Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / The Favorites - July NFL Mailbag

Transcript

The Favorites - July NFL Mailbag · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:00
Speaker 1: The Favorites podcast is presented by FanDuel Sports Book. There's
0:03
Speaker 1: no better place to make every moment more than with FanDuel.
0:07
Speaker 1: I love betting with fandul because they've got great odds
0:09
Speaker 1: and markets for MLB PG eight two or tennis, NFL
0:13
Speaker 1: futures and more. Plus their app is safe, easy to use,
0:16
Speaker 1: and when I win, I get paid out fast. If
0:19
Speaker 1: you're new, just download the vandel sports Book app to
0:21
Speaker 1: get started now and sign up with promo code Favorites
0:25
Speaker 1: so they know I sent you. You must be twenty
0:28
Speaker 1: one and over and present in select states only. Gambling
0:32
Speaker 1: problem called one hundred next step or text next step
0:35
Speaker 1: to five two in Arizona called one Gambler. Or visit
0:38
Speaker 1: FanDuel dot com slash r g in Colorado, Iowa, Michigan,
0:42
Speaker 1: New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Virginia one eight eight eight seven
0:45
Speaker 1: eight nine seven seven seven seven or visit CCPG dot
0:48
Speaker 1: org slash chat in Connecticut one eight hundred nine with
0:52
Speaker 1: it in Indiana one eight seven seven seven seven zero
0:56
Speaker 1: stop in Louisiana one eight seven seven Hope and hy
0:59
Speaker 1: or te Hope and why four seven three six nine
1:02
Speaker 1: in New York Tennessee. Redline is one eight eight nine
1:06
Speaker 1: one eight hundred five to two zero zero in Wyoming,
1:10
Speaker 1: or visit one eight hundred gambler dot net in West Virginia.
1:23
Speaker 1: Welcome to the favorites of the podcast from the Volume
1:26
Speaker 1: Podcast Network. I am Chad Mollman, Chief Content Officer of
1:30
Speaker 1: the Action Network, Big Big Show. Today. I am joined
1:36
Speaker 1: as always by my bff, my companion, my compadre from
1:41
Speaker 1: the Fighting City of Philadelphia, professional better Sigmon Hunter. Hello,
1:49
Speaker 1: what's going on? Brother dude? I know you're not feeling great.
1:52
Speaker 1: You're a champ. You and I spoke over the weekend.
1:55
Speaker 1: You were working out, you were running hills, you were
1:59
Speaker 1: in heat condition. One weekend on the shore, you're getting
2:04
Speaker 1: Know that throws you for a loop a little bit.
2:06
Speaker 1: When visited family up in Connecticut, they live on this
2:09
Speaker 1: lovely lake. Was based on a boat day. Drinking all day,
2:13
Speaker 1: I got either some poisoning, I was hungover, and I
2:15
Speaker 1: woke up Sunday morning like I literally couldn't get out
2:17
Speaker 1: of bed. I felt so weak and tired, and then yep,
2:21
Speaker 1: I don't even know how to describe it was just
2:22
Speaker 1: like twenty four hours of hell. I woke up Monday
2:24
Speaker 1: morning and I was like, all right, I gotta get
2:26
Speaker 1: tested for COVID. When it took the test, that's the positive.
2:30
Speaker 1: They got your boy chat again. I got COVID again.
2:32
Speaker 1: So yeah, Luckily it's before football. I'm starting to, you know,
2:36
Speaker 1: dive into football stuff. Anyway, that was kind of my
2:38
Speaker 1: last hurrah. So I don't know. It's kind of perfect
2:42
Speaker 1: time and I'm trying to be positive about it, but
2:43
Speaker 1: yet it sucks. I feel like ship right now. You
2:45
Speaker 1: gotta be positive. You gotta be up to missic the
2:47
Speaker 1: way you're setting positive. You said, Hohorah right there, it
2:50
Speaker 1: sounded like al Pacino from Scent of a Woman. That's
2:55
Speaker 1: what I'm going for. What channelmen? When is it? It's
3:00
Speaker 1: the fan Some guys run and some guys stay. What
3:05
Speaker 1: I share? What kind of a show are you guys
3:07
Speaker 1: putting on here? Today? We've got a couple of things
3:10
Speaker 1: going on today. Two very popular segments are coming back.
3:13
Speaker 1: One the mail Bag. We've done the mail Bag a
3:15
Speaker 1: couple of times. I think the questions have been outstanding,
3:18
Speaker 1: and so people in the past couple of days has
3:20
Speaker 1: sent in a bunch more questions, including some big media
3:23
Speaker 1: moves that have happened in the past forty eight hours.
3:28
Speaker 1: Some player movement. How that's impacting odds? What we should
3:31
Speaker 1: be thinking about it for the NFL Before we do that,
3:35
Speaker 1: We're gonna bring it back one of our brilliant predictive analysts,
3:41
Speaker 1: Nick Giffen, for the favorite segment of the fans, What
3:47
Speaker 1: are the Odds? Hey? Nick, how do you? How's it going?
3:51
Speaker 1: It's good? I will tell you this. This segment has
3:53
Speaker 1: become very popular. So um I was out this weekend
3:56
Speaker 1: on a Saturday night. Is that I was at a
3:59
Speaker 1: little bit of a shin big here in Weeha, West Herford, Connecticut.
4:03
Speaker 1: A buddy of mine came up to me and he's like,
4:06
Speaker 1: I listen to podcast that What are the Odds segment
4:09
Speaker 1: is so good? And then he started talking about the
4:12
Speaker 1: last one we did, about the two golfers who got
4:15
Speaker 1: the hole in one with the same ball at the
4:17
Speaker 1: same course on the same day. He like knew every detail,
4:21
Speaker 1: he remembered every number, he remembered the odds, he remembered
4:24
Speaker 1: the breakdown. Because he was explaining it to another buddy,
4:27
Speaker 1: He's like, dude, you gotta listen to this. You can't
4:29
Speaker 1: believe this segment so I'm excited to bring back Summer's
4:32
Speaker 1: favorite segment of all podcasts, which is what are the Odds?
