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How long has Sussan Ley got? · The Front

• 0:03
  Speaker 1: From the Australian. Here's what's on the front. I'm Kristin Amiot.
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  Speaker 1: It's Friday, January twenty three, twenty twenty six. Crowds gathered
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: at the Sydney Opera House on Thursday night to observe
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  Speaker 1: a day of mourning for the victims of the Bondai
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  Speaker 1: Beach terror attack. Prime Minister Anthony Albanesi, Liberal Leader Susan
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  Speaker 1: Lee and New South Wales Premier Chris Mins honored the
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  Speaker 1: fifteen people killed on December fourteenth.
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  Speaker 2: Tragically, we're gathered here tonight because on the fourteenth of
• 0:35
  Speaker 2: December everything changed, and for that I am sorry.
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  Speaker 1: There was a huge security presence in and around the
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  Speaker 1: iconic landmark ahead of the event, including police snipers perched
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  Speaker 1: on the Opera House sales around the nation, Flags on
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  Speaker 1: state and federal government buildings were flown at half mast,
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  Speaker 1: while a moment of silence was observed at seven oh
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  Speaker 1: one pm. It was a stunning moment in an already
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  Speaker 1: dramatic week of politics. Just hours after a slew of
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  Speaker 1: National senators quit the shadow front bench, the coalition was
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  Speaker 1: done over, split again. Now Susan Lee's leadership is hanging
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  Speaker 1: by a thread. So what next for Australian Conservative politics.
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  Speaker 1: That's today's episode. You'd be hard pressed to find a
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  Speaker 1: more fitting metaphor. First the bombshell, but she has.
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  Speaker 3: Also forced the Coalition into an untenable position that can
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  Speaker 3: no longer continue.
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  Speaker 1: Then the alarm bells. The Senate wing evacuated as sirens
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  Speaker 1: blared and confusion swirled. This was the scene at Parliament
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  Speaker 1: House on Thursday morning, as politicians, staffers and journalists grappled
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  Speaker 1: with the news the coalition is no more.
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  Speaker 4: The Federal Coalition is in crisis.
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  Speaker 5: This afternoon, the national sensationally splitting from their Liberal colleagues
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  Speaker 5: for the second time in less than a year.
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  Speaker 1: I spoke with The Australians senior political reporter Sarah Eisen
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  Speaker 1: on Thursday afternoon. Sarah, take me behind the scenes at
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  Speaker 1: Parliament House right now, what kind of conversations are happening
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  Speaker 1: in the aftermath of Thursday's announcement the Nationals will leave
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  Speaker 1: the coalition for a second time.
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  Speaker 5: One of those strange moments where Parliament House itself is
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  Speaker 5: almost quiet because all of the politicians have left the building,
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  Speaker 5: and yet it's such a frenzy and flurry of activity outside.
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  Speaker 4: Of this place.
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  Speaker 5: This came as a shock, I can tell you to
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  Speaker 5: almost everyone. So it's actually caught people unawares and it's
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  Speaker 5: just real shock and people trying to get a handle
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  Speaker 5: on where to from here.
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  Speaker 1: According to Nationals leader David little Proud, Susan Lee's handling
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  Speaker 1: of the government's new hate speech legislation was the straw
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  Speaker 1: that broke the camel's back.
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  Speaker 4: This was a rush process.
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  Speaker 3: We are talking about national security matters with complex legislation,
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  Speaker 3: complex legislation that should be scrutinized and understood before we're
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  Speaker 3: forced to vote on it. That was the disappointing fact
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  Speaker 3: of it.
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  Speaker 1: On Wednesday night, Senators Bridget mackenzie, Susan McDonald and Ross
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  Speaker 1: Cadell crossed the floor to vote against the bill.
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  Speaker 4: Little Prowd said they were.
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  Speaker 1: Within their rights to do that because the amended legislation
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  Speaker 1: didn't go through the usual party room process before the vote,
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  Speaker 1: But mackenzie, McDonald and Cadell quit the shadow cabinet anyway,
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  Speaker 1: and Lee accepted their resignations within hours. Their National Party colleagues,
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  Speaker 1: including Little Prowd, followed the final nail in the coalition's coffin.
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  Speaker 1: What does this dramatic fracturing of the coalition should mean
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  Speaker 1: for Susan Lee's leadership here and now it.
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  Speaker 4: Does mean her leadership is under threat. Of course, those
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  Speaker 4: closest to her.
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  Speaker 5: And the moderates and those most supportive of Susan would
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  Speaker 5: say that giving in in this instance is essentially giving
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  Speaker 5: into blackmail from the Nationals and that also that isn't
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  Speaker 5: a good idea. Of course, they're the ones who are
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  Speaker 5: her biggest backers. Those who aren't they've said, of course
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  Speaker 5: her leadership is untenable. So it really is a moment
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  Speaker 5: of crisis. But it is in Susan Lee's hands.
