Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 414 - 12/12/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 414 - 12/12/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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54321 All systems Go with Josh Applebaum starts now.
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Hello and welcome to Episode. 4/14 of the all.
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Systems Go sports betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
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I am your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on, everyone?
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Happy Friday. Our work week has come to an
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end. We got a huge weekend.
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Ahead here guys so as always on a Friday going to unveil our
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final best bet card for college football Saturday only one sweat
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and I hope you played this when we talked about it earlier in
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the week because. We're getting good CLV.
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On this one and then also I have 5 plays for you in the NFL for
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Sunday so. Theme of the day if you tuned
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into or theme of the week I. Should say or theme of Sunday in
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particular. If you tune into the.
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Rhythm Rundown Last night 6 to 7:00 PM Eastern Time is a lot of
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sharp dogs where the dog is like +6 and Rhythm says they should
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be +4 or the dog is plus 1 1/2. And maybe they should be
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favored. So a lot of these dog system
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matches are lighting up for us. So I did find 5 plays coming up
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on Sunday. You might know a few of them
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already. If you sign up to.
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Get those all systems go Best bet picks for $4.99 a week on
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Juice Reel. I put a bunch in last night
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after I did the show with my buddy Cade, the Rhythm rundown.
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But overall guys, 2 plays for tonight.
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So don't think, I don't think I'm leaving you hanging here
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tonight guys, cuz I do have two plays in college basketball.
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It's a very small slate. There's only eight games
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overall. There's some huge spreads like
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I'm looking at like. Xavier -18 against Missouri.
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State uconn's -13 and half against Texas a lot of big
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numbers but I found a couple shorter numbers that are moving
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toward the dog so a couple dog plays here in college basketball
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so with two plays let's. At least try to get.
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One of them. We could get both.
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That'll be a fantastic Friday night.
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So 2 college plays for tonight, 1 college football game for
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tomorrow, five NFL games for Sunday.
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Now looking back to our last night, guys, how about those
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dirty birds, the Atlanta Falcons?
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Unbelievable. They're looking good pretty much
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throughout the game. Then they got down by. 14 in the
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4th. Quarter I'm like, oh, that's not
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good for us in our plus 5 1/2, but they battled back and
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actually won the game outright 29 to 28.
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So pour one out for my Tampa Bay division winner here.
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It's getting it's getting dicey. I don't know if Carolina is
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going to overtake them. I hope not because I actually
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have a plan on Carolina and the Saints that we'll talk about
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later. But that was really a just Hall
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of Fame, you know, blueprint play for us with Atlanta.
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If you look in the dictionary, the sports betting encyclopedia
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for just system play matches, it was the Atlanta Falcons, a super
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contrarian divisional primetime dog with a line freeze.
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So basically. The line?
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Really. Never moved off 5 1/2.
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Some books did close at the very end at 6:00, but it was mostly 5
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1/2. All week, even though 80.
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Percent of bets were on Tampa Bay, so you're heavily bet
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contrarian spot. We were a divisional dog and we
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also had the primetime dog system match as well and we had
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all those system matches in terms of primetime dogs getting
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4 1/2 or more now upwards of 60% against the spread since 2020 as
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well. As the Baker Mayfield stat that
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I gave you, which was Baker Mayfield really good as a.
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Dog in his career? Not so much as a favorite.
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I believe now he's four and eight against the spread when
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favored by 4 and half for more with Tampa Bay and overall in
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his career he's way below 500. So it's nice to see a prime time
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gross divisional dog flap their wings for us.
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Great hit there with the Atlanta Falcons, unfortunately.
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It was a one. And two night -1.
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Point O 9 units because even though the.
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Falcons came through for US. Freaking ooey Pooey and UT Rio.
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Grande both losers short money line favorites system matches
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galore. Both let us down, and the
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annoying part of both those games is that.
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Both teams were leading at halftime, so Ooey Pooey was up
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at half, UT Rio was up at. Half and they're like.
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OK, here we go and. Both really just, you know,
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don't show up in the second-half and lose it for us.
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So couldn't get either of those college games.
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I'm like. Can you at least get one?
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We have a two and one winning night, but unfortunately didn't
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break our way, but still a nice, nice winner there with the
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Falcons. So overall 1 and 2 -. 1 point O
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9 units last night. Sadly our our three-game or
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three day or four day winning streak came to an end, but that
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just means that we're hungry. To start a new streak.
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So that being said, let's waste no more time.
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Let's talk some college basketball for tonight before we
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get to the card. For this weekend here.
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In pro and college football, number one, I mentioned earlier,
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small slate, only eight games and I'm looking at, OK, where
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are the sharp line moves at which also correspond with some
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good rhythm edges. And it landed on two games.
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So the first one is a tiny little added extra game.
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Game 306-611-3066. One 28-O clock, Eastern Time.
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East Tennessee State. At Austin P Now let's set the
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stage. Talk line movement, split system
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matches. I'll give you my play here now.
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East Tennessee State is 8 and two.