4:35
Speaker 1: This is great? Oh yeah, I love doing this. How
4:38
Speaker 1: am I to this guy? What am I even doing
4:40
Speaker 1: your chat? Jesus, what do you mean? What about my segments? Oh?
4:44
Speaker 1: My god? Are you serious? Are you serious? Right now?
4:48
Speaker 1: That like you've blown up in two a gambling cultural phenomenon,
4:52
Speaker 1: and we have one segment that you're not the fucking
4:55
Speaker 1: centerpiece of and someone's not talking about you, and they
4:58
Speaker 1: talk about the podcast, and all of a sudden, you're
5:01
Speaker 1: whining about it. Yeah, I got a problem. Where's my
5:04
Speaker 1: story about this guy coming? You're saying I like your
5:06
Speaker 1: partner assignment where than I like you? That's what stories
5:08
Speaker 1: I want to hear from you chat, because those are
5:09
Speaker 1: my favorite stories. That happens like every day, that happens
5:12
Speaker 1: to God, it happens in my own house. I don't
5:17
Speaker 1: need parties I go to No. I agree with the guy.
5:20
Speaker 1: It's my favorite segment we do. I love it because
5:22
Speaker 1: I love I just love the stories. I love the
5:24
Speaker 1: math looks. It was that and it's becoming more and
5:27
Speaker 1: more relevant. Right there was the uh Andrew McCabe and
5:31
Speaker 1: James coney Comey from the FBI both were given these
5:34
Speaker 1: very sort of excruciating colon ascarp be like I R
5:39
Speaker 1: s audits. During the Trump administration, the New York Times
5:42
Speaker 1: Upshot column did a data and analytical examination of what
5:48
Speaker 1: are the odds that these two guys would get this
5:50
Speaker 1: kind of audit? It was like I sent it to
5:52
Speaker 1: Nick and and uh Sean Kroner. I think the odds
5:56
Speaker 1: were something like one and eighty two million, right, Yeah,
5:59
Speaker 1: just phenomenal odds there. So not impossible, but very improbable.
6:04
Speaker 1: You gotta it's something's fishing about it. I'm just gonna
6:08
Speaker 1: say something very very fishy. All right. So this this
6:12
Speaker 1: uh comes from a listener, a longtime listener named Josh.
6:19
Speaker 1: This is the European vacation addition. Here we go. A
6:24
Speaker 1: few years ago, I took a vacation to Europe by myself.
6:27
Speaker 1: It was the first time outside the US. One of
6:30
Speaker 1: the first stops was the Czech Republic. My first night
6:34
Speaker 1: in Prague, the craziest thing happened to me. I checked
6:38
Speaker 1: into where I was staying in the center of the city,
6:40
Speaker 1: that went out for dinner. Because I only speak English,
6:43
Speaker 1: I didn't bother to ask anyone for a suggestion on
6:45
Speaker 1: where to eat. Instead, I just picked a direction started
6:49
Speaker 1: walking until I saw a crowded restaurant that looked like
6:52
Speaker 1: it had a good menu, and I went inside. The
6:55
Speaker 1: restaurant had a capacity of about seventy people. I ordered
6:59
Speaker 1: a couple of beers some food. While I'm waiting, a
7:01
Speaker 1: group of six people come in sit down to the
7:03
Speaker 1: table next to me. Immediately I can tell their Americans.
7:07
Speaker 1: I started conversation with them. At the time, I was
7:10
Speaker 1: almost thirty and in the group of people, and the
7:13
Speaker 1: group of people were all in their mid fifties. They
7:16
Speaker 1: tell me they just finished a river cruise on the
7:18
Speaker 1: Danube and we're flying home out of Prague. They invite
7:20
Speaker 1: me to sit with them, and they asked me where
7:22
Speaker 1: I'm from. This is where things get a little crazy.
7:25
Speaker 1: Bump bump bum I told him. I told him I
7:28
Speaker 1: grew up in Texas in the late nineteen eighties. One
7:31
Speaker 1: guy asked me where. I told him El Paso. Until
7:33
Speaker 1: I was about ten, the guy tells me he used
7:36
Speaker 1: to live in Texas and had to travel to El
7:38
Speaker 1: Paso for work. I asked what he did for a
7:41
Speaker 1: living and he told me he sold medical equipment for
7:43
Speaker 1: cancer treatments. I was stunned. My mother was the head
7:47
Speaker 1: of radiology at a cancer treatment center in El Paso.
7:51
Speaker 1: We also have an unusual last name. To my knowledge,
7:55
Speaker 1: there are only fifteen people with our last name in America.
7:59
Speaker 1: So I tell him about my mother's job in O Passo.
8:01
Speaker 1: He naturally asked me for my mother's name, and when
8:04
Speaker 1: I tell him, he shouts, I remember Beth butter Wedge.
8:10
Speaker 1: The guy can't believe it, and we proceeded to call
8:13
Speaker 1: my mother from the restaurant and then reconnected right there
8:15
Speaker 1: at the table. It was wild that at the end
8:19
Speaker 1: of the story, Nick, I will ask you for the
8:21
Speaker 1: odds of something like this happening in a moment. Let me,
8:23
Speaker 1: of course bring it back to me just for a second.
8:27
Speaker 1: When I traveled in Europe as a college junior, went
8:31
Speaker 1: to Prague, one of my favorite cities in the world.
