Latest / Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar / 10/12/26: Houthis Strike Saudi Airport, Trump Invents Fake Ukraine Ceasefire, Trump Ridicules His Own Supporters

Transcript

10/12/26: Houthis Strike Saudi Airport, Trump Invents Fake Ukraine Ceasefire, Trump Ridicules His Own Supporters · Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar

• 0:06
  Speaker 1: Good morning, everybody. Happy Monday. We have an amazing show
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: for everybody today. What do we have, Crystal?
• 0:10
  Speaker 2: Indeed we do.
• 0:11
  Speaker 3: A lot's going on in the world. So the Houthis
• 0:14
  Speaker 3: continue to strike the main airport in Saudi Arabia, causing
• 0:18
  Speaker 3: all sorts of death and destruction problems for that country.
• 0:21
  Speaker 3: Trump is now considering joining that war as well. So
• 0:24
  Speaker 3: we'll bring you all of that He's also announcing a
• 0:27
  Speaker 3: deal to buy diesel from Russia and lying apparently about
• 0:31
  Speaker 3: an energy ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia. It was debate
• 0:34
  Speaker 3: night down in South Carolina's unexpectedly competitive race. We'll take
• 0:38
  Speaker 3: a look at what happened there and also a bunch
• 0:41
  Speaker 3: of new polls and some new comments from Trump saying
• 0:43
  Speaker 3: basically he could say any dumb crap he wants to
• 0:45
  Speaker 3: and his supporters would still cheer him. Sort of the
• 0:47
  Speaker 3: latest iteration of the I could shoot someone on Fifth
• 0:50
  Speaker 3: Avenue and would maintain my support. We've got new warnings
• 0:53
  Speaker 3: coming out from the financial sector about the potential collapse
• 0:57
  Speaker 3: of the AI bubble.
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: And we have an.
• 0:59
  Speaker 3: Author on today who wrote a fantastic book about the
• 1:03
  Speaker 3: Weimar period in Germany. We're going to be asking him
• 1:05
  Speaker 3: if he sees any parallels with America of today and
• 1:08
  Speaker 3: digging into some of the relevant history there. So looking
• 1:11
  Speaker 3: forward to that one as well.
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: I'm really excited to talk to Victor. We both read
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: his biography of Lenin. He is, in my opinion, one
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: of the best historians who is writing history. popular nonfiction today.
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: It's really hard to do. You drive through the historical record,
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: you compile it, you make it readable. One of the
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: hardest tasks for a modern historian. He's already done it
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: once and now he did it twice, which is genuinely
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: so difficult across disciplines. Thank you to everybody who is
• 1:35
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• 1:39
  Speaker 1: pitch for you. And here it is. If 1,000 people
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  Speaker 1: sign up by election day, all right, And as of
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: election day, let's say the end of election.
• 1:49
  Speaker 4: Day, okay?
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: We're going to very clearly define the terms. 1,000 people
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: sign up. Not only will Ryan Grimm be going to
• 1:56
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• 1:59
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• 2:03
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• 2:10
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• 2:13
  Speaker 1: Ryan has agreed to this. We've already spoken with him.
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: about it, but a thousand people have to sign up.
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: So again, to clearly reiterate, Ryan gets to go to
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: the fish show at Madison square garden, which is apparently
• 2:22
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• 2:24
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• 2:27
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• 2:36
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• 2:38
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• 2:40
  Speaker 1: didn't actually say I said it. But I agreed with
• 2:43
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• 2:46
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• 2:47
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• 2:50
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• 2:55
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• 2:58
  Speaker 1: Apparently we have a lot of fish heads that are
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: in our audience. So let's see. Let's see if this
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: can all work out. A thousand people, breakingpoints.com. We will
• 3:05
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• 3:11
  Speaker 1: If you want to, you can go for Ryan. Oh yeah. It's, it's,
• 3:15
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• 3:17
  Speaker 3: So it's like, well, that's true too. I mean, yeah,
• 3:19
  Speaker 3: that is true, but I love the part where we
• 3:21
  Speaker 3: cleared it with Ryan.
• 3:22
  Speaker 5: Yeah.
• 3:22
  Speaker 3: We really had to twist Ryan's arm to be like, Hey,
• 3:25
  Speaker 3: you want to go to the fish show of Madison
• 3:27
  Speaker 3: square garden, uh, on us? No problem. I mean, so yeah,
• 3:31
  Speaker 3: we talked him into it. It took a lot of coercion,
• 3:33
  Speaker 3: but he has agreed to attend the fish show at
• 3:35
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• 3:39
  Speaker 3: up and their friend.
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: You and I are always joking. You're like, you actually
• 3:42
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• 3:44
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• 3:47
  Speaker 1: So there you go. And again, I will be paying
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  Speaker 1: to our YouTube channel. If you're listening to the podcast,
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: please share an episode with a friend. But as Crystal said,
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: we have some genuinely shocking news that's been happening over
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: the last 48 hours. We could start with some of
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: this video. It appears that the King Khalid Airport in
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: Saudi Arabia is has now been completely shut down after
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: shocking missile attacks that have hit the main terminal, killing
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: now 14 people that have been confirmed and injuring over 300.
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: So you can see, I mean, everyday type of scenes
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: in a normal Middle Eastern airport, people queuing up for
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: a line, immediately blowing, you know, there's fire, there's smoke,
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: they're everywhere, direct hit appears potentially on an aircraft, absolutely,
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: you know, oil depots, that are there on fire. I mean,
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: I don't think it is an exaggeration to say these
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: are some of the most shocking scenes that have actually
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: come out of the Iran war so far, because this
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: is the most crippling damage that any airport has actually
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: taken throughout, despite the Iranians initially attacking Dubai International Airport,
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: Bahrain Airport, and others. Nobody has ever scored this amount
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: of direct hits. It has completely shut down the airport,
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: airlines canceling their flights, travel advisories going out across the world.
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: Let's go ahead and actually put A2 up here on
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: the screen, which details the damage itself. They say Saudi
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: Arabia says, again, this is an older report, 12 killed,
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: 300 wounded in the Houthi attack on Riyadh. Operations have
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: been suspended as the authorities say that the victims include
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: four Saudis and actually eight foreigners as well, including a U.S. citizen.
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: This has prompted embassies around the world, to warn their
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: citizens not to go to Saudi Arabia or to be
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: cautious when they're inside of Saudi Arabia. Obviously, it is
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: a massive blow to the prestige of the Saudi kingdom,
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: which long held itself up along with Dubai as a
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: major international center for commerce. The Houthi attack here is
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: going to cost the kingdom literally tens of billions of
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: dollars just in terms of immediate commerce. But more importantly,
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: you can actually see the prestige and the spiral that
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: has happened because several things have now been revealed here, Crystal.
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: Number one, Riyadh is no longer safe, right? Is that
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: the Houthis have the ability to strike Riyadh, some of
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: their most important targets if they want to. Number two is, remember,
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: Saudi Arabia's air defense systems are entirely supplied by the
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: United States. So this is actually a big blow to U.S.
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: defense systems or even worse potentially for Saudi Arabia. They're
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: in full-blown rationing mode and they have to decide whether
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: what to shoot down and what not to. And in
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: this case, if you knew something's heading for your airport
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: and you choose not to shoot it down, that means
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: that you're in very, very dire straits. And then three,
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: do not forget that the United States is deeply enmeshed
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: in this conflict. 200 Americans, military and intelligence analysts, are
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: on the ground actually assisting the Saudis in their campaign,
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: both to defend themselves and to help strike Houthi targets
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: inside of Yemen. And so to take this prestige, this blow,
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: to the image of Saudi Arabia, to the United States,
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: to its defense equipment, and to see scenes like this,
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: I mean, it's genuinely shocking. And it's also, in my opinion,
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: kind of criminal on the Saudi authorities' behalf because this
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: airport should have been shut down just a long, long
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: time ago. And many of these deaths never should have
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: happened in the first place. People should not be flying
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: out of this airport. Period. End of story until there's
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: some sort of a ceasefire.
• 7:19
  Speaker 3: Yeah, well, and that exposes how damaging this whole situation
• 7:23
  Speaker 3: is to the ruling leadership in Saudi Arabia, because it
• 7:28
  Speaker 3: really strikes at.
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: Their social contract.
• 7:29
  Speaker 3: The fact that they kept this airport open so long
• 7:32
  Speaker 3: shows you how important and significant this is to the
• 7:35
  Speaker 3: entire social contract that they're operating on in Saudi Arabia,
• 7:39
  Speaker 3: where it's basically like, you know, you, if you're a
• 7:41
  Speaker 3: citizen there, you have to live under this like repressive
• 7:44
  Speaker 3: authoritarian regime, but you don't have any democracy, but you're
• 7:49
  Speaker 3: going to be well off, you're going to feel safe
• 7:50
  Speaker 3: and secure and like you're in this little oasis apart
• 7:53
  Speaker 3: from any other turmoil in the region. That is completely destroyed.
• 7:56
  Speaker 3: And now you have, let's put actually a five up
• 7:59
  Speaker 3: on the screen because this speaks to the destruction of
• 8:02
  Speaker 3: the Saudi image and how damaging this is going to be.
• 8:06
  Speaker 3: So you had a number of oil chiefs who are
• 8:08
  Speaker 3: pulling out of this Riyadh Energy Congress. BP and others
• 8:12
  Speaker 3: are skipping the World Petroleum Council. After you had 12
• 8:16
  Speaker 3: killed in the Houthi attack, by the way, one of
• 8:17
  Speaker 3: those who was killed was an American national as well.
• 8:20
  Speaker 3: So all of these CEOs were meant to be flying
• 8:23
  Speaker 3: into Riyadh for, you know, staying at the Ritz Carlton
• 8:28
  Speaker 3: Hotel for this big conference. And now they're all pulling
• 8:32
  Speaker 3: out and the airport is completely closed. We can put
• 8:35
  Speaker 3: the A5B or A5 up on the screen about how
• 8:39
  Speaker 3: few options the Saudis have here and what a bind
• 8:42
  Speaker 3: they're in. Ultimately, they're caught in an escalation trap. We
• 8:45
  Speaker 3: talked to Robert Pape about it on Friday. And same as,
• 8:48
  Speaker 3: you know, Trump is in this complete quandary that he
• 8:51
  Speaker 3: himself made the Saudis have created. a similarly disastrous situation
• 8:55
  Speaker 3: for themselves. Because you'll recall, there was actually a ceasefire
• 8:58
  Speaker 3: between Saudi Arabia and the prior Yemeni government and the Houthis.
• 9:05
  Speaker 3: And this was breached when there was an attack on
• 9:08
  Speaker 3: the airport, main airport in Yemen. And the Houthis blamed
• 9:11
  Speaker 3: Saudi Arabia, I think, with some justification for that attack.
• 9:14
  Speaker 3: And that's how we end up in this situation. Now,
• 9:17
  Speaker 3: what do you do? You can't walk away if you're Saudi.
• 9:19
  Speaker 3: That would be completely humiliating. You know, this ragtag... group
• 9:23
  Speaker 3: in Yemen, the poorest country in the region. But at
• 9:26
  Speaker 3: the same time, so that would be completely humiliating. At
• 9:29
  Speaker 3: the same time, you seem incapable of actually defeating them. So,
• 9:32
  Speaker 3: you know, again, it's really echoes the quandary that Trump
• 9:37
  Speaker 3: has dragged the U.S. into here as well, where there
• 9:40
  Speaker 3: are no good answers, no good solutions here. And the
• 9:42
  Speaker 3: Houthis in some ways being a lot more bold than
• 9:44
  Speaker 3: the Iranians have been, you know, willing to exact this
• 9:47
  Speaker 3: very high cost Saudi Arabia in order to accomplish their
• 9:52
  Speaker 3: war aims.
