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Memorial Tournament PGA Leverage Lane | DraftKings & FanDuel DFS | Single-Entry GPP Strategy · Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation

• 0:03
  Speaker 1: All systems going clear the LEFTO.
• 0:35
  Speaker 2: What's up everyone? Tyler Tamberline here aka Totag and Tambo
• 0:38
  Speaker 2: back for another edition of the Leverage Lane Show PGA
• 0:41
  Speaker 2: DFS edition Here on the ship at Nation YouTube Station.
• 0:44
  Speaker 2: Got my guy Alex Blickle here with me as always,
• 0:46
  Speaker 2: gonna break down all things for the memorial. Got a
• 0:49
  Speaker 2: pretty cool topic this week that we're gonna discuss, just
• 0:51
  Speaker 2: talking about the people that say, you know, you can't
• 0:54
  Speaker 2: have another low round after you just had a low
• 0:56
  Speaker 2: round for golfers. So we'll talk about that, some of
• 0:58
  Speaker 2: the stuff coming off of last week, the event there,
• 1:00
  Speaker 2: and then we will get to of course the chalk
• 1:02
  Speaker 2: lineup for this week, how we can leverage that, our
• 1:05
  Speaker 2: Leverage Lane, the betting breakdown, the one and Done segment,
• 1:07
  Speaker 2: all that and more so hit that thumbs up. Make
• 1:10
  Speaker 2: sure to be subscribed to the channel and Alex bring
• 1:12
  Speaker 2: you in first, my man, what's going on? How you doing?
• 1:13
  Speaker 2: The memorial is definitely one that we love. I know
• 1:16
  Speaker 2: we say that all the time, but we love the
• 1:18
  Speaker 2: memorial for sure for real. Yeah.
• 1:20
  Speaker 3: I actually talked about this in my article today for FTNA.
• 1:22
  Speaker 3: Is like I don't want to sound overly enthusiastic for
• 1:25
  Speaker 3: every single event, and so I think we try to
• 1:28
  Speaker 3: actually be you know, honest about the events that kind
• 1:31
  Speaker 3: of bum us out and the courses that are a
• 1:32
  Speaker 3: little bit boring. Like, you know, when we get to
• 1:34
  Speaker 3: Detroit Golf Club, you'll hear me say, I really don't
• 1:37
  Speaker 3: like this golf course. There's not a lot to it.
• 1:39
  Speaker 3: This is one of those weeks where the enthusiasm is
• 1:41
  Speaker 3: one hundred percent deserved. The golf course is just phenomenal.
• 1:45
  Speaker 3: It's I think my favorite kind of thing to point
• 1:49
  Speaker 3: to as to why this is such a good golf
• 1:51
  Speaker 3: course is these players make a lot of birdies on
• 1:54
  Speaker 3: this course. They also make a lot of bogies, a
• 1:57
  Speaker 3: lot of double bogies. More like, it's it just it's
• 2:00
  Speaker 3: the ultimate like high leverage shot course where almost every
• 2:05
  Speaker 3: single shot in every single hole, like the difference between
• 2:08
  Speaker 3: a good shot and a bat shot, a good swing
• 2:09
  Speaker 3: and a bad swing is so much larger than what
• 2:13
  Speaker 3: you get and a typical golf swing on the PGA Tour.
• 2:15
  Speaker 3: And that makes for some really awesome viewing. It. It also
• 2:18
  Speaker 3: means that you know, typically we see some really really
• 2:20
  Speaker 3: good leader boards here because you have to play really
• 2:23
  Speaker 3: good golf for four straight days.
• 2:25
  Speaker 2: Yes, separation nation at this one. You can definitely see it.
• 2:27
  Speaker 2: I remember that what was the RAM one and took
• 2:30
  Speaker 2: the penalty. He's like, all right, just give it to me.
• 2:31
  Speaker 2: We'll win by two instead of four. At the end,
• 2:33
  Speaker 2: it's like, all right, well we'll do that. Him and
• 2:35
  Speaker 2: Ryan Palmer, you know, give him high fives and back
• 2:37
  Speaker 2: and forth. This bumps then going on in the Zurich
• 2:39
  Speaker 2: Classic and whatnot and winning. But the setup here is
• 2:41
  Speaker 2: always good, like you said, and you just it's it's
• 2:44
  Speaker 2: to me, it's like major golf. I know that people
• 2:46
  Speaker 2: like it even from the signature event factor of like
• 2:48
  Speaker 2: this one actually does still have a cut right, it's
• 2:51
  Speaker 2: Jack's plays, it's all the other factors to go with it.
• 2:53
  Speaker 2: But yeah, this one always feels really solid. So excited
• 2:56
  Speaker 2: to break this one down, get your thoughts on how
• 2:58
  Speaker 2: it's going. First, any re cap or anything you want
• 3:00
  Speaker 2: to bring up from last week. And then obviously I
• 3:03
  Speaker 2: know we got a topic to cover, but anything that
• 3:05
  Speaker 2: you took away from last week's event before getting to
• 3:08
  Speaker 2: that topic, I don't think.
• 3:09
  Speaker 3: So. I will say, like, I think it's worth maybe
• 3:16
  Speaker 3: talking a little bit about just how far my lineup
• 3:19
  Speaker 3: fell because it's interesting. Pat and I talked a little
• 3:22
  Speaker 3: bit about it, just in like a humorous way, but
• 3:24
  Speaker 3: I think there there there are some like real takeaways
• 3:27
  Speaker 3: where you know, for for context, my one of my
• 3:31
  Speaker 3: two lineups this past week was winning everything. After Friday,
• 3:34
  Speaker 3: I had a six for six, I had Jordan Smith
• 3:36
  Speaker 3: at two percent leading the tournament. I had two other
• 3:38
  Speaker 3: guys tied for second, Hideki and Ryan Gerard. My six
• 3:43
  Speaker 3: for six combined to shoot sixteen over par on the weekend,
• 3:46
  Speaker 3: like turned into a just a min cash And I
• 3:49
  Speaker 3: think part of it was the the change in the
• 3:52
  Speaker 3: golf course was so severe, and that just kind of
• 3:57
  Speaker 3: made it so that, like the guys who were playing
• 3:59
  Speaker 3: really well, it was hard for them to just continue
• 4:01
  Speaker 3: to do the same things. Right Like when you when
• 4:03
  Speaker 3: you hear a guy talking about how he's been in
• 4:06
  Speaker 3: great format what he has to do the next day,
• 4:09
  Speaker 3: almost every answer is the same. I just got to
• 4:11
  Speaker 3: keep doing the same things I've been doing. I got
• 4:12
  Speaker 3: to keep hitting fairways. I gotta keep giving myself opportunities.
• 4:16
  Speaker 3: But when the golf course changes as much as it
• 4:18
  Speaker 3: did from the first two days to the weekend, you
• 4:20
  Speaker 3: can't just keep doing the same things because the entire
• 4:24
  Speaker 3: you know, landscape of the golf course and the approach
• 4:26
  Speaker 3: that you have to take is totally changed. So I
• 4:28
  Speaker 3: think that kind of tripped them up. And it did
• 4:31
  Speaker 3: lead me to think, like, hm, the next time we're
• 4:34
  Speaker 3: expecting like a huge change in the course from one
• 4:36
  Speaker 3: round to the next, I'm going to lean a little
• 4:38
  Speaker 3: bit less in showdown on like what the players have
• 4:42
  Speaker 3: done in those in those previous rounds and just lean
• 4:44
  Speaker 3: a little bit more into who was this player coming
• 4:46
  Speaker 3: into this week? How well do I you know, is
• 4:49
  Speaker 3: this a player who handles difficult conditions well? Or maybe
• 4:52
  Speaker 3: you know it was a difficult course with the first
• 4:54
  Speaker 3: two days a ton of rain came, there's gonna be
• 4:56
  Speaker 3: no win the next day. Who handles easier conditions better?
• 4:59
  Speaker 3: And so that just something that I thought of in
• 5:01
  Speaker 3: part because of how far my lineup fell.
• 5:03
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I saw that I had Rasmus, who we both
• 5:06
  Speaker 2: talked about it last week show. I know you liked him.
• 5:08
  Speaker 2: I was like, oh, you know, Alex committed, it brought
• 5:09
  Speaker 2: some good points, so like, I'm gonna fit him in
• 5:10
  Speaker 2: there one of my mains. That kind of hurt me,
• 5:12
  Speaker 2: And then I was like, uh, gonna be five or
• 5:15
  Speaker 2: six and the cut, remember last week was nuts because
• 5:17
  Speaker 2: it was like, Okay, now Coodie's gonna miss. I was like, oh,
• 5:18
  Speaker 2: at least that didn't matter, and now I'm not very
• 5:21
  Speaker 2: mad because it's gonna be a four or six anyway.
• 5:23
  Speaker 2: And that's like, oh wait, this guy was it Super
• 5:25
  Speaker 2: or someone? I think yeah, I think it was Super
• 5:27
  Speaker 2: mixed the double double on the two of the last
• 5:29
  Speaker 2: three holes or something to drop it back down and
• 5:30
  Speaker 2: get the minus two's all in. And I was like,
• 5:33
  Speaker 2: oh man, so now this one's gonna be the thought that,
• 5:35
  Speaker 2: you know, like this is my worst case scenario. And
• 5:38
  Speaker 2: then it actually ended up not being nearly as bad.
• 5:41
  Speaker 2: I had a five a six. Funny, the opposite of
• 5:43
  Speaker 2: this spectrum had out The most expensive in my lineup
• 5:47
  Speaker 2: was the miscut and the other five were like the
• 5:49
  Speaker 2: top of the leaderboard. And if like, there's so many
• 5:51
  Speaker 2: things you can look at, but it is crazy how
• 5:53
  Speaker 2: much it switches over the run of a weekend.
• 5:55
  Speaker 3: That uh, that three put for double by a super
• 5:58
  Speaker 3: by the way, changed everything because it it made it
• 6:01
  Speaker 3: threesomes on the weekend instead of pairs, so like you know,
• 6:04
  Speaker 3: there's there's an alternate universe where he makes bogie instead
• 6:07
  Speaker 3: of double. They play in pairings, and my guys who
• 6:10
  Speaker 3: were terrible all weekend just weren't terrible because you never
• 6:13
  Speaker 3: know how those you know, small changes the ripple effect basically,
• 6:17
  Speaker 3: and maybe it would have been a totally different outcome
• 6:19
  Speaker 3: for my guys. Obviously there would have been a much
• 6:21
  Speaker 3: lower six for six percentage as well, which would have
• 6:23
  Speaker 3: helped me. But regardless, you know, I think the key
• 6:26
  Speaker 3: is I've now done multiple entries for two straight weeks
• 6:30
  Speaker 3: and I've had two legitimate chances for takedown. So definitely
• 6:33
  Speaker 3: going to continue with this new path for the next
• 6:35
  Speaker 3: month or so.
• 6:36
  Speaker 2: Breaking news, really good DFS players starts playing a couple
• 6:39
  Speaker 2: more lineups and use his edge to further give himself
• 6:42
  Speaker 2: better edge, and he starts doing better. Wow, this is
• 6:44
  Speaker 2: like I said, I wish you didn't come up with
• 6:46
  Speaker 2: this theory for some of the tournaments. I'm in there
• 6:48
  Speaker 2: with you because I see it, but obviously happy for you,
• 6:50
  Speaker 2: and I think that's awesome just to see it. I
• 6:52
  Speaker 2: know people love this, like your progression and talking through
• 6:55
  Speaker 2: it live and sharing these details, and you know it's
• 6:57
  Speaker 2: part of your journey. Right, you're playing just like everybody
• 7:00
  Speaker 2: else is playing. We're experimenting, we're seeing things. Okay, learning
• 7:03
  Speaker 2: this with AI. Now there's a lot of cool things
• 7:05
  Speaker 2: you can do to figure this stuff out and get
• 7:06
  Speaker 2: some ideas from it, and then you want to experiment
• 7:08
  Speaker 2: a little bit more and so it all makes sense
• 7:10
  Speaker 2: and love that you sort of talk through and walk
• 7:12
  Speaker 2: through everybody right here live on the show. That makes
• 7:14
  Speaker 2: a big difference for those that are trying to learn
• 7:16
  Speaker 2: and get better. Let's talk about the topic real quick.
• 7:19
  Speaker 2: You talked about how quickly things can change, and you know,
• 7:22
  Speaker 2: we were talking over the weekend, you know, some conversation
• 7:24
  Speaker 2: and things like, you know, twenty nine percent Eric Cole
• 7:27
  Speaker 2: going into Sunday on day to golf, and like, well,
• 7:29
  Speaker 2: seventy one percent chance he's not gonna win either. Obviously
• 7:32
  Speaker 2: you'll wake up in the morning on a Sunday said, damn,
• 7:34
  Speaker 2: this feels nice. Almost thirty percent chance to win. I
• 7:37
  Speaker 2: talked with the Masters, the million Maaker. I was four percent,
• 7:39
  Speaker 2: and I was happy on that morning waking up with
• 7:42
  Speaker 2: ninety six percent to not win. But it's just you
• 7:44
  Speaker 2: do feel better waking up to that. But one of
• 7:46
  Speaker 2: the most common things said in golf and it gets
• 7:49
  Speaker 2: relayed into DFS into you know, betting props. Everything is
• 7:53
  Speaker 2: about like the beware of the low round. I know
• 7:56
  Speaker 2: we was talking about like the healthy golfer, the injury,
• 7:59
  Speaker 2: beware of the injured golf as a calling one. But
• 8:00
  Speaker 2: it's like, oh, so and so had a six under yesterday.
• 8:04
  Speaker 2: It's really hard to back that up. Probably true, but
• 8:08
  Speaker 2: I want to hear your full thoughts on but it
• 8:09
  Speaker 2: like it is hard to back up a really good round,
• 8:12
  Speaker 2: of course, but almost people acting as well, like it
• 8:14
  Speaker 2: can't happen, right, is what you're seeing. So talk to
• 8:16
  Speaker 2: us about this a little bit. I'm very curious.
• 8:18
  Speaker 3: Yeah, it's so interesting because it's like the one aspect
• 8:21
  Speaker 3: of DFS where the recency bias actually goes against the
• 8:28
  Speaker 3: recent performance, right, Like if anything, you would think that
• 8:31
  Speaker 3: someone who just shot inner part of the previous day
• 8:33
  Speaker 3: would be over owned in DFS because people kind of
• 8:36
  Speaker 3: chase those things in so many other situations, like in
• 8:39
  Speaker 3: you know, when an NBA player scores forty five points,
• 8:41
  Speaker 3: his ownership goes up the next day. When an NFL
• 8:43
  Speaker 3: player has a three touchdown game, his ownership goes up
• 8:46
  Speaker 3: the next week, so on and so forth. But this
• 8:48
  Speaker 3: is one of the scenarios where typically we see, you know,
• 8:51
  Speaker 3: when when someone won the previous week, they get an
• 8:54
  Speaker 3: ownership discount, and then when someone went super low in
• 8:56
  Speaker 3: one round, they tend to get an ownership discount the
• 8:59
  Speaker 3: next day. And that's especially true in rounds four. When
• 9:02
  Speaker 3: someone played super well to get into contention, it's not
• 9:04
  Speaker 3: necessarily that their ownership goes down because like, now you know,
• 9:06
  Speaker 3: you have finishing position bonus points, but they're lower owned
• 9:09
  Speaker 3: than what like my typical formula would spit out if
• 9:12
  Speaker 3: that player just went low the day before first, whether
• 9:14
  Speaker 3: he was just pretty good the day before or something
• 9:16
  Speaker 3: like that. So just a weird effect that we wanted
• 9:19
  Speaker 3: to talk through. And the first thing I'll say is
• 9:22
  Speaker 3: one of the reasons why this is so commonly believed
• 9:24
  Speaker 3: that it is hard to back up a low round
• 9:26
  Speaker 3: with a low round is that it's said by players
• 9:30
  Speaker 3: a lot. And so the way I want to kind
• 9:31
  Speaker 3: of start this conversation is talking about like my own
• 9:33
  Speaker 3: experiences with this and the fact that I have felt
• 9:36
  Speaker 3: this as a player, and then kind of go from
• 9:39
  Speaker 3: there of Okay, well does the data back that up?
• 9:41
  Speaker 3: And so as a player, Like I can tell you
• 9:43
  Speaker 3: the day after you go really low and then the
• 9:45
  Speaker 3: next day like it's a third hole and you're left
• 9:48
  Speaker 3: with let's say a six foot part putt, and maybe
• 9:50
  Speaker 3: you made three of those the day before, and every
• 9:52
  Speaker 3: single time that you were, you know, met with that
• 9:54
  Speaker 3: kind of challenge, you made the putt, you go to
• 9:56
  Speaker 3: the next whole feeling good about yourself for you know,
• 9:59
  Speaker 3: recovering saving the part, and then the next day you
• 10:03
  Speaker 3: miss and it's like, well, wait a minute, I didn't
• 10:04
  Speaker 3: have to deal with this adversity yesterday. I didn't have to
• 10:06
  Speaker 3: deal with this feeling of oh, I just made a
• 10:08
  Speaker 3: mistake and now I have to let it go and
• 10:10
  Speaker 3: that is a bit of a shock to the system.
