Latest / The Financial Exchange Show / Markets Bounce, Oil Surges, and the Real Social Security Fix No One Wants
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- 1:06Speaker 1: Zada and Mike Armstrong.
- 1:17Speaker 2: Chuck, Mike and talker with you here as we kick
- 1:22Speaker 2: off the end of March. Just about done with it.
- 1:27Speaker 2: March is never great month. It's not my favorite, to
- 1:30Speaker 2: be honest, I think a lot of that just stems
- 1:33Speaker 2: from the fact that.
- 1:35Speaker 3: March madness, you got Saint Patrick's Day, has a lot
- 1:37Speaker 3: to like.
- 1:38Speaker 4: Here's what I don't like.
- 1:40Speaker 2: Markets in March twenty twenty Yeah, sucked, twenty twenty one, fine,
- 1:46Speaker 2: twenty twenty two, sucked, twenty twenty three, sucked, twenty twenty four, fine,
- 1:52Speaker 2: twenty twenty five, sucked, twenty twenty six sucked. It's a
- 1:57Speaker 2: bad track record lately. It has been a bad track
- 1:59Speaker 2: record lately. It's I don't know what it is about March,
- 2:02Speaker 2: but it hasn't been good.
- 2:05Speaker 3: I'm gonna take three things.
- 2:06Speaker 5: Saint Patrick's Day, marsh madness, college hockey playoffs, and daylight savings,
- 2:13Speaker 5: time springing forward in March. Always like to see that.
- 2:16Speaker 3: Very very happy with the month of March generally.
- 2:18Speaker 4: So let me tell you about Saint Patrick's Day.
- 2:20Speaker 2: At this point, I'm not Irish, okay, but my wife
- 2:24Speaker 2: and I we had a My parents had offered to
- 2:28Speaker 2: babysit the night of I think was the sixteenth whatever,
- 2:31Speaker 2: that's Saturday, and my wife and I were like, oh,
- 2:35Speaker 2: like great, like should we we should like go out
- 2:37Speaker 2: to dinner somewhere, do something. And we started looking through like,
- 2:40Speaker 2: you know, restaurants, famous Irish food.
- 2:42Speaker 3: No, no, no, no, no.
- 2:43Speaker 2: We were looking at Boston and then we were like,
- 2:46Speaker 2: wait a minute, Saint Patti's Day is on Monday. Does
- 2:48Speaker 2: that mean that the parade is on Sunday? And of
- 2:51Speaker 2: course it was. Immediately both of us are like, Nope,
- 2:54Speaker 2: can't do that nowhere near boss. I don't want to
- 2:57Speaker 2: go anywhere near Boston this weekend, just because not twenty
- 3:00Speaker 2: two anymore. It's just not my scene at this point.
- 3:03Speaker 2: It was at a certain point in my life, but
- 3:06Speaker 2: right now it just doesn't I can't get there. So,
- 3:11Speaker 2: in any case, markets right now better than they were
- 3:14Speaker 2: on Thursday and Friday. The Dow Jones industrial averages up
- 3:17Speaker 2: three hundred and seventeen points, about three quarters of a percent,
- 3:20Speaker 2: the S and P five hundreds up about a third
- 3:22Speaker 2: of a percent twenty two points. The NASDAK composite only
- 3:26Speaker 2: have about a tenth of a percent about twenty one
- 3:28Speaker 2: points right now. So market's up, but not convincingly, just
- 3:34Speaker 2: you know, a little bit of a relief bounce after
- 3:37Speaker 2: two pretty bad days that we've had in markets. Bod
- 3:40Speaker 2: market is bouncing much more convincingly right now. Ten year
- 3:44Speaker 2: Treasury is down ten basis points to four point three
- 3:49Speaker 2: three eight, so after running up over the last week,
- 3:52Speaker 2: coming in significantly today. We'll see if there's any further
- 3:56Speaker 2: movement on that front, but that is going to help
- 3:59Speaker 2: mortgage rates that have as of this point spiked pretty significantly.
- 4:03Speaker 2: We're down just below six percent at the end of
- 4:06Speaker 2: February at six six' four as of the clothes On,
- 4:10Speaker 2: friday so maybe this gets us back down closer to
- 4:12Speaker 2: six and a, half but still a big move up
- 4:14Speaker 2: in the last. Month gold is up forty six ninety
- 4:17Speaker 2: outs to forty five thirty, nine and we've got crude
- 4:21Speaker 2: Oil West Texas intermediate is what do you what do
- 4:25Speaker 2: you make sure you got the gas price?
- 4:26Speaker 3: Average?
- 4:26Speaker 4: There, Oh, MICHAEL i GOT i, GOT i got all the.
- 4:29Speaker 2: Averages Crude Oil West Texts intermediate up two dollars and
- 4:32Speaker 2: thirty two cents a barrel to one on one ninety.
- 4:35Speaker 2: Six brent is up at one twelve sixty two right
- 4:38Speaker 2: now as, well triple a national average is it three
- 4:41Speaker 2: ninety nine based on the movement that we saw over the,
- 4:45Speaker 2: weekend and, today you're gonna be touching four dollars a
- 4:48Speaker 2: gallon nationally either tomorrow Or tuesday at the very.
- 4:52Speaker 3: Latest and those.
- 4:53Speaker 5: Diesel prices remain the relevant story for most of, us
- 4:56Speaker 5: with diesel prices up to five dollars forty two cents
- 4:59Speaker 5: a gallon after a month ago sitting around three seventy.
- 5:02Speaker 2: Five, Yeah and just to give you a sense on,
- 5:05Speaker 2: Diesel so there's an oil analyst WHO i follow ON
- 5:11Speaker 2: x who goes by the name Of Rory johnson because
- 5:13Speaker 2: that's his actual.
- 5:14Speaker 4: Name that's why he goes by.
- 5:16Speaker 2: It and here's the deal is when you look at
- 5:21Speaker 2: the cost of oil plus what's called the, crackspread which
- 5:24Speaker 2: is basically the difference in what you pay for the
- 5:29Speaker 2: crude product versus what the refiners are able to generate
- 5:32Speaker 2: on the refining process before selling it as. Diesel THE
- 5:37Speaker 2: us diesel wholesale market price right now is one hundred
- 5:39Speaker 2: and ninety dollars a barrel because the crackspread is seventy
- 5:42Speaker 2: seven in normal crackspread for diesel is generally in like
- 5:46Speaker 2: the teens to, twenties, twenties like high twenties is considered
- 5:49Speaker 2: high crackspread right now is seventy. Seven so there is
- 5:56Speaker 2: some stuff going on in in oil.
