Speaker 2: Does it not feel like one of these weird games
- 32:39Speaker 2: that the Steelers win though to you, like coming off
- 32:43Speaker 2: a loss the whole, like Mike Tomlin argument in Division,
- 32:47Speaker 2: I get, you know, you just gave like the stats
- 32:49Speaker 2: of the scores of the last couple matchups, but like
- 32:51Speaker 2: this just feels weirdly like a Steelers spot of a
- 32:53Speaker 2: game that they win when they shouldn't.
- 32:54Speaker 1: I kind of feel the same all about the Steelers
- 32:56Speaker 1: that Stucky does about the current iteration of the Lions.
- 33:00Speaker 1: I feel like all of these trends and the raw
- 33:02Speaker 1: raw Tomlin stuff, that all of that feels pass.
- 33:05Speaker 3: A at this point.
- 33:06Speaker 1: This doesn't feel like the same organization because they don't
- 33:08Speaker 1: bring us the same way defensively that used to be. Hey,
- 33:11Speaker 1: at any point, if they're at a low, they just
- 33:14Speaker 1: lean on defense and they're.
- 33:15Speaker 2: Running, running the ball. That was the identity.
- 33:17Speaker 3: Yeah, and they can't do that right now.
- 33:19Speaker 4: Yeah, it's my concern. I don't know if Evan has
- 33:21Speaker 4: this as primer, but I do think that when these
- 33:23Speaker 4: teams have been Tomlin and Harball have met over the
- 33:27Speaker 4: past seventeen years, I do think that under when either
- 33:30Speaker 4: as an underdog of three or more points, it's like
- 33:33Speaker 4: eighteen one in three against the spread, it's insane. I think,
- 33:36Speaker 4: like literally, I think it's like ninety percent, and the
- 33:39Speaker 4: amount of games that have been decided by three points
- 33:41Speaker 4: is insane. But you're right, the Steelers defense is not
- 33:44Speaker 4: the same. I mean, the Bills ran the same running
- 33:45Speaker 4: by twenty seven plays twenty seven times last week and
- 33:48Speaker 4: they Steelers couldn't stop it. They have injuries on defense,
- 33:52Speaker 4: Aaron Rodgers having to go out of the pistol with
- 33:54Speaker 4: his hurt hand. The offense is just dysfunctional. Aaron Rodgers
- 33:58Speaker 4: has been over the past four weeks, has been the
- 34:01Speaker 4: worst quarterback in the NFL. Statistically, if you look at
- 34:03Speaker 4: EPA plus completion percentage of expectation, he's worse than Shador
- 34:06Speaker 4: Gabriel dead last. The offense is not working right now,
- 34:10Speaker 4: but neither is the Ravens offense. Like Lamar doesn't have
- 34:13Speaker 4: the same burst. There's hope for the Ravens, like I
- 34:17Speaker 4: don't see hope for the Steelers. It's just how is
- 34:20Speaker 4: this going to get fixed? Then the receivers can't get separation.
- 34:23Speaker 4: Rogers is hurt now once You's like if Lamar, like
- 34:28Speaker 4: if that burst comes back now. The Steers have done
- 34:31Speaker 4: a really good job against Lamar, Jackson Astor. But they
- 34:33Speaker 4: usually have a really good game plan. But this is
- 34:35Speaker 4: a game where the Ravens can just line up and
- 34:37Speaker 4: run it. Are the Steelers, Like look in the steer,
- 34:40Speaker 4: that's all the Bills did. The Bills run the same
- 34:41Speaker 4: two plays the entire game instead of record stadium record.
- 34:44Speaker 4: But I do get the hebgb's when it comes to wanting,
- 34:49Speaker 4: because I want to lay it with the Ravens here too.
- 34:51Speaker 4: But I've just seen so many Ravens Steelers games at
- 34:57Speaker 4: all end up three, no matter what, like it's just
- 34:59Speaker 4: it'll be the team ten somehow. Overall, since twenty five,
- 35:04Speaker 4: the underdog in this series is twenty nine twelve and
- 35:06Speaker 4: three against the spread seventy one percent. When the line
- 35:09Speaker 4: is three or more points, the underdog is twenty three
- 35:12Speaker 4: five and three against spread, which is silly.
