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Columbia's Finel-Honigman on the DNC, Election Outlook (Audio) · Bloomberg Intelligence

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: You're listening to Taking Stock with Kathleen Hays and Pim
• 0:03
  Speaker 1: Box on Bloomberg Radio. No TPP has been a popular
• 0:09
  Speaker 1: slogan in chants and printed signs at the Democratic National
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: Convention because of broad opposition to the Trans Pacific Partnership
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: trade deal. It is heavily favored by President Barack Obama,
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: but it is also heavily opposed by primary loser, Senator
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: Bernie Sanders. Here to tell us more, Irene Vanelle Hanigman,
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  Speaker 1: adjunct Professor of International Affairs at Columbia University, and she
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: joins us now, Irene, thank you very much for being
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  Speaker 1: with us. UM. How is the Democratic Party going to
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  Speaker 1: reconcile the opposition to the Trans Pacific Partnership inasmuch as
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: President Obama is so heavily in favor of it, UM,
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: I think this is going to be actually a major problem.
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: Having been in the Clinton administrations in the nineties nineties,
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: I feel like we were living battles of NAFTA twenty
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: three years later with a lot of residual bitterness. Perhaps
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: we never paid attention to what the actual impact was
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: of NAFTA on particularly a small and rural areas across
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  Speaker 1: America over these decades. The problem is that Hillary Clinton,
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  Speaker 1: in many ways is now caught in a bind because
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  Speaker 1: she originally called it the gold standard. A Secretary of State,
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  Speaker 1: she promoted it. It is very much part of what
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  Speaker 1: Obama would like to see as his legacy. However, because
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: of the Sanders campaign, and what to me is even
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  Speaker 1: very odd is this is a time where both Democrats
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  Speaker 1: on the left and Republicans have voiced very strong disapproval
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  Speaker 1: of this deal, so she now appears to be completely
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  Speaker 1: against it. However, the question is how in fact will
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  Speaker 1: she be able to perhaps have to calibrate or recalibrate
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  Speaker 1: the biggest problem she faces if she cannot appear to
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  Speaker 1: be fudging on this issue, uh as she could risk
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  Speaker 1: totally losing the Sanders supporters that she does. She definitely
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  Speaker 1: needs um. I think the problem to me is that
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  Speaker 1: this is a code word, and it almost seems like
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  Speaker 1: t p P is not really understood for what it is.
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  Speaker 1: A tremendously complex trade agreement which in fact as supposed
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  Speaker 1: to promote exports and help particularly small and medium businesses,
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  Speaker 1: but in fact has simply now been equated with losing
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  Speaker 1: American jobs. And this is sort of the cry on
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  Speaker 1: both the right and the left. UM not at all
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  Speaker 1: clear how she will proceed, but I certainly do not
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  Speaker 1: see this as a topic that's going to go away.
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  Speaker 1: We just saw it explode and almost explode. Uh just
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  Speaker 1: two days ago when Terry mccauliff suddenly stated that she
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  Speaker 1: may want to rethink her position, and he was immediately
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  Speaker 1: put down by Camp Pine chair John poggested that will
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  Speaker 1: not be the case, so clearly ongoing problems. Well, I mean,
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  Speaker 1: you know, economists, the consensus view, of course is that
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  Speaker 1: trade is good for the economy, and I think that
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  Speaker 1: the more complicated question then is he yes, is it
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  Speaker 1: good for big corporations who who benefit? Is it good
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  Speaker 1: for American workers who might lose their jobs because some
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  Speaker 1: of these jobs go to the countries, and that's what
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  Speaker 1: Donald Trump has been exploiting. It also seems that since um,
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  Speaker 1: Barack Obama now is going to go on the road
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  Speaker 1: apparently for the next three months and try to help
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  Speaker 1: Hillary and other Democrats running for office. This is something
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  Speaker 1: he pushed for on his watch. So it's very tough
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  Speaker 1: for Hillary now, I think, for to shift her position.
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  Speaker 1: And where does that leave Barack Obama won't there be
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  Speaker 1: a lot of questions on the trail about this. Well,
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  Speaker 1: I am quite concerned about that. And the question is
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  Speaker 1: are they going to be able to deflect it uh
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  Speaker 1: and simply to turn it around to more mediate issues?
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  Speaker 1: And uh, you know, in a way, will Donald Trump
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  Speaker 1: continue giving them gifts of very strange, outrageous tweets Uh
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  Speaker 1: that sort of distracts them? But at the end of
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  Speaker 1: the day, yes, she is finally going to have to
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  Speaker 1: explain much more clearly why she is now specifically against it,
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  Speaker 1: uh and in a way try to square that with
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  Speaker 1: the president's position. I'm not sure how she is going
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  Speaker 1: to manage to do this. Uh. The other problem, of course,
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  Speaker 1: is that both labor unions and environmental groups that are
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  Speaker 1: a core part of the Democratic constituency have come out
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  Speaker 1: very strongly against it. Uh. So this is going to
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  Speaker 1: make the the issue even even more complex. As the
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  Speaker 1: co author of International Banking for a New Century, what
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  Speaker 1: does a Glass Stiegel Act for the twenty one century
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  Speaker 1: look like? Um? I was, you know, both amused of
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  Speaker 1: a little bit stunned when Senator Sanders made that claim
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  Speaker 1: that that should definitely be part of the platform. Again,
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  Speaker 1: I think there is an oversimplification, and this was in
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  Speaker 1: part one of the problems that Senator Senders had when
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: he came to New York during the primaries and spoke
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: about breaking up big banks. Uh, it is very unclear
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  Speaker 1: whether you can go further than what is already now
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  Speaker 1: in place, which is the Vocal rule, like in the UK,
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  Speaker 1: the Vickers Rule, which clearly separates basic banking from trading
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  Speaker 1: functions in the most basic terms. Uh, is it now
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  Speaker 1: possible to actually bring American banks back to the type
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  Speaker 1: of structure and methodology they had in the nine nineties.
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  Speaker 1: I don't think so. I think there's too much interconnectivity
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  Speaker 1: between US banks and foreign banks. Would this put US
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  Speaker 1: banks in a position of losing competitiveness? Where does this
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  Speaker 1: put foreign banks with major presence in the US. I'm
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  Speaker 1: gonna have to leave it there. Irene Vlhana would thank
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  Speaker 1: you so very much for joining us from Columbia University.
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  Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg