Latest / Pod Save America / Trump's Arctic Humiliation

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Trump's Arctic Humiliation · Pod Save America

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• 2:10
  Speaker 3: Welcome to Pod Save America. I'm Jon Favreau.
• 2:13
  Speaker 5: I'm Dan Pfeiffer.
• 2:13
  Speaker 3: On today's show, we'll talk about J.D. Vance's trip to
• 2:16
  Speaker 3: Minneapolis to stand with the beleaguered Americans who need our
• 2:19
  Speaker 3: support right now. Hi, CJ. We'll also cover Jack Smith's
• 2:24
  Speaker 3: testimony to Congress where he defended his decision to charge
• 2:27
  Speaker 3: the current president with multiple crimes. Plus, Dan and I
• 2:31
  Speaker 3: have been just itching to dig into the newest New
• 2:34
  Speaker 3: York Times Sienna poll, which is full of bad news
• 2:37
  Speaker 3: for Trump. Just plenty of fun crosstabs for us. But first,
• 2:45
  Speaker 3: they're calling it more brilliant than Jefferson's Louisiana Purchase. More monumental.
• 2:48
  Speaker 3: More monumental. than Roosevelt's statecraft at Yalta, more daring than
• 2:54
  Speaker 3: Nixon's trip to China. That's right, Dan. Donald Trump, the
• 2:57
  Speaker 3: president of peace, the darling of Davos, duked it out
• 3:01
  Speaker 3: with Denmark over Greenland, and he art of the dealed
• 3:05
  Speaker 3: himself into his greatest achievement yet. Let's take a listen.
• 3:10
  Speaker 6: It's really hard not to see this through the lens
• 3:13
  Speaker 6: of the art of the deal.
• 3:15
  Speaker 3: The president's doubters were once again proven wrong.
• 3:19
  Speaker 5: Europe and America are going to be rich and safe.
• 3:22
  Speaker 5: And Greenland gets McDonald's.
• 3:24
  Speaker 4: Congratulations, Mr.
• 3:25
  Speaker 7: President.
• 3:25
  Speaker 5: You've done a great job.
• 3:26
  Speaker 4: Thank you.
• 3:27
  Speaker 5: Thank you.
• 3:27
  Speaker 8: So have you.
• 3:29
  Speaker 3: He got us again. When will we learn to stop
• 3:34
  Speaker 3: doubting this man? So you may be wondering... What's actually
• 3:40
  Speaker 3: in this?
• 3:41
  Speaker 5: John, do we own Greenland? Do we have it?
• 3:44
  Speaker 3: Well, let's hear directly about what's in the deal from
• 3:48
  Speaker 3: our second-hand recipient of a slightly used Nobel Peace Prize.
• 3:52
  Speaker 5: Does this ultimately mean that the U.S.
• 3:54
  Speaker 4: Will ultimately acquire Greenland?
• 3:56
  Speaker 5: Well, I don't know if I can say that, but
• 3:58
  Speaker 5: it could be. I mean, it's possible. Anything's possible.
• 4:01
  Speaker 9: Does it still include the United States having ownership of
• 4:03
  Speaker 9: Greenland like you've said you wanted?
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  Speaker 10: No.
• 4:08
  Speaker 7: It's a long-term deal. It's the ultimate long-term deal.
• 4:13
  Speaker 9: How long would the deal be, Mr.
• 4:15
  Speaker 11: President?
• 4:17
  Speaker 5: Infinite.
• 4:20
  Speaker 7: There is no time limit. It's forever.
• 4:25
  Speaker 3: The deal has broken the space-time continuum. It is just...
• 4:29
  Speaker 3: It goes forever. As long as the universe exists, there
• 4:34
  Speaker 3: will be a deal. Seems like the details are a
• 4:36
  Speaker 3: bit fuzzy. Here's Fox News' Bret Baier trying to nail
• 4:41
  Speaker 3: down the details with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte.
• 4:46
  Speaker 5: Is it still under the Kingdom of Denmark in this
• 4:50
  Speaker 5: framework deal?
• 4:53
  Speaker 8: That issue did not come up anymore in my conversations tonight, Mr. President.
• 4:57
  Speaker 8: He very much focused on what do we need to
• 5:00
  Speaker 8: do to make sure that that huge Arctic region where
• 5:03
  Speaker 8: change is taking place at the moment, where the Chinese
• 5:05
  Speaker 8: and Russians are more and more active, how we can
• 5:08
  Speaker 8: protect it. That was really the focus of our discussion.
• 5:12
  Speaker 5: It didn't come up, John. It didn't come up.
• 5:15
  Speaker 3: So in the discussions with the NATO Secretary General, That
• 5:21
  Speaker 3: led to the concept of a framework of a potential
• 5:24
  Speaker 3: deal that we're all celebrating. What never came up was U.S.
• 5:30
  Speaker 3: ownership over Greenland, which was the whole reason this entire
• 5:36
  Speaker 3: crisis began. Is that right?
• 5:39
  Speaker 5: That is correct. It is U.S. ownership of Greenland, which
• 5:42
  Speaker 5: Donald Trump demanded three hours earlier, said anything short of
• 5:46
  Speaker 5: that was insufficient and would put the entire Western world
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  Speaker 5: at risk.
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  Speaker 11: Mm-hmm.
• 5:51
  Speaker 3: And then he threatened tariffs, threatened tariffs, threatened tariffs on
• 5:55
  Speaker 3: not only Denmark, but, uh, multiple other European allies, um,
• 6:00
  Speaker 3: you know, made more than one, uh, insinuation that, uh,
• 6:04
  Speaker 3: perhaps we would invade, uh, militarily posted a couple of memes,
• 6:10
  Speaker 3: one picture of, uh, of him flanked by his two boys, uh,
• 6:15
  Speaker 3: Marco and JD, uh, and a polar bear, I believe.
• 6:20
  Speaker 3: With like a sign that said like, you know, Greenland,
• 6:23
  Speaker 3: part of America, 2026. I don't fucking remember. There was
• 6:26
  Speaker 3: like a, there's also another picture he posted of most
• 6:30
  Speaker 3: of North America with an American flag on it. Cause
• 6:33
  Speaker 3: now we're owning Canada too, I guess. Yeah.
• 6:35
  Speaker 5: The one I saw was him planting an American flag
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  Speaker 5: on Greenland, I think.
• 6:39
  Speaker 7: Yeah.
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  Speaker 5: That might as well. I didn't.
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  Speaker 3: It's like the Neil Armstrong of our time kind of thing.
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  Speaker 8: Yes.
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  Speaker 5: Did that one have a polar bear?
• 6:47
  Speaker 3: Maybe. I could be imagining the polar bear, but that's
• 6:50
  Speaker 3: going around these days. So there is no deal. We
• 6:53
  Speaker 3: did get a few more details from the New York
• 6:54
  Speaker 3: Times about what has been discussed. Potentially more U.S. military bases,
• 7:01
  Speaker 3: which we were already allowed to build. I was already
• 7:04
  Speaker 3: part of the treaty, so we could have done that anyway.
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  Speaker 10: Shh.
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  Speaker 3: Though maybe the U.S. would control just the land that
• 7:13
  Speaker 3: the bases are built on now, as opposed to just
• 7:15
  Speaker 3: building the bases on other people's lands. Though, Prime Minister
• 7:21
  Speaker 3: of Denmark, not too happy hearing that. Clearly not part
• 7:24
  Speaker 3: of the negotiations. Denmark was not part of that discussion
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  Speaker 3: in any way. So they have, like, rejected that. Maybe
• 7:31
  Speaker 3: there's a larger NATO troop presence in Greenland under American command,
• 7:35
  Speaker 3: which again... the Danes had already been willing to do.
• 7:39
  Speaker 3: They could have done just under any president at any time.
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  Speaker 3: And maybe some ban on non-NATO countries getting mining rights
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  Speaker 3: in Greenland, which again, the Danes had already been willing
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  Speaker 3: to do. So what is this?
• 7:51
  Speaker 5: What is this, John? What an existential question that is.
• 7:55
  Speaker 3: What is any of this? It's infinite.
• 7:58
  Speaker 5: Why are we here? What is a negotiation that does
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  Speaker 5: not include the people who own Greenland? That's a question.
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  Speaker 5: How does that work?
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  Speaker 3: What is Mark Ruta doing, by the way, fucking freelancing?
• 8:10
  Speaker 5: I think all the European leaders got together. One of
• 8:14
  Speaker 5: them drew the short straw and they had to go
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  Speaker 5: meet with the delusional man baby who is throwing his
• 8:20
  Speaker 5: weight around Davos. The whole thing is so embarrassing. It
• 8:25
  Speaker 5: is embarrassing for the world. It's embarrassing for the American people.
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  Speaker 5: It's embarrassing for all the people who sat in that
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  Speaker 5: room who applauded like this was not some insane fucking
• 8:33
  Speaker 5: speech happening. It's embarrassing for the European leaders who are
• 8:37
  Speaker 5: like sending friendly texts to Trump to try to get
• 8:40
  Speaker 5: on his good side, that they can try to steer
• 8:41
  Speaker 5: his insanity into a less dangerous place. The only person
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  Speaker 5: not embarrassed by this is the only, is the person
• 8:46
  Speaker 5: who should be most embarrassed, which is Donald Trump. It's
• 8:47
  Speaker 5: just so, it's like, what a gigantic waste of everyone's time.
• 8:53
  Speaker 5: Like this isn't, like there are things that Trump wants
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  Speaker 5: to do that are crazy, that are the crazy solution
• 9:00
  Speaker 5: to an actual problem, right? Like trying to build a
• 9:03
  Speaker 5: wall and make Mexico pay for it. That's an insane, impractical,
• 9:06
  Speaker 5: ineffective solution. But it is trying to solve a problem.
• 9:09
  Speaker 5: It's not how most people would solve it, but it's
• 9:10
  Speaker 5: trying to solve it. There is no problem here. He
• 9:12
  Speaker 5: invented a problem and then created an insane solution, caused
• 9:16
  Speaker 5: the stock market to lose 2%, created all kinds of instability,
• 9:19
  Speaker 5: caused people to sell off American bonds in the dollar,
• 9:22
  Speaker 5: and threatened the entire Western world order. For what?
• 9:27
  Speaker 3: I also noticed, though, that Trump, he wasn't even in
• 9:30
  Speaker 3: those interviews. He might have been a little tired from
• 9:34
  Speaker 3: all of his traveling to Davos and whatnot.
• 9:36
  Speaker 5: And football games.
• 9:37
  Speaker 3: Oh, okay. And the deal's infinite. Who knows? He had
• 9:52
  Speaker 3: that like long pause with Caitlin Collins. I haven't heard
• 9:54
  Speaker 3: these clips yet, but right before we started recording, he
• 9:57
  Speaker 3: did like a gaggle on Air Force One, I guess
• 9:59
  Speaker 3: on the way back from Davos. So they asked him
• 10:03
  Speaker 3: a few questions about this. One reporter asked, were you
• 10:06
  Speaker 3: worried about the market reaction to your tariffs on Monday
• 10:09
  Speaker 3: and Tuesday? Like, is that why this all happened? And
• 10:11
  Speaker 3: he goes, Trump said, the market reaction has been good, reporter. Well,
• 10:15
  Speaker 3: the market came back only after you backed away from
• 10:17
  Speaker 3: your threats, Trump. The market came up very nicely. And
• 10:23
  Speaker 3: then they asked him about Denmark, you know, being on
• 10:28
  Speaker 3: board with the, I guess, tiny pieces of land to
• 10:31
  Speaker 3: give the United States that the U.S. military bases were
• 10:34
  Speaker 3: built on. The reporter said, is Denmark on board with
• 10:36
  Speaker 3: this concept? Trump, I'll let you know in about two weeks.
• 10:40
  Speaker 3: There it is. The classic.
• 10:42
  Speaker 5: The old two weeks from now.
• 10:44
  Speaker 3: This one has nothing to do with Denmark, but I'm
• 10:46
  Speaker 3: just going to read it because it's kind of fun.
• 10:48
  Speaker 3: I don't know if you see on Twitter. You can
• 10:50
  Speaker 3: all Google this. It's out there. Trump now has like
• 10:52
  Speaker 3: a big bruise on his left hand. He's been bruising
• 10:55
  Speaker 3: on the right hand. He's bruising all over the place.
• 10:57
  Speaker 3: Who knows? Reporter, we saw the bruising on your hand.
• 11:00
  Speaker 3: Are you okay? I'm very good. I clipped it on
• 11:03
  Speaker 3: the table. So I put a little, what do they
• 11:05
  Speaker 3: call it? Cream on it. I clipped it. I would
• 11:10
  Speaker 3: say take aspirin if you like your heart, but don't
• 11:12
  Speaker 3: take aspirin if you want to have a little bruising.
• 11:14
  Speaker 3: I take the big aspirin. When you take the big aspirin,
• 11:17
  Speaker 3: they tell you that you bruise. The doctor said, you
• 11:19
  Speaker 3: don't have to take that, sir. You're very healthy. I said,
• 11:22
  Speaker 3: I'm not taking any chances. That's one of the side effects.
• 11:26
  Speaker 5: You know what counts as not taking chances? Taking a
• 11:28
  Speaker 5: massive dose of medication above and beyond what your doctor recommends.
• 11:32
  Speaker 5: That's a chance.
• 11:33
  Speaker 3: You take all the aspirin, you whack your hand, it bruises,
• 11:37
  Speaker 3: you put some cream on it. What's it called?
