Latest / Trumponomics / 37: The International Plot to Kill Big Bills

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37: The International Plot to Kill Big Bills · Trumponomics

0:00
Speaker 1: There are thirty three hundred dollar bills for every man, woman,
0:04
Speaker 1: and child in the US, So if you've only got one,
0:09
Speaker 1: somebody else has your other two. Hi, and welcome back
0:21
Speaker 1: to Bloomberg Benchmark, a show about the inner workings of
0:24
Speaker 1: the global economy. I'm Tory Stillwell and economics reporter for
0:27
Speaker 1: Bloomberg News in d C. And I'm joined by my
0:30
Speaker 1: co host Akido, our Benchmark editor in San Francisco. Hey Hockey,
0:35
Speaker 1: Hey Tony, how's it going pretty good? I am recording
0:38
Speaker 1: today out of our newsroom, so you may hear a
0:41
Speaker 1: little bit of background noise. Oh well, I'm recording from
0:45
Speaker 1: San Francisco for the first time in I think four months.
0:49
Speaker 1: Oh wow. Yeah, welcome back, and it's good to be back. Yeah,
0:54
Speaker 1: thank you so much. Well, today's show is all about
0:58
Speaker 1: Dolla dolla bills, y'all, Dolla dollar bills. Yeahs. But the
1:04
Speaker 1: European Central Bank last week said it would stop producing
1:08
Speaker 1: their five hundred euro bank notes after citing concerns that
1:13
Speaker 1: it could facilitate illicit activities some criminals. Actually, they refer
1:19
Speaker 1: to this note as the bin laden, referring to the
1:23
Speaker 1: I was just I wrote that in my notes isn't
1:30
Speaker 1: that so interesting? I mean, I feel like that says
1:32
Speaker 1: a lot about this. That's the former leader of al Qaeda.
1:37
Speaker 1: For all of our listeners out there, I don't I
1:39
Speaker 1: don't know how you wouldn't know who' been latin this,
1:41
Speaker 1: But in case you don't, yeah, good context. Well anyway,
1:46
Speaker 1: that decision has been fairly controversial. And you know, Germany,
1:50
Speaker 1: since apparently before even the creation of the Eurozone, has
1:54
Speaker 1: been a big proponent of high denomination notes, and the
1:58
Speaker 1: head of the country's central bank just recently said that
2:01
Speaker 1: it's still debatable whether the removal of the five year
2:05
Speaker 1: old note is going to curtail any crime, and that
2:09
Speaker 1: it actually might end up undermining people's trust in cash.
2:13
Speaker 1: And apparently officials in Austria and also Switzerland are against
2:17
Speaker 1: eliminating their own forms of high denomination money too. So
2:21
Speaker 1: to discuss all of this and more, we have enlisted
2:24
Speaker 1: Peter Sands, whose paper called making It Harder for the
2:28
Speaker 1: Bad Guys has helped fuel this debate. He's a senior
2:31
Speaker 1: fellow at the Harvard Kennedy School, and before that, he
2:34
Speaker 1: was CEO of Standard Chartered Bank for almost ten years.
2:38
Speaker 1: Welcome Peter high So Peter, as the head of a bank,
2:43
Speaker 1: I'm sure that you've seen your fair share of high
2:46
Speaker 1: denomination notes, right. Actually, cash doesn't play much role in
2:53
Speaker 1: modern banking. I mean, obviously you take it out of
2:56
Speaker 1: a t m S and people deposited in branches, but
2:59
Speaker 1: most of what a bank does doesn't actually involve cash.
3:03
Speaker 1: So in a lot of ways, this was kind of
3:04
Speaker 1: a foreign world to you. Well, certainly, the rather murky
3:09
Speaker 1: world of people trying to move money across borders in
3:14
Speaker 1: sort of piles of high denomination notes was not something
3:17
Speaker 1: I've come across. You're not an international criminals, Peter. Maybe
3:24
Speaker 1: you could walk us through a summary of your research
3:26
Speaker 1: for our listeners and then we can dig through some
3:29
Speaker 1: of the details afterwards. The my interest in high denomination
3:34
Speaker 1: notes is because they aren't used very much in everyday life.