- 6:00Speaker 5: Markets, yeah that makes it again pretty difficult in some
- 6:05Speaker 5: parts of the world to have a functioning.
- 6:06Speaker 2: Economy you got diesel right. Now, again the big thing
- 6:08Speaker 2: is In. Brazil it is the soybean harvest right. Now
- 6:12Speaker 2: the truckers are, saying we're not gonna take the stuff
- 6:14Speaker 2: to the ports because they can't pay for it and
- 6:17Speaker 2: they don't have enough there's not enough money in you,
- 6:20Speaker 2: know the farms to be able to, say, okay we'll
- 6:21Speaker 2: pay more for the. Shipping Right, so you got all
- 6:24Speaker 2: these soybeans just sitting in the interior Of brazil and
- 6:27Speaker 2: people are, like what do we do with? Them you,
- 6:30Speaker 2: know we don't eat these. Things we send it to
- 6:34Speaker 2: others on boats and send them To. China we don't
- 6:36Speaker 2: know what to do with, them like it's not our,
- 6:38Speaker 2: food you. Know, Okay like, fine like what do we?
- 6:40Speaker 1: Do?
- 6:41Speaker 2: OKAY i guess they'll just sit. Here, so, yeah you
- 6:43Speaker 2: get diesel at five forty one and six Tenths that
- 6:46Speaker 2: is exactly forty cents off the all time high From
- 6:50Speaker 2: june of twenty. Two piece in The Wall Street journal
- 6:53Speaker 2: is another financial crisis lurking in private. Credit, Look i'm
- 6:59Speaker 2: NO i have a credit. Apologist those of you who
- 7:02Speaker 2: have listened to our show for any extended period of
- 7:04Speaker 2: time know THAT i got some problems with the asset
- 7:07Speaker 2: class even before problems started showing, up you, know late last.
- 7:11Speaker 2: Year is this like to, say like you're gonna have
- 7:15Speaker 2: a financial crisis LIKE o seven and through oh, nine
- 7:19Speaker 2: you need two. Things you need a giant, market and
- 7:23Speaker 2: you need a lot of stuff in that market to go.
- 7:25Speaker 5: Wrong so let's let's talk about just size comparisons. Here,
- 7:28Speaker 5: Now i'm gonna be the first three acknowledge that we
- 7:30Speaker 5: don't really know the size of THE us private credit.
- 7:34Speaker 5: Market but most of the you, know guesses That i've
- 7:38Speaker 5: seen are between one and a half and two trillion.
- 7:40Speaker 5: Dollars is that fair for you To i've seen up
- 7:43Speaker 5: to Six, yeah that'd be, Surprising but you, know you
- 7:46Speaker 5: know a lot of the stuff That i've seen is
- 7:47Speaker 5: around that one and a half. Range the total size
- 7:53Speaker 5: of the subprime loans back in that you know, timeframe
- 7:59Speaker 5: all of those im lums together were about one and
- 8:01Speaker 5: a half trillion.
- 8:02Speaker 3: Dollars, yes mean that was the value of the stuff
- 8:04Speaker 3: that was determined to eventually just be.
- 8:07Speaker 4: Garbage but it wasn't just.
- 8:08Speaker 2: The subprime that ended up blowing up like that was
- 8:12Speaker 2: like the, detonator every.
- 8:13Speaker 5: Thing the total mortgage backed security market was ten trillion. Dollars,
- 8:16Speaker 5: yes Then i'm not SMALLER us, economy, right and none
- 8:20Speaker 5: of that's inflation, Adjusted SO i keep going back to
- 8:24Speaker 5: the similarities here do, exist but the scale conversation is
- 8:31Speaker 5: a fair bit different from everything we can tell at the.
- 8:33Speaker 2: Moment, YEAH i, mean if you if you want to
- 8:38Speaker 2: like do the, math like just in terms of like
- 8:40Speaker 2: where THE us economy was at that, point it was
- 8:44Speaker 2: a fifteen trillion dollar economy in nominal terms today it's,
- 8:49Speaker 2: thirty so you're talking About, okay at most the biggest
- 8:55Speaker 2: scale that this debt gets to is and again REMEMBER
- 8:58Speaker 2: gdp is a.
- 8:59Speaker 4: Flow where is.
- 9:02Speaker 2: The amount of private credit out there is a, Stock
- 9:04Speaker 2: so comparing flows to stocks it doesn't quite work this,
- 9:06Speaker 2: way but just in general, sense think of it this.
- 9:09Speaker 2: Way back in that fifteen trillion dollar yuars, economy you
- 9:13Speaker 2: had ten trillion dollars of.
- 9:14Speaker 4: Mortgages to get a flow to a.
- 9:16Speaker 2: Flow the average payments on those let's call them five
- 9:18Speaker 2: percent at the, time maybe six, Percent, okay ten trillion.
- 9:22Speaker 2: Dollars you're talking six hundred billion dollars a year in
- 9:24Speaker 2: interest payments. Today you've got a thirty trillion dollar. Economy private.
- 9:29Speaker 2: Credit let's say it's the. Midpoint let's say it's like
- 9:31Speaker 2: a three trillion dollar. Thing even at ten, percent you're
- 9:36Speaker 2: talking three hundred billion dollars in. Interest the interest amount
- 9:41Speaker 2: is half of what it was in two thousand and,
- 9:44Speaker 2: nine and the economy is twice as. Big so from
- 9:47Speaker 2: a scale, perspective it just doesn't get. There you could
- 9:50Speaker 2: make a very good case that this is like a
- 9:52Speaker 2: quarter of the size of the mortgage market in relative,
- 9:55Speaker 2: terms comparing the interest payments TO GDP.
- 9:59Speaker 5: So and by the, way it does not touch the
- 10:02Speaker 5: retail average consumer in anywhere near the same way the
- 10:06Speaker 5: mortgage market.
- 10:06Speaker 2: Did, no you AND i are not going to default
- 10:09Speaker 2: on a private credit loan because we don't have, one
- 10:11Speaker 2: Right whereas back in you, know two thousand and, nine
- 10:14Speaker 2: out of the one hundred and forty million households at that,
- 10:17Speaker 2: time you, know sixty million of them had a.
