Latest / CattleUSA Daily / 205: Drought, Cold, and a Wild Winter Ahead? Breaking Down the LRC with Gary

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205: Drought, Cold, and a Wild Winter Ahead? Breaking Down the LRC with Gary · CattleUSA Daily

• 0:00
  Happy Monday and today's podcast episode with Gary Lezak.
• 0:03
  We are chatting all things weather pattern, what is going
• 0:08
  to be happening and what are our kind of initial thoughts.
• 0:10
  We discuss the drought conditions that we're kind of
• 0:13
  seeing right now and some early predictors that we're kind of
• 0:17
  discussing as far as the LRC and everything that is setting up
• 0:20
  there goes. If you are new to it, listening
• 0:23
  to Gary and I's weekly episodes. Gary has a patent pending
• 0:28
  program called the LRC that Lezak recurring cycle where Gary
• 0:33
  has seen this reoccurring weather pattern in each single
• 0:37
  year. So over the past year Gary and I
• 0:39
  have been discussing the weather pattern and what is happening
• 0:42
  each week within that weather pattern.
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  Well, right now that weather pattern is setting up.
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  So right now Gary is doing all of this analysis on what the
• 0:50
  weather pattern is showing and then how this weather pattern is
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  going to then take this prediction and flow throughout
• 0:56
  the rest of winter and then the rest of next year as well.
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  So we're in the midst of that setting up.
• 1:00
  So Gary kind of it breaks all of that down for us today and what
• 1:03
  we can kind of expect and some of his early predictor things
• 1:07
  that he's seen as well. And then what we can expect from
• 1:10
  him over the next few weeks as well.
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  Before we hop into this episode, if you're watching on YouTube,
• 1:14
  make sure that you are subscribed to our channel and
• 1:16
  that you like this episode. You are listening on any of our
• 1:18
  podcast platforms. Make sure that you're following
• 1:19
  the show and go take a second to rate and review it as well.
• 1:22
  Let's go ahead and hear from Gary Liszak.
• 1:28
  Welcome to the Cattle USA Daily podcast, your go to source for
• 1:32
  the latest livestock markets, industry insights and the update
• 1:35
  shaping agriculture today. I'm your host, Lauren Moylan, a
• 1:39
  passionate advocate for agriculture here to keep you
• 1:41
  informed and connected. Now let's dive into today's
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  episode. Gary, welcome back to the
• 1:55
  podcast. How are you?
• 1:58
  I am. Wow, how are you doing?
• 2:01
  I am doing great. We were both just talking about
• 2:03
  how crazy life is these days and how busy November is.
• 2:09
  I can't believe we are already over halfway through November.
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  I had someone say that the other day and I was like oh gosh calm
• 2:15
  down guys, calm down. It was just Halloween the other
• 2:19
  day. Like you can't already be
• 2:22
  halfway. Through November, slow down,
• 2:24
  stop and smell the roses, Lauren.
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  I know, I know, time is going by way too quickly these days, I
• 2:30
  tell you what. But yes, crazy over here, crazy
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  busy. We're about to leave for a big
• 2:36
  trip, but all great. It's all the great kind of busy,
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  right? I love it.
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  I love it. Yeah, yeah, that's that's
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  exciting. So have a good trip.
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  And weather wise, things are changing as well.
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  You know, mid November is a period of time when I would
• 2:50
  often be forced by my bosses at the TV stations to issue my
• 2:55
  winter forecast when I really just needed to wait.
• 2:59
  But it's sweeps. Sweeps means that's when ratings
• 3:03
  are counted most often, not anymore as strongly as it was
• 3:07
  back earlier in my career, but that's why we did it in mid
• 3:11
  November and it would always be the highest rated night.
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  All right, So for like 5 years in a row, the winter forecast
• 3:20
  when we positioned to write was the highest rated night for us.
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  So that's exciting. But we're not answering our
• 3:25
  winter forecast for two more weeks.
