Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 357 - 9/22/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 357 - 9/22/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

0:19
Hello, and welcome to episode 357 of the All Systems Go sports
0:25
Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
0:28
I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on, everyone?
0:35
Happy Monday, a new week begins, but we still got to finish up
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NFL Week 3. Big Monday Night Football
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showdown here tonight, guys, Detroit Lions and the Baltimore
0:45
Ravens. So we're going to talk through
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this one here for tonight. Got some big line movement as
0:50
well as a ton of system matches. Interesting bet splits.
0:52
And man, this total just keeps going up.
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It was opening about 50 1/2. I've seen it now get up to as
0:58
high as 54 1/2. When I was writing my sharp
1:00
report for visen.com earlier today was 53 1/2.
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So either this thing is going to fly over or it is an incredible
1:07
inflated primetime contrarian under opportunity.
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So we'll talk about that. Obviously the side in the total
1:13
and we have to recap what happened this weekend because
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boy was it a insane weekend in the betting world.
1:20
Now looking back towards Saturday, great college football
1:22
day. I don't know about you guys.
1:23
I'm doing better at college football than NFL.
1:25
We'll see if that continues. Obviously I want to stay hot
1:29
college football and continue to or continue to improve.
1:33
I should say because it's early in the year with the NFL.
1:35
But anyway, Saturday, either a three and 1 + 1.27 day or two
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and O + 1.56 unit day, because officially on the pod when I
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unveiled the final best bet card for the weekend, they're only
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two plays. It was Louisiana Tech on the
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money line. They came through, they won 30
1:51
to 20. And then also Texas Tech backup
1:54
quarterback played absolutely great.
1:56
Went into Utah and rolled and you know what I like throughout
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that game? They now have the Barstool crew
2:01
on that on those Fox games and they have like Portnoy and Big
2:04
Cat and everyone, you know, talking about betting before and
2:07
everyone's like yeah, Utah, Utah, Utah, Utah.
2:09
So once I heard all the ball barstool Bros talking up Utah, I
2:13
was like, oh, we're on the right side here with Texas Tech.
2:15
So Texas Tech 3 1/2, they went out right and really rolled 34
2:19
to 10. I did add both North Texas and
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Miami, Ohio late. Now, Miami, Ohio was a game that
2:24
we had talked about much throughout the week and I was
2:27
saying I couldn't get the three, so I might as well layoff.
2:29
Well, I saw it get down to 1 1/2 and I was able to get a book
2:33
still offering 2 1/2. So I felt like there was an edge
2:35
there and then up losing by three.
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But if you watch that game, they're up the entire game.
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They're up by like 14 at one point in the fourth quarter and
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they're tied late going down the field, probably going to walk
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off with a field goal and win it.
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Their star running back fumbles, gives the ball up, coughs it up.
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You see, you know, their opponent there, go right down
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UNLV and score. So that that running back
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screwed us fumbling, but did add North Texas and that was a
3:00
really incredible sweat. And overtime that was a dog to
3:03
fave line move. North Texas flipped from a dog
3:06
to a favorite. So whether you went two and O or
3:08
three and one, basically 1 1/2 units there on Saturday, which
3:13
was good to see. Now Sunday, 4/5 and 1 -, 1.5
3:17
units. On the one hand, I was nervous
3:20
going in because I had 10 plays and I said I just want to
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maximize this edge with the O and two teams that are dogs,
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which have covered 69% of the time.
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And actually they ended up going five and four ATS.
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So they'll, you know, it ended up being pretty good.
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But I was always, I'm always wary of having too many plays.
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And 4-5 and 1 -, 1, five units, the one that really, really hurt
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us there. So the winners, the Bears plus 1
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1/2 Browns plus 8 1/2 Panthers plus 5 1/2 Jets plus 7.
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The losers though, the Saints, the Texans, the Titans, the
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Giants. Russell Wilson is a complete,
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you know what, let us down. I don't know why Jackson Dart
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isn't playing, but the Rams, can we just take a minute to just,
3:57
you know, together, hold hands, kumbaya and just, you know,
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just, I don't know, try to try to keep our sanity with what
4:03
happened in the Rams game. Because if you didn't watch that
4:05
game, I'm sure you might have had action on it or you're
4:08
watching the game anyway. Rams are in control the entire
4:11
game. They're up big, they're
4:12
dominating. They get the ball back down by
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1. They're going down the field.