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They've won two. Straight just beat up on.
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Division Two. Tuscaloohum.
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I don't know who that is and they didn't even have a betting
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line for that game, but that was a 78 to 62.
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Win over the D2 school you know Austin P4 and. 5 on the year
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started off pretty good, but they've lost four of their last
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five. Just lost to UT Rio Grande
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Valley. So UT Rio could beat.
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Austin P but couldn't get a win for us last night.
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You can tell them a little bitter about those college games
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last night, but anyway. They lost to UT Rio 63 to 50.
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Didn't cover as a 3 1/2 point Rd. dog, so we seen across the
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market here. Well, this game opened East
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Tennessee State listed around a. 3 1/2 point Rd. favorite and the
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public even though it's a lower back game there's.
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So few games to choose. From it's actually.
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A decently bet game. Again, the big slate, these
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added extra games can get completely overlooked, But when
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there's only eight games and there's like a 6:00 game, let's
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see, 37 o'clock games, 28 o'clock games, and 8:30 and a
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nine, they're kind of spread out here.
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So public's itching for the action.
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So they're thinking, oh. Eight and two team laying a
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short. Number against a four and five
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team that's lost four or five. Let's go East Tennessee State,
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that's what. The public is saying so.
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Nearly 60% of spread bets. Are linked with East Tennessee
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State. However.
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We open -3 and F East Tennessee State.
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We're still -3 and. F East Tennessee State.
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Now, very early when this line opened, it did get as high as 4
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1/2, but it didn't last long, went right back down to 3 1/2.
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So basically we're looking at a line freeze play here, similar
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to the Falcons last night. Not nearly as heavily bet.
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But basically. The public is loading up on the
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favorite, but the line really hasn't moved at all.
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So that tells me there's a reluctance on the part of the
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sports books to raise this number any higher and give out a
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better number to Austin P. So that's your line freeze.
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Heavy betting one side, but the line really won't moved at all.
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That's an indicator of smart money now.
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If we look at DK. Only about 40% of spread bets,
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but. 60. 4% of spread dollars are on Austin.
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P. So a little little low bets,
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higher dollar split there in their favor.
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You look over at circa 80% spread bets, 90% spread dollars
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on Austin P. So that tells me out in Vegas
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you got a lot of big money going the other way and taking the dog
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here, which is what I'm doing now.
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Ken Palm. As East Tennessee State.
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Winning by three points, 72 to 69.
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So we can get the 3 1/2 here and that would give us a 1/2 point
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or a hook edge on Austin P. So if Ken Palm nails it, lose by
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three. We cover with the three and half
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with Austin P. Austin P is also a.
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Classic Buy low, Sell high Play a below 500 team on a losing
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skid against a sell high above 500 team on a winning.
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Streak. Then we look at some home Rd.
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East Tennessee State, they're 8. And two overall, but they're 7
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and O at home. But they ain't home tonight.
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They're on the road and on the road.
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They're only one and two. So great at home, losing on the
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road, but on the road tonight. Austin P.
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Very similar. They're two and five on the
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road. Not very good, but they're two
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and O at home. So I try to mention this as much
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as I can. I know it didn't come through
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last night for us, but home Rd. Typically it's a bigger edge in
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college than it is in pros. Because these college kids
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aren't as used to. The travel, the, the, you know,
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the mean crowd, all that kind of stuff.
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Pros It's like, no big deal. They're used to it.
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I did notice this total dip. A bit.
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It was like. 143 1/2 to 142 1/2 and there was a good split on
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the under, but adding it all up here guys.
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Publix going East Tennessee state but.
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The line really hasn't moved at all.
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We got low bets, higher dollars, buy low, sell high.
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Ken Palms got a three-point game, so that's an an edge on
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the 3 1/2 and oh by the way, popped open Rhythm.
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Rhythm has two recommended plays on Austin.
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P1 says the game should be plus 2.4.
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Another one says the game should be plus 2.5.
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S 1/2 point edge with Ken Palm and a full point edge with our
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friends at Rhythm. So Long story short guys by the
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way, can anyone name me? The Austin P nickname.
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Or a mascot. The governor's.
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I'm going governor's tonight. Plus 3 1/2.
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You can get that pretty much anywhere.
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Again, Rhythm's got a 2 1/2 point game and Ken Palms got a
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three three-point game, so I'm taking the dog here.
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Austin P + 3 1/2 Next one for you I think, if you like Austin
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P. I believe you.
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Also like Eastern Washington, so 9:00 tonight your late game,
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your your only game after 8:30 and we have Cal Baptist visiting
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Eastern Washington. Cal Baptist comes in seven and
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three, but they started 7 and O and they've lost three straight.
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They just fell to Utah, 91 to 85.
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Did cover though as a 5 1/2 point Rd. dog.
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Meanwhile Eastern Washington two and seven did just snap.
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However, a three-game losing skid with a. 90 to 66 win over
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Kansas City. They covered as a 9 1/2 point
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home favorite. So what have you seen across the
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market? Here, well, this game opened.