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  The week, first week of December will be when we issue our winter
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  forecast. So we'll do a preliminary
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  forecast of that right here on this podcast that week and maybe
• 3:38
  the full version, but still analyzing this weather pattern
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  that's setting up. It's it's interesting, Lauren,
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  have you noticed anything so far this season?
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  It's been a little dry here in Manhattan.
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  We had that early rain spell where we kind of got some
• 3:55
  moisture for a couple weeks, but we haven't really seen anything
• 3:59
  recently, which I know we talked about last week, some drought
• 4:02
  concern and all of those things. So definitely a little worried
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  about that. It has been abnormally warm here
• 4:09
  in Kansas recently as well. So curious to hear your thoughts
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  on that, on whether or not we have a cold winter coming, a hot
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  winter, a long winter, a short winter, all of those things as
• 4:23
  well. But it's been, it's been
• 4:25
  interesting to kind of sit back and observe.
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  Right, one thing we know for sure, winter is coming and if
• 4:32
  you are a student looking at the social media post from
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  meteorologists and scientists the last 2-3 weeks, you may have
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  seen this one term called sudden stratospheric warming.
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  The atmosphere of the stratosphere is showing signs
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  it's going to warm suddenly and cause an Arctic air mass to
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  develop. I wrote an article on LinkedIn
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  and just posted it on Facebook as well and it's on YouTube as
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  well. And I I think it's the exact
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  opposite of what they think. It isn't sudden stratospheric
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  warming. So another one of those concepts
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  that meteorologists and scientists are lying to you
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  about, I believe, OK, now I'm challenging my peers on this.
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  What happens is an Arctic air mass will form and it'll get
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  very cold. And it may happen in the next
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  two or three weeks. We'll see.
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  Some models have it, some don't. But a brutally cold air mass
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  forms near the surface, at the ground.
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  And when it gets very cold, like instead of 0°, it's -40° -, 50°
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  in Canada, and this cold air mass expands, the stratosphere
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  drops in response to that cold air forming.
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  So instead of calling it sudden stratospheric warming, it should
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  be called, I'm proposing sudden stratosphere lowering because
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  the atmosphere in the stratosphere, nothing happens
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  there. It is stable.
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  And so everything's happening below.
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  So anyway, my point is it is a overhyped thing that's going on.
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  For two or three weeks they've been threatening this is
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  happening as it turn brutally cold, but it just stays warm
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  over and over and over again and eventually it's going to turn
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  cold. So when we're looking at the
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  forecast for the winter, we look and see what has been happening
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  so far. And from October, November the
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  18th, it has been very wet over California, Nevada, Arizona,
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  extending up across Wyoming, Montana and North Dakota.
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  So that's the first sign that that area likely is going to be
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  near what we call an anchor through and have above average
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  precipitation and above average number of storm systems across
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  the dairy farms, the Corn Belt and wheat regions from South
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  Dakota, SE Wyoming, eastern half of Colorado, and then across
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  Minnesota, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Missouri, Kansas,
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  Oklahoma, Texas. That entire area has had drier
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  than average precipitation so far this season.
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  So there's a concern right now that could be a trend for the
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  entire winter and into next spring.
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  We still need a little more time.
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  So let's give it three more weeks and see what happens.
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  What happens in the next three weeks is still highly important.
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  Another thing to look at what is temperature wise, it has been
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  warmer than average over the entire nation with the exception
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  of around New York to the Mid-Atlantic states, down to
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  Florida where it's been slightly colder than average.
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  But from the Ohio Valley West to California and from North Dakota
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  down to South Texas, it has been above to much above average
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  temperatures. So that doesn't mean it's going
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  to be a very warm winter, but that's something to keep in
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  mind. That's what has been happening
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  for the 1st 3540 days, 45 days of this weather pattern that has
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  set up. So I'm concerned too, Lauren.
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  It looks like it could be, it could be dry and and problem for
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  the growing season ahead, but I haven't made that call yet.
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  There's hints of that right now. Yeah, definitely something that
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  a lot of farmers and ranchers are keeping their eye on right
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  now because, I mean, obviously, as you know, Gary, we've been
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  battling growing and shrinking and growing and shrinking
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  droughts here in the Midwest for a really long time.