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All they have to do is is kick a walk off field.
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I don't even think it was that far.
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It was like 35 yards. Not only do they miss the field
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goal, and that's fine because we still would have covered the 3
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1/2, but the big man kid from Georgia does.
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Davis, I forgot his name, picks up the ball, blocks the kick
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first, picks up the ball, runs like 90 yards the other way to
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ensure that not only do we lose the game, but we lose the bet.
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So plus 3 1/2 looking good. Walk it off, blocked return for
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a touchdown and up. Losing by what was it, 6 or 7?
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So I would argue that is the worst bad beat of the year so
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far. Sometimes that's going to
4:53
happen. My buddy Maddie Humans, who's a
4:56
really sharp wise guy at VSN, he had a tweet about how that was
4:58
like the worst bad beat he's experienced in a while.
5:01
But man, that is that that's the margin of error, the thin, the
5:04
thin red line, whatever you want to call it, because you know,
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Rams, Rams cover, which they should have.
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You know, you flip from a four or five in one day to a, you
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know, A5. What was it?
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You know, 5 or even more than that, you have a winning day.
5:17
So that that was really rough that Rams game.
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I still can't get over it. You know that that was that was
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just absolutely brutal. And then the importance of
5:24
getting these key numbers. The Denver Broncos +3 they push,
5:27
but they're around 2 1/2. You got to shop around, get the
5:29
three. They lose by three.
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They should have won the game outright.
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They gave up I think 10 points late.
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So great Saturday in college NFL Sunday, not the worst in the
5:38
world, but it's going to take me a while to get over that Rams
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bad beat. And again, those of you who've
5:44
been betting NFL long enough, this happens sometimes.
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I mean, I, I could also say that The Jets +7 they blocked the
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kicked and and brought it back to score.
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So that was some good luck there on our side.
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But man, you really, it's funny you you love the wins, but the
6:00
losses are what really gets you. And that Rams plus 3 1/2 that
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that's about as bad as it gets. Again, kick in the field, goal
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block to score. And again, he had to run and
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score a touchdown. Good for you, man, but just get
6:11
on the ground, grab the ball, get on the ground, game's over.
6:14
You, you had to I, I would have wished someone caught up to him,
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knocked it out and maybe something else happened.
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But what are you going to do? This is me venting because the
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Rams plus 3 1/2 that is in the Hall of Fame bad beats and that
6:24
was absolutely brutal yesterday. But anyway, we turn the page
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going to see if we can finish off NFL Week 3 on a hot note and
6:31
then we're going to of course, progress through the week.
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Tomorrow we'll talk early college football sharp line
6:37
moves. Wednesday, it'll be sharp NFL.
6:39
And then we do have a Seattle, Arizona Thursday night game
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coming up here, which has already been seen this line fall
6:45
away from Arizona towards Seattle.
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I know James Conner got hurt. So we'll we'll have to hit on
6:50
that one a little bit later in the week.
6:51
But anyway, see if we can finish up with a winner here.
6:55
Let's talk about this big game here tonight, Monday Night
6:57
Football, Lions and Ravens. So 8:15 PM Eastern Time tonight.
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Little background, both teams are one and one.
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Both teams coming off big wins. The Lions just crushed the Bears
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52 to 21 in Week 2, easily covered as a 6 1/2 point home
7:12
favorite. Meanwhile, the Ravens just
7:14
crushed the Browns 41 to 17, covered as a 12 1/2 point home
7:17
favorite. So what do you see across the
7:19
board here? Well, the public or sorry, let's
7:22
talk about line movement. This line opened as high as
7:25
Baltimore -6 1/2 at home. So pretty big number here.
7:28
The public is leaning Ravens can't quit Lamar Jackson, high
7:32
flying offense, Derrick Henry, yadda yadda.
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Relatively, I don't know, not a relatively short number, but 6
7:37
1/2 is, you know, kind of mid tier.
7:40
But it's clear that the public is back in Jackson because Lamar
7:43
Jackson right now, DraftKings getting 57% of spread bets.
7:47
Now that's not 77%, but it's clear that the majority tickets
7:51
are on Baltimore. But here's the key.
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When we're talking and comparing line movement to bet splits, the
7:56
key to me is to find things that don't make sense.
