Latest / Mike Check - A College Football Podcast / SEC Breakdown & Win Total Projections
Transcript
- Jackson: Hey everyone, welcome back. My name's Shaxon Allen, that's Davis Bowman, and this is the Mic Check Podcast. Davis: Pretty good. Jackson: Better than last time. Getting the hang of Davis: Yeah. Jackson: this hosting thing. All right, let's get into it. so on today's agenda, we're gonna run over SEC, schedules, teams, predictions. we're gonna start off just with like a general overview of the teams, just to kinda refresh everyone's brain and I guess turn football mode back on. so we'll do it alphabetically. We'll start we'll start with Alabama. Obviously last year they made the College Ball playoff lost in the SE championship to Georgia. those two losses were quite on the more embarrassing side. it'll be new new team this year, a new quarterback, new offensive line, as we've mentioned in previous episodes, and there's a lot Davis: A new name for Ryan Coleman, too. And number. Jackson: Yeah, and a new name. Ryan Coleman Williams. Yeah, and a new number. That's right. Davis: Yeah, I'm I already know I'm gonna mess that up every time we do it, but Jackson: Wonder if I wonder if announcers will get that right. Davis: Yeah. Jackson: so I think the defense will be the strong, strong side of the ball for Alabama this year. a lot of question marks, like I said, on offense. Offensive line is always a big thing. I mean, that can make or break your season as the offensive line, and that I think is the biggest question mark other than quarterback for Alabama right now. But the defense Davis: Yeah, I mean Jackson: go ahead. Davis: Yeah, just gonna piggyback on the quarterback take. I mean, either way you're starting a first time starter, so definitely a lot of uncertainty there, but definitely some talent in that room. Jackson: Yeah. I I would say Austin Mack's probably the safer play with his age, I guess you could say. but Davis: And multiple years in the system too. I mean, he came over from Washington as well. Jackson: Right, right, right. I don't know, I've heard I've I've heard both things through different sources, people, I listened to a few Alabama shows and I'm hearing I'm hearing a lot of both. I know a lot of people probably think it's Keelan Russell, but I I think it's going I think it's gonna come down to the wire, so that'll be interesting. I would probably go with Keelan Russell, given the, you know little information that I have and the little knowledge that I have, but if the offensive line's gonna be a question mark, I think I think Russell will be able to take some of that pressure off them with his ability to use his legs. and I know we've talked about that before. Davis: Yeah. Jackson: yeah, offensive line full rebuild. defense, I think the defense is gonna be the strength. you're returning your core defensive back unit. That was one of the best in the country last year. Devin Tompkins, a transfer from USC, is another guy that, you know, I hear a lot about rumors and other things that he's gonna be he's gonna be a name that a lot of people know come fall. So yeah. Alabama they got seven starters back total. That's forty eight percent production. And yeah, I think it's college football playoff or bust again for Okay on the bore. So you got anything else to add on the tide before we move on? Davis: no, I think you hit it all. Jackson: All right, Arkansas. Davis: Yep, obviously disappointing season last year. New coach. brought over from Memphis. starting quarterback appears to be KJ Jackson, who is the red shirt sophomore from Arkansas, played a little bit, and bring back Braylon Russell, the running back, who also should be in for a larger role this year. now that drawing a blank on his name, but he went to the the Raiders now that he was drafted. don't have a whole lot to say about Arkansas. Jackson: Yeah, I think Davis: Yeah, anything. Jackson: I think it's interesting. I know it's common in the new age of college football for teams to go offensive minded, but Arkansas's defense was atrocious last year. So Davis: Yeah. Jackson: I don't think offense is gonna be a problem for them this year. I think if they can if they can improve a little bit on defense, I think they can do okay for their standards. they did get Davis: I mean they had like the most athletic backfield of all time last year with Talen Green who ran like a four three five at six six two forty and then Mike Washington, their running back. I think he got drafted in in day on day three, but he also ran like a sub four four. So a lot of athleticism that they're having to replace and we'll see We'll see what Ryan Silverfield, their head coach, will be able to do. Jackson: Yeah, they do they had f 40 transfers, I think. one of them notably is Jaheem Johnson. transferred from Tulane, had four interceptions last year, 42 tackles, and was an all-American all-American conference. So first team all conference. Pretty good. All American All American co and American conference. and then Chris Marshall, Davis: All Amer all American with a little asterisk there. Yeah. Jackson: wide receiver from Borsey State. I think he's like six three two ten or something. He's a he used he was a five star. so we'll see if they can tap into that a little bit Davis: All right. I guess moving on to Auburn, obviously Jackson: Go ahead. Davis: bringing over Alex Golish and the entire South Florida squad. namely Byron Brown, one of, you know, I think it was six quarterbacks that rushed for a thousand yards and threw for three thousand yards in history. So that's like joins the likes of Tim Tebow, Lamar Jackson, Johnny Manzel. so obviously very productive last year at South Florida, but is now moving over to the SEC. So we'll see how that translates. bring back a good running back with Jeremiah Cobb. rushed for a little over 900 yards last year, took over for Damari Austin after like game like two or three. and was hard to stop after that. receivers, you can just look at the USF depth chart from last year. but Jackson: Yeah, how about all those receivers? They're all gone. The freeze the freeze four is gone. That was quick. Davis: Yeah, I know. Yeah, very quick. I guess namely Keyshawn Singleton, he was he was all American last year, for the conference. so I think he'll probably be the number one there. but I think there's a lot of different receivers that they're gonna rotate in and out. Biggest question mark is without a doubt the O line. lost All five starters on the line last year. so replaced them with five new starters from the portal, being mostly group of five schools. So huge question mark there. and then on to the defense, you know, it's led by Xavier Atkins, who was an all American last year. no asterisk there. You know, he's gonna be expect huge things out of him again. You know, he was an off ball linebacker, sideline to sideline, and still had nine sacks. So very versatile. that linebacking core for Auburn's gonna be one of the best in the conference, but D line and in the secondary, there's definitely some question marks with new guys, but the the talents there, we'll just see if they they put it all together. Jackson: Okay. Roll into Florida. All right. Obviously new coach new coach here, John Summerall comes over from Tulane. Davis: We've already hit the the three American coaches that went to the SEC. Jackson: Yeah. That we have. interesting hire there from think from Florida. I I like John Summer. I think I'm not saying I think he'll do bad. I think it's just kind of a rented repeat from from old Napier, but we'll see. We'll see. Quarterback battle, Davis: Yeah. Brought in a Jackson: I guess. Or no, you think you think Philo's got it? Davis: I think I think it's probably Philo. I mean he came over with the Georgia Tech OC, who's now the Florida OC. returning Jaden Baugh, one of the top three running backs in the SEC. Also brought in Eric Singleton from Auburn, who was at Georgia Tech prior to Auburn, lit it up at Georgia Tech. Came over to Auburn, Hugh Freeze, didn't know how to use I'm expecting some some bigger things out of Eric Singleton with a you know, more creative play caller. Jackson: all I got for Florida. It's kind of just we'll see thing. A lot of these a lot of these new coaches I think it's just you know, bringing over their their guys from these smaller schools. It's sure they Davis: Yeah. Jackson: were they were successful at the smaller schools, but will that translate into the SEC? That's I mean it's just kind of Davis: Yeah. Jackson: a just kind of a wait and see thing. So I don't know. Davis: Yeah, I think just one last thing on Florida. I think one of the the question marks there is that how will Summerall do with below average, like