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Iran's Ceasefire Trap: Why Trump Is Trapped | Silk and Steel · UK Column Radio

0:01
Speaker 1: Hello, and welcome to another episode of the Silk and
0:04
Speaker 1: Steel Podcast. I'm your host, Carl Zat. Today I have
0:09
Speaker 1: back on my show, doctor Warwick Powell, all the way
0:12
Speaker 1: from a high speed train. Uh, where are you at, Warwick?
0:17
Speaker 1: I know you're somewhere in China, but I'm not sure
0:20
Speaker 1: where where are you in China? I just know you're
0:23
Speaker 1: you're sitting a train right now.
0:25
Speaker 2: I am on the Flass train leaving Beijing West Station,
0:30
Speaker 2: heading to where I will go and enjoy the p
0:35
Speaker 2: Andy Festival in More Youang, and check out some historical
0:40
Speaker 2: science and just take a few days off. So yeah,
0:45
Speaker 2: so here I am class trained, modern technology and connecting
0:51
Speaker 2: with you and with the rest of the world.
0:54
Speaker 3: Good fun.
0:56
Speaker 1: And uh, you know what the the while you are
0:59
Speaker 1: having fun traveling in China, the world has changed quite
1:04
Speaker 1: drastically in the last few weeks.
1:07
Speaker 3: You know.
1:07
Speaker 1: Last time I spoke to you was eighteenth of March.
1:11
Speaker 1: You know, I was expressing to you my concern that
1:16
Speaker 1: the war my dragon for two additional weeks, just you know,
1:20
Speaker 1: because at that time, the US Marine Expeditionary Unit was
1:24
Speaker 1: hitting up the from South China Sea into the Indian Ocean,
1:29
Speaker 1: and I was expressing my concern that that that means
1:32
Speaker 1: the White House expect the war will go on for
1:35
Speaker 1: at least another two weeks. Well, now it's a month
1:38
Speaker 1: later and things have really escalated. You know, we have Trump,
1:47
Speaker 1: we have Trump threatening to wipe out an entire civilization,
1:51
Speaker 1: you know, threatening genocide in a in a social social post.
1:57
Speaker 1: We now finally have the House Democrats and some congress
2:02
Speaker 1: people are joined in to talk about impeaching Trump, and
2:07
Speaker 1: that at the last hour of Trump's forty eight hour ultimatum,
2:13
Speaker 1: like many of his other ultimatums, Trump finally said he
2:19
Speaker 1: is he took he has received a ten point ceasefire
2:24
Speaker 1: demands from Iran, and he thinks, now we're at a
2:28
Speaker 1: point we can negotiate for a ceasefire and to allow
2:32
Speaker 1: the Strata horr Mooves to open. Of course, that whole
2:35
Speaker 1: thing lasted barely two hours. Now the strait of Horr
2:39
Speaker 1: Moose is closed again because Israel said you will not
2:42
Speaker 1: abide by the sea fire agreement and continued to pummelo
2:47
Speaker 1: Southern Lebanon SOS. So now it's back to the closure
2:51
Speaker 1: of the hormones straight. This is the thing I was
2:54
Speaker 1: really worry about because the world needs field needs hydro
2:59
Speaker 1: harbin these firsts and I like to take your brain
3:04
Speaker 1: again on your take on the recent development.
3:09
Speaker 3: Yeah.
3:09
Speaker 2: Look, it has been an incredible intense three four weeks
3:14
Speaker 2: since we last spoke, and obviously over the course of
3:18
Speaker 2: the last little bit of time, we have had this
3:21
Speaker 2: last minute so called cease five. I think it's important
3:25
Speaker 2: to put all of this into a bit of context. Obviously,
3:28
Speaker 2: at the base level, we have been witnessing and the
3:33
Speaker 2: war take place. And as the war unfolded, it became
3:37
Speaker 2: quite clear that the United States and Israel and it's
3:41
Speaker 2: golf allies were.
3:42
Speaker 3: On the wrong end of the stick.
3:44
Speaker 2: They failed in their initial objectives, which was regime change
3:49
Speaker 2: within a short space of time, pursuing a decapitation strategy.
3:54
Speaker 2: They then switched strategies to attempt to instigate regime change
3:59
Speaker 2: from them up your recall. In the early days of
4:02
Speaker 2: the war period, President Trump was publicly calling on Iranians
4:08
Speaker 2: to come out on the streets and overthrow the Iranian
4:13
Speaker 2: government that approach. That strategy backfired, well, it backfired in
4:21
Speaker 2: a significant way. Rather than causing a wounded population to
4:26
Speaker 2: turn on its own government, it actually galvinized popular support
4:30
Speaker 2: even amongst many people who had been previously critical of
4:35
Speaker 2: the Iranian government. So we now have a situation where
4:39
Speaker 2: Iranian society is more consolidated than it was before the
4:45
Speaker 2: war was initiated by Trump.
4:47
Speaker 3: And the Israelis, and the.
4:49
Speaker 2: Decapitation efforts did not lead to regime change. We then
4:55
Speaker 2: had a period of very significant bombing backwards and forwards,
5:02
Speaker 2: with Iran demonstrating its ability to.
5:05
Speaker 3: Reciprocate and retaliate on a lightful life basis, if you will.
5:12
Speaker 2: So the US would go in with initially long range missiles,
5:18
Speaker 2: very destructive of course, and killing school children, attacking the
5:22
Speaker 2: hospitals and other civilian centers, and of course no doubt
5:28
Speaker 2: on targeting where they could also some military installations.
5:31
Speaker 3: But Iran showed some very important things.
5:34
Speaker 2: One was that it actually had magazine magazine depth both
5:40
Speaker 2: in drones and in missiles. It was able to sustain
5:42
Speaker 2: its retaliations and is back. We now know when we
5:47
Speaker 2: look at ongoing reports that the early estimates that the
5:52
Speaker 2: first wave of attacks against Iran had destroyed, you know,
5:55
Speaker 2: almost decimated its missile based In fact, never did such
5:59
Speaker 2: a and I think the latest reports I saw as
6:02
Speaker 2: an estimate that well, maybe we knocked out half of it.
6:07
Speaker 2: So as each week goes by, the magazine depth of
6:11
Speaker 2: the Uranian military I think is revealing itself to be
6:14
Speaker 2: far greater than what the West had estimated at the outset.
6:20
Speaker 2: The drone manufacturing capability has also been shown to be
6:24
Speaker 2: incredibly resilient.
6:25
Speaker 3: The ability for the Uranian.
6:27
Speaker 2: Production system to support the use of high volume drone
6:32
Speaker 2: attacks has overwhelmed the card Iron Dome and American air
6:40
Speaker 2: defense systems. Right across the Gulf. We've seen American bases,
6:46
Speaker 2: around fifteen of them now severely damage or totally destroyed,
6:50
Speaker 2: leading to the evacuation of American troops from any of
6:54
Speaker 2: these places. Now, that in and of itself has long
6:57
Speaker 2: term significance, and of course Iran was able to exert
7:04
Speaker 2: control over.
