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May 12 | Closing Market Report · Closing Market Report

• cmr260512 - Ag Markets with Naomi Blohm - WILLAg News | Senate Farm Bill, Beef Imports, Trump v Xi - E15 Supports Hold Press Conference on the Capitol Steps - Ag Weather with Don Day Todd Gleason: From the land-grant University in Urbana-Champaign, Illinois, this is the closing market report. It is the 12th day of May 2026. It is USDA report day. Coming up, we will discuss this morning's report on the new crop supply and demand tables for both corn and soybeans with Naomi Blohm. She is at totalfarmmarketing.com. I will update you on the agricultural news for the afternoon, and we will also hear from Nikki Budzinski. She is the 13th Congressional District Representative in the United States Congress from Illinois and was on the Capitol steps earlier today with representatives from both sides of the aisle to urge passage of an E15 bill that is making its way through the House and will be voted on tomorrow. As we wrap up our time together, we will talk about the weather forecast, too. We will do that with Don Day from DayWeather in Cheyenne, Wyoming, on this Tuesday edition of the closing market report from Illinois Public Media. It is public radio for the farming world. Todd Gleason services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension. July corn at the CME Group settled at $4.80, up 4 and 3/4. December settled at $5.02, up 4 and 1/4. July beans settled at $12.26 and 3/4, 13 and 3/4 higher. New crop November was up 10 and 1/4. There was a settlement price above $12 at $12.05. July soft red winter wheat was 45 higher at $6.79 for the day. 01:36 Ag Markets with Naomi Blohm Todd Gleason: Naomi Blohm from totalfarmmarketing.com now joins us to take a look at the marketplace. Hi, Naomi. It is a busy week. It starts today with the USDA's first look at new crop corn and soybean supply and demand tables in the monthly WASDE, or World Ag Supply and Demand Estimates. What did it show? Naomi Blohm: I have to tell you, I was really unimpressed with the corn information. Everything pretty much came out as expected. The bottom line is that we are dealing with nearly a 2 billion bushel carryout between the old crop and the new crop. On the soybeans, what I was surprised by was the USDA increased demand for exports for soybeans, and I did not think that would happen. They have them now at 1.63 billion bushels, up from 1.53 from last year, and they increased crush. Bottom line, ending stocks for the new crop beans are going to be potentially down near 310 million bushels. It just makes sure that we have a lot of good weather later this summer. You could argue whether we are going to get more bean acres between now and this summer. There are lots of questions. I feel like that is why the corn and soybean market today, with wheat being up nearly limit 45 cents, corn only up about three, and beans up about eight, is really trying to decide if they have a fundamental reason to get above $5 resistance on new crop corn and $12 resistance on new crop beans. It is almost like the corn and bean markets were just breathing a sigh of relief here that it wasn't super negative with the wheat being friendly, which was helpful. To your point, Todd, we have a whole lot of other stuff to talk about for the rest of the week, and it's almost like corn and soybeans just really want to focus on that instead. Todd Gleason: Let's pick up with all the rest of the things that are happening this week, starting with tomorrow evening our time. President Trump will be meeting with President Xi by the time we get to the Thursday closing market report, and we will have everything in hand. What do we think is going to take place there? Naomi Blohm: Who knows? When you look at the entourage that is going with him, there is only one person in agriculture with him, Brian Sikes from Cargill. Everybody else is from companies like Apple, Tesla, Blackstone, BlackRock, aerospace companies, and Mastercard. There are a lot of different factors with Trump. We will see if there is actually anything agriculture-related or not. Is it going to be buy the rumor, sell the fact? If we don't get any very specific demand news for agriculture from China, the market might be prone to a sell-off by the end of the week. We are a little bit cautious about that for tomorrow. There is also going to be a vote tomorrow on E15 from Congress. That is still out there as a possibility, so that could be something that comes at us tomorrow. For the rest of the week, on Thursday, CONAB numbers come out. We are going to get another fresh look at the size of that Brazil crop. There is plenty of data coming at us to keep this market hopping for the rest of the week. Todd Gleason: I was wondering about that E15 vote, and we will hear about it in just a moment here. Nikki Budzinski, along with other Congress members from across the Midwest, gathered outside the Capitol at about 11:30, and we will hear a portion of what she had to say. However, it seems awfully important to me that this was scheduled as a vote when the President was going