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: Absolutely. You know, Trita Parsi is making some excellent points
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: this morning. He's doing some interviews in foreign media and
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: he says, you know, one of the problems with Saudi
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: Arabia is now they have horrific options on the table.
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: The main goal of MBS is to get the United
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: States military to come in and basically finish the job
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: for him. Now, obviously, that's very flawed because we've tried
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: that twice and we failed both times. And it's Trump
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: himself that had to waive the white flag of surrender,
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: and ultimately do a ceasefire with the Houthis. The main
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: reason that we're not involved in this conflict is because
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: we do not want a two-front war, basically, both in
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: the Strait of Hormuz and in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait. Well,
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: as Trita points out, Trump is unlikely to offer any
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: assistance to Saudi Arabia as long as Riyadh will not
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: allow its airspace to be used by the United States
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: for attacks on Iran.
• 10:41
  Speaker 2: Why?
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: Because at that same time, Iran would then strike Saudi Arabia.
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: So Saudi Arabia is struck in a double vice. It
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: cannot allow the United States on its territory without the
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: Iranians also attacking as well as the Houthis attacking them.
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: But they also want and desperately need the United States
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: to come and enter the conflict directly on their behalf.
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: Trump was even asked about it and he kind of
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: brushed it apart. in my opinion. Let's go ahead and
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: take a listen to Trump's reaction at the White House
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: when he was asked immediately after the airport attack. Let's
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: take a listen.
• 11:13
  Speaker 5: You could see he's saying, you.
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: Know, oh, we just found out about it.
• 11:15
  Speaker 5: We'll move very quickly. A lot of bravado. There's been
• 11:17
  Speaker 5: really no action here. And it just shows the desperation.
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: Of You know, guys, I had immediately skipped over this,
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: but let's put a to the V.O. just to show
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: people what's happening at the same time in the Strait
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: of Hormuz, because this ties directly in is that the Iranians, meanwhile,
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: are continuing to pummel the Strait of Hormuz with direct
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: hits on the engine rooms to shut down, to disable.
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: any ships that are trying to run their own blockade
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: of the Strait of Hormuz. Now, why does this matter?
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: Because you will recall that previously, the United States had
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: a policy of tanker for tanker, that for every tanker
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: that Iran disabled, that the United States would take out
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: one of Iran's tankers. Clearly, Iran simply did not care
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: about that. The United States has not struck a single
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: one of those tankers in the last 13 days, despite
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: some 16, 17 ships now that have been disabled and
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: that have been directly hit by the IRGC. And so
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: Trump is really running scared ahead of the diesel and
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: the oil markets, as we'll talk about a little bit
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: with Russia. But just to give people an idea, Brent
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: crude futures as of this morning are sitting around $ 106
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: per barrel, all as a result of this Houthi shutdown,
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: or these Houthi attacks, and of course, Iranian pressure in
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: the Strait of Hormuz. At the same time, some news
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: continues to come out from this world Petroleum Council. Nobody's
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: there except for the Saudis, but it's the Saudis themselves
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: that are making the news. A4B guys, please, just so
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: I can show people these latest comments. So what you
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: can see here is a summary of the Aramco CEO,
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: the Saudi state-backed oil company, who is sounding the alarm.
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: And what he says is that, quote, globally, the squeeze
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: on crude oil is serious. He says that what's making
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: the challenge even worse in the refined fuel prices is
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: Commercial onshore inventories are now, quote, well below 6 billion barrels,
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: and they are the last available buffer. So you will remember,
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: we talked a lot about this at the time, is
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: that when you shut down a refinery, or sorry, you
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: don't ever want to shut down your refineries, or even
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: really shut down production. So you need a lot of storage.
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: Oil storage is what gives flexibility, price stability to the market.
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: And what they're saying is that the commercial onshore inventory
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: globally of some 6 billion barrels is just simply not enough.
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: And this is according to the CEO of Aramco. He
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: says that the vast majority of these barrels are locked
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: up and that until Hormuz fully reopens and confidence returns,
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: the pressure across the energy chain will only intensify. And
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: then finally, his most stark warning is that refilling inventories
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: while meeting demand could take up to two years. What
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: I think is important about his comments is that you
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: can start to read between the lines from Aramco and
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: from everybody else in terms of the panic. Now, I
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: will say one of the comments he said today is
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: like Saudi Arabia doesn't have the word fear in its dictionary,
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: which I checked. It does exist in Arabic, so I'm
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: pretty sure it does. But the real thing is, is
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: that behind the scenes, we only know a limited amount
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: of information that is coming out of Saudi Arabia. We
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: didn't pull this element, Crystal, but I flagged it to
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: you yesterday in our editorial call. The Indian embassy actually
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: put out an interesting warning to Indian citizens. It did
• 14:45
  Speaker 1: one of those classic, you know, Indians are advised in
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: Saudi Arabia to be watchful and of civil aviation guidelines
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: and to take cover. But it also said Indians are
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: advised to not circulate videos and photos of what they see.
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: And if you've never been to the Gulf, you would
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: know that South Asians, like Indians and Pakistanis, who are
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: basically like slave labor over there, are the people who
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: are staffing these airports, these oil facilities. And many of
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: them had whipped out their phones, let's say in the
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: early days of the war, and they've recorded it like,
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: oh my God, not to try and help Iran or anything,
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: but just to show people what's happening. The Indian government
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: now basically telling them, do not do that, because if
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: you do, you're gonna get arrested, you're gonna be in
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: violation of these guidelines. And there's been multiple reports from
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: Houthis and elsewhere saying, that the damage that we see
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: at the international airport, that's only coming out because that's
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: what's leaked. There has, according to them, been a lot
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: of damage inflicted on the Saudi oil infrastructure itself. So
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: just I want to put that out there and remind everybody,
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: we really don't know what's going on inside of Saudi
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: Arabia because of the total information lockdown that's happening in
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: the country right now.
• 15:51
  Speaker 3: Yeah, it's an authoritarian country and they are bound and
• 15:54
  Speaker 3: determined to keep as little information from coming out as possible.
• 15:58
  Speaker 3: Put the last element up on the screen because it
• 16:00
  Speaker 3: speaks to this as well. This is the claim from
• 16:03
  Speaker 3: Ansar Allah or the Houthis of what they have struck
• 16:06
  Speaker 3: just over the past two days. So the airport again today,
• 16:11
  Speaker 3: that's the King Khalid Airport, the main one in Riyadh.
• 16:14
  Speaker 3: A Shigadam gas facility, Aramco's Tanajib oil refinery, King Fahd
• 16:20
  Speaker 3: Airport in Dammam. This analyst says it's very clear at
• 16:24
  Speaker 3: this point Saudi Arabia is not safe and Ansar Allah
• 16:26
  Speaker 3: is striking both airports and energy infrastructure at will. As
• 16:29
  Speaker 3: I told the Washington Post yesterday, the Houthis can and
• 16:32
  Speaker 3: are striking deeply into Saudi and hitting critical energy infrastructure.
• 16:36
  Speaker 3: And the Houthis have less valuable infrastructure, so they are
• 16:38
  Speaker 3: going to continue to wreak havoc on the market. Beyond this,
• 16:42
  Speaker 3: I also spoke to Politico on Friday to highlight how
• 16:44
  Speaker 3: obviously defense lifts Saudi is. It's a remarkably dangerous gamble
• 16:49
  Speaker 3: on the Saudis' part. Saudi Arabia has demonstrated remarkably little
• 16:52
  Speaker 3: ability to prevent the Houthis from striking critical energy infrastructure
• 16:56
  Speaker 3: across the kingdom. And obviously the Saudis' entire security architecture
• 17:01
  Speaker 3: is based on us coming to their defenses. And when
• 17:04
  Speaker 3: this all kicked up with the Houthis again several weeks
• 17:08
  Speaker 3: ago and they came to Trump and said, hey, can
• 17:09
  Speaker 3: you help us out? Trump said, absolutely not. Now he's
• 17:12
  Speaker 3: floating the idea maybe he will. But I think it's
• 17:14
  Speaker 3: unlikely because he's already got enough trouble on his hands
• 17:17
  Speaker 3: just dealing with the Strait of Hormuz and what he's–
• 17:22
  Speaker 3: the mess he's created with Iran. So this is really–
• 17:27
  Speaker 3: It's undermining the entire security architecture of the region. It's
• 17:31
  Speaker 3: undermining MBS and the existing Saudi regime. It's broadened now
• 17:37
  Speaker 3: the Iran war fully into a regional war, even though
• 17:40
  Speaker 3: obviously the Saudi Yemen conflict had predated the Iran war.
• 17:44
  Speaker 3: These two things are now inextricably merged together. And as
• 17:48
  Speaker 3: we sit here wondering whether there is going to be
• 17:51
  Speaker 3: a spin up in the Iran war portion of this
• 17:53
  Speaker 3: before the midterms, It's worth remembering that last time we
• 17:57
  Speaker 3: were watching the war unfold, we were saying, oh, when
• 18:02
  Speaker 3: are the Houthis going to enter the fray? What would
• 18:04
  Speaker 3: that do? Well, now you have the Houthis fully engaged.
• 18:07
  Speaker 3: So if we return to a full-on war with Iran,
• 18:10
  Speaker 3: it's going to be in certain ways on a larger
• 18:12
  Speaker 3: scale than it was previously. And that'll have significant implications
• 18:17
  Speaker 3: in terms of death and destruction and certainly in terms
• 18:20
  Speaker 3: of the global economy as well.
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: Absolutely. You know what's fascinating, too, is you just spoke
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: about how the Houthis are actually being more aggressive than
• 18:29
  Speaker 1: the Iranians are. Per Trita Parsi this morning, there actually
• 18:32
  Speaker 1: is some incentive for the Iranians to try to tamp
• 18:35
  Speaker 1: things down. That's part of what's frustrating things here in
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: the West is everyone's like, oh, the Houthis act directly
• 18:40
  Speaker 1: on command from Tehran. No, they don't. OK, they're allies,
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: but they have their own distinct interests.
• 18:46
  Speaker 2: Right.
• 18:47
  Speaker 1: And so in this conflict, guys, there's a final element
• 18:49
  Speaker 1: that I want up here on the screen, literally just breaking.
• 18:52
  Speaker 1: is that Iran is now offering to actually mediate between
• 18:55
  Speaker 1: Houthis and Saudi Arabia. Apparently, the Saudi foreign minister called
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: the foreign minister of Iran yesterday and was like, hey,
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: I need you to get a handle on this. I
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: need you to come in and tell these guys to
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: cut it out. And Iran is now directly offering to mediate.
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: So apparently part of the reason why, per Trita Parsi,
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: is basically that it doesn't want the current escalation to
• 19:16
  Speaker 1: get out of control in the region because they have
• 19:19
  Speaker 1: a regional ceasefire going on with Dubai and with Saudi Arabia,
• 19:24
  Speaker 1: or with the UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia. Basically,
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: you don't strike us, we don't strike you, as long
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: as the United States doesn't continue to pummel our territory.