7:05
Speaker 3: The Straight of hor Moves.
7:06
Speaker 2: It demonstrated that, in fact it held the whippand on
7:10
Speaker 2: the woll Moves weapon, and that ultimately is what has
7:16
Speaker 2: proven a few things. One is that Iran is a
7:19
Speaker 2: regional power to be recognised, and in fact.
7:22
Speaker 3: Because of the significance.
7:24
Speaker 2: Of hydrocarbon flows through that strait, it is a global
7:29
Speaker 2: power to be recognized. It is able to significantly impact
7:34
Speaker 2: the global economy and lives around the world. So this
7:39
Speaker 2: war today has proven that Iranian military capability is deeper
7:45
Speaker 2: than it was ever thought to be. Secondly, that in fact,
7:49
Speaker 2: it has a much stronger hand than the Americans. The
7:53
Speaker 2: Americans simply do not have the magazine depth or the
7:58
Speaker 2: military means to wrestle control of austraight offore moves from Iran.
8:03
Speaker 2: As a result of this, we entered into what Robert
8:06
Speaker 2: Pate described as an escalation trap, and the risk was
8:11
Speaker 2: that in the face of the inability to achieve its
8:16
Speaker 2: outcomes using a bombing strategy, the United States would ultimately
8:22
Speaker 2: need to escalate to boots on the ground. And we've
8:25
Speaker 2: seen ongoing troop movements into the region. Now, the numbers
8:30
Speaker 2: of troops moving into the region so far are really
8:34
Speaker 2: insubstantial when it comes to addressing the real issues of
8:38
Speaker 2: disarming Iran, if that's the point of view that you've got,
8:41
Speaker 2: and so ultimately, as of the time that we're speaking,
8:49
Speaker 2: rather than move in with a full party attempt to
8:54
Speaker 2: land boots on the ground, so I think that there
8:56
Speaker 2: was a bit of an attempt obviously not just to
9:00
Speaker 2: rescue a couple of fighter pilots, but arguably also, I
9:03
Speaker 2: think from other reports the suggestions that in fact were
9:06
Speaker 2: an attempt to go in and get the get the
9:10
Speaker 2: process uranium from Iran, and that failed miserably, and I
9:15
Speaker 2: think Trump in the end was facing a very very
9:18
Speaker 2: difficult problem. He took back himself into a corner. And
9:22
Speaker 2: so the retric that you talked about, you know, that
9:26
Speaker 2: civilizational destruction rhetoric was.
9:30
Speaker 3: In many ways Blacks, but it was. It's a few functions.
9:36
Speaker 2: I think the most important one of that was actually
9:38
Speaker 2: laid the groundwork from Trump's point of view, to be
9:42
Speaker 2: able to say that the Ceaspire agreement that was reached
9:47
Speaker 2: and will come obviously as we go in this conversation
9:49
Speaker 2: to why very fragile but reaching that Ceaspire agreement was
9:54
Speaker 2: an off ramp that in part was engineered by Trump's
9:57
Speaker 2: over the top retric not because is Iran felt threatened.
10:02
Speaker 2: In fact, they were willing to millions of Iranians be
10:06
Speaker 2: willing to martyr themselves. Okay, I'm back again. This is
10:13
Speaker 2: going to be a little fun I think, but hopefully
10:16
Speaker 2: the audience won't mind too much. Look, Trump basically laid
10:20
Speaker 2: the groundwork for he's backing down, and he was now
10:24
Speaker 2: able to say that it was because he threatened to
10:26
Speaker 2: annihilate a civilization that forced.
10:28
Speaker 3: Iran sand But in truth, no.
10:34
Speaker 2: I going to get a sea spar for for at
10:37
Speaker 2: least ten days. So here we are. Iran is a
10:41
Speaker 2: great car. It controls the straightfour moves. The American military
10:45
Speaker 2: has been strategically defeated today, and we have entered into
10:49
Speaker 2: a fragile cease fire that has already been undermined by
10:56
Speaker 2: the Israelis. That's where we're at.
10:59
Speaker 1: But where do we go for from here? Because it
11:02
Speaker 1: looks like Israel has no interest in peace settlement. They
11:05
Speaker 1: will continue to escalate because this fits their whole aim
11:09
Speaker 1: of destabilizing West Asia, so they can they can proceed.
11:15
Speaker 1: Where's the greater Israel projects. This is why they continue
11:18
Speaker 1: to push into southern Lebanon, And this is why Yahoo
11:23
Speaker 1: had a press conference where he said, now we we
11:26
Speaker 1: will not abide by by ceasefire because this is we
11:30
Speaker 1: are going to proceed until we achieve our war aim.
11:33
Speaker 1: And we all know their their war aim is to
11:36
Speaker 1: degrade regional power such as Uran, so they no longer
11:42
Speaker 1: present obstacle to to Israel's plans in West Asia. This
11:48
Speaker 1: is why they're going to southern Leblon trying to root
11:50
Speaker 1: out Azbolah, And where do we go from here? We're
11:58
Speaker 1: we're in the trap. We're trapped.
12:00
Speaker 2: Look, absolutely, Carlen. I think one of the rictures is
12:03
Speaker 2: the United States. Yeah, Look, the United States States is
12:06
Speaker 2: a big challenge now because it has an ally Israel
12:11
Speaker 2: that it has obviously been incredibly influenced.
12:14
Speaker 3: By over many decades. In fact, they've been.
12:17
Speaker 2: Tired at the hip in foreign policy terms now for
12:20
Speaker 2: a long time, literally going off doing its own thing,
12:24
Speaker 2: so to speak. Now, I'm sure that there'll be many
12:26
Speaker 2: people with all sorts of theories about this, But on
12:28
Speaker 2: face value, if the United States and the Trump administration
12:33
Speaker 2: actually does at some level seek to find a way
12:37
Speaker 2: out of this problem that they've got themselves into, then
12:40
Speaker 2: they're going to need to figure out how they're going
12:42
Speaker 2: to bring Israel to heal. But I think that that's
12:44
Speaker 2: going to be a very very difficult problem in the
12:46
Speaker 2: end for the United States to be able to do.
12:49
Speaker 2: That's the first thing. The second thing is that the
12:51
Speaker 2: ten points that are part of the Israeli the Iranian
12:58
Speaker 2: cease by talks work includes I think conditions that the
13:03
Speaker 2: United States and the political beliefe broadly speaking, will find
13:07
Speaker 2: incredibly difficult to come to the party on, you know,
13:10
Speaker 2: the commitments to withdrawing American troops from the region. That's
13:16
Speaker 2: a very bitter pill to swallow because that is the
13:19
Speaker 2: tangible signs of empire decline in the region as the whole,
13:24
Speaker 2: and again the significant global ramifications. The idea of providing
13:30
Speaker 2: around with extensive or even full sanction for the I
13:33
Speaker 2: think is going to be very problematic, even if Trump
13:37
Speaker 2: wanted to.
13:39
Speaker 3: A lot of the.
