Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / Betting NFL Season Win Totals w/pro bettor Simon Hunter

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Betting NFL Season Win Totals w/pro bettor Simon Hunter · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:09
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites the podcast. I am Chad Nooman,
0:13
Speaker 1: your host from the Action Network. Today, there's a lot
0:17
Speaker 1: of enthusiasm for the return of sports. The UFC has
0:20
Speaker 1: come back strong. People are betting it. Brunous Liga is
0:24
Speaker 1: getting loads of bets. The match was a massive betting event.
0:28
Speaker 1: Tiger Woods film Michelson, Tom Brady, Peyton manning. The NBA
0:33
Speaker 1: is helping to come back in July. But I can
0:35
Speaker 1: tell you right now, nothing matters more than the NFL.
0:40
Speaker 1: And since the schedule release, professional betters throughout the country
0:43
Speaker 1: have been in their labs, working their formula, trying to
0:46
Speaker 1: find the opportunities, especially with season win totals, all of
0:51
Speaker 1: which you can find in the Action Network Gap. It's free.
0:54
Speaker 1: Download the Action Network Gap. You'll be able to see
0:56
Speaker 1: season win totals for every team in the NFL. Oh
1:01
Speaker 1: to discuss all of this, Joining me from his home
1:03
Speaker 1: in New Jersey podcast regular Professional Better Mr Simon Hunter.
1:08
Speaker 1: It's going on, brother, Chad, My man's going on. Buddy.
1:12
Speaker 1: You live in You're surviving, You're getting through this time.
1:15
Speaker 1: It's like it's kind of not that different for you. No,
1:18
Speaker 1: it's actually it's it's funny where I mean, I guess
1:20
Speaker 1: the taking little vacations and relaxing took a quick quick break.
1:24
Speaker 1: I mean only got like a month before the pandemic
1:26
Speaker 1: started right after the Super Bowl. But it gave me
1:29
Speaker 1: just more time just to dive and everything, and it
1:32
Speaker 1: was really really fun just tinkering with everything just because
1:36
Speaker 1: oh we had is time. So everyone can put time
1:38
Speaker 1: to what they want to do, and I always put
1:40
Speaker 1: time to football, so it just gave me more time
1:42
Speaker 1: to do what I love. So it's nice, all right.
1:45
Speaker 1: So I want to talk about season win totals, and
1:47
Speaker 1: I want to look at him from a few different perspectives,
1:49
Speaker 1: and by the end of this we will have touched
1:51
Speaker 1: on just about every single team. But first, the way
1:54
Speaker 1: the foundation, like people who are just starting to do this,
1:56
Speaker 1: people are locked up at home. Schedules are out, um
2:00
Speaker 1: draft has happened, free agency has happened. What do you
2:05
Speaker 1: do when the schedules come out? Like? Are you how
2:09
Speaker 1: are you creating your formulas for season win totals? So
2:13
Speaker 1: so basically when I do, I go team by team
2:16
Speaker 1: and I'm just putting all the data in for that,
2:18
Speaker 1: the same data I'll be using for the beginning of
2:20
Speaker 1: the season, I'll think, or with it as the Pricesson
2:23
Speaker 1: goes on, you can get more data and figure out
2:25
Speaker 1: what teams are running. System wise, it's schematically and like
2:28
Speaker 1: the players they brought in, how do they fit into
2:31
Speaker 1: these systems? Because people do get it, that are diehard fans,
2:35
Speaker 1: that people that are new to betting in football, they
2:37
Speaker 1: don't get how much of a turnover sport is. That's
2:39
Speaker 1: why as a pro it's the best because there's just
2:41
Speaker 1: so much value in a sport where I think, what
2:45
Speaker 1: is it every year there's six new teams in the playoffs,
2:47
Speaker 1: are four new teams in the playoffs, So it's it's
2:49
Speaker 1: just the league where there's just constant turnover. So when
2:52
Speaker 1: you're looking at it, you're trying to see what people
2:54
Speaker 1: aren't gona see and you're trying to just find that value.
2:57
Speaker 1: So when you're doing see the win totals that I mean,
3:01
Speaker 1: we talked, I think it was the middle of March,
3:03
Speaker 1: early March, just like they put up lines already, and
3:06
Speaker 1: I gave out the Cardinals and I gave about Denver.
3:08
Speaker 1: So when I gave out the Cardinals, they're they're wind
3:10
Speaker 1: totals six And now the Sharps have hit it. It's
3:13
Speaker 1: up to seven and a half, and that's one of
3:15
Speaker 1: those where there was value and you can still take
3:18
Speaker 1: that Cardinals over, but there's not as a pro there's
3:21
Speaker 1: just isn't value anymore just because the number has already
3:23
Speaker 1: been bought up. So when we go through these season
3:25
Speaker 1: wind totals, we're just we're pretty much saying that this
3:29
Speaker 1: is where the value is because there isn't gonna be
3:31
Speaker 1: valued every single on a lot of these are public teams,
3:33
Speaker 1: they're gonna be bet up by now, so you need
3:35
Speaker 1: to just try to find the value in the wind
3:36
Speaker 1: totals that we're the odds of this team hitting this number,
3:40
Speaker 1: and you just pretty much I hope for the best
3:42
Speaker 1: when the season starts, right, But when you say that
3:45
Speaker 1: there's a lot of turnover in this league, that actually,
3:48
Speaker 1: I don't know that people think about it that way
3:52
Speaker 1: because when they're making their odds for season wind totals,
3:55
Speaker 1: I think they're oftentimes thinking what quarterback has gone, what
3:59
Speaker 1: running back is gone, what skill positions player is gone.
4:03
Speaker 1: So if you're thinking about the turnover and where the
4:05
Speaker 1: value is, how deep are you going into the roster?
4:09
Speaker 1: You have to look at it from There's so many
4:11
Speaker 1: different angles in football, but the biggest one is the
4:13
Speaker 1: quarterback position. So the year Patrick Mahomes game, and it
4:17
Speaker 1: was his first year started, so he had the week seventeen,
4:19
Speaker 1: he looked amazing and coming into his rookie year or
4:22
Speaker 1: his second year, but it was his first year of starting.
4:24
Speaker 1: You're you're looking at that in the value that this
4:26
Speaker 1: is an eight year read system. This kid seems like
4:29
Speaker 1: he's got an arm and I think they're over under
4:31
Speaker 1: that year with seven and a half of eight. And
4:32
Speaker 1: so you just look at that number right there, it's like,
4:34
Speaker 1: if this guy fits the system, well, the lowest number
4:37
Speaker 1: I can see them hitting as nine. So you hit
4:39
Speaker 1: that kind of over where this year. The quarterback craft,
4:42
Speaker 1: there isn't something like that where you have you can
4:46
Speaker 1: see a quarterback coming into a new system and it's
4:48
Speaker 1: really gonna spark that quarterback. I know a lot of people,
4:51
Speaker 1: I mean, we can start with a lot of people
4:53
Speaker 1: are gonna love Joe Burrow. I mean people are just
4:57
Speaker 1: obsessed with Joe bur and I get it. That was
4:59
Speaker 1: seriously in the most fun college teams I've ever seen.
5:02
Speaker 1: But if you look at that roster yet his whole
5:04
Speaker 1: team was drafted in the first round. So Joe Burrow
5:08
Speaker 1: is going from playing with arguably the greatest college offense
5:12
Speaker 1: ever with some of the greatest talent ever on his
5:14
Speaker 1: team to the Cincinnati Bagels. Fuit, Yeah, they had talent,
5:18
Speaker 1: but in my system, when my great out there, they're
5:20
Speaker 1: seriously want to the worst offensive lines. I mean, the
5:23
Speaker 1: battle line is terrible, and I don't like their coach.
5:26
Speaker 1: Where you can tell a lot by how a team
5:28
Speaker 1: adjust at halftime, and the Bengals were dominated time and
5:32
Speaker 1: time again last year in the second half. So people
5:35
Speaker 1: need to start thinking, yeah, Joe Burrow is great, but
5:37
Speaker 1: you have to look at the pieces of around. He
5:38
Speaker 1: doesn't have a good head coach, He's got a battle
5:40
Speaker 1: line that just reeks for a disaster first year for him.