8:34
Speaker 1: It was beautiful, great place to travel alone. I gotta
8:37
Speaker 1: say two. I laughed because this guy at the time
8:40
Speaker 1: was in his thirties. Probably saw these people in their
8:42
Speaker 1: fifties coming off a river cruise. And I laughed because
8:46
Speaker 1: I watched a lot of PBS especially loved Downtown Abbey Laura.
8:51
Speaker 1: Lenny would always do a commercial and then a promo,
8:54
Speaker 1: and then there would always be a commercial for river
8:56
Speaker 1: cruises down the Danube. And I always said to my wife,
9:00
Speaker 1: it looks amazing, and she goes, that is for people
9:02
Speaker 1: who are so old, and said, I'm thinking about this guy,
9:05
Speaker 1: Jash butter Wedge, and the way he would perceive me
9:08
Speaker 1: is as a very old person who likes river cruises.
9:12
Speaker 1: M Nick, break it down, brother, alrighty, so uh we Unfortunately,
9:21
Speaker 1: I'm gonna throw a lot of cold water on this one.
9:24
Speaker 1: It's not going to be as long odds as it
9:26
Speaker 1: may sound. So first of all, let's all this spoils
9:30
Speaker 1: down to, is he ran into somebody that knows his mom.
9:33
Speaker 1: So that's what we need to figure out, right, I mean,
9:36
Speaker 1: that's what we need to figure out. What just sounds
9:39
Speaker 1: like you you meet this guy at a party, he
9:41
Speaker 1: tells you this story, and you're like, yeah, so somebody
9:44
Speaker 1: knows your mom in the world exactly exactly because of
9:47
Speaker 1: the week we had, I really thought were about that
9:49
Speaker 1: was Zack Wilson's story coming here. All right, So here's
9:55
Speaker 1: the thing He's we don't have a ton of details.
9:58
Speaker 1: We know he's in Central Europe in Prague, and this
10:00
Speaker 1: was not the first place he had visited on his trip,
10:04
Speaker 1: so there's some other variables like the length of time
10:06
Speaker 1: he was there, how many cities Z go to, etcetera,
10:09
Speaker 1: that could affect this. But what we're gonna stick with is,
10:12
Speaker 1: first of all, his mom is the head of radiology.
10:16
Speaker 1: That means she probably knows a lot more people than
10:19
Speaker 1: your average American. The average American knows about six hundred
10:22
Speaker 1: and eleven people according to a paper I found, and
10:25
Speaker 1: if she's in the ninety percentile for women, that means
10:28
Speaker 1: she knows probably one thousand, two hundred fifty people. Uh,
10:32
Speaker 1: and that's like knows. There are probably a lot more
10:36
Speaker 1: that she's met or things like that, which would go
10:38
Speaker 1: into the tens of thousands, but we'll stick with people
10:40
Speaker 1: she knows. Of those one thousand, two hundred fifty people,
10:44
Speaker 1: they've probably taken about six trips to Europe in that year.
10:49
Speaker 1: A lot are in the Zeros, but she's also in
10:52
Speaker 1: this demographic that is head of radiology, the skies and sales.
10:57
Speaker 1: These types of people are taking one to three trips
10:59
Speaker 1: to Europe per year, So we actually average a little
11:02
Speaker 1: more than one trip to Europe per year. I should
11:04
Speaker 1: say one trip abroad per year eleven and percent of
11:07
Speaker 1: those trips go to Central Europe. So that gives us
11:09
Speaker 1: about half a person going to Central Europe per day
11:13
Speaker 1: that this person's mom knows. So, uh, let's just say
11:18
Speaker 1: he's in Europe for ten days. That means two and
11:21
Speaker 1: a half uh, mom acquaintances per day will be in
11:25
Speaker 1: Central Europe. So if we take the Central Europe population
11:29
Speaker 1: of a hundred sixty five million, Uh, we can just say,
11:33
Speaker 1: you know, hundreds two point five divide a hundred sixty
11:36
Speaker 1: five million, But that also would be only if you
11:39
Speaker 1: ran into one person. Now he's going around, and you know,
11:42
Speaker 1: it sounds like he was actively seeking out Americans because
11:44
Speaker 1: you know, Americans sat next to me the first one
11:46
Speaker 1: I had seen. I went to talk to them. So
11:49
Speaker 1: let's say he meets I'm just gonna guess about twenty
11:52
Speaker 1: people per day over ten days. That means he's met
11:54
Speaker 1: two hundred people. So we need to take that two
11:56
Speaker 1: point five about a hundred sixty five million, and multiply
11:59
Speaker 1: by two hundred. We get one in three hundred thirty
12:02
Speaker 1: thousand chants that he would run into somebody who knows
12:08
Speaker 1: his mom. But this is like our conservative estimate because
12:14
Speaker 1: if it was his dad, it was his brother, his
12:17
Speaker 1: best friend, his his significant other. We get this story
12:21
Speaker 1: as well. So really the one ind is like our
12:25
Speaker 1: longest estimate. But there's a lot of reasons it's probably
12:28
Speaker 1: even shorter than this. And butter Wedge is a German
12:34
Speaker 1: name and Czech Republic is right next to Germany, so
12:39
Speaker 1: there's probably some underlying chop here, a lot of underlying
12:42
Speaker 1: chop factors going on here that would potentially shorten this
12:46
Speaker 1: even further. Um, you know, just things like being in
12:52
Speaker 1: similar social circles, you're more likely to travel abroad, and
12:54
Speaker 1: you're more likely to, uh, you know, travel to Europe,
12:58
Speaker 1: so that could influence the odds even more to come
13:00
Speaker 1: down from one and thirty thousand. I feel bad for
13:04
Speaker 1: Josh that he was living in this world where he
13:06
Speaker 1: thought this was an amazing, unbelievable coincidence. I feel bad
13:10
Speaker 1: for all of us that every single time we do
13:12
Speaker 1: this segment, I'm both amazed at the math you can
13:17
Speaker 1: put into it. That you've found a paper of how
13:19
Speaker 1: many people the average person knows, and you're able to
13:21
Speaker 1: use that as the lynchpin for the modeling you're doing,
13:26
Speaker 1: and also incredibly disappointed that some of these odds aren't
13:31
Speaker 1: longer and that the serendipity of the world is is
13:36
Speaker 1: ruined by the cold hard facts. Yeah, I'm Dr Buzzkill,
13:40
Speaker 1: as they say, but if you think about it, I
13:42
Speaker 1: think our Rick Flair's story ended up in the tens
13:45
Speaker 1: of thousands, maybe like twenty five thousand, So three thirty
13:48
Speaker 1: thousand for this one kind of makes sense because instead
13:51
Speaker 1: of like going to New York during WrestleMania, this guy
13:53
Speaker 1: is just randomly going to Prague, So we probably expect
13:56
Speaker 1: an order of magnitude ballpark higher chances. So I think
13:59
Speaker 1: this is right in that ballpark. The crazy thing about
14:02
Speaker 1: things that happened so infrequently, like one in a million
14:05
Speaker 1: or one in a billion, is there's still a billion
14:07
Speaker 1: opportunities for them to happen, so eventually they do. Yeah,
14:10
Speaker 1: and that is my friends, while we bet big dogs
14:13
Speaker 1: exactly by the way, Nick Giffen, another masterful performance for
14:19
Speaker 1: what are the Odds? Our favorite news segment from the Favorites.
