Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 496 - 4/21/26 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 496 - 4/21/26 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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54321 All systems Go with Josh Applebaum starts now.
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Hello and welcome to episode 496 of the All Systems Go sports
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Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
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I am your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on, everyone?
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Happy Tuesday, another day here in the arena, guys.
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And we are now just two days away from the NFL draft in this
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number two pick. I keep going back to it because
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every day and I'm almost kicking myself for not almost fading
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this draft steam, but this number two pick continues to get
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more and more crazy and insane by the day.
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Again, we all know Mendoza, quarterback, obviously champion
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Hoosiers, there is going to go one overall, he's -20,000 to go
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to the Raiders, but what are The Jets going to do at #2?
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And this has been unbelievable because it's been so back and
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forth. Now go back a week ago and David
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Bailey was a pretty big favorite here, the edge rusher from Texas
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Tech. So I was, when I give the
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update, I always got to just go back to the beginning and let
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you guys know, you know what we've seen so far, cuz it's
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unbelievable. Bailey was the favorite -150 you
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go back like a month ago, Arvel Reese was the favorite -175 -,
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200 Then we flipped, of course, to Arvel Reese going back to a
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favorite. And yesterday Arvel Reese say
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that 10 times. Fast was like -175 even -200
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guys, I, I went to ESPN.com this morning as I always do.
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I wake up and I look at the lines and I go to ESPN.
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I read the headlines and there's a headline here, quote Jets GM
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don't read into cancel visit with DE prospect Bailey.
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So basically this, this, you know, GM of The Jets said quote
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in Ricardo David. We had good touch points of them
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at the combine, went to his pro day, had a dinner with him kind
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of juggling our 30 visits and how to use them.
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I wouldn't look too much into a cancellation because there were
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other ones that we may have changed as well.
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So as. Soon as that news broke that
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basically the GM of The Jets is saying don't look into it too
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much. As in, you know, maybe you
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thought we're definitely not going to draft him.
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While not so fast, maybe we will draft him.
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I went right back to DraftKings. And David Bailey is back to
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being the favorite to go number two overall -125 S Arvel Reese
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is -115 this is where the books get you because it's going to be
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Bailey or Reese. But if you want to bet it today,
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both guys are minus numbers. But Bailey is now officially the
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favorite here -125 versus Arvel Reese -115 So again, we're going
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to get an answer to this in, in, you know, 48 hours.
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You know, what was that? Two days, 2 1/2 days, basically.
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But unbelievable how this thing goes back and forth.
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Either either The Jets are so stupid and truly they don't know
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who they're going to take, or this is a, you know, an epic
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smokescreen here. But continue to see this Bailey
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versus Reese back and forth again.
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Go to bed one day, wake up the next day, the the other guy's
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favorite. So something to keep an eye out
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for. And hopefully we can we can take
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advantage. And I'm actually, on the other
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hand, glad that we haven't bet this thing yet.
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Obviously, if you got Bailey plus money, you're feeling good.
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You know, you can make a case. Do you want to buy low on our
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Val reset, another book that might be giving you plus money?
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You could definitely make a case for that.
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But I think it's just a perfect textbook.
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The example of we all want to bet the NFL draft, or at least a
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lot of us do. But the longer you wait,
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hopefully the more information you get, the final mock drafts
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will be coming out today and tomorrow.
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And really it's that it's that day of steam because I keep
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going back to the NBA draft for a few years ago where Jabari
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Smith was the favorite pretty much the entire time to go first
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overall. And then the day of the draft, a
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ton of Paolo Bank Arrow steam came in, made Bank Arrow the
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favorite. So let's try to continue to be
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patient and continue to monitor the slate movement.
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Hopefully that'll help us catch some tickets.
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Now NFL draft aside couple days from now we'll be betting on it,
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but let's get right back to Major League Baseball.
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Now I do have a three pack of bets for you guys, all three of
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which are short money line favorite.
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So let's try to go 2 and one each out of winning night.
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Unfortunately couldn't go to one last night. 1 and 2 -. 1 point O
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9 units. Had a great deal with the
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Cubbies. Cubbies came through 5 to 1.
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Our guy Colin Ray pitch to Gem had some some nice clutch hits
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from the Cubs. So that was a nice winner, but
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both the Rays and the Guardians really never close.
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Although Cleveland I think got out to 1, nothing lead.
