Latest / CattleUSA Daily / 185: Gary Lezak on the LRC and the Weather Pattern Shaping Agriculture

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185: Gary Lezak on the LRC and the Weather Pattern Shaping Agriculture · CattleUSA Daily

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  In this episode with Gary Lezak, we are breaking down at the
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  weather pattern, what is happening in the weather right
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  now, and everything that is setting up with the LRC.
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  It's a very exciting time for Gary and his team at Weather
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  2020. The LRC, The Lezak recurring
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  cycle is currently in the midst of setting up right now.
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  So the weather that we have been seeing since the beginning of
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  October till now and even into November is very, very important
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  for the weather that we are going to be seeing for the next
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  year. It's a very exciting time.
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  So Gary breaks all of that down for us today, explains what
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  we've been seeing so far and what we could potentially be
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  seeing for the rest of this pattern setup and what to expect
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  there. Without further ado, let's go
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  ahead and hop into this episode, Gary.
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  But before we do, if you guys could take a second to like and
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  subscribe, we would really appreciate it here at the team.
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  And let's hear from Gary. Welcome to the Cattle USA Daily
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  podcast, your go to source for the latest livestock markets,
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  industry insights and the updates shaping agriculture
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  today. I'm your host, Lauren Moylan, a
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  passionate advocate for agriculture here to keep you
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  informed and connected. Now let's dive into today's
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  episode. Gary, welcome back to the
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  podcast. Good morning.
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  How are you? Good morning.
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  I've got something on the way here because I saw you actually
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  sent me something. It's called your sourdough.
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  What are we calling it, Lauren Sourdough.
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  Lauren. Sourdough, yeah.
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  So LCD, no, I'm not going to say it.
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  No LSD we need. To come up with a different
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  name. LOSDI heard that's coming in the
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  makeup. Anyway, that's Lauren Sourdough
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  LSD. She said it to me.
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  But anyway, I'm going to test it out this weekend and I can't
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  wait. But hopefully it comes fresh.
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  I know you sent it Express, right?
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  Yes, I did. I sent.
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  It express I was. Supposed to be there yesterday.
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  Stinking FedEx old turds. Somebody might have taken it and
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  eaten it already. I'll go look out on the front
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  door. But bottom line is, you know, I
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  can't wait. It's I can't wait to taste the
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  sourdough looking. I'm looking forward to your
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  special. I am so excited for you to get
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  to try some. I made extras this week.
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  I texted Gary on my sourdough day a picture and I was like,
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  what's your address? I'm sending it to you.
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  And I wrapped it all up in like 50 layers of cling wrap.
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  So hopefully it's still good and tastes amazing.
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  I don't know what the shipping requirements are of traditional
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  people that sell sourdough over the Internet, probably not that.
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  But hopefully it still ships fresh and it's delicious.
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  I'll let you. I will let you.
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  Looking forward to it. OK.
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  I better get here today. Yes.
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  If it didn't, there's always you'll make the next one.
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  We'll make sure that one works, but we'll.
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  Hey, I've got multiple loaves in the freezer.
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  I'll just go throw one of those. I'll send it to UPS.
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  This time we'll try UPS. Instead of that, I also know
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  it's not the easiest thing to just go Sandy.
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  You got to go do it so. Yeah, yeah.
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  It's one of those things where like I did it and I was like,
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  OK, I'm texting Gary right now because if I don't text him
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  right now, now like I, I just won't do it.
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  And so I was like, I got to text him right now and commit and
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  then I got it done so. Thank goodness I wrote back
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  right away too. So.
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  Yes, precisely. I love it.
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  Well, how's life otherwise in Colorado?
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  It's dry here and we'll talk about the weather pattern that
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  it's evolving. It's not set in stone yet, so
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  we're not making any conclusions yet, but it has been extremely
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  dry across parts of Colorado. The mountains still don't have
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  snow on the peaks yet, which is crazy.
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  However, there should be some later this week.
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  We'll see how that goes and the weather patterns in transition.
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  So we'll talk about that. But today is a special day.
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  Today is October the 22nd while we're recording this air.
