Latest / Bloomberg Intelligence / Eurasia's Rahman: UK Brexit Czar Choice Will Be Critical(Audio)

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Eurasia's Rahman: UK Brexit Czar Choice Will Be Critical(Audio) · Bloomberg Intelligence

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  Speaker 1: Global business news twenty four hours a day. It's Bloomberg
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  Speaker 1: This is a Bloomberg Business flat from Bloomberg World Handwaters.
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  Speaker 1: I'm Charlie Pellett. Just getting word from the United Kingdom
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  Speaker 1: that Philip Hammond has been named a u K. Chancellor
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  Speaker 1: of the Exchequer and George Osborne has resigned from the government.
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  Speaker 1: The US economy expanded at a modest pace since midway
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  Speaker 1: amidst mid May, amid slight price pressures and some softening
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  Speaker 1: in consumer spending. That's according to today's page book report
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  Speaker 1: from the Federal Reserve. Stocks are now trading mix. We've
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  Speaker 1: got the SMP five hundred indecks down to point at fifty,
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  Speaker 1: a drop there of point one percent, Dow industriels up fifteen,
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  Speaker 1: a gain of point one percent, and nastak is down nine,
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  Speaker 1: drop of two tents of one percent. Ten You're up
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  Speaker 1: thirteen thirty seconds. Heal there one point four or six percent.
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  Speaker 1: Gold up eight ninety the ounce to thirteen forty war
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  Speaker 1: at forty four barrel down four point. I'm Charlie Pellett
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  Speaker 1: and that's a bloomberg business flash. As we leave the
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  Speaker 1: European Union, we will forge a forge a bold, new
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  Speaker 1: positive role for ourselves in the world, and we will
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  Speaker 1: make Britain a country that works not for a privileged few,
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  Speaker 1: but for every one of us. That will be the
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  Speaker 1: mission of the government I lead, and together we will
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  Speaker 1: build a better Britain, a better Britain. That's what Theresa
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  Speaker 1: May is promising as she takes over as the United
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  Speaker 1: Kingdom's Prime Minister today, taking the reigns of power from
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  Speaker 1: former Prime Minister Cameron, forced out by the Brexit vote,
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  Speaker 1: which he opposed. We're getting some breaking news as we
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  Speaker 1: start this segment now. George Osborne is the first secred
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  Speaker 1: Terry of State in the UK. He has resigned from
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  Speaker 1: the government, the Prime Minister's Office says, and Philip Hammond
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  Speaker 1: being named the UK Chancellor of the Exchequer. Well, it's
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  Speaker 1: perfect time to bring in our next guest, with Thoma Robbin.
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  Speaker 1: He's practiced head uh in Europe, based in London for
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  Speaker 1: the Eurasia Group. He, among other things, worked at the
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  Speaker 1: European Commission's Director at General for Economic and Financial Affairs
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  Speaker 1: and at the UK Treasury, so he certainly knows all
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  Speaker 1: sides of this story. Mid welcome back to the show.
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  Speaker 1: Thank you for having me. Well, let's start with George
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  Speaker 1: Osborne resigning. According to the Prime Minister's Office, Philip Hammon
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  Speaker 1: named UK Chancellor of the Exchequer. What did these tell
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  Speaker 1: us about where Theresa May is taking her government? I
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  Speaker 1: think I think the most important individual that wes still
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  Speaker 1: waiting for is, of course, who is going to lead
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  Speaker 1: the Brexit negotiation. That's the individual thought will be critical
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  Speaker 1: for the trajectory of UK EU relation. Now, Philip ammons
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  Speaker 1: transfer from the Foreign Office to the Treasury on some
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  Speaker 1: level was expected. He's competent, well placed within the Conservative Party,
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  Speaker 1: and I think it's seemed to be a safe pair
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  Speaker 1: of hands in terms of economic management. So I don't
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  Speaker 1: I don't really think there are many surprises from Hammond's appointment.
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  Speaker 1: I think most interesting is going to be which leaves
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  Speaker 1: candidate Thereason May appoints to lead the negotiations with Europe.
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  Speaker 1: That's going to be critical. Can you tell us some
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  Speaker 1: names of individuals who you believe will guide the ship
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  Speaker 1: of state safely through the negotiations. Absolutely. I mean, of
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  Speaker 1: course that at the highest level Thereason May, I think,
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  Speaker 1: is going to be very actively involved on this issue.
