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Wartime Politics and Reflection · Israel Policy Pod

• 0:03
  Shanie Reichman: Shalom and welcome to Israel Policy Pod.
• 0:05
  Shanie Reichman: I'm your host, Shanie Reichman, the Director of Strategic Initiatives and IPF at Israel Policy Forum, and I'm joined here by Neri Zilber, a journalist based in Tel Aviv and a policy advisor with Israel Policy Forum.
• 0:16
  Neri Zilber: Hi, Neri Hi Shanie, it's good to be back with you Now in video for those who may see this on video, but audio for all our regular listeners.
• 0:26
  Shanie Reichman: We are recording Tuesday afternoon, Israel time, as Yom HaZikaron, Israel's Memorial Day begins very shortly I think in just an hour or two and, of course, Israel's Independence Day, Yom HaAtzmaut, which immediately follows that.
• 0:38
  Shanie Reichman: We're going to discuss the mood in Israel right now, Shin Bet Chief Ronan Barr announcing that he will step down from his position and swirling reports around a hostage ceasefire deal.
• 0:48
  Shanie Reichman: So we'll start with Ronan Bar.
• 0:51
  Shanie Reichman: We've spent a lot of time speculating about a potential for a constitutional crisis after Netanyahu announced that he was firing Shin Bet Chief Ronan Bar, and the Supreme Court of Israel then moved to block that attempt.
• 1:04
  Shanie Reichman: Now there are two sides to this firing.
• 1:11
  Shanie Reichman: On the one hand, many in Israel agree that everyone who was responsible during the October 7th massacre, at sort of across the political and security establishments, should at some point step down, given their sort of culpability.
• 1:21
  Shanie Reichman: On the other hand, netanyahu himself has no plans to do so, of course.
• 1:24
  Shanie Reichman: And then there's the added context.
• 1:29
  Shanie Reichman: Of course not.
• 1:30
  Shanie Reichman: Who would do that?
• 1:30
  Shanie Reichman: Who would even consider such a thing?
• 1:31
  Shanie Reichman: There's the added context of Barr probably being fired more for other reasons that perhaps you will share with us.
• 1:36
  Shanie Reichman: All of that said, we've avoided what would have been a very confusing and detrimental constitutional crisis, which is a power struggle between the political echelon and the judiciary.
• 1:45
  Shanie Reichman: So why did Ronan Bar ultimately step down, and is that going to lead to others to follow suit?
• 1:50
  Shanie Reichman: And, of course, let us know the real reason why he was fired.
• 1:53
  Neri Zilber: Okay, so a lot to unpack, but yes, this saga surrounding Shin Bet Chief Ronan Bar and the Shin Bet obviously is the vaunted domestic intelligence agency here in Israel with vast powers usually operates in the shadows, but not in recent weeks and recent months, due to precisely the reason you laid out Shani Ronen Bar late last month, was fired by Netanyahu and his government, and that started a whole hubbub maelstrom call it what you will surrounding the legality of whether Netanyahu himself and his government could actually fire Ronan Barr, the reasons behind the firing and also the timing of the firing.
• 2:34
  Neri Zilber: Now to start with the end, and then we'll work backwards.
• 2:37
  Neri Zilber: Literally 24 hours ago, we were looking down the barrel at a constitutional crisis here in Israel, precisely due to the fact that the Supreme Court took up the question of whether this was legal or not, and they issued a temporary injunction a few weeks ago, in early April, saying until we clarify this, until we resolve this, you cannot actually remove Barr from his position.
• 2:59
  Neri Zilber: You can't appoint someone new.
• 3:01
  Neri Zilber: Netanyahu and his government did not like that and did not like that one bit.
• 3:05
  Neri Zilber: They tried to appoint someone and then quickly reversed themselves for other reasons, but we were looking at a constitutional crisis if Netanyahu had pressed the matter.
• 3:14
  Neri Zilber: So last night, monday night, ronan Barr gave a speech and really I think this may have been one of his sole public appearances.
• 3:24
  Neri Zilber: I mean, really people didn't know until really last night what his voice sounded like.
• 3:29
  Neri Zilber: You know he had done, I think, press conferences maybe once or twice before, but really this was very rare, especially.
• 3:35
  Shanie Reichman: I will admit I saw a picture of him was like I don't even recognize that guy.
• 3:41
  Neri Zilber: A picture.
• 3:41
  Neri Zilber: Yeah, you know.
• 3:46
  Neri Zilber: Again, he became a lot more familiar to people here and around the world due to this crisis surrounding his firing or not.
• 3:50
  Neri Zilber: So he gave a speech yesterday at the memorial ceremony for the fallen Shin Bet operatives ahead of the general memorial day, and that's where he announced that, yes, on June 15th he would be stepping down.
• 4:01
  Neri Zilber: And he made clear look, after October 7th I ie, ronan Barr and pretty much every other security chief here responsible for October 7th and the major, major failure we don't need to belabor the point said yes, they would all be going home early.
• 4:16
  Neri Zilber: It was just a question of when, and obviously after October 7th the whole war broke out.
• 4:21
  Neri Zilber: So the timing wasn't just semantics.
• 4:23
  Neri Zilber: You can't replace those people in the middle of a multi-front war.
• 4:27
  Neri Zilber: So that was good news in the sense that, yes, we avoided the constitutional crisis and we'll get to the bad news in a second.
• 4:34
  Neri Zilber: It was definitely good news for the Netanyahu government because there's a date certain that Barr is leaving and literally I think two hours ago, the government issued a decision to cancel its original decision to fire Ronan Barr.
• 4:47
  Neri Zilber: So they essentially accepted the fact that Ronan Barr would stay in place for another two months.
• 4:52
  Neri Zilber: So that's the latest, so effectively.
• 4:56
  Neri Zilber: It remains to be seen the one outstanding issue.
• 4:57
  Neri Zilber: Well, there's two outstanding issues, first one being whether the Supreme Court will actually issue a decision on this case, now that it's essentially become moot in terms of the legality of firing Barr, or not, because Barr said he himself is going home.