- 10:19Speaker 5: Mortgage and in, FACT i don't think there's much about
- 10:22Speaker 5: a default in private credit that would make a bank
- 10:24Speaker 5: less likely to lend me money for a.
- 10:27Speaker 2: Mortgage but can there be problems in the business world
- 10:30Speaker 2: because of?
- 10:31Speaker 6: It?
- 10:31Speaker 2: Sure but DO i think there probably are some problems
- 10:35Speaker 2: in financial credit beyond in private, credit beyond what we've seen.
- 10:39Speaker 2: TODAY i really struggle to be, like, hey it's going
- 10:43Speaker 2: to be just like two thousand and.
- 10:44Speaker 5: Eight we definitely seem to be in the era, though
- 10:46Speaker 5: where it's being scrutinized a lot more and so therefore
- 10:51Speaker 5: a lot more is being found. Out, so for, example
- 10:53Speaker 5: a lot's been written about the software exposure in this,
- 10:55Speaker 5: space And Wall Street journal did a little bit of
- 10:58Speaker 5: looking into things, here and they make the claim that
- 11:01Speaker 5: in a number of, cases when the creators of these
- 11:05Speaker 5: private credit funds have been advertising their products and talking
- 11:08Speaker 5: about the industry, exposure they found The Wall Street journal
- 11:13Speaker 5: did they found, that you, know in many cases some
- 11:17Speaker 5: of these funds were dramatically under advertising their exposure to.
- 11:20Speaker 4: Software oh is that bad?
- 11:23Speaker 3: Today it?
- 11:24Speaker 5: Is six months ago it, wasn't but today it. Is
- 11:27Speaker 5: and that's the interesting piece of all this. Is it
- 11:29Speaker 5: does change very. Rapidly six months, ago the only thing
- 11:32Speaker 5: that investors seemed to care about was are there is
- 11:35Speaker 5: there a bunch of fraud in this? Space sure that's
- 11:37Speaker 5: going to go belly. Up now fast forward six, months
- 11:42Speaker 5: all of a, sudden everyone is terrified of are these
- 11:44Speaker 5: companies you loaned money to about to be decimated by
- 11:47Speaker 5: advances and artificial?
- 11:48Speaker 4: Intelligence to take a quick. Break when we come, back
- 11:51Speaker 4: we'll do trivia right after.
- 11:52Speaker 1: This stay connected between. Shows Follow The Financial exchange On
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- 12:00Speaker 1: england and around the. Country face is The Financial. Exchange,
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- 12:14Speaker 1: need to. Know face is The Financial.
- 12:16Speaker 7: Exchange The Financial exchange is incredibly proud to be a
- 12:27Speaker 7: partner of The Disabled American Veterans department Of. Massachusetts planning
- 12:30Speaker 7: as well underway for the twenty twenty SIX dav five.
- 12:34Speaker 7: K the events sold out in record time last, year
- 12:37Speaker 7: SO i had TO dav fivek Dot boston for all
- 12:40Speaker 7: the information about how you can participate This november or
- 12:44Speaker 7: make a donation to support our Great american. Heroes your
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- 12:51Speaker 7: and the nation's first dav ledhousing initiative providing homes for
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- 13:05Speaker 7: Boston time for trivia here in The Financial exchange and
- 13:07Speaker 7: on this. Day back back in eighteen sixty, seven THE
- 13:11Speaker 7: us Purchased alaska From russia for seven point two million
- 13:16Speaker 7: dollars about two cents per. Acre so our trivia question,
- 13:20Speaker 7: today what year Was alaska admitted.
- 13:23Speaker 4: As a state to The.
- 13:25Speaker 7: Union once, again what year Was alaska admitted as a
- 13:29Speaker 7: state to The? Union be the fourth person today to
- 13:33Speaker 7: text us at six one seven three six two thirteen
- 13:36Speaker 7: eighty five with correct answer along with keyword, trivia and
- 13:40Speaker 7: you win A Financial Exchange SHOW t.
- 13:42Speaker 3: Shirt once.
- 13:42Speaker 7: Again the fourth correct response to text us to the
- 13:46Speaker 7: number six one seven three six to two thirteen eighty
- 13:49Speaker 7: five with correct answer along with keyword, Trivia we'll win
- 13:52Speaker 7: THAT t. Shirt see complete contest rules At Financial Exchange
- 13:56Speaker 7: show dot. Com do you know who Bought.
- 13:58Speaker 4: Alaska like which?
- 14:02Speaker 3: President, no which?
- 14:03Speaker 4: Person, Nope, TUCKER.
- 14:07Speaker 7: I don't.
- 14:07Speaker 4: Know William, SEWARD Us secretary Of state back in eighteen sixty,
- 14:15Speaker 4: SEVEN i think it Was, collquially it was known As
- 14:20Speaker 4: seward's folly because everyone thought that it was useless back.
- 14:23Speaker 3: Then has it turned out n chock full of?
- 14:26Speaker 4: Gold look at all this. Stuff there's there's, oil there's.
- 14:29Speaker 4: Gold LIKE GOLLYE. G. Wilkers who?
- 14:31Speaker 3: Knew cid he die before anybody?
- 14:34Speaker 2: Knew, yes seven point two million dollars that's all we
- 14:37Speaker 2: paid for. For, like, HOWEVER i think it was like
- 14:40Speaker 2: five hundred and eighty thousand square miles or whatever it.
- 14:42Speaker 4: Is, yeah, so uh, yeah.
- 14:45Speaker 2: Don't judge a state by its, cover is the uh
- 14:50Speaker 2: the phrase that came out of. That let's talk a
- 14:53Speaker 2: little bit about this piece from The Wall. Street i'm,
- 14:56Speaker 2: sorry From. Bloomberg it's titled one hundred thousand Socials Security
- 15:00Speaker 2: benefits and too much is too? Much, Sorry i'll work
- 15:04Speaker 2: on my reading. Tomorrow here's the deal is that point
- 15:09Speaker 2: zero five percent of retired couples in the next couple
- 15:14Speaker 2: of years are potentially going to have combined social security.