not elite talent in the conference? You know, when he came over when he took over for Tulane, you know, Tulane was on a a a great run there and so it was he hit the ground running. I mean, credit to him doing that. but Florida is more of a rebuild. I mean They do have a surprisingly higher over under and we'll get into that later, but you know, I don't think that that the talent there is you know fit to excel in year one. but I do think that they're bringing in the talent, especially in the recruiting trail this year as well. Jackson: Yeah. I mean I think Florida's just kinda like a a sleeping giant. I mean people I feel like recruits wanna go to Florida, but it's hard, you know, they've last year was their fourth losing season in five years. So I think they'll get get back on track. I just don't know how well they'll do this year. I guess like you said. It's just kind of unknown, Davis: Yeah. Jackson: so Davis: Yeah. All right. On to Georgia. you know, probably one of the the lesser change teams from last year. And obviously you have the the the talent that goes to the NFL, but you bring back Gunnar Stockton, another year under his belt, bring back Nate Frazier, the running back from last year. You actually bring in Isaiah Canyon from Georgia Tech. he was pretty good there. And then I think the the defense kind of speaks for itself with preseason All American KJ Bolden leading that safety room and some other talented guys like Ellis Robinson, and the former top five overall pick from two years ago, Elijah Griffin at the D line. He'll be the presumed starter, so it'll be good to see if these five stars make an instant impact or not. Jackson: Yeah. I think I I think I saw that Georgia returns the most starters in the SEC. So I think it'll be the same old Georgia team. You know, they lost four of their five top receivers lot from last year, but I think it's just a a reload type thing. I think they'll do what Georgia does best is, try to run the ball, win in the trenches and it's been it's done pretty well for them lately, so I I wouldn't Have I don't have any concerns about Georgia really. Davis: Yeah. Jackson: All right, Kentucky. New head coach Will Stein. Davis: I like to hire. You know, came over Jackson: I do too. He had a pretty good Davis: from Oregon as their O C last year. Jackson: Yeah, I mean Kenny Minchie's the quarterback there. I mean he he gave car run Davis: Yeah. Jackson: for his money last year. Or you was it last year they had that quarterback competition? Davis: Yeah, I think yeah, he transferred transferred in this past year. I'm pretty positive. Jackson: Yeah. Yeah. Davis: I think he was a higher rated recruit, so first time he's got the he'll be the signal caller. And then, you know, they have a good back in CJ Baxter, who we'll get into later when we do the the Texas preview. But I mean Essentially they had the opportunity to bring in two new running backs in the portal and so they kinda kicked him out and so I think he'll be pretty good. I guess he didn't play too much, but I think he was the starter going into last season for Texas and must have been banged up with injuries, but he he had a lot of hype for with him this time last year. And then and then obviously injuries throughout that, but Yep. You know Jackson: Another one another one of the like the whole roster's new, so it's just kinda hard to pinpoint how Kentucky I mean they have a tough schedule too, so I think making Davis: Yeah. Jackson: a bowl would be a a huge accomplishment for them this year. But like you said, we'll Davis: Yeah. Jackson: get into that later. you got anything else on Kentucky? Davis: nope, I'm good to move on. Jackson: Alright, LSU. Davis: another team that's completely rebuilt from the portal. you know, Lane Kiffin brought in Sam Levitt, quarterback from Arizona State. Jace Brown, the receiver from Kansas State. That was another big pickup. Jordan Seaton from Colorado. they do bring back their tight end Tradez Green, who is a, you know, matchup nightmare at like six seven or something ridiculous like that. So I mean Kivin's gonna have his his weapons to to play with, so that'll be fun to see. Jackson: Yeah. The roster's there, for sure. Davis: Yeah. Yep. They're year one too. I was looking at at the SP plus ratings beforehand and surprisingly their offense was a little lower than I expected, but their their defense was was very high. So I expect the defense to be pretty good with, you know, I'm not even gonna try to say his name, but Prince Will, the edge from Ole Miss. He came over Whit Weeks at linebacker. DJ Pickett, the former number one corner two years ago. so I think the talents there and the like analytics think that the defense will be good. And, you know, and I'm just gonna believe in Kiffin offensively. so I think that they're going to be a contender right off the bat. Jackson: Yeah, I think retaining Blake Baker was huge for them. Similar to Auburn retaining Durgan. I think, you know, having a a coach like Kiffen, who's so offensive minded with X's and O's and excels very well, calling offensive plays, I think it's very important for them to have a a really strong defensive coordinator. And I think Blake Baker's a great D C so I think I think L S U will be We'll be solid this year. Definitely, like I said, Davis: Yeah. Jackson: the roster's there. The roster's there. Can they can they put it together? And is Sam Levitt? Davis: Yeah. Jackson: Like, is he legit? I mean, we talked about it last last time out. He had, a gr he had that one great year at Arizona State and then last year kinda the injury bug got him and you know, they they kinda fell off a little bit. So we'll see. We'll see. It'll be it'll be a fun watch for sure. Davis: So think moving on to Mississippi, I mean, a quarterback Camario Taylor, you know, he took over for Blake Shapen late last year and showed flashes immediately. So excited to see him, you know, very athletic, big quarterback. fluff Bothwell at running back. not an all American, but I think he's on the all American name team. And then also brought in Yeah, it took you a little while. and then brought in some transfer receivers as well. so I mean this team really just rides on the back of Camario Taylor. If he can put it all together, I think that they can surprise a lot of people. Jackson: Yeah. I mean Yeah, sure. I I don't have much to add in Mississippi State. I just They didn't they didn't have Davis: Yeah. Jackson: a great portal class. what were they five and seven I think last year? Yeah, five and seven or five Davis: Yeah, they were they were five and seven and then went to a bowl game with the bowl game opt-outs, like team opt outs. Jackson: Yeah, one and eight in the SEC. And last year their defense allowed seventy two first quarter points and a hundred and thirty three fourth quarter points. So that's definitely something to watch in in twenty twenty six. We gotta clean that up. So Davis: Yeah. Jackson: Missouri? Davis: Yep, I mean hard to say with Missouri right now just because it doesn't seem like there's any like solid like evidence on the status of Ahmad Hardy Hardy. one of the best running backs in the SEC last year, returning this year, but was actually shot, I'm pretty sure. I hope I don't get that wrong, but I'm pretty sure he was shot. Jackson: Yeah. Yeah, no. Yeah. Davis: I think last I checked, they're just being super vague about it. So, you know what we might see him week one, we might not see him at all. so hard to really place them because he is a game game changer at running back. Jackson: He is and I think, you know, they have that elite offensive tackle, Caden Green, and I think Austin Simmons would Davis: Yeah. Jackson: fit pretty well in that system, especially if he can get some help from Hardy. I think it'll definitely open up open up the field and open up that pass game. So, like you said, yeah. Hardy's injury is definitely their season rides on on that guy being solid. So hopefully he can get back soon. Yeah, I haven't heard any looking it up. I have not seen any updates on him. significant updates at least. Davis: Yeah, I feel like it since we haven't heard anything by, you know, I mean it's mid August now or three weeks away, it's probably not looking great for week one, but you know, and I mean I don't I don't know. So I guess it's a wait and wait and see game with with that. All right, I guess we'll move on to Oklahoma. I mean, went to the college football playoff last year, lost Alabama. looked really good early on. You know, John Mateira was I think at one point the Heisman favorite after like week two or three. ended up breaking his hand against Auburn. Finished the game. Auburn couldn't take advantage. and then missed a couple weeks, came