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Paper Silver IMPLODES: Experts Predict HUNDREDS PER OUNCE is Coming · Man in America Podcast

0:15
Speaker 1: Welcome to Man in America, a voice of reason in a world gone mad. I'm your host, Seth Hullhouse. Right now, we're witnessing a massive shift in the global financial system. Almost every day now, we're seeing gold and silver hit new record highs. Actually, I'll pull up right now just to take a quick look.
0:36
So right now, as I'm recording this, gold is at $4,212 per ounce, and silver is at $53 per ounce. These are major numbers, which we're gonna be getting into in today into today's show. So what were we looking at tonight, though, is what is this telling us? Why are we seeing this major price action? You know, typically in the past, you might see silver go on a run, and, oh, it's up 5, you know, $5 or $8 over the course of a month or so.
1:08
It drops back down, and it hovers around. That's not what's happening right now. Something much bigger is happening. Now I've been covering precious metals almost since the beginning of this show back in 2020, and there's a few reasons why. One, it's a it's a passion of mine.
1:23
I used to work in in the industry, jewelry and and precious metals industry, but it's also because I see it as one of the kind of bellwethers or it's it's the canary in the coal mine to the global financial system. And today's show will explain what I mean by that. And so because I feel certain almost responsibility to you to explain my best understanding of what's happening, that's part of the reason why I'm doing this because I've been, again, talking about gold and silver, and I've been recommending gold and silver for many years. And so I feel responsibility to explain why is this happening. You know, I have people calling me and saying, Seth, what's happening with silver?
2:00
Had a call with my mom this morning, and she's like, Seth, what's going on with silver? And I was explaining what's happening. It's like, okay. I'm gonna buy some more. Was like, okay.
2:08
That's good. Right? But what we're gonna talk about is much more than just the price and, hey, hey, it's a great price. We're gonna going into so much deeper information behind that. So before we jump into a few quick notes, first off, if you're watching on Rumble, thank you for supporting a free speech platform.
2:23
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2:35
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2:46
Also, just a reminder that every show that I do is done as a podcast as well. So your favorite podcast app, whether it's Apple Podcasts or Spotify, just search for Man in America. You'll find me there. And if you're listening on Apple Podcasts, it's another place if you leave a review. Whether it's one star or five stars, it's okay.
3:02
But if you leave a review on there, it also helps me to reach more people on Apple Podcasts because I'm heavily shadow banned on most of the mainstream outlets such as YouTube or Facebook, Instagram, etcetera. So diving into today's show. Okay. Let's just start with looking at the prices, and I'll give you just a quick warning. Today's show is gonna be a more technical show.
3:25
Now, I'm not a technical person. Right? I went to art school. I'm a creative guy. I never liked numbers and finance, all that kind of stuff.
3:31
Did decent at math and everything. But so maybe it's a good thing, though, because I'm not some, like, day trader trying to explain this complex thing to you. I'm actually just like you. I'm just some guy trying to figure out what the heck is going on. So I'll do my best to explain things in the language that makes sense to me as a simpleton.
3:48
Now I've got one really good Substack article, which I'll be getting into shortly, that is very detailed, I'll do my best to kind of walk you through it and then show you a lot of real world examples of what's happening. So let's first look at just the price. Here we are. So we're sitting at gold and silver price. Let's take a look at what they've each done in the past year.
4:06
So here is a one year gold price. So as you can see at this exact same time last year, October, gold was sitting at around $26.50 an ounce. Right now, it's up almost double that, right? Not quite, but it's up to again, actually this doesn't go this is yeah, it gets up to about 40 almost 4,200. But you can see it, that's a major climb.
4:33
Now, if you look at let's just say, let's look at two years. You can see, really starting around July or say June, July of this year, it's gone not straight vertical, but this is a that's a major spike in value. Okay? So in the past two years, it's up 130 percent. Actually, remember actually a lot of the gold that I was buying was I was buying it at this is back in 2020, 2021, 2021, 2019, I was buying it 1,700 an ounce, 1,800 an ounce.
5:04
And think, Emera, when gold was almost crossing it, it was like, you know, playing around that $2,000 threshold. I thought, oh, did I ever pay for it if I bought some gold at 2,000? Because let's look at, you know, five years, and you can see. Right? Yeah.
5:15
There you go. So right around, you know, again, 2021, 2022, it was dropping below 2,000. But you can see though, especially once we hit 2024 into 2025, major, major spike. Now let's look and see what silver has done. Okay, this is silver in the last year.
5:34
It's up from 32 or so to 52, right? It's a major, major gain. And again, looking at, say, silver over the past five years, even more so it's up a 115%. So back in 2020, it was hovering around 25. And I remember actually, I remember buying some silver at like $17 around 2022.
5:56
Very lucky, right? I was like, I'm glad I bought some at then. But again, you can see once you get into 2025, it is almost going vertical. Now, this is not just because a lot of people are suddenly interested in buying gold and silver. It is so much bigger than that.
6:13
And so I'm gonna be looking at that today. So I first wanna highlight just a tweet from, Tyler Durden. This is the guy that runs ZeroHedge, one of my favorite financial blogs. He says that silver is going to a $150 in the very near future, likely by a single event squeeze, not a trend price match. So this is interesting.
6:34
Silver going to one fifty, almost tripling in price, but he's not saying that it's gonna be gradual. He's saying a, very near future, and b, likely by a single event squeeze. And I think that squeeze is what we are witnessing right now. We're at the I wouldn't say we're at the beginning of it. We're at the towards the end of it, but the squeeze is starting to really tighten.