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But Cleveland loses 9:00 to 2:00 to Houston.
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Rays lose 6 to 1 to Cincinnati. 2 bets there that again, we're
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pretty much no shows for us. Didn't have to sweat it.
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You knew by like the 3rd or 4th inning neither of those really
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coming true, but did get the Cubs.
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So 1 and 2 - 1 point O, 9 units again, 3 pack.
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Sometimes you're going to go one and two.
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You really just try to avoid the O and threes.
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But we'll see if we can get back in the green, eke out a winning
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day for today. So that being said, let's waste
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no more time. I got a three pack for you and
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we'll see if we can catch some tickets here on a big Tuesday
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now first, but on the board, I'm going right back to the Trop
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guys, Cincinnati Reds at the Tampa Bay Rays 6:40 PM Eastern
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Time tonight. Let's set the stage.
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Talk, splits, line move system, matches, juice reel.
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I'll give you my play for this one.
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So Reds come in 15 and 8 on the year.
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They won last night's Inter League series opener 6 to 1.
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As I mentioned, unfortunately for those of you like me who are
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on the Reds didn't love seeing it, but they came through.
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The Reds did as a + 105 road dog rematch here.
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For tonight, Reds are going to go with the righty and former
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top pick Chase Burns. I think he was second overall a
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couple years ago. He's one and one with a 2.42 ER
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A raised. Meanwhile, who are 12 and 10 are
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going to go with the lefty Steven Matz.
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He's 3 and O with a 3.8 O ER A. So we sit.
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Across the market here, well, this game opened at basically a
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pick em. It was mostly -110 both sides,
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you know, I did see a couple books that were slightly Tampa
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Bay maybe -115 or so. But overall, we'll split the
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difference. Basically, market setting books
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were a -, 110. Both sides pick and play.
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So I always talk about, again, a pick and play, whether it's a
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pick em with a spread of 0. And in a football or basketball
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game or baseball or hockey -110 both sides.
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Where does the line move? Because you know, pros who set
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their own numbers and play their discrepancy plays, if they have
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the game as a pick em as well, they're not going to bet it
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because they have no edge over the book.
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That's what you know. You always got to remember the
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wise guys are only betting if they have an edge.
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If they don't have an edge, they're not playing it.
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So if it's no edge, they're not going to bet the game.
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But sometimes wise guys have slightly different numbers than
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the odds makers. The.
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Sports books here. So if they have a team -115 -,
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120 and they open at a pick em, they're going to hit that team
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'cause that line to move in their directions.
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That's what it looks like is happening here in favor of the
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Red Legs. So I'm going Reds guys, the Reds
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open -110 pick them. Now the Reds are up to -115 and
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I'm even seeing a couple shops creep up closer to -120 So this
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line never, you know, flip to Tampa Bay -115 -, 120.
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It's only move towards Cincinnati.
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That tells me even though it's not a massive, you know, $0.20
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team move, but all movement liability has been on the Reds
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in the spot. So it looks like a pick them to
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favorite wiseguy play. Again, we always talk about the
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dog to fave. This would be a pick them to
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fave play. If you look at the splits in
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particular, money line bets look pretty good at circa.
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Only 40% of money line bets, but 50% of money line dollars out in
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the desert around Cincy. So it tells us the bigger,
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sharper wagers. Also going with the Reds here
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also, as I always mentioned, it's interesting for me to
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monitor, you know, if you bet a money line, you're like, hey,
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just win the game by one or more or it doesn't really matter,
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just win by one. But it is interesting to see
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where wise guys are leaning in terms of the spread.
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So the run line here looks actually pretty good on Cincy as
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well. They're -1 1/2, so got to win by
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two or more, but it's plus 150. It's a pretty big payout and
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good splits at both DK and circa DK 39% spread bets, 74% spread
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dollars on Cincy. And over at Circa, 50% spread
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bets, 91% spread dollars on on Cincy.
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Here again, I'm just going money line.
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So I got the Reds -115 at Bet MGM, but again, if you're bold,
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looks like wise guys do like Reds by two or more.
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Now, since he as we always like to look at in these inter league
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games, lean toward betting a favorite in inter league play.
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Doesn't mean you bet every favorite doesn't mean every
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favorite comes true and and cashes in an inter league game.