back, wasn't really the same. so you never you never really got to see what that that team ceiling was last year, but you know, he returns, should be healthy. offense while offensive line wise, you know, they bring in they bring back Michael Fasusi, one of the the top ranked freshman tackles last year. Jackson: think they're the most experienced returning offensive line. Which to me with Mateer and his I wouldn't say it's injury problem. What do you injure? Like his thumb or something? I don't think that's a Davis: Yeah. Jackson: a recurring thing, but with a good o offensive line and Mateer playing well, I think I think Oklahoma's gonna be very, very good. I'm high on them. I'm high on them. Davis: Yeah. yeah. And I'm high on them too and we'll obviously get into that. I think the defense speaks for itself. I mean Brent Venables always has an elite d defense. D line should be good, even replacing some of the guys that left. I think the question mark with them is is their new receiver room, lost Dion Burks last year or going into this year, but brought in Texas transfer. so I think this is another one of those teams that really rides on how well can John Mateer orchestrate that offense. but you know it I'm I'm believing in it. So I think we should expect good things out of them this upcoming year. Jackson: Almost? Davis: Yep. I mean this is definitely headlined by the two big returnees, Trinidad Chamberless and Kawan Lacey. it feels so weird having to like like describe every big time player as like a key returnee now. Like usually you'd only Jackson: I know. Davis: say that if it was like a junior that was like probably going pro in return. Now you just have to say that about, you know, every single good player. But that's yeah, that's Jackson: Everyone. Yeah, literally every Davis: the that's the the world we live in. but I mean yeah Trinidad Cham Chamberless, Kwan Lacey, preseason all SEC, I think preseason All American as well. yeah. Yeah. Jackson: Yeah, they both are. I think on some list at least. Davis: Yeah. defense. Jackson: Another O line. Another O line that's extremely experienced. So, you know, you add a good returning offensive line with Chambliss and and Lacey is you could argue that they should do the same thing they did last year, but then at the same time it's Lane Kiffin and I guess Charlie Weiss were were calling those plays, so I don't think they'll be the same team. I don't think they'll be just horrible either, but I mean the personnel's there. It's just you know, coaching's a big part of it too, obviously. So, I think that's to me the biggest question about Ole Miss. I feel like they're personnel wise, they're close to the same, at least on offense. But who's Davis: Yeah. Jackson: calling those plays and and how is how is that gonna work out? without Lane and and Charlie Weiss, so Go ahead, sorry. Davis: Yep. no, I I was gonna hit on that too. So yeah, glad you did. All right, South Carolina, probably the most fun team to play with on college football twenty seven. Lenore Sellers, just absolute freak. And then Nick Harbour, the receiver, who I believe made the number one player on the freaks list. I mean six six, two forty five receiver runs like might break four three, sub four three at the combine. had a better season last year. just kinda needs to put it all together. But yeah. so they have some interesting players. That O line was atrocious last year. So didn't really get to see little what Jackson: It's a full That's a full that's a full portal class, I think, for their O line. I think they brought in fresh Davis: Yeah, they Jackson: fresh guys. Davis: Yeah, I know they brought in I think the top tackle out of the portal, Jacarius Peak. So that was, you Jackson: Yeah. Davis: know, a bigger a bigger pickup. Jackson: Yeah, I thought he was coming to Tuscaloosa. Yeah, he that guy was good. I really wanted him to Tuscaloosa. Davis: Yeah. And then yeah, and then we went this whole time without even mentioning maybe the best defensive player in college football in Dylan Stewart. so yeah, I'm yeah, they have I mean Jackson: Yeah. That guy's a beast. He's good. Davis: they have the stars. O line held back last year. we'll see if they they turn around this year. Jackson: They were so bad last year. I just can't I don't know. I don't know how you can make that. I was too. I mean, it's it's kind of like this Davis: I was high on last year. I pla I play yeah Jackson: year though. It's like the offensive line's still the question mark. You still know every other position. But like Davis: Yeah. Jackson: you they brought in new guys. I know this Peak has a lot of experience and he's good, but like these other guys, I don't know. I mean, they're new, but that does that mean they're good? I don't know. I haven't done Davis: Yeah. Jackson: a deep dive on the South Carolina offensive line yet, but we'll see. They got all the pieces again. See if they can put it together. See if the O line gets better this year. Davis: Yeah. Jackson: All right. Tennessee. Davis: Yeah, I'll let you kick it off with Tennessee. I know you love orange. Jackson: Love Another year in the Josh Heppel system. quarterback battle. I based off what I'm hearing, I think it's phase on Brandon, right? Davis: Yeah, I would be surprised if he doesn't start. Jackson: I mean, McIntyre's not bad. George McIntyre's not bad. He he played a little bit last year. I think he did decent, but I've heard Faison Brainon's like the real deal. So it would surprise me if he didn't start. Davis: Yeah. Do you remember who they play week one off the top of your head? I know we have the schedule when we go through the teams we'll we can pull up the schedule, but I don't remember off my map. Jackson: I think they have a cupcake and then they play Georgia Tech. Davis: Yeah, that sounds right. So I'm sure we'll see both of them at the very least week one. probably take it from there. Jackson: Yeah, I think they have a apologies for whoever whatever school this is, but I think they have an easier opponent, week one and then I think they play Georgia Tech in Atlanta, I believe. I think that's their non con game. Davis: Yeah, th yeah, they do. Yeah. But yeah. Jackson: So another experience offensive line coming back. Jim Knowles from D from Penn State slash Ohio State coming coming in to be their defensive coordinator. I feel like that's a hire that gets Davis: Yeah. Jackson: overlooked. eight and five last year. Yeah. Davis: Arian Carter. Yeah. Arian Carter, linebacker, preseason, all SEC, so it's a name to watch out for. Jackson: They added eight defensive backs in the portal. I thought that was interesting. I guess they really addressed that that gap. That gap. Davis: Yeah. Jackson: Aaron Carter out the first two games. Any thoughts about that? About the the plane ticket thing, right? Davis: I did s yeah, I've completely forgot about that. That was so dumb. I hate how Jackson: Yeah. Yeah. Davis: the NCAA just like they've lost control and then every once in a while they just Yeah. They lost control and then every once in Jackson: Well they just kinda pick and choose, like why I mean there's other things they need to worry about. Davis: a while every once in a while they're gonna they're like, you know what, we're gonna hand down something ridiculous just just to just to say that we can and yeah, apparently they paid it he paid it back and everything, so Yeah, I I saw that report and I was just like, What what it was the NCA doing? Like a lot bigger issues to address, but no. Jackson: Yeah, I mean th like that's I don't like Tennessee. Don't get me wrong, but I mean come on, man. That's that's not something we need to be worried about. I feel like a lot of people are sleeping on Tennessee this year. I you they just I don't hear people talking. I mean, you get Texas LSU, Oklahoma, Ole Miss. I mean, I feel like those are kind of the talk of the town. Georgia obviously, but Tennessee's kinda slipping under Davis: Yeah. Jackson: the radar. all right, we can move on to to Texas. Davis: Yeah. Jackson: High expectations Davis: I mean Jackson: from Texas. High expectations. Davis: Yeah. I yeah. One of the highest one of the highest over unders and that's with a non conference game of Ohio State. So market obviously very high on I mean and just stars everywhere. Arch Manning, Hollywood Smothers and Relique Brown transfers at running back. you probably have the best receiver room. in the SEC with Cam Coleman and and Ryan Ringo. and then you Yeah. Jackson: Well Muschamp. That's another that's another hire that that I somewhat forgot about till I was doing my research. I forgot. That's that's a big that's a big addition. I mean Muschamp's a solid DC. He may not be a great