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Mar 19 | Closing Market Report · Closing Market Report

• 0:00
  Todd Gleason: From the Land Grant University in Urbana Champaign, Illinois. This is the Closing Market Report. It is the March 2026. I'm extension's Todd Gleason. Coming up, we'll talk about the commodity markets with Matt Bennett.
• 0:13
  We'll hear from Jerome Powell's press conference yesterday, the Iran war, and its potential financial impact on the nation's economy. We'll turn that to the ag economy with Gary Schnidke, and then take time to thank our military men and women serving in the Iran war at this point before we turn our attention to the weather forecast with Mike Tanura on this Thursday edition of the Closing Market Report from Illinois Public Media. May corn for the day settled at $4.69 and three quarters up 6 and a half cents. July at $4.85 and a half higher and December futures at $4.94 and a half up four and three quarters. May beans eleven sixty eight and a half six and three quarters higher.
• 0:58
  New crop November at $11.46 and a quarter, up four and three quarters. Bean meal, $10.80 higher. The bean oil, down 12¢. Soft red winter wheat in the July, up four at $6.19 and a half. The hard red at $6.42 and a quarter, up a penny and 3 quarters of a cent.
• 1:15
  Live cattle futures and lean hogs were all lower on this Thursday afternoon. Matt Bennett from AgMarket dot net is now here to take a look at the marketplace. Kind of a good day in the markets. Futures were higher for both corn and soybeans, though I did hear about this drop on Monday, and one of the things that took place was that there was just a big movement out of the market of the of the fund money or outside positions. Can you tell me about what that means to the marketplace and how it handles those sorts of things over time?
• 1:51
  Matt Bennett: Yeah. I mean, a big reason, Todd, when you looked at commitment of traders report there on Friday, you know, they're long around 200,000 beans, and, really, they're long pushing 400,000 on the entire bean complex. And so, when traders saw that, when the fund saw that, I believe, you know, that spooked them a little bit that maybe they were a little out over their skis, first of all. You know, second of all, obviously, president Trump came out and and talked about the meeting might be off. Now we found out later that the meeting was just gonna be postponed, but quite frankly, I I think they all got spooked by a combination of those two things along with a little better forecast for Argentina.
• 2:31
  You know? And then we locked down for the first time, I believe, since o nine. You know? So it's been a long time since we've seen a market like that. And, fortunately, we've been able to claw back as we've gone through the week.
• 2:41
  We haven't gotten everything back on beans, but, you know, corn, today was up there pushing on the highs. We made their, up there closer to $5. So on these corn. So it sure is nice to see the way these markets have reacted.
• 2:54
  Todd Gleason: When will the trade, you think, if if they do, move from the the cautionary make scale up sales into this or make sales into this because we don't know what's going to happen to this is really something that might go higher.
• 3:09
  Matt Bennett: Yeah. I mean, Todd, if you remember when we talked about this at the all day ag outlook, I said I like making sales, you know, but I also like owning some short dated calls. And, you know, not everyone agreed with that. But the reason for that, Todd, is that we felt all along that corn has a story, you know, especially corn has a story whenever it comes to demand. So if you wanna make sales and you're already sitting there in a long position, it puts you in a great spot to be able to still participate.
• 3:39
  Now when do you shift to that mentality? Yeah. I think a lot of growers at this point that have gotten to 30% sold or whatever the percentage is, you know, what we've heard from them more and more now is, hey. I'm gonna pump the brakes on this a little bit because if this energy market continues, there's no doubt that's gonna change the trajectory of everything. So I do think that some of those thought processes are already occurring.
• 4:03
  Those that haven't sold anything yet, I think that it'd, be pretty tough to snub my nose at $4.90 plus Dec corn because there's a lot of folks that didn't think we'd ever see those prices this year.
• 4:13
  Todd Gleason: Corn making the gains back? Wheat going to drag it or cap it, do you suppose?
• 4:17
  Matt Bennett: Yeah. I mean, you look at the wheat market, and no doubt, wheat finally has come to life a little bit. But, you know, on a day like today, you see wheat was very reluctantly trying to follow along. You know? Ultimately, you had that, cold weather event here this week, But most people don't think that you're gonna see a whole lot in the way of winter kill.
• 4:37
  And so you continue to see wheat is just kinda trudging along here. I I don't see wheat being the leader by any stretch. You know, most people don't expect that this wheat crop is going to be a huge one here in The US, but unfortunately The US is its main source of wheat in the world. So I don't know that it's going to have a huge impact.
• 4:54
  Todd Gleason: Okay. Thanks much. We'll talk with you again next week.
• 4:57
  Matt Bennett: Absolutely. Thank you.