6:55
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7:11
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7:41
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8:15
Again, it's pplx.ai/mia. So, take back your time and take back the truth online. And there's an article that we get into, I mentioned this, the Substack article, which highlights a lot of this, but basically, well, I'll get into I'll wait to the article to explain it. Okay. Now, the thing is it's not just, you know, Zero Head, you could say is a more conspiratorial blog.
8:41
He's not it's not CNBC saying this. Right? But CNBC is kind of saying the same thing. So here's an article from CNBC saying this is from today, I think. Notice of October 13.
8:55
A $100 silver? Analysts say the metal could double from record highs. If you've been following precious metals, you would you would know, as I do, that you never see major media covering this. You never see Jim Kramer or any of the mainstream financial people. They're never talking about gold and silver.
9:13
They're never recommending gold and silver. It's always about Nvidia stock and the magnificent seven and bonds. They're never talking about precious metals. So here this, this tweet from GoldSilverHQ says mainstream media is finally jumping on the silver train. The plebs who so far couldn't even spell silver are about to FOMO in, so fear of missing out in, which is true.
9:34
And this is one thing to be considering is that I think you're you're gonna start seeing, as I'll show in the show, a lot of the general public is starting to see this. They're starting to wanna buy and come into and move some of their portfolio into silver and gold. Now what's wild is this right here. Just this morning, Jamie Dimon said that gold could easily go to 5,000 or $10,000 per ounce. This is huge.
10:00
I remember, you know, six months ago, you know, covering different financial institutions that said maybe gold can hit $4,000 an ounce. It seemed like it was such a stretch at that time. But J. B. Diamond coming out saying that gold could easily go to 5 or $10,000 an ounce.
10:16
Now part of me thinks because if you if you know the history of JPMorgan, you know, their position was silver and how much of the silver market they've cornered and the short positions they've had on silver, or they currently do have on silver, maybe he's trying to pull people away from focusing on silver and focusing on gold. But very, very significant that Jamie Dimon, the CEO of JPMorgan Chase, one of the the most important financial institutions in the world, is coming out and saying that gold could easily go to $10,000 an ounce. I mean, that that seems like crazy talk. It seems like the stuff that you'd always see on some obscure rumble or YouTube channel, like the gold bugs saying, oh, it's gonna be unobtained. It's gonna hit $10,000 an ounce.
10:56
You're like, oh, come on. You guys are just you're just the gold bugs, you're always saying that. Well, here's JPMorgan or, you know, Jamie Dimon coming out and saying that, yes, gold could easily go to 5 or $10,000 an ounce from just over $4,000. That is very significant. But what I'm gonna do is I'm gonna spend a good amount of chunk, a good chunk of time on this article with you, written by a guy named Jesse Colombo, financial expert.
11:26
He's predicted a lot of the market activity and crashes and everything. So he wrote this very detailed article, Understanding the Current Silver Squeeze. Now, I'm gonna read most of this article to you. It's a relatively long article. There's a lot of charts.
11:42
There's a lot of information. However, if you really want to understand what's actually happening with the price of silver, and also the price of gold is experiencing very similar situations, you can apply a lot of this information to gold as well. This article helps summarize it better than any other resource that I've found. But as I mentioned to you, it's quite technical. I'll do my best to make it as kind of layman as possible.
12:10
He does a good job also explaining too. Like, he's he's a good job educating on what's happening. However, this article is very important. So I hope you have the patience just to sit and listen, maybe take some notes to understand this. Because a, if you own silver or you're considering buying silver, the information in this article absolutely affects you, and I think you should pay attention.
12:34
And b, if you don't, but you care about the overall global economy and you concern what's happening, this also absolutely affects you. So either way, I hope that you can give it a good listen. I'm gonna get a drink of water first, because I'm not, you know, kill my voice with voice with this. Okay. Alright.
12:54
So, says understanding the current silver squeeze. The silver shortage in London is only a small glimpse of what lies ahead when the paper silver system unravels and a frantic rush begins for the extremely limited supply of physical silver. After languishing after languishing for much of 2024 and early twenty twenty five while gold soared, silver is finally coming into its own in a big way, surging nearly 60% over the past five months and shaking off its reputation as a sluggish investment. On Friday, it closed at an all time high above $50, a price level that as I recently explained, brought the bull markets of 1980 and 2011 to an abrupt halt. Meaning that before, when we saw silver on an absolute tear in 1980 and 2011, it hit 50 and it got smashed right back down.
13:48
And there's been a lot of speculation, people saying, oh, is this the same thing that's gonna happen again? Is it gonna hit $50 and then go back down to say 30 or 20? And a lot of people believe that was going to happen, but what we're seeing though is that it's not. At least it hasn't proved to. It's continuing to go up.
14:03
And this article helps explain why. He says, On top of that, there are now abundant signs that the physical silver market is buckling under stress, with clear indications of a silver squeeze or shortage taking place. In this piece, we'll look at what's happening and how this squeeze is likely to resolve. So let me first I'll take a step back and explain the idea of the silver squeeze a little bit. It's kinda like a bank run.
14:28
So banking and I think they changed the rules, you know, shortly after COVID, but during during COVID, the basically, the reserve requirement, forget the exact term for it, was was was 0%. Meaning that if I went to a bank and I gave them a $100, the bank was not required to keep any of that money in its own coffers. It could then take that money and lend it out. Could take that money and put invest it in different vehicles and stock market or bonds or whatever. The bank wasn't required to have to keep any of any of that money.
14:58
Now typically, it's been around 10%, meaning that if I give the bank a $100, they have to keep $10 in the bank. So if you can imagine that, let's say it's a 10% reserve requirement. If a 100 people all give the bank $1, right, as an example, the bank has a $100. If the bank is only required to keep 10% or $10, that bank is depending on all 100 people not coming at once saying, I want my dollar back. Because if that happened, that's what you would refer to as a bank run, and it would collapse the bank.
