Latest / Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast / Felix Prehn - Do These 3 Things NOW to Not Go BROKE in the 2025 Crash + Stock Market News 22 April 2025

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Felix Prehn - Do These 3 Things NOW to Not Go BROKE in the 2025 Crash + Stock Market News 22 April 2025 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:01
  Speaker 1: Felix and, of course, winston here, and we're about to tell you why things are about to get better.
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Two how to spot opportunities coming from the trade deals that are inevitably going to be made.
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: And then I'll give you three steps that every successful investor takes and no, it's not what you think and then we'll actually walk you through together through a nice Q&A.
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: We'll do a chart review of every major stock out there, so I shall share my screen with you so you can see what I'm looking at.
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: Winston seems pretty chilled, don't you think why?
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: Because the pre-market is actually reasonably green.
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: We're getting a little bit of a bounce after yesterday's massacre.
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: I'll show it to you.
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: You don't need to avert your eyes this morning.
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: This is pre-market.
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: Everything is pretty much up.
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: Verizon I was going to say shit the bed, but that would be impolite.
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: That's pretty much what their earnings were, though this morning.
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: Rtx is also down a lot.
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: I have no idea why.
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: We'll look that up in a second.
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: And, of course, tesla is reporting after hours today.
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: But yeah, overall, reasonably stable morning, with the big boys jumping up about a percentage point, not quite making up what they lost yesterday, but at least it's a step, isn't it?
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: So, good morning everybody.
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: Good morning everybody.
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: And if you are feeling a little teeny, tiny bit optimistic, put a one in the chat down below.
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: If you're feeling somewhat suicidal, put a two down below, and no, I will not take responsibility for your mental state.
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: Winston, on the other hand, might, because he's very good at that.
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: He's very good at that.
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: He's dreaming of the boy he just chased around the park while woofing loudly.
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: I'm seeing some ones here.
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: I'm seeing some bonds.
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: Glad to look at Northrop in a moment.
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: Let's start off with just a little bit of the panic.
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: The dollar index has found a what?
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: Yes, a death cross, which of course, is cheery news, which means the dollar is likely to go much, much lower, at least it usually does.
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: Now, is that actually a good thing or a bad thing?
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: Well, if you're an American and you wish to go on a nice holiday into Europe, okay, it's a bad thing.
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: But other than that, for American businesses, well, you might want to export some more because your goods just got cheaper.
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: So, from my point of view, it helps.
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: Now, if you're an importer, then it doesn't make things better because you're paying with less valuable dollar for other currencies, although, having said that, much of international trade is actually dollar denominated, though at some point suppliers will raise their prices, right.
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: So that's not the end of the world.
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: Quite frankly, I think Trump wants a weaker dollar.
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: I think that's not the end of the world.
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: Quite frankly, I think Trump wants a weaker dollar.
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: I think that's kind of part of it, to be honest.
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: So he's getting it.
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: Okay, let's give you some good news then.
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: I give you two pieces of good news and might want to take a screenshot of this or write it down.
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: According to Goldman Sachs, the loveliest, fluffiest, nicest investment bankers in the world.
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: According to Goldman Sachs, that is, the market is going to buy, and these are CTAs, which stands for algo fund.
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: So basically, a computer that just buys on certain rules that somebody programmed in, and if the market's flat, the computers are going to buy about 5 billion.
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: If the market goes up, the computers are going to buy about 7 billion.
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: If the market goes down over the next week, the computers are going to buy about $5 billion.
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: If the market goes up, the computers are going to buy about $7 billion.
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: If the market goes down over the next week, the computers are going to buy about $3 billion.
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: So they're going to buy, buy or buy.
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: I could have said that in more of a shorter way, so that's kind of good news.
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: There is a second piece of good news that will also help stabilize markets a little bit.
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: The buyback blackout period ends Friday.
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: What does that mean, winston, would you care to explain?
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: Is he asleep?
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: No, I think he's still awake.
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: It basically means that companies that buy their own shares which is what they do are back.
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: Starting Friday They'll probably be back at about $3 billion a day and then that's going to increase to the more bigly number of six billion a day.
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: I had a comment on a video today and somebody said you lost me at bigly.
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: I couldn't quite figure out whether the person had a sense of humor or really lacked one.
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: Um, if you're one of those, please let me know down below.
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: I hope it's the.
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: The prior be a terrible state of affair if your sense of humor was worse than that of a german.
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: So it's good right, because money flowing in, supportive.
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: We get a little bit of the cta money flowing in, so it's somewhat supportive.
