Latest / The Central Indiana Sports Report / The Purdue Report: Purdue-Illinois Preview with Jake Dunn (2.47.1)
Transcript
- 0:00[SPEAKER_00]: Welcome back to the Central Indiana Sports Report, boiler maker fans for today's Purdue Report slash, Purdue Illinois Preview with the fever playing this week, it late into the night and baseball playoffs going on.
- 0:19[SPEAKER_00]: We decided to combine the two into one.
- 0:21[SPEAKER_00]: We did the same with the cults.
- 0:23[SPEAKER_00]: And I, you had the, yeah,
- 0:25[SPEAKER_00]: as a by week.
- 0:26[SPEAKER_00]: So it was easier to do with them.
- 0:28[SPEAKER_00]: So we compacted it just a little bit next week.
- 0:31[SPEAKER_00]: We will be back on schedule.
- 0:32[SPEAKER_00]: We think, although it's possible that we will combine the two again any week.
- 0:37[SPEAKER_00]: But the plan is to get back to the regular schedule next week.
- 0:42[SPEAKER_00]: Welcome back to my co-host Jake Dunn who is here after a week off.
- 0:48[SPEAKER_00]: Welcome back, Jake.
- 0:50[SPEAKER_01]: was a good week off hopefully the team was able to get rested and yeah it's good to get out the week off.
- 1:00[SPEAKER_00]: Coming off a 56 to 30 loss to Notre Dame and you know looking back on that after what they did to Arkansas maybe not that big of a deal.
- 1:12[SPEAKER_00]: A lot of offensive points in the
- 1:16[SPEAKER_00]: The other one, Jacob, and look back at is last year against Illinois, and that's an interesting result.
- 1:22[SPEAKER_00]: Kind of interesting week heading into an Illinois game, then maybe you can see the boy that make her stealing.
- 1:30[SPEAKER_01]: Certainly now the realm of possibilities for this game, so it'd be a cool, full circle moment for Ryan Brown, if you were able to knock off.
- 1:43[SPEAKER_01]: Illinois, so I Illinois is a good team, talk to me, I'm pretty solid, talk to me, five team, enough they're a playoff team, but they are decent.
- 1:53[SPEAKER_01]: So they're one of the better teams for you to play this year, but this is for the Canon trophy.
- 2:00[SPEAKER_01]: That's a pretty least at series all time, 48, 46, and there are six ties.
- 2:07[SPEAKER_01]: So produce one, 15 of the last 20 matchups.
- 2:12[SPEAKER_01]: which that's pretty crazy to have that much of a of a advantage over the past you know 20 matchups so yeah It's anything's possible in this in a series including last year over time when by Illinois that kept their
- 2:32[SPEAKER_00]: their great season alive.
- 2:33[SPEAKER_00]: Otherwise, that would have been a big black eye on the alineye.
- 2:36[SPEAKER_00]: This is one of those programs that when they come up on the schedule, Purdue always kind of expects to win.
- 2:43[SPEAKER_00]: It's a really good Illinois team.
- 2:45[SPEAKER_00]: As you said, I don't think there's any doubt they're talking to 25 team.
- 2:48[SPEAKER_00]: I think if not, there are somewhere around there.
- 2:51[SPEAKER_00]: But that being said, 63 to 10 to I U, and then last week, not very impressive against USC.
- 3:00[SPEAKER_01]: They've got a really good run game.
- 3:03[SPEAKER_01]: They're quarterback, Luke Altmire also is really good.
- 3:06[SPEAKER_01]: So I think they have the potential to give for a lot of problems.
- 3:11[SPEAKER_01]: Self rate.
- 3:13[SPEAKER_01]: We saw against U.S.
- 3:15[SPEAKER_01]: sea and Notre Dame, some of the real pain points for this Purdue defense.
- 3:20[SPEAKER_01]: So hopefully, over the by week, they're able to kind of work on some things, get healthier, get rested.
- 3:27[SPEAKER_01]: It's really come out.
- 3:29[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, you really got to come out, so I'm going to end this game, got to come out, start fast and be aggressive.
- 3:35[SPEAKER_01]: I think we'll see that from this very autumn coach, pretty well and make our scene.