13:40
Speaker 2: Sanctions imposed on Iran over the years have actually been
13:44
Speaker 2: imposed by congressional legislation. So there will need to be
13:49
Speaker 2: legislative change going through Congress, and I think it's fair
13:54
Speaker 2: to say that that's not necessarily going to be an
13:59
Speaker 2: easy path. There will be many, many members of Congress
14:04
Speaker 2: who will be I think, very reluctant to backtrack on sanctions.
14:10
Speaker 2: And so again that is going to be a difficult
14:14
Speaker 2: condition to me. And so, you know, so we then
14:18
Speaker 2: get to this issue of austraightafor moves. You know, Trump
14:21
Speaker 2: talks about it being open back back to normal sort
14:24
Speaker 2: of thing, but in truth, the terms has articulated by
14:30
Speaker 2: Iran is very clear that yes, the straight offor moves
14:33
Speaker 2: will be open to traffic, subject to conditions, and those
14:37
Speaker 2: conditions are going to be ones dictated by Iran. Now
14:42
Speaker 2: it's made it also very clear that it will be
14:45
Speaker 2: particularly open to countries that have been friendly to it
14:51
Speaker 2: during its darkest hours and most difficult times, and will
14:55
Speaker 2: not be particularly liberal in the way it governs the
15:01
Speaker 2: movement of ships through that straight to countries who have
15:05
Speaker 2: not been friendly to it. So I think what we
15:09
Speaker 2: are now moving into is an era where Iran is
15:13
Speaker 2: able to.
15:14
Speaker 3: Hold the straight orfore moves.
15:17
Speaker 2: Whether it exercises that car or or not in some
15:21
Speaker 2: ways is not overly significant from a geopolitical pint of view.
15:26
Speaker 2: It's merely the fact that it can now do that,
15:28
Speaker 2: and that the United States has no way of stopping
15:30
Speaker 2: it from doing that, and that's going to change the
15:34
Speaker 2: entire dynamics of the region and also change the structured
15:39
Speaker 2: configuration of the global cars. The other interesting thing is
15:43
Speaker 2: that reports suggests that China played some role in the
15:49
Speaker 2: peace byre in the Seaspire discussions, particularly in two steps.
15:56
Speaker 3: As You'll reform.
15:58
Speaker 2: The Chinese Foreign Minutes met with his Pakistani counterpart about
16:03
Speaker 2: a week or so.
16:04
Speaker 3: Ago where they prepared a five point plan, and more
16:07
Speaker 3: recently the reports indicate.
16:09
Speaker 2: That the Chinese side encouraged and fraudded Iran to ultimately
16:18
Speaker 2: accede to this cease fire by way of the ten
16:20
Speaker 2: point plan. And that's quite a significant back channel piece
16:28
Speaker 2: of influence, I think, and I think that there's many
16:30
Speaker 2: parts to how that might unfold as well.
16:33
Speaker 3: So where are we at. Well, we're at a very fragile.
16:37
Speaker 2: Seaspar that clearly is not comprehensively being adhered to by
16:43
Speaker 2: the United States, and it's our eyes, which ultimately I
16:46
Speaker 2: think leads to big questions about whether or not the
16:50
Speaker 2: seaspar itself is going to last the two weeks.
16:53
Speaker 3: We know that ceasepies are.
16:55
Speaker 2: Difficult things to hold together for all sorts of reasons.
17:00
Speaker 2: In the meantime, the Iranians and the Americans will seek
17:03
Speaker 2: to exercise non kinetic leverage, unless, of course, they're provoke
17:09
Speaker 2: into literally going back to firing missiles. And the Irans
17:12
Speaker 2: already retaliated against Israel, but they will need to during
17:18
Speaker 2: this so called negotiation phase.
17:23
Speaker 3: I have no doubt that both.
17:24
Speaker 2: Sides will be seeking to shape those negotiations and will
17:29
Speaker 2: seek to exercise as much.
17:32
Speaker 3: Leverage as they possibly can.
17:34
Speaker 2: Iran's got a very big level lever and that is
17:37
Speaker 2: the state of Homers.
17:40
Speaker 1: Yeah, and right now we already have the White House
17:44
Speaker 1: trying to walk back on some of the agreement that
17:49
Speaker 1: may have led to the ceasefire in the first place.
17:51
Speaker 1: You have the White House spokesperson love It says will
17:55
Speaker 1: actually President Trump tore up the ten point man by
18:00
Speaker 1: Iran and literally tossed into the trash bin. And you
18:04
Speaker 1: have the Vice Priendsident JD. Van said, while we are
18:08
Speaker 1: the agreement never included Lebanon. You know, the agreement was
18:12
Speaker 1: only on between US and the US and and Iran.
18:17
Speaker 1: We have no control what Israel will do well or
18:20
Speaker 1: will not do. Uh so. But but the Uran's demand
18:25
Speaker 1: was very clear. That's why they went ahead and closed
18:27
Speaker 1: the down the Straight or homos again. And this demonstrate
18:32
Speaker 1: whether you know the the you know, one point of
18:35
Speaker 1: the ten point demand from Iran is to recognize Iran's
18:39
Speaker 1: military control of the of the Home Straight or horm
18:42
Speaker 1: Moose and codify that in the u N. Uh it
18:46
Speaker 1: is through the u N. But whether that happens or not,
18:49
Speaker 1: I think it's a fact on the ground that that
18:53
Speaker 1: Uran does did establish military control over Straight or homose
18:58
Speaker 1: UH and United States have no response to that. I
19:03
Speaker 1: do think that I also agree with you what you
19:07
Speaker 1: said earlier that Trump was looking for a off ramp.
19:11
Speaker 1: I think that huge supposedly pilot rescue operation was Trump's
19:17
Speaker 1: off ramp, because that was actually the operation to extract
19:22
Speaker 1: in ratio uranium from Iran but actually fail, which the
19:26
Speaker 1: White House then trying to spin into a propaganda victory
19:29
Speaker 1: claiming that they're sending one hundred and fifty three aircraft
19:33
Speaker 1: just to rescue that one long pilot, which is does
19:37
Speaker 1: not pass a small test. But because of that fail,
19:40
Speaker 1: I think that force that led to Trumps first outbursts
19:44
Speaker 1: on social media and then later to accept a talks
19:49
Speaker 1: for a ceasefire. Now, the thing is what I find
19:57
Speaker 1: interesting is the GCCS has really dug in their heel
20:02
Speaker 1: in terms of hitching themselves to the US is really
20:06
Speaker 1: bangwagon like. It's a GCC that proposed a UN resolution
20:12
Speaker 1: to authorize military action to reopen the Straight Moves, which
20:17
Speaker 1: was vetoed by Russia and China and in the more
20:20
Speaker 1: recent attacks against you run after the ceasefire agreement was announced.
20:25
Speaker 1: It turns out there was a plane.
20:28
Speaker 3: It was a.
20:28
Speaker 1: Mirage plane from from from UAE because u a E
20:34
Speaker 1: Is the only country in the region that operate Mirage fighters.