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Like if the Ravens are getting 90% of spread bets and they went
8:02
from -6 F to -7 -, 7 F, that's pretty much standard heavy
8:06
betting. Odds makers move the line toward
8:08
the popular side to make it more expensive, to back the popular
8:11
side to mitigate risk, and then also provide a better number on
8:15
the dog to entice some betting on the other side.
8:17
That's normal. What's not normal is reverse
8:20
line movement when you have betting heavy on one side, but
8:22
the line goes away from the popular side toward the
8:25
unpopular side. And that's what we're seeing
8:26
here with Detroit. Because even though you're
8:29
getting nearly 60% of tickets on Baltimore, Baltimore has fallen
8:33
-6 1/2 down to -4 1/2. So that tells me we had some
8:38
good sharp money backing Detroit in the points.
8:41
Detroit, aside from that big line move.
8:43
And again, why are the oddsmakers dropping the
8:45
Baltimore number to make it easier for the public to cover
8:48
on Baltimore when they're already laying the points to
8:50
begin with? Oddsmakers are saying, hey, you
8:52
like that 6 1/2, now you only got to lay 4 1/2.
8:54
So come on down, double down, triple down on Baltimore.
8:57
But you guys out there, yeah, I know you're sharp.
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When you see a reverse line move like that, you got to stop, take
9:02
a step back, say, why is this line falling toward the
9:05
unpopular side? Well, it tells me again, smart
9:07
money came in on Detroit. So aside from that reverse line
9:09
move, Detroit is also a bet against the public play.
9:12
Now, it's not hugely lopsided, but they're only getting 43% of
9:16
spread bets and a heavily bet nationally televised primetime
9:19
game. So drunk guys at the BA back in
9:22
Lamar Jackson. We can go the other way with
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Detroit now at Circa. This is a really interesting
9:27
split. Only 27% of spread bets on
9:30
Detroit at Circa, but it accounts for 80% of the dollars.
9:35
So that's a pretty good low bets.
9:36
Higher dollar split telling us the bigger wagers in Vegas also
9:38
going Detroit. We layer in some system matches
9:41
here. If we look at prime time dogs,
9:44
they're six and three against the spread so far this season.
9:47
67% and they are 147 and 129 against the spread. 53 percent,
9:53
2% ROI since 2020. Short Rd. dogs getting +6 or
9:57
less, They're 318 and 267 ATS, 54% with a 5% ROI since 2019.
10:04
So a couple systems here lighting up on Detroit, which
10:07
coincides with the sharp RLM play.
10:10
Also, when both teams are coming off a blowout win again, Detroit
10:14
won by like 30 against Chicago. Baltimore won by 20 plus against
10:19
the Browns, both off a blowout win of 20 or more.
10:21
Take the road dog. That's eight and four against
10:23
the spread, 67% since 2018. Then you layer in some more
10:28
system matches. Dan Campbell, he's been pretty
10:30
good as a dog. As head coach of the Lions, he's
10:33
23 and 11 against the spread, 68 percent, 38% ROI when getting
10:38
points. Lamar Jackson, I know there's a
10:40
stat out there I think he's like 12 and one ATS as a dog.
10:45
But when he's favored by 4 1/2 or more, he's only 18 and 26
10:48
against the spread. 41%. By the way, Bill Vinovich if you
10:52
want to get into some ref talk. He's 57% ATS historically to the
10:56
road team. So he probably wants to show how
10:59
unbiased he is by maybe favoring the road team and not letting
11:02
the crowd get to him. Detroit would also match as a
11:05
dog who can score system play. This kind of was the same one
11:09
with Texas Tech in that college football game.
11:11
If you're on a dog and you need them to cover, they either have
11:14
to play lights out defense, keep it low scoring in cover, or they
11:17
got to put up a lot of points to keep pace or backdoor cover.
11:20
Well Detroit, I know Aidan Hutchinson is healthy and pretty
11:23
decent on defense, but really offense is their calling card
11:27
and they are averaging 34 points a game.
11:28
That's 4th best in the NFL. Now, if you do want to tease the
11:32
Lions, I'm not going to argue because 4 1/2 up to 10 1/2 is a
11:36
Wong teaser going through multiple key numbers.
11:38
So lose by 7 or 10, you cover that number.