• 11:39
  Speaker 5: It is, for all the conspiracy theorists, I don't really
• 11:41
  Speaker 5: know what's going on. It is true that if you
• 11:42
  Speaker 5: take Lots of aspirin. You do brews more easily and
• 11:45
  Speaker 5: you cut more easily.
• 11:45
  Speaker 3: It's a blood thinner.
• 11:46
  Speaker 11: Yeah.
• 11:47
  Speaker 3: No, the conspiracy here is that the presence of fucking
• 11:49
  Speaker 3: lunatic is taking too much aspirin.
• 11:52
  Speaker 5: Because, you know, if two aspirin are good for you,
• 11:57
  Speaker 5: how great do you think 20 aspirin are?
• 11:58
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 11:59
  Speaker 3: Well, make sure you take the aspirin, not the Tylenol
• 12:01
  Speaker 3: or else it's, you know, late onset autism for you. Um,
• 12:08
  Speaker 3: so it is obviously not surprising that all those Fox
• 12:11
  Speaker 3: goobers would, uh, fluff trump over getting absolutely nothing that
• 12:15
  Speaker 3: he asked for but uh some of the other media
• 12:19
  Speaker 3: coverage has been wild uh we were angrily texting about
• 12:23
  Speaker 3: it this morning as we do as we do here's
• 12:27
  Speaker 3: axios uh which which listed the first place winner it
• 12:32
  Speaker 3: had five winners of trump's greenland climb down guess who
• 12:36
  Speaker 3: the first place winner was greenland's trump It was Trump.
• 12:41
  Speaker 3: Trump was the first place winner of Trump's Greenland climb down.
• 12:44
  Speaker 3: And here's the explanation. Even with concessions falling far short
• 12:49
  Speaker 3: of total control. Far short? Yeah, like, what do you
• 12:53
  Speaker 3: mean far short? There was no concessions. There was no concessions.
• 12:58
  Speaker 3: There was nothing to fall. It is far short, John.
• 13:03
  Speaker 3: It is far short. It's quite far, but it is far.
• 13:05
  Speaker 3: You know how far it is, Dan? Infinite. Infinite.
• 13:09
  Speaker 5: It's infinite far.
• 13:10
  Speaker 3: It's infinite far. Trump can still tout the art of
• 13:13
  Speaker 3: the deal to his base and retreat from an issue
• 13:17
  Speaker 3: that polls even worse than his handling of the Epstein files. Well,
• 13:22
  Speaker 3: isn't that comforting for Trump and the rest of us?
• 13:26
  Speaker 3: What a big winner. Yeah, I would say like Greenland
• 13:29
  Speaker 3: should have got number one because now the United States
• 13:33
  Speaker 3: doesn't own them just like before. Greenland literally got And
• 13:36
  Speaker 3: in Denmark, got 100% of what they wanted, except, I guess,
• 13:41
  Speaker 3: berated and threatened on the world stage and a lot
• 13:44
  Speaker 3: of time wasted trying to figure out how to deal
• 13:47
  Speaker 3: with the fucking madman that has taken over America.
• 13:50
  Speaker 5: I did not get past number one on this list
• 13:52
  Speaker 5: because at that point I felt I needed to put... Oh,
• 13:54
  Speaker 5: so you're not going to answer my question, which is
• 13:55
  Speaker 5: where did Greenland land on the list?
• 13:57
  Speaker 3: That's a good question. Should we look? Let's see.
• 14:00
  Speaker 5: Let's do this live, yeah.
• 14:01
  Speaker 3: Top five winners, Greenland... Let's see. Five winners. Okay. Here
• 14:08
  Speaker 3: we go. Here we go.
• 14:09
  Speaker 5: Give us the winners in order.
• 14:10
  Speaker 3: Okay.
• 14:11
  Speaker 10: Yeah.
• 14:11
  Speaker 3: We'll obviously start with five. Number five. Even Davos itself
• 14:19
  Speaker 3: emerged with its relevance renewed. Oh my God. Oh my God. Okay.
• 14:26
  Speaker 3: Number four. Markets. Markets flex their muscle as a meaningful
• 14:30
  Speaker 3: constraint on Trump's behavior. Good job, Markets. Thank you, Markets.
• 14:36
  Speaker 3: Number three, Europe. Europe avoided a potentially catastrophic trade war. Okay,
• 14:41
  Speaker 3: that's fair. Europe did. Europe did win. Number two, Denmark
• 14:46
  Speaker 3: and Greenland.
• 14:46
  Speaker 5: So there you go.
• 14:48
  Speaker 8: All right.
• 14:48
  Speaker 5: At least they made the top two.
• 14:50
  Speaker 3: Yeah. Just to go on on the Trump winning. The
• 14:53
  Speaker 3: Trump always chickens out. Taco mockery popularized on Wall Street
• 14:57
  Speaker 3: may sting, but the president's MAGA machine is already moving
• 15:00
  Speaker 3: to sell the deal as a total victory. Of course
• 15:04
  Speaker 3: they are. And since they are, we must treat it
• 15:06
  Speaker 3: seriously because they are the MAGA base. They are the
• 15:11
  Speaker 3: MAGA machine. Okay, so there's that.
• 15:14
  Speaker 5: Can we just say one thing about the Davos coverage
• 15:15
  Speaker 5: in general?
• 15:16
  Speaker 3: Yes, please.
• 15:18
  Speaker 5: There is just something self-referentially gross about all the Davos
• 15:22
  Speaker 5: coverage over the last week. All the media, all the
• 15:25
  Speaker 5: insider newsletter types, Axios, Politico, Semaphore, they all go to
• 15:29
  Speaker 5: Davos and they throw big parties and they hang out
• 15:32
  Speaker 5: with their... their advertisers, and then they talk about how
• 15:35
  Speaker 5: important Davos is. Davos is the winner of all of them.
• 15:39
  Speaker 3: I wonder if they write any stories while they're there
• 15:43
  Speaker 3: about the Democratic Party being out of touch and too
• 15:47
  Speaker 3: in bed with the elites. Do you think they talked
• 15:52
  Speaker 3: to Trump and all the Republicans and all the Trump
• 15:54
  Speaker 3: administration people who went about that, about how they ran
• 15:57
  Speaker 3: against Democrats cozying up with the elites for so long?
• 16:01
  Speaker 3: Do you think that's what they all talked about?
• 16:03
  Speaker 5: Yeah, I think also I was surprised that no one
• 16:06
  Speaker 5: that I could see reported there pointed out that Donald
• 16:09
  Speaker 5: Trump intended to give a speech on affordable housing to
• 16:13
  Speaker 5: a group of moneyed elites in the Swiss Alps.
• 16:16
  Speaker 3: Well, his treasury secretary talked about the average mom and
• 16:20
  Speaker 3: pop retiring and buying what? Five, 10, 11, 12 houses?
• 16:24
  Speaker 3: That was another. That was a real thing that happened.
• 16:27
  Speaker 3: That was a real thing that happened.
• 16:27
  Speaker 5: This is a billionaire president with a cabinet full of
• 16:30
  Speaker 5: billionaires going to hang out with billionaires to talk about
• 16:32
  Speaker 5: the economy. It's fucking bananas and it should be covered
• 16:35
  Speaker 5: as such.
• 16:36
  Speaker 3: And instead they just fucking rampaged around Davos trying to
• 16:40
  Speaker 3: like fucking blow up the world order and threatening to
• 16:43
  Speaker 3: invade Greenland only to back down and come home with
• 16:46
  Speaker 3: nothing but a huge bruise from taking too much aspirin.
• 16:49
  Speaker 5: But also saying that Trump almost upended the entire Western
• 16:54
  Speaker 5: world order at Davos made it relevant. is like saying
• 16:57
  Speaker 5: that OJ Simpson made four Broncos cool again.
• 16:59
  Speaker 3: Like, what?
• 17:01
  Speaker 5: You're just the scene of the crime. There's nothing cool
• 17:03
  Speaker 5: about that. Jesus Christ.
• 17:09
  Speaker 3: Oh, congratulations, Donald Trump.
• 17:11
  Speaker 5: And Davos.
• 17:12
  Speaker 3: And Davos, of course. You gotta hand it to Davos.
• 17:14
  Speaker 3: You gotta hand it to Davos. Of course, Trump also
• 17:17
  Speaker 3: scored another big Davos win on Thursday with the formal
• 17:20
  Speaker 3: launch of his Board of Peace, where countries can pony
• 17:23
  Speaker 3: up $ 1 billion... to join an entity that was originally
• 17:26
  Speaker 3: conceived to oversee the reconstruction of Gaza, but has now
• 17:29
  Speaker 3: turned into Trump's own model UN. This is like his
• 17:32
  Speaker 3: own little toy UN. Here's CNN's Caitlin Collins again, who
• 17:37
  Speaker 3: you heard earlier, asking a pretty smart question about the
• 17:40
  Speaker 3: whole effort.
• 17:41
  Speaker 9: You talked about being concerned, Mr. President, about Russia trying
• 17:44
  Speaker 9: to come and take over Greenland. If you're worried that
• 17:46
  Speaker 9: Putin would do something like that, why invite him to
• 17:49
  Speaker 9: join your board of peace?
• 17:50
  Speaker 7: Because we want everybody.
• 17:51
  Speaker 8: We want all nations.
• 17:53
  Speaker 7: We want all nations where... People have control.
• 17:55
  Speaker 4: People have power.
• 17:56
  Speaker 7: Yeah, I have some controversial people on it, but these
• 17:59
  Speaker 7: are people that get the job done. These are people
• 18:01
  Speaker 7: that have tremendous influence. But all babies on the board,
• 18:05
  Speaker 7: there wouldn't be very much. So he was invited. He's accepted.
• 18:11
  Speaker 7: Many people have accepted. I don't know of anybody that
• 18:13
  Speaker 7: hasn't accepted.
• 18:15
  Speaker 3: No fucking babies on board.
• 18:17
  Speaker 5: A board full of babies would not work. It wouldn't.
• 18:20
  Speaker 5: He's right about this one. I hate to say it.
• 18:23
  Speaker 3: Also from the F-1 gaggle. President Putin said that he
• 18:27
  Speaker 3: may use frozen Russian assets to pay for his entry
• 18:30
  Speaker 3: to the Board of Peace. Were you inclined to let
• 18:32
  Speaker 3: him do that? I don't know about that. I've heard
• 18:34
  Speaker 3: that a little. Who said that? President Putin. He said
• 18:37
  Speaker 3: he was going to use his money? Reporter. Frozen assets. Yeah,
• 18:40
  Speaker 3: it's fine. He's using his money.
• 18:41
  Speaker 5: That's how policy gets made.
• 18:47
  Speaker 10: What?
• 18:47
  Speaker 3: Like, we don't want, we got to invade Greenland because
• 18:51
  Speaker 3: we don't want the Russians getting a foothold in Greenland.
• 18:54
  Speaker 3: But the war criminal that is currently running Russia can
• 18:59
  Speaker 3: use the assets we all froze to pay Trump for
• 19:02
  Speaker 3: a seat on his board of peace because you don't
• 19:04
  Speaker 3: want any babies on that board.
• 19:06
  Speaker 5: Did you ever get to the bottom of the paying
• 19:07
  Speaker 5: Trump personally for this thing?
• 19:09
  Speaker 3: So it's going into a fund. Who knows? The bank's
• 19:12
  Speaker 3: probably in Qatar like the rest of the.
• 19:14
  Speaker 5: I have to be honest, I did a real deep
• 19:16
  Speaker 5: dive on the Qatari bank thing.
• 19:18
  Speaker 3: Yeah, what do you think? It's okay?
• 19:20
  Speaker 5: Well, it's... it is not as crazy as it sounds
• 19:24
  Speaker 5: on its face in part because, because of our new
• 19:27
  Speaker 5: ownership of Venezuelan oil, we have to invade a bunch
• 19:29
  Speaker 5: of sanctions. So we have to put it in a
• 19:31
  Speaker 5: banking cutter.
• 19:33
  Speaker 3: Yeah. Well, because yeah, we always love to follow the
• 19:34
  Speaker 3: law letter of the law. That's the Trump administration. No,
• 19:37
  Speaker 3: so they all pay a billion dollars and the, uh,
• 19:39
  Speaker 3: the billion dollars is supposed to go towards still, um,
• 19:42
  Speaker 3: helping to rebuild Gaza and then other projects around the world,
• 19:46
  Speaker 3: other war-torn countries, places, because we know from experience here
• 19:54
  Speaker 3: in the United States that this administration and this president
• 19:57
  Speaker 3: wants to make sure that money goes to foreign aid
• 20:01
  Speaker 3: and foreign development overseas to people who need it.
• 20:03
  Speaker 5: That's been one of his priorities since the outset.
• 20:06
  Speaker 7: Yeah.
• 20:06
  Speaker 3: So I assume that this is just, it's all going
• 20:08
  Speaker 3: to a good cause.
• 20:10
  Speaker 5: I mean, there is alternative plan that doesn't involve Putin.
• 20:15
  Speaker 3: What's that?
• 20:15
  Speaker 5: Agency within the State Department, funded by Congress, that could
• 20:21
  Speaker 5: dispense aid to war-torn parts of the country to help
• 20:25
  Speaker 5: people rebuild, have food, have clean water, avoid diseases. We
• 20:29
  Speaker 5: could call it USAID as an option.
• 20:32
  Speaker 3: That's as dumb as thinking there could be a a
• 20:34
  Speaker 3: body made up of countries around the world that could
• 20:36
  Speaker 3: help solve international conflict. And you'd like call it the
• 20:39
  Speaker 3: United Nations, you know, it's just as crazy.