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  You guys listen now probably 24th, 25th whenever you're
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  listening to this, but on October 22nd, 1996, way before
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  Lauren was born, is that right? Yeah, a few years.
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  You were born after 911, so anyway.
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  It's. Crazy.
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  I'm a. Little baby.
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  But On this date, October 22nd, 1996, a powerful storm developed
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  over eastern Kansas and western Missouri.
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  The coldest spot in the entire nation at noon was 32°.
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  In Kansas City, it dropped to 32° at noon and the rain changed
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  to snow. And if you look outside, look at
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  all the leaves on the trees still, and that snow was a heavy
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  wet 5 to 8 inches of snow. The roads may have had one or
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  two inches in it. Then the roads melted off.
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  But the the snow that fell into the trees and on those leaves
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  and on those leaves with the branches, the trees came
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  tumbling down and there were massive power outages.
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  It was crackling at 5:00 in the afternoon when the snow was not
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  quite over yet. It was like a disaster.
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  So we call it the October Surprise because that morning I
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  was a morning meteorologist at FOX 4 News in Kansas City.
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  And I remember talking to the representative at the National
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  Weather Service. I said, I think it's going to
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  change the snow. And he says it just might.
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  We might get an inch of snow and that would not have been a
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  disaster, but by noon it started snowing like crazy.
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  So we said one to three inches. By two, we said 4 to 5 inches.
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  By 4, we said 5 to 8 inches. So the the forecast went from
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  rain, maybe mixed with snow to all of a sudden there's 5 to 8
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  inches of snow on the ground and it caused the disaster.
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  And that's what we call October 22nd, 1996, the October
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  Surprise. I'm not surprised by too many
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  things, but that was fun. It was a fun, exciting story,
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  even though it caused a disaster for power outages.
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  Wow. I can only imagine, like, being
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  in the studio that day and being like, huh, yeah, I think we
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  could. I think we could get an inch of
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  snow. And then by the end of the day,
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  it's like you got 8 inches of wet snow.
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  You got power lines down. Like, yeah.
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  Oh my gosh, yeah. Those kinds of things happen
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  with tornadoes, but very rarely with snowstorms.
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  And with a tornado, it can go from clear blue sky.
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  Here comes a thunderstorm, it produces a tornado, and an hour
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  later it's clear blue sky. But 36 people are dead.
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  OK, I'm just saying it's not that that's a surprise like
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  this. October surprises, but that's
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  how weather works. A disaster is a horrible,
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  horrible thing because it could be.
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  It can end up being serene and seemingly nice, but there's
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  people that have been impacted significantly.
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  Yeah, absolutely. I think the biggest snowstorm,
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  ice storm that I've ever lived through was the one in, was it
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  2007 or 2008 in eastern Kansas? We had a really big 10.
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  Gosh, I think I wasn't in school for like. 2 and 1003 weeks.
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  It was 2009. 2000. Nine, it was Christmas week of
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  2009, but there were others that year, lots of others.
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  So my school was impacted a lot in 2009 and in 2000, the winter
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  2010, 2011, also two winters in a row had a lot of snow.
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  But yeah, so you would have been like 6-7, eight years old.
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  So that would have been like the time that you remember that
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  well. Yeah, yeah, I, I remember
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  missing a lot of school and I remember it being around
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  Christmas break because my mom was telling all of her friends
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  that she was like, I'm ready to like, put these kids up for
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  adoption. Like, they can go back to school
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  now. They can walk actually.
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  Like please take them, take them away.
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  Yeah, I've got my my calendar. I got I could call Patella 2000
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  and nine 2010 calendar tell you the exact dates, but I used to
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  keep a weather calendar. What happened is my mother would
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  every year when I when I went to College in 1980.
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  Actually it was started two years before that.
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  I think we might have talked about maybe not 1978.
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  I was 16 years old and my mom and dad and took us to go see
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  Star Wars, the original Star Wars at the movie theater in
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  1978. And we were All Star Wars crazy
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  like everyone started to become. And we and my mom and dad bought
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  me a Star Wars calendar, 1978 calendar.