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Cal Baptist listed as a 4 1/2 point Rd. favorite and the
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public. This is not an added extra game
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and also it's your late game. So it's it is actually one of
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the most heavily bet games of the night.
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Public says Gimme Cal Baptist all day seven and three team
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only laying 4 1/2 against a two and seven team.
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So right now we are getting nearly 70% of spread bets laying
10:07
it with Cal Baptist. The Lancers, however, even
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though they're getting, you know, nearly 70% of tickets,
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they're not up to -5 1/2 - 6. The line is down to 3 1/2.
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So why would the odds makers drop Cal Baptist if they're so
10:22
popular, getting so much support from -4 1/2 down to -3 1/2?
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Why are they basically? Making it easier for the public.
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To cover when they're already playing Cal Baptist to begin
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with, well, it tells me that's because smart money came in on
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Eastern Washington and the points triggering that sharp
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reverse line movement so public Baptist.
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Line going to Ewash here. Now Eastern Washington, believe
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it or not, is one of your top bet against the public plays of
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the night, only getting like basically less than 1/3 of
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tickets and you wouldn't expect it, but it's such a small slate,
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a pretty heavily bet late night game.
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Now Eastern Washington. Some advantages here.
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Better effective field goal. Percentage 54.
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Percent versus 48%, better three-point shooting 35% versus
11:03
31% and slightly better free throw shooting 71% versus 70%.
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Once again, home Rd. Cal Baptist, they're four and O
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at home, but they're only two and three on the road.
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They're on the road tonight. Eastern Washington, O and seven
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on the road, but they're two and O at home.
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So hopefully some home cooking. And then here's a little angle
11:23
as I was looking at kind of the recent performance for both
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teams. I just gave you those home Rd.
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stats, but Eastern Washington, they're playing their second
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straight home game. So no travel, sleeping in your
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own bed advantage there hopefully versus Cal Baptist.
11:38
Who is on the? Final leg of A5 game road trip.
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So this is their fifth straight Rd. game and they've gone 1/3 in
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those first four games. So is it one of those games
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where, you know, it's been a long trip, you're tired, you're
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ready to go home and maybe a let down spot, maybe get out of here
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and just, you know, warm up the bus.
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We want to go back home. Maybe that's a little bit of an
11:59
edge here in favor of Eastern Washington.
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Now most books are at plus 3 1/2, but I just checked it right
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now. Hopefully you can get this in
12:07
early or you follow the plays on Juice Reel.
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But Eastern Washington is plus 4 1/2 - 120 at FanDuel.
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So I jumped on that. Plus 4 1/2 - 120 at FanDuel.
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Again, every other book is like 3 1/2 rhythm.
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By the way, has ewash. Plus 2.6 and plus 2.7.
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So a decent. Little nearly two point edge and
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then, oh by the way, popped open juice Reel and noticed a 46%
12:33
sharp mush edge on Eastern Washington.
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The Eagles. So that is a big.
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Big discrepancy in favor of Eastern Washington.
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So again, shop around. Got to have multiple outs if
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you're looking for New Year's resolutions as the end of the
12:45
the year is upon us here guys. Maybe it should be adding
12:49
another book. So if you don't have a FanDuel
12:51
boom, you can get a four and a half there if you want to open
12:53
an account. So Eastern Washington plus 4 1/2
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-. 120 and Austin P + 3 1/2. You should be able to get that
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at -110. Now our card for the.
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Weekend. It's a big weekend.
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Guys, and I'll be honest with you, my wife's best friend, she
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was her maid of honor at her wedding and she was her college
13:14
roommate. They went to St.
13:15
John's together. She is hosting a holiday party
13:17
tomorrow in Stamford, CT. So we're driving down, we're
13:21
going to the holiday party and now we might get into.
13:24
New York City On On. Sunday.
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So basically I'm like. Hey do you have ATV?
13:28
Like this girl Karen, I love her, she's awesome, but not
13:32
really into sports. Probably have great food by the
13:35
way, but I'm like, any chance we can get?
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Army Navy on the TV. And she's like, I don't.
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Even know if she has ATV. So I might not even be able to
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sweat this. What?
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Are you going to do? But I did play the Army Navy
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game. Now I'm really proud of us for
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identifying this very early in the week.
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I believe it was on Monday that we talked about this game
13:55
because I wanted to get out ahead of it.
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But guys, death, taxes. And give me the Army Navy under.
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Now, we've talked about this quite a bit.
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If you've done, you know, Army, Navy games with me in the past,
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you know, I love playing the Under.
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There's a reason for it. Because both these teams rarely
14:11
throw. The ball and they run it a lot.
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Running the ball chews up the clock.
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Also, they both run it a lot, so they both practice against the
14:18
run. So hopefully you're know what to
14:20
do to stop it. But that's the whole point.
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There's a betting system that I've loved for a long time was
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one of the first systems that made me understand what a
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betting system is, which is not a trend.