20:38
Speaker 1: So it looks like the gccs that they really want
20:43
Speaker 1: to go after you run for some reason. I mean, like,
20:45
Speaker 1: I do not understand it. It's their assets will be
20:49
Speaker 1: on the line the longer the war drags out. Their
20:54
Speaker 1: their infrastructure is getting threatened, their lifeline is getting cut.
21:00
Speaker 2: Go ahead, sorry, yeah, Look, I think it's a great
21:04
Speaker 2: observation because the GCC states, the oil and gas monarchs
21:10
Speaker 2: have benefited greatly of force over the last sixty years
21:14
Speaker 2: under American protection and the sort of deal with the
21:19
Speaker 2: devil with Israel that enabled them to survive and prosper
21:26
Speaker 2: as monarchies. The problem for them now is that the
21:29
Speaker 2: fundamentals of what made that possible has actually crumbled, and
21:34
Speaker 2: we've seen it because the Iranian attacks on American basis
21:37
Speaker 2: have been devastating. Now as a result of that, we're
21:41
Speaker 2: also starting to see fragmentation amongst those monarchies, and a
21:47
Speaker 2: couple of them have already been speaking directly to Tehran
21:54
Speaker 2: with a view two ultimately arriving at a Dayton.
21:57
Speaker 3: What we're left with is Baffin.
22:00
Speaker 2: In Saudi Arabia and the UAE holding on tightly to
22:08
Speaker 2: what is, in effect the crumbling legacy of US regional hegemony.
22:14
Speaker 2: Will I suspect and look at the outset of this
22:18
Speaker 2: warm I actually publicly spoke of my expectation that at
22:25
Speaker 2: some point these Golf monarchies will reach out to Iran
22:29
Speaker 2: to seek to cut a deal. And I must say
22:32
Speaker 2: I think I underestimated the extent to which these monarchies
22:35
Speaker 2: would hang on and to show what you would model
22:40
Speaker 2: a certain kind of resolve. But as their infrastructure is
22:43
Speaker 2: being destroyed, and as the sources of their wealth is destroyed,
22:49
Speaker 2: I think that in time the Golf moducts are going
22:52
Speaker 2: to need to confront the choice that is in front
22:57
Speaker 2: of them, and that is the choice of almost certain
23:02
Speaker 2: destruction if they perpetuate the war and support the perpetuation
23:07
Speaker 2: of the war, because one thing is certain, and that
23:09
Speaker 2: is that Iran will destroy all of the region's infrastructure
23:15
Speaker 2: if it feels so threatened. The second choice, of course,
23:19
Speaker 2: is the uncertainties of what an Iranian an Iranian lead
23:25
Speaker 2: if you will on an Iranian anchored regional security architecture
23:29
Speaker 2: looks like for them, and that's going to be up
23:32
Speaker 2: to the extent to which they have leveraged and also
23:34
Speaker 2: the state craft that they can mobilize. So there's a
23:37
Speaker 2: lot of uncertainty in one direction. But I think the
23:40
Speaker 2: choice ultimately is going to be between the uncertainty of
23:43
Speaker 2: the future or the certainty of destruction. That's my suspicion.
23:52
Speaker 2: Whether or not, I guess the golf line arps sort
23:56
Speaker 2: of dig their heels, and even further who knows.
23:58
Speaker 3: With all of this going on, I do.
24:00
Speaker 2: Wonder whether or not a very small city spade light
24:05
Speaker 2: the UAE is actually going to survive.
24:08
Speaker 3: Of course, we've seen capital flight already.
24:12
Speaker 2: The real estate market in the UAE has collapsed, and
24:18
Speaker 2: you know, those some of the things that actually made
24:21
Speaker 2: the UAE economy more diversified, I guess than just oil.
24:27
Speaker 2: But as that starts to fall away, and as they
24:30
Speaker 2: lose access to the straight up for moves, and they're
24:32
Speaker 2: going to be in some serious trouble without American protection.
24:39
Speaker 1: Yeah, and then there is Israel. You know, Israel will
24:42
Speaker 1: continue to do what you always chose to do, which
24:46
Speaker 1: is continue to be the bad actors that destabilize the region.
24:51
Speaker 1: I was actually surprised to see the French President mccrown
24:55
Speaker 1: putting out a tweet where he says he has spoken
24:59
Speaker 1: with the president of Lebanon where he condemned the unilateral
25:04
Speaker 1: action of Israel to bring this war to Lebanon. Uh.
25:08
Speaker 1: This is probably the strongest language I have seen so
25:12
Speaker 1: far from the French president uh on the action of Israel.
25:17
Speaker 1: But but then again, it's Macron. Macroom always know how
25:20
Speaker 1: to say the right thing to the right audiences. I
25:23
Speaker 1: don't know what we can take away from that. You know,
25:26
Speaker 1: he will congratulate Nau in the next tweet. Who knows, uh.
25:32
Speaker 2: But it it.
25:33
Speaker 1: I think it does show a certain shift, uh, at
25:37
Speaker 1: least in sentiment, because Spain now has stand out really
25:42
Speaker 1: among the European leadership to really condemn Israel for its
25:47
Speaker 1: uh genocide in Gaza. Uh. And the Spanish president the
25:52
Speaker 1: Spanish uh uh uh. The leader is actually heading over
25:59
Speaker 1: to China as we speak to meet with the President Hijiping.
26:04
Speaker 1: And I think this represent I think the sea shift
26:11
Speaker 1: that's going to that's going to take place in Europe,
26:15
Speaker 1: you know, Like I think it's just a tip of
26:17
Speaker 1: the Iceberg right now.
26:20
Speaker 2: Yeah, Look, this is Events like this, of course can
26:24
Speaker 2: cause cascading political transformations in many parts of the world.
26:29
Speaker 2: But even if you just look at Israel itself, as
26:32
Speaker 2: we know, Israel has largely been following through on a
26:36
Speaker 2: thirteen year plan to destabilize the region, knock over regional
26:41
Speaker 2: powers that are problematic to it, and ultimately pursue that's
26:46
Speaker 2: the brand plan of Greater Israel.
26:49
Speaker 3: Now.