- 15:18Speaker 2: Benefits the top one hundred thousand dollars per year if
- 15:22Speaker 2: they've earned the maximum salary under The Social security income
- 15:28Speaker 2: limits since nineteen ninety. One and there is a proposal
- 15:33Speaker 2: from The committee for A Responsible Federal budget that would
- 15:37Speaker 2: cap individual benefits at fifty thousand dollars if claimed at
- 15:40Speaker 2: a normal retirement, age or sixty two thousand if they
- 15:43Speaker 2: delayed until age, seventy and The committee for the for
- 15:48Speaker 2: A Responsible Federal budget would also not adjust those numbers for.
- 15:53Speaker 2: Inflation and so basically, saying, hey how much would this
- 15:58Speaker 2: end up reducing The Social security? Shortfall and THE crfb
- 16:02Speaker 2: says it would reduce it by about twenty. Percent, okay
- 16:06Speaker 2: so it doesn't cover all of. It so, look, ultimately.
- 16:09Speaker 5: The question is not whether or not one hundred thousand
- 16:12Speaker 5: dollars is too much In Social security. Benefits it's not
- 16:14Speaker 5: a relevant question in my. OPINION i think everybody's going
- 16:18Speaker 5: to have a different viewpoint on. That and most, certainly
- 16:20Speaker 5: if you worked your whole career and maximized Your Social
- 16:23Speaker 5: security benefits and waited until age, seventy and both you
- 16:26Speaker 5: and your spouse did, so you're probably not going to
- 16:28Speaker 5: feel that it is too much because you paid into
- 16:31Speaker 5: the system for a heck of a long. Time the
- 16:33Speaker 5: relevant question is will this, change along with a whole
- 16:39Speaker 5: bunch of other changes that need to be, made shore
- 16:42Speaker 5: up the program for the foreseeable.
- 16:44Speaker 3: Future so here's the.
- 16:45Speaker 2: Thing THE crfb actually has a, website as most organizations
- 16:49Speaker 2: do these, days and on their website they have a.
- 16:52Speaker 2: Tool it's called The, reformer an interactive tool to Fix
- 16:55Speaker 2: Social security and lets you do. Is it gives you
- 16:59Speaker 2: three different tabs that you can play around. With you
- 17:01Speaker 2: can play around with what they call benefit formula, adjustments
- 17:05Speaker 2: where you can like slow benefit growth and increase the retirement,
- 17:08Speaker 2: age modify cola's things like. That they have a revenue
- 17:12Speaker 2: side of things where you can change the payroll tax,
- 17:14Speaker 2: rate or apply the payroll tax to a different set of.
- 17:19Speaker 2: Incomes you could broaden the payroll tax. Base you could
- 17:22Speaker 2: do all these. Things and then they have another benefits,
- 17:25Speaker 2: thing which is you could change like how many years
- 17:27Speaker 2: you need to work to get maximum, benefits make changes
- 17:31Speaker 2: to eligibility criteria means testing things like. That, okay and
- 17:35Speaker 2: so basically through this you can figure, out, okay what
- 17:38Speaker 2: combination of things ends up getting us the. Solution it's
- 17:42Speaker 2: like it the math is really. Easy, actually Like Social,
- 17:45Speaker 2: security even at this late you know, stage with you,
- 17:48Speaker 2: know seven years until the program you, know has to
- 17:52Speaker 2: go through mandatory cuts based on the current way that
- 17:55Speaker 2: it's set, up you can still fix it by like
- 17:59Speaker 2: doing a a very small number of things that ultimately
- 18:03Speaker 2: none of them are going to be, popular, because like,
- 18:06Speaker 2: you you can't fix it by just keeping it the.
- 18:08Speaker 5: Same i'd be fascinated to know how many people have
- 18:10Speaker 5: actually played with this tool. BEFORE i has got to
- 18:12Speaker 5: be a really small portion of THE us Popular i've.
- 18:15Speaker 2: Done so here is my fix For Social security that
- 18:19Speaker 2: fixes quite literally one hundred and three percent of the.
- 18:22Speaker 2: Problem and, AGAIN i know that none of you are
- 18:25Speaker 2: going to like, this but that's that's. Okay i'm at
- 18:27Speaker 2: least proposing a solution unlike the four hundred and thirty
- 18:29Speaker 2: Five congressmen and one hundred senators that currently sit In WASHINGTON.
- 18:33Speaker 2: Dc number, One i've raised the full retirement age to
- 18:37Speaker 2: age sixty, nine then index it to life. Expectancy that,
- 18:40Speaker 2: SUCKS i, know but that takes care of thirty six
- 18:42Speaker 2: percent of the gap right off the. Bat the second
- 18:46Speaker 2: thing THAT i would do IS i would eliminate the
- 18:49Speaker 2: maximum payroll. Tax the maximum amount of income for which
- 18:54Speaker 2: the payroll tax is, collected but not give you any
- 18:57Speaker 2: additional benefit for. Anything so, basically right, now it's like
- 19:01Speaker 2: one hundred and seventy five thousand is the payroll tax,
- 19:04Speaker 2: base and anything above that you don't pay. It this
- 19:06Speaker 2: you would pay, it and you just don't get anything
- 19:09Speaker 2: if you're above. That that covers another sixty eight percent
- 19:12Speaker 2: those two, things one hundred and three percent of the
- 19:15Speaker 2: short fall is closed over the next seventy five.
- 19:17Speaker 6: Years.
- 19:18Speaker 4: Yep not very happy about, it but, like this is
- 19:21Speaker 4: what you.
- 19:21Speaker 5: Do and by the, way the, uh it won't happen
- 19:24Speaker 5: that way because all of the donors to major political
- 19:28Speaker 5: campaigns are affected by that second one that you.
- 19:31Speaker 2: Mentioned, correct they won't like. It so this is where
- 19:34Speaker 2: we stand on Social. Security no one's doing. Anything quick
- 19:36Speaker 2: break and we get the trivia answer.
- 19:38Speaker 1: Next bringing the latest financial news straight to your. Radio every.
- 19:46Speaker 1: Day it's The Financial exchange on The Financial Exchange Radio.
- 19:50Speaker 1: Network time now Full Wall Street watch tracking the, stocks the,
- 19:55Speaker 1: data and the headlines driving markets so far today right
- 19:59Speaker 1: here on the final Inchel Exchange Radio.