• 19:34
  Speaker 1: The Iranians like that arrangement because that means they only
• 19:36
  Speaker 1: have to keep their military firepower trained on the Strait
• 19:39
  Speaker 1: of Hormuz. So the Houthis are actually dragging them into
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: uncomfortable territory. So it demonstrates that this is completely out
• 19:47
  Speaker 1: of control of every one act. The Houthis are acting
• 19:51
  Speaker 1: in their direct interest. They want their territory and they
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: don't want to be bombed. Tehran does not control them,
• 19:56
  Speaker 1: despite whatever fantasies the United States or Saudi Arabia or
• 19:59
  Speaker 1: any of these people may have. Iran also has its
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: own interests. It wants to fully focus all of its
• 20:05
  Speaker 1: attention on the straight of Hormuz, where they don't have
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: to take a lot of damage and they can continue
• 20:09
  Speaker 1: to bleed the U.S. empire. The U.S. empire doesn't want
• 20:13
  Speaker 1: more conflagration really anywhere because they want energy prices to
• 20:17
  Speaker 1: remain stable. So differing interests by all of the different
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: parties in the conflict make the system dramatically more unstable
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: and make it less likely, in my opinion, that any
• 20:28
  Speaker 1: sort of stasis can come. Because even if things are
• 20:31
  Speaker 1: calm between Iran and and the Gulf, and the United States,
• 20:34
  Speaker 1: or relatively to where the war was, the Houthis continuing
• 20:38
  Speaker 1: to fire against Saudi is like the Z factor in
• 20:42
  Speaker 1: energy markets. And as you just said, if those two
• 20:44
  Speaker 1: things combine, then we're in an entirely new different energy
• 20:49
  Speaker 1: market with a lot of constraint heading into winter. We
• 20:52
  Speaker 1: just had our hurricane make landfall in the Gulf. I'm
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: sure some of you guys saw some of the damage
• 20:57
  Speaker 1: devastating for Alabama. It doesn't appear to have yet caused
• 21:01
  Speaker 1: too much damage yet to refineries but we're still early
• 21:04
  Speaker 1: relatively you know in the season and so it could
• 21:07
  Speaker 1: happen again and that's all it takes i was just
• 21:10
  Speaker 1: reading we're going to talk about midterms this morning heating
• 21:12
  Speaker 1: oil in the price of maine for this season is
• 21:15
  Speaker 1: now 80 more expensive than it was the last year
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: seriously i mean so many portions of our country specifically
• 21:23
  Speaker 1: like the very far north east uh which are more
• 21:26
  Speaker 1: off the grid still relying on heating oil or fuel
• 21:29
  Speaker 1: oil i mean it's basically just diesel i And it
• 21:31
  Speaker 1: is devastating for those households, just to bring it back
• 21:35
  Speaker 1: home here to the United States. Let's take a look
• 21:40
  Speaker 1: now at the situation between Russia and Ukraine. Now, to
• 21:43
  Speaker 1: set the stage, if you've been watching this show, you're
• 21:45
  Speaker 1: very well aware that Ukrainian strikes on Russian diesel refineries
• 21:50
  Speaker 1: has been crippling the Russian economy and has been significantly
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: tightening the diesel market in the United States. Of course,
• 21:57
  Speaker 1: the United States is the one who sells these weapons,
• 21:59
  Speaker 1: gives intelligence and supports Ukraine. Ukrainian government. And so I
• 22:03
  Speaker 1: think it was only a matter of time before Trump
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: basically woke up and realized, hey, this is a little
• 22:08
  Speaker 1: bit of a problem on top of the disastrous war
• 22:11
  Speaker 1: that I'd already launched. So with all of that, he
• 22:14
  Speaker 1: then struck a secret deal, it appears, with Russia. Let's
• 22:17
  Speaker 1: put this up here on the screen, which really set
• 22:20
  Speaker 1: off a firestorm. Here's Trump's statement that came over the weekend.
• 22:24
  Speaker 1: I have just concluded a highly successful discussion with President
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: Vladimir Putin of Russia where it was agreed that Russia
• 22:31
  Speaker 1: will immediately supply over 300,000 tons of diesel fuel to
• 22:35
  Speaker 1: the American and global marketplace, another 500,000 tons during the
• 22:39
  Speaker 1: month of November, and additionally, a million tons immediately thereafter. Additionally,
• 22:44
  Speaker 1: based on the condition of their diesel refineries, Russia will
• 22:47
  Speaker 1: then deliver within a short period of time, 3 million
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: tons of diesel. Between our total control of the Strait
• 22:53
  Speaker 1: of Hormuz and this great procurement of Russian energy, diesel
• 22:57
  Speaker 1: prices for Americans and indeed the world will be coming
• 22:59
  Speaker 1: down in record numbers and fast, lower prices for Americans,
• 23:03
  Speaker 1: especially our great farmers, ranchers, and truckers, my greatest priority.
• 23:07
  Speaker 1: This is a very big and important deal. Well, what's
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: a little funny about that is if you actually take
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: a look at the numbers, which we will now, let's
• 23:15
  Speaker 1: put B2 up here on the screen from Gregory Brew,
• 23:18
  Speaker 1: who's a fantastic energy analyst. He says, Trump's solution on
• 23:22
  Speaker 1: a diesel prices is get more diesel from Russia for
• 23:25
  Speaker 1: what it's worth on a monthly basis 300K tons equals
• 23:29
  Speaker 1: 74,000 barrels per day. The U.S. currently produces 3.6 million
• 23:35
  Speaker 1: barrels per day of diesel, of which about one third
• 23:38
  Speaker 1: is exported, coming roughly to, I don't know, a few
• 23:42
  Speaker 1: percent of what is out there. And so very clearly,
• 23:47
  Speaker 1: this was about something a lot bigger than just the
• 23:50
  Speaker 1: numbers coming from Russia. A lot of this really comes
• 23:53
  Speaker 1: down to the war in Ukraine itself. And if you
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: want to add on to the stupidity of this alleged deal,
• 23:59
  Speaker 1: let's put B3 up here on the screen. These are
• 24:02
  Speaker 1: from sanctions analysts who I follow. And so in the
• 24:06
  Speaker 1: sanctions world, everybody was kind of mystified because literally mere
• 24:10
  Speaker 1: hours before the alleged Russian diesel deal, Trump had actually
• 24:15
  Speaker 1: signed the Lindsey Graham Sanctions Act on Russia. And as
• 24:20
  Speaker 1: they write here, when Trump instructed Besson to greenlight diesel
• 24:24
  Speaker 1: imports without the authority to do so, he actually put
• 24:27
  Speaker 1: the United States Treasury and CBP in an impossible legal bind.
• 24:31
  Speaker 1: A OFAC license cannot override federal statute, OFAC being the
• 24:36
  Speaker 1: Office of Export Control, right? So Congress took that power
• 24:42
  Speaker 1: away from the Treasury in this current case, specifically enacted
• 24:47
  Speaker 1: by a blanket ban that they had passed. And so
• 24:50
  Speaker 1: even if Treasury claims that it can somehow license its
• 24:53
  Speaker 1: way through this diesel deal, any move significantly altering Russia
• 24:58
  Speaker 1: policy requires a mandatory 30-day notice to Congress and a
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: statutory freeze before taking place. So the end result is
• 25:07
  Speaker 1: that if a Russian tanker arrived on U.S. shores before
• 25:12
  Speaker 1: the election, the CBP would be legally barred from clearing
• 25:17
  Speaker 1: its cargo. So not only if the deal went through,
• 25:21
  Speaker 1: would it be a minuscule fraction of what the United
• 25:23
  Speaker 1: States already produces. But also, because Trump passed the Lindsey
• 25:27
  Speaker 1: Graham legislation and all of these other stupid Russia sanctions
• 25:31
  Speaker 1: that are currently on the books, he's not even legally
• 25:33
  Speaker 1: allowed to clear the cargo on US shores. All of
• 25:37
  Speaker 1: this demonstrates just the absolute panic that is currently in
• 25:41
  Speaker 1: the White House. Obviously, it's much more of a messaging problem,
• 25:45
  Speaker 1: both in terms of the United States and the crunch
• 25:47
  Speaker 1: currently happening for the diesel market and for farmers, which
• 25:50
  Speaker 1: is currently throwing the Midwest elections into toss-up territory. But
• 25:54
  Speaker 1: bigger picture, it just shows the sheer stupidity and lack
• 25:58
  Speaker 1: of coherence for a strategy both around Russia and Ukraine,
• 26:01
  Speaker 1: which he promised he would have done almost 18 months
• 26:03
  Speaker 1: ago at this point. But also just the stupidity also
• 26:08
  Speaker 1: of signing these sanctions bills and at the same time
• 26:11
  Speaker 1: now trying to get yourself out of this Russia and
• 26:14
  Speaker 1: Russia-Ukraine problem and trying to force some fake ceasefire at
• 26:17
  Speaker 1: the very same time.
• 26:19
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, it's got to be the most chaotic
• 26:21
  Speaker 3: foreign policy in history. You just were bragging about increasing
• 26:26
  Speaker 3: these tough sanctions on Russia. And then five seconds later,
• 26:29
  Speaker 3: you're like, oh, we did a deal with Russia. Now
• 26:32
  Speaker 3: we actually want everyone to because it's not just about us.
• 26:34
  Speaker 3: We want everyone, including the Europeans, to buy Russian diesel
• 26:37
  Speaker 3: because we're so freaked down about the price of diesel.
• 26:40
  Speaker 3: By the way, I was reading about this to soccer.
• 26:43
  Speaker 3: So apparently they've been spotted. hundreds of Iranian oil trucks
• 26:47
  Speaker 3: in Russia. And Russia's oil refining capacity has been significantly
• 26:52
  Speaker 3: diminished by Ukrainian attacks on their oil facilities. So it
• 26:57
  Speaker 3: is entirely possible that some of this oil that enters
• 27:00
  Speaker 3: the market is actually Iranian oil. So there's really no
• 27:03
  Speaker 3: way to tell the difference once it's in the market.
• 27:05
  Speaker 3: So that is also a possibility of what's happening here.
• 27:08
  Speaker 3: It does remind me of Early in the Iran war,
• 27:12
  Speaker 3: when initially because of concerns over gas prices, the Trump
• 27:17
  Speaker 3: administration actually desanctioned the Iranian oil so that that could
• 27:22
  Speaker 3: flow into the marketplace. And then they reversed themselves and
• 27:25
  Speaker 3: did the blockade of the blockade. So the whole thing
• 27:28
  Speaker 3: just smacks of complete chaos, incompetence, lack of foresight, lack
• 27:32
  Speaker 3: of planning and grasping at straws. Yeah, I think this
• 27:35
  Speaker 3: is best seen as Trump's latest attempt to sort of
• 27:37
  Speaker 3: jawbone and manipulate the market so that you don't have
• 27:40
  Speaker 3: another major increase in gas prices before the midterm elections.
• 27:45
  Speaker 3: The actual impact of this deal is probably going to
• 27:48
  Speaker 3: be minimal both here and abroad. But maybe it will
• 27:51
  Speaker 3: at least do something to help the markets stay at
• 27:54
  Speaker 3: around the $ 100 a barrel for Brent crude that we've
• 27:57
  Speaker 3: been at for a little while here.
• 27:59
  Speaker 1: Right, exactly. And that is the biggest problem around all
• 28:02
  Speaker 1: of this is that there is no coherence. You know, remember,
• 28:06
  Speaker 1: and just people know my feelings about the conflict in Ukraine.
• 28:09
  Speaker 1: I think this all should have ended a long time ago.