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But the lack of familiarity typically, typically is a
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benefit toward the better team, which would be since he based on
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the the minus number and then also you have a favorite low
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total, very low total of 7 1/2 here at open at 8:00 got down to
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7 1/2. So we have the line moving
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towards since he has the. Favorite and the total.
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You know, showing liability on the under.
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So hopefully this is a you know, 4 nothing Cincinnati Reds win
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something like that, But that would also be fear amount of
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expected run score more likely to come from quote UN quote that
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better team. Now the red legs.
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Did you know they are 9 and two on the road this year.
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That is the best Rd. record in baseball.
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Where are they at tonight? They're on the road.
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So we have a pick em to a favorite with since he we got
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really good bet splits up on both this money line and the
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spread. We got correlative betting
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favorite low total. We got interleague favorite.
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We got the best Rd. team in baseball.
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And then, oh, by the way, little cherry on top popped open juice
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reel and noticed a 17% sharp mush edge on the Reds.
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So 17% more of the sharper winning batters also going with
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the red legs. So I played the rays last night
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and they let me down. Let's let's see if hopefully the
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the Reds can win two in a row, get a win for us tonight.
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I got Cincinnati -115 on the money line and again that was
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that bet MGM next one for you. This one looks gross, but it is
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so sharp and I hope you guys know by know me by now.
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You know I'm a you may or may not know you probably do if you
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listen to this pod, but I'm a I'm a Bostonian.
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I'm a actually technically a western mass kid, but born and
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raised New England. I love my Red Sox, Bruins,
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Celtics, patriots again, if you're a Bruins fan tight it's a
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huge night because they better bounce back and get a win after
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blowing it in the first game against the Sabres.
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But I hope, you know, I never recommend or highlight a sharp
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bet or for something just because it's my favorite team,
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because I learned long ago when I first bet on sports, I want
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it's always bet the Patriots, Bruins, Celtics, Red Sox,
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because I'm like, hey, I want to win money and I want to watch my
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team win. But I learned very early on, you
10:21
never want to inject your bias because it's going to talk you
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into bad bets and out of good ones because then you don't want
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to bet against your team because you don't want them to lose.
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And then you you know, if the other side sharp, you layoff
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just because you don't want your team to lose.
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But again, when you're true to that model, when you do kind of
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stumble on a game where your favorite team is sharp, then you
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get excited to sweat that team. So I'm talking Red Sox, Yankees
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tonight, 6:45 PM Eastern Time at Fenway Park.
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And I'm going Boston here. And they look really, really
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sharp, fit in our model. So Yankees come in 13 and 9 on
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the year, just swept the Royals. They won that series finale 7 to
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nothing as a -, 155 home favorite.
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Meanwhile, the Sox 9 and 13 on the year losing record.
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Did you split A4 game set against the Tigers.
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They won yesterday's Patriots Day Boston Marathon game 8 to 6
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as a -135 home favorite. So pitching match up for
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tonight. Yankees Yankees going with the
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ready ready Lewis heel again. I'm one of those people who
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thought it was Lewis Gill for so many years until I realized that
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is Lewis heel Gil but Owen 1 ERA of seven for heel Red Sox trying
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to go with the lefty Connolly early one and O 2.29 ERA.
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So what have you seen across the market in this one?
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Well, the Yankees open has a very short -115 road favorite
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with the Red Sox around a -, 1 O 5 home dog.
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And the public is saying Yankees all day.
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Yankees got the better record. It's a very short number.
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So you are getting right now 71% of money line bets going with
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the Yankees. However, you would think opening
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minus one, 1571% of bets. Yankees are up to you know -120
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-, 130, right? Nope, the lines completely gone
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the other way toward Boston. So the Red Sox went from -1 O 5
12:03
dog to now a -, 125 home favorite.
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Some shops even close to -130. So if 71% of bets on the Yankees
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lay in -115 why are the odds makers saying, oh, you like -115
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here, I'll give you Yankees, you know, plus one O plus one O 5 +
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110 + 115. No, the odds makers aren't just
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being nice. They're moving that number
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allowing the public to continue to double down on the Yankees
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because it looks like smart money here is going with the Red
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Sox. So Boston only getting 29% of
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bets at DraftKings, but 52% of dollars, which coincides with
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that dog to favor reverse line move over at Circa.
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Red Sox look sharp as well, 39% bets, 70% dollars.
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So about DK and Circa showing a very good low bets higher dollar
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split in favor of Boston. I do have a good system here.
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When both teams are coming off a win.