head coach, but that man can a man can coach a defense, so Davis: Yeah. I mean they they very well could have like three top, you know, eight NFL draft picks next year and Arch Manning, Cam Coleman, and Colin Simmons the the D end. Jackson: Yeah. Davis: Not I mean, I think that might be like median outcome at this point with the odds that we looked at last week for Arch Manning. Jackson: I would expect yeah, I would expect those three, at least. Davis: Yeah. Yeah. So last week we went over the the quarterbacks that had the top odds of going number one. So we didn't look into the other positions, but I mean it was like Arch Manning one, Dante Moore two, and then it was Colin Simmons three. So, I mean, very well could have three of the top eight picks, and I don't that's not crazy to say. Jackson: Do you say that t Texas is the most talented team in the country? Or maybe the SEC. I put up there with being the most talented team in the country. Maybe maybe not the SEC. Davis: Yeah. Jackson: Or sorry. I said that backwards. I would definitely say they're one of the probably the talent most talented team in the SEC and maybe the country. I mean, who else has more talent? Davis: Yeah. Yeah, I think that Jackson: Talent. Not like I'm not saying projection, just raw talent. I think Texas is Davis: I mean it's yeah, it's either them or Ohio State or I mean, maybe Oregon. probably those three. Yep. Jackson: Yeah. Got some dudes. They got some dudes. Davis: Yep. Jackson: Alright, A A lot of people have an A and N. Davis: Yep. yeah. Another one that's just, you know, rides on the quarterback. Marcel Reid showed, you know, showed flashes last year, was inconsistent at times, but has all the tools. really like the receiver room. If if I if Texas has got the best receiver room in the SEC, I think Texas AM is probably second, led by thousand yard receiver Mario Kraver last year. lost KC Concepcion to the Browns in the first round, but brought in Isaiah Horton from Alabama. and then also have Bethel Roman and Terry Bussey as well. I think I said his name right, but lot a lot of skill out wide. Jackson: Yeah. another guy that some people are l lot of Tech Cynthia people are high on is DJ Hicks, five star in the twenty twenty three class. I think he'll be a solid D line edition. you got the Edge transfer from Northwestern Anto Saka. I think I said that right. it's another guy that people have on their NFL radar. Replacing three drafted defensive linemen, which I thought was pretty significant. Another thing about AM that a lot of people, I guess are forgetting about, or at least I was, they're bringing in two new coordinators. Holman Wiggins, offensive coordinator, and Lyle Hemphill at at DC. So interesting that a team with as much success as they had last year is bringing in two two new coordinators. So that'll be fun to watch. Davis: And and neither of became head coaches. They're la from last year, right? Yeah. yep, you're right. Yep. Jackson: Right. No, yeah, Colin Klein. Kans State. Yeah, yeah. But Davis: That was that was a given though. It was that was that was gonna happen regardless. Back to his Jackson: Yeah. Face of the franchise there. Davis: Yeah. Also brought in Des Ricks from Alabama. I I was thought for a little bit Auburn had a had a chance. with him but he decided on A and All right, to finish it off, last year's Cinderella, Vanderbilt lost some talent. I guess I can't say to the NFL because he didn't go to the NFL he didn't go to the NFL, but Jackson: Yeah. Not to the NFL. Don't give Don't give that. Davis: yeah, lost some talent. Diego Pavia w We might a we might have should have waited to do our SEC predictions. He's gonna find a way to to be on that on the field week one. He's gonna sue the NCA. Jackson: That's true. With the fifth year thing, we may we may see Pavia week one. Davis: I could not take a Jackson: Couldn't either. Davis: a a fourth straight loss to to Diego Pavia against Auburn. had us two years ago Jackson: Four years he beat you four years in a I know we beat you with New Mexico State and then Vandy and then again with Vandy. You guys lost Vandy last year, I guess. Davis: Yeah Yeah, two years two years with Van D, one with New Mexico State, and then when he comes back, he's destined to beat us again. so fingers crossed. also lost the tight end to the Eagles in the second round. help me out here, forgetting his name. Jackson: Eli stowers. Davis: Yeah, yeah, he was obviously Yeah, very good. Jackson: He was good. Yeah, he was good. And then Jared Curtis, you think I think he obviously not obviously, I think he will probably start, yeah, when you say. Davis: Yeah, I was listening to to something and and it might have been I can't remember who it was, but they basically said what they're hearing is that it'll probably be like week three that he takes over. I don't know if they're gonna throw him into the the fire immediately, but I would be shocked if we didn't see him by, mid season. I mean hell they're paying like a starting SEC quarterback at a at a big time program, five star quarterback. Jackson: Yeah. I can't believe I can't believe they got him from Georgia. I I I I mean I know there was there was talk and but when all that was going on I thought there was no way. There's no way this kid's going to Vandy. Especially with, I feel like Pavia was kind of the face of the Vandy Cinderella story. I I didn't really Davis: Yeah. Jackson: think it would keep going. I guess NIL changes changes a lot in the college football landscape nowadays, but he he went to banding. It'll be interesting. It'll be interesting to see Davis: Yeah. Yeah. They start Jackson: if he gets if he gets the help he needs, and how fast he'll be out of there if he doesn't. Davis: Yeah. I mean they start with Austin P and then Delaware. So I mean we're gonna see we're gonna see the the freshman immediat like in those games even if he doesn't start, you know. Jackson: Hey, don't sleep on Delaware. Wanna put that out there. They got a good quarterback. The kid's Davis: Delaware. Delaware. Jackson: good. I watched a few of their games on Tuesday nights when they were the only team playing. The kid's not bad. I can't r I can't think of his name, but he's good. All right. You wanna jump into Davis: Hmm. No Flacco? Jackson: No, not Flacco. I think it's Flacco's nephew. No, not actually. The kid's good. He is good. He's probably gonna throw Davis: Are you serious? you had me full. Jackson: thirty picks this year, but I enjoyed watching on Tuesday nights last year. So all Davis: Yeah. Jackson: right, you wanna jump into the the stock exchange and see what teams were were buying and what teams were selling? Davis: Yeah, let's do it. I guess just to preface it, we took each team, we went through their schedule, and we assigned a percentage win against each of their opponents. So, looking at for example, Auburn, you know, if I said that Auburn had a twenty-five percent chance to beat Georgia, then when I then did the Georgia schedule breakdown. those those percentages would align. So everything is is a zero sum, no contradictions anywhere. So put a lot of time into it and I think y'all will enjoy our our I guess our breakdown of all the the teams so here's the tool that we have pulled up. so Jackson and I both individually entered our win total projections for each team. we're gonna go one by one through the through here, see if we, agree with the market, see where Jackson and I disagree and kind of talk through, why or why not. we think that they're a strong over or under take for each team. so to lead it off, we have the highest win total team with Georgia at nine and a half wins. after going through their schedule, assigning, percentages for each opponent. I also came out exactly at nine and a half, which was really interesting to see. definitely not intentional, but I mean basically tells me that I'm aligned with that Georgia total. So no qualms from me with how Vegas has them. Jackson: Yeah. I saw it as slightly under and and I may sound a little repetitive as we go through this, but when giving the percentage chance to win for all these teams, I think the SEC's just more balanced this year. And when I say that I don't mean that Georgia and Kentucky are equal or even close to equal, but I just feel like Georgia any time let's look see pulling up their schedule. For example, at Alabama, at Ole Miss, even at South Carolina, I I just don't think I don't think those are all just given wins. so that's probably why mine's a little bit lower. Davis: Yeah. And I think something that'll something that'll be common across this discussion is that it seems like the market is treating, Georgia and Texas as these clear cut two top leaders in the SEC. And