5:44
Speaker 1: So do you ever under them first five and a
5:45
Speaker 1: half for the season. I love, I love the value
5:48
Speaker 1: of the five under and a five and a half
5:50
Speaker 1: under in that division. I just think he's not gonna
5:53
Speaker 1: it's not gonna be all roses going undefeated in college football.
5:56
Speaker 1: He's gonna's gonna get hit in the mouth and it's
5:58
Speaker 1: gonna be tough from good just al right, So the
6:01
Speaker 1: under five and a half is actually plus money right now.
6:05
Speaker 1: I think that's uh plus one oh two. And that
6:09
Speaker 1: tells you a little bit about what the public is thinking.
6:11
Speaker 1: Because Joe Burrow was such a prominent they love him, right,
6:16
Speaker 1: And that's that's sort of the difference of the question
6:19
Speaker 1: I'm asking. Right, you're looking at offensive line, you're looking
6:22
Speaker 1: as deep as halftime adjustments made by the coach and all.
6:27
Speaker 1: Anybody that's betting from the public perspective is going to think, Oh,
6:30
Speaker 1: it's Joe Burrow, Heisman winner, glory boy, you know that's
6:34
Speaker 1: that he's going to be the number one pick. He's
6:35
Speaker 1: he's the number one pick. He's going to turn that
6:37
Speaker 1: team around immediately. And like in my system, like when
6:40
Speaker 1: I do the simulations of the whole season, I got
6:43
Speaker 1: them at three point six wins, Like, so the odds
6:45
Speaker 1: of them exceeding five and a half is like that's
6:49
Speaker 1: a you know, two three hundred games that a hundred
6:53
Speaker 1: seasons they played. That he might be able to do that,
6:55
Speaker 1: but it's just the odds are stacked way against them.
6:57
Speaker 1: From the coaching staff. He's going into to the offensive line,
7:01
Speaker 1: all right, we got Bengals under five and a half
7:04
Speaker 1: you love that, Um, you've simulated them at under four winds. Uh,
7:11
Speaker 1: let me ask you the question before we get into
7:12
Speaker 1: some teams. I like that we're cheasing people a little
7:15
Speaker 1: bit here. How do you feel about tying your money
7:19
Speaker 1: up for an entire season? And how many units do
7:23
Speaker 1: you end up putting on these versus a regular season game.
7:28
Speaker 1: So for for most people like that are starting out
7:31
Speaker 1: and just they're doing this for a side hustle and
7:33
Speaker 1: just trying to build a bankroll before you have a
7:36
Speaker 1: real bank I'll say a real bank roll is ten
7:39
Speaker 1: thousand dollars for most people for gambling that that's that's
7:42
Speaker 1: legit bankroll. Most common people are gonna be using like
7:45
Speaker 1: a thousand bucks for a season. So if you're doing
7:47
Speaker 1: that kind of stuff, you're doing win totals, you should
7:49
Speaker 1: have maybe only do two or three you really like
7:51
Speaker 1: and maybe put twenty of thirty dollars and you don't
7:54
Speaker 1: don't put too much because for most people this is
7:57
Speaker 1: like for prose, we're just finding really good edges here
7:59
Speaker 1: and next bet on, mostly there's gonna be a thousand.
8:01
Speaker 1: Most casinos don't want that kind of liability. So it's
8:05
Speaker 1: one of those if you're building a bank roll, you
8:07
Speaker 1: should only be doing maybe three or forties, because I do.
8:09
Speaker 1: I do every single team because there's value obviously every
8:11
Speaker 1: single one. But you don't want to be you don't
8:16
Speaker 1: want to be putting all your bank rolls so early
8:17
Speaker 1: in the season, Like like when I told you those
8:19
Speaker 1: long shots like a month ago to Denver in Arizona.
8:22
Speaker 1: That's a nice one where you're throwing a hundred bucks
8:24
Speaker 1: on it, you can win five thousands. So those are
8:27
Speaker 1: the kind of things you want to do with your
8:28
Speaker 1: bankroll where you want to take those long shot up
8:30
Speaker 1: sides where if you only hit one every ten years,
8:33
Speaker 1: it's gonna pay you back tenfold. So that's what I'm
8:36
Speaker 1: talking about, was like upside long shots. All right, hold on,
8:39
Speaker 1: you just said to me that you might put a
8:41
Speaker 1: futures bet on all thirty two NFL teams. Definitely, But
8:46
Speaker 1: there's gonna be ones I'm gonna hit kind of fifteen
8:49
Speaker 1: times in a month, and then I hit him again
8:51
Speaker 1: right before the season starts, where it's like they're not adjusting.
8:54
Speaker 1: The public still going the other way, and I'm reading
8:56
Speaker 1: it really well, Like the easiest one that stood outlast
8:59
Speaker 1: year was stamp in. So Sam Fryan Jimmy g was
9:02
Speaker 1: coming back and I even saw him up from their backup.
9:04
Speaker 1: That was like in this kid's second year, I could
9:06
Speaker 1: see him winning eight games. So that's what they're they're
9:08
Speaker 1: over under. Last year was eight seven and a half.
9:11
Speaker 1: That that's to me is just easy money. Where they
9:14
Speaker 1: were the bottom of the league the year before. So
9:16
Speaker 1: they're getting an easy schedule and all they need is
9:18
Speaker 1: a QB to stay healthy for maybe half the year.
9:20
Speaker 1: They're starting quarterback and they're gonna probably hit that over.
9:23
Speaker 1: So those are the things we're looking for. You're looking for, Well,
9:25
Speaker 1: there's value where other people aren't seen it. They're just
9:27
Speaker 1: gonna think, oh, the same thing is gonna happen again.
9:29
Speaker 1: The Rams will win that division, the Seattle will come
9:31
Speaker 1: in second, and Sam Fran will be in the body.
9:34
Speaker 1: So it's just funny how people are just so stuck
9:37
Speaker 1: on the year before, they're not looking for what's more
9:39
Speaker 1: likely to happen the following year. How much have you
9:42
Speaker 1: changed your strategy for this year and tying up that
9:44
Speaker 1: kind of money not knowing yet what's going to happen
9:48
Speaker 1: in the fall. Uh, I honestly was worried, like I
9:52
Speaker 1: did future bets um right after the Super Bowl, like
9:55
Speaker 1: I always do that right before I go away for
9:57
Speaker 1: a little break, like teams I like like the Tampa
9:59
Speaker 1: Bay and I did that not knowing at all that
10:02
Speaker 1: Brave is going back there. I just saw enough that
10:04
Speaker 1: if Winston just threw half his interceptions, they're gonna be
10:06
Speaker 1: in the playoffs and fifty one that's great odds to
10:09
Speaker 1: win the super Bowl. But it's now the point where
10:13
Speaker 1: I'm not nervous at all, because it's just the way
10:16
Speaker 1: people's attitudes are towards, especially different states, how people are acting.
10:20
Speaker 1: It just seems like everyone's gonna be comfortable enough that
10:22
Speaker 1: there's gonna be a season and there's still gonna be
10:24
Speaker 1: fans in the stadium. Like I was starting to work
10:27
Speaker 1: on a whole different part of my system where I
10:29
Speaker 1: was gonna deduct teams I usually have a good home
10:31
Speaker 1: crowd advantage, and they were're gonna have fans anymore, and
10:34
Speaker 1: that was really gonna hurt them. That's a really big
10:36
Speaker 1: deal no fans in the stadium. But it sounds like
10:39
Speaker 1: that there's gonna be fans, So I'm not too worried
10:41
Speaker 1: yet about that. But you might have to you might
10:44
Speaker 1: have to address for that. It might not be fans.