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Take the home favorite in the opening game of a new series.
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That system is 167 and one O 462% with a 3% ROI since the
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start of 2024. Connelly Early, you may not know
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much about this kid, but he doesn't throw 100 miles an hour.
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But he just old school like a Clayton Kershaw kind of guy.
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He's been great, came up last year and was good as a rookie.
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Starting off good against again this year.
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Knock on wood, but he's giving up one earned run or fewer in
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four of his 5 starts this season.
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You know, the Yankees going up against early a lefty, they're
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only hitting $1.85 against lefties this year.
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That's 28th in baseball. And how many teams are in
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baseball? 30?
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So they are third worst in Major League Baseball against lefties.
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So Publix on Yankees, but Lions going to the Red Sox.
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And the Red Sox also are a 22% sharp mush edge from our friends
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at Juice Real. So not all up here, guys.
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I jumped on Red Sox a little bit earlier today -118 at Bally Bet.
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But again, shop around. Most books now around -125 but
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let's go Sox and then and ain't broke.
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Don't fix a play. Let's go right back to Wrigley
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Field. 7:40 PM Eastern Time tonight.
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Phillies visiting the Cubbies now.
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Cubs 13 and 9 on the year came through for us last night with a
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5 to 1 win over the Phills. Came through as a -, 115 home
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favorite in the rematch tonight, the Phills were 8 and 14 on the
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year. They're going with the lefty Hey
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Zeus Lizardo, who's one and three with a 7.94 ER, a Cubbies,
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meanwhile, going to go with the fellow southpaw Shota and
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Managa, who is 1 and one with a 2.45 ERA.
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What? Are we seeing across the market
14:30
here? Well, this game open cubbies
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listed as a pretty modest -120 home favorite Philly around a +
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100 Rd. dog and again, what a what a wise guy say do they say
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yeah Philly struggled Cubs playing well.
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Therefore, you know, Philly's kind of in a bio spot to break
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back breakthrough and hit that number and again bring it back
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down to a pick em or close to a. Pick em or two.
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Wise guys say man, Philly is really in a bad spot right now.
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Cubs are playing great. That's a good number to jump on
14:56
the Cubs and 'cause that line to go up toward Chicago.
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It looks like the ladder because the Cubbies opening -120 have
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now been bet up to -125 -, 130. I see one book at -135.
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So clearly this line is going toward the Cubbies.
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Now you look at circa 90% bets, 95% dollars on the Cubs.
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So it tells me you got heavy one way action, low bets, higher
15:19
dollars. Pro and Joe split in favor of
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Chicago. Here, have a good system match
15:23
on the Cubs if you are a sweet spot favorite -122 - 140 who
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made the playoffs the previous season and the opponent also
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made the playoffs the previous season.
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You take that home favorite. That system is four and two this
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year, 67 percent, 17% ROI. But more importantly, since the
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start of last season, it's 38 and 838 and 1670% win rate, 24%
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ROI. Hopefully a managa pitch as
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well. Cubs can get to Lizardo, knock
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on wood, but Chicago does have the better bats, hitting 251 on
15:56
the year, 117 runs scored, 342 on base percentage.
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Philly only hitting 2/20/76 runs scored, a 301 OBP.
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Cubs six and three in night games.
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Phillies 4:00 and 9:00 in night games.
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Chicago's. Also hitting 260.
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Three against lefties, that's the 6th best and Major League
16:16
Baseball Phillies only hitting $1.76 against lefties that ranks
16:20
29th. Lastly, you look at this
16:22
matchup, dig a little deeper into the starting pitchers.
16:26
You look at Lizardo again, not good numbers, the area of nearly
16:29
eight, but the Phillies are one and three and has four starts
16:32
this year. Meanwhile, Imanaga last three
16:35
starts, he has an ERA of one point O 6.
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He's given up two earned runs in 17 innings pitch.
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So hopefully Imanaga pitch as well again here at Wrigley.
16:44
And then lastly, 7% sharp mush edge on the Cubs at juice rail.
16:48
What I like even more popped open rhythm.
16:50
I have two rhythm recommendations on the Cubbies,
16:53
one of which is a green star lightning bolt smart smart
16:57
signal. So looks like the AI model also
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likes the Cub here. Cubs here tonight.
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So you Add all up again going back to the well, hopefully the
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Cubs can get another winner for us at Wrigley.
