Latest / Kenny For Real / The 2024 NBA Draft 1 Season In...
Transcript
- 0:00Speaker 1: Now the season's almost over, I think it is a
- 0:01Speaker 1: perfect time to talk about the twenty twenty four NBA Draft,
- 0:04Speaker 1: and someone that doesn't do a lot of college basketball
- 0:07Speaker 1: or draft stuff in general, I really rely on certain YouTubers,
- 0:10Speaker 1: rioters and NBA draft nerds to really get me locked
- 0:13Speaker 1: into a draft class. And before this class even a
- 0:15Speaker 1: step foot on the floor, most people looked at it
- 0:17Speaker 1: as being one of the weakest draft classes in recent history. Now,
- 0:20Speaker 1: whether or not that's true or not, it's not really relevant.
- 0:22Speaker 1: I think we need a little bit more samplicized before
- 0:24Speaker 1: we get to there. But I can say just based
- 0:27Speaker 1: on these sixty to seventy games we've seen from these rookies,
- 0:29Speaker 1: there's some really interesting and intriguing young players, and I
- 0:32Speaker 1: want to talk about them. But before we do that,
- 0:33Speaker 1: let's hear it word from our sponsor. This video is
- 0:35Speaker 1: brought to by Sea Geek. Hit the link of the
- 0:36Speaker 1: description use code KFR ten for ten percent off your
- 0:40Speaker 1: purchase of tickets. Seegee take tickets from all over the
- 0:42Speaker 1: Internet and put them in one central location for you.
- 0:44Speaker 1: Those tickets can be from sporting events, it could be
- 0:47Speaker 1: from comedy, it could be for concerts, festivals. If you
- 0:50Speaker 1: need tickets, go check on seageek. They probably got it. Now.
- 0:53Speaker 1: With the tickets ticket from all over in and put
- 0:54Speaker 1: them in one location, it makes buying the tickets really
- 0:57Speaker 1: really simple. Let's say I want to go to open
- 0:58Speaker 1: a day for the Chicago White Side going against the Angels.
- 1:01Speaker 1: You pick how many tickets you want. In this case,
- 1:02Speaker 1: I'm gonna go with two. Then you're gonna see a
- 1:04Speaker 1: picture of the venue. I like to sort by deal score.
- 1:07Speaker 1: These are the best deals in the house, one through ten.
- 1:10Speaker 1: This one is a ten out of ten. Amazing deal.
- 1:13Speaker 1: Get to watch my favorite baseball team lose for just
- 1:16Speaker 1: twenty dollars. But it's about the experience, you know. It
- 1:18Speaker 1: really is just as simple. With a couple more clicks,
- 1:20Speaker 1: I could have had the tickets. Now I'm not going
- 1:21Speaker 1: to that game, but trust I will be going to
- 1:23Speaker 1: see my White Sox for sure. In every event that
- 1:26Speaker 1: I've been to, sport, event or concert, I have bought
- 1:29Speaker 1: my tickets to see geek Man. Shout out to sea
- 1:31Speaker 1: Geek's sponsoring another video that is cold KFR ten for
- 1:35Speaker 1: ten percent off your purchase of tickets. Now, one thing
- 1:37Speaker 1: I can agree with when people talk about it being
- 1:39Speaker 1: one of the weakest draft classes is that there's nobody
- 1:42Speaker 1: that has showed me in these sixty games that one
- 1:44Speaker 1: hundred percent they will be a future All Star. Right,
- 1:47Speaker 1: there's some guys I'm like, yeah, he could do it,
- 1:49Speaker 1: he might do it, but I'm talking about with one
- 1:51Speaker 1: hundred percent certainty, like you think about previous draft class.
- 1:54Speaker 1: Of course, Victor wimen Yamo, you saw that immediately the
- 1:57Speaker 1: moment he stepped on the NBA floor, Plo, benk Hero
- 2:00Speaker 1: going back, like Kay Cunningham, Evan Mobley, Anthony Edwards. I'm
- 2:03Speaker 1: just looking through these draft classes, John Moran, Jion Williamson.