• 5:11
  Neri Zilber: The second big issue is who Netanyahu appoints to this very, very important position.
• 5:16
  Neri Zilber: Let's table that not minor point for a second.
• 5:19
  Neri Zilber: So, moving backwards, netanyahu fired Ronan Barr Bar prematurely, some would say.
• 5:25
  Neri Zilber: Others here would say that Rouran Bar should have gone home quite early.
• 5:29
  Neri Zilber: And it's interesting you said who else may be leaving.
• 5:32
  Neri Zilber: There's no one else to leave.
• 5:33
  Neri Zilber: Cheney, the former defense minister, joao Galant, was fired by Netanyahu last November.
• 5:40
  Neri Zilber: Heltzia Levy, the former IDF chief of staff, was essentially pushed out in early March, replaced by Yair Zamil.
• 5:47
  Neri Zilber: A slew of other senior generals have either left already or very much resigned and are on their way out.
• 5:55
  Neri Zilber: So the only one in a position of power on October 7th and responsible for the abject failure on that morning still standing is the prime minister and, as we all know, he has not only not taken responsibility, he hasn't even uttered the word responsibility once he's consistently blocked the formation of National Commission of Inquiry to actually get to the bottom of what happened and who's really responsible in the lead up to October 7th.
• 6:23
  Neri Zilber: And he and his shall we say allies, mouthpieces both inside government and outside government, especially on social media, have been running this campaign for months now, trying to pin sole blame for October 7th on the security chiefs.
• 6:40
  Neri Zilber: It was essentially just a military issue, an operational issue, and not a bigger strategic issue.
• 6:45
  Neri Zilber: Netanyahu was responsible for ie Israel's policy vis-a-vis Hamas and Hamas and Gaza for well 16 years since Netanyahu came back as prime minister.
• 6:57
  Neri Zilber: So that's kind of by way of context.
• 6:59
  Neri Zilber: They fired Barr in late March.
• 7:03
  Neri Zilber: Why?
• 7:03
  Neri Zilber: There are various reasons.
• 7:06
  Neri Zilber: The kind of precipitating cause, I'd argue, is this ongoing investigation that the Shin Bet is very much a part of having to do with several close aides to Netanyahu and their alleged let's say alleged work, paid work on behalf of Qatar, as they were working in the prime minister's office.
• 7:27
  Neri Zilber: And again, we don't need to get into the weeds of that issue.
• 7:30
  Neri Zilber: I think a few weeks ago I dealt with it with Tal Shalev.
• 7:33
  Neri Zilber: We did our best to explain it to our listeners, but really the thinking is you fire the Shin Bet chief, you put in, shall we say, a loyalist, a puppet, a patsy in that very important position and maybe you can quash the investigation or at least slow it down.
• 7:50
  Neri Zilber: So again, nenya Hu, even dating back to last year, there was certain bad blood with Renan Bar, but really it kind of came to the fore really over the past two months Now.
• 8:04
  Neri Zilber: Some of our listeners may be aware that this all became very public once the Supreme Court got involved, because there were appeals to the Supreme Court saying you know, netanyahu can't legally fire Ronan Barr.
• 8:15
  Neri Zilber: It's a conflict of interest because he's investigating several of his aides.
• 8:19
  Neri Zilber: Maybe Netanyahu knew, didn't know that remains to be seen and also the process wasn't done correctly in terms of just due process, and so it was being appealed to the Supreme Court and in the context of this appeal, ronan Barr last week issued a sworn affidavit to the court that was made public, about two dozen pages.
• 8:41
  Neri Zilber: I read it, I reported on it, then Yahoo on Sunday, this past Sunday, issued his own rival affidavit, again signed by the prime minister?
• 8:49
  Shanie Reichman: Is that common?
• 8:50
  Shanie Reichman: It's not common.
• 8:52
  Shanie Reichman: Is that standard procedure?
• 8:54
  Neri Zilber: I mean, it's a Supreme Court hearing, so these things are done, but not by the prime minister of the country and not by the top intelligence security chief, right?
• 9:04
  Neri Zilber: Yeah, that are essentially at loggerheads and it's all coming out into the fore, and I'll give you the cliff notes version of what Barr laid out.
• 9:14
  Neri Zilber: And it's actually no laughing matter.
• 9:16
  Neri Zilber: Ronan Barr essentially said number one Netanyahu demanded personal loyalty to him in the event of a constitutional crisis back in 2023, vis-a-vis the Supreme Court and the other judicial bodies.
• 9:30
  Neri Zilber: So Netanyahu, according to Barr, demanded personal fealty.
• 9:34
  Neri Zilber: Number one.
• 9:34
  Neri Zilber: Number two Arun Bar claimed that Netanyahu tried to get him to delay or halt his ongoing corruption trial on security grounds late last year, ahead of Netanyahu taking the stand, and Barr didn't play ball in that case either.
• 9:49
  Neri Zilber: And then, number three, he was asked, according to Barr, to spy on, monitor prominent anti-government activists and protesters that were part of the anti-judicial overhaul movement back in 2023.
• 10:03
  Neri Zilber: And also, here again, barr refused, and so that was Barr's case against Netanyahu for why he was being pushed out again, combined with the ongoing investigation.
• 10:15
  Shanie Reichman: Yeah.
• 10:15
  Shanie Reichman: Does any of this come as a surprise?
• 10:16
  Shanie Reichman: Was any of this kept out of the media and is now being reported on?
• 10:20
  Shanie Reichman: That's fully new information.
• 10:22
  Shanie Reichman: Or is it just being verified like it was speculative before now?
• 10:25
  Shanie Reichman: It's been verified by him.
• 10:27
  Neri Zilber: So the issue about Netanyahu's corruption trial had been reported.
• 10:30
  Neri Zilber: We had a sense of that late last year.
• 10:32
  Neri Zilber: I think I even wrote about it at the time.