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: So could just calm things down a little bit, bring down the, the fear in the volatility, the vix here, which is still trading at 31 80.
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: It's now the.
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: How many days are we above, above 30?
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: Now in a row, 10 bars.
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: It's two weeks.
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: Two weeks above 30.
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: Pretty unusual stuff.
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: So there's definitely some uncertainty out there.
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: So what am I going to say to you?
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: You want to know what to buy.
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: You know what to do.
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: You got to go and learn the rules, right, how do you learn the rules that every successful investor in the world understands?
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: Well, I give them to you for free.
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: Felixfrenzorg slash, get free.
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: And that means get free, as in, you get free, not get it for free, although I suppose both applies.
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: So if you want to actually learn what to do, rather than asking me, I'll give you the rules.
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: I think it's much, much better to learn to fish than to be given a free fish.
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: I'm not a huge fan of that sort of level of charity.
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: Much better to teach people skills.
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: Now, what's the opportunity?
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: Well, trade deals will be done.
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: Right, the US is the biggest consumer out there.
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: So when your biggest consumer goes on some sort of tantrum slash strike, you either lose all the business or you maintain some of the business by coming to a deal that you don't really, really love.
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: Right and we'll look at some of the stocks just in a moment, guys.
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: Um, so india is under pressure to give full act.
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: India, by the way, is just like the most tariff country in the world.
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: Like I have another business.
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: Uh, we make wine.
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: We sell some of that to india.
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: I think we pay 150 tariffs or something insane.
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: It took us about 12 months to get the products approved and the brands registered.
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: You need to get registrations in, not just at the government level but in every single state, and then ask the chieftain on every street, sort of thing.
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: It's an insane process designed entirely to keep the pesky foreigners out of the market, which is understandable.
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: I mean, I understand it.
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: You know, winston understands it.
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: A lot of countries do that.
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: Now the US has joined that sort of Bataan Republic style of pay-to-eat business.
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: But if they manage to get India to drop some of those rules, at least for American companies, there could be a bigly sales opportunity there.
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: Now I use that special word again who for?
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: Well, amazon, walmart, right, anybody like that?
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: And guess who Trump was meeting with?
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: Was it today or was it yesterday?
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: The CEOs of Amazon and Walmart, who are basically saying we don't like the tariffs.
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: And then he's saying but what if I delivered India to you?
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: And they're like, hmm, let's think about that one, right, so it could be an opportunity to get US e-commerce in there.
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: And then of course, there are also others you could manufacture there.
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: So I think a lot of the goal is just to shift manufacturing and shift a lot of this stuff to India, and I think that's also the promise to India.
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: It's like well, you give us access, we're going to give you Apple's manufacturing that's going to move there.
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: We're going to give you Tesla's some of Tesla's China manufacturing, because Tesla used to make a lot of cars or car components in China for US and European markets, particularly so they can shift some of that stuff over.
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: It's kind of a fair deal, right.
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: So that's an opportunity.
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: Another opportunity is solar, and I've hated US.
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: I still hate solar, by the way, not as a technology.
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: I'm actually going to put some on a house but it's entirely dependent on government incentives and subsidies and tax breaks.
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: Otherwise the maths doesn't really add up and China has been sort of well making them very cheaply, and then Southeast Asian countries, as we now call it, have been sort of distributing those components.
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: Now the US has put duties as high as 3,521% on imports from Malaysia, vietnam, thailand and, I believe, cambodia but I might be wrong on that one and therefore US solar companies are looking up because they're like well, if the cheap competitor alternative doesn't exist anymore, this could be good for us.
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: I'm not buying soda this very moment, but it's definitely one to watch.
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: If the whole industry starts to take flight, then we might want to partake in that flight.
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: That's what I'm saying, so I'm not saying that this is the specific.
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: I'm very cautious of soda generally speaking because of all the regulation nonsense, but it could be good news.
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: It could be very good news.
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: It could also be good news for Tesla somewhat.
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: Right Now, let me give you a couple of words of wisdom and then we look at your most sort of popular tech stocks and all the questions I'm seeing in the chat here around Netflix and all that kind of stuff.
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: Love your accent.
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: That's very kind of you, thank you.
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: And undoubtedly a Brit accused me of having a fake accent the other day and then I said to him well, I'm actually German, which I think probably shut him up or made him fall off his chair anyway.
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: So, peter Lynch, undoubtedly one of the greatest investors in the world, also turns out to be a really really nice guy and he said everybody in the world is a long-term investor until the market goes down.
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: And I think that's a real good lesson in that.
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: And what's the lesson?