• 20:42
  Speaker 5: We have to tear things down to then rebuild up
• 20:44
  Speaker 5: a lesser version of them.
• 20:46
  Speaker 3: Which is Trump's name on them. That is basically the
• 20:49
  Speaker 3: last 10 years. So no one, no one hasn't accepted. Everyone,
• 20:53
  Speaker 3: everyone wants to be part of this board, except for
• 20:55
  Speaker 3: any of our actual allies. Canadian prime minister, Mark Carney,
• 20:59
  Speaker 3: he gave a big speech at Davos that everyone's been
• 21:01
  Speaker 3: talking about. And in that speech, he said, quote, We
• 21:04
  Speaker 3: are in the midst of a rupture, not a transition.
• 21:07
  Speaker 3: And that now is the time for the middle powers
• 21:09
  Speaker 3: to band together. So big speech from Carney, got all
• 21:14
  Speaker 3: of our allies basically just saying, you know, the entire
• 21:19
  Speaker 3: post-World War II international order that America helped build and
• 21:23
  Speaker 3: sustained for the last several decades, seems like Trump broke
• 21:27
  Speaker 3: it and it's going to be hard to fix and
• 21:30
  Speaker 3: we're going to have to look elsewhere. What do you think?
• 21:32
  Speaker 3: You feeling proud to be an American?
• 21:34
  Speaker 5: That's great. Every once in a while, I dare to
• 21:38
  Speaker 5: picture what it would be like if a Democrat wins.
• 21:40
  Speaker 5: You think about all the things that they have to do.
• 21:43
  Speaker 5: And I think about when Obama came in, because if people,
• 21:47
  Speaker 5: if those old nuts remember, would be, the world hated
• 21:50
  Speaker 5: America because of the Iraq War. We were a laughingstock.
• 21:53
  Speaker 5: I always tell a story. My wife went to Ireland
• 21:54
  Speaker 5: when she was in college, and she told everyone she
• 21:56
  Speaker 5: was Canadian because people were so mad about the Iraq
• 21:59
  Speaker 5: War while she was there. And Then Obama went around.
• 22:03
  Speaker 5: Everyone was like, Obama's here.
• 22:04
  Speaker 3: Apology tour.
• 22:05
  Speaker 5: We did our apology tour. Everyone was really happy. We
• 22:08
  Speaker 5: went back. Trump gets elected in 2016. The world could
• 22:13
  Speaker 5: convince itself that this was a one-time accident of history,
• 22:17
  Speaker 5: black swan event that allowed this fucking lunatic who represented
• 22:21
  Speaker 5: nothing other than the views of himself to be president
• 22:24
  Speaker 5: of the United States. He goes through the whole thing.
• 22:27
  Speaker 5: He leaves. Joe Biden comes back. Institutions are back. we're
• 22:30
  Speaker 5: going to like, it's just this aberration. We're going to
• 22:32
  Speaker 5: go back to what has been a bipartisan consensus for
• 22:34
  Speaker 5: 80 years about how, you know, Republicans and Democrats would
• 22:38
  Speaker 5: disagree on how you implement that world order about money
• 22:42
  Speaker 5: for this versus money for that, or even conflict here
• 22:44
  Speaker 5: versus conflict there. But the idea that these institutions were
• 22:48
  Speaker 5: absolutely essential to global stability and American security, that was
• 22:52
  Speaker 5: something we all agreed on. And it's why absent Trump,
• 22:56
  Speaker 5: there is largely a bipartisan agreement, at least in the Senate,
• 22:59
  Speaker 5: about funding for Ukraine, right? Like there was a bipartisan census.
• 23:06
  Speaker 5: That's gone. Now that Trump has been reelected, the world
• 23:09
  Speaker 5: is never going to feel confident that the United States
• 23:12
  Speaker 5: is not always four years away from electing an isolationist doofus.
• 23:16
  Speaker 5: Like that's always going to be there. And so the
• 23:18
  Speaker 5: world order as we understand it, or at least as
• 23:22
  Speaker 5: we understood it before Trump came back in, I don't
• 23:26
  Speaker 5: think we're going back to that in any way, shape
• 23:27
  Speaker 5: or form because it's, you know, Mark Carney's right. Everyone
• 23:30
  Speaker 5: has to start, these other countries who relied on the
• 23:32
  Speaker 5: United States for security and stability are going to have
• 23:36
  Speaker 5: to look elsewhere. They need a belt suspenders approach because
• 23:39
  Speaker 5: even if a president, Kamala Harris, Gavin Newsom, AOC, Joshua,
• 23:43
  Speaker 5: whoever comes in and goes back to the way, you know, Reagan, Bush, Obama,
• 23:48
  Speaker 5: Biden did it, they can't assume that that's going to
• 23:51
  Speaker 5: be that way 48 years later. And so like the
• 23:54
  Speaker 5: world is headed to a very, very different place because
• 23:56
  Speaker 5: Trump is like just basically shat all over everything.
• 24:00
  Speaker 3: And we should be clear that it's not just like
• 24:04
  Speaker 3: we are pining for international rules and institutions.
• 24:09
  Speaker 5: Yeah, most of them are broken.
• 24:11
  Speaker 3: For the sake of it, right? But when they weren't
• 24:14
  Speaker 3: broken or when they worked better than they did even
• 24:17
  Speaker 3: before Trump broke them and destroyed them, they kept us safer.
• 24:22
  Speaker 3: They kept the world safer. And they kept Americans safer.
• 24:25
  Speaker 3: And they kept Americans more prosperous.
• 24:27
  Speaker 8: Yeah.
• 24:29
  Speaker 3: It's going to be more difficult to live in a
• 24:31
  Speaker 3: world where countries are turning to places like China for
• 24:38
  Speaker 3: economic development, for security. I think Carney, I'm paraphrasing a
• 24:42
  Speaker 3: line from his speech, but he said something like in
• 24:44
  Speaker 3: a world where there's just more fortresses because different countries
• 24:48
  Speaker 3: are making different alliances and trying to like build up
• 24:51
  Speaker 3: their own security, then like that's a world that is
• 24:54
  Speaker 3: more brittle, more dangerous, more prone to violence. And That's
• 25:00
  Speaker 3: where he's leading us. And like you said, I believe
• 25:04
  Speaker 3: and hope that Democrat wins and the next president really
• 25:09
  Speaker 3: does make great strides in repairing some of these relationships.
• 25:12
  Speaker 3: But don't think we're going back for at least a
• 25:15
  Speaker 3: generation at this point, thanks to Donald Trump and the
• 25:19
  Speaker 3: Republicans in Congress and everyone who has allowed him to
• 25:22
  Speaker 3: do this and supported him doing this.
• 25:25
  Speaker 5: This is not to say that NATO does not need reform,
• 25:27
  Speaker 5: that the United Nations does not need massive reform. But
• 25:30
  Speaker 5: it's the basic idea that the United States is more
• 25:33
  Speaker 5: secure if we work together with our allies, if we
• 25:37
  Speaker 5: have as many allies as possible, if there is international
• 25:40
  Speaker 5: agreements that are adhered to, that there are security agreements
• 25:44
  Speaker 5: that are adhered to, that working together leads to stability,
• 25:49
  Speaker 5: and that what Trump is pushing us back towards is
• 25:51
  Speaker 5: a pre-World War II mentality of might makes right. And
• 25:55
  Speaker 5: that may seem great for the United States in this
• 25:57
  Speaker 5: exact moment right now, but it may not be down
• 25:59
  Speaker 5: the line. And so you have to sort of think
• 26:02
  Speaker 5: ahead and you just, like, it's all so, it's not being,
• 26:05
  Speaker 5: Trump is not replacing it with something else, right? If
• 26:07
  Speaker 5: you were to come in and say, the way the
• 26:09
  Speaker 5: world has worked before is not working. Here's a different way.
• 26:12
  Speaker 5: It is just like, tear it down, you know, reap
• 26:16
  Speaker 5: the benefits and move on.
• 26:18
  Speaker 3: And, you know, America got to be a superpower, right?
• 26:22
  Speaker 3: under that order, right? It's not just like we were
• 26:24
  Speaker 3: one of a whole bunch of countries. The rest of
• 26:26
  Speaker 3: the world, much of the rest of the world looked
• 26:28
  Speaker 3: to us and they admired our values, even if we
• 26:31
  Speaker 3: haven't always lived up to them. And like our prosperity
• 26:35
  Speaker 3: as a country, we're the richest country in the world
• 26:37
  Speaker 3: based on that. And we're the most powerful military in
• 26:39
  Speaker 3: the world based on that, right? We didn't get to
• 26:41
  Speaker 3: that just by playing by the Donald Trump might makes
• 26:44
  Speaker 3: right rules. So, but the good news is in the
• 26:48
  Speaker 3: board of peace, we got a new crew. We got Turkey.
• 26:52
  Speaker 3: We got the stands. You're Kazakhstan. You're all the stands.
• 26:56
  Speaker 3: We got the Gulf states in the Middle East. Get
• 26:58
  Speaker 3: your Saudi Arabia's, your UAE, Qatar, Belarus, Hungary, Netanyahu. He's
• 27:04
  Speaker 3: agreed to join the peace board. Good news. Tougher news.
• 27:07
  Speaker 3: Couldn't attend the signing ceremony as he is wanted by
• 27:10
  Speaker 3: the ICC for alleged war crimes. So that's tough. Uh,
• 27:14
  Speaker 3: same thing with Putin, another ICC war criminal fugitive, but
• 27:19
  Speaker 3: you know, he's also busy, uh, you know, uh, invading Ukraine. Um, and, uh,
• 27:23
  Speaker 3: he signed up allegedly though. We haven't confirmed that. So
• 27:26
  Speaker 3: no one get too excited, but apparently he is going
• 27:28
  Speaker 3: to use some frozen assets to pay for that fee. So,
• 27:32
  Speaker 3: and you know, Jared, Jared Kushner was out there today
• 27:35
  Speaker 3: with a slideshow, uh, making, making Gaza look like a
• 27:39
  Speaker 3: fucking shopping mall, I guess. I don't know. It was, uh,
• 27:42
  Speaker 3: Pretty bleak, Dan. Pretty bleak.
• 27:44
  Speaker 5: It was not a great couple of days for the world.
• 27:46
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• 30:33
  Speaker 3: All right. The war at home isn't going much better
• 30:36
  Speaker 3: for America. Minnesota is still under siege by thousands of
• 30:39
  Speaker 3: armed federal agents who are terrorizing citizens and non-citizens alike.
• 30:44
  Speaker 3: Police chiefs and law enforcement officials in Minnesota held a
• 30:47
  Speaker 3: press conference Wednesday to say that ICE officers are are
• 30:51
  Speaker 3: racially profiling U.S. citizens, including their own off-duty police officers
• 30:57
  Speaker 3: in Minnesota, one of whom, ICE officers, they boxed in
• 31:02
  Speaker 3: her car, they held her up at gunpoint, demanded to
• 31:06
  Speaker 3: see her papers, and then when she began to film them,
• 31:10
  Speaker 3: they knocked the phone out of her hand. Then she
• 31:14
  Speaker 3: let them know that she is a police officer, and
• 31:17
  Speaker 3: what did the ICE agents do? Do you think they apologized?
• 31:20
  Speaker 3: Do you think they say, oh, sorry, we didn't. No,
• 31:22
  Speaker 3: they ran away because they are cowards and they don't
• 31:24
  Speaker 3: identify themselves. So that's what happened. That was a group
• 31:27
  Speaker 3: of police chiefs, law enforcement officials that held that press
• 31:30
  Speaker 3: conference in Minnesota. Wild. There was also an AP story
• 31:34
  Speaker 3: about an internal ICE memo that a whistleblower sent to
• 31:37
  Speaker 3: the Senate that claims federal immigration officers now have the
• 31:41
  Speaker 3: power to enter our homes without a judge's warrant. a
• 31:46
  Speaker 3: memo that has reportedly been used to train the agency's
• 31:49
  Speaker 3: newer agents. No more judicial warrants needed, only what they're
• 31:55
  Speaker 3: saying is administrative warrants, which are warrants signed by ICE
• 31:59
  Speaker 3: agents to enforce immigration enforcement, and now they can use
• 32:03
  Speaker 3: those to barge into a home where they suspect that
• 32:07
  Speaker 3: an undocumented immigrant may be. There's also the story we
• 32:11
  Speaker 3: heard on Thursday of five-year-old Liam Conejo Ramos saying, who
• 32:15
  Speaker 3: ICE detained while arresting his father, and then shipped them
• 32:19
  Speaker 3: both to a detention facility in Texas, despite another member
• 32:23
  Speaker 3: of the five-year-old boy's household pleading, begging with ICE to
• 32:27
  Speaker 3: let the boy stay in Minnesota, which of course they
• 32:29
  Speaker 3: are supposed to do. Naturally, the White House dispatched its
• 32:33
  Speaker 3: most empathetic senior official to Minneapolis, J.D. Vance, who held
• 32:37
  Speaker 3: an event with ICE agents where he scolded all of
• 32:40
  Speaker 3: us for not believing the government's lies. Let's listen.
• 32:44
  Speaker 11: The local police chiefs have said their own off-duty officers,
• 32:49
  Speaker 11: so police officers, are being targeted because they are a
• 32:53
  Speaker 11: person of color and asked to show their papers. Is
• 32:56
  Speaker 11: that a concern of the administration?
• 32:59
  Speaker 3: Look, certainly is it a concern?
• 33:00
  Speaker 10: Absolutely.