then there's a clear defined second tier that consists of Alabama LSU, Tex A and Ole Miss, and Oklahoma. I I think that The way that we're both seeing it is that maybe that gap between tier one and tier two isn't as pronounced as as what the market is thinking. Jackson: Right. I agree. I agree a hundred percent. I don't think I don't think the gap between you see you have Texas, for example, at nine and a half projected wins and then Oklahoma is it seven and a half. I don't think the gap's two games there. I think I would say Texas and Oklahoma are maybe one game, maybe half game, one, one half half game maybe. Davis: Yeah. And and and that's that's a two game according to Vegas, while also factoring in. Texas gets Ohio State. I've said it many times, Oklahoma gets Michigan. You know, maybe a bad example there, Jackson: Yeah. And an on the burn. So Davis: but I don't think anyone's arguing that that Michigan is is on the same level as Ohio State. So Definitely interesting to see how high they had Texas and it's I mean it's somewhere that we both agree on. So we both have it as a strong under. I have it at eight point six and you have it at Jackson: Eight point two nine. Davis: eight point two nine. So that's probably one of our stronger agreements between the two of us and also strongest disagreements with the market. so we'll be interesting to see how that one plays out. Jackson: Yeah. And and I think, you know, they have a lot of talent, but I think again, I don't think the gap is that big. So they did. Davis: They had a lot of talent last year, didn't make the playoffs. Jackson: Right. Right. And again, you play at Tennessee, you have obviously a neutral game against Oklahoma. You get Ohio State. You go at LSU, at Missouri, and you don't of course you don't know the the status of Ahmad Hardy right now, but Those are all losable games. I mean playing at Tennessee, Davis: Yeah. Jackson: playing at L S U, that's it's that's no no cakewalk, so I'll definitely Davis: Yeah. And if you go to the very bottom, I mean the there's a clear bottom like three teams according to Vegas Jackson: yeah. Davis: and it's it's Arkansas, Mississippi State, Kentucky, and then Vandy. They only I I believe they only get one of those or no, they get two. So two of the bottom four, Mississippi State and Arkansas, I believe. So Jackson: Yeah, but then another game I left off on my rant was at Texas A and to end the season. So they just gotta I mean three tough, tough road games Tennessee at Tennessee at L S U at A and And then you get Ole Miss on Ohio State at home and neutral against Oklahoma. I just I think that I think that number's a little high for me. So not Davis: Yeah. Jackson: saying I'm down on Texas. I just I think it'll be hard for them to win all of those games. or at least However many three or four of those games. Davis: Yeah. I I mean you can say Texas will be very good and still think that they hit the under because I mean that that under is one of the highest, if not the highest, in football. So don't think it's out of the realm to hit a ten win season. Just don't think that that's Jackson: Yeah. Davis: the median outcome there. Jackson: Yeah, I agree. All right, Bama. Disagreement here, Davis. What what's your deal? What's your deal Davis: Yep. So I I'm at Jackson: with Alabama? Davis: I'm at the under. Jackson's being a homer and is taking the over. line set at eight and a half. I have it at eight eight. So not not too strong of an under, but an under nonetheless. I mean I think it really just resides in the fact that there's a quarterback uncertainty and O line uncertainty and I I don't think that that makes per a very good recipe for success. I believe in the defense. I think they'll be very good. but, just just a lot of question marks at, obviously the most important position in football. Jackson: I agree. I agree with you. However, I think this and this is probably gonna bite me in the butt for saying this, but you look at the schedule, it's relatively easy until you get to that four game pretty brutal stretch with Georgia at Tennessee, A and at home and then at L S U. Davis: Yeah, that is a huge plus for them 'cause you're gonna know what you have in whichever quarterback that you roll with by the time that it matters. I don't think Jackson: Right. I mean go on Go ahead. Davis: I don't think we're seeing an FSU upset. I think I think what I did the the projections I had Alabama like eighty percent win there, which is I mean, which is pretty pretty tall. but by the time that you face By the time that you're an underdog for the first time, it's what, mid October. So there's definitely the ki the the potential that, those uncertainties at quarterback and a line have been answered and Jackson: Yeah. And a another positive about this schedule is I know it's earlier in the season with the questions at quarterback, obviously that yeah, it's not the the greatest thing, but two of the road games we play in the SEC are at Kentucky and at Mississippi. So I think I Davis: Yeah. Jackson: feel like that's pretty favorable for two of those road games to be against the bottom two the bottom teams in the SEC. so the the way I looked at this is I would I would say we'll be we'll win every game if you take out that four game stretch, Georgia, Tennessee, A and L S U. I f I feel comfortable. We should win Alab not we, I should say Alabama should win every game. and then I think we'll go two and two in those in that four game gauntlet in the middle of the season. So Davis: So I mean what what do you have it at? Eight point eight nine? Jackson: Eight pointy nine, yeah. Davis: Yeah. So yeah. I I Jackson: If I was picking wins and losses I would say it was higher, but since we did the probability thing, that's that's where I landed at. But I would say nine and three is definitely more likely for me. Definitely more likely Davis: Yeah. Jackson: than than eight and four. Davis: Yeah, and if you round these, I mean that yeah, nine and three median outcome, and then I'm at eight and four median outcome, so is what it is. Jackson: Alright, moving on to LSU. Davis: So LSU also at eight and half win total. I had it at eight point eight seven and Jackson had it at eight point one. So disagreement there. almost over a half win difference there, which I know that doesn't sound like a lot, but I mean Jackson: Yeah. too many question marks for me to be able to give them, I guess the benefit of the doubt of being like sure wins in in some of these games. Davis: Yeah. Jackson: I mean I think they take Eric Clemson, obviously they s get a Davis: Yeah. Jackson: gimme with Louisiana Tech and then they go to Ole Miss, they go to Auburn, they go to Tennessee and Arkansas, those are the road games. Davis: Yeah. Jackson: I don't think uncertainty is necessarily a bad thing. It's just you just don't know. I mean Davis: Yeah. So so the way that I looked at it, I don't necessarily think that they need to like dominate these the like similar opponents like Ole Miss, like Oklahoma. I mean I had relatively similar probabilities for those games, but I think that they're just going to out talent some of these smaller s these smaller teams. I mean they get Kentucky, they get Louisiana Tech. I'm not high on Clemson, so that was another higher one. Mississippi. So they do get some of the some of the lower ranked teams as well. So I think that the the schedule kinda favors them. but yeah, so I think I think it's probably closer to nine. Jackson: All right, moving on to A and we're both Well, you were higher on them than I was. Davis: Yeah, I think Tex A and M's gonna be one of the the teams that I know it says over, but it's one of those that once I looked at the total that I came out with, it was actually lower than I was expecting, which is kind of saying something given it was a decent bit over the projection. So I think Tex A and is a team that's that I'm gonna be higher on, even more than what my projections showed as well. I mean, biggest question mark I hit on it earlier was Marcel Reid's inconsistencies. Another year under the belt. I'm I'm expecting big things out of him and that that good receiving core. so they also get some Tennessee at home, Texas at home, so a lot of their key games are are in Calfield. So That's that's kind of where I stood with with them. Jackson: Yeah. I was kind of right on the number here. I think now you mentioned some of their home games. They also play at LSU, at Alabama, at Oklahoma, and at South Carolina. I know South Carolina's didn't have the best season last year, but that's that's a tough place to play, especially if you get at night. So Davis: Yeah. Jackson: I just think if they split split their their tough games, whether it's home