• 28:11
  Speaker 1: I don't think any of this is doing the world
• 28:13
  Speaker 1: good between Ukraine and Russia and the rest of the
• 28:16
  Speaker 1: entire globe, including the Europeans who themselves are paying very,
• 28:20
  Speaker 1: very high diesel price. But let's put that all aside.
• 28:24
  Speaker 1: And let's just remember that Trump had said previously, we're
• 28:27
  Speaker 1: going to stop the entire war in 24 hours. That
• 28:32
  Speaker 1: not only did not happen, he has funded the Ukrainians,
• 28:36
  Speaker 1: he has continued weapons deliveries to them. The Europeans are
• 28:40
  Speaker 1: allegedly paying for it and all of that. But in
• 28:43
  Speaker 1: the same way that we're fueling the Israel crisis in
• 28:46
  Speaker 1: Gaza about what's happened, we're fueling the war in Ukraine
• 28:49
  Speaker 1: as well. We provide them a ton of intelligence, the Pentagon,
• 28:52
  Speaker 1: And the Ukrainian security service are enmeshed like this. This
• 28:55
  Speaker 1: is a proxy war of the United States. Trump was
• 28:58
  Speaker 1: responsible for this from the day he took office, and
• 29:00
  Speaker 1: it continued to happen. We had that Anchorage summit. Literally
• 29:03
  Speaker 1: nothing happened as a result. And the Russian economy has
• 29:06
  Speaker 1: been taking a beating, which they've responded to the Ukrainians
• 29:09
  Speaker 1: by destroying as much of their energy infrastructure as possible.
• 29:12
  Speaker 1: And so this is exactly the problem, is that you
• 29:16
  Speaker 1: wake up one day and you're like, oh my God,
• 29:18
  Speaker 1: this is causing a problem. Let me panically try and
• 29:21
  Speaker 1: change things. And of course, Russia and Ukraine have their
• 29:24
  Speaker 1: own interests in this conflict. Ukrainians want to shut down
• 29:27
  Speaker 1: the Russian diesel economy because it's the lifeline of their
• 29:30
  Speaker 1: war machine. Russians want to make life as difficult and
• 29:33
  Speaker 1: impossible as possible inside of Ukraine so that the morale
• 29:37
  Speaker 1: breaks for their population. With all of that said, obviously,
• 29:40
  Speaker 1: Ukraine also wants to punish the Russian economy because it's
• 29:43
  Speaker 1: the lifeblood of the war machine. And as you can
• 29:47
  Speaker 1: all see, overnight, Ukraine actually targeted Russia's largest oil storage
• 29:52
  Speaker 1: and pumping facility, And that was also immediately met with
• 29:55
  Speaker 1: cruise missile attacks by the Russians on to Ukraine. And
• 29:59
  Speaker 1: that is what sets the stage for this alleged ceasefire.
• 30:03
  Speaker 1: So let's put B7 up here on the screen, where
• 30:06
  Speaker 1: yesterday Trump put out this statement saying, effective immediately, there
• 30:11
  Speaker 1: is an energy ceasefire in the war between Russia and Ukraine.
• 30:14
  Speaker 1: Both parties have agreed, do not break it. Thank you
• 30:17
  Speaker 1: for your attention to this matter. The attack I just
• 30:19
  Speaker 1: showed you literally happened right after that. And Trump was
• 30:23
  Speaker 1: even asked at the White House specifically about what Zelensky
• 30:27
  Speaker 1: was doing in Russia. And here's what he had to say.
• 30:29
  Speaker 1: B5 guys, let's take a listen.
• 30:31
  Speaker 5: Zelensky could have settled this war many times, many, many times.
• 30:36
  Speaker 5: And he chooses not to. It's very difficult. It's a
• 30:41
  Speaker 5: war that should have never been started. If I were president,
• 30:43
  Speaker 5: if the election weren't rigged, I would have been president,
• 30:46
  Speaker 5: and that war would have never started. But he could
• 30:49
  Speaker 5: have settled it many times, and he chose not to.
• 30:52
  Speaker 5: We said, you can do whatever you want to Russia.
• 30:54
  Speaker 5: Don't hit the refineries, because that's a world problem that's caused.
• 30:58
  Speaker 5: And he wants to make problems for the world. He
• 31:01
  Speaker 5: wants to make problems for our farmers, our ranchers, with
• 31:05
  Speaker 5: diesel fuel, because Russia supplies diesel. a large portion of
• 31:09
  Speaker 5: the diesel fuel throughout the world. And we told him,
• 31:12
  Speaker 5: do whatever you want, but don't hit the diesel fuel,
• 31:15
  Speaker 5: because there's a big problem, a big shortage. And what
• 31:17
  Speaker 5: does he do? He goes and hits the diesel fuel.
• 31:20
  Speaker 5: He can do whatever he wants, but he can't do that.
• 31:23
  Speaker 5: And you know what I suggest? I suggest they get
• 31:27
  Speaker 5: a new leader who can make a deal. because he
• 31:30
  Speaker 5: could have made many deals that, for some reason, he
• 31:32
  Speaker 5: never does. And let me go a step further. If
• 31:35
  Speaker 5: I were president, you wouldn't have ever had that war.
• 31:38
  Speaker 5: That war would have never started. There was no reason
• 31:41
  Speaker 5: that that war with Ukraine and Russia started. It started
• 31:45
  Speaker 5: due to incompetence. It should have never started. You wouldn't
• 31:48
  Speaker 5: have lost 30 percent of your country already. You've lost
• 31:52
  Speaker 5: 30 percent of your country, and you've had over a
• 31:55
  Speaker 5: million people killed. Between the two of them, over two
• 31:59
  Speaker 5: million people killed. That's a war that should have never started.
• 32:03
  Speaker 5: And I think it's time for Ukraine to get a
• 32:05
  Speaker 5: new president.
• 32:06
  Speaker 1: Time for Ukraine to get a new president. You know,
• 32:09
  Speaker 1: maybe you could have called and pressured for that a
• 32:11
  Speaker 1: while ago. By the way, Zelensky himself is not even
• 32:14
  Speaker 1: that popular in Ukraine. He's been mired in corruption scandals
• 32:18
  Speaker 1: and problems for years now. But this is only likely
• 32:22
  Speaker 1: to help him if there were to be some sort
• 32:25
  Speaker 1: Here is Zelensky's response yesterday when asked about all of
• 32:29
  Speaker 1: this and ceasefire and elections. Let's take a listen.
• 32:32
  Speaker 2: If they want energy ceasefire, we are open for this.
• 32:35
  Speaker 1: Don't attack us. Don't kill our children.
• 32:38
  Speaker 2: We will stop attack your diesel. And I think it's fair,
• 32:42
  Speaker 2: fair deal. President Trump said that we need, Ukraine needs
• 32:48
  Speaker 2: new president. So first of all, with all respect to
• 32:50
  Speaker 2: President Trump, it's up to our society, up to our
• 32:57
  Speaker 2: people to choose one or another leader. Yes, we are
• 33:02
  Speaker 2: in war and now to do elections is really difficult.
• 33:06
  Speaker 2: Not only that it goes absolutely not secured and it
• 33:12
  Speaker 2: goes out of our law, out of our constitution, but
• 33:16
  Speaker 2: the main thing is to have security infrastructure for this.
• 33:22
  Speaker 2: to give possibility people to vote.
• 33:26
  Speaker 1: Of course, it's up to.
• 33:27
  Speaker 2: Ukrainians when to vote, how to do it, and to
• 33:30
  Speaker 2: choose one or another person. But if to answer on
• 33:34
  Speaker 2: this question, I know that Putin wanted very much to
• 33:37
  Speaker 2: change the president in Ukraine.
• 33:39
  Speaker 1: I understand it.
• 33:40
  Speaker 2: And if President Trump really wants to have some changes
• 33:46
  Speaker 2: during elections, I also shared it with his team.
• 33:50
  Speaker 1: So please tell Putin.
• 33:52
  Speaker 2: Give us two months, 60 days of total ceasefire, 60 days,
• 33:59
  Speaker 2: and we will organize elections. Of course, we will be
• 34:03
  Speaker 2: ready for any choice of our people, exactly Ukrainian people.
• 34:08
  Speaker 1: So that was Zelensky's response there. I mean, Obviously, Russia
• 34:12
  Speaker 1: rejected the ceasefire. They immediately put Kyiv into a blackout.
• 34:16
  Speaker 1: Let's put B9. Here's some video that actually put from
• 34:20
  Speaker 1: Kyiv just yesterday, hours after the alleged ceasefire, where you
• 34:24
  Speaker 1: could see pretty significant blackouts across the city. Some places
• 34:29
  Speaker 1: had limited amounts of power. Many of the power stations,
• 34:31
  Speaker 1: energy infrastructure continued to be hit by Russia, including devastating
• 34:37
  Speaker 1: cruise missile attacks. I don't want to whitewash Any of this, obviously,
• 34:40
  Speaker 1: the Ukrainian attacks on the diesel and Russian ships in
• 34:43
  Speaker 1: the Black Sea and all of that had happened and
• 34:45
  Speaker 1: then diesel attacks continue. And so neither seems at interested
• 34:50
  Speaker 1: literally whatsoever. And I think what we stack this on
• 34:53
  Speaker 1: top of what's just happened with Houthis in Saudi Arabia
• 34:57
  Speaker 1: is you continue to see a United States that is
• 34:59
  Speaker 1: not in control. And losing that poll power position, it
• 35:03
  Speaker 1: really does happen very quickly. I mean in many ways
• 35:06
  Speaker 1: we weren't all that in control, but the illusion itself
• 35:09
  Speaker 1: is what mattered. And to have a direct US beneficiary
• 35:13
  Speaker 1: like Zelensky, whose entire existence is reliant on the United
• 35:17
  Speaker 1: States of America, in some ways it's like out of
• 35:19
  Speaker 1: the BB playbook. and others, is that you can kind
• 35:21
  Speaker 1: of just do what you want to do. Because in
• 35:23
  Speaker 1: the long run, they're not actually going to do anything
• 35:26
  Speaker 1: to you. I'd be remiss if I didn't mention B8,
• 35:29
  Speaker 1: because there's some threats that are currently happening behind the scenes.
• 35:33
  Speaker 1: The Trump administration is currently threatening to stop the procurement
• 35:37
  Speaker 1: system that provides Ukraine with weapons to press Kiev to
• 35:41
  Speaker 1: halt its deep strikes on Russian energy infrastructure. This happened
• 35:45
  Speaker 1: on Saturday and on Sunday, and that the U.S. is
• 35:47
  Speaker 1: lobbying the European capital's to try and end these attacks
• 35:50
  Speaker 1: on Russian oil refineries. But don't forget that at the
• 35:53
  Speaker 1: same time, just weeks ago, Trump was also openly musing
• 35:58
  Speaker 1: and is very close to approving this Patriot missile deal
• 36:01
  Speaker 1: for production inside of Ukraine as well. So there is
• 36:04
  Speaker 1: no coherent policy, nothing whatsoever behind all of this, Crystal.
• 36:10
  Speaker 5: Yeah.