- 3:41[SPEAKER_00]: I have a feeling you mentioned all of my, he's top 10 quarter back in the country at worst, right?
- 3:49[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, possibly even better than that.
- 3:52[SPEAKER_00]: Um, that's really where they kind of go.
- 3:53[SPEAKER_00]: You mentioned that they have a pretty good running game.
- 3:56[SPEAKER_00]: No, buddy who really stands out alt Myers a good runner himself and that's really where Purdue's been beaten when they've been beaten is really gashed in the run game.
- 4:07[SPEAKER_00]: So that's going to be I think the key stopping Illinois's run.
- 4:12[SPEAKER_00]: So they can't set up the past to just really beat this team.
- 4:16[SPEAKER_00]: Like we said.
- 4:18[SPEAKER_01]: And you mentioned on Larry, he's not necessarily a runner by trade, but he I last year he did kind of hurt for doing on the ground with 60 rushing yards, Caden Fayan, he really solid runner, and the backups are pretty decent for Illinois too, but they're averaging 133 yards a game on the ground.
- 4:40[SPEAKER_01]: It's good for 11 at the big 10.
- 4:42[SPEAKER_01]: Then there's a little skewed though.
- 4:44[SPEAKER_01]: I believe they only have two rushing yards against
- 4:47[SPEAKER_01]: So we'll skewed there, but against USC, they're 171 yards in the ground.
- 4:52[SPEAKER_00]: So, by the way, they had 60 some rushing yards against IU, but all my her had almost 60 yards and losses and facts.
- 5:00[SPEAKER_00]: Okay.
- 5:01[SPEAKER_00]: That's how good the IU pass rush was of that game.
- 5:05[SPEAKER_00]: And it's producing its impression.
- 5:07[SPEAKER_00]: We now know that there's susceptible to that.
- 5:10[SPEAKER_01]: Illinois has allowed 17 snacks already
- 5:14[SPEAKER_01]: The first, I guess, five weeks now in that college football.
- 5:18[SPEAKER_01]: So Purdue does struggle to kind of generate pressure.
- 5:22[SPEAKER_01]: And that kind of leaves the secondary out on some islands, which we've seen how good teams can exploit that.
- 5:29[SPEAKER_01]: But hopefully this with kind of a weaker line, and a big tin, Purdue can come in and try to exploit that.
- 5:36[SPEAKER_01]: So I know we've talked on the past, losing offensive tackle, TJ Lenzzi is out for the year
- 5:44[SPEAKER_01]: on that hurts, but hopefully any pal Charles Correa and some of the D.P.
- 5:50[SPEAKER_01]: So, if they can kind of crash in and cause some havoc there in the back shield.
- 5:55[SPEAKER_00]: They've really been dominated.
- 5:57[SPEAKER_00]: The defensive fronts really been dominated the last couple of weeks USC and Notre Dame two of the best offensive front lines in all of college football.
- 6:07[SPEAKER_00]: So, it's going to probably going to be nice to go up against the line that isn't going to completely dominate.
- 6:11[SPEAKER_00]: It'll be interesting to find out.
- 6:13[SPEAKER_00]: if the defense can be pretty good, if they're not getting beat up front badly.
- 6:20[SPEAKER_01]: Also, I just kind of like looking at Illinois schedule, I'm obviously really no proof coming off of the bite, but Illinois is playing their sixth-grade game.
- 6:28[SPEAKER_01]: I know that there's had a pretty emotional and big win against USC at home.
- 6:33[SPEAKER_01]: Next week, looking ahead, they've got Ohio State, where they were at Ohio State in Columbus.
- 6:39[SPEAKER_01]: So, since we had a game where,
- 6:42[SPEAKER_01]: Uh, you know, they could be overlooking Purdue and it could be on your radar for a trap game.
- 6:47[SPEAKER_01]: Uh, I think, you know, Illinois still has a really good chance, but definitely begin my took on not out of the realm of possibility here for the footballers to sneak away for when.
- 6:59[SPEAKER_00]: The line I gave up 267 passing yards last week against USC, 312 rushing yards against IU, the week before almost seven yards of carry.
- 7:13[SPEAKER_00]: So it's a defense as vulnerable, but it's also a defense that's very talented and fast and makes plays and can cause havoc.