15:30
Because the bank would then say, oh, we only have $10 to give out. So maybe the first 10 people will get a dollar, but no one else is gonna get dollar. So 90 people just lost their entire savings of a dollar. That's the basic idea behind this. This is if if you've seen It's a Wonderful Life, which I highly recommend you watch, especially it's a beautiful movie, great, beautiful values and everything.
15:51
But if you wanna understand what it looks like when there's a bank run, that's a great movie to show you because that's what happened during the Great Depression, when the banks just didn't have the money to give back to people when they wanted it. So the same thing is happening with silver and gold, but silver specifically, where what they've done is they've created as a way to suppress the price of silver, and I won't get into all the mechanisms of why they're doing it. They've basically created the paper market. So silver is a commodity. Right?
16:18
There's only so many ounces on earth. There's only so much so many ounces have been pulled out of the earth, and only so much comes out of the earth every year. And so to keep the price of silver low, they've they've artificially inflated the quantity of silver with paper silver. It's the same idea as what the bank has done. Meaning, let's just say that this is a 10 ounce bar I always keep at my desk just because I I like holding it, it just feels cool.
16:44
Let's just say that I took this 10 ounce bar, and I I gave it to the bank, say over in London, and they say, hey. You hold on to this for me. Or I I wanna go buy some silver, and the bank says, okay, we'll sell you a certificate saying you own the silver. Same thing. Let's just imagine a 100 people all take this bar of silver, and they go into the bank, and they give it to them.
17:02
And the bank is holding it. The bank then gives them, or maybe they don't even give it to them, they say, I wanna buy a bar of silver, the bank says okay here's your piece of paper that says you own a 10 ounce bar of silver. Now if they sell a 100 of those, but there's only one of these 10 ounce bars of silver, it works for a while, but if people lose confidence in the bank's ability to deliver that silver upon request, the whole thing falls apart. And then this is one of the key reasons why we're starting to see the price of silver break away is because people are losing confidence in the banks, because the banks are running out of silver. They're not able to fulfill those contracts, because they haven't just given out say 10 pieces of paper for every silver, every piece of silver.
17:44
Actually, I'm going to show you. There are now three sixty paper contracts for every one ounce of silver. This is how much they have inflated, artificially inflated the supply of silver with paper contracts. So that means that for every ounce that actually exists, three fifty nine others are just digital promises. If everyone demanded delivery at once, the entire paper system would implode and silver's true value would be revealed.
18:15
Before 1873, when The US quietly demonetized silver, they called the crime of 73, the natural gold to silver ratio averaged 15 to one. Today, it's over 80 to one, meaning the price difference between, you know, so basically pricing. So if gold was at a thousand dollars an ounce, at 15 to one, silver will be $1.50 an ounce. But today, it's over 80 to one. Okay.
18:39
Yet silver is used in everything, energy, tech, medicine, EVs, AI hardware, solar, etcetera. As silver supply runs dry and demand keeps rising, the price suppression through paper markets can't hold forever. When the dam breaks, silver won't just catch up to gold, it'll outperform it, which is an interesting kind of idea there. So here's a little screenshot he also shared. It says, if you take today's COMEX spot prices silver, say, $3 an ounce, and you multiply it by the paper leverage ratio of 360 times, you get $19,000 per ounce.
19:13
Now that's not like this he says, this figure isn't an official valuation, but it illustrates the imbalance between the paper supply and the physical reality. It's essentially saying, if every paper claim had to be backed by a real ounce, the price of silver would need to rise to $19,000 an ounce to balance supply and demand. Very, very important fact there. And this is one of the keys to understanding what's happening here. Now getting back into the article here.
19:47
So he says that, On top of that, there's now an abundant signs that the physical silver market is buckling under stress with a clear indications of a silver squeeze or shortage taking place as we just went into. In this piece, we'll take a look at what's happening and how the squeeze is likely to resolve. For now, the squeeze is primarily centered in the wholesale London bullion market, where the dominant form of silver traded is the good delivery silver bar weighing a thousand Troy ounces as shown in the picture below. So those bars right there, see those are 100 Troy ounce bars, and that is the main way that silver is traded. As you see in the picture, he says these bars must be at least 99.9% pure and produced by refineries approved by the London Bullion Market Association, the LBMA, and lists some of the approved refiners.
20:38
Over the past week, as silver's price surged, there has been a there's been breakneck demand for physical bullion from investors, exchange traded funds, ETFs, futures, and other derivatives. This has created a shortage in the already tight London physical bullion market. There are several forms of evidence pointing to this, including soaring lease rates, which represent the annualized cost of borrowing metal in the London market. According to Bloomberg, those rates have jumped as high as 30% in recent days. That is a clear and unmistakable sign of stress in the physical silver market, and it's something worth paying close attention to.
21:15
So this is your silver's borrowing costs showing. Okay? Basically, so say someone needs to again, not a financial guy, if they need to they kind of like, on paper, borrow some silver to fulfill a trade or whatever to do, they used to be able to get it for close to 0%. But now we're seeing that spike, as you mentioned, over 30%. He says further evidence of stress in London's physical silver market can be seen in the widening bid ask spreads for spot silver.
21:44
These spreads, which typically hovered around 3¢ per ounce, have now spiked to well over 20¢. The bid ask spread represents the difference between the highest price a buyer is willing to pay, which is the bid, and the lowest price a seller is willing to accept, the ask. It functions as a transaction cost and is usually earned by the market maker for providing liquidity and facilitating the trade. So it used to be, again, that the difference between what someone is bidding and what someone is paying is about 3¢, but now that spread has spiked to well over 20¢. You can see in this chart.