to be out of the country, and I do not know what that means. We will just leave it at that because it will be interesting to see how that takes place for E15 tomorrow. Looking forward to Thursday morning, we will get numbers, as you said, from CONAB about the Brazil crop, both soy and corn. That corn crop keeps being used for ethanol there. Do you think they will increase ethanol usage for corn and consequently decrease exports of corn, which might be good for the marketplace? Naomi Blohm: That is what we are all wondering and watching. Brazil has been vocal about wanting to increase demand for corn use for ethanol, without a doubt. To your point, if that does occur, a good chunk of that second crop corn gets exported. Now you are going to have a situation where they keep more of that second crop corn internally, in which case it might allow more exports of U.S. corn to go to the world. However, the USDA today on their report pegged old crop corn exports at 3.3 billion bushels, but for next year, they reduced it to 3.15. The plot thickens, Todd, and we have lots of data to continue to sift through all week long. Todd Gleason: The last thing you said before I asked the question was it was possible that soybeans could sell off. I wonder what you think that might mean for producers today as they look at a settlement price for November beans that was above $12. Naomi Blohm: We have been at these levels before, and today's close is not super convincing that the market is just going to continue to go higher. It is very much a "tune in tomorrow, see what the news is" situation. If we have a second-day close of November beans above $12 and a second-day close of December corn above $5, that says there might be a little bit more technical strength as the week goes on. But if we cannot get a stronger close tomorrow, it is a reminder we are in that seasonal window between Mother's Day and Father's Day where prices can often start to retreat a little bit lower if we don't have very specific demand news to get the market to go higher. Todd Gleason: At a $12.05 settlement today for soybeans in the November contract and $5.02 in the corn, do producers need to take advantage of that if they are concerned about late week, or can they just wait it out? Naomi Blohm: If it were mine, I would be plugging away with just a little bit more sales to reward what is there. It is going to take very specific new demand news from China and the government voting with E15 to really get this market to go higher. With the wheat market up strong today, we might see the market just a little firmer at the opening, but there is a very strong wheat seasonal that indicates a sell signal based on the 5- and 15-year pattern. Past performance is not indicative of future results, but May 15th is the date for Chicago July wheat and Chicago July Kansas City wheat. Just be cautious. We are in that zone where funds are near historical long levels for pricing, and if they get spooked and start to be sellers, they can walk away pretty easily. Todd Gleason: Thank you very much. We appreciate it. That, of course, is Naomi Blohm. She is with totalfarmmarketing.com. 08:55 WILLAg News | Senate Farm Bill, Beef Imports, Trump v Xi Todd Gleason: In today's agricultural news, we have a lot of ground to cover. We will start in Washington, D.C., where prospects for the farm bill are not looking good in the Senate. That is according to one long-time senator. Iowa Republican Charles Grassley says his recent conversations with Senate Ag Chair John Boozman do not bode well for the Senate farm bill. Charles Grassley: I do not think Boozman feels he has much chance of getting a bipartisan bill out of the Senate Ag Committee. Todd Gleason: That led Grassley to again conclude: Charles Grassley: I haven't changed my view that we are probably going to have to work off of the House bill because of the inability to get Democrat support to get the ag bill out of the Senate Ag Committee. Todd Gleason: The House-passed farm bill would continue SNAP anti-fraud reforms Democrats opposed in the President's tax bill last summer, forcing high error-rate states to pick up more SNAP costs. Charles Grassley: We cannot allow states that have 20% fraud to continue to waste the taxpayers' money that way. Todd Gleason: Grassley suggests the SNAP fight could prove fatal to the House farm bill as well. Charles Grassley: It's not going to make it any easier to get the House bill up in the Senate. Todd Gleason: Grassley's insight suggests the three-year struggle to pass a farm bill, overcoming Democrats' objections particularly after SNAP has been taken out of it for the most part, means that reform really isn't quite over yet. Let's stay with the Senate, but move out of D.C. Kansas Senator Jerry Moran is one of a handful of U.S. Senators who have been in Beijing, China, ahead of tomorrow's meeting between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. Senator Moran says besides meeting with officials from the U.S. Embassy in Beijing, they have been busy meeting with Chinese officials. Jerry Moran: We met with the Premier, the number two person in the