14:23
Speaker 1: Thanks for coming on, brother, thanks for having me. As
14:25
Speaker 1: always looking forward to the next one. Go Yard All
14:28
Speaker 1: summer long with five dollar Dinger Tuesdays on Vanduel sports Book.
14:32
Speaker 1: This season, all customers will get five dollars for every
14:34
Speaker 1: home run hit by both teams when you place a
14:37
Speaker 1: twenty five dollar to hit a home run wager on
14:40
Speaker 1: Tuesday MLB games. And the best part about Dinger Tuesdays
14:45
Speaker 1: is even if your bet loses, FanDuel, We'll pay you
14:48
Speaker 1: five dollars for every home run this week. I like
14:50
Speaker 1: the New York Yankees at home against the Cincinnati Reds. Duh.
14:54
Speaker 1: There's no better place to bet America's pastime than on
14:56
Speaker 1: America's number one sports book. Head over to your fandue accounted,
14:59
Speaker 1: down load the FanDuel sports Book app, and sign up
15:02
Speaker 1: using promo code favorites to pick your home run hitter.
15:06
Speaker 1: That's promo code favorites must be twenty one and over
15:09
Speaker 1: in present in select states. Bonus issued as non withdrawal
15:13
Speaker 1: site credit that expires in seven days. Max bonus twenty
15:16
Speaker 1: five dollars. Restrictions apply. Gambling problem called one eight hundred
15:20
Speaker 1: next step or text next step to five three three
15:23
Speaker 1: four two in Arizona one eight hundred gambler or visit
15:26
Speaker 1: FanDuel dot com slash RG in Colorado, Indiana, New Jersey,
15:30
Speaker 1: and Virginia one eight eight seven eight nine seven seven
15:33
Speaker 1: seven seven, or visit CCPG dot org. Slash chat in
15:38
Speaker 1: Connecticut one eight hundred to seven zero seven one seven
15:42
Speaker 1: for confidential help in Michigan called the Tennessee Redline one
15:45
Speaker 1: eight hundred eight eight nine nine seven eight nine, or
15:47
Speaker 1: visit one eight hundred gambler dot net in West Virginia. Alright,
15:54
Speaker 1: as promised, we're going into the mail bag first one
15:57
Speaker 1: number one. A lot to discuss Brian in Charlotte Simon.
16:02
Speaker 1: We've talked about this a lot, but based on their
16:04
Speaker 1: offensive weapons in previous QB situation, is Baker Mayfield an
16:08
Speaker 1: enormously impactful addition to Carolina? Or do I sound hopelessly naive?
16:16
Speaker 1: I have some very specific thoughts on this. I'll keep
16:19
Speaker 1: it quick that I would say, no, that we know
16:22
Speaker 1: how it is. In the NFL, there's might be fifteen
16:23
Speaker 1: really good quarterbacks. The rest are kind of all junk
16:25
Speaker 1: and trying to figure it out. Apparently Baker doesn't work
16:29
Speaker 1: really hard, doesn't study film just a lot. You're in
16:32
Speaker 1: a lot of bad stuff come out of Cleveland about
16:33
Speaker 1: him right now. So to me, Carolina, you're hoping to
16:36
Speaker 1: get a good draft pick next year. It's a really
16:38
Speaker 1: good draft class. Baker's a nice lynchpin, and it's also
16:42
Speaker 1: you have nothing to lose. I think you guys give
16:43
Speaker 1: a fourth round pick pain the five million. Either he
16:46
Speaker 1: gets in the playoffs this year and he earns a job,
16:47
Speaker 1: or who cares, he's terrible, you move on. So my
16:51
Speaker 1: my take on this is that it's not impactful for
16:54
Speaker 1: the offense. But I do think it's impactful for the
16:57
Speaker 1: defense because you are getting a quarterback who is better
17:00
Speaker 1: than Sam Donald, who will likely keep his offense on
17:03
Speaker 1: the field for another series or two per game. That
17:06
Speaker 1: will decrease the number of plays that Carolina's defense is
17:09
Speaker 1: on the field. And to be honest, their stats last
17:12
Speaker 1: year we're not very good. But if you take them
17:13
Speaker 1: out of the context of having to play so many
17:16
Speaker 1: plays and here just for that, their defense was actually
17:19
Speaker 1: much better. So their defense can improve just by virtue
17:22
Speaker 1: of having Baker being an above average quarterback versus Sam Donald.
17:28
Speaker 1: That's my take. I would bet I would bet Carolina
17:31
Speaker 1: over with with Baker Mayfield. That's all I'm saying. Corey
17:35
Speaker 1: and Quincy Illinois did you want to say something. I mean,
17:40
Speaker 1: it's too early. I'll get into it once. It's August
17:43
Speaker 1: with you on that one, all right, Corey and Quincy Illinois.
17:46
Speaker 1: It's July and Green Bay's white Oltcors is out, Corpus,
17:49
Speaker 1: Alan Lazar, Christian Wattson, Sammy Watkins, and Randall Cobb washed up.
17:54
Speaker 1: There's still minus one seventy to win a division. Is
17:56
Speaker 1: the NFC North really this bad? Yes? I mean the
18:01
Speaker 1: simple answer, Uh, you think you're looking at Green Bead
18:04
Speaker 1: the wrong way though. They're moving into a position of
18:07
Speaker 1: a very ball dominant team. They're gonna run the ball
18:10
Speaker 1: and they're gonna play amazing defense, and they have one
18:12
Speaker 1: of the most accurate, smart quarterbacks that's ever played football. Like, literally,
18:16
Speaker 1: this man does not turn the ball over. I know
18:18
Speaker 1: we can make it's a big dealy lost Avanta Adams,
18:21
Speaker 1: Like on third downs, that's gonna be a big deal.
18:23
Speaker 1: But I don't know. To to me, it doesn't make
18:27
Speaker 1: It's not that crazy. They're that number with what you're
18:29
Speaker 1: looking at offense. I just think they're moving into a
18:31
Speaker 1: different style. It's a different time in Roger's career. So no,
18:34
Speaker 1: it's a it's a fair number. To me, I think
18:36
Speaker 1: it's a if I put into my model, I might
18:39
Speaker 1: have it at minus one fifty and it's only bump
18:41
Speaker 1: at the minus one seventy just because people have betted
18:43
Speaker 1: up to that number. Would you, I know we've talked
18:47
Speaker 1: about this, uh Vikings value on them to win the
18:53
Speaker 1: division instead of betting the Packers. No, because I mean
18:57
Speaker 1: I think the Vikings do have value, but they won't
18:59
Speaker 1: get a dime for me. I do like what they're
19:01
Speaker 1: what I've read about the Vikings of the news, like
19:03
Speaker 1: the new head coach, plus three and vandal. If you
19:07
Speaker 1: do like the Vikings win this division, I just wouldn't touch.
19:10
Speaker 1: I just think it should be closer, maybe plus four
19:12
Speaker 1: or plus four fifty, just because Kirk, Like I don't
19:15
Speaker 1: care if they had this high flying offense, it's still
19:17
Speaker 1: Kirk Cousins. So to me, we talked about a chat.
19:20
Speaker 1: I love the value of Detroit. You could have got them,
19:22
Speaker 1: I think eleven o one. Now they're down to nine
19:26
Speaker 1: to one on Vanduel to win this division. I still
19:28
Speaker 1: think it's good value on a Detroit team that you
19:31
Speaker 1: can look on paper. Guys, they actually have them one
19:32
Speaker 1: of the most expensive offenses and all football. I know
19:35
Speaker 1: it doesn't mean much, but at least you know they've
19:37
Speaker 1: spent the money and they have the offensive weapons compared
19:39
Speaker 1: to the Screen Bay team that they're putting their money
19:41
Speaker 1: into that defense after giving Aaron Rodgers fifty million per year,
19:46
Speaker 1: uh Meryl. Matthew Berry yesterday announced that he was leaving ESPN.
19:54
Speaker 1: It has not been announced where he's going yet. Speculation,
19:57
Speaker 1: according to Andrew marsh end in The New York Post,
20:00
Speaker 1: is that he's signing a deal with NBC. Merril eight
20:04
Speaker 1: eight asks, is Matthew Berry leaving ESPN a big deal?
20:09
Speaker 1: Should I be feeling something about this? Are either of you? Simon?
20:14
Speaker 1: Depends what Matthew means to. I mean, I I love
20:17
Speaker 1: Matthew Berry for what he was where you know, I
20:20
Speaker 1: was just really get into fantasy when I was younger,
20:23
Speaker 1: and I think it might have been oh, seven oh eight,
20:25
Speaker 1: when I was like getting out of high school. I
20:26
Speaker 1: found his podcast um with a guy named Nate Rabbits,
20:29
Speaker 1: who um, he's a paper pusher over the ESPN, And
20:33
Speaker 1: I loved that combo of Nate Rabbits just shifting on
20:37
Speaker 1: Matthew Berry because Matthew was such a cocky ship head,
20:40
Speaker 1: but it was just a really funny combo and Matthew,
20:42
Speaker 1: you know, and his prime was really good at fantasy
20:45
Speaker 1: All these years later. Yeah, I don't know if I'd
20:47
Speaker 1: take all Matthew's fantasy advice, but I think for what
20:50
Speaker 1: he's done for the industry, how can you not say
20:53
Speaker 1: he is the godfather of fantasy football in America. He
20:56
Speaker 1: changed everything, he brought it to the main screen of ESPN.
20:59
Speaker 1: So yeah, I'm I'm a big Matthew Berry fan. Again,
21:02
Speaker 1: not for his advice, but for what he's done for
21:05
Speaker 1: the industry. I just think you can't talk fantasy football
21:08
Speaker 1: in America dot matt mentioning the magic talented Mr Rhodo
21:11
Speaker 1: Matthew Berry. So it's funny you mentioned Nate, who I've
21:15
Speaker 1: known forever and when I was at ESPN um uh
21:20
Speaker 1: and I first took over ESPN Digital uh, Nate reported
21:24
Speaker 1: to me, and then then he took on other roles
21:27
Speaker 1: and and bigger jobs within the universe. And now he
21:30
Speaker 1: actually has a lot of the then more. But my
21:35
Speaker 1: old job now is nature job plus other stuff that
21:38
Speaker 1: he's doing. I said, he is a weasel. He did that.