- 2:06Speaker 1: Once those dudes touched the floor, and even before that
- 2:09Speaker 1: you had Luca Dantas and Trey Young. Once those dudes
- 2:11Speaker 1: touched the floor, you immediately looked at it and said, hey,
- 2:14Speaker 1: I think I can build my team around this dude,
- 2:16Speaker 1: and that we haven't seen that yet for the twenty
- 2:18Speaker 1: twenty four class. Maybe it ends up happening, maybe it doesn't. Anyway,
- 2:21Speaker 1: when I'm looking at young talent like rookies, where we're
- 2:24Speaker 1: talking about a sixty seventy game sample size, I really
- 2:27Speaker 1: don't care about the counting stats. I don't care about
- 2:29Speaker 1: the points, rebounds, assists to shooting splits. Because I'm watching
- 2:32Speaker 1: these young players, I'm looking for flashes. I'm looking for flashes. Now.
- 2:36Speaker 1: The reality is, every time you see a flash, it
- 2:38Speaker 1: doesn't mean that that player is going to actualize that potential.
- 2:40Speaker 1: It doesn't mean because this player looked good in the
- 2:42Speaker 1: pick and roll on one possession that one day he'll
- 2:43Speaker 1: turn into to Lucadntis to Trey Young. But I do
- 2:46Speaker 1: really look for the flashes rather the jesty overall stats
- 2:50Speaker 1: because reminder, a lot of these dudes are coming in
- 2:52Speaker 1: fresh out of college. A lot of these dudes have
- 2:54Speaker 1: one year of college experience, or some dudes in this
- 2:56Speaker 1: draft class and zero years of college experience. To stay up,
- 2:58Speaker 1: went to go play with the G League, which is
- 3:00Speaker 1: a crazy thing, and they got canceled. So it's hard
- 3:02Speaker 1: for me to be like, oh man, this player is
- 3:05Speaker 1: not good or cannot be good because in his rookie
- 3:07Speaker 1: season he's shot below this from the field, or he's
- 3:10Speaker 1: efficient here. Because we're really just looking at the flashes,
- 3:14Speaker 1: and then you look at those flashes, you try to
- 3:15Speaker 1: convince yourself, hey, is this something I can see this
- 3:17Speaker 1: player doing a lot long term, and then that's where
- 3:21Speaker 1: it gets really difficult, and I'm actually pretty bad at that.
- 3:23Speaker 1: But either way, I want to talk about these dudes.
- 3:25Speaker 1: I'm gonna start off in Washington, because the Washington will
- 3:28Speaker 1: just have four rookies that are really intriguing. I'm gonna
- 3:30Speaker 1: start off with the three that they draft themselves. Shout
- 3:33Speaker 1: out to A. J. Johnson, who's been doing some pretty
- 3:34Speaker 1: cool stuff over the last couple of days or last
- 3:36Speaker 1: couple of games. But I really want to talk about
- 3:38Speaker 1: their own draft picks because again, Flashes Flashes Flashes. My
- 3:43Speaker 1: favorite of their three rookies, and that's between Alex sar
- 3:46Speaker 1: Kyshawn George and Bud Carrington is George. It's George. George
- 3:50Speaker 1: is sitting there, and I just feel like most people
- 3:52Speaker 1: have not realized it because the Washington Witars and themselves
- 3:54Speaker 1: don't have a lot of structure. They'll lose on any
- 3:57Speaker 1: given at night by forty plus points. But like, I
- 4:00Speaker 1: really really like Keithshan George is a prospect. I think
- 4:02Speaker 1: there are a lot of good defensive upside guys in
- 4:05Speaker 1: this twenty twenty four draft class. Where you look at
- 4:07Speaker 1: Resa Cha Castle Star Buzealis. I feel like Eve's Missy.
- 4:12Speaker 1: I feel like I'm forgetting some dudes a Ryan Dunn. Obviously,
- 4:15Speaker 1: Keithshan George is towards not at the top, but towards
- 4:18Speaker 1: the top end of Like when I look at Keishan
- 4:21Speaker 1: George's defender as projecting of how good of a defender
- 4:24Speaker 1: he can be. And the reason I say that is
- 4:25Speaker 1: because I think he's got really good instincts on both
- 4:28Speaker 1: sides of the ball. And when you have that instinct
- 4:30Speaker 1: and that level of effort, I just feel like that's
- 4:33Speaker 1: just such a good match. We've seen recently that he's
- 4:36Speaker 1: been involved as a ball handler a lot more. And
- 4:39Speaker 1: I guess he grew up as a point guard as
- 4:41Speaker 1: I was just doing a little bit of research on him.