- 35:16Speaker 3: But it is very very much so might not apply.
- 35:20Speaker 4: It also might not apply to the Ravens. Like the
- 35:22Speaker 4: Ravens offense right now is also broken.
- 35:25Speaker 3: They they have not looked good.
- 35:27Speaker 1: I think the word hope that you laid out as
- 35:29Speaker 1: part of the reason why I am on Baltimore here,
- 35:32Speaker 1: I have faith that they can bounce back. I don't
- 35:35Speaker 1: feel the same way about Pittsburgh.
- 35:37Speaker 3: And two thousand.
- 35:38Speaker 1: Going back to two thousand and five, we're talking about
- 35:40Speaker 1: Ben Roethlisberger, one of the greatest quarterbacks I've ever seen
- 35:42Speaker 1: play the game, some elite defenses. I think that we're
- 35:46Speaker 1: getting caught up in the logos here. This line should
- 35:48Speaker 1: be closer to seven. In my opinion, Kendro, what about
- 35:50Speaker 1: you plant the flag.
- 35:52Speaker 2: I'm gonna plant my flag on the Bengals. When I
- 35:55Speaker 2: saw this number at plus six, I was absolutely shook,
- 35:58Speaker 2: didn't believe it, and I thought our website was off.
- 36:01Speaker 2: It is not. We've seen what Joe Burrow can do
- 36:04Speaker 2: when he's coming from behind. He plays with a vengeance.
- 36:06Speaker 2: I think that he probably should have been even more
- 36:08Speaker 2: considered for MVP last year, considering how much time he
- 36:11Speaker 2: you know, missed and came back and just played like
- 36:14Speaker 2: an insane person kind of doing the same thing right now.
- 36:17Speaker 2: The injury reports as well so far from me, have
- 36:20Speaker 2: been a little concerning for Buffalo. So I really like
- 36:23Speaker 2: this number. And the thing is the Bengals, they get
- 36:28Speaker 2: their schedule gets easier. They have the Bills this week,
- 36:29Speaker 2: and they have the Ravens this week, and then they
- 36:31Speaker 2: finish out with the Dolphins, Cardinals, and Browns. I think
- 36:34Speaker 2: that if they can find a way to get stay
- 36:36Speaker 2: healthy through these you know, gauntlet of these couple games,
- 36:38Speaker 2: especially the next Ravens game, they might be on a
- 36:42Speaker 2: little bit of a tear. So I'm gonna go with
- 36:44Speaker 2: the Bengals.
- 36:45Speaker 1: To Higgins coming back as well as an underdog Joe
- 36:48Speaker 1: Burrow twenty and eleven against the spread. If it's a
- 36:51Speaker 1: dog of three or more, he is eighteen and three.
- 36:54Speaker 1: Ats gonna be cold at kickoff, So I think a
- 36:58Speaker 1: lot of people are gonna look to back a home
- 37:00Speaker 1: team Buffalo squad. It looks really strong right now, wintery,
- 37:06Speaker 1: cold weather. But I think Burrow plays well. We've seen
- 37:13Speaker 1: him go into Buffalo in the playoffs and get a
- 37:15Speaker 1: win against this Bills team, So I like that. I
- 37:18Speaker 1: was looking the way of the Bengals myself. Stucky you
- 37:21Speaker 1: read on that and you're playing the flag.
- 37:23Speaker 4: I watching some injuries there. I mean, I don't think
- 37:25Speaker 4: the Bills will be able to The Bengals defense is
- 37:27Speaker 4: really bad too. I don't think that they'll be able
- 37:29Speaker 4: to run the seam two plays like they did last week.
- 37:31Speaker 4: But who knows. The Bengals offense is obviously much more
- 37:35Speaker 4: efficient explosive. The Bengals run game also, and some of
- 37:38Speaker 4: their run concepts can give Buffalo issues. This is a
- 37:43Speaker 4: huge game for Cincy. If the Bengals can win this game,
- 37:47Speaker 4: I mean, they're live for the division because they get
- 37:51Speaker 4: to host the Ravens. The Ravens and Steelers play each
- 37:53Speaker 4: other twice, so if they split right, and then you
- 37:56Speaker 4: look at the rest of the Bengals schedule, as Kendra mentioned,
- 37:59Speaker 4: it's they host the Ravens and it's Dolphins, Cardinals, Browns.