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  And so I started keeping my weather entries in that
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  calendar. So in the Star Wars calendar,
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  the first one, I have all that year's weather data.
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  Then then 1979 I got another calendar and beginning in 1980
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  when I went to college, my what happened is my mom would send me
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  a calendar for the holidays every single year.
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  She would send me like a Greenpeace calendar and she sent
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  me these calendars. 7 or 8 of them were Greenpeace ones and
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  then the other twenty were what every year's I would wait for
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  her to get me to calendar because it was her present to
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  me. And then that became my weather
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  calendar. And so that's how I got this
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  1996 October surprise in there. By 2002 I when I became chief
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  meteorologist IN20001999 I started keeping a counter at the
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  station instead of myself. So my my calendar keeping ended
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  but amazing. So fun.
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  I'm following these stories today.
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  Nostalgia, I love it. I love it.
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  I love it. Well, Speaking of the weather,
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  what is what's happening in the weather right now?
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  We have some exciting things that we can talk about this.
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  Week. Yeah, the weather pattern is
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  setting up the LRC is is it stands for my name.
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  It was named after me back in 2002, thousand and two or so
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  also and the LESAC recurring cycle after I started making all
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  these ridiculously incredible weather predictions based on
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  what had happened in the last few weeks and months.
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  So the LRC has four core principles.
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  A unique pattern sets up every fall and right now we're in that
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  unique development. So a pattern that's never
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  happened before. And let me tell you this
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  pattern, I've never seen it anything like it.
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  This pattern that's setting up right now, I don't know if
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  that's good, bad or ugly yet, but there's going to be the
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  good, the bad, and the ugly. The ugly right now is like it
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  won't rain or snow anywhere, but we'll see if that continues.
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  But a unique pattern sets up the pattern cycling these anchor
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  troughs and ridges show up. That's a whole other long story.
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  And then the pattern repeats over and over and over again.
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  That allows us to make these uncanny predictions that are
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  just ridiculous. So right now the early results
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  are in and the jet stream is getting stronger and it's very
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  dry to start. But last year on this exact same
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  week, it was very, very dry to start.
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  And then we were able to make a prediction by December and
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  January that the Nebraska, Kansas region would go out of a
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  drought, the drought would decrease and we were 100%
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  accurate. The only drought that has
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  increased happened in August and September from Ohio back to
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  eastern Kansas, Ohio across Illinois, Indiana back to
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  eastern Kansas. The drought has been expanding a
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  little bit. So it's something to monitor
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  closely because that could expand and spread across the
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  entire plains that we could have a problem for drought next year.
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  I'm not making that call. I'm just saying we have to look
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  closely at this. But last year we thought about
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  the same thing. The pattern is completely,
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  completely different than a year ago.
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  It is completely different. Let me just tell you this unique
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  pattern that I'm talking about. It is unique, OK, I don't know
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  what it is yet, but I know that it's dry and I know last year
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  was dry and it got wetter last year.
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  It didn't get extremely wet. We had just enough rain to to
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  produce some really good conditions for corn and soybeans
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  and for the cattle and everything involved with Cattle
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  USA. So just just know that it ended
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  up being pretty good year for weather, even though it still
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  wasn't extremely exciting for me.
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  So now what does this year's pattern entail?
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  Yes, a dry beginning. But next week, the week after we
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  get into November, we start to really narrow in on what those
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  signs are. Just know we're not there yet.
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  Sorry Lauren, I can't make conclusions yet.
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  It's fine, Gary. I guess I can let it go.
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  I don't want you to make a conclusion and then have to
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  backpedal in a few weeks, so. But there's a lot I'm not.
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  I don't ever backpedal. Okay, By the way, last year, if
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  you remember, do we ever backpedal?
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  We never backpedal. You just hit one of my pet
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  peeves. It's like, oh, yeah, yeah, no,
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  we, we, yeah, yeah. We made a mistake on that way.
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  People go, Gary, why don't you tell us when you're wrong?
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  Oh, there are times when we're wrong.