- 7:22[SPEAKER_00]: Never got a chance against IU, but we've seen it throughout the year otherwise.
- 7:26[SPEAKER_01]: But it's going to have to be a balance to attack.
- 7:29[SPEAKER_01]: Illinois secondary is banged up a little bit, losing Xavier Scott, where it was a hard loss for Illinois.
- 7:38[SPEAKER_01]: But it's going to be more of a balance to attack, whether it be Machia B or maybe we see a little more of Antonio Harris or Mount Kaitana, as maybe we see a little more of them, or just trying to get, you know, Ryan Brown's legs just moving more often, whether that be, you know,
- 7:55[SPEAKER_01]: design, it could be runs or, you know, RPOs that brown the sides to keep.
- 8:01[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, it definitely could have to try to exploit the ground game.
- 8:05[SPEAKER_01]: And, you know, over the past couple games, again, I know if it was played good competition, but mockery hasn't, hasn't really done a whole lot.
- 8:13[SPEAKER_01]: It's got 70 carries, but against Notre Dame, average 1.3 yards per carry.
- 8:25[SPEAKER_01]: I haven't generated a lot from the ground game here so far over the past couple of games.
- 8:30[SPEAKER_00]: I've got a couple of games definitely been disappointing.
- 8:32[SPEAKER_00]: The thing about could be had a really nice run early in the USC game and we really haven't heard from them since much.
- 8:39[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.
- 8:41[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, they might be able to run on USC a little bit and it's just disappeared since then.
- 8:48[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, and to be fair,
- 8:50[SPEAKER_00]: Every single position on both front lines, offense and defense, every player on Purdue is out matched by Notre Dame.
- 8:58[SPEAKER_00]: It's just going to happen from time to time.
- 9:01[SPEAKER_01]: Illinois does rank 58 nationally against the run.
- 9:05[SPEAKER_01]: So you're not elite, but they definitely are a solid group.
- 9:20[SPEAKER_00]: Uh, is capable of getting to the quarterback early and often, one of the top, um, and deepest defense of France and the, uh, uh, defense of front lines and, and the big 10 for sure.
- 9:32[SPEAKER_01]: The front line or Illinois defense has generated 13 sacks, um, so far this season, uh, only two interceptions, but uh, the 13 sacks, I get that, that, uh, kind of limbs to, it
- 9:48[SPEAKER_01]: And I'll have a ton of experience that we're starting together on the front, but that right side is kind of weak on the line.
- 9:57[SPEAKER_01]: So I get helpful, also good by a week, you know, they're able to get some things figured out, but I think Illinois knows that the line isn't necessarily strong suit.
- 10:07[SPEAKER_01]: So I would miss fate seeing some blitzes and trying to get Ryan Brown, you know, moving.
- 10:15[SPEAKER_00]: The other thing is you're going to have to contain their receivers.
- 10:18[SPEAKER_00]: We know that Altmire is going to complete passes.
- 10:20[SPEAKER_00]: He does it at over 70%, by the way, 11 touchdowns that no interception so far this season for him.
- 10:29[SPEAKER_00]: You've got to limit those because against Duke, Duke was not able to keep the receivers in front of them, and they just had their field had a field day with Duke.
- 10:37[SPEAKER_00]: And if you allow them to do that, you're a big trouble.
- 10:45[SPEAKER_01]: And this is the secondary that gives up 65% on completions, so not ranked highly and pass efficiency defense either the ranked 110th and path of pass efficiency defense.
- 11:00[SPEAKER_01]: So like we talked about, gotta get a lot of pressure to try to give the secondary some time to work and so they're not on an island and end up like how the Duke came into the
- 11:15[SPEAKER_00]: 10 straight big 10 losses the last big 10 win was 35 to 31 over IU and the bucket game two years ago.
- 11:26[SPEAKER_00]: You think it ends this weekend?
- 11:30[SPEAKER_01]: I might my heart wants to say yes, but my head knows better than that.
- 11:35[SPEAKER_01]: I I really hope they can, but I think Illinois just just too good and I think.
- 11:42[SPEAKER_01]: Ryan Brown is getting better, felt the every game it seems like he's progressed a little bit.