Chinese government, the head of the legislature, and the foreign minister, all with a message about wanting success in the summit that President Trump and President Xi are conducting. In particular, the focus for me and a number of my colleagues has been the need for China to reach agreements and actually abide by those agreements to import our agriculture commodities from the United States. In every conversation we have had, it has been about beef, soybeans, and grain sorghum, and really a longer list than that. Some of the senators I am traveling with have been talking about fruits, vegetables, and dairy, but the common denominator has been beef. No one would say there is going to be a deal, but the way they used the words implied that there is a deal in the works regarding agriculture commodities and beef from the meetings with President Trump and President Xi. There were a couple of times where there was a caveat regarding something they are complaining about concerning the United States and what we are doing. All these negotiations are give and take, but I think there is a real belief that agriculture will see some benefit. Todd Gleason: Moran says there is little doubt that agriculture will be high on President Trump's list of priorities. Senator Moran is one of five senators who have been in China ahead of the President's visit. Speaking of the President, the Trump administration is moving to increase flexibility for beef imports as U.S. cattle inventories remain near historic lows. Federal officials say the temporary measures are designed to help stabilize consumer prices. The Wall Street Journal reports the proposal has divided the cattle industry. Some ranching groups warn additional imports could place downward pressure on domestic cattle markets and reduce profits for American producers already dealing with tight margins. Others say expanded imports may help processors and retailers maintain supplies during peak demand periods like the summer grilling months. Finally, this note out of Washington: 76% of U.S. employees say they will not move to Kansas City. More than three-quarters of USDA researchers affected by planned agency relocations say they do not intend to move. That is according to a survey conducted by a federal employee union, and it is raising concerns about staffing losses and disruptions to agricultural research programs. The American Federation of Government Employees Local 3403 says 76% of surveyed employees at the Economic Research Service (ERS) and the National Institute of Food and Agriculture (NIFA) indicated they would not relocate under USDA plans to move positions from D.C. to Kansas City. According to the Federal News Network union, officials warn the relocations could trigger another brain drain similar to 2019 when roughly 85% of affected employees reportedly resigned or retired rather than relocate. 14:20 E15 Supports Hold Press Conference on the Capitol Steps Todd Gleason: The push for year-round E15 gasoline is at a critical legislative juncture, driven primarily by the need for consistent agricultural demand and the desire for market certainty among fuel retailers. The debate centers upon updating decades-old regulatory frameworks to align with current domestic biofuel production capabilities. The core obstacle for E15 stems from the Clean Air Act's volatility limits, which were established in 1990. The statute restricts the sale of fuels with higher Reid Vapor Pressures during the summer driving season, from June 5th to September 15th, to help curb smog-forming emissions. While E10 was granted a statutory waiver, E15 was not, despite E15 having a slightly lower volatility than E10. Consequently, E15 sales have relied on a patchwork of temporary emergency waivers from the EPA, including a recent one that took place in May of this year and three or four of the previous years as well. Today, Congress people from across the Midwest gathered in Washington, D.C., on the Capitol steps to urge passage of legislation allowing E15 to permanently be used around the nation year-round. Nikki Budzinski represents Illinois' 13th Congressional District. Here is how she frames the issue. Nikki Budzinski: Thank you. Good afternoon, everyone. I want to thank everyone for being here. I would also like to thank our Vice Ranking Member on the House Ag Committee, Shontel Brown, for being here, as well as my Republican colleagues, Representatives Smith and Fischbach, for their leadership and partnership on this truly bipartisan issue. I also thank many of my Democratic colleagues who unfortunately could not be with us today, including Representatives Sharice Davids, Kristen McDonald, Eric Sorensen, Greg Landsman, and our Ranking Member Angie Craig. I want to thank the National Corn Growers Association for bringing all of us here together around a cause that should unite every single one of us, regardless of party or geography. This is bigger than politics. This is about our American farmers, American consumers, and American energy. It is about whether Congress is finally ready to provide the certainty our rural economies and communities have been asking