• 10:12
  Speaker 3: And so I understand where this feeling comes from and
• 10:15
  Speaker 3: why it is believed that it's so hard to back
• 10:17
  Speaker 3: up a low round with a low round. However, the
• 10:19
  Speaker 3: data doesn't say this.
• 10:20
  Speaker 2: Data.
• 10:21
  Speaker 3: Golf actually did a study on this a few years
• 10:23
  Speaker 3: ago and they found that low rounds, the low round
• 10:26
  Speaker 3: rate goes up the day after a really low round,
• 10:29
  Speaker 3: not down. So it's actually the opposite of kind of
• 10:32
  Speaker 3: our own perception. And really what this gets at is
• 10:35
  Speaker 3: just like a probability function, if you will, where it's
• 10:42
  Speaker 3: just a hard thing for some people to perceive that
• 10:46
  Speaker 3: once someone has gone low. Let me say it this way.
• 10:49
  Speaker 3: It is true that it is extremely difficult to have
• 10:53
  Speaker 3: back to back low rounds. But the question that we're
• 10:56
  Speaker 3: asking isn't how difficult is it to play two really
• 10:59
  Speaker 3: good rounds in a row? It's how difficult is it
• 11:01
  Speaker 3: to play a second really good round after you have
• 11:05
  Speaker 3: already played one really good round? And so the question
• 11:09
  Speaker 3: at hand is not how difficult is it to play
• 11:11
  Speaker 3: both of those rounds, it's the second one, given the
• 11:14
  Speaker 3: first has already happened, And as data Golf found and
• 11:17
  Speaker 3: as I have found as well, now, since it's actually
• 11:20
  Speaker 3: a little bit easier, and so going really low one
• 11:23
  Speaker 3: day makes it slightly more likely to go low the
• 11:27
  Speaker 3: second day. But we don't get this. It's hard to
• 11:31
  Speaker 3: kind of perceive it that way because it's still really
• 11:34
  Speaker 3: really unlikely that you play a second low round, because
• 11:37
  Speaker 3: the odds of going really low in any given round
• 11:40
  Speaker 3: is just so unlikely to begin with.
• 11:43
  Speaker 2: Yeah, and I like the first part too that you
• 11:44
  Speaker 2: brought up, because it is hilarious, like and everything else,
• 11:47
  Speaker 2: people chase it. It's like, oh, so and so did
• 11:49
  Speaker 2: this got to get on them next day, or you
• 11:51
  Speaker 2: even see it in like roster constructions saying but NFL
• 11:53
  Speaker 2: Showdown and if a five to one hits on Sunday night,
• 11:56
  Speaker 2: five to one is super like over owned almost on
• 11:59
  Speaker 2: Monday Nikes, it's like, oh, this looks like another one
• 12:01
  Speaker 2: of those from last night I just saw and it
• 12:03
  Speaker 2: has nothing to do with this. Obviously, this is a
• 12:05
  Speaker 2: bit different because we're using the exact same player. But
• 12:07
  Speaker 2: for Showdown, an example would be and I think like
• 12:10
  Speaker 2: over time and go collect and said it, so I
• 12:11
  Speaker 2: brought it up another This is just another piece of
• 12:13
  Speaker 2: information that is telling me to remove my home bias
• 12:16
  Speaker 2: when it comes to PGA dfs, which is fair a
• 12:18
  Speaker 2: lot of people have this. But I also think it's
• 12:20
  Speaker 2: interesting that like, the first place people would go is
• 12:23
  Speaker 2: to a bad golfer like somebody. Again, they don't go
• 12:26
  Speaker 2: by round though, right, they just use stats. That's what's
• 12:28
  Speaker 2: funny about it too. It's also like, how did the
• 12:30
  Speaker 2: person have this round? The tricky part is with a
• 12:33
  Speaker 2: really low round, not always but typically, or at least
• 12:37
  Speaker 2: it feels like to me, And maybe it's part of
• 12:38
  Speaker 2: my bias of like it's usually putter is pretty hot,
• 12:41
  Speaker 2: Like damn, like they went seven under. They couldn't miss.
• 12:44
  Speaker 2: It wasn't just because they were throwing darts all day usually.
• 12:47
  Speaker 2: But then that's what I've always said is a couple things,
• 12:48
  Speaker 2: like if the putter is super hot, or the irons
• 12:50
  Speaker 2: or both, it's like even if it were by the way,
• 12:53
  Speaker 2: like their price to borrow is still seventy six hundred.
• 12:55
  Speaker 2: It's like they went up two hundred bucks from today. Yeah,
• 12:58
  Speaker 2: but they're never gonna have that super low round. It's like, okay,
• 13:01
  Speaker 2: but that round was like nuclear. It's like we could
• 13:03
  Speaker 2: get their their irons could come back a little bit
• 13:06
  Speaker 2: half a stroke, even their putter could come back a
• 13:09
  Speaker 2: full stroke from yesterday, and man, that still looks pretty
• 13:12
  Speaker 2: good for seventy six hundred. So it's like there's that
• 13:14
  Speaker 2: factor to it as well. But what's funny, And because
• 13:16
  Speaker 2: it's the stats the other way, I think in showdown
• 13:19
  Speaker 2: where this really applies heavily too, a lot of people
• 13:21
  Speaker 2: will go to somebody who had a horrible It could
• 13:24
  Speaker 2: be like a three over when a lot of people
• 13:26
  Speaker 2: were going two under three hundred, and then there was
• 13:27
  Speaker 2: nuclear rounds of like six like five sixty seven under,
• 13:30
  Speaker 2: and it's like, well, you don't really care about their round,
• 13:32
  Speaker 2: you're just looking at their stats, and then you'll immediately
• 13:35
  Speaker 2: go back as if that can't happen again as well.
• 13:37
  Speaker 2: And I know, not deep diving that right now, but
• 13:39
  Speaker 2: my point being, it's like, pretty good if you're playing
• 13:41
  Speaker 2: shitty golf. I mean you said earlier, If you're playing
• 13:43
  Speaker 2: really good golf, the next day you come back that
• 13:45
  Speaker 2: six footer looks like, oh, you know, pretty easy, and
• 13:47
  Speaker 2: then you miss it. It's like, oh, a little bit
• 13:49
  Speaker 2: of adversity. If you're playing really bad and you come
• 13:51
  Speaker 2: back the next day and start out really bad again,
• 13:53
  Speaker 2: or even like one or two bad shots, you can
• 13:54
  Speaker 2: get in your head. I'd have to imagine you can
• 13:56
  Speaker 2: get in your head pretty quickly. At least that's how
• 13:59
  Speaker 2: I think about it. I'm like, you know, man, this
• 14:00
  Speaker 2: is just gonna keep going bad. Negative mindset can often
• 14:04
  Speaker 2: lead to like more negative play, so anything can happen.
• 14:06
  Speaker 2: But I think that's another interesting theory just to think about,
• 14:09
  Speaker 2: oh loud when it comes to this stuff.
• 14:11
  Speaker 3: Yeah, And I think like the point of this conversation
• 14:15
  Speaker 3: is not every time someone goes low, you should play
• 14:17
  Speaker 3: me again the next day. I think you said it well,
• 14:19
  Speaker 3: like in the idea that it matters how the player
• 14:23
  Speaker 3: got to that low round. And so even if a
• 14:25
  Speaker 3: guy spikes with the putter like that's that doesn't automatically
• 14:28
  Speaker 3: mean he's not gonna put well the next day. And
• 14:30
  Speaker 3: one of the things that I like to look at is, well,
• 14:32
  Speaker 3: how did he actually gain his strokes putting? Did he
• 14:34
  Speaker 3: make three forty five footers and was just okay outside
• 14:38
  Speaker 3: of that or was he consistently making every single six
• 14:42
  Speaker 3: foot put eight foot putt, twelve foot putt that he had,
• 14:44
  Speaker 3: Because that ladder example, like that player is a lot
• 14:47
  Speaker 3: more likely to put well again the next day than
• 14:49
  Speaker 3: someone who just happened to make a few bombs and
• 14:51
  Speaker 3: other than that, you know, missed a handful of putts.
• 14:53
  Speaker 3: You know, I think like Speeth has those days all
• 14:56
  Speaker 3: the time where he's like six for six from I
• 14:59
  Speaker 3: don't know, eight to twenty feet and one for four
• 15:03
  Speaker 3: inside of eight feet and it's like, what are you
• 15:05
  Speaker 3: doing doing it from four to eight feet something like that?
• 15:07
  Speaker 3: You know, so that that's hard to back up because
• 15:11
  Speaker 3: you're getting this very clear signal that Okay, he's not
• 15:15
  Speaker 3: reading every put perfectly, he's not hitting every put where
• 15:18
  Speaker 3: he wants. He's not you know, aligning his speed and
• 15:23
  Speaker 3: line perfectly together, because otherwise he'd make all those short ones.
• 15:27
  Speaker 3: And so the fact that he made all of those
• 15:29
  Speaker 3: longer ones can't possibly be telling me a lot of
• 15:33
  Speaker 3: great things. So yeah, I think evaluate each one as
• 15:36
  Speaker 3: its own thing, and really, like the key is just
• 15:38
  Speaker 3: if you're if you're thinking about playing a guy and
• 15:41
  Speaker 3: your dominant thought is he went low yesterday, so I
• 15:45
  Speaker 3: don't want to use him today. Just kick that out
• 15:48
  Speaker 3: of your mind and evaluate the playoffsewhere where if that
• 15:51
  Speaker 3: didn't happen, if all you were doing was looking at
• 15:54
  Speaker 3: his projection and his ownership and how those two kind
• 15:57
  Speaker 3: of combined together, would you like this plane?
• 15:59
  Speaker 2: If you do?
• 16:00
  Speaker 3: And who cares what he did yesterday, because that's still
• 16:02
  Speaker 3: you know, what his potential range of outcomes looks like
• 16:05
  Speaker 3: for today.
• 16:05
  Speaker 2: Yeah, and as you said too, sometimes you're getting even
• 16:08
  Speaker 2: a you know, a lower ownership than you might expect
• 16:10
  Speaker 2: because of that, or you could be surprised, Well, it's
• 16:13
  Speaker 2: kind of still in the mid range. Like not everybody's
• 16:15
  Speaker 2: going away from so and so, But it should come
• 16:18
  Speaker 2: in like twelve to fifteen, and I'm good with that
• 16:20
  Speaker 2: and I like it regardless. So I'm gonna focus on
• 16:22
  Speaker 2: the who or sorry, the how, not the who. I'm
• 16:24
  Speaker 2: going to focus on what I'm playing, the rest of
• 16:26
  Speaker 2: my lineup, and all these other factors that we talk about.
• 16:28
  Speaker 2: But then you're like, holy shit, they actually came in
• 16:30
  Speaker 2: at eight percent, like nobody wanted to play this guy again,
• 16:33
  Speaker 2: and then he goes out, has another low round or something.
• 16:35
  Speaker 2: You feel really smart. I'm really happy at that point.
• 16:37
  Speaker 2: So yeah, I love that conversation. Moving to the memorial,
• 16:41
  Speaker 2: do you want to start with course fit and just
• 16:44
  Speaker 2: talking about how it's going to play and all that
• 16:46
  Speaker 2: first and then do weather or do you want to
• 16:47
  Speaker 2: start with weather first? It looks like you want to
• 16:49
  Speaker 2: go with this, so good.
• 16:50
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I think let's start with course fit first, because
• 16:52
  Speaker 3: typically when we start with weather first, we're like about
• 16:55
  Speaker 3: to talk about how weather is going to change the
• 16:57
  Speaker 3: way that the course plays. But I don't think that's
• 17:00
  Speaker 3: going to be the case here. I think the weather's
• 17:01
  Speaker 3: going to make things difficult. It's going to enhance the
• 17:03
  Speaker 3: course fit model, but the coursefit model is pretty much
• 17:05
  Speaker 3: what the course oft model is here at Mierfield Village.
• 17:07
  Speaker 3: It's one of the strongest, it's one of the most
• 17:09
  Speaker 3: reliable all season, and it's also like one of the
• 17:11
  Speaker 3: coolest because we get a very unique situation where both
• 17:17
  Speaker 3: accuracy and approach play are boosted in terms of their
• 17:21
  Speaker 3: predictive value. As we talk about a bunch of like
• 17:23
  Speaker 3: typically these two skill sets kind of cannibalize each other,
• 17:26
  Speaker 3: where if it's really important that you drive the ball well,
• 17:30
  Speaker 3: it's hard for approach play to also be really predictive
• 17:33
  Speaker 3: because you can't take advantage of a good iron skill
• 17:37
  Speaker 3: set if you're consistently in the rough or in the
• 17:39
  Speaker 3: fairway bunkers around this place instead of in the fairway.
• 17:42
  Speaker 3: So the fact that you see a spike in predictive
• 17:44
  Speaker 3: value for both accuracy off the tee and approach play
• 17:48
  Speaker 3: means like you really need to be dialed in in
• 17:50
  Speaker 3: both of those. And it gets to the idea that
• 17:52
  Speaker 3: I talked about earlier, like this course has a lot
• 17:54
  Speaker 3: of high leveraged shots. If you drive the ball well,
• 17:56
  Speaker 3: you're going to have a birdie opportunity. If you don't
• 17:58
  Speaker 3: drive it well, you might be laying up and scrambling
• 18:01
  Speaker 3: for par from one hundred yards out, or you know
• 18:03
  Speaker 3: you're going to be hitting into the green knowing I
• 18:05
  Speaker 3: can't possibly actually hit this green from the position I'm in,
• 18:08
  Speaker 3: so let me pick which bunker I want to lay
• 18:10
  Speaker 3: up into, essentially so that I have the best chance
• 18:12
  Speaker 3: of getting up and down around the green to scramble
• 18:14
  Speaker 3: my way to a par. So really interesting there and
• 18:17
  Speaker 3: then to that point, it's a massive boost in the
• 18:21
  Speaker 3: predictive value of around the green play, one hundred percent
• 18:24
  Speaker 3: more predictive than in a typical week on tour. And
• 18:27
  Speaker 3: I think that's partially because this is a very difficult course.
• 18:30
  Speaker 3: Guys are going to miss greens and they're gonna have
• 18:32
  Speaker 3: more opportunities than they usually do to have to scramble
• 18:34
  Speaker 3: for par. But it's also because there's a huge, huge
• 18:38
  Speaker 3: course fit, our course management signal in around the green
• 18:42
  Speaker 3: play and in what you have to do around this
• 18:44
  Speaker 3: golf course. If you are not managing your miss as
• 18:46
  Speaker 3: well putting yourself in spots when you miss to actually
• 18:50
  Speaker 3: be able to get up and down, you're just gonna
• 18:52
  Speaker 3: be way behind the eight ball and making a lot
• 18:53
  Speaker 3: of bogies and even some doubles around this place. So
• 18:56
  Speaker 3: really cool in that regard, and then there's also a
• 18:58
  Speaker 3: small boost in the predictive value of putting. One of
• 19:00
  Speaker 3: the one of the few courses on tour where four
• 19:02
  Speaker 3: of the five are more predictive than usual. Distance is
• 19:05
  Speaker 3: less predictive than usual. I think that putting skill, that
• 19:08
  Speaker 3: putting kind of boosts is actually really straightforward as well.
• 19:10
  Speaker 3: It's just it's a difficult course and greens are really fast,
• 19:14
  Speaker 3: and so on most courses where you know, you hit
• 19:17
  Speaker 3: a nice chip or a good lack putt and it
• 19:19
  Speaker 3: stopped at two feet. Here, it's going to roll out
• 19:21
  Speaker 3: to four feet and it's going to be a bit
• 19:23
  Speaker 3: of a tester. So you just get more testers around
• 19:25
  Speaker 3: the hole than at most courses, and you have to
• 19:27
  Speaker 3: make some some more like twelve to sixteen footers to
• 19:29
  Speaker 3: make birdie instead of just having a few tappans on
• 19:32
  Speaker 3: some easy holes.
• 19:33
  Speaker 2: Yeah, if you guys listened to Alex last week, you know,
• 19:35
  Speaker 2: on the course of it, stuff probably did pretty well.
• 19:38
  Speaker 2: Not so much ownership on those guys that were you know,
• 19:40
  Speaker 2: distance guys and the bombers and whatnot. By the end
• 19:42
  Speaker 2: of the tournament, it just looked like that was the leaderboard.
• 19:45
  Speaker 2: It's like a lot of those guys didn't make their
• 19:46
  Speaker 2: way up to the top. Again, we know we've talked
• 19:48
  Speaker 2: about a ton of times, but not many were talking
• 19:50
  Speaker 2: about that going in. So I'm definitely listening loud and clear,
• 19:53
  Speaker 2: and I hope you guys are as well. Let's bring
• 19:55
  Speaker 2: the weather go ahead first and then yeah, let's bring
• 19:57
  Speaker 2: the weather.