- 11:49[SPEAKER_01]: So what for him to continue to get better, but yeah, it makes for a great story here to for Ryan Brown to come back and get the win after he kind of came in and took over that Illinois
- 12:12[SPEAKER_01]: Illinois's defense, and yeah, I don't have a lot of faith in the secondary, I think Alt-Mire can be kind of just terrible part, so yeah, I think I hope that Purdue can still cover the spread.
- 12:27[SPEAKER_01]: Last time I woke, it was nine and a half.
- 12:29[SPEAKER_01]: So I think they have a chance to cover there, but I still think Illinois takes us one.
- 12:36[SPEAKER_00]: According to ESPN analytics, Purdue has a 25.3% chance of winning the game, and I think that's better than we would have expected coming into the season.
- 12:48[SPEAKER_00]: Minnesota and Northwestern Rutgers back to back to back the next three weeks, three winnable games.
- 12:54[SPEAKER_00]: Minnesota is pretty good.
- 12:56[SPEAKER_00]: They'll be probably underdogs at Minnesota.
- 12:59[SPEAKER_00]: But I think there might be favorites at Northwestern and a home against Rutgers, if they can play Illinois and Minnesota well.
- 13:07[SPEAKER_01]: And we've talked about before how we think.
- 13:11[SPEAKER_01]: Purdue, I mean, they have they have a realistic shot of coming out of these games three and one.
- 13:17[SPEAKER_01]: That would be obviously a pretty ideal.
- 13:19[SPEAKER_01]: The realistically thinking we've we've got.
- 13:25[SPEAKER_01]: probably going to come away to and to hear you hope anyway, you know, yeah, come being come out to and to from this October stretch.
- 13:32[SPEAKER_01]: And we've talked about the, you know, the gauntlet of November that that Purdue has, you know, playing Michigan, Ohio State.
- 13:43[SPEAKER_01]: I got Washington in the end and there.
- 13:45[SPEAKER_01]: So it's brutal.
- 13:47[SPEAKER_01]: It's yeah, brutal November.
- 13:49[SPEAKER_01]: So if you kind of, you know,
- 13:53[SPEAKER_01]: kind of build up some confident to kind of need to win the United States to kill into November.
- 13:57[SPEAKER_01]: So I think you know that you're probably not going to win a game in November, so you need to you to win the ones that you have a shot in.
- 14:07[SPEAKER_00]: And I'd say one and three is probably more likely than three and one, but not by much.
- 14:14[SPEAKER_01]: I think three and one, I'd probably give that.
- 14:17[SPEAKER_01]: I think 25% is
- 14:23[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, because I think produce produce play really well, but I think Minnesota is definitely beatable.
- 14:28[SPEAKER_01]: If it was that Purdue, I feel a lot better about it.
- 14:32[SPEAKER_01]: They should be Northwestern and records with it be in homecoming for Purdue.
- 14:38[SPEAKER_01]: I think Purdue is a good shot to win that one.
- 14:43[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I think three and one, 25% chance, two and two, you know, probably a 70% chance
- 14:52[SPEAKER_01]: and one and three, I guess that leaves 5% left for that.
- 14:58[SPEAKER_01]: But yeah, maybe I don't maybe I'm a little higher there on the team than I should be, but yeah, I think 3-1 possible, the 2-2.
- 15:08[SPEAKER_01]: I probably get a pretty good shot of coming away, knocked over 2-2.
- 15:13[SPEAKER_00]: Yes, being an analytics says, oh and four, by the way.
- 15:16[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, Western, 49% chance of winning at Northwestern.
- 15:23[SPEAKER_01]: Maybe Northwestern will show something here over the next couple of weeks, but it looks better than they looked early in the season, but they're still not.
- 15:30[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.
- 15:31[SPEAKER_00]: By the way, 37% chance of beating Rutgers at home is what?
- 15:36[SPEAKER_00]: Yes, piano analytics.
- 15:37[SPEAKER_00]: Wow.
- 15:37[SPEAKER_01]: Okay.
- 15:38[SPEAKER_01]: So the analytics are not liking or not liking Purdue.
- 15:42[SPEAKER_00]: 31% chance at in Minnesota.