11:41
So if you do have an open leg on a a teaser and you know you got
11:44
to fit one in, I'm not going to argue with taking Detroit up
11:46
here. We do have also a huge line move
11:51
toward the total. I kind of hinted at this
11:52
earlier, but open at 50 1/2, you're all the way up to 53 and
11:56
a half 5454 1/2. Now I want no part of this total
12:00
because on the one hand there's been nothing but over movement
12:04
with no buyback. So if this is a, you know, 34 to
12:08
31 game, I'll be happy because I'm on my official play.
12:11
My only play tonight is Detroit. I actually got plus 5 1/2 at
12:14
FanDuel little bit earlier. Most books are down to 4 1/2 at
12:18
this point, but you'll say yeah, it was obvious Steam no buyback
12:22
flew over. But it's a little tricky with
12:25
these primetime games because if you look at primetime unders,
12:28
they're six and four this year they're 58 percent, 12% ROI
12:32
since 2019. Bill Vinovich is the number one
12:35
under ref in football. Weirdly, he's number one Rd.
12:38
team and he's #1 under. And we do have like 80% of bets
12:41
taking the over here. So I have to respect the fact
12:44
that a lot of big money came in and played this over.
12:47
But think of it this way. If you're playing the over over
12:49
53 and half, 5454 and half, you're getting the absolute
12:52
worst of the number. Now again, it may fly over and
12:54
it may not matter, but do I want to go with the big steam with no
13:00
buy back or do I want to buy low and maybe take under 54 1/2 with
13:04
a good under ref, with a really good contrarian play and prime
13:07
time under system match, I think you can make a case for both
13:10
sides. And when you're trying to bet a
13:12
game and you can make a case for both sides, I think the best
13:15
thing to do is lay off. So if you tell me like the over,
13:18
I'm going to say, yeah, the market's with you.
13:20
If you tell me you want to buy low and go under, man, that is
13:22
an epic contrarian buy low inflated line play.
13:25
So my only play here guys, I'm pretty clear this line's moving
13:28
toward Detroit. Their contrarian play with some
13:30
reverse line movement. They have a great bet.
13:32
Split out at Circa. We have a ton of system matches
13:34
lighting up on Detroit prime time dogs, Short Rd. dogs,
13:38
Campbell as a dog, Vinovich as a road team.
13:41
Lamar Jackson struggled covering numbers over 4 1/2 dog who can
13:45
score system match. I'm playing the lions here guys.
13:48
So I am officially on Detroit Lions.
13:51
I got them again plus 5 1/2. Shameless plug, if you want to
13:54
support the team $4.99 a week, you can get the official best
13:58
bets and you would have gotten that 5 1/2 alert on juice reel
14:02
earlier today. But now you're looking at 4 1/2
14:05
and you can save a little bit of juice, I believe plus 4 1/2 at
14:09
-1 O 5 at FanDuel right now. But I'm going to I'm going to
14:13
stick with the a sharp dog here and see if Detroit can bark.
14:16
I'm on the Lions again. Plus 5 1/2 some shops down now
14:20
or most shops down to 4 1/2. So that about does it for
14:23
episode 357 of the All systems Go sports betting podcast
14:27
powered by rhythm. Little short and sweet on a
14:29
Monday because you guys might be tired from all the sweats over
14:32
the weekend. I still can't get over Miami,
14:34
Ohio and the Rams. And also, you know what really
14:37
bugged me about the Giants game last night?
14:40
There was a play where the Giants are battling.
14:42
You know, they, they came to play first half Patrick Mahomes
14:45
throws a backwards lateral that would have been called a fumble
14:48
and two Giants defenders could have scooped the ball up, scored
14:53
or just fell on it and Giants would have the ball like the
14:55
five yard line to take the lead instead.
14:58
This is why Patrick Mahomes is is great.
15:00
Patrick Mahomes beelines it over to the ball.
15:03
He knew it was going to be called a fumble.
15:05
He stole it away from. I forgot who the defender was,
15:09
Brian Burns or O Caracay or whoever, but once that happened
15:12
and the giants didn't cover that fumble, I'm like that's going to
15:15
cost us and obviously it did and Russell Wilson could not do
15:18
anything offensively. So this is the life of a better.
15:22
You guys know it. You you have your laments as
15:24
well. But hey, you buy the ticket, you
15:26
take the ride. So anyway, guys going to finish
15:28
up strong here. As always, leaving with some
15:30
final thoughts and and links and you know, places you can go to.
15:34
Next after the pod ends 1st, I just want to say thank you.