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: The lesson is, if you own a stock right now and you're thinking, well, should I sell?
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: Should I sell?
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: What should I do?
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: What should I do?
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: Oh no, what made you want to buy that stock?
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: What made you want to buy that stock?
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: Why did you buy the stock?
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: Has anything actually changed?
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: And I don't mean the stock price, I mean the outlook earnings, cash flow, gross margins.
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: Have those things changed?
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: So you know, cash earnings, gross margins, which is sort of pricing power really.
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: If any of those things changed, or are they massively influenced by tariffs, that might be a reason to maybe not want to be in them.
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: But if none of those things have changed, then you're saying the beautiful house you've always wanted to buy up on the hill that you always look at and you say, oh, it's out of my price bracket, now it's half price.
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: Do you now go?
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: I no longer like that beautiful house up on the hill with the best garden ever, or whatever it might be right, no, you go.
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: That's brilliant, that's an opportunity.
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: Let me buy it right.
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: So that's kind of what he's trying to say.
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: So what's your plan?
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: And that's kind of my next point really, it's much, much better to want to be in a stock than to want to be out of a stock.
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: Does that make some sense to you?
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: Does that make some sense to you?
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: Put a one in the chat here.
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: What I'm trying to say is that FOMO is good.
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: If you're feeling FOMO, that's good.
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: It means you're probably taking good decisions.
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: If you're acting on the FOMO, you're going to be in the position where you're holding something and you're like I wish I would have sold this, which doesn't feel as good.
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: So I shared a list of thanks for the ones there.
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: Guys.
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: I shared a list of about 30 or so companies with some of you guys in my coaching community yesterday.
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: Have I bought any of those stocks?
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: Yet I went through the tedious process of setting up all the buy orders.
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: I don't think a single one triggered yesterday.
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: So I don't know any of those 30 stocks that I like.
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: And I tell you why the market went down.
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: Am I upset about that?
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: Nope, I'd be more upset if I'd bought something that was down 70%.
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: Now, for me, that's actually pretty much an impossibility, because I wouldn't allow that to happen, because I actually have a stop set up in my broker for every single position I have, and I recommend you do the same thing.
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: But ultimately, what you want to ask yourself is this and again, there's another little piece of wisdom here for the day.
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: It's a bit of a wisdom Monday morning, isn't it Winston?
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: Winston, is it a wisdom morning?
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: I think it's a wisdom morning.
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: He says yes.
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: He says yes, there is a big pool.
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: So your written investment plan makes money.
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: And be honest, like who doesn't have a written investment plan?
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: If you don't have a written investment plan, put a P for plan in there, right?
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: Like, just be honest about it.
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: Like, and I know 99.9% of people don't have a written investment plan Now, what would a written investment plan look like?
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: Well, it would have your goal on it, financial goals.
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: It would have on it, like how much money you're putting into the market, at what intervals, when you're taking money out or planning to, and it would have it on there, like what are the criteria you use to select stocks or ETFs?
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: And therefore give you a very clear strategy of what you're actually doing right, and I appreciate the honesty guys here Lynn and Jill and Tony and Rosa and Christian and Mark and Spain and Miguel and you know everybody, all you guys.
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: You're being honest, brilliant.
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: I love you for that.
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: Well, you're acting on what Emotions noise the news, right?
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: All that stuff Emotions lose you money.
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: It's just like it's 100% guaranteed.
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: All that stuff Emotions lose you money.
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: It's just like it's a hundred percent guarantee, like there is tons of research on this, even scientific papers, if you like that sort of thing.
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: Basically say, if you have an investment plan, you make more money.
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: Very simple, because you actually have rules right.
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: So the most important thing that you could do in this period is to actually sit down and write out some rules, and you might realize you don't know where to start.
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: Well, the first thing to start would be like where do you want to get to?
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: Right, if you don't know where you want to get, to start with what you hate.
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: That's usually a pretty good place to start and then come up with the opposite of that.
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: So you need to have a goal, a target, because, say, you are flying an airplane right, this is an airplane, right, and you don't have a goal, what do you think you're going to do?
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: You're going to do this right, you're just going to go around in effing circles.
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: So what does an airplane have when it takes off?
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: What do they have to file before they're allowed to take off?
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: Right To get FAA approval or whatever right?
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: Target, right.
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: So you have a target and that way you fly there in a straight line and you actually get that, you actually achieve it.
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: And that isn't just like sort of wishy-washy, mumbo-jumbo, positive thinking talk.
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: It's just true, in fact, you need a goal, you need a target Right.