21:44
Speaker 1: That was his role on the show. Right. Um, but look,
21:49
Speaker 1: Matthew Berry leaving ESPN is a big deal because of
21:53
Speaker 1: everything Simon just said. He created the industry from a
22:01
Speaker 1: broad point of view. He pushed ESPN further into fantasy
22:05
Speaker 1: by force of his personality and by force of the
22:08
Speaker 1: quality of the content he was doing, and by the
22:10
Speaker 1: audience he was gaining. Right, Like the reason I mean
22:14
Speaker 1: it was about him and Joe Rogan, Like, I feel
22:16
Speaker 1: like there's no podcast and no seven. I just think
22:19
Speaker 1: back to that time. You download it right off the internet.
22:21
Speaker 1: There wasn't an app for podcasts, and like, by just
22:25
Speaker 1: but also digitally, the audience he built forced ESPN to
22:29
Speaker 1: pay attention to it. Right. ESPN now does fantasy shows
22:32
Speaker 1: on ESPN two. Matthews got his own show on ESPN plus,
22:36
Speaker 1: Like his column was one of the biggest things ESPN
22:39
Speaker 1: would do every single season, his podcast most downloaded podcast
22:42
Speaker 1: ESPN does. Like, of course, it's a big deal when
22:46
Speaker 1: a guy of that caliber of talent decides to leave
22:50
Speaker 1: what is the biggest brand in sports media? Um, The
22:56
Speaker 1: flip side is the majority of ESPN's fantasy business is
23:02
Speaker 1: built through its product and people signing up and and
23:06
Speaker 1: what they're doing in the fantasy app to manage leagues,
23:09
Speaker 1: to build teams, etcetera, etcetera, etcetera. It's got a really
23:13
Speaker 1: healthy fantasy business that fifteen years after Matthew is there,
23:16
Speaker 1: he's at the tip of the sphere of I think
23:18
Speaker 1: the fantasy business will end up being fine. Um, you
23:22
Speaker 1: know the other questions that that that Merrow eighty eight
23:27
Speaker 1: acts asks or should I be feeling something about this?
23:31
Speaker 1: Only if you only want to go to ESPN to
23:34
Speaker 1: get Matthew Berry content. If you want to go to
23:36
Speaker 1: ESPN to do other fantasy stuff and you still want
23:39
Speaker 1: to get Matthew Berry content. Look, it's not like two
23:43
Speaker 1: thousand seven. You can get Matthew Berry through a newsletter,
23:49
Speaker 1: his Fantasy Life newsletter. You can get him on Instagram,
23:52
Speaker 1: you can get him on Twitter. Wherever he ends next,
23:54
Speaker 1: you will be able to get him. So um, as
23:57
Speaker 1: a fan, you should be thinking, I'm still gonna get
24:00
Speaker 1: Matthew Berry. And he's such a nice guy. Reach out
24:03
Speaker 1: to him. I mean literally, that guy apparently reaches out
24:06
Speaker 1: to all of his fans. He's just a really good guy.
24:08
Speaker 1: So don't you'll be all right? He's gonna be around.
24:10
Speaker 1: Matthew's not going where he's a Hall of Famer. It's true,
24:13
Speaker 1: totally true. Uh, Tony Hawkeye is Acre Stadium in Pittsburgh
24:22
Speaker 1: now the worst name for an NFL field? Holy fuck? Yes,
24:27
Speaker 1: I don't even know what I'm saying it right, I
24:29
Speaker 1: don't know what that is. I don't know what this
24:31
Speaker 1: business does. It almost sounds like something you should see
24:35
Speaker 1: in The Simpsons or South Park. Yeah, I mean for
24:38
Speaker 1: someone like me, I feel offended, offended that they're making
24:41
Speaker 1: people that dyslexy like I do even read that word.
24:44
Speaker 1: I can't read it. I mean until Chad just pronounced it,
24:46
Speaker 1: I had no idea what he even sounded like. It's Hinesfield.
24:49
Speaker 1: I'll call it Hinesfield. I mean I probably called the
24:53
Speaker 1: new Lincoln Financial Field. I probably called it the Vet
24:57
Speaker 1: for a good ten years before I started on it.
24:59
Speaker 1: The link even that just as lazy. So I just
25:02
Speaker 1: think as fans were stubborn and it's hard to adjust
25:04
Speaker 1: to new new names of stadiums. Uh Frank, Frank twenty
25:09
Speaker 1: Jimmy g will account for twenty seven million dollar salary
25:12
Speaker 1: cap hit if he's on the Niners roster this season.
25:15
Speaker 1: Handicap the odds he's cut Trader to their starting or
25:18
Speaker 1: the starting QB for them this season. Um, I would
25:22
Speaker 1: say handicap the odds that he's not on the roster
25:27
Speaker 1: versus on the roster. I'd put it out like minus
25:30
Speaker 1: five is not on the roster. I mean you traded
25:34
Speaker 1: away multiple first round picks to move up to take Trey.
25:38
Speaker 1: Trey has shown you he's a great athlete. Sure, he's
25:41
Speaker 1: not the most accurate guy. Last year he was a rookie.
25:43
Speaker 1: Like it's it's really hard to go from D one,
25:45
Speaker 1: Double A to the NFL. It's a big adjustment. So
25:49
Speaker 1: to me, they watched tray Lands every day. It's kind
25:53
Speaker 1: of a thing where you know, not that I'm saying
25:55
Speaker 1: this is a John Mtch's job, but it's a big deal.