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  We're not 100% accurate. But when it comes to these broad
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  forecasts, we have been four years in a row accurate for the
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  agriculture belt. And that's why it's important to
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  understand that. So you get one of my pet peeves,
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  you know, but now let's let's see, let's see how it sets up.
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  You know, it's very it's absolutely fascinating to see,
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  see it evolve. And sometimes the pattern, I
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  think it looks exciting and it's not sometimes it doesn't look
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  exciting and it ends up being exciting.
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  So there's a lot of things going on right now.
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  Like, for example, while we're talking, there is energy that's
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  going to come into the West Coast, that's going to race E
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  across the United States could impact Monday Night Football out
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  at Arrowhead Stadium. When the Kansas City Chiefs take
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  on the huge, excuse me, the Washington Redskins, the roster
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  and football team, the Washington commander.
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  Boy, they'll always be the Washington Redskins to me
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  anyway. But the commanders come into the
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  Arrowhead. Some of the models have rain on
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  Monday night. So let's see what happens with
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  that. I'm going to I have to make the
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  forecast, your eye forecast for the Kansas City Chiefs long
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  range and provide updates for them.
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  They're asking right now what's it look like for Monday night
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  because it's finally a concern weather wise.
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  So hopefully it's good for the Chiefs game on Monday night.
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  Yes, absolutely. It is a busy time for everyone
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  here in the agricultural belt right now, whether people are
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  still finishing up harvest, still starting harvest in some
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  areas, whatever they're kind of doing there or fall processing,
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  bringing calves and taking cattle to sale barn.
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  It's it's crazy around here right now.
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  Everyone's moving and grooving. So weather is very timely right
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  now and people are concerned about what's going on, what's
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  happening in the world. And then, hey, as a Chiefs fan,
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  I'm also concerned about what's going to be happening on Monday
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  night. Like I would like us to have
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  some good weather on Monday night because, darn it, we need
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  to keep our butts in gear and keep rocking and rolling.
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  But as far as just the next couple weeks go, Gary, do you
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  have any other thoughts or just things like that as we continue
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  to round out the month of October, which is crazy to think
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  about that it's we're getting really close to the end of
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  October. And I swear it was just January
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  yesterday. Tides flying by.
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  You're right. Let's see what happens in the
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  next 2-3 weeks because the my original theory way back in the
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  1980s when I discovered this is October 15th to November 5th.
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  October 15th to November 10th, those are the critical weeks to
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  really tell what the pattern is. We're right down the middle of
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  that, right in the middle of it now.
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  So let's see what happens in the next 10 days.
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  See what happens with a storm that could affect Arrowhead on
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  Monday night and we'll see. But you're right, harvest is
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  still underway finishing up in some areas.
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  But being dry for harvest is a good thing.
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  So we've had, we've had at least that blessing.
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  It's it's just a weird, it's weird how the how the
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  agriculture belt did this season, it all came together.
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  Yes, it's definitely interesting how it is all shaping out.
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  And so I'm very curious to see how this cycle is going to come
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  together and what we're going to be able to see for the next year
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  going forward. Gary, do you have any other
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  final thoughts as we round out the podcast today?
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  No, but I'm going to go downstairs and see if the
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  sourdoughs. Yes, I hope that it is.
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  And if it's not, that FedEx man better be knocking today.
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  It's not that I'm going to go dig that receipt out and pull
• 16:37
  that tracking number out and I'm going to, I'm gonna start making
• 16:39
  some calls, be like, hey, where's my bread, guys?
• 16:42
  I knew you'd let you know. I'm looking forward to.
• 16:46
  It OK, awesome awesome. Well Gary, thank you for your
• 16:48
  time to all of our listeners out there make sure you check out
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  the show notes down below if anything that Gary was talking
• 16:53
  about today interests you. We have all of Gary's links down
• 16:55
  below, whether that be his sub stack, where he goes into even
• 16:58
  more detail than he does on here on everything that's happening
• 17:01
  in the weather, the weather 2020 dashboard, anything else that is
• 17:04
  down there. Check all of those out and we
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  will see you all tomorrow on another episode.
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  Have a good one y'all.