• 33:00
  Speaker 6: The first thing we have to figure out is whether
• 33:02
  Speaker 6: it happened or not. And then if it happened, whether
• 33:04
  Speaker 6: there is a good explanation or a bad explanation. Of course,
• 33:07
  Speaker 6: if somebody violated the law, if somebody racially profiled, if
• 33:10
  Speaker 6: somebody violated the rights of one of our fellow citizens,
• 33:13
  Speaker 6: that is something we will take very seriously.
• 33:16
  Speaker 3: Nobody is talking.
• 33:16
  Speaker 6: About doing immigration enforcement without a warrant. We're talking about
• 33:20
  Speaker 6: different types of warrants that exist in our system. We're
• 33:22
  Speaker 6: never going to enter somebody's house without some kind of
• 33:25
  Speaker 6: a warrant, unless, of course, somebody's firing on an officer
• 33:29
  Speaker 6: or they have to do something in order.
• 33:30
  Speaker 3: To protect themselves.
• 33:32
  Speaker 6: No, I didn't say, and I don't think any other
• 33:34
  Speaker 6: official within the Trump administration said that officers who engaged
• 33:37
  Speaker 6: in wrongdoing would enjoy immunity.
• 33:39
  Speaker 3: That's absurd.
• 33:39
  Speaker 6: And I'm a father of a five-year-old, actually, a five-year-old
• 33:42
  Speaker 6: little boy. And I think to myself, oh, my God,
• 33:44
  Speaker 6: this is terrible. How did we arrest a five-year-old? Well,
• 33:46
  Speaker 6: I do a little bit more follow-up research. So the
• 33:49
  Speaker 6: story is that ICE detained a five-year-old.
• 33:52
  Speaker 3: Well, what are they supposed to do?
• 33:53
  Speaker 6: Are they supposed to let a five-year-old child freeze to death?
• 33:56
  Speaker 6: Are they not supposed to arrest an illegal alien in
• 34:00
  Speaker 6: the United States of America?
• 34:01
  Speaker 3: If the argument is that you can't.
• 34:03
  Speaker 6: Arrest people who have violated our laws because they have children,
• 34:07
  Speaker 6: then every single parent is gonna be completely given immunity
• 34:11
  Speaker 6: from ever being the subject of law enforcement That doesn't
• 34:14
  Speaker 6: make any sense. No one thinks that makes any sense.
• 34:17
  Speaker 3: I mean, why aren't we congratulating the ICE agents from
• 34:23
  Speaker 3: saving that five-year-old boy from the freezing cold and shipping
• 34:27
  Speaker 3: him to Texas where it's much warmer and he can
• 34:29
  Speaker 3: hang out in a detention facility as opposed to his
• 34:32
  Speaker 3: school or his home in Minnesota? Come on. Are you
• 34:35
  Speaker 3: people crazy? I was so... Someone... So someone clearly... told J.D.
• 34:43
  Speaker 3: Vance after the performance he put on following the shooting
• 34:50
  Speaker 3: of Rene Good in the White House press briefing room
• 34:53
  Speaker 3: that he was a little too hot coming out there
• 34:55
  Speaker 3: and immediately calling her a domestic terrorist and yelling at
• 34:58
  Speaker 3: everyone and acting like a maniac. And so they probably
• 35:01
  Speaker 3: told him, you got to cool it down, take it down,
• 35:03
  Speaker 3: but you can still, you know, lie your ass off.
• 35:06
  Speaker 3: No one's going to check any of your stories. So
• 35:08
  Speaker 3: I guess that's what he did. What did you make
• 35:10
  Speaker 3: of the press conference?
• 35:11
  Speaker 5: I would like to put a blood pressure monitor on
• 35:14
  Speaker 5: myself while I watch J.D. Vance speak because maybe it's
• 35:20
  Speaker 5: because I'm just so numb to Trump after all of
• 35:23
  Speaker 5: these years, but I find J.D. Vance to be more
• 35:26
  Speaker 5: infuriating to watch. Just the smugness, the high school debate
• 35:33
  Speaker 5: champ energy he gets off when he does it, the
• 35:38
  Speaker 5: lack of charisma, the whole thing is just so... infuriating.
• 35:44
  Speaker 5: And I guess what happened here is, I don't think
• 35:49
  Speaker 5: this was necessarily about J.D. Vance feeling, not that he
• 35:54
  Speaker 5: would ever feel bad about anything, because he seems to
• 35:56
  Speaker 5: be largely soulless in a lot of ways, but just
• 36:00
  Speaker 5: feeling political pressure for his performance in the briefing room.
• 36:02
  Speaker 5: I think this is, I can remember if you and
• 36:05
  Speaker 5: I talked about it, you guys talked about it on
• 36:06
  Speaker 5: a Tuesday podcast, but there was that Axios story about
• 36:09
  Speaker 5: how The White House political team had reviewed the race numbers,
• 36:13
  Speaker 5: so they were starting to feel that the chaos was
• 36:18
  Speaker 5: hurting them. They might have to take a different approach.
• 36:20
  Speaker 5: And you could sort of sense when Trump did his
• 36:23
  Speaker 5: one-year press conference before heading to Davos that he tried
• 36:28
  Speaker 5: to like sand the edges down on the rhetoric. I mean,
• 36:32
  Speaker 5: I say try with all the air quotes humanly possible
• 36:34
  Speaker 5: around like a modicum of empathy for what's happened there,
• 36:37
  Speaker 5: for what happened to Rene Good, all of those things.
• 36:40
  Speaker 5: I think J.D. Vance was there to try to lower
• 36:42
  Speaker 5: the temperature, but he just can't. He's infuriating in his presence,
• 36:46
  Speaker 5: and he's so just dishonest about everything. His whole thing
• 36:53
  Speaker 5: is to take something totally unreasonable, totally ridiculous, and then
• 36:57
  Speaker 5: just gaslight it into a place of reasonableness for anyone
• 37:00
  Speaker 5: who does not have the two brain cells required to
• 37:03
  Speaker 5: understand what he's saying is bullshit. Creating the false choice
• 37:08
  Speaker 5: between detaining a five-year-old and shipping him to another state
• 37:12
  Speaker 5: to keep him in a detention center or let him
• 37:15
  Speaker 5: freeze to death. Those were not the two options on
• 37:16
  Speaker 5: the table. This was not like, they did not arrest
• 37:19
  Speaker 5: the father in the tundra, right?
• 37:21
  Speaker 3: Well, this is also, it's just like he, he did
• 37:25
  Speaker 3: not look into the story. What he did, because any
• 37:28
  Speaker 3: of the, any of the media outlets that wrote up
• 37:30
  Speaker 3: the story and I read in the Washington Post, you
• 37:34
  Speaker 3: can read it anywhere else, will have the family in
• 37:37
  Speaker 3: there and the, and the people at the school that
• 37:40
  Speaker 3: run the school and all the witnesses saying that someone
• 37:45
  Speaker 3: in the boy's household was pleading with ICE to let
• 37:48
  Speaker 3: them keep the boy. And instead what ICE did is
• 37:51
  Speaker 3: they used the boy as bait to knock on the
• 37:53
  Speaker 3: door and try to get other family members to come
• 37:56
  Speaker 3: out to detain. And of course they couldn't find any
• 37:58
  Speaker 3: others to detain except for the father. And so there
• 38:01
  Speaker 3: was no reason for ICE to keep the boy with
• 38:04
  Speaker 3: the father when there were other members of the household
• 38:06
  Speaker 3: that could stay with the boy. And now the boy
• 38:09
  Speaker 3: is No one knows where the boy, like the boy's
• 38:11
  Speaker 3: just in a detention facility in San Antonio. And we'll
• 38:15
  Speaker 3: talk about this in a second, but the conditions in
• 38:17
  Speaker 3: these detention centers, particularly the ones in Texas, are fucking horrific.
• 38:20
  Speaker 3: And you can't tell me that they're going to be
• 38:22
  Speaker 3: able to take care of a five-year-old. Imagine how scared
• 38:24
  Speaker 3: he is. Imagine how scared this five-year-old is. And like,
• 38:29
  Speaker 3: do you really think he's with his dad?
• 38:31
  Speaker 5: Of course not.
• 38:31
  Speaker 3: Who's been arrested and is going to be deported? Like this, terrifying,
• 38:35
  Speaker 3: first of all.
• 38:35
  Speaker 5: It's just the lack of humanity from the people conducting
• 38:40
  Speaker 5: the arrest. All of a sudden, you find yourself– you
• 38:43
  Speaker 5: can see a world where you arrest someone. I'm sure
• 38:45
  Speaker 5: this happens outside of immigration for regular law enforcement. You
• 38:47
  Speaker 5: arrest someone and you now have a minor child and
• 38:52
  Speaker 5: it's like, what do you do with them? There are
• 38:55
  Speaker 5: plenty of options before you get to send them to
• 38:58
  Speaker 5: a detention facility, right? And So like this, no one
• 39:01
  Speaker 5: cared enough to try to find a solution or to
• 39:04
  Speaker 5: let him stay with the.
• 39:05
  Speaker 3: I'll say like J.D. 's position. Yeah. The position that
• 39:08
  Speaker 3: everyone who doesn't like this, the position we're all taking
• 39:11
  Speaker 3: is you must not arrest anyone with a child, particularly,
• 39:14
  Speaker 3: especially in front of the child. That's it. The child
• 39:17
  Speaker 3: is now a shield. Everyone can go commit crimes. And
• 39:21
  Speaker 3: what the libs want is no one can be arrested
• 39:23
  Speaker 3: with their child in their presence. That's what people are saying.
• 39:26
  Speaker 5: Everything to its illogical conclusion. Like that is his rhetorical style.
• 39:30
  Speaker 3: Well and then there's just like straight up lying so
• 39:32
  Speaker 3: right before that he said i never said whoever said
• 39:35
  Speaker 3: that there's any there was immunity for officials for ice
• 39:39
  Speaker 3: agents uh so here's jd vance verbatim in the white
• 39:43
  Speaker 3: house briefing room after renee good's murder Quote, the precedent
• 39:48
  Speaker 3: here is very simple. You have a federal law enforcement
• 39:50
  Speaker 3: official engaging in federal law enforcement action. That's a federal issue.
• 39:54
  Speaker 3: That guy is protected by absolute immunity. He was doing
• 39:58
  Speaker 3: his job. The unprecedented thing is the idea that a
• 40:01
  Speaker 3: local official can actually prosecute a federal official with absolute immunity.
• 40:06
  Speaker 3: I've never seen anything like that. It would get tossed
• 40:09
  Speaker 3: out by a judge. So that's that. Then, let's see,
• 40:14
  Speaker 3: the story about the law enforcement official, the off-duty police
• 40:19
  Speaker 3: officer who was harassed and assaulted by ICE agents, he
• 40:23
  Speaker 3: was like, yeah, obviously that would be a concern. And
• 40:25
  Speaker 3: we didn't play that part of the clip. But right
• 40:27
  Speaker 3: after that, he said, we have to figure out if
• 40:28
  Speaker 3: the story's right. Because most of these stories over the
• 40:31
  Speaker 3: last couple of weeks, these viral stories, haven't been right.
• 40:35
  Speaker 3: Which is basically saying that all of the police chiefs
• 40:39
  Speaker 3: in Minnesota and the local law enforcement officials who gave
• 40:41
  Speaker 3: the press conference are fucking liars. Just calling the law
• 40:44
  Speaker 3: enforcement officers liars. And we're not going to get the
• 40:47
  Speaker 3: ICE agent side of that story because those ICE agents,
• 40:49
  Speaker 3: we don't know who they are because they ran away
• 40:51
  Speaker 3: like cowards, probably with their faces masked.
• 40:54
  Speaker 5: And then there's this broader point about the entire press
• 40:57
  Speaker 5: conference because the whole thing that is, I am here
• 41:00
  Speaker 5: today because I think we can lower the chaos if
• 41:03
  Speaker 5: we get more cooperation from state and local officials.
• 41:07
  Speaker 3: Right.
• 41:08
  Speaker 5: That's the problem is they are not cooperating. If they cooperate,
• 41:11
  Speaker 5: then there would be less chaos. We'd go into fewer
• 41:14
  Speaker 5: incorrect homes, et cetera. So the reporter's like, have you
• 41:17
  Speaker 5: called Tim Walz? I don't know if he's the governor
• 41:18
  Speaker 5: of the state. It seems like somebody you'd want to
• 41:20
  Speaker 5: speak to if you wanted additional cooperation from state officials. Like, no,
• 41:22
  Speaker 5: I haven't called him.
• 41:24
  Speaker 3: He can call me. He can call me.
• 41:27
  Speaker 5: Yeah. Oh, and maybe one reason why they may be
• 41:29
  Speaker 5: hesitant to cooperate with you is because you've dispatched your
• 41:31
  Speaker 5: Department of Justice to investigate them for fake crimes.
• 41:36
  Speaker 3: I do think the biggest piece of news in all
• 41:38
  Speaker 3: this is this ICE memo. that the AP reported on that,
• 41:43
  Speaker 3: you know, an internal whistleblower sent it to the Senate
• 41:45
  Speaker 3: and then obviously leaked it to the Associated Press as well.
• 41:48
  Speaker 3: And first of all, J.D. Vance's answer there was, what
• 41:52
  Speaker 3: a fucking, Yale Law School, what a fucking embarrassment.
• 41:56
  Speaker 5: Not great for Yale Law School, no.
• 41:58
  Speaker 3: I mean, Jesus Christ. He's got, like, what was he
• 42:01
  Speaker 3: talking about? He got the whole thing wrong.
• 42:04
  Speaker 5: Well, he, I don't know if he got it wrong.