10:47
Speaker 1: We actually don't know yet and and if that comes down,
10:52
Speaker 1: it depends on like the certain states and what they're
10:54
Speaker 1: gonna do. But like the obvious teams like the like
10:59
Speaker 1: the Seattle Seahawks, the Eagles, I mean, there's plenty of
11:02
Speaker 1: teams where people know they're that home field advantage, and
11:05
Speaker 1: if there aren't those fans in that stadium, some teams
11:08
Speaker 1: are gonna lose two to three points just just off
11:10
Speaker 1: that off the spread. I think those Vegas is gonna
11:12
Speaker 1: do the same thing like that. Some of these Week
11:14
Speaker 1: one lines, they were doing that already kind of, so
11:17
Speaker 1: it is funny to see that. I think most people
11:20
Speaker 1: are guessing now at this point there's anny fans in
11:22
Speaker 1: the stadium. Alright, So you mentioned I want to talk
11:24
Speaker 1: about some of the headlines coming out of the season
11:26
Speaker 1: so far, coming out of the off season, you mentioned
11:29
Speaker 1: Tom Brady, the Bucks. Their season win total. Right now,
11:33
Speaker 1: looking in the Action Network Gap which is free, you
11:35
Speaker 1: can download again every season win total. Oh god, okay,
11:39
Speaker 1: let's see the Bucks are at over nine and a
11:42
Speaker 1: half minus under nine and a half minus one tent
11:46
Speaker 1: so bookmakers are asking you to bet the under here.
11:49
Speaker 1: How did that adjust after the Tom Brady news and
11:52
Speaker 1: how do you grade that one? It's funny when you
11:54
Speaker 1: graded out that Brady is only a positive over Winston
11:57
Speaker 1: because of the non turn members that that is like
11:59
Speaker 1: a huge deal and the sense that the Bucks were
12:02
Speaker 1: always behind. So when you're grading out their defense, especially
12:05
Speaker 1: for this coming here, they're they're grated out there. But
12:07
Speaker 1: like Daniel Jones for the Giants tore them up. People
12:10
Speaker 1: people probably remember that it was like the second coming
12:13
Speaker 1: of the Eli. He he literally went to town on
12:16
Speaker 1: Tampa's defense. So coming in this year, they've kind of
12:19
Speaker 1: made a couple of adjustments on their defense where they
12:22
Speaker 1: seem like they've approved on that side, and obviously they
12:24
Speaker 1: got Tom Brady and Bronk on the offensive side where
12:27
Speaker 1: the public is going to hit that that that nine
12:29
Speaker 1: and a half, I think it maybe to opened that
12:31
Speaker 1: eight and a half. Nine it's gone up to nine
12:33
Speaker 1: and a half. Now, that's that kind of thing where
12:36
Speaker 1: as we're all looking at it that that's a great number.
12:38
Speaker 1: But as a sharp I have to think I'll wait
12:41
Speaker 1: for this to get to ten and then I'll just
12:43
Speaker 1: take beyonder and just I think they'll they'll not go
12:46
Speaker 1: nine and seven and that really hard division where Atlanta
12:49
Speaker 1: has only gotten better, and it's it's one of those
12:54
Speaker 1: where you really you look at it and you just
12:57
Speaker 1: think to yourself, and that division, it's really hard to
13:00
Speaker 1: get ten wins. You need a lot of things to
13:02
Speaker 1: go your way to get ten wins. So I can
13:04
Speaker 1: see where the public is taking. It's Tom Brady revenge Tour.
13:07
Speaker 1: He's the goat. We saw that golf swing. Charles Barkley
13:10
Speaker 1: is talking to ship to him. He hits the right
13:11
Speaker 1: in the hole. He's just that kind of player where
13:13
Speaker 1: he's piste off and he's mad, and that's when he's
13:16
Speaker 1: really dangerous. There's a pro I have to take that under.
13:19
Speaker 1: That's just it's just hard to think of them getting
13:21
Speaker 1: ten wins. God, you mentioned the division, which is really
13:24
Speaker 1: really important. And Sean Payton had that really funny tweet
13:28
Speaker 1: during the match about this being the Tom Brady that
13:30
Speaker 1: he hopes comes to Temp Bay. Flip side of that,
13:33
Speaker 1: flip side of that is the paths without Tom Brady
13:37
Speaker 1: we're looking at. I think we were looking at over
13:41
Speaker 1: nine minus one oh two, under nine minus one twelve.
13:45
Speaker 1: Still a ton of respect for New England at nine wins.
13:51
Speaker 1: And it's funny and so like going through everything, like
13:54
Speaker 1: I don't have a lot of numbers on Stindham, he
13:55
Speaker 1: didn't play that much. And even in college he was
13:58
Speaker 1: in all world. He was just like just a solid
14:01
Speaker 1: quarterback who had the upper body and the strength and
14:04
Speaker 1: the arm that the Patriots come front taking him where
14:07
Speaker 1: they did that. I I get why they're just holding
14:09
Speaker 1: pat here and they're just saying him or Horrior, that's
14:12
Speaker 1: good enough for us, because that's Bilichick system. He's saying,
14:15
Speaker 1: we don't need something so great to run this system.
14:19
Speaker 1: It's all about the weapons around him, the system I
14:21
Speaker 1: run week the week because he's always changing their office
14:23
Speaker 1: own system with McDaniels. So it's it is one of
14:27
Speaker 1: those where nine is a high number because when I
14:31
Speaker 1: ran it through surprising the Bills where the outs getting
14:34
Speaker 1: favored in that division, like I got them at ten
14:36
Speaker 1: and a half winds, So the Bills really stick out,
14:39
Speaker 1: is that the leader in that division where the Patriots
14:43
Speaker 1: they seem like they're gonna have it down year this
14:45
Speaker 1: year because no one's really sure what they're gonna do
14:47
Speaker 1: here at the quarterback position. Can we really trust in
14:49
Speaker 1: them to get us nine wins and stuff to say?
14:54
Speaker 1: So you don't have an opinion on this one yet.
14:57
Speaker 1: I'm waiting. I've been waiting on the stumber because I
14:59
Speaker 1: need to see this had played there, So there are
15:01
Speaker 1: some of that I don't bet right away, Like I'll
15:02
Speaker 1: wait in the preseason to see some some more on
15:04
Speaker 1: this kid, just because from what I saw last year,
15:07
Speaker 1: he was all world of preseason and then and that's
15:09
Speaker 1: when he played in the regular season. He just cann't
15:11
Speaker 1: slept their own picks. So I'm gonna wait on the
15:13
Speaker 1: Patriots one. But Eileen, yes over Oh no, you you
15:18
Speaker 1: like the You just mentioned the bills to bills are
15:21
Speaker 1: over nine minus one, so a pretty juicy price saying
15:26
Speaker 1: the over You haven't the ten and a half wins
15:29
Speaker 1: in your projections? Are you better off taking the Bills
15:33
Speaker 1: to win the division? I like that number. I mean,
15:36
Speaker 1: I know the whole Ed Oliver thing happened, and that
15:38
Speaker 1: does worry me because I loved him. He is a force,
15:41
Speaker 1: but I just loved the pieces around him. The big
15:45
Speaker 1: thing makes me nervous because like, who knows, in Week six,
15:48
Speaker 1: bigs might be throwing tangents on the sideline because Josh
15:51
Speaker 1: Allen spreading the ball around not get him to him enough.
15:54
Speaker 1: But I think it's first year. Maybe you just will
15:56
Speaker 1: ride the ship and just stay at the course for
15:58
Speaker 1: the team. And the way the system staid up there
16:00
Speaker 1: in the shows really lined up perfectly for the Bills
16:03
Speaker 1: to really capitalize in my down here from the Patriots.
16:06
Speaker 1: So the a f C East odds right now the
16:11
Speaker 1: Bills at plus one. Yeah, that's a good number. Yeah,
16:18
Speaker 1: that's a good number, you know. And it's funny. I
16:22
Speaker 1: remember Sin the last podcast. I do like the Jets,
16:24
Speaker 1: but that's they're like a year or two away. I
16:26
Speaker 1: do love what Joe Douglas is doing there. That mean,
16:28
Speaker 1: his first draft, that was a great draft. This past draft.
16:31
Speaker 1: I just don't think they're on the same level of
16:33
Speaker 1: the Patriots or the Bills yet. We're just we're just
16:37
Speaker 1: racing through these teams. I know, when you and I
16:39
Speaker 1: texted the other day about doing this, I didn't think
16:42
Speaker 1: we'd end up going through every team, but I feel
16:44
Speaker 1: like we're gonna end up going through every team. I'm
16:45
Speaker 1: making notes on every team, so um so the other team,
16:49
Speaker 1: the other team that you said, You've got a lot
16:51
Speaker 1: of questions about it. I'm bouncing around division to division.