or or the road, that's kinda where I where I had I thought they would just kinda go d right down the middle with their harder games. I mean Davis: Yeah. Jackson: the rest of their schedule, Missouri State, Arizona State, Kentucky at home, Arkansas at home, the Citadel, So I just had Davis: Yeah. And so and so with us already kind of putting out there that we think that kind of the the Vegas' middle tier is probably closer to the top tier than what Vegas says. with that there's a lot of these toss up games between the middle tier teams where you know it could go either way. So that's where we're putting in like forty five to fifty five percent win percentage. However, Texas AM gets Arizona State as their non conference game, which not high on Arizona State this year. So they're they're making up a lot of win equity there compared to like Texas who's playing Ohio State, Oklahoma's who's playing Michigan, and so on and so forth. So a lot of these totals come out to be, who do you play? When do you play and where do you play More so a pure this is how we're ranking these teams on a neutral playing field if we had to if we had to say so. Jackson: Mm. Davis: Yep. There's another one where I'm a a slight over and Jackson is even slightly over, have it as fair market value. so probably not a a strong take here from either one of us. but yeah, think that the talent, you know, obviously there. I think this was one of the ones that Like I said for Tex A and I put it in and I was thinking it was gonna be higher and it wasn't. When I put in on Miss, I was thinking it was actually gonna be lower than it was. So probably n don't have as strong of a take as what this projection indicates. So if I was just blindly doing this, I'd probably say fair market with you. Jackson: Yeah. Yeah. I I mentioned this earlier. I I think a lot of their talent is there. I know LSU took some guys, but ultimately I think it comes down to coaching and Pete Golding's for a full season. it's all the same except for the coaches, which is which is a huge part of it. So I'm not buying that stock yet. Davis: Yeah. And I can hear the argument now, them saying, well, they did really well in the the playoff without Kiffen. Totally different animal. Totally different animal. Jackson: Yeah. Yeah. Davis: I mean, this is a whole off season. You're you're starting from scratch with the the coaching staff. So they they could have Pete Golden could have lost to Georgia by forty or one and I don't think that that would have necessarily changed my like outlook on the fact that they're still having to start from scratch based on what Lane Kiffin left. You know what I mean? Jackson: Yeah, yeah. A hundred percent. so yeah, that's just kinda one a that's kind of one I just wanna I gotta see it before I believe it. So Davis: Yeah. Jackson: Oklahoma. Davis: Yeah. All right. Oklahoma, Vegas has them at seven and a half. I have them at eight three. So this is actually my strongest over. Jackson also has them as a as an over. so consensus. This is probably one of the one of the teams that we're highest on. said it in in the in the the breakdown of all the teams, but you know, love the defense. believe in Mateer. I think that's that's really that all that needs to be said. Jackson: Yeah, I agree. I mean, another year for Mathir in the system play you know, last year when he was healthy he was incredible. I think the the injury Davis: Yeah. Jackson: bug got him bad last year and I think with a healthy Matheer and some good returning players, offense and defense, I think I think Oklahoma will do will do well. I think they'll be good. Davis: Yeah. And we're not even saying that they like need to beat Georgia or or they're projected to beat Texas. I think that really what we're saying is that in this middle tier of SEC teams, I think that they'll be the best of the middle tier. And that's reflected. Jackson: Yeah. Yeah, I think they'll be the best one of the best of the middle tier for sure. and we're talking about a seven and a half total here. I mean we're talking about eight and four for Oklahoma. Like you said, it weren't y we don't think they're gonna necessarily run the table, but I think they're I think they're better than seven and a half wins for sure. Davis: Yeah. John Matteir broke his hand and missed like four games last year and they went nine and three, right? In the regular season? Ten and two? Ten Jackson: Yeah. And two, yeah. Davis: and two, yeah. So I was I was shocked that this was a a seven and a half. so yeah. Str strong Jackson: I agree. Davis: over for me. Really liked over there. Jackson: Yeah, I agree. All right, Tennessee. Davis: Tennessee, another one of those middle tier teams at seven and a half. had as a a slide over according to projections. I'd probably not touching this one though. with the QB uncertainty. Jackson: Yeah, I I was kinda right on the number. Davis: So not really a strong take for me either way. Jackson: I don't have a strong feel either way for Tennessee either. I I just think unknown at quarterback at the quarterback position is is something that you know I Davis: I think the upside's there. Jackson: I the upside's definitely there. The upside's Davis: downside's also there though, so Jackson: But they what'd they go last year? Eight and four? Davis: Yeah. I had some tough losses late or late in games. So Jackson: Yeah, I think people are just kinda starting to figure out the the Josh Heipel system. And Davis: That's not what I want to hear as an Auburn fan. Gullish came from from Tennessee. He was the Jackson: yeah. my gosh, yeah it is. Yeah it is. It is the same thing. Yeah. Davis: He was the he was the OC with with I'm drawing a blank on the quarterback's name, but when Tennessee upset Alabama like three years ago. Henan Hooker and Jackson: Yeah. You're right, with with hype. Yes. Hen and Hooker. Yeah, he was. Davis: and the Bolitnikov winner that flamed out in the NFL. God Jalen Hyatt. Jackson: yeah. I got Yeah deal. All right, that's right. Yeah, I I just I don't know. I I Tennessee's just got too many too many question marks for me. I said they were flying under the radar and I'm kinda on that side too. I just they didn't do great last year. I don't think Davis: Yeah. I I I think that there's just Jackson: they added any huge pieces. so Davis: I think part of the reason they're flying under the radar is that there's a lack of strong takes on either side. and we're doing it too. We're kinda avoiding avoiding them. Jackson: Yeah. Yeah. Right. Yeah. Yeah. So who knows? Davis: Not not a lot of conviction with them, it it seems like. All Jackson: Yeah. Davis: right. This is the this is the number that I saw that seven and a half didn't make any sense to me. So Florida, seven and a half. also seven and a half. Tennessee, Oklahoma, Ole Miss. I I don't think that Florida is on that level. Jackson: Florida seems to get the benefit of the doubt on this kind of thing every year, I feel like. Like e Davis: Yeah. Jackson: every year people are high a little bit higher on Florida than they really need to be. and like I said, Davis: Yeah. Jackson: they've lost they've had a losing season four out the last five years. So with a new coach Davis: And I think they can still be good. I think that they could be like a a good team that like you look back and you're like that that was a team that fought hard and was like in every game and still wins six games. You know what I mean? And you're Jackson: Yeah. Yeah. Davis: like you have high expectations going into next year. But seven and a half, that's that's I was surprised to see that. So we're both in agreement with the under here. I'm at right under seven and and you're at just a hair over over seven, but Either way, under the seven and a half. Jackson: Missouri. Davis: So this is one that I had the over on slightly and then it was kinda on the contingency that Ahmad Hardy's plan. And the Jackson: Yeah, a hundred percent. Davis: the the further we get into the year, and the less we've heard, I'm starting to maybe walk back that Missouri take a little bit. so I have it as an over. I I I'm I'm probably not actually thinking it's an over unless we have some great news from Ahmad Hardy. Jackson: Yeah, I mean I had it slightly over as well. I think you have some winnable home games in there. And Davis: Yeah, Kansas out a s out of conference, so that's that's a that's a big win equity there. Jackson: Yeah. I think that's a win. So I think I mean they they're they're starting in I think they're starting four and Davis: Yeah. Jackson: Possibly five and Davis: Which is what they did last year too, right? And they sort of like five and a Jackson: think so. I think so. Davis: Yeah. Jackson: And then and then you