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Is Josh Hines-Allen an ELITE Edge Rusher?! · Duval Daily: A Jacksonville Jaguars Podcast

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  [SPEAKER_00]: Jacksonville Jack Wars fans welcome in to do wall daily presented by jing Jack dot com and fueled by brass tax coffee best coffee in town check them out So right now Wednesday June 24th We are taking a look at Josh Heinz Allen.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: I put together a little bit of a statistical model over the last four years for Josh Heinz Allen
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  [SPEAKER_00]: to project based on the numbers, what we can expect from him in 2026, and I'll also have, you know, kind of my spin on what I expect from him.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: The average numbers obviously are just the numbers, but then also like how I think his current setting and environment will
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  [SPEAKER_00]: negatively or positively impact his numbers in 20, 20, six.
• 0:47
  [SPEAKER_00]: A lot of people like to talk about Josh Hines Allen's numbers.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: He is the Jaguars all-time leading sack leader, but he's also a player who consistently kind of gets criticized by fans who are only looking at sack numbers and sack totals and they want more.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: But I think when you look at the numbers here, which Josh Hines Allen, what he's done has been just really impressive for the Jaguars.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: has been with the Jaguar since 2019.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: And the last four years of his career have been just excellent.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: He's 28 years old now and going into, I mean, he's right in the prime of his career.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: I expect him to continue to play at a high level and really,
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  [SPEAKER_00]: Maybe you have the couple of the best students of his career coming up here.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: I think coming off of what he did last year.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: So again, excited to get into it.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: Really appreciate y'all being here.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: If you enjoy the content, please like, subscribe, you can also hit that high button.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: And I'll just check out jingjag.com, pick up some new Duval gear.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: So Josh Heinz Allen, just looking at the numbers over the last four years, he's averaged 533 past rush snaps per season.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: So we're taking that combined with his pressures per season.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: which he has 80 pressures per season over the last four years, right around 80.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: 80, a lot of people have hate on the pressures.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: Which, look, if you don't wanna pay attention to pressures, I can't change your mind on that.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: I do think pressures are indicative of success.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: I think pressures are indicative of forcing your opponent into bad situations.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: Would you like to see
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  [SPEAKER_00]: a higher pressure to sacrate for Josh Heinz Allen.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: Yes, yes, he would.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: Would you like to see just a little bit more finish?
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  [SPEAKER_00]: Would he like to see just a little bit more finishing?
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  [SPEAKER_00]: In 2026, yes, absolutely he would.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: But having said that, he is averaging a top five finish among edge pressures in the NFL on a yearly basis with 80 pressures per season.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: He is averaging over this four-year stretch, just over 10 SACS per season.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: So we'll put it in about 10 right there.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: Double digits, 40.5 total SACS during that time frame.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: That is the ninth most in the NFL by any player, any active player.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: So even though he's finishing as a top five Russia from a pressure standpoint per year,
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  [SPEAKER_00]: not top five, but it's still top 10.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: It is still top 10.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: And now, is this season where he had 17 and a half sacks doing some heavy lifting there?
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  [SPEAKER_00]: Yes, but not that much, have you?
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  [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, like, he's still getting sacks every single year.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: Again, would you like to be a little bit more consistent?
• 3:53
  [SPEAKER_00]: Would you like to, you know, I think it's for the fans that are detractors, because I do want to present, you know, both sides of the story here.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: Outside of the 17 and a half game, or 17 and a half sex season, over the last four years, you're talking about a season with seven and two seasons with eight sacks.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: So you're averaging like seven and a half sacks per year, something like that.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: That's not a leap, it's not.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: Um, there are certainly factors that contribute to the lack of sacks in my opinion as compared to pressures.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: Some of that is him just not finishing at the quarterback as frequently as you like.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: And it's literally, it's not like this massive golf in between his ability to get the quarterback to the ground and like the best adversaries and football, it's literally a couple plays per season that make the difference.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: two, three, four plays per season.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: That make the difference in perception.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: But he's somebody who affects the quarterback a lot.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: But there's no question about that.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: And just again, looking at the raw numbers, 80 pressures per season, top five among ad pressures in the NFL over that stretch, 10 sacs per season.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: That's ninth most in the NFL.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: During that stretch.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: So you can't take away the 17 and a half game season either.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: Right?
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  [SPEAKER_00]: That did happen.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: So he's averaging 10s per year over the last four years.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: And then you talk about the 33 stops per year that he has a stop as as, you know, PFF puts it is a tackle that constitutes a failure for the offense.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: So a play that is a failure for the offense.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: is the result of a defensive stop, a tackle that constitutes a failure for the offense.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: So if it's third and four and you get a tackle for three yards, that is a stop.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: If you get a sack, that is a stop.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: If you get a tackle for loss or a tackle of the line of scrimmage, that is a stop.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: These are the types of plays that are stops.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: Josh Heinz Allen has average 33 stops per year.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: That again is top five among edge rushers in the NFL,
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  [SPEAKER_00]: So you've got a top, team guy in the hole in FL and Sacks.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: You have top five impressionors.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: You have top five and stops.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: And the stops is among adressors.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: There's some linebackers, crazy amount of stuff, like off-ball linebackers, but,
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  [SPEAKER_00]: Then you look at his true past rush win rate, six best among adressors last year.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: He's also forced seven forced fumbles and eight passes defended during this four-year run.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: So those numbers are damn good.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: Are they elite?