22:19
Okay. Actually, yeah, that's the bid ask spread. Very, very significant. You're seeing up to 80¢ an ounce at the peak there. Even more evidence of stress can be seen in the recent spike in the spread between the London spot price of silver and the New York price as represented by COMEX silver futures.
22:36
So basically, if you think about this, COMEX, which is the commodity exchange, I think it's in, Chicago, this is what, you know, the silver pricing comes out for the New York American market. London has its pricing. So, basically, different countries have different, price markets that price their silver. And globally, those prices are very, very closely tied. Right?
22:55
Because think about it. If silver was priced at $50 an ounce in New York, yet it was priced at a $100 an ounce in Hong Kong, people would be basically shipping huge amounts of silver from New York to Hong Kong and be making a lot of money. So there's a you know, because of just the the fair, you know, open market, fair market, you know, fair trade, I guess how you put it, those numbers stay pretty, pretty close. However, they're jumping. Okay.
23:23
So this spread, which normally sits at around minus 30¢ per ounce. So go get more more information on this. With the futures trading slightly higher has jumped to extraordinary $3 per ounce with the London spot price actually exceeding the futures price. So the futures price is the price that they're actually, I'm not gonna try to explain it to you because it's it's a little over my head, but you'll you'll get the point here. This unusual condition is known as backwardation, a market situation where the spot price of a commodity is higher than its futures price.
23:51
It signals a supply shortage and a strong immediate demand. The last time a backwardation of this magnitude occurred in the silver market was in 1980 during the Hunt brothers' attempt to corner the silver market. So again, you can see this chart showing you the average of around negative 30¢ has surging up to over $3. It's another indicator that the pricing mechanisms are breaking. The intraday chart from the past week highlights the sharp surge that developed in the spread between London spot prices silver and New York futures price.
24:21
Again, can see these these prices surging. The physical silver bullion shortage in London along with the resulting and extremely rare price differential has led some traders to fly bulky 1,000 ounce ounce good delivery bars from the Comex vaults in New York to London. So literally, people are because of that price difference, they're flying these thousand ounce bars on airplanes over to London. It's crazy. He says the price gap has grown large enough to justify the high cost of air transport, making the move profitable despite significant logistical challenges.
24:59
Air freighting precious metals is typically reserved for much higher value gold, as was the case earlier this year when gold was flown into The US amid speculation about potential import tariffs, which we saw that. A lot of ideas, okay, is Trump repatriating the gold reserves? Are we gonna, you know, audit Fort Knox? Because we couldn't make sense of it because we saw that a massive amount of gold was flowing into The United States, like literally, like airplanes full of gold were flying into The United States. The fact this kind of air transport is now being used for silver is highly unusual and underscores just how strained London's physical market has become.
25:34
So why is it they're paying a higher price for it in London? Because it's harder to get there, and that's what it shows you is that there's a squeeze happening. These are the indicators you see of that is that it's not as readily available. So they're paying a premium just to get a hold of the physical inventory. One of the key factors contributing to the current physical silver shortage in London is the significant drawdown in silver inventories of the of the past few years.
26:00
London holdings have fallen from a peak of 1,180,000,000 Troy ounces in 2021 to just seven ninety million ounces today, a 33% decline as shown by the black line in the chart below. The drop is even more pronounced when accounting for free float silver, which excludes the holdings of the nine largest ETFs. This trend is illustrated by the yellow line of the chart. The smaller the available inventory of physical silver, the more vulnerable the market becomes to shortages like the one that we're now witnessing. Okay, and as you're showing you that London, the volume in the London vaults.
26:38
Now, one of the main factors behind the sharp decline in above ground silver stock in recent years and a key setup for the current physical silver squeeze is the structural silver deficit that has persisted over the last, past half decade. This deficit has been driven by demand consistently outpacing supply with the annual shortfall of around 150,000,000 Troy ounces, a figure that is expected again this year, meaning that the demand is outpacing what we're actually pulling out of the ground. As long as this imbalance continues above ground silver, inventories will continue to shrink making shortage conditions more severe and more frequent. This is especially true now that investor demand is surging with silver finally breaking above $50. I believe this milestone will trigger a sea change in investor sentiment towards silver, a metal that has been a lagger for much of the past fourteen years.
27:29
So here is the silver market imbalance. You can see the surplus in blue and the negative in red, okay. The persistent silver deficit is driven by a combination of shrinking supply and rising demand. On the supply side, global silver mine production has already peaked and has been declining over the past decade, as economically viable deposits are gradually exhausted. As that goes as time goes on, this crunch is only likely to worsen.
28:01
This chart here shows that global silver production from mining has stagnated and declined over the past decade due to the depletion of economically viable deposits, meaning that certain deposits is there, but just too expensive to pull out of the ground. Right? If you're a miner and it costs you because of all the the the rock you to, you know, kind of dig up and break up and sort through and process, it might cost you $60 an ounce to pull an ounce of silver out of the ground. Well, it's not worth it if silver's only worth 50 an ounce. At the same time, demand for physical silver has skyrocketed across multiple sectors with the biggest driver being the surge in solar panel manufacturing.
28:37
As the world shifts away from fossil fuels towards renewable energies, this trend is only on its only in its early stages. Silver demand for photovoltaic solar panel applications alone has nearly tripled over the past four years, increasing by an astonishing 143,000,000 ounces. With global efforts to expand clean energy accelerating, this demand is set to grow even further. It's not even getting into all the robotics, AI, military uses. This is just looking at silver demand for solar.