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A trend is. Usually just tied to.
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One team a betting system is it doesn't matter what.
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Teams you plug in. If it meets a specific criteria
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with a sound theory behind it like a windy under, doesn't
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matter the teams. But as long as it's windy, it
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benefits the under. Well, this is your Military
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Academy under so Army, Navy or you could throw Air Force in
14:48
there anytime they face off two of those teams out of three
14:52
against each other. You've seen the undercast nearly
14:54
like 70% of the time over the last 25 years.
14:57
In particular, this game here Army Navy now it went under 16
15:02
and O 16 straight years from 2006 to 2021 and 2023.
15:08
Two years ago the total was 28 1/2, the lowest total I believe
15:13
in recent memory and it actually did cash.
15:15
It was a. 17 to 11 game it. Landed on 28 but last year it
15:20
went over and it was a similar total. 38 1/2 and it landed.
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On 44 Navy. 131 to 13, but if you remember.
15:28
You know, each year. When it comes to this Army Navy
15:30
game, you're going to get a lot of Twitter talk about this where
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a lot of the Sharps are going to play the under, whereas the
15:36
public doesn't understand why the total is so low.
15:38
They want to bet the over anyway and they're thinking, hey, if
15:42
this thing is gone like 16 and O over that stretch, people look
15:46
at it one of two ways. They look at it one way, saying
15:48
hey, you got to play the under because it's.
15:50
Proving to be really good. Other people say, hey, it's due
15:53
for aggression. So I guess you could make the
15:54
case for both. But remember the odds makers,
15:57
they're adjusting these numbers each year based on the matchup,
15:59
the power ratings. So with that being said, last
16:04
year it did go over. So I'm thinking everyone who
16:07
played the over last year, the public is saying hey, it is too
16:10
low. The the under trend is done
16:12
with. Play the over.
16:14
So maybe it's an opportunity to kind of go the other way so high
16:17
and go back to our under play. And that's exactly what I've.
16:20
Done, and I hope you guys did. Too, Because if you remember
16:23
this game open 38 1/2 and on Monday's pod I believe it got up
16:27
to 39 1/2 and I said, oh, it's 39 1/2.
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But a lot of books are juiced under.
16:33
I don't maybe see this going higher than that.
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We should jump on it now. So we did.
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Talked about it Monday, put in the juicer lab.
16:40
So I'm on under 39 1/2 now. If you're looking at the number
16:44
now, it's 38 1/2. So if you want to play it,
16:46
unfortunately the best number is now gone.
16:48
But there are some 30 eights out there.
16:50
So maybe the hook you get the 38 1/2, it closes 38.
16:53
Hopefully you can still get some CLV.
16:55
But I have some. Updated splits for you guys if
16:58
you look at. Army.
16:59
Navy. At DraftKings, 43% bets, but 72%
17:04
of dollars are on the under and at circa 59% of bets, but 81% of
17:10
dollars are on the under. So this bet split has gotten
17:12
really, really sharp, you know, throughout the week.
17:16
So again, we have a sharp mush edge.
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There's an 8% sharp mush edge from our friends at Juice Rail.
17:21
This is a Military Academy under play.
17:24
And again, hopefully you got that better number earlier in
17:26
the week. So best number right now is
17:27
under 38 1/2, but I'll be sweating the under 39 1/2 and
17:31
hopefully you guys we're able to jump on that a little bit
17:34
earlier as well. Now, we haven't really talked
17:37
much about the NFL because I was kind of letting some dust settle
17:41
and I always like to get perspective from Rhythm and my
17:44
buddy Kate Harper. So I landed on five.
17:46
Games this weekend that really. Jumped out to me, so let's just
17:49
run through them. First one near and dear to my
17:52
heart. Bills Patriots 1:00 on Sunday.
17:57
Obviously this is a big game for the Patriots, for both teams,
18:01
but this is what? Used to.
18:02
Be called by Bill Bell Belichick the hat and T-shirt game.
18:06
If the Pats win this game, they get a hat.
18:08
And T-shirt, they win the AFC East.
18:10
Now this line is kind of going back and forth if you look at
18:14
where it opened, some shops opened at a pick em, some shops
18:17
open patriots laying a point or point and 1/2 it has moved now
18:22
to. Bills. -1 -, 1 1/2 but some of
18:25
those 1 1/2's are now down to 1. So it's kind of been all over
18:29
the place now. The public there, they don't
18:31
know what to. Do they're 5050?
18:33
On the one hand, how do you not take bills such a short number?
18:36
The other hand, how do you not take patriots at home as a dog?
18:39
They're they're 11 and two, they've been great.
18:41
So there's no contrarian value here.
18:43
However, I did notice that even though it's. 5050 at DK.
18:47
Circa has 31% bets but 54% dollars on the Patriots.
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Patriots also. Would be a divisional.
18:54
Dog. So always love that divisional
18:56
dog angle just like we had with the Falcons yesterday.
19:00
Mike Vrabel as a dog, three in one ATS this year, 58% ATS in
19:05
his career. Patriots also have a rest versus
19:08
tired advantage as they are coming off a bye week.
19:11
And Mike Vrabel, it's his first year off a bye with the
19:14
Patriots, but back when he was with this is a great step for my
19:17
buddy Kate Harper he brought to the show last night.
19:19
But Mike Vrabel is 6 and one straight up and against the
19:23
spread off a bye and those obviously date back to his years
19:26
with Tennessee. Lastly, what really sent me over
19:29
the edge with the Patriots rhythm, I got 3 models, Pats
19:34
-0.8, Pats -1.7, Pats -1.1. So there's no contrarian value,
19:43
but I'm not still not on the public.
19:44
Side it's 5050 DK. But sharp split at circa rest
19:48
first tired off a bye rabble off a bye divisional dog.
19:52
And rhythm is actually saying wrong team is favored.
19:56
Patriots should be favored in this one.
19:57
So I did grab plus 1 1/2 with New England.
20:02
Let's go Pats, next one for you, Chargers in Kansas City.
20:06
This one's crazy because I have to respect this line has ticked
20:10
up toward Kansas City a little bit.
20:12
So Kansas City, as we all know, in dire straits right now, might
20:16
miss the playoffs. Really have to win out and maybe
20:18
even get some help just to get back into it.
20:21
But this game opened -4 1/2 KC. And I really, you know, don't.
20:27
Object to people who. Want to go with the Chargers
20:29
here and that's what I'm going to do.
20:31
I'm a little surprised though. KC went from minus. 4 1/2 up to
20:33
-5 1/2 and that is notable to me.
20:36
Because if you look at. The splits right now, right now
20:40
you are getting the let me find it for you.
20:44
The Chargers are getting around 60% of tickets, but the line.
20:48
Did move toward KC so if you like.
20:50
KC I'm not going to. Argue they do look decently.
20:52
Sharp, but over at Circa 74% of bets. 96% of spread dollars are
20:58
on the Chargers so the splits at DK.
21:01
Tell you KC the splits. At circa tell you LA Chargers
21:06
now the angle for me is not really a sharp play, but I would
21:09
call a value play with the Chargers.
21:11
So I'll go plus 5 1/2 here with the Chargers.
21:15
If you look at #1 divisional dog built in familiarity levels the
21:19
playing field again just mentioned Pat's divisional dog
21:22
and the Falcons divisional dog came through last night.
21:25
Justin Herbert as a dog. Two and O 8.
21:27
TS this year, 57% ATS in his career when Herbert is a dog of
21:33
3 1/2 or more, he's 11 and two against the spread in his
21:37
career, so that's another great angle here.
21:40
And our friends at Rhythm. I have three models.
21:43
Chargers plus 4.5. Chargers plus 4.1.
21:47
Chargers plus 2.1. So even if you take the.
21:51
You know, 4 1/2 rounded up to five, that's still an edge over
21:54
5 1/2. And I'll be honest with you
21:56
guys, I've been betting against Kansas City I feel like every
22:00
single week, and it's been coming through.
22:02
So if you just. Kind of look at Kansas City
22:04
schedule and the way they've really struggled here just
22:07
overall during the season. But of course in in recent weeks
22:10
I remember. Took the What was it?
22:13
The Broncos at home against. Kansas City Like Plus. 3 1/2
22:17
took the Colts against Kansas. City they covered.
22:20
Remember, Cowboys on Thanksgiving covered Texans.
22:22
We took them last week. They covered.
22:24
So at what? Point Do we just say?
22:26
Man, if you're giving me points against Casey, I'm going to take
22:29
them well with those rhythm edges again, saying it should.
22:32
Be closer to a. 4 even a 2 point game divisional dog Herbert as a
22:36
dog. I played the chargers here Now I
22:39
got a bad 4 1/2. I was really shocked to see it
22:41
get up to 5 1/2 but if you want to play it now you can you can
22:44
get that 5 1/2. So let's go Chargers next one
22:47
for you, Denver and Green Bay, great match up here.
22:51
Maybe a super? Bowl match up, who knows?
22:54
Open my paths to find a way to get in there for the AFC.
22:57
This one is a value play that's starting to come back.
23:00
So I took Denver plus 2 1/2. Now, must admit, the line did
23:04
creep up toward Green Bay. Green Bay open like -1 on the
23:08
road. They're now up to -2 1/2.
23:11
But a lot of these two and a halfs are juiced up.
23:13
Some looks are getting back down to 2.
23:15
So it kind of ticked up toward Green Bay, but now it's kind of,
23:19
you know, water seeping its level, whatever you want to call
23:21
it. Coming back toward Denver and if
23:23
you'll get the splits at circa 59% bets, 81% dollars on Denver.
23:30
So good low bets, higher dollar split Denver in the points,
23:33
though I was hoping for a 3A key number of three you could tease.
23:36
Them up. It's a great teaser play.