- 15:46[SPEAKER_00]: I agree with you though.
- 15:48[SPEAKER_00]: I think those numbers are are off.
- 15:50[SPEAKER_00]: I could be wrong.
- 15:51[SPEAKER_00]: But again, the Notre Dame game is going to be so skewed in the eyes of these things, just because of the mismatch, so many positions that you're not going to have against Minnesota, Northwestern Rutgers.
- 16:04[SPEAKER_00]: and Illinois.
- 16:05[SPEAKER_00]: Maybe Illinois.
- 16:06[SPEAKER_00]: But those are the three for sure.
- 16:08[SPEAKER_00]: You're not going to have those kinds of mismatches.
- 16:10[SPEAKER_00]: So it'll come down to more strategy and individual matchups rather than just being dominated.
- 16:18[SPEAKER_00]: And I like their chances of winning some of those games.
- 16:20[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.
- 16:21[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, completely agree.
- 16:34[SPEAKER_00]: And I can't wait, man.
- 16:37[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, practice has started.
- 16:39[SPEAKER_01]: So I've been here a lot of good things about Jacari Harris in CJ Cox in particular.
- 16:45[SPEAKER_01]: So I think those would be kind of your breakout candidates for the team.
- 16:49[SPEAKER_01]: I think it's going to take a little bit for over a mile or really kind of get the handle of things and to be in a system.
- 17:01[SPEAKER_01]: and playing pro ball in Israel, they'd run basically one set.
- 17:07[SPEAKER_01]: If it didn't work, it was ISO ball.
- 17:09[SPEAKER_01]: We're at a period that's not necessarily the case.
- 17:13[SPEAKER_01]: So I think it's gonna take him a little bit to get an acclimated.
- 17:16[SPEAKER_01]: So you may start the season coming off the bench, but I still think he'll be a really great addition of this team, especially for next year, kind of taking over for Brandon Smith after he graduates.
- 17:30[SPEAKER_00]: We have a new boiler maker in the fold for 2025, 26, for the 26, 27 season in Rivers night, six, eight from Lalu, Meere, and Northern Indiana commitment for Coach Painter.
- 17:45[SPEAKER_00]: I also missed out on two of the nation's top players, but we're used to that, aren't we?
- 17:51[SPEAKER_00]: Boogden chose Texas, Ralph Scott chose Tennessee, but
- 17:57[SPEAKER_00]: Matt Payner will be with players inferior to yours.
- 18:02[SPEAKER_01]: For some context, Bo Ogden's dad is a coach on Texas's team.
- 18:08[SPEAKER_01]: So I think it was hard to get him away from there.
- 18:13[SPEAKER_01]: But I think a de-dis is kind of throwing a lot of money out there for recruitment.
- 18:20[SPEAKER_01]: At Tennessee is an idea to school.
- 18:27[SPEAKER_01]: You know, the money sometimes hurt for producing.
- 18:29[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I did wouldn't, uh, you're a big man, and you see what, uh, painer and brandly have done a Purdue.
- 18:36[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.
- 18:37[SPEAKER_01]: I would think that's where you'd want to end up, but what do I, yeah, I think produce, produce bread and butter is getting people that want to be up Purdue.
- 18:45[SPEAKER_01]: Everybody knows that trade coffin ran, sprayed Smith, Flutterware.
- 18:48[SPEAKER_01]: They could have went elsewhere and made more money, uh, but they want to be up Purdue.
- 18:52[SPEAKER_01]: They want to be with, with Matt Painter and that speaks a lot
- 18:56[SPEAKER_01]: the program that he and his staff have built a Purdue.
- 18:59[SPEAKER_01]: So those are the guys you won on the team.
- 19:00[SPEAKER_01]: So yeah, it sucks to miss out on recruits like that.
- 19:05[SPEAKER_01]: But you know, your new guy, guys like River's night, I think he's got a pretty similar story to Mason Gillis where they had some injuries in high school that kind of, you know, cooled off their recruitment.
- 19:17[SPEAKER_01]: Matt Painter was able to find Mason Gillis and became a big part of for his run to the National Championship.
- 19:22[SPEAKER_01]: And obviously we hope that River's night could be the same.