• 36:10
  Speaker 3: And I mean, from the Ukrainian perspective, in a certain way,
• 36:14
  Speaker 3: they have an incentive to cause problems for us with
• 36:16
  Speaker 3: the global market as well. That keeps us engaged, that,
• 36:19
  Speaker 3: you know, could put pressure on us to put pressure
• 36:22
  Speaker 3: on on Russia to try to resolve the conflict in
• 36:24
  Speaker 3: Ukraine's favor. So they have their own incentives here. But
• 36:27
  Speaker 3: I do just want to go back to it. So
• 36:29
  Speaker 3: it's it's genuinely it's almost impossible to not grade Trump
• 36:33
  Speaker 3: on a curve because of how many insane things he
• 36:36
  Speaker 3: does literally all the time and his administration does all
• 36:39
  Speaker 3: the time. Can you imagine if any other president had
• 36:42
  Speaker 3: just invented a fake ceasefire and announced it on social media? Like,
• 36:46
  Speaker 3: that's what happened. Both Russia and Ukraine are like, this
• 36:49
  Speaker 3: is I mean, you know, Zelensky, because he's got to
• 36:51
  Speaker 3: manage his relationships, trying to be a little bit diplomatic
• 36:54
  Speaker 3: about it and be like, well, we're open to it
• 36:56
  Speaker 3: if Russia will agree. But the reality is Trump literally
• 37:00
  Speaker 3: just invented this ceasefire out of whole cloth, lied about
• 37:05
  Speaker 3: it and posted it. onto social media. That is crazy behavior.
• 37:10
  Speaker 3: And I need the media to stop being so gullible
• 37:13
  Speaker 3: too and taking his word for things when he just
• 37:15
  Speaker 3: pops off and announces things and then they just go, oh,
• 37:18
  Speaker 3: I guess there's an energy ceasefire. No, there's not. You
• 37:21
  Speaker 3: cannot believe a word that this man says. In fact,
• 37:24
  Speaker 3: if it's coming out of its mouth, it's more likely
• 37:26
  Speaker 3: that the opposite is the case versus whatever it is
• 37:30
  Speaker 3: that he's saying. So This is the behavior of an
• 37:33
  Speaker 3: insane person, of a desperate person, a person who has
• 37:36
  Speaker 3: no plan and is completely grasping at straws here because
• 37:39
  Speaker 3: he's trying to save his own political ass here ahead
• 37:42
  Speaker 3: of the midterms. Again, it goes to This idea that
• 37:46
  Speaker 3: has been floated of and Trump has pushed, I don't
• 37:48
  Speaker 3: even really care what happens in the midterms. Obviously, he
• 37:51
  Speaker 3: does care what happens in the midterms because he's doing
• 37:53
  Speaker 3: completely desperate, pathetic and insane things just to try to
• 37:58
  Speaker 3: keep the price of oil down a little bit in
• 38:00
  Speaker 3: advance of what looks to be a disastrous midterm reckoning
• 38:04
  Speaker 3: heading his way.
• 38:05
  Speaker 1: Absolutely. And, you know, you can continue to look. Diesel prices,
• 38:08
  Speaker 1: nothing is there. Also, don't forget, you know, the entire Congress,
• 38:11
  Speaker 1: the bipartisan support. of these Russia sanctions is there. You
• 38:15
  Speaker 1: already have multiple Republican senators who say Trump needs to
• 38:17
  Speaker 1: reverse course on buying any of this Russian diesel, not
• 38:21
  Speaker 1: that he would make any difference to all of us.
• 38:24
  Speaker 1: So look, no coherence, no strategy, and the world continues
• 38:28
  Speaker 1: to burn. So I guess that's a pretty good way
• 38:31
  Speaker 1: to transition to our midterms.
• 38:35
  Speaker 3: So as we get closer and closer to actual election day,
• 38:39
  Speaker 3: Trump had a pretty interesting message to his own fans
• 38:43
  Speaker 3: at a recent rally. Let's take a listen.
• 38:51
  Speaker 5: No, it's true.
• 38:52
  Speaker 1: No, there's such love.
• 38:54
  Speaker 2: It's like, like, I.
• 38:58
  Speaker 5: Mean, it's amazing. When you stand up here, it's just
• 39:03
  Speaker 5: like the love. I could say the stupidest things and
• 39:06
  Speaker 5: you'd clap. You know, I love you so much. But
• 39:10
  Speaker 5: we don't say the stupidest things. We say things of
• 39:13
  Speaker 5: common sense.
• 39:14
  Speaker 3: I could say the stupidest things and you'd all clap.
• 39:17
  Speaker 3: And then guess what, Sagar?
• 39:18
  Speaker 1: They all clap. They clapped.
• 39:21
  Speaker 3: It's absolutely incredible. Although, I mean, there are a lot
• 39:25
  Speaker 3: of signs that the diehard MAGA base has dwindled now completely.
• 39:30
  Speaker 3: to a much diminished cult-like following at this point. But
• 39:34
  Speaker 3: for those people, he's absolutely right. Anything he says, no
• 39:36
  Speaker 3: matter how contradictory, no matter how many times he said
• 39:39
  Speaker 3: he wouldn't start a new war, and then he starts
• 39:41
  Speaker 3: a new war, no matter how many promises he breaks
• 39:44
  Speaker 3: or How high the gas prices get, they will still
• 39:47
  Speaker 3: stand there and clap for whatever dumb, ridiculous shit that
• 39:49
  Speaker 3: spews out of his mouth.
• 39:51
  Speaker 1: And that's well, so that was part of what I
• 39:53
  Speaker 1: want to talk about, because for years that actually is
• 39:55
  Speaker 1: the case, right, is that it's not just about the
• 39:57
  Speaker 1: people at the rallies. It's that a lot of people are.
• 40:00
  Speaker 1: And I actually I don't know if the clap is
• 40:02
  Speaker 1: per se, but. You remember in the Biden era, the
• 40:06
  Speaker 1: I did that stickers with Biden and the I could
• 40:09
  Speaker 1: use mean tweets right now was like a real conservative meme.
• 40:13
  Speaker 1: I think with cultural power, as in, look, a lot
• 40:15
  Speaker 1: of ridiculous shit. But 2019 was a lot better than
• 40:19
  Speaker 1: the year 2023 or the year 2022. This time around,
• 40:24
  Speaker 1: you get all of that baggage and you also get
• 40:28
  Speaker 1: increasing inflation, a disastrous war and all the problems that
• 40:31
  Speaker 1: we currently have in our society. ramped up to 10.
• 40:34
  Speaker 1: I mean, I was looking at the 30-year mortgage. It's
• 40:35
  Speaker 1: like 7.2% now. It's absolutely insane. So there's a part
• 40:40
  Speaker 1: of that where I don't think it necessarily will come
• 40:42
  Speaker 1: off as insulting to people who are at the rally
• 40:45
  Speaker 1: because they're bought in. But I do think it will
• 40:48
  Speaker 1: come off dramatically insulting to a lot of previously identified, quote,
• 40:52
  Speaker 1: MAGA Republicans who were in it not for a Trump
• 40:56
  Speaker 1: cult of personality, but for various different reasons, either cultural, economic, whatever.
• 41:01
  Speaker 1: What say you? And you and I remember we've talked
• 41:04
  Speaker 1: about those anecdotes of people who were like the Trump
• 41:07
  Speaker 1: super fans, people who went around Congress and harassed members
• 41:11
  Speaker 1: of Congress who were supporting Trump's impeachment, only to now
• 41:15
  Speaker 1: come out and be like, actually, I would support Trump's impeachment.
• 41:18
  Speaker 1: People who spent like, you know, tons of their own
• 41:20
  Speaker 1: money going to Trump rallies across the country now being
• 41:24
  Speaker 1: dramatically disillusioned. When you take independent voters and even some
• 41:28
  Speaker 1: of the Trump faithful and you continue to narrow it down,
• 41:31
  Speaker 1: I don't think it comes off as strong in this
• 41:35
  Speaker 1: midterm election in the way that things continue to trend
• 41:37
  Speaker 1: than it would have previously whenever the whole Fifth Avenue point,
• 41:42
  Speaker 1: what he was trying to do was make it a
• 41:43
  Speaker 1: persecution complex around the media. It wasn't just about the people,
• 41:47
  Speaker 1: but it was also about him. There has not been
• 41:50
  Speaker 1: this part of identification of him himself with the movement,
• 41:53
  Speaker 1: I think, in quite some time. So I saw it.
• 41:56
  Speaker 1: It's a clarifying comment in terms of how the people
• 41:59
  Speaker 1: there react. But it is still also the exact type
• 42:02
  Speaker 1: of thing which could reveal the fracture, which for 10
• 42:05
  Speaker 1: years now, everyone expects to happen, but it didn't happen.
• 42:09
  Speaker 1: And of course, we still don't have evidence of that.
• 42:11
  Speaker 1: But things currently are trending in that direction from what
• 42:14
  Speaker 1: we can see right now.
• 42:16
  Speaker 3: Yeah, well, and as evidence of that, you have now
• 42:19
  Speaker 3: a race in South Carolina, which is not a done deal. Now,
• 42:24
  Speaker 3: you would certainly still bet on Darlene Graham to succeed
• 42:27
  Speaker 3: her brother, Lindsey Graham. By the way, she changed her
• 42:30
  Speaker 3: name so that she could keep the Graham name so
• 42:33
  Speaker 3: everybody would know. You didn't know that. Yeah. She changed
• 42:36
  Speaker 3: her name for political purposes so that she would be
• 42:38
  Speaker 3: connected to to Lindsey Graham in this quest for the Senate.
• 42:41
  Speaker 3: She's put into place here by Trump. literally no political
• 42:45
  Speaker 3: qualifications just because she happened to be related to Lindsey
• 42:48
  Speaker 3: Graham and Trump plucks her out. And you have this
• 42:51
  Speaker 3: very difficult year for Republicans and polls that are showing
• 42:54
  Speaker 3: things are relatively close. Let's throw in the caveats. We
• 42:57
  Speaker 3: previously had a race in South Carolina with Jamie Harrison
• 43:00
  Speaker 3: versus Lindsey Graham that also, according to the polls, was close.
• 43:03
  Speaker 3: It was not close in the end. That certainly could
• 43:05
  Speaker 3: happen here as well. So I definitely want to put
• 43:07
  Speaker 3: this out here. However, you had a debate last night
• 43:10
  Speaker 3: in South Carolina between Darlene Graham and And Annie Andrews,
• 43:14
  Speaker 3: who is the Democrat. And Darlene Graham in a very
• 43:18
  Speaker 3: red state is a lot of ways on the back
• 43:20
  Speaker 3: foot trying to defend the Trump's policies, defend the war
• 43:25
  Speaker 3: in Iran in particular. Let's go ahead and play C5
• 43:28
  Speaker 3: so we can get a sense of how all of
• 43:29
  Speaker 3: this went down.
• 43:30
  Speaker 4: Let's talk about the war and the fact that you
• 43:33
  Speaker 4: say that I just want to continue war. Let's not
• 43:35
  Speaker 4: forget how this war started under the Democrats with Iran
• 43:40
  Speaker 4: almost having a nuclear weapon.
• 43:42
  Speaker 1: Thank you.
• 43:43
  Speaker 6: No, and I do not support the war with Iran.