- 4:43Speaker 1: He grew up and then hit a growth spur. So
- 4:44Speaker 1: I see times or he is in the pick and
- 4:46Speaker 1: roll and he's making really good decision after really good decision,
- 4:49Speaker 1: and I like that. I've seen him guard guards, I've
- 4:52Speaker 1: seen him guard bigger wings, I've seen him do a
- 4:54Speaker 1: lot of different things. Is showcasing some of that potential versatility,
- 4:58Speaker 1: and I like that. If you think of about Alex
- 5:00Speaker 1: Sar and his defense of ceiling because I think I've
- 5:03Speaker 1: seen Alex Sar switch on to guards and hold his own.
- 5:05Speaker 1: I've seen him play really good drop coverage and hold
- 5:07Speaker 1: his own. So like, when you think about the upside
- 5:09Speaker 1: defensively of that team between Sar George Blau, again, depending
- 5:14Speaker 1: on what this pick looks like for them in twenty
- 5:16Speaker 1: twenty five, they have a nice young collection of talent.
- 5:19Speaker 1: Now I look at George, I don't know if that
- 5:21Speaker 1: upside is to potentially an All Star or something along
- 5:24Speaker 1: those lines. But when you think about a team having
- 5:27Speaker 1: three first round picks, you feel like one or two
- 5:30Speaker 1: of those guys may not pan out to be in
- 5:32Speaker 1: anything at the NBA level. And I feel good with saying,
- 5:35Speaker 1: through the first sixty something games of these young guys careers,
- 5:39Speaker 1: that all three of them project to be not just
- 5:42Speaker 1: NBA players, but like real rotational players for the foreseeable future.
- 5:45Speaker 1: And that's really good. Staying with the Wizards, Alex Sar
- 5:48Speaker 1: as of late, in his last ten games, he's averaging
- 5:50Speaker 1: nineteen points per game. And then again, I don't really
- 5:53Speaker 1: think about the numbers and stuff, but this is for
- 5:55Speaker 1: the people that care about the numbers. He's shooting forty
- 5:57Speaker 1: five percent from the field thirty seven percent for three
- 6:00Speaker 1: and one thing that I've noticed a lot that he's
- 6:02Speaker 1: been doing it. Let me see if I can find
- 6:03Speaker 1: a clip of it. He's been getting rebounds and he's
- 6:06Speaker 1: been coast to coasting it. He's been coast to coasting it.
- 6:08Speaker 1: And so of these times, I think it's handled for
- 6:11Speaker 1: somebody his size and not projected to be like a
- 6:13Speaker 1: you know sometimes we see these big ass guards. You know,
- 6:15Speaker 1: he's not projected to do anything like that. For him
- 6:17Speaker 1: to have at tide of a handle as he does
- 6:19Speaker 1: sometimes it is really impressive stuff. I'mna see if I can
- 6:22Speaker 1: find which game was that what I watch him recently
- 6:24Speaker 1: when they got the ass dogged. It's kind of the
- 6:27Speaker 1: thing for it, right U was that the I'm gonna
- 6:29Speaker 1: find I'm gonna find this clip pod on I found
- 6:31Speaker 1: the clip. I'm a preference by saying it's not as
- 6:34Speaker 1: cool as I hyped it up to be now that
- 6:35Speaker 1: I've watched it again, But damn it, when I was
- 6:38Speaker 1: watching this in real time, I was pretty impressed with
- 6:41Speaker 1: this play window Carter. He gets there to get the block,
- 6:44Speaker 1: he gets the ball and he's trying to go coax
- 6:46Speaker 1: to coast. You can pause it right here and say, hey, hey,
- 6:48Speaker 1: big fella, maybe we shouldn't be doing this at this
- 6:51Speaker 1: moment of time. But watch this, Cory, y'all go over
- 6:53Speaker 1: the seat where youre going, Cory Joe. They reviewed it
- 6:57Speaker 1: and it went off his knee, so that was a turnover.
- 6:59Speaker 1: But just talking about flashes, and every time I watched
- 7:04Speaker 1: the Wizards earlier in the season, I just kept thinking
- 7:06Speaker 1: to myself, if this guy ever got to the point
- 7:09Speaker 1: where he was just an average NBA offensive player, then
- 7:12Speaker 1: that's a really good overall NBA player. And as we've
- 7:16Speaker 1: seen over the last couple of weeks or so, that
- 7:18Speaker 1: offense is starting to turn the corner a little bit.