15:37
Thank you for listening, Thank you for tuning in.
15:39
If you do have some free time and you want to give this
15:41
podcast a five star review on Spotify or iTunes, I'd very much
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appreciate that. If you want to click the follow
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button, if you want to leave a nice comment, if you want to
15:49
recommend the pod to a friend, that would also be fantastic.
15:53
Next, if you enjoy the style of betting breakdown, data-driven
15:58
sharp contrarian betting and you maybe want to learn more about
16:00
data-driven betting or you want to bone up on your NFL systems
16:05
and strategies, There's actually a game upcoming in Ireland, dog
16:07
to fave. We'll talk about it later, but
16:09
international series favorites. I have a a little chapter in the
16:13
book on that Vikings Vikings money line.
16:18
But anyway, if you want to learn more about data-driven betting,
16:20
if you want to let me know you appreciate the pot.
16:21
If you have someone in your life who is looking to bet on sports
16:24
and doesn't know how to begin. Or maybe they bet on sports and
16:27
lose a lot and they just bet with their heart.
16:28
They never even look at line movement, split system, matches,
16:31
any of the stuff. Taking a contrarian approach.
16:33
Well, I would love for you guys to go to Amazon.com and type in
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the NFL Sharp Betting Playbook and then type in the everything
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Guide to sports betting. I wrote two books.
16:42
They're both available on Amazon.
16:44
If you were, if you would be so kind as to purchasing one or
16:47
both of them, you would make my day.
16:50
If you want to leave a nice comment under the review section
16:52
on Amazon, Five Star review, I will take that of course as
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well. And you bring one or both of
16:57
those books to the sports book. I'll meet you at the Nash in
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Nashville, New Hampshire. That's my closest book.
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I'll sign them for you. I'll buy a beer or ginger ale
17:04
and we'll sweat the we'll sweat the Lions together tonight.
17:07
Next, have you downloaded Juice Reel and Rhythm yet?
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Juice Reel has so many great benefits to it.
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It's cost $4.99 a week. So for 5 bucks to get all the
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Again, oddslogic.com/josh 123. And then of course, I know you
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20:06
my Twitter page at Josh under score insights.
20:09
So that about does it for episode 357 on a Monday.
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Going to hopefully finish up football week strong here
20:15
tonight go Lions. But as always, guys, two final
20:18
thoughts whether I see you. At the Borgata in Atlantic City,
20:22
Twin River in Rhode Island, the brook of New Hampshire, Foxwoods
20:24
or Mohegan Sun down in Connecticut, the Encore in
20:27
Boston, Plain Ridge Park casino, MGM Springfield.
20:30
The Nash in my neck of the woods in New England are out in the
20:32
desert where the true grinders get down.
20:34
Where Billy Walter sends his number runners, where the lowest
20:36
juice possible is found at the South Point.
20:38
Or sweat and sharp contrarian plays jumping in the stadium
20:41
swimming pool when he cash a big ticket at Circa.
20:43
You're going to walk up to me. You're going to show me
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Louisiana Tech, Texas Tech, North Texas, the bears, the
20:50
Browns, the Panthers, The Jets. Whatever you do, though, do not
20:54
show me Rams plus 3 1/2. Do not show me Miami.
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OH, honestly, I was annoyed by Miami Ohio, but that pales in
21:02
comparison to that Rams game. I it'll it's going to take me a
21:05
long time to get over that Rams bad beat.
21:08
That was absolutely crushing. But anyway, guys, that's sports
21:11
betting for you. So we're going to keep grinding,
21:13
sticking to the model, sticking to the blueprint.
21:15
There's going to be bad beats. There's going to be great
21:17
backdoor covers. That's just part of it, but you
21:19
know what we can do? We can stick to the model, stick
21:21
to the blueprint. We discipline with our bankroll
21:23
management, find games that fit our model against the public,
21:27
with the house, with the pros, flat bet, avoid parlays, get
21:30
that closing line value. If we can do that and I'm
21:32
confident that we can guess what we're going to be successful
21:35
sports bettors. So have a great Monday night
21:37
everybody, enjoy Monday Night Football, Go Lions and I will
21:41
see you tomorrow for a Tuesday edition.
21:43
That'll be episode 358 of the All Systems Go Sports Betting
21:47
podcast, powered by Rhythm. Good luck everybody, and go Dan
21:51
Campbell and the boys. Good luck.