• 43:46
  Speaker 6: Already 21 American service members have been killed. And we
• 43:50
  Speaker 6: recently learned that eight sailors aboard the USS Abraham Lincoln
• 43:54
  Speaker 6: tried to commit suicide. We've also spent 50 billion American
• 43:57
  Speaker 6: taxpayer dollars on this war. Again, money that could have
• 44:00
  Speaker 6: been invested in our infrastructure, health care system or public
• 44:04
  Speaker 6: education system. And the war is the exact reason we
• 44:07
  Speaker 6: now have record high gas and diesel prices. Farmers are
• 44:10
  Speaker 6: getting crushed and everything costs more. My opponent is the
• 44:14
  Speaker 6: only one on this stage who had the opportunity to
• 44:16
  Speaker 6: vote to end the war. But three times in a row,
• 44:19
  Speaker 6: she voted to continue it. And several days after one
• 44:22
  Speaker 6: of those votes, she had the audacity to walk out
• 44:25
  Speaker 6: onto this stage and admit that national security isn't really
• 44:29
  Speaker 6: her thing. South Carolina, if your surgeon said that appendectomies
• 44:34
  Speaker 6: aren't really his thing, would you still hand him a scalpel?
• 44:38
  Speaker 5: No.
• 44:38
  Speaker 6: So why would we hand Darlene Graham a full term
• 44:41
  Speaker 6: in the U.S.
• 44:41
  Speaker 2: Senate?
• 44:42
  Speaker 6: She is unserious and unqualified.
• 44:44
  Speaker 4: I think that everybody wants the war in Ukraine to end.
• 44:48
  Speaker 4: We will all be safer. when the war in Ukraine ends. Again,
• 44:53
  Speaker 4: I was so proud to get the Lindsey O. Graham
• 44:56
  Speaker 4: Sanction Russia and Iran Act of 2026 passed through the Senate,
• 45:02
  Speaker 4: through the House, and signed into law by the President
• 45:04
  Speaker 4: with the overwhelming bipartisan support, 86 to 11, with the
• 45:09
  Speaker 4: help of my Senate colleagues. It gives the President tools
• 45:12
  Speaker 4: that he can use, if he so chooses, to end
• 45:16
  Speaker 4: the war through economic sanctions. So that's up to him
• 45:21
  Speaker 4: as to whether or not he wants to use it
• 45:23
  Speaker 4: or whether he wants to use something else. But I
• 45:25
  Speaker 4: think the purpose of it is to bring down the
• 45:28
  Speaker 4: gas prices and ultimately end the war. And when the
• 45:31
  Speaker 4: war ends, gas prices will fall.
• 45:34
  Speaker 1: That is true.
• 45:35
  Speaker 3: When the war ends, gas prices will fall. But you
• 45:37
  Speaker 3: can see the bind that Darlene Graham is in and
• 45:40
  Speaker 3: how even in a very red state like South Carolina, where,
• 45:43
  Speaker 3: you know, Trump is underwater as he is in almost
• 45:46
  Speaker 3: every other state, but he's a lot more popular there
• 45:48
  Speaker 3: than in most places. Annie Andrews can just straightforwardly criticize
• 45:52
  Speaker 3: the war. We shouldn't be in it. It should end.
• 45:53
  Speaker 3: This is causing all kinds of problems. It's the reason
• 45:55
  Speaker 3: why your gas prices are high. And Darlene Graham has
• 45:58
  Speaker 3: to resort to this ridiculous argument that the war somehow
• 46:01
  Speaker 3: started because of the Democrats, which I don't think literally
• 46:05
  Speaker 3: anyone will buy or believe, even the most diehard believers.
• 46:08
  Speaker 1: Darlene, your brother worked with Democrats to make sure that
• 46:11
  Speaker 1: that war continued as long as possible. But you probably
• 46:14
  Speaker 1: don't read the news enough to even know any of that.
• 46:17
  Speaker 1: And I think that's what is the most disgusting, ridiculous
• 46:21
  Speaker 1: part of all of this is that Trump uses his
• 46:24
  Speaker 1: cult of personality to push Darlene Graham over the finish
• 46:27
  Speaker 1: line in the primary, not even dramatically successfully. Emily had
• 46:31
  Speaker 1: told me that her sources in South Carolina were like, look,
• 46:35
  Speaker 1: if Darlene Graham had just lost, this would be the
• 46:37
  Speaker 1: easiest cakewalk election of all time. But now we have
• 46:41
  Speaker 1: to put $ 5 million in this race for no reason.
• 46:44
  Speaker 1: We have a limited amount of money, obviously. in the
• 46:46
  Speaker 1: finite pool. We're shoring it up for insurance purposes. As
• 46:49
  Speaker 1: you said, it's probable that she would win. I wouldn't
• 46:52
  Speaker 1: put a whole lot of money against it, but we
• 46:54
  Speaker 1: shouldn't even really be talking about it. The caveats of
• 46:57
  Speaker 1: polling and all of that remain is that in 2020,
• 47:01
  Speaker 1: this was allegedly a close race and Lindsay won by
• 47:03
  Speaker 1: some 18 points. But I just don't expect that margin.
• 47:07
  Speaker 1: And even if she does claim a victory here, the
• 47:09
  Speaker 1: fact that they had to spend money, that they got
• 47:12
  Speaker 1: national media attention, and all of that is itself drawing
• 47:16
  Speaker 1: away from much more competitive races around the country. We
• 47:20
  Speaker 1: should put, what is it, C2 up here on the screen.
• 47:24
  Speaker 1: This is the latest poll that came out from Trafalgar Group. Remember,
• 47:28
  Speaker 1: a very Republican pollster in the Texas United States Senate,
• 47:32
  Speaker 1: where they have Tallarico at 47% and Ken Paxton at 43%.
• 47:39
  Speaker 1: I mean, I just don't think that we can emphasize
• 47:41
  Speaker 1: how crazy this is because these are Republican pollsters, Trump pollsters,
• 47:46
  Speaker 1: people who are actually quite accurate in cases going back
• 47:52
  Speaker 1: to 2016. And we just have more evidence here of
• 47:57
  Speaker 1: Tallarico being up. I am looking currently at the RCP average,
• 48:02
  Speaker 1: which remember doesn't do weights. It includes partisan pollsters and
• 48:05
  Speaker 1: all of that. There is not one single poll that
• 48:09
  Speaker 1: has been released since September 14th that has Tallarico either
• 48:14
  Speaker 1: tied or that has Ken Paxton, who is leading in
• 48:19
  Speaker 1: this race. Not one. Literally every single poll released from
• 48:24
  Speaker 1: September 14th that is included currently in the RCP average
• 48:28
  Speaker 1: either has Tallarico leading, and then there is one poll
• 48:32
  Speaker 1: from UMass Lowell that has him tied. And so everybody
• 48:37
  Speaker 1: likes to talk about 2018. I covered that race extensively,
• 48:40
  Speaker 1: Beto O'Rourke. Beto O'Rourke, the hope of Texas, was that
• 48:45
  Speaker 1: he would be able to outperform what he was able
• 48:49
  Speaker 1: to show, which was roughly two to three points within
• 48:52
  Speaker 1: the margin, which made it a tight race in Texas.
• 48:56
  Speaker 1: Ted Cruz wins by about two points in the state
• 49:00
  Speaker 1: of Texas. If we then put the same supposition here
• 49:03
  Speaker 1: There is not one that has Tallarico not winning. And
• 49:07
  Speaker 1: so it's very possible. I want to be clear that
• 49:09
  Speaker 1: Republicans come home and they're like, look, we just can't
• 49:12
  Speaker 1: have a Democrat that represents us in the United States Senate.
• 49:15
  Speaker 1: I want to be clear that it's an incredibly possible scenario.
• 49:18
  Speaker 1: Ken Paxton, you wins a squeaker by 0.8 or even
• 49:22
  Speaker 1: 1.5 in a crazy universe just because so many people
• 49:26
  Speaker 1: came out to vote and there's a ton of money
• 49:28
  Speaker 1: being spent by MAGA Inc. and all of that, etc.
• 49:31
  Speaker 1: But With three weeks to go, the war getting worse,
• 49:34
  Speaker 1: diesel and all of that, where it is, I'm not
• 49:37
  Speaker 1: currently seeing it. I'm starting to really believe in a
• 49:39
  Speaker 1: Tallarico victory.
• 49:41
  Speaker 5: Yeah.
• 49:41
  Speaker 3: Well, and this is another one where Trump's intervention really
• 49:44
  Speaker 3: screwed over the Republicans because he intervenes on behalf of
• 49:48
  Speaker 3: Ken Paxton. Ken Paxton ends up winning the Republican primary
• 49:52
  Speaker 3: over John Cornyn. I don't think there's any guarantees that
• 49:55
  Speaker 3: Cornyn would have won, but I think everyone believes he
• 49:57
  Speaker 3: would have been a much stronger candidate than Paxton, who's
• 50:00
  Speaker 3: beset with all kinds of scandals. And even Trump can't
• 50:02
  Speaker 3: bring himself to like wholeheartedly endorse. He always does is like,
• 50:06
  Speaker 3: you may not like how he looks. You may not
• 50:08
  Speaker 3: like how he talks. You may not like him when
• 50:10
  Speaker 3: he does his interviews. He knows he's a dreadful candidate
• 50:13
  Speaker 3: and people don't want to hear from this guy and
• 50:15
  Speaker 3: find him morally repugnant. He's having to have his ex-wife,
• 50:18
  Speaker 3: who he cheated on, go on TV, won't even say
• 50:21
  Speaker 3: his name, but it's like, I'm going to vote for
• 50:23
  Speaker 3: the Republicans. I guess you guys should, too. Like, that's
• 50:25
  Speaker 3: the state of affairs. Um, in this race with these
• 50:28
  Speaker 3: candidates and to bring it back to South Carolina for
• 50:31
  Speaker 3: a moment, the other, the other reason why you should
• 50:33
  Speaker 3: believe that there is something real going on here. We
• 50:37
  Speaker 3: can put C7 up on the screen. This got a
• 50:38
  Speaker 3: lot of attention. This guy, Barton Swaim, uh, he was actually,
• 50:42
  Speaker 3: he's a Republican. He's from South Carolina. He was a
• 50:45
  Speaker 3: longtime speechwriter for Republican Governor Mark Sanford, including I think
• 50:49
  Speaker 3: he was an aide to him when the whole like
• 50:51
  Speaker 3: hiking the Appalachian Trail thing happened. But in any case,
• 50:55
  Speaker 3: he says, listen, it could go blue. And the reason
• 50:57
  Speaker 3: is because Annie Andrews is actually out campaigning and Darlene
• 51:00
  Speaker 3: Graham is not. She has no public events. This was
• 51:03
  Speaker 3: the only debate that they're, you know, the only remaining
• 51:06
  Speaker 3: debate that they're doing here because she is not confident
• 51:10
  Speaker 3: on her feet. So she's not out there trying to
• 51:13
  Speaker 3: earn the vote of South Carolinians. And I do just
• 51:17
  Speaker 3: think that there is this natural human disgust at the
• 51:21
  Speaker 3: fact that this was handed to her just out of
• 51:23
  Speaker 3: nepotism and not out of merit whatsoever. So we'll see
• 51:27
  Speaker 3: how that ultimately goes. But to go back to your point, Sagar,
• 51:30
  Speaker 3: about Trafalgar, like in previous cycles... Trafalgar had very different
• 51:37
  Speaker 3: polling than the sort of traditional mainstream outlets where it
• 51:41
  Speaker 3: was like, OK, you know, you would have a poll
• 51:44
  Speaker 3: that showed Democrats in range in Ohio and then Trafalgar
• 51:47
  Speaker 3: would be like, absolutely not. You're going to lose by 10.
• 51:49
  Speaker 3: And Trafalgar was right. You know, there were a lot
• 51:51
  Speaker 3: of these instances where they were picking up on something,
• 51:55
  Speaker 3: especially with regard to Trump voters that other mainstream pollsters weren't,
• 51:59
  Speaker 3: or at least that's what it looked like in the results.
