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Mac & Bone Show - Sam Brucchaus Interview · Mac & Bone Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Let's talk some football with Sam Bruckhaus from Sumer Sports.
• 0:03
  Speaker 1: Just an absolutely amazing sports stats, advanced stats site. It
• 0:09
  Speaker 1: is a tremendous resource. And Sam joins us here on
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: the Mac and Bone Show. Hey, Sam, what's happening, man?
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: How you doing?
• 0:15
  Speaker 2: Doing well. How are y'all? We're doing all right.
• 0:19
  Speaker 3: We're healing, Sam, in the process.
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: Sam, what did you think of that game? We were
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: saying we kind of thought in our growth under Canales
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: and company, we'd like to think we're past games like that,
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: but clearly we're not. What did you think about that?
• 0:35
  Speaker 2: Yeah. Number one, I think you got out of hand
• 0:39
  Speaker 2: and I think there's an interesting element when you look
• 0:42
  Speaker 2: at the most predictive metrics to predict the rest of
• 0:47
  Speaker 2: the season for teams. You always want to look at
• 0:51
  Speaker 2: point differential rather than stuff like when loss record and
• 0:55
  Speaker 2: even better, you want to look at like advanced stats, differentials,
• 0:58
  Speaker 2: like expected points added, which is basically putting all types
• 1:03
  Speaker 2: of yards in context. This is now two games that
• 1:07
  Speaker 2: the Panthers have let basically spiral completely out of control,
• 1:11
  Speaker 2: especially from the defensive perspective. And we knew this was
• 1:15
  Speaker 2: going to be a young defense. We thought that with
• 1:17
  Speaker 2: another year of growth after last year, that it could
• 1:20
  Speaker 2: potentially look substantially better. But with this and the Bears
• 1:25
  Speaker 2: game giving up 40 plus points, or in the Bears case,
• 1:28
  Speaker 2: 60 plus points, it just begs the question of how
• 1:32
  Speaker 2: mature this defense is right now. And so I think
• 1:36
  Speaker 2: really from a, a analytical perspective, when we're trying to
• 1:40
  Speaker 2: figure out the strength of the Panthers, you have to
• 1:45
  Speaker 2: think about these two basically blow out games and what
• 1:49
  Speaker 2: they mean, especially given that one came against what seems
• 1:53
  Speaker 2: to be a very functional offense. And the other one
• 1:56
  Speaker 2: came against what seems to be a very dysfunctional offense.
• 1:59
  Speaker 2: So a lot to break down there.
• 2:01
  Speaker 3: Sam, when it comes to the areas that are ailing
• 2:03
  Speaker 3: the Panthers' defense, do you view it as something that
• 2:07
  Speaker 3: is fixable within the season that they can do with
• 2:10
  Speaker 3: what they have? Or do they need to maybe look
• 2:13
  Speaker 3: outside for more help to try to fix this right now?
• 2:17
  Speaker 2: Well, I think when you really break it down, there's
• 2:21
  Speaker 2: a couple elements that you want to look at. So
• 2:24
  Speaker 2: right now they're about 20th in expected points added per play.
• 2:29
  Speaker 2: And they're about the same in success rate. So basically
• 2:33
  Speaker 2: what that means is they're allowing explosive plays, but they're
• 2:35
  Speaker 2: also allowing down-to-down success. Now, a lot of that comes
• 2:40
  Speaker 2: from things like turnovers. And right now they have three interceptions,
• 2:45
  Speaker 2: so kind of in the middle of the league there.
• 2:47
  Speaker 2: And those things are not necessarily things that you can
• 2:50
  Speaker 2: really plan for. So I think basically what's going to
• 2:55
  Speaker 2: have to happen is Either they're going to have to
• 2:58
  Speaker 2: try some different things schematically, or they're going to have
• 3:02
  Speaker 2: to look into potentially adding some new personnel on the
• 3:06
  Speaker 2: defensive side of the ball. In particular, what the bread
• 3:09
  Speaker 2: and butter of this team has been. over the last
• 3:13
  Speaker 2: couple of years has been trying to play one high coverage.
• 3:17
  Speaker 2: They're currently third in utilizing one high coverage. Basically that
• 3:22
  Speaker 2: means that they have one player in the middle. Typically
• 3:25
  Speaker 2: someone will be rolled down the court, the cornerbacks on
• 3:28
  Speaker 2: the outside will be on the islands. And they've been
• 3:30
  Speaker 2: able to do that because, you know, they have cornerbacks
• 3:33
  Speaker 2: that they've trusted despite them being in and out the
• 3:35
  Speaker 2: lineup this year. I'd like to see that number come down.
• 3:39
  Speaker 2: And I think if you want to look at a
• 3:40
  Speaker 2: team who has done that pretty successfully, at least from
• 3:44
  Speaker 2: a game plan perspective, it's the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Tampa
• 3:47
  Speaker 2: Bay Buccaneers currently sit at fifth in utilizing one high
• 3:52
  Speaker 2: coverage looks, but against the Cowboys and Panthers, they switched
• 3:57
  Speaker 2: it up, played a lot of too high and also
• 3:59
  Speaker 2: utilized a lot of blitz. So from a schematic perspective,
• 4:02
  Speaker 2: I think that's what I would like to see.