• 4:58
  Todd Gleason: That is Matt Bennett. He is with agmarket.net. You know, the war with Iran is causing upheaval in the commodity markets, and the early volatility has seen an increase in the price of corn and soybeans but has included some sharp set backs. More concerning is the risk presented to both US farmers and consumers as the conflict in The Middle East drives energy and fertilizer prices higher. The chairman of the Federal Reserve addressed this during his press conference Wednesday.
• 5:32
  Jerome Powell says the impact is concerning.
• 5:35
  Jerome Powell: There are just lots of ways that that oil and derivatives of oil get into the production and transportation of many, many things. So and those you know, there are big effects on in headline inflation, but things like that leak into core as well. And the the effects may not be as big, but they're quite real, and they're they're material. So we we are aware of that, and we're watching it. But, know, we're right at the beginning of this, and we don't know how big it we just don't know how big this will be and how long it lasts.
• 6:03
  You know, it may or may not be something that really makes a big imprint on The US economy. We're just gonna have to wait and see.
• 6:09
  Todd Gleason: Meanwhile, oil price spikes immediately drive up headline inflation, which includes volatile energy prices. Those costs eventually leak, says the chairman, into core inflation. Yet strips out energy and food prices as the cost of producing other goods rises. For corn and soybean growers preparing for spring planting, that wait and see approach means keeping a very close eye on how headline inflation, rising fuel and fertilizer expenses, will impact their bottom line in the coming weeks. The ag economist at the University of Illinois have written an article about this for the Farm Doc Daily website.
• 6:47
  Their report notes the immediate sting of rising fertilizer costs may be minimal for some or many producers this season as a significant portion of those inputs have already been purchased, diesel fuel and nitrogen. However, in the article, the PharmDoc team cautions the long term outlook poses, as chairman Powell also noted, a broader threat. Should the overseas conflict persist, elevated energy prices are expected to ripple through the global supply chain, ultimately driving up cost across all agricultural inputs, goods, and services. I asked University of Illinois agricultural economist Gary Schnitkey about the article and the long term concerns for row crop farmers.
• 7:30
  Gary Schnitkey: This conflict obviously is having a immediate impact on fuel and fertilizer prices, and, we've see now see anhydrous ammonia over 900 a ton, and some of the anhydrous ammonia and all the the fertilizers were going up before this, but the conflict has increased that increase. So first thing you would would would wanna think about is if you haven't had haven't had all your nitrogen priced, are you are you are you stuck on corn? And if so, you know, if so, it's gonna have to think about making those those decisions here shortly. I'm somewhat of the opinion that this is gonna be a longer term conflict. Even if it ended today, there's going to be disruptions in that area, and so we can think about this being a a longer run conflict. So, you know, the fertilizers will be the first thing.
• 8:41
  And again, it might be the time if you haven't already, back to lower nitrogen rates and the MRTN you know 180 pounds per acre level. After that we're going to be looking at higher fuel prices and again those are increasing. That as the chairman said will leak over into other prices or cost and so we're probably again looking at a longer term impact on inflation. So we're thinking that this doesn't there's much less chance of costs coming down and in fact are going to likely increase more into the future. And commodity prices, we don't see a positive impact for this.
• 9:42
  We see those prices roughly remaining the same. The Middle East isn't a large area of production. So over the long run, we're looking at higher cost with the immediate impact being fertilizer and fuel.
• 9:56
  Todd Gleason: I don't often ask you this question, but how should producers think about marketing their new crop for both corn and soybeans in that case?
• 10:07
  Gary Schnitkey: I have the impression that many farmers did the ECO 95%. So if you're in that position, let's say, you've you've taken ECO 95 and some some of the things. We have a very good safety net in place. I would note that prices are above those levels now. And it might be, I mean, let let's begin pricing that 2026 crop.
• 10:33
  I there there's not a lot of optimism to think it's going to increase. Obviously, we can have a weather event, but start pricing it. And and, you know, there's there there are risks that this could be much lower in in the fall, and, you know, a good good round of yields here like we've had in the past couple years could could contribute to that as well. So start pricing.
• 11:01
  Todd Gleason: And then finally, you you and Nick Polson do have an upcoming webinar. Can you tell me about that? It's on this subject.
• 11:08
  Gary Schnitkey: Yeah. So we're gonna be talking about fertilizer and fuel prices, and showing some of the data that we showed here today. More importantly, we have two guests joining us, Gretchen Cuck from the National Corn Growers Association who looks at the geopolitics of this and can provide some insights on where those things are are are going are as well as Chuck Spencer from Growmark. So it will be a we'll we'll have a good discussion. I don't know if we will resolve anything at that that point in time, but it will be a good discussion.
• 11:43
  Todd Gleason: Hey. Thank you much, and we appreciate it.