• 10:34
  Neri Zilber: The issue of monitoring anti-government protesters no, we didn't know.
• 10:39
  Neri Zilber: That's not a minor thing here in this democracy in the Middle East.
• 10:44
  Neri Zilber: And the issue of demanding personal loyalty in the event of a constitutional crisis between the branches of government from your domestic spy chief that we definitely didn't know, and that was really the top line of the affidavit, along with the other bombshells that came out of it.
• 11:02
  Neri Zilber: So that was kind of, in and of itself, quite striking last week, and then on Sunday, netanyahu basically said you know, ronan Barr is a liar.
• 11:10
  Neri Zilber: Here's why this never happened, although interestingly, he didn't directly say that he never asked Ronan Barr for personal loyalty in the event of constitutional crisis.
• 11:21
  Neri Zilber: He just said Ronan Barr didn't provide any evidence in his affidavit to that effect, which, again, in legal terms, is not the same thing as saying it never happened.
• 11:30
  Neri Zilber: It's not a straight denial.
• 11:31
  Neri Zilber: And so that's where we were basically until yesterday, until last night.
• 11:36
  Neri Zilber: So Israeli democracy lives to fight.
• 11:40
  Neri Zilber: Another day.
• 11:41
  Neri Zilber: Ronan Bar is going home.
• 11:44
  Neri Zilber: And I will say just final point, and I was asked this afternoon by people, this kind of soap opera, the circus, the saga of government firing Ronan Barr and then him not willing to leave, and then going to the Supreme Court, and then the affidavits, and on and on and on, and then finally the government canceling a decision to fire Ronan Barr and essentially letting him stay until June.
• 12:06
  Neri Zilber: What was this all for?
• 12:08
  Neri Zilber: If you're Ronan Barr and say the people on Ronan Barr's side, I'll say two things.
• 12:14
  Neri Zilber: Number one I think Ronan Barr wanted to make sure that the Qatargate investigation, ie the investigation into Netanyahu's aides, wasn't derailed, wasn't squashed, and so he wanted more time.
• 12:26
  Neri Zilber: That's number one.
• 12:27
  Neri Zilber: Number two, and probably more importantly, ronan Barr wanted to make all this public.
• 12:34
  Neri Zilber: Ronan Barr knew that he couldn't wait out Netanyahu in this government.
• 12:38
  Neri Zilber: He couldn't just stay in post, no matter what the Supreme Court may or may not have decided.
• 12:42
  Neri Zilber: There's going to be an election here, hopefully next year.
• 12:46
  Neri Zilber: That's a long time from now, probably at least a year from now.
• 12:48
  Neri Zilber: And so Renan Bar knew he couldn't just cling on and keep this going, and so he wanted to make all this public, as a alarm to the general public, that hey, this is what Netanyahu was asking of me as the head of Shin Bet, and so whoever comes next needs to be aware of that and the public definitely needs to be aware of that.
• 13:09
  Neri Zilber: What Netanyahu may or may not ask the Shin Bet to do on his behalf, I think from his point of view, ideally codify that in a Supreme Court decision saying that the politicians, the prime minister, need to stay out of the Shin Bet's methods and operations.
• 13:25
  Neri Zilber: You know, within limits, obviously they do work for the prime minister, but it needs to be professional, it needs to be according to the rule of law.
• 13:31
  Neri Zilber: It can't just be at the whim of the prime minister and the government.
• 13:36
  Shanie Reichman: So we don't know who's going to replace Ronan Bar just yet, but what are the options?
• 13:40
  Shanie Reichman: Are there names being thrown around?
• 13:42
  Shanie Reichman: What sort of figures are being mentioned here?
• 13:46
  Neri Zilber: So the figures aren't quite public yet.
• 13:49
  Neri Zilber: Some of them come from inside the Shin Bet and so it's just an initial.
• 13:53
  Neri Zilber: They're not public.
• 13:54
  Neri Zilber: We have to remember too a number of weeks ago there was this farce when Netanyahu, despite the Supreme Court ruling, appointed a new Shin Bet chief, a former head of the Israeli Navy, unrelated to the Shin Bet or anything really, and he was actually viewed by even opposition leaders and people in the space here as actually a reasonable pick by Netanyahu.
• 14:20
  Neri Zilber: That lasted for, I think, less than 24 hours, this appointment, this nomination, until Netanyahu, I guess, got wind of the fact that this former head of the Navy protested on the streets against the judicial overhaul, and so as quickly as this guy was nominated out of thin air, he was removed from the nomination just as quickly.
• 14:45
  Neri Zilber: So the thinking here is that, okay, maybe Netanyahu won't go full unreasonable and full, shall we say, orban Hungarian leader and appoint a puppet or some lackey to this very important position.
• 15:01
  Neri Zilber: That's just a hope at the moment, because, no matter what the Supreme Court may or may not decide, I think that has more to do with removing a Shin Bet chief from his position and kind of involvement in the Shin Bet's operations, less the appointment.
• 15:17
  Neri Zilber: So there are some names that had floated beforehand, of people deemed close to Netanyahu, who have the security credentials, have the background and he may appoint them, with the hope, I think, on his end that they will do what he wants to do.
• 15:31
  Neri Zilber: Again remains to be seen.
• 15:32
  Neri Zilber: But there's a cautionary tale here, and that's what was done to the Israel police.
• 15:37
  Neri Zilber: Starting last summer, they appointed a new police commissioner, netanyahu, and National Security Minister, itamar Ben-Gvir, and this police commissioner, let's say, has not been the best in terms of standing up to political meddling in the work of the police, and so the police itself, according to many people here, has become more politicized than it was beforehand, and that's a threat to Israeli democracy.
• 16:04
  Neri Zilber: The shin bet is like the police here on steroids, to use a very worn out cliche.
• 16:09
  Neri Zilber: The Shin Bet has vast, vast powers to do many, many things domestically here, and not just to counter terrorism as its main mission.