17:06
I got Cubs -123 at Valley Bet again, shop around some books
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closer to -130 So Reds, Red Sox, Cubs try to get 2 out of three
17:17
and get back in the green for today.
17:20
So that about does. It for episode 496 of the all
17:23
systems go sports betting podcast powered by rhythm.
17:26
This is the part of the pod where we wrap things up and I
17:28
always start first by saying thank you.
17:30
Thank you for listening thank you for tuning in thank you for
17:33
grinding in the arena with me every single day through the
17:36
good and the bad, the UPS and the downs, the the great wins,
17:39
the heartbreaking losses. You know in life you got good
17:42
days and bad days. Some days you just grind sports
17:45
betting, same thing. You have great winning days,
17:47
rough losing days, or you're just grinding.
17:49
But either way, guys, we we host this pod every day and you guys,
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TuneIn and we, we put our heads together and try to look for
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sharp, data-driven plays with our head and not our heart.
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That's what I'm I'm very grateful for.
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So if you do enjoy this pod, hopefully you value the
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insights. Please think about helping me
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Click the rate and review. If you want to leave a comment
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You want to click the follow button.
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That way you get a pop up alert as soon as the pod drops each
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or retweet the pod when I put it out on Twitter.
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Very much appreciate any or all of those things.
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Next, if you enjoy the style of sports betting breakdown
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data-driven sharp contrarian betting, focusing on line
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movement, bet split system matches, making bets with our
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head and not our heart, taking a contrarian approach.
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If this style of betting has appealed to you, you want to
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learn more about data-driven. Betting or maybe if?
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Someone in your life who could use some data-driven tips.
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I would love for you to go to Amazon.com and type in the
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everything guide to sports betting or the NFL sharp betting
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playbook. Those are the two books that
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I've written very proud of both got some great insights there
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that make a great, you know, Father's Day gift, birthday for
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somebody graduation gift, who knows?
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But if you want to support the team and grab a a copy of either
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book, the everything guide to sports betting or the NFL sharp
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betting playbook on Amazon, you can then bring them to the
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sports book and I'll sign them for you and I'll buy you a beer
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or ginger ale and we'll sweat some games together next.
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Have you downloaded rhythm and juice real yet?
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My two favorite sports betting apps.
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They help me win. I'm confident they're going to
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help you win because they're all about the data.
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And we're we're living in a world where AI is taking over.
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Pretty soon we'll reach the singularity when AI becomes
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smarter than humans. But you know what before they
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kill us with with Terminator taking over, maybe they can help
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us catch some some sports betting tickets.
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I'm half joking, but I am worried that aliens, aliens that
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that's all another subject. I am half half worried that AI
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will will take our over and you always find like on a whole
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another tangent, a lot of these sci-fi movies, they kind of end
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up coming true. I don't know if that's me me,
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you know, stretching too much or not, but anyway, whole point
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being there are two great AI backed.
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Models and predictions or two great AI backed what I want to
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say sports betting apps that I would highly recommend that you
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download first one is rhythm. RITHMM rhythm does a great job
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of powering this pod today's Tuesday so 2 days from now on
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Thursday that'll be fun. I didn't realize dawning on me
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now that the rhythm rundown we do every Thursday 6:00 to 7:00
20:24
PM that'll be taking place right before the draft.
20:27
So look forward to seeing you guys there stream live on
20:29
Twitter, but then also Juice. Real.
20:32
Just so many great features. You can sync up your sports
20:34
books, get a running report card of your action at the CLV
20:39
indicators once you bet a game and track how that line is
20:42
breaking either hopefully for you or not against you leading
20:45
up to first pitch or kick off or whatever.
20:47
You also get the robo Jackson best bet picks the sharp mush
20:50
indicators. The arbitrage plays the shop for
20:52
the best line futures as well as if you feel so inclined want to
20:56
be a hero, you can support the pod, the pods free.
20:58
You want to let me know you appreciate the insights, Go sign
21:01
up for a week of best bets that you can get exclusively on Juice
21:05
Rail. It costs $4.99 a week, 5 bucks,
21:09
$5.00 bill pass in the hat 5 bucks to get those best bets.
21:14
As soon as I bet them, they go right to the all systems go
21:17
profile on Juice Rail. You can tail fade, do what you
21:20
like, but I consider it a tip jar.