- 20:01Speaker 7: Network markets are modestly. Hired to begin the week After
- 20:04Speaker 7: President trump took to social media this, morning seeing THE
- 20:07Speaker 7: us is in serious discussions to end.
- 20:09Speaker 4: The operation In.
- 20:10Speaker 7: Iran trump also renewed his threat On iran's energy sites
- 20:13Speaker 7: if The strait Of hormuz is not immediately. Reopened right,
- 20:17Speaker 7: now The dow is up nearly nine tenths of a,
- 20:20Speaker 7: percent or three hundred and eighty six, POINTS smp five
- 20:23Speaker 7: hundred up nearly half a, Percent nasdak up two tenths
- 20:27Speaker 7: of a, Percent russed two thousand down six tenths of a,
- 20:29Speaker 7: percent Ten You're treasure realed down ten basis points at
- 20:33Speaker 7: four point three three two, percent and crude oil up
- 20:36Speaker 7: nearly three percent, higher trading right around one hundred and
- 20:40Speaker 7: two dollars a. Barrel aluminum company al Co is stock
- 20:43Speaker 7: jumping over eleven, percent falling reports Of iranian attacks of
- 20:48Speaker 7: critical infrastructure for metal in The Middle, east with traders
- 20:51Speaker 7: Betting alcoa could potentially benefit.
- 20:54Speaker 4: From the supplied.
- 20:55Speaker 7: Disruptions, meanwhile shares and wholesale food Distributor cisco tumble twelve
- 21:00Speaker 7: percent after the company agreed to Buy jetro restaurant, depot
- 21:05Speaker 7: and a deal valued at about twenty nine billion dollars
- 21:08Speaker 7: expected to close In cisco's twenty twenty seven fiscal third
- 21:12Speaker 7: quarter And CrowdStrike rising four percent after the cybersecurity company
- 21:16Speaker 7: was upgraded By Wolf research to, outperform saying it will
- 21:20Speaker 7: benefit from increased cyber risk FROM ai rather than have
- 21:24Speaker 7: its business model disrupted by the. Technology I'm Tucker silva
- 21:29Speaker 7: and that Is Wall street. Watching in the previous, segment
- 21:32Speaker 7: we asked you the trivia, question what year Was alaska
- 21:36Speaker 7: admitted as a state to The. Union i'll be nineteen fifty.
- 21:40Speaker 7: Nine dave And, hudson mass is our winner, today taking
- 21:43Speaker 7: home A Financial Exchange show t. Shirt congrats To. Dave
- 21:46Speaker 7: if we play trivia every day here on The Financial
- 21:49Speaker 7: Exchange see complete contest rules At Financial Exchange show dot.
- 21:53Speaker 4: Com do you guys have like a certain state where you?
- 21:55Speaker 2: Like that one totally doesn't fit WHEN i think it
- 22:00Speaker 2: became part of The United, states like either like way
- 22:02Speaker 2: earlier or way?
- 22:03Speaker 4: Later, no what you got for?
- 22:06Speaker 6: Me It's.
- 22:06Speaker 4: Oklahoma When oklahoma was the forty sixth state admitted to.
- 22:12Speaker 3: The, union that seems.
- 22:13Speaker 2: Surprising it wasn't until nineteen oh seven that it became a,
- 22:17Speaker 2: state which is like again kind of wild and just
- 22:21Speaker 2: like doesn't quite click with, Me but you, know you
- 22:23Speaker 2: figured it would have been again like all the surrounding.
- 22:26Speaker 2: States you, Know texas was in you, know mid eighteen,
- 22:29Speaker 2: Hundreds kansas is mid eighteen, Hundreds nevada's mid eighteen, hundreds Like,
- 22:34Speaker 2: nebraska like that whole area around it was mid eighteen.
- 22:37Speaker 3: Hundreds independence straight.
- 22:39Speaker 2: There i'm guessing it probably has to do With oklahoma's
- 22:42Speaker 2: history predominantly for most of the eighteen hundreds being A
- 22:45Speaker 2: Native american, reservation and probably like refusal to recognize as my. Guess,
- 22:49Speaker 2: yeah but it still is just wild to me that
- 22:54Speaker 2: it took until nineteen oh seven for it to gain.
- 22:57Speaker 4: Statehood New York.
- 22:59Speaker 2: Times check your target date, fund especially if you plan
- 23:02Speaker 2: to retire. Soon what's this talking, About mike and why
- 23:05Speaker 2: should people? Care, so first of, all what a target
- 23:07Speaker 2: date fund. Is if you have a four h ONE,
- 23:09Speaker 2: k you're probably pretty familiar with, them but you might
- 23:11Speaker 2: not know them as target date. Funds but generally, speaking
- 23:14Speaker 2: they are funds available inside a retirement. Plan usually they
- 23:19Speaker 2: have an interval of every five years where they target
- 23:23Speaker 2: a retirement date hence the, name and adjust the investment
- 23:27Speaker 2: allocation inside the funds automatically for, you rather than you
- 23:31Speaker 2: going and making any sort of investment, decisions why you
- 23:35Speaker 2: might want to take a look at. Them, well, one
- 23:39Speaker 2: this is just more general than specific target date. Funds
- 23:42Speaker 2: but if you are within a decade of, retirement you
- 23:45Speaker 2: might just want to be paying closer attention to how
- 23:47Speaker 2: your investments are. Allocated, generally, so DO i have the
- 23:52Speaker 2: appropriate amount of risk exposure within my retirement? Plan DO
- 23:57Speaker 2: i have a bucket of money THAT i KNOW i
- 23:59Speaker 2: can live off of for the first few years of
- 24:02Speaker 2: retirement If i'm not planning on Claiming Social security right?
- 24:05Speaker 2: Away these are all really relevant questions that are much
- 24:08Speaker 2: more relevant to the closer you are to retirement now
- 24:12Speaker 2: specific to target date funds for a. Moment, here, THEY i,
- 24:16Speaker 2: think for a good, reason are in retirement. Plans they
- 24:19Speaker 2: are a very simplified approach that the investment fiduciaries that
- 24:24Speaker 2: are attached to retirement plans can point to you to, say,
- 24:26Speaker 2: look at least we're doing something. Here, sure they can
- 24:30Speaker 2: also be in some cases pretty bad distribution tools for
- 24:36Speaker 2: somebody that is actually. Retired and here's the reason. Why
- 24:41Speaker 2: the whole benefit of diversification, one there's a few, benefits
- 24:45Speaker 2: but one of the big benefits to diversification is that
- 24:48Speaker 2: when things are going particularly poorly for one asset, class
- 24:51Speaker 2: you aren't forced into selling it just because you might need.