26:49
Speaker 2: As part of that thirty year ambition, Iran has been,
26:52
Speaker 2: of course the biggest stumbling block and the last of
26:56
Speaker 2: the stumbling blocks. And I think it's fair to say
26:59
Speaker 2: that that you whose wildest dreams came true over the
27:03
Speaker 2: course of the last twelve months when he found an
27:06
Speaker 2: American political setup that was actually willing to entertain this
27:11
Speaker 2: kind of escapade at incredible risk to American reputation as
27:17
Speaker 2: we've seen, at incredible risk to American resources, which we've
27:22
Speaker 2: also seen play out. But ultimately I'm not sure that
27:26
Speaker 2: Metna who cares particularly much. The interesting thing I think
27:30
Speaker 2: from this is that these all of these pressure points
27:33
Speaker 2: will also leave the pressure points on Israel as well,
27:36
Speaker 2: because as the Golf States start to crumble, as American
27:41
Speaker 2: presence in the region disappears. Will America put pressure on
27:46
Speaker 2: Israel to bring them to heal is metnir Whose position
27:50
Speaker 2: in Israel going to be able to sustain itself when
27:54
Speaker 2: there is wreckage all around, you know, with strategic failure,
27:58
Speaker 2: when the attempts to prosecute the war against Lebanon and
28:02
Speaker 2: Hezbela continues to know not deliver. And will Israeli society
28:10
Speaker 2: yourself put up with this as the game plan? Maybe
28:15
Speaker 2: they will, maybe they won't, But this will force, I think,
28:20
Speaker 2: a confrontation with the elephant in the room, which is
28:25
Speaker 2: the Palestinian question. One of the things about the Iranian
28:31
Speaker 2: government is that it has been one of the firmest
28:34
Speaker 2: and clearest supporters of the Palestinian state and the Palestinian
28:39
Speaker 2: people over all of these decades, and in fact, it
28:43
Speaker 2: was one of those rare players in the region that
28:46
Speaker 2: would stand up to the Americans and the Israelis as
28:49
Speaker 2: they attacked Palaesign. And I think part of the reason,
28:54
Speaker 2: of course for this war is precisely Iran's position and
29:00
Speaker 2: indirectly in pushing back against Israel's ambitions concerning Palassign. But
29:08
Speaker 2: this will make the palaceine in question come fully to
29:12
Speaker 2: the table, because without that being addressed, it's impossible to
29:17
Speaker 2: fully address the regional security architecture, and that's probably going
29:22
Speaker 2: to require political change in israelise now the United States
29:28
Speaker 2: and play a useful regime change role in this regard
29:31
Speaker 2: if it was of a mind to and to bring
29:35
Speaker 2: an israel political leadership that is that is more sensible
29:41
Speaker 2: to the realities of the world as it is as
29:44
Speaker 2: opposed to simply trying to live through some you know
29:49
Speaker 2: biblit called, you know, ordained plan to fulfill the promise.
29:56
Speaker 2: The European situation, I think is also incredibly interesting that
29:59
Speaker 2: a so dangerous are because as European energy constraints continue
30:07
Speaker 2: to tighten, the political fallout will be quite significant. At
30:12
Speaker 2: the moment, the main opposition to the dominant elite in
30:17
Speaker 2: most European capitals and in Brussels is coming from the
30:21
Speaker 2: political right, and I suspect that given the abject and
30:28
Speaker 2: disorganization of the political left in Europe, and in fact
30:32
Speaker 2: the sort of subsumption of the political left in Europe
30:37
Speaker 2: to being parties of the establishment themselves, the likely response
30:43
Speaker 2: over the next two to three or four years is
30:46
Speaker 2: going to be a rejuvenation of right wing nationalism, and
30:51
Speaker 2: that's going to bring considerable political pressures in Europe obviously
30:56
Speaker 2: in terms of the European Union project itself, also could
31:01
Speaker 2: lead to some very serious social fallout with particular groups
31:06
Speaker 2: in these societies being targeted. So Europe is going to
31:10
Speaker 2: be in for I think some very very challenging times.
31:14
Speaker 3: Now.
31:14
Speaker 2: Some of that, of course, was totally self inflicted. Now
31:18
Speaker 2: we've discussed in the past the role of the European
31:22
Speaker 2: elite in the kinds of decisions that they've made that
31:25
Speaker 2: have left themselves vulnerable to these sorts of issues when
31:29
Speaker 2: the solutions are actually staring them in the face. But
31:32
Speaker 2: to grab those opportunities requires a European political elite to.
31:37
Speaker 3: Overcome, as Russophobia overcome.
31:40
Speaker 2: It's sort of oriental delite sort of perspectives, the orientalism
31:46
Speaker 2: that has leads it to be very reticent to embrace
31:52
Speaker 2: the opportunities of China, and ultimately they've led themselves into
31:57
Speaker 2: the sentier position of dependency on American LM being an
32:01
Speaker 2: exposure to energy risk in more ways than most could imagine,
32:06
Speaker 2: and and and and also have left them largely irrelevant
32:10
Speaker 2: at the geopolitical table.
32:13
Speaker 3: And you know, that they are that.
32:15
Speaker 2: You know this, Macron can talk the good talk, but
32:19
Speaker 2: I don't think they've got the means to do very
32:21
Speaker 2: much at all these days.
32:23
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's exactly right. I just saw Wunderling recently release
32:28
Speaker 1: a statement on the ceasefire, and on the reply section,
32:33
Speaker 1: I see people say you didn't do nothing. You know
32:35
Speaker 1: this is this? You know Pakistan and China did more
32:39
Speaker 1: while you're a watch on the sidelines. It's exactly right.
32:43
Speaker 1: European leadership have rendered themselves irrelevant on this world stage
32:48
Speaker 1: by just being mere puppets or or or going along
32:52
Speaker 1: with with us. Is this really goes This goes back
32:58
Speaker 1: to the United States, the main actor for instigating this conflict.
33:03
Speaker 1: You know, even if it was dragged in by Natiyahoo
33:07
Speaker 1: likes the New York Times report because you're According to
33:10
Speaker 1: the New York Times, Natiahu made a special trip to
33:13
Speaker 1: Washington where he met Trump and he convinced Trump that
33:17
Speaker 1: it's going to be an easy regime change operation Iran
33:20
Speaker 1: to a decapitation strike and everything will fall into place.
33:25
Speaker 1: But still it's still United States that when they're head
33:30
Speaker 1: an attack, you run along reviews Row and we are
33:35
Speaker 1: at the situation where Trump is increasingly uh trapped, trapped
33:44
Speaker 1: both politically, domestically and also on an international stage. You
33:50
Speaker 1: know now that there's an increasing call for his impeachment
33:55
Speaker 1: among the among the people of Congress, and he drags
34:01
Speaker 1: the US reputation, you know, through the floor with this,
34:06
Speaker 1: you know, by making you wrong effectively a world superpower, uh,
34:11
Speaker 1: through this conflict. Where where can it go from here?
34:17
Speaker 1: I mean like we are still at a point where
34:20
Speaker 1: we're still kind of back to the Trump like putting
34:25
Speaker 1: out contradiction tweed about how the which direction the war
34:30
Speaker 1: is going to go, and and the market reacting one
34:34
Speaker 1: way or the other. Well, you know, Trump's crny is
34:37
Speaker 1: probably reeking in through market manipulation in the back back.
34:41
Speaker 1: And but the world at large is still being hauled
34:46
Speaker 1: hostage by this crisis, you know, particularly the parts of
34:50
Speaker 1: the countries in Asia, which is more dependent on the
34:54
Speaker 1: oil and gas coming from the Gulf than say Europe
34:57
Speaker 1: or United States, Uh, where the farmer still needs fertilizers.