• 19:57
  Speaker 3: On that note, man, it looked like Woodland was going
• 20:00
  Speaker 3: to make a push and that would have been That
• 20:02
  Speaker 3: would have been great because he and in fact, like through
• 20:06
  Speaker 3: three rounds I think it was, there were a ton
• 20:08
  Speaker 3: of guys who, like Michael Brennan was up there as well,
• 20:11
  Speaker 3: where it was so clear that distance in and of
• 20:14
  Speaker 3: itself wasn't helpful, but distance combined with accuracy off the
• 20:19
  Speaker 3: tee was extremely helpful. Because there were a couple holes
• 20:22
  Speaker 3: where you saw fifteen I think is a good example
• 20:25
  Speaker 3: where you saw a lot of players really struggle number one,
• 20:28
  Speaker 3: with the decision of what to hit off the tee,
• 20:31
  Speaker 3: and then they struggled with actually hitting that fairway because
• 20:33
  Speaker 3: if you laid back on that hole like short of
• 20:35
  Speaker 3: the fairway bunker, if you hit the right side of
• 20:38
  Speaker 3: the fairway, you were kind of blocked out by a tree.
• 20:40
  Speaker 3: So you have to kind of fit it in the
• 20:41
  Speaker 3: left side of the fairway or take on the bunker,
• 20:43
  Speaker 3: or you could be Gary Willand or Michael Brennan and
• 20:45
  Speaker 3: just carry that bunker with driver. And now if you're
• 20:48
  Speaker 3: in the right rough, you're not blocked out by a tree,
• 20:51
  Speaker 3: you have a lob wedge in your hands, you can
• 20:53
  Speaker 3: actually still stop the ball. It really was beneficial to
• 20:56
  Speaker 3: guys if they were able to hit the ball straight
• 20:58
  Speaker 3: as well. And then of course you also had the
• 21:00
  Speaker 3: Henleys and the Gerars and the spawns up there who
• 21:03
  Speaker 3: were just accurate enough to say, it doesn't matter if
• 21:06
  Speaker 3: I'm linked back, because I am going to hit the
• 21:07
  Speaker 3: fair way, I am going to put it in the
• 21:09
  Speaker 3: right spot and the I'm gonnait of a get iron shot.
• 21:10
  Speaker 3: So obviously there were lots of ways to get there,
• 21:12
  Speaker 3: but yeah, they were. There was a very clear group
• 21:14
  Speaker 3: of players who were under own. It was nice to
• 21:16
  Speaker 3: see that kind of come to fruition. It would have
• 21:18
  Speaker 3: been better if a few more of my guys were
• 21:19
  Speaker 3: able to come through along with those guys, though, Yeah.
• 21:21
  Speaker 2: I think it was something to be said to what
• 21:22
  Speaker 2: we're about to get you now. By the way, too,
• 21:24
  Speaker 2: with weather and how the weekend played and different setup,
• 21:26
  Speaker 2: like all that mattered because you know, started much stronger
• 21:29
  Speaker 2: for those guys than the way it ended. But I
• 21:31
  Speaker 2: will say like it was definitely something to think about
• 21:33
  Speaker 2: going in that not many were talking about. So let's
• 21:35
  Speaker 2: talk about the weather for this week. I know you've
• 21:38
  Speaker 2: got it up there now Thursday Friday, and then I
• 21:41
  Speaker 2: know a lot of people were looking at Saturday. Obviously
• 21:43
  Speaker 2: we got to get our guys there first. You know,
• 21:45
  Speaker 2: there is still a cut here, Like we mentioned, it's
• 21:47
  Speaker 2: a signature event, but one of the one of the
• 21:49
  Speaker 2: ones that does have the smaller cut. When sometimes I
• 21:51
  Speaker 2: say smaller, sometimes it's just on the number, but I'm
• 21:53
  Speaker 2: saying sometimes it works out to being big because if
• 21:56
  Speaker 2: it is those certain names that missed the cut, you're like, well, damn,
• 21:59
  Speaker 2: it's actually a crazier six to six then I thought,
• 22:01
  Speaker 2: And six and six has been quite high often this
• 22:04
  Speaker 2: year it feels like where it's like at least at
• 22:06
  Speaker 2: the fifteen to twenty, if not more. And last week
• 22:09
  Speaker 2: people thought we were getting a really low six to
• 22:11
  Speaker 2: six and then the you know, the the super stuff
• 22:14
  Speaker 2: down the stretch, if you will, and then so it's
• 22:15
  Speaker 2: like that happened, and so I don't know. Maybe at
• 22:18
  Speaker 2: the event you expect to get the highest one, maybe
• 22:19
  Speaker 2: we could see one of the lower ones. We never
• 22:21
  Speaker 2: know till we get there. But give us your thoughts
• 22:22
  Speaker 2: on this weather.
• 22:23
  Speaker 3: Yeah, that's a great point. We should come back to
• 22:25
  Speaker 3: that because I think it compares to a NFL pretty well.
• 22:29
  Speaker 3: There's a kind of a good analogy there. But let's
• 22:32
  Speaker 3: talk weather for a second. So I do think it
• 22:35
  Speaker 3: looks like there could be an advantage wave wise. Now
• 22:38
  Speaker 3: we don't have tea times yet. If they go two
• 22:41
  Speaker 3: sums in pair or two sums in pairs, if they
• 22:44
  Speaker 3: go two sumes off number one, which I think they
• 22:46
  Speaker 3: should do, I think we could very much see an
• 22:49
  Speaker 3: advantage if they go split T three somes. Throw everything
• 22:52
  Speaker 3: that we're about to talk about out the window, because
• 22:55
  Speaker 3: there's just not enough separation of tea times for it
• 22:57
  Speaker 3: to matter. But two sums off of one, that looks
• 23:00
  Speaker 3: like we're gonna get. We're going to get a pretty
• 23:02
  Speaker 3: big disparity here, because you see Thursday looks very calm
• 23:05
  Speaker 3: wind wise. We're using the hr R model right now,
• 23:09
  Speaker 3: but notice as I kind of toggle through that, all
• 23:14
  Speaker 3: the models are saying this, and actually this is one
• 23:16
  Speaker 3: of the kind of more tame ones where we do
• 23:18
  Speaker 3: see the wind pick up Friday, it gets very windy Saturday,
• 23:22
  Speaker 3: especially Saturday morning, and then it looks like maybe a
• 23:24
  Speaker 3: calm Sunday. But let's just click through some other models
• 23:27
  Speaker 3: for a second and just kind of get a sense
• 23:30
  Speaker 3: of the shape and the uncertainty. So here we're seeing
• 23:33
  Speaker 3: maybe some gusts on Thursday, but they don't compare to
• 23:36
  Speaker 3: the gusts Friday afternoon, really really strong here, and then
• 23:39
  Speaker 3: again a pretty windy, stormy Saturday, and so it very
• 23:45
  Speaker 3: much looks like you know, here we see another one
• 23:47
  Speaker 3: with really strong gusts by the way Saturday morning. So
• 23:50
  Speaker 3: it might be like really important to have your guys
• 23:53
  Speaker 3: playing well going into the weekends, so they have those
• 23:55
  Speaker 3: later tea times and avoid the cooler, windier weather on Saturday,
• 23:59
  Speaker 3: and maybe they can. You know, it's gonna be hard
• 24:02
  Speaker 3: to make a run, I think if you have one
• 24:04
  Speaker 3: of those really early Saturday tea times. But again, breezy Friday,
• 24:08
  Speaker 3: very calm Thursday. So it really does look like there's
• 24:12
  Speaker 3: going to be a disparity as long as we get
• 24:14
  Speaker 3: the right tea times and and and that can definitely
• 24:16
  Speaker 3: be taken advantage of.
• 24:18
  Speaker 2: Yeah, what were you saying on the twosomes factor, just
• 24:21
  Speaker 2: because I was like looking at it now and it
• 24:23
  Speaker 2: looks like everyone's going out and it looks like twosomes
• 24:25
  Speaker 2: right that we've.
• 24:25
  Speaker 3: Got, Oh yeah, we do have tea times, so yeah,
• 24:28
  Speaker 3: we've got we've got twosomes off number one. So if
• 24:31
  Speaker 3: there were threeesomes with split tea's, we'd see something like
• 24:33
  Speaker 3: the first tea time I don't know, nine am and
• 24:36
  Speaker 3: the last tea time eleven am. But because we have
• 24:39
  Speaker 3: twosomes off number one, the first tea time is seven
• 24:41
  Speaker 3: to forty five am and the last tea time is
• 24:45
  Speaker 3: one fifty five pm. So you're getting a huge, huge
• 24:50
  Speaker 3: kind of range of tea times. So like they're gonna
• 24:53
  Speaker 3: be plenty of players finished with their rounds and half
• 24:58
  Speaker 3: the you know, maybe a third of the field still
• 25:00
  Speaker 3: hasn't teed off yet. So the fact that we do
• 25:02
  Speaker 3: have a difference in wind is really important. And then
• 25:04
  Speaker 3: the other thing to notice there is if you click
• 25:07
  Speaker 3: so like Brian Campbell and Pierson Coudie are the first
• 25:10
  Speaker 3: tea time on Thursday, they will not be the last
• 25:14
  Speaker 3: tea time on day two on Friday, they are going
• 25:18
  Speaker 3: to be let's find them. They're going to be the
• 25:24
  Speaker 3: why is the search function not working? Okay, ten fifty
• 25:26
  Speaker 3: five am on Friday. And so essentially what they do
• 25:31
  Speaker 3: is they still break it into two waves and then
• 25:35
  Speaker 3: so like here's the first wave on day one, here's
• 25:37
  Speaker 3: the second wave on day one. They don't reverse them,
• 25:41
  Speaker 3: they just flip them this way. So whoever's first on
• 25:45
  Speaker 3: day one is now first in the second wave of
• 25:48
  Speaker 3: day two. So that's why I'm in the middle pack.
• 25:50
  Speaker 3: So you can absolutely get an advantage. It looks like
• 25:53
  Speaker 3: playing somebody who is going to be off very very
• 25:57
  Speaker 3: early on day two and avoid that those really gusty
• 26:01
  Speaker 3: Friday afternoon wins, and they're gonna get beautiful conditions, you know,
• 26:05
  Speaker 3: teeing off late morning on day one.
• 26:07
  Speaker 2: Yeah, you were talking about here we've got I just
• 26:09
  Speaker 2: brought the stone two point zero up over at Chimp
• 26:11
  Speaker 2: and NASA so we could see it. And I just
• 26:12
  Speaker 2: sorted by the round one and there's what you're talking
• 26:14
  Speaker 2: about with Coody and Campbell. It's seven forty five in
• 26:17
  Speaker 2: round one, but it's ten fifty five in round two.
• 26:20
  Speaker 2: And I know, like if you are looking to target
• 26:22
  Speaker 2: some of these areas. I'm not saying these players per se,
• 26:25
  Speaker 2: but it's like, you know, sometimes we get a little
• 26:27
  Speaker 2: bit colder weather and I know you just had it
• 26:29
  Speaker 2: up there. But like if if Thursday morning, like, okay,
• 26:31
  Speaker 2: you get someone who's off a little bit later on
• 26:34
  Speaker 2: Thursday morning. You know, my guy Sung Jam, one of
• 26:36
  Speaker 2: the best of all time to do it. You get
• 26:38
  Speaker 2: Sung Jay nine thirty twelve forty. It's like if he
• 26:41
  Speaker 2: goes off at twelve thirty, anyone who just tuned in
• 26:43
  Speaker 2: for the first time, it is like, what's this guy
• 26:44
  Speaker 2: talking about? Sung JM one of the best to ever
• 26:46
  Speaker 2: do it? But listen, if you got him going off
• 26:49
  Speaker 2: as an example, nine thirty, that looks. I mean, Thursday
• 26:53
  Speaker 2: is pretty solid anyway. It's not really about that. It's
• 26:55
  Speaker 2: but if he's going out in the afternoon, well might
• 26:58
  Speaker 2: not be so good on Friday. Like what we talked about, right, Like,
• 27:01
  Speaker 2: if those winds are picking up Friday afternoon, you might
• 27:04
  Speaker 2: want to be looking at this a bit of a
• 27:06
  Speaker 2: different way. And that's where you're like, again, okay, do
• 27:08
  Speaker 2: I want the guys that are going out midday but
• 27:11
  Speaker 2: then early the next morning, I don't know how are
• 27:13
  Speaker 2: ear least too early and like you've looked at it
• 27:15
  Speaker 2: sometimes like it's like a little bit later, so like
• 27:17
  Speaker 2: a sea wou Well, midday looks pretty solid. I mean
• 27:20
  Speaker 2: he's gonna be super chalky probably anyway, but midday looks
• 27:23
  Speaker 2: pretty solid. On Thursday, like we talked about the you know,
• 27:25
  Speaker 2: the tempts are good, not much wind, all these different factors,
• 27:28
  Speaker 2: but he's not going out until about eight forty five.
• 27:31
  Speaker 2: It's not like the first tea time off in the
• 27:33
  Speaker 2: morning on Thursday or on Friday, storry, but it's not
• 27:36
  Speaker 2: going to be going off like in those what could
• 27:38
  Speaker 2: be bigger winds in the afternoon. So of course, and
• 27:40
  Speaker 2: again he's see woo, I'm just using one of the
• 27:42
  Speaker 2: most obvious examples, but you get what I'm saying. That's
• 27:45
  Speaker 2: kind of how you would look at it. And the'se
• 27:46
  Speaker 2: like pockets, right.
• 27:47
  Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, exactly. And the other thing is like we
• 27:54
  Speaker 3: obviously we don't know what the weather's going to look like.
• 27:57
  Speaker 3: But the the other thing is not just the strength
• 28:02
  Speaker 3: of the winds, but the variance between the sustained winds
• 28:08
  Speaker 3: and the gusts. Because it's not like it's easy for
• 28:12
  Speaker 3: players to say, Okay, there's a twenty mile per hour
• 28:14
  Speaker 3: wind coming up from my left, so I need to
• 28:16
  Speaker 3: aim this much for the left. But that's a lot easier.
• 28:20
  Speaker 3: Then I've got to pick a target, and I don't
• 28:23
  Speaker 3: actually know what the wind is doing up there, and
• 28:25
  Speaker 3: what it's doing in this moment isn't necessarily what it's
• 28:27
  Speaker 3: going to be doing twelve seconds from now when I
• 28:29
  Speaker 3: actually strike the ball. So the severity of the gus
• 28:34
  Speaker 3: is not the only thing to look at. It's how
• 28:36
  Speaker 3: different are the gus from the sustain winds. And you
• 28:38
  Speaker 3: know that part of it is like even harder to forecast,
• 28:42
  Speaker 3: and so you absolutely can get just kind of pockets
• 28:48
  Speaker 3: that pockets of tea times that really work out well.
• 28:50
  Speaker 3: Because the other aspect of it too, that is again
• 28:53
  Speaker 3: like really difficult to nail down exactly what's going to
• 28:56
  Speaker 3: happen with the effect that it's going to have. Is
• 28:58
  Speaker 3: it also matters like when the gusts come at their strongest,
• 29:02
  Speaker 3: and you know, if you look at like the strongest hour,
• 29:05
  Speaker 3: for example, it's not just who's on the course, it's
• 29:08
  Speaker 3: what part of the course are they on? Are they
• 29:10
  Speaker 3: on parts of the course that are more exposed to wind.
• 29:13
  Speaker 3: Are they on parts of the course that have you know,
• 29:16
  Speaker 3: even more high leveraged shots and you just don't know,
• 29:19
  Speaker 3: or are those gus coming when you're into the wind
• 29:22
  Speaker 3: or in a crosswind versus downwind where that those guts
• 29:25
  Speaker 3: are actually helping you, you know, reach out par five
• 29:27
  Speaker 3: and two something like that. So there's just so much
• 29:30
  Speaker 3: kind of randomness to it that instead of trying really
• 29:33
  Speaker 3: really hard to predict who's going to get the perfect conditions,
• 29:36
  Speaker 3: it really does make sense to just play pockets and
• 29:38
  Speaker 3: hope that you lock out because we're all playing for
• 29:40
  Speaker 3: first place and it doesn't matter if it works totally
• 29:42
  Speaker 3: against you and you end up in last place instead.