• 42:07
  Speaker 5: He intentionally said, use words that made it sound more
• 42:11
  Speaker 5: reasonable to avoid getting at the actual crux of the issue,
• 42:14
  Speaker 5: which is who is signing these quote unquote warrants.
• 42:18
  Speaker 3: Who is signing the warrants, but also like we would never,
• 42:21
  Speaker 3: we would never, um, we would never go into a
• 42:24
  Speaker 3: home without a warrant. It's like, well, yeah, you would.
• 42:28
  Speaker 3: In fact, like the, the elderly man who you dragged
• 42:32
  Speaker 3: out of his home in his underwear, who's a U
• 42:35
  Speaker 3: S citizen who you thought was some criminal who that
• 42:39
  Speaker 3: it turns out has been in jail since 2024, which
• 42:43
  Speaker 3: DHS would have known, a case of mistaken identity, they
• 42:47
  Speaker 3: barged his door down. So they did, so they, I
• 42:50
  Speaker 3: don't know if they had, if they had a warrant,
• 42:53
  Speaker 3: it wasn't a judicial warrant. It wasn't signed by a judge.
• 42:56
  Speaker 3: These administrative warrants can be signed by ICE officers.
• 42:59
  Speaker 5: Yeah. I mean, that is the crux here. When he says,
• 43:01
  Speaker 5: when J.D. Vance says warrant, he's not talking about warrant
• 43:04
  Speaker 5: in the way in which we commonly think of it,
• 43:07
  Speaker 5: which is, a prosecutor and the police go to a judge.
• 43:11
  Speaker 5: They present probable cause. The judge then signs a warrant saying, yes,
• 43:16
  Speaker 5: you can go in and find this person, arrest this person,
• 43:21
  Speaker 5: search the premises, whatever, which is how it is laid
• 43:24
  Speaker 5: out in the Constitution. These are your Fourth Amendment rights.
• 43:27
  Speaker 5: These are warrants, essentially arrest warrants, signed by immigration officers
• 43:34
  Speaker 5: to be enforced by other immigration department officers. And so
• 43:39
  Speaker 5: the reason why the courts have generally said that these
• 43:42
  Speaker 5: warrants cannot work is that the courts are supposed to
• 43:45
  Speaker 5: be a check on the executive branch. The executive branch
• 43:47
  Speaker 5: cannot give itself authority to execute executive branch functions, which
• 43:52
  Speaker 5: is really interesting in this memo because the memo says
• 43:56
  Speaker 5: they can do this everywhere other than one district in
• 43:58
  Speaker 5: Central California because there's already been a court decision in
• 44:02
  Speaker 5: Central California in a case called Kidd v. Mayorkas which
• 44:04
  Speaker 5: said you cannot do that there.
• 44:06
  Speaker 3: Also, even these administrative warrants that ICE officers sign do
• 44:12
  Speaker 3: not allow them to go into people's homes.
• 44:15
  Speaker 10: Right.
• 44:15
  Speaker 5: It's just simply saying, we are asserting this person is
• 44:17
  Speaker 5: in this country illegally. You can go pick them up.
• 44:20
  Speaker 5: And they are then trying to take that one step
• 44:21
  Speaker 5: further to say that you can, because we signed that,
• 44:24
  Speaker 5: then that is the equivalent of a judicial warrant to
• 44:26
  Speaker 5: go into someone's home, which it is not. No court
• 44:28
  Speaker 5: has ever said that. And presumably no court ever would.
• 44:32
  Speaker 3: And here's why this is dangerous for every single American.
• 44:35
  Speaker 3: So ICE comes to your home, knock on the door.
• 44:38
  Speaker 3: You're like, ICE is outside. I'm a U.S. citizen. I'm
• 44:40
  Speaker 3: not fucking answering that door. Now ICE raids your home,
• 44:45
  Speaker 3: busts the door down, comes in your home, searches, takes
• 44:48
  Speaker 3: you away. And you're like, well, how can they do that? Well,
• 44:52
  Speaker 3: they have an administrative warrant that they signed themselves that
• 44:56
  Speaker 3: says they thought that an undocumented immigrant who was wanted
• 45:01
  Speaker 3: for a crime happened to be in your home. what's
• 45:04
  Speaker 3: your proof of that? We don't care. We just, we
• 45:07
  Speaker 3: signed our administrative warrant ourself.
• 45:08
  Speaker 5: Yeah. Like the point is it can be your home.
• 45:11
  Speaker 5: Is it the government? Like all the don't tread on
• 45:14
  Speaker 5: me people is the government is just giving itself the
• 45:16
  Speaker 5: power to go in anyone's home whenever it wants for
• 45:19
  Speaker 5: any reason.
• 45:20
  Speaker 3: And again, you might think like, well, that's, I mean,
• 45:23
  Speaker 3: they're doing that now because they're trying to find undocumented immigrants. Well, yeah,
• 45:27
  Speaker 3: but what is going to stop them from doing this
• 45:31
  Speaker 3: to any American that they want to? And then if
• 45:33
  Speaker 3: they do that, What do you do about it? Can
• 45:35
  Speaker 3: you hold the ICE officer accountable? Well, no, because apparently
• 45:39
  Speaker 3: they have immunity as well. Yeah. Do we think the
• 45:42
  Speaker 3: Department of Justice is going to hold them accountable? The
• 45:45
  Speaker 3: Department of Justice that decided ahead of any investigation that
• 45:48
  Speaker 3: Renee Good is a domestic terrorist? I mean, we're just,
• 45:51
  Speaker 3: you know, I don't like to alarm people, but we're
• 45:53
  Speaker 3: in fucking lawless territory here. That's alarming. Just because it's
• 45:58
  Speaker 3: only happening in these cases that we're hearing about in
• 46:00
  Speaker 3: Minnesota doesn't mean it can't expand to the rest of
• 46:03
  Speaker 3: the country. until the fucking Supreme Court gets off his
• 46:06
  Speaker 3: ass and actually rules on this. Which, who knows how
• 46:10
  Speaker 3: long we'll wait for that. Also, I was talking about
• 46:12
  Speaker 3: these conditions in these detention centers in Texas, where the
• 46:16
  Speaker 3: five-year-old is being held. Horrifying. I don't know if you
• 46:20
  Speaker 3: saw the story about the Cuban migrant who died in
• 46:24
  Speaker 3: the El Paso facility, which I have seen from reports
• 46:28
  Speaker 3: is even worse. DHS, liars. had said that he died
• 46:34
  Speaker 3: by suicide. Then the El Paso medical examiner does an
• 46:39
  Speaker 3: autopsy and confirms that it was a homicide, which lines
• 46:43
  Speaker 3: up with what his family heard from witnesses who said
• 46:46
  Speaker 3: that they saw the guards strangle him to death. And
• 46:50
  Speaker 3: then DHS, after those witnesses said that, DHS tried to
• 46:54
  Speaker 3: deport them. The Washington Post also reported that five other people,
• 46:59
  Speaker 3: aside from this Cuban immigrant, have already died in immigration
• 47:03
  Speaker 3: detention the first two weeks of the year, including a
• 47:06
  Speaker 3: 36-year-old man at the same facility who was swept up
• 47:09
  Speaker 3: in the Minnesota raids. We haven't talked about the detention
• 47:12
  Speaker 3: facilities in a while because I think we've rightly been
• 47:15
  Speaker 3: so focused on ice rampaging through the communities. Everyone should
• 47:19
  Speaker 3: check out Runaway Country, Alex Wagner's podcast, because she digs
• 47:23
  Speaker 3: into the detention centers this week. It's a really great episode.
• 47:26
  Speaker 3: But they are It's really, especially the ones in Texas,
• 47:29
  Speaker 3: just fucking like rotten food, rampant disease, very little medical care,
• 47:35
  Speaker 3: very little access to medical care for people. And they're
• 47:38
  Speaker 3: just leaving people there for, you can't get phone calls.
• 47:42
  Speaker 3: You can't, you don't know where you're going. They're just,
• 47:45
  Speaker 3: they're just leaving people there to rot.
• 47:47
  Speaker 5: I mean, at the fundamental belief from the people responsible
• 47:52
  Speaker 5: for these, these policies is that undocumented immigrants are less
• 47:56
  Speaker 5: than human. Which is why their rights don't matter, their
• 47:59
  Speaker 5: dignities don't matter, and their lives don't matter to them.
• 48:01
  Speaker 3: Undocumented. And now, people who are here legally.
• 48:05
  Speaker 5: And frankly, anyone who doesn't look like them.
• 48:07
  Speaker 11: Right.
• 48:08
  Speaker 3: Or anyone who doesn't look like them. Or anyone who... Yeah.
• 48:12
  Speaker 3: That's what happened to Renee Good. Yeah. Right? It is,
• 48:16
  Speaker 3: you don't look like us. You don't think like us.
• 48:19
  Speaker 3: You dare to question us. You dare to try to protest.
• 48:24
  Speaker 3: You dare to try to criticize us. We will fuck
• 48:27
  Speaker 3: with you and we can do whatever we want. That's
• 48:31
  Speaker 3: that is what they're doing. You can call it whatever
• 48:33
  Speaker 3: you want. You can debate the term. You can debate
• 48:36
  Speaker 3: the historical parallels, whatever. This is what's happening. So, you know,
• 48:42
  Speaker 3: the the other part of the administration's counteroffensive is to
• 48:47
  Speaker 3: now to try to distract people with the story of
• 48:50
  Speaker 3: the anti-ice protesters who interrupted a service at a church
• 48:53
  Speaker 3: in St. Paul. where one of the clergy is also
• 48:56
  Speaker 3: the leader of the local ICE field office. So on
• 48:58
  Speaker 3: Thursday morning, all the Trump MAGA media stars, inside and
• 49:03
  Speaker 3: outside of the administration, took to social media to tout
• 49:06
  Speaker 3: three arrests in the case, as if they had just
• 49:09
  Speaker 3: caught bin Laden. Apparently, they also tried to bring charges
• 49:12
  Speaker 3: against independent journalist Don Lemon, who accompanied the protesters into
• 49:18
  Speaker 3: the church and was interviewing them, also by the way,
• 49:20
  Speaker 3: Don was interviewing the church officials, but the judge wouldn't
• 49:24
  Speaker 3: sign off on the warrant to charge Don Lemon. That apparently,
• 49:29
  Speaker 3: according to Politico, enraged Pam Bondi that they couldn't grab
• 49:35
  Speaker 3: Don Lemon, sweep him up in this set of arrests.
• 49:38
  Speaker 3: As they announced the arrest, Kristi Noem called the protest, quote,
• 49:41
  Speaker 3: the St. Paul church riots. And Bondi called it a
• 49:45
  Speaker 3: coordinated attack and wrote in all caps, we do not
• 49:48
  Speaker 3: tolerate attacks on places of worship. Really, they just really
• 49:53
  Speaker 3: wanted to arrest Don Lemon, huh?
• 49:54
  Speaker 5: Well, you know, it's Hamid Dhillon, who's in charge of
• 49:56
  Speaker 5: Civil Rights Division, went on Benny Johnson's podcast and basically
• 49:59
  Speaker 5: promised to arrest Don Lemon. She was kind of goaded
• 50:02
  Speaker 5: into it. And then Benny Johnson, like, sent out the clip,
• 50:05
  Speaker 5: was like, you know, Trump DOJ to charge Don Lemon.
• 50:10
  Speaker 5: And so they had to, as has been true of
• 50:13
  Speaker 5: most of the policymaking of this administration is right wing
• 50:16
  Speaker 5: is Trump administration official says something on a right wing podcast.
• 50:18
  Speaker 5: It then becomes policy. This is how they try to
• 50:20
  Speaker 5: charge Don Lemon.
• 50:22
  Speaker 3: I mean, you can argue that the entire occupation of
• 50:25
  Speaker 3: Minneapolis flows from fucking Nick Shirley's YouTube video where he
• 50:30
  Speaker 3: does this ridiculously fake investigation of Somali run daycare centers
• 50:36
  Speaker 3: in Minnesota and pretending that there was fraud there, even
• 50:39
  Speaker 3: though there's no evidence of that in any of the
• 50:41
  Speaker 3: places that Nick Shirley showed, even though there was, you know,
• 50:44
  Speaker 3: plenty of fraud that had been charged years ago in Minnesota,
• 50:48
  Speaker 3: big fraud cases. I'm sure then the administration was like,
• 50:51
  Speaker 3: oh shit, well, this kid's video is going viral about
• 50:54
  Speaker 3: the fraud. We've already charged the fraud. In fact, the
• 50:57
  Speaker 3: Biden administration charged the fraud. So now we got to
• 50:59
  Speaker 3: come up with new fraud But until then, why don't
• 51:02
  Speaker 3: we just send a bunch of ICE agents to Minneapolis
• 51:04
  Speaker 3: and see what they find? And here we are.
• 51:07
  Speaker 5: This is exactly right. It's a fair question to ask
• 51:10
  Speaker 5: where in all the cities in America where the Trump
• 51:13
  Speaker 5: administration could deploy 3,000 ICE troops, they pick Minneapolis. And
• 51:18
  Speaker 5: it's because of the Somali community in Minneapolis because in
• 51:20
  Speaker 5: the right-wing telling of this story, the focus is entirely
• 51:24
  Speaker 5: on the Somali community. Trump has been almost explicit that Somali,
• 51:30
  Speaker 5: you know, Somali people are less than human. And so they're, they're, they're,
• 51:35
  Speaker 5: it's basically, it is this, it's like a snake eating itself.
• 51:39
  Speaker 5: Sorry with the right wing medium. We're right back there again.