3:39
Speaker 1: We don't normally take a five hundred dollar five euro
3:44
Speaker 1: note out of our pocket and try and buy a
3:47
Speaker 1: coffee with it. But if you look at what criminals
3:51
Speaker 1: are doing, drug traffickers, people financing terrorism, people giving all
3:55
Speaker 1: receiving bribes, actually they're using these notes very intensely. So
4:00
Speaker 1: the point of my research was to look at whether
4:04
Speaker 1: or not we should still be issuing these or whether
4:06
Speaker 1: we should get rid of them, not because it would
4:09
Speaker 1: suddenly stop criminal activity, but it would simply, as the
4:13
Speaker 1: title of the paper put it, make the lives of
4:16
Speaker 1: the bad guys a bit harder because the great advantage
4:19
Speaker 1: of high denomination notes is that they are the most
4:25
Speaker 1: anonymous and easy way to transport and store money secretly
4:32
Speaker 1: if you if you want to do something illegal, right,
4:35
Speaker 1: and we're talking about people who are trying to evade taxes, finance, terror, corruption,
4:41
Speaker 1: financial crimes, those types of bad guys, I guess anybody
4:44
Speaker 1: who wants to do something that they don't want anybody
4:47
Speaker 1: in authority to know that they are doing. And the
4:51
Speaker 1: great thing about cash is that cash is anonymous and
4:55
Speaker 1: it leaves no record, and there's no other payment mechanism
4:59
Speaker 1: that does that it. So for I guess some context
5:02
Speaker 1: for our listeners who haven't tried to move a large
5:06
Speaker 1: amount of money around anonymously. A million dollars worth of
5:10
Speaker 1: twenty dollar bills apparently is about a hundred and ten pounds,
5:14
Speaker 1: which would fit in about four briefcases. So think of
5:18
Speaker 1: that as maybe carrying tories entire body weight around. It's
5:23
Speaker 1: quite a lot would be able to do that one person.
5:28
Speaker 1: I would find it pretty hard, and you certainly couldn't
5:30
Speaker 1: do it very discreetly. Right, Yeah, But if you tried
5:34
Speaker 1: to do that with one hundred dollar bills, that would
5:38
Speaker 1: only be twenty two pounds and it would fit in
5:40
Speaker 1: a single briefcase. So it's a totally new ball game. Right.
5:44
Speaker 1: And if we look at the five hundred euro notes
5:46
Speaker 1: that we're just announced that they're going to be phased out,
5:50
Speaker 1: a million dollars a million US dollars that is weighs
5:53
Speaker 1: about five pounds, and that would fit in a you know,
5:57
Speaker 1: a very small bag. So it's a it's like you said,
5:59
Speaker 1: it's a total game changer. Yeah, and surprise, surprise, if
6:02
Speaker 1: you look at what cocaine smugglers are using, uh, they're
6:08
Speaker 1: preferred is the five year note, and then after that
6:11
Speaker 1: they quite like the hundred dollar bill. But give them
6:14
Speaker 1: a choice, they'll use the five euro because they can
6:17
Speaker 1: get more money in a smaller package, are less easy
6:21
Speaker 1: to sort of find package, they can transport it more easily. Peter,
6:26
Speaker 1: I think a lot of our listeners are hearing this,
6:29
Speaker 1: and you know, they're thinking, like, gosh, this sounds like
6:31
Speaker 1: a relatively easy and simple thing for governments to do. So,
6:35
Speaker 1: you know, can we get any kind of sense on
6:38
Speaker 1: how much of an impact maybe getting rid of the
6:41
Speaker 1: one dollar bill would have on cutting crime, on on
6:45
Speaker 1: how much more taxes the I R s might be
6:47
Speaker 1: able to collect. Well, it's very difficult to get a
6:50
Speaker 1: precise calculation, and a lot depends on how easy it
6:55
Speaker 1: is for the criminals to find substitutes. So if, for example,
7:01
Speaker 1: we get rid of the five hundred euro note as
7:04
Speaker 1: as it is proposed, just to stop issuing it, but
7:07
Speaker 1: the European Central Bank just ramps up production of the
7:11
Speaker 1: two hundred euro note, then the impact will be less
7:16
Speaker 1: than if it forces people, to, say, use the hundred
7:19
Speaker 1: euro note. So it depends somewhat on sort of how
7:23
Speaker 1: the policy is implemented. But I think we can be
7:27
Speaker 1: pretty confident that there will be a positive impact, and
7:30
Speaker 1: it will be most positive whether stakes are high. So
7:34
Speaker 1: it won't make much difference if somebody is just trying
7:37
Speaker 1: not to pay tax on a very small amount of money,
7:40
Speaker 1: because they're probably not using higher denomination notes anyway. But
7:43
Speaker 1: if they're trying to not pay tax by taking say
7:47
Speaker 1: cash income um and not reporting it on tens or
7:50
Speaker 1: hundreds of thousands of dollars, then that is more likely
7:54
Speaker 1: to be affected by not having high denomination notes. And likewise,
7:59
Speaker 1: you know, drug trafficking is probably the crime that involves
8:03
Speaker 1: most cross border transportation of very large sums of money.