29:10
Although investment demand for silver has been relatively subdued for much of the past decade, I expect it to rise significantly as silver's bull market continues to strengthen. This is particularly liking how the spot prices surpass the key psychological level of $50 which marked the peak of the last two major silver bull markets in 1980 and 2011. The current breakout is still in its early stages, but it signals that history is being made in the silver market. I believe significantly stronger investment demand for physical silver is on the way, particularly from American ETFs, which have only recently begun accumulating silver at a gradual pace. For example, the iShares Silver Trust SLV, the largest US silver ETF increased its physical holdings from four seventeen million ounces to four ninety six million ounces over the past two years.
29:55
That's a modest 19% rise, which falls far short of the 160% surge in silver's price over the same period. I expect that gap to close soon as it does, it should intensify the existing physical silver shortages, not only in London, but also in New York in the New York futures market. Another important factor to consider is the current physical in the current physical shortage, and this is working into the paper contracts, is the extreme imbalance between paper silver and the actual silver physical supply. At present, there are an estimated three sixty ounces of paper silver, including ETFs, futures, and other derivatives for every single ounce of physical silver. This massive disparity significantly increases the risk of a sharp, short, short, sorry, a sharp, short squeeze, which I believe is going to eventually occur during the course of this powerful silver bull market.
30:49
Now, look at the wording here, the risk of a sharp, short squeeze. Okay, go back to here to Tyler Durden saying, silver is going to 150 in the very near future, likely by a single event squeeze, not a trend, echoing the same exact thing that he's saying here. Okay. This is why, again, I don't have a crystal ball, but based on what these guys are saying, you could see silver, it could be over the course of a couple of weeks, a couple of months, you could see silver triple, double, triple, quadruple in price as they're presenting here. So he says again, the massive disparity significantly increases the risk of a sharp short squeeze, which I believe is going to eventually occur during the course of this powerful silver bull market.
31:39
In such a scenario, holders of paper silver will be forced to scramble for the extremely limited supply of physical metal in order to meet contractual obligations. This would cause the price of paper silver products to collapse, while physical silver prices will skyrocket to extraordinary levels, reaching at least $700 per ounce. And that's my belief too. You've heard a lot of people like Cliff High's talk about $600 silver. I've heard a lot of silver experts talk about $500 $600 even a thousand dollar silver.
32:08
Now it seems kind of crazy before, but if you look at this and you look at these ratios, it's like, yeah, what happens if all these people holding physical silver or sorry, holding paper silver, as he says, will be forced to scramble for the extremely limited supply of physical metal in order to meet contractual obligations because up until now their Ponzi scheme has been able to exist. They've made it work. They've kept it in balance. They've always made sure they had enough physical to meet the demands of those who needed a physical, and they kept the confidence in the paper strong enough so people would be content holding their paper silver. But that's ending.
32:45
People are losing confidence in this system, and all these indicators are showing us that. So again, he says this will cause the price of paper silver products to collapse while physical silver prices will skyrocket to extraordinary levels, reaching at least several $100 per ounce. I agree. This is why I keep buying silver. Right?
33:07
Because if I can buy this silver I I just bought this you know, just sent a check out today in the mail for another, what was it, 40 ounces or 50 ounces of just one ounce rounds. I think I was paying close over $50 an ounce. It's crazy. It's like, yeah. Wow.
33:21
You're buying it at the height? Like, that's silly, Seth. It's like, no. Not if you understand what's happening in the market because that money could get that that value could in, say, three, four, five months could triple or quadruple versus what's my dollar doing sitting in my bank account? It's losing value.
33:37
So to me, it's like it's a no brainer. So here's your little pie chart. This is the ratio of paper silver to physical silver three sixty to one. What I believe will greatly contribute to the upcoming silver price surge, the scramble for physical silver, and collapse of paper silver products is the eventual unwinding of the large net short positions in COMEX silver futures by swap dealers, primarily the trading desk of bullion banks such as JPMorgan and UBS. So these banks, the JPMorgan as an example, have massive short positions, which we'll get into.
34:12
And what happens every time silver increases by a dollar, how much money these banks lose, it hurts the banks when the silver price goes up. He says, I believe those short positions are the result of a deliberate effort to suppress the price of silver. In the process, they amassed a massive net short position of 43,000 futures contracts equivalent to two seventy two million ounces silver, which is nearly one third of the annual global silver production. It's a key thing in understanding how they've kept the price of silver down through these massive short positions. Basically, they keep betting on the prices that were not going up.
34:48
What's even more astonishing is how much of the short position in silver futures is naked, meaning it isn't backed by physical silver, it's merely paper silver being dumped onto the market to suppress prices. However, as silver's bull market heats up, it's likely to trigger a wave of short covering which occurs when traders who have bet against an asset through short selling are forced to buy it back as prices rise in order to limit their losses. As the price climbs, these traders become increasingly desperate to close their positions further fueling another route fueling the rally, which basically means that I'll give my kind of very limited basic understanding of how these short positions work, especially a naked short where you're not even you're just kind of just purely imaginary. But let's just say that silver is worth $40 an ounce. Okay?
35:36
And let's say I wanna have a short position on that. So if I understand correctly, how it would work is let's just say you have a 100 a 100 ounces of that. I will borrow that 100 ounces for you from you at $40 an ounce. And I will say, hey. I will, I will pay it back.
35:52
I'll pay this I'll borrow it at that price at $40 an ounce. I'll pay it back to you in the future. Now if I think that if I think that silver is gonna go down say I think silver's gonna drop to $30 an ounce, but I borrowed it at 40 from you. If silver then goes down to $30 an ounce, I can take my money, I can buy it at $30 an ounce to pay you back, and I make that difference, basically. It's a way I may not explain it very well, but it's basically a way that you're betting against the dropping of a price.