- 38:03Speaker 4: But if they lose this game, probably done because because
- 38:08Speaker 4: again the Ravens and Steers play each other. So this
- 38:14Speaker 4: is an enormous game for the Bengals.
- 38:16Speaker 2: There's a lot of big games this week, to be honest.
- 38:19Speaker 4: Yeah, a lot, a lot of a lot of big games.
- 38:21Speaker 4: Like I mentioned, the Charger Eagles game is huge. Like Eagles,
- 38:24Speaker 4: they want that one seed. They're gonna have to win
- 38:26Speaker 4: this if not, like in Dallas, wins is the division
- 38:29Speaker 4: in question. The Chargers have a brutal schedule after this.
- 38:34Speaker 2: Game.
- 38:35Speaker 4: That game I think is elimination.
- 38:37Speaker 2: That's an elimination game. I agree with you absolutely.
- 38:39Speaker 3: We mentioned the Jags Colts.
- 38:41Speaker 4: Is the Jags the first place.
- 38:42Speaker 2: It's a massive weekend.
- 38:44Speaker 4: Dude, Monday night they on the Monday Night graphic, they
- 38:46Speaker 4: put race for the one seed. They put in the act.
- 38:49Speaker 4: They put Broncos, Patriots, and Colts. I was like, this
- 38:54Speaker 4: week too, Like Bags are in first place with an
- 38:56Speaker 4: easier schedule. They put the Colts up there.
- 39:00Speaker 2: Nobody's talking about the Jags. I'll bitch about that for eternity.
- 39:03Speaker 2: Everyone's like Denver, Houston, Indianapolis, all this stuff. I'm like,
- 39:08Speaker 2: the Jags lead the division. You guys won't even give
- 39:10Speaker 2: them their flowers. Like, don't get me wrong, I don't
- 39:12Speaker 2: believe in this team going anywhere either.
- 39:14Speaker 4: You're not talking about the Jags either.
- 39:16Speaker 2: Hell Ma, no, that team is like this is your yeah,
- 39:22Speaker 2: let me let me fall on this sword, however I choose. Okay,
- 39:25Speaker 2: I've been going through the scrap for far too long.
- 39:28Speaker 4: Jags super Bowl. Uh, that's I'm playing.
- 39:32Speaker 2: Jackson super Bowl this year. I will get the Lombardi
- 39:34Speaker 2: Trophy tattooed on my left ass cheek.
- 39:37Speaker 4: All right, that's.
- 39:40Speaker 1: Your first uh Jags future as he said, we're right
- 39:44Speaker 1: that one in.
- 39:44Speaker 4: That's that's what I'm.
- 39:45Speaker 2: Playing I'm dead ass. I will get the Lombardi Trophy
- 39:48Speaker 2: on my left ass cheek. I have a huge like yeah, yeah.
- 39:53Speaker 4: Uh now, plany my flag. I'll plan my flag on.
- 39:59Speaker 4: I'm gonna with the Falcons plus seven and a half
- 40:04Speaker 4: against the Falcons, excuse me, against the Seahawks at home.
- 40:09Speaker 4: I think number one, this is a it's a cell
- 40:15Speaker 4: hive of the Seahawks. I think, I mean, they're nine
- 40:16Speaker 4: to three against the spread. We're at the peak of
- 40:19Speaker 4: the market on them. Look and look you look back
- 40:22Speaker 4: last week that that game was three to nothing at
- 40:24Speaker 4: the end of the first half and Brosmuth would played
- 40:27Speaker 4: one of the worst quarterback games of all time. Was
- 40:31Speaker 4: shut down, shut to completely shut down. They were using
- 40:36Speaker 4: like they and the the Vikings and the Falcons, very
- 40:41Speaker 4: zone heavy teams that can get pressure that blitz. Seahawks
- 40:44Speaker 4: have some offensive line injuries. Darnold very quietly has been
- 40:47Speaker 4: very poor over the past month.
- 40:49Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that they make I mean quietly didn't
- 40:52Speaker 2: throw like five interceptions.
- 40:55Speaker 4: The Rams, but he hasn't been great in other games
- 40:57Speaker 4: where they just and look the last two weeks they
- 40:59Speaker 4: played cam and the Titans and then the Brosmer and
- 41:02Speaker 4: the Vikings and the Falcons. Look, the Falcons aren't aren't great,
- 41:09Speaker 4: but this is a team that last week they dominated
- 41:13Speaker 4: the Jets like they should have won that game, like
- 41:15Speaker 4: statistically they got beat on special teams, like they had
- 41:18Speaker 4: a mouth to punt at the five like statistically they
- 41:21Speaker 4: were way better. The Falcons are one in four over
- 41:26Speaker 4: their past five games with one second to go in regulation.
- 41:30Speaker 4: They trailed once and it was by one point at
- 41:34Speaker 4: the Patriots. That's it. They lost in overtime to the Colts.
- 41:38Speaker 4: Easily could have won that game on the neutral field,
- 41:40Speaker 4: Blew a big lead against the Panthers, lost in overtime,
- 41:43Speaker 4: lost a game that they should have won at New York,
- 41:45Speaker 4: lost on a fifty two yard field walk off field goal,
- 41:49Speaker 4: and then beat the Saints. I mean they were one
- 41:51Speaker 4: in four of the past five games there with a
- 41:54Speaker 4: positive scoring differential. They've only trailed once by one point
- 41:58Speaker 4: at New England with one second to go in regulation,
- 42:00Speaker 4: and there's a good there's a decent chance Drake London
- 42:03Speaker 4: comes back. Kirk Cousins has looked better in the past
- 42:05Speaker 4: two weeks. The Falcons numbers aren't great versus heavy personnel,
- 42:09Speaker 4: which they'll see a lot of against Seattle, but if
- 42:11Speaker 4: you filter out with him without Devon Diablo, it's like
- 42:14Speaker 4: a three yard difference. He makes a huge difference against
- 42:17Speaker 4: the run. Seahawks aren't a great rushing team efficiency wise.
- 42:20Speaker 4: That's how you really want to attack the Falcons. And
- 42:24Speaker 4: here's who I think they really miss is my guy
- 42:27Speaker 4: Tory Orton, because a lot of times they just have
- 42:30Speaker 4: two receivers out there and they're not. Shh Heed's only
- 42:33Speaker 4: playing like thirty forty fifty percent. He's done nothing. What
- 42:37Speaker 4: is she? Het has like seven catches in four games.
- 42:40Speaker 4: He's supposed to be like this piece. And now it's
- 42:42Speaker 4: like Cooper Cup, the corpse of Cooper Cup. And then
- 42:45Speaker 4: JSN and now I think teams saw what the Vikings
- 42:48Speaker 4: did last week, a lot of help over the top,
- 42:51Speaker 4: more cloud coverages to kind of take away JSN, and
- 42:55Speaker 4: the Falcons do it generally do a good job of
- 42:56Speaker 4: taking away explosive pass plays. I just think this line
- 42:59Speaker 4: is too high. I think the Falcons will be in
- 43:02Speaker 4: this game at home, So give me over a touchdown
- 43:04Speaker 4: with Atlanta.
- 43:06Speaker 1: A gross Falcons dog bet after losing to the Jets.
- 43:10Speaker 3: This is versical.
- 43:10Speaker 4: Do you want to bet the Jags. I mean, the
- 43:12Speaker 4: Falcons is dogs. You don't never want to bet them
- 43:14Speaker 4: as favorites, Like this is going on for years and
- 43:17Speaker 4: for what it's worth the just like I love fading
- 43:23Speaker 4: teams off of like shutout wins. This isn't gospel, but
- 43:28Speaker 4: road teams off of a home shutout, right, So like this, Oh,
- 43:30Speaker 4: look look at this team. They just want twenty six
- 43:32Speaker 4: to nothing. Road teams off a home shutout over the
- 43:34Speaker 4: past twenty five years, seventeen thirty five and one against
- 43:38Speaker 4: the spread thirty two point seven percent. So yeah, and
- 43:42Speaker 4: the Falcons lost the game they should have won. Last week.
- 43:46Speaker 4: Seahawks benefited from facing Frosmer Darnold kind of trending down
- 43:50Speaker 4: a bit that the defenses have tape on this offense
- 43:53Speaker 4: or they're adjusting a bit better. So yeah, I'll take
- 43:58Speaker 4: I'll take the seven. I think it's nice too high.