8:08
Speaker 1: It's been estimated that about thirty billion dollars a year
8:12
Speaker 1: crosses the US Mexico border in cash. You just have
8:16
Speaker 1: to think about it very simply. If you didn't have
8:18
Speaker 1: a hundred dollar bill and you had to carry either
8:21
Speaker 1: fifties or twenties, you'd have two to five times as
8:25
Speaker 1: many packages things hidden in the floors of cars, you know,
8:31
Speaker 1: secret containers going across. So the cost of doing that
8:34
Speaker 1: for the criminals and their risk of detection would be higher. Um.
8:40
Speaker 1: And what's funny is people are quite reluctant when you
8:43
Speaker 1: first suggest getting rid of these things. People are a
8:46
Speaker 1: bit sort of anxious and you know, a bit uncertain
8:51
Speaker 1: about it. But nobody's proposing to bring any of the
8:54
Speaker 1: things that have been eliminated back again. Right once they're gone,
8:57
Speaker 1: nobody wants them back again. You know that there's some
9:00
Speaker 1: of those notes five hundred thousand dollars, five thousand dollars,
9:02
Speaker 1: ten thousand dollar bills. They're actually all still legal tender
9:06
Speaker 1: and there some of them are still in circulation. Just
9:08
Speaker 1: if the FED finds them, they like gobble them up
9:10
Speaker 1: and destroy them and take them out. Oh my god. Yeah, absolutely,
9:14
Speaker 1: they haven't been brought back. When when was the last
9:19
Speaker 1: time you used one hundred dollar bill? Oh gosh, um,
9:23
Speaker 1: you know, I think I maybe took out one hundreds
9:26
Speaker 1: when I went to Iceland a year ago. You were
9:29
Speaker 1: traveling to Yeah, I was traveling. That's the only time
9:32
Speaker 1: I ever take out money that big. Well, there are
9:37
Speaker 1: thirty three ish around thirty three at least over thirty
9:42
Speaker 1: hundred dollar bills for every man, woman, and child in
9:47
Speaker 1: the US. So if you've only got one, somebody else
9:51
Speaker 1: has your probably outside of the US too, right, A
9:57
Speaker 1: lot of these bills aren't inside the country, that's right.
10:00
Speaker 1: We don't really know how much, but it's probably over
10:04
Speaker 1: them ah um, outside the US. Indeed, it's been suggested that, um,
10:11
Speaker 1: the city in the world which probably has most of them,
10:14
Speaker 1: um is probably Moscow, but again we don't know that
10:18
Speaker 1: for certain. Well, we're going to take a short break,
10:21
Speaker 1: but when we come back, we will talk about how
10:24
Speaker 1: emerging markets are dealing with high denomination bills, as well
10:28
Speaker 1: as some of the CONTs behind taking them out after
10:32
Speaker 1: this break. So, Peter, one of the interesting points that
10:49
Speaker 1: you make in your paper is that a lot of
10:51
Speaker 1: these criminal transactions don't happen inside the US, inside US territory,
10:57
Speaker 1: but they're occurring in US dollars. So when government officials
11:02
Speaker 1: in India or say Pakistan want to fight drug track,
11:07
Speaker 1: drug trafficking or corruption, uh, the existence of one hundred
11:11
Speaker 1: dollar bills makes it that much harder for them to
11:14
Speaker 1: actually fight that. UM. So I'm wondering, do you know
11:17
Speaker 1: if any emerging market officials have urged the US have
11:21
Speaker 1: urged US government officials to get rid of one hundred
11:24
Speaker 1: dollar bills? And has something like this ever been on
11:28
Speaker 1: the G twenty agenda. I don't know whether um uh
11:33
Speaker 1: there have been specific conversations from emerging market government officials
11:38
Speaker 1: um uh to the US. I know that UM that
11:45
Speaker 1: emerging market sort of crime fighting officials UM are very
11:51
Speaker 1: aware of the role let's say the hundred dollar bill plays,
11:56
Speaker 1: whether it's in drug trafficking or corruption um or and
12:01
Speaker 1: so on. And I would be surprised if those conversations
12:04
Speaker 1: UM haven't been happening. Um. And I'm aware that this
12:09
Speaker 1: discussion around the role of high denomination notes has been
12:13
Speaker 1: discussed in various forums in the context of terrorist finance
12:18
Speaker 1: and also in the context of corruption. Mm hmm. So
12:23
Speaker 1: these operators of you know, global common currencies like the
12:27
Speaker 1: US and Europe, they kind of have this global responsibility
12:30
Speaker 1: to Yeah, I would argue we do have a global responsibility.