35:05
Speaker 1: Australia is running out of field. And then recently I
35:09
Speaker 1: saw all Bonese tweeted out that he had a constructive
35:14
Speaker 1: conversation with his counterpart in China et cetera, et cetera,
35:18
Speaker 1: and I kind of trolled him. I quote tweeted. I said, oh,
35:22
Speaker 1: this is Australia begging for field from China, which probably
35:26
Speaker 1: is true because Australia do depend heavily on China for
35:31
Speaker 1: fuel imports. You know, thirty two percent of jet fuel
35:36
Speaker 1: Australia is getting it from China, and Australia, as you
35:42
Speaker 1: mentioned last time we talked a month ago, it was
35:45
Speaker 1: already running out of field. Australia do not have a
35:48
Speaker 1: deep strategic petroleum reserve. Where do all these other countries
35:55
Speaker 1: go from here? Are they also just going to be
35:58
Speaker 1: like on the sidelines, just like say Europe and watch
36:01
Speaker 1: the world chrombo.
36:05
Speaker 3: Well, they've got some choices.
36:07
Speaker 2: To make that they What I think the world in
36:12
Speaker 2: a sense needs is for all of the victims, if
36:18
Speaker 2: you will, of American and Israeli adventurism and American hegemony
36:24
Speaker 2: is for those countries to actually get together and there
36:27
Speaker 2: are many forums in which they can get together and
36:30
Speaker 2: actually speak very directly to the US, including its so
36:34
Speaker 2: called middle power allies, because they are also being severely
36:37
Speaker 2: harmed by American actions, and literally say to them, listen,
36:43
Speaker 2: this is the end of the road.
36:46
Speaker 3: We won't put up with this anymore.
36:48
Speaker 2: And if you continue to behave like this, we are
36:51
Speaker 2: actually going to send you to the corner and you
36:56
Speaker 2: will be the one. But the rest of the world
36:58
Speaker 2: is going to sanction and until you actually can behave
37:02
Speaker 2: like a genuine adult that can make sensible contribution to
37:06
Speaker 2: global welfare. And now whether or not they can do
37:10
Speaker 2: that is a different story. But if these countries like
37:16
Speaker 2: Australia actually want to meaningfully address this issue, they're going
37:19
Speaker 2: to need to pluck up the courage to participate in this.
37:23
Speaker 3: Kind of engagement with the United States.
37:26
Speaker 2: I'm not entirely optimistic that they have the ability to
37:29
Speaker 2: do that, but that I think is the kind of
37:32
Speaker 2: thing that they will need to do if they were
37:35
Speaker 2: serious about contributing to the resolution of these issues and
37:40
Speaker 2: taking the world beyond what is in effect the dying
37:43
Speaker 2: days of American primacy. The other thing that I think
37:47
Speaker 2: is clearly happening is that countries are fast tracking their
37:52
Speaker 2: electrification processes, and countries that don't have a lot of
37:58
Speaker 2: historical hydrocarbon dependency are obviously well positioned to do that.
38:03
Speaker 2: They have much less problems to address in terms of transitions.
38:07
Speaker 2: Countries that are heavily dependent on hydro carbons obviously have
38:11
Speaker 2: quite a lot of work to do. Australia, for example,
38:14
Speaker 2: has quite a lot of challenges given its dependencies on deesel,
38:17
Speaker 2: for example, and it needs to find ways to reduce
38:21
Speaker 2: those dependencies as quickly as they costily hand. So we're
38:24
Speaker 2: going to see a process of.
38:29
Speaker 3: Accelerated electrification.
38:37
Speaker 1: Yeah, indeed, we're losing Professor power on for a moment again.
38:43
Speaker 1: But Australia is a country that has abounded natural resources.
38:48
Speaker 1: Actually it's abounding in colpoth coal and natural gas. And
38:54
Speaker 1: yet you know it's so dependent on oil imports at it.
39:01
Speaker 1: You know, it cannot function without importing basic stuff like gasoline, diesel.
39:07
Speaker 1: And Okay, it looks like we lost doctor Powerful for
39:14
Speaker 1: a moment, but I'm sure he will be back. Let's see.
39:20
Speaker 1: Let's let's let's give him some Let's give him a
39:24
Speaker 1: couple of moments. I'll just stay here and and talk
39:29
Speaker 1: to talk through to my audience while waiting for doctor
39:33
Speaker 1: Paul to come back. Oh okay, now doctor Paul is back.
39:39
Speaker 1: Welcome back, doctor Paul. I know this is not easy
39:44
Speaker 1: for you to travel three hundred and fifty kilometers an
39:48
Speaker 1: hour and trying to maintain a stable Internet connection. But
39:51
Speaker 1: so far, so good.
39:53
Speaker 2: Uh you know, actually, actually actually the internet connection went
39:59
Speaker 2: bad as like came into a station. So it was
40:02
Speaker 2: perfectly fine when I was going at three hundred and
40:04
Speaker 2: fifty kilometers in our So anyway, Look, it's still remarkable
40:10
Speaker 2: that I think we can do this, and have you
40:14
Speaker 2: know that there used to be concerns at three hundred
40:17
Speaker 2: and fifty kilometers are now that there'd be too much
40:19
Speaker 2: contention and there'd be no way of achieving the internet coverage.
40:25
Speaker 2: But clearly the Internet here in China is of a
40:28
Speaker 2: standard that can cope quite well with this. And in fact,
40:31
Speaker 2: all of the travelers around me are all on their phones. Surprise, surprise,
40:35
Speaker 2: I'm doing one thing or another on the internet. Look,
40:40
Speaker 2: there's also likelihoods of a very significant domestic As I
40:45
Speaker 2: said earlier, you know that the political ramifications that can
40:48
Speaker 2: unfold as a result of this can be quite quite widespread.
40:51
Speaker 2: You know, you throw big rocks into ponds and the
40:54
Speaker 2: ripples can go in all sorts of directions. And the
40:57
Speaker 2: United States, it source is going to experience it, obviously
41:00
Speaker 2: at the congressional level, there's talk of impeachments, to talk
41:03
Speaker 2: of the twenty fifth themen and blah blah blah bah
41:07
Speaker 2: you all sorts of things about concerns about the ability
41:11
Speaker 2: of President Trump to continue to occupy that position.
41:15
Speaker 3: We're also seeing, of course, the politicking and the lead
41:18
Speaker 3: up to the.
41:20
Speaker 2: Midterm elections on the fourth of third or fourth of
41:22
Speaker 2: November this year, and the economic conditions of the United
41:26
Speaker 2: States itself aren't greade.
41:27
Speaker 3: You know.
41:27
Speaker 2: We've seen significant job losses actually in the manufacturing sector
41:31
Speaker 2: in the last ten months that wasn't part of the plan.
41:34
Speaker 2: We've seen a number of data centers now actually being deferred.
41:39
Speaker 2: They're not going to get built, and they're not getting
41:42
Speaker 2: built because of the unavailability of electricity to service and
41:47
Speaker 2: so these are data center projects in Maine. And this
41:51
Speaker 2: is going to be a situation that will affect the
41:54
Speaker 2: AI industry, which of course has been the.
41:58
Speaker 3: Financial leading line.