have Kentucky at home. To me that's another win. Davis: The schedule does play out nice for them, I will say that. Jackson: Yeah, so if they steal one on the road against like Arkansas or Ole Miss is tough. Davis: Yeah. Jackson: got A at home. I don't know. I think Davis: So Jackson: I think I can s definitely see five to six on there. And if they can if Hardy can get healthy late in the year, maybe the they may be able to steal one of those bigger games at home. So we'll see. I'm not super, super confident on the Missouri read, but Davis: Yeah. Yeah. Jackson: All right, moving on. Auburn. Davis: Let's hear the overtake from you. I like it. Let's Jackson: We get back to Davis: hear the overtake. Jackson: I don't I don't wanna give the overtake. Davis: I wanna hear the overtake. I probably don't wanna hear I probably don't wanna make the bear case, but I might I might have to. Jackson: I just think Auburn's very hard to beat at home. So a lot of these games that they have at home, I give them a a pretty good chance to to get the win. Probably better than a lot of these teams when they're playing at home. For example, LSU is a game that I think Auburn could definitely win. Davis: I think you might just be having like bad flashbacks from from the Alabama games 'cause we hadn't beat anybody worth note worth of note at home in in a while. But yeah. I mean we'll see. I I'm Jackson: I I don't know. I as a Bama fan Auburn's always scares me at home. And I know it I'm not just talking about Alabama. I just think p if you guys are let's if Auburn is good if Auburn is good late in the year when L S U comes to town on October twenty fourth, I think that is a scary spot for L SU. Davis: Only problem is it's an eleven AM kickoff. I would have loved that to be a night game. Jackson: Is it really? Davis: Yeah. Yeah. Jackson: That's tough. That may change my that may change my over my overtake. Davis: Yeah. Yeah. So I'll I'll guess I'll give give my take and I'll start it by saying the last like three or four years I've been heavy all burnovers and I've missed on every single one of those. So maybe maybe I've learned my lesson or I don't know. I guess we'll see. But Jackson: I've been the opposite. I've been pretty confident and Auburn underperforming in these last few years. But I kind of feel differently this year. I don't know if it's Goalish or Byron Brown that that Davis: Let's hope you're right then. Jackson: I mean, they came into Tuscaloosa a few years ago and had us on the edge of our seat, so Davis: Yeah. I I I think this is similar. So I think that the that this team situation is very similar to Florida, where I think you can come away from the season and saying, say, that was a better team than the record suggested. There's high hopes going into next season. You believe in the coach. The only difference is that Florida's got a seven and a half win total and Auburn's got a six and half window t win total. Those should have been even. If if if if you ask me. Jackson: Yeah, I would agree. I think I think it's pretty similar. I I would say I would group Auburn and Florida in the same boat Davis: Yeah. Jackson: in terms of season expectations and how many games they can win or lose. So I think Davis: Yeah. Jackson: that's a pretty accurate accurate take. got some got some tough, tough road games on there as well. at Tennessee, at Georgia, Add'll Miss and at Bama. Davis: Yeah. Jackson: Those are all gonna be tough to win. Davis: We got a we got a brutal stretch in the middle where we go. Tennessee, Georgia, LSU, Ole Miss. I think that's like four and five weeks. We got a buy in there somewhere. So if we start if we like if we if we lose to I keep saying we, if if Auburn doesn't Jackson: No, I think. Davis: win against Florida, it's I mean, there's a chance that we're starting like two and five and it's and and there's the the morale is not high. Jackson: I think I think I think that's big for Davis: But Jackson: for Auburn as well. I think I think Auburn's gotta start what is it? One, two, three, four Baylor, Southern Miss, Florida, Bandy. That's gotta be four. Yeah. Davis: That Florida game is so pivotal. I mean, it it changes what you think about the season. you start four and going into that stretch and you lose the next four. You're at four and four with like three winnable games. Three like projected Vegas favored games. you start three and one and now you're at three and five and and Jackson: Yeah. Davis: it's I mean that's it's the difference between an over and under. Jackson: It's gonna be tough. It's gonna be tough w with the road games, if they don't start hot. So Davis: Yep. Jackson: we'll see. Davis: Yep. All right. South Carolina. Vegas has them at six and a half. I mean I had at six three four. So slide under and yeah, I don't ha I don't have a a strong strong lean here. I and I it doesn't really look like you d you do either. We're pretty Jackson: No, I just think South Carolina's one of those teams that can that can beat anybody and they can lose to anybody. You know, they have like we said earlier, they have a lot of talent, all over the field on offense and defense, but They had that talent last year. so I don't know where the hole's gonna be on that team. It's gonna be somewhere and l like last year is the offensive line. So if it's if it's something like the offensive line again, I could see this going I could see them winning six games or five games. But you Davis: Yeah. Jackson: know, if they button up the O line and And can do well on defense and Lenora Sellers has a good year, then I think they could they could win eight games, maybe. I may be overspeaking there, but you get what I'm saying. I I think I Davis: Yeah. Jackson: think they're they have the highest ceiling out of these bottom teams, and I was also think have one of the one of the lower floors. So it'll be a fun watch this year. I Davis: Yeah, I would I would agree with that take. Yeah. Jackson: I would not I would not write in I would not mark it mark South Carolina down as a win on anyone's schedule. so Davis: Yeah. So next four teams are are definitely a a clear cut bottom tier. Vandy, Kentucky, Mississippi State, Arkansas. I'm pretty aligned with Vandy. and what it appears that you're doing is is you're you think that there's a resurgence of the bottom tier. You're strong overs for for each of these each of these Jackson: Yeah, like I said earlier, I just think a lot of these If these teams gotta win, well, they don't have to, but I think some of these lower teams are gonna find some wins at home. and maybe I don't know if I would if I was picking the games, if I would have these teams winning six and seven or five or whatever they're whatever I had them at, but I just think, for example, the percentage that Fandy beats Arkansas. I would say that's fifty five, sixty percent chance they beat him at home. Davis: Yeah. Jackson: Old Mitt or maybe that's a bad example. NC State I think is a is a win. at Florida, I definitely don't think is a is an easy Davis: Yeah. Jackson: win for Florida. even Ole Miss at home. I mean you never know. people were down on this team last year. I know it's a different team, but I think their win total Projected wind total last year was right around seven, seven and a half. Davis: Yeah. Jackson: which is a little lower this year, but what they went ten nine games last year. So I'm a little Davis: Yeah. Jackson: higher on Vandy than than the the other bottom dwellers, if you will, but I don't think we're seeing another Cinderella run by any means. Davis: Yeah. Yeah, Kentucky, I'm I'm under. Arkansas, I'm under. I mean, for all the reasons that we talked about earlier. Mississippi I actually am and over. Four and a half, which is the same as Kentucky and and Arkansas. I think that they're better than them. I I mean I I I think Camario Taylor has showed enough flashes that on his good days I think he's going to equate you some wins that you might not have have gotten. So I do think that they can be very up and down. but I think being up and down with a four and a half win total is more than enough to hit the over. Jackson: Yeah, I mean they were five and eight last year. they were one and seven in in SEC play. So adding that extra game is probably gonna or not probably, I think it'll definitely hurt them a little bit, when you're talking about win totals, but I don't think they're as bad as as people think they are. And again with Kentucky and Arkansas, there's just a lot of unknown. I know that's been kind of the topic of the Topic of conversation and probably will continue to be the topic of conversation. Well, it's it's not even that. It's like who really knows? I mean, all Davis: Sounds like we don't know anything, do