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: We're talking with Sam Bruckhaus from Summersports, Summersports.com. I can't
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: give them enough praise in terms of all the different
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: stats that it provides you with, give you more context.
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: You're hearing a lot of them from Sam here. Sam,
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: on offense, it was a disappointment in all three phases, obviously.
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: But on offense, it was the first game where Bryce
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: really looked bad. And a lot of people said, man,
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: that looked like Bryce from a couple years ago.
• 4:34
  Speaker 3: Would you.
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: Would you tell us to be a little concerned that
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: there could be more of that? Green Bay's got a
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: good defense. Denver's got a talented defense. Or do you
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: think that was more of an aberration in this offense
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: and Bryce will get back on track soon?
• 4:49
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 4:50
  Speaker 2: I think this upcoming week against green Bay will be
• 4:53
  Speaker 2: the true test of that because I don't necessarily trust
• 4:56
  Speaker 2: green Bay's defense all that much. It looks like a
• 4:59
  Speaker 2: close game that they played with Detroit last week. In reality,
• 5:04
  Speaker 2: it was one of the biggest spreads between success rate
• 5:08
  Speaker 2: and the actual point scored going back to 2016. They
• 5:11
  Speaker 2: really did not do a good job of stopping the
• 5:13
  Speaker 2: Detroit lions. What they, what they did a okay job of,
• 5:17
  Speaker 2: I guess, was generating turnovers. I'll be at one was
• 5:20
  Speaker 2: on a messed up snap and the lions missed out
• 5:24
  Speaker 2: on a fourth down conversion deep in their own territory.
• 5:28
  Speaker 2: So basically when you try to break those things down,
• 5:32
  Speaker 2: you start to realize this, this Packers defense could be
• 5:34
  Speaker 2: pretty shaky. So I think this could be a very,
• 5:36
  Speaker 2: very good test. What it comes down to is Bryce
• 5:40
  Speaker 2: is a smaller quarterback and smaller quarterbacks really struggle when
• 5:43
  Speaker 2: they get pressure. In particular, Rasheed Walker last week really
• 5:47
  Speaker 2: struggled with pressure. And the Packers don't necessarily have a
• 5:52
  Speaker 2: go-to edge rusher right now. And so I don't think
• 5:55
  Speaker 2: that's going to be that big of a problem this week.
• 5:58
  Speaker 2: They're going to try to mix up looks, get different matchups.
• 6:02
  Speaker 2: blitz and stunt quite a little bit and try to
• 6:05
  Speaker 2: manufacture pressure that way. So I actually think this could
• 6:07
  Speaker 2: be a good bounce back week for the offense. The
• 6:10
  Speaker 2: big problem is going to do Broncos who have an
• 6:11
  Speaker 2: immense amount of talent and also an immense amount of
• 6:14
  Speaker 2: scheme advantage. That's going to be the true test of
• 6:17
  Speaker 2: this offense.
• 6:18
  Speaker 3: Bryce did not have a performance the other day that
• 6:21
  Speaker 3: was typical of what he was doing to start the season.
• 6:25
  Speaker 3: Are you concerned that there could be a trend down
• 6:28
  Speaker 3: because of the offensive line, or are you expecting Bryce
• 6:31
  Speaker 3: to bounce back? Where do you think the truth is
• 6:34
  Speaker 3: right now with Bryce Young and really the offensive line
• 6:37
  Speaker 3: in front of Bryce?
• 6:39
  Speaker 2: So an interesting element, particularly when it comes to things
• 6:43
  Speaker 2: like getting sacked shows up and it's that typically it
• 6:47
  Speaker 2: sticks with quarterbacks. It sticks game to game. It sticks
• 6:51
  Speaker 2: if you switch teams. And so I do think to
• 6:54
  Speaker 2: a certain degree, this is within Bryce Young's control. I
• 6:58
  Speaker 2: think basically what happened was there was very little access
• 7:01
  Speaker 2: to the middle of the field that was available for
• 7:04
  Speaker 2: him in that Buccaneers game. And we've seen the Buccaneers
• 7:07
  Speaker 2: be able to do that to all fences that pride
• 7:11
  Speaker 2: themselves on accessing the middle of the field. In particular,
• 7:14
  Speaker 2: I'm talking about the Cowboys game where for the better
• 7:16
  Speaker 2: part of three quarters, they really shut the Cowboys down.
• 7:19
  Speaker 2: I think basically it's kinda up to Bryce on how
• 7:24
  Speaker 2: this goes. I think you know, accepting the checkdowns a
• 7:29
  Speaker 2: little bit more, trying not to force it. I think
• 7:31
  Speaker 2: as the game kind of spiraled out of control, he
• 7:33
  Speaker 2: was really trying to force it. And moreover, just ignoring
• 7:37
  Speaker 2: those big, those big negative plays or avoiding those big
• 7:41
  Speaker 2: negative plays rather is the key for him upcoming this week.