- 7:21Speaker 1: Zachary Rishild say, might be again, brother, I'm so sorry,
- 7:24Speaker 1: I'm simp pronouncing that wrong. Might be the least talked
- 7:26Speaker 1: about first overall picking the history of the sport. And
- 7:29Speaker 1: that's okay, that's okay. He's been progressively getting better and
- 7:33Speaker 1: better and better, and just last night he had his
- 7:34Speaker 1: career high night, which is thirty six points. One thing
- 7:37Speaker 1: about Reese, I say sorry, coming into this was like,
- 7:42Speaker 1: hey man, last year when he was overseas he shot
- 7:45Speaker 1: really well from three, but the three years before that
- 7:48Speaker 1: he was pretty dreadful. So the question was was his
- 7:51Speaker 1: shooting in that one year the outlier or can he
- 7:55Speaker 1: really build on that shooting So far the season, we're
- 7:58Speaker 1: talking about thirty five percent, but the shot has looked
- 8:00Speaker 1: better and better throughout the year. I really do love like,
- 8:03Speaker 1: out of all different places that he could have ended
- 8:05Speaker 1: up him playing alongside Trey Young. I think it's so
- 8:08Speaker 1: much of a blessing because you have an offensive engine
- 8:11Speaker 1: in Trey who can any given night give you a
- 8:13Speaker 1: nineteen and nineteen game. He did that last night. By
- 8:15Speaker 1: the way, nineteen and nineteen don't sleep on trade. And
- 8:17Speaker 1: because you have somebody that is so elite with the ball,
- 8:21Speaker 1: it gives you so many opportunities. Now, teams are not
- 8:24Speaker 1: guarding Resache. At matter of fact, let me do this
- 8:27Speaker 1: one more time. Re zahe is what basketball Riezache. They're
- 8:32Speaker 1: not guarding Riza se is if he's Kevin Durant. He
- 8:36Speaker 1: gets a lot of lot of open looks. But one
- 8:38Speaker 1: thing I like about him is that he's not content
- 8:41Speaker 1: with just sitting at the corner and just waiting for
- 8:44Speaker 1: his open looks to end up coming to him. I
- 8:46Speaker 1: think he plays very well off the ball, where he's
- 8:48Speaker 1: doing backdoor cuts, he's setting screens, he's doing a lot
- 8:51Speaker 1: of the smaller things that an overall stat line won't
- 8:54Speaker 1: pick up. And now that the jump shooting is starting
- 8:57Speaker 1: to catch up to that again, really good NBA player.
- 9:00Speaker 1: I'm not gonna talk about his bizealous because I feel
- 9:01Speaker 1: like that's all I've done over the last month. But
- 9:03Speaker 1: he's been really, really good, so he's been certain into
- 9:05Speaker 1: the starting lineup. My only complaint is that the man
- 9:08Speaker 1: that is sixty nine sixteen don't grab enough rebounds for
- 9:10Speaker 1: my liking. I feel like I'm sounded like my dad
- 9:13Speaker 1: because that's something my dad would say about somebody his size.
- 9:16Speaker 1: But yeah, he's just don't rebound the ball well. He
- 9:18Speaker 1: has ebbs and flows with his jump shooting. But when
- 9:19Speaker 1: the jump shooting is going and he can go coast
- 9:21Speaker 1: to coast as well and finish a lib and do
- 9:23Speaker 1: all of the stuff around the rim, he just opens
- 9:25Speaker 1: up the game, not just for him but for the
- 9:27Speaker 1: team in general. Next, let's go to the probable rookie
- 9:29Speaker 1: of the year. Now, one thing about Steph Castle is
- 9:32Speaker 1: that because we've had the windy injury and everything. His
- 9:35Speaker 1: workload has just got so much, so much larger. So
- 9:38Speaker 1: like on the night to night basis, some of the
- 9:40Speaker 1: stuff does not look good on the stat sheet, but
- 9:42Speaker 1: again we're looking for these flashes. And one of the
- 9:44Speaker 1: things coming into the draft was people talked about how
- 9:46Speaker 1: much of a dog he was defensively, and I've done
- 9:49Speaker 1: a few shoots with Steph Castle. That's been my boy.