36:25
But what happens is, if I borrow it at $40 an ounce, and then silver then goes up to say 50 a month later, I have to then pay it back to you. I have to go buy it at $50 an ounce to pay it back to you at 40 an ounce. So then I'm losing that money. Okay. So what he's saying though is that as that price difference grows, as silver keeps going up and it gets further away from their short positions, they're gonna have to scramble to buy that silver back to then sell it to get out of their short because they're losing money every time.
36:55
As he continues, he says, if the buying pressure is intense enough, it could even lead to a full blown short squeeze dramatically amplifying silver's upward momentum. Given the size of their short position, bullion banks stand to lose a pro this is crazy. Because of how much their short positions are. Bullion banks stand to lose approximately $272,000,000 million dollars for every $1 increase in the price of silver. That's crazy.
37:24
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38:24
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38:58
Now just imagine what will happen as silver climbs another $10.20 dollars or more beyond the key $50 level it has just surpassed. And here's a chart showing the short contracts. So he says all the factors I've discussed, including the physical shortage silver shortage in London, the dwindling above ground structural silver deficit, strong demand but dwindling supply, and now a surge of investor interest and demand have finally pushed silver above the critical $50 level in the past couple of days. Many of these new investors are part of a younger generation that is not battle scar like the older generations who experienced silver's past disappointments in 1980 or 2011. Of course, this breakout needs to hold in order for the bullish thesis to remain intact.
39:45
However, it's likely to do so for many reasons discussed in my recent report, including the fact that silver at $25 in 2025 is much cheaper in real terms than it was at the nominal level in 1980 and 2011, if you look at inflation. Okay, continuing. Now that silver has broken above the long standing $50 level, it has confirmed the breakout for the massive cup and handle pattern that dates all the way back to 1960s. So you see this right here, this is what you call the cup and handle. You'll see this chart everywhere from the silver people.
40:18
You can see that there's the kind of big cup right here, and then there's the handle. And a lot of people are saying that once it breaks out of the cup and handle, you're gonna see a massive explosion in price, which is what he's showing here is that $50 was that critical resistance level, and is now broken out of that. So I believe the outcome, I believe that outcome is likely for several reasons, including the fact that silver remains quite undervalued, and because of the upcoming failure of the paper silver market, that failure will result in a scramble for extremely scarce physical silver making the current shortage in London seem like a walk in the park in comparison. In my view, what we are witnessing now is a precursor to that much larger event. There you go, there's your, cup handle illustration chart.
41:06
To summarize, the physical silver shortage in London, also known as the silver squeeze is part of a broader process in which silver is finally coming into its own and gaining the recognition is long deserved. For years, it was overlooked and undervalued as investors chased flashier assets such as cryptosuch as crypto and tech stocks. I believe that many investors who previously ignored silver are now beginning to take notice and will increasingly flood into it. In a world glutted with overpriced and overhyped investments, silver remains one of the few assets that is still genuinely undervalued. This shift in perception and demand will send its price soaring, rewarding those of us who had the conviction to get in early.
41:45
And I'd like to make a point here is that right now, it's still getting in early. It's not like, oh, I didn't buy it at $25 an ounce. No. Buying silver like, again, I'll give you a quick I'm not a financial adviser. Do your own research.
42:00
Okay? There's, like, all the disclaimers that, you know, don't sue me if you buy some silver, and it it doesn't go up as as I think it will. But I personally believe that buying it at $50 an ounce is getting in early. I mean, honestly, I think that we could see, maybe even next year, we could see silver crossing in the triple digits, maybe even well into the triple digits. Next couple years, we could see silver at $500 an ounce.
42:26
It could be a thousand bucks an ounce. Like, if you look at this information here, you can see, like, what happens if that paper market collapses? What happens if a lot of these people that are holding those paper contracts are all of a sudden they wanna go get silver? That's why people have referred to silver as unobtainium, which I'll be getting into showing after this that there's actually people are having a lot of heart a a great struggle getting silver, which we'll be getting into. Okay.
42:50
He has some other information there, and as he's kind of rounding out. Again, so just that's basically the end of it. So this again is called the Bubble Bubble Report. It's a paid post, I subscribed to it, I think it's $25 a month. Very, very good.
43:03
Jesse Colombo, that right there, there's information, his information. Okay. So it's called thebubblebubble.substack.com. You can go and you can subscribe there. Hi, look at there.
43:15
See, David Jensen subscribes. How funny is that? I follow David Jensen, David Jensen is following him. So, very good information there. So continuing, as I showed you before, right, this chart here.
43:29
Now it makes sense, doesn't it? I showed you this chart, this guy saying three sixty paper contracts for every one ounce of physical silver. Now continue talking because there's a lot more things compounding this. India is a key driver. Silver shortage goes global.
43:45
India is now a key driver making the price of silver unstoppable. The physical silver squeeze just escalated dramatically. India, the world's largest importer of silver, is now facing an even more extreme shortage in London. The evidence, the three major Indian silver ETFs has suspended new creations. Spot premiums hit 17% versus futures in India, which versus the 1% in London.
44:11
Indian buyers are paying $200 over plus a kilogram over the global price for immediate delivery. Why this matters for London? India imports 80% of its silver. With Chinese exports constrained, Indian buyers are now competing directly with London for scarce physical metal. So the domino effect.
44:29
The LBMA, the London Bullion Market Association, leased rates still at panic levels, 27% for one month. US Mint production down 80%. Royal Canadian Mint halted large bar production. Royal Mint restricting Britannia sales. The bottom line, we're witnessing a synchronized global physical silver squeeze.
44:47
When the world's largest importers can't get metal at any price price, the paper pricing mechanism breaks. It's a systemic failure in the making. Continuing. This is from Bolian Star. Silver supply chain is breaking.