- 24:55Speaker 2: Money and that kind of doesn't work very well with
- 25:00Speaker 2: the target date, fund where you own one specific thing
- 25:04Speaker 2: for all of your different types of. Risk, yes and so,
- 25:08Speaker 2: yeah as an accumulation, tool you know it does it have, imperfections,
- 25:13Speaker 2: sure but, YEAH i can see why it's relied. Upon
- 25:16Speaker 2: when you're actually pulling money, out you don't have any
- 25:20Speaker 2: ability to go tell mister mutual fund, Manager, hey things
- 25:24Speaker 2: are looking pretty hairy right. Now why don't you, just you,
- 25:27Speaker 2: know take the cash out of the fund or the
- 25:29Speaker 2: government bonds that are in there and send me my.
- 25:32Speaker 2: Distribution that's not really how it. Works and so checking
- 25:36Speaker 2: in on this and better understanding these. Things the other
- 25:38Speaker 2: thing that a target date fund can't, do AND i would,
- 25:42Speaker 2: argue you, know the entire reason you have a financial
- 25:46Speaker 2: advisor in, place or a big chunk of.
- 25:48Speaker 3: The reason is how much DO i need to?
- 25:51Speaker 5: Save what's the magic dollar amount THAT i need to
- 25:54Speaker 5: have in this target date fund in order to have
- 25:57Speaker 5: a comfortable. Retirement what is the approach a bucket for
- 26:00Speaker 5: me to pull money? Out of the day THAT i.
- 26:02Speaker 5: RETIRE i know when people think about financial, advisors they
- 26:06Speaker 5: tend to think about investments for pretty obvious. Reasons they
- 26:09Speaker 5: tend to manage those, investments and that's the piece that
- 26:12Speaker 5: you see every. Day there have been study after study
- 26:15Speaker 5: that shows that the true value in a financial advisor
- 26:18Speaker 5: doesn't usually come from the investment, performance but rather all
- 26:22Speaker 5: the other things that go along with, it such as
- 26:24Speaker 5: investing on a tax efficient, basis doing the actual planning
- 26:27Speaker 5: so you know how much you need offering other ancillary
- 26:31Speaker 5: advice when they sometimes do around tax efficiency and estate
- 26:34Speaker 5: planning and things along those lines that you just don't
- 26:38Speaker 5: get from the average for a ONE k.
- 26:41Speaker 2: Plan one other thing THAT i do want to add
- 26:43Speaker 2: just in the conversation here is that there is in terms,
- 26:47Speaker 2: of you, know the positives of target date funds in some,
- 26:51Speaker 2: cases there's a lot of research that does show that
- 26:55Speaker 2: they typically do perform better than investors just trying to
- 26:59Speaker 2: pick their own four to WIN k. Options and the
- 27:01Speaker 2: reason why is actually kind of. Simple so there's a
- 27:04Speaker 2: study here From John, craycraft who's the director of financial
- 27:07Speaker 2: planning at a wealth management. Firm he says people do
- 27:10Speaker 2: at least ten percent worse on average than they would
- 27:12Speaker 2: in their auto and rolled target date funds if picking
- 27:15Speaker 2: their own. Investments and the reason why is not that
- 27:19Speaker 2: people are like horrible at you, know understanding like different
- 27:23Speaker 2: investments in this and. That, sure it's that most people
- 27:26Speaker 2: don't even get to that point what they typically. Do
- 27:29Speaker 2: and Again i've seen this just from seeing enough people
- 27:31Speaker 2: who have you, know invested in four or ONE k. Plans,
- 27:33Speaker 2: historically they you, know get their four to ONE k
- 27:37Speaker 2: plan investment selections and one of the columns in there
- 27:40Speaker 2: is like previous year, return and what they typically do
- 27:44Speaker 2: is they pick whatever did best in the last, year
- 27:47Speaker 2: not realizing that it's not like a guaranteed rate of
- 27:49Speaker 2: return or.
- 27:50Speaker 4: Anything and as we.
- 27:51Speaker 2: Talk about quite often on this, show what did best
- 27:55Speaker 2: in the last year or even the last ten years
- 27:58Speaker 2: is very rarely the thing that does best in the subsequent.
- 28:01Speaker 6: Period.
- 28:02Speaker 2: Uh if you, were you, know back in two thousand
- 28:04Speaker 2: and five and looking, at, Hey i'm gonna you, know
- 28:06Speaker 2: start this four oh ONE, k the best performing stuff
- 28:09Speaker 2: in the last decade was emerging, markets and then for
- 28:12Speaker 2: the next twenty years they sucked. Wind if you did
- 28:15Speaker 2: this back in twenty twenty, four at the end of
- 28:18Speaker 2: the year and, said, okay like, great like one hundred
- 28:21Speaker 2: PERCENT us markets is WHERE i should. Be, well you
- 28:23Speaker 2: missed the giant run up in international stocks last, year
- 28:27Speaker 2: and so these are the things where hey understanding like
- 28:31Speaker 2: how a four oh ONE k works and what the
- 28:33Speaker 2: investments are inside of, it at all different points along
- 28:36Speaker 2: your financial. Journey it's pretty important to have that context
- 28:41Speaker 2: so that you understand what's, happening.
- 28:42Speaker 3: Especially when you intend to start using the.
- 28:44Speaker 4: Money so, yeah because that's when it really starts to.
- 28:46Speaker 3: Matter if you.
- 28:47Speaker 5: Have those questions and you're curious about what a financial
- 28:49Speaker 5: advisor can do for you to improve your.
- 28:52Speaker 3: Scenario give us a.
- 28:53Speaker 5: Call eight hundred three nine three four zero zero one
- 28:56Speaker 5: is the number for The Armstrong Advisory. Group that number
- 28:59Speaker 5: once again for your free, call eight hundred three nine
- 29:02Speaker 5: three four zero zero.