• 29:45
  Speaker 2: Yeah, one thing I want to say, just from the
• 29:46
  Speaker 2: DFS side of things, because like I said that, all
• 29:48
  Speaker 2: the wind stuff has been talked about, and I know
• 29:50
  Speaker 2: you also talked about a few weeks ago in our
• 29:52
  Speaker 2: Evergreen spot here of breaking down like why you would
• 29:55
  Speaker 2: just commit to a wave regardless. Again, I know people
• 29:58
  Speaker 2: get so caught up in this about like the web
• 30:00
  Speaker 2: and all that, and like in this case we are
• 30:01
  Speaker 2: talking about it from the weather perspective, but just noting it,
• 30:03
  Speaker 2: like if you're already in on a wave or on
• 30:05
  Speaker 2: a pocket or something like that. You find something that works,
• 30:07
  Speaker 2: it's it's it may not work at all, it may
• 30:09
  Speaker 2: it may be horrible, but it also might work. And
• 30:11
  Speaker 2: in this instance, it's really intriguing because, first of all,
• 30:15
  Speaker 2: what if just this picture on the screen is accurate. Well,
• 30:18
  Speaker 2: it doesn't look great for the Friday afternoon guys as
• 30:21
  Speaker 2: much as it does for the Friday morning guys. So
• 30:23
  Speaker 2: let's say you went Thursday PM Friday am. Whatever that
• 30:26
  Speaker 2: looks like. Well, also you may get some that Oh
• 30:30
  Speaker 2: I'm I didn't listen to those idiots. I played a
• 30:32
  Speaker 2: guy AMPM and he still made the cut. Great. He
• 30:35
  Speaker 2: just made the cut. Though, how's Saturday morning looking for him? Well,
• 30:38
  Speaker 2: not so great? And so you may be in a
• 30:42
  Speaker 2: position doesn't mean you will be. It's it's what it's about,
• 30:44
  Speaker 2: the what if and if it goes if it does
• 30:46
  Speaker 2: go your way, there is that possibility here where it
• 30:49
  Speaker 2: kind of does double down. It's again, doesn't look like
• 30:52
  Speaker 2: a Saturday afternoon gets that much better, but it's just
• 30:55
  Speaker 2: different factors. The tempts are up. What if the wind
• 30:57
  Speaker 2: does move heavier into the morning and it opens that up,
• 31:00
  Speaker 2: It just does not look good for that morning, and you, well,
• 31:02
  Speaker 2: you can't predict that. You can use other things as
• 31:05
  Speaker 2: you're going along to sort of make it work in
• 31:07
  Speaker 2: your favor. And again, it's not who you play, it's
• 31:08
  Speaker 2: how you play them. That's just an example of where
• 31:10
  Speaker 2: that it could almost like a triple entendre of like
• 31:13
  Speaker 2: it's like you went with a waystack because it makes
• 31:15
  Speaker 2: sense based on your points of like, if you're gonna
• 31:17
  Speaker 2: go with it, go with it anyway. Two could work
• 31:20
  Speaker 2: out for the standard wave split just being slightly better.
• 31:24
  Speaker 2: But even if it's only slightly better or really better,
• 31:26
  Speaker 2: it doesn't really matter if it's both, or it can
• 31:29
  Speaker 2: only be what I'm saying, like, if it's slightly better
• 31:31
  Speaker 2: or really better, it's it's they're both. It could be
• 31:34
  Speaker 2: in your favor because it could push those guys to
• 31:36
  Speaker 2: playing Saturday later in the round where it could move
• 31:39
  Speaker 2: up even further to the morning there and already Saturday
• 31:41
  Speaker 2: morning doesn't look good, So it actually could just work
• 31:44
  Speaker 2: in your favor that way, as opposed to like, yeah,
• 31:47
  Speaker 2: we can't make it work in your favor, but it
• 31:49
  Speaker 2: might if you build it that way. So that's how
• 31:50
  Speaker 2: I look at it.
• 31:51
  Speaker 3: This Saturday morning looks brutal, and look look how different
• 31:55
  Speaker 3: the wind and the wind gusts are there that's sustained
• 31:58
  Speaker 3: versus the cuss is. So you're gonna start your round
• 32:02
  Speaker 3: with like no idea what the wind is doing, and
• 32:04
  Speaker 3: then you're finishing the round with the highest sustained wins
• 32:07
  Speaker 3: of the entire week at nineteen miles per hour. So
• 32:09
  Speaker 3: who knows if this forecast is correct or if this
• 32:11
  Speaker 3: model's you know, the best of them, but but yeah,
• 32:14
  Speaker 3: it could be really difficult. So we could immediately get
• 32:16
  Speaker 3: a situation where like you want to play all guys
• 32:18
  Speaker 3: on Saturday who just went low the day before so
• 32:21
  Speaker 3: that they're near the lead, and immediately just hoping that
• 32:23
  Speaker 3: all your guys kind of back up a low one
• 32:25
  Speaker 3: with another low one. So that would be very interesting
• 32:27
  Speaker 3: if you're you can maybe apply all of this discussion
• 32:33
  Speaker 3: in the Saturday showdown that we're having.
• 32:35
  Speaker 2: You just don't usually get to line up like that,
• 32:37
  Speaker 2: and that's I mean, there's so many people that don't
• 32:39
  Speaker 2: listen or don't care. They'll come back and be like, well,
• 32:41
  Speaker 2: my AMPM guy crushed it, and your a PMM guy
• 32:43
  Speaker 2: just snuck in, and you have had to play the
• 32:44
  Speaker 2: morning anyway. Yes, that could happen, but we're like, we're saying,
• 32:48
  Speaker 2: for the what if it doesn't, or what if you
• 32:49
  Speaker 2: have a set of your portfolio built around that or
• 32:53
  Speaker 2: something like that. It's like, that's where you can get
• 32:55
  Speaker 2: more opportunities and how you put yourself in that position.
• 32:57
  Speaker 2: And if you just did math and numbers and odds
• 33:00
  Speaker 2: and in a simulation it was the weather did go
• 33:04
  Speaker 2: that way, the math and the odds and everything would
• 33:06
  Speaker 2: lead to that and you would get a chance where
• 33:08
  Speaker 2: usually we'd say, well, you can't really figure out Saturday
• 33:11
  Speaker 2: on Wednesday night or Thursday morning when you're locking in
• 33:13
  Speaker 2: your lineups. But it's a way that this could double
• 33:17
  Speaker 2: and triple down work in your favor, just by chance.
• 33:19
  Speaker 2: So I like that. Anything else on the weather you
• 33:22
  Speaker 2: want to talk about? If not, I want to get
• 33:23
  Speaker 2: to the chalk version of the lineup this week.
• 33:27
  Speaker 3: Yeah, let's just jump into the chalk.
• 33:29
  Speaker 2: Perfect, all right? I got the stone two point zero
• 33:31
  Speaker 2: up here. If anything is not working or you see
• 33:34
  Speaker 2: it on screen, not good. I just want to show
• 33:35
  Speaker 2: this off. But just for members and for everybody, we
• 33:37
  Speaker 2: did add an additional feature, so we removed the left sidebar.
• 33:41
  Speaker 2: It's now all across the top. So if you favorite
• 33:44
  Speaker 2: your golfers, I'm gonna go back by salary. But if
• 33:46
  Speaker 2: you favorite your golfers and then want to look at
• 33:47
  Speaker 2: his favorites, they'll be there when it's updated. This is
• 33:50
  Speaker 2: still the rough draft. I like it because now this
• 33:52
  Speaker 2: is going to be out for Alex and I to
• 33:53
  Speaker 2: be able just to look through and see things quicker
• 33:56
  Speaker 2: like those tea times or build out the chalk versions, whatever.
• 33:59
  Speaker 2: But when these are color coded, you'll be able just
• 34:00
  Speaker 2: to click those. All the buttons are still available in
• 34:03
  Speaker 2: the search, but now you can actually save lineup. So
• 34:06
  Speaker 2: we just ran what our optimal is right now and
• 34:08
  Speaker 2: then we can work off that. Alex. This is just
• 34:11
  Speaker 2: our current on the rough draft. And again ownership's not
• 34:14
  Speaker 2: updated things like that yet, but it's currently filling it
• 34:17
  Speaker 2: out with a fifty k lineup of Ludwig si Wu,
• 34:21
  Speaker 2: JT Spawn, Woodland, Nick Taylor, they're all showing a little
• 34:25
  Speaker 2: bit ownership. You can let me know where you see
• 34:27
  Speaker 2: different and what you see there. But just so people know,
• 34:30
  Speaker 2: now over at Tribernation, you can save the lineup now
• 34:34
  Speaker 2: and have access to see it right there. So even
• 34:36
  Speaker 2: if you don't have an optimizer package, you're just more
• 34:38
  Speaker 2: of a handbuilder. You can do that and see it.
• 34:40
  Speaker 2: The next step will be and it's coming soon. I
• 34:43
  Speaker 2: just didn't want to release everything at one time until
• 34:44
  Speaker 2: we battle tested it to be able to download this
• 34:47
  Speaker 2: CSV so you can handbuild as many lineups as you want.
• 34:50
  Speaker 2: But this is the first one I've got up here, Alex,
• 34:52
  Speaker 2: what are your thoughts on this?
• 34:53
  Speaker 3: Yeah, this is absolutely one of the chalk builds. I've
• 34:57
  Speaker 3: got Oberg at the very top of own, and then
• 35:01
  Speaker 3: Spawn and JT are like, let's see Spawn is second.
• 35:05
  Speaker 3: JT's i think fourth behind Henley and Seawou or something
• 35:10
  Speaker 3: like that, one of the two. So yeah, I think
• 35:14
  Speaker 3: we're definitely gonna see a lot of variations again as
• 35:16
  Speaker 3: we have all season, where people are fading the super
• 35:20
  Speaker 3: expensive guys and they're just hammering this like low nine
• 35:24
  Speaker 3: K to low ten K range. Basically, I would say
• 35:28
  Speaker 3: Tommy to Oberg, maybe maybe even Tommy to Cam Young,
• 35:31
  Speaker 3: but the three most popular look like they're gonna be Oberg,
• 35:35
  Speaker 3: Sea Wou, and Russell Henley. Henley's an interesting one. They're
• 35:38
  Speaker 3: because I'm not seeing the signs of people avoiding just
• 35:41
  Speaker 3: because he won last week, So that's maybe the industry
• 35:47
  Speaker 3: is evolving a little bit and maturing a little bit
• 35:49
  Speaker 3: in that regard. But I think it's also because he
• 35:52
  Speaker 3: won a non signature event and now we're getting to
• 35:54
  Speaker 3: a signature event, and so I think the effect is
• 35:57
  Speaker 3: usually stronger when someone just won a bigger event than
• 36:00
  Speaker 3: the next one that they're playing. So I think that's
• 36:02
  Speaker 3: probably why we're not seeing the just one ownership discount
• 36:06
  Speaker 3: on Henley. But I think the last two guys in
• 36:10
  Speaker 3: Woodland and Taylor, they are the two that I have
• 36:14
  Speaker 3: is the most popular in their respective price ranges. But
• 36:17
  Speaker 3: I would also say that they're not so popular that
• 36:19
  Speaker 3: like I would call those guys mega chalk. I think
• 36:22
  Speaker 3: the chalk build is more so this combination of two
• 36:26
  Speaker 3: of the nine K to low ten K guys and
• 36:29
  Speaker 3: then two of like j T smally spawn Speef kind
• 36:34
  Speaker 3: of in this low to mid eight K range, and
• 36:36
  Speaker 3: then from there people can go wherever they want.
• 36:39
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think this is another obvious, you know, potential
• 36:41
  Speaker 2: version anyway, Like if it's not Nick Taylor and someone
• 36:43
  Speaker 2: says I'm gonna go to writing or something like that,
• 36:47
  Speaker 2: like you could see this as well. Right or Gerard
• 36:49
  Speaker 2: or something there, like obviously Taylor could become that. But
• 36:52
  Speaker 2: what's most interesting again, people always look at this and
• 36:54
  Speaker 2: say like, oh, you got the lineup up on the screen,
• 36:56
  Speaker 2: like these are probably horrible lineups to play in large
• 36:58
  Speaker 2: field tournaments for the most part. And honestly, I know
• 37:00
  Speaker 2: we talk single entry and whatnot, and it's yes, they're
• 37:03
  Speaker 2: gonna project well and all this, but you're really gonna
• 37:05
  Speaker 2: be again, we're not rehashing every conversation every week. But
• 37:08
  Speaker 2: Alex made some great points a couple of weeks ago
• 37:10
  Speaker 2: about like people not fully understanding, like, oh but I
• 37:13
  Speaker 2: got two guys that are different. It's like, okay, but
• 37:15
  Speaker 2: you have four that are the same. And that's gonna
• 37:17
  Speaker 2: be the tricky part. But just to note that the
• 37:20
  Speaker 2: prevalent piece to me is it's gotta be what the
• 37:23
  Speaker 2: first time all season that we haven't seen the seven
• 37:26
  Speaker 2: K range, be like at least an area of it.
• 37:29
  Speaker 2: Like sure people will be on Gary Woodland, maybe Sep
• 37:33
  Speaker 2: maybe like I don't know, but it's like, man, I
• 37:35
  Speaker 2: don't see much like I actually could see even lower
• 37:38
  Speaker 2: numbers on some of these guys up top are like
• 37:40
  Speaker 2: Lowry No One likes to go back to a winner
• 37:43
  Speaker 2: ride Jason day Ox, Shay Bridgeman, like they just don't
• 37:46
  Speaker 2: fit the bills at all. And by the way, we
• 37:49
  Speaker 2: haven't got there yet, not to keep it ranting too hard,
• 37:51
  Speaker 2: but just noting it if and when, by the way,
• 37:54
  Speaker 2: people do go to Scottie, I don't see where you're
• 37:57
  Speaker 2: landing in that upper seven K range or lower eight
• 37:59
  Speaker 2: K range, either in that spot, so outside of maybe Smallly, yes,
• 38:03
  Speaker 2: or maybe JT, but not in this build very commonly
• 38:06
  Speaker 2: because then you're down to seventy one hundred per So
• 38:09
  Speaker 2: it's like, I don't I don't see this balanced build
• 38:12
  Speaker 2: with these upper seven k guys getting used that heavily.
• 38:16
  Speaker 3: The reason for this, by the way, is because given
• 38:19
  Speaker 3: given the preference for like JT spawn Smallly, there are
• 38:24
  Speaker 3: so many lineup combinations that end with like, you know,
• 38:29
  Speaker 3: seven thousand or seventy two hundred remaining per player with
• 38:32
  Speaker 3: multiple spots, and there just aren't enough guys in the
• 38:36
  Speaker 3: six K range that people feel good about to go
• 38:39
  Speaker 3: six k upper seven k instead of two low seven
• 38:43
  Speaker 3: K guys. So that's why we see this range just
• 38:46
  Speaker 3: kind of being totally almost deserted. And I agree, like
• 38:49
  Speaker 3: I think the upper seven K range is kind of loaded, honestly,
• 38:53
  Speaker 3: like step Rose, Nikolai, Kitti Yama English, those are really
• 38:57
  Speaker 3: strong plays that aren't gonna get much ownership and so
• 39:00
  Speaker 3: definitely a candidate for you know, my leverage lane is
• 39:03
  Speaker 3: to just kind of hammer this this range right here.
• 39:06
  Speaker 2: Yeah, that's the one thing that usually we don't see anymore.
• 39:10
  Speaker 2: And like I said, the other factor. I mean, we
• 39:11
  Speaker 2: definitely just got to have this. I'll pull them back up.
• 39:13
  Speaker 2: I want to circle back. But this Scotty situation, like, yeah,
• 39:17
  Speaker 2: stat says, what are the thirty percent Scotti builds looking like?
• 39:20
  Speaker 2: So first off, I want to and well, we will
• 39:22
  Speaker 2: bring these up. I'm curious as well, but I want
• 39:23
  Speaker 2: to ask Alex what is your thoughts. You know, Scotty
• 39:27
  Speaker 2: has certainly surprised us in certain spots where you know,
• 39:31
  Speaker 2: we're like, oh man, those seem horrible, and he still
• 39:33
  Speaker 2: came in at you know, twenty seven percent or whatever
• 39:35
  Speaker 2: like that. Now this week a little bit different. Obviously,
• 39:37
  Speaker 2: the guy's one here back to back. It is a
• 39:40
  Speaker 2: you know, it's a very small cut, but when you
• 39:43
  Speaker 2: look at things like inequity and all that Obviously it's
• 39:45
  Speaker 2: going to be very highly built into this, but there
• 39:48
  Speaker 2: is options down here that people are comfortable with, right,
• 39:51
  Speaker 2: Like we've already talked whether it's I'm just using Nick
• 39:53
  Speaker 2: Taylor to start obviously, but even if you just went
• 39:56
  Speaker 2: Nick Taylor, you're now in like the Woodland range. Who
• 40:00
  Speaker 2: else do we say, maybe you can put Straka in there?
• 40:04
  Speaker 2: Like you know, I don't, Maybe we don't fill it
• 40:06
  Speaker 2: all out, but I guess like the idea of you
• 40:08
  Speaker 2: could probably still get another who who's another six k
• 40:10
  Speaker 2: guy you said earlier that might be popular.
• 40:13
  Speaker 3: I don't think that there are any other so.
• 40:15
  Speaker 2: Maybe writing or something, and then I'll use Rows just
• 40:17
  Speaker 2: because he showed Again, I don't think they're going to
• 40:19
  Speaker 2: be that high home. But my point, I mean, this
• 40:20
  Speaker 2: is only like five ors, what was it three? I
• 40:23
  Speaker 2: can do this now, Actually let me save this vers.
• 40:25
  Speaker 3: I think I think Gerard's the other one that you
• 40:27
  Speaker 3: can toss in there, And if you want to count
• 40:28
  Speaker 3: Keegan at seven thousand flat, he's he's probably gonna be
• 40:32
  Speaker 3: somewhat popular as well.