42:01
Speaker 2: Of the United States economy over the course of the
42:03
Speaker 2: last twelve months or so. So there's going to be
42:07
Speaker 2: I think some serious political fallout from this.
42:10
Speaker 3: It depends on whether or not organize.
42:14
Speaker 2: Make use of it, and channel this sort of political
42:19
Speaker 2: energy in certain directions. The other area that I think,
42:22
Speaker 2: and probably one that's closest to our own hearts because
42:24
Speaker 2: we're located.
42:25
Speaker 3: In a I'm just saying that Asia, you know, I
42:27
Speaker 3: think it's.
42:28
Speaker 2: Going to be an area that is going to experience
42:32
Speaker 2: some very significant ripple effects. Not just for the energy
42:36
Speaker 2: reasons directly, though obviously that's one, but the fact.
42:39
Speaker 3: That the United States clearly does not have.
42:41
Speaker 2: The ability to defend it spaces and defend its allies
42:44
Speaker 2: is already causing concerns amongst its traditional.
42:48
Speaker 3: Allies in Asia, who are now.
42:51
Speaker 2: Without a doubt asking the question, doesn't make sense for
42:55
Speaker 2: us to build our entire national security architecture and security
43:00
Speaker 2: architecture on the idea that the American basis in the
43:04
Speaker 2: region is what we need to make the region secure.
43:10
Speaker 2: Every time you look at the refuge of the bases
43:13
Speaker 2: in Saudi Arabia, tatar and other places like that, I
43:17
Speaker 2: think the centers of power in Asia, the political classes
43:21
Speaker 2: and citizens as well, will need to pass themselves.
43:25
Speaker 3: Is this actually the way to security in the region or.
43:29
Speaker 2: Is this actually making countries in the region and parts
43:32
Speaker 2: of parts of those countries targets, you know, where whereas
43:35
Speaker 2: those bases once we're seen as protective shields, they're really
43:40
Speaker 2: now seen as liabilities, and we're seeing this happen in
43:44
Speaker 2: South Korea. The public therefore, the best part of two
43:49
Speaker 2: years or more, the survey's opinions that they showed consistently
43:53
Speaker 2: that the citizens they don't believe that the American can
43:59
Speaker 2: be dependent upon that. South Korea will seek its own
44:05
Speaker 2: intensified militarization, which is what they've been doing with advanced technologies.
44:09
Speaker 2: But I think that there is going to be growing
44:11
Speaker 2: pressure in South Korea and Japan to nuclearized. The Philippines,
44:17
Speaker 2: of course, is also experiencing these problems because you've got
44:22
Speaker 2: an administration there that's deeply connected to the United States
44:26
Speaker 2: historical and personal levels. But Filipino people can see what's
44:32
Speaker 2: been going on in the Persian Gulf and understand that
44:36
Speaker 2: the presence of American basis on the Philippines actually makes
44:40
Speaker 2: the Philippines themselves the front line for America's laws, and
44:46
Speaker 2: having those bases there is actually not a protective shield
44:49
Speaker 2: for the Philippines.
44:50
Speaker 3: But he's actually a red flag.
44:54
Speaker 2: And of course, I think we see growing debates in
44:59
Speaker 2: and around Taipei as to whether or not a reliance
45:03
Speaker 2: on the United States is actually ultimately going to secure
45:07
Speaker 2: the kinds of futures that they want. And there has
45:11
Speaker 2: been plenty of talk about and arguments that in the
45:19
Speaker 2: legislative yearn of our budget expansions to buy more kids
45:24
Speaker 2: from America. But people also know that the American industrial
45:28
Speaker 2: complex military industrial complex is so far behind schedule that
45:32
Speaker 2: no matter how much they pay, they're not going to
45:34
Speaker 2: get most of the kid anyway. And the kit itself
45:36
Speaker 2: is demonstrably incapable of doing what the advertising said. And
45:43
Speaker 2: again this is one of the consequences of the war
45:47
Speaker 2: against Iran. Now there's a whole bunch of stuff.
45:49
Speaker 3: That we've learned in the real world.
45:53
Speaker 2: As a result of this war, and one of the
45:56
Speaker 2: most important parts of this is that the way that
45:59
Speaker 2: the American military industrial system has been set up, and
46:02
Speaker 2: the military doctrine and military equipment that is part of
46:07
Speaker 2: that doctrine in the United States is simply no longer
46:12
Speaker 2: able to ride roughshod over anybody any time. And in fact,
46:18
Speaker 2: the depletion of the American arsenal is probably one of
46:21
Speaker 2: the most significant outcomes of this war.
46:24
Speaker 3: Iran has been able.
46:25
Speaker 2: To deplete the American arsenal in ways that I don't
46:29
Speaker 2: think anybody could have imagined. Certainly Americans couldn't imagine it.
46:34
Speaker 2: And here we are. Asia is now staring at the
46:38
Speaker 2: reality that the Americans are stripping SAD missiles out of Korea.
46:43
Speaker 3: They've been moving marines out of Okinawa and other parts
46:46
Speaker 3: of Asia, and.
46:49
Speaker 2: There is going to be a need for a radical
46:51
Speaker 2: recink of what Asian security looks like without the presence
46:56
Speaker 2: of vible American basis.
47:03
Speaker 1: Yeah. Right now, the KMT uh, the main Taiwan opposition
47:09
Speaker 1: Party km t leader chairwoman, then the Neewan is traveling
47:15
Speaker 1: through mainland China right now. She's scheduled to meet with President.
47:18
Speaker 1: She she actually gave a speech. She said, uh, you know,
47:22
Speaker 1: if you truly love Taiwan, you do not want Taiwan
47:25
Speaker 1: to be a battlefield. You know. She's referring again to
47:30
Speaker 1: the the fact that Taiwan does not want to be
47:35
Speaker 1: Ukraine of East Asia. But for every leader like when
47:41
Speaker 1: you also have people like the Japanese Prime Minister taka
47:46
Speaker 1: ichisa I, who like much like the golf monarchies in GCC,
47:52
Speaker 1: are trying to desperately clean on to the japan US
47:56
Speaker 1: security pack. She there was report coming out of Japan,
48:00
Speaker 1: and that says Takai initially was actually considering to send
48:04
Speaker 1: the so called Japanese self defense forces, uh, the Japanese
48:12
Speaker 1: Marine time self defense Forces a KA Japanese Navy to
48:16
Speaker 1: the Persian golf, as Trump has requested. But it was
48:21
Speaker 1: at the last minute intervention by a former former aide
48:25
Speaker 1: to Shinzo Abe who who advised her against that. They
48:31
Speaker 1: told her it will be a political disaster uh if
48:34
Speaker 1: she did that. And and the fact that she even
48:38
Speaker 1: considered and entertained that thought, I find that flabber I'm flabbergasted.
48:45
Speaker 2: I missed a fabit of your last question, but I
48:49
Speaker 2: guess it was principally around the visit to the mainland
48:53
Speaker 2: by the Gorman dun chairwoman one and uh drinking one.