• 51:51
  Speaker 3: Pots of America is brought to you by Smalls.
• 51:53
  Speaker 1: You're killing me, Smalls. January is when we all try
• 51:55
  Speaker 1: to reset. Why shouldn't this include your cat?
• 51:58
  Speaker 5: Hey, cat.
• 51:59
  Speaker 1: What are your New Year's resolutions, cat? It's 2026. Why
• 52:03
  Speaker 1: do you still feed your cat like it's 1926?
• 52:05
  Speaker 3: Yeah, just... Newsies.
• 52:07
  Speaker 5: Oh, yeah. Fish that are like, I don't know about
• 52:10
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  Speaker 2: new furniture, you can easily return it. All of this
• 54:22
  Speaker 2: is weighing heavily in the debate within the Democratic Party
• 54:24
  Speaker 2: about whether to vote to fund DHS as part of
• 54:25
  Speaker 2: the process of avoiding yet another government shutdown. We've talked
• 54:28
  Speaker 2: about this before.
• 54:49
  Speaker 3: The DHS bill did pass the House on Thursday afternoon
• 54:53
  Speaker 3: with all but seven Democrats voting no. But then, of course,
• 54:56
  Speaker 3: the real test is in the Senate where the bill
• 54:58
  Speaker 3: heads now. And it seems like, as of this recording,
• 55:02
  Speaker 3: this time, Democrats, or at least all the Democrats, haven't
• 55:05
  Speaker 3: totally made up their minds. What do you think they
• 55:08
  Speaker 3: should do?
• 55:09
  Speaker 5: I don't know how you can in good conscience vote
• 55:14
  Speaker 5: for additional funding for ICE without real restrictions. And that's
• 55:20
  Speaker 5: not to say, like, we should be very clear that
• 55:24
  Speaker 5: if the Democrats in the Senate were to filibuster this bill,
• 55:28
  Speaker 5: then it was not going to stop what ICE is
• 55:30
  Speaker 5: doing in Minneapolis. They have money in their bank, and
• 55:34
  Speaker 5: they will continue to get money in their bank because,
• 55:35
  Speaker 5: as we said before, and I think perhaps I did
• 55:38
  Speaker 5: not say clearly enough last time, is within the big,
• 55:41
  Speaker 5: beautiful bill, or whatever you want to call it, was
• 55:44
  Speaker 5: a huge plus up in funding. That is mandatory funding.
• 55:47
  Speaker 5: it is immune from the yearly appropriation cycle. So even
• 55:52
  Speaker 5: if the government is shut down, that money comes. Democrats
• 55:56
  Speaker 5: cannot shut the government down. Most of the governments that
• 55:57
  Speaker 5: have been funded. So this would only be DHS. I
• 56:00
  Speaker 5: just don't know how you can do it. We can
• 56:03
  Speaker 5: debate the politics of it, right? And like whether they
• 56:05
  Speaker 5: are good or bad or overstated or understated. But if
• 56:11
  Speaker 5: I was a Senate Democrat, if I was in the House,
• 56:13
  Speaker 5: I certainly would have voted no. if I was in
• 56:15
  Speaker 5: the Senate, I would not vote for cloture on this bill.
• 56:18
  Speaker 5: I would not let the Republicans bring it to the floor.
• 56:22
  Speaker 5: Are there probably enough senators, the same ones who opened
• 56:24
  Speaker 5: the government a couple months ago to do it? That
• 56:28
  Speaker 5: may be the case, but if it was up to me,
• 56:29
  Speaker 5: I would not do it.
• 56:30
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I'd be a definite no. Last time we talked
• 56:34
  Speaker 3: about this, we talked about, okay, say they can't get
• 56:38
  Speaker 3: a DH funding bill done and it's just a continuing resolution, right?
• 56:42
  Speaker 3: So it's just You know, no one wanted to give
• 56:45
  Speaker 3: DHS more money. And so we're just going to keep
• 56:47
  Speaker 3: funding it at current levels. And do you vote yes
• 56:51
  Speaker 3: or no on that, knowing that it does nothing, right?
• 56:54
  Speaker 3: Because you shut the government down. ICE has all their money.
• 56:57
  Speaker 3: They keep going. Chris Murphy, who's going to vote against
• 57:00
  Speaker 3: it in the Senate, you know, he was like, he,
• 57:04
  Speaker 3: you know, had a long tweet thread about this. The
• 57:06
  Speaker 3: DHS budget, it gives them an additional $ 28 billion, this bill.
• 57:13
  Speaker 3: in addition to all the money ICE got in the big,
• 57:16
  Speaker 3: beautiful bill. To me, that makes it a fucking no-brainer.
• 57:20
  Speaker 3: And if you shut the government down, I do think
• 57:23
  Speaker 3: it is important, we should say, you shut the government down,
• 57:25
  Speaker 3: ICE is still going to do what they're doing. It's
• 57:27
  Speaker 3: not going to slow them down, which fucking sucks. And
• 57:31
  Speaker 3: then somebody like the Democrats are shutting the government down.
• 57:33
  Speaker 3: It's a whole thing. And do you win that fight politically?
• 57:35
  Speaker 3: I don't fucking know. But I think it's a pretty
• 57:39
  Speaker 3: clear message that like, yeah, you know why I voted no?
• 57:43
  Speaker 3: I voted no because I don't think ICE, which we're
• 57:46
  Speaker 3: going to talk about the New York Times poll, has
• 57:48
  Speaker 3: a 35% approval rating. I don't think that fucking ICE
• 57:52
  Speaker 3: should get 28, and Christine Ohm should get 28 billion
• 57:56
  Speaker 3: more dollars when everyone's healthcare premiums are going up and
• 58:01
  Speaker 3: costs are up and ICE is rampaging through communities, breaking
• 58:05
  Speaker 3: the law, breaking down doors in violation of the Fourth Amendment,
• 58:08
  Speaker 3: arresting people. Abso-fucking-lutely not.
• 58:11
  Speaker 9: No.
• 58:12
  Speaker 5: A couple, maybe last week or the week before, AOC
• 58:16
  Speaker 5: was walking out of Congress. She was walking down the
• 58:18
  Speaker 5: steps at night and she got asked about what's happening there.
• 58:21
  Speaker 5: And she made the point, which I've not heard any
• 58:23
  Speaker 5: other Democrat make, which is if you want to know
• 58:25
  Speaker 5: why your healthcare costs are going up, why we don't
• 58:27
  Speaker 5: have money to extend the affordable care tax credits or
• 58:31
  Speaker 5: all the other things you want, it's because all the
• 58:32
  Speaker 5: money is going to what's happening in Minneapolis. That's where
• 58:34
  Speaker 5: their priorities are. And I think that that is a
• 58:37
  Speaker 5: powerful message because it is about priorities. Like this is
• 58:40
  Speaker 5: where the focus is. This is what they are doing.
• 58:42
  Speaker 5: They are not helping you. They are doing this. They
• 58:44
  Speaker 5: are creating chaos in service of something that is indecent, cruel,
• 58:50
  Speaker 5: and it's not making America any more secure.
• 58:53
  Speaker 3: They're using your tax dollars to barge down the doors
• 58:57
  Speaker 3: of your fellow Americans and like dragging them out into
• 59:01
  Speaker 3: the street and sending five-year-olds to detention camps? Like what?
• 59:06
  Speaker 3: We're paying for this. These people work for us. ICE
• 59:10
  Speaker 3: works for us. Christine Ohm works for us.
• 59:13
  Speaker 5: Well, theoretically, that's true.
• 59:15
  Speaker 10: Right.
• 59:15
  Speaker 3: But that's why you say like, no, I'm not going
• 59:17
  Speaker 3: to fucking fund that.
• 59:19
  Speaker 5: I mean, just if we're being like as fair to
• 59:23
  Speaker 5: the argument here of what would actually happen is. So
• 59:25
  Speaker 5: here you're, you can vote for it.
• 59:27
  Speaker 10: Right.
• 59:28
  Speaker 5: And it will pass. And most Democrats will certainly vote
• 59:30
  Speaker 5: against it. The overwhelming majority will vote against it. Something
• 59:32
  Speaker 5: like probably 85% of them will vote against it. The
• 59:34
  Speaker 5: question is, are we going to get the right numbers?
• 59:37
  Speaker 5: So in that world where it gets stopped, probably it's
• 59:41
  Speaker 5: pretty easy to come up with a continuing resolution which
• 59:43
  Speaker 5: just says, you want additional money and certainty for the year.
• 59:47
  Speaker 5: We want some guardrails. Chris Murphy listed a bunch. We
• 59:51
  Speaker 5: talked about them last week. masks, warrants, all these other things,
• 59:53
  Speaker 5: really common sense things in the Constitution. We want those
• 59:56
  Speaker 5: in writing. That's the deal. In the interim, why don't
• 59:58
  Speaker 5: we negotiate that? Let's just keep it at the exact
• 1:00:00
  Speaker 5: level it was at last year, continue resolution. Republicans probably
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 5: say no to that because they think the fight over
• 1:00:06
  Speaker 5: a shutdown DHS is good for them. This is actually
• 1:00:09
  Speaker 5: something they did in the run-up to the 2002 midterms
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 5: when the DHS was unable to be formed because of
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 5: a dispute over a collective bargaining agreement for TSA agents
• 1:00:18
  Speaker 5: and other DHS employees. And so you do end up
• 1:00:21
  Speaker 5: in this situation. So those are the outcomes. Strategically, it's
• 1:00:27
  Speaker 5: not simple. You make the right point, which is the
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 5: polling says, it's very clear, and it's particularly in the
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 5: New York Times poll, that Democrats should not be afraid
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 5: of being tough critics on ICE or a fight over ICE.
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 5: We can debate whether that is the best issue to
• 1:00:46
  Speaker 5: be talking about before the midterms, but it's not a
• 1:00:48
  Speaker 5: bad issue.
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 10: Yeah.
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 3: And I, look, I, you know, the government funding debate
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 3: and the shutdown stuff, it drives me a little crazy
• 1:00:58
  Speaker 3: because it, part of what I think our side sometimes
• 1:01:02
  Speaker 3: believes is that we have leverage and we don't have
• 1:01:04
  Speaker 3: leverage because Republicans aren't going to change their behavior. And
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 3: they have proven that. They have proven that, like, this
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 3: is the most important priority for them and they're going
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 3: to find the money anywhere to keep doing it. So
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 3: I don't think, you know, I think some of us
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 3: even went into the, healthcare shutdown thinking like, oh, maybe
• 1:01:22
  Speaker 3: they'll change their mind and pass an extension of Obamacare subsidies.
• 1:01:25
  Speaker 3: They did not. I don't think they would have if
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 3: we kept the government shutdown. They're not now. They just
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 3: don't want to do it. Certainly on, at least they
• 1:01:32
  Speaker 3: were considering it on ACA, at least in the last
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 3: couple of weeks post shutdown, they would never back off
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 3: on this.
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 10: Never.
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 3: But the question is like, you know, I, this is
• 1:01:42
  Speaker 3: a bigger issue now, but if we now have paramilitary
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 3: squads rampaging through the country, And they're in Minneapolis now.
• 1:01:51
  Speaker 3: They've been in other cities. It's not getting better. It's
• 1:01:53
  Speaker 3: getting worse. It's not slowing down. It's speeding up. They're
• 1:01:56
  Speaker 3: going to spend more of the money. They're going to
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 3: hire more of these people. The people that they keep
• 1:02:00
  Speaker 3: hiring are going to be worse, less qualified, crazier. They're
• 1:02:03
  Speaker 3: giving them guns. They don't need warrants now is what
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 3: they tell us. They can arrest whoever they want. They're
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 3: shooting people without any kind of accountability whatsoever. They're going
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 3: to be doing that. Then maybe you send a message.
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 3: You say this is what we're, like, the people of Minnesota,
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 3: they are staging a, or a lot of people in Minnesota,
• 1:02:25
  Speaker 3: they're organizing a statewide pause in daily economic activity. So basically, like,
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 3: they're trying to do, like, a strike, one-day strike in Minnesota.
• 1:02:34
  Speaker 3: They're not going to go to school. They're not going
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 3: to work. At least a whole bunch of people are
• 1:02:37
  Speaker 3: trying to do this. And, you know, and by the way,
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 3: you can check out on Vote Safe America if you
• 1:02:41
  Speaker 3: want to, if you stand in solidarity with people in Minnesota,
• 1:02:44
  Speaker 3: you can find a nonviolent event, protest event near you.
• 1:02:47
  Speaker 3: You can call on Congress to rein in ICE. You
• 1:02:50
  Speaker 3: can demand different corporations stand up to ICE, maybe have
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 3: contracts with them. I do wonder if, and this is,
• 1:02:57
  Speaker 3: it's politics, but it's a bit outside just, you know,
• 1:03:00
  Speaker 3: electoral politics and congressional politics inside DC, that it's time
• 1:03:05
  Speaker 3: to sort of organize a much more nationwide response to
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 3: what ICE is doing. That is because it's, the midterms
• 1:03:13
  Speaker 3: are nine months away. And, you know, we have three
• 1:03:16
  Speaker 3: more years of the Trump administration. And at some point,
• 1:03:21
  Speaker 3: when do you decide that, like, you know, we got
• 1:03:24
  Speaker 3: to step up and get out to the streets and
• 1:03:26
  Speaker 3: defend our neighbors here because they could be coming for
• 1:03:28
  Speaker 3: any of us. So it's sort of like what I
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 3: thought originally about the first shutdown, but it would be
• 1:03:34
  Speaker 3: more that than than some kind of strategy to assume
• 1:03:37
  Speaker 3: that that our leverage would be used to kind of
• 1:03:39
  Speaker 3: get the administration to get ICE out. to back down
• 1:03:42
  Speaker 3: just by virtue of a little bit of shutdown.