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  Like this isn't anything new. That is why we have the cattle
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  market that we do right now. We had some drought hit a few
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  years back and a lot of people sold and liquidated and
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  different things like that because we just didn't have the
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  grass availability and we really haven't had.
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  We've been blessed this year here in Kansas.
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  We've had some time where we've been able to recuperate some of
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  that grassland and bring back some of that native land that
• 9:03
  and the grass to where it was 10 years ago.
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  But we've had a lot of areas that are still really struggling
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  with drought and they just have not caught a break.
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  And so I know the drought is definitely concerned and a lot
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  for a lot of us, we care about having a pretty wet winter
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  because having a wet winter means that we have moisture in
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  the ground when it comes to growing season, whether that be
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  for crops or whether it be for just our pasture land as we go
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  into the spring as well. So definitely a concern.
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  We're all keeping our eye. On the wet, winter is definitely
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  that would get some moisture into the soil to begin spring
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  and then the timing of the rain as soon as we get to the growing
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  season. And that's what we do with
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  Weather 2020. We can go week by week and
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  showcase which weeks are likely to be wet, which weeks are
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  likely to be dry, and we have that in our Weather. 2020
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  dashboard will be updated in about two weeks and we'll start
• 9:56
  looking into the growing season. But yeah, the winter moisture is
• 10:00
  going to be important to track. Right now there is some concerns
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  there, so we'll monitor it. Here in Golden, Co, it hasn't
• 10:09
  snowed yet. And so in Boulder, the latest
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  first snow that's been tracked by a friend of mine who does
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  readings there since 1990. So in the last 35 years, the
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  latest, first snow was November 17th.
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  So we've gone past that. This is now the latest snow
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  since 1990. And he looked back at the
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  records in the past and the people swear that some of those
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  late snows that were later than that, it snowed in October.
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  They just didn't accumulate much.
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  So they didn't record it. But so this is one of the latest
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  snows ever. The scariest have 10% of their
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  snowpack. So 10% of the snowpack, it's mid
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  November. Let's see what happens in about
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  two or three weeks. But if it continues and 50% or
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  less right now it's at 10%, that would mean Breckenridge, instead
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  of getting 350 inches of snow this winter, they'll get 150
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  inches or two hundreds of snow. They're still going to get snow
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  up there. It just happens.
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  It's not that hard to snow during the winter, even in dry
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  patterns. But that's a concern.
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  And that's a concern for fire season next year because that
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  means Colorado would be prone to big fires there.
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  I've been here for two years and there have been no fires pretty
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  much. But I don't want that.
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  That would be horrible. Yeah, definitely.
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  It's, I'm very curious to see in these next like 3 weeks, that
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  first week of December when we're able to talk about the
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  weather pattern and kind of what you've been seeing.
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  I'm very curious to see what we're kind of thinking for the
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  rest of the year because when we first started having these
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  discussions in early November, no, not early November, early
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  October when the weather pattern was setting up, we were wet here
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  in Kansas. We were having like pretty
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  consistent for a week and a half, almost two weeks, every
• 11:56
  single day we were having at least a little bit of rain, some
• 11:59
  drizzles, if not like it was looking pretty good as far as
• 12:03
  was concerned. But then these next few weeks
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  have been, Oh my gosh, just dry and then abnormally warm and all
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  of these things, which I mean, I'm not really complaining quite
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  yet about it being warm. Still.
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  I could do with like we can maybe move from highs in the 70s
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  to like highs in the 50s and 60s here in Kansas and I'd be
• 12:21
  content. But there have been so many
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  years where we have just skipped right from 80° to 20° with
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  nothing in between. So I'm trying to soak it out I
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  can and enjoy. So kidding.
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  Like. I can still walk the dogs
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  outside without having my heavy coat on.
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  I did Gary last week. I did get my heated vest out and
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  I'm wearing my heated vest over my sweatshirts in the morning
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  because it's like still in the 30s and 40s in the morning.