12:36
Speaker 1: Most emerging markets don't actually issue high denomination notes themselves, um,
12:42
Speaker 1: But the high denomination notes are in use in their
12:45
Speaker 1: own economies, um, in ways that are often quite sort
12:49
Speaker 1: of corrosive to their societies. Right, So this seems kind
12:53
Speaker 1: of like a slam dunk to me. Why why are
12:56
Speaker 1: some people opposed to this? Well, I'm sympathetic to the
13:00
Speaker 1: argument that cash still plays a really important role. It's
13:05
Speaker 1: incredibly convenient. It works when you don't have a electricity
13:09
Speaker 1: or telephone signal. It works when you want to give
13:12
Speaker 1: you a child pocket money. You don't need any infrastructure,
13:16
Speaker 1: and it is private and there's real value in that. However,
13:21
Speaker 1: that's really useful in the many small transactions we're doing
13:26
Speaker 1: sort of every day, and the reality is we're not
13:29
Speaker 1: using high denomination notes for it. And if you need
13:33
Speaker 1: high denomination notes in that kind of circumstance, the evidence
13:37
Speaker 1: would suggest that you're normally doing something which society probably
13:43
Speaker 1: doesn't want you to do it privately, right, you're probably
13:45
Speaker 1: being sketchy a little bit. Yeah, I mean, you know,
13:49
Speaker 1: if you need five eur notes to make a payment, UM,
13:53
Speaker 1: you're probably buying something or selling something in thousands or
13:58
Speaker 1: tens of thousands or Europe. The the likelihood is that
14:04
Speaker 1: there should be some tanks attached to that, UM, and
14:08
Speaker 1: you know, it may be a bit of a dubious transaction.
14:12
Speaker 1: And I know as a kid, I mean I always
14:14
Speaker 1: personally liked it when I got my money in smaller bills,
14:18
Speaker 1: like for gifts, because it always made me feel like
14:20
Speaker 1: I was getting more, even though obviously I wasn't you know, Peter,
14:26
Speaker 1: your your paper came out in February and Larry Summers,
14:30
Speaker 1: who UM is the former Treasury secretary. He wrote a
14:34
Speaker 1: very influential op ed about it back in your argument,
14:38
Speaker 1: and the ECB just last week came to this decision
14:42
Speaker 1: to stop issuing their five euro notes. Do you feel
14:46
Speaker 1: like your argument is gaining traction in the US. Well,
14:52
Speaker 1: it's certainly gaining traction in Europe. As you have noticed, UM,
14:56
Speaker 1: I think UM the US has been watching to see
15:01
Speaker 1: what Europe would do, and there's so much of it
15:05
Speaker 1: out there. The three hundred billion euro of five hundred
15:09
Speaker 1: euro notes, there's a trillion dollars of there's over a
15:12
Speaker 1: trillion dollars of hundred dollar bills. But but given that
15:15
Speaker 1: the five hundred euro note was the the obvious starting point,
15:20
Speaker 1: that's where the attention has been focused. But I think
15:24
Speaker 1: it is important in the US to be very thoughtful
15:27
Speaker 1: about what the role is of the hundred dollar bill. Um.
