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Ground Signal — October 25, 2026 · Ground Signal FM

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  This is Ground Signal, your daily briefing for
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  Sunday, October 25, 2026. Today, Brazil votes,
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  Hormuz stays tense, oil hits a six -month high,
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  and Ukraine and Russia agree on a narrow truce.
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  Global news. Signal 5, Brazil. Voters choose
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  a president today in a runoff that polls call
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  a coin flip. Flavio Bolsonaro is slightly ahead
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  or tied against Lula in most late surveys. One
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  poll average. gives Bolsonaro 51 .1 % of valid
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  votes to Lula's 48 .9%. That gap sits inside
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  the margin of error. Expect a long count and
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  possible challenges tonight. Signal 4, straight
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  of Hormuz. Iran said seven oil tankers were attacked
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  there, with ships damaged or on fire. According
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  to AP, fears are growing of a return to all -out
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  war. Iran also repeated a threat to attack American
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  bases in the region, according to the Los Angeles
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  Times. shipping insurers and traders are pricing
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  in a longer disruption. Signal 4, Saudi Arabia.
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  Riyadh reported intercepting more drones and
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  missiles as fighting with Yemen's Houthis continues.
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  Reuters says the attacks persisted on Saturday.
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  The Gulf risk premium is not fading. Signal 3,
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  Ukraine. Russia and Ukraine agreed to a local
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  ceasefire in the occupied town of Boleshki. Reuters
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  reports that wider peace talks are planned for
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  next month. It is narrow, but it is a start.
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  Signal 3, France. President Macron faces new
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  protests and is calling for unity after a Gulf
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  trip. Le Monde describes him as weaker than ever.
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  Watch for street pressure this week. Markets
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  and crypto. Friday was a rough close. The S &P
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  500 fell 0 .52 % to 7 ,623 .86 as rising oil
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  prices weighed on stocks. Tech and telecom names
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  led the slide. Brent crude closed at $116 .72
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  a barrel. its highest close since April. The
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  10 -year Treasury yield ended near 4 .99%. The
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  dollar index finished at 101 .81. Bitcoin trades
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  near $80 ,200, down about half a percent. It
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  has held a range above $79 ,000 through the weekend.
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  Oil and yields are the macro drivers to watch
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  Monday. Tech and future. The Atlantic argues
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  that AI -enabled attacks should be treated as
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  terrorism. It cites a Harvard Kennedy School
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  paper about a possible first major AI -enabled
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  event. Separately, one market roundup says Anthropic
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  could file its IPO prospectus as early as this
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  week. The same roundup says AWS capacity is sold
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  out for 2026. Treat both as unconfirmed reports.
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  Mobility. A U .S. appeals court has kept the
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  75 -country immigrant visa rule blocked. Applicants
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  from affected countries can still proceed for
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  now. Check your consulate for the latest guidance.
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  The State Department also widened online presence
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  review for some non -immigrant visa applicants,
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  effective October 1. Make sure your public social
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  accounts match your application details. Forward
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  signal. First, Brazil's result tonight and how
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  close the count runs. Second, whether Hormuz
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  attacks continue and push Brent higher. Third,
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  whether the Oleschke truce holds ahead of November
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  talks. That is your signal for October 25. Ground
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  signal returns tomorrow.