16:53
Speaker 1: There's no rhyme or reason here. But it doesn't really matter,
16:57
Speaker 1: because if you're betting, you're not just looking for your
16:59
Speaker 1: favorite team. You look for the best value. You've been
17:01
Speaker 1: getting a lot of the question about You've been getting
17:03
Speaker 1: a lot of questions about the Bears and their QB controversy,
17:07
Speaker 1: Nick Foles or Mitch Dubinsky. Tell me what people are
17:10
Speaker 1: asking you and what you're feeling is on this team. Yeah,
17:13
Speaker 1: I was. I was joking with a couple and I
17:15
Speaker 1: was like, Wow, Chad must really have a Chicago radio
17:18
Speaker 1: shower or something, because I half these people reach it
17:20
Speaker 1: out from there just die. Our Bear fens are kind
17:21
Speaker 1: of cracking me up. But basically they're all wondering what
17:25
Speaker 1: are we better off with? Are we better off with Poles?
17:27
Speaker 1: Are we better off with Trabinsky? And I try to
17:30
Speaker 1: bring it down with that, this, this offense that your
17:33
Speaker 1: team runs is the offense we pretty much won the
17:36
Speaker 1: Super Bowl with Nick Foles, And it's your quick first
17:40
Speaker 1: read and if it's not there, he already knows the
17:43
Speaker 1: defensive from him where the second read will be the
17:46
Speaker 1: way the defense set up, so this it's a perfect
17:48
Speaker 1: scheme for Nick Poles. So my hoping is that he
17:51
Speaker 1: beats out Trabinsky in the preseason. Hopefully they have a
17:56
Speaker 1: presence so you can do it, and it lines up
17:59
Speaker 1: where the Bears over under this for the win. So
18:03
Speaker 1: those eight and a half, and I think some books
18:05
Speaker 1: are gonna have the plus money. So basically last year
18:09
Speaker 1: was the season from hell. They went eight and eight.
18:11
Speaker 1: So if Nick Foles or even Trebiscuit, even I don't
18:14
Speaker 1: love Trebisky, if I think he can run the offense,
18:16
Speaker 1: he'll be better than obviously was last year. Hopefully, Um
18:21
Speaker 1: it just lines up perfectly with everyone knows Green Bay
18:24
Speaker 1: is gonna not have a great season as they did
18:26
Speaker 1: last year. There's gonna be wins in that division for
18:28
Speaker 1: the Bears again, and they're gonna have an easier schedule.
18:31
Speaker 1: Day and a half feels a gimme where I have
18:32
Speaker 1: them great at ten wins for the season the Bears.
18:35
Speaker 1: So I really liked and a half of plus money.
18:38
Speaker 1: What do you think of the Bears a plus three
18:39
Speaker 1: ninety to win the division? I bet it already. I mean,
18:44
Speaker 1: I just I like the value there that people forget
18:48
Speaker 1: they didn't win that division because of their offense. They
18:50
Speaker 1: went and Rent wanted because of the defense. You just
18:52
Speaker 1: see a compartable quarterback in there that's not gonna be
18:54
Speaker 1: turn it over and losing games for him. And I
18:57
Speaker 1: just think that it lines up really good for the Bears.
19:00
Speaker 1: Is this upcoming season all right? This other team I
19:06
Speaker 1: find to be fascinating because they were so overhyped last year.
19:11
Speaker 1: That is the Cleveland Browns. And I'm looking at the
19:14
Speaker 1: Cleveland Browns in the Let's see a FC North. Their
19:19
Speaker 1: odds to win plus it looks like plus four eight
19:25
Speaker 1: um and there regular season win total is again look
19:32
Speaker 1: in the Action Network gap eight and a half plus one.
19:36
Speaker 1: Most people are gonna go on the idea that it
19:38
Speaker 1: obviously can't be worse than last year. They got a
19:40
Speaker 1: new head coach, the venue system they're gonna run, They
19:43
Speaker 1: actually improved a little bit on the defense side. I
19:45
Speaker 1: still I still look at their line. They just still
19:48
Speaker 1: have problems where I don't like how they have addressed
19:51
Speaker 1: their issues. I still think they have a lot of
19:52
Speaker 1: work to get done on that side. And coming in
19:56
Speaker 1: I know a lot of people are gonna think that's
19:58
Speaker 1: the Ravens division as well, as they showed them more
20:00
Speaker 1: was m VP level last year. Like we're just saying
20:04
Speaker 1: the year before, it usually ruins field mytup that coming year,
20:08
Speaker 1: there's no way Ravens are going to fourteen a two again,
20:11
Speaker 1: and there's no way I like since in a way
20:13
Speaker 1: like Cleveland. So the obviously team I really like coming
20:15
Speaker 1: this year in that division's Pittsburgh. I think that's where
20:17
Speaker 1: the value is. And day and a half number is
20:20
Speaker 1: good in the sense that, yeah, the Browns could get
20:23
Speaker 1: to nine wins, that wouldn't be shocking, but all the
20:25
Speaker 1: values on the under from what we've seen from them
20:27
Speaker 1: from all the past seasons, they're just an underachieving team
20:30
Speaker 1: and in the first year head coach, I still don't
20:33
Speaker 1: believe in that offense being able to carry that team
20:36
Speaker 1: to over nine wins. All right, Well, you talk about
20:38
Speaker 1: the Steelers, they're at over nine and a half, they're over.
20:42
Speaker 1: The price on the over night and a half is
20:44
Speaker 1: plus one and they are plus three seventy four to
20:49
Speaker 1: win the a f C North. That is some prime
20:53
Speaker 1: time pricing right there. If you want the Steelers. It's
20:57
Speaker 1: tasty and it's just one of those where Hey, I
21:00
Speaker 1: could be wrong, Lamar. No one could figure him out
21:03
Speaker 1: last year. Maybe this offseason somehow they didn't figure it
21:06
Speaker 1: out again. But we've just seen the time and time
21:08
Speaker 1: again where these He's not one trick show. Lamar did
21:11
Speaker 1: plenty of passing and different things last year than just
21:14
Speaker 1: running the ball. But they're gonna figure out a way
21:17
Speaker 1: to stop it. That's just the way it is. Who
21:19
Speaker 1: knows if it's running the same type of defense that
21:23
Speaker 1: worked last year against him, or it was just him
21:25
Speaker 1: having bad days. But there's there's just no way that
21:29
Speaker 1: you're getting any value on the Ravens this upcoming season.
21:33
Speaker 1: They were just so out of this world last year.
21:35
Speaker 1: You have to kind of take with a grain of
21:37
Speaker 1: salt ware nothing went wrong from last year. They had
21:39
Speaker 1: no major injuries. I mean, they've lost arguably one of
21:42
Speaker 1: their best offensive lignment into retirement. So I think people
21:46
Speaker 1: need to take a step back and think what's more
21:47
Speaker 1: consistent the Ravens or Pittsburgh the way they've just always
21:53
Speaker 1: had a good defense and Big Ben. If you can
21:55
Speaker 1: just give one more year, that's a good value. People
21:58
Speaker 1: are gonna be his attempt because of Big Ben, who
22:00
Speaker 1: knows his shape he's gonna be in what she's gonna
22:02
Speaker 1: look like. He's older. I get the hesitation with Pittsburgh.
22:06
Speaker 1: That's why that that number is so big. Listen, I
22:09
Speaker 1: I'm with you, though, Like, if I'm going to bet
22:11
Speaker 1: on something in that division, am I gonna bet on
22:14
Speaker 1: the consistency of of Big Ben or the lack of
22:18
Speaker 1: a surprise factor that Lamar Jackson now presents, even though
22:22
Speaker 1: he's amazing And I'm not discounting that, I'm just thinking
22:24
Speaker 1: purely in terms of dining, He's unbelievable. Yeah, I'm not
22:30
Speaker 1: saying last year was a fluke. I'm saying I have
22:33
Speaker 1: a better price with the Steelers. Steelers a plus three
22:37
Speaker 1: seventy four to win the division and plus money to
22:40
Speaker 1: go over night and a half wins with Big Ben
22:42
Speaker 1: coming back, you cannot Yeah, you can understimate. Also, how
22:48
Speaker 1: great of a coaching job Mike Tomlin did last year,
22:51
Speaker 1: and to do what he did with that team with
22:53
Speaker 1: no talent um quarterback, Imagine how good that team can
22:57
Speaker 1: be when he actually has all of his weapons back.