15:31
Speaker 1: Do you really need thirty three hundred dollar bills for
15:34
Speaker 1: um everybody in America? It does seem it does seem
15:40
Speaker 1: an awful lot. The Swiss particularly have been a little
15:44
Speaker 1: opposed to this idea. You know, some of the officials
15:47
Speaker 1: there have argued that the right to pay anonymously is
15:51
Speaker 1: a basic liberty and that people are using, um, the
15:55
Speaker 1: one thousand franc notes. They're arguing that there you're use
15:59
Speaker 1: not only the means of payment but also as a
16:02
Speaker 1: store of value. Can you explain to us exactly what
16:05
Speaker 1: they mean by that and whether or not that's a
16:08
Speaker 1: convincing argument Frankly, I think we should get rid of
16:10
Speaker 1: the one. The Swiss should get rid of the one
16:12
Speaker 1: thousand Swiss franc um no, because I suspect it's largely
16:16
Speaker 1: used UMU to store value, but to store value which
16:21
Speaker 1: has been illegally obtained in one way or rather through
16:25
Speaker 1: tax evasion or some form of crime or corruption. And yes,
16:29
Speaker 1: there maybe some people who choose to hold their savings
16:34
Speaker 1: sort of under their bed, but A you've got to
16:37
Speaker 1: be pretty wealthy to really need to do it in
16:40
Speaker 1: thousand Swiss franc notes right that for it to make
16:45
Speaker 1: a difference between doing it in the hundreds and thousands,
16:48
Speaker 1: you've got to be storing a serious amount and be
16:51
Speaker 1: you've got to ask the question of well, why is
16:54
Speaker 1: it that somebody is so keen for it not to
16:57
Speaker 1: be recorded in the banking system. And I'm wondering, Peter,
17:02
Speaker 1: when this idea came to you in the first place.
17:04
Speaker 1: Was it when you were running Standard Chartered or was
17:07
Speaker 1: it a little bit later? Well, it could to me
17:10
Speaker 1: when I was still out Standard charldhood, but um I
17:12
Speaker 1: didn't have the time to do very much UM about
17:16
Speaker 1: it as an idea. UM And so when I came
17:20
Speaker 1: to Harvard. I thought, well, I should focus on this
17:23
Speaker 1: and see whether it is such a good idea as
17:26
Speaker 1: it sort of seemed to me to get rid of
17:28
Speaker 1: these notes, um. And that's why I worked with a
17:32
Speaker 1: bunch of a group of graduate students here to do
17:36
Speaker 1: research into the different high denomination notes in the world
17:40
Speaker 1: and also the role that these different notes played in
17:43
Speaker 1: different forms of illicit activity. And after all that research,
17:48
Speaker 1: it turned out to be just as good as an
17:49
Speaker 1: idea as you thought it would be. Well, if anything,
17:52
Speaker 1: it turned out to be a better idea, because the
17:55
Speaker 1: more we looked at it, the more we came to
17:57
Speaker 1: the view that really people went you seeing these notes
18:00
Speaker 1: very much, they don't play a significant role in normal,
18:04
Speaker 1: everyday economic activity um. And therefore the downside of getting
18:09
Speaker 1: rid of them seems incredibly limited. And yet, on the
18:12
Speaker 1: other hand, almost every seizure of illegal cash, be it
18:16
Speaker 1: for corruption or drugs or whatever, involves these higher denomination notes.
18:20
Speaker 1: So when you've got something which is being used a
18:23
Speaker 1: lot for bad things and not being used a lot
18:26
Speaker 1: for good things, and it is something that is produced
18:29
Speaker 1: by the state, it's not a sort of natural thing.
18:32
Speaker 1: It's a it's something that the government produces. You've got
18:35
Speaker 1: to ask, why are we producing something that makes life
18:40
Speaker 1: easier for criminals and so and and it's a very
18:45
Speaker 1: it is actually a very easy policy to implement, and
18:49
Speaker 1: in the world of fighting crime, most things are quite
18:51
Speaker 1: difficult to do, whereas turning off a printer is a
18:55
Speaker 1: pretty simple policy. Is there a chance that I mean
18:57
Speaker 1: this would save us money or cost us for mean
19:00
Speaker 1: terms of eliminating these bills, Well, you you you lose
19:05
Speaker 1: a bit of money, um if you're the central bank,
19:08
Speaker 1: from what's called senor ridge, which is the interest that
19:12
Speaker 1: central banks earn on money they've issued. Essentially, when you
19:17
Speaker 1: hold a note in your pocket, it's an interest free
19:20
Speaker 1: loan to the government. But that's a pretty small amount
19:23
Speaker 1: when interest rates are as low um as they are
19:26
Speaker 1: at the moment, and actually in the many places now
19:28
Speaker 1: that interest rates are becoming negative, it's a it's a
19:31
Speaker 1: negative loss. So it's that that really isn't a problem.