23:37
Two and half to 8 1/2, but a lot of these two and halfs are
23:40
getting down to 2 and I don't think the three is going to show
23:42
itself. So I said I might as well
23:43
guarantee I get a 2 1/2 here and Peyton can go for two and think
23:47
weird things can happen. Miss kick McManus, I don't know.
23:51
So at least I want to get the 2 1/2 there with a hook.
23:53
But you have a dog. Low total, very low total of 42
23:56
1/2. Good bet.
23:57
Split at circa. Home field advantage.
24:01
Denver 6 and O at home this year.
24:03
It's really hard to go into Mile High and win a game.
24:06
Rhythm, by the way, has Denver plus one, Denver plus 1.6 and
24:11
Denver plus 0.0. So some of these models are pick
24:16
em game. So if you're giving me.
24:18
A. Incredible home field advantage.
24:20
Team dog low total good bet split rhythm says it should be
24:24
maybe a pick em game. I took the 2 1/2 there with the
24:27
Denver Broncos. So let's go Broncos plus 2 1/2.
24:32
Next one for you. New Orleans Saints, a gross one.
24:36
Carolina Panthers New Orleans 425 coming up on Sunday.
24:40
Now this line kind of has been hovering basically 2 1/2 three 2
24:46
1/2 three 2 1/2 three. Looks like there's kind of a
24:48
battle between some pros who like Carolina -2 1/2 and a lot
24:52
of pros who really like New Orleans plus 3.
24:56
Will count me in the group with the latter.
24:58
Which. Would be New Orleans. +3 I took
25:00
Saints plus three guys. Now a lot of books are 2 1/2,
25:03
but I found Saints plus 3 -, 115 at Fanatics.
25:07
The first thing that note that jumped out to me is just how
25:10
contrarian New Orleans is. If you look at the Saints right
25:13
now, public wants nothing to do with them.
25:15
They're only getting 20% of spread bets.
25:17
So 80% of spread bets are on Carolina.
25:20
Everyone's playing Carolina. But again, 2 1/2, three, the
25:24
line really has not moved at all, and anytime it gets to
25:28
three, it seems to get juiced up and come back down to 2 1/2.
25:31
That told me we're looking at a epic line freeze on New Orleans
25:34
+3. Now New Orleans.
25:37
Would also be a divisional. Dog Dog low total This one with
25:41
lowest total I think it. Might be the lowest total of the
25:44
week only. 40 1/2 in a Dome nonetheless.
25:49
By the way, Philly and. Vegas is the lowest total, 38
25:52
1/2 and Kenny Pickett is playing in that one, but a divisional
25:56
dog as well as a line freeze dog.
25:58
Low total and everyone and their mother is on Carolina.
26:02
That looks like a sharp +3 to me.
26:04
So I did did take the New Orleans Saints +3 and of course,
26:10
shop around because I think, yeah, that plus 3 -, 115 was at
26:13
Fanatics and again, the important thing.
26:16
There like it's a teaser play 2 1/2.
26:18
Up to 8 1/2 if you want to go in that direction.
26:21
But you got to get the plus three.
26:22
It's the most common key number. So if New Orleans ends up losing
26:26
by three, again, you want to push that bet.
26:29
And oh, by the way, I have three models on the Saints.
26:31
One says the Saints should be plus 1.71, says the Saints
26:35
should be plus 1.1, and I have a Green Star recommendation.
26:39
That says Saints should actually be.
26:40
Favored -0.6, so 3 rhythm models all lighting up on New Orleans,
26:46
but again, got to get to 3 so I'm on Saints plus 3 -. 115 last
26:50
bit of the weekend, Sunday Night Football, Vikings, Dallas
26:54
Cowboys. Give me the Vikings here guys.
26:58
I'll just tell you out front. When Dallas is popular, laying
27:02
points, I want nothing to do with them.
27:04
When Dallas is unpopular getting points, I like to play the
27:08
Cowboys. Like again, Remember the Cowboys
27:11
against Philly and then the Cowboys against?
27:13
The Chiefs a couple weeks ago. But you look at that game
27:18
against the Lions, they were kind of trendy and they were,
27:21
you know, a trendy bit of a trendy dog.
27:24
Well, this spot, they are a very popular favorite and it's a
27:27
prime time Sunday Night Football game.
27:29
So the Cowboys actually open this game.
27:30
As high as a 7 1/2 point favorite. 7 1/2's got down to 6
27:35
1/2 and now 6 some looks even now down to 5 1/2.
27:39
Why is that important? Because right now 76% of spread
27:43
bets are going with the boys. So the boys are a very popular
27:46
play in the most heavily. Bet Game of the Week.
27:49
Sunday at football, or until we get to Monday night, which, by
27:52
the way, I like Miami plus 3 1/2 there.
27:55
I'll talk about that on Monday. But just a classic.
27:58
Not a divisional dog, but a primetime dog and a sharp
28:01
reverse line move. Three out of four bets on
28:03
Dallas, yet Dallas has fallen 7 1/2 down to 6 1/2 down to six.