• 1:03:45
  Speaker 5: You're using as an intentional moment is what you're doing.
• 1:03:47
  Speaker 5: It's that, but because we should be, you made this point.
• 1:03:49
  Speaker 5: I want to say it again. There is almost no
• 1:03:52
  Speaker 5: chance that they are going to agree to take the
• 1:03:54
  Speaker 5: masks off because we shut down the agency because they
• 1:03:56
  Speaker 5: don't need the money in the short term.
• 1:03:59
  Speaker 3: Yeah. But it's time to maybe, you know, organize nationwide
• 1:04:03
  Speaker 3: against ice here. So, um, The other big focus on
• 1:04:06
  Speaker 3: Capitol Hill Thursday was former special counsel Jack Smith's appearance
• 1:04:10
  Speaker 3: in front of the House Judiciary Committee as part of
• 1:04:11
  Speaker 3: their investigation into Smith's old investigations of Donald Trump, both
• 1:04:15
  Speaker 3: the criminal charges brought against the president related to January
• 1:04:18
  Speaker 3: 6th and the criminal charges he faced over hiding classified
• 1:04:21
  Speaker 3: documents at Mar-a-Lago and refusing to give them back. Smith
• 1:04:25
  Speaker 3: had already agreed to a deposition for the committee, but
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 3: asked for an open hearing as well so that the
• 1:04:31
  Speaker 3: country could hear him defend his actions. Here's some of
• 1:04:34
  Speaker 3: what it sounded like.
• 1:04:35
  Speaker 10: President Trump was charged because the evidence established that he
• 1:04:39
  Speaker 10: willfully broke the law. Rather than accept his defeat in
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 10: the 2020 election, President Trump engaged in a criminal scheme
• 1:04:46
  Speaker 10: to overturn the results and prevent the lawful transfer of power.
• 1:04:50
  Speaker 10: Our investigation developed proof beyond a reasonable doubt that President
• 1:04:54
  Speaker 10: Trump engaged in criminal activity.
• 1:04:56
  Speaker 3: This is all a show. And Mr. Smith, you're just
• 1:04:59
  Speaker 3: the latest act that they've brought in.
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 10: The fault does not lie with Donald Trump. It lies
• 1:05:06
  Speaker 10: with Yogananda Pittman and the U.S.
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 5: Capitol leadership team.
• 1:05:10
  Speaker 10: We know, we know they had the intelligence.
• 1:05:18
  Speaker 3: That was Michael Fanone off one of the Capitol police
• 1:05:21
  Speaker 3: officers saying, go fuck yourself. Good for him. What is this?
• 1:05:27
  Speaker 3: We were like, Jack Smith's testifying? What's happening? How much
• 1:05:31
  Speaker 3: does this matter? It's just, this is going to go
• 1:05:33
  Speaker 3: I guess they're trying to investigate Jack Smith, at least
• 1:05:35
  Speaker 3: the Congresses. Donald Trump was like, responded by being like,
• 1:05:39
  Speaker 3: you know, Pam Bondi should do something, of course.
• 1:05:42
  Speaker 5: So this is a product of the effort to investigate
• 1:05:46
  Speaker 5: the weaponization of government by the alleged weaponization of government
• 1:05:50
  Speaker 5: by the Biden administration. They're looking at all sorts of things.
• 1:05:54
  Speaker 5: I had the mispleasure of, I think that's a word,
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 5: of listening to Jim Jordan's opening remarks this morning. um
• 1:06:03
  Speaker 5: very early in the morning and it's insanity it's like
• 1:06:08
  Speaker 5: he talked about the steel dossier funny willis and nathan
• 1:06:12
  Speaker 5: way like it's all over the map it's insane it
• 1:06:14
  Speaker 5: is like you have to be so embedded in right-wing
• 1:06:16
  Speaker 5: conspiracy theories you know what's happening here it is just
• 1:06:20
  Speaker 5: so like i guess it's funny that they're having this
• 1:06:26
  Speaker 5: here about the position of government at the same time
• 1:06:27
  Speaker 5: that In Trump's list of accomplishment a day for his
• 1:06:31
  Speaker 5: first term, he includes weaponizing government in there and holding
• 1:06:34
  Speaker 5: his political opponents accountable. They're doing it every single day
• 1:06:37
  Speaker 5: and without any self-awareness, they're holding these hearings. All the
• 1:06:41
  Speaker 5: other hearings and depositions have been taken privately. Jack Smith
• 1:06:45
  Speaker 5: demanded his be done in public because all the people
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 5: who worked for him have been fired from their jobs,
• 1:06:50
  Speaker 5: the career prosecutors, FBI agents. So he wants to defend
• 1:06:53
  Speaker 5: their work and have a moment. Watching it is just
• 1:06:58
  Speaker 5: so surreal because it just, it takes you back.
• 1:07:02
  Speaker 3: To- It's a rerun from a few seasons ago.
• 1:07:04
  Speaker 5: It is, but just, it takes you back to sitting
• 1:07:06
  Speaker 5: in our homes during the pandemic on January 6th, just
• 1:07:10
  Speaker 5: watching that horror scene take place. Takes you back to
• 1:07:13
  Speaker 5: a couple of years later when the January 6th committee
• 1:07:17
  Speaker 5: hearings happened and all that incredibly compelling evidence and testimony
• 1:07:20
  Speaker 5: and videos were released. And you were brought back to
• 1:07:23
  Speaker 5: that day. These things, it felt like, moments that would
• 1:07:27
  Speaker 5: forever change American politics, or at least the trajectory of
• 1:07:29
  Speaker 5: Donald Trump's life, how we felt when, and the reaction
• 1:07:34
  Speaker 5: when Donald Trump was charged by, in the classified documents case,
• 1:07:38
  Speaker 5: which isn't even brought up here, which is like the
• 1:07:40
  Speaker 5: most obvious crime he committed, when he was charged in
• 1:07:43
  Speaker 5: the January 6th case. And it's just this, it's all
• 1:07:47
  Speaker 5: been just sort of whitewashed from, not from history, because
• 1:07:53
  Speaker 5: I think it'll be in the history books, but from
• 1:07:54
  Speaker 5: the political conversation we've just Because Trump won re-election after
• 1:07:58
  Speaker 5: having done all these things, being indicted, having fomented the
• 1:08:01
  Speaker 5: riot itself, and the Republicans have all decided that it's
• 1:08:05
  Speaker 5: cool if someone sends a mob to murder you as
• 1:08:07
  Speaker 5: long as that person's within your party. It's just been
• 1:08:12
  Speaker 5: all pushed to the side as if it doesn't matter anymore.
• 1:08:14
  Speaker 5: It's surreal but nice or important maybe to hear talk
• 1:08:22
  Speaker 5: about that again, to be reminded that this was this
• 1:08:24
  Speaker 5: giant fucking deal. that was this incredibly dark moment in
• 1:08:27
  Speaker 5: history and that even if we're not caring about it now,
• 1:08:30
  Speaker 5: like over the course of time, if we are lucky
• 1:08:32
  Speaker 5: enough to make it into the future, that it will
• 1:08:34
  Speaker 5: be remembered for what it is, which is this very
• 1:08:37
  Speaker 5: deeply dangerous, horrific thing that Donald Trump did.
• 1:08:41
  Speaker 3: I saw that Hank Johnson, Democrat on the committee, asked
• 1:08:43
  Speaker 3: at one point, since the charges were dismissed without prejudice
• 1:08:49
  Speaker 3: after Trump won, I guess, Smith, could he be charged again?
• 1:08:56
  Speaker 3: after he leaves office. And Smith didn't really take the bait,
• 1:08:58
  Speaker 3: but did say that they were. dismissed without prejudice which
• 1:09:01
  Speaker 3: means yes they can be charged again.
• 1:09:03
  Speaker 5: Yeah i mean the problem in this is the president
• 1:09:04
  Speaker 5: is the immunity ruling that's.
• 1:09:06
  Speaker 3: Right but i mean it's like although well let me
• 1:09:09
  Speaker 3: imagine remember the immunity ruling sort of lopped off a
• 1:09:13
  Speaker 3: big part of the indictment but some of it still
• 1:09:16
  Speaker 3: remained like we if before Trump won, we still thought
• 1:09:19
  Speaker 3: there was going to, remember, there was still going to
• 1:09:20
  Speaker 3: be a, there's still going to be a case.
• 1:09:22
  Speaker 5: And the Fulton County case could be brought back because
• 1:09:24
  Speaker 5: that is a local case and not relevant to this.
• 1:09:26
  Speaker 3: My thing is like, you know, good for Jack Smith.
• 1:09:28
  Speaker 3: It was, there was, there's things he couldn't talk about
• 1:09:31
  Speaker 3: based on sort of evidence. Like what I'm interested in
• 1:09:34
  Speaker 3: someday is, you know, evidence that Jack Smith had that
• 1:09:38
  Speaker 3: he was going to bring it to trial that we
• 1:09:40
  Speaker 3: haven't heard yet. And, you know, same in the, in
• 1:09:42
  Speaker 3: the documents case, if Eileen Cannon ever I mean, she won't,
• 1:09:46
  Speaker 3: but if anyone can ever get that evidence, that would
• 1:09:49
  Speaker 3: interest me.
• 1:09:50
  Speaker 5: I think the Justice Department, that's one thing. It won't
• 1:09:52
  Speaker 5: be the most important thing, but I hope that this
• 1:09:55
  Speaker 5: is what, imagine this. Democratic president wins. Our attorney general
• 1:10:00
  Speaker 5: goes out, promises full disclosure of the Jack Smith files,
• 1:10:04
  Speaker 5: brings in a bunch of content creators, influencers.
• 1:10:06
  Speaker 3: Not us, because we wouldn't get invited.
• 1:10:09
  Speaker 5: You don't know who the president's going to be. We
• 1:10:11
  Speaker 5: might get invited. We might get invited this time. We
• 1:10:14
  Speaker 5: get handed a binder and it's filled with all this stuff.
• 1:10:17
  Speaker 5: It can happen.
• 1:10:19
  Speaker 3: It'll be Brian.
• 1:10:22
  Speaker 5: You might not be invited.
• 1:10:23
  Speaker 3: Yeah, no, I won't be invited.
• 1:10:25
  Speaker 5: I might be invited.
• 1:10:25
  Speaker 3: Yeah, you might get invited. Definitely not love it. Maybe
• 1:10:29
  Speaker 3: you and Tommy.
• 1:10:40
  Speaker 1: This episode is sponsored by BetterHelp. The new year doesn't
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  Speaker 3: All right, let's get to some good news. A New
• 1:12:01
  Speaker 3: York Times Sienna poll dropped on Thursday morning. That's it.
• 1:12:04
  Speaker 3: That's the good news. For me and you, it doesn't
• 1:12:08
  Speaker 3: matter what's in it. It's just exciting. I have to
• 1:12:10
  Speaker 3: say I've been... I'm having trouble sleeping this week and
• 1:12:15
  Speaker 3: I had a late meeting last night and I didn't
• 1:12:17
  Speaker 3: get home till late. And I, so I slept till
• 1:12:19
  Speaker 3: I saw the clock and it was four 15 AM
• 1:12:22
  Speaker 3: for the first time. And that to me was a win.
• 1:12:25
  Speaker 3: It wasn't, it wasn't 2 AM or 3 AM. And
• 1:12:27
  Speaker 3: then I like grabbed my phone and I looked and
• 1:12:30
  Speaker 3: I fucking saw the New York times news alert on
• 1:12:33
  Speaker 3: my phone, which is the only news alert I get
• 1:12:35
  Speaker 3: from the times. And it said like time Sienna pole.
• 1:12:38
  Speaker 3: And I was like, Oh boy. Oh, we got a
• 1:12:40
  Speaker 3: time Sienna pole. And so I, of course, texted it
• 1:12:44
  Speaker 3: to the group. And you know what.
• 1:12:46
  Speaker 5: The sad thing is? When you texted it, I was
• 1:12:49
  Speaker 5: already reading it. Because I also woke up at four
• 1:12:51
  Speaker 5: this morning.
• 1:12:52
  Speaker 3: Then I opened our office Slack, and right before, you
• 1:12:55
  Speaker 3: had already sent it to the office Slack. And all
• 1:12:58
  Speaker 3: of our East Coast employees, like Reed, were like, how
• 1:13:00
  Speaker 3: did you send that before me? It's four in the morning.
• 1:13:02
  Speaker 5: You got to wake up earlier, Reed. I have to
• 1:13:04
  Speaker 5: tell you that all the time. I've been telling you
• 1:13:05
  Speaker 5: that for 20 years.
• 1:13:07
  Speaker 3: Okay, here are the top lines, and then we can
• 1:13:08
  Speaker 3: dig into the details. Trump's approval rating is 40%, with
• 1:13:12
  Speaker 3: 56% disapproving. 64% of voters don't like how he's handling
• 1:13:17
  Speaker 3: the cost of living. 58% don't like how he's handling
• 1:13:20
  Speaker 3: the economy. 58%, same number, don't like how he's handling immigration.