• 16:19
  Shanie Reichman: So the fear is that Like spying on your political opponents.
• 16:22
  Neri Zilber: Yeah, like spying on your political appointments, like siding with the government in any constitutional crisis and not the courts, ie the rule of law, things like that which, again, barr very much raised the alarm about.
• 16:34
  Neri Zilber: And so we have to see who Netanyahu appoints as the next Shin Bet chief.
• 16:38
  Neri Zilber: That's going to be the next shoe to drop in terms of this kind of ongoing saga, one of many domestically, but it was the biggest one, I dare say, in recent weeks.
• 16:47
  Shanie Reichman: Moving beyond the internal Israeli affairs.
• 16:50
  Shanie Reichman: We try to stay really hopeful here about prospects for a ceasefire hostage deal, and this is serious business.
• 16:56
  Shanie Reichman: But, as Neri knows, I love when reality reflects the hallways of a high school, which it sort of did this week, because there were Israeli reports arising that Qatar is intentionally sabotaging the prospects and the negotiations by convincing Hamas to take a harsher stance.
• 17:15
  Shanie Reichman: But then you had reports from Arab leaders perhaps Egypt, I'm not sure if we know exactly who it is you can tell us, Neri, saying that Israel is intentionally creating those reports because they're the ones who want to sabotage the deal.
• 17:27
  Shanie Reichman: So what's really happening here and how do we get everyone on the same page?
• 17:33
  Neri Zilber: So my rule of thumb and I tell this to both friends and acquaintances who ask me, as well as my editors don't believe any of these reports until we report it.
• 17:42
  Neri Zilber: Not just us, but don't believe any of these.
• 17:44
  Neri Zilber: It's almost on a daily basis, right?
• 17:46
  Neri Zilber: You see, kind of the Arab press reporting something which then gets picked up in the Israeli press and maybe on social media.
• 17:53
  Neri Zilber: There was even a report, I believe, by Reuters yesterday about progress and a breakthrough in the talks.
• 17:59
  Neri Zilber: I discounted that report as well.
• 18:03
  Neri Zilber: So unfortunately I say this sadly you should discount all of these reports at the moment because there really isn't that much progress.
• 18:12
  Neri Zilber: To speak of, the gaps between Israel and Hamas on the core issues, as we've been talking about on this podcast for what nearly two months now, are really really wide, and I think I talked about this at length in the intro to last week's pod.
• 18:30
  Neri Zilber: Netanyahu himself, in his own words, said you know, I'm not ending the war, and if Netanyahu isn't willing to quote unquote end the war, it's very unlikely Hamas will agree to these kind of short-term ceasefires and hostage releases in installments.
• 18:46
  Neri Zilber: It doesn't have that many live hostages left, and so the trick quote unquote that was pulled on Hamas in January, enter into a ceasefire, stage one, and then kind of start negotiations over stage two with an eye to getting all the hostages back, yes, and also ending the war From Hamas's point of view.
• 19:08
  Neri Zilber: We all know that Israel didn't quite live up to that end of the bargain in terms of continuing into a stage two of the ceasefire.
• 19:17
  Neri Zilber: So I'm still quite skeptical, and we need to be skeptical, about these various reports.
• 19:23
  Neri Zilber: It doesn't do much good for the hostage families and their loved ones and all those who care about the hostages to kind of keep churning up this false hope.
• 19:34
  Neri Zilber: There's a line that says kind of illusionary action.
• 19:37
  Neri Zilber: Right, there's always kind of the appearance of action, mediators go here, mediators go there but it's motion without any real movement in terms of the core issues, at least not yet.
• 19:48
  Neri Zilber: And again, there are obviously things I don't know, but there are things I do know for a fact, and so that's.
• 19:52
  Neri Zilber: I think there are things I do know for a fact, and so that's.
• 19:56
  Neri Zilber: I think the state of play at the moment, and in terms of Qatar, yes, qatar, both in Israel, also around the Middle East and definitely in America, has become a polarizing issue, a really polarizing issue, and I don't think we need to kind of debate Qatar yes or no, positive or negative on this episode.
• 20:16
  Neri Zilber: But in terms of the hostage negotiations, I don't see any interest in Qatar, qatar kind of stalling or sabotaging the talks.
• 20:24
  Neri Zilber: I think Qatar itself would love to be behind this issue, ie to end the war and the hostage saga, to not be front and center in every kind of public utterance, whether in Israel or in Washington.
• 20:38
  Neri Zilber: So I don't see any interest on their end to establish other talks.
• 20:41
  Neri Zilber: Are they applying as much pressure as they could on Hamas?
• 20:44
  Neri Zilber: Possibly, possibly not, but you don't have to be a Qatari leader or even an Egyptian leader, the other mediator, to kind of go and tell Israel or the US hey, give us something to work with here.
• 21:01
  Neri Zilber: We can't just go to Hamas and demand Hamas sign its own death warrant, ie release the hostages in return for not ending the war, essentially continuing the war.
• 21:12
  Neri Zilber: Hamas are many things, even that Niyahu said this.
• 21:17
  Neri Zilber: Hamas aren't idiots.
• 21:19
  Neri Zilber: They're vicious, brutal murderers, but they're not idiots.
• 21:21
  Neri Zilber: I agree with the prime minister on that one.
• 21:24
  Neri Zilber: But they're also jihadists, and I think you and I have been talking about this since October of 2023.
• 21:30
  Neri Zilber: They would rather die than give up the hostages, and they would rather, by the way, they would rather die and they'd rather Gaza be burned to the ground before they give up the hostages and quote unquote lay down their weapons and surrender.
• 21:45
  Neri Zilber: I think that's been true since October of 2023.
• 21:49
  Neri Zilber: And that's where we are right now.
• 21:54
  Shanie Reichman: I think they would give up the hostages for that, but they would not lay down their arms and surrender, and that's kind of the sticking point, right.
• 22:00
  Shanie Reichman: Yeah, I mean, look they For the Israeli side.