28:08
Some five and a halfs there. Now, I did find Vikings plus 6
28:12
1/2. So again, very important there
28:14
that you get that hook that plus 6 1/2 was minus. 1:15 at
28:19
FanDuel. You also have a good bet split
28:22
at circa so you're very contrarian at at DraftKings.
28:27
Only 24% at circa 35% but 87% dollars on the Vikings.
28:33
I also have a green star smart signal recommended play from
28:36
rhythm where it says Vikings should be plus 4.5.
28:40
My second model is Vikings plus 0.3.
28:44
Like basically a pick em game. Third model Vikings plus 4.6.
28:48
But even take those 4 1/2's you still get a full 2 point edge if
28:53
you got that FanDuel account plus 6 and F -, 1. 15-O By the
28:57
way, 31. Percent sharp mush edge from our
28:59
friends at Juice Reel on the Vikings and I'm looking at which
29:06
one was it JJ? McCarthy, he played.
29:09
Pretty well. I didn't watch that game.
29:10
I remember they, you know, I saw the score.
29:12
They blew out. Was it the commanders?
29:13
But he was. 16 to 23. 163 yards, 3 touchdowns, and Brian Flores
29:18
has that great blitz package that hopefully can get to
29:21
Prescott. And Cowboys have had offensive
29:23
line issues. So Long story short, guys,
29:25
there's some five and a halfs out there.
29:27
There's a lot of sixes out there.
29:28
We can still get Vikings plus 6 1/2 -, 115 at FanDuel.
29:32
So that's what I'm doing. So Vikings, Saints, Denver,
29:35
Chargers, Pats, we get 3 out of out of five go three and two are
29:40
better. You got a winning Sunday.
29:41
That is the goal. So that about does it for
29:44
episode 414 of the All Systems Go Sports Betting podcast
29:48
powered by Rhythm. This is the part of the pod
29:50
where we wrap things up and always start first by saying
29:53
thank you. Thank you for listening, thank
29:55
you for tuning in, thank you for grinding in the arena with me.
29:57
It means a ton to me guys, that we've created this community to
30:01
try to find sharp bets with our head and not our heart.
30:04
Take your contrarian approach. Betting numbers, not teams.
30:07
You guys know the drill by now. But if you'd like to.
30:10
Repay the favor. Let me know you appreciate the
30:12
pod. Please could you give it a five
30:13
star review on Spotify or iTunes rate and review.
30:18
Click the follow button retweet the pod when I tweet it out.
30:21
I recommend the pod to a friend that.
30:22
Would all be. Super cool and awesome of you
30:25
Next if you enjoy the style of sports betting breakdown,
30:28
data-driven, sharp contrarian betting focusing on numbers not
30:32
what our heart is telling us, but what the betting market, the
30:35
context clues picking up on line movement, split system matches
30:38
Well, if this style of betting has.
30:39
Appealed to you. You want to learn more about
30:42
data-driven betting, but more importantly guys, it's the 12th
30:45
of December, you got two weeks until Christmas and actually
30:49
Hanukkah. I'm half Jewish, very proud of
30:51
that. You would probably expect by my
30:53
last name, but I'm actually quote UN quote, a fake Jew
30:56
because you're technically your mom has to be Jewish.
30:58
It's my dad who's Jewish. But you got Hanukkah coming up
31:01
on Sunday. So if you are looking.
31:03
For a Hanukkah gift, a Christmas gift, a stocking stuffer.
31:06
You know what you should do? Don't get a pair of underwear
31:10
for your, your, your niece, your, or your nephew.
31:13
Don't get a collared shirt. Don't get them socks.
31:16
You know you should get get them something that they can turn
31:18
into hopefully buying 20 pairs of socks.
31:22
That is the NFL sharp betting playbook.
31:24
Go buy my book for that stocking stuff for that white elephant,
31:27
that Hanukkah gift. You can get it on Amazon.com.
31:30
You can also get my first book, The Everything Guide to Sports
31:33
Betting. Heck, you could get.
31:34
Both and be a really cool gift giver this month for the
31:38
holidays. But grab one or both of them
31:39
guys and then you can bring them with a sports book.
31:42
I'll sign them for you. I'll buy you a beer or ginger
31:44
ale. We'll sweat some games together
31:45
this weekend. Next, have you downloaded Rhythm
31:49
and Juice Real yet? My two favorite sports betting
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apps Rhythm incredible for their AI backed models and predictions
31:54
for game bets and player props. Juice reel so many great
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features. First off, if you want to tip
31:59
your podcast host, sign up to get the all systems go best bet
32:02
picks right from juice reel. As soon as I bet them my sports
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books are synced up. I just actually added an
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accountant Bally bet the other day.
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They go right to the app so you can tail.
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Fade, do what you like. But also you're going to get the
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Robo Jackson best bet picks, the sharp mush indicators.
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The arbitrage plays the shop for the best line features, all
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available when you download. Juice Reel.