• 52:02
  Speaker 3: Now their polls look very much like what the other pollsters,
• 52:06
  Speaker 3: the sort of results that the other pollsters are getting.
• 52:09
  Speaker 3: And we haven't seen as big a polling misses in
• 52:13
  Speaker 3: midterms as we have when Trump is on the ballot.
• 52:17
  Speaker 3: he seems to really be the confounding variable. That being said,
• 52:21
  Speaker 3: you never know, but that's effectively what Republicans are banking
• 52:24
  Speaker 3: on at this point is that there's some sort of
• 52:27
  Speaker 3: major polling miss going on, or maybe there's all of
• 52:32
  Speaker 3: the money that they have, the money advantage that they have,
• 52:35
  Speaker 3: maybe that pays off down the stretch, or maybe there's
• 52:37
  Speaker 3: some crazy thing that happens here in the last couple
• 52:41
  Speaker 3: of weeks that totally shifts the political narrative. But those
• 52:44
  Speaker 3: are the sort of like desperate hopes That they're down
• 52:47
  Speaker 3: to at this point when Texas is looking really bad,
• 52:51
  Speaker 3: when Democrats are not putting money into Kansas, Kansas is
• 52:54
  Speaker 3: looking very real as a possibility.
• 52:56
  Speaker 2: J.D.
• 52:56
  Speaker 3: Vance had to go and campaign in the state. A
• 52:59
  Speaker 3: bunch of former Republican governors of the state have endorsed
• 53:02
  Speaker 3: the Democrat. That one looks like it's very real. So,
• 53:06
  Speaker 3: you know. If you're looking at the concrete measures, things
• 53:08
  Speaker 3: like voter registration, things like the early vote, obviously the polling,
• 53:13
  Speaker 3: it's looking pretty grim for Republicans. And they're having to
• 53:18
  Speaker 3: hope for some unforeseen factor or act of God to
• 53:22
  Speaker 3: come in and intervene at this point.
• 53:26
  Speaker 1: That's what I continue to look at. where RCP average,
• 53:30
  Speaker 1: and like you were just talking about with Trafalgar. The
• 53:33
  Speaker 1: thing is with Trafalgar is we all knew. We were like, okay, Trafalgar,
• 53:36
  Speaker 1: you can always expect them generally to come in more
• 53:38
  Speaker 1: on the Republican side. Well, they have Tallarico by three.
• 53:41
  Speaker 1: They actually have Tallarico more bullish than some of the
• 53:44
  Speaker 1: mainstream pollsters that have even polled this race. So just
• 53:47
  Speaker 1: to show you how that works. Let's put Rasmussen as well.
• 53:51
  Speaker 1: C3 up here on the screen.
• 53:52
  Speaker 3: Another Republican pollster.
• 53:54
  Speaker 1: Another hardcore Republican pollster. pollster, a longtime staple in the
• 53:59
  Speaker 1: Trump community. Well, let's take a look here. This is
• 54:01
  Speaker 1: their Senate polling. North Carolina, Cooper plus seven. Iowa, Turek
• 54:05
  Speaker 1: plus four. Ohio, Brown plus three. These are all Democrats
• 54:08
  Speaker 1: for the record, if you're just listening. Maine, Troy Jackson,
• 54:10
  Speaker 1: plus two. Texas, Tallarico, plus one. Georgia, Ossoff, plus nine. Minnesota, Flanagan,
• 54:16
  Speaker 1: plus three. Michigan, El Sayed, plus three. Alaska, tied. South Carolina, Graham,
• 54:22
  Speaker 1: plus four. Which, by the way, if you win by
• 54:24
  Speaker 1: plus four and you previously, your brother, won it by
• 54:26
  Speaker 1: plus 18, I mean, you know, a moral victory, I guess,
• 54:28
  Speaker 1: for the Democrats, but still pretty devastating, I think, if
• 54:32
  Speaker 1: that's all it comes down to. And I think, continue
• 54:35
  Speaker 1: to look at all of these numbers and understand You know,
• 54:39
  Speaker 1: to me, it seems crazy to say, but Texas, I
• 54:43
  Speaker 1: wouldn't say it's a foregone conclusion. Republicans are going to
• 54:45
  Speaker 1: continue to fight there. But the candidate quality problems that
• 54:48
  Speaker 1: beset Ken Paxton are so devastating. I'm not so sure
• 54:51
  Speaker 1: if they can be overcome. It seems like Iowa and
• 54:55
  Speaker 1: Kansas would be the battleground where you fight and then
• 54:59
  Speaker 1: you just hope and you pray for Susan Collins to
• 55:02
  Speaker 1: do her Susan Collins thing and for Troy Jackson to
• 55:05
  Speaker 1: nuke his candidacy somehow. in Maine and that she wins
• 55:09
  Speaker 1: by some sort of a sweeper because right now it
• 55:12
  Speaker 1: seems like Maine, if they can just hold on to
• 55:14
  Speaker 1: some of the Midwest, you know, those, uh, those States.
• 55:17
  Speaker 1: And obviously I didn't even mention Nebraska. If Dan Osborne
• 55:20
  Speaker 1: also was able to pull out some sort of shock
• 55:22
  Speaker 1: victory that could throw a wrench in this entire thing.
• 55:25
  Speaker 1: But you know, they're, they're starting to have to make
• 55:27
  Speaker 1: very difficult decisions and just really pray, you know, for,
• 55:30
  Speaker 1: for some sort of a tie, a 50, 50 or something,
• 55:33
  Speaker 1: and potentially have Susan Collins. Cause otherwise they could really
• 55:36
  Speaker 1: be in big trouble, especially with Alaska, which is right there.
• 55:41
  Speaker 1: I think you've talked about this before. People do not
• 55:44
  Speaker 1: appreciate the inflation crisis in Alaska. Alaska is expensive. It's
• 55:49
  Speaker 1: expensive in normal times because everything has to be shipped
• 55:51
  Speaker 1: there and the Jones Act and all this other craziness.
• 55:54
  Speaker 1: Diesel and just general food price in Alaska is insane,
• 56:00
  Speaker 1: beyond crazy. Then you have all kinds of other confounding
• 56:04
  Speaker 1: variables that are in the state rank choice voting being
• 56:07
  Speaker 1: you know, something crazy as well. The Libertarian apparently on
• 56:10
  Speaker 1: the ballot. Things are looking very good for Mary Paltola
• 56:12
  Speaker 1: right now.
• 56:13
  Speaker 3: She shared a picture of some of the prices in
• 56:17
  Speaker 3: rural Alaska at the grocery store. And we should have
• 56:20
  Speaker 3: pulled it. It was insane. And to your point, it's
• 56:24
  Speaker 3: always more expensive there because of how difficult it is
• 56:27
  Speaker 3: to get the goods in. But it was like a
• 56:29
  Speaker 3: roll of paper towels for 20 bucks. It was absolutely crazy,
• 56:34
  Speaker 3: crazy prices. The like, Tide Pod container for $ 50. That
• 56:39
  Speaker 3: was the level of insanity that these things were. Everybody
• 56:42
  Speaker 3: was in the comments like, literally, how does anyone afford
• 56:45
  Speaker 3: to live there? How does this work out? And those
• 56:47
  Speaker 3: are the sorts of things they're facing there. Man, you
• 56:50
  Speaker 3: talked earlier about the heating oil. That is a major,
• 56:53
  Speaker 3: major issue there. You kind of go state by state
• 56:55
  Speaker 3: and you look at all of them. And in Michigan,
• 56:58
  Speaker 3: you've got issues with the tariffs. Obviously, everywhere you've got
• 57:00
  Speaker 3: issues with gas prices. Down in Texas, the Latino swing
• 57:04
  Speaker 3: has been massive, which seems to be a combination of
• 57:06
  Speaker 3: upset over the economics and also over some of the
• 57:09
  Speaker 3: mass deportation policy. There's been a real flip in terms
• 57:13
  Speaker 3: of the orientation towards the immigration policy there. So you
• 57:16
  Speaker 3: sort of go state by state and each state, Kansas, Iowa,
• 57:20
  Speaker 3: you've got the issue with farmers, with the tariffs, obviously
• 57:23
  Speaker 3: also gas prices, diesel prices. State by state, each one
• 57:26
  Speaker 3: has its own unique reason why they are so disgusted
• 57:30
  Speaker 3: with what's going on and why you could see this
• 57:32
  Speaker 3: significant flip. Let's put C4 up on the screen. I'll
• 57:36
  Speaker 3: be honest with you. I'm very, as you know, skeptical
• 57:38
  Speaker 3: of this type of polling where you ask people like, OK,
• 57:41
  Speaker 3: if this happened, how would you feel about it? Because
• 57:44
  Speaker 3: I think people are very bad at explaining why they
• 57:48
  Speaker 3: do what they do, why they vote for the candidates
• 57:50
  Speaker 3: they do, why they like the policies that they like.
• 57:53
  Speaker 3: I don't know that we have a deep understanding of
• 57:54
  Speaker 3: our own minds in that way. However, put this into
• 57:57
  Speaker 3: the pot of the sort of data we're looking at.
• 58:00
  Speaker 3: Politico wanted to get at, OK, let's say that the
• 58:03
  Speaker 3: Iran war ends. Let's say gas prices drop by a
• 58:06
  Speaker 3: dollar a gallon between now and Election Day. Is that
• 58:09
  Speaker 3: going to significantly change the political landscape? Basically, the answer
• 58:12
  Speaker 3: was no. The plurality of people in each instance, you know,
• 58:17
  Speaker 3: with the Iran war being declared that it's over, with
• 58:20
  Speaker 3: inflation going down, with gas prices down by a dollar
• 58:23
  Speaker 3: a gallon, they're like, this is not going to affect
• 58:26
  Speaker 3: my vote. And so what they're trying to get at
• 58:29
  Speaker 3: here is effectively that No October surprise is going to
• 58:32
  Speaker 3: change things that much. All of Trump's desperate, I'm going
• 58:36
  Speaker 3: to do a Russian diesel deal, and I'm going to
• 58:38
  Speaker 3: try to have some declare mission accomplished with Iran. All
• 58:42
  Speaker 3: of these things that he's trying to do may not
• 58:45
  Speaker 3: really even change the political landscape that much. And I
• 58:47
  Speaker 3: think that that's true, because if you look at, not
• 58:51
  Speaker 3: based on what people are saying in this poll, but
• 58:53
  Speaker 3: if you look back at the Kamala Harris-Donald Trump election
• 58:56
  Speaker 3: in Inflation was actually coming down at that point, and
• 58:59
  Speaker 3: yet she still was very much punished for being part
• 59:01
  Speaker 3: of the administration where prices had gone up so much.
• 59:04
  Speaker 3: So people are not going to just immediately forget all
• 59:08
  Speaker 3: of the pain that they've been put through over all
• 59:11
  Speaker 3: of these months. They're still going to continue to be
• 59:12
  Speaker 3: disgusted at the decisions that were made and the choices
• 59:14
  Speaker 3: that were made that put them in this very difficult position.
• 59:17
  Speaker 3: So in a lot of ways, I do think the
• 59:19
  Speaker 3: cake is kind of already baked at this point.