- 19:26[SPEAKER_01]: He's a guy that looks like you come in and may red shirt, but definitely a developmental guy who I think has a pretty good shot of making a big impact here at Purdue.
- 19:40[SPEAKER_00]: Speaking of trade-confident, and I think I may have said this on the podcast.
- 19:43[SPEAKER_00]: If I haven't, I covered him all the way back to middle school and I enjoyed watching him play.
- 19:50[SPEAKER_00]: I was really excited when Purdue recruited him as a possible guy who.
- 19:55[SPEAKER_00]: could start by a senior year and give him 8 points and 6 rebounds a game and never mild wildest dreams that I imagine that he would be the top power forward in the country and here he is.
- 20:09[SPEAKER_01]: Coffin Renn is really admire his patience and willingness to work and just his mindset when it comes to the game.
- 20:18[SPEAKER_01]: So I am proud to that he
- 20:22[SPEAKER_01]: is a boiler maker, proud that he looked up.
- 20:25[SPEAKER_01]: I didn't go somewhere else to make more money.
- 20:27[SPEAKER_01]: And I really bought him to coach Painter and the system that is at Purdue.
- 20:34[SPEAKER_00]: You look up, bought in in the dictionary and that guy just from day one, including the red shirt just bought into Painter's plan.
- 20:44[SPEAKER_01]: I think it's said to go precedents for other recruits.
- 20:48[SPEAKER_01]: like a river tonight, that show that if you buy into the, you buy in, you work to tail off, and you've got a good chance to really make an impact at this university.
- 20:59[SPEAKER_01]: So really just proud of the players on this team, you know, wanting to come back and knowing that they have a shot to win the national championship, not just in it for the money.
- 21:09[SPEAKER_01]: Don't get me wrong, they're still getting paid very well.
- 21:11[SPEAKER_01]: But like we talked about, it could have gone elsewhere to make more money.
- 21:15[SPEAKER_01]: But yeah, just really,
- 21:17[SPEAKER_01]: Really, I think for what I have coach Painter to help.
- 21:23[SPEAKER_00]: I don't know what to do with myself with a coach that I just never complain about him.
- 21:27[SPEAKER_00]: He does some things that I disagree with, but I've gotten to the point where I say, he's usually right in the end, why would I even complain about it?
- 21:35[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.
- 21:36[SPEAKER_00]: So real fast before we go, just want to
- 21:42[SPEAKER_00]: Let everybody know the current odds to win the national championship Purdue is the favorite of the Betty markets at 9 to 1.
- 21:50[SPEAKER_00]: That's down from 14 to 1 on April 7th.
- 21:53[SPEAKER_00]: So a lot of money coming in on the boiler makers apparently.
- 21:57[SPEAKER_00]: then Houston is 10-1, Duke 11-1, UConn, Florida, and Kentucky 17-1, Michigan, same John's 19-1, and BYU Kansas Louisville and Texas Tech are 20-1.
- 22:14[SPEAKER_00]: So Purdue is in the compiled betting markets the favorite to win the national championship.
- 22:23[SPEAKER_01]: If you would have told me 5, 10 years ago that Purdue would be the odd zone favorite to win the national championship.
- 22:30[SPEAKER_01]: I would have taken that hard piece.
- 22:31[SPEAKER_00]: It's giving you a margin of 5 years ago if they said you're going to be able to play pay players pretty much at will and then think that Purdue is still going to have the best college basketball program in the country.
- 22:43[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I would not have believed it at one bit.
- 22:46[SPEAKER_00]: Not one bit.
- 22:47[SPEAKER_00]: And they've done it.
- 22:49[SPEAKER_00]: and not overly paying play obviously they've paid who they've brought in.
- 22:54[SPEAKER_00]: But, um, you know, they don't get into bidding wars.
- 22:58[SPEAKER_00]: They don't, you know, and they still find the right guys.
- 23:02[SPEAKER_00]: From all reports, they're not into bidding wars.
- 23:05[SPEAKER_00]: Jake, thanks so much.
- 23:07[SPEAKER_00]: You can't rest Saturday.
- 23:08[SPEAKER_00]: Can't wait for basketball.
- 23:10[SPEAKER_00]: Thanks for having me.