23:01
Speaker 1: And That's what I'm been on. I'm been on that
23:03
Speaker 1: upside with that value. Uh, speaking of teams that are
23:08
Speaker 1: lacking weapons. The Houston Texans are playing with a lot
23:12
Speaker 1: of anger. I mean that team seems to be playing
23:17
Speaker 1: a different kind of football all of a sudden because
23:20
Speaker 1: of what Bill O'Brien has decided to do with that roster,
23:23
Speaker 1: getting rid of DeAndre Hopkins for nothing, over paying for
23:26
Speaker 1: running backs. Uh, Deshaun Watson. I don't really know what
23:30
Speaker 1: his mindset is. How could I but that team right
23:33
Speaker 1: now plus three sixty to win the division regular season
23:36
Speaker 1: win totals under seven and a half a minus one
23:40
Speaker 1: twelve over is minus one of eight. And when people
23:44
Speaker 1: are looking at Houston, it's just been they've kind of
23:46
Speaker 1: been a joke of this all season, the public, the
23:48
Speaker 1: public reflecting that they're thinking this is a joke franchise.
23:51
Speaker 1: They just got really their best weapon on all offense
23:53
Speaker 1: for an old running back who hasn't done anything in
23:56
Speaker 1: kind of two years. But when you look at the numbers,
24:00
Speaker 1: scariest thing for them is that they haven't really improved
24:03
Speaker 1: on defense and positions they need. But when you look
24:06
Speaker 1: at their division, the uncertainty with the Jaguars like there
24:09
Speaker 1: are people think they're taking the year Colts with the
24:12
Speaker 1: Folk Rivers and Filip Rivers look cooked last year. I
24:15
Speaker 1: don't know, maybe a new situation, maybe that's gonna be
24:18
Speaker 1: good for Rivers, but he he look cooked. And I'll
24:20
Speaker 1: tell you everyone's gonna love them because of what they
24:22
Speaker 1: did in the playoffs. That run they went on where
24:24
Speaker 1: you're thinking it had something they're gonna build on. So
24:27
Speaker 1: if you if you like what the Titans did best
24:28
Speaker 1: year and you're thinking that's them building for even better
24:31
Speaker 1: of the following year, like variable is a good coached
24:33
Speaker 1: year and you trust that system, Tennessee is probably gonna
24:36
Speaker 1: be the favorite, and a lot of people are gonna
24:38
Speaker 1: take on that division. For this number, it's seven and
24:41
Speaker 1: a half. That feels super super low and good value.
24:44
Speaker 1: I think Houston's gonna have problems in two three years
24:46
Speaker 1: from now. I don't think they have problems right now.
24:48
Speaker 1: I still think they have enough weapons around them, enough
24:51
Speaker 1: of a good offense around them that I could see
24:53
Speaker 1: them easily get it went through Houston. What did you
24:56
Speaker 1: simulate the man? So I've changed I've had to change
25:00
Speaker 1: it twice because of little things they've done this offseason.
25:03
Speaker 1: I originally had them at nine and a half and
25:05
Speaker 1: then ow they're down to nine. So at a point
25:08
Speaker 1: a game in half higher than what the projections are
25:11
Speaker 1: looking at. Great value, Yeah, I think vegas down on them.
25:15
Speaker 1: Vegases it down on them just because they have a
25:18
Speaker 1: harder schedule. Obou sat for the following year, and most
25:21
Speaker 1: of the public they've just we're just all trashed Houston
25:24
Speaker 1: and Bill O'Brien this whole off season. Little counter argument,
25:28
Speaker 1: you're gonna fade the public on this one. Uh. This
25:33
Speaker 1: is one of the few that I really stuck out
25:35
Speaker 1: with paid in the public because the numbers just kept
25:37
Speaker 1: going down since the DeAndre Hopkins trade. I just think
25:40
Speaker 1: even maybe some sharp stuff don't like it either. But
25:43
Speaker 1: I don't think their problems are gonna happen right now.
25:45
Speaker 1: I think there are two three years down the road, alright.
25:48
Speaker 1: I want to stay in the state of Texas. Everybody
25:51
Speaker 1: loves to talk about the Dallas Cowboys. They are at
25:55
Speaker 1: nine and a half for the you know, yeah, nine
25:58
Speaker 1: and a half. We are on the Cowboys at nine
26:01
Speaker 1: and a half is minus yeah. I mean this is
26:08
Speaker 1: one of those where basically the number of guys you're
26:12
Speaker 1: looking at numbers that they just had terrible, terrible luck
26:16
Speaker 1: lash for the Cowboys. I mean the the amount of
26:19
Speaker 1: times they lost one score games and the amount of
26:21
Speaker 1: times that they just completed blue games was alarming. And
26:25
Speaker 1: it's one of those where people are thinking they have
26:27
Speaker 1: a new coach coming in. Maybe McCarthy wasn't the blame
26:30
Speaker 1: for how Badgreen Day was. Maybe there was just not
26:34
Speaker 1: It was kind of just his time to leave there
26:36
Speaker 1: with Rodgers. Maybe a new start for him is going
26:38
Speaker 1: to be what he needs. And I can see why
26:41
Speaker 1: people love it. It's it's funny in that division. Um,
26:45
Speaker 1: there's hasn't been a repeat champ in that division like
26:48
Speaker 1: twenty years. Like basically it's always flip flop and the
26:50
Speaker 1: Eagles win and the Cowboys win or Brambley the Giants
26:53
Speaker 1: will win. And it does seem like it's lining up
26:57
Speaker 1: that this Cowboys team, this is gonna be their ask
27:00
Speaker 1: really good run. They have a lot of big contracts
27:02
Speaker 1: coming up. They're not gonna be able to pay this
27:03
Speaker 1: offensive line, a lot of these guys on the defense.
27:06
Speaker 1: So I like that number, but that that big so
27:09
Speaker 1: high that I wouldn't take it the because I can
27:14
Speaker 1: see them getting nine wins, but I have them great
27:16
Speaker 1: out of ten and a half. A right, So you
27:18
Speaker 1: haven't grated out of ten and a half. The market
27:21
Speaker 1: is saying nine and a half, but it might have one.
27:23
Speaker 1: It's just too high. Yeah, And I just like there's
27:28
Speaker 1: I just don't trust what's going on deck and the
27:30
Speaker 1: whole contracting. It just gives me on the East going
27:33
Speaker 1: to season, because that's just such distraction that you don't
27:36
Speaker 1: need and it makes me a little nervous. But to
27:39
Speaker 1: the Cowboys fans out there that have been hitting this number,
27:42
Speaker 1: I do think that's that's a fair bet. I mean,
27:44
Speaker 1: I'm getting ten wins that that seems in the range
27:46
Speaker 1: of what they're gonna do this year. All Right, So
27:49
Speaker 1: we've gone through about a third of the league right now.
27:52
Speaker 1: I want to hear um your value picks. The biggest
27:57
Speaker 1: delta between what your numbers are saying right now and
28:00
Speaker 1: what the market is presenting. Well, definitely the Bears that
28:06
Speaker 1: that that I already gave up, that's definitely one of
28:08
Speaker 1: my favorite ones, Like of all the wind totals, that
28:10
Speaker 1: really stuck out where it's like, I just think that's
28:14
Speaker 1: that's really good value. Surprisingly, I actually do really like
28:18
Speaker 1: the Jacks. I got them at six wins again for
28:20
Speaker 1: this upcoming season and people are scared off because I mean,
28:23
Speaker 1: their whole teams fleeing and CORTI minshew, he looks like
28:27
Speaker 1: he's gonna collapse. So I'm gonna completely understand why people
28:31
Speaker 1: are gonna stay away from the Jacks. I'll try to
28:33
Speaker 1: find a more public team for people, but I know
28:37
Speaker 1: that a lot of people are drinking the Carolina Panthers
28:40
Speaker 1: school aid and wait, hold on, hold on, hold on,
28:43
Speaker 1: hold on. So let's let's frame the Jags for a
28:45
Speaker 1: second before you go on to into Carolina. Like, the
28:49
Speaker 1: Jags are there. The over for the Jags is uh five,
28:53
Speaker 1: It's over five plus one, so it's there's value there,
28:58
Speaker 1: and betting the over, well, you gotta shop round because
29:02
Speaker 1: I'm seeing certain books still haven't at four and a half.