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  Speaker 1: I already anticipate for traveling for bilaterals to meet Angela
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  Speaker 1: merk Or German Chancellor, the French President, as well as
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  Speaker 1: the institutional heads, who said in Brussels there are a
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  Speaker 1: number of names doing the rounds in London. I think
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  Speaker 1: um Chris Grailing, Speaker of the House of Commons, is
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  Speaker 1: a potential name. He was a prominent leave member of
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  Speaker 1: the cabinet close to Treason May Andrea led them who
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  Speaker 1: was the obviously a competitor, let's say to Mayo, who
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  Speaker 1: stepped down at the weekend. She's also seen to be
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  Speaker 1: a potential runner for this job, although I don't think
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  Speaker 1: she's too close to Theresa May, and there'd be some
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  Speaker 1: concerns I think about her negotiating style. David Davis from
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  Speaker 1: your administ I think he's also in the running. Oliver
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  Speaker 1: let Win, who currently holds the portfolio, she could also
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  Speaker 1: He could also stay in place. I think what's important
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  Speaker 1: for Theresa May is the internal balance of power within
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  Speaker 1: her cabinets. I think there's a lot of Leaves members
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  Speaker 1: that are likely to ultimately end up in the cabinet cabinet,
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  Speaker 1: and I'm sure one of those will ultimately have to
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  Speaker 1: lead the Brexit negotiations in order to keep the Tory
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  Speaker 1: Party happy with the selection of her name, She's the
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  Speaker 1: right person at the right time. Theresa me or and
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  Speaker 1: Or to what extent was she considered the safe choice,
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  Speaker 1: the person everybody could agree on. I think look from
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  Speaker 1: a from a from a first best perspective, no, I
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  Speaker 1: don't think so, but from a least worst perspective, she's
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  Speaker 1: absolutely the right candidate. If it was a choice between her, UM,
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  Speaker 1: Andrea Ledson, Michael go or indeed Boris Johnson, then absolutely
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  Speaker 1: she's the best choice. I think Boris Johnson would have
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  Speaker 1: been more willing to do a dirty deal, if I
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  Speaker 1: can put it like that, over Europe, so essentially willing
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  Speaker 1: to undo the commitments he made through the referendum on immigration. UM.
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  Speaker 1: But there were of course a lot of questions about
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  Speaker 1: Boris Johnson's disposition towards foreign policy, world leaders, his general
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  Speaker 1: of his general that's a fumbling approach to policy takes.
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  Speaker 1: So there were a lot of concerns about how suitable
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  Speaker 1: she would be overall as as prime ministry, even if
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  Speaker 1: on the narrow Europe question he'd be effective. Michael Gove
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  Speaker 1: Andrea led him. Their problem for both, for both of them, frankly,
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  Speaker 1: is that their ideas their ideological and their ideologically opposed
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  Speaker 1: to Europe. So getting a deal with the Europeans when
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  Speaker 1: you have two ideologues at the home I think would
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  Speaker 1: have made things more difficult. Theresa May is pragmatic, she's
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  Speaker 1: deal she's a deal maker. I think she's oriented in
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  Speaker 1: that way. She's well known in Europe, she's well liked
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  Speaker 1: and well respected, and I think for the for those
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  Speaker 1: reasons at this juncture, she she is the right person
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  Speaker 1: for the job. Do you foresee another referendum by another
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  Speaker 1: European country to leave the European Union. I think there's
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  Speaker 1: absolutely a risk. There is already a referendum in Italy
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  Speaker 1: in October on constitutional reform that will de fact to
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  Speaker 1: be a referendum on the Prime minister, uh Matteo Renzi.
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  Speaker 1: There's absolutely pressure in the Netherlands ahead of elections next
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  Speaker 1: year to commit to a referendum. There's a far right
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  Speaker 1: party led by somebody known as Get World as you
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  Speaker 1: want the party known as the PDV and they're likely
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  Speaker 1: to be a powerbroker in government formation next year and
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  Speaker 1: they're absolutely looking for a reference, so that's definitely a risk.
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  Speaker 1: Thank you very much for spending time with us. Mutaba
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  Speaker 1: Raman he is the practice head for Europe for the
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  Speaker 1: Eurasia Group based in London, speaking about Theresa May taking
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  Speaker 1: over as Britain's Prime Minister after her predecessor David Cameron
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  Speaker 1: tended his resignation to Queen Elizabeth the second you're listening
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  Speaker 1: to taking Stock. Coming up on taking Stock, we're going
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  Speaker 1: to take a look at the Fed's Beige Book and
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  Speaker 1: put in the context of rising rate odds, raising rate
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  Speaker 1: high godds in December. That's coming up on Bloomberg Radio.