• 22:03
  Neri Zilber: Yeah, I mean, look the Israeli side, and these aren't unreasonable requests, right?
• 22:09
  Neri Zilber: They want Hamas to give up the hostages, they want Hamas to lay down their arms and they want, essentially, gaza not to be a threat anymore to Israel.
• 22:21
  Neri Zilber: I think that's all reasonable.
• 22:23
  Neri Zilber: It's just a question of whether you can convince Hamas to do that.
• 22:26
  Neri Zilber: Again, we've been talking about this for a year and a half.
• 22:29
  Neri Zilber: Shani, their only insurance card really are the hostages.
• 22:33
  Neri Zilber: So A why would they give up the hostages if they don't have a guarantee that it's going to at least end the war for an extended period of time?
• 22:42
  Neri Zilber: These guys are committed, ideologically pure, if we can use that word jihadists.
• 22:50
  Neri Zilber: They do believe what they believe.
• 22:51
  Neri Zilber: This may seem weird to you or me or many of our Western listeners, but they're true believers, and so for them laying down their arms?
• 23:01
  Neri Zilber: No, again, they would rather die and they'd rather burn Gaza to the ground than lay down their arms, let alone go into exile, like some people here and in other places have floated.
• 23:14
  Neri Zilber: I never really bought that either, a la Yasser Arafat and his PLO back in Beirut in 1982.
• 23:22
  Neri Zilber: They're not the PLO, right?
• 23:25
  Neri Zilber: They're Hamas.
• 23:26
  Neri Zilber: So again-.
• 23:27
  Shanie Reichman: No, they're not.
• 23:28
  Neri Zilber: Right.
• 23:28
  Neri Zilber: So again, israel has requests, and they're not unreasonable.
• 23:32
  Neri Zilber: But are they realistic?
• 23:33
  Neri Zilber: For now, not so much, and the only answer we get from this Israeli government is well, more pressure will force Hamas to essentially concede its position and really concede on those big points.
• 23:48
  Neri Zilber: Give up the hostages, disarm all that.
• 23:49
  Neri Zilber: Best of luck to all of us.
• 23:52
  Neri Zilber: More military pressure.
• 23:53
  Neri Zilber: I could see Hamas very easily saying okay, we're going to call Israel's bluff, you can come and try to retake and reconquer the Gaza Strip and you're going to be dealing with an insurgency.
• 24:05
  Neri Zilber: And again, there are people here in Israel who say that should be done, that should be the strategy, that is a price we're willing to pay.
• 24:12
  Neri Zilber: I think the majority of Israelis would disagree with that position.
• 24:15
  Neri Zilber: I think the majority of Israelis would disagree with that position.
• 24:17
  Neri Zilber: I think the majority of Israelis, according to poll after poll, would say no, you need to prioritize the hostages.
• 24:23
  Neri Zilber: As I said last week, this government has been very clear the hostages are not their top priority.
• 24:29
  Neri Zilber: Okay, we'll be right back after this brief message.
• 24:33
  Speaker 3: This week marks Yom Hazikaron, israel's Memorial Day, and Yom Ha'atzmaut, israel's Independence Day.
• 24:38
  Speaker 3: The past 19 months have been the most painful period in the contemporary history of the state of Israel.
• 24:43
  Speaker 3: On this Yom Hazikaron, we pause to remember the Israelis lost to senseless terror and the soldiers who gave their lives to defend our people.
• 24:51
  Speaker 3: We continue to stand with the families of the hostages in Gaza in calling for an end to their unbearable captivity.
• 24:56
  Speaker 3: The formidable challenges facing the Jewish people today are a constant reminder.
• 24:58
  Speaker 3: Stand with the families of the hostages in Gaza in calling for an end to their unbearable captivity.
• 25:01
  Speaker 3: The formidable challenges facing the Jewish people today are a constant reminder of the necessity of a secure Jewish and democratic state of Israel.
• 25:05
  Speaker 3: On Yom Ha'atzmuth, we join Israelis and Jews around the world in celebrating Israel's independence and recommit to fighting for the future envisioned by Israel's founders.
• 25:12
  Speaker 3: The collective strength and resilience of the Jewish people can never be taken for granted.
• 25:17
  Speaker 3: Israel Policy Forum's mission is to build support for a secure, jewish, democratic Israel through a viable resolution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
• 25:25
  Speaker 3: We do that by elevating the public discourse and advancing pragmatic US policy towards the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, us-israel relations and regional diplomacy among policymakers and community leaders.
• 25:37
  Speaker 3: If you rely on Israel Policy Forum for credible, nuanced analysis.
• 25:41
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• 25:53
  Shanie Reichman: Donate now at ipfli slash supportthepod or at the Support the Show link in the show notes.
• 25:55
  Shanie Reichman: So when we think about different ways to pressure Hamas, one that comes up and is happening right now is cutting off aid to the Gaza Strip.
• 26:00
  Shanie Reichman: We've been about we're about two months into cutting of aid since that last ceasefire hostage deal ended a few months ago.
• 26:08
  Shanie Reichman: So Trump recently made some comments, which I'm not sure if they were surprising or not.
• 26:14
  Shanie Reichman: I'm not sure if they were surprising or not, but regarding aid and the need to allow more aid back into the Gaza Strip, he indicated that to American press and also said that he had spoken to Netanyahu about it.
• 26:24
  Shanie Reichman: So, first of all, is the strategy working?
• 26:26
  Shanie Reichman: To begin with, is that strategy of cutting off aid seem to actually be working to pressure Hamas?
• 26:31
  Shanie Reichman: I don't see any movement there, and do you think it'll end because of Trump's words this week?
• 26:44
  Neri Zilber: So I agree with you I don't see any real softening of Hamas's position coming out of the collapse of the ceasefire and really the end of the first stage of the ceasefire early last March.
• 26:50
  Neri Zilber: I don't see any softening and really, as of last week, israel has started taking casualties again in the Gaza Strip, tragically.