• 11:46
  Gary Schnitkey: Yep. You're welcome, Todd.
• 11:47
  Todd Gleason: Gary Schnitke is an agricultural economist at the University of Illinois. If you'd like to join that webinar, it's easy enough to do. You can go to the PharmDoc Daily website and look under webinars and events. This one takes place on Thursday, March at 11:00. It's titled fertilizer and fuel risk as a result of the Iran Conflict.
• 12:10
  Again, it's part of the PharmDoc webinar series. I'd like to stay with the Iran war for just a moment. I watched this morning's press conference with the secretary of war, Pete Hagstaff, and the chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, general Dan Kane. In it, Dan Kane took time to talk about the men and women who serve in the American military.
• 12:32
  General Dan Caine: Today, I wanna continue my theme of talking about members of our incredible joint force. Today, wanna talk about some exceptional airmen who are engaged in the fight daily. United States Air Force, Air Force Reserve, and Air National Guard crews within our bomber force, the b ones, b twos, and b 50 twos, and the airmen on the ground who maintain and load these weapon systems. They are the backbone of America's long range strike capability, and their contributions to epic fury have been decisive. Assigned to STRATCOM under admiral Rich Carell and supported by TRANSCOM, the tanker force that we've talked about under the command of general Randall Reed, every mission is designed to achieve overwhelming outcomes on behalf of The United States and our allies.
• 13:22
  Last weekend, I had the chance to go out and see some of our deployed bomber forces, the b one and b 52 crews, and I had a chance to sit down with some young aviators and maintainers and ask them, how do you feel? Tell me about your typical day. And these are crews comprised of between two and five airmen. Two on the on the b twos, five on the on the b 50 twos, and four in the b ones out there. Some of these Americans are in their early or mid twenties, and and we give them the gift of this incredible responsibility, responsibility, hundreds of thousands of pounds of aircraft, and they take off and go do our work, as required.
• 14:06
  Their mission actually begins the day prior when they're given a target or a bunch of targets, and they begin to study those targets, look at what are the effects required, what are the weapons required to get there, how will we program these weapons, what is the weather, what is the tanker flow. It's an incredibly complex problem that we give each and every one of these crews, and they work it over the period of twenty four hours prior, get some rest, and then step out the door to go fly. The last thing they do is they check all of their equipment, their oxygen mask, survival gear, load pistols, and get ready to go. They crank the jets about an hour prior to takeoff and then launch into the daylight, doing their preflight checks. And as the kids say, lock in and prepare to go to war, sometimes on a long stressful journey.
• 14:54
  During the flight, they're they're surrounded by technology and capabilities, and they'll do multiple aerial refueling, efforts, across tankers on the way to the AOR, area of responsibility, either coming from The States or coming from a forward deployed basing. And I will tell you as a fighter pilot, getting gas is a lot easier in an f 16 than it is in a b one, b two, or a b 52 where you are you are handling this airplane. It is a physical thing unlike a fighter that's a lot easier. And they stay on that boom for sometimes up to thirty minutes taking hundreds of thousands of pounds of gas. It is a physical demanding thing to take gas, and they do it multiple times on the way there, and they do it multiple times on the way home.
• 15:44
  As they enter the operating area, they bring the entirety of America's joint force together, to go do the things that we've tasked them to do to put bombs on time, on target with the proper effects. And I know they're feeling a range of emotions, but the thing the American people should take away from it is they're filled with a focus that is incredibly impressive. And they have fear, of course, but their bigger fear is, dear god, please don't let me screw this up, the warrior's prayer that we all have, in our souls. In the days of epic fury, they were shooting, as we've talked about in this room, a lot of standoff weapons. Now we've switched and rolled, as I mentioned last week, to stand in weapons.
• 16:27
  And behind each and every one of them are incredible maintainers and weapons builders who go out there and make sure these aircraft and their weapon systems are ready to go. These airplanes are so big that they're not in hangars. They're out in the cold, out in the snow, out in the rain. The bombs are being built outside for protection and to make sure that it's safe, and they do it twenty four seven, three sixty five. It's not comfortable work, but when you go spend just a minute with these incredibly young Americans who are so motivated, you cannot come away from that exchange not being hopeful for America's future.
• 17:07
  It is simply awesome. And we hand these Americans, young Americans, incredible, and weighty responsibility, and they deliver every single time quietly with professionalism and humility doing the things that we ask them to do.
• 17:26
  Todd Gleason: That was the chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, general Dan Kane, speaking at a press conference earlier today. I thought you should hear his comments. These are a reminder that no matter how you feel about this war, the men and the women of the United States military forces are doing their jobs and upholding the oaths they've sworn to the constitution to the point that they may give the last full measure. To them, we are indebted and ever thankful. Let's turn our attention now to the global growing regions and the climate in each of them.