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  Speaker 1: Susan Lee now has a choice wait for a leadership's
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  Speaker 1: bill or resign on her own terms and in her
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  Speaker 1: own time.
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  Speaker 5: It's very much agreed that the Liberal Party can't enter
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  Speaker 5: the next sitting fortnite with this still hanging over them.
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  Speaker 5: The view is it would have to be by then
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  Speaker 5: at the latest. There's a hope that it would be
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  Speaker 5: sorted out more like mid next week or by the
• 5:00
  Speaker 5: end of next week, so you enter Parliament completely settled
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  Speaker 5: on who.
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  Speaker 4: Your leader is and what's going on.
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  Speaker 5: But it's very much something that needs to be resolved
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  Speaker 5: one way or another, and it very much looks like
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  Speaker 5: gas we resolved in one way within the next week
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  Speaker 5: and a half two weeks.
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  Speaker 1: Have any potential successes to Susan Lee emerged or is
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  Speaker 1: it a case of anything or any one is better
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  Speaker 1: than the status quo at this point.
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  Speaker 5: You know what's really kind of bitterly ironic about this
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  Speaker 5: is that we were talking about potential successes to Susan Lee.
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  Speaker 4: Might have been four months ago or.
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  Speaker 5: Something like that, and so at that time people were
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  Speaker 5: discussing people like Angus Taylor or Andrew Hasty or on
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  Speaker 5: the more moderate side, Tim Wilson. But then since Bondi,
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  Speaker 5: and then since Susan Lee landed some hits on Albanezi
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  Speaker 5: when it came to Labor having to gut its hate
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  Speaker 5: speech bill, that really wasn't happening. This leadership speculation, and
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  Speaker 5: even those who would love to see the back of
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  Speaker 5: Susan Lee within our own it caught them by surprise.
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  Speaker 5: But the point to make here is that we're still
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  Speaker 5: talking about Andrew Hassey, who has publicly declared before that
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  Speaker 5: he would be up for leadership.
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  Speaker 4: Angus Taylor.
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  Speaker 5: He's more experienced than Andrew Hasty, he's former treasurer, but
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  Speaker 5: he's also more tainted to a degree. People blame him
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  Speaker 5: somewhat for the weak economic platform that the party took to.
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  Speaker 4: The election, So it's between those two.
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  Speaker 5: When it comes to the Conservative candidate, a lot of
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  Speaker 5: their Conservative colleagues have communicated to Hasty and to Angus
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  Speaker 5: Taylor that.
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  Speaker 4: You guys need to sort it out amongst yourselves. We're
• 6:34
  Speaker 4: not going to be forced to vote for either of you.
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  Speaker 4: Even some people have told.
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  Speaker 5: These two men, I'm not going to vote for either
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  Speaker 5: of you if you make me choose, So there's.
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  Speaker 4: A sense of they have to come to a decision.
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  Speaker 5: And the most talked about Moderate Candida, interestingly is Tim Wilson.
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  Speaker 4: He's the member for Goldstein.
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  Speaker 5: He came back after having been booted from Parliament in
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  Speaker 5: twenty two through the election, so he's a lot new er,
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  Speaker 5: a lot fresher, and.
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  Speaker 4: More of that kind of dark horse.
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  Speaker 5: But he is one of those names being discussed for
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  Speaker 5: good reason in terms of his expertise, in terms of
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  Speaker 5: his respect across the liberal and conservative factions. But of course,
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  Speaker 5: after Susan Lee's election by the Moderate Party, I think
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  Speaker 5: a lot of Conservatives are keen to have their go
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  Speaker 5: now and there would be quite a lot of support
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  Speaker 5: for the Andrew Hasty and Angus Taylors of the world.
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  Speaker 1: For all that was said about her on Thursday, Susan
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: Lee was conspicuously quiet. She indicated early in the piece
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  Speaker 1: she wouldn't be talking politics on the National Day of
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: Mourning for victims of the Bondi terror attack. The question
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  Speaker 1: is should she have seen this coming?
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  Speaker 5: Look, I think people have been talking about the Liberal Party,
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  Speaker 5: the future of the Conservative movement, Susan Lee's leadership. This
• 7:48
  Speaker 5: has been something that is not new. It happened very
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  Speaker 5: quickly after her election. The point though, is that they
• 7:53
  Speaker 5: didn't see it coming this week because Susan Lee and
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  Speaker 5: key frontbenchers landed what was shaping up to be a
• 7:59
  Speaker 5: pre big win, having got labored a gut its bill,
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  Speaker 5: having seen people like Andrew Hasty and some other very
• 8:06
  Speaker 5: outspoken Conservative MPs actually vote with Susan Lee and her
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  Speaker 5: party rather than cross the floor on this legislation they
• 8:13
  Speaker 5: long said they absolutely hated right and their backbenches. They
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  Speaker 5: can do that with absolutely no repercussion. There's a real
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  Speaker 5: sense of some wins. Should they have seen it coming
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  Speaker 5: on Wednesday Thursday?