- 44:00Speaker 1: Our play at the Flag Games presented by DraftKings. The
- 44:03Speaker 1: Crown is yours. Kendra is on the Bengals plus six,
- 44:07Speaker 1: Stucky on the Falcons plus seven and a half, and
- 44:10Speaker 1: I will lay it with the Baltimore Ravens minus five.
- 44:13Speaker 3: And a half.
- 44:14Speaker 1: Evan Abrams bring us home the Primer is poppin this
- 44:18Speaker 1: week over at actionnetwork dot com. Evan, what are the
- 44:21Speaker 1: trends that we need to be aware of before we
- 44:23Speaker 1: go firing away on the apps.
- 44:25Speaker 6: Yeah, so Tuesday morning we're recording here.
- 44:27Speaker 7: Primer is now live on the site, so check it
- 44:29Speaker 7: out with all the great games this weekend. I think
- 44:32Speaker 7: the biggest really topic of conversation across the league, and
- 44:35Speaker 7: you hear it across almost every show, is just a
- 44:37Speaker 7: parody in the league. So I took a look at it,
- 44:40Speaker 7: and during Week fourteen, we currently have seventeen teams listed
- 44:44Speaker 7: below fifty to one odds to win the Super Bowl.
- 44:46Speaker 7: That would be the most for any season dating back
- 44:49Speaker 7: to at least twenty ten. The previous high was fifteen
- 44:52Speaker 7: teams in twenty seventeen, So seventeen teams currently under fifty
- 44:56Speaker 7: to one seems like a lot. It is also twelve
- 44:59Speaker 7: teams these four games above five hundred right now tied
- 45:02Speaker 7: for the most in NFL history. So right now, absolutely
- 45:06Speaker 7: anybody can win the Super Bowl.
- 45:07Speaker 6: You've heard it.
- 45:07Speaker 7: Everywhere, and the odds kind of tell you that. I
- 45:10Speaker 7: feel like the other story. You look at the board
- 45:12Speaker 7: and you say Tennessee, Cleveland, thirty three and a half
- 45:15Speaker 7: seems like a fun topic to talk about, but listen,
- 45:18Speaker 7: since it started twenty ten, be the third lowest total
- 45:21Speaker 7: in an outdoor game in freezing temperatures, so we do
- 45:24Speaker 7: not see this a lot. Thirty two and a half
- 45:27Speaker 7: Saints Brown's in twenty twenty two, and of course the
- 45:30Speaker 7: infamous lowest total NFL history twenty eight and a half
- 45:34Speaker 7: Jets Patriots in twenty twenty three.
- 45:35Speaker 6: So two rookies and a low total can't wait.
- 45:39Speaker 1: And two rookies where there was a lot of debate
- 45:42Speaker 1: about these two leading up to draft season. Of course,
- 45:45Speaker 1: cam Ward really started to separate himself as we got
- 45:48Speaker 1: closer to April one, up being the number one overall
- 45:50Speaker 1: pick and Shador Sanders a shock to us. All drops
- 45:54Speaker 1: to the fifth round. But that game gonna be nice
- 45:57Speaker 1: and disgusting. And it looks like the Browns are taking
- 45:59Speaker 1: money too. They were minus three and a half when
- 46:01Speaker 1: we started recording. They're minus four and a half now
- 46:03Speaker 1: against the Tennessee Titans. Could you imagine sitting there on
- 46:06Speaker 1: Sunday laying it with the Cleveland Browns and it might
- 46:09Speaker 1: not be a bad idea.
- 46:11Speaker 3: I don't think of it.
- 46:12Speaker 4: When's the last time I had a total under thirty three?
- 46:15Speaker 7: Last year under thirty three would be that thirty two
- 46:18Speaker 7: and a half game, I believe Cleveland and Miami or
- 46:22Speaker 7: No Saints Brown's twenty twenty two.
- 46:26Speaker 4: Man, what are the what's the updated win forecasts for that?
- 46:29Speaker 6: It's honestly not that bad. I only see like ten
- 46:31Speaker 6: eleven miles an hour. It's just supposed to be.