for. When I first came to Congress in 2023, I made a promise to the people I represent, especially the growers, that I would always look for opportunities to reach across the aisle and find common ground. I have worked hard to keep that promise, and nowhere has bipartisan cooperation made more sense than right here with E15. E15 is one of those rare issues where everyone wins. American farmers win because it creates strong and stable markets for homegrown corn. American consumers win because E15 helps lower prices at the pump. Our economy wins because E15 supports jobs and investment in rural America. That is why this issue is a deeply personal one to me. I represent one of the leading corn-producing regions in the United States. I have sat down with family farmers, ethanol producers, and small business owners across central and southern Illinois who all understand the same thing: year-round E15 works. It works for our producers, and it works for consumers. Yet despite years of support, advocacy, and evidence proving its benefits, we are still relying on temporary waivers and short-term fixes to keep E15 available during the summer months. These waivers get us through another season, but they do not provide certainty. Farmers cannot plan for their future around temporary decisions. Producers cannot invest with confidence when policy changes year to year. Consumers should not lose access to cheaper fuel options simply because Washington refuses to finish the job. We have been close here before. In fact, it feels like every other year we get right up to the goal line, and every year politics, delays, or dysfunction get in the way. Today, we are here to say enough. Enough of the excuses, enough kicking this can down the road. The time for permanent, nationwide, year-round E15 is now. Todd Gleason: That was U.S. Representative Nikki Budzinski from Illinois' 13th Congressional District. She is a Democrat and was joined by Republicans and Democrats alike today on the Capitol steps to urge the passage of permanent year-round E15 legislation. The House is expected to vote on the bill tomorrow. 19:47 Ag Weather with Don Day Todd Gleason: Let's turn our attention now to the growing regions across the planet. Don Day is here. He is with DayWeather in Cheyenne, Wyoming. Hi, Don. Thanks for being with us. Let's begin in the Corn Belt. What are conditions on the ground like today, and what are your expectations for the next couple of weeks? Don Day: We are looking at a couple of big-picture items that will end up dominating the weather across the Midwest and Corn Belt. First of all, we have discussed this very large area of cold air over Canada, which has made a good part of May very cool. In the short term, many temperatures over the next couple of days in the central and eastern United States and the Great Lakes are going to be cooler than average, probably all the way through Thursday. However, warmer air is going to get pushed out from the west. After a little bit of cool May weather, warmer temperatures are coming. This weekend, that will help spawn some shower and thunderstorm activity. We need to be on the lookout as we get into the end of this week and this weekend; as that warmer, moist air comes in, we are probably going to get into some shower and thunderstorm activity, and some of it will be strong in parts of the central U.S. Todd Gleason: Is there anything we need to know about week two? Don Day: Week two is going to be interesting because I'm not sure we have a good handle on it. With that low moving out of Canada and basically going through its life cycle and going away, we are at an interesting cusp of that winter-like pattern in Canada starting to feel impacts from the Pacific and the developing El Niño. It is still in its embryonic stages, but we are seeing some atmospheric response from it. We have a real disparity in a lot of our long-range forecasts as we go into week two. There is some indication that we will start to see a more Pacific-dominated pattern, which would be good news for western areas like Nebraska, into winter wheat country of Colorado and Kansas, providing better chances for precipitation. If we see low pressure out west, that means warmer temperatures will be found in the nation's midsection, but not necessarily a dry forecast. It could be an active thunderstorm forecast as well. We are on this cusp, and therefore there is a lot of variability in the models. Confidence in week two is not real high. Todd Gleason: Turn your attention to South America. Can we get a quick word on the safrinha corn crop in Brazil? Don Day: There is a trend for Brazil to be warmer and drier over the next week to 10 days. The colder weather is staying south in Argentina. Right now, it is going to be a little bit on the dry side in those growing areas of Brazil. Todd Gleason: Thank you much. I appreciate it. Don Day: Thank you. Todd Gleason: You're welcome. Don Day is with DayWeather in Cheyenne, Wyoming. He helped us wrap up this Tuesday edition of the Closing Market Report. It came to you from Illinois Public Media online at willag.org. I am Extension's Todd Gleason.