21:22
If you enjoy the pod, you can show your appreciation by
21:25
signing up for those best bets, but go download rhythm, go
21:28
download juice real, give them both a five star review in the
21:30
App Store. Next you have a live odds page.
21:33
Well, if you don't have one, you need one.
21:34
It's such an important tool to be a data-driven better because
21:38
we need access to accurate data. That means we need a live odds
21:41
page that's giving us all the games that day as well as the
21:44
upcoming games, all the start times, live scoring, live in
21:47
game wagering odds that update automatically.
21:49
You don't have to do anything, they just changes.
21:51
The game is progressing, but really all the legwork you're
21:54
doing throughout the day to try to find a sharp bet, which
21:56
includes the opening column, figuring out what the line
21:59
opened at, where is it now, identify line movement, click
22:02
the odds, pull up the line history as well as shopping for
22:05
the best number, identifying late steam.
22:07
You can do it all with Odds Logic.
22:10
So if you want to give Odds Logic a shot, highly recommend
22:12
it. It's a fantastic live odds page.
22:14
I use it every day. All you got to do is go to
22:16
oddslogic.com/josh 123 that slash Josh one 2-3 at the end.
22:22
That's going to give you a 7 day free trial and 50% off your
22:25
first month of service. So that about does.
22:28
It for episode 496 of the all systems go sports betting
22:31
podcast powered by rhythm. As always, guys, two final
22:34
thoughts. One, whether I see you at the
22:36
Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin River in Rhode Island, the
22:39
Brooklyn, New Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun down in
22:41
Connecticut at the Encore in Boston, Plainridge Park, Casino
22:45
MGM Springfield, or the Nash and my neck of the woods on the
22:48
border of Massachusetts and Nashville, New Hampshire, around
22:51
the desert where the true grinders get down.
22:52
Or Billy Walters sends his number runners with lowest as
22:55
possible is found at the South Point.
22:57
Or sweat and sharp contrarian plays jumping in the stadium
22:59
swimming pool when he cash a big ticket at Circa.
23:02
You're going to walk up to me. Ray's Cleveland dead to us.
23:06
Complete no shows, but show me a Cubbies ticket.
23:08
Nice to see the Cubs come through on a short money line
23:12
price for us last night. So first bets on me or first?
23:15
First beers on me, next one's on you.
23:17
We'll post about the book and sweat some more baseball here
23:20
for tonight. So that about dozen.
23:21
Guys, as always coming. Off a one and two or A2 and 1A.
23:24
Three and O or an O and three. A winning night, a losing night,
23:27
a hot streak, a cold streak. Whether things are going our way
23:29
and we're stacking units left and right or we can't catch a
23:32
break and we're down in the dumps.
23:34
We just got to stay the course, not get too high or too low.
23:36
We got to stay disciplined with our bankroll management.
23:39
We got to play the system matches when they present
23:41
themselves. So we are looking for games that
23:43
are against the public, with the house, with the pros, flat bet,
23:46
avoid parlays and get that CLV. If we can do that, we're going
23:50
to be successful sports vendors. So if everyone has a great
23:53
Tuesday night, by the way, I got no bet on the game, but let's go
23:56
Bruins. They they blew it in Game 1.
24:00
So I'll be watching the Bruins game as a just a just a Bruins
24:03
fan with my daughter who actually turns one month old
24:07
today. One month ago today she was born
24:10
already one month in the books. Actually after this pod my wife
24:13
and I are bringing her to her one month doctor's appointment.
24:16
And when she was born she was 8.1 oz and she dipped a little
24:21
bit. She was down to 7.5 at, at one
24:25
week and then at two weeks she, she got back to 8.2 and the goal
24:30
is for her to be at 9.4 today. So we, you know, I set the over
24:34
under at 9.4. I'm I'm going over because she's
24:37
eating a ton and you know, my wife can barely keep up with all
24:40
the milk, but I think she's going over.
24:43
So that's what I'm doing. I'll be going to my daughter's
24:44
one. I can't even believe it.
24:46
I, I can't believe I have a daughter.
24:47
I can't believe she's already a month old.
24:48
But that's what I'll be doing right after this pod drops.
24:51
I'll be the way guys. Let's get some winners on baby
24:54
Apple Bombers one month birthday and we'll be right back at it
24:57
tomorrow. That'll be episode 497 of the
25:00
All Systems Go Sports Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
25:04
Good luck everybody, and Let's go Bees.