29:04
Speaker 1: So basically what I'm looking at is when you're saying
29:08
Speaker 1: that number, you're saying the Jacks need just go three
29:10
Speaker 1: and three in their division, which isn't that shocking, And
29:12
Speaker 1: I'm gona go three three in their division and they
29:14
Speaker 1: just have to win two games outside their division in
29:17
Speaker 1: the whole season. And what I've always learned with these
29:20
Speaker 1: flority teams is there are certain teams that get down
29:22
Speaker 1: into that heat and that humidity, and they're good teams
29:24
Speaker 1: and they just blow games against bad flority teams. So
29:27
Speaker 1: that's what's always funny with these Miami Tampa and these uh,
29:32
Speaker 1: these Jacks and these low these low over unders. Usually
29:34
Speaker 1: they hit it. So it's one of those I'm gonna
29:38
Speaker 1: wait on the Jacks. I think the public, like you're
29:40
Speaker 1: saying you have at five, I'm seeing four and a
29:41
Speaker 1: half in some books. I'm just gonna wait and hope,
29:44
Speaker 1: I hope people just keep betting them down. I'll be
29:46
Speaker 1: able to get it at four eventually. All Right, that's
29:49
Speaker 1: a good strategy. I'm gonna wait. I'm taking a note
29:51
Speaker 1: on that. I'm gonna wait. Who's your brother? You like
29:54
Speaker 1: the Bears, you like the Jags. I really gave it
29:59
Speaker 1: out like way, like let's go the Denver super Bowl.
30:02
Speaker 1: I like the Denver over seven and a half. It's
30:04
Speaker 1: juiced up a little bit, and people are really have
30:08
Speaker 1: really been hyping them since the draft, just because all
30:10
Speaker 1: these weapons now on their offense, and I just think
30:15
Speaker 1: it's locked. Drew Lock can just be just a little
30:20
Speaker 1: bit better than what they've had in the past three
30:22
Speaker 1: or four years. That's that's the number they're gonna hit
30:25
Speaker 1: just because their defense is still really dominant. And then
30:27
Speaker 1: you've got all these weapons on the offense where teams
30:30
Speaker 1: go up to malha and they usually always win five
30:32
Speaker 1: to six home games. So you're just looking at it
30:34
Speaker 1: all right now, they got five to six home wins.
30:37
Speaker 1: You just need to find two to three more wins
30:39
Speaker 1: for them on the road, and it's pretty easy to
30:41
Speaker 1: see that. You think they can get eight to nine.
30:43
Speaker 1: So I like that value in Denver. Denver is and
30:46
Speaker 1: you also like him the Super Bowl. Denver is fifty
30:48
Speaker 1: t one to win the Super Bowl. You also had
30:50
Speaker 1: mentioned let's talk about the Cardinals for a second, Um,
30:54
Speaker 1: because earlier in the year you had mentioned the Cardinals,
30:58
Speaker 1: and that was before their draft, before lot of free agency,
31:01
Speaker 1: before we saw the schedule. Cards fifty one to win
31:04
Speaker 1: the Super Bowl. Still, how are you feeling about their
31:07
Speaker 1: season wins at so um? Like I was talking a
31:10
Speaker 1: little bit earlier, they've been bet up. So when I
31:13
Speaker 1: when I get them out, I was able to get
31:14
Speaker 1: them at six six and a half. Now they're up
31:17
Speaker 1: to seven and a half in most books, So I
31:21
Speaker 1: still think there's value there. I can still I still
31:23
Speaker 1: have them grated out at getting eight wins. But it
31:25
Speaker 1: makes me a little nervous. Now that's all way up there,
31:27
Speaker 1: because that whenever the public team becomes the public darlings,
31:30
Speaker 1: and it does make me a little a little nervous
31:33
Speaker 1: because when we were talking about that, no one was
31:34
Speaker 1: really talking about the Cardinals. So it's funny now that's
31:38
Speaker 1: kind of flipped in as people have looked into the numbers,
31:40
Speaker 1: It's like, Wow, they have a lot of weapons. And
31:42
Speaker 1: Kyler Murray really strokes, like showed in different games that
31:45
Speaker 1: this gets special. His some of his passes that I mean,
31:48
Speaker 1: he came to see over guys and he's putting it
31:50
Speaker 1: right on the din twenty yards down the line. So
31:53
Speaker 1: I really do like the everything that Arizona has building there,
31:57
Speaker 1: and I like that over seven and a half, alright, Denver,
32:01
Speaker 1: you still like the Jags, the Bears. Your Jaggs are
32:04
Speaker 1: gonna wait on cards. You kind of like although a
32:07
Speaker 1: lot of the value has been bet out of it
32:08
Speaker 1: because it opened it six who else? So it's kind
32:14
Speaker 1: of funny coming to the year that, um, most people
32:19
Speaker 1: are kind of nervous about this pild off the Eagles
32:24
Speaker 1: team and they're still over under still nine and a half,
32:28
Speaker 1: and I still think there's good value there to bet
32:30
Speaker 1: their under, Like they're they're set up where it seems
32:33
Speaker 1: like they're gonna start going through stuff. Maybe this is
32:35
Speaker 1: the last year Rob for this A lot of these players,
32:37
Speaker 1: A lot of these guys might be leaving and retiring.
32:40
Speaker 1: But I have them grated out of eight and a
32:41
Speaker 1: half wins for the season, So nine and a half.
32:44
Speaker 1: We're finding a whole game of value on that over round.
32:46
Speaker 1: I like the under for the Eagles under nine and
32:49
Speaker 1: a half is actually minus one fifteen, So you're betting
32:52
Speaker 1: with the market there, right, And I can see why
32:56
Speaker 1: because I mean, they're they're offensive abysmal um last year.
33:00
Speaker 1: But I do think they are going to be improved
33:02
Speaker 1: in the offense. I just the way that division is
33:05
Speaker 1: shaping up, Like the Giants will be better, and we
33:08
Speaker 1: all already talked about the Cowboys. I just think it's
33:11
Speaker 1: gonna be tougher for them to sneak again get nine
33:13
Speaker 1: and seven last year. I don't think they can do
33:15
Speaker 1: better than that. Alright, let's talk about the Giants for
33:18
Speaker 1: a second, because could they all of a sudden become
33:22
Speaker 1: an interesting value bet for the conference? As well. And
33:29
Speaker 1: it's funny where I I really do like a lot
33:31
Speaker 1: of my time is spent on these quarterbacks, especially if
33:33
Speaker 1: to I'm watching and just just little things. You look
33:37
Speaker 1: forward these guys to see if they got it or not.
33:39
Speaker 1: And I do love Daniel Jones a lot of the
33:41
Speaker 1: film I saw in him. He has great awareness, but
33:45
Speaker 1: he is so he was so bipolar like most quarterbacks
33:48
Speaker 1: are in the season where he had one good game,
33:50
Speaker 1: the next game he was complete disaster, couldn't stop fumbling,
33:53
Speaker 1: kept throwing picks. And if you're gonna bet their over
33:57
Speaker 1: six over six and a half, you're kind of betting
33:59
Speaker 1: on Daniel Jones saying he's gonna correct his mistakes and
34:02
Speaker 1: that's good value on that number where I have them
34:05
Speaker 1: still rated out at six, So I don't see value.