25:57
Speaker 1: Like Jimmy G got him to an NFC championship last year. Again,
26:00
Speaker 1: that wasn't all because of Jimmy G, but he was
26:02
Speaker 1: a part of it. He made big throws down the
26:04
Speaker 1: stretch last year for them. So I am all four
26:07
Speaker 1: shifting on Jimmy G just because I think he was
26:09
Speaker 1: always overrated playing one of the best run blocking schemes
26:12
Speaker 1: of all football. He's a pretty good quarterback. They're making
26:16
Speaker 1: a big move here. They gotta get him off the roster.
26:18
Speaker 1: They can't. They can't keep this going. And think Trey
26:21
Speaker 1: Lance is gonna lead this team where Jimmy is just
26:23
Speaker 1: gonna be ahead of him right now. Like Jimmy has
26:25
Speaker 1: been the league a lot longer, he knows this offense
26:27
Speaker 1: a lot better, like he's been with Kyle Shannon a
26:29
Speaker 1: long time. So to me, it just makes sense. Like
26:32
Speaker 1: you hear the Seattle rumors, you know, just just anything
26:35
Speaker 1: would make sense, even my Ami, I know everyone's about
26:37
Speaker 1: tour right now. Health there. We already read it's it's
26:41
Speaker 1: a make or break here for twa and that that town.
26:43
Speaker 1: I don't hate bringing in Jimmy G being in a
26:45
Speaker 1: backup in that that city for toa. So to me,
26:48
Speaker 1: I just can't see him lasting on this roster headed
26:50
Speaker 1: into the season. Yeah, I I think minus five hundred
26:54
Speaker 1: is actually a little a little short, to be honest.
26:59
Speaker 1: Uh loves him, That's my whole thing though, Kyle Kyle
27:02
Speaker 1: like legit likes Jimmy like yeah, but they're just they're
27:05
Speaker 1: not going into like they're not going to the season
27:07
Speaker 1: with Jimmy G as the starting quarterback. They're not going
27:10
Speaker 1: to go into the season into the season with him
27:12
Speaker 1: on the roster, they haven't found takers for it yet.
27:14
Speaker 1: They're trying to avoid sending him to Seattle. So I
27:17
Speaker 1: think what they're really hoping for is training camp comes.
27:19
Speaker 1: There's always quarterbacks getting hurt and some team is desperate
27:23
Speaker 1: and they make it play for Jimmy g once training
27:25
Speaker 1: camp starts. Um Dan Underscore the Underscore Man ESPN or
27:31
Speaker 1: the story this week about the Ravens Calais campbell passion
27:34
Speaker 1: for poker and his participation in this year's World Series
27:37
Speaker 1: of Poker based on just their public personas, who do
27:41
Speaker 1: you think with the would be the best and worst
27:43
Speaker 1: NFL poker players? Well, we all know the best liar
27:48
Speaker 1: is Aaron Rodgers, so I guess you would probably be
27:50
Speaker 1: the best, right, I mean, that's a lot of poker,
27:53
Speaker 1: Like you have to have a good poker face. He
27:55
Speaker 1: got us all like none of us knew, like he
27:57
Speaker 1: was so smart with his wording, so quick with what
28:00
Speaker 1: he said. Again, he got us good for what was
28:03
Speaker 1: that three months? So yeah, I would say Rogers would
28:05
Speaker 1: be the best. Um, who do you think the worst liars?
28:09
Speaker 1: I guess he's at a league. I'd say Antonio Brown though,
28:11
Speaker 1: like that man just had no off switch, Like he
28:14
Speaker 1: just spoke whatever came to his mind at all times,
28:16
Speaker 1: which is the worst thing to be in poker. Um,
28:20
Speaker 1: it's hard to say who's left in the league that's
28:22
Speaker 1: still that crazy, that wouldn't shut up. Um. I was thinking,
28:26
Speaker 1: I mean, I couldn't think of anybody. Now. I was thinking,
28:29
Speaker 1: maybe it's funny you went to Liars. I went to
28:34
Speaker 1: Liars and smart like Rodgers. But my point is, like
28:39
Speaker 1: I immediately thought emotion in this spot, and so I
28:45
Speaker 1: watched the match with Brady and Rogers versus Alan and Mahomes,
28:50
Speaker 1: and Patrick Mahomes was like so cool and relaxed. He
28:57
Speaker 1: was popping open beers, having a good time, him never
29:01
Speaker 1: sweating it, knowing he could just knock the funk out
29:04
Speaker 1: of the ball when he wanted to. Was making clutch shots,
29:08
Speaker 1: hitting clutch putts. Um. I also thought Aaron Rodgers, just
29:13
Speaker 1: because the guy is seems to be unflappable, but there
29:16
Speaker 1: are moments where he gets too emotional and takes things personally.
29:19
Speaker 1: I don't think Mahomes does that, and so from an
29:22
Speaker 1: emotional makeup point of view, it's hard not to argue
29:27
Speaker 1: my Homes and obviously we're just talking about quarterbacks, but
29:30
Speaker 1: in the moment, those are the people that need to
29:32
Speaker 1: have the ball. Mahomes, I thought about Brady for sure.
29:36
Speaker 1: Those are the two people that I thought might be
29:38
Speaker 1: the best the worst. I was also thinking emotion, and
29:42
Speaker 1: like I was trying to think it for me. When
29:44
Speaker 1: you're thinking emotion, it always goes to wide receivers or cornerbacks,
29:47
Speaker 1: right Garrett, Like he's the only guy I could think of,
29:50
Speaker 1: that bashed guy in the head with a helmet, Like
29:52
Speaker 1: who would lose their cool? Like that's what like you
29:54
Speaker 1: were saying, like who's the craziest? But I couldn't get
29:57
Speaker 1: past a B. Like a B you don't get crazier.