• 40:33
  Speaker 2: But so these are ten apart. I mean on again
• 40:36
  Speaker 2: early initials, rough Terra, all of that. But I'm just
• 40:38
  Speaker 2: saying that I could definitely see people saying those sacrifice
• 40:41
  Speaker 2: ten points on the fantasy point median side to get
• 40:45
  Speaker 2: those Scotti lineups. We saw it. It was what was it,
• 40:47
  Speaker 2: fourteen or eighteen A couple of weeks ago. We're like, wow,
• 40:49
  Speaker 2: that's actually really bad. It was quite a bit actually,
• 40:52
  Speaker 2: but he still got to almost thirty percent. So I
• 40:54
  Speaker 2: could definitely see this type of thing happening here. And
• 40:56
  Speaker 2: there's tons of ways to shake it out, like you said,
• 40:58
  Speaker 2: they could. It could be a lot of different angles.
• 41:00
  Speaker 2: Here could be Norn and seventy five hundred left to
• 41:03
  Speaker 2: pick a guy. It could be Keegan like you said,
• 41:07
  Speaker 2: And now you've got seventy seven hundred. So whether it's
• 41:09
  Speaker 2: lowry Rye or you move a couple other pieces hoguard
• 41:12
  Speaker 2: or something, so these are projecting similarly to the other ones.
• 41:15
  Speaker 2: I don't know if you got anything else to add
• 41:17
  Speaker 2: on that.
• 41:17
  Speaker 3: Yeah, So a lot of the time this year when
• 41:20
  Speaker 3: we've talked about Scotti bilts, like, the main thing we've
• 41:22
  Speaker 3: talked about is the defining factor of whether people are
• 41:24
  Speaker 3: gonna use Scotty or not is not how they feel
• 41:26
  Speaker 3: about Scotty. It's how they feel about the you know,
• 41:28
  Speaker 3: the low seven K range, the upper six K range,
• 41:31
  Speaker 3: so on and so forth. And that's still true to
• 41:34
  Speaker 3: some degree this week. But there are guys, as you
• 41:37
  Speaker 3: just showed on the screen, that people will feel pretty
• 41:39
  Speaker 3: good about playing. I think the reason why Scotty will
• 41:42
  Speaker 3: be under owned this week, or lower owned than a
• 41:43
  Speaker 3: lot of people expect, is for a different reason, and
• 41:46
  Speaker 3: that's simply because there's so much opportunity cost to using Scotty.
• 41:50
  Speaker 3: If you use Scotty, it becomes impossible to use any
• 41:54
  Speaker 3: of Henley, Silu, Oberg, Shoffley, Fitzpatrick, can't lay Tommy like
• 41:59
  Speaker 3: these guys that you know people really like and want
• 42:01
  Speaker 3: to play. But it also becomes really, really difficult to
• 42:04
  Speaker 3: use two of the you know, most popular plays on
• 42:07
  Speaker 3: the slate, Spawn and JT. If you start with Scotty,
• 42:10
  Speaker 3: you're left with seventy three hundred. If you go Scotty
• 42:13
  Speaker 3: and JT, you left for seven thousand. If you go
• 42:15
  Speaker 3: with all three of these guys, Scotty, JT, and Spaun,
• 42:18
  Speaker 3: you'll look for sixty seven hundred per year remaining three spots.
• 42:21
  Speaker 3: Those are just not lineups that people are gonna build
• 42:23
  Speaker 3: a ton of. So I only have Scotty at I
• 42:26
  Speaker 3: think twenty one percent in single entries, not the thirty
• 42:28
  Speaker 3: percent that you guys have.
• 42:30
  Speaker 2: Yeah, this is what I want to see though, Like
• 42:32
  Speaker 2: you know, if you go like Scotty JT, you do
• 42:37
  Speaker 2: actually have a way to get there if you're comfortable.
• 42:39
  Speaker 2: Guys I've seen mentioned you know, enough is like the
• 42:41
  Speaker 2: Nick Taylor obviously he's getting. Yeah, it's way too high
• 42:44
  Speaker 2: right now. I know it's gonna come down some. But
• 42:45
  Speaker 2: it's like whether it's right and whether it's Keegan at
• 42:48
  Speaker 2: seven k flat, whether it's Eric cole Off another good
• 42:51
  Speaker 2: week at sixty seven hundred or something like that. That's
• 42:54
  Speaker 2: where I could see it, you know, playing out a
• 42:56
  Speaker 2: little bit. And we are still seeing some ownership on
• 42:58
  Speaker 2: these guys and projections around the industry on guys like
• 43:02
  Speaker 2: you know, Colley McCarty, Post and Harmon, like they're still
• 43:05
  Speaker 2: at least getting some of Novak who we brought up earlier. Again,
• 43:09
  Speaker 2: how much do people actually go there? Probably not very much,
• 43:11
  Speaker 2: but I'm just saying that's definitely something that fits. And
• 43:14
  Speaker 2: then obviously if you come down from JT, there could
• 43:18
  Speaker 2: be a unique build here still where it's like if
• 43:20
  Speaker 2: you do want to play Scotty in a way that's different.
• 43:22
  Speaker 2: I still think this could be different because, like we said,
• 43:24
  Speaker 2: the upper sevens aren't being touched. We've got it right here,
• 43:28
  Speaker 2: average of seventy six sixty six. So you can get
• 43:31
  Speaker 2: away now with like a Scotty again, not probably for me,
• 43:35
  Speaker 2: but Scotty and Nick Taylor together as combinatorial ownership. But
• 43:38
  Speaker 2: like you talk about, but like the setup of those two,
• 43:42
  Speaker 2: let's just say my guy is not Nick Taylor and
• 43:45
  Speaker 2: Eric Cole, but instead I prefer Sam Stevens and Harry Hall.
• 43:50
  Speaker 2: Well they're gonna have like load of no ownership, and
• 43:52
  Speaker 2: I still have the same seventy seventy six hundred left.
• 43:54
  Speaker 2: Then I got to do whatever I want up the middle.
• 43:56
  Speaker 2: I would still be fine if I did like Gary
• 43:58
  Speaker 2: Woodland saying okay, now what running it out like that.
• 44:01
  Speaker 2: So I think that's where it gets at least a
• 44:02
  Speaker 2: little bit interesting. Stat asked another question around that for you. You know,
• 44:06
  Speaker 2: do you do you think that thirty percent, let's say
• 44:08
  Speaker 2: it's true, do you think that's under owned about right
• 44:12
  Speaker 2: over owned? I mean, it's I think it's about right,
• 44:14
  Speaker 2: but it's it's whether it's right or not on the
• 44:17
  Speaker 2: lineups we'll see.
• 44:18
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean this, This is where I kind of
• 44:20
  Speaker 3: have to talk about Scotty different than I talk about
• 44:22
  Speaker 3: everyone else, because forever, like the GPB scores that we
• 44:25
  Speaker 3: use at FTN, they say whether a player is under
• 44:29
  Speaker 3: owned or over owned, given his full range of outcomes,
• 44:32
  Speaker 3: how likely is he to succeed, How likely is he
• 44:34
  Speaker 3: to like really smash and help you get a takedown?
• 44:36
  Speaker 3: How likely is he to fail and ruin otherwise great lineup,
• 44:39
  Speaker 3: so on and so forth. With Scotty, you can't really
• 44:42
  Speaker 3: talk about him that way because every single week he
• 44:44
  Speaker 3: is one of the best GPP scores because for his price,
• 44:47
  Speaker 3: his range of outcomes are still fantastic. Right Like, let's
• 44:52
  Speaker 3: let's pick let's pick on JT for a second. JT
• 44:56
  Speaker 3: projects well for us. He does, but we give him
• 44:59
  Speaker 3: a sixteen per chance of a top ten finish and
• 45:01
  Speaker 3: a twenty one percent chance of missing the cut. More
• 45:04
  Speaker 3: likely to Did I say that right?
• 45:07
  Speaker 2: No?
• 45:07
  Speaker 3: I was looking at the wrong guy. Eighteen percent chance
• 45:09
  Speaker 3: for a top ten, twenty two percent chance for a miscut,
• 45:13
  Speaker 3: so slightly more likely to miss the cut than he
• 45:15
  Speaker 3: is to give you the kind of finish that is
• 45:17
  Speaker 3: really helping you take down a tournament that's typical for
• 45:22
  Speaker 3: almost every single PGA player except Scott. He's at sixty
• 45:26
  Speaker 3: one percent for a top ten and five percent for
• 45:29
  Speaker 3: a miscut. His likelihood of like really really helping you,
• 45:33
  Speaker 3: And you can say, you know, at thirteen to five,
• 45:35
  Speaker 3: a top ten isn't enough. You need him to finish
• 45:37
  Speaker 3: top five okay forty eight percent or win okay, twenty
• 45:41
  Speaker 3: one and a half percent. So he's still like even
• 45:43
  Speaker 3: if you say he has to win, he's four times
• 45:46
  Speaker 3: more likely to win than miss the cut. You don't
• 45:49
  Speaker 3: see that kind of success to failure ratio in PGADFS,
• 45:53
  Speaker 3: which is why he's always quote unquote under owned. The
• 45:56
  Speaker 3: problem is he's not the full lineup. You have to
• 45:59
  Speaker 3: have five other guys in the lineup, and he's prohibitive
• 46:01
  Speaker 3: in a way that nobody else is because of his price,
• 46:04
  Speaker 3: even at the quote unquote discount of thirteen to five.
• 46:07
  Speaker 3: So I think that he's still slightly over owned, where
• 46:14
  Speaker 3: I think people are still too often playing just I'm
• 46:18
  Speaker 3: picking Scotty because of how well Scotty's gonna do and
• 46:21
  Speaker 3: not considering the full ramifications of what he does to
• 46:24
  Speaker 3: the whole lineup. So I'm almost certainly not going to
• 46:27
  Speaker 3: play him this week, even though we have n't projected
• 46:29
  Speaker 3: twenty one percent mmy nineteen point seven percent single entry.
• 46:33
  Speaker 3: Even at those numbers, which are lowest in the industry,
• 46:36
  Speaker 3: on his ownership, I'm still not at a point where
• 46:39
  Speaker 3: I want to play him.
• 46:40
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I still got him coming to I think ours
• 46:41
  Speaker 2: might be a little high, but I still got him
• 46:42
  Speaker 2: coming in over twenty five. Because Jason's point stands true,
• 46:45
  Speaker 2: It's like people are very comfortable the course history, you know, again,
• 46:49
  Speaker 2: not saying it's right, noting what people do though, And
• 46:51
  Speaker 2: that's Alex's point of what he said too, is like,
• 46:53
  Speaker 2: even if you could make an argument specifically to say
• 46:56
  Speaker 2: Scotty's under owned, if he even even at thirty percent,
• 46:59
  Speaker 2: he's under owned up to three percent, you could say,
• 47:01
  Speaker 2: let's say that's what your numbers say. Okay, great, But
• 47:03
  Speaker 2: then it's also what does the rest of the bill
• 47:05
  Speaker 2: do and what you what can you do with it
• 47:07
  Speaker 2: from there? And that's really what it comes down to.
• 47:08
  Speaker 2: I think people are going to be comfortable getting there,
• 47:11
  Speaker 2: So we'll see how that shakes out. I am going
• 47:13
  Speaker 2: to bring up something else and then I'm just gonna
• 47:14
  Speaker 2: bring this up quickly. First with Jared I. If you're
• 47:16
  Speaker 2: still having issues, you can email info at shippenation dot com.
• 47:20
  Speaker 2: We did change the projections page so that it's all
• 47:24
  Speaker 2: on one. If you have an old saved link, then
• 47:27
  Speaker 2: that's the problem too. If your bookmarked or something that's
• 47:29
  Speaker 2: it's it doesn't exist anymore. Just go to the site,
• 47:31
  Speaker 2: log out, log in, go to PGA, click projections. It'll
• 47:34
  Speaker 2: all be there. You can refresh it. You'll see the
• 47:36
  Speaker 2: time stands. We've revamped a lot of the site so
• 47:39
  Speaker 2: that you guys can see it value report for Lee.
• 47:42
  Speaker 2: It's all changed over, easier to view on desktop. This
• 47:45
  Speaker 2: is a free page that anybody can see anyway, So
• 47:47
  Speaker 2: hopefully that helps you out. Now going back, Alex, I
• 47:50
  Speaker 2: just want to go back here. I want to talk
• 47:53
  Speaker 2: about Rory for a second.
• 47:55
  Speaker 3: Before before we talk about Rory, I I want to
• 47:57
  Speaker 3: do one more kind of comp for Scotti. Yeah, it's
• 48:01
  Speaker 3: so again, like I think the limiting factor for his
• 48:05
  Speaker 3: ownership this week is not about the strength of the
• 48:07
  Speaker 3: six and low seven K range, because I agree there
• 48:10
  Speaker 3: are plenty of guys that people are gonna like playing,
• 48:12
  Speaker 3: but think of how many players in that like nine
• 48:16
  Speaker 3: K to ten K range people love and really want
• 48:19
  Speaker 3: to play. They're super enthusiastic about this week. The combination
• 48:22
  Speaker 3: of Oberg, Sewu and Henley is about the equivalent, almost
• 48:26
  Speaker 3: identical to Scotty j T. Keegan. So when you look
• 48:31
  Speaker 3: at it that way, I think people really want to
• 48:35
  Speaker 3: play JT. But also notice you can play JT with
• 48:39
  Speaker 3: that combination of those expensive guys. You can't play those
• 48:41
  Speaker 3: expensive guys with the combination of Scotty and JT or
• 48:44
  Speaker 3: let alone just Scotty. So again, like I think the
• 48:51
  Speaker 3: limiting factor this week is how many other players you
• 48:55
  Speaker 3: no longer have access to that people really want to
• 48:58
  Speaker 3: play if you go to the Scotty route, and that's
• 49:00
  Speaker 3: what's gonna keep him around twenty percent in my mind.
• 49:03
  Speaker 2: Yeah, knowing our ownership team here, I can tell you
• 49:05
  Speaker 2: just right off the hop of what's gonna change, Like
• 49:07
  Speaker 2: Scotty's gonna come down. I actually think Rory could come
• 49:10
  Speaker 2: down a little bit as well. We'll get to him
• 49:12
  Speaker 2: in a second. But Ludwig is gonna come up, Fitzpatrick
• 49:14
  Speaker 2: is gonna come down. See who's gonna come up? Henley's
• 49:17
  Speaker 2: gonna come up, And that's what takes away from Scotty
• 49:20
  Speaker 2: because once those builds start happening, you're not you're not
• 49:22
  Speaker 2: getting this build. You're at fifty nine to thirty three.
• 49:26
  Speaker 2: It's not happening. But lots of people are getting this build.
• 49:28
  Speaker 2: And then people say, oh, I thought you So they're
• 49:30
  Speaker 2: not playing that. They're not. They're they're playing these two
• 49:33
  Speaker 2: and then they're playing JT and then they're seeing, oh,
• 49:36
  Speaker 2: can I get a smallier respawn in there? And now
• 49:39
  Speaker 2: you see where, oh I can actually get them both
• 49:41
  Speaker 2: in there. And I still have almost seven kids, Like
• 49:43
  Speaker 2: that's what we showed you earlier on that build. So yeah,
• 49:45
  Speaker 2: these these numbers are gonna change. I highlighted it's a
• 49:48
  Speaker 2: rough draft at the top. So I'm with Alex some
• 49:51
  Speaker 2: I just I I still believe because I'm really using
• 49:53
  Speaker 2: like data in my mind, like a recency bias. I
• 49:56
  Speaker 2: guess you should always go with that. But it's just
• 49:58
  Speaker 2: like people are getting to the scott He builds. I
• 50:00
  Speaker 2: could see people talking about them. I could see them
• 50:02
  Speaker 2: sort of making it. They're validating it for themselves, right,
• 50:06
  Speaker 2: They're saying, Okay, well yeah, but Cole just about one
• 50:09
  Speaker 2: last week, and I know this is a different field.
• 50:10
  Speaker 2: Strength and all that, but he feels good. Nick Taylor's
• 50:13
  Speaker 2: too cheap. Now, I feel good about the rest of
• 50:15
  Speaker 2: my build. So even in like some of these other tournaments,
• 50:17
  Speaker 2: I do think you're gonna see it happen. But yeah,
• 50:20
  Speaker 2: a good call on that one. I do think though,
• 50:23
  Speaker 2: what changes the game a little bit is like starting
• 50:25
  Speaker 2: with a Ludwig where you have almost eight thousand, or
• 50:29
  Speaker 2: starting with the Rory, because this is where it gets interesting,
• 50:31
  Speaker 2: right I said you can't do it with Scotty. Well,
• 50:33
  Speaker 2: i haven't even got to below seven k yet and
• 50:36
  Speaker 2: I've got Ludwig. See when. Again, not saying this won't
• 50:38
  Speaker 2: be popular, it will be, especially because I told you
• 50:40
  Speaker 2: all these numbers are coming up in my opinion, and
• 50:43
  Speaker 2: I'm sure yours as well. But I'm just saying that
• 50:46
  Speaker 2: that is where the lineup starts to look better all
• 50:49
  Speaker 2: across the board, and you don't have to leave out
• 50:51
  Speaker 2: all the names. The interesting thing I was gonna say, though,
• 50:53
  Speaker 2: why I want to bring Rory up is because Rory
• 50:55
  Speaker 2: still has almost seventy eight hundred and there's a couple ways.