49:00
Speaker 3: She's actually scheduled to come to Beijing just after I've
49:03
Speaker 3: left Beathing.
49:04
Speaker 2: But I took the opportunity to take the temperature, if
49:07
Speaker 2: you will, from a number of colleagues here in Beijing,
49:13
Speaker 2: from the SYNC tanks and in the research university research base.
49:19
Speaker 3: I guess people who focus on.
49:20
Speaker 2: These sorts of issues, and I think that there is
49:24
Speaker 2: a general sense that there is a shift in the
49:28
Speaker 2: mood on the island, that there is a recognition that
49:33
Speaker 2: the island's future is actually too.
49:38
Speaker 3: Wan to be, if.
49:40
Speaker 2: Not reunified, because obviously there's still many issues to go through,
49:44
Speaker 2: there is certainly one that does not involve being the
49:49
Speaker 2: piggy in the middle and becoming the next Ukraine. And
49:54
Speaker 2: what is being demonstrated through this visit is that people
50:00
Speaker 2: on the two sides of the Taiwan Straits actually do
50:04
Speaker 2: have ways of engaging with each.
50:06
Speaker 3: Other, that there are.
50:07
Speaker 2: Substantial historical and contemporary linkages that actually provide ballast to
50:15
Speaker 2: the relationships. And it was no surprise, of course that
50:19
Speaker 2: John Lewan's first visit was to the Sunyatsin memorial, where
50:24
Speaker 2: she paid a homage to the founder of Republic in China.
50:33
Speaker 2: But of course people need to remember that Sun Yetsen
50:36
Speaker 2: as a Chinese nationalist, and I don't mean that in
50:39
Speaker 2: a party sense, but in a broader sense, was a
50:45
Speaker 2: figure who actually understood that a modern China needed to
50:53
Speaker 2: reconcile the differences between.
50:57
Speaker 3: The KMT, the Woman Dung and the Communist Party.
51:01
Speaker 2: And perhaps had he lived longer, you know, we might
51:07
Speaker 2: have had something that was that looked a bit less
51:11
Speaker 2: like a civil war and perhaps some other kind of
51:15
Speaker 2: resolution of these differences of opinion. And but her visit
51:20
Speaker 2: to the memorial I think clearly was a sign to
51:24
Speaker 2: say that this is our common heritage, our common political heritage,
51:29
Speaker 2: and it is the basis upon which cross straight relationships
51:33
Speaker 2: must be formed, and that never forget that this common
51:37
Speaker 2: heritage was always around the idea of a one China.
51:42
Speaker 3: So what does it look like going forward? Well, a
51:44
Speaker 3: lot is going to.
51:45
Speaker 2: Obviously depend on the reception on the island itself of
51:50
Speaker 2: her visit to the mainland, how that unfolds over the
51:53
Speaker 2: next two and a half years or so to the next.
51:56
Speaker 3: Elections, how the.
52:01
Speaker 2: Internal politics of the Gorman Dung itself copes with somebody
52:05
Speaker 2: like her who is clearly shaking up a little bit
52:09
Speaker 2: of the established status quong. Again, so there's a lot
52:12
Speaker 2: of water to go under the bridge yet. But I
52:16
Speaker 2: think the broader context of an America that is now
52:21
Speaker 2: going through a clear conventional retrenchment is going to play
52:28
Speaker 2: a role in the background considerations that any political league
52:33
Speaker 2: that needs to actually be very realistic about today. Hopefully,
52:38
Speaker 2: you know, these dialogues will labor ground work for fort
52:42
Speaker 2: of deeper re engagements around the issues of substance. But
52:46
Speaker 2: this is the first visit by a k MT chair
52:49
Speaker 2: for a decade, and well, look the proof that the
52:55
Speaker 2: proof at the moment is the fact that the that
52:58
Speaker 2: the anti China proud if you will, on social media
53:02
Speaker 2: have totally lost the plot with her visit to to
53:07
Speaker 2: the mainland, calling her a traitor and all sorts of things,
53:11
Speaker 2: or of course giving us insights like well, you know,
53:14
Speaker 2: people need to understand that the full name of the
53:16
Speaker 2: Warming Dang is actually the Chinese National Party, so you know,
53:20
Speaker 2: of course they're going to be favorite favored towards China.
53:23
Speaker 3: So you know, I mean that that's sort of tells
53:25
Speaker 3: us a lot.
53:26
Speaker 2: Actually, that that that the old American establishment is is
53:31
Speaker 2: worried that that the world that they wanted to create
53:34
Speaker 2: and they slipping away from them.
53:40
Speaker 1: Yeah, I guess that's a silver lining out of this. Meanwhile,
53:46
Speaker 1: we just have to keep our keep our eyes open
53:50
Speaker 1: to see how how the rest of the story develop,
53:55
Speaker 1: whether there's a ceasefire wolf hold, whether the ceasefire will
53:59
Speaker 1: lead to more long term arrangement that will accommodate the
54:04
Speaker 1: security of wrong and and and the surrounding countries, and
54:11
Speaker 1: whether the world supply of energy can be restored somewhat
54:19
Speaker 1: to you know, it's not going to be restored to
54:21
Speaker 1: the pre world level for a long time because they're
54:24
Speaker 1: going to take half a year to a year just
54:28
Speaker 1: to repair all the damages and to get all the
54:31
Speaker 1: plans working again. But we need the world still need
54:37
Speaker 1: a buffer time, a buffer period to enable them to
54:41
Speaker 1: move on to the to the transition to to sustainable
54:45
Speaker 1: energy away from hydrocarbon. And yeah, and thank you very much,
54:52
Speaker 1: doctor Power for making your time to speak to us,
54:55
Speaker 1: you know, through your busy schedule. You know, somehow we
54:58
Speaker 1: made it work on the of the highest featuring and
55:02
Speaker 1: I wish you, uh bessly a luck on your travels.
55:06
Speaker 1: If people want to follow you where it will they go.
55:11
Speaker 3: Two places.
55:11
Speaker 2: Firstly, they can follow me at my substack Warricktale dot
55:15
Speaker 2: substack dot com. And the second one is that I
55:18
Speaker 2: have a much more modest YouTube channel t I O
55:22
Speaker 2: Talks with Warrickpale, where I tend to focus on speaking
55:26
Speaker 2: to global self scholars, so a little bit a little bit.
55:30
Speaker 3: Niche, but nonetheless I think that some people might find
55:33
Speaker 3: out of interest as well.
55:36
Speaker 1: Well, ladies.
55:37
Speaker 2: And one thing, one thing, one more thing, one more thing,
55:41
Speaker 2: because I'm hopeless of this. My latest book, which I
55:44
Speaker 2: think we touched on last time around, Samo Economics and
55:47
Speaker 2: a Time of Monsters, is available on Amazon as well.
55:52
Speaker 1: Go check out Doctor Power's book, check out his substack,
55:56
Speaker 1: and check out doctor powers YouTube channel. Every One Alice,
56:00
Speaker 1: thank you for listening. Until next time. Bye bye