- 9:51Speaker 1: The dude is just a big ass guard, right, and
- 9:54Speaker 1: sometimes you see him get switched on to bigger players.
- 9:58Speaker 1: And again we talk about a rooie, so I don't
- 9:59Speaker 1: want to act he turned into Draymond Green as an
- 10:01Speaker 1: undersized defender, but you see, like, oh my god, you know,
- 10:05Speaker 1: you put him into some actions he can hold his
- 10:07Speaker 1: own against so and so who's sixt' seven, you know,
- 10:10Speaker 1: and those are the type of things that's really interesting.
- 10:11Speaker 1: I don't know what this overall long term workload looks
- 10:14Speaker 1: like alonside the Aaron Fox, a Victor Wibbin Yama. But
- 10:18Speaker 1: it's been a few games where like Steph Castle as
- 10:20Speaker 1: a rookie went individually on like an eight to oh
- 10:23Speaker 1: run and a spark in the game, and some of
- 10:24Speaker 1: that has jump shoot. Some of that is getting to
- 10:26Speaker 1: the basket, and you're like, yeah, I understand it, Donovan Klingen.
- 10:30Speaker 1: I've been wanting Donovan Klingen to really get unleashed. Unfortunately
- 10:35Speaker 1: we only get bits and pieces of that. But you
- 10:38Speaker 1: already see what type of big man defender he could
- 10:41Speaker 1: potentially be. And somebody say, again, as somebody that doesn't
- 10:44Speaker 1: really look at the stats, his are pretty glam and
- 10:47Speaker 1: you feel it when you're watching the game. And that's
- 10:49Speaker 1: why I'm just gonna use these stats to back up
- 10:50Speaker 1: when I'm saying opponents affect the field goal percentage is
- 10:52Speaker 1: down about three percent when he is on the floor,
- 10:55Speaker 1: which is insane. Seven to two big fella, and when
- 10:57Speaker 1: you have a seven two big fella, that's herolded As
- 10:59Speaker 1: a defensive orient to guy. One thing you asked yourself
- 11:01Speaker 1: is like, what type of defense are we talking? Are
- 11:03Speaker 1: we doing some dry coverage? Are we doing this? Are
- 11:04Speaker 1: we doing that? And what does that look like for
- 11:06Speaker 1: the opposing team? Teams don't go to the rim with
- 11:10Speaker 1: Donovan Klingen is out there. This right here, this minus
- 11:13Speaker 1: four point five. I want to put this perspective. This
- 11:15Speaker 1: is team's opponents of shooting frequency. I want to put
- 11:18Speaker 1: this into perspective because teams are shooting way more mid
- 11:20Speaker 1: ranges when don VD Clinking is on the floor. Right
- 11:22Speaker 1: this seventeen eighteen season is Rudy Gobert's first defensive player
- 11:26Speaker 1: of the Year. One of the greatest things about Rudy
- 11:29Speaker 1: Gobert as a defender is his rim deterrence. And we're
- 11:32Speaker 1: talking about a rookie and Donovan Klingen has numbers that
- 11:36Speaker 1: is somewhat similar a percentage point off of what the
- 11:39Speaker 1: first DPO wife of Rudy Gobert looks like. Now eventually
- 11:42Speaker 1: DPO wif Rudy Gobert gets up to eight percent, which
- 11:44Speaker 1: is fucking disgusted, Like it's crazy that he deterred people
- 11:48Speaker 1: from going to the rim that much. But this is
- 11:50Speaker 1: what I'm talking about with Donovan Klingen. That's why I
- 11:52Speaker 1: want him to be unleashed a little bit more. But
- 11:55Speaker 1: they doing the things over there in Portland. I think
- 11:58Speaker 1: Ron Holland has found his role pretty early on this
- 12:00Speaker 1: high energy guy. Get into it with anybody here. We
- 12:02Speaker 1: just saw a really big scuffle just yesterday and I
- 12:05Speaker 1: did find it interesting that the one game against the
- 12:06Speaker 1: Pelicans or kay Cunninghill was a lay scratch. We had
- 12:09Speaker 1: a twenty six five and five game from him, and
- 12:12Speaker 1: some of that was just him being this runner, this runner,
- 12:17Speaker 1: this running and transition and what we've seen over the
- 12:20Speaker 1: last couple of years, whether it be the Thompson twins
- 12:22Speaker 1: and so on and so forth, some guys that might
- 12:24Speaker 1: not be insane in the half court can increase their
- 12:27Speaker 1: offensive value just by being a super great fast break player.