19:35
Speaker 1: But I think that is more than offset by the
19:39
Speaker 1: increased tax take. You don't have to assume very much
19:44
Speaker 1: in terms of um greater tax payments from people who've
19:49
Speaker 1: been using cash to avoid paying tax to more than
19:53
Speaker 1: offset any potential loss from um Senior Ridge. And then
19:58
Speaker 1: of course any reduction UM in the sort of massive
20:02
Speaker 1: flows of money involved in crime has to be a
20:05
Speaker 1: significant social benefit. Great well, Peter, this has been an
20:10
Speaker 1: awesome conversation. Thanks so much. And if anyone has some
20:15
Speaker 1: five hundred euro notes that they would like to not
20:19
Speaker 1: have on their hands anymore, just contact us. I'm at
20:23
Speaker 1: two zero two four s too willing to fly send
20:27
Speaker 1: it over in a briefcase. Thanks Peter, Thanks very much.
20:33
Speaker 1: Thank you so, Tori. I thought that was a really
20:39
Speaker 1: fascinating conversation, and you know Peter's paper over fifty pages,
20:44
Speaker 1: was fascinating to what did you learn? Well, I learned
20:49
Speaker 1: that there is a lot to write about on this topic.
20:52
Speaker 1: As you said, his research is extremely thorough, Um. But
20:56
Speaker 1: I just think here the most fascinating thing is just
21:00
Speaker 1: the sheer size and bulky nous that cash has and
21:07
Speaker 1: what sort of equality that is to it, Especially when
21:09
Speaker 1: you think of cutting out those big denomination bills. It
21:13
Speaker 1: suddenly becomes a lot harder to do things that you
21:16
Speaker 1: probably shouldn't be doing. But I think the the other
21:21
Speaker 1: side of the story here has a really big point,
21:23
Speaker 1: which is how much, say, do we want the government
21:26
Speaker 1: to have over how we pay for things, how we
21:28
Speaker 1: conduct private business. Mm hmm, yeah, I mean that doesn't
21:33
Speaker 1: really concern me a whole lot. I would love to
21:36
Speaker 1: live in a cash list society. Really, what if I
21:39
Speaker 1: mean they tapped into all your stuff and saw that,
21:41
Speaker 1: like you've then moaned me for like a drunken braunch
21:44
Speaker 1: one day, and then that got leaked to vand and
21:47
Speaker 1: then Dan was like, wait what, I don't know. I mean,
21:52
Speaker 1: I don't think the government cares very much whether I
21:55
Speaker 1: had a drunken brunch or not, but maybe point taken.
21:59
Speaker 1: And and you know, so when I recently spent three
22:02
Speaker 1: months in Japan, and Japan's like a super cash heavy society,
22:06
Speaker 1: and I was always running to the A t M
22:08
Speaker 1: because so many places don't take credit cards, um, and
22:11
Speaker 1: I constantly had to be walking around with like, you know,
22:14
Speaker 1: fifties sixty thousand yen in my wallet, which you know
22:17
Speaker 1: in Tokyo. Tokyo is a pretty safe society, so it's fine,
22:20
Speaker 1: but it made me feel uncomfortable. Yeah, I can totally
22:22
Speaker 1: understand that. Well, lots of good arguments on both sides,
22:26
Speaker 1: and will be really interesting to see if this gains
22:29
Speaker 1: traction here in the US now that Europe is doing
22:31
Speaker 1: something about it. Yeah, definitely Well. Benchmark will be back
22:35
Speaker 1: next week and until then, you can find us on
22:38
Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Terminal and Bloomberg dot com, as well as
22:41
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22:45
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22:47
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Speaker 1: See you next week. M