• 1:13:27
  Speaker 3: 39% don't like how he's handling our relationships with other countries. So,
• 1:13:30
  Speaker 3: other countries, rest of the world... You know, only 39%
• 1:13:34
  Speaker 3: of us think that all that's going well. So just
• 1:13:36
  Speaker 3: so you all know. And only 32% of voters think
• 1:13:40
  Speaker 3: the country is better off than when Trump took office
• 1:13:43
  Speaker 3: a year ago. 42% of voters say he's on track
• 1:13:46
  Speaker 3: to be one of the worst presidents in history. Only
• 1:13:48
  Speaker 3: 19% say he'll be one of the best. And that
• 1:13:51
  Speaker 3: includes only 45% of Republicans, which is interesting. Meanwhile, in
• 1:13:55
  Speaker 3: the 2026 midterms, voters would favor a Democratic candidate over
• 1:13:58
  Speaker 3: a Republican by five points, 48% to 43%. Trump himself
• 1:14:03
  Speaker 3: is not only aware of this poll, he has announced
• 1:14:06
  Speaker 3: that he'll be adding it to his lawsuit against the
• 1:14:08
  Speaker 3: New York Times and will demand to learn how the Times, quote,
• 1:14:12
  Speaker 3: computed these fake results. Must preserve all records, Nate Cohn.
• 1:14:17
  Speaker 3: He then added two more posts saying that fake polls
• 1:14:20
  Speaker 3: are out of control and, quote, dangerous and that publishing
• 1:14:23
  Speaker 3: polling he doesn't like should be a crime. Are you
• 1:14:27
  Speaker 3: worried that he might come for a polar coaster with
• 1:14:29
  Speaker 3: Dan Pfeiffer? Or the message box, perhaps?
• 1:14:32
  Speaker 5: Maybe the message box. I can see that. Polar Coaster,
• 1:14:34
  Speaker 5: he wouldn't dare touch Caroline Rustin, so it's fine.
• 1:14:37
  Speaker 3: He's not behind the paywall anyway.
• 1:14:38
  Speaker 5: Yes, we hope not.
• 1:14:40
  Speaker 3: God, we hope not. But you should be if you
• 1:14:41
  Speaker 3: want to listen to Polar Coaster. The one pod that
• 1:14:45
  Speaker 3: Trump doesn't want you to hear, Polar Coaster.
• 1:14:49
  Speaker 5: He's too scared to sue, Polar Coaster.
• 1:14:50
  Speaker 3: Support independent progressive media. Sign up to be a friend
• 1:14:52
  Speaker 3: of the pod. Cricket.com slash friends. How's that for an
• 1:14:55
  Speaker 3: organic push?
• 1:14:56
  Speaker 5: Elijah is just, he's swelling with pride right now.
• 1:15:00
  Speaker 3: Okay, what are your thoughts on the poll? I have
• 1:15:02
  Speaker 3: not had time to read your message box yet on
• 1:15:04
  Speaker 3: the poll, so this is just fresh for me.
• 1:15:06
  Speaker 5: Let me give you the most important top line from this,
• 1:15:10
  Speaker 5: which is Donald Trump's 2024 winning coalition that included, obviously,
• 1:15:17
  Speaker 5: his MAGA base and core Republican voters, but also Latinos,
• 1:15:21
  Speaker 5: working class men of color, and young voters, particularly young men,
• 1:15:25
  Speaker 5: has collapsed. And his coalition right now in this poll
• 1:15:29
  Speaker 5: looks almost exactly like his coalition in 2020 when he
• 1:15:33
  Speaker 5: lost the election. All the people that he– like what
• 1:15:36
  Speaker 5: it looks like right now. And this is one poll.
• 1:15:38
  Speaker 5: It's the best poll, but it is one poll. But
• 1:15:41
  Speaker 5: it's also– it is consistent with the narrative of all
• 1:15:44
  Speaker 5: the other polls we've seen over the last year. If
• 1:15:47
  Speaker 5: the 2024 election was not a realignment, it was more
• 1:15:51
  Speaker 5: likely to be an aberration born of the lethal combination
• 1:15:55
  Speaker 5: of inflation plus– Joe Biden's age. Those two things led
• 1:16:00
  Speaker 5: us there. So what that means for the midterms, which
• 1:16:03
  Speaker 5: is really interesting, is now the lesser engaged voters who
• 1:16:09
  Speaker 5: are targets for Democrats again. The way this poll looks
• 1:16:14
  Speaker 5: is higher turnout would benefit Democrats. We are actually winning
• 1:16:18
  Speaker 5: people on the generic ballot. We are crushing the generic
• 1:16:22
  Speaker 5: ballot with Latinos, younger voters, non-college, non-white voters, Independent voters.
• 1:16:29
  Speaker 5: Among people who did not vote in 2024, Democrats are
• 1:16:34
  Speaker 5: up by 15 points on the generic vote.
• 1:16:38
  Speaker 3: Wow.
• 1:16:39
  Speaker 5: And the second part of this is, you read this,
• 1:16:43
  Speaker 5: Trump is underwater on every single issue except border security,
• 1:16:46
  Speaker 5: where he has a net approval of three, I think.
• 1:16:48
  Speaker 5: Just hugely underwater everything. Economy, immigration, you went through all
• 1:16:51
  Speaker 5: these things. But, and I think they all add up,
• 1:16:55
  Speaker 5: you know, ICE, Greenland, all these things add up to
• 1:16:56
  Speaker 5: this level of sort of chaos and dysfunction and distraction
• 1:17:00
  Speaker 5: that is driving Trump down. But the poll is pretty
• 1:17:05
  Speaker 5: clear that the economy is the main reason that his
• 1:17:07
  Speaker 5: coalition has collapsed. The voters who have left Trump are
• 1:17:12
  Speaker 5: twice as likely to cite an economic issue as their
• 1:17:14
  Speaker 5: top issue as the rest of the electorate. And so
• 1:17:17
  Speaker 5: it's like, this is part of the explanation for 2024.
• 1:17:20
  Speaker 5: We had a bunch of people who did not love Trump.
• 1:17:22
  Speaker 5: They were very skeptical of him. They were very cost-conscious.
• 1:17:25
  Speaker 5: They were economically prioritized voters. They were willing to take
• 1:17:28
  Speaker 5: a risk on him. He has now not only failed
• 1:17:30
  Speaker 5: to lower the prices, he has raised their prices, and
• 1:17:32
  Speaker 5: they've started to look elsewhere. Now, the challenge for Democrats
• 1:17:36
  Speaker 5: here is this is not redounded to the Democratic Party's benefit.
• 1:17:41
  Speaker 5: This poll actually is more Republican than you would expect.
• 1:17:44
  Speaker 5: Republicans still have a registration advantage, so we have a
• 1:17:47
  Speaker 5: lot of work to do. What do you.
• 1:17:49
  Speaker 3: Think that's all about? Because that was my one, I have,
• 1:17:53
  Speaker 3: I had one other point that I liked, and this
• 1:17:55
  Speaker 3: is from Nate Cohn's analysis of it. One other point
• 1:17:57
  Speaker 3: I liked and one other point that it was like,
• 1:17:59
  Speaker 3: which is, yeah, as you said, party identification, self-identified Democrats
• 1:18:03
  Speaker 3: had outnumbered Republicans for decades before Republicans edged ahead in 2024.
• 1:18:08
  Speaker 3: And now Republicans continue to lead by three points in
• 1:18:11
  Speaker 3: today's poll about, for party registration. I think that- So
• 1:18:15
  Speaker 3: is that like, they're pissed about Trump, but they're like,
• 1:18:17
  Speaker 3: maybe we still want to be Republicans, but we just want.
• 1:18:19
  Speaker 4: To be Republicans?
• 1:18:19
  Speaker 5: No, I think it's, two things. One, we know from
• 1:18:24
  Speaker 5: 2025 registration data that Republicans are still continuing to out-register Democrats,
• 1:18:28
  Speaker 5: a trend which is the exact opposite of how it's
• 1:18:31
  Speaker 5: been for many years up until the Biden years began.
• 1:18:34
  Speaker 5: But the other thing is that these younger voters, these
• 1:18:37
  Speaker 5: particularly 18, 29-year-olds, are much more likely to register as independents.
• 1:18:41
  Speaker 5: And so the independent pool is bigger but looking more
• 1:18:45
  Speaker 5: Democratic right now than it did in 2024, which allows
• 1:18:49
  Speaker 5: Republicans to have a registration advantage yet still trail.
• 1:18:52
  Speaker 3: That makes sense. Because for a while, the independent pool, yeah.
• 1:18:56
  Speaker 3: So in 2024, the independent pool was looking a little
• 1:18:58
  Speaker 3: more right-leaning.
• 1:18:59
  Speaker 5: Yes. And this often happens after, this is why when
• 1:19:04
  Speaker 5: you win a first term, you almost always win independents.
• 1:19:07
  Speaker 5: And even when you win re-election, you lose independence. And
• 1:19:09
  Speaker 5: it's because who makes up an independent shifts. So a
• 1:19:13
  Speaker 5: bunch of people who were independents who were like huge
• 1:19:15
  Speaker 5: Obama supporters in 2008 just became Democrats the next time around.
• 1:19:20
  Speaker 5: And so the independent pool moved a little more, right?
• 1:19:23
  Speaker 5: It was not surprising. There was like the natural sort
• 1:19:27
  Speaker 5: of shift within the pool that happens after election. And
• 1:19:30
  Speaker 5: then there was the true trend that Gen Z voters
• 1:19:33
  Speaker 5: are much less likely to register with a party than
• 1:19:36
  Speaker 5: previous generations have been.
• 1:19:38
  Speaker 3: One other point, and then we can stop on your
• 1:19:41
  Speaker 3: point on the economy. And Cohn says, Cohn, who's I'm
• 1:19:45
  Speaker 3: sure awaiting a subpoena or a knock on the door,
• 1:19:49
  Speaker 3: lawsuit at least. So about half of the defectors from Trump,
• 1:19:54
  Speaker 3: so people who voted for Trump in 2024, and then
• 1:19:56
  Speaker 3: in this poll said, yeah, I voted for Trump in 24,
• 1:19:58
  Speaker 3: now I'm going to vote for a Democrat. Half of
• 1:20:00
  Speaker 3: them cited the economy as the reason, but the other
• 1:20:03
  Speaker 3: half cited democracy, Mr. Trump himself, Immigration, other things, which
• 1:20:11
  Speaker 3: I think it sort of argues for the point that
• 1:20:14
  Speaker 3: I haven't really articulated well, which is like economy is
• 1:20:17
  Speaker 3: the number one issue, cost of living for sure. But
• 1:20:20
  Speaker 3: it's not economy, cost of living at the expense of
• 1:20:22
  Speaker 3: everything else. It should be prioritized over other things. But
• 1:20:26
  Speaker 3: the people who go. so extreme and say like, oh,
• 1:20:29
  Speaker 3: it's just the economy, you can't talk about anything else.
• 1:20:32
  Speaker 3: That is clearly not right because some of the defections
• 1:20:35
  Speaker 3: from Trump are coming, at least half the defections from
• 1:20:37
  Speaker 3: Trump are coming from other issues.
• 1:20:38
  Speaker 5: Well, even if it's right, it's impossible. It's just not
• 1:20:42
  Speaker 5: a practical solution. You can decide all of our ads
• 1:20:45
  Speaker 5: should be on the economy. You can make that decision.
• 1:20:48
  Speaker 5: I probably wouldn't recommend it, but you could do that.
• 1:20:50
  Speaker 5: I mean, that's what Zoran did. you, I don't, it's,
• 1:20:54
  Speaker 5: you can't run it. You can't, as a party, you
• 1:20:56
  Speaker 5: cannot exist in a world in which you don't talk
• 1:20:58
  Speaker 5: about all the other things that are happening. You only do,
• 1:21:01
  Speaker 5: you only wait until there's an affordability moment.
• 1:21:03
  Speaker 3: Uh, right, right, right. Um, all right, well, that's our
• 1:21:06
  Speaker 3: show for today. And, uh, just a reminder, still tickets
• 1:21:09
  Speaker 3: left for our, um, Australia and New Zealand shows, but
• 1:21:12
  Speaker 3: they are, uh, they're selling out fast, Dan.
• 1:21:14
  Speaker 5: Very fast.
• 1:21:15
  Speaker 3: Um, it's the, uh, it's the hopefully just visiting tour.
• 1:21:18
  Speaker 3: Who knows if it'll still be a joke. Uh, But again,
• 1:21:23
  Speaker 3: we're in Auckland, New Zealand on February 11th, and then
• 1:21:25
  Speaker 3: we're in Melbourne and Australia on February 13th, Brisbane on
• 1:21:28
  Speaker 3: the 14th, and Sydney on the 16th. Getting some good guests.
• 1:21:32
  Speaker 3: We'd love to see you there. Head to crooked.com slash
• 1:21:34
  Speaker 3: events and you can get your tickets before they're gone.
• 1:21:37
  Speaker 3: That's our show for today. Dan's going to be back
• 1:21:39
  Speaker 3: on Sunday with a conversation with our old friend, David Plouffe.
• 1:21:44
  Speaker 3: I mean, you know I'm going to tune in.
• 1:21:45
  Speaker 5: It's an audience of one here.
• 1:21:47
  Speaker 3: It's just me. For sure. Maybe we can just call you.
• 1:21:50
  Speaker 5: I want to talk to Plouffe.
• 1:21:51
  Speaker 11: Yeah.
• 1:21:52
  Speaker 3: And so everyone check that out, and then we'll be
• 1:21:54
  Speaker 3: back with a new episode for all of you on Tuesday.
• 1:21:57
  Speaker 3: Tune in.
• 1:21:58
  Speaker 5: Bye, everyone.
• 1:22:01
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• 1:22:03
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• 1:22:19
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• 1:22:26
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