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So download Juice Reel, download Rhythm, give them a five star
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review in the App Store. Next, you have a live odds page.
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If you don't have one, you need one that makes your sports
32:31
betting breakdown so much easier.
32:34
It's never it's never easy to win a bet.
32:35
But again, I don't know how people bet without a live odds
32:38
page. It's just it's going to become
32:39
such an important resource for you, being able to track the
32:42
market in real time. What are the games that are
32:45
available for me to bet on today?
32:46
Start times, live scoring, live in game wagering odds, being
32:50
able to shop for the best price, comparing the opening number to
32:53
the current odds, see which way the line is moved, pull up the
32:55
line history, identify the steam, but again, getting the
32:58
best price. Like that Vikings game.
33:00
On my Odds Logic live odds page, pretty much every book is 6 or 5
33:04
1/2, but I found FanDuel plus 6 1/2.
33:07
So again they lose by 6. We can cover there.
33:10
That's the importance of the live odds page.
33:12
So if you'd like to give. Odds logic a shot.
33:14
Just go to oddslogic.com/josh 123.
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That'll give you a 7 day free trial 50% off your first month
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next, have you? Joined up with Novig yet?
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Novig is a sports betting exchange and not a sports book,
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so as a result you're going to get way better juice prices.
33:32
The house is not there to Jack up a - 115 -, 120 on you.
33:35
You're going to get plus one O 2 -, 1 O3 plus one O 6 - 1 O 7
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reduced juice basically RJ, which in the betting world is
33:44
always a good thing. South point does reduced juice.
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Sometimes betting GM does it too, which is minus one O 5.
33:50
But either way, guys, if you want to join up with the betting
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exchange, you're going to get better juice prices and you
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won't get booted when you lose or when you are sorry.
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You won't get booted when you win or have be limited.
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So if you want to download novig when you fund your account, just
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put in Josh 123 in the promo field.
34:06
You'll get an extra 25 bucks. Lastly, good start, we have
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almost 20 signups already for the NFL playoffs Splash Sports
34:15
Survivor contest. So again, it doesn't start until
34:18
the playoffs start, but I'd love for you guys to join.
34:20
It's 25 bucks to join. You can have up to 7 entries and
34:23
the cool thing here is you got to save your Super Bowl winner
34:25
for the very end. So if you think the Rams are
34:29
going to win the Super Bowl, you don't want to use them first
34:31
weekend or I guess they'll get a buy, you know, divisional round.
34:35
You want to save them. So there's a.
34:36
Cool strategic aspect to it. But if you want to join up with
34:41
Splash Sports, you can click the link on my Twitter page at Josh
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under score insights. And I am now putting the link in
34:47
the bio description of the pod. So come on down, come join.
34:49
I'd love for you guys to join in.
34:51
I want, I want one of the winners to be a podcast
34:53
listener, but that about does it guys, wrapping up the weekend or
34:58
wrapping. Up the week, but as we steam
34:59
into the weekend. Couple final thoughts one.
35:01
Whether I see you at the Borgata in Atlantic?
35:04
City Twin River in Rhode Island, the Brooklyn, New Hampshire,
35:06
Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun down in Connecticut, the Encore in
35:09
Boston, Plain Ridge Park, Casino, MGM, Springfield, and my
35:13
neck of the woods by also the border of Nashua, NH in
35:18
Massachusetts, the Nash, which I like to attend every now and
35:20
again. We're out in the desert where
35:22
the true grinders get down, where Billy Walter sends his
35:24
number runners or the lowest true as possible sound at the
35:26
South Point or sweat and sharp contrarian plays jumping in the
35:30
stadium swimming pool. When you catch a big ticket at
35:32
Circa, you're going to walk up to me and we're just going to do
35:35
a Dirty Birds dance because the Falcons came up massive for the
35:39
team last night. So show me a Falcons ticket.
35:41
First one's on me, next one's on to you.
35:43
We'll post about the book Sweatsharp Contrarian plays all
35:45
night long. So as always, guys coming off a
35:48
one and two or a two and one, A3 and O or an O and three.
35:51
A good night, a bad. Night.
35:52
A hot streak, a cold streak we just got.
35:54
To stay even. Keeled can't get cocky and
35:56
arrogant and think betting is easy when we're doing well.
35:59
We can't give up or say screw it and start chasing when we're
36:02
struggling. Just got to stay even keeled.
36:05
I always joke about this one of my favorite movies, the departed
36:08
Leo. He always said see my hand.
36:10
It doesn't shake. So that's.
36:12
How we got to be we can't shake. We just got to keep grinding the
36:16
model, which is finding games that fit our criteria against
36:20
the public with the house, with the pros.
36:22
Flat bat, avoid parlays and get that CLV.
36:24
If we can do that. We're going to be successful
36:26
sports vendors. So have a great Friday
36:28
everybody. Have an even better weekend.
36:30
I'll see you back on Monday for episode 415 of the All Systems
36:34
Go Sports Betting podcast. Have a great weekend everybody
36:38
and good luck.