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  [SPEAKER_00]: It's fair to bathe.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: I think that as a complete adressor, Josh Heinz Allen is elite.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: a complete adductor.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: He does everything at a very, very high level.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: Is he an elite pass rusher or sack artist however you want to put it?
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  [SPEAKER_00]: I think that that's where you can say that he's not or that he hasn't consistently been.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: I think the context of that certainly
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  [SPEAKER_00]: The Jack's defense surrounding him has been less than desirable.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: There's been some really bad stretches of offensive play as well.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: When you're playing from behind, it's difficult to really heat up against the quarterback.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: When you have a lead, it's much easier to heat up against the quarterback.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: I think you saw that down the stretch last year, with Josh Heinz Allen.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: I really do, you know, down the stretch, the jack's defense started cooking about midway through the year, and that's when Josh Hines Allen started picking up sacks at a much higher rate.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: And I think a lot of that had to do with coverage.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: I think a lot of that had to do with kind of him getting the monkey off his back with the jack-worth's franchise
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  [SPEAKER_00]: So, the numbers would tell you about 80 pressures this year, about 10 sacs, about 33 stops.
• 8:47
  [SPEAKER_00]: That's what you could probably expect from Josh Hines on this upcoming year.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: I think contextually, I put my projection just a little bit higher than that.
• 8:57
  [SPEAKER_00]: I haven't had 96 to 100 pressures because even though we have this four-year average, he did have more pressures last year than he's ever had and he had more pass rush reps last year than he's ever had.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: I think that this defense is going to be willing to put him on the field as much as they possibly can and then he can't manipulate.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: So I've got him at like 95 to 100 pressures.
• 9:32
  [SPEAKER_00]: I've got him at the range of 11 to 14 sacks.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: I'm putting him at 12.
• 9:39
  [SPEAKER_00]: Again, if he can have another season where he's able to get the quarterback on the ground, the way he did in 2023, consistently, then I'll start to think that that is the norm.
• 9:57
  [SPEAKER_00]: But there's just been a couple of missed opportunities here and there where it feels like he really let one slip, let one get away from him.
• 10:06
  [SPEAKER_00]: I'm gonna put 30 run stops here, projection wise.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: I think they're gonna be,
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  [SPEAKER_00]: I think teams are going to try to pass the ball a little bit more.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: Against the jackwards this year, and I think they're going to have to.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: The jackwards have an elite run defense.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: Josh Hines Allen is part of that.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: He's one of the best run defending edge defenders in the league.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: So I was straight up on Walker, put Devon Hamilton, your linebackers, the rest of the crew.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, they're just a really good run defense.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: I'm going to go with two pass breakups and two forced fumbles.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: When it comes to those, I just think he's going to get more opportunities throughout this year to hunt.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: and he's gonna come up with some big numbers.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: So that's why I'm at with Josh Hinds Allen.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: Elite overall edge defender.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: One of the very best in the league, I don't think they're a five-better.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: Not yet a consistently elite sack artist.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: But an elite all around player, the one area he can improve is just getting the quarterback on the ground, more consistently.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: And it's not to say he hasn't done it at a high level.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: If you have an edge defender who's averaging 10 sacks per year, you're pretty darn happy, right?
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  [SPEAKER_00]: But could it be more?
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  [SPEAKER_00]: Could he elevate himself to be a Hall of Fame caliber player over the next few years?
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  [SPEAKER_00]: I think he could.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: I think that is within him.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: So.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: I'm excited to see what he can do here as an individual.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: And again, I think, contextually with the Jaguar's abilities stop the run, you're forcing teams into more passing situations.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: You're forcing teams to abandon the run.
• 11:52
  [SPEAKER_00]: then you now have Travis Hunter playing corner as well.
• 11:55
  [SPEAKER_00]: You have a healthy tray of homewalker.
• 11:56
  [SPEAKER_00]: You have a healthy aircraft instead.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: You have anything a camp in ELA who really knows how to mix up defensive fronts and and confuse the offensive opponent.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: The quarterback, the pass protection.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: I think it's going to be a great year for Josh Hines Allen.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: I think he could easily eclipse my projections here.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: but we gotta see it a little bit more consistently.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: We absolutely do.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: I really appreciate y'all tuning in if you enjoy the content, please like and subscribe.
• 12:27
  [SPEAKER_00]: And I'll say that high button, y'all have great one.