45:04
So what we're seeing now is that major refineries are no longer delivering. So, Heraeus, a major global refiner is no longer committing to delivery dates. So existing orders were are at now one to two month estimated delivery, mid November to early December. New orders are queue position only, there's no delivery commitment. Simply put, they'll produce bars when they can source the metal, if they can source the metal.
45:27
Major refineries cannot guarantee delivery, let that sink in. Major refineries are not able to guarantee delivery. There is a global shortage of silver that is unraveling here, and the whole market is breaking because of it. Again, the Royal Mint has restricted sales of its one ounce gold and silver Britannias. In a dealer update today, the Mint cited, quote, unprecedented silver lease rates exceeding 90% as the reason why the wholesale sales of their popular silver Britannia coins are being limited.
46:00
Gold Britannias have also been placed on allocation, reflecting intense investor demand across both metals. Physical supply tightness has reached the sovereign level mince. Refiners and wholesalers are struggling to source levels of metal. Is the wholesale silver market starting to seize up? Alright, so this is showing people this is in Sydney, right?
46:21
Now we're lucky here in America. If we're unlucky, we're lucky. We're lucky because the general public has not caught on to this, like in a lot of other countries. In America, you can still get a hold of silver. It's drying up, but you can still find silver.
46:34
The research right here is showing. This guy posted says, Weimar Republic vies as Sydney's cue to buy gold extends Tuesday and Wednesday as metal hit another record high. These are people lining up to buy gold in Australia. Right, here's in our post. This is, Tyler Durden again.
46:50
When money dies, these are cues for people buying gold in Hong Kong from a normal shop in the IFC mall, which is one of big shopping malls there. So people in other countries, a lot of other places, actually their online bullion sales, you know, Japan, Indonesia, a lot of Asian countries, you just can't buy it online, sold out, sold out, sold out. And here's what's crazy. So China, so physical bars on jd.com are now selling for $108 to $128 an ounce, nearly two times the global spot. What's just showing here is that Xuibei's markets, Xuibei market's largest online trading platform, Rongtong Gold, has stopped selling silver sheets.
47:31
China's largest e commerce, jd.com, has almost all merchants take all merchants taking down raw silver. Only one is for sale with a price of a $108 an ounce. A small bar, a $128 an ounce. This is what this is what people are paying online for raw silver, the straight same thing as this poor bar right here in China. So this is the there's price discovery happening over there.
47:56
So it's only a matter of time before this starts kinda shifting over into the West. Because the Chinese are smart. The Chinese, the Indians I used to do a lot of business over in Hong Kong with Chinese and Indians. They understand gold and silver. They every family there owns gold and silver.
48:08
It's just part of the part of the culture. They know that's real money. It's just the West. We've been sold the lie. We've been sold the dollar bill.
48:14
The right? This is the, you know, the greenback. We've been convinced your $4.00 1 k and the stock market get rich. Nope. Not over there in Asia.
48:22
Of course, they do that, but they've been stacking silver. They've been stacking gold. If you get married, your wedding dowry is gold jewelry. It's all 23, 24 carat. Put it aside, this is what's happening.
48:34
Okay. Bullion star another post, record daily orders. Says, Yesterday, we saw our highest daily transaction count ever. Busiest day in Bullionstar's history, a major, major Bullion dealer. Customers lined up before opening, Bullion center packed all day, continuous restocking required.
48:53
While we remain well stocked, we're noticing tightening wholesale supply, the supply chain stress is real and spreading. Both metals seeing unprecedented retail demand, this is a Western company. So you're seeing it. You're seeing it. It's a very important post here from WallStreetMath.
49:12
He says, Gold is at $4,200 and silver at $52 both in record territory. Don't sell, buy and hold for the next currency. The US currency has failed three times in US history. It is plausible that it could happen again. You want to own assets that will have value in the next currency, just my opinion.
49:32
It's a very, very important point. Is that if all of your assets are sitting in a dollar denominated account, your savings, stock market, these are accounts that could be wiped out. Not trying to make you fearful here, I'm trying to just paint the picture of what's going on and explain what he's saying here. He's saying the US currency has failed three times in history. It's plausible that it can happen again.
49:56
We're seeing a lot of the indicators. That's also an important part of all this. The rising price of gold and silver are a direct reflection of the dropping confidence in the US dollar. So you're saying you want to own assets that will have value in the next currency, which is so important. You wanna have assets that if there is hyperinflation, if the dollar starts to really collapse, what whatever happens, you want to own assets that will retain their value.
50:28
In fact, a lot you know, gold and silver, when there's those kinds of crazy economic things happening, the price skyrockets during that time. So again, final tweet, then we're gonna wrap up here. This guy says, $4,200 gold isn't an investment decision. It's a currency crisis warning. Central banks don't rush to gold because they think it'll go up.
50:49
They rush to gold because they know their currency is going down. And if central banks are scared, you should be terrified. It's an important point. If you look at again, I don't have the charts to show you for today. I've covered a lot though.
51:05
Central banks, sovereign banks have been buying gold like crazy. They have been buying gold hand over fist in record levels we've never seen before. He makes a point here. They're not doing it because they think that gold's gonna go up in value. They do it because their currency is going down.
51:26
And if central banks are scared, you should be terrified. So this this is what I believe that we're witnessing here, everyone. We're witnessing a massive, massive shift in the global economic system. The fiat currencies, the debt based system is coming to its conclusion, and people are seeing it. They're seeing that all this paper and debt, it's cracking.
51:51
The Ponzi scheme is cracking, and the more that it cracks, it's like a boat. It's like a boat that has cracks in the hull. There's water coming through, and everyone is seeking dry land because they know the boat's gonna sink. The dry land is physical. This is the dry land.