• 27:00
  Neri Zilber: So four IDF soldiers were killed over the course of last week, at least 10 were injured, and this was an array of ambushes, sniper fire, rocket-powered grenades, ieds I mean the classic signs of an insurgency.
• 27:19
  Neri Zilber: And this was after several weeks.
• 27:20
  Neri Zilber: After Israel restarted the ground operation and moved back into the various parts of southern Gaza, northern Gaza and then the northeastern part of Gaza, it seemed like Hamas kind of retreated and wasn't engaging fully with the IDF.
• 27:35
  Neri Zilber: That seems to have changed over the past week, so I don't see a softening of Hamas's position.
• 27:41
  Neri Zilber: And again, the situation at some point, and some point very soon, will become quite dire inside Gaza.
• 27:49
  Neri Zilber: And again, we can discuss this with our friend and colleague, shira Efron, who follows the humanitarian issue in Gaza closer than most.
• 27:58
  Neri Zilber: We're only a few weeks away from there being a major, major crisis.
• 28:02
  Neri Zilber: And then the question is okay, what does Israel do?
• 28:06
  Neri Zilber: You're already hearing signs from inside the Israeli system that, yes, we likely will need to restart humanitarian aid deliveries into the Gaza Strip to avoid a real disaster.
• 28:20
  Neri Zilber: Donald Trump said what he said be good to Gaza.
• 28:23
  Neri Zilber: I think were his words.
• 28:24
  Neri Zilber: Yeah, it was surprising coming from the man and the US president who gave voice to his Riviera of the Middle East plan for the future of Gaza, which essentially, to the best of anyone's understanding, meant clearing Gaza out from Gazans and then maybe you're maybe not letting them come back.
• 28:49
  Shanie Reichman: Yes, and I'm not sure he saw it that way.
• 28:51
  Shanie Reichman: I agree, but I'm not sure he saw it that way.
• 28:53
  Shanie Reichman: I think he sees himself as a humanitarian, which again is confusing given a lot of his policies and rhetoric.
• 28:57
  Shanie Reichman: But I think that I think he sees himself as a humanitarian, which again is confusing given a lot of his policies and rhetoric.
• 28:59
  Shanie Reichman: But I think that's how he sees himself.
• 29:02
  Neri Zilber: Nobody thinks they're the baddie, right?
• 29:04
  Neri Zilber: Nobody thinks they're the bad guy in their own movie.
• 29:07
  Neri Zilber: So I'm sure Donald Trump believes that he's the good guy and that he's trying to do what's best for the people of the world.
• 29:16
  Neri Zilber: Does it always come out that way?
• 29:18
  Neri Zilber: I think there's many Ukrainians who would disagree, and not just Ukrainians, obviously given what's happening domestically in America.
• 29:28
  Neri Zilber: But that's not an issue for this podcast.
• 29:31
  Neri Zilber: It was a surprise Donald Trump talked about that.
• 29:35
  Neri Zilber: I think it was in response to a journalist question about the humanitarian situation in Gaza.
• 29:40
  Neri Zilber: So the fact that Donald Trump said something doesn't mean that he will say the same thing tomorrow or the next day.
• 29:48
  Neri Zilber: So we also have to kind of keep that in mind in terms of taking the US president's word as gospel.
• 29:55
  Neri Zilber: But yes, I think that will have an impact on Israel if even the Trump administration says, hey, you can't continue with zero aid, literally zero aid for another month, two months, three months, and so on and so forth.
• 30:11
  Neri Zilber: It remains to be seen whether the Trump administration holds the line, like the Biden administration held the line on the aid issue.
• 30:18
  Neri Zilber: And then so the question for Israel is okay, how do you go about restarting aid supplies in a way that doesn't benefit Hamas.
• 30:28
  Neri Zilber: So Hamas, for much of this war, was essentially siphoning aid, stealing aid and using it either for its own purposes, its own people, its own fighters, its own fighters' families, or selling it on the black market to make money and to keep its war machine, its terror machine, going.
• 30:47
  Neri Zilber: And there are various ideas here in Israel about how that could work, something I'm looking into at the moment because it's an important issue.
• 30:56
  Neri Zilber: I'm still skeptical whether there is a way to circumvent Hamas, whether through private military contractors, ie mercenaries securing convoys.
• 31:07
  Neri Zilber: Some people here in the far right, like Finance Minister B'Tsele Samotrich and Itamar Benver, want the IDF to distribute aid inside Gaza, which I think is a terrible idea for a number of reasons, and one of those reasons is that the IDF soldiers handing out aid will become very easy targets inside Gaza, and I think the IDF and IDF Chief of Staff Yael Zamir understand that.
• 31:33
  Neri Zilber: Understand that.
• 31:41
  Neri Zilber: So again, no IDF, but no Hamas.
• 31:42
  Neri Zilber: In terms of aid, maybe there's a mechanism with partial IDF cover, with private military contractors, combined with the international community, the UN and other NGOs.
• 31:50
  Neri Zilber: That's probably the best slash only plan.
• 31:55
  Neri Zilber: Will it work?
• 31:56
  Neri Zilber: Maybe that's kind of the best anyone can say.
• 31:59
  Neri Zilber: Maybe it'll work, probably won't work.
• 32:02
  Shanie Reichman: Well, this is the same question that comes up for managing the Gaza Strip.
• 32:06
  Shanie Reichman: Governing the Gaza Strip, to begin with?
• 32:08
  Shanie Reichman: Right?
• 32:08
  Shanie Reichman: If it's not Israel and not Hamas, then who is it?
• 32:11
  Shanie Reichman: There's obviously a question on the Palestinian Authority, but if we had an answer to this question of who should be governing the Gaza Strip, if Israel had an answer to that question, that would be the entity that would manage the aid.
• 32:21
  Shanie Reichman: Right, a lot of these questions would be answered in some way.
• 32:26
  Neri Zilber: It may not be answered 100%, but it would be the beginning of a reasonable answer, both in terms of the reality on the ground and in terms of the international community.