we? No. Yeah. Jackson: these teams every year are just brand new, with all these transfers. So I mean Kentucky, Arkansas, I like both hires. I just, can't strongly give you an opinion either way until I see something on the field. So I'll just leave it at that for those two. Davis: Yeah. So this is kind of the aggregate between both of us, just the average of the two, you know. I think the the key takeaways are that we're we're under on Texas. and we're probably over on that middle tier, which is Texas Jackson: Yeah. Davis: A and Ole Miss, Oklahoma. and then we're both pretty strong unders on Florida. So I think if you're gonna take anything away from it, it that's probably probably the route to go in. Jackson: Yeah, I would agree. Davis: Alright, so that'll do Jackson: Hit me. Davis: it for the projections. gonna end it with that same game that we played last time. hope we don't pick Jackson: If if that last episode drops before this one, 'cause the last one was a little a little shaky, so this one this one may drop first. But anyways, same game. you wanna briefly explain it again. Davis: Yeah, so in the theme of the SEC, we each chose an SEC player, could be former or present. I'm gonna give you five hints. They each get progressively easier, and we'll see what hint you get it on. and everybody listening can play along too. All right, so SEC player. hint one's pretty hard, but if you get it on this one it'll be Y you need to go to the lottery, buy a lottery ticket. so I was born in the same state where I would eventually play college football at. Jackson: What? I mean, I don't know where any of these guys were born unless this is like A well known thing. Davis: just give me somebody. Jackson: I know, I'm to just say give me the I'm trying to think if there's like someone I was born in the same state where I would eventually play college football, right? That's the hint. Davis: Yeah, yeah. Jackson: I don't know. Go on, Lacey. Davis: No what not flying. All Jackson: Mm-hmm. Davis: right. Number two, I helped my team upset the number one team in the country in triple overtime and I accounted for four touchdowns. Jackson: Michael Crabtree. it's SEC. It's SEC. Davis: No, not not an SEC player. Jackson: So wait, hold on. Say four touchdowns, triple overtime, one. Davis: Yeah. Number one team too. Huge upset. Er maybe not huge, but big upset. Number one team. First two are hard and then they start to get little a mo a little more like only applicable to like this one player. Jackson: You said three or four overtimes. Davis: three overtimes, four touchdowns. Jackson: Sean Marino? no, we weren't. Davis: they also lost. Jackson: No, they won that game. The game I'm thinking about they won. They won. In Tuscaloosa. Yeah. Davis: Georgia lost. Okay. that went into overtime? Yeah. Jackson: Double over I think it was double overtime. It may been three. Davis: Yeah. All right, hint number three. I finished second in the Heisman voting in back to back seasons, but didn't win. But never won the award. Jackson: I feel like I should know this, but I'm just blanket. Davis: Pre twenty ten, but Jackson: Okay. Davis: post two thousand. So in that Jackson: Okay, that that's a little easier. Davis: Yeah, all these are gonna all our all of our players from now on are gonna be post two thousand. Just Jackson: Vencia. Davis: Nah. That's a pretty good guess. hint number four. I shared the college backfield with two other NFL players, both of whom would eventually have thousand yard rushing seasons in the NFL. Jackson: Jason Campbell. Davis: No, that's a good I mean that that's true, but no, that's I think you're thinking I th Jackson: Am I not gonna get this? Davis: I think you're thinking wrong position, which is kinda what I intentionally did early on. Jackson: Four touchdowns. I really was thinking running back, but now I'm just kinda spitballing. Davis: Yeah, it's running back. the fifth the fifth one is a giveaway. I'll give you another guess. Pre twenty ten running back back to back seasons coming in second. Two team two teammates, also running backs, had thousand yard rushing seasons in the NFL. So that backfield was just crazy. Current yeah. Jackson: Derek McFadden. Davis: Yeah. So hit number five. I wore number five for Arkansas and was selected fourth overall and then fell down. Jackson: Pretty good. It's pretty good. Davis: Yeah. Jackson: Okay. I got one. You ready? Davis: All right, let's do it. Jackson: This guy scored a touchdown in Super Bowl fift no. Davis: Are you gonna give me the team? Jackson: a touchdown and Super Bowl forty eight for the Seattle Seahawks. Probably pretty good first hint. Actually if you don't have Davis: Yeah. Forty eight. So that would have been that would have been Seahawks Broncos. So that would have been Russell Wilson, Marshawn Lynch. Jackson: I would not have got I I didn't remember that this even happened, but Davis: Receivers re three Jackson: I think that was the craziest hint. Davis: receivers were Doug Baldwin, don't think he was SEC, Golden Pate. Jackson: Hmm. Probably too easy of a hand if you actually know these receivers. Need a guess, Davis. Davis: Yeah, I'll guess Dude, I don't even have it. Jackson: can't just name all the Sea Ox receivers. I need a guess. Davis: Yeah, I don't even I don't even know where to go. Well the fact that I know that it's the Seahawks and I'm like I know that whatever guess I'm gonna guess they're not on the Seahawks 'cause I can't think of it yet. but Jackson: Yeah. Davis: I'll I'll go. I'll just shout out AJ Green here. I know that he never played for the Seahawks, but that's my guess. Let's hear let's hit hear hit number two. Jackson: All these hands are pretty easy. I'm coming up with this on the fly here, so I'm trying to come This player also won a national championship in college. Davis: Okay. Alabama receiver. LSU receiver, no, don't think it would have been him. Jackson: These are some pretty tough hints. The Seahawks one was tough if you didn't know it. I'm about to g it about Davis: You Jackson: to get easier. Davis: you gave me like hints that are like only applicable to one player and so I can only guess one player. You know? Like my guess or my hint early on was like was born in the same state. You could have guessed anybody. And I just Yeah, and I just have no name on the top of my head. No. All right, let's hear it let's hear it hit number three. Jackson: Yeah. Okay. I came up with this on the fly. Next time I'll come up with it before before we start. All right, let me give you another hint. Let me give you another hint. You probably need you're never you're not gonna guess this off the two if you didn't get the Seahawks one. All right, he was a first round pick who became a Pro Bowl kick returner and receiver. Davis: Yeah. Jackson: It's a tougher player. It's a tougher player. Davis: He was good in the SEC. Kick returner Jackson: He was a first round pick. Davis: first round pick. Jackson: Yeah. Davis: Pro bowl kick returner and receiver. Jackson: Won a national championship, yes. Scored in the Super Bowl. Davis: Jacoby Jones. Jackson: This player played alongside Tim Tebow at Florida. Davis: Yeah. I forgot like I Jackson: Okay, yeah, you're right. Davis: just completely forgot that he was on that the Seahawks that year. And so so I didn't even Jackson: I did too. I like Davis: like go through Seahawks players. When I think Percy Jackson: Yeah. Davis: Harvin, like I I it was the short stint on the Vikings. Is like Jackson: Yeah, same. Davis: all I think about. I completely forgot. But yeah, he was I remember cause he was out of the playoffs like a lot with the migraines. That was when like the migraine problem started happening. Jackson: yeah, that's right. Davis: And then and then came back for the Seahawks, in the Super Bowl. Yeah. Jackson: Yeah, sorry. Next one will be a little easier. Davis: Yeah. And then and then when you said national championship, I didn't even go back f far enough for Florida. And so I was like Jackson: Yeah, I f I was trying to throw you off what the national championship said. Figured you would think I would go Bama. Davis: Yeah. No, that was good. I should have got it earlier. Yep. All right. Jackson: Alright. Well that'll that'll do it. Anything else? Davis: I think next pod we'll go through what, Big Ten? ACC? Yeah, we'll Jackson: Big ten or Easy C one of them. Davis: do one of those. We'll continue to go through the the power four conferences and then then we'll be right around the corner from week zero and we'll give you Jackson: I don't know. Davis: a week zero pod and some maybe some other award predictions and and whatnot. So stay tuned. Jackson: All right, Davis. See you next time, bro. Davis: All right, so