• 59:21
  Speaker 1: I think that's a great point. And I remember how
• 59:24
  Speaker 1: much we criticized this at the time. They were like, well,
• 59:27
  Speaker 1: the rate of inflation has slowed. I'm like, guys, groceries
• 59:30
  Speaker 1: is 20% more expensive than when you took office. Like,
• 59:32
  Speaker 1: shut up. You know, nobody wants to hear about the
• 59:35
  Speaker 1: decline in the rate. And yet we have seen Trumponomics
• 59:38
  Speaker 1: do the same thing as Bidenomics over time. They continue
• 59:41
  Speaker 1: to point out, they're like, well, the rate of inflation
• 59:43
  Speaker 1: actually has gone down. And they're like, well, if you
• 59:46
  Speaker 1: take out, you know, the Iran war, then actually goods
• 59:49
  Speaker 1: would be You know where it is right now. It's
• 59:51
  Speaker 1: just the same type of ridiculousness. Is gas more expensive
• 59:55
  Speaker 1: today than when you as a result of decisions you
• 59:58
  Speaker 1: made as president? Yes or no. OK, then you're going
• 1:00:00
  Speaker 1: to suffer. In fact, you're the most culpable because you
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 1: launched a war of choice and it made things much worse.
• 1:00:06
  Speaker 1: for everyday citizens. At least Biden had Russia invade Ukraine,
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 1: which was not directly his fault, where Trump decided to
• 1:00:13
  Speaker 1: do this. So you add all this together, and then
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 1: the tariffs as well, which were obviously executed disastrously, the
• 1:00:20
  Speaker 1: same chaotic type of nonsense that's proved in tremendous business
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 1: uncertainty into the market, and specifically has hurt parts of
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 1: these Midwestern and states, farming states in particular, which is
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 1: what's putting them in such a bind. I do want
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 1: to mention this. It literally just broke because it shows
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 1: the internal thinking of the Democrats. Let's guys put this
• 1:00:42
  Speaker 1: up in post-production. These are current money moves. The Democratic
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 1: Senate Majority PAC has just announced it is scrapping all
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 1: ads for North Carolina, and it is adding $ 7 million
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 1: into Ohio, $ 2. 5 million into Iowa, but look out for
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 1: this number, $ 5 million into Kansas. So if you read
• 1:01:04
  Speaker 1: between the lines, clearly the bomb in Ohio is to
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 1: shore up Sherrod Brown. So that one, they think this
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 1: is a winnable race. $ 2. 5 million to Iowa, they're like, maybe,
• 1:01:15
  Speaker 1: but we're not 100% sure. But the bomb here is
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 1: the $ 5 million in Kansas, because according to these numbers,
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 1: they're making it clear this is additional money that they're
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 1: pumping in to the state And they're making it seem,
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 1: according at least to their polling, that Kansas seems to
• 1:01:32
  Speaker 1: be more in play even than Iowa, which I would
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 1: never even predicted going into this. So look, the caveat remains,
• 1:01:39
  Speaker 1: just because these are national campaigns, $ 100 million organizations with
• 1:01:42
  Speaker 1: a lot of money, they don't always know what they're doing.
• 1:01:44
  Speaker 1: The Hillary campaign spent a billion dollars and they literally
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 1: didn't visit the state of Wisconsin, right? So it's not
• 1:01:50
  Speaker 1: exactly a one-to-one, but it shows their internal calculus and
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 1: thinking going into the final days of the election. And
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 1: it will either be, you know, incredibly smart strategic decision
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 1: or foolhardy hubris, which everybody looks back on and says,
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 1: you people are a bunch of idiots. Literally, I look
• 1:02:06
  Speaker 1: at them as 50-50 in terms of likelihood for how
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 1: we might be talking on election day.
• 1:02:12
  Speaker 3: I think what you can say about Kansas is that
• 1:02:14
  Speaker 3: both Republicans and Democrats think that it's real. Now, whether
• 1:02:18
  Speaker 3: that works out to be the case on election day,
• 1:02:21
  Speaker 3: we will have to wait and see. But You had J.D.
• 1:02:24
  Speaker 3: Vance going into the state to campaign for the Republican Marshall,
• 1:02:28
  Speaker 3: who has a lot of problems as a candidate. You know,
• 1:02:31
  Speaker 3: there's been all this stuff dug up about how aggressively
• 1:02:34
  Speaker 3: he pursued people who owed medical debt to his practice,
• 1:02:38
  Speaker 3: how he charges a higher interest rate on unpaid medical
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 3: debt than almost literally anyone that you could possibly find.
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 3: Those things have seemed to really hurt him. in the
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 3: eyes of the voters. And as I mentioned before, you've
• 1:02:50
  Speaker 3: got Republican governors who are endorsing the Democrat against him,
• 1:02:55
  Speaker 3: which is pretty wild to see too. And then the
• 1:02:58
  Speaker 3: Democrat Hamilton, he is the pastor of the largest Methodist congregation,
• 1:03:04
  Speaker 3: I think in the country, but certainly in Kansas and has,
• 1:03:07
  Speaker 3: you know, so he has a lot of sort of
• 1:03:09
  Speaker 3: credibility of being a very visible community member and being
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 3: very connected to the values that a lot of Kansans share.
• 1:03:16
  Speaker 3: So you've got a, you know, a candidate quality mismatch
• 1:03:20
  Speaker 3: and a Kansas that I didn't realize this, but Logan
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 3: has been pointing out to us has been steadily moving
• 1:03:25
  Speaker 3: a little bit more, you know, to toward the Democratic
• 1:03:27
  Speaker 3: or toward the purple side. And this perfect storm of
• 1:03:31
  Speaker 3: add on top of that, all of the problems that
• 1:03:33
  Speaker 3: farmers are facing and all of that discussed. And it
• 1:03:36
  Speaker 3: appears to have made for a situation where there is
• 1:03:38
  Speaker 3: a genuine possibility. At least Democrats think that and Republicans
• 1:03:42
  Speaker 3: seem to think that as well, judging by how they've
• 1:03:43
  Speaker 3: rushed in to try to shore up Marshall's campaign.
• 1:03:46
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, I don't know a ton about Hamilton,
• 1:03:48
  Speaker 1: but the numbers bear out for him. It's a huge,
• 1:03:51
  Speaker 1: you know, United Methodist Church, 25,000 people across nine locations,
• 1:03:55
  Speaker 1: online television services. He had a book covering Christian faith
• 1:04:00
  Speaker 1: where they had sold more than a million copies, you know,
• 1:04:03
  Speaker 1: from him and his press. I mean, that alone, if
• 1:04:06
  Speaker 1: you were to just say, like, what's the, you know,
• 1:04:09
  Speaker 1: on paper, who's the type of guy who could win
• 1:04:10
  Speaker 1: the state? That would be it, right? You know, in
• 1:04:13
  Speaker 1: a crazy election situation. And with Roger Marshall, like you said,
• 1:04:17
  Speaker 1: some of the attacks, you know, Roger Marshall, he's like
• 1:04:19
  Speaker 1: a fine candidate. He's one of these typical candidates from
• 1:04:22
  Speaker 1: a deep red state where, you know, they don't go
• 1:04:24
  Speaker 1: through all that competitive elections, you know, to the extent
• 1:04:27
  Speaker 1: that there's any oppo done. It's usually done at the
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 1: primary stage. They kind of, you know, just sit out
• 1:04:32
  Speaker 1: on an island in the Senate. They kind of, it
• 1:04:34
  Speaker 1: becomes a sinecure for them where it's not all that competitive.
• 1:04:37
  Speaker 1: These are actually the type of candidates which can be
• 1:04:39
  Speaker 1: the worst in a competitive race because they're not used
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 1: to it at all. They're not Pennsylvania. They're not Michigan.
• 1:04:45
  Speaker 1: or any of these places. So it's a bad mismatch.
• 1:04:47
  Speaker 1: You got the money problems also that are besetting them.
• 1:04:51
  Speaker 1: I don't know. It might be Kansas and Iowa. Obviously,
• 1:04:55
  Speaker 1: Texas and Maine, those are up there. Those are exciting.
• 1:04:57
  Speaker 1: Those are going to be the ones I'm going to
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 1: watch the most closely. I'm just so fascinated by the
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 1: demographic shift, whether it's big city, rural, who's going to
• 1:05:04
  Speaker 1: come in where, because that's going to be the genuine
• 1:05:07
  Speaker 1: story of the Trump era. If he loses, the people
• 1:05:10
  Speaker 1: who Republicans have been winning for 25 years.
• 1:05:13
  Speaker 1: That will be so completely insane. Like it's one thing
• 1:05:16
  Speaker 1: for the Latinos of South Texas who have, you know,
• 1:05:19
  Speaker 1: these people can't make their mind up. They're voting Hillary, Trump, Biden, Trump,
• 1:05:23
  Speaker 1: you know, like over and over again. It's one thing
• 1:05:25
  Speaker 1: for people who are a genuine swing demographic. It's a
• 1:05:28
  Speaker 1: whole other for lifelong constituencies to shift their vote entirely
• 1:05:32
  Speaker 1: and shift away the legacy of decades, really, of Republican
• 1:05:37
  Speaker 1: governance in the state. I think that would be the biggest,
• 1:05:39
  Speaker 1: most shocking story of the night for me. if we
• 1:05:41
  Speaker 1: actually start.
• 1:05:42
  Speaker 3: If there's one thing we've learned, don't take constituencies for granted.
• 1:05:45
  Speaker 3: I agree. You know, I think Democrats made this mistake
• 1:05:47
  Speaker 3: under Obama thinking young people would be solid forever, thinking
• 1:05:51
  Speaker 3: that Latinos would increasingly be vote more like African-Americans where it's,
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 3: you know, just this solid block for Democrats can't take
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 3: constituencies for granted. And that doesn't mean like all of
• 1:06:04
  Speaker 3: rural America is going to shift to the left, but
• 1:06:06
  Speaker 3: you only need we're talking about a game of inches here, right?
• 1:06:09
  Speaker 3: You only need a little bit of slippage, a little
• 1:06:12
  Speaker 3: bit of people staying home, a little bit of people
• 1:06:14
  Speaker 3: who are, you know, consider themselves independents who genuinely changed
• 1:06:18
  Speaker 3: their minds and their views to have a significant political realignment.
• 1:06:23
  Speaker 3: So we'll see if it's that sort of election or
• 1:06:24
  Speaker 3: if it's a typical midterm like blowback, we're unhappy with
• 1:06:27
  Speaker 3: the party in power, we're gonna vote for these guys
• 1:06:29
  Speaker 3: this time. And that's really, to me, the question at
• 1:06:32
  Speaker 3: this point.
• 1:06:33
  Speaker 1: I agree. I did see a Republican pollster this morning
• 1:06:36
  Speaker 1: Patrick Graffini, he's like a respected guy. He said his
• 1:06:39
  Speaker 1: base case is that the toss up races go Democrat
• 1:06:43
  Speaker 1: and at a national level, it'll be a huge problem.
• 1:06:46
  Speaker 1: But that in a lot of the deep red states
• 1:06:49
  Speaker 1: that most of the Republicans will win. I was like, huh, OK.
• 1:06:52
  Speaker 1: I mean, you know, first time I've seen anybody put
• 1:06:54
  Speaker 1: that in terms of their prediction. So I'm curious to
• 1:06:57
  Speaker 1: see if he's right, because like you said, that would
• 1:06:59
  Speaker 1: be a more normal midterm backlash as opposed to an unprecedented, 19,
• 1:07:05
  Speaker 1: I forget the year, 1932 style wipeout, something like that.
• 1:07:11
  Speaker 1: So we'll see. It's going to be very interesting.