• 32:34
  Neri Zilber: But this goes back to the other big issue of this war and this government's handling of this war is that there's no real post-war planning to speak of.
• 32:45
  Neri Zilber: They just don't want to address it in terms of putting out a realistic vision for what Gaza will be and how Gaza will be governed the day after the war ends.
• 32:55
  Neri Zilber: Now.
• 32:56
  Neri Zilber: Will this government ever end this war?
• 32:58
  Neri Zilber: That's a question for another time.
• 33:02
  Neri Zilber: Hopefully we're not asking that question 18 months from now, shani, like we have been for the past 18 months.
• 33:08
  Neri Zilber: But yes, I mean we'll probably get into it in a minute, but it's been a year since last year's Memorial Day, yom Ha'atzmaut, independence Day.
• 33:19
  Neri Zilber: It's been 18 months, maybe more now 19 months, nearly since October 7th 2023.
• 33:28
  Neri Zilber: If you had started putting together, say, a real Palestinian Authority security force for Gaza a year and a half ago, their level of training would be much better than not.
• 33:40
  Neri Zilber: And again, some of that may be happening behind the scenes, but maybe not at scale and definitely not with the buy-in of this Israeli government, and that's true for many other kind of post-war plans for Gaza that you could have started instituting months ago and yet never happened.
• 33:59
  Neri Zilber: This may be both a very good transition and very bad transition to the current day here in Israel, but it struck me one of the fallen Israelis of this past week.
• 34:13
  Neri Zilber: He enlisted into the IDF for mandatory service in December of 2023.
• 34:21
  Neri Zilber: So two months after October 7th was when he went into the army and, tragically, he was killed in Gaza.
• 34:30
  Neri Zilber: He was only 19.
• 34:31
  Neri Zilber: So you're already seeing kind of the you know it's not even the generation before October 7th kind of serving and fighting in this war and all the reservists that deployed for 200, 300, 400 days over the past year and a half.
• 34:47
  Neri Zilber: It's now the kids essentially who were still in high school or just finished high school on October 7th and then they enlisted and now they're fighting in Gaza.
• 34:59
  Shanie Reichman: Thinking about the mood in Israel today.
• 35:02
  Shanie Reichman: Of course, it's always a bit jarring how Israel has this day of mourning that transitions into a day of celebration, with Israel's Independence Day immediately succeeding it.
• 35:11
  Shanie Reichman: I want to start by sharing Yarden Bibas's post.
• 35:15
  Shanie Reichman: He was, of course, in Hamas captivity for a very long time, and his wife Shiri, and two sons, kfir and Ariel, were both killed in Hamas's hands on October 7th, so he posted a picture that said there is no independence while they are still there, they of course being the hostages who remain in Gaza.
• 35:36
  Shanie Reichman: He went on to say that when he was in captivity, he could not have imagined that Israel and Israelis would have been celebrating Independence Day while he sits in a tunnel, and that really resonated very deeply with me.
• 35:47
  Shanie Reichman: On the other hand, we just commemorated Yom HaShoah, holocaust Remembrance Day, and we know that Jews have gone through many hardships and do continue to be joyful and celebrate regardless of what calamities are upon us, and in some ways there is even a Jewish obligation to do so, especially since, throughout history, jews are notorious for experiencing these types of hardships, and I certainly share your sentiment.
• 36:11
  Shanie Reichman: But I guess I wonder, given that it is hard to imagine celebrating right now, what is the public mood?
• 36:16
  Shanie Reichman: Is it more towards this idea that we cannot celebrate while there are those in captivity, or are we leaning towards the idea that we have to be happy and joyful despite all of that?
• 36:29
  Neri Zilber: I'm not going to speak for the entire state of Israel.
• 36:32
  Neri Zilber: I will say it's both right.
• 36:34
  Neri Zilber: There are many people here who will not be celebrating this year, just like many people did not celebrate last year, when October 7th was still quite fresh and quite raw and there were many more hostages in captivity.
• 36:49
  Neri Zilber: And yet, even last year people did go out and they did have barbecues, kind of on Independence Day Eve and then on Independence Day.
• 36:58
  Neri Zilber: So it was already kind of removed enough, I would say, from october 7th, and the ongoing war, which definitely was still ongoing last year, is this year.
• 37:09
  Neri Zilber: So it's mixed, uh, and it's kind of this, uh, this cognitive dissonance, uh, that's always here in israel, where people try to kind of continue on with their daily life and find joy and comfort where they can, no matter what political or military or security issue is swirling above their heads and sometimes even down the road.
• 37:32
  Neri Zilber: So that's very, very Israeli.
• 37:34
  Neri Zilber: And, look, Memorial Day is a very somber day but then, like it has been now for what?
• 37:42
  Neri Zilber: 77 years?
• 37:43
  Neri Zilber: It's followed very quickly by Independence Day Eve, which is fireworks and parties and everyone's out that night and celebrating.
• 37:54
  Neri Zilber: So it's always quite jarring, obviously more so since October 7th and the start of the war.
• 37:59
  Neri Zilber: It is interesting, I can't quite remember where I was or what I did this time last year, during Memorial Day and Independence Day.
• 38:07
  Neri Zilber: I mean, it's all kind of a blur these days, but I do remember there was a moment on Memorial Day Eve and we're recording this on Memorial Day Eve this year and you have this ceremony at the Kotel at the Western Wall in Jerusalem, as you do every year, and all the security chiefs are there and there's kind of a ceremony for the fallen, for the fallen and the representatives of those who have fell not just soldiers, by the way, but also civilians killed in terror attacks throughout the years.
• 38:39
  Neri Zilber: And I think it was the first time since October 7th this kind of public moment and obviously a memorial event.
• 38:50
  Neri Zilber: We had all the security chiefs responsible for October 7th in one place, essentially kind of bowing their heads and asking for forgiveness for what they did.
• 38:59
  Neri Zilber: And that was last year, and this year all the security chiefs are gone.