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  Speaker 4: Absolutely not. It very much blindsided a lot of.
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  Speaker 1: People coming up what next for the Nationals. Let's talk
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  Speaker 1: about the Nationals for a moment. Does this bolster their
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: position in the Australian political landscape or were they safer
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  Speaker 1: inside the coalition in the long run. I've had a
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  Speaker 1: National tell me this is the end of their career,
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  Speaker 1: so I don't think there's a sense of crazy optimism
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  Speaker 1: that this is going to put them in a great
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  Speaker 1: position going forward.
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  Speaker 4: Equally, they felt that their Liberal colleagues, at least unders
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  Speaker 4: Susan Lee, were happy to take their votes, but didn't
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  Speaker 4: really respect.
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  Speaker 5: Them or maybe didn't listen to them beyond that, And
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  Speaker 5: so there's a self righteousness there. People aren't bemoaning this
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  Speaker 5: decision or saying David Littleprit's made the wrong move or
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  Speaker 5: we made the wrong move. They're really backing it and
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  Speaker 5: saying we were prince support and so on. But at
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  Speaker 5: the same time, a lot of them are pretty clear
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  Speaker 5: eyed on the fact that this could go very badly
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  Speaker 5: when it comes to just how hard that would be
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  Speaker 5: to retain seats and so forth going forward, particularly with
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  Speaker 5: questions over Liberal Party support. Should they go to the
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  Speaker 5: election as two separate parties. I mean, that's alive and
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  Speaker 5: very much uncertain questions.
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  Speaker 4: So it's a bit of both. It's a bit of
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  Speaker 4: as I said, that self righteous.
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  Speaker 5: We did the right thing, but we're probably going to
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  Speaker 5: suffer for this in other ways. I think that's broadly
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  Speaker 5: where the party's at. But unlike the Liberals, it's less fractious.
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  Speaker 5: People are less angry at each other right now within
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  Speaker 5: the Nationals.
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  Speaker 1: Just lastly, Sarah, we've been here once before, not too
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  Speaker 1: long ago. Is there a world in which the coalition
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: kisses and makes up again or is it going to
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  Speaker 1: stick this time?
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  Speaker 5: I suppose it depends who you talk to. I know
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  Speaker 5: a lot of Liberals are really angry. Frankly, and even
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  Speaker 5: before the confirmation from David Little Proud about frontbench resignations
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  Speaker 5: and a coalition split, we're saying we should have split
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  Speaker 5: from them last year properly during that brief divorce.
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  Speaker 4: So I think as a fair bit of frustration amongst the.
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  Speaker 5: Liberals, and I think a kiss and makeup would need
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  Speaker 5: a bit of time.
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  Speaker 4: I don't think that's an immediate thing. The thing, though, I.
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  Speaker 5: Suppose that needs to be considered is if and when
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  Speaker 5: Susan Lee is replaced, who that person is and if
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  Speaker 5: David Little Proud can remain the National's leader, I think
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  Speaker 5: there'll be plenty of Liberals that will say no because
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  Speaker 5: of how hurt they are right now and frustrated with
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  Speaker 5: the Nats. There'd be plenty of nuts that say yes.
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  Speaker 5: And that's because they reflect on Peter Dutton and David
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  Speaker 5: Little Proud being able to get over some pretty big
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  Speaker 5: disagreements and being able to push forward. But that David
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  Speaker 5: Little Proud and sort of the three men that I
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  Speaker 5: raised before, who are the potential leaders that that actually
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  Speaker 5: could really work, They can see that working a lot better,
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  Speaker 5: and they imagine that maybe a leader that gets on
• 11:31
  Speaker 5: with David personally could bring his party room along. And
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  Speaker 5: it's not some kind of foregone conclusion though. If the
• 11:37
  Speaker 5: majority of the Liberal party room says we are absolutely
• 11:40
  Speaker 5: not getting back together with the coalition with David Little
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  Speaker 5: Prowd there, I mean, no matter who you are as leader,
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  Speaker 5: you have to listen the National say they will consider
• 11:48
  Speaker 5: that should that time come or that gauntlet.
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  Speaker 4: Be thrown down. So could the coalition get back together? Yes?
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  Speaker 5: Is it easy or straightforward or clear how that would happen?
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  Speaker 4: And whose leadership for both parties? Absolutely not.
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: Sarah Eisen is a senior political reporter with The Australian.
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  Speaker 1: For all the latest on the fallout from the coalition's
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  Speaker 1: big split, visit the Australian dot com dot au