• 50:59
  Speaker 2: Again we're talking about how to leverage the common build.
• 51:00
  Speaker 2: At this point, we've showed you all the common versions,
• 51:02
  Speaker 2: including the Scotti ones. It's not my leverage, Lane, I'm
• 51:05
  Speaker 2: just noting it from this perspective. It is like remember
• 51:07
  Speaker 2: what I said earlier, nobody's going with like those seven
• 51:10
  Speaker 2: like the seven K range is just not getting ownership
• 51:12
  Speaker 2: like it usually does because of all the builds we
• 51:14
  Speaker 2: just showed you. Well, Rory, you could do I'm just
• 51:18
  Speaker 2: trying to see this quickly. You could do a JT
• 51:21
  Speaker 2: and spawn, skip the nine, skip the Scotti and still
• 51:24
  Speaker 2: end up in the sevens and maybe a high seven
• 51:26
  Speaker 2: and low sixes and have the low six is in
• 51:28
  Speaker 2: a completely different way where most of them will be
• 51:30
  Speaker 2: using a Scotti or the nine k's imagine. Just I'm
• 51:33
  Speaker 2: not going to finish it, but just noting this. If
• 51:35
  Speaker 2: truly the point Alex made earlier. But if Nick Taylor
• 51:39
  Speaker 2: is your guy, well, now you're in the seventy seven
• 51:41
  Speaker 2: hundred dollars range. You have Nick Taylor like the other lineups,
• 51:44
  Speaker 2: but you don't have any of the nuts. Nick Taylor
• 51:47
  Speaker 2: is mostly going to be with one of, if not
• 51:51
  Speaker 2: multiples of h see Wu Henley, Ludwig Scotty. This has
• 51:57
  Speaker 2: none of those, so it'd be a way that you
• 51:59
  Speaker 2: could get away with it. The second is if you
• 52:01
  Speaker 2: go old school. We used to do this with Scotty
• 52:04
  Speaker 2: and then he got too expensive. But look at seventy
• 52:06
  Speaker 2: seven hundred and look what's being overlooked. You could get
• 52:10
  Speaker 2: like all these dudes with Rory and just end it.
• 52:13
  Speaker 2: That's the end of your end of your lineup, could
• 52:15
  Speaker 2: be major winner Aaron Raye and all the guys that
• 52:18
  Speaker 2: aren't owned. Okay, like I'm just showing it, but I'm
• 52:21
  Speaker 2: saying that's another prime example. And yes, you do not
• 52:24
  Speaker 2: have Scotty se Wu, Henley Ludwig, et cetera. You don't
• 52:29
  Speaker 2: have JT or spawn, but you also don't have Nick Taylor,
• 52:34
  Speaker 2: cole Right and Brian Harmon like Keegan Bradley, all these
• 52:39
  Speaker 2: things that are being forced down low to make everything
• 52:41
  Speaker 2: else work. So to me, that's just very easily easy,
• 52:46
  Speaker 2: easy way that I found to move off the chalk
• 52:49
  Speaker 2: build right away. We're just looking at some of these bills.
• 52:51
  Speaker 2: And by the way, Rory pretty good at golf, so yeah,
• 52:54
  Speaker 2: that that's there as well.
• 52:55
  Speaker 3: Yeah, at aronomink I had I had Rory's ownership the
• 53:01
  Speaker 3: lowest in the industry and felt like I could go
• 53:03
  Speaker 3: lower and I should have gone lower because he ended
• 53:05
  Speaker 3: up being like eight percent owner something in single entry.
• 53:07
  Speaker 3: So I could definitely see him slipping into that ten
• 53:10
  Speaker 3: percent maybe even lower range again this week in a
• 53:14
  Speaker 3: similar pricing dynamic. And I think part of that is
• 53:16
  Speaker 3: because Rory's never won here, and he's never won here
• 53:19
  Speaker 3: for a kind of a predictable reason, right, His number
• 53:24
  Speaker 3: one separating skill versus the other elite players in the
• 53:26
  Speaker 3: world is his distance, and distance is mitigated here when
• 53:30
  Speaker 3: you look at his historic strokes, game profile. The things
• 53:34
  Speaker 3: that are really kind of accentuated here, approach, play around
• 53:38
  Speaker 3: the green, play, even putting often haven't stacked up with
• 53:43
  Speaker 3: those skill sets of the other elite players in the world.
• 53:47
  Speaker 3: They do now, and he's now one in the past
• 53:51
  Speaker 3: few years. Think you know TBC Sawgrass two years ago.
• 53:55
  Speaker 3: That's of course, that really diminishes distance off the team,
• 53:59
  Speaker 3: really accentuates the same skills that are accentuated this week.
• 54:02
  Speaker 3: He was one back to back Masters and another course
• 54:05
  Speaker 3: that diminishes the predictive value of driving distance and really
• 54:09
  Speaker 3: accentuates the rest of the game. And so he's just
• 54:11
  Speaker 3: a more complete golfer now than he's ever been before.
• 54:14
  Speaker 3: And I do think he's now better suited to win
• 54:16
  Speaker 3: a Jacks place than he's ever been in and hopefully
• 54:18
  Speaker 3: the ownership does stay down him because I agree with you.
• 54:20
  Speaker 3: I think he's a great play.
• 54:22
  Speaker 2: Yeah, smaller field, I don't think is much to roll
• 54:24
  Speaker 2: through there, but I think we've give him some really
• 54:25
  Speaker 2: good options to sort of leverage the chalk Bill, just
• 54:28
  Speaker 2: based off of that one thing I will say that
• 54:29
  Speaker 2: stands out. Everybody reads things differently, and that's why I
• 54:32
  Speaker 2: always have been an advocate of the Stone, you know.
• 54:34
  Speaker 2: For those that don't know, And again we we mentioned
• 54:36
  Speaker 2: it last week, but it's coming out soon. We can
• 54:39
  Speaker 2: give one spoiler. The Big Guy event. We had a
• 54:41
  Speaker 2: couple of weekends we were trying to get it for.
• 54:43
  Speaker 2: It is going to be the Friday, August twenty first
• 54:46
  Speaker 2: was the only one we could get it. For full
• 54:48
  Speaker 2: details we'll come out this week, but just want to
• 54:50
  Speaker 2: let everybody know that. But the Big Guy brought over
• 54:52
  Speaker 2: the Stone. It was called Rosetta Stone at the time.
• 54:54
  Speaker 2: Obviously it goes with that, and we teased like the
• 54:56
  Speaker 2: old social network when Justin Timberlake's like drop the the
• 55:01
  Speaker 2: just Facebook, and it was like drop Rosetta, just the
• 55:04
  Speaker 2: Stone we'll keep the but it's like, let's brand it
• 55:07
  Speaker 2: our own thing. And then we worked on you know,
• 55:09
  Speaker 2: he always wanted to have it interactive in ways that
• 55:11
  Speaker 2: we could do it. That's why we're showcasing this so much.
• 55:13
  Speaker 2: But I love having it all on one screen, Alex
• 55:15
  Speaker 2: and one thing that always stands out to me, like
• 55:17
  Speaker 2: I just look at it naturally. It's funny we talk
• 55:19
  Speaker 2: about these waves so often. Is no, it's even crazier.
• 55:23
  Speaker 2: Scottie pm AM, Ludwig PMAM, all a lot of guys,
• 55:28
  Speaker 2: but just up note Henley see Wu. Almost all the
• 55:33
  Speaker 2: main guys that we're already gonna be the most popular
• 55:36
  Speaker 2: also have those PMM times. And it's only because I'm
• 55:39
  Speaker 2: saying not that it's gonna have the advantage, but if
• 55:41
  Speaker 2: that conversation picks up steam, it gets that much easier.
• 55:46
  Speaker 2: I never I didn't even look at this before coming
• 55:48
  Speaker 2: onto the show, So now I'm trying to see Straka's
• 55:51
  Speaker 2: not who else? Gary Woodland pm AM, don't tell me
• 55:56
  Speaker 2: Nick Taylor is? I know Nick Taylor's in the morning,
• 55:58
  Speaker 2: So there's that writing pm AM. Eric Cole not quite,
• 56:06
  Speaker 2: but he's eleven fifty eight thirty five, he's he's there,
• 56:08
  Speaker 2: so it is interesting that you could build like the
• 56:11
  Speaker 2: version that we had earlier wouldn't be that far off
• 56:14
  Speaker 2: from a pm AM already right and just went with that.
• 56:17
  Speaker 2: So yeah, I guess what's uh the AK guys, let
• 56:19
  Speaker 2: me check Spawn is in the morning. JT is ten
• 56:23
  Speaker 2: twenty five five, so not as good there either, So
• 56:26
  Speaker 2: at least someone interesting on those guys. But anyway, just
• 56:29
  Speaker 2: just of note, is there any thoughts on that, because
• 56:31
  Speaker 2: that's just something that just stood out to me right
• 56:32
  Speaker 2: away when you see that, does that sort of make
• 56:34
  Speaker 2: you you think of anything different? Yeah, I know how
• 56:37
  Speaker 2: it works. Thanks stat. We appreciate you. I'm saying I'm
• 56:39
  Speaker 2: just doing it for the sake of looking at the
• 56:41
  Speaker 2: chalkiest guys though I'm not one to see it. I
• 56:44
  Speaker 2: just want to see as you scroll the board. But yes,
• 56:46
  Speaker 2: thank you.
• 56:47
  Speaker 3: Yeah, it definitely means that we could see like crazy
• 56:51
  Speaker 3: steam on Oberg and Henley. It probably will keep JT
• 56:56
  Speaker 3: in Spawn a little bit in check. I think we
• 56:58
  Speaker 3: both I think they're in the opposite wave unless we
• 57:02
  Speaker 3: just missed them. But yeah, so the other thing there
• 57:06
  Speaker 3: is like this could be a week where the secondary
• 57:09
  Speaker 3: chalk that's in the correct wave really really steams and
• 57:13
  Speaker 3: becomes a mega chalk. If you remember, way back to
• 57:15
  Speaker 3: the opening week of the season, the Sony Open, Ryan
• 57:18
  Speaker 3: Girard was projected at like fifteen percent around the industry.
• 57:22
  Speaker 3: He was in a good wave. He was the secondary
• 57:24
  Speaker 3: chalk'll pivot off of the big chalk who was in
• 57:27
  Speaker 3: the bad wave. He ended up like thirty seven percent
• 57:29
  Speaker 3: in single entries, over forty percent in some of the
• 57:32
  Speaker 3: higher stake stuff. And I was like, how'd you get there? Was? Oh,
• 57:34
  Speaker 3: he was the chalk in the good wave that people
• 57:37
  Speaker 3: didn't think was going to be mega chalk. So like
• 57:39
  Speaker 3: anyone who has, you know, a hard fast rule like
• 57:41
  Speaker 3: I don't play thirty percent guys or I don't play
• 57:43
  Speaker 3: twenty five percent guys in PGA, Well, they didn't think
• 57:46
  Speaker 3: they were getting that, and so you get the crazy steam.
• 57:48
  Speaker 3: This might be a week where we see that. And
• 57:50
  Speaker 3: so could definitely see my ownership projections, our ownership projections
• 57:54
  Speaker 3: over FTAN Fantasy changing quite a bit from now to
• 57:58
  Speaker 3: late tonight.
• 57:59
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I agree, and I know our as well. And
• 58:01
  Speaker 2: this is what he said was you could sort it
• 58:02
  Speaker 2: by that. I would actually sort it by this. This
• 58:04
  Speaker 2: is how you'd want to sort it at because I'm
• 58:05
  Speaker 2: looking at it from this what I'm trying to see
• 58:08
  Speaker 2: any given week, not just this one. But this does
• 58:10
  Speaker 2: tell you the story of like what the initials say
• 58:12
  Speaker 2: is like if you're sorting by ownership. And again, it's
• 58:14
  Speaker 2: not right because this is the rough draft, as I'll
• 58:17
  Speaker 2: keep saying, but we will get it right. To Alex's point,
• 58:19
  Speaker 2: I'd already start to see things like this that stand out,
• 58:22
  Speaker 2: and it's like, Scotty, I'll give you another thought in
• 58:25
  Speaker 2: a second, but Scotty Ludwig can't lay by the way,
• 58:28
  Speaker 2: could be course history guy that you know picks up
• 58:30
  Speaker 2: steam here. You saw what we talked about earlier Henley
• 58:34
  Speaker 2: see Wou. I think we said woodland at some point
• 58:38
  Speaker 2: as well, and he's going to be in there somewhere,
• 58:39
  Speaker 2: but just noting it. I would sort of by this
• 58:40
  Speaker 2: to see and then i'd see the wave and then
• 58:42
  Speaker 2: we could adjust it from there. But I will say,
• 58:45
  Speaker 2: what is your thoughts now? Just slipping back if that
• 58:49
  Speaker 2: even was the way like fits and can't lay they?
• 58:53
  Speaker 2: Can they really be that high owned in this spot
• 58:57
  Speaker 2: when I mean, like I guess can't la beause the
• 58:59
  Speaker 2: course history. But one of those two got to come
• 59:01
  Speaker 2: way down, I think, especially with those other guys around them. Right,
• 59:04
  Speaker 2: So what what's your thoughts?
• 59:05
  Speaker 3: I don't know. I've got I've got can't Lay at
• 59:07
  Speaker 3: fifteen percent and Fitzpatrick at eighteen percent, and I'm more
• 59:11
  Speaker 3: likely to move them up than down, especially can't Lay.
• 59:13
  Speaker 3: I think can't Lay can as you said, like you
• 59:15
  Speaker 3: can get some serious course history steam on him. Plus
• 59:18
  Speaker 3: the fact that he's in the good wave, like that
• 59:20
  Speaker 3: could easily become twenty twenty two to twenty five percent
• 59:22
  Speaker 3: in my mind.
• 59:24
  Speaker 2: Man, I don't know. Now I'm getting second thoughts.
• 59:27
  Speaker 3: Now, if that happened, it was taking from guy's point,
• 59:32
  Speaker 3: it would be taking from guys who are in the
• 59:34
  Speaker 3: wrong way. So I mean that Rory might be like
• 59:36
  Speaker 3: six percent. I think Cam's in the wrong wave. Cam
• 59:38
  Speaker 3: might be ten percent, twelve percent, something like that. So
• 59:42
  Speaker 3: it would have to, like to your point, it has
• 59:45
  Speaker 3: to come from somewhere, and it's going to mean that
• 59:48
  Speaker 3: somebody is is at like a surprisingly low number that
• 59:51
  Speaker 3: if you knew ahead of time, he'd be like, oh,
• 59:53
  Speaker 3: this is a play that I want to do, regardless
• 59:55
  Speaker 3: of what wave he's in. So yeah, I think I
• 59:57
  Speaker 3: think that's really intriguing. He' said, Like, you know, this
• 59:59
  Speaker 3: might be one of the rare weeks where I build
• 1:00:02
  Speaker 3: you know, a five to one or a four to
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 3: two stack where I'm saying, Okay, my elite player is
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 3: good enough to go win this tournament from the wrong wave,
• 1:00:11
  Speaker 3: but from my value guys in terms of getting them
• 1:00:13
  Speaker 3: through the cut and getting them in position where they're
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 3: also contending, then I want to go exclusively from the
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 3: good wave or something like that. So definitely a lot
• 1:00:21
  Speaker 3: of different kind of strategies we have to kind of
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 3: toy with this week, because that's the that's the downside
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 3: to these smaller fields is you kind of can't build
• 1:00:30
  Speaker 3: a super contrarian build within one stack because then it's
• 1:00:34
  Speaker 3: like it's you know, you're almost down to the Tour championship.
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 3: If you cut this field in half, you've got like
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 3: thirty five guys to choose from. You're not going to
• 1:00:42
  Speaker 3: find many, you know, really low owned guys out of
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 3: thirty five.
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 2: This is another one that's broken, right people's brains, like
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 2: and not U stat just people you brought up a
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 2: good point. I want to hammer everybody else on, like, oh,
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 2: it was everyone's double digit. Yeah, everyone's ten. Ninety percent
• 1:00:54
  Speaker 2: of the people aren't playing them, like people are lost
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 2: on ownership. It's just blown their mind. In PGA golf,
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 2: you have to build a lineup. It's not one person.
• 1:01:02
  Speaker 2: And here's an example. Maybe Alex won't give me Matt
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 2: Fitzpatrick and can't lay and I get the can't a
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 2: side for sure. Fitzpatrick with Xander se Wou Henley, I
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 2: don't know. I still think he could come down some.
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 2: But my point would be like, okay, Ben Griffin, then
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 2: let's do Ben Griffin at nine k flat. Let's call
• 1:01:18
  Speaker 2: him ten, and let's say if the others do really
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 2: explode and you end up seeing them at twenty five
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 2: on them, Ben Griffin at double digits. Ten is not
• 1:01:28
  Speaker 2: the same as Henley at almost thirty or something, or
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 2: see Wu at almost thirty. That is leverage right there
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 2: in itself, and it's like five hundred bucks less, three
• 1:01:36
  Speaker 2: hundred bucks less and depending on the guy that you're on.