34:07
Speaker 1: I see the schema push. So I'm actually gonna probably
34:10
Speaker 1: wait and take the under if I can find six
34:12
Speaker 1: and a half. Oh man, that was that was That's
34:15
Speaker 1: so interesting because like the Giants at plus nine hundred
34:20
Speaker 1: in a division like you said that changes hands every
34:23
Speaker 1: year with Dwayne Haskins and the Redskins who was and
34:27
Speaker 1: the Eagles, who you think are destined to continue to
34:32
Speaker 1: slide and the Cowboys, who like maybe it was Jason Garrett,
34:36
Speaker 1: who knows they have a new coach, but like it's
34:38
Speaker 1: not assured. I would have totally been on that Giants
34:43
Speaker 1: at plus nine hundred. I'm so glad you just walked
34:45
Speaker 1: me off that. Yeah, I think it's I'd wait another
34:50
Speaker 1: year on that. I'd wait. I'd wait a year on
34:52
Speaker 1: the Giants just because I don't I could see it
34:55
Speaker 1: in that division. Like you're saying, there's a lot of
34:57
Speaker 1: upside there, but I just think you're a year. Who
35:04
Speaker 1: else are we missing from your biggest delta between your
35:07
Speaker 1: numbers in the market. So what you always want to
35:11
Speaker 1: do is you you want to kind of look at
35:13
Speaker 1: the previous season and say, like what unders are the
35:17
Speaker 1: most likely to happen? Because if you just bet every
35:20
Speaker 1: under of all these teams, you're gonna make money. But
35:22
Speaker 1: that's no fun. Um, you really you really want to
35:26
Speaker 1: look at teams that had over ten wins the season
35:29
Speaker 1: before because that's a key number. It's you need luck
35:33
Speaker 1: and a lot of talent to break ten wins, especially
35:36
Speaker 1: on back to back season. I mean, I'm gonna look
35:39
Speaker 1: right now, but I'm pretty sure the only team that's
35:41
Speaker 1: been back to back ten game one he is the
35:43
Speaker 1: New Orleans Saints. So that's what I mean. No other
35:45
Speaker 1: team keeps getting ten wins than the Saints every year.
35:49
Speaker 1: So when you're looking at San Frame their numbers ten
35:52
Speaker 1: to have, the value is gone there. That number, that's
35:56
Speaker 1: a high number. That's that's pretty much saying they're going
35:59
Speaker 1: to have just as good a season they did last year.
36:01
Speaker 1: I mean, you can't even think back the they stopped
36:03
Speaker 1: the guy in the one yard line to get the
36:05
Speaker 1: number one seed in the last game of the year
36:07
Speaker 1: on the final player of the year, or they were
36:09
Speaker 1: going to be the five seeds. So it's one of
36:11
Speaker 1: those where it's like people need to start thinking these
36:16
Speaker 1: things aren't teams aren't gonna be winning consistency like they
36:20
Speaker 1: think they're. It comes down to one play multiple times
36:22
Speaker 1: this season in different games. So with San France ten
36:25
Speaker 1: a half, you have to take that under. And when
36:27
Speaker 1: you're looking at um Green Bay, I think they're real
36:32
Speaker 1: quick where San Francisco Sancisco under ten and a half
36:37
Speaker 1: is minus one of five, so there's better juice on
36:40
Speaker 1: that and and Green that's that's sharp. That's like sharp
36:44
Speaker 1: money probably coming home because what Joe Public's gonna go
36:46
Speaker 1: in there, and that the under up same frame they
36:48
Speaker 1: made the Super Bowl. Well, here's what's interesting green Bay
36:52
Speaker 1: is the under nine is minus one, right, And that's
36:57
Speaker 1: just another one of those where you're saying that they're
37:01
Speaker 1: not going to be able to duplicate what they did
37:03
Speaker 1: last year, especially in that division, because like I told
37:05
Speaker 1: you already, think the Bears man be better and the
37:07
Speaker 1: Staffords me back for Detroit for the whole season. So
37:11
Speaker 1: that's actually not terrible because I actually have them at
37:13
Speaker 1: nine nine, like nine point two, so I have them
37:16
Speaker 1: slightly over that over you're not getting you're gonna push it.
37:18
Speaker 1: They hit nine. But actually, now that I'm like, now
37:23
Speaker 1: we're talking about out loud, it's like that Aaron Rodgers
37:25
Speaker 1: revenge story, like he's gonna be piste off this whole season,
37:28
Speaker 1: and at nine, that nine is not a bad that's
37:30
Speaker 1: a good number for green Back. So I actually would
37:32
Speaker 1: take that over. You would, yeah, because when I saw
37:36
Speaker 1: it earlier, they were at ten, and now that I'm like,
37:38
Speaker 1: when we're going at the book again, it's it's down
37:40
Speaker 1: to nine. So I think that's there's value there on
37:43
Speaker 1: the nine over nine minus one, so it's certainly better juice. Right, Yeah,
37:50
Speaker 1: that's that's good. That's crazy. The sharps've been found and
37:52
Speaker 1: them like the Well, look, I think it's one of
37:54
Speaker 1: those things that everyone believes what you do. Like Aaron
37:57
Speaker 1: Rodgers for the past five years, and Chris Raybond from
37:59
Speaker 1: the Actually Nework has written about this so many times,
38:02
Speaker 1: is a deteriorating quarterback. His numbers are not nearly as
38:05
Speaker 1: good as they were in the previous five years, and
38:08
Speaker 1: he's still getting the shine for being Aaron Rodgers, which
38:11
Speaker 1: is amazing, and then even more shine for taking that
38:14
Speaker 1: team that wasn't very good to a thirteen and three
38:16
Speaker 1: year unto the NFC title game. But like this team
38:21
Speaker 1: did not get better during the year, and uh, he
38:24
Speaker 1: continues to get credit for being Aaron Rodgers when he
38:27
Speaker 1: really isn't Aaron Rodgers anymore. That's why I don't worry
38:31
Speaker 1: about Aaron Rodgers as a as a as a guy
38:35
Speaker 1: with a chip on his shoulder, because that can last
38:38
Speaker 1: you only so long, and it helps when you're already
38:41
Speaker 1: the most supremely talented quarterback in the game. It's not
38:44
Speaker 1: as good when you have a chip on your shoulder
38:46
Speaker 1: and you're no longer the most supremely talented quarterback in
38:49
Speaker 1: the game, right, And I think that people need to
38:52
Speaker 1: just that we're thinking about him. But I still think
38:54
Speaker 1: that he's lost athleticism which we made him so great.
38:57
Speaker 1: Like we're seeing in Touch my Homes he can just
38:59
Speaker 1: move in the pocket and just had to flick at
39:01
Speaker 1: his wrists put it fifty yards down the field. Rodgers
39:04
Speaker 1: definitely lost that, but I think meant the mentally, he's
39:09
Speaker 1: just gonna be on point and it's gonna be a
39:10
Speaker 1: second year in this offense where it's a heavy based
39:13
Speaker 1: running offense where a lot of his plays or play
39:15
Speaker 1: action leads, which is just a layup for a guy
39:18
Speaker 1: like Aaron Rodgers. He's still a top twelve, top ten
39:21
Speaker 1: quarterback in this league. Um I do. I do love
39:25
Speaker 1: reading Chris is right. He's he's good. He's got a
39:27
Speaker 1: lot of articles. But when I read about that was interesting.
39:29
Speaker 1: Just every every year he's just his velocity is growing.
39:33
Speaker 1: Everything's just gone down. So the numbers you backed it up,
39:36
Speaker 1: I'm gonna I'm gonna back him for one more year,
39:39
Speaker 1: all right. I think there's a couple of other hot
39:41
Speaker 1: button teams that we do have to hit on uh,
39:43
Speaker 1: and then I do want to get any updated conference
39:47
Speaker 1: futures or Super Bowl futures that you think still might
39:50
Speaker 1: have some value. But some of the hot button teams, UH,
39:54
Speaker 1: Miami over six and a half plus one oh seven,
40:00
Speaker 1: and I'm gonna be on that under just because I
40:04
Speaker 1: don't think I think they are gonna have to Uh.
40:07
Speaker 1: I think two is gonna be playing early days and
40:11
Speaker 1: what we saw last year it was obviously great coaching,
40:14
Speaker 1: but it was a lot of fits. I mean that
40:16
Speaker 1: in that game against the Patriots end the season, that
40:18
Speaker 1: was one of more incredible comebacks. And that's just what
40:21
Speaker 1: that guy does. He's a never die kind of guy.
40:24
Speaker 1: She was gonna be a rookie, he's coming from Alabama,
40:27
Speaker 1: he's coming off a major injury. That's that's all those
40:29
Speaker 1: signs point to for sure, it was a good A
40:33
Speaker 1: good season for them would be four to five wins.