- 12:31Speaker 1: And Ron Holland has found that role already. In the
- 12:33Speaker 1: hopes is of course that the jump shooting comes around
- 12:35Speaker 1: with it. You have some rookies that I have not
- 12:37Speaker 1: been able to watch nearly is enough, Like kl Philapowski's
- 12:40Speaker 1: overall stats look amazing. I have not watched a full
- 12:43Speaker 1: Utah Jazz game in the year of twenty twenty five,
- 12:47Speaker 1: maybe even further back than that, Like, I have not
- 12:50Speaker 1: been locked in on them at all. So my fault
- 12:52Speaker 1: of Jazz fans. Maybe you got some of the steals,
- 12:55Speaker 1: because I know Isaiah Cole is doing some cool stuff
- 12:57Speaker 1: as well, but I can't even give an opinion on that.
- 12:59Speaker 1: You do have your rookie is that you know are
- 13:01Speaker 1: not getting enough time just yet to have a full
- 13:03Speaker 1: evaluation all like Rob Dillingham was a part of the
- 13:05Speaker 1: rotation when they were dealing with a bunch of injuries,
- 13:07Speaker 1: but since then he's not getting a ton of play.
- 13:10Speaker 1: Now that the Hornets are bad have they've been bad
- 13:13Speaker 1: for a long time, We're starting to see Tajohn Salon
- 13:16Speaker 1: jump up a little bit in the rotation, so that's interesting.
- 13:19Speaker 1: Reached Shepherd is another one of these guys. Obviously Nicola
- 13:21Speaker 1: Topitch hasn't been able to play, and guys like Dev
- 13:24Speaker 1: Carter and so on. And I didn't even mentioned like
- 13:26Speaker 1: Jery McCain, who was probably gonna run away or Rookie
- 13:30Speaker 1: of the Year if he was able to stay healthy.
- 13:32Speaker 1: I want to say my apologies to these rookies who
- 13:34Speaker 1: I know have been hooping, but I don't have an
- 13:35Speaker 1: opinion on him just yet. Austin Edwards. I think I
- 13:38Speaker 1: mentioned Cayle Filipowski already, Jacobe Walter, Dean Bona, Eves Missi,
- 13:44Speaker 1: who at one point was the leader for Rookie of
- 13:47Speaker 1: the Year. I did a whole little segment on my
- 13:48Speaker 1: podcast on Quentin Post, so I don't want to go
- 13:50Speaker 1: too deep into that, but Quentin Posts, I really love
- 13:52Speaker 1: what I've seen from Khalel War and flashes. One of
- 13:55Speaker 1: the thing that I've been asking for for a long
- 13:57Speaker 1: time is to have another big fellow alongside Bam on
- 13:59Speaker 1: a Bayo, because Dobam Metabio is one of the most
- 14:01Speaker 1: versatile defenders in basketball. He's just really undersized to play
- 14:05Speaker 1: the five full time. And we, finally, after years of
- 14:07Speaker 1: me asking for this, have a center alongside Bam that
- 14:11Speaker 1: you project to be a really good front cord for
- 14:13Speaker 1: the foreseeable future. And I still haven't figured out what
- 14:15Speaker 1: to think about Zach Edy. I still don't know. I
- 14:18Speaker 1: still don't know. Shout out to Jalen Wales, who you
- 14:20Speaker 1: know is starting to cool off as a shooter over
- 14:23Speaker 1: the last couple months or so. But like coming onto
- 14:25Speaker 1: the scene as a second round pick and wreaking that
- 14:28Speaker 1: much havoc defensively was pretty dope. I mean, he did
- 14:31Speaker 1: that whole face guard Steph Curry thing a few months
- 14:33Speaker 1: back and held Steph Curry to what's zero points. I
- 14:35Speaker 1: want to say that I can't get to everybody. Let
- 14:37Speaker 1: me know what you think about this year's draft class man. Underrated, overrated,
- 14:40Speaker 1: We'll see, I guess