• 39:03
  Neri Zilber: I mean, Ronan Barr will be there, but he's on his way out, and just that Yahoo is left to bring it back full circle.
• 39:12
  Neri Zilber: And so that was what struck me last year.
• 39:14
  Neri Zilber: Is that how awful this failure was for these security professionals who have spent their entire lives working to at least their professional lives, their adult lives, working to protect this country, and how they must be feeling.
• 39:29
  Neri Zilber: And then this year I don't know if we're going to have that same sense because it's a different IDF chief of staff, it's a different IDF general staff, IDF chief of staff at the different IDF general staff, new defense minister who was brought in by Netanyahu late last year.
• 39:46
  Neri Zilber: So I don't know how it will go this year.
• 39:47
  Neri Zilber: My sense is that this year there's much greater polarization.
• 39:52
  Neri Zilber: There will be greater polarization Memorial Day and also Independence Day.
• 39:59
  Neri Zilber: The war itself, I think, has become more political in terms of continuing the war or stopping it to get a hostage deal.
• 40:08
  Neri Zilber: That was in the ether.
• 40:10
  Neri Zilber: That was definitely a public debate issue last year as well, but I think more so now after 18 months.
• 40:17
  Neri Zilber: And also, we have to remember last year obviously there was the Gaza War, but there was still a war in the north.
• 40:29
  Neri Zilber: There were still the Iranian threats and the Houthis were still firing missiles.
• 40:31
  Neri Zilber: I mean, they're still firing missiles, but it was a different situation.
• 40:32
  Neri Zilber: The war in the north is over.
• 40:35
  Neri Zilber: I was in the north a couple of weeks ago and it's remarkable, this used to be a war zone in northern Israel and now people are going on hikes, Kiryat Shmona is full of people again, Life returns to normal, as it quickly does here in Israel, and even southern Israel has rebuilt and people have moved back, not to the communities in the Kibbutzim definitely raised and burned to the communities and the people would seem, you know, definitely raised and burned to the ground, but in the other places Hamas is a different Hamas than it was a year ago, and so I think, on that, that's kind of the positive side of the ledger.
• 41:11
  Neri Zilber: But, like I said, negatively it's become much more political whether you continue on with this war and really it's a war now in Gaza and it's going to likely escalate and turn into quite a difficult insurgency to what the government says, quote unquote destroy Hamas right, Finally destroy Hamas.
• 41:29
  Neri Zilber: Or, on the other side of the debate, to have priority given to a deal to end the war in return for getting the 59 hostages back, including over 20 who are still alive, and so I think that'll be the fault line this year and we'll be a lot smarter on the other side of Memorial Day and Independence Day.
• 41:52
  Neri Zilber: But yes, it's not just the kind of domestic internal fissure that we've had here now for several years, let's say in terms of Netanyahu and his government and the type of people in the government versus, let's say, the more liberal anti-Netanyahu forces inside this country.
• 42:13
  Neri Zilber: For the first time, there's actually a debate over the merits of the war, and that's new, yeah.
• 42:23
  Shanie Reichman: We'll see where all this takes us.
• 42:24
  Shanie Reichman: I hope that you and all of our listeners have a meaningful and maybe celebratory memorial and independence day here in Israel.
• 42:35
  Neri Zilber: Thank you, shani, and it's interesting.
• 42:37
  Neri Zilber: I mean, I didn't start off the podcast by asking how were the, how were the holidays, how was Passover on your end?
• 42:43
  Neri Zilber: but very rude but I hope it was, like you said, meaningful and enjoyable, especially with your, your new addition, so maybe expanded family Seder, but I will say here in Israel, so you had Passover Pesach, like what, two weeks ago and now you have this kind of weird long weekend with Memorial Day and Penance Day, so on the other side of it in May.
• 43:16
  Neri Zilber: I think that will be kind answers, but we'll likely see a much clearer direction of travel on these various issues, both domestically and in terms of the Gaza war starting in May.
• 43:28
  Shanie Reichman: I love that in Israel, geopolitics and war talk all go based on a holiday schedule.
• 43:33
  Shanie Reichman: We don't have such a thing here, as far as I know.
• 43:36
  Shanie Reichman: Like, oh, when Christmas break is over, then it does not exist uh I guess it does in congress, but not in a military sense it does.
• 43:47
  Neri Zilber: It does in congress.
• 43:48
  Neri Zilber: I think it's.
• 43:48
  Neri Zilber: I think it's less an american concept, because I think us americans we work all the time, uh, but definitely let's say in europe, uh, you know, july, august is, is a no-go.
• 44:00
  Neri Zilber: You have the quote-unquote holidays in the winter that go on forever, and so you know there's a reason why various dictators start wars in August and December.
• 44:18
  Neri Zilber: You know, if they want the attention of Washington and quote, unquote the West to not be fully engaged on the issue, they do it in the depths of summer, yeah, when everyone's on vacation.
• 44:29
  Neri Zilber: Yeah, if Americans go on vacation.
• 44:32
  Speaker 3: But yeah here, it's a real thing.
• 44:35
  Neri Zilber: Starting in an hour or two, everything will shut down here in Tel Aviv and across the country.
• 44:42
  Neri Zilber: And then tomorrow people go to work, but you still have, obviously, all the ceremonies, so it's not a proper workday.
• 44:49
  Neri Zilber: And then you head into Independence Day Eve and Independence Day proper, which is a national holiday, combined with the long weekend Shabbat.
• 44:59
  Neri Zilber: So, yes, nothing will get done until next week, given this government.
• 45:04
  Neri Zilber: I don't know whether that's a good thing or a bad thing, but it just is.
• 45:07
  Neri Zilber: We'll have to wait until next week.
• 45:11
  Shanie Reichman: Okay, I'll see you, nari.
• 45:12
  Shanie Reichman: Bye.
• 45:13
  Neri Zilber: Thanks, Shani Bye.
• 45:24
  Neri Zilber: Thank you.