• 18:07
  Mike Tenure is here. He's with T Storm Weather, president and CEO there in Naperville online at tstorm.net. Mike, we have a lot of ground to cover. Let's begin in The United States with the hard red winter wheat growing regions. What are conditions like?
• 18:24
  Mike Tannura: Well, it's very dry out in the Central And Southern Plains. Our proprietary data shows that basically half of this crop had no rain over the last thirty days, and that tells us that we need some pretty big rains coming up. Over the next ten days though, there's very little rain on the horizon, if any rain. An upper level high is initially going to block energy from passing. And then we're also going to have low humidities in place once the high breaks down a little bit.
• 18:50
  So in the end, we don't see very much rain at all over the next ten days, and that's how you start to develop a pretty significant story. The other piece of this is that it's going to be unusually warm in this region. High temperatures over the next three days will be in the mid eighties to mid nineties on most of the crop, and that extends all the way from Western Nebraska, South into West Texas. We're also going to see a couple days of heat next week. Tuesday and Wednesday will be pretty warm to hot.
• 19:19
  And that's just very unusual. And one thing we need to point out is that this is just an extension of what's been going on here for a long time. We can go all the way back to September, and that's essentially when this region turned warmer than normal and has been warmer than normal ever since. And in fact, it was the warmest September through February in more than one hundred and thirty years across the three state region of Kansas, Nebraska, and Oklahoma. And that's looking at it in two different ways, not only just by looking at the overall record, but also by taking account for the fact that temperatures now are much warmer than they were one hundred and thirty years ago.
• 19:59
  So you see this trend where kind of like when you look at a corn yield, over time the temperatures are going up. And once you flatten that out, this year still ends up being the warmest winter on record in fall. It just So this is just, again, more of that tide, and that's kind of where our concern lies.
• 20:18
  Todd Gleason: Well, it's been warmer than average in that part of the world. It's been much more volatile in a lot of the Midwest, very cold, very warm, both. What does the forecast look like?
• 20:29
  Mike Tannura: Well, it's gonna get a little bit interesting once we get to around April 1. We can see that a big upper level system is going to form somewhere in the Western US, and that'll more than likely move across the Central US around the first week of April. Now if that system moves slowly, then that could bring some pretty nice rains into the hard red winter wheat areas. We see the chance for a decent rain event is probably around 30% in the plains. As you move further east into the soft red winter wheat areas, which are now looking real good with all the rain we've seen over the last two weeks, there's a pretty decent chance for rains to return at around that time, and that's simply a function of the lower elevations that exist in the Corn Belt and in the Mid South.
• 21:11
  That'll that lower elevation allows humidity values to be higher. And so when you bring a system across, it's easier to make rain than further to the west in the plains. So there is something to watch out there, and that's pretty much what the entire hybrid winter wheat market needs to follow. That system comes to fruition, then the dryness story could disappear rather quickly. But if it misses, then all of a sudden, you're going to be looking for another rain event, you really don't have a lot of time left.
• 21:38
  We need a big rain by April 15, or that crop's not going to be able to fully recover.
• 21:42
  Todd Gleason: As we move into the spring here in The United States, the Southern Hemisphere, of course, moving into fall and the harvest season, what are conditions like on the ground for producers in, say, Argentina?
• 21:53
  Mike Tannura: Well, dryness has been flickering throughout the growing season where we seen sometimes where it looked a little bit too dry and then we saw some rain. And we still kind of have that condition today where some areas need rain, but it's not a total drought. But we do have some pretty good storms on the way over the next five days. And we we think that'll wipe out the dryness story as we move into the end of the month. So late filling soybeans in Argentina should get some pretty decent rains, and that'll close out their season with better conditions than what they've had lately.
• 22:21
  Todd Gleason: And then in Brazil for safrinha or second crop corn?
• 22:24
  Mike Tannura: Kind of a mix there. It's looking pretty stormy in the northern areas, and conditions right now look pretty good. It's a little bit dry in the southern areas, and they need some more rain. That setup is pretty much going to linger for a week or two more, But it's still just a little bit early to be too excited about anything. There's enough rain out there to kind of keep everything in check, and there's also enough time for some of these drier areas to receive some rain.
• 22:48
  So overall, just kind of a waiting game there, Todd.
• 22:51
  Todd Gleason: Hey. Thanks much. I appreciate it. We'll talk with you again next week.
• 22:54
  Mike Tannura: Yeah. That sounds great.
• 22:55
  Todd Gleason: Mike Tenoras with t storm weather at t storm dot net online and helped us to wrap up this Thursday edition of the Closing Market Report that came to you from Illinois Public Media. I'm University of Illinois Extension's Todd Gleason.