- 29:03Speaker 1: One the proceeding was paid for By Armstrong Advisory, group
- 29:06Speaker 1: a registered investment. Advisor nothing in the ad or in
- 29:09Speaker 1: Any armstrong guide a specific, financial, legal or tax. Advice
- 29:12Speaker 1: consult your own, financial, tax and estate planning advisors before
- 29:14Speaker 1: making any investment. Decisions armstrong may contact you to offer
- 29:17Speaker 1: investment advisory.
- 29:18Speaker 2: Services take a quick break here and when we come,
- 29:23Speaker 2: back we'll do a little bit of Stack.
- 29:24Speaker 1: Roulette daily financial content in your feed when you want.
- 29:29Speaker 1: It follow The Financial exchange On. Instagram face is The Financial.
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- 29:41Speaker 1: get the latest business and financial news from across the
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- 29:54Speaker 1: Radio channel one thirty. Two face is The Financial Exchange Radio.
- 29:58Speaker 6: Network, mike what do you got for?
- 30:12Speaker 3: Me for Stack, RULO i want to talk about the gig.
- 30:14Speaker 5: Economy so we, saw, well we've seen a general trend
- 30:18Speaker 5: line where it's been easier to work.
- 30:20Speaker 3: In the gig economy for a number of.
- 30:22Speaker 5: Reasons, one the employers out there OR i guess non
- 30:25Speaker 5: employers contractors out, there really like the model that requires
- 30:28Speaker 5: them to not provide a whole bunch of benefits and
- 30:32Speaker 5: have a very flexible. Workforce companies Like uber have made this,
- 30:35Speaker 5: prevalent but are you even seeing it in Nursing in other?
- 30:37Speaker 5: Areas this was really easy to do as an employee
- 30:42Speaker 5: as well for the last five years because of a
- 30:45Speaker 5: bunch of very big subsidies around health.
- 30:46Speaker 3: Insurance so for the.
- 30:48Speaker 5: Last five years due TO, covid getting your health insurance
- 30:52Speaker 5: from THE, aca The Affordable Care act was pretty darn.
- 30:57Speaker 5: Cheap assuming you, made you, know as a family of,
- 31:01Speaker 5: four less than like one hundred, grand there were still
- 31:05Speaker 5: subsidies available to you in a lot of. Cases twenty
- 31:07Speaker 5: twenty six came around that completely wiped. Out, NOW i
- 31:10Speaker 5: doubt this is going to have a meaningful shift on
- 31:13Speaker 5: employment in the gig economy, immediately BUT i do think
- 31:17Speaker 5: it could have some you, know some tail risk here
- 31:20Speaker 5: to those people who you, know liked the flexibility and
- 31:23Speaker 5: were able to make it work because of the health insurance,
- 31:26Speaker 5: piece and may not be able to beyond twenty twenty
- 31:30Speaker 5: six when they realized just how expensive the unsubsidized health
- 31:33Speaker 5: insurance goes For there will still be plenty of time
- 31:37Speaker 5: that pick up extra hours delivering food and you, know
- 31:40Speaker 5: doing all sorts of other. Things but for the person
- 31:43Speaker 5: that shows it as a full time, career it has
- 31:47Speaker 5: dramatically shifted the overall formula as to whether or not
- 31:50Speaker 5: it makes.
- 31:50Speaker 2: Sense it's INTERESTING i hadn't thought of it in the
- 31:53Speaker 2: context of the gig.
- 31:54Speaker 4: Economy.
- 31:55Speaker 5: Yeah, again it's just you, know where else is there
- 31:58Speaker 5: a huge group of people that buy their own health?
- 32:00Speaker 3: Insurance definitely, There, yeah definitely.
- 32:02Speaker 2: THERE i want to talk about this piece why concerts
- 32:05Speaker 2: keep getting more, expensive and it's making the case, that you,
- 32:09Speaker 2: know artists that tour around the country are visiting fewer,
- 32:14Speaker 2: stops which may be. True i'll just say either, way
- 32:17Speaker 2: it's an extension of the same Thing i've been talking
- 32:18Speaker 2: about in many, respects which is, just, hey there are
- 32:21Speaker 2: more people now for the same finite number of. Seats
- 32:25Speaker 2: Madison Square garden doesn't add seats every.
- 32:29Speaker 3: Year you don't think there's less competition in the space.
- 32:32Speaker 5: Too LIKE i don't know what the landscape looked like
- 32:35Speaker 5: fifty years ago if you were The beatles going on,
- 32:38Speaker 5: Tour but do you think you had more options to
- 32:40Speaker 5: select from in terms of where those who sold those
- 32:43Speaker 5: tickets and.
- 32:45Speaker 3: Where you.
- 32:46Speaker 2: Performed, ultimately that'll work itself out on the secondary, market
- 32:49Speaker 2: which is WHERE i think you see what's really happening with,
- 32:52Speaker 2: pricing because Like ticketmaster doesn't control pricing on Stub hub
- 32:55Speaker 2: or something like, that and like this is where we
- 32:58Speaker 2: see all of the really. Pricing, Look i'll come back
- 33:03Speaker 2: to the same thing THAT i say over and over
- 33:05Speaker 2: if you went to a, Beach let's, say if you're
- 33:08Speaker 2: listening to us right, now when you're sixty and you
- 33:10Speaker 2: went to you, know a beach as a kid when
- 33:12Speaker 2: you were ten years. Old there are way more people right,
- 33:16Speaker 2: now and there aren't way more. Beaches it's the same.
- 33:20Speaker 2: Beach and that's why the parking went from being free
- 33:24Speaker 2: to a, dollar to five dollars to forty. Dollars and
- 33:27Speaker 2: that's why you, know, hey we used to be able
- 33:30Speaker 2: to get to the beach at ten am and get
- 33:32Speaker 2: a prime, spot and now we got to get there
- 33:33Speaker 2: at six in order to get you, know a, spot
- 33:35Speaker 2: and there's someone right next to.
- 33:37Speaker 4: Us the wh.
- 33:39Speaker 2: This is why like the world kind of feels like
- 33:43Speaker 2: we can't get, ahead is because there are these finite
- 33:46Speaker 2: resource items that we all, want and now because they're
- 33:50Speaker 2: getting more, expensive they also have a status attachment to,
- 33:54Speaker 2: them and that means that people that are wealthier than
- 33:56Speaker 2: us will want to pay for those things more than
- 33:59Speaker 2: we're able to or more than we want.