30:00
Speaker 1: He's the craziest player ever. We've never had a guy
30:02
Speaker 1: take off their stuff and you jumping jacks and waved
30:05
Speaker 1: the people out the fields like he did the meadow lands.
30:07
Speaker 1: So it's just a B is the craziest. I would
30:10
Speaker 1: also go with like is it Jalen Ramsey or is
30:13
Speaker 1: it a very sort of emotional cornerback Eli Apple? Dude,
30:19
Speaker 1: Eli Apple was clutching and pulling and do whatever you
30:22
Speaker 1: could when the pressure got at the worst, right yeah,
30:24
Speaker 1: but I mean France, Dame. He's going against like the
30:26
Speaker 1: best receivers in the world, so well he might be
30:29
Speaker 1: going against the best poker players in the world. And
30:31
Speaker 1: you know Eli Apple versus phill Ivy. Come on, all right,
30:34
Speaker 1: is there a player worth betting for m v P
30:39
Speaker 1: right now at higher than fifteen to one odds. Let's
30:43
Speaker 1: see we're talking about you've kind of missed a boat, buddy.
30:48
Speaker 1: We're like, you want to bet these things in February,
30:52
Speaker 1: March April. You want to get our early jump on
30:54
Speaker 1: the books, and you're you're projecting out so hurts. I
30:57
Speaker 1: think he was eighty to one. I'm looking at Vandal
30:59
Speaker 1: right now, he's twenty five to one. That's tough. That
31:02
Speaker 1: that's really tough. You went from one tray lands a
31:05
Speaker 1: hundred fift one down to and a lot of books.
31:08
Speaker 1: Now he's down a forty one on Fandel again, you
31:11
Speaker 1: miss big numbers on that one. We're just going strict value.
31:16
Speaker 1: You know, Lamar Jackson one playing for his contract. He's
31:19
Speaker 1: already won an m v P before. That's that's a
31:22
Speaker 1: fair price for a former m v P and a
31:24
Speaker 1: guy who had his team as a one seed last
31:26
Speaker 1: year before he got hurt and his team went one
31:27
Speaker 1: of four down the stretch. Yeah, that's the kind of
31:29
Speaker 1: thing you're looking for. You're looking at short odds with
31:32
Speaker 1: guys who are bumped down a little bit just because
31:34
Speaker 1: people are lowing them because of what happened last year.
31:37
Speaker 1: Wats is a really good one for that. Where guys
31:39
Speaker 1: above him, you're not getting any good value on Justin
31:42
Speaker 1: Herbert right, like he's been bet up now. He's ten
31:45
Speaker 1: to one. That's no good. Russell Wilson twelve to one,
31:48
Speaker 1: that's that's too much for a guy. It's nuver one
31:50
Speaker 1: m v P before moved all the way up there.
31:52
Speaker 1: So you know, I've had a couple of pros talk
31:54
Speaker 1: about mac Jones. I like the way his body looks
31:57
Speaker 1: and everything like that. I just don't know if mac
31:59
Speaker 1: Jones's weapons around him. Again, it's four to one, that's
32:01
Speaker 1: good odds. He needs weapons, right, Like, who's Mac Jones
32:05
Speaker 1: throwing fifty touchdowns to when you look at that team, like,
32:08
Speaker 1: that's what you need to do to win m v
32:09
Speaker 1: P in this league, Like, you gotta be incredible. So
32:12
Speaker 1: to me, if I'm just going pure upside, guys, you know,
32:15
Speaker 1: way down the list me and Chad talked about. I
32:18
Speaker 1: like Trevor Lawrence. See he's get a whole new offensive scheme,
32:21
Speaker 1: number one pick, second year leap. I know it sounds crazy.
32:25
Speaker 1: You saw it happen with Patrick Mahomes, right, We saw
32:28
Speaker 1: my homes come in and be this incredible kid one
32:31
Speaker 1: MVP right, he was fifty two one that year he
32:33
Speaker 1: want to MVP for the Chiefs the year lamore one.
32:35
Speaker 1: His second year he was fifty to one and that
32:37
Speaker 1: Ravens offense. So it sounds crazy right now we're talking
32:40
Speaker 1: in July. That's what you're looking for. You're looking for
32:42
Speaker 1: a second, third year quarterback to pop. That's a crazy
32:45
Speaker 1: long odds. We've seen it happen before, so looking for
32:48
Speaker 1: some craziness. Trevor Lawrence and he had the one. If
32:50
Speaker 1: you're a Jets fan, I would not put a single
32:52
Speaker 1: dime on Zack Wilson, but I get it. If you're
32:55
Speaker 1: a Jets fan, you want to believe in this kid.
32:57
Speaker 1: So to me, look at these really long odds because
33:00
Speaker 1: that's what you want to invest your money. You don't
33:01
Speaker 1: have these short odds, So the shorts I'd go on
33:05
Speaker 1: a little more. Twenty one of them. Are the Ravens
33:07
Speaker 1: still twenty to win the Super Bowl? I know they're
33:09
Speaker 1: getting a lot of heat, a lot of sort of
33:10
Speaker 1: smart conversation about them. I like your Jalen Hurts conversation
33:14
Speaker 1: as well. That wraps it up for this one, Simon.
33:17
Speaker 1: This has been the favorites from the Volume podcast network.
33:21
Speaker 1: I want to thank Nick Giffen for coming on to
33:23
Speaker 1: talk about what are the odds. I want to thank
33:25
Speaker 1: Simon Hunter for battling his COVID his son poisoning is hangover.
33:29
Speaker 1: I want to thank Matt Mitchell as always, download us
33:32
Speaker 1: from Apple podcasts, from Spotify, wherever you get your podcast,
33:35
Speaker 1: rate review, subscribe to give us five stars, say whatever
33:38
Speaker 1: you want and the feedback. Feedback is a gift. Until
33:40
Speaker 1: next time. I love you,