40:36
Speaker 1: So that's that's a big under. Um from the six
40:41
Speaker 1: mm hmm, I agree with you about two. That's when
40:44
Speaker 1: I really started, I mean about fits. That's when I
40:47
Speaker 1: really started to bet them last year was seeing Fitzpatrick
40:50
Speaker 1: become the quarterback. He is a little bit magical. I
40:53
Speaker 1: think it's gonna be hard for them to come in
40:55
Speaker 1: and play to uh, given the sort of injury that
40:59
Speaker 1: he has to come back from and the learning curve, Like,
41:03
Speaker 1: why wouldn't you play Ryan Fitzpatrick as long as you
41:05
Speaker 1: possibly can? I think I disagree with your premise that
41:08
Speaker 1: um that he's going to be the one who comes
41:10
Speaker 1: into place. I answers with you. I thought, because of
41:15
Speaker 1: the injury, they're gonna take it slow. But the more
41:18
Speaker 1: stuff I hear, especially at a guys in base and
41:20
Speaker 1: people they're they're hearing from, it just it seems like
41:24
Speaker 1: to them that two isn't the guy that's gonna come
41:26
Speaker 1: in in week three or four and that's that's gonna
41:28
Speaker 1: be the show for the rest of the season. All right.
41:31
Speaker 1: Before I get to this last team, are we missing
41:33
Speaker 1: any value picks for you? Where the delta between your
41:38
Speaker 1: simulations and the current season win totals is very aggressive? Uh.
41:45
Speaker 1: The one that really stands out, and maybe it's a
41:48
Speaker 1: little bit of my biggest love, but the Raiders coming
41:52
Speaker 1: into that new stadium and it seems like they're gonna
41:54
Speaker 1: be one of the few places that will definitely have fans.
41:57
Speaker 1: It's gonna be crazy. I mean that that is want
42:00
Speaker 1: to be a big advantage for the Raiders in this
42:02
Speaker 1: first season. And I like what they've done in this draft,
42:06
Speaker 1: and it's kind of a make or break year for
42:08
Speaker 1: Derek Carr. So they got it at seven and a half.
42:11
Speaker 1: I had them graded out at eight point four, so
42:14
Speaker 1: I had them over that I have I have. I've
42:16
Speaker 1: definitely seen them getting especially in the division where I
42:20
Speaker 1: know everyone's gonna be scared of the Chiefs and I'm
42:23
Speaker 1: I'm obviously always worried about them because they're so dominant,
42:26
Speaker 1: but you have to look at we still don't know
42:29
Speaker 1: about Locked. I mean, there's good value in Denver, we
42:31
Speaker 1: don't know about him, and we don't know at all
42:33
Speaker 1: what the charges are gonna be like, They're gonna be
42:34
Speaker 1: probably terrible. So right there, if you're spotting Openen going
42:39
Speaker 1: three and three or four and two in that division,
42:41
Speaker 1: it's it's pretty conceivable to see them win a couple
42:44
Speaker 1: more home games that steal eight wins in the season.
42:47
Speaker 1: So I really like the value on the Raiders. Raiders
42:50
Speaker 1: are at over seven and a half minus one o two,
42:52
Speaker 1: so decent money on them as well. Let's talk the
42:57
Speaker 1: last last one I'll give out just for Darren. I
43:00
Speaker 1: do like the Jets over seven. I have them braided
43:02
Speaker 1: out at seven and a half wins for this season,
43:06
Speaker 1: So at worst case, I see you getting a push
43:08
Speaker 1: with the Jets. So I like the value of the
43:10
Speaker 1: over the Jets over seven over seven for Darren Revel.
43:15
Speaker 1: You love it for Darren Revel getting some love for
43:18
Speaker 1: the Jets. We've talked about Arizona at fifty two one
43:21
Speaker 1: to win the Super Bowl. We talked about Denver fifty
43:23
Speaker 1: two one to win the Super Bowl. Right now, looking
43:27
Speaker 1: at some of these numbers, post free agency, post draft,
43:30
Speaker 1: post schedule release, um, is anybody sticking out? So vice
43:38
Speaker 1: I always give for these futures is you don't want
43:41
Speaker 1: to be betting the very top ones, like and we
43:44
Speaker 1: talked about last year. I waited on the Chiefs and
43:46
Speaker 1: I got lucky where my homes got hurt and I
43:47
Speaker 1: was getting tender ones fifteen ones on them to win
43:51
Speaker 1: the Super Bowl instead of putting them in the premium.
43:54
Speaker 1: Now coming to the season, they were plus like four
43:56
Speaker 1: hundred plus five hundred in most books for them to
43:58
Speaker 1: win the Super Bowl. So those top ones, you, of course,
44:02
Speaker 1: who's gonna bet against the Chiefs on the Super Bowl.
44:04
Speaker 1: I could see that repeating. They literally only got better
44:07
Speaker 1: in this offseason. But when you're betting is you're looking
44:11
Speaker 1: for value. And that's why when I gave out Arizona
44:13
Speaker 1: and the Bronx, is that that that was pure value upside.
44:16
Speaker 1: You're looking for something big you can hedge when it
44:18
Speaker 1: comes down to it. So we already talked about, but
44:20
Speaker 1: I like the Bears. At some books you can get
44:23
Speaker 1: plus four thousand. I like that number for the Bears.
44:28
Speaker 1: Now you're just breaking really hard. It's just one of
44:31
Speaker 1: those things where it's good value. Like I could see
44:33
Speaker 1: things breaking right where they have the offensive weapons, if
44:36
Speaker 1: they can get Nick or Trabisky, just to figure it
44:38
Speaker 1: out in that offense with that defense, that's that's really
44:41
Speaker 1: good value for that team. And then the next one.
44:45
Speaker 1: It's kind of funny like thinking about all the things
44:48
Speaker 1: that have to go right for it to happen. But
44:51
Speaker 1: I do love UM Minnesota plus four thousand somehow. Getting
44:57
Speaker 1: back to the I just think that the way like
45:00
Speaker 1: in that division, I just like all those teams the
45:02
Speaker 1: way they shape out, that the road to the super
45:04
Speaker 1: Bowl for them is gonna be easier than a lot
45:06
Speaker 1: of these other teams. I'm so glad you mentioned the Vikings.
45:09
Speaker 1: I love the Vikings. Love the Vikings. I think their
45:12
Speaker 1: defense is amazing. I'm not as much of a hater
45:15
Speaker 1: of Kirk Cousins as most people are. I like their coach,
45:18
Speaker 1: my Eximmer a lot. Like they just me seem like
45:21
Speaker 1: a team that is set up and gets completely gets
45:25
Speaker 1: forgotten about, and it's it's one of those where you
45:28
Speaker 1: actually look at numbers. Their defense is their age and
45:30
Speaker 1: there there's all a couple of guys on there. They've
45:32
Speaker 1: lost that. It does hurt them a little bit. I
45:34
Speaker 1: think the Digs move was big for them. It's kind
45:36
Speaker 1: of like I knew a refresher on that all sense
45:39
Speaker 1: where Kirk's not gonna have that pressure. He can either
45:41
Speaker 1: go to funeral Karokee. They drafted and a lot of
45:45
Speaker 1: people think Cook is the top three running back in
45:47
Speaker 1: the league. So it's set up with them that that
45:50
Speaker 1: that's a nice, nice value on the Minnesota Vikings. Salmon
45:55
Speaker 1: Hunter Professional better based in New Jersey. Friend of the podcast,
45:59
Speaker 1: you'll be with us to in the season. I'm assuming,
46:01
Speaker 1: I'm I'm you know, consigning you that, uh you know
46:06
Speaker 1: this was a great r This was like hardcore, great rundown,
46:10
Speaker 1: good value, good information, plenty of stuff you can get
46:13
Speaker 1: out there, ways to put little money down, rep high
46:16
Speaker 1: rewards on big opportunities. Thank you for coming on the
46:20
Speaker 1: favorite podcast. I'm a hunter, all right, buddy, be good
46:23
Speaker 1: man and then I'll talk to you later. This has
46:26
Speaker 1: been the favorite podcast from the Action Network. Download from Apple,
46:30
Speaker 1: from Spotify, wherever you get your podcast. Rate review, subscribe, unsubscribe,
46:34
Speaker 1: re subscribe until next time. Love you yeah,