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  So I did get that out. But heavy coat yet?
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  Wait, wait, wait. You have a, You have what's
• 12:52
  called a heated vest. Oh yeah.
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  I've never heard of that. Game changer.
• 12:56
  Oh my gosh. Well, why does he do you have to
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  plug it in? No.
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  So, well, it has like a little, little plug in thing on the
• 13:02
  inside of it, but you just plug it into a portable charger.
• 13:06
  And so they come with portable chargers and you just recharge
• 13:09
  the portable charger and then it's got a little button right
• 13:11
  here and you just turn it on and then it's got like these wires
• 13:14
  throughout it that heat it. And so they've got heated vests,
• 13:17
  they've got heated jackets. My husband has heated socks for
• 13:20
  when he goes hunting. He says those are a game
• 13:23
  changer. They make like heated pants.
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  They make, yeah, they make heated everything these days,
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  which is. I like it.
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  Absolutely bonkers, but a heated vest I think is superior because
• 13:35
  I am one of those people that like I just want my torso to be
• 13:37
  warm. My arms, I'm typically pretty
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  good there. Like my arms are probably the
• 13:41
  first. Thing we need to wear gloves
• 13:42
  most of the. Time yeah.
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  So like and right now I'm just walking out with just a like
• 13:48
  just a crew neck sweatshirt on and then a heated vest and I am
• 13:53
  comfortable for hours and not having to shed and take on and
• 13:56
  off layers. So I think he did best or
• 13:59
  superior to heated jackets, but they're all really great.
• 14:02
  You definitely look into them. They're, well, I definitely
• 14:06
  didn't need that when I was at the Chiefs Broncos game, got
• 14:09
  tickets. Brett Veach is the general
• 14:11
  manager of the Chiefs and he came through on Thursday, said a
• 14:15
  couple people backed out and they're not going to Denver.
• 14:17
  Would I like the tickets? And I'm like, where are the
• 14:19
  seats? I actually asked them, they said
• 14:21
  they're my seats. They're like near the 50 yard
• 14:23
  line and I'm like, OK, can I get a park?
• 14:26
  Can I get a parking pass? I got a parking pass too.
• 14:29
  So anyway, so yeah, I went to the game.
• 14:31
  I was in enemy territory. It was crazy, crazy, crazy
• 14:35
  Bronco fans out there. Congratulations.
• 14:37
  It was very, very tough. My partner Andy is somewhat of a
• 14:41
  Broncos fan now. And so the we're house divided,
• 14:44
  I guess it's not that good. And he said when I got home, I'm
• 14:49
  so sorry to do, but it was a great game, don't you think?
• 14:52
  I go, no, it was not a great game.
• 14:54
  I mean, when you lose at the end, I'm sorry.
• 14:56
  It was not a great game. I mean, anyway, Chiefs are in
• 14:59
  trouble. The Chiefs are in trouble.
• 15:02
  But the weather was 72° in November.
• 15:06
  So, yeah, things things are about to change.
• 15:09
  It can't stay warm forever. So next week when we talk, we'll
• 15:13
  likely be talking about a cold air mass developing Thanksgiving
• 15:17
  week. So you have a good trip and
• 15:19
  we'll talk next week as we learn more, and then we'll be within
• 15:23
  about a week and a half of issuing that winter forecast.
• 15:26
  Absolutely, a very exciting time around here for sure.
• 15:30
  Well, Gary, as always, thank you for your time.
• 15:33
  Thank you for your insight to all of our listeners out there.
• 15:35
  If you want to hear more about anything Gary and I chatted
• 15:38
  about today, make sure you check out the links in the show notes
• 15:41
  down below so that you can check out all of those links to either
• 15:44
  Gary's platforms or the Weather 2020 website where we have an
• 15:47
  exclusive discount for you guys as Cattle USA listeners as well.
• 15:52
  Gary, thank you for your time to all of our listeners.
• 15:54
  We will see you all next time on another episode.
• 15:56
  Have a good one y'all.