52:07
So people around the world that's what's underpinning this entire thing in my own humble opinion, is that the paper, the fiat systems, the global, the debt based system with, you know, hundreds of trillions of dollars in debt, the system is breaking. The system is breaking. And when it breaks breaks, a lot of people will lose everything. So people are rushing around the world. They're rushing to convert their assets into physical, into the land.
52:36
The boat's got doesn't matter how nice and fancy the boat is and how nice the food is and how nice your cabin is on the big yacht. The boat is sinking, and people are rushing to get into physical. They're seeking safety. It's an insurance policy. Now some people are doing it as investment thinking, hey, if I can buy silver for $50 an ounce, if it doubles or triples or quadruples, I'll make a lot of money.
52:57
Oh, yeah, that's the case. That's true. That's one of the reasons why I have it. It's like, it'd be awesome if it goes up. But that's not the main driver.
53:04
The main driver is because I don't trust our current system. I don't trust our current global economic system. I don't trust the fiat currency. I don't trust the dollar. I don't trust cryptocurrency.
53:11
I don't trust the stock market. I trust this, this is to me, this is my security. So if everything, you know, stays normal and whatever, and you know, there's no kind of big upset or reset and okay great, it's still been a good investment, it's doubled in value, I'll be happy. But if that stuff happens, if all of these signs and indicators that we're seeing actually play out and we do see a massive global global monetary reset, and they try bringing in central bank digital currency and all that kind of stuff. That's why I own this.
53:49
This is the lifeboat. That's how I look at it. So that's it. That is the conclusion. I hope that wasn't too technical for you.
53:57
I tried my best to dumb it down for myself, which means hopefully it was dumbed down for you. But this is this is why, again, is why when people say, are you still buying silver? And it's like, so so sad? What do you recommend? It's like, this is it.
54:10
This is it. It's a lifeboat. It's insurance. It's dry land when all the boats are sinking. To me, that's what silver and gold are.
54:19
If you say the difference between silver and gold, personally, I prioritize silver over gold. I think silver has a lot more, has a lot higher of a ceiling it can get to. So say gold, say triples in price the next three years, silver could go by 10 times in price. That's why I'm much more weighted towards silver. So in conclusion, if you have bought silver, say you followed my my advice couple years ago, and you're now swatching your the value of your silver has gone up 50 or 60 or 70%, great.
54:49
I'm glad that I haven't led you astray, honestly. If you're now feeling the urge to get more silver, especially silver, again, I'm I'm more silver over gold currently, great. It look. If you have someone that you can trust, perfect. So I'll say, be very, very cautious when buying silver.
55:06
Be very cautious. Be very suspicious of small pawn shops and coin dealers. Maybe you know them, you've you've bought and sold for thirty years, fantastic. But be very cautious. There's a lot of fake out there.
55:17
I used to have a business buying gold and silver from people from the public. It's crazy how much fake gold and silver came across my counter. Even stuff like fake gold coins had a thick layer of gold on the outside, that if if you do a surface test, it's real gold. It's actually filled with it's got tungsten inside, same weight. So be very, very cautious.
55:37
If you are looking for someone, if you want my advice, say you say, hey, Seth, look, I don't have anybody I can buy from, they pull up for you. If that's the case, I recommend Noble Gold. This is if I have friends and family that come to me and say, look, Seth, I wanna get silver and gold. I'm ready for it. I send them to Noble Gold.
55:54
Call him Plume. He's a good friend of mine. I've I've worked with him for years. They have very fair pricing. It's not bargains.
56:00
There's no bargains in gold and silver unless it's fake. You want fair and honest. They're fair. They're honest. They're good people, and they are the best in the business, especially if you're doing an IRA or a four zero one k transfer.
56:12
They are the experts at it. So if you wanna transfer over some of your IRA, some of your four zero one k, wanna figure out to avoid the penalties and everything, they're the best in the industry. So if you go to goldwithseth.com, and that link will also be in the description for the show, goldwithseth.com is where you can access his his information, or just give him a call. The phone number is (877) 646-5347. I actually before I did this show, I called them.
56:40
Actually, I I texted my guy there, my good friend over there, Fernando. Shout out to Mr. Fernando. And I made sure I said, Hey, do you guys still have silver in stock? I'm seeing a lot of dealers are not, they're out of silver.
56:51
I said, Do you guys still have silver in stock? He says, Yep, we do. He says, We can, we have it in stock, and we can get ahold of what we need to fulfill an order. So I could now maybe in two days, it's gonna be a different story. So I wouldn't now's not the time to sit sit back and wait on this.
57:04
This is the decision time is now. They still have it in stock. Goldwithseth.com. (877) 646-5347 to get ahold of him. The time is now.
57:18
The time is now. So hopefully that was good for you. Hopefully, you enjoyed this show. I love this stuff. I I especially because I I own Silver.
57:25
I've a Silverbug for the last, you know, over a decade. So to me, this is great. I'm watching all this stuff happening. Like, oh, This sounds you know, this is fantastic. But it's also kinda scary because it means our system is changing rapidly.
57:35
That's it's kinda scary. But anyway, thank you for watching the show. If you enjoyed the show, please let me know in the comments. Let me know. I read all the comments.
57:44
I don't always respond to them. I'm not good at responding to people. Even my good friends that text me, I take five days to get back to them. But I do read everything. Try to appreciate.
57:51
Make sure you hit that like that like button, and the best thing you can do is to share this with a friend. So if you got a friend or family member, say your your husband is kind of like, I'm not really big into gold and silver, show him this. I I hope that I've put together a good presentation to help you educate someone who's not really up to this stuff, doesn't really understand it. And hopefully they can watch this and think, okay, you know what? You know what, Sue, you're right.
58:13
Okay, let's do it. Let's move some of our four zero one ks over. You got me. Alright, thank you so much for watching. Take care, and God bless.