- 46:33Speaker 4: So this might have been like this total could if
- 46:35Speaker 4: there was like thirty mine hour wins, this total could
- 46:37Speaker 4: have been like twenty nine and a half.
- 46:40Speaker 7: I mean, it's not often stuck. You see the look
- 46:42Speaker 7: ahead at thirty five and a half, like usually weather,
- 46:44Speaker 7: to get a weather, we'll drive it down. It started
- 46:47Speaker 7: super low, so I think it really depends how the
- 46:50Speaker 7: week goes.
- 46:50Speaker 4: There was some There was some games in like the
- 46:54Speaker 4: mid two thousands. I don't know if you had this
- 46:56Speaker 4: up if you want to, like pull up on action labs.
- 46:59Speaker 4: The like the lowest totals we've ever had, But they're
- 47:04Speaker 4: like the Bears, like the mid two thousand Bears teams
- 47:08Speaker 4: that were like dominant defensively with horrendous quarterback play, and
- 47:13Speaker 4: then when they would have a really windy game there.
- 47:17Speaker 4: I think there might have been a total that was
- 47:19Speaker 4: like twenty nine and a half.
- 47:20Speaker 7: I mean, yeah, there's been. I mean twenty eight and
- 47:22Speaker 7: a half is the record. We saw that with the
- 47:25Speaker 7: snow Crazy game with New England and the Jets. There's
- 47:28Speaker 7: a ton of two thousand and five, two thousand and four.
- 47:31Speaker 4: Bears, like three eights maybe.
- 47:34Speaker 6: Yeah, thirty thirty one and a half, thirty and a half.
- 47:37Speaker 6: It's usually Bears at home and Browns at home is
- 47:40Speaker 6: where you get the lowest totals in NFL history.
- 47:43Speaker 4: Yeah, with the wind. But yeah, those Bears teams. I
- 47:45Speaker 4: think I remember a twenty nine and a half one.
- 47:48Speaker 4: There was that Bears forty nine ers. I don't know
- 47:51Speaker 4: what the total was, but the Chris Berman on the
- 47:55Speaker 4: the on when he wo and the Bogos, they try
- 48:00Speaker 4: to kick a field goal and it goes and it
- 48:02Speaker 4: literally goes thirty yards right in the wind.
- 48:05Speaker 6: Yeah, I believe it's Bears Niners.
- 48:07Speaker 7: Two thousand and five total was thirty seventeen to nine
- 48:10Speaker 7: final and there.
- 48:12Speaker 4: Was Nathan Vasher had one hundred and eight yard kick
- 48:18Speaker 4: missed field goal return at the end of the half.
- 48:22Speaker 4: And it's still went under here ready.
- 48:23Speaker 7: Watch this field goal attempt by Robbie's solid fool to
- 48:26Speaker 7: the Bears.
- 48:28Speaker 2: You think it's windy, understatement of the year and the
- 48:31Speaker 2: kick us up, it's on the.
- 48:32Speaker 3: Way and it's no good man, Harry Goes. They had
- 48:40Speaker 3: no shit.
- 48:41Speaker 4: It went out of the end zone.
- 48:43Speaker 3: There will never be another.
- 48:45Speaker 4: Yeah, NFL Prime Time back in the days best. It's
- 48:49Speaker 4: so long. But I used to watch that every night,
- 48:51Speaker 4: every night after the NFL games. But yeah, so that
- 48:53Speaker 4: was thirty, said Evan.
- 48:55Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean I Evan will let you go back
- 48:57Speaker 3: to your layer. Thank you so much.
- 48:59Speaker 1: Go and check it out actionnetwork dot Com or on
- 49:01Speaker 1: the Action Network app. That's gonna do it for today's
- 49:04Speaker 1: episode special thanks to our producers David Paine and Gifford Gould.
- 49:07Speaker 3: The Favorites will return on Thursday.
- 49:10Speaker 1: Right here on the Action Network YouTube page, we talk
- 49:12Speaker 1: Week fourteen best Bets, Lay it all on the line,
- 49:16Speaker 1: two Kings and a Queen Parlay.
- 49:17Speaker 3: We'll see you next time right here on.
- 49:19Speaker 1: The Favorites presented by DraftKings, We're out.
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