- 34:01Speaker 5: To, yeah the music industry in particular is interesting beyond
- 34:04Speaker 5: that to, me in that, now for a large portion of,
- 34:08Speaker 5: artists the only way that they make any real money
- 34:10Speaker 5: is from those concert. Tours oh, yeah because the streaming
- 34:12Speaker 5: guys have just crushed. Them streaming has killed any sort
- 34:15Speaker 5: of album. Sales and so the way that you monetize
- 34:20Speaker 5: yourself as a musical, artist unless You're Taylor swift and
- 34:23Speaker 5: a select few, others is by going on. Tour and even,
- 34:27Speaker 5: THERE i, mean that's where she makes her true money
- 34:29Speaker 5: from WHAT i. Understand, yes and so the incentives are
- 34:32Speaker 5: just very different than they. WERE i, mean, heck even
- 34:35Speaker 5: fifteen years, ago they were a heck of a lot
- 34:38Speaker 5: different in terms of incentives for musical. Artists, yeah working
- 34:42Speaker 5: In america has become. Joyless seems like a pretty blanket
- 34:47Speaker 5: statement to. Me they go into an, office and The
- 34:49Speaker 5: Wall Street journal wrote, this and they go into an
- 34:51Speaker 5: office At Dell, technologies which does not sound very.
- 34:54Speaker 3: Fun they went in.
- 34:56Speaker 5: Dead dell and they took away the free espresso machine
- 34:59Speaker 5: and they started charging people for.
- 35:00Speaker 3: Espresso so that would kiss.
- 35:02Speaker 5: Me off so. Much so here's the commitment from the
- 35:06Speaker 5: folks At armstrong is we have free espresso in the
- 35:09Speaker 5: lobby here and if you're A dell employee and you're feeling,
- 35:11Speaker 5: gypped then you want to drive on down To. Armstrong
- 35:14Speaker 5: we've got free. Espresso we'll buy you a cup of
- 35:16Speaker 5: espresso here at The Armstrong Advisory. Group that's What I'm
- 35:20Speaker 5: do you think that offices have become measurably more?
- 35:24Speaker 3: Miserable?
- 35:24Speaker 4: OH i think they were freaking?
- 35:26Speaker 2: Soft, Yeah, like, oh offices have become more. Joyless, okay
- 35:32Speaker 2: go spend like a day in The triangle shirtwaist factory
- 35:35Speaker 2: before the fire hit there and killed like two hundred
- 35:38Speaker 2: people back in the nineteen twenties or nineteen, tens, like, oh,
- 35:42Speaker 2: like my job's so joyless now corporate monitors. Me and,
- 35:45Speaker 2: Look i'm not saying, that like corporate should be like
- 35:47Speaker 2: monitoring your every. Keystroke that stuff. Sucks but we're really
- 35:51Speaker 2: bad at contextualizing how much better our lives are than
- 35:54Speaker 2: one hundred and ten years.
- 35:55Speaker 4: Ago that part's, True, like, oh.
- 35:58Speaker 2: They took away my freest so oh, no THIS siousi
- 36:02Speaker 2: went up in. Price give me a. Break you go
- 36:06Speaker 2: work in like The armor meat packing plant and tell
- 36:09Speaker 2: me how your life. Was you'd be, like, Man i've
- 36:11Speaker 2: never even heard of espresso because All i'm doing is
- 36:15Speaker 2: like sticking my arms in places where my fingers are
- 36:18Speaker 2: gonna get chopped.
- 36:18Speaker 5: OFF i will make the case that whether or not
- 36:21Speaker 5: people are excited about the labor market is entirely tied
- 36:24Speaker 5: to the free. Perks no degree to which you think
- 36:29Speaker 5: you might get fired. Soon that's what makes employees miserable
- 36:34Speaker 5: is if they think they're gonna be fired soon because
- 36:36Speaker 5: either their company's being shaken up from a new technology
- 36:40Speaker 5: company THAT i mentioned earlier and they don't know how
- 36:42Speaker 5: it's going to work out for, them or the economy
- 36:45Speaker 5: as a whole is looking pretty.
- 36:47Speaker 3: Bad then people are gonna tell you that their job.
- 36:49Speaker 5: Sucks when when you were getting bonuses for working from
- 36:53Speaker 5: home and taking a new, job you, know DURING, covid
- 36:58Speaker 5: you didn't hear a lot of complaining about how much your.
- 36:59Speaker 4: Job when was work?
- 37:02Speaker 2: Joyful like when when was like the time that people
- 37:05Speaker 2: just skipped around, going, oh look the tulips of bloom.
- 37:09Speaker 4: Min it's A monday AND i get to go.
- 37:11Speaker 3: TO, whoa what a beautiful? Morning like, like what are
- 37:14Speaker 3: we doing?
- 37:15Speaker 2: Here this is just such revisionist. History i'm not, saying
- 37:18Speaker 2: And i'm not someone who's like work always, Sucks like
- 37:21Speaker 2: that's not What i'm.
- 37:22Speaker 3: Saying but.
- 37:24Speaker 4: You go to work and you do the, work and
- 37:26Speaker 4: then you go home.
- 37:27Speaker 5: And you get a paycheck to feed your. Family that's
- 37:29Speaker 5: what the money's. For Like i'm, Sorry like working In
- 37:34Speaker 5: america became so, Joyless LIKE i just can't get past
- 37:41Speaker 5: this idea that like people just think it was like
- 37:43Speaker 5: this magical. Thing the only time that working In america
- 37:47Speaker 5: was probably like joyful was like the early nineteen fifties
- 37:50Speaker 5: when you could just get hammered on the job and
- 37:51Speaker 5: no one.
- 37:52Speaker 4: Cared that's.
- 37:54Speaker 2: Stopped So i'm, told, well you, know and even then
- 37:59Speaker 2: eventual they was, like, oh we can't do this, Anymore
- 38:01Speaker 2: like this isn't, good you.
- 38:03Speaker 4: Know is SO i don't, Know LIKE i JUST i
- 38:07Speaker 4: find stuff like this to just not be grounded in.
- 38:11Speaker 4: Reality but that's just.
- 38:13Speaker 2: Me we're gonna take a quick break for the rest
- 38:15Speaker 2: of the, day and when we come, back we'll try
- 38:17Speaker 2: to have a more joyful show.
- 38:19Speaker 4: Tomorrow