• 1:01:39
  Speaker 2: So I love that too when it gets brought up,
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 2: because it's like, yes, everyone's gonna have some ownership, but
• 1:01:45
  Speaker 2: it's you know, you're looking for these opportunities and trying
• 1:01:48
  Speaker 2: to find that. So I think, yeah, Like, just looking
• 1:01:50
  Speaker 2: at the board here, if we were sticking with PM
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 2: and just conversating again, I'm not saying that's exactly right,
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 2: just noting it. I could see Ben Griffin and min
• 1:01:59
  Speaker 2: Wu being like, these numbers are lower because it's just
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 2: gonna get ballooned up in here, right, You're gonna have Ludwig,
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 2: They're all right here, Ludwig, Xander, Fitzpatrick, Sea Wu Henley
• 1:02:11
  Speaker 2: can't leay. They gotta happen before people get to we
• 1:02:14
  Speaker 2: saw it builds. Don't get the Ben Griffin and min Wu,
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 2: the bloated numbers like Alex said, could still even be
• 1:02:20
  Speaker 2: there on the can't Lais and the Fitzes mixed in
• 1:02:21
  Speaker 2: with the other ones. Yes, some will be higher than others.
• 1:02:24
  Speaker 2: To my previous point, but at some point that's where
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 2: I'm saying, you gotta start to find that stuff Like
• 1:02:29
  Speaker 2: Bobby Mack cannot have much ownership. He's in the same way. Again.
• 1:02:33
  Speaker 2: These are just for the wave builds, but they don't
• 1:02:35
  Speaker 2: fit the builds and they don't fit the zones that
• 1:02:38
  Speaker 2: we're talking about. So that's why it's really interesting to
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 2: me to look at it for a hole when we're
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 2: doing that and again I'll wait and see, but I
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 2: don't think all of Zander fits and can't lay can
• 1:02:50
  Speaker 2: be in the same ballpark as these two. When it
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 2: gets solved later on today, I think Seawoo and Henley
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 2: are gonna take off. And literally, like I said earlier,
• 1:02:59
  Speaker 2: I think it's in our the well. But you can build.
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 2: See wou Henley can't lays and still have seven K
• 1:03:04
  Speaker 2: left over and change. So I think this is really
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 2: not only do we love this week from my golf
• 1:03:10
  Speaker 2: course perspective, which is what we were talking about earlier,
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 2: but I always love this week from a DFS perspective,
• 1:03:15
  Speaker 2: and I think, like you said, it's just as you
• 1:03:16
  Speaker 2: can build. The more you spend time on stuff like
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 2: this and be able to look into it and figure
• 1:03:20
  Speaker 2: this stuff out, the better your your lineups can become. Again,
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 2: what they actually turn into, we don't know, but as
• 1:03:25
  Speaker 2: long as you know you're building them out good, your
• 1:03:27
  Speaker 2: your job is done. On Thursday. That that was my
• 1:03:30
  Speaker 2: one from earlier. Somebody said.
• 1:03:33
  Speaker 1: This.
• 1:03:34
  Speaker 2: Unfortunately, I cannot check my lineups on DraftKings until the
• 1:03:36
  Speaker 2: tournament is over because if I do, basically if I
• 1:03:38
  Speaker 2: you look, they inevitably start to crash. It's like, it's
• 1:03:41
  Speaker 2: only because you looked that they crash, right, it's the
• 1:03:44
  Speaker 2: job is done on Thursdays, right Thursday at lock when
• 1:03:48
  Speaker 2: the lineups, when it starts off, there's you know, that's
• 1:03:50
  Speaker 2: your your job is done. It's not happening because you
• 1:03:53
  Speaker 2: looked at your DraftKings app. It's not happening because they're
• 1:03:56
  Speaker 2: nineteen point five percent on DraftKings dot com. It's just happens,
• 1:04:00
  Speaker 2: and it's happening to them too. By the way, if
• 1:04:02
  Speaker 2: your lineup is going down someone else, that's a you know,
• 1:04:04
  Speaker 2: a pro golfer I know for them, but I'm saying
• 1:04:06
  Speaker 2: at the end of the day, they work their ass
• 1:04:07
  Speaker 2: off to get there. It's not the result they want either.
• 1:04:09
  Speaker 2: I promise you they would rather be performing well for
• 1:04:12
  Speaker 2: your lineup. It's just they're not right now. So yeah,
• 1:04:15
  Speaker 2: that's for sure. The M word it does not actually exist.
• 1:04:18
  Speaker 2: It's just the thing that people like to use as
• 1:04:20
  Speaker 2: an excuse to blame their poor result or whatever it
• 1:04:22
  Speaker 2: might be. But go ahead to Alex anything else you
• 1:04:24
  Speaker 2: want to add at all.
• 1:04:26
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I also think based on you know, all the
• 1:04:28
  Speaker 3: guys that we just ran through, Tommy's going to be
• 1:04:31
  Speaker 3: low owned. He's gonna come He's definitely gonna come down
• 1:04:32
  Speaker 3: in my ownership as one of the few guys in
• 1:04:35
  Speaker 3: the wrong wave here. So yeah, I think.
• 1:04:39
  Speaker 2: Maybe it's maybe it ends up be in the right
• 1:04:40
  Speaker 2: wave and we roll it and we run like Rory.
• 1:04:43
  Speaker 2: You can get Rory Fleetwood, Decky j. Chock still fits
• 1:04:48
  Speaker 2: if you're doing a Rory JT that still works.
• 1:04:51
  Speaker 3: And throw Cam in that mix, like, man, there there
• 1:04:55
  Speaker 3: could be some really really good names that are like
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 3: six eight percent on its just like, oh my god,
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 3: why didn't I just do that? And so that's gonna
• 1:05:03
  Speaker 3: be don't.
• 1:05:03
  Speaker 2: Forget the five to one. If you're doing the other way,
• 1:05:05
  Speaker 2: you can get JT in the five to one. He
• 1:05:07
  Speaker 2: won the PGA Championship on the wrong wave. He made
• 1:05:10
  Speaker 2: a run at the Players that year for the wrong wave.
• 1:05:12
  Speaker 2: It's like he's always a guy that shows up in
• 1:05:15
  Speaker 2: any weather, so maybe he's still.
• 1:05:16
  Speaker 3: So that's that's a really interesting one because that I
• 1:05:20
  Speaker 3: wouldn't do because one of the like things that has
• 1:05:23
  Speaker 3: surprised me throughout this year is even when ownership dramatically
• 1:05:29
  Speaker 3: is affected by whether and wave preference, the really chalky
• 1:05:33
  Speaker 3: guys in the quote unquote wrong wave have kept their
• 1:05:36
  Speaker 3: ownership right. So like, if let's let's say, you know,
• 1:05:40
  Speaker 3: everyone in the right wave is projected at fifteen percent,
• 1:05:43
  Speaker 3: they end up twenty five percent. The guys in the
• 1:05:45
  Speaker 3: wrong wave, who are projected at twenty five percent, they
• 1:05:47
  Speaker 3: don't drop to fifteen percent, they stay at twenty five percent.
• 1:05:50
  Speaker 3: And so I don't think that we will see JT
• 1:05:53
  Speaker 3: come in lower than expected just because he's in the
• 1:05:55
  Speaker 3: wrong wave. And part of that is because a lot
• 1:05:58
  Speaker 3: of people are doing what you're kind of alluding to there,
• 1:06:01
  Speaker 3: which is they're saying, well, I'll just play the chalkky
• 1:06:04
  Speaker 3: guy that I really really like, even though he's in
• 1:06:06
  Speaker 3: the wrong wave, and then stack and to me like, okay, well,
• 1:06:09
  Speaker 3: now you're making the the guy who's already probably over owned,
• 1:06:13
  Speaker 3: not because he doesn't project one, not because he's not
• 1:06:15
  Speaker 3: a good play, but simply because he's just two owned
• 1:06:20
  Speaker 3: for you know, the variants of golf, and now you're
• 1:06:23
  Speaker 3: playing him in a poorly constructed way and you know,
• 1:06:26
  Speaker 3: an anti correlated way. So, uh, that's one thing I
• 1:06:29
  Speaker 3: wouldn't do, just because of the pattern we've seen this
• 1:06:31
  Speaker 3: year with the way ownership works on these trucky guys
• 1:06:34
  Speaker 3: in the wrong side.
• 1:06:35
  Speaker 2: We'll have to wait and see, but I will say,
• 1:06:37
  Speaker 2: you know, the flip side of that, or my counter
• 1:06:39
  Speaker 2: argument would just be that it's it's it's saying me
• 1:06:41
  Speaker 2: saying that, you know, JT was going to be so
• 1:06:44
  Speaker 2: high owned. And then if this wave stuff does take,
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 2: like the move to the forefront where people are rolling
• 1:06:50
  Speaker 2: that way, it's not like JT fits a bunch of
• 1:06:53
  Speaker 2: those bloated builds, right like if you go Ludwig see
• 1:06:57
  Speaker 2: Wu Henley, you're not putting JT in that right, Like
• 1:07:00
  Speaker 2: very fair, Yeah, that's very fair example. So and like
• 1:07:02
  Speaker 2: you said, if you truly believe people are gonna do
• 1:07:04
  Speaker 2: this now and say, well, i's we'll see what he
• 1:07:06
  Speaker 2: comes in at, but I'll trust him to come in
• 1:07:08
  Speaker 2: over the top as a way to get different with
• 1:07:10
  Speaker 2: Seewoo and Handley, Okay, not fitting in there. If it's
• 1:07:13
  Speaker 2: you know, the Scotti builds, he can fit, but he's
• 1:07:16
  Speaker 2: the only guy, and then the lineup gets really tricky
• 1:07:18
  Speaker 2: after that. It's kind of got to be like a
• 1:07:20
  Speaker 2: Ludwig JT start or something, And even then you still
• 1:07:24
  Speaker 2: have seventy nine. So it's like my point was, if
• 1:07:27
  Speaker 2: he ends up being a guy that people loved but
• 1:07:29
  Speaker 2: then don't like because of the weather, and he ends
• 1:07:32
  Speaker 2: up coming down to like ten or eleven or something
• 1:07:34
  Speaker 2: like that. It's not nearly as bad as if he's
• 1:07:36
  Speaker 2: pushing fifteen to twenty. And then I'm like, Okay, you're
• 1:07:38
  Speaker 2: right that that's where I wouldn't really want to do that.
• 1:07:40
  Speaker 2: Like you say, you're almost doing something unique, but then
• 1:07:43
  Speaker 2: flipping it into the bad way of like doing it
• 1:07:46
  Speaker 2: in the worst way. So yeah, no, fully fully aligned
• 1:07:49
  Speaker 2: on a lot of thoughts today here, and I think,
• 1:07:50
  Speaker 2: like just in general, some really good concepts to go through.
• 1:07:53
  Speaker 2: What are we thinking for one and done this week?
• 1:07:57
  Speaker 2: Good question?
• 1:07:58
  Speaker 3: Do you have any strong thought outside of the gate?
• 1:08:01
  Speaker 2: I guess, like there's a couple things of like you know,
• 1:08:03
  Speaker 2: there is some opportunity to pick things up here, but
• 1:08:07
  Speaker 2: like I guess it's still a signature and you got
• 1:08:09
  Speaker 2: to get this one right. So it's like, what's your
• 1:08:11
  Speaker 2: everybody's in a different position based on where their lineup is. Now,
• 1:08:14
  Speaker 2: who do you think is going to be the most
• 1:08:15
  Speaker 2: popular this week? Besides obviously can't Lay's history, Probably Scotty.
• 1:08:20
  Speaker 2: If people have him, they'll feel very comfortable pulling the
• 1:08:22
  Speaker 2: trigger here for you know, back to back wins and
• 1:08:24
  Speaker 2: a third before that, like any other thoughts.
• 1:08:26
  Speaker 3: Though, Yeah, only eighteen percent of people in the in
• 1:08:29
  Speaker 3: the PME still have Scotty available, so he can't be
• 1:08:32
  Speaker 3: crazy owned. But thirty eight percent still have Ludwig, forty
• 1:08:36
  Speaker 3: five percent still have Fits, thirty six percent still have Henley,
• 1:08:39
  Speaker 3: only twenty one percent still have Sea Wu. I'll tell
• 1:08:42
  Speaker 3: you who the major trock is. Fifty eight percent of
• 1:08:45
  Speaker 3: people still have Patrick Cantley.
• 1:08:46
  Speaker 2: Yeah, so we do, can't. I would imagine he's the highest.
• 1:08:49
  Speaker 2: But I would also say one interesting thing, and this
• 1:08:51
  Speaker 2: is why the game Want to Done is so intriguing sometimes,
• 1:08:54
  Speaker 2: like it's so crazy, like the nuances that matter, Like
• 1:08:57
  Speaker 2: if what I'm gonna say Scotty, let's say he was
• 1:09:00
  Speaker 2: thirty five percent available, it would mean a little bit
• 1:09:03
  Speaker 2: like that would to me would be meaningfully different than
• 1:09:06
  Speaker 2: when there's only eighteen because well those people can go
• 1:09:10
  Speaker 2: can't lay and then you know, and then still save Scotty.
• 1:09:12
  Speaker 2: It's also like it's I don't think people are as
• 1:09:16
  Speaker 2: high as like on anywhere, for like right now, if
• 1:09:18
  Speaker 2: you got a guy coming off two wins here plus
• 1:09:21
  Speaker 2: a third the year before that, where it's like and
• 1:09:23
  Speaker 2: it's Scotty Scheffler, It's like, are they really gonna want
• 1:09:25
  Speaker 2: to save him for us open or something else? And
• 1:09:28
  Speaker 2: just hope are they just gonna say I'll do it
• 1:09:30
  Speaker 2: now because I still got him and you know, he's
• 1:09:32
  Speaker 2: kind of one of the I also know too, if
• 1:09:33
  Speaker 2: you're looking at any one and Done right now, you
• 1:09:35
  Speaker 2: look at the top and most of your guys are
• 1:09:37
  Speaker 2: blocked out, You're like, oh, I can't click them anymore.
• 1:09:39
  Speaker 2: I've used them. So that eighteen percent could be rolling
• 1:09:42
  Speaker 2: Scotty this week at a high clip. I don't know
• 1:09:45
  Speaker 2: what percentage exactly, but I'm saying he could end up
• 1:09:47
  Speaker 2: being up there even you know, in the Can't Laze
• 1:09:50
  Speaker 2: that Can't It'll be the highest for sure, But I
• 1:09:52
  Speaker 2: think I think Scotty could be higher than we think
• 1:09:54
  Speaker 2: based on that in that one and Done. Yeah.
• 1:09:56
  Speaker 3: So this this is I think the like the really
• 1:10:00
  Speaker 3: fun part of thinking about when I'm done, which is
• 1:10:02
  Speaker 3: just the game theory aspect, and it's not just about
• 1:10:05
  Speaker 3: the you know, what percent on are they going to
• 1:10:07
  Speaker 3: be this week? It's also what have they done for
• 1:10:09
  Speaker 3: people in the past? So if you get a Scotty
• 1:10:12
  Speaker 3: victory at this point in the year, it's crazy valuable
• 1:10:14
  Speaker 3: because eighty two percent of people have already used him,
• 1:10:17
  Speaker 3: which means eighty two percent of people who use Scotty
• 1:10:20
  Speaker 3: did not get a win at a signature event or
• 1:10:23
  Speaker 3: a major at one of these like huge perse events.
• 1:10:26
  Speaker 3: So if you find the Scotty win, that's a huge,
• 1:10:29
  Speaker 3: huge light up on the field. And conversely, like it
• 1:10:33
  Speaker 3: doesn't matter a ton if you get a really low
• 1:10:35
  Speaker 3: owned win this week from a Rory or a cam
• 1:10:38
  Speaker 3: Young because they already have big money wins at ownership
• 1:10:42
  Speaker 3: Rory at augusta cam Jung multiple times. So yeah, that
• 1:10:47
  Speaker 3: part of it's like a really interesting way to think
• 1:10:49
  Speaker 3: about it. If you still have Scotty, I think he's
• 1:10:53
  Speaker 3: probably the best pick on the board because this is
• 1:10:55
  Speaker 3: a tournament that he fits so so well, like he
• 1:10:59
  Speaker 3: is just the ultimate at Mierfields Village golfer. At the
• 1:11:03
  Speaker 3: same time, let's say you know seventy five percent, let's
• 1:11:07
  Speaker 3: say he's twelve percent owned this week, that means only
• 1:11:10
  Speaker 3: six percent of people can still use Scotty in any
• 1:11:13
  Speaker 3: giving forward, And I do think Scotty's gonna be quite
• 1:11:16
  Speaker 3: popular this week among those eighteen percent who still have him.
• 1:11:20
  Speaker 3: So if he doesn't win this week and you're able
• 1:11:23
  Speaker 3: to find a win later in the year from him,
• 1:11:25
  Speaker 3: you know, at the Travelers or at the US Open
• 1:11:28
  Speaker 3: or the Open Championship one of those, like my goodness,
• 1:11:31
  Speaker 3: you are in business with a let's say, a five
• 1:11:34
  Speaker 3: percent Scotty win when nobody else in the field has
• 1:11:37
  Speaker 3: the Scotty win, Like that would be awesome. So I
• 1:11:42
  Speaker 3: very much like the idea of being like super aggressive
• 1:11:44
  Speaker 3: and continuing to hold out and just let that Scotty
• 1:11:47
  Speaker 3: percent get as low as possible and then take him
• 1:11:50
  Speaker 3: and just hope he hasn't won bye by that point.