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: Yeah, his ability, he, through the first five games, he
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: had seemed to be able to avoid the sacks, right?
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: That pressure to sack number was very good. It was
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: not on Sunday. He could not, it was on him
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: so quick, I don't think he could get away from it.
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: I do want to ask you, Sam, about Green Bay's offense,
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: because my lord, they like to, Love likes to throw
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: it downfield, and I don't know if Golden's going to play,
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: but he and Watson have been taking the top off
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: defenses recently. But, man, their run game and run blocking
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: has been brutal. What do you think about this Green
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: Bay offense?
• 8:19
  Speaker 2: So I want to put in context how brutal their
• 8:22
  Speaker 2: rushing game has been. Whenever we look at offenses and
• 8:27
  Speaker 2: are trying to project them out the rest of the season,
• 8:29
  Speaker 2: this is actually the most anomalous offense that we've really
• 8:33
  Speaker 2: seen in regard to the deviation between their passing game,
• 8:38
  Speaker 2: which has been pretty good this year, all things considered,
• 8:41
  Speaker 2: and their rushing game, which has been one of the
• 8:43
  Speaker 2: worst going back to 2016. It's actually so bad that
• 8:47
  Speaker 2: it would be an anomaly. If the rushing defense doesn't
• 8:50
  Speaker 2: get better as the season continues, just because of the
• 8:54
  Speaker 2: strength of their passing offense. And basically what we figured
• 8:58
  Speaker 2: out is if defenses don't start to respect their passing offense,
• 9:04
  Speaker 2: the rushing game could just magically get better because you know,
• 9:08
  Speaker 2: this is a passing league. But basically, like you said,
• 9:11
  Speaker 2: I think the biggest problem with this Packers offense right
• 9:14
  Speaker 2: now is they lack an identity and they lack a
• 9:17
  Speaker 2: real grounding in the play action game. When you watch
• 9:21
  Speaker 2: teams like the bears or teams like the lions or
• 9:24
  Speaker 2: the 49ers, or the Rams just got back to this
• 9:28
  Speaker 2: in a, in a massive win last week, they're really
• 9:31
  Speaker 2: grounded in play action even if the running game really
• 9:35
  Speaker 2: isn't working, allowing them to create explosives, allowing them to
• 9:38
  Speaker 2: disrupt the linebacker and cores, which thus actually leads to
• 9:43
  Speaker 2: the pass, setting up the run rather than vice versa.
• 9:47
  Speaker 2: That's typically what the most successful teams in the league
• 9:49
  Speaker 2: like to do in past years. The Packers have been
• 9:53
  Speaker 2: one of the best and most consistent play action teams.
• 9:56
  Speaker 2: They just kind of stopped doing it last week. They
• 9:58
  Speaker 2: had a sub 20% playoff action rate. Typically, this year
• 10:02
  Speaker 2: in particular, we're seeing play action rates go above 25%
• 10:07
  Speaker 2: of all drop back passes. And so I'd really like
• 10:11
  Speaker 2: to see the Packers move utilize play action more because
• 10:14
  Speaker 2: they're really good at it. It signals a lack of identity.
• 10:17
  Speaker 2: It signals that they don't trust their running game. But
• 10:20
  Speaker 2: the issue is the data shows that they don't have
• 10:23
  Speaker 2: to trust their running game. So I think if you're
• 10:26
  Speaker 2: watching the game and they're running a lot of play
• 10:28
  Speaker 2: action and they're getting a lot of success, perhaps that
• 10:30
  Speaker 2: means the run game could come back. But if you're
• 10:32
  Speaker 2: just watching Jordan Love drop back and throw the ball
• 10:35
  Speaker 2: up in the air, I think this defense actually has
• 10:37
  Speaker 2: a chance to bounce back.
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: Sam, I got to ask you before we let you go.
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: My guy T-Bone here was singing a song with your
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: last name before you came on. To the tune of
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: Brick House, he was singing Bruck House. And I need
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: to know, has this ever happened to you before?
• 10:55
  Speaker 3: This was a private moment of the song got in
• 10:59
  Speaker 3: my head, Sam.
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: Do people do that to you?
• 11:02
  Speaker 2: So I come from a huge family. My mom is
• 11:05
  Speaker 2: the second youngest of nine. My dad's the youngest of six.
• 11:09
  Speaker 2: There's so many Brook houses that are out there. Every
• 11:13
  Speaker 2: single wedding that a Brook house man brings a new
• 11:16
  Speaker 2: Brook house woman into the family. When she walks into
• 11:20
  Speaker 2: the reception, they're playing the Commodores, baby.
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: Okay, there you go. I figured that had to be
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: involved in your life.
• 11:25
  Speaker 2: See, I knew.
• 11:26
  Speaker 3: I knew it. I figured that was the case. I
• 11:28
  Speaker 3: love it. I love it.
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: All right, brother, we appreciate it, man. Keep up the
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: good work. Summersports.com. Y'all definitely need to check it out.
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: Thank you, Sam. Appreciate you.
• 11:37
  Speaker 2: Thank y'all so much.