• 1:11:52
  Speaker 3: But I also can't possibly argue with using him when
• 1:11:56
  Speaker 3: he he basically can't be fifteen percent owned this week,
• 1:12:00
  Speaker 3: and you have him at a phenomenal course where the
• 1:12:02
  Speaker 3: where the wind would be super valuable already. So I
• 1:12:05
  Speaker 3: think if you still have him, you probably use him.
• 1:12:07
  Speaker 3: But maybe if you're further down the board and you
• 1:12:09
  Speaker 3: need to be contrariing, like you're one of your paths
• 1:12:11
  Speaker 3: is I'm just gonna wait until I can use Scotty
• 1:12:13
  Speaker 3: at four percent uh uh in an elevated purse event,
• 1:12:17
  Speaker 3: so so for.
• 1:12:19
  Speaker 2: Me then I don't know we have again, I don't
• 1:12:20
  Speaker 2: we have left who who?
• 1:12:22
  Speaker 3: I don't have Scotty available? We use him at the players, right,
• 1:12:24
  Speaker 3: who do we have left?
• 1:12:25
  Speaker 2: That's kind of like in conversation up top.
• 1:12:28
  Speaker 3: We've got Rory Oberg, Schoffley se Wu can't lay who
• 1:12:33
  Speaker 3: I don't want to use, JT. Who I don't want
• 1:12:34
  Speaker 3: to use because they're gonna.
• 1:12:36
  Speaker 2: Be yeah, even the popular because I think the conversation
• 1:12:38
  Speaker 2: is solid. But like Xander to me someone interesting. From
• 1:12:42
  Speaker 2: the Scotty perspective, it's like, Okay, he's definitely capable. He's
• 1:12:45
  Speaker 2: an all around type player. Even a results here have
• 1:12:47
  Speaker 2: been like yes, people will see them as the twenty
• 1:12:49
  Speaker 2: fifth and the twenty one, the eighths and that. It's like,
• 1:12:51
  Speaker 2: but those are so close, you know the margin of
• 1:12:53
  Speaker 2: error and how thin it is, and like, you know,
• 1:12:55
  Speaker 2: one of the eighteenth is skewed because I think the
• 1:12:57
  Speaker 2: eighteenth was the year that he went like eight over
• 1:13:00
  Speaker 2: on day one and then battled back to finish top
• 1:13:02
  Speaker 2: eighteen or something. But my point being, it's like he
• 1:13:05
  Speaker 2: hasn't got anyone anything substantial. If you get that here,
• 1:13:09
  Speaker 2: not only will he not be owned like a Scottie
• 1:13:11
  Speaker 2: or a Cantley or some of the other ones, Like
• 1:13:13
  Speaker 2: he takes them out, but he also gets you the
• 1:13:15
  Speaker 2: best Xander number that you're gonna have, and like, that's
• 1:13:18
  Speaker 2: really solid there. I guess the other one was like Ludwig,
• 1:13:23
  Speaker 2: but again, what's you know, very capable has the upside.
• 1:13:27
  Speaker 2: I feel like some will still go to him because
• 1:13:29
  Speaker 2: he's like just who they have left. But I don't know,
• 1:13:31
  Speaker 2: do you have a preference on Ludwig or Xander.
• 1:13:35
  Speaker 3: I think I prefer Xander just because we we do
• 1:13:38
  Speaker 3: know Ludvig is gonna be a popular option this week.
• 1:13:41
  Speaker 3: I can very easily seex andanerw slipping through the cracks
• 1:13:43
  Speaker 3: and being quite low owned, and you know, he doesn't
• 1:13:45
  Speaker 3: have the kind of event that that we're already chasing from,
• 1:13:49
  Speaker 3: you know, people ahead of us. So I think Xander's
• 1:13:52
  Speaker 3: my preference. And then the other thought is, I think
• 1:13:54
  Speaker 3: you can also get somewhat contrarian this week and go
• 1:13:57
  Speaker 3: down to like, uh, let's say a Scepstraka or Justin
• 1:14:01
  Speaker 3: Rose someone like that, because the win equity for those
• 1:14:04
  Speaker 3: guys is still pretty good this week, and you know,
• 1:14:09
  Speaker 3: I think for most of us in one and done contests.
• 1:14:12
  Speaker 3: We do have limited options available at the very top
• 1:14:15
  Speaker 3: of the board at this point in the year, and
• 1:14:17
  Speaker 3: so going going to that range this week, I don't
• 1:14:20
  Speaker 3: think it's a terrible idea, especially if you're way behind
• 1:14:23
  Speaker 3: it and you need a very contrarian win.
• 1:14:25
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I wouldn't hate that either. Anything from the betting breakdown.
• 1:14:29
  Speaker 3: This week, I don't have any outrights yet. I do
• 1:14:32
  Speaker 3: think I'll end up with some, but I because I
• 1:14:34
  Speaker 3: saw like the potential wave split, I did want to
• 1:14:37
  Speaker 3: wait and see how that shacks out, and and so
• 1:14:41
  Speaker 3: hopefully I'll have some some outrights posted in the next
• 1:14:43
  Speaker 3: few hours.
• 1:14:44
  Speaker 2: All right, let me just double check here. Do you
• 1:14:46
  Speaker 2: have your lane ready?
• 1:14:49
  Speaker 3: Do you have it perfectly right it? Because I have.
• 1:14:52
  Speaker 3: I have several options, and yeah, I'm not I'm not
• 1:14:56
  Speaker 3: sold on which one I want yet.
• 1:14:58
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I've already got mine and I don't care who
• 1:15:00
  Speaker 2: does what. I'm going six to oh pm am, And
• 1:15:03
  Speaker 2: I'm sticking with what I talked about earlier. This from
• 1:15:05
  Speaker 2: my main my two hundred dollars single untry or whatever.
• 1:15:08
  Speaker 2: But I'm definitely in maybe other places too, but I'm
• 1:15:10
  Speaker 2: definitely gonna be playing into that it's not even if
• 1:15:13
  Speaker 2: it's right or wrong. It's like there's already a lot
• 1:15:15
  Speaker 2: of highly projected plays. I can find other ways to
• 1:15:17
  Speaker 2: get different through roster construction. And then on top of it,
• 1:15:20
  Speaker 2: like I said, you could get a storm perfect storm
• 1:15:22
  Speaker 2: without even having weather of like just where it could
• 1:15:25
  Speaker 2: work into your favor of like those guys play the
• 1:15:27
  Speaker 2: best or marginally ahead where it's enough to put them
• 1:15:30
  Speaker 2: at the front of the pack, and then those tea
• 1:15:32
  Speaker 2: times on Saturday end up being more in their favor
• 1:15:35
  Speaker 2: as well. And again won't always work if you have
• 1:15:36
  Speaker 2: a portfolio. Would highly recommend building and sets. Talk about
• 1:15:39
  Speaker 2: that a ton over at DFS Mastermind, But I definitely
• 1:15:42
  Speaker 2: think I like that play just off the top of
• 1:15:44
  Speaker 2: my mind for this week. And it also allows me
• 1:15:46
  Speaker 2: to not have to be like, Okay, I'm in on Scotty,
• 1:15:48
  Speaker 2: out on Scotty, or in on exactly Seawoo and Henley,
• 1:15:52
  Speaker 2: or say, you know, go down good on that route.
• 1:15:53
  Speaker 2: So I'm gonna stick to six, so I'll find the
• 1:15:55
  Speaker 2: one that makes it work.
• 1:15:56
  Speaker 3: Cool. My leverage lane is going to be the upper
• 1:15:58
  Speaker 3: seven K range. We talked about it earlier. Like I
• 1:16:02
  Speaker 3: always like thinking about why ownership is looking the way
• 1:16:06
  Speaker 3: it is, and it's such a straightforward reason this week
• 1:16:09
  Speaker 3: why the upper seven k range is going to be
• 1:16:11
  Speaker 3: under owned, because if you start with something like Oberg
• 1:16:14
  Speaker 3: ciwu Henley, you're left with seven thousand per player. If
• 1:16:17
  Speaker 3: you start with Scotty and any of the really popular
• 1:16:20
  Speaker 3: eight k guys, whether it's JT. Smalier, spawn, you're left
• 1:16:24
  Speaker 3: with like seven k per player. So it's just so
• 1:16:27
  Speaker 3: clear and obvious that people aren't going to the seven
• 1:16:29
  Speaker 3: k range that they're going to be stuck or to
• 1:16:32
  Speaker 3: that upper seven k range. They're going to be stuck
• 1:16:33
  Speaker 3: in the low seven's upper sixes, so they don't have
• 1:16:36
  Speaker 3: to dip into the six k range more than they
• 1:16:38
  Speaker 3: want to. There's just such a wonderful cap on the
• 1:16:43
  Speaker 3: ownership for these upper seven k guys, and they have
• 1:16:46
  Speaker 3: like really really intriguing ceilings, right Sepstraka, Nikolai Huygard, Justin Rose,
• 1:16:52
  Speaker 3: Kryp Kidiama. These are all guys who, yeah, they can
• 1:16:56
  Speaker 3: kind of go off the rails for you, but when
• 1:16:58
  Speaker 3: they play well, they have the upside to be in
• 1:17:01
  Speaker 3: contention here this week and get you just a ton
• 1:17:04
  Speaker 3: of draftings points at low ownership. A lot of these
• 1:17:06
  Speaker 3: guys are also good scores, right, so even if they're
• 1:17:09
  Speaker 3: twentyeth on the leaderboard, they might be twelfth in DraftKings
• 1:17:11
  Speaker 3: points something like that. So I love this range. I'm
• 1:17:14
  Speaker 3: just gonna kind of hammer it, and I think I'll guarantee,
• 1:17:17
  Speaker 3: I can almost guarantee that I'll have at least two
• 1:17:19
  Speaker 3: in each of my lineups.
• 1:17:21
  Speaker 2: Yeah, what's really interesting just look at the board, like
• 1:17:23
  Speaker 2: you mentioned Justin Rose, usually you're I mean, we talked
• 1:17:25
  Speaker 2: about this guy since what was the underprice the sixty
• 1:17:27
  Speaker 2: eight hundred, the Hoguard Nikolai Hogard at seventy seven hundred,
• 1:17:31
  Speaker 2: should he still be eight k plus or or I
• 1:17:34
  Speaker 2: mean we're pretty close now at seventy seven or is
• 1:17:36
  Speaker 2: he going to be underpriced there? Do you like him?
• 1:17:39
  Speaker 2: Or Sap or like who sort of stands out in
• 1:17:41
  Speaker 2: that range from the uppers you mentioned Sep and Justin Rose,
• 1:17:44
  Speaker 2: but Hoguard's there as well. Any interest?
• 1:17:47
  Speaker 3: Yeah, the first thing I'll say is I haven't I
• 1:17:50
  Speaker 3: haven't checked the tea time see these guys yet. So
• 1:17:52
  Speaker 3: I think what I will end up doing is I'm
• 1:17:54
  Speaker 3: gonna try and you know, correlate as much as I can.
• 1:17:58
  Speaker 3: I will say, like a lot of the guys that
• 1:18:00
  Speaker 3: I like that I really liked coming into the week,
• 1:18:03
  Speaker 3: that I already kind of identified as under owned, I
• 1:18:06
  Speaker 3: think their ownership is going to go down because they're
• 1:18:07
  Speaker 3: in the wrong wave. So I might not be in
• 1:18:11
  Speaker 3: the I might not be stacking the wave the way
• 1:18:15
  Speaker 3: most people will be, and I might just be hoping
• 1:18:17
  Speaker 3: for a lucky break that it goes a different way,
• 1:18:19
  Speaker 3: or just hoping that it's you know, that there's no
• 1:18:21
  Speaker 3: real advantage and that maybe it's a point three stroke
• 1:18:23
  Speaker 3: advantage and it's very easy for my guys to overcome
• 1:18:25
  Speaker 3: or something like that. Right, But so I don't want
• 1:18:29
  Speaker 3: to just kind of, you know, say, oh, my favorite
• 1:18:31
  Speaker 3: is justin Rose, because I am going to look at
• 1:18:34
  Speaker 3: what wave are they in, and I'm gonna look at
• 1:18:36
  Speaker 3: the kind of skill sets that they are. Right, So,
• 1:18:38
  Speaker 3: if I start with a really contrarian Rory cam Young
• 1:18:42
  Speaker 3: start or something like that, Nikolai hoygard Is is almost
• 1:18:45
  Speaker 3: definitely my next click because he's such a similar skill
• 1:18:48
  Speaker 3: set to those guys. If I start with, you know,
• 1:18:51
  Speaker 3: a Tommy Fleetwood or something like that and really balanced build, well,
• 1:18:55
  Speaker 3: now I might I might be more inclined to go
• 1:18:57
  Speaker 3: step straca and just look for that accurate, great player
• 1:19:00
  Speaker 3: prototype guy. And so for me, like all of these
• 1:19:03
  Speaker 3: guys are great options, and so they're all gonna fit
• 1:19:06
  Speaker 3: different lineups better than the others.
• 1:19:09
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it's a good point too, Like I mean, not
• 1:19:10
  Speaker 2: just committing to the wave if you ended up going
• 1:19:12
  Speaker 2: that route and just hoping for a break that falls
• 1:19:14
  Speaker 2: your way or like, not that big of an advantage
• 1:19:16
  Speaker 2: because you'll just naturally be different and get all the
• 1:19:18
  Speaker 2: plays that you like together in a lineup construction that's
• 1:19:21
  Speaker 2: under owned across the board because of that, But also
• 1:19:24
  Speaker 2: you can correlate the stack of the skill set sorry
• 1:19:28
  Speaker 2: to the stack as well of like Okay, if I'm
• 1:19:30
  Speaker 2: going with you know, Rory and Cam Young or whatever
• 1:19:34
  Speaker 2: it might be, it's like, well, now I'm clearly going
• 1:19:35
  Speaker 2: in on more of like these bombers that have other
• 1:19:38
  Speaker 2: pieces to their game. Who else fits that? Versus if
• 1:19:41
  Speaker 2: you go more like accuracy and around the green approach
• 1:19:44
  Speaker 2: and long iron and things like that, you could look
• 1:19:46
  Speaker 2: at the build from that perspective as well. So I
• 1:19:47
  Speaker 2: always I always trying to break it down, my friend.
• 1:19:49
  Speaker 2: Always good to go through that, let the people know
• 1:19:51
  Speaker 2: everything you got going on with your discord. Of course,
• 1:19:54
  Speaker 2: if you guys aren't in there, you're completely missing out.
• 1:19:56
  Speaker 2: Like we talked about a ton, not only on the
• 1:19:58
  Speaker 2: bets and the pick them side, but you the application
• 1:20:00
  Speaker 2: of just putting stuff together the MLB side. If you
• 1:20:02
  Speaker 2: play mlbdfs of you know all these different factors, you know,
• 1:20:07
  Speaker 2: it's the best way that you could put it together
• 1:20:08
  Speaker 2: and be able to give yourself a chance to put
• 1:20:10
  Speaker 2: yourself in the position to actually figure out some of
• 1:20:12
  Speaker 2: this stuff that's happening behind the scenes. But you can
• 1:20:14
  Speaker 2: speak more to what Alex for sure.
• 1:20:16
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I appreciate that very much, my friend. And yeah,
• 1:20:18
  Speaker 3: so what Tim was alluding to there is I've been
• 1:20:21
  Speaker 3: doing a lot of kind of really deep dive roster
• 1:20:23
  Speaker 3: construction analysis on the MLB side, and I can say
• 1:20:26
  Speaker 3: that next on the list, the next big kind of
• 1:20:28
  Speaker 3: data to drop in the discord is going to be
• 1:20:30
  Speaker 3: on PG Showdown and so that it'll that will come
• 1:20:33
  Speaker 3: before Friday's showdown round for sure and definitely something to
• 1:20:37
  Speaker 3: check out. So go through my Twitter at Alex Blicka
• 1:20:40
  Speaker 3: one and also fine, make sure you use promo code
• 1:20:45
  Speaker 3: leverage for ten percent off and that ten percent off.
• 1:20:47
  Speaker 3: Is is a forever discount, so every single time renews
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• 1:20:52
  Speaker 3: so so yeah, go through my my Twitter at alex
• 1:20:54
  Speaker 3: Blicka one. You'll find the discord there. Join and get
• 1:20:57
  Speaker 3: in on this really cool data.
• 1:20:58
  Speaker 2: Yeah, definitely check it out, guys. If you want to
• 1:21:00
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• 1:21:14
  Speaker 2: If you're not in on it already. Immediately you will
• 1:21:16
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• 1:21:25
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• 1:21:27
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• 1:21:46
  Speaker 2: for Alex and for myself to tag and Tambo, good
• 1:21:48
  Speaker 2: luck in your contest this week and led Ship it
• 1:22:07
  Speaker 1: Names